Mark Sleboda is, as always, superb. As for the other guy, well, the best I can say for him is that he is “typical” and leave it at that :-)
Saker Message:
Mark Sleboda is, as always, superb. As for the other guy, well, the best I can say for him is that he is “typical” and leave it at that :-)
So is this the big offensive everyone was talking about? Taking back Nubel and cutting of the supply route to the northern terrorsits or was this just the prelude to the big offensive?
Big offensives is in closing the 3 border crossings. Lavrov said that would be the time for a cease fire not before they are under Syrian government control. At least 1 would involve direct confrontation with Turkish troops.
I don’t really see why cutting off the supplies would mean victory for Syria, there are many regions inside Syrian territory that has been cutt of for years and still not defeated, such as the Rastan pocket.
War is about logistics at some point.
No reinforcements, no resupply and the other guy wins.
Yeah, but there are plenty of areas in Syria that has been cut off for years, and SAA has not conquered those. Not saying it is not important or effective to cut an area off, but it doesn’t necessarily seem decisive either.
Sun Tzu teaches that most generals think tactics, good generals think strategy, the greatest generals think logistics.
What is happening in Syria is a ‘positional conflict’. When most people think of warfare they think of hardened locations in a line with troops on the opposing side also lined up. The reality is that these types of conflict have very seldom occurred in history. The more normal form of conflict is hardened positions under nominal control with a ‘no mans land’ in between that is owned by none but monitored by both parties to identify thrusts. The no mans land can be very small – as in the case of Germany’s advance into Russia in WWII, or it can be very large as in the US’s experience in Vietnam.
In this case here, there were/are hardened Syrian positions the terrorists are unable to penetrate but the Syrian side is/are unable to control the countryside effectively – allowing DAESH to effectively disrupt the logistics flow of the SAA. In order for the SAA to retake those large swathes of territory still under DAESH control they must ensure several factors are in place:
1. The rear of the SAA must be protected to ensure logistics flow for the SAA.
2. The SAA must have the ability to control the countryside, and the manpower to do so.
3. The SAA must have the ability to conduct logistics flow and protect that flow.
4. The logistics flow to DAESH must be effectively destroyed (the Turk border)
5. Once each area has been cleared, the SAA must ensure that DAESH has no chance to reform behind them – this will require a very substantial intelligence operation.
Cheers!
“Syria Talks: Fear and Loathing in Geneva” by Yuri Barmin
After a week of confusion and failed attempts to bring warring sides to the table, Syria peace talks that had begun in Geneva on January 25 2016 were suspended till late February on Thursday. This may be a much-needed break that may help prevent the wider negotiating process from being derailed. In other words the battle is lost but the war is not over.
While the Syrian government arrived in Geneva in time for talks and held several meetings with Steffan De Mistura, the Higher Negotiating Committee (HNC), a Saudi-backed opposition bloc, held its first informal meeting with UN negotiators on February 1. Notably, the opposition demanded that airstrikes be halted and political prisoners be released for the negotiations to go further. These demands, however, contradicted what Russia and the United States promised on January 15 when Secretary of State Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov announced talks in Geneva with no preconditions.
From the beginning it was clear that not only Syrian parties but their international backers as well were not on the same page about the goals of peace talks. In the week up to February 3 a few notable developments took place in and around Syria that may potentially alter the balance of power. The pause may help everyone touch base with their partners and assess the new status quo.
In other major developments, the Syrian Army backed by Hezbollah as well as IRGC forces and supported by Russian airstrikes managed to end a three-year siege of Nubul and Zahraa, two Shia towns north of Aleppo on February 3. This means that the Syrian forces have cut rebels’ lifeline to Turkey, their northern supply route. The looming success of the Aleppo operation largely explains why the Russia-Turkey crisis intensified in late January. What cutting Aleppo off from Turkey essentially means is that without a constant supply of reinforcement from the north the rebel movement in the area is likely to choke very soon.
The temporary pause in the Geneva talks gives the Syrian Army and its backer three weeks to further weaken rebels in Aleppo, which is now going to be easier to achieve. Syria and Russia have essentially bought themselves time to try and make rebels more desperate, hence pressure them into being more cooperative once the talks resume. At least now the Aleppo blockade is a lever that can be used against the HNC in Geneva.
Contradictions that were identified as a result of the talks in Geneva, including the prospects of PYD’s participation and a possible humanitarian ceasefire, will need to be resolved during the “Vienna format” meeting in Munich on February 11. The talks between major powers and backers of opposing sides in the Syrian conflict will show whether the Assad government and the HNC at all need to return to Geneva for another round of negotiations.
http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=7206#top-content
Who to believe? A passionate bear speaking from Moscow or a dispassionate snake from London?
Reminds me of the good old days when a passionate Jesus undressed scribes and pharisees, a young man who also told the Roman emperor he had no clothes.
I hear tell he loved vineyards, women, children and Syrian wine. The snakes of the time left that out of their holy books as much as they could.
“Reminds me of the good old days”
You were around at Jesus time? Really man, what are you talking about?…
Turkey is not planning a military incursion into Syria and Russian talk of such action is propaganda, a senior Turkish government official said on Friday.
“Turkey does not have any plans or thoughts of staging a military campaign or ground incursion in Syria,” the official told Reuters, adding Russia was stepping up its own military campaign in Syria every day instead of working for a solution.
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_official-russian-talk-of-turkish-incursion-in-syria-is-propaganda_411527.html
Baghdad Bob has a new job in Turkey, does he?
mama did not raise no fools..
Last week SyAF Mig29’s went on 24×7
Now this…
RuMOD: Su-35Ss are held in pairs around the clock at the air base Hmeymim (Syria), in 1 min readiness for takeoff.
Keeping their engines hot and pilots in the planes must take a huge toll to be ready for war any time…
Only time this happens is when expecting an imminent attack. Wont be caught with their pants down.
With Russia now officially accusing Turkey of planning an invasion of Syria, I think Mark Sleboda is absolutely right that things are coming to a head. The goal of the Russian intervention clearly was to enable the Syrian Arab Army and the Kurds to cut the logistical supply line of the insurgents. With the Kurds poised to do this – although it’s not yet certain they will, certainly they are being pressed to do so by Russia and Syria, if not the US – Turkey has to either escalate or back down.
The real question is: If Turkey invades Syria, even for only 50-100 miles, what will Russia do? Because if Turkey does invade, the war will go on and the Russian/Syrian/Kurdish moves will be to no avail. As far as I can see, Russia has to prevent this Turkish invasion, and this is why Russia is moving NOW to accuse Turkey of it before it even occurs.
But if it does occur, what moves can Russia do to either stop it, or reverse it, or limit its effects? I’ve yet to see anyone analyze that.
Probably the reason no one has,is because the answer is unthinkable for them to say out loud. What should be done is for the Russians to “decimate” the invading force. Along with the Syrian army ,pound them with everything short of nuclear weapons.Bomb them to dust.Grad them mercilessly.And use all the other artillery and tank resources they have to utterly destroy the invading force and send the survivors fleeing in terror back across the border.A huge object lesson needs to be delivered to the Turks and their NATO “friends”.Will that lead to WW3? No one knows for certain. It depends on the level of insanity in the West. Have they truly signed up for a suicide pact or not. But regardless,it would need to be done.An invasion can’t be allowed to succeed. If it can succeed. It will set a precedent for the West to use over and over again.They got away with in in Libya,they got away with it in Iraq. Now if they get away with it in Syria. It will give them the confidence to eventually use that tactic against Russia (through Ukraine or Georgia),and finally against China. Allowing bad precedents to be set are always the wrong idea to follow.
Exactly!
I could not say it better myself!
It has already occurred. It happened on 25 January 2016, Ergogangster’s hordes invaded Syria through Jarablus.
It has been amply documented, even in reputable sources, such as The Jerusalem Post.
The only sensible response is bombing them in Syria. An influx of coffins seems to be the only thing that Erdogangster *will* understand.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/02/05/448832/Syria-Russia-Saudi-Arabia
Saudi military intervention in Syria amounts to war: Russian deputy
A Russian deputy has warned Saudi Arabia that any military ground operation in Syria without the Damascus government’s consent amounts to a declaration of war.
“Syria has to give official consent, to invite, otherwise it will be a war. The same applies to international law,” Pavel Krasheninnikov, the head of the State Duma committee, told Interfax on Friday.
I still say this is classic 180 degree misdirection & propaganda.
The whole premise itself is laughable.
In the ‘official release’, it gives it away stating the Saudis “as part of a US-led force”, meaning this will be a token Saudi presence in a soon coming US/ZATO invasion of YEMEN.
Does every western puk have to add in his 2 bits of krappola into the mix??? Does not matter how distinguished. Their s*** smells of roses.. It must be for every single one of them to add in their own delusions on reality. The more distinguished the easier they indicate it is their rose smelling s*** in there between analysis and reports.. Unlike the true propagandist who just hope you don’t notice the smell and think you ripped a big one without knowing.
Information without a political agenda.. Yo dude.. Your s*** stinks as well professor. That expensive grey poopon don’t mask the smell..
Also remember, at most at the very high end, less than 5000 hez fighters, 5000 Iraqi fighters and 5000 all other shia allied Iranian, afghan, Pakistani fighters.. You would think by the sound of things these guys have dozens of divisions in Syria with armor and motorized brigades instead of Toyotas. Fighting against US, EU, GCC and every other puk on the planet.. Israel should be scared.. If under 20,000 of these shia allied fighters can take on the world and trash their proxy mercenaries with unlimited funds and arms.. Syrian defense budget.. US$ 1 billion.. I think the pirates of sudan have a higher budget.. The US and EU should be scared as well.. These guys would make the mighty Nazi army look like boy scouts and drop kick nato back across the English channel.. So behave..
All that money wasted in western public education school system.. Should have wasted it on some goud shiet.. At least it would have made everyone feel good instead of stupid.
Russian-Led forces Advance to Secure Syrian Borders With Turkey and Jordan
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 24
De Mistura expressed hope the talks will soon resume, but there is no letup in the Russian aerial bombardments clearing the way for al-Assad loyalists to push on and totally eliminate the opposition to win the Syrian civil war. This has been the overall strategic objective of Russia’s military intervention in Syria from the beginning, while Moscow’s involvement in the Geneva peace talks was never more than a smokescreen. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists: “Russian strikes will not cease until we really defeat terrorist organizations [Moscow considers any armed opposition to al-Assad as ‘terrorist.’]. I don’t see why these air strikes should be stopped.” A ceasefire in Syria, according to Lavrov, may happen only after the Turkish-Syrian border “is closed to contraband that is supporting the [opposition] fighters.” Lavrov announced that Moscow has fulfilled its obligations to put pressure on Damascus to make peace: The al-Assad delegation arrived in Geneva “without any problems,” and now it is time for the West and regional sponsors of the opposition to do likewise (Mid.ru, February 3).
Massive Russian bombing has softened up the Syrian opposition defenses. Al-Assad forces, supported by Iranian and Hezbollah fighters, have been successful in pushing forward on different fronts in Syria, dislodging the opposition from positions they had successfully held during years of fighting. In particular, al-Assad forces have been advancing north of Aleppo, cutting supply lines to the Turkish border 50 kilometers north, apparently preparing to fully encircle and eventually take the city (Rg.ru, February 3). A Russian-led offensive also continues in northern Latakia province and in Idlib, with the stated purpose to defeat the rebels and “close” the Turkish border. At the same time, another Russian-led offensive is developing in the south: al-Assad forces are pressing from the provincial capital Daraa to the Jordanian border, with Russian bombers leading the way, according to Russian war correspondents on the spot (Kp.ru, February 4). Securing both the Turkish and Jordanian borders will, apparently, choke off the lifeline of the armed opposition in the north and south, leading to President al-Assad’s overall victory.
Thousands will be killed, hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Syrian civilians will be pushed over the border into exile. But the prize Moscow is seeking is of huge value: securing Syria as a joint Russo-Iranian protectorate and military/political powerbase in the eastern Mediterranean. In addition, a Russian-imposed solution of the Syrian crisis could further undermine the United States’ waning influence in the Middle East. Another bonus: millions more Syrian refugees could further destabilize the European Union and Turkey, possibly toppling governments in Berlin and Ankara that Moscow does not like. This could be a win-win situation, especially if Russian losses continue to stay low.
……………I give up, I just cant read more of this krap to copy here…
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45060&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=7ed30f02a9abc1aa71adcf2013c2b51e#.VrS85eh_Oko
@mmiriww
Your comments bring lyrics to mind :
If I, if I get you
If I get you in my site
Boom, Boom out go the lights……
There is no cure for stupid.
Someone mentioned this in a comment here yesterday.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941116000012
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:35
Strange Times: Pentagon Talks up Conflicts with Iran, Russia, China, North Korea
TEHRAN (FNA)- It could happen today or tomorrow. Maybe in the years to come. But potential conflicts with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are inevitable. That’s what the Pentagon says in its new budget request from the US Congress!
True, the Pentagon budget request for 2017 centres on the ever-escalating ISIL war, also known as the Bogus War on Terror. But still it wouldn’t hurt Secretary of Defense Ash Carter to also hit all the other key touchstones to emphasize the possibility of wars against Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. After all, what’s not to like?
Carter is free to term Russia and China “stressing competitors” for the United States. He can even talk up protecting Latvia from a fictitious Russian invasion or preparing to fighting China over artificial islands. Likewise, he is free to hit all of the usual talking points to include North Korea to add more billions to the bottom line. But mentioning Iran in his strange $582.7 budget request? Well, it just doesn’t make sense at all. Or does it? Well, let’s look into it more closely:
Things have changed in the World (for the worse) with the rise of the US empire. In past days when talking about the USSR (and in different times other countries) the US would talk “hypothetically” about the “possibilities” of war.Today the US and its stooges blatantly talk of war against Russia. In those other days they “knew their limits” and knew if they “riled” the Soviets “too much” they’d get that war. In which case the West would become a flaming husk. So they “knew better”.These fools today think they have no limits. And they freely open their “pie-holes” talking of war.They are too stupid to realize people on the “other side” can hear them.And maybe,just maybe,will decide that that “flaming husk” idea was a good idea.The correct action for Russia to do (doubtful they will) is for the FM to demand a written explanation as to what that talk is about. To “officially” and “publicly” warn the US about “loose talk” bringing on a war. And if they get no apology,cut diplomatic relations until they do.Action needs to be taken to stop this drift to war. And it may actually bring on a war if it isn’t.
Hi UB, cannot agree more.
Only 1 correction: The folks like the neocons today did already exist back then, but unlike now they were a minority.
Google for : nuke east-berlin (or simply for Lemnitzer)
https://www.google.de/search?q=nuke+east-berlin&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=u0m1Vob-IaO9ygOmzpjoDA
Declassified Top Secret Documents Show US Planned To Nuke Moscow, Berlin, Beijing
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/declassified-top-secret-documents-show-us-planned-nuke-moscow-berlin-beijing
In addition to my earlier post, in http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/declassified-top-secret-documents-show-us-planned-nuke-moscow-berlin-beijing there are many interesting reader’s comments, including most notably the following one:
“””””sgt_doom
sgt_doom’s picture
Yup, Kennedy fired Lemnitzer, and one-fifth of the CIA including Allen Dulles, Richard Bissell and Gen. Charles Cabell — but unfortunately for the last true Democrat in the White House, he should have fired all of them including the Bundy brothers. The day JFK was inbound to Dallas in 1963, McGeorge Bundy had his secretary type up NSAM 273, which completely negated and flipped NSAM 263 (which JFK had sent out via the military networks to appropriate State Department overseas offices, stating that all US military advisors would be withdrawn from Vietnam, beginning in late November of ’63) — NSAM 273, stating a major building up forces in Vietnam was to take place, was never seen by President Kennedy, but would be signed by President Johnson on the day after Kennedy’s burial (after his assassination).
Interesting that Richard Bissell’s grandnephew would be the FBI director, appointed just four days prior to 9/11/01, by President George W. Bush (and even more interesting that Robert Mueller III, Bissell’s grandnephew, would be married to a woman whose maiden name was Cabell)!
All just coincidency, of course . . . .”””””
Exactly, Uncle Bob 1… except they the Russians are too sloppy in preventing this slide into war. They could have done it in Ukraine, unleashing a barrage of words targeting the most sensitive spot — “European (Western) values” — and turn the tables on the West and speak of utter barbarism from the West that promotes killing people over negotiating with them. That would embarrass the Western narcissists to the point of backing down — or facing even more abuse that they should bitterly regret in the end.
@Antikapitalista:
Nice idea, but I’m not convinced.
The West has _no_ morale (its “elite”).
And the normal citizens never learn the truth from our western media.
Also: Enough people were and are sceptical and pro-Russian here in Germany and other EU countries. But instead of listening to us, the media condemn us as “conspiracy theorists” and as “pro-Russian Hitler- and Putin-lovers”.
Sounds crazy?? But that’s the situation.
FEB 5 late aftn.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941116000691
TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian Army and the National Defense Forces (NDF) are getting ready to carry out a large-scale operation in the Southern territories of Hama and Northern parts of Homs province with the Russian Air Fleet’s back up, military sources said Friday.
“For 36 straight hours, the Russian Air Force has targeted the militants’ defense line in Northern Homs near Talbiseh, as the Syrian army and the NDF prepare to strike the important villages of Hirbnafsa and Keisin that are located along the Orontes River in the Southern part of Hama province,” the sources said.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-q0H1i7NjKJU/USMj5pxlFXI/AAAAAAAAANg/l1LgpWBOKw0/s1600/syria-map-provinces1.gif
On Kurdish referendum, Russia says it supports people’s right to decide their future
By Rudaw 11 hours ago
http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/05022016
I love Mark Sleboda, Jonathon Fryer, well…not so much.
Précis of Fryer: “we consider the current situation unlikely and must move on”
When even the Western mouthpieces are confessing that the game is coming to a close … then it is. Check the last two days’ “Washington Post” lamentations, for instance:
Syrian rebels are losing Aleppo and perhaps also the war
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-are-losing-aleppo-and-perhaps-also-the-war/2016/02/04/94e10012-cb51-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html
After four months, Russia’s campaign in Syria is proving successful for Moscow
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/after-four-months-russias-campaign-in-syria-is-proving-successful-for-moscow/2016/02/02/7a65d676-9dd0-11e5-9ad2-568d814bbf3b_story.html
Uh, oh.
Good meme search site provides recent headline stories all sources, but slllow.
Took almost 1 minute to get back the first 3 results on the list.
Change search string, of course, to get wildly different results.
http://tersee.com/#!q=TURKEY+BORDER+SYRIA+WAR&t=text
1 from 3 hours ago:
http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-pm-says-15-000-fleeing-syrias-aleppo-154429380.html
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Friday 15,000 people fleeing the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, where Russian-backed Syrian government forces are pressing a military assault, had arrived at the Turkish border.
Keep an eye on the US home front in the next few weeks. The Pentagon is angling for a huge budget increase for next years—and Let’s-War-with Russia Hilary is having troubles with Obama-2 , pseudo socialist Blarney. Provoking Russia would be worth paying off Erdogan for what will be a thoroughly trashed airforce/tank army etc. if in turn it gets a trustworthy tool as President, a huge military budget, and a total shut down on foreign policy debate with a thoroughly demonized Russia ( and a side benefit will be no US body bags just wrapped Turkish corpses) .
However, the risks of everything blowing up in their faces is high—Iran weighing in against Saudi Arabia especially if the Sauid army marches up through Shia So. Iraq and the big, big question–what will Israel do? Their Generals will want to wait it out and rightly so. The Russians will most likely set up some very clear red line perimeters and will blast anyone who ventures near—they have two bases and planes to protect. The German military will drag its feet and hinder NATO–it is not their fight and they know it.
Yes, the next 3 weeks will be key…Minsk II was signed after a decisive defeat, but the situation in the midEast has not come to that kind of stalemate. yet.