By Zamir Awan for the Saker Blog
The last few decades have witnessed several wars, like the Iraq war, Libya war, Yemen war, Syria war, the Afghan war, etc. But all of such wars were designed by the US and executed along with NATO/ US allies. The US-style of wars, was first building a narrative, using media as propaganda, and then, involving the UN and international community, or convincing the rest of the world for its war acts. As a result, the US achieved its objectives without getting blamed for wars, aggressions, invasions, etc. Although millions were killed, millions were injured, many serious with lifetime disabilities, millions of houses were destroyed making millions of people homeless, forcing millions of people to live in refugee camps or take asylum in other countries and spend the rest of their lives in misery. Infrastructure was damaged, the economy was destroyed, social systems were damaged totally, changed regime installed puppets and dictated them to serve American interests, etc.
All wars are equally bad and harmful to humankind. Either the victims are Muslims, Christians, Jews, or any other religion. Whether, the victims are black, yellow, or white, are equally precious. Irrespective of race, religion, ethnicity, nationality, or social status, all lives deserve equal treatment and respect. The UN charter guarantees the protection of all humankind equally.
But Ukraine war is very special and bears different consequences:-
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only created a worldwide political, diplomatic, economic, food, and energy crisis but has also exposed the double standards of the world powers towards the principles of international politics and global governance.
- It is expected the conflict to be a long-drawn-out affair. This is reinforced by the fact that despite the inclination of the Russian leadership or military to end the war at an early stage, on the ground trends in the shape of military armament and around 50,000 non-state actors in Ukraine offer a very alarming specter.
- The war is not a choice but perhaps a strategic compulsion that Moscow felt for several reasons like challenges ranging from the global world order to the expansion of NATO and also concerns regarding the political leadership of Ukraine and its policies.
- It is an ideational conflict that shows the level of violence and degree of pain and cost that could be inflicted on Russia by the US-led western alliance. The war seems to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain in an enduring fashion across several domains beyond the kinetic tactical or operational battlefield of Ukraine will make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives.
- China views this conflict with a lot of concern because it offers more challenges than opportunities. A weakened Russia is not in the Chinese interest. Moreover, the revival and rearmament of NATO also indirectly do not augur well for Beijing in terms of future prospects. Another aspect is that although China wants to sustain its global economic growth but not at the cost of disturbing its trade relations with the west.
- It is highlighted the buildup of the Quad, the Indo-Pacific strategy, and the recent rise of QUAD 2.0. If all these are added up most of these things are aimed at containing China and disrupting its global rise. This conflict has perhaps reminded Washington that they cannot afford to only concentrate the major share of their hard power only on Asia-Pacific and need to maintain their security commitment towards the west and Europe as well.
- In the regional context, India was seen in flux because its military forces are heavily dependent on Russia for meeting its technological and operational needs but it is facing a very difficult challenge due to its growing diplomatic and economic ties with the US. As such Delhi will find it rather difficult to balance these contrasting challenges.
- The Muslim world was urged to introspect because they have been accused of over 20 years of terrorism but this reality dawning in eastern Europe allows them to look at how other civilizations and value systems call upon non-state actors and militant organizations when they are challenged and how they are presented in the Western-dominated media.
- In terms of identity, it poses a simultaneous challenge in terms of race, religion, and nationalism. The western alliance sees this as the frustration of the Russian orthodox Christianity facing the challenge of the western world order which is characterized by the Protestants and Catholics.
- The societal aspect should be seen in the context of globalization and the perpetual process of the interconnectedness of the different civilizations, societies, peoples, cultures, and economies. This is perhaps the biggest challenge globalization has received in terms of a counter-globalization movement.
- The economic aspect is not just playing out in the sanctions regime but also the trade and currency wars, and the grave concern that Beijing has because to sustain its economic expansion and global influence it is heavily dependent on Western Europe and America for maintaining its export market which is worth over $600 billion. The increasing energy prices pose a huge challenge for the developing world and the governments, especially immediately after the COVID crisis.
- In the political domain, it is the greatest test of the current world order and a complex contest between the ideational powers, revivalist powers, and states that want to be identified based on nationalism. It is an ideational challenge to the status quo world order by a frustrated and provoked Russia which wants to be respected for its economic, political and strategic revival.
- In terms of the security domain, the conflict has led to the revival and rearmament of NATO, which does not augur well for China and Russia. It also has reduced Russian energy leverage and soft power on Western Europe and revived sub-conventional warfare as a means of great power contest in the east European theater.
- Russia is angered by the eastward expansion of NATO and has challenged the Western-led world order. He also said that Western sanctions could affect Pakistan’s ability to benefit from improving ties with Moscow, in terms of meeting its energy needs.
- Ukraine conflict has created a worldwide economic, energy, and food crisis that has affected all the countries including Pakistan.
- The conflict represents a Russian challenge to the US exceptionalism which the Western world is contesting by supporting the Ukraine government through militants which presents the world an opportunity to recover from its excessive focus on the Muslim world.
- The Western powers cannot have one set of rules for themselves and another for other countries in terms of security and prosperity and Russia is no longer willing to access this contradictory Western approach.
- Ukraine War is an ideational conflict for the US which should not merely be seen in a geopolitical context while Russia, through this military operation, wants to show the world that it is back on the world stage.
- This conflict offers more challenges than opportunities for Beijing and although the Western powers view China as standing on the Russian side a weakened Russia is not in Chinese interests.
- India faced a complex dilemma of maintaining its very close defense cooperation with Russia and simultaneously building deep and long-term strategic and diplomatic ties with the United States.
- Muslim societies should start thinking of alternative arrangements, such as a monetary union and common market, to address their concerns during international crises.
- The world banking system and global energy supply chain have badly suffered due to this conflict. He said that more than one trillion dollars have been stuck in the global banking system due to the war.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization). (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).
A bit off the rails I’d say.
Agreed, replace Russia-Ukraine Conflict with Casino Capitalism, WEF and Covid19 and there you have your answers.
Yes. While the Saker’s away, the mice will play…
I’ve seen a lot of comments in my years at the Saker blog, but this one is up there – no utility and meaningless.
“no utility and meaningless.”
As Mr. Schroedinger observed.
Phenonmena do not need to be perceived to exist.
Opprtunities likely lie through the portal of what-some-deem-to-be-plausible-beliefness, and hence has utility for some with facility including agency.
Yes, many are simple observatios from a Mars observer. For inst , to say that for China there are more challenges than opportunities superficial and unverifiable, requires reaction and facts to be validated.
Because Beijing has successfully faced challenges over 50 years now and their system has coped with them in unexpected ways.
Sometimes the name says a lot.. Garbos offload rubbish. 😀
Not only a bit. I felt like I was reading one of those soups that the UN has the secret to cover up the crimes of the West.
This is obvious propaganda that is intended to undermine the Russian war effort.
Maybe this was not really the time, in the middle of a war, for Saker to take a religious holiday.
Perhaps someone should get him on the mobile phone and tell him what is going on on his website.
Not at all a “grave miscalculation” by Russia.
I knew there was something wrong as soon as I saw: “the US achieved its objectives..”
Which US war was that? On the contrary, every US war since at least Vietnam has demonstrated the same fact, that the US can sow chaos, kill and destroy, but it utterly incapable of attaining any of its own proclaimed “affirmative” goals.
Agreed!
Article is way off base. OTOH, the US has primary and secondary objectives. It usually fails the former and achieves the latter: sow chaos, kill and destroy.
And this is a good outcome for the US.
What’s happening at the Azovstal plant? Yesterday Kadyrov said it would be completely taken over today now Putin says troops should stop the assault to minimise losses. Supposedly 2000 stuck down there which I don’t believe. No water electricity etc etc. And now the soldiers are to withdraw? Sounds to me the left foot doesn’t know what the right foot is doing.
Can anyone explain what’s going on there at Azovstal.?
Putin has ordered Shoigu to essentially lay siege on the plant. A fly is not allowed to enter or leave the Azvostal plant. They are going to starve them out.
You should take Kadirov’s announcements with a grain of salt. He is not left, nor the right foot, he is the “foot-soldier of Putin” in his own words. Direct attack will take too many lives, there are probably civilian hostages and certainly many forcefully mobilized in the regullar Ukrainian army who do not want to fight, but are killed the very moment they try to escape.
The DNR forces are moving to join the battle for Donbas, not withdrawing.
OK thanks thst makes complete sense.
Factor in too, there are likely many NATO “advisors”, high-level and otherwise, at risk in such an attack!
They would most likely be killed by the Uks and their deaths blamed on Russia’s attacking forces. Instead, let the “allies” eat their own under rather dire circumstances.
The NATO “cooks, designers, drivers, medics, musicians” etc are a significant asset if taken alive. Then they can be paraded in front of UN or exchanged for something.
Besides, there is no need to make the Azovs martirs, which seems to be the goal of Kiev or whoever makes decisions. Let them sit there and keep sending messages for help, that is not coming. It sounds much better: ” They abandoned us” than shooting people.
Fully agree.
Storming a bunker complex without gas or flooding would cost many lifes and creates matyrs. Doesnt matter how starved out Azov might be.
Russia entered so many battles this war were the defenders had the clear advantage. It’s time to stop this and to care more about the lifes of russian people and soldiers than about limiting enemy causalities.
Sealing off the bunker is the best option.
Don’t let them die as heros, let them die as cowards hiding and starving.
If they want to die fighting, they can come out and try.
Faced with the choice to lose many of your now battle hardened, best urban fighters in a war that will require taking more cities over fighting a force which will run out of food anyway or taking the ground level, welding over all entrances and waiting, Putin sees it better to wait.
I think they should just drown them. Seal up all entrances, bring in the fire engines, and run the pumps down ventilation shafts until you are standing in a puddle, then reverse the pumps and go see what’s down there. Very few Russian soldiers have to die in that scenario and they can rest while the pumps run for a couple days.
Faced with the choice to lose many of your now battle hardened, best urban fighters in a war that will require taking more cities over fighting a force which will run out of food anyway or taking the ground level, welding over all entrances and waiting, Putin sees it better to wait.
Hmmm !!!! . While Putin waits the US in the meantime trains Ukrainian force to use heavy artillery and some powerful weapons with a lot of weapon supplies into Ukranine.
Putin means waiting before Azovstal. The US is not arming Azovstal.
None of those supplies are going to Mariupol, nor are any of those trained artillery men. They are all going to Donbass. Much of Donbass is open country and doesn’t require troops trained for urban fighting until the countryside is cleared and cities like Kramatorsk are complete surrounded. Based on the pace of operations in Donbass I think it is safe to say at that point the people in AzovStal will be dead of starvation or have surrendered.
In addition to that, once AzovStal is sealed top notch urban fighters are no longer required there, lesser troops can be used to watch the entrances to AzovStal and free up the better infantry. Is the siege a manpower sink? Yes. It it a huge deal? No, not compared to the size of the whole operation. Russia declared Mariupol in their control today, this means most likely they feel secure moving in rear guard troops to handle the city and moving shock troops out of the city and to the front. Keeping AzovStal secured will just be another part of that rear guard action
The American supply of weapons is also not a deciding factor. Russia controls the airspace over Ukraine. Old, towed howitzers will be deployed in place and destroyed by airstrikes. All heavy equipment needs to cross unprotected from air attack across the majority of Ukraine to get to the front anyway, which guarantees it’s destruction. The United States and it’s vassals continue to provide weapons to Ukraine for two reasons: the political class is freaking out because the global order is being overturned in Ukraine, and American arms companies do not care if the weapons get blown up because they get the contracts to replace them.
Russia will win this war eventually, and to those who think the aftermath will be “a new Afghanistan”, that will certainly not happen. Afghanistan is Afghanistan for every country that tries to occupy it because it has it’s own, highly local culture, and because it’s terrain is ideal for guerilla warfare.
Ukraine has neither of those things. Half of Ukrainians speak Russian, and for those who have taken the time to at least skin through Machiavelli’s “The Prince” it is already known that the best way to occupy a new place is to establish a colony of your own people in that place and to make alliances and empower local players who were previously oppressed under the previous regime. That work is already done in Ukraine with no effort, the LDNR already exists, and the Russian speakers were already oppressed under the CIA regime. The geography, of Ukraine is poor for guerilla warfare as well. Ukraine is the part of the world which for millenia was dominated by horseback riding warriors due to it’s flat geography. The Polish Lithuanian commonwealth continued to use heavy cavalry in the area while fighting the Turks into the gunpowder age when in Western Europe heavy usage of pikes made heavy cavalry obsolete despite the societal momentum of the knightly class being a class of people trained from childhood to be heavy cavalry. Russian drones and satellite surveillance will make guerilla war in Ukraine a losing battle because there is nowhere to hide on flat featureless steppes.
If you are a Rooski, don’t worry about it. If you work for Ukraine or are a payed western troll, you should start thinking about what other jobs you might be good at doing when the inevitable collapse of the west comes along.
Guy, I thought this article was kind of Removed. Mod., but I posted it as a thread on my Twitter. But I will also post your comment, which is much better than the original text! Congratulations.
The Russians are doing a bang-up job of knocking out weapons sent by the West. The other day Slovakia sent a batch of Soviet era unmodified S-300s and they spent less than a week in the warehouse before they were annihilated by Russian missiles. Yesterday, acc to avia.pro, Russia wiped out still more weapons at another warehouse. In fact they didn’t use missiles this time. They used aviation, indicating that they have pretty much cleared out the air defenses.
President Putin is very classy. It is Easter in the Orthodox Church, and Putin has given the ‘Azov’ lot ‘three days in the tomb’ to think about whether they want to ‘resurrect’, to ‘rise again on the third day’ sort of thing. It is really up to them.
“The war is not a choice but perhaps a strategic compulsion that Moscow felt for several reasons like challenges ranging from the global world order to the expansion of NATO and also concerns regarding the political leadership of Ukraine and its policies.”
appers to contradict –
“It is an ideational conflict that shows the level of violence and degree of pain and cost that could be inflicted on Russia by the US-led western alliance. The war seems to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain in an enduring fashion across several domains beyond the kinetic tactical or operational battlefield of Ukraine will make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives.”
The author should make up his mind as to whether Russia had ‘not a choice’ and made a ‘grave miscalculation’.
It cannot be both.
Of course it can be both. Just think a little about the matter.
@amarynth. No it can’t be both. If the war is ‘not a choice’ there can no calculation or ‘miscalculation’. You do what you have to do and suffer the consequences or achieve the benefits. Like jumping out of a burning building or leaving a sinking ship.
It’s actually a little bit of thinking that is needed but I truly don’t want to debate for the sake of debate.
Russia could have made different decisions. We all know that the real conflict is Russia vs US/NATO. Now just think of all the options open to Russia. In my view, they took the least destructive option in a step of containment of military kinetic action. Russia said they will do military/technical solution. In the Ukraine, things will not stay there. Russia will take the whole of NATO back to its agreed borders. There is a plan there that is not open for you or I to understand.
But I believe that Russia had many options.
Did you read Lavrov’s response to the Indian news agency? read it again.. USNATO refused to come to the table.
Not only did I read it, I searched for it, I checked for the formal transcript, I made sure that the formal transcript got posted for us at the Saker Blog. I found the best video, and once it went up, I understood it as I had gone through it various times, in writing and on video and I caught it live.
But this kind of oppositional stuff is just funny. I’m talking about Russia’s options – the fact that US-NATO ignored the proposals for Russian security guarantees, is not the beginning of this. This started a very long time ago, and for me, I usually start with Putin’s Munich speech.
Now, I’m talking about *Russia’s options*. Have I made it clearer? Maybe I can remind you of one of Mr.Putin’s speeches, where he said Russia would attack the platforms where US-NATO instructions come from.
Russia had and has options, even today.
It seems like Stalin, Putin has the same option were the West was pointing a Gun at either head. Putin, having made the move in defense of Russia Before they attacked changed the dynamics of what the Party had planned. Putin, knew before all what they were planning and he sat like a Cat waiting to spring Their Own trap.
Putin, unexpected moving first caused them to re-calibrate as they cannot yet believe Russia has a Power to corner them as they are. They may have been entertaining dangerous thoughts but Putin has given them some “food for thought’ with testing the new Sarmat.
“USNATO refused to come to the table.”
Perhaps you interpret that as a disadvantage ?
Perhaps you also believe that you “know” the purposes of the Russian Federation and how these purposes will be facilitated ?
“Belief” is not fact!
The Fact is US/ NATO actively took steps to severely reduce the Russian options; not unlike what Franklin D Roosevelt did to the Japanese, leading up to the Pearl Harbor attack!!
It’s an old Western trick : Maneuver your enemy into the corner of being forced to make the first blow, so you can counter-attack with a “clear conscience” and unblinking support from your population, as you tell the folks back home you need a declaration of war, because of that “surprise attack by those treacherous_______________(fill in the blank!) See: Ft. Sumpter, The Maine, the Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, WMDs….the list of false flags goes on and on…..
If there are options, then you have a choice.
“Forced to make a decision” would be a possible wording for that.
And those other options would have ranged from Minsk III to giving up the Donbass. Both very bad.
As long as we dont find an option that would have worked better, saying that it was a “miscalculation” does not work.
I will also post your answer, because the question is important. The war didn’t start in February, it really started in Munich.
Exactly, but a lot of people don’t think, they react. And when they react, they process information automatically and quickly through their personal bias filter.
Tbh, I am guilty of that too from time to time. It’s very hard to think “straight”, especially in times like these.
There are many aspects to this miscalculation, but it is quite obvious that there was faulty intelligence and/or a healthy dose of underestimating the enemy coupled with the strategic mistake of “striking first” (exactly the same mistake Milosevic did with Croatia in 1991, scenario is eerily similar).
Yes, yes I know – the UAF did start shelling first (and broke the ceasefire since 2014 too many times to count just as Croats started the war in Yugoslavia) but it was was never reported that way by western MSM (if they reported anything at all from the area, very little since 2014).
Now people will say, “exactly, and that’s why Russia HAD to strike!”
Wrong again.
If you know that western MSM doesn’t touch the subject of Donbass for years with a 10 foot pole, and you know that the OSCE is not doing anything useful, why would you think that anyone (apart from a few informed persons) would side with Russia when the entire issue is a black hole for them?
Herein lies the core of the problem – the total and utter failure of Russian information warfare. To be fair, they are up against a much larger, more well financed and experienced enemy when it comes to manipulating public opinion. It’s David vs. Goliath.
Nevertheless, without controlling the narrative (or at least having a narrative with a rivaling reach) you will always look like the aggressor.
Both Milosevic and Putin could have gotten away with a retaliatory strike/operation if they would have been ready to “sacrifice” civilians in Slavonia/Donbass. This means, not letting them arm themselves to begin with (at the most give light weapons to maintain maximum deniability) let the nazis attack, let them commit atrocities, let people flee, let independent journos (there still are a few) document the chaos/killing, let it all out…
There will be a point where those lies cannot be covered up efficiently, even by the strongest propaganda apparatus the world has ever seen. Just like when the massive lies about Iraq 2003 started coming out, no matter how hard they tried, public opinion swayed against the official narrative.
Sure, it is extremely cynical. But I am absolutely convinced it would work.
Once you reach that point its gloves off and hit them with everything you can and without any mercy at all.
This should have been done way back in 2014 and not 8 years later…
All these talks about how Russia failed in the information warfare is meaningless. Countries subjugated to the US interests would have sanctioned Russia no matter what. Sanctions have been piling on since 2014 with the regularity of a metronome under the most specious pretexts. The only difference it makes is for the political interests of the western elite (public support in regard of election cycles), and the consequences are practically irrelevant to Russia. Besides Russia was in absolutely no position to win any kind of information warfare when almost the globality of the social medias are american. No amount of effort would have achieved anything in western nations where censorship of the russian side of the narrative is constant. This is like saying “if this person in a wheelchair could run on their two legs, they could win a gold medal in the regular olympic games”. Absolutely pointless speculation when the game is rigged.
This is telling of our time where social medias dominate everything in the West. Westerners don’t realize the Global South nations aren’t interested in virtue signaling, only the economic aspects are important to them. That Russia appearing as heroic or villainous would seem like a relevant matter to so many people shows how complacent western cultural indoctrination had made the most fortunate portion of the world population.
Dat klinkt meer als de woorden die ik ben gewend op deze blog.
Helder en overtuigend.
“.Countries subjugated to the US interests would have sanctioned Russia no matter what.”
Of course they would, that is not the point. Its about winning “hearts and minds” in the collective West. Its much more risky to initiate a war like this if you know that the people financing the whole charade with their taxes are fully aware that such an adventure will mean an economic disaster. Now they beleive its “Putin prices” instead.
When it comes to the rest of the world (i.e. not North America, EU, Aus/Nz, South Korea & Japan) the job is already done – both regular people and political class are well aware of who’s who in this conflict and clearly either side with Russia or refuse to play along with the narrative being fed through western MSM.
That is hardly any consolation considering that the war is in full swing now and very little to be done about the failed information war other than trying to learn from these mistakes and not repeating them again.
To win hearts and minds in the West, it helps to be a winner first.
Croat started a war in former Yugoslavia?????With pistols and home made guns. You are delusional.
Please, if all you know about the origins of that war is what you heard on TV then no need to comment.
Anyone with any real knowledge knows that Croat “nationalists” (aka Ustashe/Nazis) never really went away after WW2, just like many other nazis and were at best indirectly supported by certain intelligence agencies during the Cold War, perpetrating terror attacks against diplomatic personell and civilian airliners among other things before realizing that their dream really was within reach after Tito’s death and the signing of a certain document in the US openly stipulating that Yugoslavia “needed to go”.
The Serbs under Milosevic certainly did little to ease tensions that were reaching fever level in 1990 and truly messed up by egging on civilians in Slavonia and Krajina to arm themselves thus provoking violent responses by Croat police (and very soon newly formed paramilitary units armed with ex-DDR weaponry supplied by newly unified and “friendly” Germany), but that still does not negate the fact that it was Croat police & paramilitaries that fired the first shots and committed the first atrocities, among them killing one of their own for trying to get villagers to cool down and de-escalate the situation.
His name was Josip Reihl-Kir, may he rest in peace.
Aren’t you contradicting yourself?
First you say that striking first was a mistake because of the propaganda issues, even if technically they didn’t do that.
Then you say that it doesnt matter anyway, because Western propaganda would just ignore who striked first and present you as bad.
So it wasnt a mistake, but did not matter?
I just can’t follow you here.
Could you give an example of a different option that would have worked better?
When you are talking about a different option eight years ago – then this is a different subject. They could have beaten down the Euromaidan coup and problem solved.
But was that the best option back then with the informations we had?
Sorry, I was typing all of this on the fly yesterday…
What I meant was this: For Russia “striking first” (which we both agree they did not do, nazis broke the ceasefire regularly since 2014 and started shelling first in February) without setting the stage properly (i.e. not only letting the Nazis attack first as they did, but let them run wild for a extended period of time, to the point where atrocities cannot be obfuscated by the various Bellingcat’s of the internet and MSM whores) was a big mistake, the same kind of mistake Milosevic did back in the 90’s.
This approach (letting the Nazis run wild for an extended period of time before intervening) should have been utilized in the ongoing SMO but would have been far more effective if used back in 2014 when western public opinion not only was much more neutral vis-a-vis Russia but the Ukrainian leadership and army was very weak and would have been crushed easily by a similar SMO to the ongoing one.
I am fully aware that this is a very cynical approach, if Putin and Milosevic were even 10% of the monsters they are portrayed as perhaps they would do something like that. But if you are going to “win” against someone who fights dirty, I am afraid you need to get your own hands dirty as well…
I’m sorry, you’re simplifying things. The world is complex and not simple. Consistent knowledge knows that a great success is also formed by trial and error. China is flexible and ready for all demands. Putin and the Russian military have the sensitivity to do WHAT MUST be done. Do you know what a miscalculation is? Miscalculation is what the US did by letting Russia partner with China. This was the death knell of the West, or likely world war 3.
The world is indeed complex and when faced with complex systems we humans and indeed scientists as well seek ways to identify underlying simplicity.
The lack of learning from past mistakes (or trial and error) is exactly the problem here. Russia apparently did not learn anything from the wars in Yugoslavia when it comes to information warfare and I specifically say Yugoslavia and not Iraq or other countries because there are so many similarities between the two conflicts.
They are basically running the same script now but on steroids.
I agree that letting Russia partner with China was a miscalculation on part of the West (among many others) but let’s not kid ourselves here, Russia can make mistakes too and made one when it comes to the information warfare strategy in my opinion.
Totally agree
“grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain in an enduring fashion across several domains beyond the kinetic tactical or operational battlefield of Ukraine will make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives.”
Very little in this essay one can agree with and the above quote is just pure wishful thinking.
What on Earth are the “several domains” ?
Economic, long term cut-off from the rest of the world in various domains .. sport for instance, culture, exports, imports – really too many to mention.
” . . .rest of the world ?”
But the countries imposing this “pain” comprise only a fraction of the planet and Russia can engage in all the activities you mention with the rest of the world.
Regarding sport for example, wasn’t Russia already excluded from the Olympics way before Ukraine? So what has the Ukraine operation got to do with sport? While Russia was vigorously promoting peace and Minsk2, the pro-nazi gangsters were kicking them out of sport and any and every international organisation they could think of.
Culture? i warrant there are plenty of enjoyable cultural events taking place in Moscow. Beijing. Tehran. etc etc
And let’s not get into what exactly western culture is these days. Transgender rap artists?
Regarding exports if the EU won’t buy Russian gas or oil or fertiliser etc etc, plenty of other countries will.
As for imports Russia has more than compensated for the loss of these and in fact it’s import substitution programme has massively benefitted the Russian economy.
Again the author must know that sanctions were imposed in 2014 amidst false allegations that Russia had invaded Ukraine. Does the author criticises the west for this atrocious behaviour? No, he does not.
Another point the author doesn’t seem to understand is that sanctions and rude, abusive behaviour were in evidence long long before the Ukraine liberation.
Ukraine has just been an excuse to let rip with full on demented Russophobia by US/EU who comprise about a seventh of planet Earth’s population though they certainly make more noise than the rest put together.
In short it doesn’t matter what Russia does, the western hatred is always present. So to be suggesting that Russia will suffer “domains of pain” because it is involved in Ukraine is simply not true.
Finally, the author hasn’t grasped that Russia with it’s many international connections and relationships is actually winning.
It seems to me anyway that it is the west which is and certainly will be suffering “domains of pain”.
Best wishes
I don’t know what kind of professor this person is or he has been misinterpreted . No, this is not the first war launched without UN consent or consultation. There were the unprovoked invasions of Yugoslavia and Iraq without UN resolution. One was based on false accusation of weapons of mass destruction and the other on false humanitarian grounds.Of course both NATO and Russian use article 51 and other United Nations clauses but this it like an accountant using the tax act to avoid paying taxes. NATO even broke its own defensive charter by becoming an aggressive alliance.
As aptly quoted by Greek composter Mikis Theodorakis during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. It is now the law of the jungle and barbarism.
I disagree with Prof Awan on this issue.
These trends were clearly in effect before the Russian actions. The conflict may have speeded up certain trends, but we had the breaking down of supply chains before the conflict, and not only energy.
For the rest, the explanation that this is a conflict of ideas, is of course correct. But it is more than that. It is civilizational.
This is an interesting article, and it highlights the real challenges Russia, China and the rest of the non-western world face because of the war on Ukraine. Hopefully, these challenges may bring some benefits to all by showing people the inner contradictions, immorality, and perverseness of the current political and economic situation in the western world. As the article said, this war may also expose the double-standard of current western governments.
My only complaint on this article is the implicit idea that the US and the EU has much strength left on them. For example:
“The war seems to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain […] will make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives”
Yes, the western world will try to cause the most pain possible in Russia and other non-aligned countries since this is an existential war for the west, too, but it’s worth remembering they have a great deal of internal, self-inflicting problems. The same pain they try to inflict on others will also affect them. As a matter of fact, I feel they are the ones to suffer the most.
The article rightly points to the challenges China faces by the consequences of this war. China righrly recognizes the NATO acts of aggression and expansion that led to this war, and it cannot have a weakened Russia. On the other hand, it also recognizes the economic challenges and possible fall-out for its people. I think they will be, and already are, psychologically preparing the Chinese people for some tough times, and possibly for a confrontation with the West. This is dangerous, albeit perhaps inevitable. My fear is that the US may escalate to a war in the same covert way it did with Russia, and with this we get even closer to a nuclear war, since neither part will accept defeat in these existential wars.
I wonder if the dark forces that benefit from these wars (the American MIC complex, for example) hasn’t been planning for exactly this outcome all along with the objective to maximize their profits.
Sorry for this gloomy post, but I feel many people are too belligerent, especially in the West, forgetting at the same time that violence only leads to more violence. The EU, instead of pushing for real diplomacy for the Ukraine problem, decided to follow the American narrative and fake diplomacy. I’m not very optimistic on our world prospects for the near and far future..
Hi HC,
What you say about China is correct, except that this is no secret there. It is openly discussed but also openly said that they will not concede to the US on Taiwan, or China’s relationship with Russia. It is a hard line.
Hi Amarynth. What is not clear to me is how far are the chinese people in supporting actions that may trigger serious consequences.
I roughly classify the willingness of the people of any country to face these consequences in three groups. There are those that give support to serious actions as long as this does not bring them any hardship. IMO, this was the case for the western people for bringing “democracy” and “justice” to Ukraine against Russia. They may be willing to send some weapons and give support to their government to act in the batsh*t way they are acting right now, but I surely doubt they will be happy at all in the case of economic (and other) hardship (that seems to be surely coming).
Then there those that recognize an external non-kinetic attack against them and are willing to withstand serious hardships, but are not yet ready to die for it. The attacks I’m talking about may be cultural, economic, etc. I think China may have been in this group up to the war in Ukraine.
And finally there are those who recognizes a total war on them. They are then willing to go to a kinetic war and die to defend their country against an external aggressive threat. From what I read in this blog, I believe this is the case of Russia now. It is also the case of Iran and other countries which have been under strong attack for some time.
What I meant to say in my previous comment is that I think the Chinese government recognizes the war in Ukraine for what it is, a covert attack by NATO on Russia, and feel they are next, and this, as you said, is indeed no secret. What is not clear to me, and I admit I’m no expert in Asia in general, and China in particular, is whether China is feeling so threatened that it is already transitioning to the third group, preparing not only for an economic war, but also for a total war. That does not bode well for world peace. In this case, I think they may do the jump and integrate Taiwan to the mainland sooner, rather than later.
The risk of all this is that, for Russia and China, this would be (or rather, is) an existential war. If the US also feels that way, a nuclear war is not far away.
Of course there is the fact that for Russia and China the war is indeed existential, since they are being attacked right on their borders. For the US, though, it is more like a fear of not feeling “exceptional” and “indispensable” anymore. The US has no reason to think they are being threatened like Russia and China are.
Anyway, this is just my opinion. Feel free to disagree, if you want.
Let’s pray for all to cool their heads and act rationally and respecting each other so we can have a better and safer future.
I’ll give you my opinion on the main question. This is based on contact with Chinese folks, reading a mass of Chinese materials and Chinese analysts and generally all that is necessary to write the Here Comes China column on the blog. There is a lot of research behind that.
There are private vehicles in China with the Z symbol on. The people on their massive social networks had to be reminded to chill out and stop sending around wicked war material – and I mean a Chinese person throttling a round eye – stuff like that.
The Chinese military posture is also not one of peacetime but some level of readiness. They are churning out military necessities (like missiles) like candy! They’re churning out ships like crazy. Their local civil defense receives military training and they are counted in the millions. School children as part of their physical training do military defense and learn defensive techniques.
So, my opinion – they will fight. What the clarion call would be for that decision, I cannot say. What I can say, is that the civilian population is ready.
Ok, Amarynth, thank you. I respect your time and opinion. Let us hope peace will prevail.
Russian official Alexey Polischtschuk:
“The special military operation will end when its tasks are completed. These include the protection of the peaceful population of Donbass, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as the elimination of the threat to Russia posed by Ukrainian territory because it was taken by NATO countries.”
Thanks to Allah, Jahwe, God (Gott, Dieu, Bog, Kali, Vishnu etc.) but predominantly to the wisdom and determination of the Russian decision makers and to the “unlimited friendship” between Russia and China that Russia is in a position to transform this challenge in a chance to change the world. The war might really become a revolutionary one.
We are all Russians!!!
I presume you know George Soros’ dad was an Esperanto specialist, even changing the family name from Schwarz to Soros? See Taras Soros’ biography.
Open Society Institute, anyone?
‘…the western world order which is characterized by the Protestants and Catholics…’ The Western world order is actually inherantly anti-religious. The author’s conclusions are sound, except he overestimates the power of the de-industrialised West and as a consequence he underestimates Russia. ‘…a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part…’ In my opinion President Putin hasn’t miscalculated anything.
Where we cannot now say what was a miscalculation and what not, it is a discussion among the analysts that Russia gravely miscalculated how they would be accepted in the Ukraine, and even the two republics.
Andrei (The Saker) has even written about this, with his thesis being that these people were so demotivated, that it was hard for them to even show any support.
It is only now that we are beginning to see the local populations showing support for the Russians as liberators.
“it is a discussion among the analysts that Russia gravely miscalculated how they would be accepted in the Ukraine, and even the two republics.”
This was a debate amongst analysts on the “performances” of strategists with agency.
The relationship between analysts with agency and strategists with agency is often that analysts with agency tend to concentrate on components which are validated through cooperation of analysts with agency and strategists with agency, and subsequently considered by more than one strategist in respect of interaction with other components before submission to the collective who make the decision and have defined the purposes, whilst more than one strategists constantly monitor the implementation and interactions of all of the components, and draw attention to and submit possible rectifications of components within the interactions, to those who have responsibility for implementation who feedback their opinions/preferences/reasons.
The analysts without agency tend to be spectators engaged in “Strategic porn” with varying motivations/putposes, but not always.
The evaluation is reserved to the collective who make the decisions and have defined the purpose who take ultimate responsibility.
The west is not anti-religious.
The west is fervently religious.
The west is anti-god.
Hello all. There were couple of things that I could not agree with in total but, this one I have to dismiss.
” It is an ideational conflict that shows the level of violence and degree of pain and cost that could be inflicted on Russia by the US-led western alliance. The war seems to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain in an enduring fashion across several domains beyond the kinetic tactical or operational battlefield of Ukraine will make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives. ”
When I read stuff like this, it puts a lot of whatever else I read from an analyst, into the circular file. This is not a game, it is an intentional move by Russia, with the full support of China. This is a very critical point and seeing this pushes the entire article into the fluff zone or catagory for me. It is not informative and very far removed from reality.
The viewpoint of the author, in this part, is similar to something out of a Holywood movie, light weight thinking type asessment. These kinds of thoughts result from the inability to keep ones face out of the headlines ( we all fight this ) and dial back to get a holistic picture of what is unfolding. This writer is in the weeds on that point. They need to stop looking at things as though it is a 30 minute episode of a sit-com.
After only two months the worst is over for Russia. They adjusted with incredible foresight and flexibility. One quote I was reading from the Russians, either on TASS or RT, was talking about a two year period of permenant adjustment to this change and then it will be in dried concrete. So, after reading point number four, I ditched the article. The rest didn´t matter.
World events cannot be tracked on the basis of perception which is guided by a Q-10 report format or mentality. We need to look at things, searching for what is unique within each event. As I obeserve what is going on, revolving around current events and their consequences, I have to say that my conviction that Russia completely ambushed the West is growing stronger all of the time. Russia is using every important element of Western modis operandi and turning it against them. For instance, this nonsense about the US intending a long war. Oh really there Poindexter? Yeah, they are going to go down that road and try it but, those wizards over there have forgotten that the capacity to manufacture what is needed to do this in Europe or North America does not exist. This is not 1940 in the US. They sold their capacity to wage war and sent it overseas, for pennies on the dollar to make a faster buck. The author of the article is blind to this, for my money.
There could be hundreds, maybe thousands of serious operational problems Russia has created for the collective West. Every week it seems that it wakes up to a new problem, that was already biting it in the butt. Hence, I am seeing within the next couple of years, the US will change it´s tune drastically and the EU, pffffffffffffft, man I have no idea what they are going to do. It will not be pretty.
I thank the Saker for offering this article to throw it into the mix, for reflection.
Regards.
I’m American, and I think you’re wrong about US intending a long war. They don’t intend to fight it, just finance it. Already a second $800 million arms package was announced, days after the first. Defense companies are making MASSIVE government contracts from this, with majority public support due to the war hysteria and propaganda, and that is what the US position is all about. And they will do this for as long as they can, and they believe that will be a long time.
I don’t think that Russia and China will get hurt any more than the U.S. or EU, the U.S. has its own problems with the split within its own population huge debt and the greed of the 1% and the 800 + bases they have. In a recent survey, some 52% said that this system of government no long worked for them, and I’m sure it’s much higher now and that will only increase as inflation continues to erode the worker’s income and as food and necessities become scare, it could be a long hot summer.
The EU is no better off as the price of fuel and natural gas explodes through the roof and the world settles into a deep recession or depression and probably the latter, then you have all the migrants with the drain on the countries financial systems which already are in dire shape. But regardless, it’s going to be interesting to see how the west is going to pull themselves out of this mess they have created.
So we may summarize all of that to simple: it’s war to prevent falling dollar down and in defence of US privilige to tax the world by printing their own money and steering inflation.
The author is way off on several points.
This war strengthens Russia on the geopolitical/political stage. Conversely had they not committed to this SMO they’d be extremely vulnerable. Zone B will be encouraged by events.
The US is weak, using yet another proxy to do their bidding.
The EU is a basket case.
This Center for China & Globilisation, must be 5th/6th column, spelling Center as Americans would.
People need to read this slowly, for understanding. There is nuance here.
Although there may be statements that you may not like (and there are ones that I do not like), the braggadocio that Russia is not suffering from sanctions is a miscalculation. In fact, they are talking about a +11% hit on this years income. They say themselves that it will take 2 years or so to re-connect their economy.
What is done here is what I would call a SWOT analysis – strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats – not rara!
In the long run, I believe we are going to see more sanctions blow-back and that the negative effect on the western cadres is going to be infinitely worse. But, Zamir looks at things as they are today. He is not trying to read a crystal ball. We all are trying to read crystal balls, to make us feel good.
This is a good piece overall, that brings people back to reality.
“Grave miscalculation” is a very strong statement. It implies that Russian leadership was not aware of the issues he listed. How does he know that? Perhaps he would like to tell us.Also, it would imply that the other side did not miscalculate. I don’t think statements like this are appropriate at this stage. I would suggest the author best withdraws it, or at least shows that issues he listed were not taken in the account appropriately and thus have led to the “grave miscalculation”.
It’s a good summary of facts ,opinions an general knowledge great for someone new to Saker
but very basic information,
Glad you think it is basic lol. I had to read it a few times.
Hi Amarynth, I appreciate your comments and dedication. You mention the crystal ball to make us feel good and I get it. Yet, among my impressions from that article, the author is dealing with his bad feelings about the situation by watching through a delusional (unreal) hypothetical crystal ball: Russia “should have waited”… if only Russia had not appeared to strike first… Now we are doomed kind of thing.
Also, he keeps repeating the word “ideational”… as if it might be the key word.
For me the key is about being real, being true.
I have the impression from this article of an attempt of recap’ on the global level… As the French saying goes: “Qui trop embrasse mal étreint “ ( who embraces too much doesn’t do it). The article leaves me with a sense of not being helpful. It is adding to the pile of people, like Noam Chomsky, who says that Russia made the mistake to react to the provocations and, by striking first, put Europe on US side and also claimed the war, even if apparently. The blame is then on Russia. Same for the systemic crisis blamed on Russia.
It sounds to me that there is still that struggle to get free from the western conditioning of being the good guys, even though all the evidences of doing bad things… of being wrong. So the denial, the blaming, finding the fault in the other (Russia), trying to redo the reality in our mind, like a virtual replay, trying to avoid taking responsibility, making things different than they are.
I don’t know where the author is from and it doesn’t matter really. He handles several important elements and yet his composition doesn’t do it for me. Hard to tell sometimes around perceptions.
I wish ourselves to handle the intensity of our feelings and keep things straight.
I realize that each nation has contradictions and conflicts of interests. It seems that it is about the basic choice of the countries to emancipate from the empire or not, enduring the effects of the sanctions no matter what you choose.
Might as well choose freedom.
Sovereignty.
It takes courage.
Thanks for all the work.
Eric, I still see you talk of feelings. I don’t, not with an analysis such as this. It is simply, where did he overstate, where did he understate and how does he gel with the environment as a whole.
Ideational is somewhat of a funny word. I got what he said and in my mind he means existential, civilizational, i.e., the platform, the foundation of the civilization. The beliefs, the internal view of oneself and so on. What is important to make a group into a country, into some cohesive whole.
This seems to be the key problem with the analysis:
“In terms of identity, it poses a simultaneous challenge in terms of race, religion, and nationalism. The western alliance sees this as the frustration of the Russian orthodox Christianity facing the challenge of the western world order which is characterized by the Protestants and Catholics.”
Simply because everything in this article is framed in terms of the concept of self-identity – ie the dominant individualistic ideology of the Western Woke Cult which defines and frames everything according to its own frame of reference.
So the Western world, through its self-id definition of reality sees this as “the frustration of the Russian orthodox Christianity facing the challenge of the western world order. Anyone else’s perspective is not even on the Agenda here. The author has framed this issue on the basis of a Western pathology – one wonders why?
Thus, Russia or anyone else has no agency. Conveniently discarding inconvenient facts and realities. Like the obvious to a blind man on a galloping horse process seen in countless countries over the past several decades which proceeds as follows:
– Someone does not toe the Western Elite globalist line by giving them access to resources these Western freeloader rentier carpetbaggers believe is their Manifest destiny entitlement regardless of the suffering it would cause the population.
– They are portrayed and attacked in information warfare as an ‘Official Enemy’ for not crying ‘Uncle.’ Portrayed as abusing human rights of some convenient minority (who are subsequently discarded once having served their purpose); authoritarian; not a democracy etc etc.
– Sanctions are applied. And increased. To the point where hundreds of thousands of children are effectively starved to death or allowed to die from lack of medicines as a ‘price worth paying’.
– Interference in internal elections occur. Colour revolutions. If they don’t work they arrest the winner and impose their own candidate.
– Then the bombing starts. Then the invasion, either directly or through proxy’s.
This has happened in Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.
You do know, by the way Prof. Awan, that everybody with a half a brain does know about the Rand report and the publicly stated aim of the US to dismantle Russia to get access to its resources for its bone idle thick as pig shit rentier elites who couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery?
But hey ho! Lets pretend all this context does not exist and is totally irrelevant. That Russia and China, among others, are simply ‘frustrated’ wannabe Empires rather than actually facing the same existential threat which has been carried out in countless other examples.
That way we can absolve our consciences that they are the misguided ones. Mere “Nationalists” who don’t understand that their roll is to roll over and take it up the backside and think of the Western Elites Share options for the sake of an unworkable form of ‘Globalisation’
The most positive thing one could say about this article and its analysis is that it is twenty days too late.
Please go and read at least the first paragraph.
“The last few decades have witnessed several wars, like the Iraq war, Libya war, Yemen war, Syria war, the Afghan war, etc. But all of such wars were designed by the US and executed along with NATO/ US allies. The US-style of wars, was first building a narrative, using media as propaganda, and then, involving the UN and international community, or convincing the rest of the world for its war acts. As a result, the US achieved its objectives without getting blamed for wars, aggressions, invasions, etc. Although millions were killed, millions were injured, many serious with lifetime disabilities, millions of houses were destroyed making millions of people homeless, forcing millions of people to live in refugee camps or take asylum in other countries and spend the rest of their lives in misery. Infrastructure was damaged, the economy was destroyed, social systems were damaged totally, changed regime installed puppets and dictated them to serve American interests, etc.”
That’s the point. There is no recognition of the processes and approach to creating these wars in which countries were destroyed and many bombed back to the stone age in terms of the same threat to Russia and China.
Russia’s perspective of the very real same existential threat is not even recognised. Simply reduced to being a “frustrated” wannabe Empire whose point of view is defined not by Russia but reframed to conveniently echo and mimic a Western defined context for a Western defined narrative.
The cause and effect link between the two is totally absent in an effort to deny agency in terms of defining the context to anyone but the West. That’s the core problem here.
The predicate which frames the output is this in bullet point 12:
“by a frustrated and provoked Russia which wants to be respected for its economic, political and strategic revival.”
and from which the rest of the content is extrapolated.
This is a recurring methodological weakness not only on websites – extrapolation from assumptions – which in the case of Tricycle on April 21, 2022 · at 9:31 am EST/EDT above leads to the extrapolation of “This should have been done way back in 2014 and not 8 years later…” circumventing the question – Why was this done in 2022 and not 2014?
Era un callejón sin salida para Rusia. Era una situación existencial para Rusia, mientras que, para occidente es algo que no se puede aceptar, pues, porque todo el resto del mundo debe aceptar sus reglas. En ese aspecto, Rusia no lo aceptaría más. Por ende, esta guerra si es que se pudo evitar, siempre y cuando el occidente respetara las leyes que la ONU establece. Más, occidente no realiza o aplica eso, sino, subvierte el orden, basado en su agresión y mediante la fuerza para alcanzar esos objetivos. Rusia, estaba preparada para hacer respetar las leyes y acuerdos, y no le quedó más que iniciar esta operación militar especial. Sino lo hubiera hecho, otro sería el escenario, una zona del este del Dombass masacrada por los nazis ucranianos y bien apertrechados por todo el occidente, pero, sin una justificación. El gobierno de Ucrania hizo trizas los acuerdos de Minsk y, los países garantes ni siquiera hicieron el esfuerzo por obligar a Ucrania cumpla con esos mandatos. Rusia, tomó muy en cuenta esa realidad. Entonces, Rusia tomó esa decisión que era inevitable, defender a su población de origen ruso, ruso parlante.
What war in Ukraine? There is no war in Ukraine, it is a “special military operation”. If it was a war Russia would call for mobilization, with every single able bodied man in Russia having to report for duty on the front lines. That is not happening so this is not a war.
Russia doesn’t even seem to be allowing volunteers from Syria into Ukraine, or volunteers from Russia and the Russian world. All Russia has to do is call for volunteers and tons from across the globe will flock to Russia’s banner. North Korea can easily send say half its special forces, at 200’000 troops it means 100’000 can be sent to Russia, that is almost double the amount of troops Russia has in Ukraine right now.
So because its not a war Russia seems to be taking her time in Ukraine, if something can’t be done today, its fine, next week is also ok, or the week after. Nato is not going to interfere in Eastern Ukraine, so there is no hurry. Poland might try something in Western Ukraine, but thats also ok, Russia can leisurely decide on what to do with the Poles after taking over all of Eastern Ukraine and arming and empowering the Russians there to hammer the UkroNazis. Heck, Russia can even turn Eastern Ukraine into its own “irregulars” to throw against West Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk can upgrade thousands of the mothballed t-80’s for this purpose.
Devil’s advocate…. Stopped reading halfway through., pointless.
I do believe that China is worried about that massive trade bonus they have with the West,and that is a major issue.Which is why they should be doing much more to turn their economy both inward to build up the domestic market. And outward to more friendly non-Western markets. No country that is vastly dependent on foreign trade can truly be a sovereign country. It’s too easy for those foreign countries to control you.
China’s support for Russia is a life or death situation for China,and I hope they realize that. If there was no Russia above them on the map that long border would be packed with US/NATO bases. And the US would be turning loose on them the same pack of economy killing wolves they are trying to use against Russia right now.
The one and only way they can survive the US/NATO threat is with a strong Russian ally supporting them.If it comes to giving up that trade bonus with the West ,or turning against Russia,if China picks the West they will be committing suicide.And they will be broken up just like the US/NATO plans to do to Russia. And all real sovereignty would be gone from what is allowed to be left of a Chinese state.A new century of humiliation would descent on China.
I am sure China realizes all of that. But there is also this historical Chinese “wisdom” : While the bear and the tiger are fighting in the valley, the clever monkey is sitting on the mounteen and waiting to finish off the exhausted survivor of the battle.
This BS is talk about nothing, because as everyone knows that all wars started when so called Empires started to run out of resource’s, business and in this case, it’s * evils Empire 😈 * and military komplex of Deep state.
Why are not the wealthy people’s homes bombed and destroyed? Looks like the war is against the poor even in Russia.
Someone, somewhere BTL on this site mentioned problems accessing the Strategic culture site. But I cannot find the comment again. Consequently, my sincere apologies if I’ve replied on the wrong thread.
I too was having the same problem. However, if you try again you should get up on your screen a little window which asks you to fill in two fields.
If you read the instructions in this window it ends by asking you to input the words “regru/regru”
If you put the single word “regru” in each field you get access to the site.
Hope this helps.
Thanks. I am not the OP but I hit the same problem
I figured out what is so strange here on this piece of work.
Most commentators are newbies.
Get comfortable with Prof Awan’s work. He has written many many articles for the Saker blog, and certainly knows what is cutting. You just have to pull out out of diplo speak, and understand and respect that he is a Muslim.
/?s=Zamir+Awan
Most are lazy – do not even try to look for sources.
Twitter with its short, word bites, feeds this, so blogs get lazy.
The author is talking from the globalist script. These people are terrified about their money and travel plans and are rationalizing everything at the moment. They are making lists one day, despairing some days, bargaining on other days, and waxing philosophical. They just dont have any other language with which to to cope. This must be a list day.
“They are making lists one day, despairing some days, bargaining on other days, and waxing philosophical.”
As Mr. Stalin related to Messrs Kaganovich and Molotov – The Bolsheviks learned to talk whilst I learned to listen.
The Author is here at
The Center for China and Globalization (CCG)
http://en.ccg.org.cn/archives/67538
is Ex-Counselor of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan .
The Center for China and Globalization (CCG) is a Chinese non-governmental think tank based in Beijing. CCG has been granted the official special consultative status by the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations (ECOSOC) as a non-governmental organization. In the “2020 Global Go To Think Tank Index” by the University of Pennsylvania Think Tank and Civil Society Program (TTCSP), CCG ranked 64th of the top think tanks worldwide and among the top 50 global independent think tanks. CCG has also been recognized as a “4A non-governmental organization” by Beijing Municipal government civil affairs department.
Many have noticed the Regime Change that the US just last week forced on Pakistan, as Khan visited Moscow without US permission. This will not affect close ties to China, and CPEC will not change, many report from Pakistan, and China concurs.
China supports Russia against the US/NATO, because China knows that it is next on the latter’s hit list. It doesn’t get any simpler than that.
What about China opening a two from war as another option rather than wait until the list says ‘next’. Look, this is the end of Euro/American global domination of the world economy that started more than 500 years ago when the West mechanized Eastern production system, stealing their technology. Paper making technology discovered by China remains the same as it was in China originally except for mechanization. It is also suspected India primitive making Iron remains the same but not acknowledged by the West.
That is why I think that we should start with short and simple messages all over the world with a call for a united condemnation of NATO, for a joint appearance of the free world at the United Nations to abolish NATO and cease to exist. That’s why I made a video that I posted somewhere on the blog. We need to spread those messages everywhere, stimulate the world to spread similar messages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW7xjX05N-s&t=8s
The tendency to overthink things is on clear display here. Reduced to its basic elements, this is a war of attrition against a nation that can supply all its internal needs, and that has a unified population whose will cannot be broken. The rest is just hand waving.
In simple terms, Russia has to feed no more than 200M people, which it has the means to do. China has over 1B people to feed and depends on Russia for energy, fertilizer and grain. That alliance cannot be broken. North America can feed its own people but cannot maintain current levels of economic prosperity in the face of growing social divisions and an invasion of migrants. Europe is in even worse shape as it has neither the energy or materials to sustain current levels, and has an even worse migrant problem than the USA.
Ironically, Europe and America’s migrant problem will eventually be resolved, as the source of those migrants, Africa and South America, realign themselves with the nations that can provide them the most economic benefit, Russia and China, and the subsequent economic revival removes the need to migrate.
America and Europe will eventually resign themselves to the new multi-polar reality. It will take time, and a lot of arrogant assumptions will have to be discarded, but in the end everyone will be better off for it, just not as wealthy as before, which was unsustainable to begin with and has now run its course.
Thanks bear, you know how to use a crystal ball.
The USD and currencies roughly pegged to it (like the EUR, JPY and CNY for now) are overvalued by at least 50%. Make that adjustment and then the world is a different place.
“The war seems to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part…”
Pardon me my frankness but it’s an idiotic remark. Ukraine was preparing to retake Crimea, leaving them the initiative would have been disastrous. It was either going on the offensive or forever kneel to American imperialism.
Pushing ukraine into this war was a miscalculation by the EUSUK axis. They are in for increasing economic pain. Their economies are more sensitive to sudden changes than Russia’s.
this writer could not be more in error.
it is the west NOT russia which desperately needs this war….why?
the western governments can no longer fund themselves under the keynesian socialist financing model of borrowing forever not paying anything back. as a result they are in varying stages of having to default on their sovereign bonds. in europe the pension system is insolvent now with zero % rates in a system needing 6-8% real yield to remain solvent. as a result the elites need a COVER under which to default without being blamed and russia invading ukraine provides that fig leaf.
the west can not survive at a high level of civilization without the raw material russia sells.
by cutting themselves off from russian oil, nat gas and minerals and fertilizers the western elites ENSURE their economies will implode thereby allowing them to default which have to anyway but BLAMING it on russia and using the media to sell this bullshit excuse to their dumbed down populations.
the western green movement is all for this economic collapse anyway since fosters the naieve belief they have that global warming is going wreck the earth. all it will wreck are those economies stupid enough to believe it and shutdown their industry as well as implode their citizen standards of living.
in a nutshell the war may look like a civilizational war between russia and the post industrial west and on some level that is true but not the primary motivator for the desperate west on the cusp on collapsing.
western need to misdirect the RAGE of their populations away from themselves as things go south…….russia has been chosen as the patsy de jure.
the problem for the west is they have bitten off more than they chew individually or collectively. wars are not won in the facebook metaverse or the cnn msnbc nightly news broadcasts but on the ground and on the ground the west is playing from an empty shelf with second rate weapons and a western population now too soft and weak to win or even sustain catastrophic casualties they WILL endure against russia.
Maybe it is easy to miss perspective :
First we had 2016 Brexit, quickly followed by Trump, both major earthquakes.
Followed by Italy, Greece, and even France’s proposed Exits – all stamped under the carpet.
Now the really Big One – Rexit ! Russia Exit!
Russia pulls the plug on the old globalism, paradigm, that Brexit and Trump tried and faltered at.
China on Feb 4 teamed up with Russia – Chexit (pardon my spelling).
What are poor infantile imperialists to do? Exit doors everywhere, why even Germany taking cold showers might be sobering?
This European long arc of history in the making may be missed in Pakistan, but they also see a long arc of history – the Silk Roads.
This is different from what I’ve read in recent weeks. I’ll leave the blog for what it is and wait for Saker’s next analysis.
The author writes:
“The war is not a choice but perhaps a strategic compulsion that Moscow felt for several reasons like challenges ranging from the global world order to the expansion of NATO and also concerns regarding the political leadership of Ukraine and its policies.”
I have to wonder if he has read Russia’s objectives and motivations. Russia has said that its main motive was protecting the Donbass republics from genocide and that it also seeks the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
Why not at least mention these things? He sounds like he is writing for the Atlantic Council.
Miscalculation by Russia ! I do not see that on the kinetic front they may have to adjust on the economic front . The collective west well not seeing anything going well for them at all!
Man, you guys below said it all. It is a slanted view of all that has happened, in a way to say that China and Russia is somehow losing. Last year with COVID, china’s exports to the EU was 690 billion, the USA 678 billion, east Asia 790 billion, Africa 300 billion. Who is missing from the stats quoted? South East and central Asia, south America including Brazil,and the Caribbean & Canada.
Canada where I live was 80 billion, and they can go and fly a kite. Russia has the greatest military arsenal in the world, and the oil, gas, minerals and food that the west needs to survive. The west now turn to Africa to steal food and resources, as they have always done before.
The sanctions are not working and will never work, and China does not need the West to grow. They only need them out of they’re way to keep building the global south. That too is coming, because all the western tricks have been laid bare. The West is so stupid that they don’t realize that their combined actions have laid bare their racism,and belief in White supeority.
In the meantime, we still have forces in Russia saying these sorts of things, and it is difficult to get rid of all of them. Afterall they have a democracy, whatever that means, but I thought that China had rid themselves of the CIA, NGO’s, “humanitarian organizations”, Facebook and the like. Clearly, there is some work that needs to be done.
I received some comments from our fraternal friend: Patrice Greanville at the Greanville Post. The Greanville Post cross-posted and they have the exact same response to Prof Awan’s article as myself.
The take-away from Patrice is: [… directly or indirectly rattling some self-complacent ideas and concepts that have become almost dogmatic among those who (justly) oppose the Western empire and the huge malignancy it represents.]
Rattle the complacency sweet commentators!
(Just to keep things clean, I do not physically moderate – we have a team for that).