Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)

To understand what just happened, we need to look at two things: how Russia chose to communicate her demands and then the contents of the demands themselves. However, before I do that, I want to recommend two other points of view, both of which are, in my opinion, very helpful:

Andrei Martyanov’s https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/people-asked-i-respond-on-run.html
Bernhard’s https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/russia-details-secruity-demands-to-us-and-nato.html

I recommend you read them before we continue. This being said, let’s look in more detail at just what happened.

First, this was clearly an ultimatum. Second, it was a public ultimatum.

This is absolutely crucial, as it marks, at the very least, a total break with normal Russian (and Soviet) diplomatic practice.

It is also pretty obvious that both the form and the substance of that ultimatum would be unacceptable to the USA and the US colonies in Europe.

Which begs the question: what are the Russians trying to achieve here?

Some will say that the Russians (or Putin personally) are simply stupid and that they are too arrogant to realize that their ultimatum would never be accepted. Well, if the USA (the only part of the “West” which matters because it has actual agency) ignores that ultimatum and then merrily continues on the path it has been on since at least Bill Clinton, and if the Russians (or Putin personally) do nothing, then those who believe that the Russians are stupid will be proven right.

Now let’s look at what else might happen.

The first thing we need to understand is that Russia holds all the military cards (read Martyanov for details I won’t bother repeating it all here). So let’s quickly worst case: “Biden” ignores Russia and Russia replies by deploying weapon systems, including hypersonic weapons, which will threaten the US not only in Russia, but in Belarus, the Arctic, and the mid-Atlantic. Then the US will feel the same way Moscow does: 5 minutes away from annihilation. Will that be good for “Biden”?

Let’s imagine that “Biden” decides to play tough and creates some kind of incident that will force the Russians to either sink a USN ship or shoot down a USAF aircraft. That would mean war. Here “Biden” would have two options: keep the war below the nuclear threshold and lose that war (the NATO military infrastructure would be gone) or go nuclear and risk a nuclear holocaust. Will either one of these be good for “Biden”?

Now let’s say that “Biden” agrees to negotiate with Russia (while, of course, keeping up with all the pretenses about “consulting with partners and allies”) and the two sides come to some kind of deal. How would that deal manifest itself? Well, that is quite obvious – NATO would have to give up its expansion while Russia would have to provide verifiable guarantees that she will not attack any NATO country. I know, I am skipping over a gazillion of details in which, as the expression goes, the devil lies, but for our purposes this is sufficient. Then, again, I would ask the same question as above: would that be a good outcome for “Biden”?

We need to look at this possibility even further:

First, some of the US EU vassals would be incensed and they would do two things: verbally protest as loudly as possible and engage in whatever action they could come up with to force the situation and create a crisis. And no, that would not be good for “Biden” at all. But, consider this: first, “Biden” can tell the EU vassals to shut up and behave. But even more importantly, that “bad option” will look “less bad” to “Biden” than either one of the two options mentioned above (place the entire USA 5min away from destruction or face a full-scale war).

Remember how I said that Russia holds all the military cards?

Russia also holds much stronger political and economic cards than the USA which has close to nothing. Politically, Russia is now “more than an ally” to China, she is a close partner to India (to the fury of the White House) and politically, she is much less isolated than the USA! Even the map on the right does not give the full measure of the situation. Why?

Because most of the “international community” which “supports” (well, obeys) the USA is the EU, which itself is in a terminal crisis on too many levels to count here!

Compare the red and the grey zones on the map, and ask yourself these questions: which zone has the most powerful military? Which zone has the most natural and human resources? which zone has the most promising trading routes? Which zone has a real GDP, as opposed to a purely FIRE one? Which one is literally dying spiritually under the trans-national “Woke” ideology and which one has retained the willingness and ability to fight for its spiritual, cultural, and civilizational values? Finally, which zone has a viable vision of the future?

I could go on and on with many more such questions, but I think that you see my point: the USA is not only losing militarily, but it is also losing on all fronts!

Next question: what does the USA need most?

Well, there are plenty of things the USA need, but I would single out one: time. Why? Because the truth is that the USA has only two options left: a “Kabul style” retreat from Europe or an orderly, negotiated “rearrangement” of the European collective security system (which, let’s not forget, the USA screwed up all by itself, a true disaster for which the USA is now totally responsible for).

[Sidebar: there is not such thing as unilateral security. All real security is always collective. That truism is now a dangerous political heresy in the West for which folks get (figuratively) burned at the stake for. Unilateralism is just a trigger for insecurity and, eventually, war.]

If there is no war, then NATO will survive, at least politically. If there is no war, “Biden” will be able to say that the West’s “firm and united” stance forced Russia to make concessions: remember how the Cuban missile crisis was presented by the USA as a US victory when, in fact, it forced the USA to withdraw missiles from Turkey? It has been many decades since the Cuban missile crisis, yet something like 99% of the people in the US and EU sincerely believes that the US “won”! The AngloZionist propaganda machine can easily repeat that once more. Except for a “small” problem: this time around, Russia presented her ultimatum first and made so very publicly.

Why did the Russians choose this method?

Well, I don’t know, I cannot read the Kremlin’s mind, but my guess is that Russia wants way more than just a “draw” (which is what the Cuban missile crisis was). Russia wants a full victory which she would define as “defanging NATO“, at least in Europe. Why?

Now let’s look at Russia’s options:

Do nothing aka “more of the same”: that means full surrender to the West, followed by a partition of Russia and a US attack on China. To say that this is unacceptable to Russia would be an understatement.

Gradually step down from the demands of the ultimatum: that is a more interesting one and it is again a case of “the devil is in the details”. For example, the existence of NATO by itself means nothing to Russia. Ditto for the EU, by the way. All these are in reality are irrelevant Kaffeeklatsch pretexts for politicians with no future, and countries with no agency. The biggest mistake made by both the EU and NATO was its “glorious” expansion to the East only to find out that all this achieved was irreparably weaken both the EU and NATO as the newcomers were, how shall I put it politely, quite terminally stupid, corrupt and infantile. When I listen to EU and NATO politicians, I think of a Kindergarten on crack cocaine or something equally insane (see here for a perfect example).

So one option for Russia would be to “creatively revisit” the terms of her ultimatum and then keep the substance while jettisoning the hostile tone and giving the West some symbolic “concessions”. Would that be a good option for Putin? Well, it all will depend on the mentioned “devil in details”. If at the end of the process NATO is defanged, then yes. If NATO remains as aggressively hostile as it is today, then no.

Which begs the question: what will Russia do in such a case?

Here we need to at least consider one option: a Russian recognition of the LDNR justified by Kiev’s total rejection (de facto and de jure) of the Minsk Agreements and the constant Ukronazi provocations and attacks on the LDNR: remember two things Putin said recently. He spoke of “not yet recognized republics” and he spoke of “genocide“.

“Responsibility to protect” anyone?

Of course, the Ukronazis would have to attack (even at least symbolically), which would allow Russia to make a military move against the Ukraine, free the LDNR and deploy Russian forces inside these republics, fully backed by Belarus, of course, and, possibly, even China (politically). Notice I did not say “invasion”. Let’s imagine that Russia will use her standoff weapon systems to defang the Ukies, liberate the LDNR, and then will turn to the rest of Europe with a “smile” strongly suggesting the following “which of you guys wants to be next?” This would result in a total panic in Europe, especially in Mons, Brussels, and Warsaw.

And here is the beauty of that option: Russia can easily strike Mons and Brussels (or Warsaw) with conventional weapons and leave most of these cities in mint shape. And if the EU/NATO decides to strike back, then Russia will wage a full-scale war against the EU/NATO and she will win it.

What about the “Biden” administration in such a scenario? The Pentagon knows what Russian missiles can do to it and any other military objective in the continental USA. I very much doubt that the US deep state will be willing to commit mass suicide just to try (and fail!) to protect the EU. Besides, the Russians have no intentions or capabilities, to invade the EU anyway, so why destroy the USA for a threat which does not even exist?!

Does “Biden” want to go down in history as “the President who lost Europe”?

Would “the President who triggered a nuclear holocaust” sound any better?

So by making her demands public, Russia has (for the first time and finally!!) also sent a message to the people of the West. This message can be summarized like this: we don’t want war, but if you insist, we will oblige.

And, for the first time since 1991, Russia does have the objective means to achieve these goals.

So there, we have it, I think.

Now we also need to address the elephant in the room: the US War Party and, even more so, the EU infantiles on crack cocaine. For them, defanging NATO would be utterly unacceptable…

… or would it?

The US War Party is just that, US-based. And while some of the talking heads on the idiot tube do sound like real “hawks”, the military professionals in the US armed forces know the real score. Not only that, but the “smart wing” of the War Party understands that the USA desperately needs time and an orderly draw-down, even if just a temporary one! Their game is, as I said many times, a game of what I call “nuclear chicken” but, crucially, a game short of actual nuclear war which they don’t need at all (if only because they would likely die themselves).

Which leaves the EU infantiles on crack cocaine. Here I am going to say something terrible, and I feel really bad for writing this, but I only see one method to get the Europeans back from la-la-land to the real world: Russia has to defeat them militarily, yet again, as she did over and over in her history. Somehow, the narcissistic megalomaniacs who currently administer the European continent on behalf of the USA won’t read history and won’t rein in their deep sense of racial superiority over the subhuman Russian Asiatic hordes. These modern wannabe Kulturtraegers and assorted Herrenvolk still hate Russia for defeating Hitler, Napoleon, and the rest of them, and for them, their phobia (in the sense of both hate and fear) of everything Russian is now part of their identity, something quite sacred to them and to hell with those who think otherwise!

This is what it took the last time around

The only effective way to bring the European Master Races back to reality is well-known (see picture).

I would argue that such an outcome goes directly against the interests of BOTH the USA and Russia. And, most obviously, it goes totally against the interests of the people of Europe.

But if the latter does nothing to prevent such an outcome, then it is for the USA and Russia to prevent it.

And if the USA won’t prevent it, then Russia will deliver.

As for the notion that boycotts, sanctions (even from hell!), or the cancellation of NS2 will stop the Russians – it is truly beyond ridiculous. Last time around, Russia lost 27 million people and then rebuilt her economy in a decade.

Conclusion:

This is no Russian bluff but a real ultimatum. In fact, it is so real that it was made public for two reasons I believe: first, of course, to try to appeal to the people of the West and, second, to morally “untie the hands” of Russia should it come to full-scale war.

Analysts in the West always assume that public gestures are somehow exclusively aimed at them. They are wrong. This ultimatum is also addressed to the Russian people and Russian armed forces and says this to them: “people of Russia, we tried all we could to avoid this, we pleaded and begged for decades, and we retreated on many fronts, yet in spite of that, the West keeps pressing on. We will never allow a June 22nd to happen again. Prepare for war“.

I will end with three quotes by Putin himself:

“As a citizen of Russia and the head of the Russian state I must ask myself: Why would we want a world without Russia?”

“Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first”

“Any aggressor should know that retribution will be inevitable and he will be destroyed. And since we will be the victims of his aggression, we will be going to heaven as martyrs. They will simply drop dead, won’t even have time to repent,”

UPDATE: according to the Russian media citing “diplomatic sources”, China has given her full support to the Russian demands. What that actually means or implies is unclear, but this is the first indication that the Russian ultimatum was coordinated with the Chinese and that China will have some kind of role to play in the next move of the Russians if the US rejects the Russian demands.

laodan on December 20, 2021 · at 1:51 am EST/EDT

Andrei’s analytical clarity is refreshing.

But a weakness is unfortunately tarnishing his exposé. This exposé applies indeed to a closed system that is rooted in Russia’s military positioning. I honestly don’t know if Andrei’s affirmation is right that “The first thing we need to understand is that Russia holds all the military cards”. But what I know for certain is that power in today’s world is far more complex than a matter of military dominance. Andrei somehow recognizes this himself when he states that “Russia also holds much stronger political and economic cards than the USA which has close to nothing. …”. The British and US “Build Back Better” programs are an implicit recognition of their dire socioeconomic conditions. But, and I write this in all due respect, while recognizing the reality of systemic societal complexity Andrei can’t quit the mindset of the military strategist.

I suggest that, in our era of Late-Modernity, Geopolitical strategy must necessarily encompass all internal and external societal fields.

Having followed the evolution of President Putin’s thinking over the last twenty years I observed that he made one thing abundantly clear. He thinks in terms of open systems, not only as an observer but, as an actor who learned from the Eastern practice of Judo how to seize the energy of existing forces against those who are impulsing them. President Putin has become a master at juggling with the complexity of interacting open systems. It’s a pity that Andrei did not pursue his own observation that “there are plenty of things the USA need, but I would single out one: time”. Even President Biden recognizes that the US has to rebuild its infrastructure from the ground up. But the fact is that this recognition is merely a pious wish as the US congressional actuality plainly attests. Failing to immediately rebuild, their infrastructure and superstructure, portends the fall of Western nations out of history.

In short what I mean to say here is that the present Geopolitical moment is a very special moment indeed. In my view the present moment is characterized by 5 deep trends. I gave a sketch of these in a comment on Pepe’s article “Putin and Xi plot their swift escape”. Here follows a sketch of that sketch :

1. The disintegration of the cultural, social, and economic realities in the West :
One thousand years of ever increasing individualism have left Western Europe, and its geographic extensions, in a state of societal atomization. This means that there is no shared worldview left to glue the individuals in a unified societal whole and such a society is, by definition, no longer able of any grand collective undertaking nor economically, nor militarily nor any other… The US is a living proof of this incapacity of any grand collective undertaking. Externally : Irak, Lybia, Syria, Afghanistan,. etc. Internally : 50% of the people have no financial reserves to pay for the next garage maintenance, life expectancy has been falling by nearly 2 percentage points over the last 3 years, crime is rampant and the jails are full bestowing on the US the distinction of the highest incarceration rates on earth and by far, and I could continue to extend the list of the aspects of US society that prove it is nearing its moment of truth…

2. The center of gravity of the economy-world has been shifting away from the West toward East-Asia and more particularly toward China :
This is the 8th such a shift of the center of gravity of the economy-world over the span of Modernity… What is different this time is that the center of gravity is leaving the territorial area of the Western civilization !

3. The overtaking of Western economic realities by Western finance :
Economic growth has been missing in the West since the 1970ths. What appeared as growth was merely the residue of an accumulation of debt. But after 40 years of increasing debt comes the inevitable moment of reckoning.
Creditors refuse to make new loans and then remains solely money creation, out of thin air, to finance the national enterprise including the imports of goods and services that foreign workers have been sweating to produce. This works for a short time but then comes the final reckoning… and the final reckoning will definitely come the day China refuses to supply goods against the valueless dollar… which will be seen as an act of war by the US because that inevitably means that the US population will turn against its masters…
Now note that the Russian ultimatum comes at the very particular moment that China observes that its exports to the US are paid for by paper whose value is in free fall internally in the form of hyper-inflation and externally in the form of falling exchange rates. If you think that, in such a context, the Chinese decision-makers are sheepishly waiting for better days, then I have a bridge I want to sell to you…

4. A global reset is being proposed to force humanity into a new form of feudalism :
This neofeudalism is presently being forced on Western citizens by the aristocracy of Western capital holders and their servants (the international managerial class + the highest echelons of national bureaucracies + the national elites). This reset occurs while the Western information sector is being muzzled by the US national security organizations which plunges the West in what from the outside appears like a vortex of societal madness. But could societal madness be the strategy used to sneak decisions past the eyes of Western citizens ? This societal madness acts indeed like a societal fog that hides an intense effort at engineering the consent for a new form of governance that could — soon chain Western citizens in a new social compact — and soon thereafter could chain their nations into a new Geopolitical order. Seen 1 and 2 and 3 this may seem no more than a pipe-dream. But is it really ?
Could Western elites not be preparing for the inevitability of what they sense is coming their way ? If this is the case then the madness toward Russia and China should perhaps be better understood as no more than a trial to get the most out of a negotiation where they known darn well that they have the weakest hand.

5. The predicament that we face in Late-Modernity does not relate to any one factor in isolation. What humanity faces today is a convergence of multiple crises. I call this “The Great Convergence of Late-Modernity” :
— societal atomization has wrecked the operational unity of Western nations and this is not reparable within the foreseeable future.
— economic financialization has indebted Western nations and foreign creditors want out of the financial mess.
— Western Modernity has afflicted humanity with the destruction of the habitats of most living species including its own (climate change is merely a symptom of this systematic destruction).
— Western Modernity has extracted the low hanging fruits in all resource-fields that are necessary to further run Modernity for future generations.
These crises are now also interacting and creating uncontrollable feed-back loops that threaten the survival of life on earth. President Putin, President Xi, President Biden, and the people around them have an acute understanding of all this and they are brainstorming hard to devise strategies for their societies to escape the worst of what otherwise could be a rough escape from the Berezina for their citizens.

It is in this particular context that :

— a rear guard of Western ideologues are bluffing their way forcing their madness on all nations that refuse to submit to their unilateral order. But those who lead these ideologues know full well that their order has zero chance of passing. In the meantime they are inflicting a rather unpleasant nuisance that distracts the nations, that still have a future, from the necessary tasks of our time which are : — deliverance from absolute poverty — cultural and economic development to ensure the necessary resilience for all nations to live in harmony among themselves and within nature.

— the center of gravity of the economy-world has shifted to Beijing which is consolidating its newly gained advantage by pushing an “internal circulation” model. What this means is that China is consolidating its centrality in the fields of consumption, technology and production by shadowing the flying geese pattern of development that had been coined, in the 1930s, by Kaname Akamatsu. In this model productions, that have generated sufficient profits to recuperate the investments to launch them initially, are being delocalized to the periphery of the Chinese economic space. This occurred first internally by delocalizing activities like textiles from the East to the West of China. Over the last ten years the same strategy has been in application externally toward ASEAN helping its rapid economic growth and its economic integration in the Chinese economic space. This strategy is expected to soon gain its full speed in the Eurasian nations and in Africa.

I suggest that the Russian ultimatum has to be understood in this particular context and this implies that this ultimatum is a first act in a wider strategy that is being played out, in concert by Russia and China, in order to provoke the financial and economic fall of the US.

But why pushing the US to fall precisely now ?

Well the West is de facto in a state of war with Russia and China since a few years already. What is special in the present moment in history is that “China observes that its exports to the US are paid for by paper whose value is in free fall” as I mentioned in 3 here above. Furthermore I write in 1 and 4 are also at play but we have no way of knowing what is being said in the discussions between those who are in “the know” on each sides of the negotiations. Finally the scientific community is launching ever more strident calls for action to the political decision-makers to halt what they see as the extermination of life on earth.

So all these forces are reaching peak catalysis in the present moment. This is why pushing the US to fall precisely now has the best chances to succeed.

202 Comments

Laurent on December 19, 2021 · at 6:28 pm EST/EDT

The thing I don’t figure out is why Russia is doing this now.
There is a risk in giving an ultimatum. If the other side rejects this ultimatum (and the possibility is real) then Russia will have to react and will have to switch from diplomacy to military arguments. If the ultimatum will be rejected it will inevitably lead to much worse bilateral relations and tensions never seen since 1962. Time is on Russia’s side (each year Russia becomes more powerful militarily) so why taking the risk to dramatically escalate everything now?
The only reason I see is that with the current path Russia considers a clash as inevitable and they see their ultimatum as the only real possibility to avoid a conflict in the near future. The positive side of the ultimatum is that if it’s a success then the risk of war will be substantially reduced. The negative side is that if the ultimatum will be rejected then war will become even more likely and may start even sooner.
- Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 12:22 am EST/EDT
  
  Why? Well, we definitely don’t know the answer to that because it’s a secret. But we can guess. And my guess is that Russia knows something: that, essentially, the US is much weaker than anyone in the US thinks and waiting any longer will leave the world in an untenable situation. Thus, Russia is eager to get these deals signed ASAP, while there is still someone in Washington who can hold a pen. And the last useful thing that Washington can do is, essentially, disband NATO (which is what signing Russia’s ultimatum would essentially accomplish).
  
  I’ve written about all of this before, and it goes like this:
  • A situation where offering a million dollars for a book of matches gets you a punch to the face
  • No access to imports of any sort within the (former) US because there is no longer a credit mechanism for funding trade; no functioning utilities or transportation networks; a new economy based on looting and barter.
  • My “Five Stages of Collapse” in chorus with 4-part harmony while Russia and China do their best to keep US nuclear and bioterror installations and facilities under control while repatriating their nationals and providing a bit of humanitarian aid to those who cooperate with them.
  
  Look at the title of this article: it contains the word “ultimatum” for a really excellent reason. Russia is not negotiating; Russia is spelling out how it will all go down, either voluntarily or involuntarily, and that last bit is all that’s left to decide. But while the ultimatum is as public as possible, its implementation will be as secretive as possible. Essentially, we don’t know how it will happen because we are not allowed to know.
  - Whozhear on December 20, 2021 · at 3:23 am EST/EDT
    
    You are correct Dmitry…..
    
    “that Russia knows something: that, essentially, the US is much weaker than anyone in the US thinks”
    
    In a nutshell, the Biden operation has no access to the nuclear arsenal of the US.
    - Mike from Jersey on December 20, 2021 · at 11:03 am EST/EDT
      
      I live in the United States.
      
      There is a dynamic playing out.
      
      A very substantial amount of the population no longer supports the government or major institutions. They look on their own government/institutional structure as the enemy. They no longer consider this to be a flawed, but nonetheless, functioning system. They consider themselves living under the heel of an occupying army which is suppressing them and their freedom. The numbers who take this position are large. Probably as much as thirty per cent or more.
      
      On the other hand the people pulling the levers of power have no understanding of this erosion of faith. They act with a total lack of awareness that they are surrounded by large numbers of very angry citizens.
      
      It may be that Russian intelligence understands what the American “intelligencia” does not.
      - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 11:29 am EST/EDT
        
        The numbers the Russians have voiced are that 40% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans are in favor of disbanding the USA. This is quite far beyond what’s needed to make it happen with even a minimal external stress.
        
        eagle eye on December 20, 2021 · at 3:20 pm EST/EDT
        
        Looks like schadenfruede is going to get a workout shortly.
        
        And if disbanding the USA happens, where does that leave Klaus Swabbe and his WEF Great Reset agenda? What happens to Wall Street and Operation Mockingbird media control in the collapse scenario and how does that play out globally?
        
        “On the other hand the people pulling the levers of power have no understanding of this erosion of faith. They act with a total lack of awareness that they are surrounded by large numbers of very angry citizens.”
        I see that same dynamic here in Australia at a state and federal level. Others are seeing it elsewhere. It is no longer an academic debate, but an existential problem. The media no longer accurately portray the public mood with the exception of grief following tragedy, like the local one where kids got killed in a freak playground accident. Beyond that the public reaction is endlessly spun to deliver the story “media” wants told, the truth be damned.
        
        The danger for “the West” is that nominally democratic nations will fall to totalitarianism. There is a very interesting but disturbing interview with clinical psychologist, Professor Matthias Desmet at panedemic podcasts which should be on the must listen list of the readership. It details the steps to take to create a mass formation and what that psychological phenomenon is capable of delivering. In his well qualified view the management of the Covid Pandemic in the West can bring about such a response from the public. If it does the damage will compound with that from the USA collapse Dmitry forsees and the result will be truly biblical carnage.
        
        A.S.K. on December 21, 2021 · at 2:24 pm EST/EDT
        
        I do not think it would be quite so easy to ‘disband’ the USA. Those percentage figures about wanting the country divided up are a fabrication. The majority of US citizens are patriotic. Russia is not stupid. China might be stupid enough to try something and are obvious in trying to bring down the US in other ways. I believe they will come to regret being less fair and more ruthless. They will eventually pay a heavy price for that. Give the American people a reason to organize into a patriotic military fighting force and any foe will be hurt badly. We are not so soft and stupid as some would suggest. Perhaps not as tough as the Russians overall but still plenty tough.
        
        Attacking America or Russia for that matter, would have dire consequences for everyone.
        
        Low Voltage on December 21, 2021 · at 9:53 pm EST/EDT
        
        “Give the American people a reason to organize into a patriotic military fighting force and any foe will be hurt badly.”
        
        Maybe we can invade Grenada again?
      - A.S.K. on December 21, 2021 · at 3:22 am EST/EDT
        
        Mike,
        
        I agree with your statement. What has shocked me is how the American people have stood by and just accepted it?
        
        Gieseric on December 21, 2021 · at 12:50 pm EST/EDT
        
        Personally, it’s complicated. I consider myself a Patriot and am very well-armed. I also am a Veteran. I know many Veterans and active duty, who aren’t YET willing to pull the trigger on violence. Who would be the leader in a revolt?
        
        All the crap about voting is no longer a real solution, so really what recourse is left? Is voting not a solution because of the 2020 results? IMO, no, it started LONG before that. I knew because of the 2000 contest, that it was going to get worse. All the hanging chad stuff that went on and we just HAD to go to electronic systems, which can be hacked. I didn’t say were or are, but can. (Probably have been) It’s much easier now for one person or small group of people to manipulate it. The 2020 election just showed how corrupt it all is. No voter ID is required etc. in many places. So now what? We’ve had Madmen at the switch for a long time, and now we have a Buffon run by madmen and women. Arrogant, clueless assholes would take us to the brink of destruction, which I think is engineered.
        
        Back to the veteran thing. I’ve heard said by more than one idiot that we can’t fight the 82 Airborne Division, because we don’t have the stuff they do. Well, let’s just ask the Taliban about that. Anyhow who’s to say anyone in the Active military isn’t sympathetic with us. They are. Hence the scramble by the Pentagon to root out extremism. The number of active duty and veterans that showed up on Jan 6th to protest and some participated in messing up the Capitol, has them running scared because, in reality, that is really the tip of the very large iceberg. We have just been involved in two wars for around twenty years, does anyone know how many of us post 9/11 veterans there are? 4.2 million as of 2016 and it is growing still. These are people who joined before 9/11 and of course after, which make up 2.8 million of the 4.2. How many would we need to join an armed cause to change the course of the nation?
        
        The other thing is, who says we can’t operate captured or “abandoned” equipment? What about some or a larger portion of say the 101st Airborne Division taking the side of the people? It would come down to who were the commanders of the Divisions, Brigades, Battalions, and Companies. It could fragment along those lines too.
        
        It would be a mess and one I’m not looking forward to at all. I’ve had enough of that crap to last a lifetime. Look at the L/DNR, how many Americans would put up that kind of living? Look at the fear that comes from Covid. Americans are FEARFUL because they have a lot of comforts to lose. True Asymmetric warfare requires the people to at least support it. Hell if some well-meaning true insurrectionist started something and it disrupted our reality shows or made people get off their couches, woe unto him.
        
        As for Russia, I don’t blame them. How would the US respond to Russia or China building bases in South America or Mexico? Somehow the US still holds to the Monroe Doctrine and “might makes right” thinking and would respond with violence. That I have no doubt about.
        
        goldhoarder on December 21, 2021 · at 2:22 pm EST/EDT
        
        The Taliban and the Houthis. The Houthis had their country embargoed and the farming all moved to making coffee by the IMF. The Saudis and Americans were practically giddy at the thought of starving Houthis begging to surrender. They went through a real rough patch at the start but here we are… still fighting. Fighting the US empire is absolutely not out of the question.
      - BB Rad on December 21, 2021 · at 8:39 am EST/EDT
        
        Mike ,
        believe in one thing , people are just awaiting on the right impulse- no one noticed him yet , but it is coming and after when things start rolling nobody can stop it. That is the reason why US doing things around the globe, so they leading people away from inside problems. In US everything I the order but look at the RF&China & Iran etc.etc. No word on Israel and racist government
      - Maggie on December 21, 2021 · at 1:12 pm EST/EDT
        
        I believe you hit the nail squarely on the head regarding the American intelligentsia’s lack of vision. I would like to suggest there is also a bit to review about the composition of NATO. Do you realize what the focus of that Alliance has been for decades?
        
        https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pictures/images_mfu/2021/5/pdf/210514-GIL-Manual_en.pdf
    - Joseph on December 21, 2021 · at 1:26 am EST/EDT
      
      “In a nutshell, the Biden operation has no access to the nuclear arsenal of the US.”
      
      I sure hope that’s true because Democrats would use nukes without a second thought like they did in 1945 when they had absolute power.
      
      The Democrats are the party of racism and white supremacy. All of their policies domestically keeps racial minorities down in America. I see it all the time.
  - Humml on December 20, 2021 · at 4:47 am EST/EDT
    
    Why and Why Today?
    My hypothesis – certainly typically amateurish and therefore bold:
    The smoke-bomb effect of Corona/ Covid19/ vaccination e.t.c..
    
    If one looks at the condition of the public information space in such a way … at least in the west … at least in the Federal Republic – one must determine inevitably: the topic Corona/ Covid19 beats everything, and by lengths!
    
    If one looks, which sayings the political so-called elites of the west let off in such a way – I know the cold war quasi from directly own experience – one cannot describe that actually any more with words, it is simply unbelievable!
    They can proclaim here the atomic and airborne alarm, that doesn’t itch the people at all, there only one needs to crow “vaccinate” in between, and the topic is done… (I exaggerate of course.)
  - Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 9:27 am EST/EDT
    
    @Dmitry Orlov
    “…while the ultimatum is as public as possible, its implementation will be as secretive as possible”
    
    Ok, that explained lack of “else” in ultimatum. But because of showing too much patience to spoiled brats, now it is necessery to bitchslap them to senses. As many times as it takes.
    
    I do not see how this can be done secretly enough. Thanks to informational technology and MSM dominance, West have advantage in clandestine game.
    In addition, since UKUS always prefered to use proxies, it is wise to embolden vasals to defect.
    
    Russian advantage is in having hypersonic weapons, which alowes tactics used by West against weak oponents without air defence. Maybe something like Israelis did in Gaza can be done to, say, Aegis Ashore in Romania. “Knock on roof”, followed with Big Kaboom after personel runs away. Big hole in the ground – no casualties. After that, frendly talk can begin.
    
    Seriously, it is long overdue that Empire get a taste of its own medicine.
  - Zil on December 22, 2021 · at 3:08 am EST/EDT
    
    @Dmitry Orlov,
    
    You say: “But while the ultimatum is as public as possible, its implementation will be as secretive as possible.”
    
    I have a question: coould there be any strategic merit in destroying first the paradise islands where the upper class hides, then other mansions and palaces of the supper rich? Could this destabilize the west?
- Scuppers on December 20, 2021 · at 12:51 am EST/EDT
  
  Why now? Because it’s the right moment. I keep coming back to the game of chess, in my mind. White (the west in this analogy) starts the game with the initiative, and black (Russia in this analog) has the task of arresting that initiative, and stealing it. Black did that in 2015-2018, and locked the board. But white keeps trying to regain the initiative, and at this point, black blocks, but also ensures that every counter move makes white’s next move more catastrophic. And 3 years later, we are at the point that if white decides to start trading pieces, it will lose catastrophically. So you offer your opponent a way out. Tip your king and bow out, and come back another day to play again or get blown out and humiliated. There is a third option; throw the board in the air and everyone loses. Let us hope the west doesn’t choose option 3.
  - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 3:22 am EST/EDT
    
    Wow, your comment is almost poetic! Mind if I plagiarize it?
    - Scuppers on December 20, 2021 · at 12:47 pm EST/EDT
      
      Heh, thanks. Not at all. Plagiarize away :)
  - Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 9:43 am EST/EDT
    
    @Scuppers
    “Let us hope the west doesn’t choose option 3.”
    
    Highly unlikely. Western oligarchy has much more to lose than anyone else.
    - Scuppers on December 20, 2021 · at 9:02 pm EST/EDT
      
      Your lips to God’s ears
  - Unfree on December 26, 2021 · at 10:02 am EST/EDT
    
    I think option 3 is not be available to White bc Black has the upper hand, and w/the ultimatum checkmates White. This is deemed an opportune moment. Black is known for making moves that are certain, carefully thought out/worked through and/or weighed. An ultimatum is a final warning. Heed it not at your own peril! White is in a seriously weakened state, if not at its weakest. Spread itself too thin: serious internal strives & divisions, 2022 primary coming up, yet it is expending time, energy, personnel, & resources agitating the Asia Pacific region over the SCS, Taiwan, & Xingjiang; Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand. Setting up AUKUS, pointless Democracy Summit; Ukraine; NS2 issues; Africa; & recently got Indonesia to forgo the purchase of SU35 from Russia for models from the west (I think France is one). And also working to get a foothold in Uzbekistan. Covid19 is still playing out in Mad America. Let’s face it – Mad America & brain dead NATO do not have the capacity for straight thinking, & are unrestrained! Need to call time before things get beyond salvageable.
    One other point is that the Chinese Foreign Ministry recently stated that White must be held accountable for all its crimes against humanity, including the genocide of its natives, all the human rights abuses, etc. I believe an ICC type of tribunal (at the UN?) is in the works to try the war criminals. No more impunity for the rampaging White. This would put an end to its military adventurism. Many weaker countries under the yoke of White would be liberated to do right by their country, people, and the int’l community. The ultimatum is not assured mutual annihilation but a wise-up moment, or controlled demolition would go off. Remaining culpable Whites will face a tribunal for the atrocious crimes committed against humanity!
- Delta on December 20, 2021 · at 1:36 am EST/EDT
  
  Russia had to do this now because very soon, North Atlantic Security assets will be setting up strategic long range missile batteries as close to the West side of the trenches in the Donbass.
  
  Of course, that’s absolutely unacceptable to Moscow.
  
  But your lovely American Democrats who (((really like poor people and minorities))) and wouldn’t hurt a fly that the world seems to trust with its very existence every time they are (((“elected”))) would never provoke a war would they?! Not the nice liberal Democrats who elect minorities to high office! Not them! Admit it. When Obama was “elected” you swooned with everyone else. Pathetic. Dugin himself admitted in an interview that was the mood in Russia.
  
  Stop being such fools. There is only one party that rules in America. It is the Imperial Party.
  
  Soon there will be a “black woman” as “president” of the U.S., and she is going to give the Ukronazis the go ahead order to start shooting at ethnic Russians again. Maybe only then will you realize that your enemy’s demented sense of humor (and nothing else) is what really guides his decision-making process.
  
  But if history teaches anything, the majority of Russians will think Kamala Harris is actually in charge of something and is the reincarnation of Martin Luther King, Jr. or whatever. Your obsession with splintering African-Americans from their mental enslavement to America will cause hesitation in your leadership. As will your fear that indigenous Africans themselves will somehow never respect Russia if Russia defies a mixed race female U.S. president.
  
  I pray you do not hesitate. The world cannot afford anymore more hesitation from those who have the power to do something about these lunatics.
  - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 3:28 am EST/EDT
    
    That’s a definite LOL! “Stop being such fools.”—sure, that’ll learn ’em good! It must be a heavy burden on you to know the unknowable. But you may want to tone it down some. Do you know what “vox clamantis in deserto” means?
    - Bob Valdez on December 21, 2021 · at 7:20 am EST/EDT
      
      Basically: ‘The council of the wise being ignored.’ I learned this later in life, after I made a mess of mine (all my own fault).
- rzw on December 20, 2021 · at 7:20 am EST/EDT
  
  Why I agree with Orlov, my guess is that Russia has intelligence about false flag or attack on Donbass. Just for the record keep in mind 6th of January (Orthodox Christmas eve) and 4th of February (Opening of Olympic games, Putin in China).
  - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 9:12 am EST/EDT
    
    You may have a point. It is a feature of the US military/intelligence establishment to repeat its mistakes in a zombie-like fashion. There was a provocation during the Olympics that led to the Georgia war of 08/08/08. There was Kiev coup during the Sochi Olympics. And now they are probably planning a march on Donbass for the Beijing Olympics. There is a raging debate whether that offensive will be neutralized remotely in 30 minutes or in 24 hours, or something in between. But that’s not what this ultimatum is about; it is about something much larger and more important than silly little Ukraine with its clown-president and its pathetic provocations.
- Jon on December 20, 2021 · at 8:27 am EST/EDT
  
  I think the reason ‘Why now’ is quite simply that it is time. A few weeks ago I wrote this on Andrei Martyanov’s blog.
  
  Smoothie. I’ve been watching this game for 20 years. My humble and completely uninformed opinion (OK. My arrogant and completely uninformed opinion) goes like this:
  
  Step 1. Some geopolitical/economic incident happens in the world concerning Russia.
  Step 2. President Putin responds diplomatically and measured and only occasionally with force. The Sun Tsu approach.
  Step 3. His critics insist that this only proves that he is; a. Ineffective. b. A tool of Israel, Washington, Brussels, etc. c. Incompetent. d. All dance, no Cossack. e. A Yeltsin grade traitor.
  Step 4. Russia bides her time, inflicts the death of a thousand cuts on her enemies, builds her armed forces, strengthens her economy, deepens her diplomatic roots, and shores up her foundations at home and abroad.
  Step 5: Release the Lavrov.
  Step 6. Western analysts (anal-ists?) grouse about Mackinder and Brzezinski and pontificate about the ‘Rules Breaking Order.’ Oh, and invokes the Harry Potter charm, ‘Expecto Democracy!’
  Step 7. The western world goes down a notch on all scales.
  Step 8. Some geopolitical/economic incident happens in the world concerning Russia…
  
  Well, I assume that the dance of now over, Russia has eased the west down enough notches to just cut us lose, and they have no longer anything to fear from it; SWIFT, nuclear deterrent, woke insults, beet sanctions, etc.; so, Bye, bye.
  - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 9:16 am EST/EDT
    
    LOL! More like “Expectoratio ad infinitum!” Exclaimed while breaking the magic wand over one’s knee.
- Pete on December 22, 2021 · at 2:24 am EST/EDT
  
  Because these things can take years or even decades to resolve.
tedrichard on December 19, 2021 · at 6:32 pm EST/EDT

andrei ultimatums are generally if not always time dependent…. time specific, which is to say a russian ultimatum declared today has a shelf life before agreement or action must be taken………that time is in your opinion……..years, months, weeks?
- The Saker on December 19, 2021 · at 6:37 pm EST/EDT
  
  To begin negotiations, the Russians said “tomorrow in Geneva”, but that was metaphorical.
  A month, maybe 2 max.
  But the key decisions might have already been taken.
  - Laurent on December 19, 2021 · at 6:48 pm EST/EDT
    
    How do you assess the possibility to find an acceptable compromise for both sides?
    I have hope. But then I consider the strength of the war party and western leaders delusion and stupidity and my hope diminishes quickly.
    
    Look at this for example: Germany s defense minister Lambrecht called on Western nations to “put Putin and his inner circle in the crosshairs.” She proposed personal sanctions against Russia’s leadership if Moscow invades Ukraine, “for example, that they can no longer travel to the Champs Élysées in Paris to shop.”
    
    I don’t think these people understand what is at stake here.
    - The Saker on December 19, 2021 · at 10:45 pm EST/EDT
      
      How do you assess the possibility to find an acceptable compromise for both sides?
      
      Poor.
      In a sane world, it would be a no brainer.
      But in today’s world – let’s just say that I can on the Help and Mercy of God.
      
      I don’t think these people understand what is at stake here.
      
      That is exactly my biggest fear too.
      - zina on December 20, 2021 · at 12:44 am EST/EDT
        
        You are absolutely right, that fools are dangerous, my addition is “fools” and it is even more dangerous because they are highlighted as dynamic exceptional people with visions of courage towards positivity.
      - Qoppa on December 20, 2021 · at 8:03 am EST/EDT
        
        What makes you so pessimistic?
        
        3 weeks ago, there was a WashPo article by Ignatius that contained a coded message from the CIA: Biden could offer Putin “a dignified retreat”!
        https://twitter.com/Qoppa999/status/1466108566293651458?s=20
        
        The CIA seems to be on Biden’s side (Burns), so it very much sounds (if you discount the silly propaganda noises) like Biden has already decided to make a deal with Putin. They may have to go through the moves of a Cuba-style confrontation for the public – but the aim is pretty clear. Biden doesn’t want to waste time on confronting Russia, thereby strengthening China …
    - Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 9:50 am EST/EDT
      
      @Laurent
      “I don’t think these people understand what is at stake here.”
      
      They don’t have to. They’re all paid shills. Say something bad about Putin – you get paid. Simple as that.
  - Razor on December 19, 2021 · at 8:31 pm EST/EDT
    
    it seems logical to me that Russia has already decided what action it will take if, as likely, the West brushes off its ultimatum. I would assume that whatever action it takes, will be measured. A trip wire if you like, to show it means business, and to awaken the sleeping masses in EU US, while allowing the West to step back from Armageddon. And if that doesn’t create the desired result, they will also no doubt have planned for this eventuality, which could of course mean full pedal to the metal, God save us.
    - The Scalpel on December 20, 2021 · at 5:40 am EST/EDT
      
      It’s simple. Russia and China, in tandem will move into the Western Hemisphere. Maybe Cuba or Nicaragua or Venezuela. Maybe nukes, maybe military bases. Tit for tat with NATO. It seems obvious to me, but no one else here is discussing it. The US populace will freak out. It will be interesting times.
      
      The US will politely be asked to leave Syria. If they don’t, there will be more S-300, 400, 500. US planes will start falling from the sky.
      
      These are the ways to respond while minimizing the risk of WWIII and simultaneously destabilizing the US
      - peterd on December 20, 2021 · at 10:58 am EST/EDT
        
        I recently came across the wicked suggestion by somebody to counteract NATOs eastward expansion of Russia by offering Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg until 1946) as a naval/military base for China, sharing it with the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy. That would certainly put the cat among the euro-pigeons sandwiched as it is between Lithuania and Poland.
      - GetInformed on December 20, 2021 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT
        
        What would anger the US is if the China-Russian alliance helps Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua get around the draconian sanctions so that the economies in these countries can expand and result in the improvement of the population’s lives.
        
        We can see this happening with Iran as the Russian-China alliance has made large trade deals – the recent Caspian Sea natural gas project being an example and Iran’s entry into the SCO.
        
        China has been dipping its toe in the water with some BRI projects in El Salvador and a recent diplomatic coup with Nicaragua’s recognition of the PRC and severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan and now there is talk of building a canal through Nicaragua. For the most part, I still think that both China and Russia view Latin America as the “US backyard” and don’t want to rock the boat too much.
        
        The Scalpel on December 20, 2021 · at 7:39 pm EST/EDT
        
        Putin’s “ultimatum” is more a statement of Russia/China’s next steps. He certainly knew the ultimatum would be rejected. That is the point. He wanted it to be clear that the US/NATO approved of the ground rules before he acted according to those rules.
        
        This is from Moon of Alabama:
        
        The statement includes this list of demands: (any of these ground rules will be accepted/rejected based on upcoming negotiations)
        
        No more NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders.
        Retraction of the 2008 NATO invitation to Ukraine and Georgia.
        
        (Russia/China will expand their influence toward US borders and invite certain nations near US borders into their BRI.)
        
        Legally binding guarantee that no strike systems which could target Moscow will be deployed in countries next to Russia.
        
        (Russia/China strike sytems will be deployed in countries next to the USA)
        
        No NATO or equivalent (UK, U.S., Pl.) ‘exercises’ near Russian borders.
        
        (Their will be Russia/China ‘exercises’ near US borders)
        
        NATO ships, planes to keep certain distances from Russian borders.
        
        (Russia/ China will move ships/planes closer to US borders)
        
        Regular military-to-military talks.
        
        (There will be limited military to military coordination)
        
        No intermediate-range nukes in Europe.
        
        (There will be Russian/Chinese intermediate range nukes in the Western Hemisphere)
  - Greifenberg on December 19, 2021 · at 9:17 pm EST/EDT
    
    Indeed it looks as if the “West” is losing militarily, economically, and socially.
    
    Militarily, Russia has created advancements in multi layered air defence that doesn’t have a rival anywhere in the world. Hypersonic offensive missles for which there is no defense. Anti satellite technology with the potential to destroy rival command and control satellites in orbit. Russia maintains a ground force that is much larger and more capable than any European rival. Russia also appears to have made a monumental advancement in EW that really isn’t even understood. Russia also has a very capable nuclear weapons program. This is a short list of significant advantages that ought to be well understood by Europeans in the case of the Empire using them as pawns.
    
    With the help of Russian AD and anti submarine technology China is likely to be largely impenetrable to the Empire as well.
    
    Economically, the “West” refuses to economize at all. Instead it is committing suicide by money printing.
    
    Socially, I don’t think I really need to go into LBGTQ+ values and the lack of progeny. The madness of “woke” radical egalitarianism and so on. Here the Empire is divided against itself.
    
    Some sort of realistic negotiations with Russia seem to be in order but the “West” continues to live in a world of delusions. If this ultimatum is ignored perhaps we will see what happens when reality collides with delusion.
    - Suk on December 20, 2021 · at 4:57 pm EST/EDT
      
      let’s pay attention to the details. The lights went out twice at Lavrov’s meeting with Blinken. Let’s look at Lavrov’s words, that war would take place in Europe. Lavrov is not a bluffer, he said that for some reason. Russia is following an agenda. Russian leaders and ministers are following an agenda. They know something that others don’t. What Lavrov said is a bomb. Nothing can go unnoticed now. Even a yawn, or the flight of a fly has to be noticed. The moment is historic, it is ultra important. We have to look at all things and happenings!
  - A.H.H. on December 19, 2021 · at 11:33 pm EST/EDT
    
    I think we can safely assume the Russians and Chinese closely coordinated this ultimatum, then 2 months is a reasonable timeframe. Giving them a few weeks to just absorb the shock and cycle through the stages of grief.
    
    Then also the upcoming Beijing Olympics (February 4 – 20) is a VIP prestige event not just for China but for entire upcoming “Eurasian century,” and where Putin agreed to meet XJP in person. And where simultaneous shocking images of dark cold Europe could be happening.. and by then overt bankruptcies and hyperinflation may be in full swing. What a contrast the world would see!
    
    The timing of this ultimatum is brilliant on so many levels.. it may also save the Olympics, as they will be in a panic and focused inwards on how to respond and what can be saved..
    
    I think a kinetic Demonstration may be upcoming, to help AZ crazies focus and accept submission or retreat. The world needs to see explicit “non PR massageable” proof that the former Emperor is naked and under duress.. If Russia keeps to recent form, it may be unexpected location unrelated to Ukraine – say in Syria again? Or responding to EU/camp bondsteel shenanigans in Balkans?
    - Dmitry Orlov on December 20, 2021 · at 9:23 am EST/EDT
      
      There is another time frame to consider: December 31st through January 9th is a national holiday in Russia. At around midnight on January 1 Putin will give a speech, congratulating everyone with the New Year. I am sure that the Russians would like to have this ultimatum thing singed before then, so that they can go and celebrate in peace. Of course, it means that the Pentagon, the State Dept. and the White House, plus the clowns in Brussels, will have to burn the midnight oil right through their Christmas break. That will be a bit of extra punishment for them, but they deserve it. It’s what they get for spouting annoying nonsense nonstop for a really long time.
  - gri on December 20, 2021 · at 1:03 am EST/EDT
    
    I read on another site the following news: from February 1, 2022, for the first time in Russia, the national standard “Urgent burial of corpses in peacetime and wartime” is being introduced. It describes that the authorities must be prepared to bury thousands of people in mass graves. The standards for graves, labor costs, the amount of equipment and the way of storing corpses have been established. The question is whether the ultimatum and the introduction of the above-mentioned measures are correlated.
Bill Jackson on December 19, 2021 · at 6:43 pm EST/EDT

It’s surprising (tongue-in-cheek) how this globally important subject gets so little coverage by the MSM.
- eagle eye on December 19, 2021 · at 10:59 pm EST/EDT
  
  Perhaps because they want to present it as a “surprize attack” at just the right time to deflect public fury at the ongoing covid assaults on public liberty in the West
- Ike on December 20, 2021 · at 3:27 am EST/EDT
  
  I think they are waiting for instructions on what to say and they are not forth coming
  - Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 10:09 am EST/EDT
    
    Good point.
Opport Knocks on December 19, 2021 · at 6:52 pm EST/EDT

It is far too early to predict a Russian victory here. In geopolitical chess, Russia is used to playing the black pieces very well. This white opening gambit by Russia is most likely to lead to a draw or stalemate.

Both parties now are trying to induce a mistake.

Meanwhile we have just passed 7 years of the ethic cleansing of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine. Another 10 years and there will be no young people there, Putin will retire. Subsidiaries of Bayer/Monsanto, etc. will pick up fantastic farmland and resources for cheap and consolidate, with ZATO military protection.

It is unlikely ZATO will fold or dissolve, as they are the enforcement arm of the GloboCap mafia.

Ukraine will become a variation of what happened in Yugoslavia. Maybe a small sliver get shaved off the east and becomes an independent protectorate of Moscow.
- Zorost on December 19, 2021 · at 10:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  Good points.
  
  One thing I hope Russia is aware of are the historical methods our (I’m American) mutual enemies have for gaining control without firing a shot. A big one that I’m sure they are scheming for already is in the succession of Putin. There are many examples in history where a powerful person is set to assume power, then dies unexpectedly and the next guy in line is a weakling with obvious handlers of a foreign nature.
  
  I haven’t seen anything about a line of succession post-Putin, so this worries me. Real Americans are much better off with Real Russians in charge of Russia and Real Chinese in charge of China.
  - Jon on December 20, 2021 · at 8:36 am EST/EDT
    
    The Shoigu side of the Lavrov twins. Be careful what you ask for.
- The Saker on December 19, 2021 · at 10:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  It is far too early to predict a Russian victory here
  
  Okay, then I predict a defeat for the West :-)
  - Vaughan on December 20, 2021 · at 11:31 pm EST/EDT
    
    Saker,
    I am not a Military analyst but I read your reports and insight with interest and have so since your blog started. I also enjoy Martynovs blog and the writings of Orlov.
    My talent lies in the spiritual for want of a better description. To quote from the Aussie movie “The Castle”, “it’s the vibe of the thing’ that I’m good at.
    
    The reason for Russia’s hardened stance imo may be the absolute and quickened spiritual and moral decline of the West.
    They’ve become like the bully in a bar room brawl who, will pounce with the killer blow once the peace deal and handshake have been made and the innocent victim looks away.
    Russia has endured so much ridicule, lies and mockery via Western leaders now for the past 12-15 years now. There are too many statements to quote.
    
    Russia and Putin in general, have become the ‘hit piece’ of mocking ridicule of the Western Leaders and US Generals and simply, their time is up.
    I feel that Russia has finally taken as much as she can and the Russian Leaders KNOW that they can no longer trust a country like the USA who’s own people have lost faith in their once robust institutions.
    The American people have lost faith in their democratic system, the media, the judiciary, and their stumbling bumbling President’s’.
    
    Indeed, the people have become the enemy of their own government.
    
    On the world stage, the US has become a joke unto herself. A mockery of the great country she once was and, the decline of that country and all that made her great have been systematically dismantled and white anted away.
    Her leaders words mean nothing. Their deals mean nothing and their words mean nothing.
    Sadly, truth to them, holds no value and is treated accordingly.
    Words are used by them but their words mean nothing and have no weight. No long lasting reach. No true value. Therefore, their words have become like the wind, carrying with it a scent from where it was but not strong enough to have any value
    Russia knows that unless they can draw the line now, a declaration of peace is impossible.
    Russian leaders know that long lasting peace for Russia may not disappear with a bang but wither over time by a thousand cuts. A dissolving. A watering down of conditions, a watering down of borders and a watering down of understanding until soon enough, peace will no longer exist.
    This kind of peace is no peace at all.
    “Peace peace where there is no peace”.
    
    War is an abomination but the dissolving of peace slowly before your very eyes is a burden no true Leader can entertain.
    This is what has been happening since the Wall came down. A slow dissolving of peace.
    The Russians have always seemed to attempt to turn the other cheek. They’ve used logic and were met with mockery. They’ve valued truth with a people who excelled in connivance.
    They valued respect and were met with ridicule.
    Finally, they’ve run out of humour. They’ve run out of hope that hope still exists in the West. They’ve been met with no truth, no logic and no respect
    And now, we will see if these western ‘leaders’ have steel in their backbones or jelly in their pants.
    I know what I believe we’ll see.
    - Bob Valdez on December 21, 2021 · at 7:43 am EST/EDT
      
      ‘Indeed, the people have become the enemy of their own government.’ Wrong.
      
      Indeed, the government has become the enemy of the people.
      
      Fixed it for you.
- mijj on December 20, 2021 · at 2:00 am EST/EDT
  
  my feeling is Russia/China have already won. What US is doing is what any ill-disciplined child would do to instinctively create a primitive sense of dominance – throw the chess board across the room, trample the pieces scream hate and yell threats to instinctively create a primitive sense of dominance.
  
  If you hate a person , then you are defeated by them – Confucius.
- RATNIK on December 20, 2021 · at 5:07 am EST/EDT
  
  @Opport Knocks
  
  On which sources that you base your assumptions about the population figures in Eastern Ukraine? It’s true that the Ukronazis follow an ethnic genocide policies but they couldn’t fulfill it because the Donbass slipped from their hands as soon as they grabbed power in Kiev.
  
  //It is unlikely ZATO will fold or dissolve//
  You’re overestimating their abilities. Look at the cracks that have appeared in the EU (Orban, Moraviecki, huge unrest against vaccine mandates and lockdowns etc.) The US is in an unstable situation than ever before. Red states are openly challenging the federal govt. decisions. Huge rift between the political left and the right factions. All of this is happening in the midst of an economic chaos which is expected to implode in the next two years. Unless they get a protracted war in Europe or in East Asia, the globalists have zero chance of avoiding the EU /NATO slip from their hands let alone avoiding the US from disintegrating.
  
  @Zorost
  Putin was asked about his successor in a recent interview and he didn’t answer it. However it’s highly unlikely that a country which would plan for every eventuality wouldn’t plan who its future head of state should be. Everything doesn’t need to be said in front of the media.
- Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 10:30 am EST/EDT
  
  @Opport Knocks
  
  I do not understand how many do not want to see fundamental change that happened to the World. West declined Russia and China moved forward. Projecting trends from 30 years ago into future, like nothing had changed?!?
  
  What you describe/expect was possible in the past. Not anymore.
  What future brings is unknown, but we can safely bet, it won’t be the same as before.
Donostiarra de Amara Viejo on December 19, 2021 · at 7:04 pm EST/EDT

Suddenly CNN, BBC, and a long Etc of western media have started to calm down with their bashing about Ukraine, Taiwan and all that bu###it.. Orders?
- Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 11:48 am EST/EDT
  
  So… it took them 3 days to get a grip. What a lag!
  
  They will never have initiative with that.
cdvision on December 19, 2021 · at 7:05 pm EST/EDT

Very smart move by Russia. They are likely convinced a conflict is unavoidable, but want to lay these documents down so that history will be unequivocally on their side.

At this point. I too am convinced that a conflict is inevitable. The collective West is finished economically, politically and culturally. Its their last gambit – to upset the board.

Should the peace terms be rejected (likely) then I expect Russia to have a Mike Tyson, punch in the face, at the ready. Paradoxically, 404 attacking the Donbass plays into Russia’s hands, and provides the cause for a Gotterdammerung. Then there will be a much shorter ultimatum sent to the West.
- The Saker on December 19, 2021 · at 10:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  They are likely convinced a conflict is unavoidable, but want to lay these documents down so that history will be unequivocally on their side.
  
  That is my conclusion too.
  - @QuantumBird on December 19, 2021 · at 11:01 pm EST/EDT
    
    Indeed, it has been a pattern since a while. Recently the foreign ministry just released the messages exchanged between Russia, France and Germany about the Minsk agreements, which show clearly who is sabotaging and not implementing it.
    - Blackring on December 20, 2021 · at 11:33 am EST/EDT
      
      “messages exchanged between Russia, France and Germany about the Minsk agreement”
      
      Yeah, like France and Germany didn’t know whos sabotaging ?
  - dave on December 21, 2021 · at 4:53 am EST/EDT
    
    There will not be a kinetic conflict with Nato, only a ‘threat’ of conflict. The real conflict will be financially. That is Putin’s plan i believe, the meeting with Xi has shown that.
HC on December 19, 2021 · at 7:13 pm EST/EDT

My feeling is Russia is playing for the countries in Zone B. Sure, it is a warning to Zone A, but I think it is more a matter of exposing the US current state of fragility. I also think the US senses its own weak position (economically, geopolitically and militarily). As mentioned in a thread in one of the cafes, China is also starting to speak more boldly.

Something unexpectedly may happen soon (a financial crash, maybe?) which may distract most people from all this. I wonder if the new covid lockdowns has anything to do with this ultimatum?

Let us hope war is avoided (I think it will).

Cheers.

Peace to all.
Goshawks on December 19, 2021 · at 7:36 pm EST/EDT

I wonder whether this ‘ultimatum’ is Russia finally responding in terms that the other side will grok*. By that, I mean getting inside the other side’s heads/hearts/emotions, discovering what makes them tick at deep levels, and then crafting a response at that level of knowing. Not what Russians would respond-to, but what “Biden” will viscerally respond-to.

(To get the flavor: One science-fiction story concerned humans in a space war with another species. The human military were following their own doctrines, inflicting enough losses on the aliens – by human rules – to force them to sue for peace. But, the aliens didn’t back down. Warfare continued…

A human analyst went back-to-basics and started analyzing battles from the alien viewpoint. ‘This’ showed something was important to the aliens. ‘That’ showed something-else was not important to the aliens. The analyst was slowly getting-inside the alien heads…

The analyst went to the generals and persuaded them to change their strategy/tactics to adapt-to the alien perspective. Human losses went up, as we began losing things important to us. However, the aliens soon sued for peace…)

I wonder if the Russians are applying this strategy…

* Grok is an old sci-fi term invented by Robert Heinlein. It means to intuit meaning at a really fundamental level. To ‘grok’ something is to understand it in-toto. All of it. Not unlike an “Aha!” or an “Oh!” moment.
bob sykes on December 19, 2021 · at 7:47 pm EST/EDT

The “ultimatums” are being ignored in the Western press. No American or European citizen is aware that they have given. To them, this is a nonevent. Something more dramatic and overt must happen to get the media’s and people’s attention.
- Bourbaki on December 21, 2021 · at 3:36 am EST/EDT
  
  Fully agree with this.
  
  Nearly 100% of my EU acquaintances are sedated by 1) complying with the vaccin calendar better than their neighbors and 2) an almost eschatological belief of “it can not be as bad or urgent as you say because it can’t”, compounded with 3) “and what would you do about it?”
  
  I keep telling those to whom it is worth talking we are literally living the beginning of a new “Dark Ages” which does not mean necessarily feudalism, invasions, (real) plagues, but just the total irrelevance of the Western civilization on a planetary scale. When suggesting to try to access zone B culture, I get absolute alien expressions, as if there were no zone B culture worth considering, it literally has not occurred to them…
PokeTheTruth on December 19, 2021 · at 7:47 pm EST/EDT

At the risk of exposing myself to harsh criticism, I did not interpret Russia’s submission of legal guarantees to the U.S. and NATO as an “ultimatum.”

Let us first examine the definition of the word, “ultimatum,” and see how it fits with Russia’s offer:

Ultimatum: “A final offer or demand made by one party to another, especially in diplomatic negotiations, expressing or implying the threat of serious consequences or the breakoff of relations if the terms are not accepted.“

The preamble is back-channel dialogue that set up the two important draft documents, that being the treaty with the U.S. and the separate agreement with NATO member States. Please note – the two documents are drafts, meaning a beginning of diplomatic negotiations and as such, does not fit the definition of an “ultimatum.”

Russia – U.S.A.: Treaty Security Guarantees

Russia opens with a circumspective history on international agreements for which the idea of war including nuclear exchange is unacceptable to both parties (Russia, U.S.A.).

Eight articles are listed, each one ties to acts that are of a mutual benefit to both parties. None of the articles refers to acts that one party may unilaterally take against the other party should it breech or fail to honor the tenets of the treaty. In other words, there is no “belligerence permission clause” so to speak.

Russia – Member States of NATO: Security Guarantees Agreement

Nine articles are listed and again, they are the same offer of understanding as with the U.S. treaty.

An important note – this agreement speaks to the security of NATO’s member States, not the NATO organization itself. Here Russia acknowledges NATO as a body politic but not one of the parties to the agreement. This may be just a nuance or it may mean that NATO as a collective military force is being viewed outside the security guarantees.

Russia offers an accord for peace, a path forward to deescalate unnecessary and unwarranted tensions between U.S.-NATO. We still don’t know what will happen if (1) the contracts are broken assuming the drafts go through an iterative review and a final understanding is reached between the potential combatants (2) how Russia will react to events that could unfold.

This is why prayer ropes are important, because our prayers are all we can offer to God at this juncture.
- Stand Easy on December 20, 2021 · at 1:21 am EST/EDT
  
  Well, we can call it a ‘suggestion’ or ‘request’, Poke, but the fact remains that RF has put its foot down and it has resulted in a ‘heads-up’ moment for certain heads in the US/Empire, not least the defence ministers of fUK as reported by RF media. The EU has also demonstrated some nervousness and its foreign policy head has pleaded for his organisation not to be left out:
  
  “I also stressed that the EU must of course be at the table of any discussion on the European security architecture. Russia’s Foreign Ministry this Friday released a draft proposal on security guarantees between Russia and the US as well as to European members of NATO. It is clear that the EU must be an integral part of such discussions.”
  
  https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109145/countering-power-politics-east_en
  
  As to your point (2), we’ll never know for sure what RF’s reaction is going to be; they are not going to give the game away publicly but I’m sure the Russian ‘experts’ (read, military high command) have given an intimation to their US and Nato (whose commander in Europe happens to be American) counterparts of what can and will happen. I’m also sure the RF national command — professionals all — from VVP downwards, have wargamed the different possible scenarios relating to the ultimatum (description I prefer to use) even before issuing it.
Band Itkoitko on December 19, 2021 · at 7:47 pm EST/EDT

“I only see one method to get the Europeans back from la-la-land to the real world: Russia has to defeat them militarily.”

Alternatively, and almost equivalently in term of a shock effect, is Russia completely defeating them economically. Let’s have Western people go and clean toilets in Asia or US Americans work in the fields of Mexico. Let the world reverse, they will be more than humbled and more than defeated. Their “greatness” illusion will be destroyed. Their ridiculous “superiority” will be vanquished.

Notably, the West is doing everything necessary to enact their own economic defeat. So no much effort on the Russian side is needed.
Larchmonter445 on December 19, 2021 · at 7:48 pm EST/EDT

So, the Ultimatums are strategy.

If they don’t work to induce US and NATO capitulation, then a tactic is needed.

The tactic is inducing Kiev to attack Donetsk or Lugansk.
This inducement could be money paid to certain Ukies to start the action needed.

Or, the inducement could be false orders sent to front line commanders.

Or, Russia could just turn loose the Donbass Army to push the Ukies back out of the contact zone. Then sucker the Ukies to drive through deliberate holes in the defensive lines and the threat to all Donbass will be self-evident.

Or, when new military equipment arrives in Ukraine (it is on its way in the near term), that equipment can be destroyed.

Overt or covert, direct or by subterfuge, Russia must have planned a tactic that would be a fuse and cause for them to dismantle Kiev and remove 404 as an object for NATO.

Otherwise the Ultimatums will lie dormant. Knowing Putin and Shoigu and Gerasimov, we know they have this planned out in detail. It remains a mystery to us. But it exists.Strategy and tactics.
- tedrichard on December 19, 2021 · at 8:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  the other half of the ultimatum neither written or spoken is the elegance of china moving against taiwan simultaneous to something happening in ukraine.
  
  this places the pentagon and usa in an utterly untenable place where neither victory can be achieved and a massive loss of face.
  
  if you are russia and china and you coordinate so many things now and for future it makes no sense NOT coordinate this geopolitical move resolving both problems at the same time with a minimum of fuss and which will overwhelm the western msm narrative manipulation.
  - Larchmonter445 on December 19, 2021 · at 8:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    @tedrichard,
    
    A post-Olympics possibility.
    
    Timing otherwise is more related to the shelf-life of the Ultimatums.
    Can the Russians churn them so NATO and Biden remain consumed with the urgency?
    Or do they delay, ignore, obfuscate like Kiev with Minsk 2 in order to force Russia’s move?
  - Morc on December 19, 2021 · at 9:02 pm EST/EDT
    
    >… “the other half of the ultimatum neither written or spoken is the elegance of china moving against taiwan simultaneous to something happening in ukraine.” …<
    
    And, how about throw in simultaneous Korean move to re-integrate the US-occupied southern part.
    
    And, maybe, Iran push to take Mecca once and for all (or maybe Al Quds).
    
    ^^;;^^
    
    Morc
  - Xin Loi on December 24, 2021 · at 12:12 pm EST/EDT
    
    The US has lacked the capacity AND the will to defeat either China over Taiwan OR Russia over Ukraine for many many years.
    
    Both together?
    
    Forget about it.
- imo on December 19, 2021 · at 9:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Or, when new military equipment arrives in Ukraine (it is on its way in the near term), that equipment can be destroyed.”
  
  This would be the obvious tactic — make a big splash and cost very little except to the US taxpayer/printing press.
  
  The only issue not covered in the main post is the US domestic context with Biden going into a mid-2022 election cycle that will more than likely see Trump’s re-emergence onto the political stage. A comment or two on that vector would add to the report, imo.
  
  It may well be a timed wedge to help give a “Trump 2.0” push some momentum and focus to break through — and this time to actually “make a deal” with Russia in 2024, now that the neocon “blue faction” have pretty much exhausted their mass-woke-spin capacity.
- Banana man on December 20, 2021 · at 7:28 am EST/EDT
  
  “The tactic is inducing Kiev to attack Donetsk or Lugansk.” R2P Kosovo required no inducements.
- Tikhon Bogomolov on December 20, 2021 · at 3:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Larchmonter445 dec 19 7:48 pm
  
  Noble Sir,
  
  You are aware that should the “orcs” commit to some monkey business and advance on Donbas, then the grey zone west of Donbas will likely be a killing field with 125,000 orc-soldiers being vaporised and Boryspol plus other airfields will cease to exist…
  
  Respectfully yours,
  
  Tikhon
war is coming on December 19, 2021 · at 8:20 pm EST/EDT

Good analysis Saker, thank you but I’m not optimist at all, the main problem being the pressure of the totally bought and brainwashed MSM journos + Congress/EU 24/7 online. When you see the political “elites” in place in Europe(even in Germany now) with idiots like Vonderleyen, Michel or Stoltenbergh…The two German women acting as MFA and defense minister are a total joke. I think they really believe what they say in public, I don’t see these idiots accepting to lose face, they will eventually go for suicide as they are sure to ”win”(like Nuland Kagan, Pompeo, Mc Cain in the past, Cruz…)
Remember Kerry meeting Lavrov about Syria, and then suddenly arrived in D C, Kerry saying the exact opposite of what he promised to Lavrov, as under pressing questions from the usual journos.
These people need a ‘lesson’ teached by Russia to be sure they never come back again with their idiocy, wargames, sanctions, ‘kill some Russians” etc…they must have ‘the fear of their life’ at least once, otherwise they will double down forever.
Andreas on December 19, 2021 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT

Russia’s response to expansion of the West to the East.
Kaliningrad can get nuclear hypersonic weapons.
Cuba can get nuclear hypersonic weapons, Cuba can well use economic aid.
I personally receive this ultimatum from Putin as satisfaction.
It was high time.
In my opinion, the risk is zero.
- imo on December 19, 2021 · at 9:34 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Cuba can get nuclear hypersonic weapons, Cuba can well use economic aid.”
  
  Well, as far as I am concerned, while Cuba still allows a US torture not-so-black ‘black site’ at Gitmo Bay then they deserve all the grovelling door-mat boot-prints on their necks they get.
  
  All they need to do is uninvite the USA off their island and transfer (for a lot of useful Rubles & Yuan) the “lease” of Gitmo Bay to Russia or even China to convert into an international trading hub in the region.
  
  Then any number of “cargo containers” could be stored at the port and “bingo” — job done. The Saint Petersburg knife-point is suddenly at the neck of the good old Uncle Sam — and not a “Nato” woke rainbow flag in sight.
  
  It’s Putin’s knight-move on the chessboard if he so chooses. Why stop at Crimea? Take Cuba under his wings as well? I see no downside and many interesting historical comments in the margins down the track. The strategy also has the advantage of providing a regional base to help protect Venezuela (oil) and Iranian shipping (oil).
  
  As they say, one good move deserves another.
  I await the announcement (in Spanish) from Havana… but I won’t bother holding my breath for too long, although it is a plausible scenario, imo.
  - corvo on December 20, 2021 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT
    
    “Well, as far as I am concerned, while Cuba still allows a US torture not-so-black ‘black site’ at Gitmo Bay then they deserve all the grovelling door-mat boot-prints on their necks they get. ”
    
    I hope this isn’t too far off topic:
    
    Cuba can neither legally nor practically expel the USA from Gitmo, so it’s not a question of “allowing” let alone “groveling.” Legally Cuba is bound by the lease agreement with the USA, which allows the USA the sole prerogative to renew the lease indefinitely. Now Cuba can certainly protest that the lease agreement is of at best dubious validity because it was contracted between a conquering regional power and the comprador elite in the subjugated country. But in practical terms: Cuba can certainly demand that the USA leave, but the USA will either ignore the demand (the more likely option; see Iraq) or respond with force.
    
    This much said, I am all in favor of any support the international community (including Russia) can offer Cuba.
- The Saker on December 19, 2021 · at 10:48 pm EST/EDT
  
  Russia has no more need for Cuba, at least not to deploy missiles.
  The mid-Atlantic and Russian territory are more than enough.
  - The Scalpel on December 20, 2021 · at 5:55 am EST/EDT
    
    You are not taking into account the PR factor. Public knowledge of Russian or Chinese nukes and/or military bases in the Western Hemisphere, especially the northern part, would have a profoundly destabilizing effect on the socio-political fabric of the USA. Suspicion of Russian nukes in the mid-Atlantic – not so much
    - Andrew on December 20, 2021 · at 11:19 am EST/EDT
      
      Cuba is a friend of Russian not a vassal to be used.
  - Jon on December 20, 2021 · at 8:46 am EST/EDT
    
    It would be a stunning blow to the US ego, though.
    - Nachtigall on December 20, 2021 · at 11:24 am EST/EDT
      
      I’d be a stupid decision. Zero value in terms of strategic war-fighting capability, upkeep costs and binding of forces it could use for example in Europe or Central Asia.
      
      Most importantly, it would give the US masses reason to really behind the establishment and consolidate – making an irrational decision in the long-term more likely.
      
      Now, nobody believes in the US in a real Russian threat. To the contrary, the exact opposite is the case. Even stupidest fool (except democrats) can recognize that the US military is overstretched and a nuisance at best around Russia’s borders. This will only infuriate normal US citizens in bleak times. It will make the force for US implosion much stronger.
  - Realist on December 21, 2021 · at 4:57 am EST/EDT
    
    Saker,
    
    Obviously getting China on the same page was important to Putin before shifting into this new posture of calling out the American gunslingers. Moreover, during this same prodromus he was schmoozing intensely with India’s Modi, perhaps not to recruit an active ally but to ensure neutrality. Your thoughts on Modi’s possible moves? Are we likely to see Iran stridently join ranks with Russia and China, at least to the point of acting to neutralize Israel’s potential military role? It might almost be now or never for Iran to nullify the Israeli threat if the big boys actually clash. Aside from NATO, the Five Eyes, Japan and S.Korea, any other abject vassals or non-aligned opportunists likely to throw in with one side or the other if this becomes a worldwide conflict?
- Katerina on December 20, 2021 · at 1:53 am EST/EDT
  
  To Andreas
  
  You people have strange ideas. “Kaliningrad can get nuclear hypersonic weapons” – what makes you think they don’t have these already? I would hazard a guess – they probably also have something even more interesting than that, something that has not been announced and unlikely to be done so. I have been to Kaliningrad, over two decades ago and even then it was obvious how absolutely and superbly that place is protected. Could you imagine what it is like NOW?! It’s in the middle of NATO members such as Germany and Poland, with all that such implies. Kaliningrad alone probably gives them sleepless nights – if there are any wrong moves on the part of NATO, these hypersonic missiles will reach them INSTANTLY! No fly time required.
  - Andreas on December 20, 2021 · at 8:22 am EST/EDT
    
    In the end, it doesn’t matter where the Russian missiles are stationed. They can reach any point on earth, whether with conventional or nuclear weapons. In the Western press, plans are published where NATO troops will conquer Kaliningrad. But Western press = lying press.
  - Larchmonter445 on December 20, 2021 · at 11:51 am EST/EDT
    
    Katerina,
    
    You are correct about nukes in Kaliningrad. Iskander missiles are nuke and conventional capable. The Russian military and, I think I recall, Putin mentioning it also.
    
    All Russian territory is protected with nukes. Krim, Kaliningrad, Arctic, Kurils, have nukes and S-400s.
    Russia’s tactical use of nukes is a public doctrine. No secret about that.
Alexandre Marques on December 19, 2021 · at 8:41 pm EST/EDT

Sorry, machine translation… hope my idea is clear

Master play!
The possibility of the binding “democracy” (only one veta) of NATO “accepting” to negotiate is equivalent to half of the shortest distance from Russian borders. The same is true in the zio “bipartisan democracy” of the United States. Nuclear war can only happen through carelessness. The power in the West just wants to continue doing its business and partying and backing down from its lies now would only speed up the reckoning with the 99% of its societies. Furthermore, they hope that by doubling the stakes of their current military-financial system, they will reach and overcome the current existing military-technological gap (this, if that happens, with NATO’s current and future territorial distribution, will be fatal for Russia , China, Iran, etc.).
Definition time is now. Either NATO backs down or it will be pushed.

Jogada de mestre!
A possibilidade de a “democracia” vinculativa ( apenas um veta ) da NATO “aceitar” negociar equivale à metade da menor distância das fronteiras russas. O mesmo se dá na zio “democracia bipartidária” dos EUA. A guerra nuclear só pode acontecer por descuido. O poder no ocidente só quer continuar a fazer seus negócios e festas e recuar de suas mentiras agora só aceleraria o acerto de contas com os 99% de suas sociedades. Além disto, eles tem a esperança de que dobrando as apostas do seu atual sistema financeiro-militar, alcancem e superem a atual lacuna tecnológico-militar existente ( isto, se acontecer, com a atual e futura distribuição territorial da NATO, será fatal para Rússia, China, Irã, etc.).
A hora da definição é agora. Ou a NATO recua, ou será empurrada.
Ragimund on December 19, 2021 · at 9:00 pm EST/EDT

Fundamentally this is spiritual issue.

USA thinks herself as New Israel,

“ For we must consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us. “

when in actuality she is New Babylon

“ Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues. “

What we see today is results from them operating in the wrong metaphor, frustrated with result’s contradicting their expectations.

And bitter hatred against one the last great bastions of the Orthodox faith left, Russia, is a telltale sign of the evil ones handiwork.
- Ted on December 20, 2021 · at 1:39 pm EST/EDT
  
  It may be more accurate to say that the US began as something approaching a Christian city on a hill, but over time the freeMasonic influence has caused it to rot into a true New Babylon.
Max on December 19, 2021 · at 9:04 pm EST/EDT

Russia through its proposals is clearly stating no more hegemony or empires. It is asking the U$A to become sovereign and constrain its military might for defensive purpose. Sauron & Saruman needs to withdraw its forces, so nations can be sovereign everywhere. A great move!

Russia surprised the Empire with its demands, like China did which led to the release of Huawei’s Meng. Putin and his confidants have definitely thought through, as this surprise is a gutsy move, just before the holidays. Russia wants to maintain the edge in the developments and retains the element of surprise. It has recognized that Minsk agreement is history and so upped the ante. It has directly approached Saruman and Sauron. It will be difficult for Putin to back off without achieving success, as the proposal is public. Vladimir Putin has put his credibility, reputation and legacy on the line.

The Empire will have to negotiate in good faith and soon, or prepare for a conflict. It won’t get time to pull any big tricks. If it signs the proposal (negotiated one) then its dismantling will start and that will be the end of its hegemony. Russia had communicated that they will work to ensure there is no hegemony in the future. Who wins: the Empire or Russia? Nations will hopefully achieve their sovereignty and a better world will emerge!

This moment comes across as this scene from the Lord of Rings, where Gandalf gives the ultimatum!
https://youtu.be/FcPOv8lmEi8
xvfsb on December 19, 2021 · at 9:04 pm EST/EDT

I think if Russia has intel on the Inside Job known as the 9-11 “Terrorist” Attack, the time for revealing this information to the world draws near.

Failing this, documentary evidence of American state-sponsorship of ISIS or Al-Queda terrorist affiliates who have fought against Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, or elsewhere in Eurasia (like China or Russia itself) would also be a welcome revelation to the world.

As a bonus, information about the pedophiliac appetites of American, Anglosphere, or European elites would also be certainly appreciated by concerned citizens of the world.
- John Neal Spangler on December 20, 2021 · at 2:33 pm EST/EDT
  
  All of these excellent ideas. I second the motion.
michael lacey on December 19, 2021 · at 10:36 pm EST/EDT

The west received the message! What they do or do not do, They own the problem !!
Santiago on December 19, 2021 · at 10:39 pm EST/EDT

One would conclude there is an ongoing attempt to provoke Russia (& China) by the NATO EU UK forces.
Principally totally corrupt and untrustworthy EU elites.

This has been going on since 2012 via their puppets Obama, Merkel & Macron.
Most US Presidents since 1920 have been EU / UK puppets. Exceptions – JFK & Trump.
And looks what was done to them.

The solution to deal with all the worlds problems is for both Russia and the US take out those elites, one way or another.

And for Britain it means the Conservative Party, the BLP and all the Royals have to go. Permanently.

The UK by-election 3 days ago where the Conservatives lost a “safe” seat held for 200 years shows that process has started. SEE https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-59687316

The UK military needs to move on this as do their counterparts in France, Germany, Holland etc…. and US.
Santiago on December 19, 2021 · at 10:46 pm EST/EDT

Per my other comment the question people in UK should be asking is

“Where is Oliver Cromwell when we need you ?”

Or Guy Fawkes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Cromwell

In Germany it would be Claus von Sauffenberg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claus_von_Stauffenberg

Imnsho Cromwell was a genocidal maniac. Ask the Irish
My 2cts
Andrei
- Santiago on December 19, 2021 · at 11:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yes Andrei true, re Ireland,
  Oliver was a bit extreme but that was a sign of the times. Religious war.
  But Ireland was seen a launching point for a Catholic/Papist attack on England back then.
  But he did clean out most of the rot in home territory.
  England wasn’t the same again.
  His period was the precursor to the 1688 Glorious Revolution which operated reasonably on and off for a long time.
- Razor on December 20, 2021 · at 7:33 am EST/EDT
  
  Seeing as how you asked, this Irishman agrees totally with you. Cromwell – “To hell or to Connaught”
@QuantumBird on December 19, 2021 · at 10:50 pm EST/EDT

Russia just made plain clear its strategic patience finished. From now, West can say whatever they want, but if the actions are not the ones prescribed in the letter, or at least, very likewise, better the West to start guessing where the hits will arrive. Between the ultimatum, its possible rejection and the actual war, some strange, almost supernatural, things could start to happen in the West. So many kompromats to be played, so many submarine cables to be cut, satellites to go off-line, back of alien activity in Bermudas… A there are these proverbial snipers like Juba as well, I wonder how they will call them in Ukraine.
bystander 04 on December 19, 2021 · at 10:51 pm EST/EDT

this firm grip of censorship in the Western mass media equals Stalin’s grip on media in his empire. If nobody hears about this ultimatum in the West – than (tongue in cheek) – it did not happen…there is no ultimatum??
jiri on December 19, 2021 · at 10:54 pm EST/EDT

Finally things are rapidly coming to a conclusion.

From the few reports on this that I have seen in the MSM they have carefully avoided the word ultimatum and the response is a mixture of incredulity and dismissiveness.

I hope that the people in the US establishment are taking it more seriously. The US is in a bind. It either disbands the Empire peacefully or has it dismantled for it. It is time for the Empire to put up or shut up.

No timeline has been mentioned but I guess it is two months. Just until the Winter Olympics are over. But you never know, attacking Russia while Putin is watching sporting event seems to be standard practice.

It will be over during Biden’s presidency.

You never know. He might just turnout to be the greatest US president ever!!!!
The Kansan on December 19, 2021 · at 10:59 pm EST/EDT

If we are truly getting close to Armageddon, it is time for all to rise up against the war profiteers that control the USA government and issue their own ultimatum – we’ve had enough and the government should negotiate a lasting peace. But how can this happen when the DOD and CIA control the mass media institutions that brainwash the general public?

Back in the early 80s, when “The Reagan” characterized Russia as an evil empire and the CIA fulfilled it’s usual role of dis-informing the American public on all manner of Cold War specifics – and these and other rightwing factions were peddling the lie that the USA was falling behind the Soviet Union in the nuclear arms race and its long-range ballistic missiles were vulnerable to Soviet attack, the USA mass media surprisingly offered the public a 1983 movie called “The Day After.” Over 100 million households in the USA watched “The Day After” at the time of its broadcast. Over two nights of prime time, the movie depicted the aftermath of a nuclear exchange between the USA and the Soviet Union. Furthermore, it galvanized grass roots support for ending “The Reagan” view that a nuclear war was winnable and that all strategic arms agreements with the Soviet Union were nothing more than acts of appeasement and pushed “The Reagan” to move forward with arms control despite his (its) rightwing neocon orthodoxy.

In addition, as the film was aired on FREE TV, the grass roots of the USA challenged the war profiteers, pushing a nuclear freeze as an option to the consistent war profiteer line that the USA must endlessly prepare for a war that could never be fought. In the USA during ‘The Reagan”, the nuclear freeze was endorsed by more than 370 city councils, 71 county councils, and by one or both houses of 23 state legislatures, and was pushed forward by citizens in even cities of the deep south, the most rightwing area of the USA.

The USA needs a similar movement today. The problem, of course, is that the mass media is simply a propaganda outlet for the CIA, DOD, and the war profiteers. Simplistic views such as USA good and Russia evil continue to be pushed into the collective USA psyche. And as others have pointed out, there’s been a virtual news blackout on Ukraine tensions, Russia’s security proposals, and other “sit up and take notice” news. This blackout is by design.

While I cannot know the mind of Putin, I did watch with interest Oliver Stone’s four episodes of interviews with him. I found it interesting that he took the time to watch the movie “Doctor Strangelove,” perhaps the single greatest movie that demonstrates the folly of nuclear war. He appears cautious, and I hope he will remain cautious. In spite of the rhetoric of USA neocons, the deep state, and NATO, I truly believe the vast majority of American and European citizens DO NOT WANT WAR WITH RUSSIA. How can this public sentiment become a movement? The answer eludes me at present, but I believe if there is wide scale mobilization against Russia and China, the movement will emerge. And just as with “The Reagan,” “The Biden” will be forced to respond.

It is truly sad that it has come to this. My own solution for the issues Russia seeks to resolve was that Eastern Europe should have been made a neutral area with both NATO and Russia agreeing to not put their military in these countries, in essence, creating a buffer between the superpowers. The agreement should have been made in writing. Now Russia is asking for a more meager but still meaningful solution – one that has a great deal of validity. I hope the USA and it’s European vassals realize that the stakes are too high and that a rational “neutrality” of key geographic areas will benefit both sides.
B.F. on December 19, 2021 · at 11:28 pm EST/EDT

There are two factors which will encourage war against Russia. The first is the neocon belief that Russia can be defeated in a sneak attack with minimal loses to the US, and here I am taking – believe it or not – about a nuclear confrontation.

The second factor is the internal situation in the US, gigantic foreign and domestic debts, the dollar being printed backed by nothing and the upcoming financial crash because of these these weaknesses. Now what will happen if the dollar crashes, or is about to crash ? The neocons sitting back and watching the show ? I think not. They will either do something foolish on the international scene, or else will replicate what the Roman elite did in 476, when they all fled Rome, leaving the city to the Vandals. The Internet has for years presented articles on the US elite and their hideaways, purchasing real estate outside the US, with the two top favorites being New Zealand and Tasmania. We shall see what they will do.
- liana sammartino on December 20, 2021 · at 7:23 pm EST/EDT
  
  Do we know WHO the American elites are?
  Do the Americans have any possibility to overthroe them?
- darkmoon on December 21, 2021 · at 8:32 am EST/EDT
  
  I do not think so. They now precisely that they cannot eliminate Russia’s second strike capability under any circumstances.
  At the very least can mobile launchers and the submarine fleet deliver a devastating attack.
  Also would be wishful thinking to assume that Russia wouldn’t detect an incoming strike and launch their ICBMs and bomber fleets.
sorcerer on December 19, 2021 · at 11:42 pm EST/EDT

After all madness this is new normal.What if China stop to deliver goods to USA ?How military complex will make weapons,how long would be that war?USA must accept that ultimatum and no way around.Like what Cesar sad : eather peace or nuclear war!
- cdvision on December 20, 2021 · at 12:32 am EST/EDT
  
  sorcerer: you make an absolutely vital point. This is the truly nuclear option, and I’ve made this point on this blog and others. To repeat: if China stops exports to the US (and Europe) for only one month, the supply chains will collapse and internal warfare will erupt. No need for bombs.
Katerina on December 20, 2021 · at 12:06 am EST/EDT

I think this is one of those Putin’s judo moves. Use the opponent’s own bulk and size to get him off-balance and then throw him on the floor. Most people in the West are conditioned to see things only as what is presented to them (as in narrative) and then get totally lost in trying to understand what is really happening. Most are also still harbouring some delusions of greatness about themselves. Without understanding Russian psyche one can never understand what is really behind this move by Russia. I will try and explain. For a start, no matter how it’s being presented by imbecils themselves and their Presstitudes and even some commenters on this blog – get this absolutely clear in your heads – this is an ULTIMATUM! Given by Russia to the collective West. Dmitry Orlov, in his recent post, touched briefly on this – to Russians, the verbal agreement is as legitimate and binding as a written one. Has always been accepted as such, and what’s more, also in the West, until the West became totally lawless and criminal. This was enshrined even in Magna Carta – that verbal agreements carry exact same weight as the written ones. Check it out. Not only the collective West has broken that agreement, of not moving NATO “even an inch” to the East, in doing so they also mocked and verbally abused Russia for being such dumb suckers and not getting that in writing! What does that make such creatures to be? An evil, psychopatic, delusional human garbage and now the whole world sees them as such. Except for a few faithful vassals and flunkeys, like EU, Australia and Japan.
Meanwhile Russia was quietely re-building itself and at the time was not in position to confront or even strongly object, knowing that such objection will be totally ignored. Do you think that Russia did not understand what it was dealing with? Right from the moment Putin became President, the first thing he did was the total overhaul of neglected Russian military forces and also bringing in the amazing new stuff – in their defense, and if needed, attack capabilities. Oh, they understood it 100%! People like Paul Craig Roberts and others used to harangue Russian President for not responding forcefully to nasty and endless western provocations, claming that such approach just encourages more of the same. What they could not understand is that Russia was not yet ready! Putin, with his usual very careful, deliberate and strategicly thought-out approach was getting, as the saying goes, all his “ducks in the row”. Now, Russia IS ready! This is only the start of the due punishment which from now on will be meted out to the West and relentlessly. Make no mistake here. Russians have tried their very best to find some functioning brains there, in the collective West, to see if they can have at least SOMEONE there to communicate and hopefully negotiate with, and found NONE. So, what we are seeing now is what was to be expected. Russia does not ever forget or forgive crimes against it that are wilfully planned and inflicted.
What will be happening from now on is one hell of the retribution, which was long overdue. The West will be very firmly put in it’s place and told to stay there. Or else! The ignorant, arrogant, stupid games are over.
As Dmitry astutely titled his post – Washington: Crime and Punishment. Indeed.
DFavre on December 20, 2021 · at 12:20 am EST/EDT

I wonder who is “Biden”.
- Larchmonter445 on December 20, 2021 · at 12:06 pm EST/EDT
  
  The collective known as “Biden” is the Wilsonian Dems, the Russophobes Khazarians, the Deep State anti-Federalists, the warmonger left hell bent to destroys the Middle East and to break Russia into pieces.
  
  They are from Obama’s and Clinton’s camps.
  
  They have ruled the US since JFK.
  
  They are the Wall Street clique that has financialized everything and created Big Tech, Big Pharma, while institutionalizing corruption in Congress as a daily process of procedure.
  
  Now, with Big Social Media, they have captured and rigged the democratic process of voting so they can tune in any result they need in key districts and precincts.
  
  There are no domestic counterweights. They control all critical departments of the government and all coastal big population states except Florida.
Realist on December 20, 2021 · at 1:38 am EST/EDT

Washington seems to believe that Israel and NATO have the discretion to bomb facilities in any sovereign nation they purport to be a “threat” to them whether such a precedent has been set or not. For example, Israel wiped out both Saddam’s and Assad’s nuclear reactors without criticism from the US. In fact, they received gold stars for their efforts on their report cards. Israel currently blows up facilities in Iran with regularity and attacks Iranian military advisors with impunity in Syria and Lebanon. NATO laid waste to Serbia and Libya in bombing campaigns, also receiving gold stars from their mentors in Washington.

If the present issue is about Russian security in its own territory, including its largest cities, Washington ought to recognise a clear case of reciprocity should Russia take out the missile batteries pointed at Moscow and St. Petersburg from Poland and Romania. Seems like a reasonable “red line” to me that even the Russophrenic hotheads in Warsaw should understand. A reasonable response from Washington and NATO would be to stand down and cut everyone’s losses. However, the US and its indentured “allies” rarely act reasonably in my estimation. Probably for starters, Russia should expect to quickly lose that fancy new bridge over the Kerch Straits they just built.

Following that, Washington’s arrogance will allow nothing but a tit for tat exchange until the nuclear option is the only strategy left on the table. We know that Washington will insist that “it was worth it” (we’ve heard that refrain before) even if the final outcome is the extinction of all life on earth. Washington’s players are such cussed lunatics they will take it to that limit. Personally, I would not. I would stop throwing nukes after the first launch or two, whether the other guys did the same or not. I’d give the few survivors a chance to build back from the new stone age. I’m not sure about Russia. Would they? It would take a generous soul to forgive the annihilation of one’s people.
- Ralph Conner on December 20, 2021 · at 10:01 am EST/EDT
  
  But, Washington could conceed to every single Russian demand and with their control of the MSM, spin it to their pawns as victory. Exactly like they did with the Cuban missle crisis. Then, they would have stopped North Stream, EU Russian rappaproachment and they would have lost exactly nothing. Russia on the other hand, will have been forced to use its military and completely cut itself off from EU. This ultimatum is no Checkmate.
Bitlab on December 20, 2021 · at 1:50 am EST/EDT

Cribs for dogs from negotiation tables

This is a “side note”. Correct me where I am wrong.

Russian diplomatic technique improves but not enough. Root of the problem is underestimation of moral level of a struggle.

1. Recent and future talks with US must go to public TV channel in run time.

2. Why? Because Russian diplomats have nothing to hide from own people. If “I” am a Russian citizen, what my employees, diplomats and government have to hide from me? The press conf. after talk looks ridiculous, there is no need for it, all should be public anyway.

2′ The same for US. What is that they tell V. Putin they don’t want own American people to know? They don’t do
a treason on the talk, don’t they?

3. Openness should become a generic diplomatic standard century ago for above reasons.

4. There is another matter, when talks with China for example, there can be a private part. Because in this case
both countries are victims of the third, US, and may have to say something private.

5. In case of talks with US it will an enormous effect of disclosing real politics to masses of US people when
people see what V. Putin say and V. Nuland answers.

6. V. Putin made a good insight when offered J. Biden open talk after “killer” accusation. But he
lost when accepted non-public apology. An he lost moral ground a bit when then first talk with Biden was not
held public or released to public.

7. Russians repeat N. Chrushyev mistake of non-emphasizing publicly their points, f.e. the point of nukes in Turkey. This allowed J. Kennedy to “hide” the “rightful side” of Russian demands.

8. Russian dip. school managed to preserve good skills of USSR school. But apparently the culture of secretiveness is still strong.

9. Again, S. Lavrov made a good step in right direction of openness when unusually recently published negotiations with European partners about Minsk agreement talks.

10. Intuitively or not, today’s Russian “ultimatum” is one more step in improving dip. skills.

People who don’t want to cheat should go open in eyes of own citizen. Every country must be open in top-level negotiations with rivals. Why people have to take “informational cribs” from “negotiation tables” of their own servants? If I own the company, I would not respect my CEO making negotiation behind my back.
- Bitlab. (A Dog.) on December 20, 2021 · at 2:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  PS: On this meeting, President Biden surrounded “his shoulders” with four officials:
  
  https://www.rt.com/usa/542496-biden-putin-call-company/
  
  President Putin acted as a “lone wolf” and this hard job is respected. However, if public cameras where turned on on Putin’s side, then he would have all the Russia behind his shoulders! An perhaps not only Russia. Because Putin’s messages are 0.1% for Biden and 99.9% for American people.
laodan on December 20, 2021 · at 1:51 am EST/EDT

Andrei’s analytical clarity is refreshing.

But a weakness is unfortunately tarnishing his exposé. This exposé applies indeed to a closed system that is rooted in Russia’s military positioning. I honestly don’t know if Andrei’s affirmation is right that “The first thing we need to understand is that Russia holds all the military cards”. But what I know for certain is that power in today’s world is far more complex than a matter of military dominance. Andrei somehow recognizes this himself when he states that “Russia also holds much stronger political and economic cards than the USA which has close to nothing. …”. The British and US “Build Back Better” programs are an implicit recognition of their dire socioeconomic conditions. But, and I write this in all due respect, while recognizing the reality of systemic societal complexity Andrei can’t quit the mindset of the military strategist.

I suggest that, in our era of Late-Modernity, Geopolitical strategy must necessarily encompass all internal and external societal fields.

Having followed the evolution of President Putin’s thinking over the last twenty years I observed that he made one thing abundantly clear. He thinks in terms of open systems, not only as an observer but, as an actor who learned from the Eastern practice of Judo how to seize the energy of existing forces against those who are impulsing them. President Putin has become a master at juggling with the complexity of interacting open systems. It’s a pity that Andrei did not pursue his own observation that “there are plenty of things the USA need, but I would single out one: time”. Even President Biden recognizes that the US has to rebuild its infrastructure from the ground up. But the fact is that this recognition is merely a pious wish as the US congressional actuality plainly attests. Failing to immediately rebuild, their infrastructure and superstructure, portends the fall of Western nations out of history.

In short what I mean to say here is that the present Geopolitical moment is a very special moment indeed. In my view the present moment is characterized by 5 deep trends. I gave a sketch of these in a comment on Pepe’s article “Putin and Xi plot their swift escape”. Here follows a sketch of that sketch :

1. The disintegration of the cultural, social, and economic realities in the West :
One thousand years of ever increasing individualism have left Western Europe, and its geographic extensions, in a state of societal atomization. This means that there is no shared worldview left to glue the individuals in a unified societal whole and such a society is, by definition, no longer able of any grand collective undertaking nor economically, nor militarily nor any other… The US is a living proof of this incapacity of any grand collective undertaking. Externally : Irak, Lybia, Syria, Afghanistan,. etc. Internally : 50% of the people have no financial reserves to pay for the next garage maintenance, life expectancy has been falling by nearly 2 percentage points over the last 3 years, crime is rampant and the jails are full bestowing on the US the distinction of the highest incarceration rates on earth and by far, and I could continue to extend the list of the aspects of US society that prove it is nearing its moment of truth…

2. The center of gravity of the economy-world has been shifting away from the West toward East-Asia and more particularly toward China :
This is the 8th such a shift of the center of gravity of the economy-world over the span of Modernity… What is different this time is that the center of gravity is leaving the territorial area of the Western civilization !

3. The overtaking of Western economic realities by Western finance :
Economic growth has been missing in the West since the 1970ths. What appeared as growth was merely the residue of an accumulation of debt. But after 40 years of increasing debt comes the inevitable moment of reckoning.
Creditors refuse to make new loans and then remains solely money creation, out of thin air, to finance the national enterprise including the imports of goods and services that foreign workers have been sweating to produce. This works for a short time but then comes the final reckoning… and the final reckoning will definitely come the day China refuses to supply goods against the valueless dollar… which will be seen as an act of war by the US because that inevitably means that the US population will turn against its masters…
Now note that the Russian ultimatum comes at the very particular moment that China observes that its exports to the US are paid for by paper whose value is in free fall internally in the form of hyper-inflation and externally in the form of falling exchange rates. If you think that, in such a context, the Chinese decision-makers are sheepishly waiting for better days, then I have a bridge I want to sell to you…

4. A global reset is being proposed to force humanity into a new form of feudalism :
This neofeudalism is presently being forced on Western citizens by the aristocracy of Western capital holders and their servants (the international managerial class + the highest echelons of national bureaucracies + the national elites). This reset occurs while the Western information sector is being muzzled by the US national security organizations which plunges the West in what from the outside appears like a vortex of societal madness. But could societal madness be the strategy used to sneak decisions past the eyes of Western citizens ? This societal madness acts indeed like a societal fog that hides an intense effort at engineering the consent for a new form of governance that could — soon chain Western citizens in a new social compact — and soon thereafter could chain their nations into a new Geopolitical order. Seen 1 and 2 and 3 this may seem no more than a pipe-dream. But is it really ?
Could Western elites not be preparing for the inevitability of what they sense is coming their way ? If this is the case then the madness toward Russia and China should perhaps be better understood as no more than a trial to get the most out of a negotiation where they known darn well that they have the weakest hand.

5. The predicament that we face in Late-Modernity does not relate to any one factor in isolation. What humanity faces today is a convergence of multiple crises. I call this “The Great Convergence of Late-Modernity” :
— societal atomization has wrecked the operational unity of Western nations and this is not reparable within the foreseeable future.
— economic financialization has indebted Western nations and foreign creditors want out of the financial mess.
— Western Modernity has afflicted humanity with the destruction of the habitats of most living species including its own (climate change is merely a symptom of this systematic destruction).
— Western Modernity has extracted the low hanging fruits in all resource-fields that are necessary to further run Modernity for future generations.
These crises are now also interacting and creating uncontrollable feed-back loops that threaten the survival of life on earth. President Putin, President Xi, President Biden, and the people around them have an acute understanding of all this and they are brainstorming hard to devise strategies for their societies to escape the worst of what otherwise could be a rough escape from the Berezina for their citizens.

It is in this particular context that :

— a rear guard of Western ideologues are bluffing their way forcing their madness on all nations that refuse to submit to their unilateral order. But those who lead these ideologues know full well that their order has zero chance of passing. In the meantime they are inflicting a rather unpleasant nuisance that distracts the nations, that still have a future, from the necessary tasks of our time which are : — deliverance from absolute poverty — cultural and economic development to ensure the necessary resilience for all nations to live in harmony among themselves and within nature.

— the center of gravity of the economy-world has shifted to Beijing which is consolidating its newly gained advantage by pushing an “internal circulation” model. What this means is that China is consolidating its centrality in the fields of consumption, technology and production by shadowing the flying geese pattern of development that had been coined, in the 1930s, by Kaname Akamatsu. In this model productions, that have generated sufficient profits to recuperate the investments to launch them initially, are being delocalized to the periphery of the Chinese economic space. This occurred first internally by delocalizing activities like textiles from the East to the West of China. Over the last ten years the same strategy has been in application externally toward ASEAN helping its rapid economic growth and its economic integration in the Chinese economic space. This strategy is expected to soon gain its full speed in the Eurasian nations and in Africa.

I suggest that the Russian ultimatum has to be understood in this particular context and this implies that this ultimatum is a first act in a wider strategy that is being played out, in concert by Russia and China, in order to provoke the financial and economic fall of the US.

But why pushing the US to fall precisely now ?

Well the West is de facto in a state of war with Russia and China since a few years already. What is special in the present moment in history is that “China observes that its exports to the US are paid for by paper whose value is in free fall” as I mentioned in 3 here above. Furthermore I write in 1 and 4 are also at play but we have no way of knowing what is being said in the discussions between those who are in “the know” on each sides of the negotiations. Finally the scientific community is launching ever more strident calls for action to the political decision-makers to halt what they see as the extermination of life on earth.

So all these forces are reaching peak catalysis in the present moment. This is why pushing the US to fall precisely now has the best chances to succeed.
- Stand Easy on December 20, 2021 · at 5:07 am EST/EDT
  
  Interesting comment laodan.
  
  I suggest that the Russian ultimatum has to be understood in this particular context and this implies that this ultimatum is a first act in a wider strategy that is being played out, in concert by Russia and China, in order to provoke the financial and economic fall of the US.
  
  I’m quite sure Russia and China coordinate closely about matters concerning their common enemy but I’m not sure how the ultimatum is a step in a grander strategy to provoke the US’s economic downfall.
  
  I would think that the ultimatum has to do with something more urgent and immediate — the avoidance of nuclear war between the two great powers. At any rate I think a conventional war between the US and Russia (or China) will itself provoke the US’s economic downfall.
- Sudhi on December 20, 2021 · at 4:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thank you Iaodan, for your comment. It encapsulates the wider range of actions determining world polity in terms of ‘open systems’, as you call it. It is to be seen how the present scenario moves forward. We can only hope for minimal damage, for all, in case of wholesale conflagration.
- NotEuclid on December 21, 2021 · at 6:49 am EST/EDT
  
  “This exposé applies indeed to a closed system that is rooted in Russia’s military positioning. “
  
  As you are “highly likely” aware, science is an endeavour based upon co-operation and criticism, whilst some coercive social relations encourage through various interacting vectors the conflation of criticism with attack in the hope of facilitating non-co-operation and censorship including self-censorship which remains temporaily with variable velocity within a closed system, and why the purpose of some is transcendence of coercive social relations using all vectors facilitated by interactions and complicities of interlocutors (partners), subject to a different definition of facility namely, what is deemed appropriate and possible at a moment within a lateral process – the transcendence of closed systems by open systems facilitated by the contradictions inherent in closed systems through time.
  
  Modern “surveillance/perception management attempts” through their modes of facilitation afford opportunities to some to circumvent attempts at censorship whilst increasing datastreams of what the censor deems necessary to censor, and hence censorship like secrecy is never an absolute/a closed system, but always an interaction of variables including but not limited to trajectories/vectors and velocities facilitating the transcendence of closed systems facilitating your observation:
  
  ” But what I know for certain is that power in today’s world is far more complex than a matter of military dominance.”
  
  You are not alone in the concept but perhaps limited in perception of the opportunities/vectors afforded by interactive complexities – as are many others.- predicated on your recognition that “”we have no way of knowing what is being { said in the discussions}, perhaps delete and replace with done, between those who are in “the know” on {each}, perhaps delete and replace with all sides of the { negotiations.}, perhaps delete and substitute with interactions.”
  
  This was held to be the case by some in 2014 and in different degrees/vectors/velocities remains the case.
  
  “So all these forces are reaching peak catalysis in the present moment.”
  
  Optima and perfection sometimes known as the zipless f*ck is never achievable in lateral interactions, although the opponents are prone not to believe this and go searching for golden fleeces and/or magic bullets.
  
  “I suggest that the Russian ultimatum has to be understood in this particular context ”
  
  I suggest the first thing to understand is that it is a notice of intent which was understood would be interpreted as an ultimatum in this particular context; a first act in a wider strategy that is being played out, in concert by Russia and China.
  
  “in order to..”
  
  You have no way of knowing : “”we have no way of knowing what is being { said in the discussions} delete and replace with done, between those who are in “the know” on {each} delete and replace with all sides of the { negotiations.} delete and substitute with interactions.”
  
  “the West is de facto in a state of war with Russia and China since a few years already”
  
  In Chinas case and the perception of some since at least 1842, in Russia’s case and the perception of some at least since 1922, given that war is not restricted to things that go bang – your comment “ “This exposé applies indeed to a closed system that is rooted in Russia’s military positioning. “ refers, and partly why analysts and strategists adopt different roles and significances.
  
  Interactive processes are complex including to describe, and hence to encourage the continued obfuscation of complex processes by tools such as “anti-intellectualism” which is undermined by interaction with the perceived requirement to restrict election and other recruitment choices to those with shiny shoes and good teeth/those just like us.
O.B. on December 20, 2021 · at 2:04 am EST/EDT

European major powers moment in history has come and come. A coherent ensemble of European nations may never come to existence; for the same reason – and here is where our host, the Saker, and Russian-based commentators in general may fail to understand, in spite of their brilliance – that Russia’s role in world affairs and culture has been always underestimated.
Matt on December 20, 2021 · at 3:49 am EST/EDT

I’m in the UK, I actually like Russia’s ultimatum, I’d gladly sign it,
it would be the justification to ask the Yanks to finally go home and take the nukes we rent off them too, if Britain drew in it’s horns and went non aligned at this point it could keep out of whatever lunacy Washington might try next,

Europe ought to rewind to something akin to the pre Maastricht Treaty format, early 1990’s, the Eastern European and Baltic states that were released from the Soviet Union should have remained as a belt of non aligned countries as a no mans land between Russia and Europe,

I’m anticipating a major western economic crisis in 2022 where inflation rises to the point it causes an economic crash,
the real economy of goods and services is in noticable decline whilst the financial economy has been inflating since the 1990’s and the inflation has accelerated since the GFC in 2008,
the financial economy has to revert to a realistic size relative to the real economy of good and services, considering the alarming degree of divergence currently reached you’re probably looking at a combined soft and hard default of circa 70-80%

this economic implosion will cripple the US, EU, UK and force them to radically pull in their horns, enact military and geopolitical project austerity because there is nothing left to cut in their domestic economies without impacting basic essentials required to stop popular revolutions and over throw of the current establishment,

Russia, China, Iran etc. are fairly firewalled from the Western economic zone and are probably anticipating imminent collapse,

Russia’s ultimatum offers the West a cover story for a huge cost saving retreat from Empire.

the West is about to do it’s own version of the collapse of the Soviet Union,

Israel is going to find itself right out on a limb and suddenly will transform itself into the most polite, friendly, diplomatic and helpful neighbour imaginable!
- Nemirni on December 20, 2021 · at 9:08 am EST/EDT
  
  Interesting observation, could well be possible.
  
  At least I hope it is.
- NotEuclid on December 21, 2021 · at 10:29 am EST/EDT
  
  “Israel is going to find itself right out on a limb and suddenly will transform itself into the most polite, friendly, diplomatic and helpful neighbour imaginable!”
  
  Absolutes do not exist in interaction, within which change is a constant, and variables include, but are not restricted to trajectories and velocities, within which some attempt misrepresentation.
Rootman on December 20, 2021 · at 3:55 am EST/EDT

Possibly another front could be opening:

Mrs Clinton appeared on Fareed Zakaria yesterday (not really interesting interview), she published a book, she opened her ”masterclass”- website, and articles appear about her replacing Biden/ Harris, like this one:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/586034-will-or-should-kamala-harris-become-the-spiro-agnew-of-2022

This possible coup is thinking the unthinkable, and would probably mean civil (and world-) war. During this omicron (little O) scare many weird things might happen, which would be impossible during stabler times.
Harry_Red on December 20, 2021 · at 4:47 am EST/EDT

If the Europeans continue with their suicidal economic and energy policies, there will be no need to defeat them militarily. They are going to destroy themselves. Russia is turning East while waiting for Europe to destroy itself.

European superiority is ingrained in the history and culture of the people (not only elites, but all levels of society) and did not decrease even after catastrophic world wars because in order to remove or change such an ideology it needs a prolonged period (two to three generations) of becoming second or third class world citizens. We are heading towards that scenario.
- Anemm on December 20, 2021 · at 3:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  Ted Koppel (Lights Out) and various civil engineering types have been saying for quite some time that if our whole (badly neglected) electrical grid goes down, it can take up to 18 months to get it functioning again. The big transformers aren’t made in this country, and I think we order them, each one with individual specifications, from China. They also estimate that if that happened, at the end of a year 90% of the US population would be dead. Sunspots or whatever could do it. I’d guess that Zone B knows all this.
Arioch on December 20, 2021 · at 4:52 am EST/EDT

It seems funny how you both notices a thing, and yet stayed blind to it.

> Besides, the Russians have no intentions or capabilities, to invade the EU anyway

correct

> So by making her demands public, Russia has (for the first time and finally!!) also sent a message to the people of the West. This message can be summarized like this: we don’t want war, but if you insist, we will oblige.

wrong, or actually – half-correct.

I think your summary missed (and summary should not miss any important thing, or it is not summary_ one crucial reason why Russia went public with this “winter counter-offensive” ultimatum: Russia publicly puts limit to her claims! Russia publicly says “we are not going at cold war to rule-the-world, our pretenses are stretched upon this, this and that, but no further”.

IOW Russia’s message to Western Europe is like “was your life unbearable in 1997? No, it was okay? Then you have nothing to bother about in 2021 either. Just pretend looking other way and do not jumpt into this mess, it is not your fight, we are not going to your backyards, we want this and that, and do you really care about those swaths you lived perfectly well without in 1997?”

The publicity of this “winter counter-offensive” is not only serves to limit NATO, equally important is that it serves to limit Russia, and thus give implicit warranties to those Westerners who would, hopefully, manage to ssomehow tay out of this fight they have no stake in.
- Larchmonter445 on December 20, 2021 · at 12:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Arioch,
  
  Very perceptive analysis!
  
  Russia has made it very clear that a sphere of influence is granted to the West.
  
  Whether Russia stays involved with the West, via trade and natural gas, or not, and turns completely to the East for trade and cultural linkage, Russia must have a safe backyard. Thus, the Ultimatums.
rob on December 20, 2021 · at 5:06 am EST/EDT

I think you are spot on. Charlemagne started a war with Russia, but Russia finished it. Napoleon started a war, but Russia finished it. Hitler started a war, but Russia finished it. Only the blind could not see the picture here. The US has started 2 cold wars, but Russia will finish the second.
Egbert on December 20, 2021 · at 5:37 am EST/EDT

I agreed with some of the comments of honourable Mr. Saker and some not. I for one think the problem is not much with Europeans as it is more with America who goads the Europeans in a slave-master relation. Russia must face America directly and get the problem over with quickly than Europeans. In Ukraine which European country apart from UK who is doing minor irrelavant training and giving advice is supplying weapons , and funding Ukraine. It is none other than the US. The only thing Russia must do to send a message to the US is to revisit the Cuban crisis to point the missile directly to the US to slug it out in a fight. We must not forget that the internet we all enjoy now to interact with the world and to propagate OUR THOUGHTS AND IDEAS and problems was invented by a British an European and most good things and inventions we enjoy in life was brought by the Europeans.
- joey_n on December 20, 2021 · at 6:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  I second that.
  I’ve been told multiple times that the Anglo-Saxon elites have long aimed to drive a wedge between Europe (Germany especially) and Russia, as the combination of engineering capabilities and natural resources could threaten Anglophone hegemony (although how much longer the ‘engineering capabilities’ part remains credible is in doubt).
  This is one reason it irks me when someone somewhere waxes gleefully, salivates, etc. over the prospect of Russia cutting ties with Europe because of the words and actions of governmental puppets that serve the interests of their USian overlords. No doubt, said European politicians have acted irresponsibly, but how differently would it pan out were it not for the USA’s actions behind the scenes?
  
  This may sound crazy to some, but my theory is that the Anglo-American elites have managed to conceal their manipulation well enough to fool non-Westerners into thinking that said puppets act the way they do without external pressure. Case in point, whenever a German politician says or does something stupid about Russia, there is at least one voice arguing that Stalin was wrong to oppose the (USA- and UK-conceived) Morgenthau Plan in 1945.
durlin on December 20, 2021 · at 6:13 am EST/EDT

The beating of the war drums by the Zionists of occupied Palestine reverberating ever more loudly demanding that the US destroy Iran is becoming more frantic. Europe is now blaming Iran for the failure of negotiations concerning the JPCOA basically giving a nod to the AngloZionist war party to at least begin planning and war games in order to conclude the Oded Yinon Plan. The Israels know the state of things here in the US and can guess their time is running out to force the US into at least one more war for them. The Russian/Chinese threat if either one of them is attacked then the other will settle their pressing local problem is known, maybe the timing of this ultimatum has a lot to do with the possible coming war with Iran, or at least partially. There is a lot of talk of a two front war for the US, another one sounds like it has been added.+
Nemirni on December 20, 2021 · at 7:25 am EST/EDT

Kumanovo agreement flashbacks. But this time, in reverse.

This is most likely a last chance to solve the Ukraine problem without an all out war. Russia knows that the US won’t agree to it, it essentialy is using the West’s tactic against the West itself.

So then the Russians have an excuse to invade the Ukraine, saying “We gave you a chance, now it’s too late.”

I see literally no other reason for this.
Niels Engelsted on December 20, 2021 · at 7:27 am EST/EDT

Fine analysis, only it uses “Will that be good for Biden?”, as a measure stick. Biden is an old man, past his past, will he even know what’s good for him? Certainly not to be seen to cave in to the Russians. His political reputation is probably more important to him than his life. Besides the belief that God will intervene on the side of the angels is prevalent in the US. You are counting on the existence of a measure of rationality, which can be brought in play even if the situation heats up, and that I fear is the weak spot in your argument.
- Harry_Red on December 20, 2021 · at 3:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  Biden is written in quotation marks.
  
  See Saker’s terminology page:
  /terminology/
JJ on December 20, 2021 · at 7:33 am EST/EDT

via twitter

“Head of the Russian Delegation in Vienna on Arms Control. Views are my own.

Russia will give a military response if NATO continues to attack sore spots, – head of the Russian Permanent Mission delegation in Vienna for arms control OSCE Gavrilov…..”

translated from Russian….might be an idea to check exact wording and meaning

hmmm. For someone so official with such responsibility to give such a personal warning and “promise” so to speak ……. portends that plans already made will be enacted upon.

*******************

Nato must be ritually disembowelled . brought to nought….. a laughing stock …..a monster imprisoned ….that no longer bleeds countries budgets to feed the ever hungry military and arms manufacturing machine. EU must decide it has a voice of independance and self responsibility to disengage from hysteria and deal with realism …..those politicians who serve that agenda must also be brought to nothing .
common man on December 20, 2021 · at 7:52 am EST/EDT

Many very competent people write on this blog. I am less competent than they are. But at my level of understanding, if the ultimatum is launched now it is because something very worrying has already been done (Nuclear bombs deployed too close???? Or something else, but very serious.)
- Nemirni on December 20, 2021 · at 8:49 am EST/EDT
  
  The West is openly arming the Ukraine with heavy weapons and pushing it to the brink of war with Donbas. What more needs to be done?
  
  Russia is tired of pretending. What would happen if it allows such open arming of it’s closest neighbour? No excuses this time; if NATO rejects this “offer”, the gloves are off.
  - common man on December 20, 2021 · at 9:20 am EST/EDT
    
    There are several commentators on this blog who agree that ukies army is not a great threat to Russia. The red line has been crossed, or several red lines at once. And Russia has decided that this is the time for the final explanation, before the enemy regroups or becomes even more threatening.
Petri Krohn on December 20, 2021 · at 8:08 am EST/EDT

I see two uses for the ultimatum.

1) Russia will consider the draft treaties as existing international law. If the US or NATO oversteps the red lines defined in the draft treaty, Russia will consider it an act of war and reserves the right to respond militarily.

The US will never agree to any part of this. Besides they are agreement-incapable. Even if the agreement was signed it would never be ratified in Congress. But by acknowledging the existence of the draft and not protesting loudly enough the US becomes a party to a mutual understanding.

2) Russia redefines the status quo ante bellum. Russia now sees everything from 1997 as part of the Western war of aggression. Any peace treaty will have to return the status to that of 1996, the last year of peace.

The near future will likely see an escalation. When that happens, there is no turning back to 2021.
Patrick Donnelly on December 20, 2021 · at 8:52 am EST/EDT

Orwell’s Oceania is vulnerable.

Its major cities are by the oceans or the Great Lakes. Clathrates make excellent tsunami and can be set off with a few hundred tons of explosives.

An excellent first strike, of natural causes, of course, to save blushes, would be a Naval Depot or oil extraction facilities.

The USA established this at Aceh and then went for broke at Fukushima.
- Anemm on December 20, 2021 · at 4:30 pm EST/EDT
  
  Or imagine mainland USA suddenly functioning at an 1800’s level, without 1800’s skills. A solar burst then knocked out the telegraph system – sparks flying from the wires – but that was all, and dependence on telegraphs then was minor. Relatively easy for a major power to produce that effect artificially, though. And now we depend seriously on electricity. Check out the civil engineers’ reports. Got firewood? Got a reliable water source? Manual everything? Know how to feed yourself? It’s late December now. Winter Is Coming. Soon.
Andres on December 20, 2021 · at 9:02 am EST/EDT

“Because the truth is that the USA has only two options left: a “Kabul style” retreat from Europe or an orderly, negotiated “rearrangement” of the European collective security system (which, let’s not forget, the USA screwed up all by itself, a true disaster for which the USA is now totally responsible for).”

I think that an important factor should also be taken into account: The MIC and its impact in the economy.

Would the defense related industries accept an orderly retreat? It would be a deadly blow again their interests, a real nightmare: Demilitarizing and descalating in Europe without any traumatic event. How would they sell weapons to the vassals after that, given the myriad of social needs?

How would these industries keep inflating the related stock prices? I read that in the last 30 years they increased the stock values 11-fold. Are retirement funds, 401Ks, investment funds, etc, based at least partially on the performance of these stocks? Would the Blackrocks, Fidelities, Vanguards and the like be able to support a flattening, if not a nose diving, on the value of these stocks?

Not to mention the roughly 3 million employees of the MIC companies.

“Why did the Russians choose this method?”

Another view could be that of a chess game (Russians are good at that): Russia makes just a couple of moves at the proper time and improves significantly its strategic position at a very low cost. For instance, now that the red lines are clearly marked, any NATO deployment further East will need a reassurance that military units, airfields and garrisons are properly protected. This will increas significantly the cost of deployment.
- unimperator on December 20, 2021 · at 10:06 am EST/EDT
  
  I tend to agree, in order to ensure Nato deployments in East Europe (Ukraine), Nato needs to send forces with a guarantee factor of over 1 (more forces than initially allocated) just to ensure their safety. The problem is, Nato doesn’t have effective anti air defense.
  
  This means more targets which can be hit with more variety of weapons. If it comes to that, I bet “land grabbing” isn’t really the objective – the objective is to kill the Ukrainian army and Nato deployments en masse, which are breaking the peace in Donbass. An initial limited war in Ukraine – after that the threat has been removed and peace can be restored, the marked red lines were marked and crossed. If Nato escalates, it will have that much less to fight with, following that limited war.
  
  But yes, the EU vassals are getting weaker. Waiting it out in relative peace is a better solution if the Donbass issue could be contained, somehow. But this isn’t something the Davos trans-Atlantic folks can afford.
Ralph Conner on December 20, 2021 · at 9:20 am EST/EDT

I believe that there are a few points that havnt been discussed. I see a way the ultimatum could be used against Russia. If Russia is going to disarm or De NATO the Baltic states and 404 the ZioNazis can simply use it as propaganda to stop North Stream and ect. They certainly could care less about those states. They can remove the missles from Europe to prevent loosing a war and their MSM will present it to the masses as a win, just like the Cuban Missle Crisis. Russia will get what it needs, ie security on its borders and so will likely not push point 7 or the other issues. And the Zionazis will have won the larger battle. Hopefully, Rus knows this and is prepared. But Russia seems a bit niave in negotiations with the West to me. Peace.
tedrichard on December 20, 2021 · at 9:29 am EST/EDT

with russia and china being closely aligned on a multitude of issues it seems to me unlikely russia would want to cause any disruption on any level to the efforts china has made in bringing the olympics feb-4-20 2022 to the chinese nation…… just my opinion
Marko on December 20, 2021 · at 9:52 am EST/EDT

I do not agree with Saker (as I would like to be able to), the Empire is not going to leave Europe. The Europen elites are all in atlatnist mindset. The world without US supremacy is unthinkable to elites of Germany, France, etc Like Eastern Europeans, they are just happy to serve the Empire.

The West, as they understood that they are in decline, that the world domination is over is in fact pushing Russia out of Europe. There shall be no cooperation wit Germany, France… Putin’s dream is over. They surrounded Russia with military bases, they pursue very arrogant and aggressive policy. Even against own interests, European countries are severing their ties with Russia. They can apparently stand that.

Shall Russian population accept to be part of Asian world?

The West cannot defeat Russia, but in can isolate it, exclude it. Since Peter the Great Russia was also Europen country. The west is now trying to restrict that.
But that is unnatural as Russia is really also an European country.
- Bo Robinson on December 20, 2021 · at 3:50 pm EST/EDT
  
  Wahoo. You sound very depressed.
- Bourbaki on December 21, 2021 · at 5:01 am EST/EDT
  
  I don’t know Russians first-hand but I seriously doubt they really need the EU save maybe as a sustainable source of absurd humour (maybe an aspect of the final takedown of mainland Europe by the Brits)…
William H Warrick III MD on December 20, 2021 · at 10:14 am EST/EDT

The Neocon/Neoliberal fools in America are just Europe’s
descendants, and like their Ancestors continue to underestimate Russia, and this will lead to their Downfall.
David Kennedy on December 20, 2021 · at 10:26 am EST/EDT

“sink a USN ship or shoot down a USAF aircraft. That would mean war.” Neither is ‘good’ for Biden.

“only one method to get the Europeans back from la-la-land to the real world: Russia has to defeat them militarily.” “I very much doubt that the US deep state will be willing to commit mass suicide just to try (and fail!) to protect the EU.” Strange values are attributed to the USA: won’t risk a war over Europe, but sink a carrier, or an aircraft …? Remember Gary Powers and his U2?

The mainland USA needs to be realistically threatened to bring the ‘indispensable one’ to his senses.
Marko on December 20, 2021 · at 10:31 am EST/EDT

“The “ultimatums” are being ignored in the Western press. ”

This is very dangerous.
The are going to ignore Russian demands.
Natasa on December 20, 2021 · at 11:31 am EST/EDT

Pjotr Poroshenko is alredy left Ukraine. He started and lost the war for Donbas-then underwrote Minsk…

He is very clever person. Just in time….
- Cinderella99 on December 20, 2021 · at 3:32 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Ukrainian authorities accuse Petro Poroshenko of having helped pro-Russian separatists sell coal to Kyiv.”
  
  -Al Jazeera 1h ago
DJ on December 20, 2021 · at 11:54 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker,

thank you very much for this piece, which has a lot of material to chew on. Here are my two cents worth of opinion:

I think it’s a mistake to look at the proposals as a short-term ultimatum and expecting Russia to punish the US if the US does not sign the proposed treaties by a certain deadline. I note that no deadline has been given, and I would not expect one to be given in the future. Russia has not shown its willingness and ability to militarily force the US to do anything that Russia has asked for. Things in Syria that come to mind are (1) US troops in Al Tanf are still keeping islamist militias in control of the Rukban camp, (2) US troops are still occupying oil fields in Eastern Syria, (3) Israel is still bombing Syria, (4) Turkey was never militarily punished for shooting down a Russian fighter jet. Instead Russia has played the long game and gotten steadily stronger. Therefore I would not expect any short-term action initiated by Russia. Instead I would see this as another way to highlight Russia’s red lines, such as NATO-membership of Ukraine or an attack on Donbass. If they are violated, then Russia will act, also militarily. But if they are not, then Russia will just keep getting stronger.

All the best! Keep up the good fight!

DJ
Thane Coxon on December 20, 2021 · at 12:03 pm EST/EDT

Just a thought from an Orthodox Christian.

I really wish Russia will not use the bear as a symbol. It’s an externally imposed symbol on Russia.

When the evangelical so called “Christians” read the Bible, they see that the anti-Christ has the feet of a bear. Then they get duped by their heretical pastors into thinking that since Russia is the bear, that Russia is anti-Christ.

I constantly have to remind my non-Orthodox friends that Russia is the double headed eagle.

My state of California has a bear on its flag, and California certainly is anti-Christ!!!
A. Dane on December 20, 2021 · at 2:18 pm EST/EDT

During the last 75 years, most international trade has been conducted in US dollars. The US Dollar´s reserve currency status has enabled the US to finance a 75 year of trade deficit, by printing trillions of Dollars.
The US has been close to Bankruptcy since the millennium, and definitely since the financial crisis of 2008.
Today the US debt has spiraled out of control.
As of Dec.2021, the US Gov. Debt to GDP is 133%; While Russia has a Debt to GDP of 17%.
The US has lost control over its negative trade imbalance. The US economy is in decline.
The US has rampant inflation caused by massive QE injections since 2008, which is destroying the Dollar.

The US led SWIFT system was for decades the only system for international payment transactions.
However, this role began to erode when the US used SWIFT as a political weapon.
The US first expelled Iran and North Korea from the SWIFT system in 2014.
Washington then began threatening to expel Russia from the system as well.
And in 2018 nine US allies was threatened by sanctions.
In 2014, Russia responded by developing its own SPFS payment system.
In 2015, China responded by creating its own CIPS payment system.
In 2019, the nine European Nations banded together and created the INSTEX payment system.
This week Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping integrated the Chinese CIPS and Russian SPFS, and made them available to third parties in trade settlements.

In 2015, approximately 90% of trade between Russia and China was settled in dollars.
By 2020, the dollar-denominated trade between Russia and China had been reduced to only 46%.
Russia and China has been leading the way in cutting the share of US dollars in its foreign reserves.
However, De-dollarizing is also happening in trade with EU, Latin America, Turkey, Iran, India, etc.

The IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank have also been used as instruments of US policy.
In 2015, The launch of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was a watershed moment in the global financial architecture, as all the major allies of the US (except Japan) signed up to the AIIB, thus making one more shoe drop from the US monetary hegemony.

Investor Jim Rogers says the US economy will inevitably put an end to the Dollar’s global hegemony.
“The US economy is in rough shape”. Rogers said.
Annual inflation in the US reached 6.8% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years, and is reportedly on the brink of hitting the 7.2% mark recorded at the end of June 1982.
“No country in the world has ever been as indebted as the US, and I think it could lead to the end of dollar dominance.” Rogers said.

The financial partnership of the world’s largest energy importer China and the world’s largest energy exporter Russia is a death sentence to the Reserve currency status of the US Dollar.
As the Dollar loses its reserve currency status, the global wave of dollars is returning home to America creating Hyperinflation when it hits its shores.
JJ on December 20, 2021 · at 2:38 pm EST/EDT

sputniknews 1 hr ago

Earlier, Russia called for a resumption of the NATO-Russia channel of communication along the military line amid simmering tensions near the Ukrainian border.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday told Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, that Washington is ready to engage in diplomacy with Moscow, including through the NATO-Russia Council and the OSCE.
According to the White House, Sullivan noted that the dialogue must be based on reciprocity and “address our concerns about Russia’s actions”.
“Substantive progress can only occur in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation”, the White House said, describing the Monday conversation between the officials.

The talks between Sullivan and Ushakov come shortly after Moscow offered a handful of security proposals that it seeks to negotiate, among them a promise by NATO to refrain from any military activity in Ukraine or other Eastern European counties.”
xvfsb on December 20, 2021 · at 2:47 pm EST/EDT

What do people make of this report?

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov is now explicitly stating that this proposal was NOT an ultimatum but rather an “invitation to a serious conversation” and that Russia has already formed a delegation to negotiate with the USA.

The report states: In the Russian initiative “there is nothing that would rule out the negotiation process,” Ryabkov said. “On the contrary, we are open to dialogue and negotiation process and are ready to do it as quickly as possible,” he said. “This is very serious. Our delegation has been formed.” At the briefing, it was indicated that Geneva was proposed as a possible meeting place for Washington, and that Russian representatives were ready literally at any moment to go there or to any other place that did not require American visas.

Russia and NATO: What’s Next?
https://tass.ru/opinions/13246461?utm_source=cont&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=cont_teaser
- Jacob's Ladder on December 20, 2021 · at 3:39 pm EST/EDT
  
  I’m sorry but this is feeble and embarrassing. Why? Because many intelligent people read this (correctly) as a kind of ultimatum. Now, it transpires that we were all stupid and incapable of mental nuance.
  
  First, their demands were rejected by everybody – including Latvia – and now they are de facto begging for talks. I am really sad that this is happening to Russia but it was predictable.
Zabir on December 20, 2021 · at 2:50 pm EST/EDT

Let the cowards who hanker after and boast of war against Russia eat their words because it will not happen and the least reason is the certainty of their doom.
watcher on December 20, 2021 · at 3:40 pm EST/EDT

Saker

Thankyou for adding the Chinese support. I believe it is very important and may be one of the key reasons Russia has issued this ultimatum (or issues for discussion).

China is even more on alert than Russia. I think this is rather significant. https://www.rt.com/news/543208-china-condemns-pentagon-impunity/

Just think if the USS Connecticut which mysteriously hit a mountain. The most obvious explanation is that it was cruising INSIDE Chinese waters and hit some defensive devise (mine, drone, barrier). The point is that this dangerous, probably nuclear armed submarine was too close to Chinese ports. The US has refused to reveal just where this mysterious unmarked mountain had relocated itself. This almost certainly means it was somewhere where it should not have been.

My guess is that this incident, combined with anti Chinese rhetoric, coming in particular from its US poodle Australia, has made China accept reality that war is possibly coming and soon.

This action by Russia is an attempt to divert course. i hope it is successful.

My concern is that I am not convinced the USA is functioning rationally. Yes the collective Biden is probably rational enough, just as trump and some of his people were. Trump however as you note was quickly defanged and I am just not sure who is powerful enough in the collective Biden.

As a side note i find it a little sad when commentators here (I do not mean the article writers but in the comments section) carry on as if the personal characteristics of the US President matters much. Far, far more that in most other countries, the comments and public views of US politicians are just sham- made for political point scores and votes, rather than stuff they really believe. Moreover they are very, very rarely actors with real agency ie power to do anything.

Those US Presidents who actually try to lead or have some desire to actually govern, have a very short tenure. Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Daddy Bush, Trump etc. The remaining presidents since Kennedy have been little more than puppets. Reagan, and little Bush were congenitally stupid (and demented in his second term for Reagan), Obama and now Biden weak puppets. I deliberately leave out the Clinton collective (and probably Johnson) because I am not sure if they were puppets or puppeteers.

So back to the main issue. Has Biden collective enough power or wisdom to actually negotiate anything and /or not to deliberately embark on a catastrophic war. I see some rays of common sense – Milley may be a turncoat and underhanded but it seems he has enough brains to try to avoid nuclear confrontation. But has he any real power.

So who really does run the USA? Not simplistic answers ie MIC, or Israel, or Wall St . These are all powerful and influential, but exactly WHO is in charge – which people or agencies really run the joint?
- Cinderella99 on December 20, 2021 · at 5:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  re: USS Connecticut, I found this attempt to explain things interesting. Only problem with the video is that the info is too fast.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeJLwUfLcEU
  - Initial R from Indonesia on December 20, 2021 · at 9:00 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks for sharing that Link.
    
    Extremely interesting, I barely have any idea how complex Naval warfare is, very technologically advance. That being said, China’s PLA Navy could easily sink that ship and still get away with it because, what will USSA do to punish tem? Send more ships to be destroy?
Suk on December 20, 2021 · at 4:42 pm EST/EDT

WOW! That’s impressive! Look where we are! Russia surprised, and made a very strong decision. Russia knows something. The fact is that philosophically the nation of Russia is ahead of the entire planet. We are alive, at the most important and decisive moment in the planet’s history. Apparently Putin acted on the timing, at the most precise and opportune moment in history. Putin has maybe 20 more years to live, and this was the time. Trump could soon die, and conservatives will have to act. What turns now is a great mystery. The real truth is that all the newspapers and media fail to show the true actions behind the scenes. The truly powerful rich don’t appear on Forbes magazine’s list. I agree with the vast majority of what the saker/Andrei thinks. I agree with him that Europe is completely numbed by a historically mistaken mentality, and in that reverie, the European leadership and its intellectuals will only wake up with kinetic military warfare, with gunfire, with blood. They are so far removed from the knowledge of reality, of the truth, that it is impossible to get out of this hallucination and paranoia any other way. It’s inevitable. As for the empire, perhaps it flees war to have the necessary time to organize itself. Big unknown. The text is great, very well written, organized. Analysts have to be careful with the information, because the empire will have an eye on everything! With covid, and with all this tension, ultimatum and moral rot, we have reached the last moment of humanity. Despite this, miracles do exist! Let’s continue to do good and the search for justice!
Outlaw Historian on December 20, 2021 · at 7:01 pm EST/EDT

My detailed comment’s are present within the article I published on the treaty proposals as is my hypothesis regarding Russia & China tag teaming against the Outlaw US Empire. Oh and although I omit saying so, all the interviews, briefings and overt discussions were all aimed at Russians as well as people like me who analyze contemporary events. Actions by the Outlaw US Empire allowed the opening China and Russia awaited and they’re now capitalizing. And the very public opposition/obstruction of NS2 by the Outlaw US Empire is there for all Europeans to see and feel through their purses. Diesen’s Saturday analysis on “Who is to Blame for the Ukraine Crisis” contains a very useful set of polling results from Ukraine where over 2/3s of the nation know they’re under foreign control, which IMO can have great consequences as many will welcome Russian liberation as long as Russia wipes out the oligarchs and Nazis.

As for the Outlaw US Empire’s Duopoly, they may want a war to cover their crimes, but they can’t be certain they’ll avoid being targeted by Russia, which Putin has said it will do. And if there was ever a ripe moment for a citizen’s rebellion against the fascist Neoliberals, 2022 would be the time.
Little Black Duck on December 20, 2021 · at 7:23 pm EST/EDT

It seems that Russia and China have reached an understanding and agreed on their objectives.
I hope it includes liberation for the citizens of the west.
Given the degenerate social and political condition of the AZ empire and given its trajectory, it would be dangerous to achieve only a balance of power with it.
Is it not the opportunity of a life time to relieve the west of its burden?
If not taken it will surely be back doing its evil in no time.
Lone Wolf on December 20, 2021 · at 9:05 pm EST/EDT

Threat perception is a bitch, and war is a dive into a subjective and objective reality in which delusions are the surest and shortest path to defeat.

The US political-military establishment is a prisoner of its own myths and delusions, and one of them is the “superiority” and “invincibility” of the US army. Their perception of the Russian “threat” is seen through the prism of these myths, and Putin’s “ultimatum” will be parsed by different branches of the political spectrum, all of them interested in feeding their own delusions to their political mill.

Putin’s “ultimatum” (can we call it a negotiating platform wrapped in warning paper?) has been in preparation for two decades, ever since NATO declared “victory” against the “iron curtain.” Putin’s strategy was to quietly enter an arms race to put Russia light-years ahead of the West in weapons technology, R&D. Russia is now on solid footing, a moment Putin has been preparing for after trying hard for many years and fail to make the “kindergarten in crack-cocaine” (what a visual), understand that Russia (and Putin’s) dream was to create a united Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

The latest attempt of NATO to use Banderastan’s “patriotic” criminal attack on their own people, justified as a struggle against “aggressive” Russia, touched the limits of Russia’s patience, who could see NATO’s true expansionistic intentions and strategic surrounding of Russia behind their “support” for the Ukronazis. Previous to this buildup, Russia’s breaking of “diplomatic” relations with NATO, after they unilaterally decided to expel 8 Russians from the NATO office on bogus accusations of “espionage,” was a harbinger of the path Russia was about to take.

We can expect a wide range of interpretations of Russia’s “ultimatum” in the US and Eurostan. Some countries are beginning to understand Russia is not bluffing, e.g. UK officially declared, following on Biden’s statement along the same lines earlier, that no soldiers will be sent to Ukraine if a war breaks out with Russia. The reason? Ukraine is not a NATO member. Funny, ain’t it. They can spur Banderastan to go to war with Russia, until the bear show them his teeth, then “Ukraine is not a NATO member.” Like the proverbial fox that couldn’t reach the grapes and left because “they weren’t ripe.”

https://avia-pro.net/news/v-velikobritanii-zayavili-chto-ne-otpravyat-svoi-voyska-na-ukrainu-dazhe-v-sluchae-vtorzheniya

On another note, on news that may or may not be related to that decision, a recent article in The Sun (https://avia-pro.net/news/sun-udar-tyazhyoloy-rossiyskoy-mbr-sarmat-unichtozhit-velikobritaniyu) announced that,
{“In the UK, there was a panic over the destructive power of the latest Russian Sarmat ICBM.
Against the background of the Russian heavy intercontinental ballistic missile Sarmat, which is preparing to take up combat duty, which can carry a nuclear warhead with a capacity of 8 to 12 megatons, the UK announced that Russia could destroy the kingdom in just a few minutes, as a result of which any aggression from London against Moscow is completely unacceptable…”}
It looks as if some “Western partners” are coming to their senses. Hopefully Boris Johnson wise decision would create a trend.

Unfortunately the trigger for a war is still in the hands of Banderastan, which is suffering from a deep psychosis. Drunk in corruption and a neo-nazi “power” trip, we cannot expect Banderastan to sober up enough to understand the consequences of a suicidal decision that can compromise the peace of the Eurasian mass. And the world.

As usual, let’s hope for the best…

Lone Wolf
ADKC on December 20, 2021 · at 11:05 pm EST/EDT

It was a demand but not an ultimatum. An ultimatum would be one step away from war and would involve a timescale – this is clearly not the case.
- Jim Christian on December 21, 2021 · at 12:49 am EST/EDT
  
  Interesting still, nothing of any of this in WashPost. Plenty about eliminating extremism IN the military, however.
Flash on December 21, 2021 · at 12:27 am EST/EDT

Russia was preparing for this for quiet some time. They needed to consolidate a strategic cooperation with China. China can put the necessary pressure point on the west and alleviate those on Russia coming from the west.
It took Putin about 5 years to do so. He just waited another two to iron out all the details.
All he was doing for the last 7 years is lay out the winning conditions for this move.
Check mate.
jiri on December 21, 2021 · at 1:59 am EST/EDT

If the Russians are proposing a security architecture for Europe how long before China proposes one for South and East Asia- i.e. Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Philipines?
- Realist on December 21, 2021 · at 12:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  Indeed. And perhaps Russia and China have not devised a military response to Washington’s refusal to recognise red lines or the validity of the other side’s quest for security. Perhaps the military response was a purposeful false lead. Perhaps Russia will cut off ALL gas and oil to the EU and to the United States while China cuts off all delivery of drugs, electronics and other integral parts of the American economy until such a package is agreed upon between the US and both nations. How can the US even fight a war these days if China stops delivering critical weapons parts to them and Russia slacks off on the needed fuel. Eventually the American brainiacs would extrapolate to an end point to the impasse not at all favorable to them, especially if other players start provoking them and causing them to deplete their stockpiles of war materiel.
Realist on December 21, 2021 · at 4:27 am EST/EDT

Check out this nearly 7-year old lecture by Professor John Mearsheimer essentially describing the history that has unfolded in Ukraine over the entire intervening chunk of time. It’s as if the man is a prophet or has access to a time machine. Why was this never more widely circulated during that interval, and why have only 150,000 people viewed it? All of our country should view it and digest its meaning. Whoever sequestered this man’s ideas left me thinking that the late Stephen F. Cohen was the only rational American scholar on Russia, its history, society and politics left in this country of willfully ignorant philistines. Everything Mearsheimer says in this lecture still holds true today. (He only misses the mark when he opines that the West needs and hopes to recruit Russia in an alliance against China. Sure ain’t gonna happen now!) Mearsheimer makes the brilliant point that if the US loses its all-in bet against Russia and Putin the world pays a stiff price. If the US wins in this bet against Russia the world still loses! Maybe in a much bigger way than the fools think. A weak disintegrating Russia cohabiting this world with an insufferable regime of arrogant but incompetent bullies inclined to kick around anyone it pleases? That’s not a recipe for peace and stability. There will be no real “friends” (or even countries with a common interest) left to help bail out the cocky Yanks when they inevitably step into a cess pit over their heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
- NotStrained on December 21, 2021 · at 10:40 am EST/EDT
  
  Mr. Mearsheimer and Mr. Cohen were both active in evangelising detente in the late 60’s into the 1970’s, but the variance with some others was in divergent purposes.
  
  The ideas of Mr. Mearsheimer and Mr. Cohen were predicated on notions of convergence, whereas the strategies of others were informed by transcendence in the understanding that sustainability was not achieveable for parties seeking detente as proved to be the case.
- Prof on December 21, 2021 · at 1:36 pm EST/EDT
  
  I show this to my students every year. I ask them to compare readings by Cohen and Mearsheimer to Michael McFaul’s book. They all think McFaul is a liar, and agree with the realists
- bystander 04 on February 20, 2022 · at 3:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Realist” – the ideas similar to those of Mearsheimer and S. Cohen were years before published by the German/French publicist, Peter Scholl-Latour in his books “Russland im Zangengriff” (Russia in the vise), 2004, in “Zwischen den Fronten” (Between the Frontlines) 2007, and “Der Weg in den neuen Kalten Krieg” (Road to the new cold war) in 2008 (!). People like Scholl Latour and Cohen were at that time vilified, called all kinds of names, the mildest ones were “Putin-Versteher” (The One who understands Putin), and “appeasers”…Peter Scholl-Latour was well known in Germany, but fell in disfavor because his ideas were not politically correct. He was educating Germans too well.
Max Redgers on December 21, 2021 · at 6:07 am EST/EDT

There is some undertanding in US of where, how and why we are at this juncture:

https://www.cnsnews.com/index.php/commentary/patrick-j-buchanan/what-do-about-russian-ultimatum

Of course, such commentaries would be labelled by any MSM outlets and “influencers” as rabidly “right wing” or “pro Putin” etc….that is IF any MSM outlet in UK, EU or USA could tear themselves away from their otherwise purposeful and purile agendas.

However, i must also challenge some voiced perceptions about the environment in Ukraine.

People, at least in western Ukraine, are going about their normal business. No shelters are being opened and the major issues are the 10% inflation and heating bills, and a depressingly subservient acceptance that their flag waving politicians are corrupt. Nothing new.

More telling….military hospitals, in Lviv to date for example, are not on standby. Doctors are accepting (paying) civilian patients for routine operations and the wards are not cleared.

There is some mature analysis by some news outlets, and informed assessment outside of the stock …”The Russians are going to invade”. There are commentaries which review the predicament of Ukraine within a geo-political panorama. At last.

I also think that the discourse “on the street” is becoming less emotive, and more reflective, as people realise that EU/Nato are not in the business of matching “words with deeds”…they increasingly recognise “weasly words” and posturing.

Indeed, a few more people are becoming receptive to a “Ukrainian solution for Ukraine”….. Non-alignment.

I am increasingly under the perception that at last people in Ukraine realise that Ukraine would be left to haemorrhage its own blood for traitorously corrupt politicans, who tread the corridors of power in Kyiv wrapped in the Ukrainian flag whilst holding the US flag in their right hand, the EU flag in their left hand and the turkish flag up their arses.
- NotStrained on December 21, 2021 · at 10:13 am EST/EDT
  
  “I am increasingly under the perception that at last people in Ukraine realise..”
  
  No, not at last.
  
  The perception of some in Ukraine emulate your process of discovery – that’s what friends are for (not only) as the song refers.
  
  As do abscence makes the heart grow fonder, whilst familiarity breeds contempt.
GenEarly on December 21, 2021 · at 9:26 am EST/EDT

How does Any of this scenario fit in with the various NWO Plans to manage the Decline of the USA into a New USSA socialist entity and/or a Break up of the USA into several Regional Governments as dissident States unite???
China seems to be the NWO “choice” for World Leadership???
I do agree that any alliance between Russia and the USA has been forbidden and fought by the Deep State/NWO/Banksters.
Biden is irrelevant, just a dimwitted Pawn that was installed as the WH Resident in a Domestic/NWO election Coup.
waxwing on December 21, 2021 · at 9:57 am EST/EDT

A very sobering assessment. However, there is a realistic chance that the West, through incompetence & hubris might ‘defang’ themselves within a few years. The US in particular could implode economically to an extent that would scupper their military capabilities. The US might do something stupid out of desperation, forcing a response, but otherwise I would advise caution for Russia.
- NotStrained on December 21, 2021 · at 11:04 am EST/EDT
  
  ” I would advise caution for Russia.”
  
  That process has been ongoing since at least 1971 as illustrated by twin questions:
  
  How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback?
  
  Do you think your opponent is as stupid as you are ?
  
  informed by the understanding that neither omniscience nor perfection are options in interaction.
Jonathan Jarvis on December 21, 2021 · at 11:18 am EST/EDT

When a chool teacher says to a naughty bullying child go sit in the corner of the classroom with a dunce cap on….is that a request or ultimatum….or a threat for potential punishment or banishment……
S Brennan on December 21, 2021 · at 12:01 pm EST/EDT

You live alone; you awaken from your bed at 02:00 AM; human sounding noises are coming from another room. You reach for your charged weapon, with the thumb of your firing hand you quietly move the selector switch of your carbine from safe to semi, heart racing, you creep into the other room. There you sight an silhouette unhurriedly going through every drawer. You realize that your car is in the shop, a neighbor had dropped you off yesterday, this guy thinks the house is empty.

It’s an easy shot, do you shoot him without warning? You shift your firing position slightly to take concealment and some cover from the tiled bathroom wall. You wait until the man has moved into a position where he can’t move to either his left or, to his right, only forward or back, now, there is no escape for him, just surrender or a bloody end. You have been patient, you will give the fool one last chance, whatever the outcome, your conscience will be clean…FREEZE!

Many would think the homeowner a fool for not taking the first shot available, most cops I know would; it is a reaction based on fear, a lack of knowledge, of themselves, of the outcome. But the homeowner never really gave the intruder a chance, he simply maneuvered himself [and the intruder] into a position where the option to spare the intruder was possible.

Is that weakness..or..is that strength of character? In the near future we may well know but…not now. And so it goes.
Wim on December 21, 2021 · at 1:30 pm EST/EDT

It looks like the US is setting up a trap for Europe: at the moment it is under pressure to say what it will do when Russia attacks Ukraine (cut off Nordstream 2, throw Russia out of Swift, etc). At the same time the US is egging on Ukraine. So quite likely the US is planning to pull off something in Ukraine that will force Russia to interfere (or be humiliated).

I would expect this ultimatum to be a reaction to this. It may not stop the US. But it might stop the Eurocrats from being so heavily involved like they once were on the Maidan. And that might give Kiev some pause for thought.
- xvfsb on December 21, 2021 · at 1:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  America wants to courageously fight Russia …. to the last Europeon.
  
  Europe has been so brainwashed since the end of World War 2 that it cannot see the obvious: America does NOT have allies. It never did. And it never will. America only has disposable assets/stooges, who will be disposed of, in order to save Uncle Satan.
  
  Indeed, if Europe cuts off Russian natural gas supplies with Nordstream 2, America will opportunistically move in and try to push America’s overpriced “Freedom Gas” on a desperate freezing Europe.