First, a quick recap of the situation
We need to begin by quickly summarizing what just happened:
- General Soleimani was in Baghdad on an official visit to attend the funeral of the Iraqis murdered by the USA on the 29th
- The US has now officially claimed responsibility for this murder
- The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has officially declared that “However, a severe retaliation awaits the criminals who painted their corrupt hands with his and his martyred companions’ blood last night“
The US paints itself – and Iran – into a corner
The Iranians simply had no other choice than to declare that there will be a retaliation. There are a few core problems with what happens next. Let’s look at them one by one:
- First, it is quite obvious from the flagwaving claptrap in the USA that Uncle Shmuel is “locked and loaded” for even more macho actions and reaction. In fact, Secretary Esper has basically painted the US into what I would call an “over-reaction corner” by declaring that “the game has changed” and that the US will take “preemptive action” whenever it feels threatened. Thus, the Iranians have to assume that the US will over-react to anything even remotely looking like an Iranian retaliation.
- No less alarming is that this creates the absolutely perfect conditions for a false flag à la “USS Liberty“. Right now, the Israelis have become at least as big a danger for US servicemen and facilities in the entire Middle-East as are the Iranians themselves. How? Simple! Fire a missile/torpedo/mine at any USN ship and blame Iran. We all know that if that happens the US political elites will do what they did the last time around: let US servicemen die and protect Israel at all costs (read up on the USS Liberty if you don’t know about it)
- There is also a very real risk of “spontaneous retaliations” by other parties (not Iran or Iranian allies). In fact, in his message, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has specifically declared that “Martyr Suleimani is an international face to the Resistance and all lovers of the Resistance share a demand in retaliation for his blood. All friends – as well as all enemies – must know the path of Fighting and Resistance will continue with double the will and the final victory is decidedly waiting for those who fight in this path.” He is right, Soleimani was loved and revered by many people all over the globe, some of whom might decided to avenge his death. This means that we might well see some kind of retaliation which, of course, will be blamed on Iran but which might not be the result of any Iranian actions at all.
- Finally, should the Iranians decide not to retaliate, then we can be absolutely sure that Uncle Shmuel will see that as a proof of his putative “invincibility” and take that as a license to engage in even more provocative actions.
A spiritual father kisses his beloved son
If we look at these four factors together we would have to come to the conclusion that Iran HAS to retaliate and HAS to do so publicly.
Why?
Because whether the Iranian do retaliate or not, they are almost guaranteed another US attack in retaliation for anything looking like a retaliation, whether Iran is involved or not.
The dynamics of internal US politics
Next, let’s look at the internal political dynamics in the USA:
I have always claimed that Donald Trump is a “disposable President” for the Neocons. What do I mean by that? I mean that the Neocons have used Trump to do all sorts of truly fantastically dumb things (pretty much ALL his policy decisions towards Israel and/or Syria) for a very simple reason. If Trump does something extremely dumb and dangerous, he will either get away with it, in which case the Neocons will be happy, or he will either fail or the consequences of his decisions will be catastrophic, at which point the Neocons will jettison him and replace him by an even more subservient individual (say Pence or Pelosi). In other words, for the Neocons to have Trump do something both fantastically dangerous and fantastically stupid is a win-win situation!
Right now, the Dems (still the party favored by the Neocons) seem to be dead-set into committing political suicide with that ridiculous (and treacherous!) impeachment nonsense. Now think about this from the Neocon point of view. They might be able to get the US goyim to strike Iran AND get rid of Trump. I suppose that their thinking will go something like this:
Trump looks set to win 2020. We don’t want that. However, we have been doing everything in our power to trigger a US attack on Iran since pretty much 1979. Let’s have Trump do that. If he “wins” (by whatever definition – more about that further below), we win. If he loses, the Iranians will still be in a world of pain and we can always jettison him like a used condom (used to supposedly safely screw somebody with no risks to yourself). Furthermore, if the region explodes, this will help our beloved Bibi and unite US Jewry behind Israel. Finally, if Israel gets attacked, we will immediately demand (and, of course, obtain) a massive US attack on Iran, supported by the entire US political establishment and media. And, lastly, should Israel be hit hard, then we can always use our nukes and tell the goyim that “Iran wants to gas 6 million Jews and wipe the only democracy in the Middle-East off the face of the earth” or something equally insipid.
Ever since Trump made it into the White House, we saw him brown-nose the Israel Lobby with a delectation which is extreme even by US standards. I suppose that this calculation goes something along the lines of “with the Israel Lobby behind me, I am safe in the White House”. He is obviously too stupidly narcissistic to realize that he has been used all along. To his (or one of his key advisor’s) credit, he did NOT allow the Neocons to start a major war against Russia, China, the DPRK, Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, etc. However, Iran is a totally different case as it is the “number one” target the Neocons and Israel wanted strike and destroy. The Neocons even had this motto “boys go to Baghdad, real men go to Tehran“. Now that Uncle Shmuel has lost all this wars of choice, now that the US armed forces have no credibility left, now is the time to restore the “macho” self-image of Uncle Shmuel and, indeed, “go to Tehran” so to speak.
Biden immediately capitalizes on these events
The Dems (Biden) are already saying that Trump just “tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox“, as if they cared about anything except their own, petty, political goals and power. Still, I have to admit that Biden’s metaphor is correct – that is exactly what Trump (and his real bosses) have done.
If we assume that I am correct in my evaluation that Trump is the Neocon’s/Israeli’s “disposable President”, then we also have to accept the fact that the US armed forces the Neocon’s/Israeli’s “disposable armed forces” and that the US as a nation is also the Neocon’s/Israeli’s “disposable nation”. This is very bad news indeed, as this means that from the Neocon/Israeli point of view, there are no real risks into throwing the US into a war with Iran.
In truth, the position of the Dems is a masterpiece of hypocrisy which can be summed up as follows: the assassination of Soleimani is a wonderful event, but Trump is a monster for making it happen.
A winner, no?
What would the likely outcome of a US war on Iran be?
I have written so often about this topic that I won’t go into all the possible scenarios here. All I will say is the following:
- For the USA, “winning” means achieving regime change or, failing that, destroying the Iranian economy.
- For Iran, “winning” simply means to survive the US onslaught.
This is a HUGE asymmetry which basically means that the US cannot win and Iran can only win.
And, not, the Iranians don’t have to defeat CENTCOM/NATO! They don’t need to engage in large scale military operations. All they need to do is: remain “standing” once the dust settles down.
Ho Chi Minh once told the French “You can kill ten of my men for every one I kill of yours, but even at those odds, you will lose and I will win“. This is exactly why Iran will eventually prevail, maybe at a huge cost (Amalek must be destroyed, right?), but that will still be a victory.
Now let’s look at the two most basic types of war scenarios: outside Iran and inside Iran.
The Iranians, including General Soleimani himself, have publicly declared many times that by trying to surround Iran and the Middle-East with numerous forces and facilities the USA have given Iran a long list of lucrative targets. The most obvious battlefield for a proxy war is clearly Iraq where there are plenty of pro and anti Iranian forces to provide the conditions for a long, bloody and protracted conflict (Moqtada al-Sadr has just declared that the Mahdi Army will be remobilized). But Iraq is far from being the only place where an explosion of violence can take place: the ENTIRE MIDDLE-EAST is well within Iranian “reach”, be it by direct attack or by attack by sympathetic/allied forces. Next to Iraq, there is also Afghanistan and, potentially, Pakistan. In terms of a choice of instruments, the Iranian options range from missile attacks, to special forces direct action strikes, to sabotage and many, many more options. The only limitation here is the imagination of the Iranians and, believe me, they have plenty of that!
If such a retaliation happens, the US will have two basic options: strike at Iranian friends and allies outside Iran or, as Esper has now suggested, strike inside Iran. In the latter case, we can safely assume that any such attack will result in a massive Iranian retaliation on US forces and facilities all over the region and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Keep in mind that the Neocon motto “boys go to Baghdad, real men go to Tehran” implicitly recognizes the fact that a war against Iran would be qualitatively (and even quantitatively) different war than a war against Iraq. And, this is true, if the US seriously plans to strike inside Iran they would be faced with an explosion which would make all the wars since WWII look minor in comparison. But the temptation to prove to the world that Trump and his minions are “real men” as opposed to “boys” might be too strong, especially for a president who does not understand that he is a disposable tool in the hands of the Neocons.
Now, let’s quickly look at what will NOT happen
Russia and/or China will not get militarily involved in this one. Neither will the USA use this crisis as a pretext to attack Russia and/or China. The Pentagon clearly has no stomach for a war (conventional or nuclear) against Russia and neither does Russia have any desire for a war against the USA. The same goes for China. However, it is important to remember that Russia and China have other options, political and covert ones, to really hurt the US and help Iran. There is the UNSC where Russia and China will block any US resolution condemning Iran. Yes, I know, Uncle Shmuel does not give a damn about the UN or international law, but most of the rest of the world very much does. This asymmetry is further exacerbated by Uncle Shmuel’s attention span (weeks at most) with the one of Russia and China (decades). Does that matter?
Absolutely!
If the Iraqis officially declare that the US is an occupation force (which it is), an occupation force which engages in acts of war against Iraq (which it does) and that the Iraqi people want Uncle Shmuel and his hypocritical talking points about “democracy” to pack and leave, what can our Uncle Shmuel do? He will try to resist it, of course, but once the tiny figleaf of “nation building” is gone, replaced by yet another ugly and brutal US occupation, the political pressure on the US to get the hell out will become extremely hard to manage, both outside and even inside the USA.
In fact, Iranian state television called Trump’s order to kill Soleimani “the biggest miscalculation by the U.S.” since World War II. “The people of the region will no longer allow Americans to stay,” it said.
Next, both Russia and China can help Iran militarily with intelligence, weapons systems, advisors and economically, in overt and covert ways.
Finally, both Russia and China have the means to, shall we say, “strongly suggest” to other targets on the US “country hit list” that now is the perfect time to strike at US interests (say, in Far East Asia).
So Russia and China can and will help, but they will do so with what the CIA likes to call “plausible deniability”.
Back The Big Question: what can/will Iran do next?
The Iranians are far most sophisticated players than the mostly clueless US Americans. So the first thing I would suggest is that the Iranians are unlikely to do something the US is expecting them to do. Either they will do something totally different, or they will act much later, once the US lowers its guard (as it always does after declaring “victory”).
I asked a well-informed Iranian friend whether it was still possible to avoid war. Here is what he replied:
Yes I do believe fullscale war can be avoided. I believe that Iran can try to use its political influence to unite Iraqi political forces to officially ask for the removal of US troops in Iraq. Kicking the US out of Iraq will mean that they can no longer occupy eastern Syria either as their troops will be in danger between two hostile states. If the Americans leave Syria and Iraq, that will be the ultimate revenge for Iran without having fired a single shot.
I have to say that I concur with this idea: one of the most painful things Iran could do next would be to use this truly fantastically reckless event to kick the US out of Iraq first, and Syria next. That option, if it can be exercised, might also protect Iranian lives and the Iranian society from a direct US attack. Finally, such an outcome would give the murder of General Soleimani a very different and beautiful meaning: this martyr’s blood liberated the Middle-East!
Finally, if that is indeed the strategy chosen by Iran, this does not at all mean that on a tactical level the Iranians will not extract a price from US forces in the region or even elsewhere on the planet. For example, there are some rather credible rumors that the destruction of PanAm 103 over Scotland was not a Libyan action, but an Iranian one in direct retaliation for the deliberate shooting down by the USN of IranAir 655 Airbus over the Persian Gulf. I am not saying that I know for a fact that this is what really happened, only that Iran does have retaliatory options not limited to the Middle-East.
Conclusion: we wait for Iran’s next move
The Iraqi Parliament is scheduled to debate a resolution demanding the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. I will just say that while I do not believe that the US will gentlemanly agree to any such demands, it will place the conflict in the political realm. That is – by definition – much more desirable than any form of violence, however justified it might seem. So I strongly suggest to those who want peace that they pray that the Iraqi MPs show some honor and spine and tell Uncle Shmuel what every country out there always wanted from the US: Yankees, go home!
If that happens this will be a total victory for Iran and yet another abject defeat (self-defeat, really) by Uncle Shmuel. This is the best of all possible scenarios.
But if that does not happen, then all bets are off and the momentum triggered by this latest act of US terrorism will result in many more deaths.
As of right now (19:24 UTC) I still think that there is a roughly 80% chance of full scale war in the Middle-East and, again, will leave 20% of “unexpected events” (hopefully good ones).
The Saker
PS: this is a text I wrote under great time pressure and it has not be edited for typos or other mistakes. I ask the self-appointed Grammar Gestapo to take a break and not protest again. Thank you
Just RER that à heavy explosion in US base at Ain al-Asad, Iraq. Not confirmed yet
Saker, je partage votre point de vue, la pire sanction qui pourrait être infligée aux USA, serait de leur faire quitter l’Irak (et la Syrie par ricochet)…Espérons que le parlement Irakien aura le courage de prendre cette décision historique, toutes les factions irakiennes sont révoltées par les actions américaines, le temps est venu pour eux d’en finir avec cette occupation mortifère.
yandex translate … mod
Saker, I share your point of view, the worst sanction that could be imposed on the USA would be to make them leave Iraq (and Syria by ricochet)…let’s hope that the Iraqi parliament will have the courage to take this historic decision, all the Iraqi factions are outraged by the American actions, the time has come for them to put an end to this deadly occupation.
If the United States left Iraq it would be a win for Iraq, a win for Iran, a win for Syria and, realistically, a win for the American people.
The only people who would lose would be neocons.
Seriously how can this happen? The USA leave? The ANZ mercenary army walk away from its spoils?
USA formally just took control of the Oil Fields in Syria.
USA just asked all non-military to leave Iraq, USA just sent in 3500 new soldiers to ‘secure’ all Oil Fields in Iraq.
Seriously, there is only “One Outcome” and that is “Greater Israel”, and its on track.
We know that in the past almost all the stolen oil from Iraq-Syria was shipped to Israel via Turkey, where it was re-sold and Israel made an enormous profit.
The neocons can never lose, they’re siamese twins with the neo-libs, and all NEO is ANZ; All MSM, all country’s on earth are administered by ANZ agents. Much of the ‘war’ between Soros&Adelson left-vs-right NEO is just fighting over scraps that haven’t yet been stolen from the goy. NEOCON & NEOLIB are siamese twins that share a common asshole, they own the world as the ANZ, the siamese twin is the International-Kleptocrat Elite. They have their fingers in every nation on earth, including Iran & North-Korea. They have been controlling China-Russia for 100+ years, all has been planned for year the ‘controlled demolition’ of the USA. Most like a an engineered civil-war, followed by an ANZ re-population of a de-populated USA with a ‘beautiful wall’ to protects Trumps chosen people.
The soldiers like Gabbi sent to Iraq are just mercenarys. Like Saker say’s “Israel owns the USA”, Israel also owns the USA-MIL, the US-GOV, and that includes Gabbi & Trump. The soliders in Syria&Iraq could very well die there, as the USA that they knew may not be around in the future, but who cares? Israel controls the oil, and most likely an AIIB-SCO deal with CHINA-ISRAEL has already been signed, with Israel as the ‘Seller of Choice’, China doesn’t care, and it respects Israel for its ability to lead the Goy by the nose.
The General is just one man, human life in the eye of the ANZ is worthless, the leaders of Iran all called themselves “Living Martyrs”, now their real power has begun, just like in Lord of the Rings, when Gandolf was killed, he came back stronger.
IMHO this is all much like a ‘magic show’, where people talk about what Gabbi says, or insinuate that USA will leave the mideast, all the while the USA-Israel secures the middle-east oil fields with USA soldiers.
We know the USD is kaput, we know that Saudi oil is kaput, and the USA knows that in the future being the worlds largest user of ‘portable energy’ (oil) that they need infinite free oil.
Killing the “General”, just provides the context to re-occupy Iraq, which now means just occupying the oil-fields.
“The soldiers like Gabbi sent to Iraq are just mercenarys” . An astute observation indeed! However, we may very welle view Tulsi Gabbard as an astute obsrver of military affairs from the view of a semi-professional mercenary too, and thus some remarks worthy of attention.
Another demented conspiracy theorist mixing in cheap fiction like Lord of the Rings, chidish.
Everyone. please stop going off-topic and just attacking other commenters. This discussion is now closed. Mod.
“The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”
As you write, the Shmuels declared war, and they will go all in. And as you write, the Iranians left standing for a while is a win for them.
The hit was to big to be ignored.
Can the war be avoided ? I do not know what is going in the background, but from a rational perspective, the Iranian Command has now the ability to mobilize their people, sacrifice some millions and kill as many shmuels as possible.
Then let’s see how this will be played out in the US elections, the US moral and the divide in the US homeland and in the international central bank stock markets.
Retaliation is coming. The game is over. I believe also, that this is the best time for RU and CN to start the transition. The pawns are in place, this time the US themselves are on the front and not some proxy.
And as you write, there are plenty of ways to help keep those Iranian left standing.
And may be even in the US some see the need to transition away from the stock market bubble and need an outside explanation for it all to crash down.
This time is different.
Just one man.
Human life has no value, murder is accepted.
The ANZ, Israel, or Murder, Inc., is all called this for a reason. Human life has had no value forever. Modern MSM has talked about ‘human life’ and murder being a crime, but the lords of Israel have often said 1 israel live, is worth 1,000 arab/persian lives. ( In fact its well known that one Jew is worth a million Goy )
Iran knew there man was a ‘living martyr’, so now he’s made it real.
Like they say “One dies its a travesty, a million die its a statistic”, the Generals death, will go on for weeks as an extended funeral. One thing we know for certain the SHIA & Sunni will not bond, they will never bond and the CIA(ANZ) will exploit this simple fact.
I think that biggest take away here is this notion that ‘human life’ still matters, that killing a human is somehow different than killing a flea or ant, it doesn’t matter to the ANZ, they have the US-MIL a private Army owned by Israel do their killing, so the ANZ has no blood on their hands. Now the MSM can say the “General’ was a terrorist, if the winds change they’ll say “BAD USA”. they don’t care.
What’s certain is that the ANZ wants “CHAOS”, that is certain, and out of Chaos, they can do anything, anything is possible, including the Yinon Plan.
The “General”, his omnipotence and all is-was largely created by the NYT – ANZ-MSM, and now they have eliminated their dragon, its almost like a TV script for Goy entertainment. The ANZ creates monsters like Saddam, or Norega, and then takes them out, this script has no end, and human-life has no value.
( I don’t mean to say that I feel that human life has no value, I’m just stating the obvious fact that our Kleptocratic Owners of the World, our ANZ doesn’t give a rats ass about Human Life )
“Organization Of Syrian Arab Radio and TV:
News correspondent in Iraq: Ayn al-Asad Airbase has been hit by violent missile attack and news that it is targeted by ballistic missiles from unknown source”
Organization Of Syrian Arab Radio and TV:
Al-Ikhbaria correspondent: Iraqi sources deny that Al-Asad base was attacked by a missile
Please put links to sources. Mod.
Thank you Fabian for making a point mostly missed in most media.
Your rebuttal is so much better than censoring a post or article.
Dear Saker; thank you, as always. Note: General Gerasimov said something is brewing on western front. Most important: Taiwanese elections coming up on the 11th of this month. This is what Hong Kong has been staged for.
Please expound & explain, ’cause this comment of Yours is truly interesting, master Kevin Frost! (cf: “Winter in Peking”/ or cf: “Winter in Beijing”)
I am focused on what next the US will do. I suspect that Assad will be the next major target. This is on Trump’s list and on Bibi’s list. And it makes strategic sense. It will cut all political action by Russia and Iran to heal the divisions in Syrian society. It will lead to a demoralized Syrian military.
The goal of hurting Iran everywhere is served by keeping Syria in turmoil and chaos. Thus, the strategic goal is to eliminate the centripetal force of Assad, who is pulling the pieces together.
I don’t see any large Iranian action. They have always judged things in their own calculus. Certainly, for months, the US sense of security in the region will be very high.
Most effective immediate impact could be via the Taliban in Afghanistan. Iran has ties to them and could supply them with weapons that the Taliban would use immediately against the US bases. I will be looking for signs of that supply and the actions ramping up by the Taliban. MANPADS and missiles could severely take a significant toll on US forces.
Good point Afghanistan. The newly appointed General Ghaani was active in Afghanistan. As he is famimiar with the place, that may well be where he decides to retaliate.
In case the link does not work, Elijah magnier’s and Roberto Neccia’s tweet.
https://mobile.twitter.com/neccia1/status/1213045008204533760
The introduction of manpads would be no less significant an impact on the occupying force as it was when the Soviet’s were there when the SEE EYE AYE showered the Afghani’s with Stingers. It completely changed the modus of the Soviet army once they were introduced. Helicopters became dangerous to be in and could no longer fly near the ground. Good observations though, the assassination of Assad could prove to be magnitudes greater a spark than any of us could imagine. I hope for the sake of, among the many, the Christians he’s been protecting from the foreign merc’s. that he stays safe. He must keep a low profile and let’s hope the S400’s will take care of any Predator drones that try to fly the Damascus airspace.
It seems US (or perhaps Israel) didn’t give you time enough to think about what could be the next move (breaking news from Sputinik, 23:30 GMT): vehicle convoy carrying Iraqi PMF leaders hit by airstrike, 6 dead at least.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202001041077936776-two-car-convoy-north-of-baghdad-under-aerial-attack—reports/
@Larch
Do the Iranians have MANPADs that can take down a drone at high altitude ?
The Misagh-2 has Flight ceiling of 4 km way too low to hit a Reaper etc at 60,000 feet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misagh-2
If they do, I’ve often wondered why they haven’t given them to the Afghans and others living under the USA’s cowardly terror drone program.
How many home grown Air Defence systems do they have?
Do the have enough to give them to Iraq and install a no fly zone over Baghdad ?
This would be an asymmetrical response. A defensive offence.
Obviously, the Iraqis can only kick the Americans out if they control the skies, they would just get slaughtered otherwise
Thanks for posting this. I wonder if Soleimani consciously ( on many human and beyond human levels) wanted to offer the Yanks a “target” (a type of sacrifice, namely himself) that was just too big to ignore, knowing that the stupid enemy would take the bait, and having a secure knowledge that his death would set in motion a chain of events that will (underline will) result in the final terrible fall of the US, and Israel. Stupid American “leaders”, right now, they are dancing in idiotic joy, saying foolish words for which we will pay, also knowing what the future holds: the death of countless people, throughout not only the Middle East, but here in the US as well. Yes, I do hate them for what they have unleashed.
Rest In Peace, Soleimani. You very well may achieve far more in death that you attained in your eventful life.
What do we know about Esmail Ghaani?
“Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends”.
It’s like a queen sacrifice in chess, where the player gives up his own life to win the game.
Saker, I just found this on YouTube and also a social media page, but have no idea how to evaluate it. You would know. What do you think.? Is this plane what the video claims, and if so, is the deduction of what it is doing in Syria plausible?
Thanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTDIEfIFbyw
Dear Pamela,
This plane is bad news for Murica. It is a flying command and control plane.Last time they used it ,a team of us marines took Obama away and moved americans senators away into some secret place.
This was when a russian plane was hit over Sinai by some country and blamed on isis.
Russia obviously knew who was behind it.
Thankyou for the courtesy of your reply Zoobal.
I was especially interested in that – whilst it is a sort of AWACS- it is clearly very advanced, and it doesn’t usually live in Syria, it turned up just now – when this crisis has blown up, and shortly after the announcement of increased military activity of the NATO /US forces by Gerasimov. I wonder just what is going down. I think we’ve seen just the surface of a deep muddy puddle.
Here is another similar video, whether or not it’s true is a question. If it is, then it’s time for the US and Israel to reconsider whatever aggressive plans they have.
“These bombers can easily sink entire aircraft carrier attack groups…two of these..are located in the Persian Gulf”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEZv6Cb9bS4
Very good analysis, as usual. Cheers!
Here is on scary take away: If the US gets away with extrajudicial murder of one head of state or one major commander on what amounts to neutral territory, then anyone, anywhere, anytime for any reason can be “neutralized”. Assad, gassed his people: drone strike him! Putin, interfered with US elections?: add him to the list.
OK. now, seriously…that the Germans, French, and Brits made not even a simple nod to the rule of law amounts to them becoming accessories to the crime. WTF?
German French and British nods count for nothing and no one is taking them serious. Those are basic vassals and the weight of their thought was demonstrated after they protested the US leaving the Iran deal.
It’s just background noise and I’m tired of them pretending to have to comment on any important global affairs.
Very true.
EU leaders are castrated tetraplegics with the political vision of a dying amoeba.
What Europe now needs most is regime change :-)
But that is a topic for another day.
The Saker
For now Israel owns the USA, and the US-MIL does the killing for Israel.
So long as they can play this game, and have the MSM ( owned by Israel ) define the good guys and bad guys this can go forever.
But what is certain, it will not be long before the NEO-LIB & CON are murdering each other in Israel.
Like the man used to say “In an eye for an eye world, all men will be blind”
For now common sociopath/psychopathic killers rule our world, all we can do is keep a low profile, and hope that they wipe each other out ASAP.
I concur that the targets in EU don’t matter, they were castrated years ago, the “General” spoke out publicly about Israel, that seems to be the crime here, that anybody anywhere who tells the truth about Israel is going to die.
China&Russia could be the last man standing, but most likely these oil-bases in Syria&Iraq will become future “Mad Max” Petro outposts, inherited by the like of Prince (Blackwater), in a post ww3 worlds, like Einstein said, “I don’t know how people will fight in WW3, but I know in WW4 it will be with sticks”.
The human tendency is for the rot to rise to the top, where it murders bottom. Once the USA economically implodes it will only be months before the food,water runs out. I really think a lot of what’s going on right now is that these private corporations are grabbing real assets while the USA (ISRAEL MERC ARMY) can still steal without opposition. I expect to see more gold fields, and oil fields stolen in the near future, as real assets are secured to weather the future austerity.
The US congress in the last few day awarded a defense budget way in excess of what was requested by the department of defense.
The planning for these events go a lot deeper the “Hip shot” we just witnessed.
Why do i feel the solution to this whole conundrum will be solved if Iran just go out full blast tomorrow and rain all their might on Israel with no questions ask and destroy the whole country? Blow it them up like Baghdad, take them back to the stone age, eye for an eye.
Quote: “Revenge is a dish best served cold”.
The brain dead ‘thankyou for your service’ spouting American morons and deluded American ‘Christian Zionists’ who put another religion before their own (whilst also forgetting about King Solomans breaking of the Covenenent made with King David they wave in everyones faces) will be expecting action by Iran before the weekend.
If it does not come they will ignorantly and arrogantly assume ‘Victory’ and make threats of further death and murder (and gross hypocracy).
The Iranians (and Russians and Chinese) do not need to act impulsively or recklessly. Thier time (and ample opportunities to humiliate the arrogant) will come in the months and years ahead.
Once the world fully wakes up to the fact that the Dollar is the source of all US power and influence globally, and then turns against it – rejecting it as the evil toilet paper (and imaginary digits on a screen) that it is, the Satanic empire of the US will collapse under its own weight and will not be able to support (pay for and bribe) a global empire. No massive war, no nukes exploding, just the repudiation of worthless pieces of paper and digits on a screen called the US Dollar.
“Revenge is a dish best served cold”. WHence and from who came this excellent qoate, mr. Hassan Carim? I have manyfold heard it from Kurds in Irân and from Turkey.
But even better: An old Icelandic farmer resisted the incursions and imposistions attempted by one king of Norway, (Iceland had been settled by chiefs fleeing Norway due to kings trying to break down the “Thing” (local parliaments) and the right to reclaim inheritance.) Whilst dying he instructed his to twin sons — four years lld — to after four years beseach the local leader of the royal terrorist gang and deliver this message: “Our dying father wanted us to tell You that You are a rauhrasshross”, i.e. ‘A stallion with a reddish and protruding anus’ (i.e. one fucked by better and stronger mail horses. Since the two sons were (1) very Young and (2) guests in the sacred hall of the house visisted, the murderous host could not tirn his heasts on them but had to leave Iceland in shame.
Just offer this up as one of many possible strategy for Irân to apply as a response to Trump and to the US of North A.
I’ve heard Stalin use those words
Thank you, Saker; another brilliant analysis. There are no winners here; but this event was not unexpected, i.e. U.S. aggression but I am surprised Soleimani was in Iraq and unaware that something like this wouldn’t happen.
https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1213202257086492672
A group of people have gathered at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport, asking officials to send them as voluntary forces to hit US bases in region
“Gott strafe Amerika!” (or rather Washington DC and Manhattan wall street) .
When Israël buys “used” fighter airkraft , then Isreäli pilots frly them from taxas over the White House back to their airports in Palestine.
When Norway do buy lots of “new” fighter-bombers, those get flown to Norway by U.S. (or maybe israëli?) pilots.
The Norwegian Attack (Angrepsdepartementet) has 60 highly competent elite fighters active in Fayyad province and around Umbar or also (most likely) now in the gouvernerate of muḥāfaẓat al-’Anbār. Shall these now become “stallions with red protruding anuses(rauđrasshrossar)” or will they do the only honorable thing and fly away?
Regarding US/Israel — Iran confrontation. In fall of 2018 Russian Orthodox monks from mount Athos said World War III will start with US and Israel surprising nuclear (!) strike on Iran after some provocation. In 2019 they said it was last peaceful year for humanity.
It was confusing for me back then why would Israel and Satanic States of America commit pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iran. And then, during 2019, I saw articles started appearing justifying strike of Israel against Iranian targets using specifically nuclear weapons (because they can penetrate Iranian underground facilities):
The National Interest, November 2019:
If Israel And Iran Go To War, Would Israel Launch a Nuclear War?
Global Research, June 2019:
Pre-emptive Nuclear War: The Role of Israel in Triggering an Attack on Iran
The Bulletin, July 2019:
A nuclear war in the Persian Gulf?
etc.
And now this. Scary coincidence.
Here’s hoping there won’t be any major war. Time will show.
Dear Saker,
Thanks so much for this fantastic synopsis. Your voice of reason is a beacon in a sea of lies and propaganda. Such great commenters on here also.
Adam
Saker, a wise article on the consequences of Soleimani’s murder. However, I believe you may have the wrong ‘take’ on Trump only being a “disposable President.” Miles Mathis wrote an article on Trump, pre-election, that is pertinent. (Since then, Mathis has been silent on this matter; he may have been ‘warned off’.)
“Looks like Donald Trump is Jewish.” Synopsizing:
“…both Trump’s parents died at Long Island Jewish Medical Center.”
“So let’s return to Friedrich Drumpf, Donald’s great-grandfather. Two of his sisters are listed as Elisabetha Freund and Syblia Schuster. Those are both Jewish surnames… So at least two of Trump’s great-aunts married Jewish men. This reminds us that his daughter Ivanka married a Jewish man, Jared Kushner. We are told this is an anomaly, but it isn’t.”
“Trump was brought up in Jamaica Estates, Queens, which has a large Jewish population. He went to Kew-Forest School, ditto. … Trump’s father was on the Board of Trustees at Kew-Forest.”
“Trump allegedly went to the Wharton School of Business, a famous spook academy.”
“Ivana [Trump’s former wife] is also Jewish. An early boyfriend was George Syrovatka. That is a Jewish name. Her first husband was Alfred Winklemeier. … Winklemeier is a Jewish name. … Ivana went to McGill University in Montreal, a spook academy we have run across many times. Geni.com lists her father’s name as both Knavs and Zelnícek. I’ll give you a hint: drop the second ‘e’. You get Zelnick. It is Yiddish for haberdasher. Clothier. It’s Jewish, too.”
“Both Trump and his father ran with top Jews in New York, including Samuel Lindenbaum and his father Abraham (Bunny), and Roy Cohn. These guys weren’t just their attorneys; they were their enablers.”
If we throw-in his moving of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, his recognizing of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, his non-censure of Israeli settlement in occupied Palestine, and his appointment of pro-Israel & anti-Iran ‘advisors’, a ‘pattern’ emerges which is consistent with Trump being both a crypto-Jew and a Zionist. This state-of-affairs dramatically changes the odds of escalation to a “US” strike on Iran. If Mathis’ assertion is indeed the case, Soleimani’s murder is the deliberate ‘kickoff’ of a series of events pre-planned to satisfy Israeli goals…
A fine analysis.Trump and Co. are so busy brown nosing the Israelis they don’t seem to care what anyone else thinks. I think every Iraqi not on US payroll will demand Yankee go home,. The us and its corporate media and the “interagency consensus” makes it unlikely ant rational decision making will come out of babylon on the Potomac.
“I think every Iraqi not on US payroll will demand Yankee go home…”
And those Iraqis who are on the US payroll should be arrested, tried and imprisoned for treason.
The Iraqis should make them go home,the Vietnamese wrote the rule book on how to do it,all this has come from Iraqis who collaborated with the US invasion of their own country,i wouldn’t feel too safe at the moment if i was them,because some are still in power.
But by now most of the Viêt Nam ‘ruling elite’ have become pawns bought up by US as comprador semi-capitalists to eneble the us of a to heve Viêt Nam in its own u.s. pocets, pervaded by the mythos nationalis that to be VN-ese is to eternally resist ant negate China.
Her in the sevent clime, many former viatnamese boat people refugees pretend ignorance of there ever havin occured any “Vietnam war”. Salus simplissita!
This ‘could’ be contained and may yet well be. Or it could not.
Both Iran and Iraq have been attacked. This was NOT a defensive move. Soleimani had been declared a terrorist by the US and also declared Iran a state sponsor of terrorism.
That is the figleaf of justification the US is providing. What must be considered is that there is a bill in the US Senate that had passed committee declaring Russia to be a state sponsor of terrorism. If that comes to pass, could Russia be given the same treatment as just witnessed. Not to mention that China could also fall into that category at some point soon using the same ….. errr … logic.
The point here is that should this be seen as an incident that doesn’t directly affect those countries within the Resistance that weren’t directly attacked, or should this be seen as the beginning of the US campaign to establish a Global Reich while there is still time?
If the latter is true, then it would be foolish to let this play out as purely a regional event.
Remember Martin Niemöller:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
Woogs, I feel it is worth adding the full and correct quotation. Many people get it wrong, or get part of it.
Als die Nazis die Kommunisten holten, habe ich geschwiegen; ich war ja kein Kommunist.
Als sie die Sozialdemokraten einsperrten, habe ich geschwiegen; ich war ja kein Sozialdemokrat.
Als sie die Gewerkschafter holten, habe ich geschwiegen; ich war ja kein Gewerkschafter.
Als sie die Juden holten, habe ich geschwiegen; ich war ja kein Jude.
Als sie mich holten, gab es keinen mehr, der protestieren konnte.
– Martin Niemöller, Der Weg ins Freie, (F.M. Hellbach, Stuttgart, 1946)
When the Nazis arrested the Communists, I said nothing; after all, I was not a Communist.
When they locked up the Social Democrats, I said nothing; after all, I was not a Social Democrat.
When they arrested the trade unionists, I said nothing; after all, I was not a trade unionist.
When they arrested the Jews, I said nothing; after all, I was not a Jew.
When they arrested me, there was no longer anyone who could protest.
– translated by Bob Berkovitz (rbbrook@worldnet.att.net). Revealingly, often quoted without the first line (or even the first three lines).
The Anglo Saxons really believe there short presence will prevail against the ancient dominance the Aryans(the real ones that is the Indo-Iranians) have exercised, physically and mentally, in the region. They have no idea what they are going up against, technical knowledge will not win a war.
Since the 5th century before Christ , the overwhelming majority of self-described judaics have been Indo-Aryan, i.e. speakers and users of Indo-European languages: First Persian (Pahlavi and Medic) in Babylon and its environs/Oekomene. Then Greek in Egypt (Iskandriya/Alexandria) and Hallas/Athens. Later on Vulgar Latin and Central Asiatic Iranian in the west and in Central Asia. Some type of Spanish in Catalun and the Andalucia, later on as German speakers in Polen and within “the Pale”. Lately mostly users of English — and in Isreël, you-all will find a lot of them speaking Arian languages at home, while the whores in the backstreets of Tel Aviv are mostly from semittic-speaking families.
Conclusion: Aric (Indo-European) Jews ar fucking all araba an semites and muslims in general .
Dear Saker,
I agree with you that hot war is very likely now and also on the possible USAn goals in such a war. They had to learn at least a decade ago that a full-scale invasion of Iran would be so impractical that it is essentially impossible for the Empire to do.
But they do not need that. I said I agreed with you that the USA need not invade: for them (and the true instigator of this incoming conflict: Israel) it is more than enough if Iran is devastated by naval and airstrikes.
So, in fact this war can and will be won by both sides: Iran may survive a full-scale war but with her economy and infrastructure destroyed. That is what you called a win-win.
However, you also say that “Russia and/or China will not get militarily involved in this one”. And therein lies my problem.
Now please enlighten me why on Earth would the USA not deploy a couple of dozens of tactical nukes in a disarming, debilitating first strike, thus decapitating both the political and the military leadership of Iran, destroying all nuclear sites and also the bulk of the Iranian infrastructure and economy (the latter one with mainly sustained conventional strikes for a couple of weeks).
Why would they hesitate? Knowing that they need not afraid of another nuclear-armed country’s interference it would be quite rational to do so. If this happens, Iran will be in no position for the coming decades to assist anyone else: no more aid for Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Yemen. In this case it really does not matter anymore if the current theocratic democracy of Iran survives or goes away, at least from the Empire’s point of view. As a matter of fact, the USA may even claim “humanitarian reasons” to employ nuclear weapons: it would be claimed as a painful but necessary surgical operation, far better than a long-standing conventional war with years of bombing campaigns, siege of large cities and full-scale assault on the ground. ‘Sparing both American and Iranian lives.’
All in all: Iran may protect herself and exact a very high price for a conventional attack but is defenseless against a nuclear one. So without Russian / Chinese guarantees against an American nuclear strike I think Iranian resistance would prove futile. In case they lack such guarantees they would rather capitulate than suffer complete destruction. Iran may only manage this situation when shielded against USAn / Israeli nuclear strikes – otherwise they better give up before it begins.
The Samson Option say’s Israel will not be attacked.
Given that Israel owns the world, why would they allow themselves to be attacked, they (NSA) didn’t just create TIA for nothing ( poindexer-raygun Total Information Awareness )
They know all, they control all. They own all.
…
Back to Real Politics, Israel owns the USA, and the USA is going down. Israel needs a new cow to bleed, and that be China. China needs oil, so “Greater Israel”, via US-MIL seizes all middle-east oil fields, and then Israel becomes custodian, of course this will be sold as a ‘peace plan’.
Doesn’t really matter, as USA is kaput. Broke. USA soliders will do best to remain at oil-fields and sell black-market oil for Israel, to make money to send home.
Russia will stand down, as in Reality Israel is doing the business of Russia. China needs oil, Israel needs hard-cash to control the Goy, so they can control their world-wide cattle ranch ( chattel – prostitution )
Lives whether they be Iranian, or American, or Palestinian have no value, the only life on earth that has value is the Jewish life.
A large percentage of China are Jewish, like Xian, at least +10M Jews exist in China, and they’re in total support of the castration of the West.
The best selling book in China is called “How Israel Controls the USA”, a true story of how AIPAC took control of USA gov, and killed JFK. The Chinese don’t see this book a ‘shock book’ they see it as a cook-book, of how to control, farm, and tax the western goy.
I would be interested in hearing an answer to this. It seems logical to me. I don’t see any US wars as being a defeat, since they succeeding in destroying countries. Israel’s border’s have not grown yet, but I am sure that is still the goal.
In my view, Russia got involved in Syria because they knew if Syria fell to the US, Iran would be next, followed by Russia. Russia forced a momentary setback by stopping the fall of Syria, but Usrael is proceeding on with Iran anyway. Russia, of course, then follows. Why would Russia get involved in Syria and let Iran fall, possibly by a preemptive “humanitarian” nuclear strike like you mention? All of Russia’s work over the past decades will be destroyed if they watch Iran get destroyed.
And was not USA planning or working on special low yield nukes to be kinder to rheir victims? Tonight on tv the film “the day after”…..synchronicity?
Bc if the terror regime in washington uses nuclear weapons that is a known redline for Russia and Putin have made this VERY clear. I suggest you use duckduckgo and start typing in relevant search frases, it might enlighten you.
I am sorry I am so stupid, but I still don’t understand. Please explain it to me. Russia has made it clear that if nukes are used against them, they will respond with nukes. I have not seen the same message sent regarding third parties. And I tried Googling it.
In Putin’s first speech a year or so ago when he announced the existence of the new hypersonic weapons, and where he also announced Russia’s intention to use these weapons and also nuclear weapons if Russia’s borders were ever crossed by outside invaders, he also included a comment that these defensive strategies could also apply to Russia’s allies if they were attacked. However, my present understanding is that in a formal sense Russia does not have any allies as such.
That was my very first thought as well at the time: all well and good, but who exactly are Russia’s allies regarding this statement? Is Iran one of them? Now is the time to ask this question again.
We know that Iran had bought some Kh-55(M) cruise missiles from the Ukraine between 1999-2001: https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/ukraine-exported-nuclear-capable-cruise-missiles-to-china-iran-lawmaker-alleges-4560/
According to rumours Iran paid a very high price for them and the reason for it was that they came with their nuclear warheads intact.
Well, I do not know if there is anything in these rumours but I understand that the USA clearly does not believe that Iran possesses nuclear weapons nor that it is shielded by Russia / China against nuclear strikes.
Iran already has Nukes, has had them since 2006. The bomb tested in North Korea in 2011 was Iranian. Their main problem is the delivery mechanisms were to primitive to be counted on, thusly the 2015 Nuclear Deal, which wasn’t about freezing the program, but giving Iran time to develop MIRV missiles.
Israel is a tiny country without the geography to protect itself from even a couple nuclear warheads, they are extremely vulnerable. If Iran gets nuked, Israel gets nuked. Everyone at the top of the food-chain understands this, therefore the attempt will be regime change.
I believe a use of nuclear weapons by the Empire in any comprehensive strike is opening Pandora’s Box. This would absolutely require a response from Russia and/or China. It would represent an absolute, overt existential threat to every country on Earth. It could not go unanswered. Is the Empire capable of such lunacy? Sure. I need only refer you to recent comments by the ultimate chicken hawk, Lindsey Graham, calling for the complete destruction of Iran’s oil infrastructure. This threat should be taken seriously as the Neocons (Graham being a Neocon mouthpiece) are in the throes of their fantasy of being the omnipotent rulers of the world. Non response by Iran will only feed this delusion and ensure their destruction.
The zionazis had to act before the US empire crumbles with the overstreched dollar, dollar that no globalist Rothschild in the world will be able to save for much more time.
The globalists in the City want to get rid of the dollar, but they also want to hurt Iran in order to weaken Russia (and China), and they need a still powerful USA to perform that.
The war might therefore be a powerful transition (as were the previous ones) toward a new economical global order, while also weakening the axis of resistance .
As for Trump, one has to wonder if he is really the one who ordered those strikes, and if he really still has any power over the Pentagon.
It’s not just the US and Iran painted into a corner, Iraq, but humanity even.
This United States claimed terrorist act of this import must only mean one thing: their own recognition the time is up, namely, dollar-as-a-reserve-currency is done for.
Every party, not just Iran, will have to figure a way forward from this shortened horizon (a single quarter? less?) imposed by the USofA. Of course Europe doubts itself and there’s no worse time for that. I do trust the Iranians, their artfulness and rationality, I am sure though, by themselves the effort won’t suffice. They won’t be alone.
The answer is surely asymmetrical, but any “symmetrical” false flag must be prevented/minimized likewise.
All hands on deck, the beast must be neutralized!
You need to machine translate this:
The content of Iran’s painful message to America
✴️محتوای پیام دردناک ایران به آمریکا
🔸محتوای پیام ایران به طرف آمریکایی داده به گونهای بوده که مقامات آمریکایی را دچار وحشت شدیدی کرده است. هر چند هنوز از ابعاد این پیام اطلاعی ندارم اما به نظر میرسد آمریکاییها به شکل کامل اعتماد بنفس خود را از دست دادهاند، خبرهایی که به وسیله واسطهها به سمت تهران در طول ساعتهای گذشته به گوش رسیده بیانگر آن است که مقامات کاخ سفید پس از این اشتباه راهبردی، هر کسی که فکر میکنند با ایران کوچکترین ارتباطی داشته و دارد و می تواند به مقامات ایرانی دسترسی داشته باشد متوسل شدند تا پاسخی که قرار است دریافت کنند در همان ابعاد و نه بیشتر باشد!!
🔸اما اگر قرار است ابعاد این پاسخ مشخص گردد باید رئیس ستاد مشترک، فرمانده نیروی دریایی و هوایی و بالاتر از آن شخص ترامپ که دستور این ترور را صادر کرده است کشته شوند تا با هم برابر شویم (البته که باز هم نخواهیم شد) و این چیزی است که آمریکاییها خودشان بهتر می دانند. وزیر امور خارجه آمریکا در طول ساعتهای گذشته به همراه سایر مقامات این کشور یک نبرد رسانهای را شروع کردند تا به زعم خود تصمیم مقامات ایران را تحت تاثیر قرار دهند!! ولی آنچه به عنوان پیام سفارت سوئیس از طرف ایرانیها برای آنها فرستاد تمام برآوردهای آنها را نقش بر آب کرد.
🔸دونالد ترامپ که در سیاست خارجی خودش به بنبست خورده بود و کنگره او را به جرم خیانت فراخوانده بود تا محاکمه اش کند، از سوی دیگر در آستانه انتخابات نمی دانست باید چگونه صحنه بازی را عوض کند دست یک قمار خطرناک زد، این قمار آن اندازه خطرناک بوده که در آمریکا هیچکس حاضر به پذیرش مسئولیت آن نیست و ترامپ تحت فشار سیاسیون مخالف خود ناچار شده شخصاً مسئولیت این اقدام جنون آمیز را برعهده بگیرد. ترامپ یک قمار را شروع کرده که سعی می کند با تهدید و فشار و همچنین التماس و رایزنی و حتا با دادن امتیازهای مختلف از آن فرار کند. خودش بهتر میداند که آنچه درباره مذاکره و گفتوگو با ایران میگوید جز تحقیر بیش از پیش خودش نیست.
🔸هنوز از متن مذاکرات وزیر خارجه آمریکا با همتای روسی خبری منتشر نشده اما او در گفتگویی با رئیس جمهور مفلوک عراق گفته که خواستار افزایش تنش نیست! و عراق نباید محلی برای تنش آفرینی باشد!! این اقدامات مقامات مختلف آمریکایی که شامل پمپئو، برایان هوک مارک اسپ و حتی سناتورهای نفتخواری مانند لیندزی گراهام می شود، در واقع تهدید ناشی از ترس را نشان می دهد. لیندزی گراهام وقتی سهمیه اش از نفت سوریه را گرفت، اینگونه طرفدار ترامپ شده است. منافعی او در چاههای نفت سوریه و عراق دارد که بعدها مشخص خواهد شد که چه پیمانکارانی وابسته به این جانور بی شاخ و دم هستند.
🔸در کاخ سفید همه از وحشت احتمالی هدف قرار گرفتن یکی از پایگاه های این کشور در عراق که صدها نظامی در آن به سر میبرند توسط موشکهای زمین به زمین ایران خواب راحت ندارند. آنها به خوبی می دانند که اگر همزمان یکصد فروند موشک به این پایگاهها اصابت کند هیچ چیزی از آن باقی نخواهد ماند و تلفاتی که به نظامیان آمریکایی وارد خواهد شد همه به پای حماقت ترامپ نوشته می شود. بنابراین بادام با گفتن این واژه که دنبال جنگ نیست و می خواسته با این اقدام جلوی جنگ را بگیرد در حقیقت دارد کلاه سر خودش می گذارد.
K.J
@syriankhabar
Machine translated:
Content of Iran’s painful message to America
The content of Iran’s message to the US has been so intense that it has frightened American officials. Although I am not aware of the magnitude of the message yet, Americans seem to have completely lost their confidence in themselves, the news that has been heard by the intermediaries in Tehran over the past few hours indicates that White House officials have since this strategically mistake, asking anyone who has the slightest connection to Iran and can reach out to Iranian officials to ask Iran to respond their aggression in the same dimension and no more !!
But if the magnitude of this response is to be determined, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Navy and Air Commander and even Trump who ordered the assassination must be killed in order to equalize the crime(of course it won’t) and This is what Americans know better. During the past few hours, the US Secretary of State, along with other officials in the country, has launched an infowar to influence the decision of the Iranian authorities! But the message that Iran sent back via the Swiss embassy to the American government undermined all Trump gang’s plot.
Donald Trump, who had been stalled in his foreign policy and had been convicted of treason by Congress, that the Congress is trying to prosecute him, did not know how to change the game on the eve of the election and risked playing a dangerous gamble. It is so dangerous that no one in America is willing to accept responsibility, and Trump, under the pressure of his opposition, has been forced to personally take responsibility for this heinous act. Trump has started a gamble that tries to escape with threats and pressure, as well as begging and consulting, even by offering concessions. He knows that what he says about negotiating with Iran is nothing more than humiliating himself.
The US Secretary of State’s talks with his Russian counterpart have not yet been released, but he has said in an interview with the beleaguered Iraqi president that he does not want tensions to rise! And Iraq should not be a place for tension! The actions of various US officials, including Pompeo, Brian Hook Mark Spar, and even oil senators such as Lindsay Graham, actually show the extent of fear. Lindsey Graham has become a pro-Trump when he took his quota of Syrian oil. His interests in the oil fields of Syria and Iraq will later determine which contractors are connected to this hornless and tailless beast(Graham).
In the White House, everyone is scared of the potential target bases in Iraq, where hundreds of troops are stationed. They know very well that if one hundred missiles hit these bases at the same time, nothing will be left behind, and the casualties that will be inflicted on American troops will all be attributed to Trump’s stupidity. So, by saying the word that he was not seeking war and wanted to stop the war by doing so, he was actually fooling himself
K.J.
Telegram channel: @syriankhabar
Surely the Empire is acting like it is terrified now: https://www.rt.com/news/477433-iraq-strike-shia-militia-killed/
🔳ترس و وحشت در سخنرانی ترامپ
پیام قدرتمندانه ایران اینگونه صدای رئیسجمهور آمریکا را لرزش واداشت… ترامپ چهار دقیقه و ۱۱ ثانیه در مورد دستور ترور سپهبد سلیمانی و سایر همراهانش صحبت کرد و در تمام طول این ۴ دقیقه نتوانست بر اعصابش مسلط باشد و صدایش نلرزد. خوب گوش کنید که چگونه پیام ایران زنگها را در کاخ سفید به صدا درآورده است. به زودی برای شما خواهم نوشت ایران چه پیامی به آمریکاییها داده که اینگونه به هم ریخته اند.
نه خبری از سر تکان دادن ترامپ است و نه خبری از شانه تکان دادن و نه خبری از بستن چشمان و سر بالا گرفتن هنگام سخنرانی. ترامپ تازه فهمیده بلانسبت چه …. خورده است.
@syriankhabar@syriankhabar
A machine translation:
Fear and fury in Trump’s speech
Iran’s powerful message shook the voice of the American president in such a way … Trump spoke for four minutes and 2 seconds about the assassination of Lieutenant General Soleimani and his companions, and he could not control his nerves all this time. Listen well to how Iran’s message has sounded the bells at the White House. Soon, I will write to you what kind of message Iran has given to the Americans who have messed up like this.
There is no shaking of Trump’s head, no shaking of his shoulder, no closing eyes and a high-pitched speech. Trump has just figured out what he ate.
Telegram channel: @ syriankhabar
‘Secretary Esper has basically painted the US into what I would call an “over-reaction corner” by declaring that “the game has changed” and that the US will take “preemptive action” whenever it feels threatened’.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rtqrht8WPuA/VjvLK-yAHHI/AAAAAAAACYA/h0Gzh-zYWNA/s1600/21319_600.jpg
Hello Saker,
As I mentioned in another article, the Strait of Hormuz comes to mind. What would be the consequences of it being blocked by the Iranians is something that no one seems to consider. Any thoughts on this?
Thank you for very interesting analysis.
“To his (or one of his key advisor’s) credit, he did NOT allow the Neocons to start a major war against Russia, China…”
How high an IQ is needed NOT to want to be burned to ashes? That of a mouse? A fruit fly? A nematode?
‘…we also have to accept the fact that the US armed forces the Neocon’s/Israeli’s “disposable armed forces”…’
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d94b8abb05cb3d29cce2505449ea992d882df7c57d7f070dc40b8caf9a1850a.jpg?w=600&h=400
I tend to think that odd are opposite to what you’ve said about hot war. With regard to leaving ME it was presidential candidate Trump’s promise. As well as declared desire of Tulsi Gabbard. So he can easily spin it as doing it on his own volition. And than (my speculation) redirect freed money into infrastructure repair and preparation for real economic competition with China and Russia. Particularly in space where (for now) we have advantage due to private enterprise..
Saker,
Excellent analysis. Very much appreciated.
Some comments:
1. To put this into an historical context. After the failure of the Douma attacks in April, 2018, the Neocons (Globalists) were basically out of options to win the war in Syria. But this did not mean that they would give up on their quest to control the entire Middle-East, of which Syria was the stepping stone to Iran. They just needed a new plan (Plan D?, E?, F??). We now see that the new plan, painstakingly put in place since April, 2018, is to attack Iran directly.
2. The attack on Soleimani suggests to me that the U.S. strategy is to decapitate the Iranian leadership, and then to take advantage of the anarchy that follows to install a pro-Western puppet in Tehran.
3. I think that the Neocons (Globalists) are extremely impatient to get this done. They need to control the M-E in order to block Eurasian integration into the Russia/China sphere, via the Belt and Road initiative. And the window to launch a war, before the U.S. elections, is very narrow.
4. Based on the above, I expect the U.S., or her ‘allies’ to rachet up the provocations, over the next 3 or 4 months, until they get a plausible excuse to launch a full fledged attack on Iran. I expect that such an attack would be a short, but massive, aerial campaign with the objective of taking out the Iranian government and its institutions, with the hope that in the anarchy that follows, a pro-Western puppet, that is already prepared and sitting in the wings, will be able to claim power.
Trump is not a Neocon, but, about Iran, he shares a common interest with them. And he is likely foolish enough to go along with such a scenario. As other commenters have pointed out, the Neocons think that this is basically a win-win for the Neocons. If all goes well, they get Iran, if not, they get rid of Trump.
Yes, a coordinated and united front in the ME against the Zionazis would be an appropriate and proportional response… a palace coup, the demise of MBS/MBZ, geopolitical realingment, grassroots protests, rapproachment… those sorts of things might shake things up enough to see the warmongering US finally get kicked out of the ME.
How much an Iranian nuclear bomb blast would change the situation.
Soooo…its a slap in the for face for this?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the United States and the European Union should either comply with the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran, or recognize it as nonexistent.
Lavrov made the comments on December 30 after meeting in Moscow with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who said that the European signatories to the deal were “not taking any practical steps” to support it.
The military budget of USA speaks loud. This means they are planning.
Iran will not do any foolish movements and calculate any tactic extremely careful.
China and Russia cannot allow that USA will “swallow” Iran. That’s the point.
If USA is doing something foolish in order to “secure” its hegemonic aspirations the outcome could be completely detrimental to what they had wished for.
I’m afraid the fix is in.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/476196-iran-israel-war-preparing/
I also can’t help but notice the amount of meetings between US officials and Israeli officials, particularly where Iran appears to be the major theme. At the time of Netanyahu’s most recent warning, US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had visited Israel to meet his Israeli counterpart, Aviv Kohavi, to discuss “operational questions and regional developments.” A week prior, the US Air Force chief of staff also visited Israel to participate in the Blue Flag joint military exercise. Not long before that, the commander of the American military forces in the Middle East arrived in Israel for meetings with top IDF officials.
That was early Dec 2019
US government is throwing everything into the propaganda fire to justify its murder of Qassem Solemani. In his desperation to connect Iran to 9/11 attacks, Mike Pence says there were 12 hijackers (forgetting they were 19 hijackers of which 15 were Saudis)
https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1213189757708189699?s=20
Just shows how pathetic American propaganda is.
Over 16 years ago, the Bush Regime was trying to pin some of the blame for 9-11 on Iraq to justify America’s war of aggression on that nation.
Now, years later, the Trump Regime is trying to pin the blame on … Iran … to justify the escalation of yet another American war.
And Pence can’t even get the number of 9-11 hijackers correct, or that the majority of these hijackers were from America’s head-chopping ally of Saudi Arabia!
An american court found Iran guilty re that too.
The default judgment issued by Judge George B. Daniels finds the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran are liable for the deaths of 1,008 people whose families sued.
The lawsuit, which was first filed in 2004 and allowed to go forward in 2016 after Congress passed Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act to open sovereign states accused of terrorism to liability, alleged Iran provided assistance, including training, to the 9/11 hijackers even though the 9/11 Commission found no direct evidence of Iranian support.
Soooo….it was all setup.
Very good recap. The table is set for a lot more death. Iran is damned if they do and damned if they don’t and someone else does because they will simply be blamed. It fits the agenda of the beast.
All the flag-wavers will be out shouting U.S.A., U.S.A. because this murder has left them more secure and safe. I don’t know whether to vomit or weep.
I don’t believe war can be avoided because the agenda is to topple Iran as part of their new world order. If they won’t surrender, war it will be.
This has nothing to do with anything other than the price of oil. The U$ absolutely must force the price of oil over 100 U$D per bbl. in order to profit from U$ oil reserves, and save the petro-dollar. If Iran does nothing overt, and Russia continues to pump oil, thus keeping the price of crude around $60, the U$ economy will wither. I think Iran will peck at the U$, and Iraq will most likely finally order American forces to leave, but I think Iran/Russia/China are just going to wait on the U$ economy to collapse, and then allow the global predator to eat itself. Of course the wild card is the U$ lashing out in its death throes, and just flat starting a major regional conflict or worse.
Iran having access to Caspian Sea, I assume that makes priority number one for Russian.
Saker,
Many thanks for the clear and succinct analysis.
I for one wonder if Iran decides to go asymmetrically rather than a direct confrontation as the Iran people have shown to be strategic in their approach. In my humble opinion, I consider Iran has much (more) to lose if the confrontation path is chosen.
Iran and its allies have reserves of oil and are located in a strategic position vis a vis shipping routes. Additionally, a part of the conversation that has cropped up is the falling value (and use of) the U$D. I think that is the weakest part of the US armour.
I hope Iran resists direct retaliation and works along the lines of accelerated debasement and usage of the U$D.
That is a longer term goal but may be shorter than others. By the way, any resulting damage may well be permanent.
Regarding the talk of a hypothetical “Iran War”, I do not think Washington will actually try invading Iran, for a couple of reasons.
1. The US does not currently have enough troops to occupy Iran. It would require a military draft. This would cause massive opposition inside the USA (easily the biggest internal US political turmoil since the Vietnam War). And the youngest American adults that would get drafted are the least religious US generation ever (i.e. they are not Evangelical fundamentalists who want to throw their lives away for “Israel” and the “End Times”).
2. Where would Washington launch the invasion from? Iraq? The US will soon be asked to leave Iraq, and if Washington does not comply it will very quickly turn into another quagmire for the US just like it was in the 2000s. And if they tried invading from Afghanistan, Iran could always arm the Taliban. And besides, would Pakistan really allow the US military to pass through its territory to Afghanistan to invade Iran? I think not.
3. Russia would obviously provide Iran with military supplies, intelligence, and diplomatic support, making any invasion attempt very costly for the US.
Therefore, Washington’s options are rather limited to missile strikes, CIA funded terrorist attacks, and other lesser forms of meddling.
I agree. The only question is what kind of missiles those would be? The USA can still win a war against Iran with a debilitating nuclear first strike, employing a couple of dozens of tactical nukes, thus decapitating the Iranian government and military, destroying every nuclear site and then finishing off the rest with its conventional capability, crippling Iranian infrastructure and economy for the foreseeable future. Then no ground invasion and regime change is needed; Netanyahu would be pleased with this solution.
Now wouldn’t that be something if the US got ‘kicked’ out of Iraq and asked to leave… US withdraws and Trump makes good on his promises. he has his excuse to give the middle finger to the NEO CONS err ZIOCONS who yes, have him by the b*lls.
The US will not be “kicked out” of Iraq by any “diplomatic” means. It won’t happen any more than Israel was “kicked out” of the post ’67 occupied lands. The ONLY way the US will be kicked out of anywhere is by sending a significant number of Americans home in body bags. Period. Americans as a people are comatose sheep. Nothing has a chance of waking them up except thousands of American deaths. The deaths of anybody other than Americans are just football scores for Americans. The US, under Israeli control will continue raining death and destruction upon the world until the world finally unites against it.
The ONLY possible non military solution would be to somehow destroy the the teetering, debt choked American economy. Wreck the dollar. Immediately. That’s the only way, sort of thousands upon thousands of American dead.
General Qassem Soleimani 1st Interview: During The Lebanese War In 2006 He Stood By Hezbollah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etiBNF3wY1c
If the USA attacks Iran, China will take Taiwan. The USA will be tied down and unable to stop it.
If attacked Iran will hit Israel hard. Chemical plants, Diamona, etc. They know who is giving Trump his marching orders. It is the only deterent they have and both they and the Israelis know it.
The main action will probably be in Iraq and Syria. Look for lots of hit and run attacks on US forces in those countries. Other targets world wide can be hit but Iran will not leave any fingerprints. The USA will manufacture them of course as lying is what they do best.
The flailings of a dying empire are always the most dangerous phase.
China is not going to do anything. They will sit out and watch as usual.
One thing I want to add is that Persians have a habit of being too confident before they are destroyed. It happened once when they underestimated the Greeks and ultimately got conquered by Alexander, and it happened again when they dismissed the Arab Muslims as some insignificant ragtag tribal army from a desert corner.
Obviously the situation is different now and there are many factors to consider, but I can’t help but to be more pessimistic than the Iranian rhetoric suggests. I still remember when some analysts prior to the invasion of Iraq were predicting defeat for the US coalition and American carriers getting sunk by Saddam’s missiles. Didn’t happen.
“Persians have a habit of being too confident before they are destroyed. It happened once when they underestimated the Greeks and ultimately got conquered by Alexander, and it happened again when they dismissed the Arab Muslims as some insignificant ragtag tribal army from a desert corner”.
The Achaemenid Empire founded by Cyrus the Great lasted 200 years before being conquered by Alexander the Great – probably history’s greatest warlord and conqueror. After Alexander died a few years later, the Persian Empire persisted in various forms for 1,000 years before the Arabs (temporarily) conquered it. Notably, the Persians and Parthians heavily defeated the Romans on several occasions.
Perhaps coincidentally, the USA has existed for less than 250 years – and has controlled an empire for about 120 years. It remains to be seen if it even exists in the year 2100.
The Persian defeat by Alexander is more attributable to the vast size of their empire and its heterogeneity than to any racial traits. Moreover Darius III was one of the weakest Persian Great Kings, arguably losing his empire by turning tail and fleeing in two consecutive battles aither of which he might still have won.
As for the Persian defeat by the Muslim Arabs, the latter beat everyone they came across for several hundred years – apart from the single battle of Tours against Charles Martel. But the Muslim army that swept into France on that occasion was quite small and represented nothing more than a tentative probe.
Excellent analysis and good to see the many comments.
Would like to know what ANZ stands for as in my country of residence ANZ stands fo Australia/New Zealand. Here ANZ seems close to the ruling elites who were also masters at deception then and now: they ensured that the so-called greatest crime of those 6 million went by without forensic and scientific research being allowed to take place and imprisoning those who had questions or evidence showing it was not quite as portrayed by ”historians”. The holocausthandbooks.com authors have different scietific insights and studies, but as long as this cannot openly be debated it means that the deception will continue forever. It seems to me at the core of the ongoing impossibility to publish truths and therefore be allowed to have the basic human rights we are all supposed to enjoy. The ANZ is still on top of all this and at least here it appears to be possible to discuss the rlevance of this as we all refer to the core issue of the strength of deception by the ruling elites.
Many commentators are puzzled as to why the USA murdered an Iranian general — without a declared war between them — and took the risk of triggering one in a region and at a moment when US forces and indeed US civilians are actually quite vulnerable to attacks not only by Iranian forces but also ‘non-state’ actors. In the Middle East US actions often seem to be counterproductive, sometimes against its own interest and to put it at a disadvantage whether diplomatically, politically, economically, sometimes militarily, or all four.
At one time in the past I too was puzzled by inexplicable US actions. But after watching the Middle East a little more closely for nearly 20 years, ever since Bush’s criminal invasion of Iraq, I’ve developed a strategy for understanding US actions In the ME.
And the strategy is actually quite simple: Just look at it from Israel’s point of view. See how it gains from US actions, and all will be clear. All the contradictions, puzzles, riddles, mysteries , will disappear as if a veil has been lifted.
Now, I’m not indulging in good old Israel bashing here and this is not knee-jerk Israel blaming. Nor am I being simplistic, cynical or world-weary. No, I’m saying that US actions in the ME are always predicated on Israeli interests. Always. Israel via the US’s ZOG directs US actions and if the US does act independently, it also always takes into account Israeli interests, above its own. Thus it will even act against its own interest. At the very least any US action should do no harm to Israeli interests.
Israel wants — very badly — the US to fight Iran down to the last American. Iran is the only country that can realistically threaten it. The other countries in the Gulf with a decent military are in its pocket or have been degraded, starting with Saddam’s Iraq and now Syria. Egypt, Syria’s partner in the Yom Kippur war, has a large military but is also in Israel’s pocket. Only Iran and certain players in Lebanon remain belligerent but Lebanon is realtively weak compared to Iran so it has lower priority.
Gen Soleimani’s murder is just another effort by Israel, via ZOG, to trigger a war that it hopes will destroy Iran and of course with the dying done by Iranians and Americans. No Israelis will die in that war. They did it once with Bush in Iraq and succeeded so what’s to stop this enterprise from succeeding as well. If it doesn’t, well try again.
So I don’t spend my time debating whether Trump is stupid or clever; whether he’s a chess player or not, because it’s unproductive. In the ME Israel gets what it wants from the US ZOG regardless of what others, American public included, think or say.
Gestapo or NKVD… :)…
Thank you for this very interesting analysis.
Ultimately, to defeat the American Evil Empire, you have to understand its weaknesses.
Given that the Federal Reserve is in full panic mode monetizing its own debt and the US Oil Fracking Bubble–not to mention the Everything Bubble–are ready to explode, the USA is actually fragile.
In fact, America has escalated its proxy terror war on Iran precisely because it actually wants *higher* oil prices, as this is the only way that US Fracking Bubble can continue. Also, geopolitical turmoil will cause non-Americans to flee to the “safe haven” of the US Dollar and T-Bills, or so the Americans reason.
In short, America needs war.
Peace is an existential threat to the USA.
Iran should retaliate against America but not play into its hands, particularly since the USA has military “escalation dominance” against Iran in this situation.
Let’s just say that retaliation against American aggression does not need to be in the military arena only or even primarily….
Trump, and his insane regime of neo-cons and christian evangelist, end-of-time, sex-pervert weirdos may have just flicked the switch that will lead to all out nuclear conflict….how would that play out?….
Within the first 3 minutes of a nuclear conflict, 2600 ‘high alert’ nuclear weapons are launched….. By the end of the day 600 million people are dead. They are the lucky ones. …
Has Trump started a nuclear war?
https://richardhennerley.com/2020/01/04/has-trump-started-a-nuclear-war/
Something that very few seem to have noticed.
Suleimani was a guest of the Iraqi government (a US ally!!), in Iraq as an envoy of the Iranian government. Senior Iraqi officials and soldiers also died in the attack.
The killing of an envoy is an absolute low in the ethics of international behaviour and has a number of meanings;
1. We no longer want to negotiate and only war will decide the outcome of our differences;
2. We have discarded all accepted rules of civilised behaviour . Yes, even during war normal humans try and behave within recognised behaviour norms.
This is an indication of extreme desperation and demonstrates the lowest of lows in terms of ethics of international relations.
As such it is a bit odd for The Saker to say the following:
“For example, there are some rather credible rumors that the destruction of PanAm 103 over Scotland was not a Libyan action, but an Iranian one in direct retaliation for the deliberate shooting down by the USN of IranAir 655 Airbus over the Persian Gulf. I am not saying that I know for a fact that this is what really happened, only that Iran does have retaliatory options not limited to the Middle-East.”
I very much doubt that Iran would be involved in such an act simply on the basis that Iran has not reached such a low level of ethical behaviour. From what I have seen of Iranian behaviour, bringing down a civilian airliner in revenge for someone else bringing down your civilian airliner is very unlikely to pass the Iranian ethical criteria.
I agree. Such rumors spread by the CIA and Wikipedia based on claimed anonymous callers seem much more like disinformation.
To understand why so many Nations seem passive to ZioAmerican belligerence, ask yourselves this. Which nations print their own money ? Which nations have a central banking system, and are those central banks tied into the same ” system ” that the US federal reserve is part of ? Think it over carefully.
One of his many outstanding qualities was his interest in all and everyone. He did during his military service in the days of the Shahanshah Reza Pahlavi attend English language classes taught by motley batches of Brits and North Americans whilst residing in hippie commune-like “last homely houses” near the Tehrani US embassy. According to my co-workers a very polite young man.
I see comments here above both in Persian Farsi and in modern Arabic. Should love to see homilies — or chastigatons for that matter — here in Azerbaidjani and in Baluchi as spelled in perisa.
Thank you for great analysis Saker.
So, in response to this hot militarily war action, Iran will use it to win in information war in Iraq. Maybe, the same applies if the full escalation hot war starts – response would be economic war catastrophe for US?
One thing maybe not discussed. All right, everybody agrees that Trump is Anglozionists puppet. Also, interesting views are shared on the possibility to change it to Chinazionists alliance. It is in line with pravoslav predictions that the end times would come from the east. This is an interesting thing to discuss, if it could be the scenario in future. I believe in China and hope not.
But, in any case, nobody is analyzing the possible conflict in Anglozionists alliance. What if there is an apple of discord between them for the first time in the last 500 years? Because if with the end of US dollar Israel finds an alternative to continue with its long lasting world ruling, how about if Anglos understands this and do not agree? Especially, if they do not want to dye for Israel goals in a nuclear catastrophe going before new world economic order. And what if Trump likes more his Anglos that his Zionists?
In this concrete situation, I want to remind that he did not always played everything on the middle east as Israel would like. Several things. Biby lost elections. If everything went well during Trump presidency why would that happen? Remember bombing of Syria with tomahawks. Everybody said that Trump is starting a war in middle east on Israel command. But, it was a bluff – it lasted for 1 day and stopped. Also, he unexpectedly withdrawed troops from northern Syria last year allowing Syrian army to liberate even Raqqa. In general, he likes to act unpredictably. How about the possibility that after this assassination, Iraq asks for US withdrawal from Iraq and he agrees with it? How about that promising scenario?
Greetings from Belgrade.
From Budapest with great respect.
F… Uncle Shmuel.
Make him go back to where he came from: HELL
usually i am persuaded by saker-type expert analysis, but not n this case. someone, somewhere, will avenge solemani for reasons of muslim law, honor and tribe alone, not geo-politics. he was too revered by common iranians for this not to happen. i expect trump himself to be targeted. i assume his handlers, esp israel, knew this, and pressed accordingly for the attack. it will be up to usa military and congress, and perhaps ‘the world’, esp russia, to show restraint to avoid ww3; the screen behind which israel insanely thinks it can take control of the ME.
What is up with the “Statement from Joe Biden”. The headline of the statement “A statement from the vice-president Joe Biden”. This is obviously bullshit. Mike Pence is the vice-president, nobody, especially Joe Biden would make that mistake in a press release.
Has everybody gone insane? Why is no one questioning this? I found the item on twitter, not one person responded questioning why he would call himself vice-president. No one in your comment section questioned this either.
This is baffling to me. How can everybody fail to notice this? WTH?
In the US a vice president, or a president has the title for life. (not the power that goes with it after serving term(s))
Kent
You may be missing the point. If Iraq calls for the US to leave Iraq it is likely the US will blame the vote on Iran and further attack Iran. Overall this looks like an effort to create a Pearl Harbor moment. A debacle that will allow the US to exert the will and determination of WWII.
Given such a swift change in mindset what will the US not do to Iran to obtain victory? The US including most of its people do not take the rest of the world seriously. If they don’t like it let them eat nukes is a sufficiently common attitude to prevail when tempers flare. Your analysis would be more true to the current period if it allowed for the appearance of a Pearl Harbor Moment created by an outraged Iran to transform American Will.
The real trap is the one offered the Japanese in 1941 where US embargoes brought about the Pearl Harbor attack. However wily the Iranian regime it will be pushed into doing something very inflammable. Let Iran close the Straights of Hormuz and more. Especially something deadly to US personnel and as ugly as possible. Even enhanced by false flag operations as well.
It is a mistake to think of salvaging peace in a rapidly gathering age of war. We are most likely moving towards a moment where sentiment will transform to favor major war.
Many Israelis and Americans are already talking about what a good president Nicki Haley would make.
You mean what a good little Zionist patsy she would make, right?
Portuguese version at
https://www.resistir.info/irao/saker_irao_03jan20.html
Just playing the devil’s advocate:
In the past, US-Israel have assassinated a number of high level scientists associated with the nuclear program. That happened inside Iran. And Iran’s retaliation was never more than the usual rhetoric.
One would think a general is expected to be at risk in a foreign territory (where US troops are stationed) and this was known to Iran.
I am inclined to believe that there would be no response of consequence from Iran. It will try and manage the message to the domestic audience with anything that happens during the normal course of conflict in Syria.
In reality it is evident that a warcrime has been committed by these murders. The USA taking responsibility has the obligation to reveal which agencies and personell carried out the attacks.
The seriousness of this warcrime is such that the UN Security Council has to discuss further actions to prevent war which is its main objective. There are both the warcrime and the prevention of war at stake, two separate issues where the UN Security Council hold juristiction on the highest level. Within the issue of warcrime which is obvious in this case, the assasination of people or individuals are warcrimes, there is also the warcrime of aggression. USA believe they have immunity since they are not party to the Roma Statutes , but this is not the case. USA however have more options to carry out crimes with impunity than almost any other nation, and they have exploited these opportunities. The ICC are relying on financing through UN, and USA has cut short that funding, and the general assembly are short on funds for the operation of the UN as a whole. The US dominated political situation in the world also present lack of funding for the ICC budget directly to ICC through General Assembly. The ICC was referred to funding by individuals and NGO’s. It is reported that the operations are restricted by funding of these individuals and NGO’s directions.
Political issues with the UN.
The Secretary General are selected from pre-selections of servants of the empire, Antonio Guterres being a former UN High commisoner for Refugees, fmr. Pres. of the European Council, UN is a highly political theatre.
I am noting a lack of response from UN as a signal in this matter. The only response from a Sec. general away on business with US congress members in the state of California was that he was concerned -2 days ago.
It was a recent escalation. No sec. general is was something else, an escalation of a one sided false flag operation against Iran, a state acting solely on her own propaganda to serve self-interests.
https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm19925.doc.htm
No meetings have been summoned in this grave matter.
There are still several ways however in which USA will be held responsible even though the case is not carried through and some openings for convictions.
In person, president Trump is responsible for the warcrime, an act of aggression. A case may be filed by Iraq or the UN Security Council or a preliminary investigation may be launched by ICC on their own.
USA is responsible for a war crime of assasination. A case may be filed by Iraq or the UN Security Council or a preliminary investigation may be launched by ICC on their own.
USA is responsible for aggrevating war. UN Security Council must take action according to their charter to prevent war.
How does the ICC work ?
” 32. How would an investigation into a crime of aggression be opened?
If the United Nations Security Council determines that an act of aggression has been committed, the
ICC Prosecutor can decide to open an investigation, under the conditions mentioned above.
Otherwise, the Prosecution may examine the situation and, based on its assessment, may notify the
United Nations Secretary General of the situation.
If, within six months of being notified by the Prosecution, the United Nations Security Council does
not make a determination on whether or not an act of aggression has been committed, the Prosecutor
may still proceed with an investigation into a crime of aggression, subject to authorisation by the ICC’s
Pre-Trial Division.
Ref. ICC
IV. How does the ICC operate?
A. Referrals, analyses and investigations
33. How do cases come before the Court?
Any State Party to the Rome Statute can request the Office of the Prosecutor to carry out an
investigation. A State not party to the Statute can also accept the jurisdiction of the ICC with respect to
crimes committed in its territory or by one of its nationals, and request the Office of the Prosecutor to
carry out an investigation. The United Nations Security Council may also refer a situation to the Court. ”
The world should move forward in respect of international law. Non-parties to international law do not exist.
Non-parties to war crimes do not exist. There is only the lack of jurisdiction, the formal denial of justice.
References.
International Criminal Court
https://www.icc-cpi.int/
The Roma Statutes.
https://asp.icc-cpi.int/en_menus/asp/states%20parties/Pages/the%20states%20parties%20to%20the%20rome%20statute.aspx
The crime of aggression Amendment.
https://asp.icc-cpi.int/en_menus/asp/crime%20of%20aggression/Pages/default.aspx
See also CICC, coalition
http://coalitionfortheicc.org/about/our-story
A great piece: https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/01/03/world-war-iii-has-president-donald-trump-lost-his-mind-may-god-give-us-a-moment-to-reflect-for-peace/
WORLD WAR III? UPDATE 4: General Was in Iraq to Stop Attack on US Embassy; Zionists Fabricated Signals Intelligence: Decision Was Domestic Political and ZERO Strategic Thought Was Present
Iraqi lawmakers have unanimously approved a bill, demanding the withdrawal of all foreign military forces led by the United States from the country following the assassination of Iran’s top military commander, Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and the second-in-command of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. On Sunday, the legislators used a extraordinary parliamentary session to vote on a resolution requiring the government to press Washington and its allies to withdraw their troops from Iraq.
” On Sunday, the legislators used a extraordinary parliamentary session to vote on a resolution requiring the government to press Washington and its allies to withdraw their troops from Iraq. ” source: Press TV .
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/05/615421/Iraqi-lawmakers-draft-US-forces
Iraq lodges complaint to UN chief, UNSC over US assassination of Lt. Gen. Soleimani, Muhandis
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/05/615442/Iraq-complaint-UNSC-US-assassination-Soleimani-Muhandis-parliament-Daesh
Iraq may in this case refer the case directly to ICC :
” A State not party to the Statute can also accept the jurisdiction of the ICC with respect to
crimes committed in its territory or by one of its nationals, and request the Office of the Prosecutor to
carry out an investigation.”
Meanwhile Iraqi parliament voted for expulsion of US troops… the plot similar to the one mentioned in the article.
But, have you considered possibility that this has been provoked by US in order to get a good reason/excuse to retreat?
News from Iraq that general Qasem Suleimani was on an official visit to the iraqi government as en envoy.
This is devastating for the US propaganda and lies.
” Soleimani was to deliver Tehran’s reply to Saudi de-escalation letter when killed: Iraqi PM ”
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/05/615466/Soleimani-reply-to-Saudi-letter
So USA was acting to kill a peace or de-escalation process in the Middle Eastby assanating general Suleimani. He was on a mission by invitation of Iraq, that makes him formally a diplomatic envoy. The aggresion crimes just grow bigger and pres. Trump can be held personally accountable for that. Pres. Trump directly violates the Roma Statutes of international law, war crimes, on all accounts, It is now a violation of basic international law among nations as well, the very foundation of peaceful existence among nations.
There is at this time seemingly still no end to US propaganda lies spinning more fantasies into social media that they censor heavily , and into corporate media broadcasts. They now claim that general Suleimani was involved in 9/11 travel arrangements for terrorist planners or perpetrators. It is well known that CIA was behind those travel arrangements perpetrated through Saudi Arabia who was their partner in various ways.
Former State Department diplomat Michael Springer:
” I found that Shayna Steinger had been the consular officer in Jeddah who had issued 11 visas to people who were participants in the September 11th attacks, and I was thunderstruck at this. Shayna Steinger, who from my research on the Internet had given equivocable answers to the 9-11 Commission, she still has a job and has gotten promotions.
Bonnie Faulkner: You’re saying that 11 of the, what, 19 …
Michael Springmann: Twenty. I think 19 or 20. 15 got their visas in Saudi Arabia and 11 of the 15 got them in Jeddah.
Bonnie Faulkner: I see, at the very office where you worked.
Michael Springmann: Exactly.
Bonnie Faulkner: You complained because you were being overruled when you denied visas, right? Who did you complain to?
Michael Springmann: I complained first to Justice Stevens, and Justice is the given name. He was head of the consular section. I complained to Jay Frerers. I complained to Stephanie Smith, who I have since found out is a CIA official. ”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/visas-for-al-qaeda-cia-handouts-that-rocked-the-world-an-insiders-view/5498201
According to FarsNews Agency a large number of iranian lawmakers have assessed the legal situation in regard to the US assasination of iranian general Qasem Suleimani and the deputy commander of the iraqi PMF (popular mobilisation forces) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and found USA has violated virtually all of the international law and its principles and that measures are taken in accordance with international law calling in clear text on both the international body of UN, and the national body of USA to take action so that the guilty part are held accountable. :
https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13981015000330
TEHRAN (FNA)- 15,700 Iranian lawyers in a statement on Sunday condemned the US assassination of IRGC Qods Force Commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, calling for the trial of culprits behind the terrorist move.
“The US criminal act is a flagrant animosity towards the international laws and all fundamental agreements, including the UN Charter, as well as the fundamental principles of international rights (the countries’ sovereignty, political independence, political independence and protection of international peace and security),” the statement said.
The statement called on the US government to immediately stop its interfering measures which disturb international peace and security and put the culprits behind the terrorist attack on trial.
It also asked the international community, specially the UN, to form a special court to put the US officials on trial, asked the UN Security Council to condemn the US as the violator of the international peace and security, urged the UN General Assembly to make decision and take decisive measures in case of the UNSC’s inability or lack of determination.
Updates.
Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has been denied visa to the UN by USA. UN is located in New York.
I think people begin to see the real axis of evil is USA.
That is yet another grave violation of international law.
These criminal acts serve to show that the UN need to be relocated completely to countries which abides by international law.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/07/615555/Iran-FM-Zarif-US-visa-UN-meeting
Iran parliament designates Pentagon, subsidiaries as terrorist over Soleimani assassination
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/07/615554/Iran-parliament-pentagon-terrorist
A US brig. general Seely who oversees US task force Iraq has confirmed leaving Iraq after Iraqi parliament passed a law requiring all such coalition forces to leave Iraq.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/07/615607/Iraq-letter-United-States-withdrawal
Regarding the status of international law and ICC that is very clear as mentioned in earlier posts. However, US has spearheaded an attack on international law throughout UN. It is well known that US as a permanent member of the UNSC has the right of VETO. As I pointed out that is one of several ways where international warcrimes and similar crimes may come before the ICC. There are also the diplomatic effect of bringing the cases, and have them examined. It appears that the US effort of controlling ICC has been developed by handing responsibilities to ICC for human rights groups. These groups as HRW, Open Society Foundations, and others are funded by George Soros and even US state department. It has been proven that this is a coup d’etat against international law as these groups were calling for a false intervention in both Libya and Syria based on humanitarian issues, and further they as well as OPCW has been falsifying reports based on political goals of the US and a largely falsified intelligence community as well.
It is against this backdrop the ICC operates at this time, seemingly engaged in wild goose chases across Africa in countries US are targeting so that a resistance is formed. The resistance are later targeted by ICC.
Iraq has forwarded a case both to UN sec. general and UNSC. They may also forward the case directly to ICC.
This is worth following up if for nothing else to see how corrupt they are. Pres Trump is personally accountable for the act of aggression, a serious warcrime since it leads to war it is forbidden.