by Alexander Mercouris
The reaction to the cancellation of the Sound Stream project has been a wonder to behold and needs to be explained very carefully.
In order to understand what has happened it is first necessary to go back to the way Russian-European relations were developing in the 1990s.
Briefly, at that period, the assumption was that Russia would become the great supplier of energy and raw materials to Europe. This was the period of Europe’s great “rush for gas” as the Europeans looked forward to unlimited and unending Russian supplies. It was the increase in the role of Russian gas in the European energy mix which made it possible for Europe to run down its coal industry and cut its carbon emissions and bully and lecture everyone else to do the same.
However the Europeans did not envisage that Russia would just supply them with energy. Rather they always supposed this energy would be extracted for them in Russia by Western energy companies. This after all is the pattern in most of the developing world. The EU calls this “energy security” – a euphemism for the extraction of energy in other countries by its own companies under its own control.
It never happened that way. Though the Russian oil industry was privatised it mostly remained in Russian hands. After Putin came to power in 2000 the trend towards privatisation in the oil industry was reversed. One of the major reasons for western anger at the arrest of Khodorkovsky and the closure of Yukos and the transfer of its assets to the state oil company Rosneft was precisely because is reversed this trend of privatisation in the oil industry.
In the gas industry the process of privatisation never really got started. Gas export continued to be controlled by Gazprom, maintaining its position as a state owned monopoly gas exporter. Since Putin came to power Gazprom’s position as a state owned Russian monopoly has been made fully secure.
Much of the anger that exists in the west towards Putin can be explained by European and western resentment at his refusal and that of the Russian government to the break up of Russia’s energy monopolies and to the “opening up” (as it is euphemistically called) of the Russian energy industry to the advantage of western companies. Many of the allegations of corruption that are routinely made against Putin personally are intended to insinuate that he opposes the “opening up” of the Russian energy industry and the break up and privatisation of Gazprom and Rosneft because he has a personal stake in them (in the case of Gazprom, that he is actually its owner). If one examines in detail the specific allegations of corruption made against Putin (as I have done) this quickly becomes obvious.
His agenda of forcing Russia to privatise and break up its energy monopolies has never gone away. This is why Gazprom, despite the vital and reliable service it provides to its European customers, comes in for so much criticism. When Europeans complain about Europe’s energy dependence upon Russia, they express their resentment at having to buy gas from a single Russian state owned company (Gazprom) as opposed to their own western companies operating in Russia.
This resentment exists simultaneously with a belief, very entrenched in Europe, that Russia is somehow dependent upon Europe as a customer for its gas and as a supplier of finance and technology.
This combination of resentment and overconfidence is what lies behind the repeated European attempts to legislate in Europe on energy questions in a way that is intended to force Russia to “open up” its the energy industry there.
The first attempt was the so-called Energy Charter, which Russia signed but ultimately refused to ratify. The latest attempt is the EU’s so-called Third Energy Package.
This is presented as a development of EU anti-competition and anti-monopoly law. In reality, as everyone knows, it is targeted at Gazprom, which is a monopoly, though obviously not a European one.
This is the background to the conflict over South Stream. The EU authorities have insisted that South Stream must comply with the Third Energy Package even though the Third Energy Package came into existence only after the outline agreements for South Stream had been already reached.
Compliance with the Third Energy Package would have meant that though Gazprom supplied the gas it could not own or control the pipeline through which gas was supplied.
Were Gazprom to agree to this, it would acknowledge the EU’s authority over its operations. It would in that case undoubtedly face down the line more demands for more changes to its operating methods. Ultimately this would lead to demands for changes in the structure of the energy industry in Russia itself.
What has just happened is that the Russians have said no. Rather than proceed with the project by submitting to European demands, which is what the Europeans expected, the Russians have to everyone’s astonishment instead pulled out of the whole project.
This decision was completely unexpected. As I write this, the air is of full of angry complaints from south-eastern Europe that they were not consulted or informed of this decision in advance. Several politicians in south-eastern Europe (Bulgaria especially) are desperately clinging to the idea that the Russian announcement is a bluff (it isn’t) and that the project can still be saved. Since the Europeans cling to the belief that the Russians have no alternative to them as a customer, they were unable to anticipate and cannot now explain this decision.
Here it is important to explain why South Stream is important to the countries of south-eastern Europe and to the European economy as a whole.
All the south eastern European economies are in bad shape. For these countries South Stream was a vital investment and infrastructure project, securing their energy future. Moreover the transit fees that it promised would have been a major foreign currency earner.
For the EU, the essential point is that it depends on Russian gas. There has been a vast amount of talk in Europe about seeking alternative supplies. Progress in that direction had been to put it mildly small. Quite simply alternative supplies do not exist in anything like the quantity needed to replace the gas Europe gets from Russia.
There has been some brave talk of supplies of US liquefied natural gas replacing gas supplied by pipeline from Russia. Not only is such US gas inherently more expensive than Russian pipeline gas, hitting European consumers hard and hurting European competitiveness. It is unlikely to be available in anything like the necessary quantity. Quite apart from the probable dampening effects of the recent oil price fall on the US shale industry, on past record the US as a voracious consumer of energy will consume most or all of the energy from shales it produces. It is unlikely to be in a position to export much to Europe. The facilities to do this anyway do not exist, and are unlikely to exist for some time if ever.
Other possible sources of gas are problematic to say the least. Production of North Sea gas is falling. Imports of gas from north Africa and the Arabian Gulf are unlikely to be available in anything like the necessary quantity. Gas from Iran is not available for political reasons. Whilst that might eventually change, the probability is when it does that the Iranians (like the Russians) will decide to direct their energy flow eastwards, towards India and China, rather than to Europe.
For obvious reasons of geography Russia is the logical and most economic source of Europe’s gas. All alternatives come with economic and political costs that make them in the end unattractive.
The EU’s difficulties in finding alternative sources of gas were cruelly exposed by the debacle of the so-called another Nabucco pipeline project to bring Europe gas from the Caucasus and Central Asia. Though talked about for years in the end it never got off the ground because it never made economic sense.
Meanwhile, whilst Europe talks about diversifying its supplies, it is Russia which is actually cutting the deals.
Russia has sealed a key deal with Iran to swap Iranian oil for Russian industrial goods. Russia has also agreed to invest heavily in the Iranian nuclear industry. If and when sanctions on Iran are lifted the Europeans will find the Russians already there. Russia has just agreed a massive deal to supply gas to Turkey (about which more below). Overshadowing these deals are the two huge deals Russia has made this year to supply gas to China.
Russia’s energy resources are enormous but they are not infinite. The second deal done with China and the deal just done with Turkey redirect to these two countries gas that had previously been earmarked for Europe. The gas volumes involved in the Turkish deal almost exactly match those previously intended for South Stream. The Turkish deal replaces South Stream.
These deals show that Russia had made a strategic decision this year to redirect its energy flow away from Europe. Though it will take time for the full effect to become clear, the consequences of that for Europe are grim. Europe is looking at a serious energy shortfall, which it will only be able to make up by buying energy at a much higher price.
These Russian deals with China and Turkey have been criticised or even ridiculed for providing Russia with a lower price for its gas than that paid by Europe.
The actual difference in price is not as great as some allege. Such criticism anyway overlooks the fact that price is only one part in a business relationship.
By redirecting gas to China, Russia cements economic links with the country that it now considers its key strategic ally and which has (or which soon will have) the world’s biggest and fastest growing economy. By redirecting gas to Turkey, Russia consolidates a burgeoning relationship with Turkey of which it is now the biggest trading partner.
Turkey is a key potential ally for Russia, consolidating Russia’s position in the Caucasus and the Black Sea. It is also a country of 76 million people with a $1.5 trillion rapidly growing economy, which over the last two decades has become increasingly alienated and distanced from the EU and the West.
By redirecting gas away from Europe, Russia by contrast leaves behind a market for its gas which is economically stagnant and which (as the events of this year have shown) is irremediably hostile. No one should be surprised that Russia has given up on a relationship from which it gets from its erstwhile partner an endless stream of threats and abuse, combined with moralising lectures, political meddling and now sanctions. No relationship, business or otherwise, can work that way and the one between Russia and Europe is no exception.
I have said nothing about the Ukraine since in my opinion this has little bearing on this issue.
South Stream was first conceived because of the Ukraine’s continuous abuse of its position as a transit state – something which is likely to continue. It is important to say that this fact was acknowledged in Europe as much as in Russia. It was because the Ukraine perennially abuses its position as a transit state that the South Stream project had the grudging formal endorsement of the EU. Basically, the EU needs to circumvent the Ukraine to secure its energy supplies every bit as much as Russia wanted a route around the Ukraine to avoid it.
The Ukraine’s friends in Washington and Brussels have never been happy about this, and have constantly lobbied against South Stream.
The point is it was Russia which pulled the plug on South Stream when it had the option of going ahead with it by accepting the Europeans’ conditions. In other words the Russians consider the problems posed by the Ukraine as a transit state to be a lesser evil than the conditions the EU was attaching to South Stream .
South Stream would take years to build and its cancellation therefore has no bearing on the current Ukrainian crisis. The Russians decided they could afford to cancel it is because they have decided Russia’s future is in selling its energy to China and Turkey and other states in Asia (more gas deals are pending with Korea and Japan and possibly also with Pakistan and India) than to Europe. Given that this is so, for Russia South Stream has lost its point. That is why in their characteristically direct way, rather than accept the Europeans’ conditions, the Russians pulled the plug on it.
In doing so the Russians have called the Europeans’ bluff. So far from Russia being dependent on Europe as its energy customer, it is Europe which has antagonised, probably irreparably, its key economic partner and energy supplier.
Before finishing I would however first say something about those who have come out worst of all from this affair. These are the corrupt and incompetent political pygmies who pretend to be the government of Bulgaria. Had these people had a modicum of dignity and self respect they would have told the EU Commission when it brought up the Third Energy Package to take a running jump. If Bulgaria had made clear its intention to press ahead with the South Stream project, there is no doubt it would have been built. There would of course have been an almighty row within the EU as Bulgaria openly flouted the Third Energy Package, but Bulgaria would have been acting in its national interests and would have had within the EU no shortage of friends. In the end it would have won through.
Instead, under pressure from individuals like Senator John McCain, the Bulgarian leadership behaved like the provincial politicians they are, and tried to run at the same time with both the EU hare and the Russian hounds. The result of this imbecile policy is to offend Russia, Bulgaria’s historic ally, whilst ensuring that the Russian gas which might have flown to Bulgaria and transformed the country, will instead flow to Turkey, Bulgaria’s historic enemy.
The Bulgarians are not the only ones to have acted in this craven fashion. All the EU countries, even those with historic ties to Russia, have supported the EU’s various sanctions packages against Russia notwithstanding the doubts they have expressed about the policy. Last year Greece, another country with strong ties to Russia, pulled out of a deal to sell its natural gas company to Gazprom because the EU disapproved of it, even though it was Gazprom that offered the best price.
This points to a larger moral. Whenever the Russians act in the way they have just done, the Europeans respond bafflement and anger, of which there is plenty around at the moment. The EU politicians who make the decisions that provoke these Russian actions seem to have this strange assumption that whilst it is fine for the EU to sanction Russia as much as it wishes, Russia will never do the same to the EU. When Russia does, there is astonishment, accompanied always by a flood of mendacious commentary about how Russia is behaving “aggressively” or “contrary to its interests” or has “suffered a defeat”. None of this is true as the rage and recriminations currently sweeping through the EU’s corridors (of which I am well informed) bear witness.
In July the EU sought to cripple Russia’s oil industry by sanctioning the export of oil drilling technology to Russia. That attempt will certainly fail as Russia and the countries it trades with (including China and South Korea) are certainly capable of producing this technology themselves.
By contrast through the deals it has made this year with China, Turkey and Iran, Russia has dealt a devastating blow to the energy future of the EU. A few years down the line Europeans will start to discover that moralising and bluff comes with a price. Regardless, by cancelling South Stream, Russia has imposed upon Europe the most effective of the sanctions we have seen this year. .
Thank you for the most informed commentary on this subject that I have ever read.
Short and clear. Here is what lunatix, or pot smokers, or halucinogenic mashrooms eaters, as Bezler would call them say:SOFIA, December 2. /TASS/. Bulgaria accepts Russia’s unilateral decision to halt the South Stream project, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Daniel Mitov said on Tuesday.
Russia’s refusal to implement the South Stream project with the European Union demonstrates that Russia is not going to observe the laws existing in the territory of the European Union, he said.
He said that to withdraw from the project Russia would have to denounce the interstate agreement on the pipeline construction. “Let us wait and see whether the Russian side will make such a step. So far, we don’t have any document certifying this position,” he added.
Excuse me, what did you say? In civilized world they have something called legal system. This legal system is built on principles. 2 of those fundamental principles is Retroactivity and Ex post facto. After you get sober must look at 2 facts:1, by 3rd energy package EU, by applying it on signed agreement, put this contract to void if other party in the agreement will not willing to proceed with those new conditions. 2, cowards in EU did not have courage to cut gordian knot they created. Putin did it for them.
What do you think?https://news.vice.com/article/china-is-playing-hardball-with-russia-over-two-massive-gas-pipeline-projects
VICE News belongs to Rupert Murdock. Enough said.
This is a great move in the chess game. I wonder that no one thought of it.
And by the way, I was wondering how this “shale gas” would be transported to Europe..by tankers?
OMG wouldn’t that go down well with the activist environmental groups here in western Canada…not only Keystone…now Shalegaz….
I feel sorry for the european people, but its coming to the americans too…their own lives are eventually going to be affected…not only “the poor” but the fatsoes on their couches too…the ones that drive to work in their slinky cars.
I used to live in the States, and driving down their truly fabulous freeways, every car was new. It was such a shock to move to a little community in western Canada where the cars are all old beaters…
And just imagine the Europeans !!! In their Mercedez benzes…which are now manufactured by Ford….
BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT RUSHES IN TO SAVE SOUTH STREAM PROJECT
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/bulgarian-government-pledges-support-to-save-south-stream-
O-O. Heroes got sh÷t in pants. Hey, NY Times, who was diplomaticaly defeated? Diplomaticaly defeated Putin, but if they do not get what they want Pyrrha comes to mind. Good advices from Washington.
Redirecting South Stream toward Greece is aimed toward elections in Greece and toward Italy with Balkan detour. EU already said they plan connect pipe in Turkey. NYT call diplomatic defeat of Putin.
Only to supplement this excellent post (i.e. ditto first comment by StevenStarr), two posted today at Fort Russ:
“We turned out to be the same stupid prostitutes as the poles” – outrage and anger on Bulgarian forums
The West will never allow Bulgaria to have cheap energy and, as a consequence, a strong economy. They want us just as a colony and a source of cheap labor and cheap resources…
The truth is that Putin and Erdogan are statesmen and work for the good of their countries, not like our assholes, unfortunately…
The “taming” of Europe or Putin’s new compromise
…Ritual slaughter of South Stream, made before the eyes of the entire European press is a stark and clear message…
…Putin seems to say to the Europeans: “Be afraid of your desires, they can be fulfilled.”…Europeans are in panic and shock that Putin painted a very unpleasant future for them…a “Groundhog Winter” – endless nightmare which will not be solved by supplies of expensive American LNG…
…Putin calls Europeans “friends” not for nothing, and a friend is revealed in trouble. Europe has a problem – it is sick with “Americanism”…A good friend and doctor Putin had prescribed the best medicine…
From the beginning, I’ve read your blog with keen interest. Your usage of phrases such as “political pygmies”, however, give me pause. It is a racist slander against the Aka, Efé and Mbuti peoples of Central Africa. Ancient cultures. Proud peoples.
Why is it that when people of European origin reach for a pejorative term, that term invariably involves Black people: ‘voodoo’ economics’; ‘mumbo-jumbo’ politics; ‘zombie’ bankers. The indisputable fact is that the endless catastrophes plaguing the world today originate in the imperialist metropoles of Europe and the USA. You should know better.
Goodbye, Saker.
Saker,
For a Turkey perspective of the deal:
http://orientalreview.org/2014/12/02/cold-turkey-ankara-buckles-against-western-pressure-turns-to-russia/
Very nice post Saker.
What are your opinions on the Qatar pipe that was supposed to run through Syria?
Whilst having Turkey as a partner is beneficial it also seems like shaky ground when looking at the US plans for the region.
To be frank .. the direction this is going seems to be scarier than the Ukraine conflict in a way.
KUDOS to this amazing writer! What an amazing article!
He wrote another recently on the real causes of the high and low prices of oil and that article was an eye opener too!
http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20141201/1015350074.html
If he uses twitter, I am going to follow this guy!
Thumbs up!
Excellent analysis. The EU is getting what it deserves.
Alexander Mercouris, I hope this analysis gets published far and wide. It is superb. It is an appreciation worthy of this historic moment, this grand pivotal event.
So the point really is not so much whether or not Turkey proves reliable, as it is that Russia has cancelled South Stream, irretrievably. End of story for that particular pipeline, regardless of who wants to play in other games, or not.
I personally think that Turkey will prove reliable, as it happens, and that this is hugely in its own interest. I have a slight familiarity with the Turks as a people, and I call them pretty tough. Much more like the Russians than not when it comes to bluff and showdown. I don’t think they can easily be dissuaded from their best interest. We shall see.
As for Russia – bravo! Slow to saddle, and never reveal your intentions whether by threat or bluff. It’s not my country, but I feel very proud of it, and its people, and its peerless, incomparable leader.
It is not Arabian Gulf. It is Persian Gulf.
It is not Arabian Gulf. It is Persian Gulf.
The author makes crystal clear sense.
Now go read the bullsh*t from the Media, every last one of the major West outlets pouring it on that Putin has failed, was rebuffed, outsmarted and Russia is screwed by the ending of SouthStream.
Hilarious crapola from the Media chorus of the Hegemon.
Not only is this an economic checkmate of EU, this is a strategic check of the NATO-US war machine directed at Syria. Turkey made a strategic decision in its economic self interest and will not press for a no-fly zone, and the violent overthrow of Assad.
The Russians may find a substitute for Assad down the line, but they will do nothing to upset the Syrian Army and the core of the nation, nor work against Iran and Hezbollah.
Putin won big with gas, with controlling Turkey’s aggression against Syria and with coaxing Turkey toward Eurasia and the SCO.
It is huge for the Black Sea stability and Russia’s stance in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.
All the while the jackals write hilarious nonsense of Russia losing.
The Russians just cold-cocked Brussels! The EU is one giant step closer to having frozen balls every morning.
NATO has a member (Turkey) that is hooked up to the “enemy” for decades for its energy.
Who lost? The Hegemon, NATO, EU, and Ms Merkel for about the tenth time.
They’ll need to shoot down two more Malaysian airliners to cover up this mess.
Haha. My thoughts exactly! The only serious problem for Russia at present is the undeniable fact that there will be substantial short term economic pain. Recent economic developments have been extremely negative for Russia I have to admit. Of course there is always short term agitation in a capitalist economy. Russia must hold steadfast through this cowardly attack against her.
Wow! This is comprehensive and a pleasure to read.
The EU has become a clown show. The head of NATO from Denmark, of all places, is fond of waving his arms and talking tough about Russia. Will we see “crack units” of the Danish special forces. This is crazy. Then we have Hollande capitulating on the Mistral deal and Merkel behaving like a complete numbskull. Her actions are so against the interests of Germany, it is legitimate to wonder if she is being blackmailed.
Ironically, as this deal was crafted, Turkey and the EU were meeting on energy policy the the next decades.
Who will the EU preach to without Russia to kick around?
It is wonderfully comprehensible. The wretched Europeans are just going to have to save themselves from the AngloZionist satanists. Though sometimes ugly, there is justice in the world.
Russia is following on the steps of what I was wishing for. I wanted Russia to go on a war footing since this is not just a regime change they want but to break up the Russian state for exploitation. Russia just opened a new command center. I dont like European policy, ever since I learnt how they destroyed the entire world pretty much under the guise of what not. I thought after WW2 they had learnt but it seems they haven’t. There is some resistance but for countries thats suffered such massive destruction, they are not very empathic towards others and are front and center on the new crusades.
But I never figured Russia would cancel south stream. I always imagined Iran would supply Turkey and India since they hold the largest gas deposit. With half the planets population, China and India can absorb all the gas Iran as well as Russia can provide. Qatar will always be a US vassal state since it cant even defend itself against anything. So it will be Qatari gas sold at twice the price to the Europeans. If the US cant sow chaos in Africa, that wiil develop and absorb all the gas and oil they produce as well and I suspect this African pivot is to destabilize Africa and stop its development.
Energy is civilization, You use energy for everything. Cheap energy can create huge strides in quality of life. That energy has to be available and it has to be cheap. Now with more than half the planets gas available to asia, half the battle is already won. European schemes of stealing and pillaging and colonizing are over. They developed themselves on the back of the rest of the planet but to keep that level up they still need cheap labor and energy which they dont have access to now. 40 million Ukrainians working for peanuts aint going to do it. When there are 2000-3000 million who would work cheaper and better.. In a few decades, EU will be irrelevant anyway and the US will turn into that insignificant little island. The way it is going, it will be just like Saddam’s Iraq.. Free country to live in but you never know when the cops grab you and decide to see what their new grenade actually does to a human body..
The author is too hard on the Bulgarian government.
If they had chosen Russia over the EU, and by implication, the USA, their government might have been targeted for “regime change.”
The Bulgarians were probably caught between a rock and a hard place. If they went along with the EU-USA, they risked alienating Russia and losing the deal. If they went with their self-interest, and therefore Russia, they’d earn the enmity of the US government, and lose, potentially, so much more than a deal.
Meanwhile, Turkey is a NATO country, so it remains to be seen how reliable a partner they will prove for Russia. I do agree wholly that Russia’s future is in the east, doing business with countries the USA cannot intimidate or control.
[from Blue]
It’s fascinating how lucid and readable a post can be when the author directly tells the truth.
I’m waiting for when the time comes when the US will start these sanction games and other nonsense on China, who will simply stop selling to the US (and by then the US economy and money the people have will be so diminished that flow of goods from China will be much smaller anyway).
China is well able to make both the machine tools and consumer toys now supplied by Europe to Russia. Europe can go back to feudal farming — as long as the climate changes permit.
We are coming to end of capitalism, where money is made by simply having money, gambling, and building Ponzi pyramids, and financial schemes instead of working and producing tangible stuff of real value.
__Blue
Mark Sleboda
1 h ·
Russia (finally) giving up on South Stream in a nutshell:
Biggest winners – Banderastan (the state formerly known as Ukraine), US government and fracking giants, perfidious Turkey (another snake in the grass for everyone, don’t trust these bastards any further than you can throw them)
Biggest losers – Serbia, Eastern European citizens (what West would call “energy consumers”), naïve liberal Russian foreign policy dreams of long-term consolidation and alignment with perfidious EU/West as anything but a subservient satrapy and resource appendage, Bulgarian national interests
Biggest whore – Bulgaria shamelessly abandons even the pretense that they have any sovereignty left – all surrendered legs gaping wide to Brusnellian EU technocrats.
Brilliant move, Kremlin. Instead of letting Ukraine hold Russia hostage over gas transit to EU, we will let the Turks (who we are on proxy war with in Syria) hold us hostage.
As European I just want hang these incompetent US paid bureaucrats and cleptocrats in Brussels. Who is with me?
All true, and very well said. But in my opinion there is not much to rejoice.
Russia has been forced to a “second best out of two” deal, with a partner which is by no means a “natural Russian ally”. Turks see themselves as historical enemies of Russia, they are a militant NATO member, actively supporting a vision of Islamism that can easily recreate among Russian Muslims problems that had been brilliantly solved by Putin. Also, Turkey has proved quite aggressive and unpredictable in recent times.
Russia comes out of this issue surely better than the Euro-buffoons, but the solution found is far from optimal. And Bulgarians are pushed into the Euroslaves’ meatgrinder with no return ticket.
Great analysis, many thanks.
thanks.. you hit the nail on the head here. james
Russia will get the drilling technology also from Brasil, which is a world leader in offshore deep sea drilling. Not US, not EU, not Norway, but Brasil!!!!
Russia will get the drilling technology also from Brasil, which is a world leader in offshore deep sea drilling. Not US, not EU, not Norway, but Brasil!!!! ANd surprise Vietnam
Just a note. There has been a lot of shale gas extraction maneuvring in Ukraine and other parts of Europe in recent times, as well as projects of liquid gas terminals in Northern Italy. I have read somewhere yesterday (sorry, I don’t remember where) that among the reasons of the war in Eastern Ukraine were Western companies’ fracking tests with the subsequent local people’s fears of pollution of fields and water sources. It appears that the EU will be “forced by circumstances” to seriously pursue fracking and/or buy gas from the US, to the delight of European people.
I feel Europe is learning now what Norway learned years ago: we are not in a position to moralize.
In 2010, Norway awarded the Nobel peace prize to a Chinese dissident. Norwegian politicians were very quick to say that trade between Norway and China would not suffer. We are 2014 now, and trade between Norway and China still has not recovered. To the contrary: in september 2014 China banned imports of Norwegian salmon, just to make sure Norway gets the idea.
In 2014, Europe demonized Putin and imposed sanctions against Russia. Look at what happened to Norway and learn: you are not in a situation to preach. Get off your high horse or kiss your political and business relations with Russia goodbye.
May be EU should try gather all their Bullsh#t and try to make some bio-gas from it. May be that would work. Or they can try to capture some hot gas they seems to release from time to time.
Excellent article. Thank you.
Note that in the opening sentence of the 8th paragraph a correction is badly needed. It currently says:
“His agenda of forcing Russia to privatise and break up its energy monopolies has never gone away.”
The word “his” makes it sound as if it is referring to Putin (he is the only individual being discussed in the previous sentences). It is confusing. It should be changed to “Their agenda” or “this agenda” or “Europe’s agenda” or whatever.
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/12/02/putin-pulls-when-obama-pushes/ Recommend to everybody read this very interesting. Good “judo” move by Putin. Should we add (like goodfather) “keep your friends close and your enemies even closer” keeping an eye on Erdogan.
-Ingrid-
Message to Jan Verheul. Through your comments here I found your blog and the exellent Dutch translations of the articles and interviews from the Saker’s site. I would like to spread these articles and need your permession, but I cannot reach you (wordpress does not cooperate with me on your site). Please contact me: ingridvanderkleijn@gmail.com
Dear Alexander,
Thank you for this excellent article. The EU will reap what it has sown. Sadly it will be all the innocent people in these countries who will suffer :(.
I think however Serbia will be looked after by Russia as they were the only one’s (and only historical ally) in the whole EU to not impose sanctions and stand up for S.S. Thanks to Bulgaria they are also screwed.
Rgds,
Veritas
When the game gets tough, then the toughs play.
Hollande, did you understand? This slap in the face is not for France, is for the entire EU. Expect the your.
Well done, well done. He’s a grandmaster of chess. Check, and perhaps mate. What brilliant mind. Well done.
Thanks for the nicely researched article.
Still there is one question I have that I couldn’t find an answer to, neither here nor anywhere else arround the interwebs:
Currently there are 12 pipelines from russia supplying gas to the EU, 5 of them go through the Ukraine. Reading a few days ago that these pipelines are not even at full capacity (overall average of 75% degree of capacity utilization during the winter of 2013) I haver to ask – why is South stream so important for Europe, if there are other pipelines from Russia that will keep delivering gas as long as Europe pays its bills?
I wonder if this is not a strong signal that Russia is uninterested in control of the Ukraine. If they contemplated a takeover, it would be done before the pipeline was finished and control would be in Russian hands. Moving the gas elsewhere abandons interest in the Ukraine.
There could be People who find it interesting that Ukraine has Foreigners as Ministers in its Puppet Government, because if these Foreigners do a good job, then it will say to Everyone that Ukrainians are basically subhuman and stupid, because they need Foreigners to Rule over them.
These Foreigners have been given vey quick Citizenship, and we know that Migrants must wait years before being granted Citizenship, and so it is one Law for the Elites and another Law for the Citizens.
These Foreigners consist of a Georgian, a Lithuanian, and an American, and they will be Foreigners for years, because that is how long Naturalization really takes under normal circumstances, but they will be always be Foreigners, because they are Puppets of Anglo-America, and Anglo-America will be Secretly Ruling Ukraine by Decree, and formulating all of Ukraine’s Policy, and these Foreigners
This is because these Foreigners are the real brains behind the Entire Ukrainian Government, because they Secretly held All Government Portfolios, but the Government put on a Good Act to say that these Foreigners only held their own Portfolios in Government.
It is this attitude that the English and French have, that the English and French need to have Colonies, because the Colonialist Attitude of the English and French is that Stupid Natives need the Superior Anglo-Saxons, and the Superior French.
This is the Attitude and Practice of the European Union, which is Ruled by Anglo-America, even if the subjects of the European Union think that their Vote in Elections makes them a Sovereign Country, even as Ukraine is no longer a Sovereign Country, because it is Blatantly being Ruled by Foreigners.
There could be People who think that the reason that Anglo-America Deliberately Engineered the Coup in Ukraine was to make a success of Ukraine to show All of the Countries of the World that they need the Anglo-Americans to be their Puppet Masters, because Anglo-America wants to Rule the World.
I want to say which regards to the rest of this comment that I do not know anything about Economics or Trade.
There could be People who think that if Oil become too cheap, as to be uneconomic then America will stop Production, on the Condition that Oil producing Oil do all of their Foreign Trade including Oil in American Dollars.
This would increase the price of Oil for the remaining Oil Producing Countries, and but this will increase the value of the American Dollar.
There could be People who think that Saudi Arabia might stop exporting Oil, on the condition that Oil Producing Countries use the Saudi Arabian Currency for all of their Trades, and that they buy sufficient Saudi Arabian Goods Services, and Banking Loans to compensate the loss of Oil Revenue.
The Article says that China will soon be the Largest Economy in the World, and perhaps Countries will Invest in producing more Russian Oil, because the World will the extra Oil once the Global Economy Inevitably Recovers.
There could be People who think that since the European Union, Germany, and Ukraine are the cause of preventing the South Stream Project, then Russia might switching off the Gas to Germany completely, unless Germany has a Federal Election.
Very, very interesting Saker
thanks!
lots of movement on the chessboard as of late?
I am expecting a Turkey destabilization- really picking up speed next year and a coup in Ukraine, perhaps as early as Christmas/new year? Making way for a military dictatorhsip
Much craziness abounds, that’s for sure
That is for sure
” Though the Russian oil industry was privatised it mostly remained in Russian hands.”
Juridical relations and actual relations can be dissimilar.
Perhaps a pertinent question is – who was overseeing “privatisation” in Russia in 1993/4?
” (in the case of Gazprom, that he is actually its owner).”
As above but also define “ownership”.
“After Putin came to power in 2000”
There is often a obfuscation of power in being part of the posse rather than wearing the sheriff’s star.
If this is your opponents’ expectation/prejudgement it is particularly useful.
Perhaps pertinent questions to ask are:
Why in 1994 was there a “re-set” of US policy towards Russia – Senate Committee of Foreign Affairs deliberations late 1994 possibly adding illumination ?
What were the catalysts for this?
I suggest it would be naive like Dubya to think the US were the deciders, that Clinton was worried about the mid-term elections, or that Newt Gingrich was the bringer of light.
Understanding the 1990’s in Russia is illuminating as you note.
Good summary, Saker.
Quite a contrast to the NY Times headline “In Diplomatic Defeat, Putin Diverts Pipeline to Turkey”. Yep, they really said that. Somehow in the twisted “spin” of the NY Times finding an alternative market for the blockaded pipeline infrastructure you have already built and bringing a new ally into your corner is a “defeat”, while the now stranded pipeline investments of Austria, Serbia, Hungary and Bulgaria are a “victory”.
As you say, the Times nonsense about the US filling in for Russia as a gas supplier to the EU is a non-starter. The cost of compressing gas into LNG is very high, not to mention that the port infrastructures do not exist at either end, and the shipping cost is much greater than a pipeline.
Looks like the Eurocrats have just shot themselves in the foot again.
@ StevenStarr: Seconded.
Also, to paraphrase everyone’s favourite State Department cookie giving, rabble rouser, Vicky Nuland “Fuck the EU”.
This coming from one who lives there and is tired of seeing EU politicians shoot their countries in both feet and the head to appease their whore master, the USA.
Great analysis saker, I totally agree with your comments.
Será que este é o gatilho para uma divisão na zona do euro?
Meanwhile the western colonization of Ukraine is picking up steam. Three foreigners now in the Kiev government, no doubt handpicked by the State Department:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/the-new-ukrainians/
Kind regards,
Dutch
Well put. Just like to add:
1. Russia will still supply gas to southern Europe through Turkey, once EU is brought to heel. A hub on the Turkish border will be built for this purpose.
2. Frenzied and formidable attempts, by the Empire, to remove Erdogan can now be expected.
3. Russia has obtained a strategic wedge to pry Turkey from NATO/EU.
4. Would love Mr. Mercouris’ views on where this leaves Syria
Alexander Mercouris is the best English writing journalist in all things Russia that I know of, and he always makes his case rationally and convincingly, not merely throwing out claims, that you have to accept because they are printed in the paper of record or wherever.
When I browse the news and there’s an article by him I definitely read that one first.
Before, I was convinced the adjective “objective” was a mere invention of the Western PR(opaganda) industry. Mercouris has in fact rehabilitated that word for me – he is the least biased journalist I have come across.
Saker, you are indeed lucky – and so are we, the readers – to have him on your blog!
Honk
Double what Steven Star said. I’m going to be reading this a couple of times to make myself happy. Thank you THANK YOU!!! And I will send the link to family who I would otherwise never dare to inform ( I know what they are like) I know they will be able to absorb this.
I too found this very well presented and informative.
Thank you!
This episode, as ably described by The Saker, reminds me irresistibly of a moment in the book (and movie) “Shogun”. Having been captured by the Japanese in about 1600, the mainly Dutch crew of a trading ship are imprisoned in a pit with a bamboo grating above them. As a young samurai stands on the grating to explain their situation and the attitude of the Japanese authorities, one of the sailors defiantly cries out “I piss on you!” Without deigning to speak in reply, the samurai calmly unbuttons his trousers and sprays the whole lot of them below with actual piss. Then he turns and strolls away.
Very keen analysis, thank you for sharing. The European Union believes that she can have the Russian energy resources when she will want. I hope that Russia will not deliver ever either gas or oil in the Western Europe.
@ Saker
100% correct! Theren s nothing missing in your brilliant analysis. Europe is ,governed’ by a kindergarten, by pygmies. It makes one sad and depressed because these idiots destroy everything we had. And this happens in the name of ,friends and partners’ in criminal Washington D.C. And the people are powerless and have to look on how Europe slides down the slope.
Thank you for this excellent analysis.
great article. be interesting where you see khordokovsky in all of this. He was on euronews yesterday at the EU parliament. I assume he’s a fully paid up atlanticist and is manouevering into position as the US and EUs ‘replacement’ of choice if they get regime change. He’s been pretty quiet since he fled Russia, be interesting if you have any story on whats going on with him. There was a lot of sympathy for him in the west (bit like the pussy riot ferago) especially after he was jailed. Never really saw it that way myself, I saw him as another oligarch who raped Russia of its natural resources for his own personal gain then tried to undermine Putin. There are a lot of people in the west who have sympathy or a wry respect for Vladimir but also a lot who just want the truth of the matter before deciding. I see khordokovsky as dangerous and a traitor (and who can ever trust a traitor?) but I’m sure the americans love him. maybe I’m wrong, maybe he feels he was doing the bset thing for his country, maybe he’s naive? Handing the country on a plate to the US/EU doesnt seem like a good ethos to me. maybe you could give some detail in future podcast or post? great work BTW love your blog, totally essential for anyone interested in russian affairs, there is zero accurate info in european media. zero.
One suspects the Gulf states are none too happy about this development either… Cut off at the pass, as they say.
Wonderful analysis, thank you.
In other news, I literally laughed out loud when I read this:
—
“There are no legal grounds to compensate Bulgaria following Russia’s announcement the South Stream gas pipeline will not go ahead, a European Commission spokeswoman said on Tuesday, Reuters reported. “There is legally speaking no basis for compensation,” the spokeswoman, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, told reporters.”
“Bulgaria is a sovereign country, it makes the decisions about what is best for its citizens on its own.” – European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen
—
“Bulgaria is a sovereign country”… BWAHAHA!
The liberal political figure/activist Tatiana Montyan talks with Mozgovoi. No subtitles, though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=It0wqd1TdW4#t=13
It seems that they wrote a report on ideas.
Someone big blew up! That 10% drop in oil prices means someone got a margin call and being big enough had to close shop but not big enough to fail. This will ofcourse have a cascading effect. Oil might drop under $50 and maybe even lower. Remember oil went from $150 to $40 before. No one is sure who is doing it, we know the Saudi’s are the ones selling oil at any price.. But on whos orders? The US? shoot themselves in the foot? The Russians? The Chinese? China ofcourse control the commodity prices at various times. They dump their huge horde of stuff and crater the prices and then pick up the pieces.. They did it many times and with different commodities. But.. there is a huge problem now..
The melt-up in global “developed” bond markets is nothing short of incredible. German (0.70%), French (0.97%), Italian (2.03%), Spanish (1.90%), Portuguese (2.84%), Austrian (0.84%), Belgian (0.92%), Irish (1.38%) and Dutch (0.82%) yields all traded to record lows this week. With GDP surpassing 130% of GDP, Italian 10-year yields at 2%? French yields below 1% – with a huge debt load and big deficits as far as the eye can see? Japanese yields at a record low 0.41% (federal debt-to-GDP exceeding 250%)? What on earth have central bankers done to global markets? It’s worth noting that U.S. long-bond yields Friday fell below the October 15th “panic low” level, closing at a 19-month low 2.89%.
At this point, I view China as a real near-term wildcard. Inarguably, both Chinese end demand and finance were integral to the “Global Reflation Trade.” Supposedly, the Chinese boom was to provide robust commodities demand for years to come. Chinese companies have scoured the world for commodities-related investment. At the same time, the Chinese financial system played a major role in global commodities financing. What does the commodities collapse mean for Chinese financial stability, especially with stability already challenged by serious domestic issues.
Importantly, this powerful self-reinforcing U.S. to China to EM (“global government finance Bubble”) dynamic was possible because of the Chinese currency’s tight link to the U.S. dollar. This “peg” ensured that when finance flowed into China it would be easily converted into local currency balances at the PBOC, and then immediately recycled back to U.S. securities markets. The King of Dollar Pegs also created a powerful magnet for speculative flows. Why not borrow cheap and invest in higher-yielding securities (or finance commodities) in a currency tied to the dollar? Better yet, between June 2010 and January of this year the Chinese steadily revalued the renminbi higher against the dollar. In the past I referred to the renminbi/dollar as a “currency peg on steroids.” It made the SE Asian currency pegs from the nineties look tiny and feeble in comparison.
These dynamics now place China in a real bind. Already suffering from massive overcapacity, slim profits and heightened financial stress, Chinese manufactures are now exposed to a severe global slowdown and acute pricing/competitive pressures. The bloated Chinese financial sector could be even more vulnerable. Keep in mind that Chinese bank assets are projected (Autonomous Research’s Charlene Chu) to end 2014 with assets of $28 Trillion – an astounding triple the level from 2008. And don’t forget the now substantial Chinese “shadow banking” sector that has apparently been a bastion of high-risk lending.
http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/11/the-king-of-dollar-pegs.html#.VH28u9z5lg0
Dear Alexander Mercouris
Thank you very much for this beautiful article.
Greetings from Croatia
Liquefied Natural Gas promised riches for Canada and Australia only if a market can be found for the gas. Russia is years ahead of this development and Canada and Australia will not have a competitive price. BC has scaled down its LNG election promises and some companies are pulling out of some projects. Harper the Canadian Pillsbury Dough Boy, I mean Prime Minister, and Tony Baloney Abbott, the Australian Prime Minister have been the attack dogs against Putin attempting to securer a market for their LNG. Harper even refused to sign an anti Nazi UN resolution while at the same time he hugs the Ukrainian Nazis and sends to court Canadians who are Holocaust deniers. What a shameful man.
Anonymous said @ 03 December, 2014 11:51
“These Foreigners have been given vey quick Citizenship”
Limiting queues at the OVIR, probably.
The Zubatovschina didn’t turn out well and the statue by the Dneiper relates to a long time ago – not the lady with the sword though.
Shale gas is very expensive, much more so than shale oil. But it was enough to drop the price of gas way down when it became available.
To make LNG it takes a lot of energy, then you need pressurised canisters to transport it. Looks like huge nuclear power plants on top of ships, then they have to re gasify it on delivery since to transport it you need high pressure pipes thats dangerous. LNG costs like 4 times as much as gas extracted and pumped as gas. You buy LNG when you have no choice..
LNG has less energy and cost than LPG but it safer.. But if you have pipelines, you have to use LNG… LPG is dangerous to use in a city. But LPG is used in propane tanks for cooking and such. Once a city is designed it is very very expensive to change. Also people wont like LPG lines all over the place. If your LPG pilot light goes out, you have to be very careful to light it again. So Europe is stuck because they designed the place for NG. cant just import LPG from Qatar or SA cheaply to replace it. You have to pay Qatar double the price of LPG for LNG.
http://www.afsglobal.com/faq/gas-comparisons.html
I DID notice something though, in the announcement to the press by Putin and Erdogan. Putin did not look elated, more like resigned. I can’t help thinking he would have preferred to keep the Southstream. Anybody else notice this? Also the body language of both of them was not like they were buddy buddy, but a bit aloof. I might be wrong.
tony_hartin @tony_hartin · 5 hrs 5 hours ago
#Ukraine nuclear accident at Bloc No. 3 #Zaporizhye nuclear power plant. 1000 Megawatt reactor offline. Ukraine power crisis deepens
0 replies . 19 retweets 1 favourite
tony_hartin retweeted
Drak Doraleous @widar01 · 3 hrs 3 hours ago
@tony_hartin Block 3 IIRC is exactly the block that they were planning on installing US Westinghouse fuel rods in.
View conversation
0 replies . 2 retweets 2 favourites
tony_hartin @tony_hartin · 3 hrs 3 hours ago
RT @widar01 @tony_hartin Block 3 IIRC is exactly the block that they were planning on installing US Westinghouse fuel rods in.
So now the EUSSR will be dependent on Qatari gas if they can get the pipeline through Syria.
The EUSSR dependent on islamic gas.
Just as the Yanks wanted.
The further islamification of europe. More economic power and blackmail for islam.
Crazy.
Russia has done the right thing – as usual – looked after the interests of country and people.
Thanks to the axis of pure evil – USA/UK/EU the people of europe face a bleak future with islam in conctrol of its gas taps – albeit the brave fight by the Syrian government.
Own goal obviously.
And what the final game is – is hard to fathom.
I second the very first comment, by StevenStarr. I was suspicious of Mercouris after what Gordon Duff said about him being a neozionist, but have been watching his stuff and have seen nothing to confirm that opinion.
thanks, joe
MOSCOW BLOG: Russia prepares for $40 oil
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/moscow-blog-russia-prepares-40-oil
There is a remote possibility that these events could compel the EU to pressure Ukraine to ‘get its’ act together’. Of course this wold be a tectonic power shift and a return to some sort of independence the the EU project was designed to crush.
Alternatively, I can see fleets of thousands of US/NATO refueling tankers (converted to carry LNG) bringing to Europe enough love to save the day. Another improved version to the Berlin Airlift. Nuland could even drop bags of cookies to the freezing German children.
The US equity markets would go through the roof. Go USA!
The European Union has long showed itself to be the 2 groups of first class Northern Europeans, and second class southern Europeans.
Germany is the Most to Blame for this situation, and because Germany has placed sanctions on Russia based on Lies, and on wanting to Relive its Nazi Past, then Russia can sanction Germany by switching off all Russian Gas supplies to Germany.
If the European Union wants South Streams, then it should only on Russia’s terms and conditions, and they can take or leave it.
There could be Many Europeans who will boycott All German Goods and Services, unless Germany holds an immediate Federal Election.
Furthermore, Germany should tell the World that Slobodan Milosevic was in Fact Innocent in order to show the World that Germany has Renounced Nazism in 2014 at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/mar/21/tenquestionsonslobodanmilo , and at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/feb/12/warcrimes.comment .
There could be People who think that Russia should increase Oil Production, because the World will the need extra Oil once the Global Economy Inevitably Recovers, because being and acting with confidence about the Global Economic Recovery is one good way to help the Economy.
We know that the Economy goes in from strength to recession and back to recovery, and so the next phase is Global Economic Recovery.
Margie, the look on Lavrov’s face as he completed the deal was one of radiant joy. It was on Sputniknews yesterday.
This is a magnificent piece.
Turkey has been kept in the dark by the AZs, since it tried to enter the EU. In fact, the secular Turkey which was created by the Young Turks following the fall of the Otoman Empire, was very much of the making of theDonmeh cryptoJews of Salonnika, among them Chaim Arlozorov, founder of the Likud party. On Erdogan Islamists taking power, some compromise was reached, with Israel assisting Erdogan in its project of joining EU. With the obvious failure of it, Erdogan broke the hegemony of the Young Turks and set out a new policy which somewhat navigated between Iran as their best Asian neighbour, a project of reestablishing the Caliphate very much feared by Israel, and still leaving open the road to EU integration.
What this realignment will produce is a tension which will lead Erdogan to play a less comprehensive policy, with Russia becoming a more active player in defining its national status, and now being in a dominant player with regards to the Balkans, Austria and Hungary -back to the Austrian-Hungarian axis but now more controlled by Turkey as it was before its expulsion of the Balkans. So, we have the paradox of EU, which resisted Turkey’s accession due to its Islamic culture, now returning running the vital energy to this area. Of course, this will further produce a more marked wedge among EU, with the Balkans, Greece and Italy, realigning itself as separate with respect to Northern Europe. France with its rejection to Islam, will end navigating as an isolated middleman between North and Southern Europe. And Russia will beable to redesign an European alliance directed to the Balkans and the Mediterranean,
A very complex move, very rich in potentialities.
Thank you Saker, wonderful work.
Cordially,
A Barbaric Patagonian
This is a magnificent piece.
Turkey has been kept in the dark by the AZs, since it tried to enter the EU. In fact, the secular Turkey which was created by the Young Turks following the fall of the Otoman Empire, was very much of the making of theDonmeh cryptoJews of Salonnika, among them Chaim Arlozorov, founder of the Likud party. On Erdogan Islamists taking power, some compromise was reached, with Israel assisting Erdogan in its project of joining EU. With the obvious failure of it, Erdogan broke the hegemony of the Young Turks and set out a new policy which somewhat navigated between Iran as their best Asian neighbour, a project of reestablishing the Caliphate very much feared by Israel, and still leaving open the road to EU integration.
What this realignment will produce is a tension which will lead Erdogan to play a less comprehensive policy, with Russia becoming a more active player in defining its national status, and now being in a dominant player with regards to the Balkans, Austria and Hungary -back to the Austrian-Hungarian axis but now more controlled by Turkey as it was before its expulsion of the Balkans. So, we have the paradox of EU, which resisted Turkey’s accession due to its Islamic culture, now returning running the vital energy to this area. Of course, this will further produce a more marked wedge among EU, with the Balkans, Greece and Italy, realigning itself as separate with respect to Northern Europe. France with its rejection to Islam, will end navigating as an isolated middleman between North and Southern Europe. And Russia will beable to redesign an European alliance directed to the Balkans and the Mediterranean,
A very complex move, very rich in potentialities.
Thank you Saker, wonderful work.
Cordially,
A Barbaric Patagonian
This is a magnificent piece.
Turkey has been kept in the dark by the AZs, since it tried to enter the EU. In fact, the secular Turkey which was created by the Young Turks following the fall of the Otoman Empire, was very much of the making of theDonmeh cryptoJews of Salonnika, among them Chaim Arlozorov, founder of the Likud party. On Erdogan Islamists taking power, some compromise was reached, with Israel assisting Erdogan in its project of joining EU. With the obvious failure of it, Erdogan broke the hegemony of the Young Turks and set out a new policy which somewhat navigated between Iran as their best Asian neighbour, a project of reestablishing the Caliphate very much feared by Israel, and still leaving open the road to EU integration.
What this realignment will produce is a tension which will lead Erdogan to play a less comprehensive policy, with Russia becoming a more active player in defining its national status, and now being in a dominant player with regards to the Balkans, Austria and Hungary -back to the Austrian-Hungarian axis but now more controlled by Turkey as it was before its expulsion of the Balkans. So, we have the paradox of EU, which resisted Turkey’s accession due to its Islamic culture, now returning running the vital energy to this area. Of course, this will further produce a more marked wedge among EU, with the Balkans, Greece and Italy, realigning itself as separate with respect to Northern Europe. France with its rejection to Islam, will end navigating as an isolated middleman between North and Southern Europe. And Russia will beable to redesign an European alliance directed to the Balkans and the Mediterranean,
A very complex move, very rich in potentialities.
Thank you Saker, wonderful work.
Cordially,
A Barbaric Patagonian
“anonymous”
Lovely essay, if a bit optimistic, by Mercouris.
Thinking of the heroic Partisans of Novorussia, who are fighting, greatly outnumbered, and under ever increasing bombardment. And the great destruction of civilian infrastructure by the Fascists.
Furthermore, it appears that the US/Kiev/proto Nazi soldiers are better trained and armed, many more of them Elite professional soldiers, many from other imperialist countries, such as the United States and England, or imperialist puppets, such as Poland.
The Partisans are holding their own, against these elite troops, but they must not be forced to fight the imperialist powers and their puppets, alone…
Peter J. Antonsen
For the Democratic Republic!
IMAGINE
“the German government prepares for a long conflict with Russia.” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the crisis with Russia could take more than a decade,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/us-army-sends-100-bradley-and-abrams-tanks-eastern-europe-deter-russian-aggression
Meanwhile: RosNeft and Total just purcaced controlling interest in an oil refinery in GERMANY.