by Alexander Mercouris for The Duran
Whilst the Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement offers the best route to peace in Syria, and in theory gives the Syrian army the space to rebuild and to take the war to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, its success ultimately depends too much on the commitment of Turkish President Erdogan to invest too much hope in its success.
As my colleague Adam Garrie has previously reported, on 31st December 2016 the United Nations Security Council unanimously supported Resolution 2336, a Russian drafted Resolution enshrining the Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan for Syria.
Before discussing this ceasefire plan in detail, I would briefly say that it is Russia’s invariable practice to present documents of this sort to the UN Security Council, and to have them enshrined in a UN Security Council Resolution. A good example is the February 2015 Minsk II agreement, when the Russians did exactly the same thing. They also did the same thing following the abortive Syrian ceasefire agreements they negotiated with US Secretary of State John Kerry in February last year.
The reason the Russians act in this way is because firstly it is in their interest and is very much a part of their overall diplomatic strategy to emphasise the pivotal importance of the UN Security Council in the international system – so that they can better use it as a brake to restrain the US – but also because Resolutions of the UN Security Council have the authority of international law, and plans and agreements enshrined in UN Security Council Resolutions therefore carry the weight of international law. This is potentially important in the event that these plans and agreements are breached, since it means that the party which has breached these plans and agreements is violating international law and is acting illegally.
The text of Resolution 2336 is short and cursory, the actual Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan being set out in a series of documents provided by the Russian and Turkish governments to the UN Secretary General and to the President of the Security Council. These documents have not gained wide publicity and are difficult to find, so I herewith set them out in full. I would say that various documents that have up to now appeared in the media (especially in the Middle East media), leaked principally by Turkish sources, and which purport to set out the details of the Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan, were in fact drafts, which were not as of the time of their publication formally agreed. By contrast the text of the documents which I provide below is agreed by the Russian and Turkish governments, and sets out the actual ceasefire plan which the two governments have agreed
Letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
We have the honour to forward to you herewith a package of documents concerning the agreements reached today in the context of the settlement of the conflict in Syria (see annexes I-V).
We should be grateful if you would circulate the present letter and its annexes as a document of the Security Council.
Annex I to the letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
[Original: Russian]
Statement on establishing the ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic
With a view to fostering the necessary conditions for establishing a direct political dialogue among all conflicting parties in the Syrian Arab Republic, as well as reducing violence, preventing casualties among civilians and providing unhindered humanitarian access, the Russian Federation, guided by the provisions of Security Council resolution 2254 (2015), proposes to establish a ceasefire regime throughout Syria (excluding areas of combat operations against the terrorist groups Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Nusra Front) from 00:00 hours on 30 December 2016 (Damascus time).
From that time onward, all armed groups of opposing sides and their supporting forces are invited to make the following commitments:
To cease attacks with any weapons, including rockets, mortars and anti-tank guided missiles, and to cease using combat air forces;
To refrain from seizing or seeking to seize territory occupied by other parties to the ceasefire;
To use proportionate retaliatory force (only to the extent necessary for protection against an immediate threat) for self-defence purposes;
The Russian Federation urges the Government of Syria, armed opposition groups supporting a peaceful resolution of the conflict and not affiliated with international terrorist organizations, and States with an influence on the parties to the conflict, to accede to the proposed terms of the ceasefire.
Annex II to the letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
[Original: English]
Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey
Press release regarding the announcement of a country-wide ceasefire between the warring parties in Syria
Turkey has been undertaking intensive efforts to end the violence and begin the flow of humanitarian aid in Syria and for the resumption of talks between the regime and the opposition for a comprehensive political solution of the Syrian conflict.
As a result of our efforts, the warring parties in Syria have reached an understanding on a country-wide ceasefire that will go into effect at 00:00 on 30 December 2016. We welcome this development.
Terrorist organizations designated by the United Nations Security Council as such are excluded from this ceasefire.
Turkey and the Russian Federation support this understanding as guarantors.
The parties, with this understanding, are committed to cease all armed, including aerial, attacks and to refrain from expanding the territories under their control at the expense of one another.
Adherence of all parties to this ceasefire is crucial. Turkey and Russia strongly support and will jointly monitor the ceasefire.
The support of the countries with influence on the parties on the ground in sustaining the ceasefire will also be vital.
Turkey played the decisive role in completion of humanitarian evacuations in Aleppo a few days ago and in ensuring the entry of force of the country-wide ceasefire, as of tomorrow.
Hopeful that, with the full observance of the ceasefire to realize a genuine political transition, based on the Geneva communiqué and Security Council resolution 2254 (2015), the regime and the opposition will soon meet in Astana, with the presence of the guarantor countries, to take concrete steps towards revitalizing the United Nations-led political process. Turkey will continue her efforts to that end incessantly.
Annex III to the letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
[Original: Russian]
Agreement on the mechanism to record violations of the ceasefire regime declared in Syria that will take effect on 30 December 2016, and on the regime for applying sanctions to violators
The Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey,
Assuming obligations as Guarantors (in the parts designated to each) of the ceasefire regime in Syria that will take effect on 30 December 2016;
Bearing in mind that Syrian armed opposition groups (hereinafter — the Opposition) and the Government of Syria consent to the drafting and adoption of a separate document — an Agreement on the mechanism to record violations of the ceasefire regime declared in Syria that will take effect on December 2016 and on the regime for applying sanctions against violators;
Have agreed as follows:
Article 1. Joint Commission
1. The Guarantors shall establish a Joint Commission that shall serve as the main body to consider all complaints and issues related to violations of the ceasefire regime.
2. The Joint Commission:
(a) Shall administer the activities of checkpoints to monitor compliance with the ceasefire regime by parties to the Syrian crisis (hereinafter — the Parties);
(b) Shall submit proposals to the Parties to hold to account persons guilty of violating the ceasefire regime, and shall also submit proposals to the Guarantors on imposing sanctions on violating parties.
3. Russian and Turkish offices of the Joint Commission shall be located in Moscow and Ankara respectively.
The Guarantors shall establish a direct communication channel between the offices.
Article 2. Checkpoints
1. With a view to recording violations by the Parties to the ceasefire regime, the Guarantors shall establish checkpoints in residential areas in the vicinity of the actual line of contact among the Parties in order to guarantee compliance with the ceasefire regime by the Parties.
Article 3. Imposition of sanctions on violating Parties
1. The Guarantors shall undertake all possible measures to resolve differences among the Parties on compliance with the ceasefire regime and the resolution of conflicts among them.
2. Should the Parties fail to reach agreement, the Joint Commission shall send to the violating Party a demand to cease the violations and to take measures to compensate the affected Party for harm inflicted on its population and infrastructure. If the demand is not complied with, the Guarantors shall apply enforcement measures to the violating Party.
Article 4. Final Provisions
1. This Agreement is concluded for the duration of the ceasefire regime.
2. The Guarantors agree to draft and sign thereafter an expanded version of this Agreement that will elaborate on its provisions.
3. Done at Ankara on 29 December 2016 in three copies, having equal legal force, each in the Russian, Turkish and Arabic languages.
Annex IV to the letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
[Original: Russian]
Agreement on establishing delegations to launch negotiations on a political settlement aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means
The Government of the Syrian Arab Republic, having declared a ceasefire in Syria on 30 December 2016,
Confirms that there is no alternative to a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis and that there is a need to launch a political process in Syria pursuant to Security Council resolution 2254 (2015);
Acknowledging the need to fully respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic, safeguard the interests of the Syrian people, cease the bloodshed and guarantee national security, and seeking early stabilization in the country in coordination with the representatives of the Russian Federation, hereinafter — the Guarantor:
1. The Government of the Syrian Arab Republic shall commit to form a delegation, prior to 31 December 2016, to pursue negotiations on a political settlement. The Government of the Syrian Arab Republic shall determine the composition of the Delegation independently.
2. The Delegation shall begin joint work with the Delegation of the opposing side on 15 January, 2017, which shall take place in the city of Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan) with the participation of the United Nations.
3. The outcome of the joint work of both Delegations shall serve as a basis for elaborating, no later than __ _______ 2017, a road map to resolve the internal political crisis in Syria.
4. The work of both Delegations shall be conducted with the support of the Guarantor.
5. This Agreement shall enter into force at the time of signature by the plenipotentiary representative of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic and shall become legally binding provided that an agreement with similar contents to this Agreement is signed by representatives of the opposing side, with the participation of the Russian Federation. The Guarantor shall inform the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic about the signature of such an Agreement in the shortest possible time.
Subsequently, both Agreements shall be considered by the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic and the opposing side, and also by the Guarantor, as a single document regarding the establishment of delegations for the launch of negotiations on a political settlement aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means.
Done at Damascus on _ December 2016 in two copies, having equal legal force, each in the Russian and Arabic languages.
Annex V to the letter dated 29 December 2016 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and the Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Permanent Mission of Turkey to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council
[Original: Russian]
Agreement on establishing delegations to launch negotiations on a political settlement aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means
The leaders of Syrian armed opposition groups, hereinafter — the Opposition,
Support the ceasefire regime declared in Syria on 30 December 2016 and accede thereto;
Confirm that there is no alternative to a comprehensive political settlement of the Syrian crisis and that the launch of a political process in Syria must be expedited, as stipulated in the Geneva Communiqué (2012) and in Security Council resolution 2254 (2015);
Acknowledge full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic and the need to safeguard the interests of the Syrian people, cease the bloodshed and enable a State that represents all Syrian people to exercise its authority;
Declare a comprehensive commitment to swiftly stabilizing the situation in the country, with the participation of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey as Guarantors (hereinafter — the Guarantors); and
Agree as follows:
1. By 16 January 2017, the Opposition, with the direct participation of the Guarantors, shall commit to establishing a delegation to pursue negotiations on a political settlement, aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means (hereinafter — the Delegation).
The Opposition shall independently determine the composition of the Delegation.
2. The Delegation shall begin joint work with the Delegation of the opposing side, from 23 January 2017, which shall take place in the city of Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan) with the participation of the United Nations.
3. Based on the outcome of the joint work of both Delegations, a road map shall be drawn up as soon as possible to resolve the Syrian crisis.
4. The work of both Delegations shall be carried out with support of the Guarantors.
5. This Agreement shall enter into force at the time of signature by the Opposition and shall become legally binding provided that an agreement with similar contents to this Agreement is signed by a representative of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic with the participation of the Russian Federation. The Guarantors shall inform the Opposition about the signature of such an Agreement in the shortest possible time.
Subsequently, both Agreements shall be considered by the Opposition and the Government of Syria, as well as the Guarantors, as a single document — an Agreement on establishing delegations to launch negotiations on a political settlement aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means.
Done at Ankara on 29 December 2016 in three copies, having equal legal force, each in the Russian, Turkish and Arabic languages.
In order to get a better understanding of what was agreed, it is also necessary to refer to the Kremlin’s summary of a meeting held in the Kremlin on 29th December 2016 by Russian President Putin with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.
Defence Minister Shoigu was the main speaker at the meeting, a fact which incidentally confirms that the ceasefire plan is the result of negotiations between the Russian and Turkish militaries rather than between the two countries’ diplomats. On 2nd November 2016 I wrote an article for The Duran in which I pointed out that the Russian and Turkish militaries were in direct negotiation with each other, and that the Russians, having despaired of reaching agreement over Aleppo and Syria with the US, were now negotiating directly with the Turks. Here is what I said
Gerasimov is currently engaged in meetings in Moscow with General Hulusi Akar, the Chief of the Turkish military’s General Staff, who is currently visiting him in Moscow.
Having despaired of getting the US to separate Al-Qaeda/Jabhat Al-Nusra from the other Jihadis in Aleppo, and getting them to withdraw, it is likely the Russians are trying to agree the same thing with the Turks. Indeed Gerasimov’s comments today essentially say as much.
Given that the Jihadis fighting in Syria totally depend on Turkey for their supplies, if the Turkish leadership tells them to quit eastern Aleppo there is a possibility that they may finally accept that the game is up and heed the call. The same thing has after all recently happened in other Syrian towns and cities, including in the formerly Jihadi controlled suburbs of Damascus.
Note that Putin’s ultimatum is phrased differently from the way it was before.
The Kerry-Lavrov agreement of 9th September 2016 offered the non Al-Qaeda Jihadis the option of staying in eastern Aleppo after they had separated themselves from Al-Qaeda/Jabhat Al-Nusra, who the agreement implicitly required to leave.
In the subsequent discussions in the UN Security Council that took place around the proposed French Resolution, the Russians made it clear that the Al-Qaeda/Jabhat Al-Nusra was required to leave, and this was the demand the UN envoy Staffan de Mistura supposedly supported, though as I have discussed previously the terms under which he did it actually nullified it.
Now Putin through Gerasimov is demanding that all Jihadi fighters in eastern Aleppo leave, irrespective of whether they belong to Al-Qaeda/Jabhat Al-Nusra or not.
In other words over the course of the autumn, as the US has hesitated and reneged on its promises, the Russians have quietly raised their demands. They now want Aleppo totally rid of Jihadi fighters and handed over entirely to the Syrian government.
The successful Putin-Erdogan agreement to withdraw all Jihadi fighters from Aleppo, and the Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan, are the fruit of these negotiations, and show the extent to which the Russians have managed to fulfil the objectives they set themselves in the autumn.
In the meeting with Putin and Lavrov on 29th December 2016 in the Kremlin Defence Minister Shoigu explained the essence of the Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan
Sergei Shoigu: Mr President, acting on your instruction, the Defence Ministry, with Turkey acting as intermediary, spent two months in talks with leaders of the groups that make up the moderate Syrian opposition. These groups control the greater part of areas in Syria’s central and northern regions not under control of the government in Damascus. These detachments have more than 60,000 fighters. The most influential field commanders from seven opposition groups took part in the talks.
At the same time, we carried out the same work with the Syrian government. The talks made it possible for the parties to reach a common position and sign these three basic agreements that introduce a ceasefire, establish a monitoring regime, and set out procedures for organising talks on a peace settlement of the Syrian conflict.
The Defence Ministry has established a communications hotline for maintaining cooperation with Turkey, which is acting jointly with Russia as a guarantor of the ceasefire and respect for the agreements reached.
If you decide to let these agreements take effect, we are ready to guarantee the ceasefire’s introduction and organise ongoing monitoring to ensure it is respected.
I think that the conditions are in place now for a ceasefire to take effect on Syria’s territory and establish direct dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition groups that seek to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. This also creates the conditions we need to be able to reduce Russia’s military presence on Syrian territory.
Mr President, the groups with whom the talks were conducted are presented here. (Watch presentation.) They all signed these agreements this morning. In terms of their territorial location, here you see the territory under these groups’ control.
Vladimir Putin: Mr Shoigu, these seven armed opposition groups, what and who do they represent?
Sergei Shoigu: Ahrar al-Sham, for example, has 80 detachments on Syrian soil, together with military hardware, T-55 and T-72 tanks and artillery. In terms of territory, Mr President, this…
Vladimir Putin: How many armed fighters are we talking about here?
Sergei Shoigu: Sixty-two thousand armed people. Over these two months, we spent the bulk of the time on making sure that the maps indicate what we at one point asked our American colleagues to do.
Vladimir Putin: So, these groups are the core, essentially, the nucleus. They make up the main armed opposition forces.
Sergei Shoigu: Yes, Mr President. They constitute the main opposition forces.
These are the areas currently under their control. Here is Aleppo and here is Damascus, and this area is practically entirely under their control. What’s more, they have indicated the exact coordinates of locations and settlements under their control. The same goes for the central region and the situation in the districts around Damascus. Thus, we see that this area is under these detachments’ control.
We have also established a direct communications line with our Turkish colleagues, who are acting as guarantors to ensure that all terms of the agreements are respected, particularly as regards monitoring the agreements’ enforcement. The main purpose of this monitoring work is to ensure that organisations that do not cease hostilities are listed as terrorist organisations, and the same kind of action will be taken against them as is being taken against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra throughout the remaining territory.
The Al-Masdar news agency, which has connections to the Syrian military, has provided a list of the “seven armed opposition groups” that are part of the ceasefire. They are:
1. Feilak al-Sham
19 detachments, total strength: over 4,000 people.
2. Ahrar al-Sham
The full name is Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya.
Over 80 detachments, total strength: about 16,000 people.
Formations of the grouping conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Idlib, Latakia, Hama and Homs provinces.
3. Jaysh al-Islam
64 detachments, total strength: about 12,000 people.
Jaysh al-Islam formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Deir ez-Zor, Latakia, Hama and Homs provinces.
4. Thuwar al-Sham
8 battalions, total strength: about 2,500 people.
Armed formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia provinces.
5. Jaysh al-Mujahideen
13 detachments, total strength: about 8,000 people.
Armed formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo city and provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.
6. Jaysh Idlib
3 large detachments, total strength: more than 6,000 people.
Jaysh Idlib conducts combat actions in the Idlib province.
7. Jabhat al-Shamiyah
5 large detachments, total strength: about 3,000 people.
The grouping’s detachments conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Idlib and Damascus provinces.
Note that the two terrorist groups – Al-Qaeda (aka “Jabhat Al-Nusra” or “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham”) and ISIS – are specifically excluded.
There is a discrepancy between Shoigu’s numbers and those provided by Al-Masdar for the number of Jihadi fighters covered by the ceasefire. Shoigu puts the number at 62,000, whereas Al-Masdar’s cumulative total is 51,500. Almost certainly the difference is explained by their different sources of information: Shoigu is taking his numbers from the Turks and the Jihadi groups themselves, whilst Al-Masdar’s source is almost certainly the Syrian military.
The key point however is not the difference in the numbers but in the fact that Shoigu confirms that the Russians and the Turks have throughout November and December – in other words throughout the period covered by the negotiations between the two militaries which began at the beginning of November – been doing that which the US repeatedly promised to do but never did, which is delineate the areas controlled by the “moderate” Jihadis so as to distinguish them from the areas controlled by the two proscribed terrorist groups: Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In Shoigu’s words
…….with Turkey acting as intermediary, [we] spent two months in talks with leaders of the groups that make up the moderate Syrian opposition…..At the same time, we carried out the same work with the Syrian government…….Over these two months, we spent the bulk of the time on making sure that the maps indicate what we at one point asked our American colleagues to do.
(bold italics added)
Shoigu’s words to Putin also confirm something else which had already become apparent: Lavrov’s negotiations with Kerry following the collapse of the 9th September 2016 Kerry-Lavrov agreement were diplomatic shadow play. Whilst it was these fictional negotiations between Lavrov and Kerry which continued to hold the limelight, the real negotiations were going on behind the scenes between the militaries of Russia and Turkey, without the US being consulted or involved.
Moreover it is now clear from Shoigu’s words that the Turks made a political decision to come to a settlement with the Russians over Syria by October at the latest, so that the discussions which took place during November and December were of an essentially technical nature: determining what territories the groups that would be covered by the ceasefire actually controlled, getting the groups to sign up to the ceasefire plan, and agreeing the technicalities of monitoring the ceasefire and enforcing it. Most of the ceasefire plan, the text of which I have provided above, sets out the monitoring and enforcement procedures, and confirms that Turkey has agreed to guarantee the compliance of the seven groups who have signed up to it.
Turkey’s involvement in the ceasefire plan as its guarantor is the key to its success. As I said in my article of 2nd November 2016, the various Jihadi groups which operate in Syria depend on Turkey for their supplies of men and equipment. That gives Turkey immense potential leverage over them, and means that if Turkey fully commits to enforcing the ceasefire plan then the seven Jihadi groups covered by it have no choice but to comply with it.
Why did the negotiations between Russia and Turkey succeed, where the negotiations between Russia and the US were such a complete failure?
From the Russian point of view, the ceasefire has given them what they want. The overriding problem the Russians face in Syria is the limited size of the Syrian army. Since this means that the Syrian army cannot be strong everywhere – the key fact which enabled ISIS to recapture Palmyra last month – and since deploying Russian ground troops to Syria has been ruled out, Russian diplomacy since Russia’s intervention in Syria in September 2015 has been aimed at reducing the number of enemies the Syrian army has to fight so that it can concentrate its forces on its two enemies who are the most dangerous: Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
If the Russians really can get seven armed groups amounting to between 50,000 to 60,000 men to stand down, freeing the Syrian army to focus on taking the war to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, then the Syrian army’s limited resources mean it is worth doing even if two of the seven groups are Jihadi groups Russia has previously designated terrorist organisations.
In the meantime, by ensuring that Aleppo – Syria’s biggest city and its main industrial centre – is restored to the full control of the Syrian government, the Russians have not only ensured the Syrian government’s survival, removing the possibility of regime change from the agenda, but have also provided the Syrian army with a secure base in Syria’s populous coastal western regions in which it can rebuild its strength.
As for Turkey, with the prospect of regime change in Syria taken off the agenda following the restoration of the Syrian government’s authority in Aleppo, the Russian offer of a peace conference in Astana to be co-chaired by Turkey provides Turkey with a face-saving – even generous – way out of a commitment to regime change in Syria which has effectively already failed.
The peace conference in Astana is not however just a sop to Turkey. For the Turks a key provision of the ceasefire plan is that any future agreement about the future of Syria to be reached at Astana must be based – in the words of the ceasefire plan – upon “full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic”. In other words any possibility of an independent Kurdish state being carved out of Syrian territory is ruled out.
Will the plan work?
If Turkey’s commitment to the plan is the condition for its success, it is also its major weakness.
As should by now be obvious to anybody who has followed the Syrian conflict at all closely, not only has Turkish President Erdogan been personally committed up to now to achieving regime change in Syria, but he is not someone who has a habit of following through on his commitments with any degree of consistency.
Is he really prepared now to drop his plan for regime change in Syria, and to crack down on the seven Jihadi groups in Syria covered by the ceasefire if or rather when they try to break it?
Is he also prepared to ride out the inevitable violent blowback from the militant Jihadi groups that have now become embedded in Turkish society as a result of his own regime change policy in Syria, of which today’s Istanbul attack is probably merely a foretaste?
Since it is upon Erdogan that the future of this ceasefire agreement ultimately depends, it would be unwise to invest too many hopes in it.
That the Russians are not doing so is shown by the guarded comments of the participants of the Kremlin meeting on 29th December 2016. Putin pointedly referred to the ceasefire agreement as “fragile”, and though the possibility of Russian military withdrawals from Syria was discussed, none were announced.
I wonder how this fits in with the Turkish ‘fishing boat’ that had engine trouble and was disabled and had on deck an air defense gun. Looks like more duplicity on Erdogans part. Is this weapon not a danger to Russian/Syrian aircraft? The question for me is; Will the Russians keep track of this weapon and neutralize it quickly, or will it ‘disappear’ and be used by IS?
Seems that Russian authorities are now WHITEWASHING the real cause of flight RFF 7091 and the owner(s) of this blog are obviously dodging that matter.
Ask yourself again: why flight RFF 7091 did not follow a straight-line pattern by crossing Turkish airspace; instead, the flight route from Sochi to Lakatia was to evade Turkish airspace and to proceed eastbound Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq to enter Syrian airspace from the south.
http://www.jacdec.de/2016/12/25/2016-12-25-russian-military-tupolev-tu-154-crashed-into-black-sea/
Aren’t the Russian Federation and Turkey in good terms at this point in time (diplomatically speaking), considering that now that these states are supposedly sponsoring and coordinating a new cease fire in Syria.
BTW, Turkey is NATO airspace and as a military aircraft the Tu-154 would have been barred from entering that area; however, that airplane was NOT configured for military purposes, instead it was functioning as a commercial flight -thus granting the appropriate permission by Turkish authorities was feasible and logical (shortening the distance and time, and saving fuel as well).
Flight RFF 7091 was apparently configured for a specific (and unkown) military operation that needed to avoid Turkish airspace at all costs.
I propose that you undertake another crypto-Quixotic quest, which is probably up to your powers of imagination (or hallucination).
It has been said that the moon is made of cheese. Discuss.
It looks indeed like Swiss cheese. Full of holes.
Full of holes… like Isopos’ theory.
If Turkey wont able to create buffer zone from Afrin to Menbic. This will make ceasefire stronger. Otherwise more people flee from Syria into Turkey, and it means more burden for Turkey. Turkey is facing more challenge and burden of refugees is increasing.
If Turkey will able to create buffer zone from Afrin to Menbic. This will make ceasefire stronger. Otherwise more people flee from Syria into Turkey, and it means more burden for Turkey. Turkey is facing more challenge and burden of refugees is increasing.
I think Turkey would agree if Assad wont attack IDLIB. If Assad attacks to IDLIB it means (backing Iran) Assad wants to crush all groups excluding ISIS and YPG. This means Assad wants to push Syrian war inside Turkey. He repeatedly tried to do that with the help of Apoist terrorist. Apoist groups planted suicide bombers inside Turkey, and we should remind that Assad helped them.
I think there is two things mostly important for Turkey.
1. Assad should stay from IDLIB.
2. Assad should stop helping Apoist Kurds in Afrin.
If Assad has done these two above then Turkey can have an agreement with Assad.
I don’t think Mr. Erdogan is now in any position to advise President Assad what he should or should not do in his own country – do you?
“I think Turkey would agree if Assad wont attack IDLIB.”
Keep dreaming, Cesur. The SAA will liberate Idlib, earlier or later.
Erdogan is no longer gaining by increasing ambient chaos.
So bribing him to crank up the temperature again is much less feasible.
Let me see if I understand how this plays out, assuming Turks play ball. In that scenario, the ceasefire allows the Syrian government and Russians to crack down on the “jihadists” while 50,000-60,000 “moderates” look on passively.
Then what?
1. The beaten jihadists
(a) are annihilated to the last man, or
(b) they try to make a run for it, probably towards Turkey or Irak. Do they continue the fight there, or do they try to die in a blaze of glory of terrorist attacks?
2. The “moderates”
(a) accept to lay down their arms in exchange of an amnesty, if Assad is willing/forced to propose it
(b) Assad turns against them once he is finished with the “jihadists” or they don’t accept an amnesty to lay down their arms.
So, always assuming Erdogan plays ball, what is “plan B” if instead of 1a/2a we get 1b/2b?
For who point of view you want to imagine this ?
For Syrian/Assad : Doesn’t matter it give time to rebuild/retrain the army, same for rebels but in longer run a state have more time than a rebellion. / terrorist. The real danger for him is to have to much concession forced.
For Russian ?: Doesn’t matter really, the blame will go to Assad not them personally. Most of people will remember they kept Syrian from terrorist and it’s all that matter. They may dislike Assad for “betraying” them and lose a bit of reputation but that all.
For Moderate ?: Well for them is being tricky. They can’t be sure about future like you pointed out. But it’s not like they have momentum now. So it might be to get the better deal while they still have a chance. What’s the real garanties no ideas.
For Turks ?: Idk really, I suppose there main interest is that YPK doesn’t grow too much. So while they not found of Assad, and did bad thing… I don’t believe is in there interest to make the war continue (or is it so ?). About the society issue, well there no remedy. One dirty thing I have in mind is that they could provide safe heaven like that those won’t turn on them and they could use it for another rebellion few years latter… and that would be easier if they go full b option.
Now question what’s the real gain for Turks ?
Excellent article by Alexander thank you.An interesting phrase is “enforcement action to be taken against violators” …so does that apply even more to rebel groups receiving arms from elsewheres and to even those suppliers….note today China is saying it will take a more active part with Turkey in anti terrorist efforts(Sputnik article)so does that include any thoughts of participating in Syria….and UN envoy says Russia will not accept long-term occupation of Syria(Sputnik article)…..but giving time for Ankara time to sort itself out.
It will be interesting closely comparing the 7 groups against the other groups in previous peace negotiations.Personally I think that the same mechanisms or similar model as used re Minsk are being set up for Syria, it maybe the best that can be done especially as Russia really cannot persue grievances against The Ukraine for violations, especially as the OSCE seems ineffectual, but Russia seems to have put in place these re Syria and to ensure that as guarantors they are not hampered in further actions.
Interesting overview and I’m glad AM provided the primary sources so people can read them themselves.
The israelis, who are running this terror campaign through their usual proxies and proxy’s proxies, are no doubt incensed, as well as desperate, hence the current psywar business against Russia in the zio-colonies, and the increased terror attacks they’ve orchestrated show this.
I think that besides relying a lot upon turkey to come through on the agreement, a lot, though unstated, is riding upon whether the incoming trump regime will follow through on their statements on Syria and resist the greater israeli geostrategists that are behind the war crimes being perpetrated against Syria. That remains a big if, considering trump’s warm stated feelings towards these zionazi war criminals.
It is typically rare to find anyone mention the obvious involvement in this brutal invasion of Syria of the Israelis. It is in their interest to cause chaos in the region, and to rise up as the most powerful of all states, to then expand, Euphrates to Jordan, as per their own Zionist goal of Greater Israel, which is no crazed conspiracy theory but dogmatic, factually provable zeal of the leading regime in Tel Aviv. It is also where and how the region is moving…
The IDF have been supplying ISIS/ Al Qaeda and their other brand names. they have been offering medical treatment in the Golan Heights. They have been involved with the mass theft of millions of gallons of oil by the invaders. And yet we never find any mention of Israel involvement in Syria in the MSM, which it pretty much owns, as it owns the Shite House and the EU governments and is increaisngly cosy with the House of Saud…
It is brainless to believe they are merely a nearby innocent bystander. Removing the lingering Iranian Ally from Damascus is in both their interests and the interests of the House of Saud. Hence the odd partnership.
I hope this will be the year when that genocidal regime in Tel Aviv is finally revealed for what it is. Yet this seems unlikely with Trump already sucking at their teats…Which makes me fear for Iran.
When the UN Security council can approve a resolution which basically confirms Israel have broken international law with all of their Post 67 settlements and that regime can talk of this as an outrage, as an act of war, it is clear who really runs the world…Any other country and we in the West would be invading. Yet Israel are allowed to break international law, slaughter men, womenm, children, starve, bomb, torture with impunity. Indeed, how dare ANYONE tell them they are not allowed to cause millions to suffer as they please…
Good onya Gutterpoet,
I like your passion and indignation. I would only comment on your last paragraph, and the idea that the West would invade anywhere in the name of international law or morality. The only violence we invade to ‘stop’ is violence we initiate through third-parties, then swoop in with our ‘Responsibility to Protect’ to finish the job. I am going to make myself unpopular here by continuing to pull people up blaming Israel for our actions. The ‘Jews’ don’t run the world, we do (or did, have we passed that tipping point yet?) Israel does not rule America, they are our proxy and scapegoat all rolled into one. I kinda feel sorry for them, then I slap myself hard and crack open a beer to watch the moral arc of the universe boomerang back on that vile nest of vipers.
You were off to a good start but you lost it halfway through. Set the hook and then flip the conversation ?
You assert that Israel and “the Jews” don’t run the US – but you offer no evidence, just an opinion. To say “The Jews”, as you did, is so simplistic that you are building some sort of “straw man” argument and I don’t believe people here will fall for it. A few Jews, or people who call themselves Jewish – yes, they control certain things about the US.
Israel First is a fact. Two examples: 1. The 1967 attack on the USS Liberty and its continuous coverup by the highest levels of the US government, and 2. The war on Iraq cost $7 trillion (google Stiglitz and Bilmes) i.e. about 6 months of the US GDP, and this war was just one piece of the 1982 Oded Yinon Plan to smash Muslim nations, a Plan later promoted by the LIkud-funded PNAC. All US wars since 2001 are driven hard by neocons, most of whom are supposedly Jewish. These wars only serve two interests and no others: Israel’s and the American MIC. For example, Iraq was never about “the oil” since US oil companies didn’t get the oil contracts.
You imply you are an American, writing “Israel … are our proxy”. But your language reveals you are not. Americans never say “pull people up”, or “good on you”. Are you British, Israeli, or nation-of-the-day ?
It looks like trolling. I can’t imagine how you could “crack open a bottle of beer” to enjoy all this.
I understand what earthrise (an Australian, who realizes he is an unwilling part of the AZ Empire, as I am, here in Southern California) is saying and has said for many weeks, several months. Like me he probably has Jewish acquaintances and friends who are determined opponents of the Empire, I suppose. They do exist, Cosimo.
This does not negate what you are alert to. Because others may qualify the matter you are commenting on from the standpoint of a perspective you do not yet share (because you have evidently never met such Jews, and probably doubt that they could possibly exist) does not make them “trollish”.
It just makes them more appreciative of the complexity of the human condition that your model of reality may not yet fully encompass. That’s all.
Cheers Bro,
I have actually never knowing met a Jewish person. We have a very functional secular society where religion plays a very limited public role. Maybe during my time with the Greens I would have, but most of Australia’s Jews live in Melbourne. I’ve explained above I have a problem with blaming someone else for our own crimes. The ‘Jews’ didn’t make us set up Israel, we set up Israel to control ME oil. Does anyone honestly think Israel would exist if there were no oil in Arabia? Who ‘liberated’ Jerusalem in 1917? (hint, my countrymen were among them). We would have to have fought the ’67 and ’73 wars ourselves otherwise, without the diplomatic ‘legitimacy’ of Israel. Yes there are many successful Jews inside our power structure, our power structure. People are looking at the leaves.
Cosimo,
I am not refuting one word of what people say about the Tribe, it is just no longer my focus. The Israel/Palestine issue is my cause celebre, unravelling the Occupation (with the help of John Pilger) woke me up to the world. I was gutted to work out Australia plays a close role in defending and propagating that monstrosity. I have been through the phase of being angry at the Zionists; I’ve been debating this online for sixteen years. Frederick Toben, who used to live in Adelaide, taught me not to be the victim. I can’t change whatever their game is short of violence, so I am much more interested in what our fault is, what we can change. I contend that our ruling class is much bigger than the ‘Jews’, and a lot less visible. Whatever the ‘Jews’ are doing is in line with ruling class interests. I’ve said before I leave the Jewish soul to them, I worry about ours.
This lurker appreciates the maturity of your response Earthrise. It is good that the Saker has provided us such space to debate and talk things out. Both you and Cosimo have made good points.
Some articles from the last few days related to, and offering addition info on this subject (in a random order).
Moscow-Ankara Cooperation in Syria Shows Turkey’s ‘Disappointment in NATO’
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701021049203793-moscow-ankara-cooperation-syria/
“Moscow and Ankara are pursuing a joint policy in Syria, consolidating their new friendship and showing to the West that “they are not isolated,” Austrian Die Presse newspaper wrote.”
Interesting article on Syrian, Russian and other changing interests of turkey. Provides circumstantial evidence that turkey is definitely pursuing a much more independent path than previous.
‘Best Thing Turkey Can Do Now is Talk to Assad and Withdraw Forces’ From Syria
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701021049198974-turkey-syria-dialogue-assad/
“Turkey has been one of the key stakeholders in the Syrian crisis, engaged both in diplomatic efforts and military activities in the Arab country, but Professor Ilhan Uzgel told Sputnik that the best thing Ankara could do at the moment is to launch a dialogue with President Bashar al-Assad and pull its military out of northern Syria.”
With the latest agreement, this is now possible.
Russia, Turkey Reportedly Strike Daesh Positions in Northern Syria
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701021049203793-moscow-ankara-cooperation-syria/
“The Russian Aerospace Forces and the Turkish Air Force, along with Turkey’s artillery have carried out several operations against Daesh in northern Syria, Daily Sabah newspaper reported Monday.”
Russian and Turkish coordinating their attacks on israel’s terrorists. Go back a year and consider Russian-Turkish relations. Huge change. I expect more to come, too, with Turkish military coordination with israel’s pindo and [g]ato colonies gradually being replaced with closer work with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
I hope that what we are seeing in Turkey is the painful pangs of Turkey weaning NATO from itself and walking towards the light, which is a multi-polar world as proposed by Russia with more and more nations agreeing to it every day.
“Whilst it was these fictional negotiations between Lavrov and Kerry which continued to hold the limelight”
The same thought I had on the Lavrov/Kerry talks. Kerry even bought one of Lavrov’s bridges at one point – he must have been a bit dazed – and the Pentagon had to bomb Deir Ezzor to get him out of the deal.
As always, Alexander work rate and staying within the Journalistic “boundaries” never fails to impress me.
On a side note, on one of his latest post at http://theduran.com/ I did comment on this article.
http://theduran.com/putin-confounds-obama-cleverly-turning-obamas-expulsion-russian-diplomats-advantage/#comment-3079389779
Not that my comments is of outstanding quality, but merely, that one of my responses to one of the participants in the comment section, might be informative here, in terms of why, how and when i do my various depictions, in order maybe to avoid criticism based on personal assumptions etc..
Thank You
Take Care
Kent
“/…/ the real negotiations were going on behind the scenes between the militaries of Russia and Turkey, without the US being consulted or involved.”
Right! it is precisely with the Pindos totally absent that we can even speak of negotiations proper. Once the Pindos “participate”, everything is wrecked instantly. I don’t know whether mentally unstable people such as Erdogan really can think connectedly — especially in times of severe stress and strain such as these — but Turkey’s armed forces had better pay some consideration to the viability of the Turkish state, which is questionable with the country tied to the sinking and stinking mess that is the West.
Perhaps related to the sea changes we are seeing:
Israeli police investigate PM Netanyahu over corruption allegations
https://www.rt.com/news/372507-netanyahu-questioned-corruption-charges/
“Israeli police have questioned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over graft allegations, hours after the prime minister dismissed allegations of any wrongdoings.
This interrogation comprises two separate cases against the prime minister. The first, and less serious, relates to gifts Netanyahu had received from several business people, alleged to be worth hundreds of thousands of shekels.
A second, more serious case is also being built against Netanyahu, but precise details remain vague. The Israeli prime minister is no stranger to controversy, having been caught up in several scandals throughout his leadership. And if enough evidence is found to press criminal charges, he would also not be the first Israeli leader to have a run-in with the law either. His predecessor, Ehud Olmert, was found guilty of bribery and is currently serving an 18-month jail sentence, while in December 2016 former president Moshe Katsav was released from prison after serving five out of a seven years for a rape conviction.”
His, netanyahoo’s, wife is also under investigation for similar crimes. The zionazi hierarchy appears to be in some sort of state of flux. This allows openings for those on the edges of power more freedom of movement while the self-proclaimed “gods” are busy handbagging each other.
Almost all Israeli hegemons leave under a cloud, some suspected of rape, others of fraud and embezzlement, some for running off with the bottle deposit money.
Perhaps this is just the method Zionist Jews use to ensure an Israeli version of orderly transition of power. Too bad they did not institute something like it for the Obama regime.
I never heard that any arab leader was jailed of rape, corruption and so on. Does that mean that they aren’t corrupt and treat women decently?
As far as I know, the Arabs did collaborate with Nazi Germany. Some of the leaders lived after the war in Syria and Egypt.
Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, albeit deformed. Israel won in 1948 because the core of its army fought with the British against Rommel and learned to be brave soldiers. That does not mean that I like the policy of the Israeli government.
I like the outline of Alexander’s article. But I prefer to speak of the alliance between the West and the islamofascist regimes in that part of the world.
Otto Kern
“As far as I know, the Arabs did collaborate with Nazi Germany.”
So did the Zionist Jews. Your point is both a red herring and moot.
And the Arabs are, at least, Semites. Yet they have reaped none of the benefits of their status.
Khazar ‘Jews’ claimed it all.
Otto,
World leaders only get charged with anything when they fall out of favour. They are all corrupt, all have blood and 30 pieces of silver in their hands; it is the entry fee to the top tier. These days the weapon of choice is career-ending paedophilia, and many are actually guilty of it. As Franz said, Zionists and Nazis had a very close collaboration before and during the Holocaust; both wanted the Jews out of Europe and into Palestine. You cannot separate the West, Israel and the ‘Islamofascist’ regimes, they are all core members of the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Israel is the West’s point-man in the ME, giving the West deniability and a scapegoat when the time comes. When there is an almost majority inside Mandated Palestine which has been denied equal citizenship, this is not a democracy. That piece of hasbara is now dead.
I have posted earlier I look forward to Trump’s pro-Israel policy. Nothing is more dangerous to Israel’s future, let alone the ‘Jewish’ Lebensraum, than to strip all the lies away and force Israel to stand naked before the world. Like our grandparents would have said, if Israel wants a colony, make it smoke the whole pack. Try and hold the West Bank in the face of the world, you heard the applause in the SC last week, the world can’t wait to stick the boot in as soon as America’s back is turned. I have called it, Israel will be the tomb of the ‘Jewish’ people. The ‘Jewish’ population in Israel has recently topped six million people, a recurring number in their history. Watch for rising anti-Semitism (it has begun), this is the indicator that the scapegoat is being unhitched from its peg and is being pushed towards the Beast.
Appreciate all three above comments, and found myself agreeing with all of them.
I think there’s one component of Otto Kern’s argument that we are not addressing. I have heard that there are strong opposition voices in Israeli politics, and in a fair election, these leaders would win, and alter Israel’s policies, as a nation, drastically. In contrast, the Gulf monarchies offer no such straightforward political solution. (Expressed in overly simplistic terms by me!!.)
I studied the Israeli pubic for about 8 years during the 2000’s, reading all their main newspapers every day. I also always read Uri Avnery whenever he writes, as he is probably their highest-profile Zionist peace activist. Children of Light/Darkness applies originally, and probably most starkly, to the Jewish people. The Passover story (of deliverance from slavery) informs a large segment of the Jewish soul, and they passed this on to Europe during the Enlightenment. Despite all the multitude of ways Socialism has been misused, Jews played a strong hand in it’s inception, and in exposing the Truth about the class war and the Ruling Class. The original Kibbutz movement, while essentially white settlement, also put into practice communal practices a hippy might recognise. Many principled Jews work for Peace Now, B’Tselem and Machsom Watch, and some of what we know about the Occupation is due to their work. And for a while before the Second Intifada there was Israeli peace presence in their Knesset and peace looked possible, but no more.
After their politic shifted to the Right (as a result of social engineering constant threats to the populace), their fake centre-left Labor party collapsed, killing the two-state solution. Netanyahu is doing the best he can to hold the reins of four wild horses going in separate directions. All he can do it keep the tattered hasbara screen up to the world as long as he can. They have socially-engineered the Israeli population so well now, they won’t accept peace easily. Apartheid and fascism now are the paths of least resistance internally, but externally this will de-legitimise Israel. They have entered the cul-de-sac, and the hunters are now approaching. That applause in the UN last week was the bugle, the hounds have been released. There is no way out but a civil war that will tear Israel apart.
OT: It is my sad duty to report a shattering tragedy relating to the cultural heritage of Ukraine.
OUN/Bandera followers had put great pains into recreating an outdoor museum near Basivka in the Lviv oblast. The museum relates to the time of the battles between the OUN and the NKVD in 1955. Supporters had lovingly recreated the underground bunkers and passage ways, offering guided tours. It seems that a severe fire broke out and the whole thing was destroyed despite hours of heroic effort by the local fire brigade.
The site was converted from this to this. Such a massive blaze! And on Stepan Bandera’s birthday. It is almost as if someone poured kerosene everywhere and threw a match in.
How appropriate. Banderist potted history, recreated in a cat littler box… and torched… on Bandera’s birthday! Almost too good to be true.
Point of fact, Assad has continuously granted amnesty to groups that stand down and go home. Some are allowed to take personal weapons. These have been in the 50-60 numbers of groups, for several months, usually brokered by Russian military. They have announced over the months hundreds, 250-300 villages and towns that have been cleared of combatants using amnesty and stand down deals.
There is some very clever and persistent “military” diplomacy the Russians have done that goes uncredited.
Now we have this big picture of Russian and Turk militaries working out the prerequisites of the ceasefire. And news of military action coordinated against ISIS by Turks on the ground with Russian and Turk air forces.
Small steps in a great war. Russian military is shaping the battlezone for the end days of ISIS and al Nusra.
The funding and support of the groups not included in the Cease-fire should have been difinitively addressed using clear language.
Syria, Russia and Iran, must ensure that the countries, entities and individuals funding these groups whether directly or indirectly be flushed out and unmasked.
Get rhis in writing and then take this to the UNSC for a vote, thereby forcing their backers to either expose their support for terrorists or vote against them.
We all know that the:
US
Israel
UK
France
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Qater
Jordan etc. etc.
are ardent supporters of the Head Choppers, but we need to force them and their usage of terror from out of the shadows and into the glare of the International Community…
Several Syrian Rebel Groups Boycott Peace Talks Citing Ceasefire Breach
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701031049207316-syrian-rebels-boycott-peace-talks/
“Several Syrian opposition groups signed a statement declaring boycott of the upcoming political settlement talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, citing ceasefire violations, media reported Tuesday.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The rebel factions cited “large” ceasefire violations as cause for freezing of all peace efforts.
“The regime and its allies have continued firing and committed many and large violations. As these violations are continuing, the rebel factions announce… the freezing of all discussion linked to the Astana negotiations,” the statement read as quoted by BBC.”
One can be certain that these groups are israeli-american-eu mercs and terrorists, or the spokesmen are simply providing cover for special forces of the same operating in Syria. The zionazi war criminals are using these things as part of their psywar.
Yup….not clear whether these are groups actually signed up to latest ceasefire, or groups from previous parties to failed Geneva talks, or people who thought they should be included, or the usual crowd realising they are on the wrong end of a guy .Note TASS reporting yesterday German Foreign Ministry wishes-concerns That Assad’s future and presidential role(preferably a figurehead only ) should be discussed and settled at Astana even though Germany has no clue how the Geneva talks under Mistura are even connected to these new talks. Alexander Mercouris today has a follow up article re no federalisation of Syria and no agreement to change Assad.
Facebook’s sneaky way of censoring ‘fake news’ sites
http://theduran.com/facebooks-sneaky-way-censoring-fake-news-sites/
“A few weeks ago, The Duran’s Peter Lavelle wrote a very revealing piece on the draconian phenomena of ‘ghost banning’ and ways Facebook and other media are censoring what ordinary people see on their news feeds.”
See also:
Ghost Banning on Social Media – the start of systematic censorship
http://theduran.com/ghost-banning-on-social-media-the-start-of-systematic-censorship/
“There is mounting evidence alternative news providers are the targets of censorship on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and elsewhere.
We are told it is called “ghost banning” – meaning you are present, though invisible in plain sight, and the user is completely unaware. The goal is frighteningly obvious: deny an “offending” website traffic to the point that it disappears from public view. We suspect The Duran is among the many sites targeted in this new form of censorship.”
I don’t use Facebook or twitter, but the info in these two articles show how this zionazi psywar against us is a very well thought out form of mind control being used worldwide across many services. This is not just a few wonks at facebook censoring access to sites their sleazy owner ordered them to, but the beginnings of a far reaching zionazi attempt to regain total control of the narrative, again, after having lost much of that control in recent years.
Best way to fight this zionazi psywar is to expose their strategy, then boycott the services who practice it, and use those who don’t. This not only removes their control of what we access, it also hurts them economically. Equally, it helps those outfits who do not censor gain usage, so more people are able to access these sites the zionazis don’t want us knowing about.
Turkey has one big reason to adhere to this plan-
-I’ve named it repeatedly here-
-I’ve spoken of it for years at my blog
Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 which needs a great big chunk of Turkey in order to spring into existence.
Remaking the middle east and North Africa- when are people going to call it what it is rather then obfuscate it in word play?
Mercurious mentions this then pooh/poohs’ it while playing the cult of personality card-
“For the Turks a key provision of the ceasefire plan is that any future agreement about the future of Syria to be reached at Astana must be based – in the words of the ceasefire plan – upon “full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic”. In other words any possibility of an independent Kurdish state being carved out of Syrian territory is ruled out”
Since it is upon Erdogan that the future of this ceasefire agreement ultimately depends, it would be unwise to invest too many hopes in it”
An independent Kurdish state in Syria will spell the end of Syria as well as the end of Turkey as it has done Iraq in- It will guarantee increasing Israeli meddling in yet another part of Syria
Mercouris needs to do his homework :
“As my colleague Adam Garrie has previously reported, on 31st December 2016 the United Nations Security Council unanimously supported Resolution 2336, a Russian drafted Resolution enshrining the Russian-Turkish ceasefire plan for Syria”
This is actually incorrect- The Security Council voted on and supported a Modified Resolution that did Not endorse the ceasefire
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/12/un-security-council-approves-russian.html
“The final text dropped an endorsement of the Syria cease-fire agreement brokered by Moscow and Ankara, and it changed the draft to call the Astana meeting “an important step ahead of the resumption of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva on Feb. 8, 2017.”
from my blog post you head to NBC:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/syrias-suffering-families/u-n-security-council-approves-syrian-cease-fire-plan-russia-n701866
” Western members of the council had sought changes to the draft resolution circulated by Russia and Turkey during consultations Saturday morning to clarify the role of the U.N. and the meaning of the agreement brokered by Moscow and Ankara.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/31/russia-syria-ceasefire-un-security-council-damascus-kazakhstan
This is a very important fact and Mercouris missed it entirely- relying on the work of his colleague Adam Garrie.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/un-unanimously-supports-russian-turkish-efforts-to-end-conflict-in-syria-as-ceasefire-wavers
“The resolution’s final text dropped an endorsement of the Syria cease-fire agreement reached Thursday, simply taking note of it….”
Therefore the ceasefire was neither endorsed now was it enshrined
Penny,
Rather than relying on your blog and MSM press stories to support your position – wouldn’t it be better to go direct to the source?
https://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55897
” Also in the Russian-drafted resolution, the 15-member Council “takes note of” the documents issued by Russia and Turkey about the agreements the two countries have brokered, including a nationwide ceasefire and a plan to convene political talks in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, between the Syrian Government and opposition groups, in January.
The Council “looks forward to” the meeting in Astana, viewing it as “an important part of the Syrian-led political process” and “an important step ahead of the resumption of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva on 8 February 2017.”
Further in the text, the Council stressed the importance of fully implementing all relevant Security Council resolutions, particularly 2254 (2015) and 2268 (2016), which endorsed an inclusive and Syrian-led political process based on the Geneva Communiqué of 30 June 2012 as the only sustainable solution to the current Syrian crisis, now in its sixth year……”
also the full text can be viewed:
https://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/index.shtml
Alexander and Adam are correct.
You can’t just pick bits and pieces this resolution again backs the two previous resolutions too – the last one also being a ceasefire.
The MSM can twist and turn things but they can’t change the facts or get away from them……The agreement is covered by International Law.
Well done, Veritas.
Facts really help the discussions.
Many folks fail to dig for facts.
Of course, ideology hates facts. But rational thinking consumes it and requires it.
Again, thanks. Saved me the search.
Read the link Larchmonter- Veritas bolsters my claim and I thank him/her
No endorsement of the ceasefire- none
I’m waiting for the actual endorsement of the ceasefire…
“It’s easier to fool people then convince them they’ve been fooled”
Seems to be true. Sadly
The UNSC legal language on most of their Resolutions use the term “taking
note of”, or “takes note of”, and thereafter delineates the topic of the Resolution.
Use a search engine and look up any of the most famous Resolutions and you will see the terminology.
It means they have examined, discussed, and are citing the heart of the issue.
Thus, it is central to the purpose of the Resolution.
Larchmonter: I understand clearly the meaning of “take note of”
Your obfuscation isn’t clarifying, rather it’s muddying- You’re noting that it’s a term commonly used means absolutely nothing- And it certainly does not mean it’s been examined or discussed.
That’s your opinion, but, it isn’t based in reality.
I clarified the issue with an example at my blog
“The UN ‘took note of the documents’ means they acknowledge the documents exist- and it doesn’t mean anything else.
Taking note of documents does not endorse or enshrine them- Let me give you all an example?
Harkening back to the Copenhagen Accord:
Here is a Q&A on some of the most important legal questions surrounding the Copenhagen Accord.
#2- But didn’t the COP “adopt” the Copenhagen Accord at COP-15?
No. The COP “took note” of the Copenhagen Accord.
#3: What does it mean for the UNFCCC to “take note” of the Copenhagen Accord?
“Taking note” of the Accord is a way for UNFCCC parties to formally acknowledge its existence. To quote UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer, it “is a way of recognizing that something is there, but not going so far as to associate yourself with it.”
Taking note is a legal concept- It recognizes but does not endorse. Not does it enshrine.
“Taking note of documents” therefore only recognizes the presence of said documents..
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2017/01/take2-alexander-mercouris-enshrinement.html
And it does nothing more.. Wishful thinking aside
Penny, you suffer circular logic. No one can help you.
Stop vilifying everyone for your lack of intellectual honesty.
You don’t understand some things. And your arguments which otherwise might carry some validity remain flawed.
Repetition is not a winning tact.
The UNSC backs the ceasefire with its action.
It backs Minsk 2, also.
Take note of history and reality.
Larchmonter 445: You do know this is not about me, right? Why must you make it about me?
That tells me much about you and your abilities to comprehend and discuss.
Getting back to the issue, which is the error made by Mercouris- Regarding the legal definition of “taking note of the documents” The fact that the ceasefire was NOT endorsed etc.,
Lets discuss that issue, if you are capable of doing so without further muddying the water. So far it’s clear you are incapable of anything but obfuscation but I’ll give it yet another try except I’ll make it very simple for you…
If you cannot stay on point by discussing the actual matter which is the use of a legal term “Taking note of the Documents” and the error by Mercouris in claiming anything what so ever was ‘enshrined’ at the UNSC – don’t bother responding at all.
Simple enough I would say.
I hate to join the fray, I really do, but your feinting pedantry demands it.
If you are right, and you seem to revel in that hope, then the UN is not merely pedantic but also criminally aiding and abetting the ongoing crimes by the terrorist proxies of the West.
If you are wrong, then thou doth protest too much.
Which makes you wrong in any case.
Take up your case, if you keep insisting that you have one, with Mercouris.
You have belabored your shallow point here, both ad tedium and ad nauseum.
“taking note of the documents” is not an endorsement or an enshrinement of the ceasefire agreements in the passed resolution
from your own quoted information:
” Also in the Russian-drafted resolution, the 15-member Council “takes note of” the documents issued by Russia and Turkey about the agreements the two countries have brokered”
Taking note of the documents = acknowledging the presence of said documents
It is not an endorsement or an enshrinement of the agreement!
Read what is written, not what you may wish to believe is there-
Where is it written the Security Council accept and endorse the ceasefire agreement?
– It’s up to you to prove your claim, alongside Mercouris and Garrie, and all you have done is bolster mine-
Dig up the endorsement.
As for relying on my blog? I do all my own research and writing and have no reason not to rely on my own work!
By “taking note of the documents”, the UNSC has acknowledged (or, better still, recognized) its existence and mandate as legitimate under international law. It does not matter a bit that the Russian/Turk/Iranian initiative was not sponsored by the UN. The ceasefire regime, enshrined by the guarantors documents, has been recognized by the UN.
“Taking Note of ” simply means to acknowledge the existence of: to record
Therefore ““taking note of the documents” is a simple acknowledgement of the existence of said documents- and it is no more then that-
It is not an endorsement and enshrinement or anything even close to that.
Mercouris is mistaken.
Thanks, V
I used to visit the pennyforyourthoughts site, but came to realise it was professional disinfo, and stopped. No sense just handing them the data they are phishing for, let ’em work for it. :D
If one will notice, they post their adverts here when the israeli-americans are in a crisis of some sort or another. Otherwise, they stay away.
“C’est celui qui qui dit qui est” or to accuse Penny of Usraeli disinfo is outrageously funny. It only shows, either your own projections (accuse others of your own sins) or your ignorance, i.e. that you haven’t followed Penny’s blog.
That “special” Jewish zionazi owned/run zio-gay media (or msm, if you will). Always reliable – to misinform and smear.
Guardian ‘fake news’ story on Julian Assange ‘punishment for his inconvenient truth-telling’
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/372562-guardian-fake-news-story-assange/
CNN mocked for using screengrabs from Fallout 4 in Russian hacking story
https://www.rt.com/viral/372596-fallout-russian-hacking-cnn/
Washington Post latest blunder proves fake news is fine… if it involves Russia
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/372475-washington-post-fake-news-russia/
Meanwhile, the “Iraq was wmds” club apparently needs to do some rewrites of their (cough) intelligence.
Trump Says Intelligence Briefing on ‘Russian Hacking’ Delayed
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701041049241599-trump-intelligence-briefing-delayed/
“President-elect Donald Trump tweeted:
“The “Intelligence” briefing on so-called “Russian hacking” was delayed until Friday, perhaps more time needed to build a case. Very strange!”
Friday being a slow day, as people tune out, looking forward to their weekend. The zio-gays have a history of holding back negative news till Friday for that psywar reason. I guess the embarrassment needs to be buried. :D
But the zio-gays strike back against the evil disbelievers(and as zio-usual, change the goalposts):
Trump questions ‘intelligence’ behind delayed briefing on Russian hacking
https://www.rt.com/usa/372608-trump-intelligence-russian-hacking/
“After the US President-elect expressed his discontent, anonymous intelligence community sources rushed to assure CNN and NBC audiences that the briefing in question had always been planned for Friday. One of the unnamed officials even reportedly called Trump’s rant “adversarial.”
What can be done with such corruption to correct it besides a very serious clean out followed by treason trials.
‘adversarial’?
Gee golly gosh. Would this ‘unnamed official’ be engaging in sedition, perchance?
After all, they are supposed to be briefing their future commander-in-chief on ‘national’ threats….why would they attempt to characterize his perfectly legitimate observation as ‘adversarial’?
Unless they’re protecting interests that are decidedly partisan….
VT, Eimar check this interview
Schumer: Trump ‘being really dumb’ to Fight with Intel Agencies | Rachel Maddow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_cxbPUo5XA
Schumer is making a not so-veiled threat.
Seems a good time to revisit this:
http://www.michaelparenti.org/excerpt_the_jfk_assassination_defending_the_gangster_state.html
AU
Vomit.
That interview was two traitors, israelis mascarading as americans, trying to intimidate an incoming u.s. president and propagandize viewers to get them to accept a coup against trump in israel’s interests.
A certain lord ha ha was hanged for similar treason, the documented war crimes of these two, let alone their treason in the interests of a hostile foreign power in time of war, should merit them the same treatment.
Let’s wait until this Friday to hear what Trump will gonna say. I’m also aware of the history you mentioned, but maybe this time, Trump would like to have more audience at the week-end, stay tuned.
He should check out the latest from Fort Russ – he’d be a damn sight better informed.
The Turks are learning that Syria and Iraq were a shield protecting their country against Kurdish secession and jihadist terrorism. NATO not only destroyed Iraq and Syria, but has (willingly) failed to provide the protection it owes to Turkey. Instead of abiding by its founding treaty, NATO seized the opportunity to break down or weaken the regional powers of the Middle East, including one of its own treaty signatories! How treacherous, is this?
With regard to Turkey, NATO forged a double edged sword right on its backyard, that now threatens its very existence. This is the main reason for Turkey’s inconsistent behavior, as of late. It is out of good choices.
That NATO is now flirting with covert threats, directed towards its own members, is indicative of what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has become. The post-cold war version of NATO hinges, more and more, on racketeering.
And the MSM, in fictionalizing common interest out of racketeering, sums it all up…
Nailed it.
It’s naked gangsterism now.
The ‘death’ of the NATO Auditor General in Belgium is the latest ‘clue’…..
No Presidency for The Donald…it seems. Obama set to initiate hostilities at drop of a hat…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2531054/us-sends-special-forces-to-russian-border-as-nato-is-poised-to-strike-back-against-vladimir-putins-aggression/
This is an excellent read, problems mounting in the Iraqi Kurdistan “paradise”, several tough issues aren’t resolved such as huge debt, selling assets to Turkey, unpaid employees, very bad transition from family farming to oil/service market etc….a mess of different interests among the many kurds faction, civil war on the horizon as a probable reality.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/01/kurdistan-civil-war-iraq-krg-sulaimaniya-pkk-mosul-kurds.html
’Foreign intelligence services’ may be linked to Istanbul club massacre – Turkey’s deputy PM
https://www.rt.com/news/372700-foreign-intelligence-istanbul-attack/
“The New Year massacre at an Istanbul nightclub was prepared and carried out way too “professionally” to rule out the possibility that the terrorist act was supported by “foreign intelligence services,” Turkey’s deputy PM believes.”
First mention of a state security service being involved I’ve seen, I wonder if he is hinting about evidence or guessing. My guess is that it was orchestrated by the israeli-americans.
Strange ‘terrorist attacks’ in Turkey and Germany lately. The monopoly media’s video material of
– the Ambassador Karlov shooting
– the ChristmasTruck attack in Berlin, and
– the Istanbul night club attack
look all fabricated from beginning to end.
Of all the so called terrorist attacks I have been investigating over the last 15 years since 9/11, not a single ‘official’ narrative withstood a couple of minutes of preliminary research without utterly falling apart.
It is Interesting to note that, as far as Orwellian, synthetic terror is concerned, RT and Sputnik always go along with the ‘official’ Zionist script.
_smr,
I see this too, but I feel they are doing it for different reasons. Russia has been fantastic at using our own propaganda against us (going into Syria to defeat ISIS). When I see reports on RT about an attack, they highlight the openness of European borders. They also ensure that all the connecting details are displayed; found the passport, known to intelligence services. It is like they take the opportunity to use our propaganda for their own purposes; control the message. I actually hope these attacks are faked, that they would kill innocent people for their geo-political goals scorches my soul.
Maybe connected to this: MI5 Allouche group (the son of a Saudi cleric who previously headed the FSA and was almost certainly behind the chemical weapons attack at Ghouta) object to terms of ceasefire agreement:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article194833.html
Not all radical islamists are jihadist and also not all jihadists are terrorists. Terrorists are WHO use suicide bombers and indiscriminate violence in order to achive their targets. I dont understand why russian calls all radical islamists as terrorists and why they dont follow the context. They try to make all islamists as their enemy.
I found the article straight and to the point. And agree with its main conclusions. Turkey’s Erdogan has not been the most forthright of state leaders and one must look to contrasting goals, desires and so forth between the players. Putin and his folk have appeared to be thorough in their approach. Who knows? But my hopes are with them. I am kind of a novice at this ‘stuff’ … that said, I wish for Syria to survive… I wish for Russia, Iran, and the forces on that side of the global equation to survive and thrive. I am an American… not a US citizen serf. I can not countenance the level of avarice, corruption and perversion currently extant in the US Corp. At every level. We have become quite hideous over here. Who knows, maybe Trump (if he lives) will begin to make things right (er). God only knows. But God does know, the alternatives — whether a Hillary or ‘new’ Obama have been disasters.