Yesterday I posted a short SITREP about the Ukrainian offensive on Balakleia. And, sure enough, there are 72 comments on this already! Many of them show a total misunderstanding of the nature of the SMO (it was a mistake for me to post a map which, obviously, most people cannot make sense of!).
So all I propose to do today is to explain something really basic about the concept of defense (in reality defensive operations are much more complex!).
First, this how Hollywood and the mainstream media present defense: you stand and fight, and if the enemy overruns your defensive position, you lost.
The reality could not be further from this silly notion.
For one thing, the USA never fought a real war, nevermind a defensive one. As for the Europeans, they are used to the kind of terrain you would have in central Europe, i.e. a terrain with a lot of geographical and topological features which favor a dug in static defense. For example, I did my basic training in an electronic warfare unit which was mostly deployed in the Swiss mountains and I can tell you that a single mountain infantry company (in some extreme cases even a well prepared platoon!) can fully lock a narrow valley or a pass against an entire mechanized/armored battalion (especially if that mountain infantry is supported by well concealed – mountains are ideal for that – and powerful long range artillery!). Much of Europe is what is called “mixed terrain” that is to say a mix of fields, forests, small towns and villages, many rivers (often with steep banks and rapid currents), bigger and stronger regional towns, etc. etc. etc. In that terrain you are naturally inclined to make the best use of these features and hold on to good defensive positions. In fact, in this kind of terrain it is often impossible to deploy a full mechanized/tank brigade or division (they are too big!) and you are simply forced to fight mostly infantry battles with smaller subunits.
The Ukraine is totally different. The eastern Ukraine, the Donbass, has a lot of small towns, and this is why the Ukrainians dug in and hold towns like Avdeevka. However, once you leave that more heavily populated line of towns and villages, you mostly have open steppe with a few rivers and scattered forests, many of them pretty small. This is why only small Ukronazi units can hide in these small forests, their bigger units mostly hide inside towns and cities, basically using the local civilians as “human shields” and since these Nazis hate the local “separs” anyway – they have no illusions about the real sympathies of most Ukrainians in the south and east – they don’t care at all if scores of civilians die in Russian strikes! In fact, in a recent video Gonzalo Lira, who is currently in Kharkov, stated that since most of the anti-Russian locals are under no illusion about the inevitable outcome, they have long left Kharkov, hence the SBU’s “hunt” for “separs” and other “pigdogs” and “biomaterial” amongst the remaining population. Yet another reason for the Russian to do everything humanly possible to avoid civilian casualties!
So in the case of warfare in the Ukraine, I think that it is helpful to think of it as “a land version of a naval battle” which centers not on the control of this or that wave, but on destroying the enemy forces while not getting destroyed yourself.
The next thing which I need to bring up is force concentrations. The war in the Ukraine is more similar to soccer in which attackers and defenders fight each other all over the field than to US football in which there is a clear line of scrimmage and where everything is about “conquering” more terrain or advancing downfield. This means that there are always temporarily unoccupied “grey zones” (think of them as parts of the soccer field which happen to be empty but which could quickly become a “combat area” if a pass is made there and two players will fight each other for control of the ball).
Just these two facts very strongly suggest that a mobile defense is the way to go on such terrain. These are generalizations, of course, but by and large they apply.
Next, when you have enough manpower, you normally would organize your defense into two, more rarely three, defensive echelons so if the enemy breaks through the first line, he is faced with a second line of defense and his flanks are potentially exposed to envelopment from all sides. And just to make sure that your defenses hold, it is recommended to have a reserve force behind the 2nd line of defense ready to “plug” any “holes” and/or to be used in a counter-attack (and if things go well, this reserve for can be used as a maneuver group to counter-attack). With a few crucial exceptions, this is not the case in the Ukraine, especially not for the Russian forces who are roughly at a 1:3 numerical disadvantage. This 1:3 figure is misleading, because it ignores the kind of force ratios which can be achieved locally.
Conversely, the Russians have an advantage in 1) firepower 2) maneuverability (they can move under the protection of Russian airpower and artillery, which the Ukrainians cannot) 3) logistics 4) reach (the Russians can strike even in the far western Ukraine 5) C4ISR 6) morale and 7) training.
There is another rule of thumb which should not be taken as dogma, but which is still helpful to keep in mind: a successful attack often requires a 3:1 advantage for the attacking side. This ratio can go up to 6:1 and even higher in strongly built cities. Since the Russians already have an overall 1:3 DIS-advantage in manpower, it is quite possible that in specific segments of the front, that disadvantage might locally peak at even much worse ratios, yet another argument for the Russians to first grind down Ukronazi forces, if needed by conceding terrain, before engaging in any counter-attack/counter-offensive. And this is why
All these Russian advantages all dictate a flexible, mobile, defensive strategy to counter Ukrainian attacks.
In other words, it would be absolutely INSANE for Russians to try to hold a static defensive line at all costs just to prevent the Ukronazis to claim yet another “immense victory”. So, keeping this in mind, let’s revisit the Ukrainian “counter-offensives”, bullet style.
- These supposed “counter-offensives” were announced weeks in advance (which the Russians noticed)
- Then the Ukrainians began by sustained artillery strikes to weaken the Russian defenses (and, thereby, indicate again to the Russians where they planned to attack).
- Then the Ukrainians concentrated large forces (which the Russians saw, of course) and then threw them all into a (relatively) mass assault on what they believed were the weakest spots in the Russian defenses.
This is what happened north of Kherson and this is what is happening just north of Balakleia now. And it will happen again on other parts of the immense frontline. And, each time, the Russians will resist if/when possible, but they will quickly concede terrain and fall back if pressed hard, not only to save Russian lives (why waste them for a few trenches or buildings??) and to “pull in” the Ukrainians into a network of mobile defenses.
So how does a mobile defense work?
Basically, it uses the Russian advantages (firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) to save as many Russian lives as possible while killing as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible. Why? Because while terrain can always be re-conquered, dead soldiers cannot be resurrected.
So let me repeat this again: the Russians retreating before a determined Ukrainian attack is not the exception in this war, it is the rule. So we should EXPECT the Russians to do that every time the Ukrainians launch a mass assault and sends entire battalions into the Russian meat grinder.
Some have suggested that this is bad tactic since it gives Kiev a good PSYOP/PR opportunity. To this I will reply two things:
- Kiev does not need anything anchored in reality to declare “heroic victories”, they can literally take a photo in the “grey zone”, then quickly run away and present that as a huge victory (they did just that a few days ago)
- Russian commanders will not sacrifice Russian soldiers for a short lived PR victory. That would be both immoral and totally self-defeating.
Think of the Russian advantages for a second (again: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) and realize that they are all dependent on the Russian ability to fight against the Ukronazis with lower manpower which, in turn, should suggest to you that the single most precious element of the Russian warfighting machine is the Russian soldier: if the Russians tried to emulate Ukrainian “tactics” (i.e., throwing as much meat in the meatgrinder as available) they would quickly run out of the required manpower which, in turn, would create both military and political problems for the Kremlin.
And now, a flashback of sorts.
Remember when before the Russian SMO many observers including myself said that Russia would not invade the Ukraine simply because the Russians did not have the kind of numbers needed to invade the Ukraine? Well, this was true then and this is STILL true!
The SMO is not a regular combined arms operation and the Russians STILL do not have the kind of manpower to “occupy the Ukraine”. However, what the Russians did is the following:
- First, they gave the US/NATO (not the clowns in Kiev) an ultimatum which they knew the West would reject.
- Next, they basically destroyed the Ukrainian military as a coherent whole and broke it up into smaller, uncoordinated forces. Oh sure, after a week or so, the Ukrainians still had a few aircraft left, plenty of subunits (brigades and below), some air defenses, etc. but what they lost is the ability to use all these resources as part of a single plan!
- Then the Russians began slowly and methodically grinding down the huge Ukrainian force in the Donbass (that is the force whose attack the Russians preempted).
- They pushed hard along the coast creating a southern front which the Ukrainians had to protect, tying down Ukrainian forces (which are still terrified by a possible Russian land and amphibious assault towards Nikolaev and Odessa).
- And now they are basically waiting for the Ukrainians to come to them instead of going after the Ukrainians. Oh sure, when possible, the Russians will push forward, but they will concede terrain if/when needed.
Which leaves one last parameter: time.
Banderastan is a bloody mess, a failed state, a country 404 which is turning into a horror show run by a mix of local Nazis and US Neocons (what an ugly pair these two make!). Western governments, ALL OF THEM, are in really bad shape, all the Western economies have gone over the edge and are now falling into a recession and even into a fullscale de-industrialization. The biggest Western power, the USA, is run by a brain-dead old man, a former call-girl and with a Neocon ruling class which is absolutely terrified of the upcoming elections.
In sharp contrast, the Russian economy’s contraction will be in the 2% range by the end of the year, Putin is as popular as ever, as is Mishustin, the vast majority of Russians fully support the SMO and the Russian economy (a real economy, not a FIRE based one!) is flush with money and has the support of most of the planet.
So whose side is time on? I think that the answer is obvious. So the full list of Russian advantages should also include: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale, training and time.
[Sidebar: right now there is still plenty of forest and foliage in the Ukraine, but with the winter coming, this “green” cover will become very thin, making it even harder to hide for the Ukrainian forces! That is also one more reason why the Russians are now mostly waiting]
Remember how “Ze” spoke of a “million soldiers army”? Well, that is nonsense, of course, but it shows one thing:
“Ze” feels that his biggest advantage is to thrown tens and even hundreds of thousands of soldiers in suicidal attacks. As for the West, it poured so much money, manpower and hardware into the country 404 that many Western leaders now complain that their countries have now compromised their own reserves of weapon systems. The US alone is spending 228 million dollars PER DAY on the Ukrainian fiasco. In sharp contrast, Putin is now openly saying that the SMO has been “beneficial” for Russia!
Apparently, “Ze” and his Neocon masters want to try to “drown the Russian military in Ukrainian blood“. If you sincerely believe that this is a winning strategy, please contact me as I have some super bridges to sell you for very cheap prices :-)
Having said all that, if the next time the Russians retreat for a few kilometers you want to either freak out and declare that “all is lost” or proclaim with great gravitas that “Russia is losing the war”, by all means, feel free to do so. I will just ignore these claims simply because, frankly, I am sick and tired of repeating the same truisms over and over and over again, especially when plenty of “commentators” don’t even bother reading what I wrote, they just want to flood the comments section with their talking points!
If you rather trust Girkin-Strelkov or Arestovich that is fine by me as long as you don’t have to parrot their nonsense in the comments section which I consider as “deliberate pollution of the comments section”. That will get you banned and, once we have the “comments for signed-up commentators only” thing ready, I will simply remove you from the approved list.
Anyway, that is all I had to say for right now. I hope that the above has been helpful (though I am under no illusions: as I said, trolls don’t even bother reading what I write, they just need to populate the comments section with their slogans).
Andrei
I am reminded of the phrase “reculer pour mieux sauter”.
Dear Andrei,
Thank you for your explanation.
I am reminded of the phrase, “lol, cope harder.”
All true, except two small things. Of course, they’re personal opinions, but I don’t think that they are that off.
“Many of them show a total misunderstanding of the nature of the SMO”
Actually, from what I saw so far it looks like an anti-terrorist operation writ large, fundamentally not that different than the one conducted in Syria against the US proxies there. Anyone, who follows both fronts of operations can draw the parallels. The fact that the terrorists in question had a grip on the second largest country in Europe (and still have over most of its territory), had a navy and air force at the beginning and still have artillery and missiles, doesn’t change the nature of the operation, no matter how you label it. The Ukies eventually will exhaust the western arsenals, and to misquote Vladimir Vladimirovitch: the russians haven’t started yet.
“to post a map which, obviously, most people cannot make sense of”
As I wrote in my yesterday’s comment – if the map is correct, it looks like the ukies are allowed to advance. Into a trap. It’s general outlook is a classic cauldron, at which the russians, anyone would agree I hope, excel.
Yes. Russia is in no rush and is trying to harm as few civilians and Russians as possible. Russia, I think, wishes the Ukie’s would throw down there weapons and go hom. Putin even said that.
NATO is exhausting their military supplies and munitions. Does anyone know if Russia/LPR/DPR/Chechens break through these upcoming trenches, if the Ukie defense will collapse. Winter is right around the corner.
Very good and informative . THX.
An excellent piece Sir. If only some people would read your articles properly.
You explain why and how the Russian forces are working.
Time is the one thing western government does not have.
In a short time, the population will be on the streets, asking why they are cold and jobless.
Here in Britain, we have no idea how to remedy the coming storm.
Once winter hits,rioting may well begin.
Absolutely, time is one of Russia’s biggest advantages. That’s where the popcorn comes in handy.
But Americans want this TV program or movie or scripted fiction to be finished after 30, 60 or 90 minutes. We can’t handle reality and even worse is that we let Hollywood write the “feel-good” fantasy endings which we don’t give the “smack-down” which their lies deserve. But importantly for our emotions, we are very much too impatient. Yes, we know how the conventional war and the economic war will eventually end, be it in 2 years or even 30 years. And we worry about a nuclear end if the satanists running the evil empire become too upset. Scott Ritter says if the military leadership had the power then eventually this SMO will come to the conclusion that is already obvious to everyone. The concern is that the Pentagon is a servant of the ruling elite, an elite whose dollars are at stake, an insane and evil elite that may not be rational and who may not want the planet to survive their own defeat.
The military leadership of the US is into fantasy worlds. They tell the leadership what they want to hear. They vaccinated everyone even tho young people don’t die from Covid. 20 deaths from Covid before Vaxxes, Much more from Vaccines.CRT undermines unit cohesion and will mess up officer promotion. I am afraid leadership of US military is quite incompetent
Competency is frowned upon. Hard to control that from “above”. I was a Nam grunt in 66′-67′ and the incompetent “gung ho” officers were promoted (if they survived) or their atrocities covered up. I was an E-4 grunt and still in my teens but I knew which officers had a brain and who simply wanted advancement over MY dead body. I was mercifully wounded by “friendly, incompetent fire” and survived. I did have to be restrained on a mission from attacking my Platoon leader for putting me and my point mate in needless danger for HIS glory.
Maybe it is “Divine Providence” that the American military is in the poor condition that it is presently in and has to rely on “proxies” that are no match for what I consider as the “good guys”.
Russia does seem to be the key player in humanity’s hope for a sane community of mankind.
The really sad part is that in the 90s there were still A LOT of very competent US officers and I had the real pleasure and honor to study with some of them. Okay, they were an elite with typically captain and major ranks, all with undergrad degrees under the belt and professional experience to boot.
I am now very sad that I lost contact with them. Life happened and we lost contact. I wish I could talk to them now as I am absolutely sure that they would see the reality of things, not the stupid PR the idiot screen spews all day long.
But yeah, that was over 30 years ago :-(
Now we are left with clown à la General “Betrayus”…
You say it all!
“… Russia does seem to be the key player in humanity’s hope for a sane community of mankind.”
Thanks you and the Saker community ! Viva Russia
I have read that towards the end of the Vietnam War, “gung ho” US officers began to be fragged…often.
This is why I retired, after 33 years, despite my personal goal to stay in until age 60 (mandatory retirement age).
A number of current and ex leadership has criticized and cautioned against over-reach in Ukraine and urged negotiations. The latest was Kimmel, in the pages of the Wall Street Journal.
Nor are the Bidenites/Clintonites the only ones rah-rahing over this war. Mike Pompeo is calling for a worldwide US war to secure the planet’s energy reserves in the name of ‘democracy’. My own guess is that half of Trump’s base is against this war, half is for it.
According to a new piece by Pew Research, most liberals (democrats) now support NATO. But the Left is hostile to both NATO and this war.
” who may not want the planet to survive their own defeat.” True, but remember that it would
be preferable to die in a nuclear mushroom cloud, than to die of starvation in an Antifa
“re-education” camp.
Good God, seriously? Antifa has ZERO, I mean ZERO influence in anything. They’re completely infiltrated by the FBI and God knows who else. They have no political, or any kind of power. Which is too bad, but that’s the way it goes.
@Andrei,
Thank you for once again explaining the facts. I quite frankly have essentially stopped any meaningful comments on this site after multiple exchanges with the ‘panic mongers’ and concern trolls. One of those whom you recently exchanged comments with even went so far as to attack the memories of my deceased grandfather, a WWI veteran and his search for my uncle still MIA from WWII.
You and the team provide valuable service and it is appreciated.
Cheers!
I ask for your patience. We are ACUTELY aware of the troll problem (most of them paid by the alphabet soup) and we are working on a solution.
Cheers
Dear Andrei,
I figured that out as well.
Thanks for providing the information, the explanations and the patience. Something from my schooldays, wait, watch and learn. Thanks again.
War is not a hollywood movie, taking ground every hour, war is about strategy with discernment!! maximum gains with minimum loss, Everybody makes a huge deal when the Russians just take a few step ???
For the US war IS a Hollywood movie. Hollywood works for the Pentagon. Ever see a movie where Russians aren’t the bad guys? They have never experienced the real thing. Bombing some remote third-world country back to the stone age doesn’t count.
I am always happy when the Saker makes things clear, adds to confidence that Russia is for real, that Russia is doing well and the ‘freakers out’ are not right.
The way Russia is fighting this operation is incredibly the way the world must go about everything right now. Like business is to be run for example, in which labour must own and decide all issues with the best interest of all as the point….no sacrifice of labour to protect the profits and power of ‘ownership’!
The stage from the top sacrifices labour/the people, the interests of ordinary people where the elite decides on all social issues: And as all decisions are fundamental for society we see the negative basic consequences of elitist decisive social control and decision-making on ordinary people everywhere.
This does not appear to be the case with the Russian Russian SMO approach appears to be the opposite.
The Russian military may not be run on socialist principles but the war focus certainly appears to be driven basic concern for the people, the nation, citizens, to be fully informed by and responsive to the demands of the stage, of this day, and are winning for that reason.
This is why I agree with the comment that Russia/Putin represent the hope of humanity at this stage. And that is why I keep looking for Saker articles/comments/clarifications that clears up the situation, promotes confidence more than anyone else I encounter
Very informative (and concise) analysis.
That was very helpful TY Saker
one thought on us/eu crashing ecconomies/consumer spending to put pressure on China
in a desperate attempt to break up Russia/China alliance maybe ?
how can EU be so stupid, sucidal , blind ?
winter comes
Well, they just got even more stupid.
The EU is now considering a “price cap” on gas from the United States.
No, this is not the Onion.
They are really considering that.
https://www.rt.com/business/562376-eu-suggests-lng-price-cap/
Europe is finished, dead and buried already.
It’s over.
Now the continent will enter a long period of chaos (yes, the winter is coming and it will be loooooong).
This really breaks my heart, I love the Europe I was born in. But it does not exist anymore.
“I love the Europe I was born in. But it does not exist anymore.”
My wife feels the same about the UK.
The world has changed. Decades ago as a young man I stood in Europe with my generation as part of the British Army on the Rhine (B.A.O.R) and faced the USSR.
Nearly half a century on, a different diverse, multicultural and gender neutral generation faces a capitalist, traditional and democratic Russia and asks why they can’t adopt our values.
It’s a new generation in a new world and like previous generations before them, this one too has to learn life’s lessons the hard way.
I feel the same about the USA
I can say the same thing about the United States.
I feel the same about both Europe and the USA.
There was so much to love in both places.
It is a great tragedy what is happening in the West.
Les dirigeants Européens ne sont ni stupides, ni aveugles. Les formalités démocratiques par lesquelles ils accèdent au pouvoir ne sont qu’un artifice destiné à faire semblant….Une majorité d’électeurs français est en réalité loin de s’aligner sur les intérêts U.S, mais la mécanique électorale fait en sorte qu’il se dégage toujours ” une majorité” pour continuer la même politique depuis 40 ans….un gouvernement fidèle à la majorité réelle n’a aucune chance d’émerger, d’avenir…
Les dirigeants donc obéissent aux ordres décidés par les cercles du pouvoir réel qui sont dans l’ombre, qui se font passer pour des mouvements d’idées, de lanceurs d’alerte ou des forumeurs….
Translation. Mod:
Europe’s leaders are neither stupid nor blind. The democratic formalities by which they come to power are only an artifice intended to pretend….A majority of French voters is actually far from aligning themselves with U.S. interests, but the electoral mechanism ensures that there is always “a majority” to continue the same policy for 40 years…a government loyal to the real majority has no chance of emerging, of the future… The leaders therefore obey the orders decided by the circles of real power that are in the shadows, which pretend to be movements of ideas, whistleblowers or forumers….
An interesting map showing how much of the former Ukraine (or as someone called it after seeing them constantly whining U-Karen) has been freed so far during the SMO:
https://t.me/intelslava/36468
Once the Russians have freed Odessa and Transnistria, it’s the bit in the center that bothers me.
The ideal solution would be to go from the northern most tip of Transnistria and the left bank (ie approx 100 miles to the left) of the Dnipro river right up to Belarus.
It would be even better if the Russians could free the southern area of Nazikraine and make a corridor over to Hungary. That would mean Hungary and Serbia could become completely independent countries once they’ve left the EU dictatorship.
Leave the trash that’s left of Nazikraine on life support to the EU dictatorship like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania. Russia doesn’t need them.
It seems to me Moscow has plenty of time on its side, but Zelensky & NATO do not; in other words Moscow’s available time is inversely proportional to NATO’s. After all, winter is coming! :)
Looking as these suicidal Ukrainian offensives it seems to me Moscow can simply continue what it is currently doing, raining down artillery and air strikes, and still win this war. Why should Moscow blitzkreig its troops into Ukrainian fortifications, when the Ukrainians are happily running into the Russian meat grinder instead? Unless NATO launches a full-scale invasion against the Russian contingent in Transnistria, or a full-scale genocide against Russians in Odessa, I do not see any good reason for the Russian military to impulsively rush across what remains of Ukraine, except to save Russians still living along the Black Sea coast from a freezing winter.
Am I missing something?
“Ze”‘s motive is simple: to show a “peremoga” (victory) before the NATO meeting in Ramstein on the 8th.
His notion is simple: if it looks like we still have a chance, we will get more money, hardware and personnel.
The really scary thing is that there are still plenty of Ukrainians “Ze” can send to their deaths, even if this attack also fails, and even if the Ukronazis take another few peremogas which then will turn into zradas (defeats).
It is a bloodbath and a needless butchery, but the Nazi West does not care one bit (Ukie flags everywhere notwithstanding!).
At Ramstein USA announces another 675 million for Ukraine.
Russia has always been clear about saving lives, as well as destroying as little as possible, and that has to do with not contributing to creating hatred between the two nations for the future.
I posted pieces of this before, but if you really want to understand what is going on in Ukraine, you really need to understand the strategy and tactics of “mobile defense”. Sadly, it was pioneered by the Nazi’s during the Great Patriotic War, in the Ukraine, but apparently the Russians have mastered it now as well and are using it against the Amis/Brits/Ukes:
MOBILE DEFENSE VS STATIC DEFENSE:
Order in Chaos: The Memoirs of General of Panzer Troops ~ Hermann Balck
“I explained that as long as we were fighting in long thin lines and remained in an inflexible defense the Russians would mass incredibly large forces at the points of attack, and we would not be able to hold.”
“The Russians had been able to penetrate every linear defense that was based on the holding of the forwardmost lines because they could mass their forces at the decisive point without the risk of being encircled by our weak forces.”
“In contrast to Model, I wanted to conduct the main defense in the depth, far back from the effective range of the enemy’s artillery. Weak advance guards would be used to screen our main positions. The mass of every division was to be positioned in depth, ready to counterattack at any time to retake lost advance guard positions, or as a reserve to be deployed laterally to any developing trouble spot.”
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23368260-order-in-chaos
WHAT “MOBILE DEFENSE” LOOKS LIKE:
The Devil’s Virtuosos: German Generals at War, 1940-5 – David Downing
“He was fortunate at this juncture to find in General Lucht an infantry commander who understood well
the principles of panzer defense. The infantry would guard the ‘front-door’, and if occasionally forced to admit an intruder, would endeavor to shut the door behind him. Inside the house 11th Panzer would play the ‘avenger’ role, seeking out the intruder and destroying or ejecting him.” (pg 124)
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1978415.The_Devil_s_Virtuosos
Order in Chaos: The Memoirs of General of Panzer Troops ~ Hermann Balck
“The 336th Infantry Division was positioned solid as a rock on the Chir River. Everything depended on it holding fast, even in the most desperate situations. It was the shield and the pivot for all of the operations of the 11th Panzer Division. The 336th understood its mission completely. Showing strong nerves, the 336th mastered every crisis it faced. That made it possible for the 11th Panzer Division to attack the Russians with concentrated force anywhere they broke through. General Lucht never lost his nerve.”
“From 9 December through the 17th the days were all the same. The Russian forces would break through at location X. We would counterattack, and in the evening everything was back to normal.” (pg 301-302)
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23368260-order-in-chaos
Regarding the map posted by Saker, the two books above are full of similar maps. The battles along the Chir River in 1942 are textbook examples of what the Saker is talking about.
I hope this helps.
Yes, this is good stuff.
Thank you for posting it!!
Great stuff! So informative
Thank you Saker…As always, insightful.
Again: after victory, Russia will be faced with guerilla war with remnants of nazi battalions.
It is much better if ALL nazis are destroyed during SMO than to wait them to emerge from underground later. By giving Zelensky illusion that he may eventualy come victorious, Russians lured Ukraine military into trap again and again. If victory was quick and decisive, nothing of that would happened. This way nazis are pulled out their holes and methodically exterminated. Number of military aged men in Ukraine is irrelevant. Nor size of the army. Only Nazis and their western handlers matters. When they are zeroed, the war will be over.
“Demilitarization and denazification”, remember?
Again: after victory, Russia will be faced with guerilla war with remnants of nazi battalions.
It is much better if ALL nazis are destroyed during SMO than to wait them to emerge from underground later.
As I understand, the bulk of these hardcore Nazis come from Western Ukraine. Why would Moscow want to occupy that area? I am quite sure Vladimir Putin is not eager to repeat the mistakes of Stalin by annexing Lvov.
As for other Nazis, you are aware that there are Ukrainian sympathisers within Russian borders, yes? According to Russian police it was certain Russian citizens within Moscow that helped facilitate the murder of Darya Dugina; and there are also a handful of Russian citizens that have facilitated pro-Ukraine terrorism elsewhere.
” I am quite sure Vladimir Putin is not eager to repeat the mistakes of Stalin by annexing Lvov.”
No, he did not annex Lvov. He took it back.
”Following a private agreement at the Tehran Conference, confirmed at the 1945 Yalta Conference, the Allied leaders Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Stalin issued a statement affirming the use of the Curzon Line, with some five-to-eight-kilometre variations, as the eastern border between Poland and the Soviet Union.[5] When Churchill proposed to annex parts of Eastern Galicia, including the city of Lviv, to Poland’s territory (following Line B), Stalin argued that the Soviet Union could not demand less territory for itself than the British Government had reconfirmed previously several times,(me: since December 1919). The Allied arrangement involved compensation for this loss via the incorporation of formerly German areas (the so-called Recovered Territories) into Poland. As a result, the current border between Poland and the countries of Belarus and Ukraine is an approximation of the Curzon Line.”
Curzon Line, from Wikipedia
Thank you for the education about the Curzon Line. When referring to “Stalin’s mistakes” I was referring to this map: https://www.sott.net/image/s22/447360/full/static1_squarespace_com_.png
That said, it is clear the overwhelming majority of Western Ukraine despises Russian people. Despite the historical Russian claim there is no way the Ukrainians living there would accept Moscow’s control. Better to let Poland annex Lvov and the rest of Western Ukraine, and let the Polish government rebuild that place. Meanwhile the Russian military can fortify the lands along the Black sea and Kharkov province, once a referendum confirms those people’s desire to become provinces of the Russian Federation.
Thank you for your clarification. It is clear that the map can not explain by itself, what happened there in 1919 and afterwards. In any case, let us ”give to Stalin what was of Stalin and to Putin what will be of Putin”, when the time comes. SU did not annex eastern Galicia and Lvov, but western Ukraine, I agree, is really a ”hot potato” problem.
Its a very serious thing to organise sabotage on own country under war conditions. its death penalty.
I would conclude that these Russians could only exist with help and support from outside the country, and we are back to our usual suspects.
I notice on Dima’s maps that the Nazi brigades are all positioned somewhat to the rear, serving mainly to hold the conscripts from retreating or deserting. Thus, it seems they do not get killed, sad to say. Is this assessment correct?
Most informative, thank you!
Another great video on the saga of the war against Russia “freeze,freeze Wolf tail says President Putin to the EU” :
LIVE STREAM: Wednesday September 7th 2022 – News From Saint Petersburg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aup9V0myMRQ
Ps,included is a delusional story that illustrates the insane reporting in the west. They claim the Ukies are making gains in the Karkov area. And are so ignorant that they say Russia captured Kharkov already back in May,lol:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-retakes-key-terrain-in-blow-to-russia-supply-lines-general/ar-AA11y9Es?cvid=0bcb1a2db7094300a6b786226f9ac2bc&ocid=winp2sv1plustaskbarhover
The old hometown looks the same
As I step down from the train
And there to meet me was Mr Kalibr and Mr Sarmat
Down the road I look and there runs Ukie
Limbs all mangled and lips all bloody
Don’t fuck with the green green grass of home.
Excellent piece.
Just want to hear your prediction, when will Russia push back?
How would I know? I have no access to Russian military plans.
I guess I could reply “when the time is right” as determined by the Russian General Staff (as opposed to hysterical “allislosters” ;-)
Indeed Mr. Andrei.
As i read before here or in Moon of Alabama or in the Martyanov’s blog, this SMO will be object of studies in military academies worldwide for decades ahead.
And I believe, will be a landmark in a how-to-make in specific operations like retake friendly land when enemy makes the civilians as an human shield.
this SMO will be object of studies in military academies worldwide for decades ahead.
Yes, and not only for its successes, but also for its failures. This is a new type of warfare, so failures are inevitable – they key is not to allow them to become catastrophic (and I see zero signs of that happening so far!).
Russia has held true to the long-established MO: doing exactly what Russia said that Russia would do. Russia has been attempting to preserve life and infrastructure while eradicating the threat of genocides against ethnic Russians.
Now the TIME element of the Russian strategic advantage is developing on another front and penetrating the long fortified and closed minds of the propagandized West with a simple question – would the Hegemon act to similarly protect their lives and wellbeing? It is rapidly dawning in the chilly recesses of those CIA-Media saturated minds that the answer is clearly NO.
The attitude of the Hegemon to Ukrainian lives is the attitude of the Hegemon to all lives – they are expedient at best, cattle to be slaughtered. Human chattel are merely items in a spreadsheet representing earnings and costs, profits and losses, devoid of essential meaning or Soul. Democracy? It never existed. At last that illusion is also being shredded in confrontation with reality. It is an ideal worth trying at some point if we survive the next Winter.
Looking at the original map, my first thought was a local incursion and not a full scale frontal push. My second thought was what happens when the north and south entry points close and the Ukrainians who have pushed through that narrow gap find themselves surrounded on all sides. Rather like a group of people entering a house and suddenly the door slams shut behind them.
The Kherson attack was both bigger and wider.
Now they are trying for a much “thinner” penetration, in spite of the looming envelopment danger such an approach involves.
I agree to most of what you say but I would like to add to it.
From a archaeological historical point of view the first thing the West does is characterizes Russians as Boris and Natasha (Rocky and Bullwinkle) stereotyping Russians
If you search current Russian Military Doctrine it is very clear where they are coming from and what are the trip wire redlines. Russia does it hide this. Any neocon can read it and ignore it at their peril.
Russia today is not Stalin’s Soviet Russia. They are not the same although some internal mechanisms might seem similar unless you follow the bread crumbs of their evolution.
The Russian Military Doctrine is defensive to protect Russia, Russian Citizens and Allies plus friendly nations with the clearly stated goal not to destroy civilians or civilian infrastructure (which is sometimes very difficult).
The West is describing the Russian BTG based on difficulties in 2017 but not on how Russia has published on the internet their BTG structure and real time coordination. As you correctly said the US and the West has not fought a real war especially on mixed terrain.
Goal one of the SMO fix in place mobile capable AFU military units while establishing total air superiority while lightning attacks to gain intelligence.
I think Russian intelligence gave the West and Ukraine to much credit to see the big picture. The SMO had fixed mobile units in place and could deny mobility throughout Ukraine. Therefore there was no quick peace since the West did not see Ukraine was in Atari. The west and Ukraine failed to understand that all units in front of Donetsk City and other Places were in fixed fortifications along the front lines.
In WW2 what happened to the famous detergent the Margonet (Marginal) Line? It was blitzkreig from the air and mass armor attack punctured behind to encircle and destroy. The terrain chosen was an aweful choice. The only thing right Ukraine did was choose most of their fortifications on high ground and poured a lot of cement.
Russia employed Stalingrad tactics on Ukraine with high mobility BTGs , air power, massive artillery and highly motivated local militias. Thus overcoming the shortcomings projected on the Russian by western intelligence.
The west did not and does not realize Russia has been preparing for this since the formation of the Russian Federation and their mantra is still “No step back” plus they are employing all the tactics used inSoviet Storm the Nazi’s now with highly coordinated BTGs etc.
The history of the formation goes back in time to the Cossacks who would ride through enemies lines, deep attack, and either encircle or draw the enemy to over extend their counter. Creating the rear being closed and a Turkey shoot from all sides. In the Kherson region Russia allowed the Ukrainians to cross the river on easily destroyed pontoon bridges and drew them into a fighting retreat within a narrow corridor and smashed them. The terrain was horrible for the Ukrainians since it is flat open step land, no buildings or factories to hide in so they were sitting ducks for Russian air delivered dumb bombs. Guess what what happened Russia did the lure and trap again, and again.
The Ukrainian troops are not tactically trained to not group up and spread their troops to create fields of fire. Plus their supply line logistics is like a thin rubber band. This is tragic.
So what did they do in Kharkiv region? The same thing. Russia blew the bridge (unlike the Germans didn’t at Ramagin WW2 reference) and their troops were stuck again, maybe with a bit of more cover, but Russia has been there for many months. Another Turkey shoot. Tragic.
All warfare are wars of attrition. In this case Russia shaped the battlefield with the hope someone in the West would see it was time to negotiate. They didn’t.
The tactics employed by the Red Army in the factories of Stalingrad is exactly what the Russians have been doing in the Donbas and Mariupol. Pound the hell out of the Ukrainian positions, do again and again, probe for weakness with the militia infantry supported by Russian specialists and mobile BTGs and clear ( the US Army called this leapfrogging). The degree of coordination is quite frightening.
From the classical battle models the use of Trojan Horses and Thermpolis tactics has been nearly flawless.
The West and Ukraine are playing tic tac toe while the Russians are playing 3D Go. I think this is controlled topographical positional conflict on the ground with air and missile dominance and special military equipment.
The West forgets the remarkable comeback the Soviet Army, Air Force, Mechanized Units did plus their multiple rocket launchers after they were pushed almost to Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad and then incrementally throwing the Nazi armies back, back incrementally by attrition back to Berlin.
27 million Russians died, soldiers and civilians and they will not and should not forgot what they accomplished during the Great Patriotic War.
My last point concerns Russian Diplomacy. Theirs is routed in history going way back when the Monarchies ruled Europe. Russian diplomats are fully versed in their countries Military Doctrine and they know all steps must be taken to avoid engaging in a War. They know the Red lines and they know to whom they are responsible for because they were involved vs the US the Pentagon does one thing and the Department of State tells them something else so that US Doctrines are ambiguity holes.
Ukraine has no air cover, minimal missile launchers and a command and control that most times is absent from the battlefield. Tactically speaking Ukrainians only seem to know is terror attacks and direct frontal damn the terrain assaults and follow the hare.
Media optics like carpet bombing Iraq back to the Stone Age and saying it was a victory is a travesty and expends more treasure then received. Because aggressive wars are resource piracy vs defenses war try and preserve resources and might use less treasure.
For your readers I would suggest reading some military history concerning Stalingrad and the push to Berlin. The very interesting thing is reading about the last month in the Hitler Bunker and one will see many of the tactics of Adolph being used by Zelensky today.
Ukrainian troops are not tactically trained to not group up and spread their troops
If that’s accurate, the main reason must be so their troops do not desert at the first good opportunity.
As the evil of the Kiev regime becomes more obvious to ignorant Ukrainians, and as the total defeat become more clear, it becomes harder for the UAF to hold onto competent soldiers. So the bunching-up will only get more extreme over time.
very helpful analysis Saker, thank you!
I was very struck by the view set forth in the latest Deizen Report blog that America/NATO lie about the numbers of weapons sent to Ukraine in order (a) to conceal the extent to which the arms and ammunition cupboards of the West have been emptied and (b) to foster the Wunderwaffen mythos by pretending that far fewer launchers and other systems are inflicting the damage than really are. Is the West demilitarizing itself as Dreizen claims, and if so, does that mean that the West no longer has enough weaponry to intervene in Ukraine even if its Hawks wanted to?
On the US, “run by former call-girl”
Please explain, Mr Saker
She started her career as the mistress for San Francisco mayor Willie Brown. Brown appointed her to this and that commission and it went on from there.
correct
the USA has a bona fide hooker as VP.
Diversity, you know….
Dear Andrei,
I appreciate very much your explanation of the current events.
It strongly reminds me of the new Jugoslav military doctrin established in 1968 –
it planned for a potential external attack the following scenario:
giving up the (lowland) territories in the north-east (Slovenia, Vojvodina, half of Croatia) and retreat the forces to Central Bosna, Southern Serbia and Crna Gora. Let the aggressor conquer the lowlands, which are not defendable anyway, and put up resistance in the mountains.
And win the war where your fathers won their war – don’t waste lives to defend an indefensable territory.
But for some people it’s hard to understand that giving up territory doesn’t mean defeat, as gaining territory doesn’t mean victory.
Glad to see here people with sane recognition and analysis of events.
Can you guess which country had a very similar doctrine?
(…)
Switzerland!
Though the initial plans would have been to defend the plateau, but if that failed, the mountains would be the place to make a stand.
Cheers
It seems like “Middle” and “Upper” Balakleya river is a perfect spot to let in Ukrop army, where in a short time, they will not have time to build up proper infantry artillery shelters. We need to take in account, that all relevant bridges were destroyed on Middle Balakleya river. So the further the Russians let Ukrainians penetrate through this bottleneck to the east between the two rivers, the longer are supplies lines and the longer way back every wounded soldier has to be driven – all through single road life line T2110. This is probably already similar scenario as in 2014 in Debaltsevo. Poor mercenaries and Ukrainian forced draftees, there must be some couple of thousands of them already dead in this 2-3 already lasting counteroffensive. This is probably going to be another apocalyptic kill zone field layout, from which school books will be written.
Thanks old sovjet soldier, for explaining.
greatings from The Netherlands,
Ave Caesar, morituri te salutant
I never served in the Soviet (or Russian) army. sorry!
I have been teaching geography in a small community college in the US for over 10 years. And this statement made me laugh:
“to post a map which, obviously, most people cannot make sense of”
That is more true that you can imagine!
La souricière, la phalange, le marteau et l’enclume, rien de tel pour anéantir en une seule bataille un empire qui regroupe toutes ses forces, surtout ses esclaves obligés de se battre pour lui.
———————
Google-translate by mod:
The mousetrap, the phalanx, the hammer and the anvil, nothing like it to destroy in a single battle an empire which brings together all its forces, especially its slaves forced to fight for him.
Good explanation, I didn’t read the comments section yesterday but it must have been a bit frustrating. Thing is though it takes time to really get a grasp of military affairs if you’re a civilian, I was lucky because I started early studying WW2 when I was 8 years old because my grandmother was German and she told me about it a bit. She was there as a kid during the war and I wanted to know more about it, so I went to the library across the street and picked up a huge book which detailed the whole war, causes and effects, every engagement at the divisional level and above e.t.c. Ever since then I was absolutely fascinated with all things military related.
Saker:
I`m new to this blog but see Strelkov brought up alot elsewhere particularly on Russian language military sites.
On one site good for videos of the SMO he seems to have his own regular reports that are not translated
Many Russian bloggers say some of his warnings have come true, others he`s just bitter with poor judgement.
What`s the deal with him?, if you have a link to any previous opinions?
He played a relatively important role very early on, then he got batshit crazy and joined the 6th columnist and their mantra “all is lost! all is lost! all is lost!”.
Considering that he is doing that while Russian soldiers are fighting and dying, I would call him an objective traitor to Russia. Ditto for the entire 6th column.
YMMV of course.
As for the Russian Telegram channels, they range from very good to absolutely awful.
Tonight, for example, both the flag-waving “patriots” and the (white) flag waving defeatist are out in force, both spewing total bullshit for the sake of clicks and a salary from their patrons.
I urge you to be VERY cautious with Russian language Telegram channels (many are not even Russian!).
“the Russians retreating before a determined Ukrainian attack is not the exception in this war, it is the rule.”
It is a wise ancient practice, an adjunct to the “attack and retreat”.. it is actually a more intelligent way to fight, protective of limited numbers of fighting men, which requires superior courage in a less clear fluid environment. It’s challenging with a premium on nimbleness of thought and movement. Every continent and era has had those fearless mobile warriors – think native Americans “hit and run” skirmishes and ambushes, and similar was done by Saladin against the earlier Crusaders (but often without the retreat/run portion) with their heavier forces and set pieces..
You could say today it’s a clash between Hollywood optics and sensibilities & the waiting Hammer and Anvil.
The best strategists adapt to the specific forces under their command, to the terrain and to the terms or limits of engagement. No western aggressor has long out-thought Russians in 1,000 years and will not hit the jackpot now!
Since you mention history: the Tatars also loved to draw the Russian Princes out into the steppe, let them advance for DAYS and then burn the steppe before killing any survivors.
The science of retreating is one of the most complex, yet most important, aspects of warfare.
Many PhD theses have been written about it, alas most are still classified.
Sehr gute Stellungnahme zur aktuellen Situation. Meine tägliche Lektüre sind unter anderem “Readovka” und “rifan.ru” sowie der “Antispiegel”. Ich habe den Eindruck, sie berichten korrekt.
Ziel der “Sonderoperation” war ja die Entmilitarisierung und die Entnazifizierung der Ukraine.
Meine Frage, bleiben beide Ziele auf der Tagesordnung und wie wird der zeitliche Rahmen aussehen, um diese Ziele zu erreichen? Im übrigen hätte man da ja auch in Westeuropa noch viel zu tun.
Nicht mehr gesprochen wird über die nukleare Option, ist diese nicht mehr aktuell, welche Position dazu haben die USA und Rußland in Bezug auf den aktuellen Konflikt?
Der Widerstand der Bevölkerung zur Sanktionspolitik des “Westens” gegen Rußland nimmt in vielen europäischen Ländern zu. Die explodierenden Preise für Energie usw. gehen für viele Betrieb und Familien an die Substanz, die Regierungen fürchten sich zurecht vor Aufständen. Wie kann in diesem Zusammenhang eine positive Sichtweise auf Rußland hergestellt werden? Unsere Medien schreiben unisono: Putin ist schuld, sogar wenn das Toilettenpapier teurer wird. Jedenfalls werden sich die Widersprüche weiter zuspitzen und hoffentlich können die Bürger mit ihrem Widerstand dieser wahnsinnige Politk der Eliten einhalt gebieten.
Im Moment ist es ja den amerikanischen Eliten gelungen, die Thesen und Forderungen von McKinder und Brezinski: “keine Verbindung zwischen Deutschland und Rußland” umgesetzt zu haben.
Weiterhin bin ich gespannt auf die Beiträge im “Saker”.
Karl Müller
———————-
Google-translate from mod:
Very good comment on the current situation. My daily reading include “Readovka” and “Rifan.ru” as well as the “AntiSpiegel”. I have the impression that they report correctly.
The aim of the “special operation” was the demilitarization and the denazification of Ukraine.
My question, both goals remain on the agenda and what will the time frame look like to achieve these goals? Incidentally, there was still a lot to do in Western Europe.
It is no longer talking about the nuclear option, is it no longer up to date, what position do the US and Russia have in relation to the current conflict?
The resistance of the population on the sanction policy of the “West” against Russia increases in many European countries. The exploding prices for energy, etc. go to the substance for many business and families, the governments are rightly afraid of uprisings. How can a positive view of Russia be produced in this context? Our media write in unison: Putin is to blame, even if the toilet paper becomes more expensive. In any case, the contradictions will continue to worsen and hopefully the citizens can stop with their resistance of this insane political political.
At the moment, the American elites have managed to have implemented the theses and demands of McKinder and Brezinski: “No connection between Germany and Russia”.
I am also looking forward to the contributions in the “Saker”.
Karl Müller
Why is the concept of “time” a factor in military conflict? It’s not a chess match or a team sport where a clock determines when play ends, the exception being American baseball.
Men, materials and political or economic objectives dictate the continuum between the adversaries. Even weather, which can delay battles, is not a final arbiter. Mother nature acts more like a referee that blows a whistle signifying a short timeout. When rain, blizzards, wind, fog, etc. stop, the war continues on.
Russia is depleting Ukrainian men and materials and the national economy of Ukraine suffers in parallel with the duration of the conflict. Zelenskyy pushes the war on because he is (1) relatively safe from personal harm as long as he is obedient to those in control of him (2) provided with materials and tactical leadership by U.S.-NATO (3) is financially rewarded for being the media focal point in the devastation of his homeland.
When will the SMO end?
It will end when Russia says so. Unlike the U.S., President Putin is not concerned with midterm elections, the health of his nation’s economy, the approaching winter or the calendar mounted on the wall in his office.
Being physically cold is a great motivator to choose a different path and perhaps the heads of Europe will come to their senses and abandon the insanity of their American “colleagues.”
Всему своё время .
Why is the concept of “time” a factor in military conflict?
Because warfare is about maneuver (speed), force concentrations (speed), logistics/supplies and many other factors which are all time dependent.
War is very very expensive so kings and prime ministers want the wars to be over quickly before the entire nation is forever indebted to international financiers. Both Ukraine and the rest of Europe still has plenty of public resources (water, power, road tolls etc) and farm land that can be sold off to those with deep pockets of printed money.
In fact playing a silly game like Europe Universalis II would prepare you 1000-fold better than Europes current leaders.
Its been reported that the ukraine is not accepting woman into the military at this point in time, apparently plenty of men have chosen to fight so as to not need woman, or so they say.
Now if lots of new fighters want to band up and attack an area, you could get a temporary push back, but a permanent win in the media.
Which is what is most needed, to see at least one set of boots on the ground making progress is enough to encourage new getto fighters to fight the next battle.
And it really helps pay the media bills too as they can only report good news, even if they have to find a way to temporarily make it up themselves.
some, but not all, women are being mobilized.
again, “Ze” needs as much cannon fodder as the Ukraine can provide.
Unless he and his Neocon masters are stopped, this will be a bloodbath of genocidal proportions (much MUCH bigger than the fake “genocide” in Bosnia!)
Dear Sir,
Thank you very much for this brief yet very informative review. Following also Martyanov, I think as an ex soldier I understand the situation better. I think that the Russian tactics in this conflict will be taught in military academies.
Best wishes,
Leonidas
Oh for sure, the SMO will be studied for both its successes and mistakes. For many years to come and by all (thinking) sides (not by the narcissistic racists running the US military nowadays).
Poor Ukie soldiers. I’d bet 75% of them don’t even want to be fighting this war in the first place, they are probably desperate to find a way out besides death. I have read on several occasions where Ukie general’s suggestions and request have been ignored, refused and over-ridden by Zelensky. This reminds me of exactly what Hitler did during The Great Patriotic War {WW2}. So the war from the Ukie side is being planned and executed by political means, and not military strategy and tactics. That is how I know Washington and London are directing this war from the Ukie side, that is how they fight wars nowadays. But I do disagree with the notion that the US has never fought a real war. The US {and the UK to a lesser degree} was the only world power during WW2 that fought in two theaters, fighting the Japanese almost alone. The Russians like to claim that the US didn’t open up a second front until after they had already beaten the Germans back to the western areas of the Ukraine and Poland, but weren’t the US in North Africa in 1942? Sicily and Italy in 1943? The War in the Atlantic from 1941 onward? And who lost tens of thousands of lives getting supplies to Arkhangelsk and Murmansk? Poor Soviet soldiers were being by-passed, pocketed and captured by the hundreds of thousands by the Germans because they had no modern transports, and had to march on foot everywhere they went until Lend-Lease supplied Dodge trucks arrived in sufficient numbers by 1943, when the tide turned in their favor. True, the US lacks the industrial capacity to fight a peer nation today like this. Having fought nothing but proxy wars for the last seventy plus years against walk over armies has given them a false sense of invincibility. No one has had to fight a peer directly since 1945. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I put nothing pass NATO once it becomes apparent they have lost their puppet.
I’d bet 75% of them don’t even want to be fighting this war in the first place, they are probably desperate to find a way out besides death.
The Ukies have three levels of attack: ahead of everybody, the special operation forces, followed by properly trained soldiers, followed by the Ukie equivalent of the Volksturm. The first ones fight well and are motivated (even the Russians say that). The second ones run as soon as things go south. The last ones are absolutely terrified and try to run away, often only to be shot by Nazi “security forces”.
Also, remember that casualty rates (for both KIA and MIA) go DOWN the better trained your force is. Ukronazi SOF take far less casualties than their less trained colleagues.
For the ObsoleteMan:
And how many German divisions the early points of Allied military engagements tied, engaged? The Russian front fought 7 divisions of every eight the Germans rised. That counts. Stalin asked: and how many the Pontiff (il p Papa Tedesco . . . ) truly has? That counts, when judging war effort. Not the plurality of bigger and smaller Western or African skirmishes with even the Fox of the Desert.
And what of the USSR’s Navy during WW2? How many U-boats did they sink? And their strategic bombers? How many targets over the Reich and Nazi allied countries did they attack prior to February of 1945? Crickets. Allied strategic bombing {USAAF & RAF} significantly reduced Germany’s industrial capacity and railway transport ability {war production vastly reduced, and what was able to be produced, had much difficulty getting to the front}. My uncle’s bomber group attacked the Ploesti fuel refinery twice {it was bombed a total of four times} at great loss to his comrades, but it greatly reduced Germany’s fuel production, and aided the Red Army immensely. Germany had great difficulty making it’s losses good due to American and British strategic bombing. 16 million men under arms {US alone} weren’t just sitting around playing cards, as the old Soviet propaganda would like for everyone to believe.
If not tragic, you would make me laugh.
“Allied strategic bombing {USAAF & RAF} significantly reduced Germany’s industrial capacity and railway transport ability” – you are right only if you keep to reading books. Down here on the ground, it was different. Annihilating Dresded did not reduce any German industrial capacity, and one of the most industrial towns where also V2 rockets were constructed, i.e. Pilsen, the industrial complex there was totally destructed only on 24/April/1945, just a few days before the USArmy entered. Just a reminder – the war finished here on 9/May/1945. Thus, here it seems clear – the US Army detroyed the local industries and factories to get hold of the countries. The same as in Iraq,Syria, Kosovo….
good read on Russia Japan war in Manchuria. Russians wiped out close to a million Japanese httpss://www.armyupress.army.mil/Books/Browse-Books/Leavenworth-Papers/
I estimate the chances of a coup in Ukraine in the next 12 months at 75%. I’d be interested what odds other people give and their reasons.
and you base that figure on what exactly?
Please do not post such “drive by comments” here.
thank you
Fair comment. My estimate is bssed on wishful thinking on my part, Saker.
“This 1:3 figure is misleading, because it ignores the kind of force ratios which can be achieved locally.”
This is an important point. the 3:1 advantage the Ukrainisns hold is for the entire country of Ukraine over the Russian forces in the east.
For the Russian forces in the east, it has never been a 3:1 advantage. Everyone knows that at the start of the SMO, the Ukrainian forces in the east numbered between 45,000 and 100,000. I lean toward the 100,000 number since it appears clear Ukraine intended to start an offensive against Donbass sometime during or after February.
Therefore, it is clear that the Russian forces which invaded Ukraine numbered about 110-120,000 (according to Lavrov) plus the 20-30,000 Donbass militia. I don’t know if Lavrov’s figures included the Chechen forces which were initially 5,000 and then increased to about 15,000. So that puts the Russian forces at a minimum of 130,000 to 165,000. Clearly Russia was never outnumbered at the eastern front, or if they were, it was somewhere around 1.2:1 or 1.4:1.
Of course, over time, Ukraine has rushed numerous reserves to the eastern front, probably several hundred thousand, based on estimates that suggest that up to 200,000 have been killed and wounded so far. Russia has also reinforced its forces there, by an unknown amount, although apparently somewhere between 30-60,000 men in new brigades have been raised lately, called the “3rd Army”.
In reality, no one knows the exact numbers of anything – live, dead or wounded – nor what remains of Ukrainian forces elsewhere in the country.
What is clear is that the Russians have quality superiority in troops and hardware, regardless of the numbers. They especially have clear superiority in operational doctrine as The Saker and Andrei Martyanov have stressed. The Ukrainians have been incompetent, whether on their own or whether led by the US/UK military.
Everyone knows that at the start of the SMO, the Ukrainian forces in the east numbered between 45,000 and 100,000.
Oh really?
Tell that to Ze and his “million soldiers army”
Anyway, the real figure was 175’000-200’000, not 45’000 or 100’000
Based on what? I never heard the 200,000 figure once during 2021 or the run up to the start of the SMO. Can you cite a non-Ukrainian source for that figure? I’m talking about the forces on the contact line in Donbass, not the entire country of Ukraine.
200,000+ professional contract soldiers, most of which are dead now. I expect their current total army is struggling to reach parity with RUS federation coalition, which is about 100,000 Professional contract soldiers +80,000 LPR, DPR Militia.
Dear sir.
You should know, that most of the commentators live in the west. In our media we have only one truth and this is Ukraine is a innocent victim and is winning. Zelensky is everywhere, his picture will soon be even under the cover of a jar. Ukrainian flags are on main buildings in my country They can even present illogical lies like shelling the power plant. So when we hear the news that Russians have victims and are retreating, some pro Russians in the west are a little scared. They know about western propaganda and lies but have a doubt what if a little of it is truth. This is the reason, so you shouldn’t be so hard with your commentators. Most of the commentators probably don’t have personal ties with Russia but they see the faults of their governments and are for a friendly cooperation with Russia for the benefit of both sides.
Thank you.
Okay, but then WHY in the world do they post nonsense with immense gravitas and aplomb?
A year ago, everybody was a virologist. Now they are all 3-4 star generals.
Nobody has taken the time, often decades, to actually study these topics.
Besides, most trolls are paid for their trolling. Many are AI too.
Bottom line is this: if they are ignorant, let them ask a question. Or lurk and read.
But posting idiotic information cannot be excused because “well, I heard it on the telly” or “everybody is saying”.
I get it, in a post-truth age of terminal relativism and entitlement, people are now told that having an opinion is a “right”. It is not a right, it is a capability. And if tehy don’t have it, then they are better off staying silent and away from my comments section.
Just wait till his picture shows up on western Milk cartons……or the back of Rental trucks …’have you seen this child’….please call 404 long distance.
Cheers M
Dear Saker, I came to this block by indication of my fellow countryman Pepe Escobar. Since then I have been toasted with your analyses. Master, Russia is going to have a stock of ammunition until winter, how does this replacement happen?
Russia is flush with money, immense ammo stores and a top of the line MIC.
It is the West which is whining about running out of ammo, not Russia :-)
It was quite funny to see the western MSM say that Russia was desperately buying large amounts of ammunition from North Korea … and implying that meant Russia was somehow losing.
Aside from the fact that there was zero evidence given for this claim of purchasing … if you assume that it is true, then it could be a much more subtle thing than driven by any shortages.
More likely a sensible decision to preserve the stocks of locally produced munitions while converting some of this years windfall energy profits into extra reserves, and at the same time helping the economy of ‘friendly’ North Korea.
Most countries with an arms industry buy from and sell to other countries. They do so in times of peace and also in times of war. Russia is no different to any of the NATO or other global arms producing countries in this regard. By calling out Russia for this common practice as a “gotcha” moment they are showing their weakness to the fact that they have nothing left of any physical or propaganda value to sustain their attacks. In short, that’s what losers do.
“the Russian STILL do not have the kind of manpower to “occupy the Ukraine”.
This is also a bit misleading. If Russia were to follow the standard Western way of “occupying” a country, it might be true. If you try to put a soldier on every street corner, as the West did in Germany in 1045, or in Iraq, it is true.
Russia doesn’t have to do that because Russia doesn’t have to “occupy” Ukraine. They just have to “control” Ukraine. That means securing the government buildings in each oblast and in Kiev, plus significant assets such as the Zaporizhizia NPP and the like. This can be done with far fewer forces than would be needed to occupy every village and hamlet in the country.
People also say you can’t occupy Kiev with its 3 million population with 30-40,000 troops, as was suggested as the intent early on in the war. In reality, you can. What matters is how many enemy forces are in the city, not the civilian population. With 30,000 troops supported by armor inside a city, no civilian reaction is going to change the outcome if there are no enemy soldiers there in support. That is why the Russians didn’t try to take Kiev (aside from the fact they didn’t need to): Ukraine had tens of thousands of soldiers in the city and the surrounding area. So Russia merely fixed them in place.
But if the current Russian forces roll up to Kiev, they can take Kiev. They don’t need a half million men like Scott Ritter suggests in his videos. Once Ukraine’s military between the east and Kiev have been ground down, Ukraine is unlikely to have enough forces remaining in Kiev to stop a 175-200,000 strong Russian army with full armor, artillery and air supremacy. As long as the Russians do not piecemeal their forces all over the place, they will be basically unassailable. The size of the city and the size of the population are irrelevant.
In any event, any time Russia decides it needs more forces, it will bring them in, as they appear to be doing now with this “3rd Army” of 30-60,000 volunteers they have raised and trained, probably to provide reserve forces and rear are security and support while the main units continue the advances over the next few months.
In short, Russia can “take” all of Ukraine with the forces they have now or with a relatively minor increase – if they do it intelligently, which I have no doubt they will. It’s purely a matter of operational art.
So in order to prove your point you had to redefine the term occupation (thereby creating a strawman)
Then you make crazy assumptions, like major cities only occupied by civilians.
And, of course, you conveniently ignore such minor issues as supply lines or law and order (for which Russia will be responsible in any areas she will take).
None of that is even remotely linked to operational art.
I did not redefine the term. I said “control” instead of “occupation”, which is quite different from the usual interpretation of occupation, as I outlined. The point is most people of occupation as placing troops all over the country and strictly controlling every aspect of the country and its population. In fact, the laws of occupation require just that. Whereas “control” merely means being able to prevent any effort to reassert the defeated country’s authority anywhere in the country or the defeated country’s authority from interfering in the conquering military’s actions. In other words, there is a spectrum of control which requires more or less forces to achieve.
Neither did I assume major cities without military support. I said IF a city had no military support, the civilians, no matter how large the population, would not be an issue for a sufficiently large fully equipped military force which concentrates its efforts rather than sprawling all over the place. Once the Ukrainian regime is forced to surrender, if they do, and all their forces lay down arms, if that happens, there is nothing to prevent a 200,000 strong Russian force from entering Kiev and controlling it.
If Ukraine does not surrender, and whatever forces remain in and around Kiev continue to resist, unless those forces have some ability no in evidence to force said Russian force to withdraw, taking Kiev will only be a matter of the usual Syrian methods: surround and cut off, reconnaissance attacks to locate centers of resistance, weakening attacks to eliminate resistance, then wait for the collapse. With no other Ukrainian forces involved, the end result is inevitable and will require no serious increase in manpower – depending on how many Ukrainian forces are actually involved, which was the point – that the number of forces involved is more important than the size of the city or population.
Standard doctrine may say you need so many troops per square mile or whatever, but that depends on the quality and quantity of the opposing force. As Brian Berletic notes in one of his recent videos, numerical superiority is qualified by whether one has the necessary artillery, armor and air power. After the rest of Ukraine’s military is annihilated, I doubt whatever forces remain in Kiev will be able to hold out against the full allied forces.
It might have been a smart move for Ukraine to pull all of its forces early back to Kiev and surround it with heavily fortified defenses. But they didn’t and they probably won’t. So once the east, south and central Ukraine are dealt with, I don’t see Kiev standing for long. And I don’t see Russia needing half a million men to do it.
Supply lines will sort themselves out once Russia has eliminated the Ukrainian forces between the east and Kiev, obviously. If there are no Ukrainian forces in the rear to interdict supply lines, Russia need not worry about them. If you assume some sort of “insurgency”, well, there are ways to insure security of supply trains and truck convoys, certainly well enough to insure logistics works for the duration of the control phase.
As for “law and order”, that is only Russia’s problem if they assume that responsibility. They could also organize local authorities as they have been doing in the east so far to handle that. The units which secure the local government buildings in each oblast can also help with that. In the end, it’s up to the Ukrainian citizens themselves to take responsibility for law and order. Presumably there will be local police still in existence in towns all over the country and as long as they cooperate with the Russian presence, the Russians will be happy to let them handle any criminal elements and provide some aid on call as necessary. None of this requires a Russian soldier on every street corner.
Also, once Ukraine’s military forces are eliminated from a region, Russia can send non-military forces into the controlled areas of Ukraine to handle reconstruction, law enforcement, etc. These do not require a large commitment of military forces. Military forces are not suited for such activities in any event. Russia has shown so far that it is willing to send massive amounts of assistance to Ukraine. Therefore such things are not relevant to the number of military forces involved in the operation. I would, however, expect a fair number of Russian law enforcement – GRU, SVR, FSB – units to be deployed to the liberated areas. But these are not full-blown military units.
All this is part of operational art because it’s part of handling the aftermath of a war. Operational art, as Martyanov has pointed out, includes all aspects of war that involved, as Clausewitz said, “compelling the enemy to do our will.” That requires all the efforts of planning and execution involved in operational art.
So my point stands: Russia can take all of Ukraine with the forces they have so far committed or with a slight increase. If they need more, to make it easier or quicker, they will commit more.
By “take” I mean the destruction of Ukraine’s military forces and the removal of the regime including local regime leaders in each oblast and the control of local oblast government and other strategic assets. The rest of Ukraine can be left to their own devices or Russian non-military assistance until a new regime has been installed and propagated across the country.
100% correct IMHO.
I’d like emphasize your point that time is on Russia’s side. There seems to have been a clear decision by Russia that a prolonged SMO is the best case scenario for achieving their primary geopolitical goal of multipolarity.
Complete video/text in English of Putin’s speech in Vladivostok today.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69299
thank you!
“Some have suggested that this is bad tactic since it gives Kiev a good PSYOP/PR opportunity”.
One of the few people I “despise” in this life is people who believe in the power of psyop/propaganda (lies).
In favour of fiction over reality.
Sure it creates confusion, politicians gives you money, you deceive many, you and we hope, we are dragging time, we are selling more, but when push comes to shove it always crashes ugly when it meets reality, so why waste time on it when the value of true efforts is so much more delicious and beneficial.
Thats why we have pleasure in hearing such people like Lavrov, Putin and Zakharova (and Saker).
For some reason Saker’s description of the Russian defence reminds me about Cassius Clay and George Foreman’s fight.
Pushing pulling back pulling back, pushing pulling back pulling back, pushing pulling back pulling back, and when Foreman was warmed up, blinded by hate and anger, the knock out came out of the blue.
We never left nor will leave you Ali.
AFU is still puling up forces and reserves to Andreevka. Military Summary is predicting a mass tank attack against Shevchenkove. It’s plausible given the number of tank brigades the AFU has concentrated in the Balaklaya-Izyum direction, but the prediction is that it is a suicide mission.
Right now there are only about 3 BTG engaged.
Will there be tank brigades tomorrow?
‘ frankly, I am sick and tired of repeating the same truisms over and over and over again,’
Gosh not every day the Saker personally addresses me! But seriously Andrei fortunately your influence has expanded beyond preaching to the choir.
As more half awake folks come here to see what all the fuss is about, It is inevitable that they will regress and spew the endless nonsense, regularly jammed down their throats.
Perhaps you could have a list of Saker sage. Numbered short summaries of your most oft repeated wisdom. Then just number the offending posts errors rather than personally addressing, case by case. Perhaps add a bit of color so the choir doesn’t necessarily even have to read the half baked misnomers. I would prioritize them from most offensive to lesser.
It’s similar to the challenge facing the SMO. They have lined up in Ukraine, masses of people who have been subjected to intense psychological ops. Russia could mow them down or do things that will convince them they are on their side. Just cuz someone writes something naïve or uninformed does not mean they are beyond redemption, didn’t Christ say something along those lines.
While you are educating in such a way, you might also consider rewarding a star to posts you particularly appreciate. I have always appreciated the way you share your very human challenges with your admirers. It makes you very real in a world of parrots.
Generally good and indeed basic, apart from the mandatory gratuitous denigration of US military history demanded by Russian Exceptionalism. The contemporary Empire doesn’t fight real wars. It prefers to fight proxy wars–Ukraine being the latest and greatest–and hybrid wars: lies, subversion, sanctions, use of co-opted elites, and color revolutions. This is not stupid. It’s been standard procedure in the Anglosphere for centuries. And it has worked quite well. In fact The Empire’s economic pressure and systematic deception brought down the Soviet Union (yes I know it’s complicated…) and has emasculated every major competitor for decades. This is how The Empire works. It has no interest in fighting or winning major wars on the steppes of Europe–or anywhere else for that matter. And of course the Empire isn’t run by Biden and Harris, it’s run by bankers and corporate holding companies. The obsession with the minutiae of military operations is blinding, not enlightening. Of course Russia will win militarily in Ukraine. This is certainly not unexpected by US decision makers. The Big Picture–who benefits? American corporations–defense, energy and agriculture (thank you Michael Hudson). These elites have no interest in and no serious knowledge of history or even the contours of culture. They are driven by the need to control, destroy their competition (that is Germany and China–Russia is an insignificant economic competitor though an important source of raw materials) and ultimately to reap profits–the mainspring of capitalism.
apart from the mandatory gratuitous denigration of US military history demanded by Russian Exceptionalism.
Just kindly buzz off and don’t come back, ok?
“Generally good and indeed basic, apart from the mandatory gratuitous denigration of US military history demanded by Russian Exceptionalism.”
I had a Russian cousin who fought against the American air force in Vietnam. He was a so-called “advisor” to the North Vietnamese troops. He’s no longer living, but his publications are out there on Russian Internet.
After the war, this cousin of mine had very high praise for American military prowess. He said US battle efficiency, technology, and training were so exceptional that they even dwarfed the Wehrmacht’s WW2 abilities, which – as we all know – were legendary.
Of course, my late cousin also had high praise for his North Vietnamese pupils. But even so, he is on record as stating that the US military is something else altogether.
(Removed attack on fellow poster that violates the blog rules,MOD)
“… he is on record as stating that the US military is something else altogether”.
Was, not is (if it ever was and that is very debatable). As in no longer. But it is something else.
@Dick Lenning
Handful is not equal 10000. It is constantly repeated that Ukraine has 42 or so millions people available for war against Russia.
Half of that number is Russian speaking, and they voted for end of hostility, by choosing Zelenski because of his (broken) promises.
What we see of Ukraine is PR extravaganza by western spin masters, not the real situation. Any opposition is crushed, media forbidden. Long before SMO. Why? Because of fact that half of Ukraine wasn’t happy with western installed Junta. They are run to the ground by combined force of western surveillance and Ukronazi brutality.
By eliminating Ukronazi factor from the equation, repressed part of population will be able to emerge in numbers. Enough to cleanse society of all Nazi remnants. In time. It doesn’t have to be Hi-tech. They know them all. Personally.
If Ukraine is not divided society, that scenario wouldn’t be possible. But it is. Any guerilla will be easily detected, infiltrated and destroyed from within. There will be terrorist acts in the beginning, soon that will wane in frequency and intensity. Much faster than Iraq insurgency, for example.
On wider scale, none of world conflicts that I know of, produced full spectrum crisis in the West, as this one. That doesn’t help insurgency in Ukraine at all.
My worries are that after Ukraine is “depleted” Western warmongers will rinse and repeat scenario with Poland + 3 Baltic midgets in leading roles. Until Germany is sufficiently armed. Alas, economic crisis hinders that part of The_Plan too.
Nobody knows for sure, but the Ukrainian population might well already be under 30M.
“Until Germany is sufficiently armed. ..”
If it’s any consolation, amongst a broad base of information I found, a pledge arose out of Germany. That sharing her secrets will be no more to the detriment of mankind.
Of all places – a world renowned cutlery (knife) manufacturer Henk…el, and formerly of superior bearing steel.
“Never again..”
Pepe Escobar has a very informative article on Strategic Culture which attributes stratospheric gas prices to the financial shenanigans of a Dutch Government owned Company (TTG) which speculates in the market and drives gas prices up in Europe.
It is the EU that is responsible for linking European Electricity prices to gas prices.
Politicians (particularly Greens) and big finance are the villains, not Putin.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/09/07/germany-energy-suicide-autopsy/
This was a good explanation, Andrei. Thanks a lot.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Do you think Western intelligence and strategists don’t know how Russia fights?
Contrary to popular belief the West has some very capable minds…its just the media shows us the self-prompters and braggarts.
Who has achieved their goals so far of provoking Russia, stopping Nord-Stream and now bogging Russian military down in Ukraine.
The “elite” of Russia is at war against the one-percentage Western “elite” who would put their own boots on ground if needed …because they don’t care about anyone but themselves and agenda, they’re criminals.
The goal of the Western “elite” is to seize control of Russian raw materials…to do so they have to get rid of Putin, you do that by turning Russian minds like was done in Ukraine…you then have done what no army can do and you can rape and pillage as you please.
You have to take-out a few of these “elite” to get them to back off!
One thing that I don’t think you touched upon is that when Ukraine counter attacks it leaves the cover of the human shields and the shelter of schools and shopping centers. Russia can hit them as hard as they want in the open fields.
Not only that. But the further the Ukrainian forces enter into Russian controlled territory, the less artillery support they can get and the more artillery support the Russians get.
Tonight there are plenty of reports of lots of TOS-1A Solntsepyok being deployed towards the Ukrainian advance.
Tomorrow will be a bad day for either the Ukraine or Russia.
My bet is that the offensive will collapse, but I will wait until Friday to comment (there is SO MUCH fake news out there that it is very hard to come across good info, and that takes time).
Cheers
It would be good to get some of the remaining HIMARS into that trap. The mig25 and the ka52 would be on standby for that purpose. The Ukies or the American(maybe) crews running the HIMARS might be too cagey for today.
Andrei,
How sensible!
Should one ask: ‘how do I cope with a well-ordered enemy host about to attack me?’ I reply: seize something he cherishes and he will conform to your desires. – Sun Tzu
The neocons wanted to draw Russia into a war. Now Russia is drawing their money and weapons into a black hole. It reminds me of the Falkenhayn strategy at Verdun, surround an important salient with guns and let the French get macerated trying to hold it.
Let’s wait a 48-72 period that is a luxury that us sitting by our computers have.
As Andrei Martyanov said, look at the scale of the map. The ukro “offensive” is a couple of clicks in a 1,200 km front, not even 1%.
Thank you! I know Scott Ritter has become he who should not be named on this blog, but I hope that’ situation is temporary. As honestly, that’s a shame, because you are all doing excellent work. Anyhow, Ritter has started a show where he speaks with Russian experts. The last interview was brilliant, with Alexander Khodakovsky,, the commander of the DPR Vostok Battalion. Alexander Khodakovsky, is a living hero and has a commanding presence and analysis. He has been 8 years on the front line in Donbass, was there during the coup in 2014 as part of Ukraine security forces, and took part in battle in Mariupol.
Khodakovsky, backs up all you say here, but points out that after 5 months of offensive manoeuvers, the military operations of the allied forces are now in a planned pause. He said that it’s clear that this would be the moment for Ukraine to push back. But exactly as you say, the allies were prepared for this and are conducting defense while in this phase of the conflict. He said that the pause however will soon be coming to an end, and the allied forces, refreshed and replenished, will soon enter a new offensive phase of combat.
I am reminded of the historical lore of american colonists resisting the British Redcoats in the War of Independence. They faced the attack until the time came and then retreated into the forests that they knew well and waited for the redcoats to come after them, in formation even, and then gunned them down.
Grunt (Ukr or Rus): Big attack about to overwhelm our positions. What do we do?
Ukraine Command: Hold your position. If you retreat we’ll shoot you.
Russian Command: Fall back and when they run out of fuel, we’ll counter attack.
Hmmm. I wonder which army I want to be in? Tough call LOL.
Saker. When only the best will do. Thanks Andrei. If the proles don’t get it after this one, then it is hopeless that they ever will. You guys, Martyanov and Larry and Escobar and others have gotten me to the point of vomiting when I hear the lies of the combined West. We live in interesting times, no?
It makes so much sense,
Nicely done, thank you
If the Allied advances seem “too slow” now, remember that they appeared much “too fast” only ~5mos ago.
My view is that the Russian “Deep State” that didn’t quite surface when they put Putin in power has been gaming this out since the mid-90s. If it appears that the West “has no Plan B”, the Russians have Plans “A” thru “Я” across the socio-political, geo-political, financial, economic, diplomatic and military domains. They’ve nuanced and polished these plans and, more importantly integrated them into a Grand Strategy wherein they complement each other – developments in one domain are leveraged across the others.
They’ve been adjusting and working that grand plan for 2 decades. The SMO that apparently began on Feb 24, 2022 simply served to bring all that work into sharp relief. What had appeared as a loose, but growing collection of unconnected dots suddenly connected and a formidable picture emerged. Russian power was revealed as a fait accompli on a global scale.
That’s what’s got the West’s knickers in a twist. Its owners believed they were the Great Planners and that they had the whole world skipping merrily down the Yellow Brick Road to the Great Reset.
The Great Reset is, of course, nothing more than a plan to “correct” the strategic blunders they’d made over the last over the last couple of centuries while leaving them in their position, if not enhancing it. This is ahistorical delusion. Systems have reset many times in world history. Never have the elites running the old system survived to run the new one.
So, when looking at “how fast” or “how slow” the SMO is going, remember that it’s going as fast or as slow as it needs to, lest it fall behind/outrun developments across the other, equally important domains.
Good read and on point. However, here’s my beef or rather concern with “time”…
Nazis aka NATerroristO are getting gradually involved in the conflict, because we know they don’t like to lose, and especially, they get to kill “as many Russians as possible”, which they dream about, and they got the same “time”, to expand. And I don’t buy BS that armies of 20+ countries are getting depleted.
I know, they’re shitting their pants on thought of hypersonics, still the “anointed ones” will be safe, so they think.
Though, I hope they are aware of V.V. stance on a possible mass murder of Russian life…
hence the faster ukro-nazis are dispatched to their overlord, lots of stuff can be avoided…time is kind of a toss.
These aren’t US battle plans being rolled out by the Ukrainians. These are British Empire strategies, which haven’t changed at all since colonial days. Strategy is simple, and in their mind kills two birds with one stone. They send massive waves of undesirables to force the enemy to waste ammunition and solves the problem of the undesirables.
Ukrainians are the new undesirables but otherwise nothing has really changed.
Occasionally these will be distraction attacks, but often just forcing two sides to fight each other while the inbred lords cheer. Yanks for all their failings at least understand the value of a well trained soldier.
Russia will have long memories of this skirmish, and the favour will be returned, perhaps with interest!
With that context in mind, here again is the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer Bill LaPlante describing very matter-of-factly at Wednesday’s defense conference in Washington D.C.:
“We got them off the ship, put them on some flatbed trucks, put the Harpoons, the modules on the flatbed truck, and then a different flatbed truck for the power source, connected a cable between it, figured out was exportable, brought the Ukrainians to train on it over Memorial Day weekend, in our country, over Memorial Day weekend, and the next week two Russian ships were sunk with those Harpoons,” he said.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-admits-us-behind-ukraine-forces-sinking-russian-warships-training-happening
Dear Saker,
with all the respect to your excellent knowledge of history (including military one), your impressive analytical skill, this analysis you wrote is not logical in couple of main points, see my bullets:
– firepower and maneuver was a doctrine of Nazis during 2. world war (very usefull in Donbas or Russian steppe for sure) and they were stopped by the red army not because of better equipment or training, but because of the much bigger numbers in manpower and a possibility to replenish huge loses quickly. Yes the red army won, so we could all enjoy freedom decades after, but the price was a huge one. Even 77 years after, the ratio men to women in Russia and especially in Belarus is worse than in any other country in Europe. Now the Russian army is much better then the red army was then, but going out with 1:3 on an enemy that has a big advantage in numbers (the largest European army that has been trained and transformed in last 8 years by the combined west) and is constantly being replenished could be a good try in first couple of months, but not now when the first shock is over… Even if Ukraine lost around 200 k soldiers in half a year (more realistic is 500-600/day times 180 days is around 90-110 k), they have at least 500 k more currently, with a potential to conscript some half a million more. Simple math will tell you that this is enough for additional at least 12 months of fighting at the same level they were until today…
– Using primarily lower trained and equipped LDNR militias (and to some extent ros guardia – better armed police) to do boots on the terrain is dubious, too. They can be better than ukronazis, but are again in low numbers (maybe altogether up to 120 k soldiers). If you came to save someone, than it is not enough to give firepower (artillery and planes and rockets), but give your ground forces, too. Thus only DNR official losses are more than 12 k soldiers out of action (around 4 k dead) in the last 6 months only. this is 20% loses ratio, much bigger to what Ukraine is loosing. So where is the logic there. You come to save and do not join the hot boots on the ground??? And you actually loose so many people you came to protect?
– Similar goes to all the settlements allied forces are forced to retreat from. They are devastated by ukie artillery. Belakleya is an obvious one. Not only a lot of good soldiers die there, but the settlement is totally ruined by ukie artillery. And if we remember Bucha masacre – most of the civilian people were executed by ukronazis when Russian army retreated. Same can be expected now… Is this called a protection of civilians and their civil infrastructure? Not logical to me…
– To add to the upper bullet. Everything leading to an attack on Belakleya was evident for weeks. Ukies were concentrating troops for weeks (not days), they even intensified shelling for two weeks not a day or two, but this area of the front was left poorly defended. Even when the attack started, some of the forces retreated and some were left in the town, quickly cut-off from a possible safe retreat. Ukie air defense was not destroyed around Kharkow (misuse of reconnaissance groups in infantry operations instead of identifying positions of air defense and their suppression) so no intensive air support possible. No reserve available to jump in… No real artillery support. To me this looks like a very bad intelligence and coordination (or underestimation). And ukies only used around 10 k soldiers in this offensive – which is much more than a battalion group (so yes they can coordinate more than a battalion group, especially with foreign intelligence and command). And no sign that after 36 h Russians are doing anything serious to take an initiative there thus endangering their forces in Izyum area… Ukies like captured around 10 settlements in 24 h and will capture Balakleya itself, too… Doing Vostok wargames for sure will not solve the problem… This is a repeating scenario, like when top civil and military leadership are occupied with something, the offensive starts (can someone learn something from such attacks from not so distant past???) And think for those soldiers that are being encircled in Balakeya or caught bu ukronazis… Do they deserve such a fate?
– poor intelligence, poor coordination and corruption (and possible betrayal) is also a part of Russian armed forces, not only western ones. Russia is also a capitalistic state and base of this system is a (systemic) corruption. This brought to the sinking of cruiser Moskwa – a symbolic target because of its name and being a leading ship of the black fleet. But also a powerful air defense vessel. There is no similar vessel with such a capable air defense in the Black fleet left… While the ship was hit with most probably two missiles its radars and air defense turned off. On a wartime mission… If this is not incompetence (or betrayal), than I don’t understand what an incompetence is…
– similar as with the cruiser happened with many planes and heavy equipment of allied forces in the first month of SMO, primary to Russian equipment with their quick marches in the enemy depth. Incompetence and especially wrong intelligence was demonstrated sending unguarded supply convoys and heavy equipment. Thus huge loses at the beginning of the operation. Remember a march to Gostomel to support a well executed air assault there. Yes Russian armed forces adapted, but lost more than 4 k soldiers and good part of (modern) equipment, too in the first two months. Similar is going on with constant shelling of ukie terror forces all over the Donbas and liberated areas in the south and thus destroying a lot of civilian infrastructure an killing civilians. If ukies with their western sponsors manage to damage(destroy) Crimean bridge or God forbid nuclear plant in Kherson, what will you call this afterwards? Another insignificant military gain of nazis? A PR move? Was an assault on an airport in Crimea that destroyed some 6-8 airplanes and damaged some of its infrastructure there a symbolic action? Or hitting different refineries on Russian lands also a PR move?
– Russia does not have a lot of time for this operation. Contrary. Ukies attacks are becoming more daring with their attacks. They are also defending fiercely. They are not easily beaten. They are generally good soldiers. And they have a huge financial and material support (Russian alone cannot compete long term with the combined west, even if this west is in troubles, it is still much bigger in production and financial potentia). Many foreign intelligence agencies are helping them with real time intelligence data, including sending their well trained soldiers (not only instructors), too. Behind them are assets of USA and rest of NATO, which is still a superpower, although in a decline. Do not make a mistake and underestimate your enemy. This is a basic (beginner’s) mistake. Especially a wounded one shouldn’t be underestimated, that has no other option (either killed by his own nazi regime or in the war), so can be a hell of a match. If Russia will continue to leave the empire to damage and humiliate her, middle to long term there will be less and less supporters (not to mention allies) and bigger problems.
I am totally for Russian in this SMO, although I am against wars in generally. My home country Yugoslavia was destroyed by the same NATO nazis 30 years ago. I was a teenager back then, but still remember all the bad things we had to go through. I understand that Russia is fighting an existential battle with the combined west, but if it is an existential one than it should be fought with more force and resolution. Otherwise after months of positional battles and stalemate on front lines, your army and people loose the desire to fight. They want to return home. To live a peaceful life. As the empire still has lots of capacities then they can engage their own fully rested forces and make big problems – huge casualties for both sides (most probably Russia winning conventionally with huge at least manpower loses again) and possible use of nukes, the destruction of most of us…
I think we should all be more realistic and not optimistic as an optimism can in similar situations mean lack of experience or lying to our self (while pointing finger to the other side of doing the same). Both can bring catastrophic consequences. I remember all the brave statements coming from you Saker about how Russia would crush ukies in about a week time if there was some intervention. Yes could be true if it happened in 2014, but sure not true in 2022. That’s why Russian armed forces had to change strategy at least couple of times and most probably they will have to do it again – using much more resolution and much bigger force to end this nazi regime in what used to be Ukraine once and for all. Further if there is enough power and stamina also in the European part of our Eurasia.
All the best to you!
What if Russia isn’t fighting a “war”? What if its military actions in UA are more accurately seen as a complement to what they’re doing elsewhere? Maybe it serves primarily as a catalyst – or its opposite, a diversion – for events and plans unfolding on the SCO/EEU/BRICS/ASEAN/etc etc fronts?
What is known for sure is that had the Kremlin decided to blow the Ze regime out of Kiev and “de-Nazify” UA by levelling Lvov (etc), it could’ve planned for that and done it. In the event, it decided on something completely different, and the answer to the question “Why?” is slowly coming to light.
E.G.: >150 countries condemned RU’s invasion in March, but only ~50 agreed to sign a statement condemning the invasion in August. IOW, 2/3s of the original signatories, 100 nations had gone neutral, and in many cases favourable in in the intervening 6 mos. Had RU already “won” in March, it would’ve forfeited the support of the world, who needed the time to absorb and balance the pros & cons of the shift RU’s SMO catalysed and come to a decision on where they stood. In many, many cases they came to their decisions having had to overturn their long held understandings and beliefs. No small matter when we’re talking about nations.
I believe that the point will soon come when RU feels confident that the shift has reached critical mass and become unstoppable. They will then prepare and wait for the inevitable casus beli to come along and allow them to declare war. By then, UA will be defenceless and the rest of the West in chaotic socio-political meltdown. Look for a variant on Crimea Gambit of 2014.
Those who refuse to learn from history are doom to repeat it.
Napoleon invasion is a good lesson.
Thank you Sir for the detailed explanation, Living in the West it is easy to start to believe that all is lost for Russia in this war or SMO. It makes much more sense when viewing it as akin to a naval battle rather than trench warfare of WW1. Thanks!
AFU is no joke. Still, Russia might well crush them if it went all out, but that would mean even more death and destruction. That would terrify and unite Europe against Russia. As the article says, Russia would be over-extended occupying hostile territory, which would play into the Western plan to exhaust and weaken Russia. So the Russians sent a limited expeditionary force to liberate a territory amenable to join Russia. Meanwhile, Russia hardly bothers to push back against the Western information war that paints it as inept. Frankly, it may help the Russians. It lessens the perception of Russia as a threat to Europe, and it inspires the Ukrainians to march right into the trap. As Sun Tzu said: Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
The Russians pretty much hold the line , Kiev’s forces attack and are being annihilated, they keep sending in more troops who’s fate will be the same . Putin doesn’t need to make territorial advances , slowly but surely, the mission is being accomplished. Using these tactics there should be fewer citizens killed and less rebuilding to do in Ukraine when it’s all over. Makes perfect sense.
Exactly. And while the west busies itself attending drama classes (or press interviews…), vogue commercials, and practicing money mismanagement, Russia is busy “getting ‘er done.”
Excellent exposition, Andrei. One question: I know who the “brain-dead old man” is, but who is “the former call-girl”?
Andrei explained it in a comment above.
Brilliant analysis Andrei, I thoroughly enjoy reading your articles, I can even hear your accent as I am reading.
Saker….I was thinking as to why the leaders of Nato would still keep throwing immense amounts of Ukraine soldiers into the Russian meat grinder even though Nato leadership knows it is a lost cause. Do you think they know that once Russia wins out…they dont want this Ukraine manpower to possibly become an asset for any Russian friendly Ukrainian military down the line? Yes I understand hardcore Nazi types will prob be killed or imprisoned before that time but Im sure there are still Ukraine soldiers who only fight Russians out of fear of being killed by the nazi idiots who are still running the ukraine military.
absolute expert….thanks Andrei for your detailed explanations for the non expert like me….your article is distributed to the needy of knowledge and wisdom