Listening to Lavrov today I came to the conclusion that the regime in Kiev was indeed about to try to attack the eastern Ukraine. It’s not only Lavrov, the Russian Internet is on “red alert” and chock-full of rumors and speculation about an imminent attack. This begs a number of questions:
1) Why would the junta in Kiev so overtly renege on the Geneva agreement?
2) Why would it attack when the chances of success are very small?
3) Why would they attack know that Russia would almost certainly intervene?
4) Why is the US clearly behind that strategy?
I have a hypothesis which I would like to submit to your attention.
First, the junta in Kiev is reneging on the Geneva agreement simply because it cannot abide by its terms. Remember, the junta is composed of a few politicians handpicked by the US and a few Ukrainian oligarchs. They do have money, but no power. How could they possibly impose anything in the well-armed and determined freaks of the Right Sector?
Second, the eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what. So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:
a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.
Clearly, option ‘a’ is by far the worst. Option ‘b’ is so-so, but option ‘c’ is very nice. Think of it: this option will make it look like Russia invaded the Eastern Ukraine and that the people there had no say about it. It will also make the rest of the Ukraine rally around the flag. The economic disaster will be blamed on Russia and the Presidential election of May 25th can be canceled due to the Russian “threat”. Not only that, but a war – no matter how silly – is the *perfect* pretext to introduce martial law which can be used to crack down on the Right Sector or anybody expressing views the junta does not like. That is an old trick – trigger a war and people will rally around the regime in power. Create a panic, and people will forget the real issues.
As for the USA – it also knows that the Eastern Ukraine is gone. With Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gone – the Ukraine has exactly *zero* value to the Empire, to why not simply use it as a way to create a new Cold War, something which would be much more sexy that the Global War on Terror or the really old War on Drugs. After all, if Russia is forced to intervene militarily NATO will have to send reinforcements to “protect” countries like Poland or Latvia just in case Putin decides to invade all of the EU.
Bottom line – the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to “win” against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to “win” against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene. In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the “invading Russian hordes” than to lose it to the local civilian population.
So the purpose of the next attack will not be to win, but to lose. That the Ukrainian military can still do.
Two things can happen to foil this plan:
1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct “purely moral” choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.
Ideally, a combination of both.
From the Russian point of view things are rather simple: it is infinitely better for Russia to have the East break away without any Russian intervention. If the attacking force is crazy enough to use armor, artillery or airpower, the Russian could decide to strike from the air without actually sending in ground forces. They could also use electronic warfare capabilities to further create chaos inside the attacking force. Limited pinpoint attacks could also serve to demoralize the attacking force. What Russia has to avoid all costs to find itself forced to engage in offensive urban operations which are always dangerous and bloody. It is therefore absolutely essential the the locals take control of their own streets, villages and cities.
Lavrov today delivered a very direct warning: if things go out of hand in the eastern Ukraine Russia will intervene. Hopefully somebody in the West will finally realize that the Russians are never bluffing and that they really mean it. I am not very optimistic though – if Lavrov felt the need to make a full 30min interview in English in which he clearly compared the situation in the Ukraine today to the one in Ossetia in 08.08.08 it is probably because the Russians have intelligence indicating that an attack is imminent.
We shall know very soon.
The Saker
saker’s final point is a good one. I have been impressed how Lavrov has avoided unnecessary inflammatory language. He seemed out of character bringing up S. Ossetia. Maybe they have good information that the Kiev regime is planning something.
Your three choices facing Yats and company are reasonable. What I find hard to accept is that point c is going to be good for Obama and Kerry. Point a is the best face saving option for them. Though there is no question that there are powerful forces in the US that would love to see the Russian image further tarnished who would prefer option c.
The Russians have their “sources” in the Ukraine “Government” at all levels. The Russians know what the Banderists are about to unleash.
Could not agree more…
It may be obvious to you that Eastern Ukraine will soon belong to Russia, but I doubt that it is so obvious to the Kiev junta. I suspect their strategy will be to attack — or at least order such an attack — not “in order to lose” but with the expectation that they will lose, and then be able to call NATO for assistance as the last chance to preserve their fragile “democracy” against Putin’s Red Hordes. As you say, their position will be stronger for having tried to preserve Eastern Ukraine as their own whether or not NATO comes to their rescue. The US and NATO will in any case profit from being able to trumpet the “lawlessness” of Russia and by imposing sanctions — as well as by making secret tenders to Putin’s inner circle — hope to drive a wedge between Putin and his supporting oligarchs. In a worst case scenario, there will be war between NATO and Russia.
I think forcing Russia into a conflict was always their plan. The imposter government has done everything possible to provoke the Russian Ukrainians and Russia since they took power. They have done nothing to unify or include the south and east, which they could have easily done if they had wanted to keep the country together. You would think that a new coup government would at least pretend to include the entire population even if only to solidify their own power and prevent uprisings against them. But right from day one, this illegitimate government has turned against the Russian Ukrainians. I think dividing the country was always their plan. And like Lavrov said, then blame it on Russia, just like they do with everything else.
M.
Thank you again, Saker, for your clear analysis.
In the Anglosphere, two neologisms have caught fire in the last year among anti-Anglozionists, “kumbaya” and “ooga-booga”. For those of your readers who don’t understand the new jargon, let me explain.
“Kumbaya” was originally the name of a Christian hymn sung by American slaves of African origin. It was sung a great deal during the 1960s by American integrationists, black and white, because it is a simple but lovely song and showed the solidarity of blacks and whites together.
However, since the whites in America pretty much abandoned the integration movement when sexier movements appeared in the late 60s(feminism, gay pride, environmentalism, health food, yoga, etc., etc.) “kumbaya” has come to mean any hypocritical, false display of solidarity.
“Ooga-booga” is the generic name for whatever enemy du jour the government cooks up through its propaganda media.
Today the Anglozionist empire is cooking up a lot of kumbaya for the poor, poor threatened Ukranians.
And after the spectacular failures of The War on Drugs and The War on Terror(failures except for their spectacular success in controlling domestic populations), Russia makes a far, far better ooga-booga than the empire has had since the cold war ended and Russia was looted post-1991.
Wow,same as saker, you possess excellent insights and know just how te slice and dice things.
Makes perfect sense.
The US needs some military action now like never before. It’s whole economy is on the precipice of total and final collapse.
They are determined to us Russia as the way out of it.
One commentator thinks:
“The trouble with Washington’s Ukraine policy, is that it leaves Putin with few options. If he deploys troops to defend ethnic Russian’s in the East, then Obama will demand additional economic sanctions, a “no fly” zone, NATO deployment, and the cutting off of natural gas and oil supplies to Europe. On the other hand, if Putin does nothing, then the attacks against Russian-speaking people in Ukraine (like Sunday’s shootout at an Eastern checkpoint that left three people dead.) will intensify and the US will provide covert military and logistical support to neo-Nazi extremists in the Interior Ministry, just as they have with jihadi terrorists in Syria and Libya. That will hurtle Ukraine into a devastating civil war that will damage Russia’s economy and undermine its national security. Anyway you look at it, Russia loses.”
See – http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/23/putins-dilemma/
It all fits together very well with the Saker analysis and events of the past week (CIA and Biden visits).
Again the ordinary people will be slaughtered along the way.
For the sake of humanity let’s trust that Putin sees through this farce.
I think that if housewives like myself can see through the farce , then surely Mr Putin can see through the farce. :)
i absolutely agree with your assesment that a russian intervention is exactely what “the west” wants- it was the plan from the beginning, but they most likely planned to make crimea the main battleground. the eu has btw. gone completely silent for some days now, which might indicate that they are told to shut up by the US and NATO. this and an increase in propaganda seem to indicate that something is going on.
but i still thinkt that “direct” intervention, as in putting troops on the ground, is highly unlikely. putting boots on the ground is exactely what the US wants, and the EU already committed itself to “economic sanctions” if that would happen (even if not spelled out what this would mean in detail). i also stil think that russia does not want to incorporate more of ukraine, because its just to costly. a federal ukraine, which will wake up from its eu-delusions some time, might as well get a friendly regime again some time. if they are not able to blame russia for their misery, they will eventually blame europe soon enough, because the economy will only get worse.
russia still has a lot possibilities for an “asymetric” response left. there are still many possibilities on the economic front. if a cyber attack is possible, that would be another option.
as to respond militarily, there might also be asymetrical options. how about, f. ex., bombing the (CIA-infested) SBU-headquarters?
what about the ukraine military? might it be possible to get some units to make a counter-coup? like f. ex. the 25th(?) airborn brigade, that was disbanded recently by the regime, together with a few other units that are not “pro russian” but would tolerate a federalization? i have no idea how realistic that is, but it seems to me as the only sane exit strategy for the ukrainian people.
These events are being staged for the mass targeted audience — primarily in the ZATO-ZUSA. It’s clear that TPTB are driving towards war and significant bloodshed. And Obama doubled down with China today. So the sides are lining up as planned. The puppet-masters are not stupid. Mendacious, evil, deceitful, greedy, etc. But not stupid. They’ve been planning a take-down of all-non-Zionist interests in the US for many decades. Another war where white Christians kill one another is a victory for their team. But over-reach and underestimating external and internal blow-back from the inevitable (and increasingly anticipated) “false-flag-bags-of-tricks” may make successful outcomes more difficult to achieve. And they will be seen by more and more humanity as scum-of-the-earth.
God bless the people of Ukraine. Sorry that America is such a pitiful excuse of an Empire that we send morons like Vicky Noodles to do work which requires intelligence and integrity. It’s a hard time to be an American. For sure.
Thanks — as always — for your insights.
I think that it is possible that the whole Ukraine affair is just a side maneuvre and that the real issue is that Russia will do away with the $$ as a global reserve currency. The US has to do everything possible to avoid this (or go down)and is probably willing to make war as they did in Lybia (Kadafi’s golden dinar idea) and Iraq. (Sadam’s going for euros instead of $$)
What better place to start a war than on Russias door step.
The US has mercenaries and special forces already unofficially in operation in the Ukrain.
It might be better for Russia and the world to do something unofficially too than to openly invade the Eastern Ukrain.
This is a game of chess at which Putin is much better than Obama.
Received a quote in my mail yesterday supposedly from Putin :”Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board and then struts around as if it won the game.”
Time to think outside chess rules.
I agree with your take on the situation, Saker. I believe it will turn into another disaster for the US. Because of their psychopathic mindset, the Anglo/Zionists STILL don’t understand the Russians and will continue to not see the full extent of Russia’s options.
Their aim is to make it impossible for Europe to go with Russia but they’ll end up making it impossible for Europe to stay with the US/israel
Spot on.
Davidius
During the cold war you was always worried about a nuclear war. No it looks like we are closing up to one. And I can’t say that it bother me any more. I have give up the hope for a better world.
As I have said before USA is a county with too many big guns, and too many small brains.
Excellent analysis. I second it.
Crazy Ivan says…
I see your views is closer to mine or vice versa (never mind) the time for decisive moves wait behind doors.
So I would not repeat some of my words from previous comments to your previous posts but rewrite only a few.
From military point o view Russians know army is for defensive purposes (BTW, any attack can be regarded as pre-emptive defensive move), not as a tool of revenge when some of their citizens have been killed.
From this point of view I expect strong assault on Ukrainian territory 2-4 hours before Ukrainian units would start to move from their bases to their designated areas of operation.
There’s no sense running cities’ streets after Fascists and American thugs and eliminating them one by one.
That scenario is not going to happen, for sure.
But your analysis lacks one main point – what to do with ultra-nationalists and fascists forces?
For n-th times.
From my point of view the only sensible outcome of RF invasion should be getting rid of thugs and oligarchs, quick elections of oblasts’ deputies, new constitution plus referendum and anything which might won hearts and minds of those Ukrainians which want authentic changes to their country.
I said that before – leaving UPA/OUN nationalists alive will bring to the region only blood and tragedy. You cannot negotiating with them. Russians know that.
@EVERYBODY:
Several of you have asked me to comment on the article by Mike Whitney in Counterpunch entitled “Putin’s dilemma”. The article is okay, but it contains a HUGE mistake which basically voids the entire article. Whitney writes:
The trouble with Washington’s Ukraine policy, is that it leaves Putin with few options. If he deploys troops to defend ethnic Russian’s in the East, then Obama will demand additional economic sanctions, a “no fly” zone, NATO deployment, and the cutting off of natural gas and oil supplies to Europe.
That is nonsense. Whitney is the victim of the highly effective US propaganda about the invincibility of the US military and US weapons systems (most Americans are under the illusion that technology wins wars). He seems to forget that the NATO air campaign over poor little Serbia was an abject failure, and that the US did not have the guts to take on Syria, nevermind Iran – both of which are a joke compared to the Russian military. Hot air and slick propaganda are good to make folks feel powerful. They are useless once the bullets start flying and it did not help the US Serbia very much.
The notion of the US/NATO imposing a no-fly zone against the Russian air force is laughable, especially in the current state of the USAF. What NATO can, and will do, is deploy more ground troops in Poland and the Baltics. So far, I have heard that an additional 600 US servicemen are supposed to be moved to Poland. Yup. That’s right. 600. But even 10’000 for a country of the size of the Ukraine is a joke.
As for economic sanctions, I have already covered that ad nauseam as did the good folks are Zerohedge. So I wont’ repeat it all here.
A LOT of Americans, even well-intentioned one with their hearts in the right spot, even those who hate the Empire and want the US to be a “normal” country have been completely propagandized and they believe in the invincibility of the USA, the so-called “last superpower” or even “hyperpower”. That is all absolute baloney. Since the Korean war the performance of the US military has been consistently mediocre to poor, and it has been outright terrible in the recent years. As for NATO, as a fighting force, it is even worse than the US Army. The least bad part of the US military is probably the Navy, but that is not very useful in a war with Russia over the Ukraine. As for any USN ships in the Black Sea, they will be sunk in the first hours of any war, and the USN knows that (the admirals are far from stupid).
Bottom line – Putin’s dilemma is purely political. In military terms Russia can invade all of the Ukraine if it wants to (which it most definitely does *not*) and there is nothing, nothing at all, the US can do about it.
I realize that the notion of a weak and helpless USA is hard for some to swallow, but if you really take the time to consider it, I think that you will see that it is rather undeniable.
Kind regards,
The Saker
If they are going to attack the east to try and crush the rebellion, they will have to do it with something other than the regular Ukrainian army. They army will most certainly refuse to follow such orders. They have been doing so since the beginning and they are fairly contemptuous of this “government.” Maybe Kiev has managed to put together some special units of people willing to kill, maybe with some foreign mercenaries among them too, but will there be enough such people to put down the rebellion in the east? It’s doubtful, and if they start killing, the military may well stage some kind of counter-coup. It’s a mess out there.
The Art of suppressing discussion … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjhWqWKe8cU#t=97
Crazy Ivan says…
Quote – What NATO can, and will do, is deploy more ground troops in Poland and the Baltics. So far, I have heard that an additional 600 US servicemen are supposed to be moved to Poland. Yup. That’s right. 600. But even 10’000 for a country of the size of the Ukraine is a joke.
Not 600 but 150. In 4 parts (4 x 150) they will be training for several months. :)
Polish FM Mr. Sikorski wanted two fully armed heavy brigades – about 10 000 men. The US gave them (Polish politicians) in return kick in the ass.
http://www.tvp.info/14912406/amerykanscy-komandosi-juz-w-polsce
@saker 9: I don’t believe in the US’s invincibility. Unless it’s something like Grenada. This country doesn’t fight ‘wars’ to win but to enrich the Rockefellers of the country.
WizOz said:
Balaban,
You are right. All the actions of the “West” are predicated on the innate aggressivity of Russia.
This attitude stemmed, at least from the invention of the Will of Peter the Great.
A nice crisp summary:
“The forgery of the will of Peter the Great was due to the desire of Napoleon to frighten Europe and thus to give him excuses and pretexts for entering upon his Moscow campaign. It is possible that that some Urtext of the will was made up by anti-Russian Poles about 1790, that this got into the hands of the French government, and was afterwards touched up by Napoleon. The hypothesis is simple and likely: but the probable has not always happened; and this explanation does not sufficiently connect the canonical document with the statement of Podewils.
Whatever may have been the virtues or the faults of Peter the Great there is nothing in his history that would point to him as the author of the malignant Will. The fictitious character of the so-called testament of Peter the Great is so well established that it would be absurd to discuss the principles there laid down for the conquest of Europe and of Asia, or to investigate the reasons dictating such a policy”.
The same as the fake letters threatening the Jews. The eternal “anti-Semitism” of Russia!
WizOz
This is what’s happening behind the scenes and it is the reason the US is desperate for a large scale war:
“… we are seeing the greatest transfer of wealth (West to East) in all history. China is amassing a huge hoard of gold while I don’t know how much the US and the English speaking nations actually have. The western central banks’ policy of selling gold to knock down the price is a disaster (and China must love it). The US will lose its reserve currency advantage within a few years or probably less time. Our defense against a weak economy is always to print more money. In a matter of months, I see the dollar crashing.”
Per Richard Russell (economic and finanical markets analyst) 22 April 2014
The CIA Director and VP Biden have been to Ukraine in the past week to stir the pot as much as possible. The US needs Russia to enter militarily so it can intervene which will then form the basis for a much larger conflict.
It is no coincidence that Obama is in Asia this week agitating against China by offering “strategic support” to Japan (yes, the same country they dropped 2 x nuclear bombs on not that long ago apparently because the Japanese were so evil).
Keep an eye on the China/Japan situation – it is closely connected to events in Ukraine. Along with a war in the interim, the US needs to ensure the German/Russian/Chinese new silk road plans can never be put into place.
Saker is 100% correct as to where this is all headed in Ukraine.
The ONLY way out for the US economically is to enter a major conflict and “rally” the nation then break apart the new silk road alliance.
Expect also a major ‘false flag’ event in the US at some time soon if a military conflict can not otherwise be kicked off (which of course the gullible US public will believe was from a foreign enemy when it fact it will be directed wholly from within the secret government). That event will then be used as the new Pearl Harbour type reason for attacking another nation – read, China or Russia.
Dear Saker,
Your interpretation might be right, but I’m afraid that what they really want is nothing less than war. They keep provoking Russia and sooner or later, Russia will have no choice but to act to defend Russian speaking people. Then they’ll have their pretext for an attack. I know it’s totally crazy, but for whatever reasons, warmongers want war and sooner than later.
A Russian economist Mikhail Khazin, the president of Neokon economic advisory company, understands the desperate actions by the US in Ukraine:
“ The US doesn’t have that much time in order to prepare for a serious weakening of the US dollar on the global stage and, conversely, for a serious strengthening of regional currencies’ role. The maximum amount of time they can count on is 18 months. During this period they must prepare for a situation in which their main instrument of global control, i.e. the control of the circulation of the main global reserve and trade currency, will become seriously weakened,”
This is what it is really about.
Ordinary people again cannon fodder so the US can continue to dominate the world.
Absolutely disgraceful.
Here again we have the US interfering in the affairs of a country that it has no legitimate connection.
Think about this – if the US were really serious about the “freedoms”, democracy and ideology it pretends to advance then this fiasco in Ukraine would be over tomorrow.
The illegitimate government would be removed, elections immediately held (on a rnage of issues) and the people then free to get on with their lives.
Instead – US hegemony prevails and many lives will be lost for no reason other than so as the wealthy elite can maintain their warped need for global power.
When will the people (mainly those in the US) wake up to the fact they are played like a fiddle tune every time these sort of events arise.
I do not think Kiev or the US are playing to lose. That said, the American generals’ performance has been weak, vid. Ossetia and Pavel Felgenhauer’s ( no friend of Russia or its military) analysis thereof.
I do suspect that if they do lose the East, they will try to suck Russia into a guerilla war there (this is federalism is not an option for Ukraine right now).
If the Junta moves in with armor and aircraft, a few RPGs, MANPADS and mortars may be called for. Two can play at the guerilla game.
the illegalregime is doing what it is doign is all bec ause angloa mericans ask them to do -it is as simple.
by 2020 Rusia would have become as much a supoer pwoer as was in soviet time atleast in defence. so anglo saxon enemy-russia has onoly anglos aas main enemy-want to engulf russia in somany problems that it cannot reach athat stage-.
the easiet way for russia to win this war is to be assertive, not caring for anglos propaganda and basically nuke england the main actor agasint russia.
with england destryed or enautered there is no real perissiten enmy left for russia to deal with.
one thing more. the way russia let herself be looted by english agents and jews in 90s with her wealth stolen , her women raped , her honour trapped < i thought it was better to die figthing than bear that insult.
nukes are gurantor of that honour-use it or let enemy know that you wills eriously use it.
Frankly, I can’t imagine what suicidal Ukrainians would join such an idiot’s crusade against their own people – knowing damn well that there are a bunch T-90s ready to blow their heads off.
I think likely Russia would just have to feint and the Kiev junta would crawl away like the rats they are.
The junta should use the opportunity to kill Yarosh, it would be a good confidence building measure with Russia.
Given the topic of the post, the Comments of Churkin the other day carry a more menacing tone: ““Despite all their recurrent adventurism, they [the US] realize that peace is rather fragile and too many crises, too much unrest has been created in different parts of the world. I don’t think they’re interested in the emergence of a new serious crisis, with non-obvious consequences for them.”
At the time I thought he was referencing Syria, which the U.S. is menacing again. But now I’m thinking that it’s a direct warning to the U.S. that should something happen in Ukraine, the U.S. is going to be unhappily surprised again.
@Saker- “Bottom line – the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to “win” against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to “win” against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene. In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the “invading Russian hordes” than to lose it to the local civilian population.”
You’re so blinded by your desire to see Russia defeat the USA somewhere…anywhere…sometime, that you overestimate Russia’s strength and durability by a factor even the Kremlin dare not presume. The only way Russia will take eastern Ukraine is if the Kremlin can guarantee there’ll be no real fight. They want some pliable accomplices who will let Putin bluff his way in without too much Russian blood and treasure in exchange. Has it not occurred to you that the Ukrainians might hate Russia enough to violently resist occupation once Putin backs up his threats with action and moves to support his paid mafia in the south and east of Ukraine? There are already rumblings in Crimea as the confused citizens begin to wake up to the reality that Russia isn’t rich enough to quadruple their pensions like they naively believed, and that the ruble is worth even less than the hryvnia/ UAH. Putins blitz in Georgia in 2008 is about all the Russian military is capable of because unlike you, they dread the nightmarish vision of their conscript army crumbling in the face of 4th generation guerrilla warfare. The only sustained campaigns of note undertaken by the vaunted “green men”, besides scaring toothless old civilians into submission, were little Chechnya and Afghanistan. Both exposed the feet of Clay of Russia’s “mighty” military machine. It’s easy to intimidate weaker neighbors with 3day shock campaigns, but Russia’s military dreads the guerrilla. America is bleeding your economy even now, when all we’ve heard are threats and feints from Putin, plus a couple of unfortunate drunks killed here and there, just imagine the Russian military in a quagmire in Ukraine, with every neighbor with a score to settle funding a relentless terror war from all directions, and color revolution in Moscow – get the picture Saker? The Kremlin’s hesitation to advance into Ukraine despite the obvious baiting of the Americans is sufficient proof of the cold fear the Kremlin oligarchs feel despite their outward show of bravado and tough talk. So far that’s all there’s been, talk… Crimea was a theft engineered with the complicity of the pro Russian political class without any real resistance. You might be one of the few sycophants deluded enough to not see the yawning abyss awaiting Russia in Ukraine. I for one, can’t wait to see these tough guys get tested and proven- I was a grunt in Iraq, Afghanistan, and everywhere in between so statistics on paper mean little to me, I’ll consent to Russian regional supremacy when they survive a real bloodletting.
Totally makes sense.
I’m glad you got rid of the unfounded optimism of late in terms of the Geneva agreement.
Still, I hope we turn out to be wrong. And there is reason for hope: Yats’n’Turch seemed to be hesitant (signs of remnants of a metaphysical organ aka ‘conscience’ perhaps?), hence those American Empire top level people had to brought in as of late – first Brennan, now Biden. So Yats’n’Turch might flip-flop back to a “it’s hopeless” stance, and call the whole thing off.
Otoh, the Americans will have brought some carroty sticks with them for sure. Maybe they “stumbled” upon evidence implicating Yats’or’Turch in the Maidan sniper attacks? That would be a rather compelling stick if you aks me.
Honk
MILITARY & DEFENSE More: BroBible CIA Terrorism
11 Popular Songs The CIA Used To Torture Terror Suspects
Read more: http://www.brobible.com/life/article/11-songs-used-to-torture/#ixzz2zlPwQyUn
agine you are chained with your hands between your legs, crouching. You’re isolated in a small, dark room with earphones you can’t take off. Queen’s “We Are the Champions” has been playing on repeat for 30 hours now at full volume, and you’ve lost your ability to think. It could go on for months.
Music torture has been common practice for the CIA ever since it began its “enhanced interrogation program” in the early 2000s. The process is designed to “create fear, disorient … and prolong capture shock” in prisoners.
Hi Saker,
There is a fourth option d) Junta in Kiev will not let Eastern Ukraine leave and Russian military did not intervene.
Everyone expects “c)” option. If Russian intervenes, it will make Russia look bad in the eyes of the world. Russia and Eastern Ukraine will faces years of unrest with die-hard Kiev’s supporters. Drain Russian’s resources. Eastern Ukraine industries cannot function, supply industrials good to Russian. What good will it does for both Russia and Eastern Ukrainians?
It would be far simply for Russia remains a passive warrior, let Eastern Ukraine fight for their freedom. It will be bloody no doubt. If Eastern Ukraine able to fend for themselves without Russia help (not likely), good for them. Russia will come in later to help Eastern Ukraine. Otherwise, the Junta, US and EU will faces years of unrest with more half of its population’s Russian supporters. With sizable voters in Eastern Ukraine, it will be nightmare for the Oligarch in Kiew. Knowing they may never able to have peace and must offer semi-autonomy.
With EU’s IMF stringent austerity measures, more than likely another uprising in Eastern Ukraine, NO?
@ A.B. “bombing the (CIA-infested) SBU-headquarters? ” I sure wish someone would. I daydream about things like that….
@ Macon Richardson – thanks for giving me a good laugh with the kumbaya and ooga booga stuff. How very true and nicely articulated.
As for Putin’s dilemma – I agree that Whitney got it wrong. He’s often very good, but he fell off the perch on that one. I agree entirely with you, Saker- the invincibility of the US military is a myth. Unfortunately, the US government believes that myth. But power is so much more than the latest DARPA “shock and awe” technology- ultimately, it’s people. The American people are NOT going to put up a good fighting force for the Empire’s egotistical gains- most Americans won’t want to, and of those that might be willing, they won’t have the ability.
And, as for economic sanctions, I caught a short clip today of Medvedev saying that economic sanctions don’t hurt Russia. I didn’t think so either. It reminds me of the old Uncle Remus story about the rabbit begging “please, don’t throw me in the briar patch!” Economic sanctions really just allow Russia to freely engage in whatever off-dollar trade they want (thereby collapsing the dollar) without the awkwardness of looking like they provoked it. A collapse of the dollar is very close, and I believe it could go down very quickly. That would strip the gears off the Empire’s war machine in a hurry.
Just curious here- what do you think will happen to the Right Sector? It’s been a strange partnership in Kiev, a challenge for the propagandists to spin, and the Right Sector appears to be wearing out its usefulness to the oligarchs. Think they’ll be getting set up to take the blame for it all?
Anonymous said…
“I was a grunt in Iraq, Afghanistan, and everywhere in between so statistics on paper mean little to me,”
Been there done that. You’re not the only one here that has served in the Imperial forces.
Last I checked, Iraq & Afghanistan were wars that we lost.
Both countries are in worse shape now than before we invaded.
Our country is trillions of dollars more in debt thanks to Ole W & the Bamster.
And every freakin day at least 24 fellow Vets off themselves which in turn devastates their families, thus creating more victims.
Now you may not like the above listed statistics, but they ALL happen to be the Cold Hard FACTS.
“I was a grunt in Iraq”
So, what do you want, a banana?
Napoleon’s army, the White army, Hitler’s army, all had reason to fear Russian guerillas.
@anonymous:You’re so blinded by your desire to see Russia defeat the USA somewhere…anywhere…sometime
Why would I want that? You are projecting your own sick form of patriotism unto others.
I was a grunt
Believe me, it shows. Stick to grunt-level tasks and let others do the thinking, ok?
:-p
The Saker
Saker,
I’m so glad to see you take on this pernicious myth of US invincibility that as you state tends to poison the minds of even people who have no love for the empire.
This is a self-defeating tendency that assumes that the US ruling class is both omnipotent and omniscient. Thus, when the US makes a strategic blunder, which is what this incompetently managed Ukrainian putsch really is (a classical case of irrational overreach), people like Mike Whitney, who simply can’t believe that the US in this case holds a very weak hand, assume that the weakness is just a ploy. The truth is that despite the extraordinary technical capabilities at its disposal, the US elite is prone to miscalculation. The neocons are lousy strategic thinkers, partly because they live in a bubble of their own BS. Another reason for American strategic incompetence is the anti-intellectualism that pervades American culture, which deprives even the relatively well-educated elites of proper historical perspective. This is where the real threat to peace comes from. The problem here is not that the people running the empire have some super-duper complicated plan to lure Putin into a trap. Rather, the problem is that they are making things up as they go along. This is why these people are dangerous: they can barely think one step ahead and never two. To any sane person with a minimum of historical knowledge and some appreciation of the many invasions from the West that Russia has suffered throughout its history, Putin’s reaction to the putsch was completely logical and predictable and managed with great finesse and an avoidance of heavy-handedness. But the clowns who authored this latest imperial adventure somehow failed to foresee the Russian countermove. Now all they can do is jump up and down along with their shills in the press and scream “Not fair! Not fair!” and try and hit back at whatever is within reach. The danger is that their hurt egos will push them to do even crazier things whose consequences they can’t foresee or limit. These people’s stupidity goes hand in hand with their vanity, a dangerous combination. They made a stupid move and lost the chess match; now they’re throwing a tantrum and threatening to smash the chess board.
I’m afraid this is what we’re in for over the next several years. The American ruling class is mentally and morally degenerating. The 1% have been steadily losing touch with reality. They don’t know what they’re doing by pushing for a new Cold War. They think the new Cold War will end like the old one or with an even better outcome, the complete dismantling of Russia as an effective power. There is little chance of this happening. The danger is that fools like Obama, Rice, Power, Kerry and co. (and Hillary, once she becomes prez) feel compelled to prove they’re as macho as the Neanderthals on the right and are prone to draw red lines in the most inappropriate places (other people’s backyards). Putin and Lavrov have so far been adept at parrying ill-judged US provocations without putting the US in a humiliating position. But this is like trying to deal with a drunk in a bar who keeps trying to pick a fight. The danger as I see it is that US rhetoric is not leaving much room for the US to back out gracefully out of this completely unnecessary crisis.
“1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct “purely moral” choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.”
Hopefully, to #1 & 2, can be added #3, where Russian covert help is involved providing info and needed materials. And also doing things to make things difficult on the ground for the attackers.
I think it is critical to understand that Europe (west of Russia, that is) has lost its will to fight. It is perfectly happy to have the U.S. carry the burden of defending them, of course, keeping its defense costs low at the expense of the U.S. taxpayer. For better or worse, however you look at it, this Europe is now “peace loving,” from fatigue as a result of a century of brutal war, and because it has enough troubles on hand trying to keep the good life going with their welfare states going bust.
As for your fourth question, “Why is the US clearly behind that strategy?” I think it is always safe to say, “follow the money.” As you have pointed out, it is getting harder and harder for Washington to get public support for the bogus twins, the “war on terror” and the “war on drugs.” The military-industrial-financial-prison-educational-media complex needs a new enemy, and what better than a new Cold War with Russia and, later, China? Unlike Crimea, a majority of Americans can probably find those two nations on a map or globe, and residual fear of both has become part of the DNA of Americans.
The other side of the “follow the money” coin is Ukraine’s debt bubble. The last thing the U.S. wants to see is a sign saying “if you break it, you own it.” It knows that the tens of billions required will simply go to Russia and the corrupt oligarchs. Why not let Russia take over half of what’s left of Ukraine and be stuck with those bills? (Which is also a main reason, surely, why Putin does not want to invade Ukraine.) It is almost comical, except for the poor Ukrainians, seeing the US and Russia dancing the American polka together, “I don’t want her, you can have her, she’s too fat [in debt] for me.”
@Pasolini:I’m so glad to see you take on this pernicious myth of US invincibility that as you state tends to poison the minds of even people who have no love for the empire.
Well, as you can see, it triggers hysterics in folks like the self-confessed grunt. The reason for the intensity of their reaction is because the myth of US omnipotence is really a dogma, a founding myth, a key element of US self-identity. Think of it, a country which only fights abroad can hide any defeat as easily as it can make up some fictional victories, or blow out of proportion any tiny little success. When is the last time the US had a *meaningful* military victory? Frankly, I think that the US counter-offensive in Korea was the last time that the US fought hard and well in very tough conditions. But since?
But that is quite literally a “crime-thought” for most Americans, something which triggers an instant emetic reaction, the mental equivalent of a “kernel panic” in a computer.
Sure, there is a huge tradition of violence in the US, against Native Americans, African slaves, the Spanish and Latinos and the rest of the world just as there is a long tradition of internal violence against other Americans, but a violence alone is something which is only effective against the weak. When this violence is met by a determined resistance then it crumbles very fast.
Militarism and violence are as much part of the US culture as the flag or the national anthem, which is really paradoxical because the US culture has never been a warrior culture, but a business (banking-trading-industry) one. Hence all the glorious propaganda and mediocre scoresheet.
Cheers,
The Saker
@Sky:Just curious here- what do you think will happen to the Right Sector?
Are we assuming that the East breaks off and that rump Ukraine turns into a Banderastan? Well, in that case the solution for the US-backed regime will be the usual one: buy off all those who can be bought off and kill the rest, if needed by using foreign assets. What happened to Muzychko is a good sign of that approach. One the neo-Nazi freaks become useless to the Empire, they will become expandable too. It will take time and there will be problems and snafus along the way, but with enough US assistance the regime can do it. Right now Kiev is fighting on two fronts and the situation in the East is taking up most of its resources, but if the East breaks off, the junta in Kiev will have much more freedom of movement and resources to allocate to a crackdown on the freaks. Also, at that point they will be able to “prove” their impeccable anti-Nazi and philosemitic credentials to the Western world. Instead of looking like pathetic clueless losers, they will look like heroic knights fighting both Russian neo-Sovietism and Galician neo-Nazism. The corporate media will love them :-)
The big problem will be money. The Ukie economy is essentially dead, so a huge priority will have to be internal repression. At the worst, there might be a civil war just in the rump-Ukraine/Banderastan. A NATO intervention might help, but who in his right might would want to go to the Ukraine even on a “peacekeeping” mission?
All in all the result of the US policy towards the Ukraine is a clear clusterf**k. There is really no other way of putting it. It’s really sad.
The Saker
My assessment offers a further option and begins with the loss of the 25th Airborne Rgt.
Airborne units are typically well trained, elite, high value units. What they lack in heavy firepower they make up with esprit de corps. The fact that the 25th collapsed and refused to support the putschists is revealing of the state of the entire Ukraine military. The formal “Ukraine military” is a paper tiger and, even if it were totally loyal to the putschists, would have limited effect on any battlefield.
The Right Sector thugs have greater effect as they are able to terrorize the population much the same way a bike gang would be able to terrorize a region. But this form of aggression should be within the capacity of the Ukraine resistance to handle.
The most likely military outcome within Ukraine is low level civil conflict with Kerry yelling “Blame the Russians. The very bad Russians.” and Russia responding with facts and logic.
If Saker et al can decode the outcome of scenarios A, B, and C, I suspect Putin can also decode the same scenarios.
I therefore vote for scenario E. This has the following elements.
1) low level civil conflict within Eastern Ukraine with various atrocities alleged to have been committed by either side.
2) The US seeks to blame Russia for these events and paint a picture of a big brutish bear with designs on Freedom, Democracy, Virginity, Motherhood, Apple Pie, and Europe.
3) Putin will delay any military response. Instead he will seek to convene the EU powers and ask them to recognize the mess that embroils them, consider that this mess is the direct result of US intervention in EU affairs, that US $5 billion was spent in the creation of this mess, and that US foreign policy is in effect nothing more than FUCK THE EU. Putin will then ask them what options they suggest. He will also discuss the fact that he cannot tolerate thugs and banditos operating on his western frontier, that the NATO actions represent continual escalation and will force a response, that he cannot continue to supply energy to a government which fails to pay its bills, which siphons off energy being shipped to the EU and which openly engages in hostile and provocative acts. If Putin is unable to gain any traction in the EU I suspect he will take these issues to the UN.
4) The real lynch pin will be Europe. Europe is being forced into a recognition of this problem and the degree to which it was generated by the US and serves primarily US interests. Further the EU will be forced to acknowledge that Russia is being backed into a corner and, should there be even a minor miscalculation, it is the citizens of the EU that will fry. After the fry they will freeze in the cold and dark.
5) If 4 is not being actively considered in the capitals of Europe then I suspect it is being considered by the citizens of Europe most of whom have already suffered due to the economic collapse triggered by lax US banking regulations. What we see today is actually a continuation in another form of the collapse of 2008. The US has taken no steps to resolve that crisis but rather has attempted to sweep it under the carpet through money printing. This has made the US oligarchs very wealthy but has caused immense suffering elsewhere.
Issues 4 and 5 are key to any resolution of the Ukraine problem and will basically involve the EU states undertaking a revision of their relationship with the US. Exactly how this will play out is difficult to assess. At the worst case we see a dissolution of the EU with some states such as the UK maintaining strong relationship with the US, while another group of states cluster around Germany and entertain the benefits of economic ties to Russia and China ie the Silk Road.
Cheers!
And Saker – thanks for this most intelligent site.
@Anonymous: My assessment offers a further option and begins with the loss of the 25th Airborne Rgt. Airborne units are typically well trained, elite, high value units. What they lack in heavy firepower they make up with esprit de corps. The fact that the 25th collapsed and refused to support the putschists is revealing of the state of the entire Ukraine military.
Thanks for a very good analysis. Minor thing, was the disbanded 25th not a Brigade? (not that it matters). Another thing: if there is violence begins in earnest in the east, the Russian public opinion will put a *lot* of pressure on the Kremlin which, contrary to western corporate propaganda, is not run by a dictator and which will not be able to ignore such public outrage.
I would say that my admittedly subjective feeling is that there is a 50/50 chance of a Russian intervention at this point, which I intensely deplore.
Kind regards and thanks for the kind words of support!
Cheers,
The Saker
First, I do understand that commenters wish to be anonymous but this is getting ridiculous. Over half of the comments are “anonymous”. Pick a name (Hell, use a different name each time you comment) so that if I want to respond to your comment I don’t have to spell out “anonymous who was a grunt in Iraq and seems to be an idiot” or some other stupid situation.
I don’t know how this blogging comment works but if we have to register a name to post then it’s alright with me. If you want an email, no problem. If anyone doesn’t want to give an email then use Mask Me or some other option. It’s your call Saker, but that is my two cents.
As to Russia’s options versus the American/Ukrainian junta’s options. Saker, your right as far as I see it. A. B. also put forth some stuff I agree with.
Russian troops into Ukraine plays into the junta’s sense of persecution. They are looking for an excuse to say why they are going to turn everything into an even worse mess than Yanukovich left them with. A separate FUS (Federation of Ukrainian States) of the east and south is where it is best for Russia and for the Ukraine for that matter. This would be the best fig leaf for the Ukrainians who aren’t enamoured of the western nationalists but have reservations about joining the Russian Federation. Economically and financially there are some dangerous pluses and minuses for a FUS.
So for Russia, CONTAINMENT until this coalesces is the goal. There are a host of other asymmetrical options. For the junta, they seek to bring about a confrontation (which, I agree they know they will lose) but they, as well as the west are scrambling for saleable excuses for their screwup.
The Ukrainian army (such as it is) will have to make up its mind. They don’t seem to be eager to carry out the nutty orders they are getting from Kiev but at some point they (in whole or in part) are going to have to stomp on the initiators of the violence and by this I mean the Right Sector crazies. The local population has to decide this and no amount of astroturfing will succeed unless the grass roots are willing to live with the result. Yes, I know….. I’m probably hopelessly optimistic.
And for those who cast aspersions on the Russian military and guerrilla warfare, I think the word Chechnya says it all.
There is desperation for the US and the West because I believe that there is a tipping point being reached. A critical threshold of people, nations and more importantly wealth doesn’t believe them anymore. Elections in Europe, unemployment, financial market rigging, etc. are reaching unbearable levels.
It’s always complicated trying to make out the intentions of others. On the other hand, plans are being made, but due to the complexities of reality, plans this complex rarely seem to work out as intended.
Therefore, I think that it’s good trying to second guess or make predictions based on what we see, however it might be better to examine the more probable outcome of all this calamity and these behind the scenes’ disastrously ill conceived notions. Which is, I fear and I don’t think I’m alone, that a war will break out in great part due to the ineptitude of the American regime in managing any of its affairs, and that events have been steadily escalating in this direction for quite a while, most recently Syria.. As well as a failure in anyone knowing how to deal in any kind of rational manner with the ineptitude of the players vainly trying to shape reality in their own image.
If a war does break out, there’s a probability that it will be unlike any that any of us have ever seen, and that includes the clowns trying to control destiny for their own ends, regardless of hat those plans, because the most of us will never witness them in the light of day. something entirely organic and unexpected will fill the void.
If this video is true, I think you’re correct.
Donetsk Police Chief murderer by nazis (18+).
http://vimeo.com/92742893
Pasolini: Yes. But just like the grunt who still doesn’t understand that we lost in both Afghanistan and Iraq, I’ll bet it still hasn’t dawned on the great strategic thinkers who created this mess that they made any mistakes at all — it just didn’t turn out right, that’s all, but we’re exceptional, we’ll find a way. (Reflection is not our strong suit. Otoh, we’re pretty good at scapegoating.)
Monroedavid: Yes.
Saker: YES. You’ve made such incredibly good sense here, but the bottom line is, we’re bullies. And bullies, at base, are cowards, so we’re that too.
Anonymous 02:50: Are you Mr. Pragma? If not, please do understand that’s high praise! ;~)
Dear Saker, your analysis is very clear and strong.
Also brilliant is your comments (@EVERYBODY) about the Mike Whitney’s article “Putin’s dilemma”.
Could you do the same for the Paul Craig Roberts’ “Washington Drives The World To War” article? http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/04/14/washington-drives-world-war-paul-craig-roberts/
Specially the statement:
“In my opinion, Washington does not want the Ukraine matters settled in a diplomatic and reasonable way. It might be the case that Russia’s best move is immediately to occupy the Russian territories of Ukraine and re-absorb the territories into Russia from whence they came. This should be done before the US and its NATO puppets are prepared for war. It is more difficult for Washington to start a war when the objects of the war have already been lost. Russia will be demonized with endless propaganda from Washington whether or not Russia re-absorbs its traditional territories. If Russia allows these territories to be suppressed by Washington, the prestige and authority of the Russian government will collapse. Perhaps that is what Washington is counting on.”
Thank you.
@they dread the nightmarish vision of their conscript army crumbling in the face of 4th generation guerrilla warfare
I can’t believe that you consider Pravyi Sektor a “4th generation guerilla”.
@They made a stupid move and lost the chess match; now they’re throwing a tantrum and threatening to smash the chess board.
Have I heard somewhere a response to: “Americans play Monopoly, Russians play chess”, which goes like this: “Americans play poker (mostly with trumped cards) because real men don’t have time to waste with sissy’s games ; when their bluff is called off they pull the gun”? or is just a figment of my imagination?
WizOz
@Scan: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/04/14/washington-drives-world-war-paul-craig-roberts/
What can I say? I have to be honest here and disagree with the many people who think that Washington wants a war with Russia. I simply do not believe AT ALL that this is the case. The simple fact is that USA cannot win a war with Russia. How would the USA do that? If the war goes nuclear than the USA is basically destroyed. In a conventional war (which can always escalate into a nuclear one anyway), the US Army is not going to try to invade Russia, that is ridiculous. On the high seas that USN can definitely win, but what is the point?! As for the USAF, it ain’t going to try to bomb Russia, not only because of the numerous and advanced air defense systems (S-300/400, A-50, MiG-31, SU-35, a plethora of advanced radars and missiles, etc.) but because there would be simply no point. So it is all well to accuse the US leadership to want a war with Russia, but I never see a logical rationale for such a plan. And, sure, if the civilians are morons, that is most definitely not the case of the US officer corps which has plenty of very sharp folks who love their country and will not want to risk it all for no reason at all.
I will repeat this over and over again. There is no real military option for the US/NATO against Russia. Not against China either, would I add.
Good nite and cya tomorrow!
The Saker
Saker et al,
With regards to the US going to war in the Ukraine against, I agree with my fellow US Army Veteran Col. Douglas Macgregor:
“Unless the United States can send 150,000 US combat troops, at least 50,000 in the first 30 days, then, Jeffrey is simply courting disaster. Without such a core force, the Germans, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Slovaks and Hungarians cannot hope to assemble a similar number of forces. More important, to be credible, the U.S. force must be heavily armored and include substantial quantities of rocket artillery, air and missile defense units, as well as, logistical elements. Evidently, the Ambassador is unaware that no such U.S. ground force exists.
Thanks to the last 12 years of superb political and military leadership, what forces the United States once had were squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today’s wheeled Army constabulary forces along with Army and Marine light infantry are incapable of challenging Russian ground forces anywhere in Central or Eastern Europe without risking certain annihilation. As for alleged American conventional superiority, policing Arabs and Afghans with no armies, no air forces, no air defenses and no missile forces is not much evidence for the kind of military superiority the Russians respect.”
You can read more here:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/18/ground-troops-to-ukraine-really-mr-ambassador/
As the Russians are masters at chess, and we already know they have many powerful pieces on the board, I suspect they will send in a rook to apply pressure on some economic/oil jugular of the West.
Saker
Going bank to another point you raised some time ago; if Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, comes to rescue the Russians in East Ukraine, where does the Russian Army draw their line to stop on Ukrainian land?
Regards,
Many thanks, Saker!
This is exactly what I feel.
Here in Brasil, the myth of the American Hyperpower is still more largely promoted by the presstitutes, because we are in physical proximity with the “brother of the North” and our dominant classes are all submissive to them.
Cheers
Why isn’t Russia working more for things like general strikes in the SE of Ukraine? Do they really expect the US and Kiev to simply wait for the country to fall apart due to referendums?
For that matter, why the passivity? Waiting for the enemy to surround and strangle and throw all important folks in prison seems like a demoralizing way of getting what you want.
Paul
Saker said-
Militarism and violence are as much part of the US culture as the flag or the national anthem, which is really paradoxical because the US culture has never been a warrior culture, but a business (banking-trading-industry) one.
Well put and I think therein lies a significant clue to why this clusterfuck came about. The claim has surfaced often that Cargill was involved because they want to get their hands on some of that black dirt. The truth is they already own a sizeable chunk of it. As do several other agro-giants. They might have had it in for the elected government because it was looking to be unwilling to lift limits on how much grain could be exported. Probably other reasons as well. As some of the best land and climate is in the south-east, it seems reasonable to suppose that some of their holdings are there. It wouldn’t do for that area to slip away from Yats’ control, now would it? They also can’t afford to lose any more ports. Where big Ag is involved, you can be confident that big finance is also involved.
I doubt these biz interests would be terribly pleased to have the bomb-everything-back-to-the-stone-age US military come on the scene. I presume they will grudgingly pay Greystone mercs and Banderanians to try and scare the Russophones into accepting their crappy fate as non-chattel slaves to the system. In other words, take their self-inflicted bad situation and make it worse. It’s what we do, it’s who we are.
Here’s another tidbit for the “Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe” crowd. These days, most of the wheat grown in Ukraine is too low quality to be accepted by baking companies. The majority gets milled into livestock feed. One of the big AgBiz projects there. They are also gradually shifting wheat acreage to corn and soybeans. Banderastan is being colonized.
The Right Sector is furious. The revolution isn’t going as planned.
If the Government doesn’t order the military to kill Russians, the Right Sector will storm Parliament. This will force the military to step in and restore order. The military will negotiate with the Russians and they will not take the loan from the IMF.
The Americans are trying to stop this.
@ uh-huh, saker and Meezer and all the USA haters on here:
“Why would I want that? You are projecting your own sick form of patriotism unto others.
I was a grunt
Believe me, it shows. Stick to grunt-level tasks and let others do the thinking, ok?
:-p
The Saker
24 April, 2014 02:12″
So you’ve all been there, done that and are just too smart to be knuckle dragging American grunts right? That’s why I visit this site, to see how the “too intelligent to amount to much dreamers” congregate and delude themselves to soothe the pain of the reality they must confront each day. Life as I see it is a vicious, unforgiving struggle for survival. You can whine all you want about how unfair the rules are but in the end all that matters is getting yours. America is the highest manifestation of mankind in this struggle to evolve and survive in natures world, everyone else is just trying to get where we are now and I’d rather be defending our way of life than Russia’s or any one else’s because Americanism affords the very best for the highest sovereign men in the world today. My evidence is my own life and the fact that most of you haters on here live here and benefit from the privileges being an American affords- including your right to wish we are cut down to size by the rest of the pretenders vying for our spot as top of the heap on the world stage. I’m honest enough to accept the faults inherent in our system and intelligent enough to have deduced that these faults have always been part of America, there was never some better time in some ancient age when we were morally correct anymore than we are now, maybe there might be in the future, but I’m not betting on it. Of all the pseudo-intellectuals on here, not one of you is honest enough to admit that no country the world over would behave any less violently or corrupt than America were they in our shoes as top dog. Order from natures chaos requires a monopoly of force, which makes violence inevitable. You folks want America humiliated so who can replace us? The corrupt serfs in the Kremlin? The Chinese? Who? If you all believed half the fairytales you write on here you would be on the first plane to Russia and deposit your savings with Putin or the Chinese government.
About our losing wars, America runs NATO, which means nearly all of Europe, we control the Bab el MANDEB around the Horn of Africa and all the major choke points for commerce in the northern and Southern Hemispheres. And we’ve achieved all this in the modern age in the face of fierce competition. The most our distant second in competition can hope for in multi-polarity. A little more common sense from the keyboard generals on here and even you whiners can arrive at the conclusion that those wars were punitive and resource extraction campaigns- to which end they’ve succeeded in securing American hegemony. I don’t see those wars as losses by any stretch of the imagination besides PR, which is irrelevant when the smoke settles. As far as veteran suicides, we’re still the best cared for and most protected veterans the world over, Russia’s veterans die of vodka consumption and poverty, critique America when you match the luxuries our warriors enjoy.
I’m a proud American and I’m just here to expose your rhetoric as fantastic dreaming with no basis in reality, it’s comically false all this pontificating you folks do here because even the “saker”, lives in the USA, in relative luxury. You ran here from the USSR didn’t you? I’ll take you serious when you put your life where your mouth is and move to the superior country than America. Till then, you can thank the U.S marines for the luxuries and privileges you enjoy. Semper Fi.
@Meezer: good article by Col. Macgregor! I would just add one small thing to on of his points:Unless the United States can send 150,000 US combat troops, at least 50,000 in the first 30 days
Can you just imagine what the Russians would do during those 30 days?
150’000 US troops supported by central Europeans might be a good defensive force (not that there is any threat to central Europe!) but as an intervention force against a hypothetical Russian intervention in the Ukraine it is wholly inadequate. According to Wikipedia, these are the forces the Russian military currently has ONLY in is Western military district:
6th Army (Saint Petersburg)
138th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Kamenka)
25th Motorized Rifle Brigade (n. Vladimir Camp )
9th Guards Artillery Brigade (Luga)
268th Guards Artillery Brigade (Pushkin)
Engineering unit
5th Anti- aircraft Missile Brigade (Gorelovo)
95th Brigade control (Gorelovo)
26th Missile Brigade (Luga)
20th Guards Army (n. Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region)
4th Guards Tank Division (Naro-Fominsk)
2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division (Kalininets)
6th Tank Brigade
9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Nizhny Novgorod)
53rd Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade (Kursk)
9th Brigade management
288th Artillery unit
448th Missile Brigade (Kursk)
Airborne Forces:
45th Spetsnaz Regiment (Kubinka, Moscow)
76th Air Assault Division (Pskov)
98th Guards Airborne Division (Ivanovo)
106th Guards Airborne Division (Tula)
38th Airborne Signal Regiment (n. Bear Lake, Moscow region) .
Part of the Marine Corps and Coast Defense:
7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Kaliningrad)
79th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Gusev)
336th Marine Brigade (village Mechnikovo, Baltiysk)
25th Coastal Missile Brigade (Don)
152nd Guards Missile Brigade (Chernyakhovsk, Kaliningrad)
244th Guards Artillery Brigade (Kaliningrad)
61st Marine Brigade (n. Satellite, Murmansk region)
200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (n. Pechenga , Murmansk region)
Intelligence/Spetsnaz units and formations:
2nd Spetsnaz Brigade
16th Spetsnaz Brigade
Naval Forces
Baltic Fleet
Northern Fleet
Part of district subordination:
Operational Group of Russian Forces in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova (Tiraspol, Transnistria)
27th Separate Guards Motorised Brigade (Mosrentgen)
… to be continued
…continued
Аccording to the Russian version of Wikipedia, these are the equipment holdings of the Western military district: (Google machine translation)
Armed with these compounds and depots located 48 PU tactical and operational- tactical missiles ( 24-36 ” Tochka-U ” 12-24 “Iskander” ); over 700 tanks ( about 100 T-72 and T-90 , more than 500 T-80 ), approximately 900 BMP and BMD , 600 wheel (mostly – BTR-80 ) and more than 800 tracked ( MTLB and BTR-D ) BTR ; More than 600 self-propelled guns , and 700 towed guns , more than 100 mortars, more than 300 MLRS ( over 200 of them – the good old “Grad” , the rest – “Hurricane ” and ” Twister “); 200 LAW ; about 400 PU army air defense SAM ( S-300B , ” Beech “, ” Thor “, ” wasp “, ” Strela- 10 “) , 60 ZRPK “Tunguska” , a few ZSU-23- 4 “Shilka” . In addition, the territory is a base WEST reserve tank in Bui Kostroma region. She kept a few thousand armored vehicles ( tanks , infantry fighting vehicles , armored personnel carriers ) . Grouping ground defense in the territory WEST is the most powerful among all the new military districts – it accounts for 22 of the 38 anti-aircraft missile regiments belonging to the Russian Air Force and Air Defense . And adopt three or four of the 22 regiments in addition to the S-300PM already entered S-400 (two or three regiments in Moscow and one in the Kaliningrad region ) . To this we can add 5 regiments Moscow ABM system and the aforementioned four anti-aircraft missile brigade of the Army.
Strike aircraft WEST includes about ninety bombers , including all 24 of the newest Su-34 is available in the Russian Air Force (the rest – the Su- 24). Fighter aircraft – up to 200 fighters and interceptors (Su- 27, MiG – 29, MiG -31, this number includes deck Su-27K ( Su-33 ) on a single Russian aircraft carrier. There are about 80 attack helicopters Mi-24/35 at least 50 multi MI-8/17 and about the same maritime helicopters Ka-27/29/32 .
Again: there is NO US MILITARY OPTION IN THE UKRAINE.
Cheers,
The Saker
If regime troops or militia attach the East, Russia will not openly intervene. Direct intervention is a trap. It will provide moderate military (in terms of material), logistical, financial and political support. It will let the conflict drag on until the regime implodes.
Probably someone has already heard something about American “sellswords” hired by Greystone for “some” actions in the Ukraine. Both Greystone and American government denied the fact strongly. However, on April 14 Mr. John Brennan visited Kiev secretly to discuss “nobody-knows-what” with local junta. Russian media shared a leakage that the main purpose of his visit was to find out what had happened with about 20 Americans went missing near Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, Donabass region. Anyway the other news about the accident were very vague. Recently, some Russian officials mentioned that Russia had some hard evidence of direct American participation in the Ukrainian events. Greystone’s “wild geese” were mentioned as well. It was said that Russia would show these evidences when it saw fit. Who knows, probably these guys would be some sort of leash that keeps Americans from taking dynamic actions now and in the future.
On the other hand Right Sector group has moved its main headquarters from Kiev to Dnepropetrovsk to “closely monitor” the developments in the east, its leader said, announcing the formation of yet another paramilitary squadron in Ukraine.
@Semper Fi knucklehead: if only you could realize how your posts makes you look, LOL! But I have to thank you for making my case better than I ever could. I am only an observer, but you are the real thing, the one I can quote and point to in future articles: the terminally propagandized red-white-n-blue, united we stand, these colors don’t run, terrorist hunting permit toting, flag worshiping and absolutely terminally ignorant kind of zombie which truly and sincerely believes everything the 1%ers want him to. You feature just about the perfect mix of ignorance, arrogance, hubris, aggression and bigotry needed to be capable of such naive, almost child-like, gullibility. Malcolm X spoke of the House Negro vs the Field Negro – but you are the master’s faithful Rottweiler, guarding your master’s gate and ready to tear into shred anybody at your master’s command. The Soviet Union also had lots of these. Yet another uncanny parallel between the two empires.
Okay, this has been fun, but I won’t waste any more time on you. Go back to your certitudes and simple “Walmart reality” and enjoy it while it lasts. Try not to think of all those which you have murdered and maimed fighting for their freedom.
The Saker
Oh dear the ‘grunt’ is back.
Although the deranged commentary deserves no response, it is good to know that he spends time educating themself with some of the tremendous analysis he finds at this blog.
The ‘grunt’s’ commentary is also very welcome as it gives the rest of us an insight as to how many delusional and brainwashed public comprehend current events.
It is important Saker that the ‘grunt’ be allowed to express themself (within the bounds of the new comment policy) so as we can all attempt to understand how the indoctrination of the public has played out.
Whilst it is doubtful the ‘grunt’ has ever actually faced an angry man (yes, yes Iraq, Afghanistan blah blah – catering corps maybe), the self-aggrandisement is quite entertaining. The actual veterans that visit this blog have the intellectual resilience to think critically about their previously progandised world view being challenged.
Anyhow, welcome ‘grunt’ may you learn something useful from the Saker and the many enlightened commentators at this blog.
I fully agree with the Saker, in fact I have said much of this before. Russia can only legally incorporate Donbass if it has no troops there. Otherwise the West will always view it as an illegal annexation and occupation.
There is only one way for Russia out of this military dilemma: liberate Kiev and let Donbass and Novorossiya take care of themselves!
***
I have spent – or wasted – all night studying the alleged contents of Irma Krat’s flash drive and the snuff video there. Was it her hand that also showed up on the B camera footage? If this is real, then Ilsa, the “She Wolf of the SS” has met her match!
I often have fight to contain myself after reading the first few sentences of your latest post. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate the atmosphere of thoughtful analysis and discussion you provide, Saker.
1) Why would the junta in Kiev so overtly renege on the Geneva agreement?
Because it had no intention of keeping to the agreement from the begining. These are agents of a foreign entity which was bleeding profusely and needed to buy time.
2) Why would it attack when the chances of success are very small?
3) Why would they attack know that Russia would almost certainly intervene?
4) Why is the US clearly behind that strategy?
The junta and its backers can only succeed by drawing Russia into a direct military intervention. This is their only objective. Remember who you are dealing with and how they operate. Anglo-Zionist elites have not conceded anything because their objective is to start a war that can be semi-plausibly blamed on the Russians. This is a desperate gambit by ruthless crimminals and psychopaths who know that a much bigger collapse than 2008 is guaranteed. The US petrodollar bubble will burst and the American people already know too much. The media will not be able to contain public fury this time around so it must be redirected. The necons desperately need an external enemy and a ‘hot’ war to rescue their fortunes.
I think events on the ground have been overtaken by events at Rothschilds HQ.
The only thing that can prevent this from taking place is to bring everything into the light of day — which this blog does so commendably — and make sure that this time, all of the gangsters do not pass Go, do not collect 200 trillion dollars (literaly), and go directly to a Supermax jail.
Russia could establish an international criminal court to punish war crimes in the Ukraine. It could make it clear to the junta and their “police” and “army” that they will be held personally responsible for their actions. Snatch squads could be established to bring Ukrainian war criminals to this court. Judges for this court should come from several countries, I suggest China, Syria and Cuba judges would ensure justice is done.
To Petri Krohn:
The beheading is probably fake. Is there any credible source? This video has been in the internet for a week now. When you cut a throat, you will end up washing the place with blood.
After some initial gloom following Saker’s excellent analysis, I realized one key fact about this whole latest ‘counterterror operation’ post Biden after the ‘counter-terrorist operation’ announced after CIA director John Brennan came to Kiev fell on its arse with the 25th Airborne handing over six armored fighting vehicles to the pro-Russia rebels. There isn’t anyone in the Ukrainian Army O-6 or above who wasn’t in the Soviet Army. That means Moscow still has their names, which means with some creative legwork and or hacking of MTS Moscow’s NSA equivalent can probably find all their personal mobile numbers. Which means GRU can start calling Ukrainian commanders and warning them if any harm should come to civilians in the assaults on these buildings in Lugansk, Donetsk, and Slaviansk the Ukrainian colonels can be personally held responsible no matter where in Ukraine they live. Or they can be honorable men, refuse to obey the criminal orders (since appealing to a soldier’s sense of honor works better than intimidation) and refuse the orders. Let the Right Sector fools fight and lose badly, so the stupid politicians in Kiev will realize there is no alternative to negotations if the territorial integrity of Ukraine is to be preserved.
We’ve seen Russia a step ahead since the Maidan toppled Yanukovich, and I wouldn’t expect that streak to start now. Invading is dumb, it’s what Brzezinski and others clearly are praying for to their god Lucifer. Providing more arms and secure comms to the rebels, while continuing pyschological warfare is going to work much better for Moscow.
Saker’s analysis is important for one simple reason. There are those among the U.S. power elite and their minions in (s)elected office who are quite simply crazy. It is reasonable to assume that these weak minds are hatching something like Saker’s option c). Given the outright lies that preceded Libya and are ongoing in Syria and Ukraine, this assumption is evidence based.
However, I see a variation of @There is a forth option’s … “d) Junta in Kiev will not let Eastern Ukraine leave and Russian military did not intervene.” My variation of the proposed forth option is:
d) Kiev government is unable to contain ongoing resistance in the East. The U.S. won’t intervene. Russian forces stand pat as Putin watches the calamity unfold. Russia waits for the right moment to act and does so without seeming the aggressor.
Putin took what he needed immediately, Crimea. Now, he can afford to wait and allow events to unfold in Ukraine with a near certainty of failure for both the Obama administration and the coup government in Ukraine. It requires a commitment to tactics that further the larger strategy on Putin’s part but it appears that he has the patience and nerve to carry it off.
@ If they are going to attack said, “If they are going to attack the east to try and crush the rebellion, they will have to do it with something other than the regular Ukrainian army.” I’m assuming that is true and that, in effect, the Kiev coup folks won’t be able to put down anything much in the East. They’ll try. Unfortunately for them, they continue to unite the east against any political or military efforts. To wit, the reduction of miner pay in the Lugansk region, which has 2,000 miners on strike. Why? The garnished wages are needed to pay for the damages to the Maidan.
Obama has already said that the U.S. won’t commit troops to fight in the Ukraine.
So, why shouldn’t Putin and Russia just wait it out. The proximity of Russian forces to the Ukraine border makes a statement. The forces are most effective if not used directly. The force enhances the boldness of resistance to the coup government. With no U.S. troops and certainly no bombing acceptable plus the resistance within Ukraine to the coup government, it is just a matter of time before the Ukraine Army takes it’s own actions against the coup government or that government submits to the realities of a federation.
——————–
N.B. Keep in mind that the U.S. military has some true patriots at high levels. In February 2007, Bush was pushing for an attack on Iran blaming Iran’s Quds force for providing Iraqis with weapons to fight the U.S. Head of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Peter Pace, openly defied Bush on multiple occasions, at that time saying that there was no evidence for such a claim, hence no justification for war. This was stunning. The corporate media missed the story but Bush didn’t. He either had to fire Pace or relent. In 2008, Admiral William Fallon openly defied Bush on the wisdom of attacking Iran. Before the proposed Syria reprisal, Gen Martin Dempsey essentially tricked Obama into going to Congress for authorization, which broke the momentum of madness and assured that there would be no attack (Congress would have turned it down).
The military may be done with Obama, Kerry and the neocons. They have a lot of information that could finish off Obama and the congressional crazies. Stranger things have happened.
Someone else posted this 90 second clip (Classic Putin). It’s worth watching again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flC—s2moA
Think of what it took to rise from the position of a KGB clerk in Berlin to the one who spoke in this video. How patiently did he wait to spring his trap on the oligarchs.
Putin is again confronted by an overconfident opponent. He will follow his usual pattern and remain patient. His enemies believe the same and have calculated that this gives them the intiative to act in east Ukraine. They believe that if Putin invades he will loose in the court of world public opinion. If he stands back they believe he will look weak.
But Anglo-Zionist elites are underestimating their own loss of power. They have already lost the battle for the hearts and minds of thinking people. An enormous shift of consciousness is underway — accelerating. Every move they make can only weaken them.
America has prosecuted wars successfully only by controlling worldwide public opinion. That power is in the midst of total collapse. Their media is in a holding pattern, frozen on a fake missing plane story because they are reluctant to continue ‘educating’ the public with their constant lies. They are keeping their propaganda powder dry, lulling everyone into a false sense of security while preparing to wallop public consciousness with WW3.
Putin won’t fall for it. He will stand back and let them fall on their faces.
Another strong possibility is that there is dissention within the ranks of Anglo-Zionist elite.
The recent assassinations of bankers might be a sign that someone is trying to crush the source of a possible banker coup.
It is not difficult to imagine the possibility of a secret coup to unseat the neocons. Another scenario might occurr if the military refuses to obey orders for offensive actions against Russia. It might take just one senior person to disobey an order for an avalanche of refusals to ensue.
An interesting article about alleged Putin’s bribery:
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/04/russia-report-putin-.html#more
“Out on the sidewalk, I said to my colleague, “Volodya, this is the first time we have ever dealt with a Soviet bureaucrat who didn’t ask us for a trip to the US or something valuable!” I remember looking at his business card in the sunlight––it read Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.”
@saker and the “pseudo-intellectual” who wrote:
Whilst it is doubtful the ‘grunt’ has ever actually faced an angry man (yes, yes Iraq, Afghanistan blah blah – catering corps maybe), the self-aggrandisement is quite entertaining. The actual veterans that visit this blog have the intellectual resilience to think critically about their previously progandised world view being challenged.
I’m glad you resorted first to name calling and avoided answering why you live freely in a country you so despise, instead of your beloved Russia. If your audience is as intelligent as they pretend, they will notice that for all the derogatory adjectives you ascribe to me, I have the enough faith in my convictions to defend them without shame, and I live by my principles. I believe in America, therefore I live, breathe and kill for the American way of life, and all who threaten it. Saker believes in Russia? Therefore he lives, hates and undermine America?? You see Saker, lesson 1, you only deserve what you’re willing to defend at all costs. I’m an American and armed to the teeth, because I deserve nothing I’m unwilling to defend. What’s your creed?
As to the followers on here who just absorb saker’s information without any real critical thinking, open your eyes, see the world for what it really is, not what you wish it to be, travel overseas; go anywhere else and experience what privilege being an American affords you. While you’re at it, investigate and feel how powerless the underprivileged around the world are in juxtaposition to their own predatory ruling classes. Before you blindly accept Saker’s thesis that America is evil because he can point to our flaws, investigate for yourself, see how far you’d get in Russia, or china, or anywhere else were you not born to their upper classes. Putin sits on billions while millions starve in Russia. When he righteously gives up his ill gotten riches for the betterment of the impoverished masses in his own fiefdom of Russia, I will concede that America has a monopoly on theft and murder.
Finally, the genius who suggested I never met any real enemies in combat, just exposed the closed minded mentality of the average “self righteous do-Gooder” on this site. “I must’ve never seen any real combat, otherwise I would be remorseful for all the crimes we’ve committed over there, because we all know only the ignorant killers or the cooks in the military love the red, white, and blue right?
Wrong, I’ve been to the slaughterhouse and bear the wounds to prove it. I speak with confidence because the professors rarely go where it counts. I shot them and they shot me in return, and I respected them because they stood for their convictions. You see, I’ve been places you dread to tread, and I know I can out think you because you operate under the premise that to be intellectually superior, is to disarm. As bad as my mindset is folks, at least it’s withstood the test of time and reality, which is more than your wishful thinking can boast.
Mr. Zhirinovsky, LDPR leader, recently made a call to Mr. Turchinov, acting President of Ukraine, and warned him that if something wrong happened, he would be court-martialed not in Moscow or St. Pete but in Rostov. Of course, Mr. Zhirinovsky may be considered as a clown, but.. As Russian saying says “There is a bit of joke in a joke”
Allowing that Turchinov actually has adequate forces at his disposal to even attempt to dislodge the resistance Russia may still have soft power options to employ which might force Kiev and the EU to their senses. If thing begin to turn bloody in the east the threat to stop the flow of gas to Europe or deny the US exit of men and materiel from Afghanistan.
Most European countries don’t really have a stake in this ridiculous game but are at risk of losing much if the scheme continues to go badly.
Is it altogether out of the question for Russia to demand negotiations with Europe without Kerry’s obnoxious presense? Before this is over I want to hear a Euro diplomat say “F*ck the US”
Here are some telling quotes I found in the National Post. Note the odd use of the word “inkblot”… who are really the counter-insurgents here?
“Security forces are in a state of disorganization and demoralization,” said Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. “Today, most of them don’t want to fight for anyone because they don’t know who is going to win tomorrow and how all of this will end.”
The insurgents, whom Kyiv and the West claim have Russian backing and direction, have occupied buildings in at least 10 eastern cities. Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says the strategy appears to be “spreading across the map like ink blots.”
“They are a long ways away from merging into a large area, but this strategy is proving quite effective at challenging the power and authority of the Kyiv government, undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and spreading the insurgency over a vast region that otherwise the Russian military would struggle to occupy and control,” he wrote in an analysis.
In Fesenko’s view, it’s impossible for Ukraine to restore control over the insurgent region by force.
“Now the task is to block the spread of the separatist virus,” he said.