by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi
In a previous article titled “A Muslim Spring” published on the Saker, on the 12th of June 2017, the analysis of the then recent Qatar standoff took us into the direction of whether new Middle Eastern alliances were taking form and old ones dismantling.
Developments since then reveal that the distinctive parts of the new embryos are already differentiating and emerging. The initial article foresaw the formation of two new alliances in this manner:
1. Team One: America/NATO, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and perhaps Egypt.
2. Team Two: Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Qatar and perhaps Egypt.
If the roles are played properly, “Team Two” is potentially a dream team, but realistically, it carries a latent danger; the unpredictability of Erdogan and the fact that he cannot be trusted.
The divisions are deepening and the polarizations are becoming more plausible by the day as team members grow closer. What the initial article was unable to analyse adequately at its early mark in time, was the stand of Saudi Arabia and the USA from one end, and that of Turkey from the other. It wasn’t till recently that it became clear that the USA is not trying to find a way to include Turkey, or at best appease it, but in fact is targeting Turkey and pushing it into a corner, with a bit of help from the hapless Saudi allies.
The USA has realized it can no longer achieve its ambitions in the region by working with Turkey and has now made the relationship with Saudi Arabia its key pivot to salvage what’s left of any hope to score a win in the region. If a win cannot be achieved, at least the mischievous duo will try to prevent Syria and Russia from clinching their win.
After the many warnings that Erdogan has given the USA, that the USA has to choose between being an ally of Turkey or an ally of the Kurds, the difference in aspirations and interests was insurmountable, and the USA seems to have made up its mind, albeit covertly, and decided to dump Turkey seeking its own agenda in Syria; which is totally incompatible with that of Turkey. Erdogan knows this, and he is not going to take this sitting down.
The unprovoked and unwarranted Saudi and GCC sanctions against Qatar, which came almost immediately after the historic and infamous Saudi-Trump visit, was the final pilot light that the USA and Al-Saud lit up in order to test how the new alliance is panning out. But the aim of that move was not only to punish Qatar for its own stand on its relationships with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, but to also put Erdogan on the spot, given that Turkey has a small military base in Qatar; and hence would see any intervention in Qatar as tantamount to meddling with Turkey.
Turkey on its part, was more than happy to be virtually offered a new export market on a silver platter, in which (together with Iran) all of Qatar’s needs were met, mainly food, which Qatar produces none of. But in capitalizing on the export opportunity, Erdogan has given the Saudis and Americans a message not to mess with him, and that he knows what they are doing.
This whole scenario has the hallmarks of America’s last ditched attempt to take victory away from Syria; however, in doing so, the Americans are in fact giving Erdogan an excuse to act solely on Turkish interests, even if this means military confrontation with pro-American forces on the ground; ie the Kurdish PYG, and perhaps even US troops down the track.
What cannot be overemphasized, no matter how much this statement is repeated almost in every article over the last year or so, Erdogan will never allow an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. Even if the events in Syria had taken a different turn a few years back and had Syria lost to the terrorists, and even if the Russian and Iranian help did not come and Syria had capitulated and was shredded to pieces, Erdogan still wouldn’t have allowed for an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. As it has been reiterated in several articles on many occasions two years ago or so when Erdogan had the upper hand in northern Syria, his whole objective of wanting to create an 80 km wide buffer zone, was in fact to dislocate the Kurds and replace them with Syrian refugees who were already in Turkey and loyal to him. With that plot foiled, he has no other current choice but to work with Syria and Russia on his common objectives with them, or act solely and have a much bigger and more insidious plan.
The one thing that must be kept in mind is that Turkey has a formidable army; a mighty force to be reckoned with. As a NATO member, Turkey has the second largest ground force after the USA, and if Sultan Erdogan moves his troops south in a big way, depending on how the “Dream Team” alliance is drawn, if there is such team at all, and how the strategies and tactics are established and who can guarantee(s) them, there is no telling as to how far he will go.
Being stubborn and self-conceited on one hand, and highly ambitious on the other, Erdogan is not one to be trusted, neither by Russia nor by Syria. He may even feel too humiliated to join efforts with Syria after his long history of hostility towards her President and people, and decide to go back to his original dream of 2011 and move into Syria himself against the Kurds, and even perhaps against Syria and President Assad, and this time, without the “help” of the Saudis and Americans and their crony terrorists. After all, those former allies proved to be more of a liability to Erdogan than an asset, and this time around, he would be after Al-Saud, using Syria as a corridor.
Yes, it is not at all unfathomable and unimaginable that the USA and Saudi Arabia are unwittingly pushing Erdogan to go as far south as Mecca and beyond. After all, has it not been his ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire? If anything, Erdogan would be praying that someone offers him a justification to put Mecca under Turkey’s control once again. His dismay with the Saudis may be utilized by him to generate a wave of discontent within the Muslim World against the custodians of the holiest of all Muslim shrines, focusing on how they have allowed the holy land to be subdued by American “infidels”, and hence use this as a pretext to launch a major offensive.
The irony here is that America will not be able to come to the help of Al-Saud without risking a huge wave of protest in the Muslim World. If Al-Saud find themselves having to ask America to protect Mecca from a Turkish invasion, they would be signing their own death warrant, because non-Muslims are not allowed in the area.
Erdogan may alternatively not go all the way to Mecca and resurrect his previous plan to create the 80 km buffer zone. Either way, if Turkey moves a huge number of troops into Syria in an all-out onslaught, the Syrian Army will not be able to resist it for long, and Russia will be forced to either escalate her presence, risking a confrontation with Turkey, or seek another alternative which is not foreseeable at this stage.
As for Israel, it is on good terms with Turkey, and in the event of a massive Turkish invasion east of its border, it will sit back and watch, and if anything sigh with relief to see Turkey “cleaning up a mess” that no one else could in this magnitude.
Iran will find itself in a difficult dilemma. On one hand, it will be happy to see Al-Saud getting hammered by Turkey, but its relationship with Syria will stipulate that it will have to decide to either confront Turkish troops, or find some other resolution.
Will a compromise resolution mean allowing Turkish troops a corridor in eastern Syria, an interim corridor that reaches south deep into Saudi territory without having to encroach on Syria’s sovereignty in Damascus? At the moment, this scenario seems unlikely, but it cannot be zeroed out.
Egypt will probably sit back and watch, and at the end, join hands with the winner of it all. President Sisi will most likely stay disengaged; despite his current pro-Saudi stance, which is mainly in response to his discontent with Qatar harbouring Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leaders.
This is why it must be said again, that much of what happens in Syria and to Syria, largely depends on Russia. At all possible cost therefore, the Kurdish situation must be contained, if it is not too late already, in order not to give Erdogan the excuse to act unilaterally. The first line of defence in averting this situation in the first place was to work with the Kurds to keep them away from striking deals with America and Israel. This could have been achieved by doing all that was possible to keep them under the roof of Damascus and thereby pulling the rug from underneath America’s and Israel’s feet. With rightful diligence, it is not too late to reverse this status quo, even though on the surface it looks like a fait accompli, but in reality, it shouldn’t be. But if time proves that this train had already been missed, Erdogan’s train must not be allowed to take off on its own.
For the “Dream Team” alliance to work and work effectively, the reins of the initiative must be jointly held by all the regional powers; namely Syria, Iran and Turkey; under Russian auspices and guarantee. This is the only way for the inter-secular Sunni/Shiite Muslim Spring to spring into success.
this is a flawed analysis, why would erdogan go for mecca, makes no sense.
he would make enemies syria, iran, russia, jordan, iraq, saudis. usa/west – all at once.
more realistically, erdogans goal is – no kurdish state anywhere and become
a transit hub for russian/iranian/qatari gas pipelines + be part of OBOR –
make profit and develop the country., live peacefully with neighbors and trade with them.
Erdogan has repeatedly demonstrated that many of his decisions don’t make sense to anyone except Erdogan.
That makes sense to me: return to successful 20th century Turkish policy of industrial investment and “Zero problems with neighbours”.
I concur with your line of thought. In fact, reading the article at first I thought I was reading a joke about Turkish military or Edorgan. Mecca has, is and will always be a red line for any forces outside Saudi Arabia, the Saudis have exploited these on many occasions for propaganda purpose like when the Houthis started hitting the kingdom with Burqan missiles the kingdom authority claimed they were trying to hit the holy land as a ploy to invoke the sympathy of the Muslim world. So this appears more like a hatred of Edorgan and Islamism taken too far.
Are the Hashemites in Jordan just going to sit and watch on their pile of sand while Turkey takes over their lost Mecca? How do you get to Mecca from Turkey? Do you expect the Israel’s to wave as the Turks march by?
check the geography. The land way to Mecca leads through a piece of Jordan near Aquaba
Team One: Saudis are as unreliable as the Erdogan/Turkey.
U.S.A./Israel have certainly ‘promised’ sovereign territory to the Kurds; this one move might really bite them back, as it has the potential to ‘turn’ even Iraq.
As Russia/Iran Team Two continue to gain credibility, after a meteoric re-emergence of Russia on the global/Middle Eastern stage (following the Chechen win), an alternative has emerged, where there was none for over a generation. People everywhere are sick of the Empire already, even as it consolidates power, it is strangling the host countries, and populist new/novel immune responses are, even now, being created, resistance is inevitable!
The (seemingly to me) quite overt back-stabbing and alienation of Turkey is a little perplexing, and it seems only to lead to a dead end.
Much like Libya, Turkey is key to holding back a veritable tidal wave of destitute Asian/African immigration; in their weakened, dis-coordinated state, they will likely sooner, rather than later, resort to overt violence and mass killings will result, creating a cascade effect, resentment by a huge population base with nothing to lose, bother trying to get to Europe and already in Europe; fear in the host countries, and a viscous circle of reifying polarization.
But it will be disruptive in the Middle East, as the granting of partition of Iraq, (and they’ll probably just include portions of Syria, potentially right up to the Turkish border).
But there is a strange trend of missing components on the geopolitical landscape right now, and it seems a comparatively recent phenomenon. Until… not so long ago, the consolidating empire made cogent decisions/moves on the global chess board, now they seems in disarray, and not really even understanding what they are doing. Perhaps their masters are not really sharing their ultimate strategy.
I’m thinking of the NATO troop build up in the Baltics, and the high-speeds game of chicken the American leadership is engaging, down a dead-end alleyway.
Let’s hope it can, but perhaps provisioning for the potential outcome would be prudent.
“…Erdogan will never allow an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border….“.
If it would be prudent for Putin to initiate ‘terms of engagement’ in Kurdish Syria, if/when the empire gives it to the Kurds (undoubtedly illegally), for co-ordinated response, then… I bet it’s been done, and is progressing even more galvanized by the out-of-left-field move on Qatar.
Note how this move will necessarily cause conflict, but no really convincing outcome, besides all out strife in the Middle East, a strategy one Middle Eastern country has in their ruling party’s manifesto. Co-incidentally?!
How could the empire give up the second largest national army in NATO, and the largest ‘western-aligned’ one in Eurasia to their newly created boogie-man/country, without confidence of nuclear option magnitudinal advantage?
I can’t see Turkey waging an aggressive war, outside Kurdish Syria, conditionally authorized by the legitimate government of Syria to ‘assist with combating the terrorists’; and this only with Russian/Iranian guarantees against a protracted Turkish presence A lunge at Mecca/Arab Middle East would likely turn the Arab nations back against Turkey; memories of the Ottoman servitude seems enduring.
I disagree about the potential explicit involvement of Irael. All of these key plays on the dream team live in a different world from the sadly brainwashed citizenry of the empire host nations, they know the roles and the aggressive actors on the side of the empire, even the one(s) playing the neurotically covert strategy; even in the host-country residents, the deception is only under the thinnest veils of suppression in the sub-conscious minds of the people. Even a modest truthshock will awaken these perceptions and associated resentment at being manipulated
This will undoubtedly result in steep increases in domestic unrest in host nations, undermining the global actions.
Egypt is a vassal state of Israel; the Mossad turned Sisi a long time ago, and actively enabled him to attain power.
Be that as it may, I agree that the establishment of a viable alternative will result in internal leadership strife, as top-level movers will wish to at least consider alternative allegiances after so many years of emasculating vassalage. It could even be expedited with the action against Qatar, as it is difficult to believe that all of the Egyptian top brass are completely on-board with the action, and Egypt’s participation.
Your point on Team Two’s turning the Kurds,is in my view a doubtful proposition.
However, Russia’s involvement seems durable, and in having initiated all of the changing dynamics in the Middle East, and in the context of the empire’s ongoing antics, which seem,… somewhat demented, Russia/Putin has realized before now understood that the creation of a robust alliance in the Middle East is crucial to Russia’s strategic global capability, and Russia’s strategic global capability is now necessary for even in a medium term, their own sovereign viability.
So I think the Russian/Putin significant ongoing role in the Middle East is durable, at least in the medium term (5-7 years), but likely at a strategic event horizon (20-50 years), since if they are clever, they know that their renewed friend of China certainly is looking at the global machinations in a 50 year horizon, and they have seemed quite remarkably clever since ’99.
While Erdogan is certainly somewhat compromised by power-high, he would have to be completely out of his mind to think he could barge through to Mecca without unifying global opposition; Russia/Iran would be constrained in supporting Turkey; Turkey would be, one way or another, decimated; the ‘Dream Team’s position would be greatly weakened.
As a matter of fact, one of the empire’s only routes to success would be a such an ill-advised move by Erdogan/Turkey. In which case, one could foresee ultimate difficulties for Erdogan, one way or another.
Yet, in the context of Russia and Islam, connecting the dots and discerning the future (/russia-and-islam-connecting-the-dots-and-discerning-the-future/) one could also see the potential that Russia wouldn’t mind securing their good relations with their sizable Muslim population further secured with a (slightly) early end to the regime in Riyadh.
Regardless of Putin’s challenges in maintaining the ‘Dream Team’, team Two seems substantially more viable in any conventional confrontation in comparison to the Empire (Team One).
So Assad didn’t do what the Godfather of Kurdistan Ghassan wrote about in his manifesto last year about federalizing Syria and now the countrys ruined, its all his fault, blame Assad for being such a bad nationalist Arab leader in not selling out to the Amero-Zionist Kurds right?
——–
This is why it must be said again, that much of what happens in Syria and to Syria, largely depends on Russia. At all possible cost therefore, the Kurdish situation must be contained, if it is not too late already, in order not to give Erdogan the excuse to act unilaterally. The first line of defence in averting this situation in the first place was to work with the Kurds to keep them away from striking deals with America and Israel. This could have been achieved by doing all that was possible to keep them under the roof of Damascus and thereby pulling the rug from underneath America’s and Israel’s feet.
Valid appoints about Turkey I guess but overlooking ( for reasons I can’t fathom) the real story.
The real enemy of Syria is and always has been Israel and Zionist controlled American military power. Now the US has 7 military bases in Syria, is bombing the eastern quarter of the country at will and unchallenged and is talking about a no fly zone.
People have been very reluctant to acknowledge this. The Syrians may defeat ISIS but then be destroyed by the US and Israel.
Boris Dolgov, a Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, said, in a report dated today, at a roundtable discussion dedicated to the fifth round of the intra-Syrian talks in Astana. the following –
http://tass.com/world/955045
“The main objective of the United States in Syria is not the fight against the Islamic State.
It’s toppling the unwanted regime of Bashar al-Assad and destroying Syria,” the expert said. “That’s also Israel’s objective. If the Assad regime is toppled, that means that Iran’s ally has been removed.”
“Weakening Iran as much as possible is the goal of Israel and the United States as Israel’s strategic ally,” Dolgov stressed.
The Russian expert also pointed to the actions of the Kurds supported by Washington.
“Before the beginning of the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operation, the US and its allies tried to eliminate Bashar al-Assad with the help of the armed Islamist opposition, including the IS. Now it is trying to do that with the help of Kurds,” he said. According to Dolgov, the US wants Raqqa to be captured by Kurds and plans to help them create an enclave with big autonomy rights and, ultimately, an independent state in Syria. “The US is using the Kurdish factor to achieve its goals,” Dolgov concluded.” End of quote
Far from being “nearly over”, the war is now ramping up and the target is Iran. Any negotiations the US takes part in with Russia are simply designed to waste time and muddy the waters. They mean nothing. Trump is a complete irrelevance.
Israel is driving the US to war.
look at the other thread from his earlier article and you’ll see many people challenging him about the same thing, Ghassan doesn’t want to talk about Ziostan and this is because his kurds are allied with them. If he attacks Israel, he attacks his beloved Kurds which he willnt do
/syrias-once-avoidable-new-battle/
@Zena,
Quite some good points.
However, I have some doubts whether it will completely work out like that, because Russia and Iran are quite aware that they are the next targets, they are present in Syria and acting accordingly.
Next to that, I think that the US forces are quite reluctant to avoid a clash with the Russian forces.
To illustrate this, take a look at a short clip from a Congressional hearing with general Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff about imposing a no-fly-zone over Syria (in that time Hillary Clinton was constantly yelling that, meaning an exclusive bombing zone).
Just look in his eyes. Maybe it’s just close of ‘fear’, but at least it is cautiousness and ‘seriously warning’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmE9Jj-rEVs
Amen. Your analysis is spot on, Zena.
Thank you, Ghassan and Intibah Kadi for your article. It shares some interesting insights, but for some things I don’t really agree.
Dividing the Middle East into ‘good guys’ and ‘bad guys’ doesn’t work there.
Turkey is a complicated nation. It is a geopolitical important NATO member, while at the same time it has to maintain a good neighbourship with Russia. Turkey is flirting with the EU, while at the same time is it reshaping from the secular nation that Ataturk once founded, into a pure muslim nation.
Take for instance this: http://www.epochtimes.de/politik/europa/tuerkei-beschlagnahmt-50-urchristliche-kirchen-nur-spitze-des-eisbergs-a2157206.html?meistgelesen=1
Turkey has confiscated 50 Christian churches and monasteries (mostly Syrian-orthodox) to change them into mosques (sorry, it is in German).
Try to imagine that a western-European nation would confisquate a mosque to change that into churches. The whole political correct press would be screaming, and shrieking Social Justice Warriors would stream into the streets.
I believe that Turkey would interfere in Syria to prevent the forming of a Kurdish statelet, but only after consulting Russia -and maybe the US forces as well.
Invading Saudi Arabia? No way. The KSA, or better said the House of Saud, is essential for the USA. They guarantee the petrodollar, whereby oil is always sold in dollars, of which it derives something of value. Of itself it’s close to worthless (after the complains of Trump to Germany, that the USA is importing far more German cars than in the reverse, German minister Sigmar Gabriel simply gave the response ‘first, start building decent cars’). The flipside of this, that the KSA is military protected by the USA.
To illustrate this, Iraq once invaded Kuwait (after a ‘green light’ of the US ambassador, I still think this was a trap for the long time strategy).
In no time the Iraqi forces were standing at the Saudi border in the north-east (that’s where the large Saudi oil fields are). In that time a school friend of mine was living in that area, together with her husband and their children. They (all expats) were immediately evacuated, in large caravanes of buses, while suppressing media attention.
She told me that in Ryad there was the most incredible invasion of soldiers and materials, all heading for the north east.
You think the USA will just yawn and let this happen when Turkey is at its borders? I don’t think so.
The only possibility I see, is when the House of Saud has collapsed and thereby also the Hegemon.
This can’t be zeroed out. The crazy blocking of Qatar is already backfiring. Inverse Midas Mohammed bin Salman at work. There were ultimatums given at Qatar, that were written to be refused. They were forgotten to add a few lines, beginning with ‘or else’. Qatar has already stated to the UAE, that their electricity system runs on Qatari gas that they are still delivering. No electricity will mean in a few months the leaving of all business in Dubai.
Thereby, not only the KSA can pay insurgents to start messsing up to start the wanted ‘regime change’, Qatar can do that too. For instance in… the KSA.
Quite some people in the KSA are not that happy with a lavishly living royal family, of which many princes are living the good life, not quite wahhabi style, in the London night life.
Or the Hegemon itself will collapse, due to heavy losses and/or a large humiliation in e.g a confrontation with Iran or the DPRK.
Yes, the USA has already been fighting a war in a nation divided in north and south, bordering China. That was Vietnam. That ended up nice, did it? The Hegemon didn’t collapse then, but that were other times. No unipolar world, no neocons striving at destroying their claimed ‘colonies’.
If those things happen (but than we are reading other articles here) I grant you that Turkey might start such an adventure. But for now, no.
All roads lead to Tel Aviv via Mecca. I believe this analysis is dead on. Erdogan and the Turkish Ottoman mentality that drives his power base has now aligned with Russia in the central purpose of eliminating the al saud vassals.
The sauds are the primary tool of the zionists in the ME – the others Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait fall into a gray zone of usefulness – each with their own internal political conditions that make reliability doubtful in the long term. However, the sauds are entirely dependent for their existence on the good graces of the US – which of course is a puppet of the entity.
The smartest move right now is to cut a deal with the resistance and specifically Russia to take a trip to Mecca and Medina – effectively wiping out the entity that is KSA. Leaving only one other entity in the ME – occupied Palestine would now be completely isolated. Unable to project influence across the ME with their mercs and cash carpetbaggers – leaving of course Erdogan to take on that roll.
Iran may not like Erdogan but they would be very happy to be rid of the medieval sand muppets who have caused so many problems in the ME on behalf of their zionist masters. With the kleptocracy out of the way – next stop free Palestine.
Updates:
Quneitra.
“… have not had access to the casualties nbrs of the Syria allied forces but it seems high.
There were reports on the al Qaeda side of hundreds of KIA/WIA but no split. One confirmed terrorists killed was from IDF. Will keep checking on the nbrs and as soon as I get anything I’ll post it.”
Al Sukhna.
“… Al Hail gas field will be announced liberated today by the MoD, but it in fact under fire control for several days after the SAA took control of ar Hamamim hill, de mining etc. is on going. Doubayat gas field is next in a day or so.
Several days ago, the SAA took control of Tulūl al Hayl, it is a small hill but it gives fire control of a unpaved road, that is in fact vital for the Der ez Zor siege liberation, this road goes all the way to the deep desert and into to crossroad that leads to Der ez Zor and to Mayaden, controlling this cross section if vital to hold ISIS aways from the SAA flanks when advancing to Der ez Zor.
The red line in the map below guides you on the unpaved road, if you zoom in to the max you will be able to see a glimpse of the road, Tulul al Hayl is located where the X is.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.572733&lon=39.020004&z=11&m=b&gz=0;388737487;345597284;0;0;4147338;692420&show=/36968198/Tulūl-al-Hayl-(379m)
Another aspect of this advance is to control both al Hail and Doubayat gas field, that gives you access to another road, following the gas pipeline directly to Der ez Zor, the best straight line possible and by passes al Sukhanah city but getting into the highway way ahead of it.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.991754&lon=39.336548&z=9&m=b&gz=0;389025878;346411172;0;0;11206054;6930556&show=/36968198/Tulūl-al-Hayl-(379m)
Mountains northeast of Palmyra.
“… To attack al Sukhanah, controlling the hills is a must, the 5th Corps and Hizballah are doing that while advancing in the heavily mined and full of IEDs highway, the SAA has reached today the small sites of Ḩulayḩilah and Bi’r al Hawz Hulayḩilah, meaning the battle for Qubbat Arak is about to start, this is the last important site before Sukhanah, but even before approaching al Sukhanah, the oil and gas fields west of it will have to be liberated as the NW hills that protect the city and the road from the north. Al Sukhanah will have to be approach very much like Palmyra, controlling key hills and exits while forcing ISIS to evac from the last road, see map below:
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.846212&lon=38.825340&z=12&m=b&gz=0;387429428;347657301;336456;1362518;0;0;2217864;941463
We can see the advance in the last few days are leading to controlling both roads, north and SE and hills NW of the city, this is not a large city, in fact it is much smaller than Palmyra.
Deir Ezzor.
“… It is extremely likely that the SAA and allies will storm and fight for al Sukhanah but another group will speed ahead to Der ez Zor, I am positive Der ez Zor will be reached within July, it is a stretch objective but a very needed one for the besieged civilians and soldiers, and for the future of Syria.”
Qalamoun Reconciliation.
“… Reconciliation is advancing very fast in eastern Qalamoun, as we brought to Syrper few days ago. It seems most of the cities inside the pocket are agreeing to the terms and soon it will be fully settled, this time no green buses.
This is a large area but only 4 cities and some small hamlets, with Jairoud, Dumayr, Nasiriyah and Rubaybah as the key ones. Their “revolution” is over for years, the pocket was pacified with agreements back in 2013, only recently there was an attempt to advance against ISIS toward the direction of Busayri crossroad to link with the US terrorists, but that was short lived since the SAA took the whole area in central Syria in a week, now they know they are isolated and no future but to accept a peaceful reconciliation, they have zero strategic importance for all side, are surrounded by SAAF airbase and SAA military bases, and can only gain to join back the Syrian society and get trade back in and out so wealth and progress return to the pocket.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.788279&lon=36.865997&z=11&m=b&show=/36395631/Eastern-Qalamoun-pockets-(SNC)
Reconciliation is at full speed within Syria, as mentioned few times before. Daraa, Suweida, Eastern Qalamoun pocket, northern Homs pocket and Afrin. The latter is on-going since the Russians and some SAA went there to establish their post, few months ago, progress has been made since then, but it is always facing set backs to the military demands by the YPG militia, it has been tough to find a middle ground and lots of weapons are involved among the population. This issue will be the same all over Syria, how to reduce the amount of weapons from so many militias & terrorists.”
More updates:
Russia’s Bombing Campaign.
“… Yesterday marked the day the Russian long distance bombers came back to Syria to support the elimination of ISIS in the critical fronts such as northeast Hama and Der ez Zor.
The bombers mark the start of a major offensive, on going near Salamiyah-Ithriyah road. Several sites where liberated already and we will near much more about the multiple fronts that were initiated since 2 days ago. The map below indicates the 2 boxes with on going battles and advances.
By now, the SAA and allies are taking critical hills that will render strategic advantage and fire control over many villages. We will hear daily results from this offensive, there are a lot of soldiers on this offensive, it will be bloody but swift, ISIS has strong defences all over, but not enough terrorists to defend it. So far ISIS has used many VBIEDs, US TOWs and guerrilla warfare in ambushes, some ambushes ISIS did a week ago inflicted heavy losses to the SAA and allies. The arrival of the Desert Hawks with new toys and Liwa al Quds will guarantee some qualitative storm troops in the Salamiyah-Ithriyah front line, and results are showing it already.”
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.953493&lon=37.532043&z=10&m=b&gz=0;372697448;346625815;2362060;5589207;2458190;4635048;3817749;5072978;3076171;5735038;617980;4775436;0;4298019;164794;3432340;947570;3837188;590515;4825970;1016235;3859673;878906;609734;755310;0;1991271;96006;1702880;987769
East Ghouta.
“… RGs reinforcements are pouring into Ain Terma, Zamalka and Jobar, with the ceasefire in the southern front more soldiers will be transferred back to East Ghouta.
Results are clear, daily advances deep into terrorists’ held territory, this battle may cut the terrorists in East Ghouta from any contact with the city of Damascus, rendering them without any strategic importance for their funders and financiers. This is most likely the last vital battle fought in East Ghouta before a major reconciliation and surrendering.
Due to the urban aspect of this battle is really hard to follow gains, but the RGs have made significant progress (red box below) and is now expanding its safety perimeter near the vital highway that crosses Jobar, once this highway is safe and all tunnels beneath it destroyed, it will be Barzeh/Qaboun all over again, Jobar will collapse and Zamalka together with it.”
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.511057&lon=36.347151&z=15&m=b&gz=0;363348770;335022720;0;55465;46348;152611;146770;93037;74243;0
Qatari Saudi Infighting.
“… By the way, Qatar paid terrorists resumed their fight with KSA paid terrorists inside East Ghouta, this is music to SAA’s ears.”
I recommend this article: https://southfront.org/qatar-crisis-spreads-africa/
It elaborates on how militarized the region has become and how much the oil Sheikhs and Turkey are vying for influence in North East Africa. We know about Saudi-UAE conflicts in Yemen and how the regional powers are involved in Yemen. But in Uganda, Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti we see the same players
Syria: The Chemical Weapon “Spin” Based on Lies, Bias and Fake Forensics
https://thewallwillfall.org/2017/06/20/syria-the-chemical-weapon-spin-based-on-lies-bias-and-fake-forensics/
Kenneth O`Keefe on the Syrian conflict. Hard truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=st05PWCypLQ&t=328s
Syrian girl: Trump attacks Syria, and this could be the start of WW3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsAaVqVxMoo
Author of this text obviously thinks that The Saker’s readers have the brain of the pigeons and memory of the fly.
Not so long ago the same author whitewashed Kurdish Manifesto and Kurdish federalization attempt presenting the Kurdish separatist moves as probably positive trends that could bring to Syria as he claimed: “Silver lining” or Golden opportunity, and even – the Master plan:
Namely in his article /kurdish-autonomy-partition-or-master-plan/ author clearly stated:
“There are more ways than one in which Kurds can play a huge role in all of this, and if the cards are played correctly and intelligently, a Kurdish autonomous zone in Syria can herald the beginning of a whole new era and an end to the infamous Sykes-Picot accord on a frontier that was last on the agenda.
All territory south of the Taurus Mountains is in reality Syrian. The mountain chain is the geographical barrier that separated the two nations for centuries, and it wasn’t till after the fall of the Ottoman Empire that some regions south of the mountain were considered as part of Turkey. Turkey therefore did not only get away with snatching Cilicia and Iskenderun from Syria, but also the entire region south of the Taurus Mountains.
A couple of years ago or so, President Assad declared that the truce in the Golan has expired and that the door for resistance is now open. He added that at a time of her own choosing, Syria is going to launch the battle of liberation of occupied territories. Did he also include an intention to liberate Cilicia, Iskenderun and Northern Syria (ie south of the Taurus Mountains)? He possibly did.
A conventional war will be very hard to plan for and execute for Syria to reclaim its territory lost to Turkey. However, a Kurdish autonomous zone can, and hopefully with much less bloodshed and human suffering. But how?
…
Kurds are now on the rise, and the euphoria of winning their fight against Daesh has been echoed by the global accolade they are receiving from an array of parties; including the traditional rivals USA and Russia.
When Kurds living in Turkey suffer more brutality and genocidal attacks perpetrated on them by the Turkish military eventually look over the fence and see their brothers and sisters in Syria living in peace, prosperity and dignity, they will want to seek similar privileges. The harsher Erdogan deals with them, the more they will want to break away from Turkey.
So whether a huge or limited civil war erupts in Turkey, or none whatsoever, if the Kurds see in the Syrian Kurdish autonomy experiment a model for them to follow or join, eventually, no one can stop them; not even Turkey.”
==============
So author not only failed to condemn Kurdish separatism but saw in it an golden opportunity for a civil war in Turkey where Turkish Kurds should split from Turkey attaching “historical Syrian lands” under the Damascus roof!!!!
Author continues:”Either way, the Syrian Kurdish autonomy is going to create new dynamics and generate changes. But those changes do not at all necessarily have to be negative as many fear. The odds suggest otherwise, and no one in his/her right mind can expect any member of the trilateral Russian/Syrian/Kurdish coalition to dump the others at the eve of victory, at the time when they should be celebrating their combined victory.”
IN his next article /syrian-turkish-border-security-check-point-taurus/, author elaborates more the “reunification of Greater Syria mentioning SSNP pary old goals of Greater Syria said:
“With or without any such proposal for federation, Syria should take a leading role and try to capitalize on the situation north of its borders. The time has never been more opportune for Syria to act on this front.
With Russia on her side, with an impending military victory and with turmoil within Turkey, Syria has a golden opportunity to win the hearts and minds of Syrian Kurds living south of Taurus.
As mentioned in the previous article, if those Kurds see their cousins enjoying privileges they don’t have, if they see themselves persecuted and bombed by Erdogan’s troops whilst their cousins are living in peace, prosperity and have the respect they have earned and deserve, they will naturally gravitate towards it.”
One interesting thing is that the interview in Sputnik which Ekaterina Blinova, Sputnik journalist made with Ghassan Kadi under the title “Kurdish Federalization: Trojan Horse or Golden Opportunity for Syria” is completely removed from Sputnik, which is almost precedence.
It happened obviously after the climate between Russia and Turkey changed from foes to friends, so Sputnik found that article inappropriate. Yet in the webarchive we can find the traces of this on the link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160808052929/https://sputniknews.com/politics/20160326/1037022838/kurds-federalization-syria.html
The removal of this doomed interview by Sputnik, which I strongly condemned and criticized at the time, shows clearly how wrong decision of Sputnik was to publish that failed “analysis”.
Now, it this last article, Ghassan Kadi actually shamelessly changed his stances actually using the words from my critics on his previous analyses, hoping that his readers simply have the memory of the fly.
Let me re-post my critics written in March 2016:
“With due respect but this option No. 4 of “silver lining” is nothing but a wishful thinking. Comparing Crimea with this situation is not applicable- Crimea after the referendum decided to join mighty Russia. Who on Earth could object it and try to prevent it by force? To start a war with Russia because of Crimea? It would be an absurd.
But whatever this “wishful thinking” about Kurds in the historical northern borders of Syria suggests, it is also an absurd that Turkey, which is military mighty country, would peacefully look at such decision of Kurds south of the Taurus Mountains. Erdogan, or whoever be the Turkish leader would immediately launch a war of the huge proportions to keep the status quo of the current Turkish southern borders. This war would for sure engulf entire Syria and could probably drag in other countries too.
So naming the Kurdish federalization declaration as “silver lining” which would eventually motivate Kurds in Turkey to wish the status of Syrian Kurds and proactively work on it, is a warmongering yell with unforeseeable consequences, and it is for sure that Syria would be the first on the list of “collateral damages”. Syrian support of that concept in order to gain benefits of her “historical” northern borders is out of question because it would drag Syria and entire region in the bloody war with disastrous consequences.”
/syrian-turkish-border-security-check-point-taurus/#comment-223477
Careful readers, using all links above as well as my comments would clearly identify the U-turn of the author in his latest article where he claims the same I wrote 18 moths ago:
Ghassan Kadi, July 2017:
“Erdogan will never allow an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. Even if the events in Syria had taken a different turn a few years back and had Syria lost to the terrorists, and even if the Russian and Iranian help did not come and Syria had capitulated and was shredded to pieces, Erdogan still wouldn’t have allowed for an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. ”
What I also see in this text is that Ghassan indirectly accuses president Assad for missing the “golden Opportunity” to tie Kurds under the roof of Damascus, as author proposed .
Well, at the end of this article author should at least give credits to the reader who first wrote these words in his critics on authors previous articles.
Folks… (most) everyone has good points to make but puleeeze try a little harder to respectfully disagree without being dis-agreeable. Thank-you. Respectfully, Moderator
Did I read that there are 40 million Kurds spread through out the region?
A few of them accepting USD does not a collective mind make.
Bet there is a much larger percentage that is not allied with USA and instead quite certain they don’t want to get bombed anymore.
And Turkey invading Saudi barbaria without the suppprt of London? Ha. As if.
This article is unreal…
First, Erdogan’s purges before and especially after the putsh have weakened enormously the turkish army; to take Al Bab, it took them _months_ , and even there he had to bribe the ISIS to avoid an embarassing stalemate
Second: The Russians would never allow Turkey to go for Damascus,
Third: The logistic to maintain turkish troops 1,000 miles from their bases, near Mecca, is enormous, so you think that the Russians/Americans would not bomb their convoys?
Isn’t a scenario where Turkey occupies the entire East of Syria all the way down to Mecca a bit too far fetched ?
I am confused why Mr. Kadi is entertaining this scenario…what is it based on, only Erdogan’s dream of a Neo-Ottoman Empire?
And what will Erdogan do to the land between Syria and Mecca, go through Jordan or Iraq?
Sorry but this scenario is a bit too much….Israel and the US would never entertain a such a scenario where large Muslim country becomes bigget and possibly unites many Muslims across the Middle-East.
Lol, lets stick to the Turkish Buffer zone scenario for now.
On topic by Shaykh Imran Hosein:
Saudi Arabia Qatar & The Eighty Flags By Sheikh Imran Hosein
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUPLAYER_SheikhImranHosein&v=twX80pjLi58