The below text is a copy of the speech that Andrew Korybko presented at the “”Soft Power” And Cultural Diplomacy In The 21st Century” international scientific conference at the People’s Friendship University in Moscow on 11 November.
First off, I’d like to warmly thank RUDN for hosting this event and the Institute of Strategic Research And Predictions for organizing it. My speech will be about how foreign actors are using soft power and cultural diplomatic means to further their geopolitical interests in the Balkans, particularly the countries of the former Yugoslavia. I’ll begin by informing you all about the strategic context at play here and then go on to describing the four forces that are active in this competition.
The Balkans are one of the most geostrategic regions in the world, lying at the crossroads of Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Another way to look at the region is to describe it as the fragmented space between economic giants Germany and Turkey that shares many civilizational similarities with Russia. We can divide the former Yugoslavia into two distinct groups, the Western and Central Balkans, with the first one being occupied by NATO and the EU, and the second one still free from their clutches. Slovenia, Croatia, and the Muslim-Croat entity of Bosnia form the Western Balkans, while Republika Srpska, Serbia, Montenegro, and the Republic of Macedonia constitute the Central Balkans. The West is trying to fully absorb the Central Balkan holdouts, and the main prize they’re aiming for is Serbia, the geopolitical and historical center of the Balkans.
It’s not that easy for them to succeed, however, because Serbia has very close and established bonds with Russia, and its people are increasingly disillusioned with the West. In response to the failed South Stream project, Russia announced Turkish Stream, which is projected to eventually run through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, and Hungary, and lay the basis for a Balkan Corridor that will connect the region to the global economy. I refer to the pipeline as Balkan Stream because I feel it’s more geographically inclusive and represents the broader ambitions that Russia is aiming for. Alongside this project, China has its own complementary one in building the “Balkan Silk Road”, a high-speed rail line from the Greek port of Piraeus to Budapest via Skopje and Belgrade. Here we see a perfect example of the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership in action.
The US plans to counter this by plotting another Hybrid War attempt in Macedonia, the gateway to the Balkans and the geo-critical chokepoint through which the Russian and Chinese infrastructure projects must first enter before reaching the heart of the region in Serbia. Thus, one can see the obvious friction playing out between the unipolar and multipolar worlds, or put another way, between the US and EU on one side, and Russia and China on the other. Unbeknownst to many, this intense geopolitical competition makes the Balkans one of the most contested and conflict-prone regions in the world today, and part of that rivalry is unfolding through soft power and cultural diplomatic means.
The four players involved are the Western bloc of the US and the EU, Russia, the Muslim Brotherhood-supporting nations of Turkey and Qatar, and China. Now I’ll briefly talk about the asymmetrical means that each of these actors use in trying to spread their influence through the Balkans.
Starting off with the West, it used to enjoy a previous monopoly on information in the region, both through direct ownership and indirect influence. This resulted in most Balkan information outlets being very pro-Western even up until this day. The West has worked hard to shape the mentality of the Balkan people and the way outsiders view them, and part of their objectives has been to demonize Serbia, and lately, the Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. The West also resorts to proxy control over the region as well, and it does this through the cultivation of pro-Western elite. Some of the means involved include scholarships to students, direct funding of anti-government NGOs or money laundering to them through very generous grant donations, and payoffs to political leaders and influence makers. The last example I’d like to bring up and I already mentioned before are the institutional levers of influence through NATO and the EU, which thankfully, the Central Balkans have become very cynical towards lately.
Moving along to the next actor, let me tell you about Russia’s soft presence in the region aside from the civilizational, religious, ethnic, and linguistic similarities it shares with its partners. After being mostly dormant in the Balkans over the past two decades, Russia is clearly back and intends to remain as a major actor for the foreseeable future. Many Balkan students are now studying in Russian universities, especially MGIMO, which shows how serious both they and Russia are about cultivating greater bilateral relations with the next generation of leaders. The Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund is an NGO that’s now active in the Balkans, and it hosts conferences and other important events that bring together local and Russian experts. The Russkiy Mir Foundation is also a strong part of Russian cultural diplomacy, and it has Russian Centers in Republika Serpska, Serbia, and Montenegro, which are all of the Central Balkan states except for Macedonia. Finally, Russia recently constructed a humanitarian center in Nis in southern Serbia, and this was used to help Serbia during last year’s unprecedented flooding and in providing assistance to it during the current refugee crisis.
Now I’d like to talk about Turkey and Qatar. I group these two states together in the same category of influence because of their ideological similarities in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which I’d like to remind everyone, is officially recognized as a terrorist group by Russia, Syria, and a few other states. Both of these countries are involved in NGO and religious work in Bosnia, especially in Sarajevo, and they also directly fund various projects there such as mosques. The city is also the regional headquarters of Al Jazeera Balkans, which broadcasts subtle pro-Islamic programming that also contains an anti-Serb and pro-Albanian message usually. Turkey works hand-in-hand with Qatar in supporting the ‘soft Islamization’ of Bosnia along the Erdogan model, where a constitutionally secular state slowly turns into a semi-religious one. However, it’s Albania that represents Turkey’s strongest foothold in the region, and its leadership is very close to Erdogan, who inaugurated the construction of the largest Balkan mosque earlier this year in Tirana. The Turkish President might be planning to shift his failed Neo-Ottoman policy from the Mideast to the Balkans in the near future, using Albania and Bosnia as his regional springboards, and depend on allied Qatar’s Al Jazeera Balkans to be his informational battering ram.
The last actor I’d like to talk to you all about is China, which is noticeably less visible than all the others and is a bit more mysterious in how its approach. The main element of its cultural diplomacy in the region is the Confucius Institutes that it has in all of the former Yugoslav states except for Bosnia. These are places where interested individuals can learn the Chinese language and various aspects of its culture and history, and they’re very apolitical. On the other hand, and only recently discovered, there are apparently a few Chinese-funded radio stations operating in the Balkans that nobody had known about until last week. A recent investigation by Reuters, likely tipped off by American intelligence, reports that China has been using front companies to create a network of pro-Chinese radio stations throughout the world. The US was in hysterics because the one in DC could broadcast to the CIA, Pentagon, and White House, but it seems like everyone overlooked the Balkan presence of this worldwide operation, despite it being indicated on Reuters’ map. According to them, China supposedly influences radio stations in Belgrade and Skopje, as well as in Budapest, and this likely isn’t a coincidence since these are the three capital cities that its Balkan Silk Road is expected to pass through. This suggests that China is taking subtle steps to enhance its image in these key states prior to the implementation of its high-speed rail plans.
So alright everybody, that’s all that I have to share with you today. Thank you very much for your attention, and I hope that I can inspire some of you to conduct your own investigative research into the Balkans and learn more about the unipolar and multipolar clash that’s presently going on there. Take care, and thanks again.
Seems more like an informative declaration then a speech in the classic sense. Speeches usually reach a delicious conclusion… This left me decidedly… Hungry.
What is crucial for the Serbs in the Balkans is to get new pro-Russian media.
I read somewhere on the internet that Russia is indeed planing a new TV station for Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro. Supposedly Putin ordered this. It will cost 11 million euros and the chief will be world famous film director Emir Kusturica, who is very pro-Russian.
If that news is true, Russia will easily take over “the central Balkans”.
Even without this, Montenegro is boiling. People there are very angry with the pro-Western government, there were clashes with the police some two weeks ago, tens of thousands were shouting : “NATO – nyet!”.
Dear Andrew,
Thank you for sharing your speech presented at the “”Soft Power” And Cultural Diplomacy In The 21st Century” international scientific conference at the People’s Friendship University in Moscow. I hope it was appreciated by all who attended, as it is by us here at the Vineyard of the Saker.
Rgds,
Veritas
Thank you Veritas, I appreciate it!
Reading the „theories“ by such „experts“ time and again assures me that new war in the Balkans is in the making, and very soon. All the imaginable „assets“ are being deployed to tell the Serbs what they like to hear, not what the reality is. „Russians are good“ – never mind if they use the same tactics and strategies as USA and NATO use. Make them (Serbs) believe that they are „choosing right“ – show the middle finger to the „evil West“ and join the „winning side“, no questions asked. And, in the end, be assured that you WILL rule them all again, all those filthy, „mother Russia-hating“ muslims in Bosnia, Croats, Montenegrinians, Albanians, Macedonians etc, etc. They will be weakened, either if they are with us or against us – only you will preserve your strength. Even „reasonable“ muslims (if that category exists at all) assure you of that: just listen to „shaikh“ Imran Hosein, he also tells you what you like to hear. He tells you exactly what you already „know“: Turkey bad, very bad – Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, good, the best! They love orthodox christians, Serbs in particular.
The Russian bear will just blow his breath, and „Bondsteel“ base (along with those in Bulgaria and Romania) will be dismantled in the matter of minutes, and those „west loving idiots“ will run and crowl in their holes, screaming.
Just like in „Masha and The Bear“!
Did we bother to ask them why (if that really is so) they think „the West“ is better then Russia, China and all other „progressives“? No, we know it is pathological, they just so happen to irrationally hate orthodox christianity, and there is nothing we can do about that. We can just „rationally“ hate them back! Did we try to be friendly with them? It is useless, as you know!
If they do not comply and drop dead to please your hegemonic urges and wishes, we will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons on them! The radiation will not reach you, but if it happens by accident, don’t worry – you are already used to it from NATO bombs! In the meantime, play „nice“ to your evil neighbours, but explain to them on your tv and media that they in fact do not exist. They are deluded and believe that when they were raped and killed and exterminated – it wasn’t done by NATO, but by you! Imagine! How can you talk to such people? They’re irrational, right?
Hm.
Somebody claiming to be a friend of the Serbs would advise them to respect their neighbours, and demand respect back. To strive to make friends, not enemies. To build the circumstances favourable for the existence, not the opposite. To change the tactics and strategies if they repeatedly show they do not work. Explain to them that the possession of nuclear weapons does not ensure the rule over the world (possession by their friends, I mean). Help them if and when they are attacked, and not when they „preemptively“ attack others. Help them to come back to the 21st century and stop living in the end of 14th century! Tell them that the Russian paper money is the same shit as the American paper money and as the Chinese paper money and as their own paper money. Tell them that there once was a great person (greater then Novak Djokovich) named Jesus Christ, peace and blessings be upon him, and that he was NOT a Serb! Or a Russian. Or American. That his messages are still worth hearing.
If you laugh (rightly) with derrision at those who „will revive Ottoman empire“, you are insane if you simultaneously do not laugh at those who stil speak about „Kosovo battle“! Or you are trying to lure somebody?
Mr. Korybko, and many others all down to „shaikh“ Imran Hosein, are either terribly, terribly uninformed – or they are setting somebody up! Mr. Korybko, explaining the evil intentions of Turkey and Qatar, who both support „terrorist“ organisations such as „Muslim Brotherhood“ – points out that they are terrorist because Russia and Syria say so. Being such, both of these countries are involved in NGO and religious work in Bosnia, especially in Sarajevo, and they also directly fund various projects there such as mosques. Funding mosques in Sarajevo equals to terrorism, but doing the same in Moscow doesn’t!? Is this person talking to the kindergarten or what???? Mr. Korybko, f.ck you very much for your friendly and honestly insulting other people’s intelligence!
I, as a Bosniak and as a muslim, truly believe that Serbs, as a collective, deserve much better, then this. Not that I believe that my people are in much better position – how can we be, being between the hammer (Russia) and the anvil (NATO). But, we know that both of them just want to use us, and abuse us, not to help us.
Did Mr. Putin ever condemn, even symbolically, Mr. Yeltsin (his mentor) or Mr. Gorbatchov? We all know why he should! Why are Russian oligarchs good, but all other bad? Why should the orthodox christians allow the building of the huge mosque in Moscow, but hate the guts of the muslims in Bosnia and demolish 1144 mosques there? Never mind that, if you just take the crescent from the spires and arabic signs from that mosque in Russian capital and put the cross instead, you have a very beautiful church – a typical Byzantine architecture, payed solely by the muslims! Oh, revenge for Russian (or was it Serbian) Aya Sophia, I understand. And, did USA and Russia promise Mecca and Medina to Iran during the talks in Geneva, or was it Rwanda? Is there any reason whatsoever for muslims to believe Mr. Putin? I mean, appart from Ramzan Kadyrov, being at the same time both Russian and Chechen, though, how that is possible, (and being Bosniak-orthodox-christian is NOT possible) – beats me!
P.S. Your first impression will, of course, be of me as a payed western troll who tries in vain to influence the more gullible members of your group/nation/people/ethnos/pact or whatever else. In Allah’s blessed Book it is written: „Oh, you adorned with reason, think……..“! Russia, maybe, will be Imran Hosein’s Rum, but not this Russia! Peace be unto you!
I would like to thank you, G-din Korbiko for your articles on Macedonia which we are able to access in the Macedonian language through a number of patriotic Macedonian news portals. Your views are important re: the situation in Macedonia and the efforts by the US/EU/Nato and SOROS funded traitorous SDSM as well as the Albanianin separatists, to first of all disavow the Macedonian people of their name – through the hysterical and fascist Greek aspirations to steal the name Macedonia, the Albanian/US allied goal of dividing Macedonia into an Albanian and as yet to be newly named Macedonian majority – federation and then to push the newly christened state into NATO in order to surround Serbia. No true Macedonian wants to sell off the name, and the crunch is coming soon! We are aware of Russia’s offers of help – I do not know if the Macedonian Govt. has asked, but personally, I believe we will be needing it in the new future as the evnts of this year are spiralling to a head. The US plan is dissolution of the Macedonian identity and the spoils going to Greece – the name, Bulgaria – the language and Eastern Macedonia, Serbia – the church, spiritual heritage, and the Albanians – western Macedonia incorporated into fascist Greater Albania.
Greetings, Mr. Dimitar!
I, sharing with you the broader region of Balkans, historically known as being extremely volatile, would appreciate very much if you could expound a bit on the present situation arround and in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Am I assuming correctly that you simultaneously worry about NATO encircling Serbia, who (in the potential case of division of Macedonia) intends to take your „church and spiritual heritage“, as you put so eloquently? You describe it as „spoils“ and one wonders then what constitutes the essential difference between „hysterical and fascist“ Greeks, or „separatist“ Albanians or Bulgarians who claim the „ownership“ of your language, as you describe them, and your neighbours to the North, the Serbs. It looks that all of them want a piece of you.
What kind of help was offered to Macedonia by Russia? Correct me if I am wrong, but it certainly looks like your problem originates in three-fourths by the orthodox-christians (Greeks, Bulgarians and Serbs) and just one-fourth by muslims (assuming that Albanians are mostly muslims). I can understand that Russia cannot easily press Greece and Bulgaria into compliance, as they are NATO-members, but can Russia press Serbia into abandoning their pretenses on your church and spiritual heritage? Did Russians offer their help in that direction? Or, is that help reserved only against Soros and US/NATO/EU?
What is Russian stand on the Serbian claim that „Macedonians are nothing but Serbs with speech impediment“? Thank you and peace be unto you!
P.S. I am neither for nor against either the Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbs, Albanians or Macedonians (or their respective governments). I am for the well being and good neighbourly cooperation among all of them, independent of what suits either US/NATO/EU or Russia. Naive, as I may be, I deeply believe that the relation with the neighbour is the most important of all.
Boris, the Macedonian people are autochtonous to the Macedonian peninsula – also known since the Ottoman era as the Balkan – whose continuity is proven by The Macedonian Lexicon 16th Century as well as writers such as the early 16th Century Dominican monk, Vinko Pribojevic, whose primary criteria in establishing his views were, descent, language and customs, to name a few. There is a saying which states, one knows one’s enemy – who, having become aware of that which you possess, schemes to take it away from you. Perhaps you can enlighten us as to why the Serbian church denies the Macedonian church, and by implication its spiritual heritage and, it follows, naturally, the Macedonian identity? I did not say the Serbian people. As for the Greeks, Albanians and Bulgarians, their aspirations are evident and they are working openly toward our destruction, so I see very little difference between our neighbours in that regard be they Muslims like the Gheg Shiptar, or Orthodox like the rest. For your information however, the root of the problem lies in the activity of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia whose policies and political decisions have led to our present situation. Why they are doing this is too complex to go into here, suffice to say they are well paid by their handlers, the US. As for the offers of Russian help, at the onset of the ongoing political crisis in Republic of Macedonia earlier this year, Andrew Korybko was one of those that stated that Russia would not allow the intention of those that instigated the crisis to be realised. I myself would like to know what that support entails in realistc terms, hence my post. Pozdrav, D.
Thank you for your answer, Mr. Dimitar.
Unfortunatelly, I am in no position to answer and enlighten you why the Serbian church denies Macedonian church. I am muslim, and it would be unfair and hypocritical from me to pretend that I can act as a judge between two orthodox-christian nations. On the other side, the Holy Qur’an forbids muslims the interfering in the internal matters of the People of the Book (christians and jews – those who received earlier revelations).
Having said that, I can, maybe, suggest that it is the same „why“ as in the „why the Serbian church denies Montenegrinian church“, though I am aware that both yours and Montenegrinian church were autocephaleous in the past, or were under the direct canonical jurisdiction of the Patriarchate of Konstantinople. The same as the Autocephaleous Orthodox Church of Karlovci and the two so called Dalmatian eparchies: Zadar and Boka Kotorska.
But, it was in the past, and obviously national and political interests surpassed the spiritual ones.
What I can discuss about is the very similar problem (similar to your own) faced by Bosniaks, who happen to be mostly muslims. There is also accentuated effort by the Serbian nationalists and the Serbian church to deny the very name of Bosniaks, as well as the name of their language, insisting that both are nonexistant and that they are in fact – Serbs and Serbian. I suspect that the motiffs are the same as in your case.
My belief is that the constructive role of the Russian side (and that in the long run and for the future genuine Russian interests) would be to try to persuade the Serbs into adopting the more honest and constructive policies in the region, accentuated by the mutual respect with all the neighbours and development of the best possible economic and political ties with them. I am aware of the intensity of the Western influence on those nations neighbouring Serbia, but Serbia is not immune to them, either.
It is easy to choose between good and bad, but it is extremely difficult to choose between two „bads“. We all tend to choose the lesser „bad“ when confronted with such choices.
Thank you for your informative reply, Boris. If you’ll permit me to make an observation, we as individuals, but also as societies, nations and even planets, are faced with decisions of either minor or major importance throughout our life cycles. We are continually tested in order to learn the lessons of both power and of love. The nature of power is unstable and results in the eventual ruin of its wielder, and often of countless others. As the saying goes, the mills of the Gods grind slowly yet exceedingly fine.The work of the 13th century Persian poet, Rumi, is a wonderful and often humorous repository of masterful stories that transcends religious boundries, and illustrate our predicament as human beings, struggling to know ourselves, esp. in the translations of Coleman Barks.
As far as the Balkan goes, Russia is the ideal counterbalance to the Western dominance in recent years, however, the powermongers from the West and their local satraps are convinced that they can dominate those who do not agree with their dictates. We have this state of affairs in Macedonia writ large as Macedonia has always striven to allow any and all to express their cultural, religious identities freely. This goodwill of the Macedonian character has today been abused, and unfortunately, we’re on a collision course with potentially catastrophic consequences. What the powerful forget, is that the laws of nature and of spirit always seek a balance, and that the outcome is by no means predictable. Except to say that the innocent are often the vitctims.