By Brainstorm
On March 14, 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu to start the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria beginning the next day. Russia will, however, keep its military presence at the port of Tartus and at the Khmeimim airbase to supervise the observation of ceasefire agreements.
“I consider the objectives that have been set for the Defense Ministry to be generally accomplished. That is why I order to start withdrawal of the main part of our military group from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic starting from tomorrow,” Putin said on Monday during a meeting with Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“In a short period of time Russia has created a small but very effective military group [in Syria]… the effective work of our military allowed the peace process to begin,” Putin said, adding that with the assistance of the Russian Air Force “Syrian government troops and patriotic forces have changed the situation in the fight with international terrorism and have ceased the initiative.”
This sudden decision surprised many, and various comments appeared in the press and in social media groups as well. Russia’s move was generally seen as a big military and political step, after almost 6 months of an extremely successful campaign in aid of the legitimate Syrian government and President Bashar al-Assad.
In light of ongoing peace talks in Geneva and a more or less successful ceasefire between Syrian Coalition troops and so-called “moderate rebels”, this decision by the Kremlin could be seen as a message to the rest of the world that Russia is supporting, by all means, a diplomatic solution to the Syrian conflict. And indeed, Mr. Putin concluded:
“I hope that today’s decision will be a good signal for all sides of the conflict [and that] it will significantly increase the level of trust for all participants of the peace process in Syria and provide for peaceful means to solve the Syrian issue.”
Some opposition groups and “moderate rebel supporters” even went out onto the streets to celebrate Russia’s withdrawal. However, they would soon come to realize that their celebrations were groundless:
“To control the observation of ceasefire agreements in the region, Moscow will keep its Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province and a base at the port of Tartus”, Putin said.
The bases “must be effectively secured from onshore, offshore and from the air,” Putin said, adding that Russia has had this military group in Syria for many years.
So, what is the nature of Russia’s withdrawal, according to Putin’s decision? During the Russian campaign, besides continuing to operate the long-established air base at Khmeimim and naval base at Tartus, the Russian military deployed marines and some supporting ground troops in order to efficiently defend these bases, as well as a number of military personnel—instructors and special forces units—whose task was to advise the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), conduct combat exercises with the SAA, and improve the SAA’s communications, tactical skills, and operational efficiency, as well as provide new weapons and arms training, etc., conduct surveillance tasks, etc.
Those units besides protecting and securing military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, were also spread around on the large territory under the control of SAA and coalition troops and they did extraordinary job in such a short period, under the war conditions in turning SAA army into the most efficient army in the region reversing the situation on the ground.
Since the Kremlin announced that the naval base in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim will remain in operation as the guarantee of the ceasefire and peace talks, the withdrawal could be related to the mentioned support ground troops only.
This could have a sense since, with a Russian help, SAA has been improved and transformed in a very successful, operational and well trained army which could keep its initiative on the ground, clearing remaining pockets of rebels, Al-Qaida affiliated terrorist groups and further suppressing of ISIS.
Withdrawal of the ground troops by the Kremlin could be considered as the political step of a good will to achieve peaceful solution, the strong signal to the peace talks, and the nice cover for eventual secret agreement with US about final solution to the Syrian war and crisis, offering generously a good cover for US to make some more constructive steps in that direction.
Yet, there is a small “but”, which is sitting right in the nexus, leading to some uncomfortable feelings… By the time of writing this article, news appeared that the first combat group of Russian jets took off heading back to Russia. So, the “main part of the military group” also include a number of fighter and bomber jets. Why now? Are “the objectives that have been set for the Defense Ministry” generally accomplished?
Moderate rebels, who are pretending to be Syrian opposition keep changing the flag according to the current needs and objectives. ISIL is far from being ultimately destroyed, final battles for Palmyra and race for Raqqa are still on the table for SAA and Syrian coalition. Supply roads to Aleppo are still vulnerable for the SAA without the strong air support. The border corridor between the Turkey and ISIL controlled territories are still open.
Russian campaign along the SAA and coalition forces successfully cut the “path of oil” which ISIL used to sell Syrian oil to Turkey, and the main convoys of supply for ISIL terrorists. Thousands of air strikes destroyed the most of ISIL infrastructure, ammo stocks, heavy weapons, and transportation systems leaving ISIL pretty weaken and vulnerable. Yet, that was not enough to defeat ISIL without the ground offensive which is the absolute must in such a war. But ground offensive must be supported by air forces?
Does the winning side step back, achieving just limited goals, and while is winning – put a stop on the campaign, hold peace talks and in the same time withdraws part of its troops?
Questions and question arising without proper answers which make my nexus to tremble and has a bad feeling.
Despite the ceasefire (which is still holding) and the peace talks in Geneva, reports of Turkish activities are disturbing the public.
During the Russian operation, Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia, was exposed as the main destabilizing factor in the region, waging a dirty war against Syria—supporting, arming, financing, recruiting and refitting ISIL terrorists and other so-called “moderate rebels”—in the fight against the Syrian government. And while the ceasefire more or less holds, Turkey has intensified its presence on the Syrian border, daily shelling Kurdish and even SAA positions along the border, using the ridiculous excuse of it being Turkey’s sovereign right to create a secure zone—in foreign territory, no less!—to protect itself.
The most disturbing reports appeared recently, stating that Turkish troops had crossed the Syrian border and occupied a narrow strip of Syrian land, preventing Kurdish and Coalition troops from completely locking down the border and cutting off the connection path between ISIL and Turkey.
In the past few weeks there have been a lot of rumors that a Turkish/Saudi-led coalition is preparing and advocating for its engagement in a war against terrorism, practically announcing that they will cross the Syrian border in their fight against ISIL—?
What is really behind this coalition? By now it is obvious to everyone that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are the main supporters of ISIL, to say nothing of the USA, of course, which is indeed the grand master designer of this entire crisis including the actual creation of ISIL.
The uninvited and unapproved actions of a Turkish/Saudi coalition would amount to an actual invasion of a large part of Syria, establishing direct control over northern and northeastern Syrian territory. By this action, a Turkey/GCC coalition would perform illegal occupation extracting the part of Syrian territory needed to control the prospective Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline.
From a look at the map below, it will be obvious where the Syrian territory to be controlled in such a scenario is located and how ISIL territory was expanded to achieve this goal.
The Russian campaign in Syria disrupted all the Turkish/Saudi plan at its roots, despite billions of dollars invested so far in the war against Syria.
Let’s take a look Turkey’s current status: Russian actions against terrorists in Syria, as well as extremely well-documented evidence of Turkish involvement in a dirty war against Syria, its support for ISIL and its theft of Syrian oil through ISIL rat channels, have put Turkish President Erdogan in a very unpleasant situation. And following Turkey’s criminal act of shooting down a Russian fighter jet on a mission against ISIL, the killing of one of the pilots as well as a Russian marine sent to rescue them, support for Erdogan from NATO allies, and from the USA in particular (as Turkey’s main supporter), started to fade—nobody was willing to risk widespread conflict against Russia and its allies because of a mad decision by an unstable politician.
At the same time, Kurdish forces fighting ISIL in Syria got support both from Russia and from Turkey’s closest ally—the USA.
Putting himself between a rock and a hard place, Erdogan launched an offensive against areas of Turkey with a majority Kurdish population, unleashing a real civil war with clashes and battles on an enormous scale.
The total destruction of Cizre
Kurdish troops, together with the SAA and alliance forces, supported by the Russian air force and some special ground troops helping the SAA, are closing the remaining gaps through which ISIL has been supplied and Syrian oil has been stolen, stolen oil that has brought Turkey and Erdogan enormous profits in the last few years.
The last thing that Erdogan would need at the moment is – a cease fire. Effective ceasefire and eventual success on peace talks would finally and ultimately close the narrow doors through Syrian territory for Turkey. The flame of civil war in Turkey is spreading into a blaze that is endangering even Turkey’s capital city, Ankara.
In the last 2 months, 2 deadly bombings hit Ankara, taking a terrible toll in human lives. No one is safe anymore. Reports from Ankara say that people are leaving their homes, out of fear, and that fear is everywhere.
https://www.rt.com/news/335463-central-ankara-blast-sunday/
Erdogan has tightened what is already a firm grip around his people, closing Facebook, Twitter and other social network sites. Journalists and lay people who speak against the regime are prosecuted and imprisoned. Dictator Erdogan has grabbed the role of Great Dictator. How long will the Turkish people be silent and obedient to the new sultan? Will the Turkish military continue to obey his orders, and for how long? Will millions of Turks head to the streets demanding his resignation? How will he keep waging his domestic war against the Kurds?
Erdogan needs a war in Syria to continue. He will not survive politically in the peace appearing on the Middle East horizon. Ultimate defeat of ISIL and Al-Qaeda-affiliated rebel groups in Syria is a death sentence for Erdogan’s regime. He requires a resumption of the Syrian conflict, and indeed, Turkey is very active in sabotaging the peace talks:
The most recent reports from the ground warn that Turkish troops have crossed the Syrian border and are occupying a narrow strip of Syrian land, preventing Kurdish and SAA coalition troops from sealing the gap between ISIL-controlled territory and Turkey.
The clock is ticking on Erdogan’s head. Ticking loudly. His days are numbered, and he knows it. He is cornered, and there is no way out.
Stranded and clearly to be abandoned by NATO in any conflict with Russia, Erdogan has one option—an alliance and military coalition with the Saudi/GCC countries. They are the only group of actors willing to participate with him on a path of evil leading to a direct war in Syria and against Russia. (http://en.abna24.com/cultural/archive/2016/03/14/740860/story.html)
So what will Erdogan do? Is the clock ticking on his head a war clock? Does Putin’s diplomatic decision of withdrawal of the “main part of the military group” have some deeper meaning? Perhaps not just a diplomatic move, but a military one? Was this decision the brilliant tactical maneuver of the great strategists in the dawn of imminent unfolding of the greater war?
Russia has shown exceptional mobility and efficiency in her blistering campaign in Syria against ISIL. The entire west, including the USA and other NATO countries, have been captivated by Russia’s masterful actions, prepared for and performed in an unimaginably short period of time and with tremendous competence. But we have to keep in mind that brilliant Russian strategy and achieved results was done with a really moderate size of forces deployed in the ground. While this is the one more factor showing the outstanding capabilities of the Russian military forces, we must not neglect the fact that such relatively small, remotely deployed group is vulnerable and in the war in Syria unfolds with the Turkish/Saudi/GCC coalition against Syria and Russian troops in Syria, combat group would not be able to successfully wage combat operations and significant losses could be expected. So what could Russia do?
There are just a few solutions to this scenario: to push for diplomatic solution / peace talks (which are already on the table), to tactically regroup/withdraw the most vulnerable parts of the combat group, or to use tactical nuclear missiles against the large Turkish/Saudi coalition in order to protect their forces deployed in Syria.
What would a great strategist do, in the case of an eventual clash with a Turkish/ Saudi/ GCC coalition?
One thing for sure, he would order a tactical regrouping, a withdrawal of remote and dispersed units and/or a replacement of them with different types of combat units, the types necessary to wage successful war in changed conditions. Is this what Mr. Putin just did? Is it a tactical move to regroup and concentrate ground troops in the controlled region, where they could instantly be regrouped, relocated or withdrawn?
Two Russian bases—one naval base and one air base are ideal places for such maneuvers.
It is clear that any capable military commander would undertake this: Withdrawal of the main troops from being dispersed on the ground and relocation of same to secured positions or even out of the imminent conflict zones would save such troops, and would provide the necessary time to regroup them for refit or to increase their number and prepare them for blitzkrieg actions. Troops would remain intact upon the first enemy strike, while the naval base and air base would obtain necessary support, and the S-400 system would keep the skies over Syria and most of Turkey closed to any but Russian jets.
So aside from the diplomatic aspect of Putin’s decision to withdraw Russia’s main forces from Syria, there could also be, even more importantly, a military aspect, taken in the dawn of what could be an unfolding greater war in the Middle East.
We could learn the answer soon, sooner than anyone could have imagined.
Erdogan’s clock of war is ticking
Merkel is losing political control to the right wing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35802844
More kurdish unrest in Turkey will mean more refugees in Europe.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html
Britain wants to exit EU.
Looks like EU is going to collapse soon.
” Merkel is losing political control to the right wing”
It is all staged. Austerity is coming to Europe. High time for the Controllers to shift the political spectrum to the right. The AfD is to the CDU what Cola Light is to Coca Cola. Different Name, same poison.
zweistein
wo lebst du eigentlich ? AfD is just at the beginning
I have doubts that the whole political change is staged. I think there is real resentment at Merkel’s neoliberal open borders policy. There is however, a high risk that the movement will be hijacked by foreign controlled (i.e US bankers) nazis. The nazis will try to make germans look bad again.
Well the Syrian Kurds are now throwing down the gauntlet to Turkey by declaring that they
https://www.rt.com/news/335774-kurds-federal-system-syria/
want a federal system and state in Northern Syria. That is against the UNSC resolutions but hey – Turkey won’t let them sit at the table…….and the Kurds are doing exactly what the A/Z’s want…..the Syrian Government won’t accept this either.
It will be interesting to watch the Russian reaction to this – they did warn this could happen.
Let us suppose that once ISIS is disposed of (needed by Syrian and Kurds), the Syrian Kurds decide to go against the agreed unified Syrian state, and hence become an existential threat to Syria. They will probably face attack from Syrian forces. What will Erdogan do in these circumstances. Stand by and do nothing and let his two enemies attack each other? Possible. Or exploit the siuation by saying ‘see, we told you the Kurds are terrorists’ and attack them too, claiming land from the Kurds.
My guess is that he would take the second option, destroying Kurds, weakening Syria, and gaining more territory. The US would no intervene as this would suit them.
In short the Kurds could be used by the AngloZionists and lose everything or go with the Russian plan and gain something (autonomy within unified Syria). If Syria remains unified and the Turks attack the Kurds, then they would have SAA assisatance.
I wouldn’t be too sure about the Syrian government not going for it. There’s nothing so terrible about federal systems; the Kurds get some control over how they live their lives, but they’re still part of Syria. Everyone is relatively happy, nobody has to fight a civil war. Look how well forced assimilation is going for Turkey.
I’m a Canadian. In Canada, we have a federal system. All the provinces have a good deal of autonomy, and Quebec has a bunch more. Back when they decided to start calling themselves a “nation” and a bunch of other stuff, everyone was all “Oh my God, we can’t let them do that stuff!” but now, nobody cares. They call themselves a nation, they do a lot of what they want, and now nobody in Quebec gives a damn about separation any more and it’s all good. Plenty of things wrong with Canada and Quebec, but they’re caused by neoliberal corporate bastards not by what the Quebecois feel like calling themselves or their insistence on running their own pension system.
Hi Purple LG,
Well they have now gone ahead and declared it:
https://www.rt.com/news/335951-kurds-federal-system-syria/
I don’t think the issue is federalisation – its the fact that they are just doing it unilaterally without the agreement or consent of the Government of Syria. It is against the constitution, UNSC resolutions etc. and plays directly into the hands of the A/Z’s who want to divide Syria. Suddenly Turkey wants a united Syria it seems. The Kurds are also undermining the peace talks too.
Its going to be interesting to see if Turkey will now allow them to the peace talks.
Rgds,
Veritas
Those simplistic utterings on Canada and Quebec bring nothing of value to the subject at hand. Autonomous regions, federalism, confederations unitary states etc. are not one just one big mishmash that can explain the situation at hand in Syria. Lets give more credit to seasoned and well meant experts that have been toiling for decades to untangle one imbroglio after another in the Middle East.
Cheers
Veritas – Yes that is indeed so and even worse, on the television news this morning less than 24 hours after the Russians left we have a top US military commander in Washington saying that he hopes that now the Russians have gone “the US backed rebels can make progress on the ground”
Saker,
I do like your analysis! Indeed there could be an hidden meaning in the withdrawal of the Russian army, and the thought of what may happen next….’the clock ticking” leaves me terrified.
Its called a feint.
A basic strategy that since time immemorial has caught out the unwary, the arrogant, and the undisciplined.
you are on the ball :-)
regards
evilc
Thinking about the constant Kerry – Lavrov meetings and the Putin – Obama phone calls, the way the cease fire occured so quickly once the US agreed to it, perhaps the main but unstated aim was simply to force the US to give up on its regime change operation in Syria.
This is a comment I posted at another site.
The war in Syria has gone on for five years because the US would accept nothing less than getting rid of the Assad government and putting their own proxies in place.
Russia has forced the US to forget about regime change in Syria and agree to peace. Now it is up to the US to keep control of its attack dogs Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Now that the US is out of the picture, things will gradually wind down in Syria.
The Turkmen terrorist units have been largely destroyed or pushed back into Turkey, the ISIS oil business with Turkey mostly destroyed, al Nusras supply lines largely stopped and weapons stocks destroyed
Without state backing, both ISIS and al Nusra will start to lose their power.
Already in the last week or so there has been local uprisings against al Nusra in Idlib province and against ISIS in Raqqa.
The main turning point here is the fact that Russia has forced the US to give up on their regime change operation in Syria, and now genuine efforts can be made in bringing peace to Syria.
The US is not out of the picture and they did not give up, just changing strategy to achieve it.
Changing to diplomacy (no doubt underhanded) instead of supplying guns. As Putin Announced Russia is now going to place the main focus on and intensify its diplomatic efforts
Changing to everything that will promote their interests.
Peter AU
Just a question : regarding the decision to withdraw the Russian main forces from Syria,wasn’t Putin’s decision influenced by the result of the elections in Iran ? As we know Iran has the main to loose if Assad is gone,but the pro-western in the Iranian political establishment are on their way ahead.They got the sanctions lifted and have good relations – or at least stable – with Turkey.Not to forget that there are some differences of opinions with Russia regarding the region,including Syria.Now,there are voices in Iran claiming they are not at all happy with this Russian move.Will these voices get laud within the new Iranian Assembly ? Some of them are arguing that now the Iranian troops have to be called back home.That means,leave Assad fallen.A big interior fight is going on in Iran and those around Rafsanjani seems to get space.
Not sure if my last reply went through as I lost the internet for a bit.
Looking at Putins speech at the UN he is very much against unilateral actions which is what Russia has just done in Syria. So perhaps this unilateral action was to oppose the US unilateral actions.
If some sort of peace agreement between the Syrian government, Syrian militia groups that have agreed to the ceasefire and Kurds, this becomes more a fight against terrorist organisations – al Nusra/ISIS than a civil war.
The would be setting the scene for a UN resolution to destroy ISIS ect with a UN force, rather than the US coalition which has the intention of getting rid of the Syrian government while pretending to fight ISIS.
“Not sure if my last reply went through as I lost the internet for a bit.” … no,not at all,probably my question was such as if I lost the internet for a bit more…your answers are always very clear and direct.
Russia’s actions in Syria were not unilateral as they fall within UN guidelines, it’s intervention having been at the bequest of the legitimate Syrian government. The US’s intervention in Syria on the other hand, was, as you state..unilateral, given it was not at the invitation of the host government.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 – John Kerry cried; neoconservatism died.
I have felt that the importance of running the pipeline from Qatar through Syria in relation to this conflict is over estimated. The pipeline could simply be run through US controlled Iraq to Turkey. The region where the pipeline would enter Turkey from Iraq is hilly or mountainous in places, but no exceptional engineering feat. The cost would be a bit higher but far less than the amount of money that has been poured into the Syrian conflict, so I think the pipeline makes up only a minuscule part of what has been happening in Syria.
I read somewhere that there is already an underground IRAQ to Turkey pipeline at billions usd a day and that truck convoys in Syria were a diversion. Anyone know this situation?
Map of pipelines here
http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/middle_east_pipelines_map.jpg
The same map plus some info here
http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/middle_east_oil_gas_products_pipelines_map.html#map
You’re forgetting the one never mentioned by anyone, the proposed shallow water offshore pipeline west coast Syria there , west of the Russian Tartus ‘base’ , that will carry israhole oil & gas from those offshore Med recently (2010) discovered fields straight up north to Turkey.
Completely unthreatened by any Syrian presence or action.
http://www.iiss.org/~/media/Images/Publications/Strategic%20Comments/Eastern-Mediterranean-gas-fields-630×385.gif
That’s been added obviously since 2010 when they found those fields.
Also it’s another reason why the fraudulent invaders want to finish annexing the Golan region taken from Syria & get it ‘recognized’ as part of their domain–remember that flurry in the news just a few weeks ago.
Brainstorm: You are so absolutely thinking like a strategist as well as a tactician…Those Russian bases may well be like zones of inoculation as well as a place from which to bear competent, compassionate witness to the world as the toxic broth of war surges around them. Everyone respects the Russians. Only the truly stupid people pretend not . And there are many people in the midEast who will only learn the hard way, unfortunately. And so be it. So Russia abruptly left but did not slam the door behind her—polite as always.
@teraban13 Thank you for your comment. I tried to evaluate one aspect which is never to be mentioned in any official statements, but so far it wasn’t thoroughly evaluated by the media and analysts, and that is the unknown and possible erratic moves by desperate actors: Erdogan and Saudi Arabia in the first plan who are with the recent events and Russian briliant military and diplomatic moves put in front of the wall.
Although all odds are against such unilateral and violent action, it would be irresponsible not to think about the military aspect of the Russian prolonged engagement in the size, type and objectives of their military contingent in the unfolding situation in the Middle East.
As I said, Putin is a great politician and leader, but not only that, he is the “old school” of Russian military/security personnel and he is also surrounded by the not less capable military advisers. It is unimaginable that Moscow didn’t take all possible aspects of the military mission into account, including the one I tried to extrapolate in this article.
LaRouche’s view of the matter:
“The western world was stunned on Monday when President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a pull-out of Russia’s military forces in Syria — as suddenly and unexpectedly as he began the intervention last September. But the surprise in the West comes not from Putin, but from the fact that almost no one in the West understands how Putin thinks. He is perhaps the greatest strategic thinker since Gen. Douglas MacArthur, a quality of thinking, from the future, which is sorely lacking in the US and Europe today.
Putin, speaking on international TV Monday with his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, declared that the mission had been largely accomplished, that the terrorist offensive against the Syrian state had been crushed and was being rolled back – a major victory against terrorism internationally. He noted that his western friends had been uninterested in peace talks while the terrorist forces they were supporting were winning, but now had come around to join the peace effort. He made clear that the Russian support for the Syrian army against ISIS and al Nusra would continue — an effort which the competent leaders within the US military and foreign service are supporting.
Several political and military sources have informed EIR that there are intense discussions proceeding behind the scenes, along the lines of the Kerry-Lavrov collaboration, which will be revealed in the coming days.
Lyndon LaRouche pointed out today that this successful flanking operation by Putin in Syria, exposing Obama’s support for terrorists through his friends in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, has stymied the British Empire apparatus internationally, helping Putin’s friends elsewhere to stand up for their strategic interests — especially Xi Jinping in China. The Chinese are now preparing a program to tax speculative financial transactions — not to make money, but to curb the speculators. Hedge funds will be required to demonstrate that hedges and currency transactions are based on real trade or investments, not for speculative purposes — and this has sent the speculators into conniptions.
Why are Americans tolerating the destruction of their economy, the perpetual war policy, and an election campaign which is far worse, and more dangerous, than a clown show? Look to the belief in money — the measure of all things by monetary values and mathematical formulas, rather than by the progress of the real economy and human society. The US and European and Japanese economies are awash with liquidity, with money, but it is all fictitious. The real economy is in free fall — infrastructure decay, industrial collapse, mass unemployment — which is driving ever larger numbers of working people to suicide, thorough drugs or otherwise.
China and Russia and India have built a new paradigm, through the BRICS, the AIIB, and the New Silk Road, based on principles once embraced by Americans as their own. Americans, and Europeans, must once again embrace the concept of a common goal for mankind, based on the successful advance of mankind as a whole, or watch the current imperial rulers of the West lead the world to Hell.”
Lyndon LaRouche is a convicted criminal – a lowly thief and a fraudster, who spent full five years of his 15 (fifteen!) year sentence in a federal prison; the members of his criminal gang have been sentenced to prison terms of up to 77 years. Who cares what that scum “says” about Putin and Syria? But above all: how was the above comment allowed on Saker’s site?
—
From Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaRouche_criminal_trials :
“… a federal grand jury in Alexandria, Virginia, indicted LaRouche and six associates. After a short trial in 1988, LaRouche was convicted of mail fraud, conspiracy to commit mail fraud, and tax evasion, and was sentenced to prison for fifteen years. He entered prison in 1989 and was paroled five years later. At the same trial, his associates received lesser sentences for mail fraud and conspiracy.[1] In separate state trials in Virginia and New York, 13 associates received terms ranging from one month to 77 years. The Virginia state trials were described as the highest-profile cases that the state Attorney General’s office had ever prosecuted.[2] Fourteen states issued injunctions against LaRouche-related organizations. Three LaRouche-related organizations were forced into bankruptcy after failing to pay contempt of court fines.
Defense lawyers filed numerous unsuccessful appeals that challenged the conduct of the grand jury, the contempt fines, the execution of the search warrants and various trial procedures. At least ten appeals were heard by the United States court of appeals, and three were appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. … Following the convictions, the LaRouche movement mounted failed attempts at exoneration. …”
So is this LaRouche a good guy or a bad guy? The link you put is meaningless as the same may happen to anyone like Saker or others if they need to be taken out of the equation
You are on the right track Peter. A few more clues for you and Ralph the Clueless but Hopefully Honest Man:
In the 1999’s LaRouche’s organization (Executive Intelligence Review or EIR) published Sergei Glazyev’s 300 page book Genocide: Russia and the New World Order in English. Copy available here: http://www.amazon.com/Genocide-Russia-New-World-Order/dp/0943235162
In 2001 Mr LaRouche and his German wife Helga Zep LaRouche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helga_Zepp-LaRouche ) were invited to Moscow for a four day event celebrating the life of Russian space scientist Pobisk Kuznetsov,, a personal friend of Mr. LaRouche. This article by Russian speaker Rachel Douglas, Russian speaker and Russian specialist for EIR News Service reports on that celebration http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2850pobisk_intro.html.
And this short video clip https://youtu.be/stiiMZ_JiQA shows Rachel giving a presentation on IGMASS, Russia’s proposed International Global Aerospace Monitoring Space System, including Russian video from that organization at the 6 min 30 sec mark. Thanks, Ralph! Without you I probably never would have looked for it or seen it!
As to the legal fuss at the end of the 1980’s I can help you out there too. The intent of The Great Leesburg Panty Raid of 1986 (as targetted LaRouche associates derided it) prior to the legal persecution and political railroading of Mr LaRouche and several other associates in 1989-1990 was to physically eliminate Lyndon LaRouche and many of his associates in a 400 man dawn raid provoking a shoot-out with the man’s security detail, modeled on the elimination of the Branch Davidians in Waco, Texas which burned up a few dozens of women and children, along with their less intelligent male security detail. That 1986 raid in Virginia also has a Russian angle: It was conducted just days before Reagan and Gorbachev met in Reykavik, Iceland:
http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/1986/eirv13n41-19861017/eirv13n41-19861017_030-gorbachov_attack_on_larouche_tri.pdf
Hope these links help, for starters.Still want me censored, Ralph?????
I don’t know enough about the Lyndon LaRouche case to have a well thought out opinion. I am interested in the truth. I found this: http://www.larouchepub.com/exon/exon_toc.html . He says he was persecuted and a miscarriage of justice occurred. Is he really the bad guy? I need to read/know more before I can make a fair assessment.
I’m not sure either, but somehow various links came into my domain and after some basic background research I came to the conclusion that whatever the facts about criminal activities etc, he is definitely a know-it-all, name dropping cult leader, with a healthy borderline conspiracy theory syndrome (the British monarchy!) and a cluster of well-spoken doting acolytes who never fail in their presentations/discussions to mention how wise and all knowing their ‘dear leader’ is etc. More a Sun Myung Moon (Moonie) type than a Kim Jong-un. Seemed harmless enough to me although I think he had a new year pronouncement (with date) about the end of (financial) world as we know it. Most of these “LaRouche’s view” type comments seem to follow a pattern and focus on the “LaRouche” aspect rather than the topic du jour. I guess some people need father figures. All hail the ‘great’ leaders … pass the popcorn please.
“… a Sun Myung Moon (Moonie) type …”
Quite. Another striking similarity would be with the demented writer turned “guru” L. Ron Hubbard. The LaRouche devotees are quite like the “Scientology” ones (praying on the unsuspecting on street corners, bus depots and airports with their pan-handling gear), complete with their hyper-costly army of lawyers. In 1970s and 1980s LaRoucheans were congesting hallways of colleges large and small all over the U.S., advertising “nuclear fusion” (when that was in vogue), had even that really bizarre “Fusion” magazine, blaming everybody and everybody’s grandmother for “delaying development of fusion research”:-) … … … Now since the advent of Russia under Putin, LaRouche is desperately trying to hitch a ride with the winner. What a living weathervane :-)
I used to follow Lyndon Larouche’s webcasts and writings 5+ years ago. For a man of 93 years old he remains exceedingly intelligent and eloquent. He has always been a major political opponent and critic of the US Establishment, but never really a part of it. Whilst I know little about his imprisonment, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if it was politically motivated and not a result of criminal activity.
Some of the analyses LaRouche, and his LaRouchians (who have always been demonised as a cult – by the mainstream media) are in my view exceedingly interesting.
That however, does not mean, that his ideas are necessarily correct, and I certainly disagree with many of them.
LaRouche’s knowledge of history is exceptional, but he remains obsessed with blaming the British Empire for everything that is wrong with the world. Personally, I think the British influence on world affairs is now minimal, and the British are just as much controlled as Germany is by the US Government (who’s foreign policy is heavily influenced by Neocons).
LaRouche very rarely if ever blames anything on Neocons. This may well be because he shares a similar political history as a Trotskyite in his youth. People do however change their political views.
To portray LaRouche as a “convicted criminal – a lowly thief and a fraudster” may be completely harsh and unjust, although his imprisonment definitely happened. Lots of innocent people end up in jail, when they have committed no crime.
It is not a crime to have different political views, though soon it may well become so. It could very soon become a criminal offence to challenge the Official story of 9/11.
I don’t know what LaRouche’s view is on 9/11 but I suspect he blames the British. I have found no evidence whatsoever of any British involvement, but if LaRouche wants to blame the British for it, he should be free to do so, without risking further imprisonment.
Tony
It’s mostly semantics that confuses people, but I don’t think the old man (93) LaRouche is confused to stick to the British theme. It’s not an invalid approach. But every approach has its downside, as well, in terms of incomprehension from segments of the world population, the US population, or the British population. (English friends, he’s not blaming you. It’s your satanic elites he’s after.) Half the visitors here can’t stomach Saker’s “Anglo-Zionist” or AZ formulation, objecting to the second word, mostly, as they readily accept that the American elite is “anglo”.
Tony, have you noticed that Saker explains that in its present form of an ANGLO-American Empire, in its most conspicuous overt expression is American, but the British are always there, in the shadows? Or right out in the open?
Examples:
1) Margaret Thatcher “stiffening” George H W Bush’s spine to attack Iraq.
2) Tony Blair’s proclamation of the end of the Westphalian System (of respect for national sovereignty) in favor of the new Empire doctrine of “Responsibility to Protect” after they have set up the targeted nation, like Libya or Syria with false flag violence.
3) Henry Kissinger’s doctoral thesis at Harvard “A World Restored” extolling the return of the west to British designed oligarchic “stability” after the annoying disturbances of the American and French revolutions, following the 1815 Treaty of Vienna.
4) Kissinger’s proud proclamation that as Secretary of State he always consulted the British Foreign Office before his own US State Department.
Who is senior, in imperial experience, in such a “special relationship”? Who is junior? Who is the brawn? Who is the brains? The brawn is more visible and likely to take the blame, isn’t it? Should the brains and greater experience be ignored???
The methods of the Venetian Empire were imported into Britain and took the place over (see former LaRouche associate Webster Tarpley numerous u-tube presentations on theVenetian Conspiracy…………). That organization could correctly talk of the NWO crowd today as “Venetian” in origin and character, but an even smaller percentage of people would follow such a formulation as are able to comprehend that British imperial practice has taken over the Eastern Liberal Establishment (CFR, etc) since the time of Aaron Burr.
Who is higher ranking in the 911 false flag, the dark occultists who designed it, or the people like Rumsfeld and Cheney that such occultists call “Our Dogs”….(.of war that is…..) ? The people who run the pedophilia rings that control politicians, or the buggery specialists like Tony Blair, David Cameron or even Henry Kissinger, who they both compromise (blackmail) and empower?
More on the occult controllers later. For now, please check out Who We Were-America Before The British Coup https://youtu.be/NnirPO3YJaQ by Anton Chaitkin one of Mr LaRouche’s most skilled historians. Got to run to an appointment.
“More on the occult controllers later.”
Please bring it on!
Stay tuned, Eagle. I’m not an expert yet, but I’m learning fast.
First go back in the archives to my post in the thread to the article /is-there-a-crack-in-the-dam-holding-back-the-truth-on-syria/ 15th post from the top.
After a little mood-setting with 3/5 of Highway 61 Revisited, the Numerology of 911 is gone into.
If anyone thinks those numbers (of the flights, 11, 175, 93 and 77 are random, accidental, or irrelevant, they are like a right brain imbalanced 6 year old naive child up against the dark occult.
If anyone is so much of a left brain imbalanced (rigid scepticism) engineer that they “aren’t interested” they have even less of a chance of seeing through the psychopathy of those who hype themselves up by so gloating over their criminality, hidden in broad daylight with clues left all over the place for those that they know cannot “see” and are not interested in seeing.
If anyone is scared by what they see and thinks they should look away before it takes over their soul, they are right brain imbalanced victims of New Age bullshit. It is time to de-occult (un-hide) this stuff, not empower it by never exposing it to the light of day. Obviously. All for now. Back to my studies……….
sir are you clueless,but hopefully honest man or troll.
Interesting rumor from 3 weeks ago about a car bomb in Latakia. Most likely the term “generals” is misused, but it could have been Russian officers or commandants:
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Dozens-of-Russian-generals-in-Syria-killed-after-a-car-bomb-hits-their-military-base-445975
In general, after watching for years the conflict in Syria, what can be concluded is that population there is deeply divided and filled with traitors that will switch sides or sell-out. If that was a united country, no jihadist coming from abroad will be alive more than a day. But the sad reality is that half of population ran away, instead of putting up a fight for their country. What can you over there as a foreign country (I mean Russia), when the local population doesn’t know for sure what it wants ?
Also there is more and more evidence that the ISIS adapted to the airstrikes by digging more and more tunnels, which require very sophisticated sonars/radars/scanners to be detected. And then very expensive bunker-busting bombs.
The Iranians didn’t sent any big army, the Chinese are sitting on the sidelines waiting only to make profits when the war is over with whoever the winner is. Under this conditions, the outcome for Russia was a clear constant bleeding.
The recent reports of 1 or 2 airplanes (indeeed, older MIGs, but still …) being shot-down by new Stinger missiles are also fueling rumors.
Let’s admit it: if the situation in Syria wasn’t ripe enough for such a civil war to take place, this war would have not taken place. But the Assad family was perceived as dictators, even by some who are on his side. That explains why local population didn’t fight (like the Vietnamese did) against all the foreign jihadist invaders.
If Syrians were true patriots, how hard is to mobilize a huge army of 500,000 or even 1,000,000 and kick the ISIS out ???
I think Putin realized there are too many dangers in Syria and he can’t fully trust the SAA army.
Also check the rumors about the head of GRU death in Lebanon, apparently after returning from a mission in Syria (to meet with Assad as an envoy of Putin).
Also check the suspicious deaths of many Iranian top-commanders, too, around the Aleppo area. All of them behind the front lines (pinpointed strikes) and very likely as a results of treason and leaking information from SAA (Syrian Army) embedded traitors.
Give S-400 to syrians and most likely pieces of the system will end-up in some interesting locations (in exchange for some freshly printed green toilet paper named $).
You name it,that is the sad reality,if the Syrian people stayed on her foot and take the fight for their country…there is the If…but they didn’t,rather fleeing to Turkey than Europe – those young at military age.What a shameful contradiction with Vietnam.
I agree. The Syrian males… Pick a side and fight for your country.If Assad is as bad as the west say… then here’s your chance to oust him…if not, fight for him. Send your family away if you decided…but stay and fight …one side or the other.
Ziad Fadel supports the view that Russia has indeed achieved all its objectives, and is delighted that Syrians will soon control their own destiny once again:
The Russian intervention was at the request of the Syrian government. Russia did not impose itself on Syria and the deployment was not an occupation. As I have written before, the Syrian government, particularly this one, ruled by the Ba’ath Party, was loath to seek the assistance of any foreign power or tolerate foreign boots on Syrian territory. It is an axiom of Arab nationalism that true freedom for the peoples of the Arab World engenders total freedom from the presence of foreign forces. Therefore, as I wrote in an essay a year ago, in SyrPer, Dr. Assad waited until he was certain he needed Russian assistance to turn the tide in favor of the Syrian Army. The Russians, for their part, had to wait, with their plans in hand, for the Syrian leader to open the door for such intervention. When he did, their ducks were all in a row. …
Putin is telling the enemies of Syria that if they want to see Russia leave and stay out, they had better negotiate in good faith. This action of pulling out many Russian assets was a not-too-subtle message to the gangsters and pimps among the opposition that their only hope for peace in their country was to discuss its future with the legitimate government. Anything else would be political suicide. The Saudis had no choice but accept these terms, hence, the presence of the war criminal, Muhammad ‘Alloosh, who is Saudi Arabia’s point man in Geneva. The Saudis, more than anyone else, should take to heart the fact that as this war continues, our rage against the monkey regime in Riyadh only intensifies.
What have the Russians told the world by their phased withdrawal?
Russia is not an imperialistic nation. It does not seek to impose its power over Syria by occupying it and pulling the strings of puppets who rule it in name only.
Russia is cognizant of its legal obligations under the Charter of the U.N. Notice, Russia only intervened in Syria after Dr. Assad requested assistance.
Russia has an exit strategy whose implementation occurred only after fundamental objectives were achieved. Those objectives have been defined as a strengthening of the Syrian Army; closure of most supply routes to the terrorists with the Syrian military now responsible for the closure of the rest; degrading the capabilities of ISIS and Alqaeda in Syria; establishment of powerful forward bases for the Russian military in the event they are needed again in Syria. Of note is that the Russian Air Force destroyed over 4,000 high quality terrorist targets in 6 months!
Russia has also announced to the world that a great military force now exists in the Syrian Arab Republic. It is armed with the best Russian equipment. Whether it’s in the air with improved MiG 29s or on the ground with the newest T-90 tanks, the SAA now fields a force of over 340,000 soldiers, backed by a Popular Defense force of over 150,00 militiamen and thousands of other groups, including Hizbollah – all capable – eminently capable – of crushing any army that comes their way.
And for those of you who regret the Russian withdrawal, remember the words of the poet, Ibn ‘Unayn, who in his panegyric to the King, Al-Kaamil, warring with the Crusaders, summed up Vladimir Putin’s admonishment to all those who would return to the battlefield:
وقد عرفت اسيافنا ورقابهم مواقعها فيها فأِن عاودوا عدنا”
(I don’t speak Arabic, so I don’t know what Al-Kaamil is saying)
قد عرفت اسيافنا ورقابهم مواقعها فيها فأِن عاودوا عدنا”
Roughly:
Our swords, and their necks, have known their station/position. And if they return, so will we.
Listen to this Bloomberg drivel:
“From a purely cynical perspective, the operation has been a fairly impressive success for Putin: Bomb intensely to create a humanitarian crisis while your troops advance, then negotiate peace to look like a good guy while assuring that the other side can’t fight back without violating the truce” ….
I wonder if there will be a uniquely identifiable journalistic mental condition precipitated by the repetitive cognitive dissonance associated with writing such swill over a period of time?
Acute Post Propaganda Stress Syndrome?
Russian troops advanced? Feldman makes it sound like there are divisons and divisions of Russians at the Russian Front there. Are those perhaps like the ‘NATO proven’ phantom 1,000 tanks that ‘invaded’ Ukraine? Fodder for acute PPSS?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11606594
I was thinking along the same lines that we haven’t seen the last of this yet. I can’t help feeling that Putin’s withdrawal is a subtle threat to the US, particularly if you consider events leading up to the withdrawal – Turkey’s “creeping invasion of Syria”, Saudi threat of MANPADS, Syrian jet shot down by MANPADS, US threat at 2nd attempt to arm rebel groups and above all a “Cessation of Hostilities” that has lead to a peace process with a genuine chance of success.
Is there a message here that says make the peace process work, stop arming terrorist groups and clean up the ISIS mess because if we DO have to come back it will be war of the very worst kind.
Putin is setting a trap have no fear. The russians will not fly sorti’s but will still rule the skys not all the planes r leaving remember they had sent further planes last month during Turkeys sabre rattling and KSA shooting its mouth of and basing three f-16 and the B.S about having tacticle nukes and willing to use them. Putin is a master of modern warfare psy-ops and knows how to play thw western cabalist. They still rule the Syrian sky’s they will reduce the number of bombingd but the SAA airforce will increase theirs. He has laid a nice trap for the takfiris /Turkey/KSA and last but not least for the Khazarian-Ashkanazi/anglo-Zionist fascist. If they make one false move they will be further exposed for their deciet and deception. Have no mistake the anglo-zio0nist will attack anc try to invade Lebanon this will be part of the cabalist plan B destabalise leb. and enter Syria via the bak door . They will never give up their main goal is to isolate IRAN. And lastg but not least Armenian airbase is fuill of RuAF assets just waiting 4 the go ahead to cremate teh takfiri backers to the stone -age.
Putin made a very big mistake,both wars in Syria and Ukraine will escalate as th West sees the retreat as a sign of weakness.
What Putin Risks in Syria. Stephen F. Cohen, NYU, Princeton, EastWestAccord.com
https://audioboom.com/boos/4307850-what-putin-risks-in-syria-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestaccord-com
Russia’s Duma Elections Prepare for Trouble. Paul Gregory, Hoover. Ken Croswell, New Scientist.
Russia’s Duma Elections Prepare for Trouble. Paul Gregory, Hoover. Ken Croswell, New Scientist.
“The September 18 Russian parliamentary elections will take place amidst a deep economic crisis, with oil at $30 a barrel, and with election rules deliberately designed to blunt and conceal voter disaffection. The Putin regime incurs risks with this strategy because it creates an opportunity for political forces to emerge that actually address the deep concerns of the people. It is virtually impossible for the scheming Putin to know from whence such a threat will come.
At all costs: Avoid a repeat of the 2011 election
“Russia’s last parliamentary election (December 2011) sent tens of thousands of protesters into the streets calling for “Russia without Putin,” in outrage over the flagrant election fraud on the part of Putin’s United Russia (dubbed the “party of crooks and thieves”). The demonstrations shook Putin, who responded by cracking down hard on dissent. Deputies of suspect loyalty were purged from the Duma (the Russian parliament); ordinary demonstrators were given jail terms; and protest leaders were convicted of fictional crimes by kangaroo courts, the result being that the Duma has served for five years as a rubber stamp for President Putin. Among the three other parties, not one has been willing to act as an opposition party.
“Remember that the 2011 elections took place with $100-plus-oil, a growing (albeit slowly) economy, indexed pensions, and a balanced budget. Not so for 2016, amid $30 to $40 oil, sanctions, a collapsing ruble, double-digit inflation, unpaid salaries, and sharp budget cuts. In preparation for a blow up in reaction to the economic disaster, Putin has added to his formidable arsenal of election tricks to prevent his United Russia from being swept away in a tsunami protest vote.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/03/14/putin-changes-september-election-rules-to-prop-up-his-united-russia-party/#3b0289c358a2
https://audioboom.com/boos/4302980-russia-s-duma-elections-prepare-for-trouble-paul-gregory-hoover-ken-croswell-new-scientist
Brics are collapsing with Brazil coup imminent in final stage.India turns back to the US and China is not reliable.S Africa does not count.
Argentina,Bolivia,Venezuela,soon Ecuador are lost.
IN the EU color revolution in the making via Soros in Poland,Hungary…Germany.
All austerity coalions are blocked(portugal,irelan,greece,spain,soon netherlands,italy).
Belaruss is under attack.
Serbia near NATO.
Despite the attempts at political spin here, Russia’s withdrawal is increasingy looking like a stab in the back against Syria.
Russia is unhappy that Syria has been unwilling to tow the Russian line at the sham Geneva Peace Talks.
Now, Russia is positioning itself to cut a dirty deal with the Americans over the future of Syria and its government–the will of the Syrian people be damned.
Utlimately, it is America and Russia who think that they can decide the fate of Syria–never mind that the Syrian people have already voiced their choice and support Pres. Assad:
“Differences between the Putin and Assad governments have begun to emerge in relation to the talks in Geneva. While Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, declared on the eve of the talks that Assad’s position as president was a “red line” for the government, and the president would not negotiate his status, it is far from clear that Moscow agrees. As long as a new regime in Damascus is amendable to upholding Russia’s regional interests, the Putin government is evidently prepared to accept Assad’s departure.
Friction was already evident over last month’s declaration by Assad that, regardless of a ceasefire, his forces would continue combating “terrorists” and that retaking all Syrian territory was “a goal we are seeking to achieve without any hesitation.”
That statement prompted something of a rebuke from Russia’s United Nations envoy, Vitaly Churkin, who declared in an interview with a Russian newspaper that Assad’s statement “obviously contradicts Russia’s diplomatic efforts.” Churkin warned that if Damascus failed to align its policies with these efforts “there will be a difficult situation, one that will also involve them.”
Russia announces partial withdrawal from Syria
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/03/16/syri-m16.html
Indeed I have been wondering whether ‘Putin’s powerful message’ is directed, not at his enemies, but his allies. What you suggest is a strong spanner in the spinning works of the crowd who believe that Mr Putin is endowed with the Midas’ touch and everything he does is a masterful stroke of genius.
On the other hand one must appreciate and respect his bold move to support Mr. Assad. Most countries in the world outside the Empire’s orbit have been egging on and paying lip service to the Russian efforts to put and end to “full spectrum dominance”, but it was Russia alone who openly said “enough is enough” and acted on it. Where are Russia’s friends and allies (Bricks, SCO)? Fair weather friends and free loaders, if you ask me; hiding under Mother Russia’s skirts.
Kim
Let’s get something straight here.
Russia didn’t intervene in Syria out of any kind of altruistic motivation nor was it some noble desire to uphold “international law” or even to “fight terrorism.” These Russian rationales are just as ludicrous as the Anglo-Americans’ propaganda about “fighting terrorism” or supporting the “rule of law.”
Russia sent its military into Syria because it feared it was losing its client state to the Americans–and with it, Russia would lose its military base at Tartus; undermine its strategic postion in the Mediterrean and the scramble for off-shore energy resources of the area; and see the emergence of a Qatar-Turkey energy transport corridor to Europe that would undercut its own market dominance in the energy sector.
And Russia doesn’t support President Assad per se. The Russians will happily betray Assad if they can find someone else who will serve their interests more effectively–regardless if the Syrians reelect and support Assad.
That is part of the underlying dispute between Russia and Syria/Iran, which Vitaly Churkin’s backhanded rebuke of President Assad in the Russian media is about.
These comments by anonymous and the one by Kim seem more accurate than much I have read here in the last 48 hours.
Russia went into Syria to protect Tartus, to exercise it’s military and to show what it was capable of so as do to deter western warhawks.
Syria is still 60% occupied and no nearer getting rid of the western backed terrorist occupation now than before and the territorial gains made by the SAA will soon be lost as if the Russian campaign had never happened. How on Earth anyone could take the peace talks seriously when the main force at them, the USA, is the creator of all the terrorism in the first place and apart from anything else what is Assad supposed to compromise on, the sovereign territory of his country?
Yes there are great things about Russia but the truth is more important and Syrian lives are more important than Russia’s desire to be part of the big boys club. I thought Churkins remarks were well out of line.
It is obvious that Syria has been well and truly betrayed. My final killer question to the eulogists of this event is this – Do you believe that the USA has now given up on it’s years long goal of total world domination?
No ,not at all,the wolf is changing his skin but his behave remains the same.We can hope for the best but get ready for the worst
Excellent analysis!
Turkey is the wild card in this equation. I’m glad you emphasized the Ukraine style anti terrorist operation against the Kurds. This is simply appalling. It may not get much play in western corporate media but we can be sure that every Kurd in Turkey looks on the government as the enemy.
The diplomatic set up of the ceasefire puts potential violators, i.e., Turkey, Gulf oligarchs, on the wrong side of “the law” – Russia and the United States. Each agreed to the language with full awareness of the implications. Have we heard Erdogan threatening the U.S. lately or acting like he intends to invade Syria? He’s in a box for now.
I suspect that there was some quid pro quo between the Russians and Saudis on oil production. Maybe the cosmetic shift, aka “withdrawal”, was a bone Russia threw to the lunatics that run that kleptocracy.
On the larger issue your raised of Russia’s preparation for a broader war, I’m intrigued and also disappointed. There shouldn’t be any more war. But that’s wishful thinking.
” What would a great strategist do, in the case of an eventual clash with a Turkish/ Saudi/ GCC coalition?”
What is Brainstorm hallucinating about? Turkey isn’t going anywhere. Ditto the Saudis. And as far as the GCC is concerned: ha ha ha….
“Never say never”! This is one of the rules that should be followed. And every good strategist or tactician would never exclude any option, even if it looks not plausible of likely. Some big mistakes in history occurred just because of the pride and underestimation of the opponent.
And desperate times sometime bring up desperate measures. Every foot trooper knows that. And Erdogan is really desperate at the moment.
Neglecting that fact is just irresponsible and reckless.
I do not hallucinate, I just bold out what is an realistic scenario but so obvious at the first glance. If you accomplished your main goals you will not let your troops hanging around aimlessly and getting fat, wasting millions of money daily, and being a sitting duck and easy prey for some desperate and stranded dictator who already showed to be erratic and dangerous. Pull them back and prepare yourself for every possible scenario. That was my point.
I’ve read elsewhere that this withdrawal was the result of a backstage deal involving raising oil prices (which will help both RUS/KSA economies). The payment is the partition of syria.
With the ammounts of anti/counter/meta/proto/des-Information flowing around these days, whether that is truth, your guess is as good as mine.
In any case, we will find out in the next months. If the end result is a return to the 100$ usd barrel and a partition of syria, then the rumours where founded.
OTOH, this action looks like a master play. If we calmly analize what has happened, we can see this as a called shot that surprises everyone. RUS managed to get in, do its deed and get out, on time, as announced, and as such surprising everyone? Fantastic!
Clearly the news got the MSM off guard. If this had happened in a few weeks, after that was asked, and the MSM was ready to spin it, it would remove the benefits from the deed from RUS. By doing it in advance, unanounced, unilateraly, they control the situation and stay on top of the game.
Master play or Master doublecross? Time will tell. I know what I prefer to hope.
I’m a bit sick of the hurra-patrios displaying this withdrawal as a stab in the back.
Before October 15, people complained Putin was letting Syria down. Then the Russians went in, and reversed the course of operations. As the Saker pointed out, their objectives were clearly spelled from the start, and when the objectives were met, Russian started pulling out.
I’ll admit I was also taken by surprise by this development. A part of me would have liked the Russians to stay, and even increase their commitment. But what this shows is only that I’m an amateur, and I have no skin in this game.
It’s the same as in poker. Newbies will lose their head and try to push their luck to the limit, invariably going too far. Pros set themselves clear goals, and leave the table when the goals are met. Putin is such a pro. Do you think that he’s losing heart now ? After going toe-to-toe with Turkey and risking World War Three ? People said the same with the Donbass. Why would Putin bother the effort in the first place, if he was jumping ship now ?
We have been infected by the “total war” mentality of the XXth century. The Russians are playing old-school, XIXth or even XVIIIth century politics ; it’s not about crushing your adversary, it’s about accumulating small gains to change the geopolitical balance over the long haul. No, it does not give you this high feeling of vanquishing the opponent ; but it sure as hell does involve a lot less of thermonuclear exchanges.
And besides, it took the Russians two weeks or so to bring in their expeditionary force to Russia last year. They can come back any time, within a week. And nobody will see it coming, exactly like in the first time.
1) I think the hurra patriots comment was not for me, but in any case, note that I mentioned 2 possible scenarios, either a master play or a master doublecross. If it’s the later we will find out in the next months because the partition of siria and the raise in dolar prices will be visible to everyone.
2) Note also that I point out that it was a called shot that surprised everyone. RUS did exactly what they said they would do. That only caught people off guard because we are so used to the doublespeak mumbo jumbo of the zionazis, that we no longer count on people doing what they say.
There is a good article re that topic here: http://russia-insider.com/en/nobody-predicted-russian-withdrawal-except-putin-five-months-ago/ri13381
3) I disagree with your last comment: “And nobody will see it coming, exactly like in the first time.” Impossible. The first time no one thought RUS would challenge USACON hegemon. Now no one doubts it will again if necessary.
The writer makes many well reasoned assumptions but I think misses placing the proper weight on a key observation he acknowledges. This is that behind the Turkish and Saudi involvement sits the master puppeteer the U.S.-Central bankers who have scarcely given up on its main objective which is the supply of Europe with hydro carbon energies by USD friendly puppet regimes. Syria and particularly the Assad regime sit as a road block to this plan and in fact poses an actual threat to USD hegemony under a diametrically opposed Russian backed Iranian energy pipeline also passing through Syria. The re emergence of a Russia for Russians after the U.S.-Central bankers came within a whisker of forever breaking up the new Russian Federation with financial and corporate colonization is a bitter pill they have had to swallow and which they intend to reverse. However, Russia under Putin is not Iran under Mosaddegh. The grand plan of the U.S.-Central bankers is of course the full spectrum domination of the entire planet in their sole interests under neo liberal economic practices manifested on so many fronts against resistors both international and domestic. Syria, Ukraine and S.E. Asia are focal points at this time internationally while supposed global warming religiosity is used to drive agenda domestically under the auspices of the U.N. International Panel on Climate Change and the resulting action plan known under various local names but driven as Agenda 21. Various corporate rights deals like NAFTA and the coming TPP and TIPP cement the Central bankers control over nations under so called trade law which is needed to advance their neo liberal economic agenda while managing any domestic opposition. They have a plan and aim to see it installed under what the Rothschilds have termed “the Red Symphony” of financial collapse to stampede the people accompanied by a big war as the transformative events..
https://youtu.be/plrBZherq_Y
International Military Review – Syria, Mar. 16, 2016 (Arab, Ger Subs)
intresting”
“CIA has ignored intelligence on ISIS since 2013 and could have halted its rise when it only had a handful of recruits, Syrian rebel spy chief claims
Syrian rebel spy chief says the CIA has ignored his operatives’ intelligence
He claimed he has provided GPS coordinates, photos and phone numbers
But when he asked the CIA if they were used, he received ‘zero response’
The spy chief claimed his network received $10,000 a month from the U.S.
For more of the latest Islamic State news visit http://www.dailymail.co.uk/isis
By COREY CHARLTON FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:48, 16 March 2016 | UPDATED: 16:24, 16 March 2016
The CIA has ignored crucial intelligence since 2013 from within ISIS ranks that could have helped prevent its rise, a Syrian rebel spy chief has claimed.
The Free Syrian Army spy boss said he had been sending reports to his CIA contacts for more than two years that included GPS coordinates, ISIS movements, photographs and phone numbers.
His operation – which utilizes 30 operatives placed inside ISIS-controlled cities – was ‘trained abroad’ and received $10,000 per month from the U.S. government, he claimed.
The Free Syrian Army spy chief (not pictured) said the CIA has ignored crucial intelligence that may have helped the stem the rise of ISIS. Pictured are FSA rebel soldiers in Idlib, northwestern Syria
He claimed plans were drawn up for an offensive to remove ISIS from Aleppo (pictured) as early as 2014 only for the U.S. to delay it several times. Eventually, Al Nusra Front launched a counterattack that scuppered it
The spy chief, interviewed by Le Monde and named only as ‘M’, said: ‘From the moment [ISIS] had 20 members to when it had 20,000, we have shown everything to the Americans’, RT reported.
‘When we asked them what they did with this information, they always gave evasive answers, saying it was in the hands of decision-makers.
‘My agents also managed to get hold of phone numbers of ISIS officials, serial numbers of satellite equipment and IP addresses. But once again, zero response.’
Among the intelligence details cited were a photograph and GPS coordinates of a secret ISIS training camp in Latakia Province, Syria.
Another document was 2014 a battle plan designed to expel ISIS from Aleppo. However, it revealed the attack was postponed several times by the U.S. before a counter attack from Al Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front scuppered it.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3494955/CIA-ignored-intelligence-ISIS-2013-halted-rise-handful-recruits-Syrian-rebel-spy-chief-claims.html#ixzz435KQkpOy
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
GENEVA (Sputnik) – The Syrian government delegation calls for the liberation of occupied Syrian territories, including the Golan Heights, delegation leader Bashar Jaafari told Sputnik on Wednesday, disclosing proposals on the political settlement.
Jaafari, who submitted the proposals to Special UN Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, requested the envoy to discuss these proposals with opposition members involved in intra-Syrian negotiations underway in Geneva.
“Another point [of the Basic Proposals] is that we call through the Special Envoy on all of us, the government’s delegation and delegations of the oppositions, to engage into a clear-cut commitment to liberating our occupied territories — the Syrian occupied Golan [Heights], back to the borders of June 1967,” Jaafari said.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160316/1036415304/syria-golan-heights-settlement.html#ixzz435OyHCzN
————————————————–
extract
“Jeffrey Goldberg’s newly published book-length article on Barack Obama and the Middle East includes a major revelation that brings US Secretary of State John Kerry’s Syrian diplomacy into sharper focus: it reports that Kerry has sought on several occasions without success over the past several months to get Obama’s approval for cruise missile strikes against the Syrian government.
That revelation shows that Kerry’s strategy in promoting the Syrian peace negotiations in recent months was based on much heavier pressure on the Assad regime to agree that President Bashar al-Assad must step down than was apparent. It also completes a larger story of Kerry as the primary advocate in the administration of war in Syria ever since he became Secretary of State in early 2013.
Goldberg reports that “on several occasions” Kerry requested that Obama approve missile strikes at “specific regime targets”, in order to “send a message” to Assad – and his international allies – to “negotiate peace”. Kerry suggested to Obama that the US wouldn’t have to acknowledge the attacks publicly, according to Goldberg, because Assad “would surely know the missiles’ return address”.
Goldberg reports that Kerry had “recently” submitted a “written outline of new steps to bring more pressure on Assad”. That is obviously a reference to what Kerry referred to in Senate testimony in February as “significant discussions” within the Obama administration on a “Plan B” to support the opposition that would be more “confrontational”. Kerry made no effort in his testimony to hide the fact that he was the chief advocate of such a policy initiative.
But Goldberg’s account makes it clear that Obama not only repeatedly rejected Kerry’s requests for the use of force, but also decreed at a National Security Council meeting in December that any request for the use of military force must come from his military advisers in an obvious rebuff to Kerry. Immediately after Kerry had suggesting that a “Plan B” was under discussion in the administration, it was a senior Pentagon official who dismissed the idea that any confrontational move was under consideration, including the well-worn idea of a “no-fly zone”.
Kerry’s campaign for cruise missile strikes actually began soon after he became secretary in February 2013. …………………………………..In June 2013, he went to the White House with a paper assuming the truth of the accusations and arguing that, if the United States did not “impose consequences” on Assad over his supposed use of chemical weapons, he would view it as “green light” to continue using them. At a National Security Council Meeting that month, Kerry urged shipments of heavy weapons to the rebels as well as US military strikes, but Obama still said no.
” etc etc
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/chicken-kerry-wanted-syria-strikes-us-wouldnt-take-responsibility/ri13359
Mr,poutine is just make the biggest strategique Trap in Syria for All parties that wanna go for free lunch in Syria. In the north or in the south .in the north is going to end with the decomposition of turkey .and in the south saoudia as country with also marked in the wall .so just go buy bag of pop corne and watch in big scall this two countries changing .poutine like wild hunting .
I don’t quite know how to write this…but I will have a go anyway…
If the competition comes down to
Hillary Rodham Clinton vs Donald John Trump vs Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
I think I know a large percentage of Americans would vote for the Russian…
but is there something else going on here…that I do not yet understand???
unless you ask all of the questions and try and find answers then you have already gone to sleep.
So because Putin was Time Magazine of the Year..and it was only 2 years ago (2014 – and I thought no it can’t be that recent) – so I checked within the last few seconds..and Putin has apparently been relegated to Number 2 – on the evidence of my google search – retrospectively – the Americans edited all the links – in all the sources they could find…
Can’t they play chess, do karate or judo???
What is the matter with these Americans??
They used to be quite fit.
Tony
Despite the physical obesity rampant in the land, It is fundamentally a matter of moral and mental flabbiness that afflicts America. That is not the nature of Americans. That is their present condition. Ignorance and cowardice are rampant.
A very large portion of Americans are under deep occult mind control and no longer care for any higher concerns than their own immediate comfort and survival. Biologically, the higher functions of their brains have been disabled (TV alone will do that……) and only the R Complex of the brain is operative. R= Reptilian, ie fight or flight instinct. Envision a few hundred million lizards either basking on top of a rock or hiding under it.
Others still have the mammalian brain (lymbic system) functioning, and somewhat fewer even have the left brain (intellect, Sacred Male Principle) and right brain (Sacred Feminine Principle, Love, True Care) functioning reasonably well.
That’s the spiritual lay of the land, my American brothers and sisters. That’s what we have to work with.
The usual enemies of Rusdia are very very happy and reassured by this latest move of Russia, so what does that tell you.? RUSSIAN success?
Or syrian success? , it is not Russian withdrawal but the manner it is indecently hastened up with a day of surprsie announcement without even Assad being ibformed initially raises the question.
Let us see the pattern here
Before Russia agreed to UNSC santions against Libya this Fm Lavrov was lecturing Libya to bring so called reforms etc in other words he was ready to betray Libya.
In many of Iran, syrian and libyan sanctions this kavrov _initially denying western appraoxh-turned opposite and did put Russian aroval on Un sanctions agaibst Russian allies.
Now only last week both lavrov and chuchkin were audacious enough to lecture Assad the democratic cally ekected president of Syria,
Lavrov was very rude to Assad.
But the same lavrov is very so called polite to the Anglo enemies of Russia even at the middle of angkos war on rusdia-not because he is polite but because he is bootlicking his Anglo masters.
That has been pattern with this traitor fir years.
Lavrov is like last FMinister of soveit union severzenade who stayed too long to destroy Soviet Union.
See the time sequence –
Mig 21 of syrian plane is brought diwn by western supplied surface to air missiles.
Rumour is that western terrorusts have been given a lot of more potent sams.
Lavrov says that Rusdia has proof of turks incursion inside syrian land.
The very next day Russia declares withdrawal of ground and some airplanes.
All look very suspiciously like betrayal of Assad by Russia on evd of negotiation as if weaking of Assad position was the aim.
Read more at http://syrianperspective.com/2016/03/mission-accomplished-dr-assad-declares-victory-agrees-to-phased-withdrawal-of-russian-air-force-terrorist-enemy-devastated.html#YoTZbdjaj5y6t4KQ.99
a minor point but…..with some-?-Daesh ISIl members probably rapidly evacuating Syria going back to home countries, this gives Rus an opportunity to pick them on their return, the so far quoted 2,500 Russians being thus individually targeted and more cheaply than some bombing campaign in Syria where there is a risk of being accused of “war crimes”……I do hope that the cache of 55000 pages of Daesh membership, connections, networks etc sky news recieved this week can be made available to Rus to help counter act the home grown terrorists………..
eg
“Several Daesh-linked militants were detained and explosives were found during a special operation in Russia’s North Caucasus Republic of Dagestan.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The Russian law enforcement agencies have detained a group of Daesh-linked militants who have been preparing terrorist attacks in Russia’s North Caucasus Republic of Dagestan, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) said Thursday.”
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160317/1036437022/dagestan-daesh.html#ixzz439BH8BLw
GENEVA, March 17. /TASS/. Discussions with opposition members from the Riyadh group (the High Negotiations Committee – HNC) are possible, if their supporters agree to lay down arms, Ilian Masaad who heads the delegation of the internal Syrian opposition in Geneva that came to be known as the Hmeimim group has told TASS.
“If they say that we stop here and that it is necessary to lay down arms,” he said when asked whether the Hmeimim group was ready for contacts with the HNC. “I cannot talk with someone who puts a pistol to my head.”
Masaad noted that HNC representatives had never tried to get in touch with the internal moderate opposition. “They have never tried to talk with us,” he said. “They were created exclusively for this crisis. When the United States and Russia said that this was the end, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar show through the Riyadh group that they do not want this.”
READ ALSO
Hmeimim group of Syrian opposition agrees with Russia’s decision to withdraw forces
Nine settlements in Syria join national reconciliation process in Hama province
Opposition says Assad must bear responsibility for Syrian situation
On the other hand, Masaad did not rule out contacts with the Moscow-Cairo group. “I met with Jamil [one of the leaders of the Moscow-Cairo group – TASS] and told him, “You, Kassis [Randa Kassis, a representative of the Syrian opposition group that joined forces after a conference in Astana], Kurds, we and even the government’s National Progressive Front – all this is Syria. And all others are terrorists,” he said.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/863026
this is interesting too, as I had thought, the Rus organised/initiated Syrian “opposition” is coming up strong against the HNC saudi based ‘moderate opposition”……………read an article -if i could find it again-how extremely proactive and very hard work(at some risk too) Rus has been in seeking out the various opposition groups, negotiating with them to sign up to ceasefire–I really think this has not been acknowledged in full as part of Rus’s success, and probably? doing a whole lot more behind the scenes to strengthen this group and support it, can anyone check?.
eg
“AYN-ELBET (Syria), March 17. /TASS/. Nine settlements in Syria’s Hama province have signed agreements on joining the process of national reconciliation and ceasefire regime, head of the reconciliation group in Hama Lt. Col. German Rudenko told reporters on Thursday.
“Today’s event was attended by elders, leaders of tribal communities. They signed the agreement on joining the ceasefire regime by nine settlements with total population of around 10,000 people,” Rudenko said.
© Valery Sharifulin/TASS
After 5 years of war: from Western Kurdistan do Damascus
He noted that elders agreed for the state authorities to return to their settlements and assist the Syrian government in any possible way at peace negotiations. They also agreed to promote laying down arms and returning to peaceful life among their fellow countrymen on the other side barricades.
“Participants in the negotiations first of all expect social guarantees from the authorities. Many of them have no income or access to medicine. They are waiting for restoration of basic utilities and infrastructure,” Rudenko went on.
Syria’s MP Sheikh Marwan al-Asad, who signed one of the application lists, noted the importance of joining the ceasefire regime by the settlements located close to the contact line with militant groups. “I represent the eastern part of this region. My settlements are located in 30 kilometers from the contact line with armed militant groups. We are grateful to Russia and everyone else who helped made our land safer. This is very important for us as we leave in close proximity from terrorist strongholds,” he said.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/862994
Also a call yesterday by Syrian minister that must be no foreign troops /occupation on Syrian territory is part of this………….ah here is link I had posted elsewheres again
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160316/1036415304/syria-golan-heights-settlement.html#ixzz435OyHCzN
“GENEVA (Sputnik) – The Syrian government delegation calls for the liberation of occupied Syrian territories, including the Golan Heights, delegation leader Bashar Jaafari told Sputnik on Wednesday, disclosing proposals on the political settlement.”
“GENEVA, March 17. /TASS/. The Hmeimim group of the Syrian opposition agrees with the withdrawal of Russian Aerospace Defense Forces from Syria and understands the reasons behind this decision, the group’s leader Ilian Masaad told TASS on Thursday.
“As for me, I agree with this approach,” Masaad said. “National reconciliation means the end of military actions,” he added. “It was important to make some kind of positive gesture toward those people that are against [Syrian President Bashar] Assad,” he noted.
Masaad said that the need for presence of Russian military forces in Syria has decreased as a result of the ceasefire agreement signed by several armed opposition groups. “The forces that were against the government, for instance the 41st brigade, signed an agreement saying they are ready to ceasefire and embark on the path of reconciliation. There is no need to bomb them,” he added.
Masaad leads the delegation of internal Syrian opposition at Geneva talks which became known as the Hmeimim group.
According to TASS, the Hmeimim group includes doctors, lawyers, engineers, journalists, social activities representing the Syrian organization National Action, Democratic Action in Syria movement, Secular Democracy organization, National Youth and Syrian Fatherland parties, as well as the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and others.
Ilian Masaad is Doctor of Laws, general secretary of the National Conference party that supports unified secular state, democratic activist, official representative of the Syrian National Workers’ Party.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/863019
and
GENEVA, March 17. /TASS/. The Hmeimim group of the Syrian opposition is ready for direct contacts with representatives of the Syrian government at Geneva talks, the group’s leader Ilian Masaad told TASS on Thursday.
“We are ready to hold direct talsk,” Masaad said. “We have held several meetings with representatives of the Syrian government in the unofficial format,” he added noting that “there were never any official meetings.”
According to Ilian Masaad, Syrian President Bashar Assad enjoys considerable support in the country, and calls for his resignation are destroying the country.
“Problems with current people from Riyadh [Syrian opposition group formed after the meeting in Riyadh] have been the same over the last five years. They say that Asad should go. But half of Syrians are with him. What are such calls doing? Destroying Syria,” Masaad said.
“They think that the US army should come to help them kill Assad while we will get a car, a bureau and a presidential palace. But this option does not exist. It’s fake,” he went on.
Elections should be held in order to end the war, Masaad said. “Assad is a Syrian, and he will decide on whether he will take part in the election or not. If he wants to run in the election – it is his right to do so,” he added.
New parliamentary election should follow adoption of new Syrian constitution
The Hmeimim group of the Syrian opposition intends to prepare a new draft constitution, and they already have a program for overcoming the crisis which will be presented to UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura.
“We will present several documents [to de Mistura],” Masaad said.
“We have a program for overcoming this crisis. We have other projects as well. We are trying to decide now how to prepare a draft of the new democratic and secular Constitution that will be suitable for everyone,” he added. “Without this, we will not stop the current insane bloodshed,” Masaad noted.
The meeting between the Hmeimim group and de Mistura is planned for March 18.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/862997
———————————————————
but note HNC are still? claiming to be the only opposition with the rights to sit at negotiating table????
GENEVA, March 17. / TASS /. Representative of the Jaysh al-Islam group Mohammad Alloush will remain part of the Syrian opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC) despite Damascus’ position, HNC adviser Bader Jamous said on Thursday.
“What [head of Syrian government’s delegation at Geneva talks and Syria’s Ambassador to UN Bashar] Jaafari demanded from Mohammed Alloush will definitely not be done,” Jamous said adding that “Alloush will remain a leader of the delegation to the negotiations.”
According to Jamous, the delegation of the High Negotiations Committee has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry on the issue of possible contacts.
READ ALSO
Participation of Jaysh al-Islam in Syria talks does not mean group’s recognition – Lavrov
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Moscow insists Jaysh al-Islam, Ahrar ash-Sham must be on list of terrorist groups in Syria
“Two days ago I contacted Mr Bogdanov [Russia’s presidential envoy on the Middle East and North Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov], heard positive response from him, and I hope that something will happen soon,” Jamous said adding that he means ” both contacts and complete withdrawal of forces from Syria. ”
The delegation is ready for direct talks with representatives of the Syrian government.
“We’ve already had direct talks at Geneva-2, therefore, their organization will not be difficult,” he said. “We hope for direct talks and are ready for them.”
“We have received an official response [from UN envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura] that we are the only delegation that will be sitting at the table of negotiations on Syria,” he said.
“All Syrian nationals have the right to be in Geneva, to meet with de Mistura, but they have no right to be present at negotiations,” he said.”
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/863131
that seems to very much at odds with the Hmeimim group indeed………………one to watch out for?
latest
getting desperate or determined by any means to get their way???
“GENEVA, March 18 / TASS /. The High Negotiations Council, the Riyadh-formed Syrian opposition body, believes that Moscow should stop supporting the Damascus government, HNC official Spokesman Salem al-Mouslad told journalists on Friday.
We do not want to talk of what was yesterday. We want to discuss what is happening today or will happen tomorrow, “Salem al-Mouslad said when asked what he thought about the withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Syria.
He added that the HNC was waiting for positive solutions from Russia. If they really want to resolve the Syrian problem, they should do it immediately, Salem al-Mouslad said.
“For our part, we want to see Russia as a good friend of the Syrian people but not of its regime. We really want to return to good relations,” the HNC spokesman stressed.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/863480
need to keep an eye on these…….or maybe saying to USA , use us to knock Rus out of the scene is the feeling I get………hope the guy that did th fab article on who is who in Syria can keep us updated.
further to last post
“Thanks to the actions of our air and space forces in fact undermined the military and political base of the terrorists, “- said Lukyanov. “It is clear that no one aims to defeat terrorism only by military means – it is impossible, even if it will be a joint effort of many countries. The fight against terrorism is complex. First of all, it is necessary to undermine its social base “, – Deputy Security Council Secretary said.
The number of settlements, with chapters which reached an agreement on reconciliation – 51. to continue consultations with the leaders of four opposition political parties and movements operating in Syria. Discussed problematic issues of progress and reconciliation solutions.
The number of armed groups that have declared their commitment to the cessation of hostilities conditions – 42.
In general, the cessation of hostilities observed. The number of violations with the use of heavy weapons has decreased.
At the same time per day recorded 10 violations of the cessation of hostilities (Aleppo – 4, Latakia – 3, Idlib, Homs and Hama – 1). A day earlier, it recorded 15 violations of the cessation of hostilities. In the provinces (Damascus – 6, Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs – 2, Latakia – 1).
The Russian FSI and Syrian Air Force opposition armed groups, have declared a cessation of hostilities and to report to the Russian or American centers reconciliation information about your location , strikes are not applied.
With the mediation of the Russian Center for reconciliation of the warring parties, the regular meeting of representatives of opposition parties and movements, as well as well-known public figures to Syria. They discussed social and political issues relating to the cessation of hostilities in the country. The participants were in favor of respect for the sovereignty and unity of Syria, the rejection of any form of foreign intervention and the continuation of the fight against terrorism.
There was a meeting in a telephone conference call mode between the leadership of the focal points of the Russian (airbase “Hmeymim”) and American (Amman, Jordan) sides. US officials gave details of violations of the cessation of hostilities.
The sides noted a significant decrease in the number of violations of the cessation of hostilities with the use of heavy weapons.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State John Kerry, during which it was agreed to build cooperation between the two countries to overcome the Syrian crisis.
“Sergey Lavrov said that Putin’s decision to pull out of Syria, the main part of group videoconferencing Russia, to complete the task, creates a favorable atmosphere for the start in Geneva mezhsiriyskih negotiations, during which Syrians themselves must decide the future of their state “, – reported the press service of the foreign Ministry after the talks.
Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone conversation with the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Dzhubeyrom. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Dzhubeyr praised the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria as “a very positive step.”
extract from very long and detailed Syrian summary very well worth a read at
http://www.anna-news.info/node/54989
eg
“Turkish” Newspaper Northern Anatolia “(” Kuzeyanadolugazetesi “) has published a copy of a secret circular MIA , which indicated that the Turkish state has “full support” of a terrorist organization “Dzhebhat en-Nusra”, including the transfer of militants of the organization ( “the majority” of the Chechens and Tunisians) through Turkey and treatment of the wounded “mujahideen”. ”
but google translate as usual
note Lavrov and MFA Saudi conversations……..yes , with that Minister, who seems to have been behind a whole lotta “trouble making” we have surmised……………..
“It is noted that al-Dzhubeyr reiterated the support of Saudi Arabia, additional measures to ensure compliance with the cessation of hostilities”
Sun Tzu says:
“All warfare is based on deception.”
“Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.”
“Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.”
“What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations.”
The NATO-GCC Empire has an extreme inclination to declare Russia as weak, crumbling, scared and on the brink of collapse. They can always be fooled by Russia feigning weakness. I am guessing that it will take NATO another 5-10 years to realize that Russia is not that weak anymore, by which time, chances are that Russia will be more powerful than she is now. Anyway, back to my original point which is that Russia feigning weakness always works in the current Global War.
The fact is, that once the major installation targets of ISIS/AQ/FSA were hammered by the RuAF, the value of targets has gone down for the RuAF, facing the age-old process of diminishing returns. It’s now up to NATO-GCC-ISR to try and rebuild their rat-stocks, if they so choose, then the RuAF can always return and in even greater strength.
Also, the point made by the writer, namely that Putin may be expecting a massive escalation on the part of Turkey-GCC (with the West and Israel in support mode) is not at all outlandish. The stakes are extremely high in the current Middle Eastern War and neither side will be willing to go down silently into the night.
Stavro H: you said that “It’s now up to NATO-GCC-ISR to try and rebuild their rat-stocks”, if they so choose, then the RuAF can always return and in even greater strength”.
Now how prophetic is that? (and been exactly my thinking all along) given that just now…..
According to RT’s latest news update – President Vladimir Putin speaking to Russia’s armed forces has announced that “they may be “redeployed” back to Syria in “a matter of hours” should “they be needed” there if the ceasefire fails.
And that all Syrian bases there are secured and continue to be “protected”.
Just as I expected, his “withdrawal” was nothing more then a brilliant tactical Sun Tze “don’t move an inch forward and step one foot back from your opponents battle lines” maneuver.
Thus the whole “pull out” exercise was but a strategic buff disguised as a good faith gesture while the “Peace” talks in Geneva commence. And denied the US and it’s allies any pretext or excuses for not going along with it.
He’s now letting everyone know loud and clear, but don’t try and pull any punches on me, abusing them of any delusional fantasizes that they might have had of pulling a fast one fast on Syria now that he’s stepped back a foot.
A slick move being a master of the martial arts that he is.
I would like to be a fly on the walls of the Pentagon and the White house now, and witness the perplexed and contorted red faces on the generals, Obama, Kerry and staff as they realize that he’s already two steps ahead and totally got their number.
And I can already hear the shrill shrieks that will be coming from all of the media freaks within hours, proclaiming they’ve been had and betrayed again by RusPutin.
Bravo Vladimir Putin and long live Russia and Syria!
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-western-elites-playtime-over/ri761
extract from Dimitry Orlov article:re Pres. Putin speech at Valdai Club few days ago, can be summarised as
1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.
2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.
3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia’s decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.
4. Russia favors a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.
5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America’s ever-expanding “empire of chaos,” and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia’s challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.
6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.
7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.
8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia’s key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.
9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia’s power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.
To these nine points I would like to add a tenth:
10. There is still a chance to construct a new world order that will avoid a world war. This new world order must of necessity include the United States—but can only do so on the same terms as everyone else: subject to international law and international agreements; refraining from all unilateral action; in full respect of the sovereignty of other nations.
To sum it all up: play-time is over. Children, put away your toys. Now is the time for the adults to make decisions. Russia is ready for this; is the world?”
—————————————————
http://russia-insider.com/en/its-not-about-assad-and-never-was/ri13368
article of who killed who by whom in Syria, eg 60000Syrian troops died fighting”moderate opposition” and ISIL etc etc
“Syria Death Toll Beyond the Numbers: Who Died, Who Killed Them and Why
Western media is using the reported number of 250,000 war dead as if they were all civilian victims of the government – which is far from truth”
———————————————————–
As per the usual : views on this latest announcement are somewhat polarized.
There are a few interesting points, the first being timing. The announcement seems to be hinged on factors such as estimated mission duration, Turkish entropy within its borders, further bargaining talk (peace…?) , proxy sponsors appearing to regroup, SAA resupply and training achievements, and a slew of other geopolitical elements (elections, escalations etc..)
There would appear to be quite a bit of back room dealing which I imagine is conveyed in “no uncertain terms”. One can only guess.
Ordering partial withdrawal is indeed a loaded phrase when presented to the media jackals. The inverse is ofcourse that the infrastructure remains and the move is in part gestural: we’ve done as we would…you? The proxy sponsors have been oxposed for the most part, and the viewers are waiting to see what they will do..cue the spotlight. This will buy Russia more political capital.
If it were me , I’d use it as bait. Step back observe and watch the shuffle.
It’s clear that precise force can be applied at a moments notice….
Putin indicates in today’s news that the Air Forces can return in a few hours if necessary.
I suspect that all nations understand that Russia has not left Syria. A Calibre missile can return in twenty minutes.
Turkey has transgressed several hundred meters into Syria.
Kurds have been supplied by Russia. Larger weaponry can follow on within hours.
Saudi alliances are worth spit.The notion of Turkey-Gulf States waging a war in Syria in first person, non-proxy terms is laughable.
Obama now has to shit or get off the pot. Take Raqqa or leave it. The US generals are talking a ground war using a few thousand special operators. That seems unrealistic. What proxy army exists as cannon fodder to fight with the US in order to take Raqqa?
Putin has left all the adversaries with untenable options and no strategy victory possible.
Mr,poutine is just add new factors to the game in Syria .and he is the only one that know the conclusion of this mess
1- turkey ardoghan is felling the need to do somting and is preparing the invasion of the north of Syria .like saoudia Arabia Wahhabi empire is planning to do in the south .they are addicted to this action to survive in the near future
In the future Constantinople is going to be liberated from turkey.by muslume army ( Kurd and others Muslim groups) .
2- Arabia saoudite is not going to survive the new dynamic in the region .why because Russia is becaming the biggest supplier of oil to China .so as resulte ,you are observing in real scal the collapse of the oil money .
The war in Syria is direct plan of the God to punish Saoudis and turkey for there brutality .
Russia is Rumm .is the one that has all good cards in hand .the Truth .
mr,Poutine is The new King of the weak in this word.
Let me test this idea:
Strategic withdrawal is covered by the quantifiable statement that “mission accomplished.” This would also enhance the Russian position supporting a peace through diplomacy, ie it’s hard to convince that peace talks is preferred while you still have an on-alert fighting force in theater. Pulling them back now defuses the demonizing claims of Russian aggression and empire building by the Western countries. It also hands them enough rope to hang themselves should they see this as a sign of Russia’s weaker hand, and an opportunity to resume the “assad must go” agenda with balkanization of Syria. IOW, they talk of peaceful resolution, and now they expose their true colors if they don’t follow through.
Precisely.
The “Mission: Accomplished” declarations are nothing but a cynical and even sarcastic allusion to previous claims made by US Administrations. All of us know, and first of all Putin and his advisers that Mission Is Not Accomplished.
Like I said from the first minute of this “withdrawal”
1. It’s partly a feint. NATO-GCC cannot possibly get away from the mindset that “Russia is nearing the end of her tether under sanctions and low oil prices and is about to kick the bucket” With this in mind, Russia can always feign weakness, and succeed. Not totally of course, but some effect is always guaranteed.
2. The RuAF can always return virtually instantaneously if the need arises.
3. Significant Air Power etc is any case still there.
4. The feint also involves giving the impression (again by catering to NATO-GCC biases & propaganda) that Russia, Iran and Assad have their differences. Again, Western “analysts” are always extremely prone to get it wrong on this matter.
5. It’s almost certain that serious threats were made against Russia behind closed doors by the NATO-GCC mandarins. This makes the feint all the more potent.
6. The ceasefire in conjunction with the “withdrawal” gives Russia the time to adjust and plan her subsequent moves and counter-moves. Multiple scenarios are here at play, such as: a) NATO-GCC providing their Jihadis with SAMs, b) Some provocations/moves by TUR/KSA/etc in and around Syria. c) Potential false flags and how to react to them, since NATO-GCC can’t help themselves otherwise.
In light of the above, Russia must pull a little bit back, see how her mortal enemies react to this and then re-catch them by surprise. I am sure that Russia has potential responses to the possible future moves of the NATO-GCC clique.
An interesting take I hadn’t considered, Stavros. I caught the example that Putin was making by stating what the objectives were (not to include occupation) and being forthright to pull back once they were completed, “generally” speaking. It was strategic, but not a total pull out, which should be carefully considered by those wondering about this “surprising” course of action. They make the fatal mistake if they misinterpret this as retreat or weakness in which to act with impunity, regardless of previous discussion and/or agreements. If nothing else, what Putin has done could very well precipitate a fire storm of internal Pentagon/ White House conflict between the factions, and God knows how that will end up, this late in the game with the lame duck Obama.