Military analysis:
So today Slaviansk has finally fallen to the Nazis. Those of us with a military background all understood that this was pretty much inevitable and, obviously, so did the leaders of the Novorussian resistance. The fact that it took so long for the entire Ukie army to take that small town really says a lot about the amazing courage of its defenders and/or about the no less amazing incompetence (or lack of motivation) of the attackers. It appears that what happened is that Strelkov took the (wise) decision to abandon the town and to only leave a very small covering force to protect his retreating units. This plan apparently went well, the defenders broke through the Ukie lines with no losses and they are now heading towards the city of Gorlovka (as defending Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka makes no sense at this point). The military purpose of Slaviansk was to concentrate the Ukie death squads around itself to allow for the preparation of the real line of defense along the Donetsk-Gorlovka-Lugansk axis. The battle for Slaviansk achieved this purpose.
In purely military terms, the above is pretty much all which can be said about this event. But war is not a purely military phenomenon. In reality, wars are always deeply political, and politics is a multi-dimensional realm in which purely military factors are always secondary to much more important ones such as symbolism.
Political dimension
In political terms, the fall of Slaviansk is a disaster for Novorussia and even Russia.
If Slaviank had been taken weeks ago after a couple of days of fighting, it would have been a no big deal loss. But Slaviansk resisted for weeks and in the course of these weeks it became a symbol of resistance. Now that it has fallen, however, Slaviansk has become the symbol of Russian inaction. Purely military arguments simply don’t matter here and perceptions become everything. And the perception is clearly that Putin failed to deliver on his promise to protect Novorussia and that the defenders of Slaviansk fought and died in vain. Furthermore, now that Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka have fallen (or are in the process of being overrun by the Ukies), there is no way to avoid the worst kind of combats: Donetsk, Gorlovka and Lugansk are next.
Furthermore, what matters here is not only that Slaviansk has fallen, but why and how it has fallen. Slaviansk has fallen because Russia did absolutely nothing or, at least, nothing adequate, to prevent it from falling. As for how it fell, it fell in a bloodbath of murdered civilians: the Ukies essentially used only artillery to basically flatten the town. In other words, Russia let a mass murder of civilians go not only unpunished, but even unchallenged. One could argue that Russia had no obligation to take any action. This would be true if Putin had not officially promised not to allow such an event to take place. But he did commit himself and, through him, all of Russia, to extend a protection to the people of Novorussia.
Today, this promise appears to have been just words.
Consequences for Putin
The consequences for Putin of this situation are now becoming very serious because not only has the lack of Russian proactive measures terribly disappointed the Novorussian people, but it is now also beginning to alienate more and more people inside Russia including Putin’s core base of support. As I have written many times, the rage in Russia about the actions of the Nazi junta is huge and becoming stronger every day. The risk for Putin is that this rage might eventually become directed at him personally.
Does that mean that Putin has to send in the tanks ASAP?
No, but at the very least, Russian officials should stop their never-ending flow of appeasing statements and also express that popular rage. Today, the Russian TV channels have announced that Russia is “suspending” the return of Ukie military hardware from Crimea to the junta. If that is their idea of a sign of rage, then they PR folks in the Kremlin should be immediately fired. Not only is it both lame and crazy to hand back even one old and broken AK to an illegal Nazi regime in Kiev (remember, symbolic actions matter), but the notion that stopping this shameful handover is an adequate reaction to the events in the Donbass is simply delusional.
The great disconnect
There is something really weird happening in Russia right now. While it is true that most Russians probably would not support an overt and full-scale Russian intervention in the Donbass, the Russia media is constantly barraging the public with reports about Ukrainian atrocities and about the Novorussian resistance. Representatives of the resistance, including top-level political figures like Tsarev, get to speak on the main Russian TV news and talk shows no less than once a week and with the exception of a few confused and isolated “liberals”, almost every single guest on these shows advocates some kind of retaliatory measure against the junta. For example, it is my honest impression that a strong majority of Russian intellectuals and analysts favor a massive humanitarian, technical and financial support campaign for Novorussia. I would also say that most of them feel that Russia has to send enough military aid to allow the Novorussians to defend themselves. Again, with the exception of a few completely discredited (and openly ridiculed) pro-US “liberal”, everybody shows a total contempt for, and condemnation of, Poroshenko and the Nazi junta in Kiev. The best and kindest thing you hear about Poroshenko is that he does not matter, that he is only a spokesman for the US, that the real ruler of Kiev is the US Ambassador and that Poroshenko has no real power at all. Most think of him as a Nazi war criminal.
So there you have it. The people who for years have formed the power base of Putin openly call the Kiev regime a Nazi junta while the Kremlin makes one appeasing statement after another, interspersed here and there with lame protests which everybody simply ignores.
This cannot continue for much longer.
If the Russian betrayal of Iran and Libya could be legitimately blamed on Medvedev and his “Atlantic Integrationists”, a now possible collapse of Novorussia will be blamed directly on Putin, and I would argue fairly so.
Now Russia cannot retreat a single centimeter further
That’s it. The conflict has now reached a critical phase. If in purely military terms the fall of Slavianks and Kramatorsk are really no big deal, the fall of Donetsk or Lugansk would mean the end of the entire Novorussian project. In simple terms, that would mean a NATO controlled russophobic Nazi regime right across the Russian border. True, Banderastan is not viable and objective economic and now social factors (tens of thousands of heavily armed Nazis roaming across the country, for one thing) will inevitably result in an explosive collapse, but until that happens Lugansks and Donetsk must be held at all cost, including, if that is what it takes, a full-scale ground operation of the Russian armed forces.
Оn July 28, 1942 Stalin issued his famous Order 227 which contained the key sentence “ни шагу назад” or “not a single step backwards”. This order included the following words in which I have just substituted the words “Soviet” and “Red” with “Russian” and “German” with “AngloZionist”:
The enemy throws new forces to the front without regard to heavy losses and penetrates deep into Russia, seizing new regions, destroying our cities and villages, and violating, plundering and killing the Russian population. (…) The population of our country, who love and respect the Russian Army, start to be discouraged in her, and lose faith in the Russian Army, and many curse the Russian Army for leaving our people under the yoke of the AngloZionist oppressors, and itself running east. Some stupid people at the front calm themselves with talk that we can retreat further to the east, as we have a lot of territory, a lot of ground, a lot of population and that there will always be much bread for us. They want to justify the infamous behavior at the front. But such talk is falsehood, helpful only to our enemies. Each commander, Russian Army soldier and political commissar should understand that our means are not limitless. The territory of the Russian state is not a desert, but people – workers, peasants, intelligentsia, our fathers, mothers, wives, brothers, children. (…) Therefore it is necessary to eliminate talk that we have the capability endlessly to retreat, that we have a lot of territory, that our country is great and rich, that there is a large population, and that bread always will be abundant. Such talk is false and parasitic, it weakens us and benefits the enemy (…) This leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back! Such should now be our main slogan. It is necessary to defend each position, each meter of our territory, up to the last drop of blood, to cling for each plot of Russian land and to defend it as long as possible. Our Motherland is experiencing hard days. We must stop, and then to throw back and smash the enemy regardless of cost. The AngloZionists are not so strong, as it seems to the panic-mongers. They strain their last forces. To withstand their impact now, means to ensure our victory in some months.
Amazing, no? Prophetic words which I wish we would hear from the Kremlin today. Instead, all I hear from the Kremlin are vapid and lame protests. This cannot continue any further: Russia must react in a determined and effective way.
What exactly that way must be is for Putin and his Security Council to decide. But what is certain is that action must be taken now to clearly and visibly stop the Ukie assault. And if the only way is to bring in the Russian military, then I say “do it!”.
The Saker
Do not wholy play a defensive war. You,re not afull national army. Play defense thru guerilla war in the offense to weaken the enemy.eg disrupt oil supplies, railways, water, etc.. in kiev..make life miserable.. blow their airports etc.. kiev is bankrupt and will fall..
Right on.
– from Nazi-occupied Amerika
I am the
“fuck you, fuck your analysis and fuck PUTIN” commenter.
You asked what the consequences for Putin will be.
It will be DEATH. Putin sealed his faith the moment he let the first child die. Putin has blood on his hands. The cries of the innocent will be answered.
God is just. God won’t let Putin go unpunished for his inaction.
How can you ask putin to go in this fight if the majority of donetsk people rather flee than to go fight against kyev? It is easy to blame putin for not fighting your war. It is easy to sit at TV and watch the news about fighting. So stand up, grab a rifle and protect your homeland!!! If all the novorosiia men go fight, then you will see the uk army on the run and never returning. Glory to those who fight the nazis even if enemy is stronger in numbers and guns. GLORY AND RESPECT.
This is how Kremlin was played by the US. If Putin attacks, he is a dictator, monster and aggressor. If Putin does not attack, he is weak, ineffective and might get booted out by his own people.
I think the response is in the works and we will know about it when the time is right. The Slavyansk seem like a very dramatic thing – but it is not. I know the people are getting murdered but this is war and death is part of it. I’m sure Putin is preventing a much bigger evil that has been prepared for Russia and the rest of the world. Sit tight, be patient, pray and share your thoughts. The war is not over and Ukies will be crashed, this upcoming winter – Not before.
Thinking out loud here..
Maybe the freedom fighters should realize that their resistance is actually causing these second rate nazi’s to shell and devastate the city…
Why not let the Ukraine Army take the city, have the population practice non-violent civil disobedience and refuse to listen or pay taxes to Kiev.(ghandiesque behaviour). And if the these Nazi’s start to utilize violence, then when they least expect it, begin guerrilla acts against the occupier.
It is almost impossible to believe that Russia continued shipping tanks and artillery from Crimea to Ukraine until Saturday. I was appalled when Putin announced they would be returning all the captured tanks and guns to Kiev, presumably as proof to the US and EU that they had no intention to invade Ukraine, and therefore were’t concerned that they were bolstering the firepower of a potential enemy. It reminds me of the poet in the late 1920’s who, as Stalin’s purges started to get underway, wrote that he was “making the bullet they are going to shot me with.” And not long after he wrote that, he was executed.
It seems Putin has decided to step down and let Novorossia crash and burn, possibly hoping that will embitter Ukrainians against the fascists running Kiev. The Comintern followed the same strategy in Germany in 1933, claiming Hitler’s accession to power would “hasten the collapse of capitalism” as the Nazi’s alienated the working class. We all know how that worked out. The Nazi’s simply arrested and killed all their opposition. As one survivor of the death camps put it, “First they came for the Communists, but I wasn’t a Communist, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, but I wasn’t a Trade Unionist, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for the Jews, but I wasn’t a Jew, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for me, and there was nobody left to protest.”
It is almost impossible to believe that Russia continued shipping tanks and artillery from Crimea to Ukraine until Saturday. I was appalled when Putin announced they would be returning all the captured tanks and guns to Kiev, presumably as proof to the US and EU that they had no intention to invade Ukraine, and therefore were’t concerned that they were bolstering the firepower of a potential enemy. It reminds me of the poet in the late 1920’s who, as Stalin’s purges started to get underway, wrote that he was “making the bullet they are going to shot me with.” And not long after he wrote that, he was executed.
It seems Putin has decided to step down and let Novorossia crash and burn, possibly hoping that will embitter Ukrainians against the fascists running Kiev. The Comintern followed the same strategy in Germany in 1933, claiming Hitler’s accession to power would “hasten the collapse of capitalism” as the Nazi’s alienated the working class. We all know how that worked out. The Nazi’s simply arrested and killed all their opposition. As one survivor of the death camps put it, “First they came for the Communists, but I wasn’t a Communist, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, but I wasn’t a Trade Unionist, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for the Jews, but I wasn’t a Jew, so I didn’t protest. Then they came for me, and there was nobody left to protest.”
It seems to me that Putin could be literally flooding the area with military equipment. It shouldn’t matter if everybody knows it, so long as he denies it. The Americans haven’t exactly kept their participation a secret. What the hell?
Sorry to see the persistent use of “Nazi” to describe everyone from all sides. How utterly leftist (ridiculous). As if every oligarch and all of the US State Dept. engineering isn’t an entirely Jewish operation. It’s cowardly.
I agree. So does this article on Counterpunch by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
How Long Can Putin Wait?
by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/04/how-long-can-putin-wait/
Volodya, at least stop calling Western criminals, your “partners”, “colleagues” and so on. Counterparts is a fine neutral word and will suit.
Excuses… that’s what u write. You are losing that’s all truth :)
hey saker,
you have fallen prey of the criticisms of your critics that you’ve you criticised; that is: smearing of Putin and distrusting him.
but you miss the most important point: Many weeks back, Puting had told the donbass people: leave aside the referendum for the time being, etc. etc., and they opted to not follow his advises (or warnings). Puting has got the whole picture, not only the donbass spot, and the interests of Russia, both national and international, come first. Does this mean he’ll fail the russians living in ukraine?. I do not think so. But I’m sure he is not the type of man who likes to be taken BY the rope, as some intended to do. A cow he is not.
Plus, “The self-defense forces had to leave Slavyansk to prevent numerous civilian deaths, but this absolutely does not mean that their resistance has been crushed, says Andrei Purgin” ( http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_07_05/Self-defense-forces-withdrawal-from-Slavyansk-does-not-mean-resistance-ends-DPR-1253/ )
So, this may well be a tactical move by Strelkov, in which case, its results will be viewed within the next days. Too volatile the situation, that can be radically the opposite in a few hours.
Thus, in my opinion it is too early for your conclussions, Saker. (which seems to be as cyclothymic as the one of Strelkov. But the difference is he is a military on duty, who at any moment can be affected by the death in combat of a comrade of his, or can he be deprived of sleep, this affecting his briefings.
Kind regards.
Nice fantasy. You are living in the past obviously. The civilized world does not want your hate, your rage against humanity. Freedom is not what you want.
Russia will never, and I repeat never intervene. Why? Because its regime is completely controlled by the very same people who control the so called Western World. They’re just two sides of the same coin.
For my third post on the matter:
Russians from Russia have to cross the border and kill the killers of Russians. Veterans of wars have the knowhow. They have a cause. Kill or be killed.
Those dead and wounded children, women and men in Novorossiya are dead or wounded because they were Russian and only because of that.
All the words and emotion don’t mean squat. You live by killing when killers are sent to kill you. Elementary brutality called self-preservation.
Mankind is programmed since the caveman days to kill or be killed. Nothing has changed in Ukraine.
Even old soldiers could go with an RPG or MANPAD and leave it. And then go back the next day with another piece. Over and over until the war is won.
As a person who is not Russian, all I can do is hope something good comes from the sacrifices. The human race cannot abide genocide of any group. But if the Russians don’t act in their own defense (and I mean the people, not the government), then we will see wholesale genocidal murder in the East.
All any Russian needed to see was Odessa, May 2. If they missed that, Lugansk June 2.
My blood boils and there isn’t a drop of Russian in my veins. But I’m human, and I know bestiality when I see it.
You kill the beasts.
An indication of things to come diplomatically:
Who Mr. Tefft is and what he brings to Russia
John F. Tefft was nominated as the Ambassador to Ukraine under Barack Obama’s presidency in 2009 and served in office until 2013. Before assuming that position, he served as Ambassador to Georgia (2005-2009), and prior to that as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs and was responsible for US relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.
” John Tefft was at the center of the practice of change in Georgia and Ukraine. And this may also increase suspicion to his actions in Russia and result in a cautious approach to any of his initiatives.
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_07_02/Who-is-Mr-Tefft-and-what-he-brings-to-Russia-6480/
T1
to mr Putin:
there is an old song played from Pete Seeger titled “Which side you are on”
Well, mr Putin: which side you are on?
No surprises here:
NATO arming Ukraine with Soviet weapons – Deputy PM Rogozin
NATO’s newest Eastern European members are handing over their Soviet arms stockpiles to the Ukrainian army, Russia’s Deputy PM Dmitry Rogozin says, adding that the alliance is in danger of pouring gasoline on the flames of that country’s civil war.
http://rt.com/news/170388-rogozin-ukraine-arms-europe/
T1
Dear Saker,
You have expressed my opinions exactly.
I am no military expert and I must bow to your’s and other’s authority on the purely military significance of Slavyansk’s fall. However on the politics I wholly agree with you.
I have a strong personal aversion to war. I do not think it should be resorted to as a first resort. I feel that Russia was under an obligation to seek a diplomatic, negotiated solution. As recently as Wednesday that seemed to be going somewhere. However no sooner was the Berlin Declaration issued then Poroshenko was on the phone to Biden, Ashton and Hague. The ceasefire supposedly agreed in Berlin is nowhere in sight and the talks that were supposed to begin today (5th July) have not happened. Persisting with a diplomatic route no longer makes sense and I agree with you that the moment for decision is now.
I agree with those who say it is too soon to jump to conclusions about what is happening in Novorossia. Poroshenko was given a deadline to stop the bombardment. He has not (and probably cannot and remain in power). As far as “the fall of Slovyansk” being a propaganda coup – we will see about that.
more to my 16:33 post.
Why NOBODY laments, criticises, demands **the ARMY of the Ukraine** to intervene?
What is wrong with that army of the Ukrayne, actively engaged in murdering the very same people it promised to defend?
Why is it that all pro-kiev and pro-USA hasbarians ask Russia to intervene?
Why all those russians in the Ukrayne just remembered mother Russia NOW, when that nazist junta promised to decimate them, but apprently they did not remember mother Russia whey they split apart from her, despite Russia helping out the Ukraine in the hundreds of billions? Actually they had a hot plate on the table thanks to mother Russia.
Enough propaganda. Enough!, when even the supposed pro-federalists / pro-Russia are bitching Russia “to come to task in the donbass”.
.
Saker said: And if the only way is to bring in the Russian military, then I say “do it!”
So do I. Do not leave the people. Please do not leave the people again as in Serbia, or Libya. You could have saved them.
Russia is the only power that can stop EUSA and many people hope for that.
I want to believe there is a plan, there is a limit, beyond which Russia will react.
We can never know, but it certainly looks like Russia hasn’t had a strategy since the Crimean takeover. Sure, more deaths were needed to convince the Russian public that force was required, but the lack of a plan seems to be visible in many places. How was Novorossiya going to operate? Why wasn’t there support to Kharkov or other areas? Why no guerrilla actions? Why not just bring in lots of men and weapons and deny it? Fundamentally, why go from a situation with high morale and a confused opponent to a very defensive posture with unclear goals? Can you blame someone in the Donbass or Kharkov being unwilling to fight with inadequate weapons, no training, and no salary when there is no clear goal? Not denying that Gubarev had goals, but he wasn’t an organization. The US was willing to put tens of billions of dollars into manipulating Kiev, and Russia can’t spend a billion when it could turn into another WWII?
And, of course, what was the point of sort of supporting the referendums and promising to prevent civilian massacres? To not follow through is demoralizing to those on the pro-Russia side and makes those on the other side gain confidence. What will Russia do against mines around the Crimea or even more aggressive action?
@anon @16:27
Pivotal piece there, in that it’s pretty clear that Putin’s reasonableness is at the point of turning into a political and strategic negative for him.
Barring an upcoming dramatic break between western Europe and the US (also very possible now) I think a Russian intervention is becoming more likely, probably this month.
Remember ya heard it here.
Joaquin Flores mentions Saker in one of his 2 latest posts:
Analysis of July 5 Slaviansk Developments
“The 6th column, within alternate English language journalism and analysis, whether consciously aware or not are at times even friends like Vladimir Suchan — who rails against Putin’s inactivity thus providing a good propaganda cover for actual Russian involvement, but can border on demoralizing defeatism — and Juan ”the Saker” — who generally has decent (though at times misinformed) and supportive analysis but yet responds emotionally, journalistically, and cataclysmically to real-time news that may be construed unfavorably.“
KIEV/DONETSK/LUGANSK, July 05, 20:52 /ITAR-TASS/. Militiamen have left Slavyansk besieged by the Ukrainian army, fighting their way to Kramatorsk and Artyomovsk. The troops of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) have taken positions along reserve defence lines. Militiamen from other cities of the Donetsk Region are moving toward the regional capital. The Ukrainian army is sustaining heavy losses in Lugansk: about 130 of them have died there over the past 24 hours. Militia’s headquarters moves from Slavyansk to Kramatorsk Militiamen left Slavyansk last night, moving their headquarters to Kramatorsk. Slavyansk is almost completely deserted. It was bombed again during the night, forcing people to flee en masse. Two ambulances that were transporting injured people also came under attack even though the Ukrainian authorities had promised to open a humanitarian corridor for those wishing to leave the city. The local military hospital has been moved to Donetsk. Its chief physician in Donetsk said there was a shortage of personnel and all those available were busy placing the wounded, whose number has doubled. The towns of Semyonovka and Niklolayevka, which for a long time remained the only link to Donetsk, have been taken by the Ukrainian army. DNR troops take positions on reserve defence lines DNR Prime Minister Alexander Borodai told ITAR-TASS that the self-proclaimed republic’s troops had to surrender their previous positions to the outnumbering Ukrainian army and move to the reserve ones. “Our troops have taken up positions on the reserve defence lines, doing so in an organised manner and preserving the personnel and hardware. We were prepared for this as we had to fight a group of several dozen thousand people and hundreds of armoured hardware; in other words, practically the entire defence capability of the Ukrainian army,” Borodai said. “Our troops are continuing to fight, their morale is high and we are confident of our strength. But considering the scorched earth tactics used by the punitive squadrons and the overall Ukrainian strategy of genocide against the people in Donbas, we say that every hour of fighting claims the lives of peaceful people,” he said. “We are urging the international community to influence the Ukrainian authorities and stop the extermination of the peaceful population,” Borodai said.
There will be no words from Kremlin. Why? Because Kremlin thinks it has made a deal with the US and EU; Ukraine takes control over Donbas region while Russia keeps Crimea.
Little does Putin know that once Donbas is taken care of the US and EU will wage a proxy war on Crimea using Ukraine army that will by then has enough military knowledge, exposure and practice to lead that war. Once again the good old tactic of deception is working.
People who did not learn the lessons from their history are destined to re-live their history. Apparently Russians did not learn much. Waiting until the enemy enters Moscow is not the best tactic for Russian population. And for those that will say “but Russia always wins” I am saying DOES IT?
Losing 26 million people was a WIN??? Those 26 million people could have “created” 150 million people since 1940 until now. That would make the population of Russia today of 330 million inhabitants, the same as the one of the USA. Instead Russia today has 170 million. Think about it one more time before you say Russia won in WWII!
In addition, if Russia won then it only makes sense that Germany lost in that conflict. Germany today is by far the greatest economic, political and cultural power in Europe. It has the population of 82 millions and is the only real boss of the EU which has the population 505 millions, three time that of Russia. What’s good to have the greatest land mass in the World when majority of that mass is uninhabited? Who will defend that huge territory if some wants to occupy it?
So, does Russia always win????
Saker,
I think you did a good analysys overall but are letting emotions get to you. I would like to remind you that you posted sometime ago a list of the US targets in all of this. Maybe you need to read it again(I agree with said list 100%). An intervention will be a strategic disaster in my opinion(at least at this point in time). Maybe we should see how the Ukrainian offensive fares against the defences of the resistance to which they retreated. It would be infinitely better in any strategic sense if they can hold on their own for as long as it takes for the limited ukrainian resources to be exausted(and their will to fight). I find it telling that the ukrainian army seems to be in a hurry(otherwise they would’ve prepared much better) – in my opinion this is a consequence of the fact that they know they don’t have much time before both economy and public support completely collapse and with these their ability to wage war. I think that’s why Russia waits. Then again I might be wrong but that’s my take on things now.
Greetings from Bulgaria and congrats for the immensely informative and analytical work you are doing.
@jc & Joaquin Flores: responds emotionally, journalistically, and cataclysmically to real-time news that may be construed unfavorably.”
Well, Gee, I guess that I am not a propagandist in charge of damage control and “favorable” spin, but simply a human being, with stuff like emotions. That reminds me of the prosecutor’s accusations in Pink Floyd’s “The Trial” (in the “The Wall” album):
Good morning Worm your honour
The crown will plainly show
The prisoner who now stands before you
Was caught red handed showing feelings
Showing feelings of an almost human nature
This will not do!
So it looks to me like I am a bleeding heart.
Guilty as charged.
The Saker
1. You said capturing a city from guerrillas is easy but holding it is a nightmare.
2. You listed a dozen or so reasons, all valid, as to why a military intervention would be a strategic disaster for Russia.
3. A city is taken and you fall apart calling for intervention.
Having emotions is all well and good. But when people are relying on you to provide clear headed analysis, letting go is no longer an option. Like it or not you are now a part of this fight, you have a duty.
The only NAZIS are RUSSIANS. With so many deaths due to your imperial politics, you should be just ashamed.
Greetings from former Czechoslovakia, a country which does not forget 1968 invasion from Russia!
Mr Saker, I think you need the help of someone ( not me!) specialized in psy-ops to weed out some of the comments.
I have my questions about the course mr Putin is taking as well, but in this very difficult time we need to stand united, and not let ourselves be divided by commenters: some might be genuine expression of feelings, but a lot of them smell or stink. (imo.)
Saker, please, please be patient right now there is a much bigger game on the horizon than everybody who is unsatisfied with the Putin’s performance and want to have the action right now.
For Putin it is the even much more pain to watch these atrocities, if you watch the Russian TV stations you can see this pain in his eyes, but at the same time every single human being on this earth already understand that if this game is not going to be finished successfully, than the all world will be duped for ever.
Putin is in the most dangerous situation to make a right decision as ever any politician was put under in our recent history.
It was an excellent post on your blog posted by some commentator I assume from the Arab world and he exactly has explained that this psychopathic and parasitic Anglo-Zio regime is on their last legs. Why? Because nothing was enough for them, they want to have the all world, enslave every single human being on this earth with exception of the few selected.
It was working for almost 500 years, but if you compare this geopolitical situation of today’s world to the simple kitchen scale you can realize that it is never going to work because one side is incredibly heavy and another side can’t even recover.
We have definitely lost the balance in our society where “Live, and let another people live too” and because of this mis calculation this is going to be their end.
We can see balance in the nature and everywhere around us, where in no balance consequences are follow.
It is same story with our health and so on.
It was predicted by the many economical, social scholars around the world, that this project is not going to work in any circumstances, but these thugs they still think they can do what they want because they have money.
Yes, they do, but because they were printing money like mad, these money became just an insignificant papers they can use as a wallpaper and nothing else.
Putin will deal with these monsters gradually, don’t worry to let them know how the pain taste.
Be patient the final game is just before the door. Pray for the innocent people of the Novorussia and pray for the final fight for all of the people around this beautiful earth.
Two related articles:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/president-poroshenko-uses-rand-corporation-action-plan-for-eastern-ukraine-including-ground-assaults-and-air-strikes/5389795
and
http://rt.com/news/170636-taliban-burn-tankers-afghanistan/comments/page-4/
Note the comment that the trucks are junk and the suggestion that this is a ploy to get the US to buy new ones for them.
the key, as His Majesty said above
@anon @16:27:
“an upcoming dramatic break between western Europe and the US”
Regarding “not one step back”:
All that is fine, except that Donetsk does not lie in Russia.
Hi Saker,
Due in large part to being a regular reader of your blog I am not shocked or surprised by the news out of Slavyansk. It was yourself on the 2nd of July (I think it was) that said be prepared to expect that things could get worse or appear worse when the ceasefire ended.
During the ceasefire Strelkov remarked that the Ukrainians were bringing in all their heavy guns and artillery along with fresh troops to the front but that a good commander would be planning (which he was). If you read your words from that post, you shouldn’t be surprised with these events, I read them and I am not. This is not the end.
If one were to draw a straight line from Belgorod to the Uke/Rus border on the Black Sea, Slavyansk would be on the Eastern side of that line. Most of the Ukraine Army and equipment I understand will be now too.
The USA since 1990 or 1991 has been showing off to the world its military equipment, capabilities and operational tactics and Russia hasn’t. Russia has a huge advantage in this regard and the West would love to get a chance to see Russia’s military in action (from afar), they want Russia to invade (in my opinion).
I honestly believe there is a plan, god help us all if I am wrong, but Russia is fighting more than just a war in Ukraine (this all started after the failed plan to invade Syria and dispose of Assad) and would like to win this “asymmetrically” to save their true capabilities secret for the real enemy (the people behind the Uke Nazis).
Regards,
Stepping Razor
Nothing in Putin’s past (that I know of) suggests cowardice or lack of calculation. Putin knows there is a war against Russia. He kicks the can down the road. Why?
I personally think that the main goals for Russia and Putin are not related to Ukraine – Putin is concentrating on the work on undermining and destroy the basis for the petrodollar and dollar as a reserve currency. By this the US will be more effectively neutralized as a long-term threat to both Russia and China. In this context it is also important that the signing and ratification of TTIP will be delayed or even prevented – and this demands that Russia is not regarded as such a threat that the US wants Russia to be by the larger European nations.
We will see what the result will be of the G20 meeting in Moscow.
Just some thoughts….
Sten-Erik Björling
Very disappointing news no doubt but the war is not over. In my opinion, the main U.S. objective was to divide Russia from Europe, both politically and economically. This is obviously nowhere near being achieved yet. In fact there are real signs the opposite is possibly happening. All this waiting by the Kremlin is for Europe to watch what is occurring in E. Ukraine. Putin is showing the “civilized” nations of Europe, “look…this is your new friend. A country which flattens cities with heavy weapons and kills civilians. Do you support this?”
I believe only if some western leaders begin openly criticizing Poroshenko and or calling for an end to the killing of civilians, this would give Putin the political cover to take overt military action. And it would take the American wedge intended for Russia and plant it firmly between Europe and the U.S.
Win.
From puppet-state Canada.
Of course there is a plan!, calculated to the milimeter.
please let’s be reminded that the first “color revolution” instigated by the USA in the Ukrayne was TEN years ago. Ten years ago!. And then others came. Russia has had time enough to analyze, and plan well in advance everything to perform its plan faultless. Crimea anyone?.
Let’s be patient and we’ll see …
Putin is today the only leader in the world deserving such title.
And Obama is rabidly envious of him, and desperate. Everyone of his words and deeds show it. He looks a pathetic and reckless cowboy.
.
I completely agree. Without a clear sounding and quick response will be ‘a political disaster for russia and putin
I’m from Serbia and I’m totally biased and pro Russian oriented. However I feel sick watching Russia doing nothing proactive to help RUSSIAN national people in Ukraine.
It is pathetic, that Putin helped Syria and Asad far more than its own people in Ukraine.
I remember when arrogant clown Alexandar Konuzin – Russian Ambassador in Belgrade at some debate about Kosovo asked us
“ARE THERE NO SERBS HERE ?”
Now I ask Putin’s government
“ARE THERE NO RUSSIANS THERE”
Shame on Russia.
To anonymous at 17:25
Part 1:
You have to go and start to study who was giving the order to invade former Czechoslovakia.
You have probably never heard about the story when Putin has opened the most secret archives of the KGB and was in shock when he has discovered that the all world is run by the same thugs like for example US soldiers were sent to Vietnam, Korea,Yugoslavia,Iraq, Afghanistan and so on.
Invasion to former Czechoslovakia was made because the plan for the “New world order” wasn’t yet in the final stage and the preparation for the looting the former Eastern Europe countries was just in the preparation stage.
Because Mr.Dubcek had the knowledge of this genocidal “New World Order” and that was the reason why was killed as soon it was possible and many another politicians.
Now lets have a look what you have as a society under the Russian occupation:
Absolutely free schooling up to the PhD education and academic education, free healthcare, highly professional day care for children from age 6 months up to 6 years, free daycare for the children of age 6- 14; subsidy for the children wear; free union recreations for the all family, free rehabilitation and recreation centres, mother new born baby paid leave for three years and the place at the work place must to wait till she was back;
I can go on and on it will be a very, very long
list of the social, educational, cultural benefits.
Disadvantage was, people can’t travel freely to the west, they were follow by the secret police if they were against the regime.
Now what you have received after the instalment of the
lets call this as a very “Honourable” western democracy under the direction of the master looter Mr.Havel.
Via Mercouris:
“There’s been no statement about the situation in the Ukraine from the Kremlin or from the Russian Foreign Ministry or from any official of the government all day. There’s no indication that they have even been in touch with the western powers. The whole government is in lock down as they decide what to do. It reminds me of the silence that followed the February coup and which was only fully broken by Putin’s press conference on 4th March 2014. As I have said elsewhere what is probably of most concern to the Kremlin is not the fall of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk but the fact that its diplomatic strategy is exhausted with the failure of the tripartite negotiations to commence today despite the agreement to start them which was made on Wednesday.”
To anonymous 17:25
Part 2:
Now all of us who are living in the West knew already that this was nothing just a rehearsal what they are doing right now here for example in USA. You have no idea what is going on in USA. Comparison of the secret police during the communist regime and the NSA, FBI and CIA, communist regime was just a kindergarden experience for example.
Now what you have received after the instalment of the
lets call this as a very “Honourable” western democracy under the direction of the master looter Mr.Havel.
These days, witnesses are coming forward and speaking how the Mr.Havel was treated in jail, he was living like a king with his everyday whisky, TV in his cell, visitors as many as he wanted and so on. It was just a very well played game and nothing else.
Mrs. Albreight is planning to install another statue of Mr.Havel paid by the taxpayers money even everybody knows that Mr. Havel was nothing just a fraud.
Now my question to you is:
Do you like these horrendous numbers of the homeless and unemployed people lying on the streets what you have right now?
Under the Russian invasion being unemployed it was a jail sentence. Everybody had a job.
Do you like these drug edict people who are attacking the seniors just to get some money to buy another dose of drug.
Under the Russian invasion we have seen some drunk people here and there, but nothing horrendous what is going on right now in former Eastern European countries.
Senior people who were working all their lives now they are forced to steal food in the store just to survive.
Under the Russian invasion young people stood up at the bus when the older person came on board.
Today they pretend they don’t see anything.
Did you see so many bankrupt people loosing their homes to the parasites under the Russian invasion?
You don’t! These are just a very, very few examples between the Russian invasion and the west parasitic invasion of the society.
My advise to you is that you should sit down and start to read some history facts to get your opinion to wake up before the electronic chip will be installed into your body and you will be followed up even in the bathroom ,because you can’t already do your barbecue freely because you are follow by the Google street view what kind of shorts you have and how your guest are laughing.
You are still illusional and it is OK everything is permission of the free world or just an illusion of the free people and world.
I wish you all of the best and wake up before it is going to be too late.
I am also sad and angry, to the point of tears.
However: I may be falling victim to wishful thinking, but there are multiple articles on alternative economics sites that predict an imminent sudden crash of the world financial and economic system (around July 15th), precipitated by a major false flag attack, worse than 9/11.
If that is not just so much blather and scare tactics, and Putin knew about it, it would explain his extreme play for time. Well, qui vivra verra.Tough times ahead either way.
@18:14
Winter.
And the economic collapse of Ukraine, after the billionaires are bled dry funding their private armies. Five months.
also, the collapse of the US Stock Market, which is currently doing the Pose of the Coyote levitating in mid-air above the canyon, being held up by the Fed blowing a constant stream of money upwards. However, this one could take two years before it falls apart.
So the real fun begins before Christmas, it looks like.
To Saker and those pressing direct Russian intervention — never lose sight of THE BIG PICTURE.
Plan A remains Plan A —
1. By using terror and atrocities, compel Russia to intervene militarily.
2. Poro calls for assistance and gets NATO boots on the ground.
3. NATO invades Crimea and Sevastopol and the Black Sea falls into US hands.
This scenario must not be permitted to play out no matter what the provocations.
The only NAZIS are RUSSIANS. With so many deaths due to your imperial politics, you should be just ashamed.
Greetings from former Czechoslovakia, a country which does not forget 1968 invasion from Russia!
05 July, 2014 17:25
Do not speak in my name, anonymous from the former Czechoslovakia. Your name-calling and blind hate are disgusting.
Thank you, Saker. You help me better understand Russia and Russians. I am ashamed of the behaviour of the EU.
Greetings from the Czech Republic!
Saker, what you write is correct from the beginning to the end.
From the military point of view, I had already written some days ago that Slavyansk was doomed, while others desperately hoped in squads of die-hards successfully defending the ruins. That was, as Italian Gramsci wrote, “the optimism of the will against the pessimism of the intellect”. A Militia cannot resist in a town that the enemy shells and bombs at will.
Now I see comments going in three directions (apart from trolls and the Czech who does not forget 1968: that wasn’t Russia, that was communism, mate, and communism has brought to death many more Russians than any other nationality. By the way, it would be good if you remembered also the Nazi invasion, it was more serious business).
So, first direction: fuck Putin, to hell with the traitor. Understandable, but of little use, even as a post.
Second direction. All is very well, madam the marchioness. Putin has secret designs, he is summoning the jedis, the Ukis will be stopped and massacred in front of Lugansk and Donetsk.
I can make another easy prediction. If things stay as they are, Donetsk and Lugansk will just see a repetition of what is happening in Slavyansk. As the enemy controls the air, has an enormous superiority in tanks and APCs, he will take dominant positions and bomb the places into ruins, until the militia dissolves or flees to Russia. You know this, and your appreciation of Putin’s position is once again correct.
I would like to add a single point: either he intervenes, and it is about time to do so, or he should clarify what prevents him to do so and threaten to resign.
Those who read russian can appreciate polls as the attached one about Putin’s reasons for inactivity:
http://cs616320.vk.me/v616320107/12656/yuVXggua9qs.jpg
I fully understand that such a line of action is incredibly non-russian and non-“Putinish”, but simply persisting in inactivity will vastly damage his popularity and will cause him to loose next elections, or even be ousted by some kind of coup. And this would be a victory for the Empire much bigger than Slavyansk.
Rockerduck
turally uurator” In reality, wars are always deeply political, and politics is a multi-dimensional realm in which purely military factors are always secondary to much more important ones such as symbolism.”
From a previous blog you stated that you were a military analyst.
Typically as part of a team the military analysts are asked their opinion, but in a collegial and rigorous process where due respect is given to all opinion, but where all participants accept that the strategies and evaluations are determined and assessed by purpose.
Other parts of the team would likely amend your quotation above to read, ” politics is a multi-dimensional realm in which purely military factors are always secondary to much more important ones such as…. purpose.”
It may be the case that lack of recent practice or other factors have made you more prone to “emotional” responses.
It may be the case that lack of recent practice or other factors have made you less prone to completely assimilate the precise statements made by others – quite understandable since as far as I am aware you were not afforded a possibility of checking your statements with the primary source before publication – “This would be true if Putin had not officially promised not to allow such an event to take place. But he did commit himself and, through him, all of Russia, to extend a protection to the people of Novorussia.” refers.
It may also be the case that not having the support of a team has led you to over-reach your competences thereby significantly undermining your extrapolations.
Neither of us is sitting in the fora where purpose and evaluation are determined.
I realise that this is a blog and that consequently your purpose and mine will likely be different
to those in the fora where purpose and evaluation are determined. However since it is a war of some duration which likely will have consequence even in Florida, I would suggest standards of analytical rigour should not be sacrificed.
In the light of the above perhaps you would welcome the opportunity to reconsider this particular blog.
You are comedians! Russia and your stupid nationalism are the reason of communism. You have never freed us, you have occupied us for more than 40 years!
We remember and hate you deeply for your crimes, which you never apologized for.
Now, you commit another crimes in Ukraine (Crimea is Ukraine!) for which you will have another excuses in the future. You will also blame them and call them somehow. But mature people know what the notion of responsibility means. You are just kids playing with matches…
What made Putin a figure of world import was his willingness to resist the West.
He will prevail, however, only if he takes another step and stops playing by the rules of Anglo-Saxon business civilization.
General Geletey promises a victory parade in Sebastopol. The Donbass Army is Russia’s “thin blue line”.
Unless Russia provides Donbass with proper equipment and stabilizes the front, Russia will have real war on its hands, one that could easily escalate into nuclear war.
On 05 July, 2014 20:27 Anonymous wrote
You are comedians!
[froth deleted]
Watching your head turn pink in murderous rage, screaming, yelling and spraying saliva all over the table and monitor is a funny sight.
Please keep it going. Consider using a chainsaw for the demolition of your furniture, rather than bare hands.
Thanks and have fun.
B.
Putin wants attack, but the other hold as a mad dog. They are unclassifiable and possibly unseen forces or untold. The world is not clear from seats without binoculars. This barbaric but if Donbass males will grab weapon and Kiev can not withstand the pressure. Russia later.
To see if the Germans give up at once with their “friend american”:
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/07/04/actualidad/1404488164_311691.html
Putin also should give up once and not call to congratulate who makes his life a his nationals life miserable. Diplomacy is always good and is preferable, but has a limit.
Sorry, you know that I have great appreciation for him but there he has not been fine.
To anonymous at July 5 ,2014 / 17.25
Dear angry anonymous,
Nobody is speaking in your name I was just giving you some questions what you haven’t responded yet.
The truth is sometimes painful, especialy when the names are all over everywhere confirming they were involved in the looting and the evidence is obvious.
Why do you consider this disgusting / to mention the names/?
I’m sorry that I have dissapointed you, but the reality for the most of the citizens of the former Czechoslovakia is much, much worse then it was during the communist regime,unfortunately it is not just former Czechoslovakia.
Till now none of the regimes were reliable for the most of the humanity, maybe you will give some suggestion for the better future.
Don’t be upset, because it is not good for your health and the hatered what you hold towards Russian nation is going to make you sick.
Russian’s are totaly innocent like the US soldiers sent out to kill innocent people around the world.
A guerrilla war makes good sense, carried out by special forces and the civilian population. Enough of such a war frustrates the US desire to draw Russia into a full war and at the same time can frustrate the US desire to take the Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Office also issued a report that is quoted by Paul Craig Roberts and is available for download. It is full of carefully researched and proven violations in several categories. The time for action is fast approaching, but can still be done with enough finesse to win the day. As for the posts from those who lived under communism, don’t confuse that with Russia. If you wonder what the US is up to, just look at the countries they have sown fitnah (mischief) in. All are now failed states, as Ukraine will also be. Rise up!
As a person who lived in the Czech Republic for 8 years, many of these Czechs are easily swayed by propaganda.
They cannot see that Russia is not the USSR, they have that now with the EUSSR!
Also they were the only country to democratically elect a communist regime with the largest percentage of votes in history!
“Czechoslovakia: A failed state” is good background reading..
It is unexpected, but I am more relieved than anything by this development. Strelkov has done something that is very logical and that people have been saying for a while he should do (after convincing everyone it was not going to happen, a very successful disinformation campaign). It has been clear for some time that Strelkov was wasted in Slavyansk. He and his people are in the right place now, doing a badly needed thing – bringing all of Donetsk units under single military command – by force if necessary, as the place is a vipers’ nest. There were serious concerns that Donetsk would not even need to be taken by military means, it would fall through betrayal. Now there is hope that this will be avoided, and the DPR forces will finally start functioning as a whole. Plus it has finally been confirmed (there have been hints before) that everything is not as it seems, and there are things going on that the general public is not aware of – this is an encouraging development in the present circumstances.
Writing from western Europe (Portugal)I would like to give my take on events in Ukrane:
It’s easy to criticize Pres. Putin and I can certainly understand the frustration and the anger, especially of those who live or have families in Novorossia.
Personally nothing would please me than to see to Russian Armed Forces take Kiev and hang all the Junta members and their supporters to dry.
Better only if they reintegrated Ukraine in the Russian Federation, where it historically belongs, and only live Galicia and Lviv to the dumb Poles (taking Galicia from Poland after WW2 was one of Stalin’s mistakes).
One however needs to consider the Ukranian events from a broader perspective.
The main objective of the whole american Kiev operation is to politically separate Russia from the EU.
To maintain Russia isolated and Europe hostage to the American “defense” policy.
That in turn is vital to keep the petro-dollar system on which the american empire relies.
By showing so much (undoutebly painful) restraint in dealing with this crisis, Putin is giving time for the public opinion in Europe to see through the wall of lies of the Western media and understand who’s the culprit behind the Ukranian mess.
The first signs of strain between Berlin-Paris and Washington are already showing.
It is vital for both Russia and Europe that people in Europe and the European governments finally realize that we share a common continent and a common future and we want no more of Washington’s dirty policies.
That in turn will bring about the collapse of the dollar, the end of NATO and the beguinning of true cooperation between Europe and Russia. Perhaps even integration.
Only this final outcome will really prevent those brave people in the Donbass from dying in vain.
Only this will be full victory and liberation of the peoples of both Russia and Europe.
Best regards and keep up the splendid work of keeping those of us who can’t read Russian well informed!
I have been monitoring, and posting on, the Russian Federation Foreign Ministry Facebook page, and it is quite clear to me that Russia is not intending to take any action at all in order help the people in Novorossiya. The Russian government continues to offer medical assistance to the region through the Kiev regime, which of course refuses the help.
Putin has a hard time,and ppl in eastern Ukraine even more,they die and nobody halps them.If Putin attacks,then he will be proclamed as agresor,if he do not attac,then he is looser and must stap down.
Putin,s sin is the fact that he did ancorage prorussian fighters to fight for independence,and then he left them die alone in unfare fight against much stronger enemy.Putin should be quaet in begining and let prorussians know that they will be alone in this war.
Anonymous said..06 July, 2014 00:10,
Portugues brother of the Iberian Peninsula, God hear you.
First of all I would like to express my feelings of sympathy and sorrow for the Russians being murdered by the Kiev neonazis and the AngloAmerican Zionists. I am sure that after they do the job for America, they will be exterminated by the guys who pay them now. Like Osama Bin Laden and many others.
Putin is trapped. He lost time, he should have attacked the day 1, the day he conquerred Crimea. Now it is late. But there is still hope. Tanks and artillery should be supplied, medicine, ammo, radios, maps. Russian army should not intervene. Americans are waiting to nuke Russia, and they have the power and the will to do it. American people won’t object the use of weapons of Mass Destruction against Russian population. Europe will be destroyed, and America because it is far away, will be the real winner, indeed. Americans will lose the war, but they will win finally because EU and Russia will be ruins. That’s why Putin is afraid to intervene militarily.
I believe strongly in the power of the NovoRussian soul. If they get strong weapons they will manage to stop the Ukrainians. Unfortunately Greece, my country, under bankruptcy, governed by an AngloZionist Junta, sent in the Black Sea a frigate.
My wishes for the Best. May God help Russia to survive this nightmare.
C’mon. Stop panicking over tactical withdrawal and focus on the bigger picture. Just because Slavyansk held out for months doesn’t mean it must be held forever at ALL costs for it to be a symbol of resistance. It did much better then expected as is and gave time to organize the army better.
And how many soldiers lives were WASTED by “not a single step backwards” order ? Holding trenches or small houses under constant bombardment by air and artillery is not smart at all. Wasting well trained 4GW troops to hold territory is not the way to win this war.
russians in ukraine left butchered and leave their land…that is the olan i think….if the pressure inside russia was much,russians would have invade…the target in future is russia itself…orthodoxy is not affortable by west…ukraine is under Unia,a Pope plan….in fact a total war there is the most possible to happen the following months….history make cyrcles…once again,in same area…
Saker,
Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are not strategically important. They were held to draw the Ukraine military into having to attack from the Kharkiv- Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhya-Malitopol line.
One thrust was Kharkev-Slovanysk but they didn’t win a battle. They were stopped at Slovyansk while the defenders simply drove to Donetsk and probably have control of E-40 and much of E-50, certainly all the way to Lugansk and Maruipol.
This means the Ukranians will have to split their forces twice more: Some must come south from Kramatorsk but some of that group will have to split toward the E-40/E-50 crossroads at Debaltseve to try and split the communications line between Donetsk and Lugansk.
Simultaneously, a force will have to move from Dnipropetrovsk through Zaporizhya and move to Melitopol to block the pro-Russins from simply going to Crimea. They cannot stop them going to Russia via Mariupol.
Kiev’s militart probably can’t do all of that – maybe they can’t do any of it. They do not have a viable military. The reservests they have are being led into an area in which they cannot pick the ground or fight the battle they want to fight – from a distance. So far it has been almost entirely an artillery battle but the closer they get to the border, their odds of encountering something they cannot handle increase by the mile.
In the mean time, France and Germany are thinking it over and may very well opt out because of Putin’s calm, reasonable efforts, and the US government’s failing tactics of spying, threats and blackmail.
I believe Russia is perfectly capable of understanding the vagaries of the ongoing situation and that Putin is playing tactical chess while Obama is playing golf.
Both sides have been gaming scenarios just like this since the 1940s. We shall see which can respond better to the strategic sitation.
Saker,
Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are not strategically important. They were held to draw the Ukraine military into having to attack from the Kharkiv- Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhya-Malitopol line.
One thrust was Kharkev-Slovanysk but they didn’t win a battle. They were stopped at Slovyansk while the defenders simply drove to Donetsk and probably have control of E-40 and much of E-50, certainly all the way to Lugansk and Maruipol.
This means the Ukranians will have to split their forces twice more: Some must come south from Kramatorsk but some of that group will have to split toward the E-40/E-50 crossroads at Debaltseve to try and split the communications line between Donetsk and Lugansk.
Simultaneously, a force will have to move from Dnipropetrovsk through Zaporizhya and move to Melitopol to block the pro-Russins from simply going to Crimea. They cannot stop them going to Russia via Mariupol.
Kiev’s militart probably can’t do all of that – maybe they can’t do any of it. They do not have a viable military. The reservests they have are being led into an area in which they cannot pick the ground or fight the battle they want to fight – from a distance. So far it has been almost entirely an artillery battle but the closer they get to the border, their odds of encountering something they cannot handle increase by the mile.
In the mean time, France and Germany are thinking it over and may very well opt out because of Putin’s calm, reasonable efforts, and the US government’s failing tactics of spying, threats and blackmail.
I believe Russia is perfectly capable of understanding the vagaries of the ongoing situation and that Putin is playing tactical chess while Obama is playing golf.
Both sides have been gaming scenarios just like this since the 1940s. We shall see which can respond better to the strategic sitation.
I am surprised that you did not foresee this happening. Here is someone who did. More than a month ago.
http://pando.com/2014/05/30/war-nerd-whats-happening-in-eastern-ukraine-is-very-simple-rational-and-straightforward/