To its great credit, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz has expressed many doubts about the rationale behind the Israeli assault on Gaza from the very first day of the operation. Today Haaretz published two analytical reports which are very interesting. The first one, entitled Operation Cast Lead in Gaza is entering its problematic phase ,and the second one, entitled Hamas is hoping for an IDF ground operation, are both strongly implying that a ground operation could result in a disaster for Israel and that Hamas would come out greatly strengthened from such an attack. Then there is a recent article in Press TV entitled Stop Gaza attacks for new ceasefire in which a “top Hamas official rules out any talk of a new ceasefire with Israel unless all missile strikes on Gaza stop and border crossings open”. The analysts for Haaretz – Amos Harel, Avi Issacharoff and Aluf Benn – are absolutely correct. The thing that worries me is that they are also suggesting that Hamas is at least thinking about the terms under which it might accept to return to the negotiating table. See, I am not worried about Hamas being too intransigent in a search for a ceasefire, I am worried about Hamas being willing to consider *any* ceasefire before truly inflicting a humiliating defeat on Israel.
Considering all its past mistakes and miscalculations, it is absolutely essential, vital really, for Hamas to clearly and unequivocally prevail against Israel in the current war. If Israel is allowed to walk away from “Operation Cast Lead” (who cooks up these stupid names anyway?!) with its head held high there is a great risk that this kind of criminal assault will be repeated in the future. Hezbollah, for example, only agreed to a ceasefire after Israel and clearly exhausted *all* of its military options without even so much as a trace of an achieved objective. Hamas now needs hunker down, force Israel into a ground offensive and prevail. Even though the cost in terms of human lives and suffering will be huge, that is the only way to prevent Israel from repeating this over and over again each time its hapless politicians need to win an election and show that they are “tough”.
In the past, Hamas got itself drawn into a utterly counterproductive “ceasefire” with Israel and into lengthy and equally counterproductive negotiations with Israel via Egypt. This strategy of negotiations resulted in a blockade of Gaza which was gradually turning into a genocide. Hamas needs to learn from these mistakes and stop all negotiations with Israel and its puppets in the Middle-East.
What Israel did in Hamas is criminal by any standards. Israel violated the basic norms of civilized behavior, it committed grievous human rights violations and the current “Operation Cast Lead” is a textbook example of war crimes. The Palestinian people are now at a crucial moment in their history. They can either settle for some lame ceasefire deal with Israel, or they can make the Zionist Jews realize once and for all that the time when they could massacre Palestinians with impunity is truly over.
Hamas now has a real chance to become the “Palestinian Hezbollah”, but for that Hamas needs to stay away from any negotiations or ceasefire before Israel is severely defeated. Any premature ceasefire will only serve to multiply and prolong the suffering of the Palestinian people.
The Saker
Hi Saker,
I think you’re overestimating Hamas’ military capability here. What if Israel completely decimates Hamas as it did to the PLO in the early 2000’s? The top political leadership may be completely exterminated, and although it can be eventually replenished, Israel’s violent policies will be positively reinforced.
Hassan Nasrallah was calling for Israel to withdraw and a ceasefire to be put in effect the minute the war started, and applied progressively more pressure until Olmert finally cracked. Hamas does not have this capacity, it should take a ceasefire that includes even a temporary opening of Rafah the minute it is offered. It’s just not ready for this war yet, and overestimating it’s strength now could set it’s struggle back a generation.
Hamas’ strategy should be to go all out in the opening stage of the War not worrying about holding armaments in reserve for future use. That, combined with international pressure, may be enough to shock Israel into another truce. I don’t think this war can last past it’s third week.
Masoud
Saker, I have to agree with Anonymous above.
For your strategy to work, Hamas has to be able to exact a price with its, missiles, and it simply doesn’t have this capability. They are surrounded by the sparsely populated Negev and they don’t have enough long range missiles to hit Ashdod for long.
By contrast, Hizbollah could keep hitting Haifa till the cows came home and always on the back of Israel’s mind was the fear they might hit Tel Aviv.
Also, Gaza has no strategic depth and no defensible hills. And like you said in your previous posts, the Israelis aren’t likely to enter Gaza City.
Granted, Hamas shouldn’t appear to eager for a ceasefire. But if they can get a halfway decent one, I’m not sure it would be wise to refuse.
I don’t really see the Israelis go into Gaza. They can simply continue air strikes for a little while, then cease fire and declare that they have won and Hamas has been heavily damaged. Sort of “Mission accomplished”
They will get all the glory back home, announcing another thousand of Palestinians dead.
Europe will sigh with relieve.
Obama will keep talking about good perspective for peace process.
Israel will simply resume strikes once in a while to play safe.
Just like the Saker said: “crowd control with F-16s”
Wouldn’t it be much wiser for Hamas to wait for Mr Mubarak’s death? Arming themselves secretly during the lull in hostilities? Even at the cost of civilian sufferings?
Is not the Egypt the key issue for the plight of Gaza? Is there not one iota probability that taking the biggest brick from the US-Arab’s Wall of Evil will make the wall collapsed?
Regards
This war may lead to Mubarak’s political death.
On the other hand – whoever will come to power in Egypt may very well get sold as well.
@everybody: guys, you all make very valid points and when Masoud writes “I think you’re overestimating Hamas’ military capability here” he may well be right and I am in no way insisting that “Hamas has graduated to the Hezbollah league”. All I am saying is that Hamas has the *real opportunity* to “graduate to the Hezbollah league” if it does play its cards right.
As I wrote in the other discussion, I have been disappointed by Hamas over and over again and this might well be another one of those times, but my hope is that Hamas also learned from its past mistakes.
Simply put: if the Palestinian people want to survive they will have to learn from their past mistakes. They have no other option left.
Lastly, I am ever hopeful for the amazing Israeli capability to f**k up and do something amazingly dumb.
I agree with P202 the key is Egypt. If the corrupt and spineless Mubarak regime wasn’t collaborating with the Israelis they would have a much harder time maintaining this criminal assault on the Gaza.
I still harbour the fond hope that Obama may be a significant improvement on Bush – not that he isn’t a Zionist; he is, but he may have the brains to realise this kind of barbaric behaviour will be counter productive for Israel in the long run.
@Robert: «I still harbour the fond hope that Obama may be a significant improvement on Bush – not that he isn’t a Zionist; he is, but he may have the brains to realise this kind of barbaric behaviour will be counter productive for Israel in the long run»
How long is the long run? Israel’s been doing pretty well so far. They’ve bought some nations, intimidated or destroyed others. Iran is next on the agenda for sure.
And then – it will be just crowd control. Occasional air strikes around.
And I really doubt that Obama will have his say on the issue.
Only 1000 protesters in Cairo???!!!??? Pathetic.
That’s where the real tragedy is. If Mubarak doesn’t feel threatened, he’ll keep up his collusion forever. If he feels his grip on power is even at the slightest risk, he’ll open Rafah tomorrow. Egyptians have to take risks for their own freedom as well as for Palestine. That means hundred thousand protesters for several days. But there realy is no organized opposition there.
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1051234.html
this is an example of the risk…
clearly hamas has the discipline to abide by any ceasefire — as they have done repeatably in the past.
this news from israel is a sign that israel is not ready for a ground invasion and is trying to get a few more days for preparation.
it shows that israel started this criminal war with the dumb idea that bombing would destroy hamas quickly.
the lessons of 2006 have not been learned.
HAve to agree with those posters who said that, for a number of reasons, the situation in Gaza is just not the same as the situation in Lebanon. Of course, the Israeli brutality – and the international response (sic) – are sickeningly familiar, but there the similarities end, for reasons outlined by others.
The thing is, the only ceasefire the Israelis will accept is one which involves total and complete capitulation by Hamas – including ceding Gaza to Fatah. Then again, so long as even one ‘rocket’ is fired at Israel, the war will be seen to have been a failure by the Israeli public (who, to paraphrase the war nerd, are about as intelligent as most publics, which is to say not very).
@everybody:
I fully agree with the posters who said that the really issue here, the center of gravity so to speak, is Egypt. And let’s not be cute about it – what we are talking about is not pressuring Mubarak into some other policy, what we are talking about here is ejecting Mubarak and his coterie from power and replacing them by some kind of Islamist government.
As I wrote many times on Tony’s blog before giving up on it, Hamas was fundamentally mistaken in negotiating with Mubarak. What Hamas should have done is storming the Egyptian side of the border and keeping it open at all and any cost. If several thousands armed Hamas soldiers surrounded by several hundred of thousands of civilians had done that Mubarak would have lost control of the situation. But, as we all know, after Hamas brilliantly brought down the wall it stopped there and did exactly nothing to prevent the Egyptians form closing it again.
Every time Hamas attempted to negotiate with Egypt the negotiations ended up in a disaster of Hamas. Until Hamas understands that Mubarak, Abbas and the rest of them are nothing but Shin Bet franchises they will not succeed.
Mubarak and Abbas need to be overthrown, there are no two ways about it. What Hamas did in Gaza was correct. They need to do whatever it takes to repeat that in the West Bank and Egypt.
Even Stratfor regards Egypt as the biggest potential threat to Israel if it did flip over.
Venezuela used to be an utterly compliant client state of the Empire. The best hope would be for left Islamists to subvert the Egyptian army as the Bolivarians did in Venezuela.
This disgusting editorial by the NYT reveals why Hamas should reject a ceasefire:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/opinion/30tue1.html?_r=1
“Mubarak and Abbas need to be overthrown, there are no two ways about it.”
I’m, all for that but in the meantime, I’ll take what I can get. If Mubarak could be embarrassed into opening Rafah, that would be a significant accomplishment.
The REAL heart of the matter, however, is Saudi Arabia. If there ever was a government that needed to fall, its that one, and that would leave the west soiling their pants much more than the fall of Mubarak. Its hard to believe that guy was once a pretty good air force officer. Now just a bought and paid for pig.
@Irish Eyes: “The thing is, the only ceasefire the Israelis will accept is one which involves total and complete capitulation by Hamas – including ceding Gaza to Fatah”
I don’t know. I would think that Israel will accept any ceasefire wich would guarantee it from Hamas shelling even for a while.
Total and complete capitulation by Hamas would require not just go into Gaza for the IDF and have some street by street fighting which they probably can manage.
Total and complete capitulation by Hamas will require total terror from the IDF. Which would include just two options for the Palestinians – collaborate or die. And not just for the Hamas members but for their families, neighbours classmates, whoever knew or just meet the Hamas members, or would be capable of picking up a gun.
Just like in Chechnya – the Russians gave the tho options for the Chechens. And you know what has happened there.
It will not be just get in kill the Hamas members and get out for the Israelis. It will be full occupation of Gaza strip. And it will last a bit longer then the Israelis would like it to last.
Steve Walt’s assessment of Israel’s responses;
Steve Walt on the reports of a truce
@AA: Walt’s assessment is basically sound. The one sentence which made me smile was “I do wonder what Obama is thinking as he watches this one”. I know the answer to this one!
Obama is thinking: what does AIPAC want me to do today?
:-)
“Total and complete capitulation by Hamas will require total terror from the IDF.”
As opposed to what is happening now???
“Which would include just two options for the Palestinians – collaborate or die.”
As opposed to what have always been the options Zionism has made available to Palestinians?
“I would think that Israel will accept any ceasefire wich would guarantee it from Hamas shelling even for a while. “
But if that is all Israel wanted, they could have had it. In fact they did have it until they violated the truce some time back. Seems to me that this is all about nasty politicians looking to show the dumb Israeli electorate just how ‘tough’ they are – and is yet more evidence that the Israeli military elite is still stupid enough to think they can ‘crush’ the resistance by air attacks alone. But I do agree with you that Israel is of course extremely reluctant to engage in any ground offensive.Which leaves the fools in the same bind they were in in August 2006 – either risk your precious ‘soldiers’ in some real fighting, or accept what was on offer all along. Morons.
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Irish Eyes: «Israeli military elite is still stupid enough to think they can ‘crush’ the resistance by air attacks alone»
I don’t think that the Israeli military elite is more dumb than military elite in other countries. The Israeli’s problem is – being a regional superpower, practically unchallenged it’s military became too insolent to bother with strategy planning, just like the US or the Russians back in early 90s.
Superpowers tend to think that they can just get into whatever they want to get and that alone would solve any problem. Because they’re big. Superbig.
Then they get their WWII, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Grozny, Lebanon, Gaza.
Some Superpowers learn from their mistakes, some – never do.
I don’t know if the Israelis have learned something from 2006, we’re yet to see that.
“I don’t think that the Israeli military elite is more dumb than military elite in other countries.”
No, but they’re not any more intelligent either. It always amazes me how people overestimate the Israeli military and ‘intelligence’ organisations, believing that, when they fail (as they very often do) it’s really only a hidden victory in disguise, and that they always have a trick up their sleeves. When in reality, as you say, they’re one-trick ponies whose hubris and arrogance will surely be their downfall.
@everybody: as far as I know the Israelis are, actually, pretty *bad* soldiers. Their technical and tactical training is adequate, but they lack courage and determination. I know people who took Israeli prisoners and they told me that the IDF soldiers were shaking from head to toe in terror. I also know some guys who trained Syrians who told me that as soon as the Syrians got modern Russian antiair systems the Israeli pilots refused to fly missions and some had to be threatened to take off.
Historically, it is a fact that good and bad armies are mostly alike when things go their way, when they are winning. What differentiates a good and a bad military is the ability to take a hard beating and to counter-attack and come back and win. In that sense the Israeli record is less than stellar. Stuff like the Entebe operation really says nothing.
While this might not have been true in the past, the modern Israelis are, by many accounts, sissies who are just not willing to die to accomplish their missions. That kind of hyper-pampered solider is really not hard to freak out and their units collapse really fast when the shit hits the fan.
Look at how the Israelis fought at Bint Jbeil. They went in and retreated, Went in and retreated, Went in and retreated. They could not take the place in 33 days even though they practically flattened it. A Russian Airborne regiment would have gone in, taken a 10-20% losses and taken the place in 24 hours tops. So would have a Chechen force. Or even Brits. But the Israelis?!
The so-called “elite” Golani *Brigade* could not do that. How lame can you get?!
I think that the Israelis are amazingly arrogant. They are racists and they believe their own propaganda about their alleged “superiority”. They are pampered thugs who can beat up Palestinian women at a checkpoint or shoot into a crowd of Palestinian kids from their air-conditioned Merkavas, but that hardly makes them soldiers. That is also why about 1000 Hezbollah operators could beat the crap out of them in 2006, that is why they did not even reach the Litani. That is why if Hamas really means business it could beat them, but for that Hamas needs to stop complaining about the Israeli war crimes, Hamas needs to stop even *thinking* about negotiations and start to get the mindset of the Russians in Leningrad who sustained 900 days (two and a half years) of the Nazi blockade (which, in comparison, makes Gaza look like a luxury resport) and then beat the Nazis back.
The Israelis are eminently beatable. The question in my mind is only whether Hamas has the determination to do so. I hope it does, but I don’t know.
I agree with your post. As many have said, one of the greatest weaknesses of the Israeli army is its unwillingness to take casualties. Of course, all armies try to minimise losses, but when the one overriding motive of an army is to avoid military losses at all costs, then that is obviously a huge disadvantage. I’ve heard Israelis try to spin this as the usual ‘we love life, while the Arabs love death’ nonsense, but really what it means is that the Israelis have become so pampared by decades of overwhelming military superiority that they have become, quite frankly, sissies. In fact, you could even say they are less of an ‘army’ in the true sense of the word than a colonial police force with some pretty flashy equipment.Combine this with the fact that ever more Israelies are refusing to serve in the IDF – not out of moral objections, but sheer indifference – and you can see how, as you say, in a context where their advanced weaponry becomes irrelevant, the Israelis are indeed ’eminently beatable’. But will Hamas rise to the challenge, as Hizballah did? That remains to be seen.
Saker, in light of your last post re:Israeli willingness to take casualties, how would you rate the U.S.?
Do you think a good U.S. infantry unit could sustain 10-20% casualties in, say, a 48 hour period and continue fighting? How about something like the 82nd airborne or U.S. Marines?
@lysander: tough question, really. The US performance in Iraq and Afghanistan has been less then impressive, to say the least. Still, there is a warrior ethos in the USA which I would not discount. Americans, unlike Israelis, are tough people and my guess is that in a regular war (and not a clearly botched war like Iraq or Afghanistan) Americans would fight well. So my guess is that yes, they could take that kind of losses and come back.
I studied with quite of few US officers and they impressed me positively. A good friend of mine was 101st and 82nd and my impression was that these were tough guys for sure.
It’s the US special ops which I am decidedly not impressed by…
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