There is the facade: organization like NATO, or the British Commonwealth, or the Arab League. And then there are the real alliances, the ones that matter when things get tough, when important decisions need to be made. Some of them are centered around a common project, such as the ECHELON countries, while others have almost no visible existence. As usual, these are less conspiracies than collusions. These alliances are informal, they can fluctuate and they can often involve countries which, at least in public, are often opposed to each other.
For years I have had my own list of truly dangerous countries, countries whose governments represent the biggest threat to international security and peace, and I have always tried to keep track of their behind-the-scenes actions. Here is my personal list of ‘rogue states’, in ‘order of toxicity’, if you wish:
1) Israel
2) Turkey
3) Pakistan
4) Saudi Arabia
I call them “the gang of four” (a tongue-in-cheek reference to another “gang of four” in China)
The US itself, which is mostly the unwitting (if powerful) puppet in the hands of these countries is really in a category of its own and should be included in this list more as the “conference room” and as a “relay” of the other four than as an actor in its own right (at least as long as the Neocons, having being successful in hijacking American sovereignty, remain in complete command of the USA).
Two countries of the Gang of Four, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, are undergoing an internal political crisis triggered by the deep disconnect there is between the ruling elites (prostitutes of the Empire) and not only their public opinion but even a good chunk of the elites themselves. This is not unlike what is now also taking place in Egypt.
Israel and Turkey are thus the most formidable ones among the others and they are the leaders of the gang; if there is a true ‘axis of evil’ is certainly the one linking Jerusalem to Ankara.
There are, of course, major differences between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. For one thing, only the Musharraf regime is truly on the verge of a total collapse and Pakistan itself, as a country, is in danger to fall apart into separate entities (one could even make the case that this has already happened). I observe no such thing in Saudi Arabia.
There have been some interesting moves by some Gang members recently.
Last week, it was Turks meeting with the Israelis, primarily to bolster intelligence cooperation. This week, Haaretz broke the story of a secret Barak-Musharraf meeting in Paris. Looks like three out of four Gang members are getting busy. All we need now is a meeting between any one of these three and the Saudis or their numerous trusted middlemen from the business world.
What could these consultations be all about? The Empire is certainly falling apart in many places: Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, South America, Lebanon, Russia, China – all slowly but inexorably slipping away from the imperial control. A huge, financial and economic crisis is looming and there is no foreseeable sign of a recovery, at least not for the USA. As the USA is becoming more and more disoriented from the multiple crises resulting from 8 years of Neocon rule, I expect the Gang of Four to become more and more active.
While it will be hard for us to know what they are up to, we will probably notice and increase of ‘chatter’ among the Gang members, in particular if Musharraf or Mubarak are violently thrown out of power at which point panic will set in and the remaining gang members will scramble for safety by cracking down on their internal and external enemies.
I ask all of you, my friends and readers, to please keep me informed (by email) if you come across any information about any activity, no matter how apparently small or routine, involving two or more of these Gang members.
The latest Sibel Edmonds piece:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3257725.ece
Sibel’s recent articles certainly point to collusion between Turkey, Pakistan, and Israel(and the US of course.)
Good analysis of article on Mizgin’s blog.
http://rastibini.blogspot.com/
yes, I saw that piece and right after that I saw the Haaretz piece, which gave me the idea of publishing a formal request for comments/info on the ‘Gang of Four’
and Mizgin is quite fantastic, of course, I read her blog daily. I wish I could read the Kurdish language blogs as I am sure that they are a great source of excellent info.
if this keeps up, you’ll have to be adding Lebanon to that list. something’s rotten in Beirut –
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/fisk/beiruts-assassins-kill-the-detective-on-their-trail-774306.html
well, see if this works?
I really have no idea who is behind these murders, although my suspicions go towards either Al-Qaeda or Israel who both have a huge stake into de-stabilizing Lebanon. However, I am not including Lebanon in my Gang of Four (or, in this case, Five) because I do not believe that 1) the ruling regime in Lebanon has much influence and 2) because Lebanon, as a country, is nowhere near as capable of mischief as my Gang of Four.
I agree with you regarding KSA and Pakistan (their extremist leaders and extremist minority) being a huge global problem.
But I am puzzled by the extent of your criticism of Israel. Israel has long had close relations with Yugoslavia, Serbia and other Eastern Orthodox East Europeans excluding Greece (which hates Israel because of Isreal’s alliance with Turkey.) Israel quietly supported Serbia in the 1990s, with weapons shipments to the Serbs leading up to 1995 and 1999. Israel sympathized with Serbia’s struggle against Jihadis. Most Serbs to my knowledge sympathize with Israel’s struggle. Israel has kept its support for the Serbs low key because of their ally Turkey’s support for the ethnic Albanian muslims of Kosovo, and Bosnian muslims.
Israel is at war with Takfiri just like eastern European eastern orthodox are.
I know you don’t like the Ottomans. But is Israel’s alliance with the Ottomans and its enmity with the Shia in Lebanon so significant a factor that you are willing to ignore the many things you agree with Israel on? Note that originally Israel entered Lebanon as an ally of the Shia against the Palestinians and Sunni Arabs. The dust up between Israel and the Lebanese Shia happened later.
Israel was the only significant country in the world which supported Iran against Saddam between 1980-88.
Another issue that has always puzzled me is why Greeks and other Eastern Orthodox Eastern Europeans are not more pro-Kurdish. Kurds are the foes of the Turks. So why don’t they support the Kurds, including Barzani and Talabani? Why didn’t they support Barzani and Talibani in their struggle against Saddam, and in their struggle inside Iraq today? Why aren’t they all supporting Kurdish interests inside Iraq?
Why isn’t there more sympathy for the GoI (being Shia and Kurdish led) among East European Eastern Orthodox?
I have great difficulty understanding a lot of Mizgin’s comments. For example see: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2008/01/gaza-empire-strikes-back-and-risks.html
“I am just as opposed to “free” markets as I am to democracy because the only thing that “free” market means is that the resources of a people are FREE for high-paid thugs to STEAL, thus enriching themselves and exploiting occupied peoples.”
Why oppose freedom and democracy? Why can’t voters chose their own leaders? If it is okay for most people around the world (Brazil, Indonesia, America etc.) to live in free democratic countries, why can’t Arabs also get to live in free democratic countries?
And why oppose free market globalization. Free markets have facilitated over a billion poor people in Asia working their way out of extreme poverty. What is wrong with free market globalization? Why would anyone want to keep Asians and the rest of the world down?
American taxpayers giving Egypt (and their harsh dictators indirectly) $2.5 billion a year in grants means $2.5 billion a year in additional taxes and reduced government spending on other priorities. What American profits from this? Egypt gets this money as a legacy of the 1979 Camp David accords (and being nice to the Jews). What is in it for America? I am asking as an American.
“Israel entered Lebanon”
Only as inane an apologist for Israel as anand could describe an invading army as ‘entering’ a country.
Anand, once and for all, how old are you?
No offense, but you almost sound like a 16 or 17 year old American Rush Limbaugh
fan.
A group piece on the latest Sibel article:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19196.htm
anand
I can answer your question why Arabs cant live in Democracy
–
If Arabs are given the choice ALL those Pro US and Pro israel will be dropped like an old kleenex and people will chose the Islamists (not al qaeeda but islamic parties who put their people first before US interests )
America talks about democracy it is BULL it does not mean it . the Elections are fake and America does not mind as long as those dictators , America calls Friends and ALLIES stay in power . america stands by them and Arms them and even Sells them torture tools . if someone puts his people s interests first , he is GONE ! like Patrice Lumumba, Like Allende in Chile , like General Mossadeq in Iran like General qassim so that dictators who are PRO US can replace them (like Pinochet , Mobutu, Saddam Hussein et..)
AMerica NO Longer talks abotu democracy and elections in the Arab world because they FULLY Know that the Muslim brotherhood will replace King Mohamed 6 ,King Abudullah of Jordan , and Husni Mubarak . and America s intersts would be at stake .
Please check the site of friendly dictators , that will give you plenty of INFO .
ALL the Crimes in Lebanon are the work of the smart intelligent MOSSAD who is all over Lebanon with different jobs , and passeports . they speak french , Arabic , they have all sorts of jobs and the Lebanese have No idea they are right there under their nose laughing at them . they choose the Anti syrian Leaders to cause harm to Syria , the bastards because they want to destroy Syria as Planned by richard Perle in Clean Break
Link
Here, dear Fatima, I have to strongly disagree with you: the Mossad are anything but “smart intelligent”. What they really are is phenomenally incompetent. Look at how Israel has pushed teh US to invade Iraq only to discover to its great surprise what any idiot in the region knew: that Saddam was the single most dangerous enemy of Iran and that once he would be ousted the Shia would own Iraq.
How about the 2006 war against Hezbollah? Can you think of any most pathetic defeat? Was the defeat a surprise for anyone? Of course not – it was clear to all, besides the USA and Israel, that the IDF would not achieve any of its goals.
And then there are all the screwed up assassination attempts of the Mossad gang that could not shoot straight: Kidon. And the SNAFU with AIPAC in the USA, and the idiocy of backing Chalabi even though he was an agent of the Iranians, etc. etc. etc.
I won’t even go into the total FUBARing of the Hamas and Gaza issues.
No Fatima, the Mossad are definitely arrogant, utterly immoral and quite stupid indeed. As I wrote in a previous post, ‘chutzpah’ is not intelligence, not by a long shot.
Now, I am not denying that the Mossad, and the other Israeli services, are active and toxic in the region in general and in Lebanon in particular. They are, in fact, in second position in my list of suspects of the bombings in Lebanon (#1 is the local franchise of Al-Qaeda). But being responsible for a lot of bad things does not make you smart, only evil.
You show me one single example of Mossad intelligence/smartness and I am willing to reconsider. But so far all I see is a pattern of incompetence and stupidity.
“No Fatima, the Mossad are definitely arrogant, utterly immoral and quite stupid indeed.”
I agree 100%. In fact, I’ve been saying as long as I can remember that not only the Israeli intelligence, but also the Israeli army, are massively overated and rely on decades-old mythology for their PR. Focussing on intelligence alone, the blunders of the past few years are both consistent and stunning: the failure to predict the election of Hamas, as well as their subsequent ‘take-over’ of Gaza; the fall of the wall; the inability to find the French tank gunner; the fact that they did not know the extent of Hizballah’s arsenal, just a few miles over their border; the comically inept attempt to kill Khaled Mishal (in the capial of a friendly state) with a mobile phone…. imperial hubris indeed.
I also firmly believe that the Arab willingness to go along with the myth of Israeli invincibility is one of the factors behind their ineffectiveness in countering Israel. There are, however, signs, that the Arabs are finally beginning to wak up to Israeli incompetence.
Anonymous, once and for all, how old are you?
No offense, but you almost sound like a 16 or 17 year old American Rush Limbaugh
fan.
I would urge you to reconsider your support for Rush Limbaugh and support the real thing, Brazilian President Lula. President Lula is:
1) much more pro-corporate, pro-business, pro-free market, pro-deregulation
2) much more pro smaller government, and less socialist (Brazil has far lower taxes and spending as a percentage of GDP than big government borderline socialist America)
3) much more loved on Wall Street.
4) much more pro-globalization and less nativist
5) Brazil has recently begun growing faster than America.
President Lula is a true globalization champion, and leader of empire. Many large companies are moving operations to Brazil to take advantage of Brazil’s prosperity and pro-business atmosphere.
The man who comes closest to Pres Lula in America, although unproven in office, is Obama. Obama has raised far more money than all the Republican candidates for President put together. Obama, not Rush is the man backed by big global business. Obama is a better and truer free market champion:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-421860361503477148&q=obama+south+carolina&total=1626&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
Just watch this speech and truly listen to him heart and soul. There is something magical in the air. Rush just doesn’t have that kind of magic. (And I say it with all due respect to Rush . . . I am not trying to criticize him.) Everyone who is skeptical about what I have said above should just see the last few minutes of the video above.
Fatima, there are some Americans who think as you do—including Kissinger. I respectfully disagree with them.
Freedom and democracy is not only good for the local people who have it, but benefits everyone else in the world too. In the interdependent world we all live in, 1+1=3. (Read “The World is Flat” for a short synopsis about why this is true.) Success in any part of the world benefits people around the world. Failure in any part of the world harms people around the world.
Freedom and democracy in Japan, South Korea and India has benefited America enormously. How much faster has global technology progressed because of freedom and democracy around the world? How much richer are all of us versus what we would have been?
Think about the economy like a function with three inputs, labor, capital, and technology (or how well workers use capital to create income). When any of these inputs increase, global income increases. More workers mean more total global income (although less income/worker all else being equal.) More capital (=accumulated all previous global savings) means more total global income (although less income/unit of capital = real risk adjusted rate of return on capital drops if global capital increases all else being equal.) More technology means more total global income AND more income per worker and per unit of capital (real rate of return on capital goes up.) To summarize:
· More workers means more total global income, lower income per worker, higher rate of return on capital
· More capital means more total global income, higher income per worker, lower rate of return on capital
· More technology means more total global income, higher income per worker, higher rate of return on capital
Technology is to a significant degree a global public good. Once invented, most people around the world benefit from it; regardless of who invented the technology originally (although everyone does not benefit to the same degree.) There is reason to believe that technological progress in one part of the economy facilitates faster technological progress in other parts of the global economy (or in other parts of the world). There is reason to think that collaboration (outsourcing, off-shoring, web 2.0, cooperation across the globe in ideation, identifying new products people need, determining the specifications the new product should deliver, product development, product execution) facilitates faster technological growth not just among the economic agents collaborating with each other, but the world more generally.
Technological progress = rising living standards around the world. Ergo, freedom, democracy, and globalization everywhere facilitates faster global technological progress, which causes higher living standards everywhere.
This is an important reason why America and the rest of the world should work together to encourage freedom and democracy everywhere. Our values and our long term interests are almost the same thing.
Fatima, I respect you and Kissinger. But I profoundly disagree with Kissinger’s world view.
Fatima, please come and visit us at Iraqi Mojo again. I enjoyed your comments the last time around.
Fatima, so far with few exceptions voters have chosen free market pro-globalization candidates in free elections. Not in every election. But the general trend over time is that free market pro-globalization candidates win elections.
Freedom and democracy (only greater freedom without democracy in China) has facilitated far greater prosperity in Asia, moderately more prosperity in Latin America. In general freedom and democracy has been a positive force.
Why do you think that the middle east would be any different? This does not make sense to me. I don’t know for sure how middle easterners would vote. However, voters in Lebanon seem to favor globalization so far. Hence the political backlash against Hezbollah (although most Lebanese Shia are still grinding their teeth and sticking by Hezbollah for the moment.) If Hezbollah wants to become the majority party in Lebonan, I believe they need to reinvent themselves as a Lula/Obama pro-business party.
A real test might be how Iraqi voters vote in provincial elections this year, and general elections next year.
So far both Fatah (immensely corrupt based on everything I can see), and Hamas have ran anti-globalization policies. As a result, the Palestinian economy is in the toilet, and Palestinian voters are furious (at Israel, their leaders and the rest of the world.) I see a real opening for pro-business, pro-globalization candidates doing well in future Palestinian elections. (I hope that Hamas decides to go that route.)
Notice the massive improvement in Turkey’s economy because of pro globalization policies. It is hard to see anti-globalization, anti-business politicians doing well in Turkish elections for the foreseeable future.
Fatimah, why do you think that middle eastern voters will elect anti-globalization extremists? Why would middle easterners want something different from everyone else in the world? The success stories of Asia (Dubai, India, China, Malaysia) are well known in the Arab world. One successful example is worth a thousand words. And Asia has many successful examples. Most Arabs greatly envy Dubai, India and China, Malaysia (and America/Europe too to be sure) and want to be more like them. This fascination and attraction will cause the Arab people to demand that their countries become free democracies and globalize.
Fatimah, I am trying to understand your argument. Where is the error in my thinking?
Irish eyes, why do you dislike Israel so much? Is it possible that Israel is trying to facilitate freedom and democracy in the middle east because that would benefit Arabs, Israelis, and the rest of the world? Israel hasn’t always been competent, or lived up to its own values, aspirations and promise. Israel has not lived up to its own good values in Palestine. And this saddens the consciences of the good Israeli people to no end.
Similarly, the Palestinians are a good people who want to do right by themselves, Israelis and others. They want peace, prosperity and freedom (I think in interdependent co-dependent collaboration with Israel.) The Jihadis do not reflect the goodness and values of the Palestinian people. It is wrong to impugn the noble Palestinian people and blame them for violence directed against Israel by the dark forces (I am deeply saddened that some Israelis have done just this.)
Israelis and Palestinians need to work together to crush the dark forces, bring peace, stability, and security (lower ordinary and organized crime) to all of Palestine. Then they need to work together to bring prosperity and equality to all their people across all boundaries of faith, race and creed. They are both the sons of Abraham. Brothers in spirit, values and interests. Together, what can they achieve? This is why the Takfiri fear them so much. This is why the Takfiri try to kill both of them so much. (There have been many pitched battles between Hamas and AQ-linked networks, which is why those who say that Hamas is irredeemable, or definitely predisposed to Jihadi ideology are incorrect.)
Irish eyes, I might be naïve and optimistic. But isn’t it better to dream of what might be possible and reach for the stars than to not dream at all. For better to try for the impossible and fail badly, than succumb to realism or skepticism. What great leader in world history; what great country in world history; what great movement in world history has ever been a realist or skeptic? Haven’t all of them been optimists focused on making possible what cannot be done?
the saker
what I meant by Mossad being smart and intelligent, they committ crimes and they are not found out , not in a million years , they did it in Argentina , they are all over morocco , and egypt they killed Most Egyptian nuclear scientists and so far , their identity is protected . that s what i meant .
Many in the Arab world envy dubai in terms of Money and investments but feel sorry for it for Losing its identity for having kids so confused about their roots and identity , for the loss of morals and principles (now most are driven by quick gain while abusing the human rights of Labourers ) the increase of prostitution and drugs among the youth , the increase of unemployment of youth , while the masses of Asian workers continue.
Dubai has recently realised this and wants to address all these issues before it is too late .
They are paying the price for their success and many families are seeing a new trend of a home is no longer the home that unite a family , but people use homes almost as a hotel, kids have their friends and hang out in malls , madame has her club and friends because there is a maid at home , and husband is too busy minting money and meeting new deadlines …
I have seen MANY Emiraties showing concern at their society , regardless of the money theya re making . try and watch AL Hiwar or AL demokratia channel if you understand Arabic , you will understand their worry .
Link
Fatima, Vineyard and Irish eyes are saying that the Mossad is not capable of doing what you say they have done.
I don’t regard the IDF as nearly as incompetent as Vineyard does (and am closer to you in this.) But consider the following:
Israel’s IDF has many drafted members and high churn. Its NCOs and officers are not as strong as many purely professional militaries (such as the US military, Jordan’s, South Korea’s {now that is an awesome military}, Singapore, Australia, or India/Pakistan.)
Notice how both Gen Jones (former NATO Supreme Allied Commander) and Gen Petraeus have said that the ISOF (Iraqi Special Operations Forces) is as good or better than any other SOF in the middle east. Notice that ISOF is as good or better than the IDF SOF. ISOF has better junior officer and NCO cadre.
Israel’s military culture makes achieving the quality level of the ISOF, for example, difficult to match.
Israel has never been as good as the legend. Many GIs think that Jordan’s military is better quality.
The IDF and Mossad are not 10 feet tall, nor are they capable of even 10% of the grand tales people accuse them of orchestrating.
Still, Vineyard, the IDF is improving and is better quality now than it has ever been. The IDF fought well in Lebanon in 2006, better than it had ever fought before. Hezbollah performed better than expected.
Hezbollah shaped the battle space before hand, and provoked the Israeli ground offensive on their schedule and into the locations that they wanted. They had studied the IDF well and were well prepared for what followed. Hezbollah fought well. They also sustained heavy losses in talented cadre, equipment, expense, and local politcs. (Iran was financially strained by what happened in 2006. Iran is likely to discourage a repeat any time soon.)
Fatimah, you make excellent points. Many Arabs and non-Arabs feel the same way. The issue that you mention is by far the single biggest concern the Indian/Indonesian/Malaysian people have about globalization. Your points deserve a serious and thoughtful response.
There is a materialistic almost gaudiness about Dubai that is slightly uncomfortable. I am sometimes reluctant to express this out load, maybe for fear of being seen as anti-Arab.
Fatimah, Dubai is the headquarters for many large global companies now (these companies no longer really belong to any particular country), such as Halliburtan. I sometimes feel that the issues that you allude to describe the chasm between our humanistic nature and a crass type of materialistic group think. Materialism is one of many things that humans aspire for, but it isn’t the most important thing humans aspire for.
All the money imaginable is meaningless when the heart is empty.
Anand is too inane, if not plain stupid, to bother wasting words on (believe me, I have tried)
Fatimah
“what I meant by Mossad being smart and intelligent, they committ crimes and they are not found out , not in a million years , they did it in Argentina , they are all over morocco , and egypt they killed Most Egyptian nuclear scientists and so far , their identity is protected . that s what i meant .”
if they are not ‘found out’, then how is it that ordinary folks like you know about it? Granted, intelligence agencies by their very nature are secretive, but can you name some unambiguous mossad successes in the past decade or so, just to counterbalance the list provided by myself and VS?