by Andrew Korybko
As all observers have realized, the situation in Syria has noticeably gone from bad to worse. ISIL is advancing , the US and Turkey are preparing for a “ comprehensive battle ” there (ostensibly against the terrorists, but most reckon that it’s really against the Syrian Arab Army ), and Erdogan’s War on the Kurds is proving to be a smokescreen for the creation of an Kurdish-free “safe zone” for anti-Damascus terrorists. The US and its Turkish ally know that they have 6 months to finish what they started and depose of the democratically elected government in Syria before part of the billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds are returned to Tehran and immediately transferred to assist with Damascus’ defense. In light of the rapidly deteriorating circumstances and the situational urgency that’s compelling the US to speed up its end game in the Levant, Russia and Syria have taken to an intense round of shuttle diplomacy to an effort to stave off a wider war and save the last secular outpost in the Mideast.
The article begins by detailing some of the more meaningful meetings that have been held thus far as well as describing what their overall effect has been. Then, it speaks upon the ones that are to come and what they could eventually lead to in terms of calming the current crisis, which it must be said was formally triggered by Turkey’s offensive against Syria and its decision to allow the US to use the Incirlik base for bombing the country. Concluding everything is the suggestion of a fail-safe measure that Russia can resort in the event that diplomacy doesn’t reach the desired dividends, which in the event that it’s implemented, would deter the US and Turkey from attacking Syrian Arab Army positions and thus prevent the sought-after regime change scenario from ever materializing.
Keeping Count Of The Meetings
There have been quite a lot of bilateral and multilateral meetings that have taken place since the latest crisis broke out, and it’s useful to list some of the most important ones in chronological progression so that one may have a better idea of how things have progressed. My no means, however, should the list be taken as being comprehensive, as there have definitely been other meetings that occurred (even public ones) which are not being noted for brevity’s sake:
Russia-Saudi Arabia:
The two sides have actually been engaging in shadow diplomacy for at least the past couple of months, with the fruits of their labor first becoming publicly apparent only at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. At the event, not only did both sides sign a nuclear energy cooperation agreement, but it was also announced that President Putin and King Salman intend to visit each other by year’s end. Nothing was said about their consultations on Syria, but it can be taken as evident that they certainly discussed this most pressing geopolitical issue that’s served as an enormous hindrance to the elevation of bilateral relations. Considering later diplomatic developments that will be examined below, this most certainly seems to be the case.
Russia-Syria-Saudi Arabia:
Activist and analyst Ghassan Kadi translated and explained a monumental media report (which has not been denied or discredited by anyone) detailing a secret meeting that Russia arranged between the Syrian Chief of Home Security and the Saudi Defense Minister. According to the report, the meeting occurred sometime in mid-July, and the gist of it was that Saudi Arabia has finally realized that its Wahhabist spawn has become uncontrollable, and that it must therefore extricate itself from the proxy quagmire that it’s gotten itself into in Syria before the blowback becomes unbearable.
Additionally, the Saudis’ strategic interests in Yemen are overriding whatever cares they have further afield, and to their decision-making establishment, they’d rather divert the resources, money, and time from the proven-to-have-failed War on Syria to their latest military adventure along their southern border. Add to it Riyadh’s paranoid fears that Yemen has become a base for Iranian proxies, and it makes sense why the Kingdom would accept a defeat in Syria in order to salvage whatever strategic ground they can from Yemen (and as soon as possible, at that).
Russia-Saudi Arabia-Qatar(-US):
The next main stop on Russia’s diplomatic carousel was Lavrov’s meeting with his Qatari and Saudi counterparts in Doha at the GCC meeting, which also saw him have a conversation with Kerry. Syria was obviously on the agenda, and it’s likely that Russia spoke to the Saudis about their possible proxy pull-out; the Qataris about dropping their support for Al Nusra ; and the US about accepting its loss in achieving regime change and in dealing with the practicality of working with President Assad. What is solidly known, however, is that Russia used the occasion to unveil the details of its latest anti-ISIL initiative , which sees a coalition of regional states (Saudi Arabia among them) working hand-in-glove with the Syrian government to squash the terrorists. It’s not forecast that the proposal will lead to any concrete results in the near future, but it’s salient for being the only non-US-led anti-ISIL coalition suggestion at this time, and as such, it provides a starting point for each of the relevant players to beginning discussing the details of what it would look like, provided that they (or some of them) have the political will to do so.
Russia-Syria-Iran:
Almost concurrently with Lavrov’s visit to Doha, Russian Special Envoy to the Mideast Mikhail Bogdanov attended a meeting with the Syrian and Iranian Foreign Ministers in Tehran. The exact details of their pow-wow weren’t released, save for the important announcement that Iran will soon be submitting a four-point UN proposal for resolving the Syrian Crisis. Syrian MP Khaled Al-Aboud elaborated a bit by intimating that it would essentially be a joint Russian-Iranian effort due to the fact that both sides work closely together when it comes to Syria and complement each other’s peace-promoting activities there. The significance of this meeting lies not only in its conflict-resolution contents, but also in its specific timing, in that it demonstrates that Russia is capable of simultaneously conducting multiple layers of crisis diplomacy (Lavrov in Doha, Bogdanov in Tehran) to deal with the War on Syria, thereby negating the naysayers (such as Erdogan ) who believe Russia is going to “give up Assad”.
Russia-US:
The final round of jet-set diplomacy saw Lavrov meeting once more with Kerry in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, where the two dignitaries once more discussed the War on Syria. The most impactful news coming out of this round of talks was that the US and Russia had agreed to a draft UN resolution about chemical weapons use in Syria. It must be said here that this comes off as a double-edged gambit by both sides, since the US could use false accusations of chemical weapons use by the government (as it tried to do in 2013) to ‘justify’ a full-fledged military response, but also, Russia’s proposed anti-ISIL coalition could use the proof that terrorists had recently employed such weapons (and likely will continue doing so) to christen their own united military campaign. Still, the US isn’t above utilizing the unethical excuse of its own proxies using chemical weapons to formally launch its conventional regime change campaign. The draft UN resolution might of course end up being a non-event in the current crisis, but by the looks of it, it could likely have a more impactful role than many observers currently believe.
EXTRA: Syria-US:
While not officially confirmed by either side due to the sensitivity behind their talks, in an Al-Akhbar article translated by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi, it’s revealed that Syria and the US have been directly contacting one another in secret, and that Syrian Foreign Minister Muallem’s visit to Oman (the first to an Arab country since the war began) might lead to a surprise meeting with his Saudi counterpart. Another outlet reports that “Oman-based al-Watan said there may also be a meeting among top representatives from Syria, Oman, Iran and Saudi Arabia”, which would confer with Al-Akhbar’s analysis and source. As the latter notes in the Kadis’ translation, Muallem’s Gulf visit wouldn’t have been possible had the US not authorized his hosts to initiate it, indicating that the US might sincerely be open to a non-regime change scenario in Syria and possibly even eventually accepting (no matter how regrettably this may come to some Washington strategists) of Russia’s anti-ISIL proposal. It’s still way too early to tell where all of this is going, or even if it will lead to anything at all, but the seemingly corroborated reports of a Syria-US opening do create grounds for speculation, and perhaps even hope, that the US might be on course to back down from its Brookings Institute-advised invasion of Syria .
The Next Steps
The coming week will continue the diplomatic marathon over Syria, with two important visits possibly occurring in Moscow:
“Syrian National Coalition”:
The so-called “Syrian National Coalition” (SNO), the main anti-government organization opposed to President Assad, has been invited by Russia to visit the capital next week. While this isn’t the first time such an offer has been extended (it was previously refused), should the group agree, it would demonstrate that its foreign patrons recognize Moscow’s mediation efforts and are open to allowing their proxy to partake in the Inter-Syrian Dialogue that has taken place there twice before. One shouldn’t get their hopes up in any case, but the fact that Russia has once more invited the SNO at this particular juncture in time also shows how serious it is about revving up the reconciliation efforts prior to the US and Turkey’s possible commencement of an all-out conventional war against Syria.
Saudi Foreign Minister:
Unlike the SNO, the Saudi Foreign Minister is to be a confirmed guest in Moscow next week (as stated by a source in the Saudi Embassy), where he’ll meet with Lavrov supposedly to speak about King Salman’s forthcoming visit later this year. While that’ll surely be one of the things that they talk about, it’s improbable to believe that the two Foreign Ministers won’t continue their conversation about Syria. In fact, it could very well be that the War on Syria is the whole reason for the Saudi Foreign Minister’s trip, and that the public explanation about preparing for the King’s visit is meant to be a plausibly acceptable rationale to deflect speculation from the true motivation for their meeting. More and more, it looks like Russia and Saudi Arabia are serious about reaching an arrangement on Syria, and that Riyadh might realistically be looking for a face-saving way to pull out of the fray.
* * *
A bit further down the line, there’s also two major events that are supposed to take place which deserve to be spoken upon in brief:
Putin-Erdogan Meeting:
Erdogan might visit Moscow in November to discuss the Balkan Stream pipeline (the subject of which was the one of the main themes of the author’s last article ), which would bring Syria’s main international protagonist (Putin) together with its main antagonist (Erdogan). It’s still far in the future and a lot will obviously transpire before then, but going along the lines of the Saudis’ public excuse for their Foreign Minister’s forthcoming visit to Moscow next week, such major events do require quite a lot of preparation, and it can be taken as a given that Russian and Turkish diplomats are in close contact with another about this and other affairs of mutual interest (most relevantly, Syria).
Accordingly, just as is the case with the Russian-Saudi diplomatic meeting discussed above, high-level diplomats on both sides can meet each other under the public auspices of ‘preparing for the big visit’ in order to talk about more pressing concerns such as Syria. Lastly, the author encourages the reader to check out his piece about Erdogan (hyperlinked in the last citation) to learn more about the possibility (however distant at this moment) for Turkey to cut deal with Russia over Syria in exchange for advantageous energy pricing and other sorts of benefits.
Putin-Salman Meeting:
In a deeper vein than Putin’s meeting with Erdogan, the Russian President and Saudi King are expected to make visits to one another’s country by the end of the year. As has been discussed, this provides plenty of diplomatic cover for officials to discuss affairs beyond the scope of the prepared visits, such as Syria, but given how rapidly Russian-Saudi relations have accelerated in the past couple of months (for example, Saudi Arabia announced in July that it would invest up to $10 billion into the Russian economy), a major announcement could also be made at the time of either leader’s visit to the other.
Keeping with the theme of this article, and looking at what seems most likely at the moment, it could be that both sides formally announce their collaborative efforts in supporting Syria’s War on Terror. It might sound incredulous at this moment to consider Saudi Arabia as an anti-terrorist crusader, but keeping in mind how far Russian-Saudi relations have progressed in so short of a timeframe, as well as how ISIL has proven itself to be an American tool for dissolving the Saudi Kingdom (or at the very least, exerting enormous pressure on it to accede to all future American demands), it’s not unfeasible that the Saudis would eventually turn against their spawn and help the Russian-proposed international coalition defeat them in Syria.
The Fail-Safe Suggestion
Thus far, it seems that Russia’s grand strategic vision is for a UN-approved and inclusive (in that it includes the Syrian Arab Army, unlike the current and ineffective American format) anti-ISIL coalition to take the helm in leading the fight against terrorism in the region, and that a joint Russian-Iranian diplomatic proposal can be applied in parallel to bring about an inter-Syrian reconciliation. In the event that neither of them succeeds and in order to preempt what might be the US and Turkey’s final and horrific hurrah in bringing about regime change in Syria, Russia can always resort to the fail-safe measure of embedding its active Syrian-based military advisors into the Syrian Arab Army’s frontline positions.
There was talk this week that Russia might be prepared to send its Airborne Troops to Syria if the decision is made, but that was quickly brushed aside by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who firmly declared that “this possibility is not on (the) discussion agenda at all”. Nonetheless, the Syrians are actively exploring ways in which Russia can be of further assistance to their armed forces in the latest bout of their over four-year-long anti-terrorist campaign, since three senior military officials arrived in Moscow on Monday to do just that . The timing is of course no coincidence, as it occurs during the escalation of the US and Turkey’s War on Syria and the ongoing crisis over what they’ll do next, so one must wonder exactly what kind of “exchanges in experience in the fight against terrorism” they were particularly looking for at this critical moment of time.
It can be inferred that the visit likely had something to do with the Syrians seeking a strategic consultation over how to counter the US’ latest “Division 30” ploy, whereby a small group of elite proxy units were deployed to the country from Turkey under the protective cover of American airstrikes. On the same day that the Syrian military representatives arrived in Moscow, the news came out (likely known at least shortly beforehand by Russia via their world-famous intelligence-gathering network) that Obama had authorized the Pentagon to bomb any entity fighting against this group, including the Syrian Arab Army if such a clash occurs. Of course, this provocation could lead to a split-second escalation of the War on Syria and the formal American bombing of all Syrian military and government installations in as rapid of a regime change fashion as they moved in Libya, so it’s definitely taken into serious consideration by Moscow, and strategic attempts at deterring this dire scenario were most assuredly thrown about during the meeting.
If Russia is absolutely serious about removing the potential for the US to use a Syrian Arab Army attack on “Division 30” as the escalation trigger for ushering in their pre-planned full-scale regime change operation, then it could take the brave and resolute step of positioning its Syrian-based military advisors on the anti-terrorist frontline alongside the Syrian Arab Army. This decision could realistically be communicated to the US via formal/informal intelligence and diplomatic channels so that Washington could be aware of the unspeakable consequences of striking back at the Syrians as they respond to “Division 30’s” provocations. While a seemingly risky suggestion to some, it is a proven fact that the US military has never directly targeted a Russian serviceman, choosing instead to rely on its proxies for such a grisly task (be it the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan or terrorists in Chechnya ). The reason for this is clear – a direct attack by the US on a Russian military unit is a flagrant cause for war, and even under the currently tense conditions, there is no way that the US would make such an unthinkable move. That being said, if Russia deployed its in-country military advisors to the field alongside the Syrians as they combatted “Division 30”, they’d call Obama’s bluff and deter a Pentagon reprisal attack, which would give Syria free reign to mop up the group’s members without chancing that the US would use the opportunity to roll out its formal regime change offensive.
Concluding Thoughts
The situation in Syria has become extremely dire as of the past few weeks, with the US and Turkey threatening what appears to be their last-ditch effort at forcing regime change on the country. Russia is strictly opposed to this plot, and accordingly, it’s been doing whatever it reasonably can on the diplomatic front to prevent this from happening. Building upon its recent inroads in relations with Riyadh, Moscow has taken to courting the Kingdom in a bid to get it to pull out of the anti-government game and accept its inevitable loss. Likewise, Russia has also sought to simultaneously strengthen its relationship with Iran so that both of Syria’s primary allies can present a united proposal aimed at solving the country’s domestic woes. Bridging everything together, Russia envisions that its ambitious anti-ISIL coalition proposal could form the basis of a realistic alternative to the US’ failed (and false-fronted) multilateral effort at fighting the terrorist group, which could take pressure off of the Syrian government and allow it to more assertively liberate its sovereign territory without fear of that said coalition one day being used against it.
As constructive as Russia’s proposals are, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be fully successful, which is why Moscow must realize the one fail-safe measure that it can employ in order to stop the US and Turkey from escalating their War on Syria to all-out and conventional regime change proportions. Since the US has threatened to bomb any entity that fights against its elite “Division 30” proxy, including the Syrian Arab Army, it’s entirely possible that such an on-the-ground clash could be used to set off the final fireworks for the Pentagon’s campaign in the country, hence why this dangerous scenario must be avoided at all costs. It’s unrealistic to think that Syria would allow the US’ private army to march from the Turkish border all the way to Damascus without being opposed, so after a certain period of time, the two sides will inevitably cross swords, which could then open up the Pandora’s Box of US-led military pandemonium. However, if Russia makes the hard (but strategically necessary) decision to order its in-country military advisors to position themselves alongside the Syrian Arab Army’s anti-terrorist front line, then it can prevent the US from bombing its Syrian equivalent as it pounds back against its proxy, which would foil its escalatory regime change plans and save the country from a Libyan-esque fate.
Andrew,
Once again a minor masterpiece of information and insight. Thanks for the details and researched links.
Russia must hold no matter. If Syria falls under this Turkey-US airpower scenario, Russia will be driven from the Mediterranean. It loses its naval base and is shamed with its allies and customers.
Though, strategically different than Ukraine, it is similar to Crimea. Unthinkable loss to the hegemon.
Assad is symbolic. But Syria is real and the reality must hold, be held.
Iran and Hezbollah are not powerful enough to hold back the US-Turkey-NATO madness. Thus, it falls on Russia.
I am wondering and have searched for signs of Chinese military joining at some point.
Have you any information about how or when or if the Chinese would come aboard the defense of Syria.
The Mediterranean is very important to Chinese commerce and the live fire training with the Russian navy there seemed to be to send a message that the multi-polar giants were there to stay. They both need Syria stabilized.
Also the Chinese and Turks have issues regarding the Uyghurs who are Turkic and the training of terrorists in Turkey-ISIS camps.
So, it seems China would join in some ways.
Again thanks for the article.
The “Turks” are trying to spread their influence throughout the Central Asian states by using the fable of Pan-Turkism there.But an easy look at the Turkic speaking “Turks” in Turkey.And the Turkic speaking Turks of Central Asia show them to be widely different peoples.While its true “some” Turks in today’s Turkey have some Turkic ethnic background they are far the minority.Most of today’s Turks in Turkey are the assimilated Anatolian population of centuries past.The Central Asian Turks are far closer in appearance to their Mongolian cousins.The real “Turks” are in Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Northwest China and Western Mongolia.All the others in Central Asia (and the Chinese Uyghurs) are very heavily mixed, with the majority being assimilated and intermarried peoples of Iranic background.Again an easy, quick, look at them shows that.
Thanks Uncle Bob, very interesting.
Yeah, it’s sad Kazakhstan xinjiang were part of India, until 7 800 ad.
Yeah, I guess that is why they all look like Indians. What do Indians look like? When did Indian the nation come to existence? You could turn off “Jersey Shore” for a few minutes and look that up yourself.
Uh, Now Saker has a Embedded Indian Troll. There was never a Indian nation but a bunch of small countries in Indian Sub continent before British. XinJiang was never any part of that sub continent at any time in history. The people in XinJiang or central Asia has ever be look like people from Indian Sub continent. Save you pride some where else, it may help your ego, but that will never help you making any friends.
@
Q; Have you any information about how or when or if the Chinese would come aboard the defense of Syria.
R; Based upon the images I’ve seen, the destruction of infrastructure and housing [in Syria] is humongous. On top of that, fighting protracted wars is costly [both in lost lives as well as money], yet after 4 Years, Syria hasn’t crashed financially.
According to the CIA’s World Fact Book, the Syrian economic and financial situation is as follows;
“Despite modest economic growth and reform prior to the outbreak of unrest, Syria’s economy continues to deteriorate amid the ongoing conflict that began in 2011. The economy further contracted in 2014 because of international sanctions, widespread infrastructure damage, diminished domestic consumption and production, reduced subsidies, and high inflation. The government has struggled to address the effects of economic decline, which include dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising budget and trade deficits, and the decreasing value of the Syrian pound and household purchasing power. During 2014, the ongoing conflict and continued economic decline worsened the humanitarian crisis and elicited a greater need for international assistance, as the number of people in need inside Syria increased from 9.3 million to 12.2 million, and the number of Syrian refugees increased from 2.2 million to more than 3.3 million. Prior to the unrest, Damascus began liberalizing economic policies, including cutting lending interest rates, opening private banks, consolidating multiple exchange rates, raising prices on some subsidized items, and establishing the Damascus Stock Exchange. The economy remains highly regulated by the government. Long-run economic constraints include foreign trade barriers, declining oil production, high unemployment, rising budget deficits, increasing pressure on water supplies caused by heavy use in agriculture, rapid population growth, industrial expansion, and water pollution, and the degree of war-damaged infrastructure.”
With so much behind the curtains diplomacy and secret meetings, it will be impossible to deduce what player is actively supporting the Syrian government financially, but something has to give at one point or another.
Thank you for your kind feedback, as always Larchmonter445!
It’s Iran and Hizbullah which have been aiding Syrian forces with training and manpower for the last four years. Hizbullah, which doesn’t have a single tank or F16, has defeated the Jewish army twice in the past – in 2000 and 2006. Iran has one of the most powerful army in the region, but it’s already hounded by western powers from all sides.
During the last four years, Putin has been listening to Netanyahu and Lieberman, how to stop Iran becoming a hegemonic regional power and has done everything to please his Jewish buddies in Russia and abroad. The reason Putin has jumped into the Syrian mess – because Netanyahu confided in him that Syria under increased Iran and Hizbullah influence would become an “existential” threat to Israel in the future.
Israel’s real target is Lebanon and not Syria or Iran. Syria and Lebanon have common borders with Israel. Syria has never attacked Israel while Hizbullah has been at open war with the Zionist entity since 1982. Syria doesn’t have much of oil or freshwater; two essentials for the Jewish occupation of Palestine. Lebanon has plenty of freshwater reserves and that’s why Israel invaded the country three-times in the past.
http://rehmat1.com/2015/10/10/israels-biggest-prize-would-be-lebanon/
Apart from the Turkish air strikes on supposed IS and PKK targets, I don’t have the impression that the situation is more dire then last year. Although that is the picture they paint in the western controlled mass media. They tend to report on IS advances and keep quiet when they are kicked out a week later, or attempted infiltrations fail. If you balance the western propaganda a bit with the Syrian propaganda(http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/08/04/sitrep-middle-east-august-4-2015/), the SAA together with Hezbollah and Iranian organized militias seem to do better the last 8 months then the years before.
Mr Mente…that’s an ignorant statement considering all the alternative media focus on Syria in the past weeks…Veterans Today is not a reliable source…Andrew Korybko and Oriental Review are.
Great analysis Andrew – very comprehensive.
Two quibbles:
Not sure why embedding Russian officers with the Syrians on the front – line would stop the US-Turkey (NATO) initiative: :isn’t that exactly what the Ukraine provocation attempted?
Unless the dynamics have changed (the French are no longer so keen on regime-change, and they have been major provocateurs against Assad)?
The other is that Division 30 was attacked by Al Nusra a few days ago, and all but five eliminated. According to the tweets of one US diplomat this ‘wasn’t supposed to happen.’ It seems pretty unlikely the US are going to be able to maintain any viable distinctions between the competing ISIL groups and control the outcomes.
It also looks like the Erdo attacks on the PKK (Turkish Kurds) can no longer be hidden behind attacks on ISIL . That puts the US in an awkward place in terms of justifying the Turkish alliance.
I have also heard a rumour that the Syrian Kurds have thrown their lot in with Assad , making a proposed US -controlled ‘Kurdistan’ even more problematic.
http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/822115
Omani, Syrian FMs Discuss Ways to End Crisis in Syria
August 06, 2015 – 23:38
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah and his Syrian counterpart Walid al-Muallem held a meeting in the Omani capital on Thursday during which they stressed joint effort to end ongoing crisis in Syria.
printPrint
A report by Oman News Agency (ONA) said the two sides discussed “several regional and international topics of common interest.”
Also see
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article42559.htm
The Brookings Institute Plan to Liquidate Syria
By Mike Whitney
August 06, 2015 “Information Clearing House” – “Counterpunch’ – Here’s your US foreign policy puzzler for the day: When is regime change not regime change?
When the regime stays in power but loses its ability to rule. This is the current objective of US policy in Syria, to undermine Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s ability to govern the country without physically removing him from office. The idea is simple: Deploy US-backed “jihadi” proxies to capture-and-hold vast sections of the country thereby making it impossible for the central government to control the state. This is how the Obama administration plans to deal with Assad, by making him irrelevant. The strategy is explained in great detail in a piece by Michael E. O’Hanlon at the Brookings Institute titled “Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war”. Here’s an excerpt:
[…]
[link to Hanlon piece: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/06/30-deconstructing-syria-ohanlon ]
Crazy Russian Hacker branches out from U-Tube to get a bigger audience?
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/06/423601/Report-Russia-hacking-US-Pentagon
Russian hackers carried out a cyber attack against the unclassified email system of the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff in late July, a report says.
On Thursday, NBC News cited unnamed sources as saying that no classified information had been taken or revealed during the “sophisticated cyber intrusion” that affected about 4,000 military and civilian personnel around July 25.
The Pentagon confirmed that the Joint Chiefs’ email system was taken offline following the attack pending an investigation but declined to elaborate.
Surely some of this hacking will turn up truths about the likes of MH17, Maidan, ISIS, ISIS “fake” beheadings! The ISIS US/Mossad operatives – Foley, Haines et al.
All of that sort of stuff.
When will it be broadcast for the world to see on RT? Or on Sputnik? It is worth doing.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/06/423469/syria-homs-isil-assad-takfiri-militants
ISIL terrorists have managed to capture a key town in the central Homs province, a UK-based monitoring group says.
The militants “seized al-Qaryatain town in the southeastern countryside of Homs after violent clashes” with Syrian soldiers, Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the so-called Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP Thursday.
MAP NOT CURRENT:
http://www.kaboomlatam.com/novosite/syria-war-map-87.png
ISIL’s invasion started after three Takfiri bombers targeted checkpoints manned by Syrian soldiers at entrances to the city early on Wednesday.
If one is to condense Mr. Andrew Korybko’s article, one would most likely arrive at the following formula;
R2 {Y1 : X1} U2 = EMD2
In which:
R = Russia
Y & X = Any other country, with or without nukes, but led by sock puppets.
U = Globo Cop
EMD = Ensured Mutual Destruction
One doesn’t fight cancer with band aids; one forcefully removes it with knives [or laser].
Still, occasionally, I have to pinch myself, because I’m rooting for RIC [Russia, Iran and China] and have turned my back on ‘Team USA’ [or at least on its ‘coaches’ and ‘owners’].
What a
whiskedwhippedwicked world I find myself living in today…Saker,
the situation is indeed extremely difficult, and dangerous. In Ukraine, Novorossya is saying that Kiev does not want to withdraw its arms according to the Minsk agreement: it looks to me we may have war again on both front, and I hate to think about its possible result.
I am glad to read your comment to Saker regarding Ukraine.
It is a year since Maiden and the woman raped and strangled who was due to give birth.. How can one forget the terrible deeds of those days, and where are those who perpetrated all those horror crimes in the name of fascism?
My feeling is that those forces for evil have greatly intensified since then, worldwide, and that we will see war in Ukraine. It is Russia, Russia, of which Ukraine is part, that needs to be saved.
Putin & Erdogan will most certainly meet in November – in Turkey.
Turkey is hosting this year’s G20 Conference – In November 15, 16, 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_G-20_Antalya_summit
There is no legal authority for any of these aggressive action by the US, of course, and the US doesn’t care. This stuff will continue, world wide, until US power and the empire is eliminated. Until then it is a matter of trying to contain it and minimize the damage, but that’s not a solution, and it drains the world of needed resources. It’s like trying to put out forest fires while arsonists are going around lighting new ones. Along the way the arsonists one finds have to be neutralized, and at some point whack-a-mole must be recognized by everyone as just stopgap.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article42558.htm
Does Obama Have Legal Right to Defend Syrian Rebels With Air Force? State Dept. Can’t Answer
By RT
“I frankly don’t know what the legal authority is,” Toner said, adding that the situation in Syria remains “complex and fluid.”
Critics are questioning what exact authority the White House has to go ahead with the mission after minimal consultation with the UN Security Council?
Posted August 06, 2015
[video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXst5iwxGkM ]
blue, the ‘septic tanks’ invented the right to launch an aggression (the ‘supreme crime’ according to the Nuremberg Judgments)against anyone, in defiance of International Law and the UNSC, by reference to the infamous Nazi jurist, Carl Schmitt and his doctrine that ‘the Leader'(or Fuhrer if you prefer)is the ‘exception’ to the Law, and can decide to do anything. Really existing Nazified ‘Exceptionalism’. Can’t you just see that feeding Uncle Obama’s prodigious egomania?
Well, that’s a fabulous article. I’m so proud of Russia to be doing all this work to save Assad and Syria as it has been for millennia. And I’m so proud that Hezbollah will have a strong friend perhaps ‘on the ground’ beside it soon. Thanks so much Saker for educating me about all this.
Thank you Ann!
A Very well written and researched article Andrew. it does provide hope that things will change for the better, although my first instinct is to not trust the US or Saudi Arabia. I agree with your conclusion which should deter the US from attacking the Syrian Army…once again I will mention that Europe has no energy and are desperate so it really shouldn’t matter if gas & oil pipelines come from Qatar, Iran, or Russia…but imagine what a joint venture would do…that would be a prosperous win, win for everyone…however, the only ones that will not be happy are the American’s, which is why, as you say, Russia will need to counter by putting their military advisors alongside the Syrian Army…the question will be how desperate the US will be in trying to maintain its iron fist over World energy and global economics…would they risk World War III to try and keep it…there are a lot of lunatics in the US power structure that would…fingers crossed that there is same sanity left in the top echelons of the American oligarchic power structure…
sentence containing inappropriate language has been removed …. moderator-hs
The single best thing Russia could do for Syria is to ship them a new anti-aircraft system now, something like the S-300 or S-400. That would make it impossible for the US to act as ISIS’ air-force. The only option left for the US at that point would be a ground invasion of Syria–completely without air back-up. Obama’s too chicken to contemplate such a thing.
Well meaning, but I disagree with the main premise, i.e. ‘Syria has noticeably gone from bad to worse’ and that a wider war is coming. I say Syria is winning. Washington’s stomach for a wider war was turned in 2013. Notwithstanding the Daesh offensives in Daraa, Idlib and eastern Homs, the heavily populated areas of Syria are under noticeably stronger army control than they were in 2013. The economic hardships are now worse but they have not broken Syria’s will to resist, and takfiri ‘territory held’ is much less than suggested by western groups. A string of formerly hostile states and UN agencies are resuming their relations with Syria, and of course the Iran deal is important. The western media does keep claiming that Syria is dysfunctional and is losing major battles. However a recent visit to Syria helps reinforce my view that Syria is winning. I will write more on this soon.
Pro-Syrian blogs and Tweeters and such tend to have a rather positive view of things these days. Whether Damascus will ever regain control over the whole country is another matter. Perhaps a lot of the diplomacy is over possible deals to change the map.
Israel and Netanyahu are going all out to stop the Iran Nuclear Deal. it was announced today Sen. Schumer has decided to vote against the deal paving the way for other democrats to vote no. Sen. Merkley of Oregon has refused to reveal his position. Israel, it seems, even more than the Saudis, wants to stop any Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Syria: Why would Russia put Russian advisers in front of Force 30 to call the bluff of US/Turkey/NATO in Syria when a year ago it did not do a similar feint in the Ukraine which has much more geopolitical importance for it? (I understand the long term geopolitical strategy involved with Minsk II) And where is your analysis of the Kurds? and Kurdistan. There are Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and to have their own national homeland has always been a deep longing for them. sigh I suppose I could get lots of thanks for saying nice, supportive comments but at the risk of being labeled a troll, I figure a little demand for critical thinking goes a longer way in the quest for deeper analysis.
Hi teranam13,
I’ve written about the Kurds and their related issues before for Sputnik and Oriental Review, but here’s are the two most recent ones I published:
http://orientalreview.org/2015/08/06/erdogans-erratic-behavior-explained/
http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20150803/1025350334.html
I chose not to focus on that particular, yet important, element of the overall conversation in order to keep the article relevant to the examined topic — the shuttle diplomacy to save Syria.
Best,
Andrew
@ Korybko .thanks will read them carefully. Kurds are key to dealing with Turkey which is key to dealing with NATO/US vis a vis Syria.
@ Andrew Korybko: Before the attack on Iraq the US wanted to use Turkish bases for a northern assault and 90% of the Turkish people opposed this. Now, Erdogan is allowing the use of these bases. He is anything but confused and this is not a man who gets “cold feet” ( have you checked out his absolutely patronizingly authoritarian, stubborn personality?). He is a Turkish nationalist to the max and Crimea once belonged to Turkey so pre election he has to make the proper snorting noises towards Russia. Likewise after the elections he will do the pipeline deal unless in order to stay in power he has to ally himself with pro-Western elements (it is not about money entirely). Meanwhile he is well on his way to alienating other groups within Turkish society–the young, the intellectuals, the more moderate Islamists etc. Making the Kurds a scapegoat is a winner and maybe he feels he can get the US to broker a deal with a northern Iraqi Kurdistan in which the price for their statehood recognized in the UN will be feeding of the Turkish Kurds to him including the resulting mass migrations to the “new” State of those who won’t buckle under ( beats having to seek the Armenian solution) Who knows?
I do find your analysis OK but too reasonable. The folks you are dealing with are megalomaniacs –they truly believe they can make or break states/people/movements etc.– and the insane rhetoric one hears in the circus called the US election campaign is just a more insane reflection of a cold calculating intent by much more ruthlessly capable people. This is why people who still have integrity and heart are the basis of opposition to their fiendish ( I do not use this word lightly) plans.
Knowing the history of how rusdia has always backed down to please anglo enemies the chance of syria or any ally being rescued by dithering rusdia is very slim.
War and diplomacy is won by show and wiklingness touse the Force and not by long winded logic.war is run on fuel of emotion and not by logic.
Dear Andrew,
Thank you again for another excellent analysis.
Erdogan seems hell bent on his new “Ottoman” empire. He is dragging up the Crimean Tartars and hosting confrences to lecture Russia! I wouldn’t trust the guy as far as I could throw him. He seems to want to ruin Russian diplomacy by trying to tarnish Russia. Erdogan’s popularity is waning at home – he may make a very fatal error.
The US calling Assad the “root of all evil” just adds further fuel to the fire. I wonder if Turkey and the US will be left alone on this and the Qataris and Saudis finally turn away from this disaster? The UK already has the SAS on the ground and they aren’t even hiding the fact…….
I truly wish and hope with all my heart that this can be resolved diplomatically and the Syrian people can once again be left alone and live in peace. They have been through enough.
Regards,
Veritas
Thank you Veritas!
Unfortunatelly (besides the unprovable report about the secret Russian-Syrian-Saudi meeting) I don’t see any indication as to what is the current Russia’s direction with respect to the Syria. The official meetings were about business and that the “saving of Syria” was on the agenda is a plain conjecture.
I would be very surprised to see Bashar in power (and even alive) by the end of the year.
I again proffer my solution to Daesh and the illegal war waged on Syria. Both Iraq and Syria must ask Russia, Iran and China to become the core members of a coalition whose aim is to roll-up Daesh and Al-Ciada to the border with Palestine and into that country where they belong. Hezbollah’s help is good but not enough to do the job. And both Daesh and Al-Ciada are unwilling to negotiate unless properly pinned against a wall. This is very much like the Spanish Civil War with the Outlaw Empire playing the role of the Nazis; but this time, the Free World cannot allow the Republicans to lose as the consequences are much greater.
Thanks to Andrew Korybko for this analysis.
I have a question regarding the American position. What exactly would be the American interest in intervening and engaging in an all out war in Syria? If we agree that all what happened so far was in favor of Israel and the big plan to reshape the Middle East and to create chaos, then what exactly would America gain from continuing the war in Syria?
And another question to everybody here as well. Regarding the pipelines. If Russia and Turkey agree on Turkstream what role is Syria playing in the pipeline mess? If America is putting pressure in Turkey not to sign a deal with Russia, then this would make oil and gas export from Iran to Europe possible, but what about Qatar? Qatar and Iran share the same gas field and as far as I remember the planning of the pipelines throughout the Middle East was what triggered the war against Syria.
This is all so complicated and the more one reads the more confusing it can get.
Thanks to many he for fabulous comments!
Syria has been an Israeli project from the day one. Even the Jewish Washington Post admitted last year that almost every American Jewish organization is calling on Obama administration to invade Syria.
Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, 64, head of Israel military propaganda wing boasted during a recent military conference: “Syria has disappeared, Syria is dying. The funeral will be announced in due time. This Bashar al-Assad will be remembered in the history books as the one who lost Syria. Until now, he has lost 75% of Syria, in practice he controls 20% of Syria. His future, if I can predict it, is shrinking all the time. We may yet see him as president of ‘Alawistan’,” the Times of Israel quoted him saying on June 30, 2015.
Amos Gilad has every right to live in a self-denial like many other Israeli Jews – but may like to know Al-Sham (Syria) even existed when his ancestors were conspiring with the Roman occupiers of Palestine to kill Jesus on the Cross over 2000 years ago.
How reliable Gilad’s ‘prediction’ is – one has to know that for his role in the Jewish army’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Gilad sued the Zionist regime for “irreversible mental damages”. In February 2009, then prime minister Ehud Olmert suspended him as Israel’s ambassador to Egypt for slamming Zionist regime over negotiating a ceasefire with Islamic resistance Hamas ruling Gaza Strip.
Amos Gilad took part as one of the leading commanders of 30,000-strong Jewish army’s 34-day invasion of Lebanon with no air force and navy in Summer 2006 – but couldn’t save his country from a military humiliation at the hands of Hizbullah fighters. One wonders, how he expect to destroy Assad regime which is supported by Hizbullah, Iran and Russia.
The truth which the western media is trying to hide is that Bashar Assad is still very popular among Syrian military and Syria’s non-Muslim minorities. With the help of Lebanese Hizbullah fighters, Syrian army has recaptured most of areas it lost to the US-Israel supported ISIL murderers. The insurgency is so demoralized that now the US, Turkey and Israel have started bombing the Syrian army posts and civilians to help-out the anti-government terrorists.
http://rehmat1.com/2015/07/01/no-amos-gilad-syria-is-not-dying/
But the Russians might be doing more than helping Syria with diplomacy. A Suggestion The Russian Military Will Again Support SyriaWe must realize the serious consequences which arise from the US plan to attack Syrian Army units or anyone else if they oppose the “Division 30” troops.