For anybody wanting peace, it is important to understand the logic of those who want war. What I propose to do today is to list all the reasons why the US is waging war not only on Russia, but also on Europe. This time again I will use a bulletpoint list (in no special order)
- The Empire and Russia have been at war for years now, at least since 2013; until now, this war was 80% informational, about 15% economic and only about 5% kinetic. Yet from its initiation, it was an existential war for both sides and it still is. At the end of it all, only one party will remain standing, the other one will have collapsed and profoundly changed. The above ratios are now about to change.
- The “Biden” administration is a who’s who of the worst Russia haters on the US political scene, check out this excellent article by Andrei Martyanov which explains that. You might also enjoy an article I wrote in distant 2008 entitled “How a medieval concept of ethnicity makes NATO commit yet another a dangerous blunder“.
- Needless to say, the Woke and LGBTQ+ freaks (which are all over the “Biden” admin) all hate Russia for being (in their very mistaken opinion) both “White”, “Christian” and “Conservative” (only the latter is mostly true).
- So far, all the efforts of Obama, Trump and Biden have yielded exactly *zero* results. Or, better, it did produce results, but not the ones it was supposed to achieve: Russia increased her sovereignty and economic independence, the Russian people rallied around Putin, and the Russian political scene became even more anti-western than before. The US plan against Russia failed, true, but the Russian people (and politicians) all understood that the attempt was to destroy Russia as a country, a nation and a civilization.
- After decades of incompetent and corrupt “leadership” by all administrations, the US is in terrible shape by pretty much any relevant metric. You could say that the “imperial pie” which the US and the EU share has shrunk that, in turn, means that the US has to seize a bigger chunk of it. Hence the US opposition to NS2 which does not threaten the 3B+PU nations, but threatens to make the EU more competitive (cheaper energy) than the US (more expensive energy). Hence, NS2 must be stopped at all costs (“Biden” just appointed a “special envoy” to kill NS2: Amos Hochstein).
- Up until now, the EU (mostly Germany) were able to resist the US pressure, but with a large scale shooting war in the Ukraine, NS2 will be instantly cancelled, this will be a political triumph for the US Neocons.
- The Nazi Banderastan created by the US Dems (shame on you if you ever voted for Obama or “Biden”!) has become a black hole by any relevant metric and should a war break out, this will affect the EU far more than the USA, hence this is yet another chance for Uncle Shmuel to grab a bigger piece of the “western imperial pie”.
- Next, even if the Russian forces stay behind the current line of contact, any overt Russian intervention in the Ukraine will result in an immediate war hysteria in the West, securing the total domination of the US (via NATO) of the entire European continent.
- Also, if the Ukronazi Banderastan is ever allowed to join NATO (in whatever form), then NATO will have to deal with the largely anti-NATO population of the eastern Ukraine. It is therefore objectively in the interests of the USA and NATO to simply get rid of the Donbass and incorporate in NATO only the pro-Nazi parts of the Ukraine while blaming “break-up” and “invasion” on Russia. The only part of the Ukraine which the US/NATO really wanted was, of course, Crimea (an ancient Anglo fantasy!). Putin made sure this will never happen and now this pipe dream will never become reality.
- The political scene in Europe is undergoing a deep crisis: some countries risk falling apart (UK, Spain), all of them are hit hard by the pandemic, riots are taking place everywhere (even in “peaceful” Switzerland! in St Gallen cops shot rubber bullets at protesters) which, frankly, threatens the long term future of the EU (which itself is an instrument of US domination of Europe). Triggering a war will completely change this landscape just like the 9/11 false flag changed the political landscape in the USA.
- And then there is NATO itself, a fantastically ineffective organization in military terms, but an extremely effective one politically. Since 1991, this organization had lost any purpose, a new war in the Ukraine will give it a (entirely fake) purpose for decades to come, thereby keeping Europe a US colony (which, of course, the “new Europeans” want, but of the “old Europeans” – no so much).
- The fact that NS2 is something like 95% completed is a slap in the face of Uncle Shmuel and the “Biden” administration will want to show these pesky Europeans “who is boss”. Since triggering a war will immediately stop NS2, it will punish the Europeans not only by denying them cheap energy, but also by the billions of dollars they already wasted on this project, and the more billions they will have to pay Russia in the future.
- The Ukraine cannot enter NATO, at least officially, until all its border issues are resolved. That is the official propaganda line. But what if Russia intervenes in the Donbass, then I would not put it past the Poles to move a number of battalions to the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions and that will de facto place the western Ukraine under Polish control and, thereby under NATO control and thereby US control. And no need for any votes from referendums – it will all happen while the world will watch in horror the war in the Donbass.
I could go on, but I think the point is clear: for the “Biden” administration, the upcoming war will be a dream come true, a way of killing many birds with one stone and, most importantly, a way to really hurt Russia (that will be true in spite of the fact that Russia will easily prevail militarily against any imaginable combination of forces in the eastern Ukraine.
Of course, all of the above is predicated on the deeply mistaken belief by US politicians that Russia is weak and the US invulnerable. Remember, while US politicians are long on chutzpah and narcissistic and messianic self-worship, they ain’t too knowledgeable about history (or anything pertaining to Zone B).
The bottom line is this: Uncle Shmuel is preparing a continental 9/11 PSYOP operation. Even worse is that I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it.
Do you?
Kind regards
The Saker
1. To Maintain Hegemony
2. To hold the EU as a market for expensively produced goods and services from US.
3. To Prevent the BRI from reaching and exploiting the Western European market.
4. To generate the need for NATO to buy more weapons from the US.
5. To contain Russia.
6. To promote the generate ideology and dogma of the Liberal Cult.
All of the above are why the US is waging hybrid war on Europe.
The irony is the only salvation for EU is with Russia.
But their Russophobia prevents them from getting Russia to save them.
Larchmonter445
Everything you wrote is correct. However, I would like to add the following:
The US dollar is printed backed by nothing, while the US has a gigantic foreign debt and an even greater domestic one. When it comes to the domestic debt, not even US professors are sure how large it is. You cannot keep postponing these debts permanently, ie. you cannot kick the can down the road indefinitely. As the late political economist Lyndon LaRouche stated, the only thing which can save the US dollar is the breakup of Russia and the plunder of Siberia and the Caspian region.
When it comes to the EU, it is the creation of Anglo-American bankers, the intent being to curtail the sovereign status of European states, especially France and Germany. However, nobody likes being an imperial stooge. Germany has shown “insubordination” with the Nord Stream – 2 gas pipeline. And yes, Russian gas will contribute to make German products plentiful and cheaper. The US therefore wants a war in the Donbass, one reason being the cancellation of the NS2 project. However, will NS2 really be cancelled ? If it is, then this cancellation will, almost certainly, be temporary. How will German industry react ? Accept US imperial overlordship ? I think not. German industrialists showed “insubordination” in 2014, when 500 of them went to Russia to negotiate trade deals, opening subsidiaries.
“The bottom line is this: Uncle Shmuel is preparing a continental 9/11 PSYOP operation. Even worse is that I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it”.
Yes, nobody can prevent Washington from driving Ukraine into war against the Donbass. That’s obvious. However, what about the consequences of such an action, especially in Europe ? As I have written before, Europe has seen two world wars on it’s soil and there is no mood for World War Three, nor for anything lesser involving the whole continent. Should war break out in the Donbass, the EU as such will, of course, condemn Russia. However, how will individual countries react ? Accept billions of euros in lost trade with Russia ? By the second half of 2016, EU countries lost 100 billion euros in trade, bitterly resented. Just to point out once more that Russia is in Europe, while the US is on the other side of the Atlantic. Analysts are expecting a rift between European and US elites. This means that the EU and NATO would see their days numbered.
You can print for quite a while b/c there is really no mechanism to prevent it, it shows up as inequality quietly swept under the rug.
As someone once said, its our currency, but its your problem.
It becomes our problem when too many hedge funds fail because industry can’t get enough oil to produce.
Unfortunately the hedge funds don’t fail due to the printed money.
John Connolly, Secretary to the Treasury 1971
It fails once there’s no more use for it , demand drops them you ask yourself … ” whose going to accept a currency that’s not no longer essential ?
The long-term problem for U.S. survival is keeping $US in demand . Too many countries are turning their back on it and trading in domestic currencies . China , Russia, Iran are already doing this … notice a trend here ?
Not so. EEC was created to embed German Rearmament 1956 within French parameters of control of Germany.
USA needed a German Army and France objected. To push it through USA forced Germany to accept Turkish surplus males as “guest workers” to persuade Ankara to accept Germany in NATO – faced with huge male birth rate Turkey needed to export manpower.
Also, France had been buying votes of small farmers with subsidies but could no longer afford the burden so needed Germany to fund it……and later UK……..which is why biggest budget position in EU is Agriculture not Defence.
It has become – through US scheming – an Economic Subcommittee of NATO which now overlays the whole Continent and allows US to “occupy” the whole Continent not just Germany
The russophobia is not accidental. It has been manufactured as a tool for war. Russia is not in a position to change that, now.
If Russia wants to exert real influence, it should work directly with elites and the population. Sponsor affiliate organizations etc. and connect to relevant elites – probe, if there are shared power interests. The average Joe is also irrelevant, only as meat in mass ops somewhat significant. The nation once called Germany is spiritually and culturally dead. Approach them like a bazaar. Buy, sell and conspire. This is a more mid to long term project.
Right now, Russia is more or less out of options. If it takes out the Ukrainian leadership, it will only postpone the war, because the politically active Ukrainian population (except the East) has been reformatted into pro US/EU mess. Other pawns will be found swiftly. A moonshot op to blackmail or any other covert op to “capture” key players (with anti-government groups) in the chain of command could do the job, but this fantastical option needs a secret service (and assets) the Russians probably don’t have. (Maybe a credible fear to be physically annihilated would stop clowns like Ze, but all of this would play into the russophobia narrative.)
As I see it, this is a train wreck about to happen.
It is those ELITES that are the Russophobes.
Ordinary people are not. Witness Britons visiting World Cup in Russia – very positive.
The Elites in the West are Bankers – just look how Cameron in UK was selling access to a sleaze ball financier Greensill and just how they flip for easy money. Cameron destroyed Libya to help Sarkozy cover up corruption. Blair had persuaded Ghadaffi to surrender WMD in return The West would ensure his succession and prevent Al-Qaeda from seizing power. – Cameron reversed policy.
Cameron is Pure City – family founded Panmure Gordon stockbrokers; his great grandfather made a fortune as a grain trader in Chicago. He is descended from King William IV. His ancestors were German-Jewish bankers.
And both, parts of the US – which is defacto split – (the non-nationalist part) and most of Europe will fuze into the fascist super-state as envisioned by Schwab, the Green-Reseter and all the other deranged parts of it – the BIG War will come later – a new ‘iron’ curt will be erected, there is no other way for the empire than self isolate and mutate into a militarized killing machine with trans-human parts added to it, heating up for War, nothing else is left, short of surrendering to the demands of the world with ALL the consequences which must follow – all very, very unpleasant for those at the helm in the empire.
Of course before that the split up of the US will become the most pressing issue very soon and it’s outcome will in fact decide whether the above will be possible at all !!!!!!! Let’s pray they fail ! As I said earlier the fate of the empire will be decided within the US !
If anybody is wanting peace, it is a spiritual war of our time now, bombs or not, and peace is within, found in the heart. but people want war, they cannot find peace and crave war because of this utter frustration. The seeming inevitability of war has galvanized lethargy into action, but peace will not come from war. Not out there, here. Tragic.
Any news on the upcoming speech from Mr Putin?
Last and only thing I’ve heard was april 21. and «a big news speech»
Perhaps Ze’s goal is to rid Ukraine of either the anti-Nato Russians from their territory (which would please both Nato and Banderistas) or to rid Ukraine of a part of their territory where anti-Nato Russians live (which would please Nato too, but not the Banderistas).
Consequences of a partition and occupation of Western Ukraine by Nato will be that Banderistas will feel betrayed and perhaps will take revenge against their government and Nato/EU?!
Russia will not allow NATO to enter Ukraine, they will rather take all of Ukraine and go to full war, because if Ukraine falls, Belarus will follow absolutly certain followed by Kaliningrad(Königsberg), just one step after the other. Thus there will be full showdown day if NATO enters Ukraine. I doubt Uncle Joe has that in sight, because his handlers wish to live somewhat longer in their rather luxurious accomodations.
V.V. Putin is also very calm and confident he will hold the Senate-Speech 21.4.21 undisturbed, which indicates it’s late in the game and he controls the strategic commanding heights by now.
vladimir should invade and take back Ukraine. get rid of the ukronazis and leave the NS2 as it will be for sure cancelled. but it could only be temporary. When Ukraine is back in Russia’s arms, run a brand new gas pipeline from Russia via of course – Ukraine. and the US cannot do anything about it.
I actually think cancelling NS2 is pretty ok for Russia. Aside from developing the trade with the East, its LNG is still cheaper than the US’ for Europe, and it is much more capable of developing its infrastructure to supply everyone, which the US certainly is not right now.
There is always that (historically unreasonable) fear that ‘the evil Eastern bogeyman will use energy as a weapon’, which is a lot easier to sell when there is a physical pipeline. When it’s an LNG tanker, and the company selling it can just wiggle out with ‘well, China was just willing to pay more’, that fear-mongering falls pretty flat on its face.
In the end Germany will be pushed towards buying Russian nat gas anyways – especially once NETPower’s Allam Cycle really starts getting traction on the market – but it will just cost Germany more.
Yeah the best way to put it is, NS2 coming online would be a big win for Russia, but NS2 NOT coming online would not be a big loss for Russia. Right now as we speak NS2 is not online and Russia still controls European energy market so it’s really only a ‘cherry on top’ type of thing, it’s not like it’s an already established pipeline utterly essential to Russian survival that will be destroyed, this is merely an addition, a dessert so to speak.
NS2 coming online would be a big victory for Germany and NS2 not coming online a big victory for the empire.
Without NS2 the German chemical industry might as well migrate to Russia. Without feedstock it has no prospects at all.
Germany is resource poor. It is also extraordinarily inefficient and run by fantasists
Yes, it’s fully up to the Germans whether they want commit suicide or not. Perhaps there is a reason why a law was passed quietly by the parliament regarding the almost free possession and carrying of weapons of all sorts (including full auto) for employess of State institutions….insane times indeed.
I live very far from Russia. And I have no right to ask someone to die for what I think. But, considering the history of several centuries, and considering that the beast will never resign, and that they also have control of the narrative (then, what Russia does, how it does it and when it does it, no longer matters), and be of importance to everyone, I believe that the matter must be resolved now to have a third millennium in peace …
This is for people who keep posting stuff about the U.S.’s so called technological superiority and how easily they can crush Russia in Europe etc.
“US Hypersonic Missile ‘Did Not Launch’ Due to Issue During Test, Air Force Says”
https://sputniknews.com/us/202104061082556297-us-hypersonic-missile-did-not-launch-due-to-issue-during-test-air-force-says/
US technical superiority is tested by US pilots testing US pilots. Once foreign armies get to test tanks against US tanks – US does not rank.
Once US warships are tested by French or UK submarines the world looks different.
Germany had the same problem with its Tiger tanks. Impressive in one setting but failures in another.
Technology is overrated – Vietnam did not have an airforce but still took out 31 B-52s with Soviet advisors
Kozak also said in his statement today that attack on Donbas will be ‘the beginning of the end’ for Ukraine.
Following Kozak statement, best picture of day “Vietnam”:
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6689126.html
Hello Saker
Many thanks for your informative contributions that paint a clear picture of what’s at stake here.
I’m afraid that at this point war is indeed all but inevitable. As mentioned the Biden administration is a collection of Russophobes of the worst stripe. The U.S. has invested too much for too long in the Ukraine and now the time has come to collect on the investment. It’s obvious NATO (America) wants this confrontation based on.all the reasons you and others have extensively discussed.
Though Zelinsky is President, his power is non existent and I suspect his personal well being is guaranteed only by his “cooperation” in pursuing policies desired by the ultranationalist Banderites. There clearly is no one in Kiev who can negotiate autonomously with Moscow.
Europeans, especially Germany, know the score but are unwilling to step up and force a Ukranian de escalation. They can see the train wreck occuring before their eyes but are powerless to avert the tragedy. The only explanation I can think of is the U.S. has major dirt on the upper echelons of German power and always threaten blackmail for them to toe the line. After all, wasn’t Merkel’s phone tapped by the U.S. a few years ago?
As for Poland and the Baltics, I think they’ve proven their insanity and lack of common.sense a long time ago.
I hope and pray that Russia has prepared herself sufficiently for the fall out when the Ukranian army is sumnarily crushed. Anything is game,; disconnection from SWIFT, simultaneous escalation in other theatres and possibly abduction or assasination of important Russian citizens abroad. Nothing is beyond the realm of impossible at this point.
“The only explanation I can think of is the U.S. has major dirt on the upper echelons of German power”
Dirt–major or minor–isn’t necessary. There’s always “novichok.” (Note the irony quotes!)
All of us are on a train without a machinist and the destination is a precipice. That’s makes me sad. It’s like an old film that I saw again and again, but unfortunatelly the most of the people can’t see it.
There was a short story by F. Dürrenmatt where the protagonist commutes with the train as every day and there is a short tunnel underway where they always pass through, this specific day after some time he wonders – the tunnel today seems rather unusually long, and soon enough it becomes clear that this is not every day’s tunnel, also the train slowly but steadily accelerates, so he walks through the train to watch for the ticket controller which is not to be found, finally he reaches the engine and there is nobody at the controls anymore.
The last year for many of us was the same horrific experience ! We are on a train(controlled by a death cult) in a dark tunnel destined to crash somewhere ahead full speed.
He did another one in the 80s called: ‘Winter War in Siberia’ protraying a nuclear war and it’s aftermath in Switzerland and ‘abroad’ as a mercenary on the frontline in the depths of Siberia.
Russia should say explicitly, “Enough proxy garbage–if you attack us via proxy, we’ll skip the middleman in our response.” NATO must be given a disincentive. “We’ll attack your proxies but leave you alone” is not a disincentive. Of course, Russia would need to be willing to follow through with that threat, which is questionable.
“US politicians are long on chutzpah and narcissistic and messianic self-worship, they ain’t too knowledgeable about history (or anything else !! ) ”
And also it would appear, the faceless money and influence behind said politicians.
“This being so; I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it.
Do you?”
Sigh. No. Lacking some unforeseeable Black Swan – no, sadly, I dont.
In fact, I’ve been growing in certainty that it was unavoidable for the last few years.
I was wondering if it was too late for my evening bedtime sip of Scotch. No, no ,I don’t think so. Not today.
Hello Saker,
Your question: “Even worse is that I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it. Do you?”
My answer:
You lived in CH and you probably know some German language. Look up what “Alois Irlmaier” had to say 70 years ago.
What he said and described as a situation in Germany and other EU countries is already happening since 6 years and others are materializing as I write this.
What will stop it ? In my opinion the same guy, who claimed ownership over this earth 2000 years ago (and rightly so).
Do you have holy candles and some stock ready for a 3 days of darkness event ? And I am serious here.
Thank You
BR from CH
PS: And I am not talking about the WEF cyber pandemic event planned for 2021
Los profetas del bosque, escrito por el general español José María Sanchez de Toca.Profecias cristianas sobre la tercera guerra mundial.Lectura recomendada.
Yandex translation. Mod.:
The prophets of the forest, written by the Spanish general José María Sanchez de Toca. Christian prophecies about the Third World War. Recommended reading.
One thing I will say is that like with anything, it is a zero sum game and there are ‘you win some you lose some’ moments for everyone involved. If NATO succeeds in generating this war (which I still doubt they will), they will win CERTAIN things such as probably stopping (at least for now) NS2 (though it may just be put on the ice indefinitely and resumed in future once again).
However the big thing NATO stands to LOSE and Russia to gain, is that Russia would be gaining the eastern Ukrainian republics (and possibly more, depending how far the war hypothetically goes). This could very well offset and outweigh the temporary loss of NS2. Of course this ‘gain’ may not be total and offifcial, i.e. DNR/LNR may not officially join Russia right after this war per se, (although it may put them perhaps onto a much closer fast track towards doing so), but it may set in motion certain events that could prove beneficial to Russia like an even vaster amount of East Ukrainians moving to Russia or an even tighter interlocking of Russian economy/utilities etc with Donbas, paving the way for fuller future integration.
This is similar to the give and take that happened in 2014. NATO gained some things in their attack on Ukraine’s democracy but they lost the prized jewel: Crimea and Russia still ended up being the bigger winner in that episode, snatching Sevastopol.
I see a similar thing here. NS2 at most will be paused, not terminated because first of all, you can’t “terminate” thousands of miles of pipeline already laid. They will still be there. Even if it takes a year or two or a few years, cooler heads will come into power in Germanic circles and massive legal fees for renegging on their contract will begin to turn the tide and they will come back to the drawing board and most likely renew NS2 construction. Meanwhile eastern Ukraine will never go back to Kiev, so ultimately in the ‘long game’ Russia ekes out the victory here either way, no matter which way it goes.
I think you are right. And Russia will take into account a short term economic shock situation, reflected in a short term fall of the Ruble to maybe 100 per USD. The long term gain is there, however.
Do we see the beginning of the formation of a greater Eurasian Union?
Saker:
Besides being blamed in the media for an “invasion”, and having NS2 canceled, and having to fight a war in which troops will get killed, and then having Nato put bases right up whatever new border gets created, what other damage are you referring to from the coming partitioning of Ukraine?
I guess that’s bad enough.
don’t forget that after that, the risks of a war will remain with us for many many years.
also, you can bet on the appearance of Ukronazi terrorism, and not only in Russia and the Ukraine
then the international economic consequences
in other words: war is always a Pandora box of horrors.
Guy from US
Ukraine will not be “partitioned”, as it will break up into three parts, the Western, Central and Eastern parts, the Eastern part already having the Donbass.
The name of Ukraine is derived from the Slavic word “Krayina”, which means “frontier region”. From Krayina you got “Ukrayina”, and from “Ukrayina” you have the current name of “Ukraine”, which was always Russias frontier region vis a vis the West. The first Russian state was created in Kiev. It was called “Rus”, and not “Kievian Rus”, which is a little invention of Western historians.
Ukraine has no historical reason to exist, as at least 75 % of it’s territory was annexed from Russia after the First World War. The exception is Western Ukraine, the former Galicia, which has mixed ethnic blood. The remaining 75 % of Ukraine has a population which is of Russian origin. The current Ukrainian “language” has approximately 90 % Russian words and 10 % Polish and Western words.
A breakup of Ukraine will eventually see the reunification of Eastern Ukraine with Russia, while Western Ukraine will become an area of contention between Poland, Hungary and Romania. And yes, The Saker is certainly correct; Poland could militarily annex Western Ukraine, amply helped by neo-Nazis from the region, who were backed and armed by Poland in 2014. This act would probably please Russia, as Poland would end up with Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
This leaves the question of Central Ukraine. It might exist briefly as a “sovereign” state, but it would be a matter of time before it rejoined Russia, where it belongs.
And the aftermath ? I don’t see either the EU or NATO lasting too long after the Donbass war. Wall Streets predatory policies will drive Europe towards Russia, while Americas total debt and financial situation will raise the question what will happen in the US once the whole system crashes. Will the US continue as a state in it’s present shape, bearing in mind what the reaction of at least half the US population is to Biden’s election steal and the fact that for years you have had secessionist movemets in the country ? We shall see.
I think Ruthenia (the bit of Ukraine on the western side of the Carpthians) wouldn’t loke to be in this rump Ukrainian state and might go for independence. They were part of Chekeslovakia before WW2.
Putin has said before that they don’t want the Ukraine and what good is a failed state to them? If the West keeps using it to make trouble Russia may have to sort it out anyway.
Ukraine was the frontier with the Turks, too.
Yeah western Ukraine (historical krasnaya Rus, Rus chervona in Polish or red Ruthenia in English) was annexed by the Poles about 800 years ago and has been controlled by the Poles or Austrians until WW2.
During those centuries they developed quite differently than their easter neighbors.
Funny that the poles always forget to mention how often they invaded Russia in the past, always when Russia was weak or had internal problems or concurrent invasions from the east.
Bryan MacDonald of RT is tweeting that a close Putin advisor has said if Ukraine wages full war, Russia will intervene. I am afraid that the US/NATO sees too many positives for them when the Ukraine suffers a total military defeat which Saker outlined above (NS2 shutdown, etc.). As Saker has noted before, the US has typically beat up on helpless countries. But since Hillary Clinton campaign, it seems the neocon war mongers decided to go bear hunting. Trump went that way also. And now Biden. Only thing is that the bear also has a gun. And it is big.
The Stray Bullet
To be honest, nothing makes any sense. Ukraine has nothing to gain but everything to loose by attacking LNDR with full force. Russia has to do very little. Maybe declare a kind of “no fly zone” over eastern Ukraine – which is more than reasonable if they present it as a precaution against any commercial airliner being shot down again (MH17). Other than that: Intel sharing, logistic support and some “Oops we pressed the wrong button” precision strikes to protect the civilian population against artillery strikes – with no direct prove of involvement of course.
Maybe the plan isn’t really to attack LNDR but to build up an scenario in which they can (counter) attack Crimea. This way they could finally have their war with Russia – not one they could ever hope to win – enabling the western democracies to go into full Russia-Hate-Mode-Frenzy. This is what they get payed for – the rest is just cheap theater. Of course not cheap for the poor souls that will perish (mostly conscripts) but who cares. The calculation is that Russia would not dare to fully invade Ukraine after the public outcry and LNDR would not counterattack neither as there would be no real attack on them in the first place.
Q
1. Further domestic distraction from total economic and social collapse
2. The USA is flailing like a gut-shot rhinoceros. It’s going to die, but by god it intends to spastically run, jump, dive and strike out as it does so
3. Obviously war materiel companies are a massive donor to the current regime and need their tendies
4. A huge nation like Russia no longer under any form of international Jew control and exploitation is extremely offensive to the very rich – something has to be done which will have the effect they want, and nothing has worked in 7 years
5. Further heaping of punishment on Europeans of caucasian extractment for the sacrilegious many historical expulsions of those with teensy hats
Most nations want to be sovereign and enrich lives of their people. However, these nations have been constrained by the Dollar Empire through limitations on usage of their national currencies. Any nation moving into the Non-$ camp (National Currency) is becoming a threat to the Dollar Empire as it needs to create lots of DEBT (money).
The EU wants to promote the usage of euros for trade, energy, commodities,… Also, nations with the export oriented model like Germany, Japan… would prefer long term price contracts instead of being held hostage by future markets. Since the debt creation of the dollar has moved into an exponential phase, nations don’t want to dilute their savings too. The risk of sanctions further increases risk. Many market activities and structural challenges have created a quagmire for the Financial Titanic (Dollar Empire).
The only way this Dollar Empire can be STOPPED is by nations declaring they won’t conduct their international trade in the US dollars and not sell their goods to the United States in dollars. The United States like other nations need to earn its foreign exchange before spending. There can’t be a double standard where the U.S. creates money and other nations earn. This is unfair and unsustainable. The U.S. has been free-riding for more than 75 years now, since 1945. Its trade deficit has been substantially negative ($600+ billion per year) in this century.
The EU moves into the adversary group as it promotes wider usage of euros with such declarations:
“Member states should promote wider use of the euro in relations with third countries in field of energy, including in contracts within the framework of bilateral and multilateral international agreements,…The Commission calls on member states to include in their intergovernmental agreements with third countries a model clause, developed by the Commission, related to the use of the euro as default currency”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/here-s-how-europe-plans-to-challenge-the-dollar-in-world-markets
Should we not factor in that the Bidens themselves are doing ‘business’ in Ukraine? Notably his son on his behalf, a story that they’ve been trying to bury for awhile?
So I’d expect the Biden family cartel to use the fog of war to destroy evidence of their dealings, or the war is simply a way to keep business going as usual and protect their income as everyone will be too busy dealing with the war to concentrate on whether or not the Bidens are making money on the side. The war story becomes the lead. Inconvenient people can end up dead, because “the Russians” did it.
We should be digging into what the Bidens are up to in Ukraine, that may help answer a lot of questions.
I agree, Johnno. It is just incredible that our news media maintain a hands-off stance toward Biden business dealings in the Ukraine (and China, AAMOF).
We must keep up the pressure on Hunter Biden’s and the family’s connections in Ukr.
Imagine the hysteria if Trump waged war on a country where he wanted to quash a competitor in the hotel business.
Katherine
The Saker called this war “an existential war for both sides”. So, what is at stake is survival, no less. The most threatened one side feels, the most risky its moves.
The US devised this “European 9/11” psyop. They will carry it on. It will backfire spectacularly.
The quote “No plan survives contact with the enemy” is an adaptation of an original quote from Helmuth von Moltke, field marschall of Prussia at the XIX century: “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength”.
Chances of this pysop working as wished are close to zero. This time, there are too many “enemies” — Russia, China, Iran. All of them powerful of its own.
To launch this psyop will be to open a Pandora Box.
God save Russia and Novorossiya.
I can’t imagine even one second that Poutine and his staff have not anticipate this scenario.
The problem is not the Ukies, to weak for Russia.
The problem is not USA. Hostilities are even at the top. They are mean but far. They will not risk a direct war where they have all to loose.
Problem is not P+4, they only bark and shit where US boss say. To weak to.
The problem is Germany and France and the reste of Europe.
The solution is there too.
And if for Anglos and west medias it’s the same thing il Russia enter in Ukraine or not as soon as she make her weapons talk, it’s not the same for current German leader and almost all politic french class.
It’s to Germany and France to make respect their indépendance.
If they can’t or don’t want, all is lost ,not for Russia wich will able to look at east, but for Européans wich will change of statut from vassal to serve.
The other problem is Qatar and Turks wich seem send fanatic takfiris in Ukraine.
I’m sure that Russians will act where nobody wait them, with a great speed and a total determination.
@Frenchy
“The problem is Germany and France and the rest of Europe.”
That concerns Saker’s essential question in this Thread #7. I think that the military odds of an Uki aggression have already been sufficiently discussed in the previous threads. They don’t look good.
The question now is whether the people of France, Germany and those of Empire’s core vassals will allow themselves to be destroyed in a US war on Europe. In this regard I am not optimistic about France and Germany asserting their souvereignty and regaining respect for their independence. Not to speak of Empire’s Most Faithful Vassals, Norway (already occupied), The Netherlands, Italy and Portugal (semi- occupied).
P+4 are lost anyway, willing to sacrifice themselves.
Here is an interesting / revealing interview by Kristini Nikitina with Norwegian academic Bjørn Nistad for Baltnews about the attitude of one of such vassals (Norway) which is actually allowing Empire not only to occupy their country but also allowing them to set up bases in Norway’s Arctic isles (e.g. Jan Mayen). The interview was reported and partly summarized by Steigan from Norway.
Norway’s elite is willing to sacrify their people. Having worked in Norway during the ’70s and lived there again for from ’03-’17 I find the hypocracy of the Norwegian leadership claiming to be the world’s most benign nation absolutely unbearable. But what can I say, hailing myself from hypocrite No. 2 in line, The Netherlands.
Nikitina at: https://baltnews.ee/Russia_West/20210319/1019369693/Norvezhskiy-politolog-Oslo-mozhet-pustit-voennye-bazy-SShA-v-Arktiku.html
As this interview is done in Russian, Steigans summary report can be found here:
https://steigan.no/2021/04/oslo-vil-kunne-gi-usa-militaerbaser-i-arktis/
Lots of translation work there…
I would not rule out the idea that Russia may act first if they think the war is inevitable. I take Russian leadership seriously when they state that Ukraine will be destroyed . . . it will not exist after this war. I suspect the Transnistria problem will also be “solved” at the same time.
But what is the likelihood that NATO et al will stay out of it? I am guessing the plan in D.C. is to get the big NATO “exercise” going first, then launch the attack. Will Putin wait for that to happen? Remember what he said he learned about street fighting . . .
Sometimes Russian intelligence was able to prevent false flag attacks in Syria, perhaps even in Ukraine without us knowing anything about. I remember an instance where an attack plan of Ukrainian general staff was published in Russian media. It looked like some dreamed up Blitzkrieg scenario, total bullshit, but the fact, that the plan was given to Donbas showed that Ukrainian and Western agencies are f*ed at every level.
Still it might be possible to do something like MH-17 again, that or something with “chemical weapons”. To big a part of Western public is ready to accept every narrative.
With Ukraine the west has an evil little dog, that is now rabid. Like such a dog, however small, can be a deadly threat to even a Caucasian shepherd dog so Ukraine can be a deadly threat to Russia if its defense is not organized in a way that ensures non-infection.
The West WANTS Russia to “swallow” a big chunk of Ukraine, to infect it. Russia therefore MUST resist the temptation to “show strength”. Anyone knows that the Russian army could be ordered to Lvov and would be there in 36 hours. That must not happen.
What they must do is destroy the Ukrainian statehood by destroying its army in Donbas and only “keeping” areas that are willing to be on Russia’s side AND are not a burden economically. The rest of Ukraine must be seen as “occupied territory”. Russia will be able to get it one time. But not now. If Russia takes to big chunks of Ukraine under a protective umbrella it will take the problems there too. And they will spread. Corruption and capitalist decline are the diseases that plaque the regions from Lissabon to Saporosye. Russia must stay out of this.
It will be a pain to watch Ukraine (and Europe and USA) desintegrate, but I see no other way. I say that as a German who would not have a problem to be freed again :)
On the other hand I don’t see a reason why a show of possibilities with some well placed Kalibr missiles to some vital points of Ukrainian military infrastructure should do any harm. The closer to the front line, the better for propaganda reasons.
Western powers send “messages” when they bomb. At least they talk this way. And because they are idiots, they believe what they say. Russia may send “messages” with stand off weapons, with electronic warfare against NATO ships in the Black sea and so on. But it must not begin to think like the West: In boasting with power, in show what they can do. Even some heavy strikes in Idlib may do the trick to scare off the West – for a time.
The West with its “values” will go down by itself. No need to get involved.
So this must be the strategy for Russia: Do whatever it can to prevent a war. If the war comes end it fast and decisive without any pictures of “little green men” in Ukraine going around the world. After that – wait.
Russia doesn’t have to hope for the West to make mistakes. They will happen. Then take the next step.
Best regards
I agree with you absolutely and I always say the same thing
I understand that people had enough and are fed up with USA provocations and those Banderites.
But yes, not now not now not now to invade Ukraine
Russia MUST be patient…to help LDNR to defend themselves …to focus to defense and nothing else and to make Banderites to break teeth on LDNR defense with massive losses.
Russia should not get involved in the war. Hopefully demonstration of Russian military power and force will be enough.
Russia have very very very important tasks in next 10 to 15 years … crucialy important.
So not to get sucked in war because USA would achieve and gain what they want. It would be disaster for Russia.
And it is not only reason. Also, by invading and taking over Ukraine Russia would inherit enormous economic burden that would terribly ruin Russian economy and it is one another objective that Empire wants to achieve.
So only to focus to defense of LDNR. The most that Russia could allow is for LDNR army to liberate entire Lugansk and Doneck regions IF IT IS POSSIBLE and NOTHING MORE. It would cause disastrous consequence for Kiev regime and their USA masters.
But even that is not necessary. To protect LDNR and that is it.
Ukraine will be part of federation with Russia for sure. Together with Belarus. It is inevitable.
But not now. Russian economy is still not strong enough.
I believe that Putin and his team are aware of everything. And that they will do what is in the best interests of Russian Federation.
Russia can easily stop all this nonsense.
The important thing to remember is that so called western civilization is, at least in past 20 years, based on perceptions and illusions. Perception of being unbeatable, indispensable, most democratic, most advanced, etc. Those perceptions and ilusions are what keeps western society together internally.
Perception of evil, but weak and incompetent Russia, who does not have guts for aggresive open confrontation, is part of what fuels those western illlusions and perceptions.
The best option for Russia is to finally smashes that illussion in a way that cannot be reinterpreted as anything else but utter defeat for the collective west.
Therefore, if Russian leadership understands all this and have enough chutzpah to follow it through, solution is clear enough:
Therefore, wait untill ukronazis attack, give them some small opening victories (some sacrifices will be sadly necessary), let them advance and take few villages and even a bigger town, and let the victory drums sounding all over EU and USA.
After a week or so, when western elite happily congratulates each others, activate tank divisions and armies, declare no-fly zone and start rolling up to western ukrainian borders, destroying mercillesly all armed resistance in a way. This won’t be too hard and it will take up to 3 weeks, if that much.
Stop at Lvov, corral all russophobes there, give them some autonomy, invite Poland to absorb part of it, and let them have it and deal with it.
Rest of the Ukraine is to be put firmly under Russian control; after that some *nation rebuilding process* can start, resulting in expulsion of russophobe remnants(won’t be too much of them), and incorporation of Ukraine in RF.
This would shatter all perceptions and illusions of power and superiority in the collective west, and probably result in mass demonstrations and calls for new goverment policies, as people would understand that Russia is not weak anymore, should not be bullied, and everyone should try as hard as possible to be in good relations with it.
After that, EU nations would trip over themselves to hurry up with NS2, start with NS3 and be extremely nice to Russia, which would in the end contribute to EU becoming hostile towards USA and fight for independence, creating in process a better place to live in.
Russia has at the moment military advantage sufficient to do this bold move, and if their leadership sees that, than we shouldn’t wait too long to see this unfolding.
As SAS moto says: Who dares wins.
I agree with you – western Europeans only respect force. As do cowards and bullies/psychopaths everywhere.
This war is coming anyway so timing is the only question. Putin and Xi are closer now than ever,thanks to US diplomacy. Belarus and Syria held firm. Turkey and India will stay on the fence. US economy and society falling apart,and the George Floyd case and new gun laws should make for a very hot summer. Russia has a good military and it’s economy is holding,so now might be the best time to sort out the old problems. If EU sanction NS2 Russia could stop energy supple through Ukraine and the EU will swelter in the summer and freeze in the winter..
The prospect of war is very disturbing even from way down here in NZ and I am very grateful to the Saker, who I have followed since MH17, for what must be one of the best sources of balanced information out there. (so you can claim another convert to Russia’s geo-political view). Today we had the first beginnings of the US propaganda on our mainstream news saying Putin said Russia may have to ‘defend’ the East Ukrainians. Amazing how quotation marks completely change the meaning. No doubt the propaganda will ramp up from now on. I Hesitate to suggest but. Perhaps a false flag against its own plpelines could halt Russia’s gas supply to Europe and bring some reality to Europeans about where their best interests lie. Then Russia can promptly restore the supply to give Merkel and Co some working room to oppose the NATO warmongers. My thoughts are with all those who are impacted directly by the actions of these despicable corrupt politicians bankers and corporate Carpet baggers
Interesting this topic should come up. Actually, I was thinking that way back when the U.S.A. government invaded Iraq. At that time, the U.S.A. government also started casting both Germany and France as enemies. All of a sudden French wine became sour, and saurkraut was no longer fun to eat. Then very shortly thereafter, the mess in the Ukraine started simmering hotter. Hmmm, sounds like the cancer of war was being spread northeast into continental Europe I thought. I believe Germany is the king pin they are trying to dislodge. When Germany gets trashed so goes the rest of western Europe, and from there it is clear marching over into Russia.
Germany is in a sticky, sticky spot.
There’s a lot of quiet, non bombastic rebellion in the States causing disaffection and doubt in the Federal government. We are a nation of sovereign states still and people are voting the old fashioned way…with their money and their feet.
We also remember who got us into the Vietnam quagmire as well as Iraq and would rather they don’t do that again with the same rhetoric, lies, and tricks to inflame emotion.
In his latest writing https://www.unz.com/article/the-dictatorship-of-numbers Andrzej Martyanov explains his view on the basics of the situation in his typical unexcited way: That it’s mainly a US American simulation of all out war to scare the EUropeans into unconditional subjugation to be able to further sell them overpriced weapons and other helpful or useless goodies which US America still has been producing and to keep Russian and Chinese influence on EUrope as small as possible. But of course that simulation of war can easily spiral out of control…
Well Z seemed fairlly pleased with himself visiting the front line today….thanks troops for the sacrifices that will not be forgotten. No one seemed to want to stab him in the back. He has been busy eg phoning Advisor to UK prime minister(wonder who that was)…and of course adding to the lust of who he meets…representatives from Canada…..Latvia Nato Rep to Ukraine…..going to set up a centre to counter disinformation etc etc yeah yeah yeah
No layest comment by EU Council or PACE on the situation…..all the dummies staying schtum….since
On Feb 11 UN Security Council USA and EU countries blamed Russia for Minsk Failure…failure to remove heavy weapons….supplying the republics etc etc.
Perhaps there would be a discussion here
On the occasion of the German Chairmanship of the Committee of Ministers, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Minister of State for Europe Michael Roth will participate in the spring session of PACE (19-22 April 2021) which will take place in a hybrid format. The President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the Secretary General of the organisation, Marija Pejčinović Burić, will also address PACE. At this session, the Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, will present her 2020 annual report and the Assembly will award its Václav Havel Human Rights Prize. Topics on the agenda include a debate on the Assembly’s vision of the Council of Europe’s strategic priorities and a joint debate on human rights violations and the need for electoral reform in Belarus. The OECD’s work on taxing the digital economy with the participation of its Secretary General Ángel Gurría, discrimination against people with chronic and long-term illnesses, post-monitoring dialogue with Montenegro, the preservation of national minorities and a European policy on diasporas will also be discussed. There have been requests for urgent debates on “The arrest and detention of Alexei Navalny in January 2021” and on “The functioning of democratic institutions in Turkey”.
Maybe they will have something else to talk about. But Austria did ask back in May last year for an investigation into far fight Ukraine extremism eg politicians being hospitalised by baseball bats to the head after the covid thingy……..
‘At this session, the Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, will present her 2020 annual report and the Assembly will award its Václav Havel Human Rights Prize’.
As I wrote previously I was considering this very subject and my conclusions were … “All this leads me to consider the USA the number one most honest and ethical country in the world with israel and the UK number 2 and 3.”
As I promised I would be developing a video to support my arguments and thus:
https://youtu.be/y3JNiP4dfrw
Note those offended by my artistic licence regarding some nudity need to take heed also please be aware the US needs this particular licence to convince it’s people its actions are necessary.
Couple of items to consider…
NS2 will be completed about a month from now.
Ukraine is currently too muddy for real tank action. Historically, the best month to invade Russia is in late June. Rushing it brings that date to early May…about the same time NS2 is completed.
NS2 changes the balance of power in EU…Poland fades, Germany gains.
Ukraine is almost out of money.
Jordan just avoided a possible coup…looking for suspects now.
Lots of things could happen between now and May/June…Z could defect and run. It’s clear he’s dead whichever way the war goes if he stays in Ukraine
The Saudi’s could lose their war with Yemen…which would change the dynamics of USA/SA/Israel…a lot.
And remember…Trump changed the rules of war when he killed Solomani.
Lots of possibilities. Everything is connected.
My money is on Putin.
“Trump changed the rules of war when he killed Solomani”
It was a little out of character and I have a vague suspicion that was done behind the Trumpster’s back by Pentagon/CIA/ZioLand.
He was better off going with the flow and gaining ‘war cred’ than enduring the humiliation of being bypassed – and his narcissistic personality would not have allowed any humiliation..
Apparently those NATO nations supporting Ukraine are the “QUINT.” UK, US, Poland, Lithuania and Canada. So, as Mark Sleboda points out, 25 NATO nations not supporting (which doesn’t necessarily mean they will not go along in the end)
It is being reported that 10 Russian vessels are being transferred from Caspian to Black Sea. How can they do this? Is there a canal/river route? Apologies for my ignorance.
Check Volga-Don canal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga%E2%80%93Don_Canal
There is even connection Black Sea to White Sea (Barent Sea further in the north) through Baltic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga%E2%80%93Baltic_Waterway
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Sea%E2%80%93Baltic_Canal
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2021/04/08/nazvana-cel-pokhoda-rossiyskikh-korabley-iz-kaspiyskogo-morya-v-azovskoe.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3D
They are small ships that could carry one APC or a platoon of infantry. The route they take from the Caspian to Azov has long been established. The ships of the Caspian Flotilla have already used it. In particular, two missile boats when they had to go to the Mediterranean Sea. The ships leave the Caspian Sea along the Volga, then follow the Volga-Don Canal to the Don River, and from there to the Sea of Azov. Shipping ships by this route is the most realistic, convenient and shortest way than sending reinforcements to the Black Sea from the Baltic or Northern Fleet, not to mention the Pacific Fleet. And Caspian Flotilla boats, if necessary, can operate both in the Sea of Azov and in the Black Sea.
US Mulls Sending Warships Into Black Sea To Be “Ready To Respond” To Ukraine Crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-mulls-deploying-warships-black-sea-be-ready-respond-ukraine-crisis
There was some quiet backpedaling:
https://tass.com/world/1275819
Pentagon does not confirm US plans to send warships to the Black Sea
Which tells me that someone with a functioning brain and a grasp of the reality of Russian ship killer missiles at EUROCOM overrode the ijjit in Wokeland who said that to CNN.
What General LGBTQ+ is doing though is to rally the faithful and consult with fellow plotters. From Sputnik’s Telegram channel:
“US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin embarks Saturday on a trip to Israel, Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom. At NATO HQ in Brussels he will discuss “destabilising” Russia’s behavior and “rising” China, Pentagon said.”
This is a quite spontaneous reaction by me. What you say here, Saker, is very logical and it might come this way. You describe a convincing plan for the USA. However, I can really not see where they have the capacities for such a plan. I am seriously asking me whether I am too naive. But for me, these people have just not enough mental capacities, they have not the imagination, not the intelligence, not the necessary clear thinking. They live in their illusions and dreams, and my feeling is that their plan is and will be much more stupide than the Saker’s plan. But of course, it is better not to underestimate the enemy.
What Putin, Xi and UK/US should be doing is keeping the war to proxies.
Let the Donbass and Ukraine fight, let the Poles go in a fight, let Romania and Bulgaria go berserk against each other. Turkey and Greece fight. We go in and clean up……………………….. and won.
The East-European buffer belt of deplorable nations fight to their stone age, and we the elite take over their land and resources…………………..LOL.
This is what the Club Putin, Xi and the US Neo-Cons should be doing, and we have global peace!
Extract
“…..As for the statements of the Ukrainian leadership, there have been many articles and analytical reports on this subject. We are concerned about this situation, we are also talking to our European colleagues and we hope that they also understand what is happening in Washington. Unfortunately, so far the actions and reactions of our Western colleagues to the military build-up and redeployment of troops to the contact line in Donbass have been disappointing. Apparently, our Western colleagues still assume that it is necessary to support the Ukrainian authorities in every possible way, including in its absolutely unacceptable actions and statements,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. Commenting on the joint statement by the French and German foreign ministers, who pointed to Russian troop movements in Russia and supported Ukraine without condemning the death of little Vladislav, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Council of the Russian Federation, said that the position of European countries on the conflict in the Donbass is only “adding fuel to the fire”. “As long as the West remains silent, Kiev will interpret this default position as a carte blanche for a military operation, for the restoration of territorial integrity by force…..”
https://www.donbass-insider.com/2021/04/08/growing-tensions-between-russia-and-the-west-amid-escalation-in-the-donbass/
If there are major war operations in Ukraine and there is a partitioning of Ukraine and the creation of a front that will be shared by American forces with allies and Russian forces from the east – I am sure that there will be an exchange of tactical nuclear strikes. The Americans will not give up Europe or leave the situation to NATO LGBTQWERTY forces. The old monarchies of old Europe from which the rule based order originates are the genome on which the empire rests, the last empire in the series. I think two incompatible worlds are colliding now. One that has changed somewhat and the other that can’t. NS2 is irrelevant. A frightening future will make it irrelevant.
Recent discussions here and the analysis of Andrei Martyanov (via Pepe Escobar) have me formulating an opinion that the salient point is that the Western Empire has no strategic conceptions only tactical ones – the product of generations of what might be called “narrative hegemony”. Here in the empire one only has to note the mindless repetition of stultifying neo-liberal slogans substituting for actual thought (and dynamic ruling class praxis) after years of ideological dominance. This is what we have learned as “TINA” (there is no alternative). Simply put, now, they cannot think for themselves, nor on their feet.
Perhaps the Russian word we have learned here in Saker’s Vineyard as meaning “not-agreement-capable” might also be translated as “incorrigible”?
In this light, I am wondering if the RF should engage in some horse-trading?
I am reminded of Lavrov in 2013 making John Kerry literally eat his words over Syrian chemical weapons; it was inspirational at the time, as it remains to this day. Horse-face trading?!
Offer them what they want. In return for German and French commitment to NS2, the autonomy of LDNR over the entirety of their regions, and the acceptance of the Crimean referendum to rejoin RF, let Zelensky have his NATO “peacekeepers”?
Why not give NATO what it wants, let it come right to the door step, face to face with mighty Russia and see how it likes living there? There can be no simple “kick the door in” thinking this time.
Tactically it might seem like a zero-sum game (the Empire’s only game); strategically will it even matter, when the empire is overstretched and crumbling, and the inexorable force in the world lies with Russian and Chinese commitment to multi-polarity?
Surely even the EU will see on what side their bread is buttered, and NATO reduced to a crumbling edifice occupied with the de-nazification of Ukraine? (Let them defend the human rights, anti-racism and liberal order there…in the archetypal Trumpistan).
Oh, and as someone here mused already, why not (at some frozen, pre-dawn border checkpoint) trade Julian Assange for Navalny?!
Great comment. Loved the last sentence
Great idea, but as you said it yourself , they are “not-agreement-capable”, besides, no one is listening anyways, media is corrupted etc., so back to the trenches. As for the Ovalny, hah, I think The Saker should open a separate thread so we can have fun.
Now UN peacekeepers to ensure UN Resolution for Minsk as Ukraine is not capable ….working hand in hand with Russian peaceleepers-military-police would perhaps take it out of Z ‘s hands and enhance Russian presence “legitimately”…..???
Beautifully phrased, that last sentence. If only……….
Please, US is not selling “more expensive” gas or “dirtier gas”. The fracking craze is over. US does not have gas to sell. If we do have some availability in future there are no LNG tankers and no port facilities. US will never be a reliable supplier. All that is being sold is a dream. If Europe thinks they will get gas from US they will not pay too much, they will freeze.
oldhippie,
You are right. And not many people are even aware that fracking went bust.
Many of the small fracking operators have gone bankrupt. They had been funded by Wall Street venture capital outfits who understood that shale energy wasn’t making money, but they figured that with better technology that eventually it would turn a profit.
Better technology came along but fracking still didn’t turn a profit – especially with the world wide economic turndown due to Covid19.
Now venture capital is bailing on the whole thing.
The big companies (mainly Exxon and Occidental Petroleum) who invested in shale also took major financial hits.
All of this spells the end of the “fracking miracle.”
Even worse, the fracking projects were focused on oil. Natural gas was often burnt off into the atmosphere since often there were no gas pipelines to ship it.
A lot of it is just gone.
What will be left is huge bills for environmental clean up.
If the Ukraine gambit kills NS2, the big loser will be German industry. They will be left scrambling to obtain natural gas. This could seriously affect Germany’s future as the industrial powerhouse of Europe.
And, again and again, it is against Germany, for a long time, in addition to Russia, to avoid their alliance, of course. (Bismarck was clear about it, and that’s why they overthrew him)
When will the Germans wake up? Or will they continue to dream, like the Russian Atlanticists, that the Angles consider them peers?
The B..tch was all in for the NWO fascist SuperState right from the beginning, she could care less about NS2 – that’s just kept up because there is pressure from parts of the industry, without it she would give a damn about it. Statehood must be destroyed in order to form the SuperState – living german culture – to be erased (there is an official left slogan: “Germany die a wretched death” (Claudia Roth now presiding the Parliament !!!)). Merkel is the cheer leader of the NWO-scheme in Europe without any doubt !
NS2 will be cancelled as soon the first pre-fabricated russian involvment stories rotate when the Ukros start their suicide ride, she just needs that little to silence the flimsy opposition in the industry, the money aristocracy is fully fascist anyway and fully behind her.
Remember, Trump never hand shaked with the B..tch (to my knowledge), for very good reason !
Dear Saker,
How I see it, as long as Putin is around and in charge, there will be no world war – Putin is a guarantor for peace ! Some my wish that he would act more decisive but how I see it – to keep this world at peace is the real challenge and not many have the wisdom, foresight, strength and love to preserve our beautiful planet – Sure if Russia face a full blown attack he would react to protect his people and to get the situation back under control as quickly as possible – Putin is aware that once the situation gets out of control – Russia is on its own! There would be not much help on the way – I wouldn’t count too much on China – That being said, once he is not around anymore all bets are off table
Saker:
I agree with you that “Uncle Shmuel is preparing a continental 9/11 PSYOP operation. Even worse is that I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it.”
As I said in a previous comment, those who control the West, want a new Iron Curtain between Europe and Russia. I still maintain that the puppet masters do not want a nuclear war. They just want to destroy Russia as a strong sovereign nation and turn it into a failed state. Think Libya. Severing all economic links between Russia and the West would certainly damage Russia economically. But would it be fatal? I think not. I am reminded of the observation by Nietzsche: “Out of life’s school of war – what does not kill me makes me stronger.”
TheBAG
This reminds me of the partition of Poland between USSR and Nazi Germany.
The EU is the biggest enemy of Europe. Not the US.
Another thing to consider, the very best time for China to take Taiwan is when NATO and the US are attempting to counter Russia in Ukraine.
Also, things are crumbling here in the US. I have never seen such a huge divide between so many different factions as what we have today…and getting worse by the week. I don’t know when but I can’t fathom that Americans will accept much longer that their government continues to use our tax money to indiscriminately kill foreigners, very few with White skin, in places that are not threatening US. Many here of all races are beginning to wake up. Now if we could just understand that neither oligarch owned party will ever try to get along with the rest of the world when there is money to be made through conflict. We are just too propagandized for that.
German industry, actually European industry in general, really need Nord Stream 2 badly. They actually need Nord Stream 3!! They need it to remain competitive, as they need to compete with China and with the USA. This is why I think Germany will push back hard on further sanctions on Russia, even if war breaks out. They will be furious with the Ukronazis, and I believe they will call them out publicly – let’s see, only time will tell.
There are plenty of idiots in the US and EUSSR who think that sending American LNG across the Ocean is the solution to Europe’s energy needs. These people have zero technical knowledge, and are just plain stupid. This will cost probably three times more, everyone’s gas bills would go up, and the industrial base would be hurt very badly, jobs will be lost for sure, the population would get more furious, populism would rise more and much quicker. Not only that, but there will be a new flood of refugees from Ukraine for Merkel to feed.
For these reasons, I think there is a chance that a wide war may be avoided. But, even if it isn’t, Nord Stream 2 will still be finished – as will more pipelines to China which will make them even more competitive. Money talks, and this is ultimately about money and energy costs.
There are nowhere near enough LNG ships to transport from the US to meet Europe’s needs. The US lacks the infrastructure to do this. The fracking industry is dying. And the US gas is not as good quality. Russia can supply LNG to Europe much easier at lower cost than the US – but higher cost than piped. There is no alternative to Russian gas – other than freezing, and re-locating German industry to Russia.
Dragan: Just a thought that crossed my mind reading this comment:
“…as they (Germany) need to compete with China and with the USA. This is why I think Germany will push back hard on further sanctions on Russia, even if war breaks out.”
USA is at least very open about it in their 12 point propaganda piece for Westernized part of Disunited Ukraine. No completion of NS2 desired.
The 10th March 12 point propaganda piece in English “partnership Ukraine & USA” illustrates this for all to read. If a war would be more easy for USA than to make the 12 point happen if you get my drift.
Is there a clear statement by the Chinese government about the “benefit of NS2”?
Or would they silently prefer to see Russia postpone the NS2 to have European market supporting import of China produced supplies and finished products over Belt and Road? After all China needs the EU market to compensate for some future loss of USA bound export when US finally starts the long talked about recovery of healthy parts of their national production capacity.
China needs to wish this for the USA more than anything as the only future way out of the now dominant war industry economy.
-Russia does not need NS2 as much as Germany and EU needs it has been stated many times.
-Russia is now pivoting to China and constructive partners in Asia by USA and EU vassal construct “end of classic diplomacy and agreement valid till next phone call”
Europe on a China baxter, surviving not thriving as usual but stable.. USA happy with NS2 cancelled making America great again by producing plastic junk right next to Walmart, Russia happy with gas to China. ..
Der Kommandant rallies the troops.
https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/2841838/2841838_900.jpg
“Do you?”:-
If you want a crisis to go away create a bigger one!
Russians militarily occupy the Golan Heights on behalf of the Syrian people.
Install S300s operated by Syrian personnel.
Install S400s operated by Russian personnel.
Watch the AZ banker slime slither to the negotiation table…
I insist: The masters of the Anglo’s are not in Israel but in global financial corporations. It is true that there is a serious geopolitical problem (which must be solved with justice), but that is part of the distraction in which the “Venetians” have us.
(The Jewish people are as hostage to the beast as we are …)
Sorry to off topic but I have been grinding things around in my head when the light came on in my skull. This fight is about more than Europe and NS2. Russia is trapped with no way out but to start a major war.
Z has declared war.
NATO maneuvers in Ukraine are a cover for a troop build up. We’ve all seen it before.
NATO is contemplating placing more ships in the Black Sea.
Relatively small force lining up against Donbass = bait. Where are the rest of the nazis?
If Russia fires one round into Ukraine then Ukraine has the right to shoot back including at Russian ships in the Black Sea.
Russia will be forced to take the entire Black Sea coast. How do they cross the Dnieper once NATO troops are lining the other side?
Without the Black Sea how do they resupply Syria?
I am starting to think this is more about Syria and the apartheid state of occupied Palestine selling stolen oil to Europe once NS2 is cancelled. Or I could be full of (removed language,MOD). I hope the latter.
“Russia is trapped with no way out but to start a major war.”
I’d suggest stop grinding and start relaxing. Russia goes all the way to the Pacific — there is pleanty of space and opportunity there (Korea, Japan, China, Vietnam, …). And Iran to the south and India
It is only the Euro-centric (British) perspectives that sense entrapment. What you are exhibiting/experiencing is a double-bind condition some associate with the drift toward mental health issues. Cut through the sense of entrapment and see it as shifting opportunities. Old Europe is dying — the latest virus is just helping out (Nature abhors a vaccum). The new one? Who knows? And without their colonial cocktails to drink from, who cares? … it is increasingly marginal to future world events.
I wish it was just that. The problem is historical: “the West” has been trying to subdue, if not destroy Russia for almost a thousand years. You cannot turn your back on it and keep plowing the land: they will come upon you again and again …
(When I was a teenager, I stoically endured the aggressions and hostilities of a certain gang for a long time, and that seemed to encourage them to continue their hostility, until I confronted their leader and defeated him in front of everyone: they never attacked me again) …
When the gas and oil pipelines are destroyed that transit Ukraine to Europe, then cooler heads will prevail. Europe will needs some tough love.
That is one of the false flags I am watching for.
A major pipeline in Ukraine goes boom.
Who is crazy enough?
The nazii-bois ?
Cui bono? (Lol. spell check insists on “bozo”)
-DPR | LPR
_ freelancing Russians
_ Mossad (and or FUKUS )
_ Hedge funds (insiders 9/11 IRCC)
Action by any one of these instantly becomes action by Putin, and its “game on”.
The American plan is the geopolitical equivalent of a Rube-Goldberg machine. Like the financiers who inhabit their central bank rigged markets, American “strategists” have lost all sense of risk-reward.
They treat their European allies like their own battered spouse. In their attempt to traumatize the Europeans more tightly into their Imperial embrace, maybe cancel NS2;they risk dissolving their marriage, NATO.
The risk of confrontation with Russia is at best the cancelling of a pipeline and the induction of a failed Nazi state into NATO. At worst it’s the end of civilization. Not even Dr. Strangelove himself, were he real, would suggest such a trade off. Madness!
P.S. a contributor to the comments, Auslander, quoted an excerpt from his book, An Incident on Simonka, on one of the previous threads. I ordered his books, all three, and blazed through the aforementioned title. Fantastic read. Thank you Auslander.
1. “the Russia people rallied around Putin, …”– Well, they (the Russians and we sympothetic outsiders) only need to look at the corrupt and degenerate Ukraine situation today in order to see what a Yeltsin+ future would have looked like for all of Russia without V. Putin. Putin (and his core team) have earned a place in the history books, imo.
2. NS2 — who really cares? NS1 is operational. It is just a capacity up grade. If/when the terminus arrives in German national waters then various options exist. Build a barge with gas compressors on it and sell as LNG to ships at $usd price equivalents (less transport advantage discount).
3. As the saying goes: “… then they take you to war.” The criminal minded have flooded the governance systems like a cancer almost universally outside China and Russia. Once the bone marrow goes it is all but over. We are not far off this stage in many areas. The mass media is in hyper drive trying to “narrative” the future for the benefit of the 1% few — but the reality outside the lace curtins real life for most is fast turning into a horror show.
4. I suspect you are right about Poland/Nato/Us drift east. And the Russian drift west to some new ‘negotiated’ (by missile) border. Probably close to the olde Catholic-Orthodox lines — after all much of this Ukrainian (borderlands) deconstruction is a deep cultural meme of “Other” going back into centuries of identity and belief etc. Does it really matter in the larger picture? Russia has the Crimea and the choice southeast cuts. If they wanted Berlin or Paris they could take it. But why? Just go trade with China — one of the the new emerging global centres. The Western European peninsular is fast decaying into confusion and anarchy. As the other saying goes: “crossing the river by feeling the stones” … some under foot; some being thrown.
Many speculate that Ukraine will be partitioned….. Why? They further speculate that Russia will do the partitioning….. To gain what??
Most speculate that the Novorossians cannot turn the tide and defeat the putschists because their numbers are too few….. That the Novorossians cannot build recon and attack drones in numbers and use those loitering munitions to degrade the Putschist war machine….. based upon what??
Most of the punishers are on the front lines against their will…. The Houthis received plans from Iran and build their own attack drones and missiles despite a total blockade of their ports by the Saudi Coalition. With these they mount attacks against refineries, airports, and fighter aircraft on the tarmac at ranges exceeding 1000 km.
If the houthis can do this, the Novorossians most certainly can as well.
Only a few mention that the optimum time for hostilities is after Memorial Day. Only then are the crops planted, and the fields dry enough for mobile armoured formations to maneuver.
I propose a heterodox likelyhood…
1. Secretly, Russia is building and transferring, or is supervising construction of a large number of loitering munitions, to be operated by the Novorossians, or claimed to be operated by the Novorossians.
2. Russia is transferring precision standoff rockets, missiles, and cruise missiles to the Novorossians in large numbers, on the QT.
3. Russia will use the large number of NATO ships against them, by maneuvers of it’s much larger number of surface combatants.
4. Given the putschists attack, the counter attack will be to drive them west of the Denipr River, followed up by further attacks to add Odessa and the remaining Black Sea Coast oblasts to Novorossia.
5. Novorossia will declare itself the legitimate government of Ukraine,
6. Novorossia will dis-avow all the debt incurred by the Putschists.
INDY
Excellent example of finding a solution within a mess. I bet Russia will do something like this, which they’d also done with the Minsk agreement, which took worse options off the table, and was brilliant.
First time commenter long time reader… Have read through the seven threads over days and the comments are very thoughtful and have given much food for thought.
Certainly the USA is under severe stress from a century of being an Empire of Lies. The country, of which I’m native, is utterly bankrupt morally, spiritually and financially. The desperation felt by the elites is palpable. The foreign policy of the USA is to double-down on failure time and again. Do not put anything past the USA to pursue its entitled unitary superpower exceptionalism – nothing.
But I want to offer a glimmer of hope. After the Soleimani assassination, the United States in full-throttled threats swore to God and the Universe that if Iran even looked cross-eyed at the USA for the assassination, the USA had 50+ targets all ready to blow up and destroy Iran.
Well, Iran did strike with precision and from distance the military base in Iraq. Trump and the Generals went before the cameras and microphones ashen and shook and said Iran missed, and the USA would allow this small retaliation because no one was killed. We later learn about hundred+ US soldiers with head trauma from direct hits on bunkers.
The United States while dangerous, and even crazily administered by a political class that runs on bribery and graft; it is still the military to pull the trigger. The US military since Vietnam has taken on the likes of Grenada and Panama before the invasion of Iraq based upon lies. They have refused to go to war with Iran for Israel. Perhaps military to military diplomacy is the best course and take it out of the politicians’ hands who are clearly deranged.
Gottlieb — I agree with many of your points but let’s not forget that ‘our’ (USA) military — at least at the top levels — is now corrupted by big business — the Military Industrial Complex that Eisenhower warned us about in the 1960s. Our generals work for Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, not the American public. When they ‘retire’ from the military “our” generals immediately go to work in the “defense” industry — often as weapon’s lobbyists — with lucrative sinecures.
Look at our new ‘diverse’ Secretary of Defense, General Lloyd Austin, straight from his board position at Raytheon. (Normally, the position is supposed to go to a civilian.) The civilian ‘leadership’ is also corrupted by war profiteering as Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, for example, made additional fortunes off the invasion of Iraq through corporate stocks in Halliburton, etc.
When war breaks out in Ukraine, look for U.S. weapon company stocks to blast into the stratosphere — war is a goldmine for our oligarchs.
However, you are correct — there are lots of problems, lots of divisions here in the U.S. — and they are going to use top-notch wallpaper (on sale) to try to paper over all the ugly rotting facades — and keep the scams running as long as possible.
Perfectly stated. No matter how many times I have looked at it, Eisenhower’s speech is shocking. He foresaw all the coming problems with absolute clarity … in 1962.
The likelihood of a war is relatively high, however it can be avoided and I believe it will be. I don’t think that the central thing is a war between Ukraine and Russia, but a possible direct conflict between Russia and the US (or the West, or the rest of the world). If there’s a war it is quite possible to be more major than simply Russia kicking the small Ukraine’s butt, but needing to kick a much bigger butt. Just a medium war doesn’t seem as a likely outcome to me. It would be either very small to nothing, or a large war.
If a war is avoided for now (i.e., delayed), a lot of the inertia in the US and in Ukraine will be lost and they will need to rebuild the aggressive drive again. They will surely try again, but now is their best chance to start a war. If they miss it, the energy will wither away.
The prize for this struggle is Europe maybe, but I think that NS2 will be completed sooner or later. Russia is about to establish a different economic order and Germany is going to find a way to join it and run away from the sinking ship.
Information wars and manipulation lead to nowhere and provide no final win, unless there is something real to substantiate the experience. If the German economy goes down, they will not care a tiny bit about propaganda and ideology. NS2 will be built even if the price is a military conflict. Germany will fight for that eventually. They have seen the dark side and would not be willing to get there again.
“Uncle Shmuel is preparing a continental 9/11 PSYOP operation. Even worse is that I don’t see what/who/how anybody could stop it. Do you?”
The key here is the assumption of invulnerability, which you noted…
When you go to kill a snake, you don’t go for the tail; you go for the head. Similarly, there is no use in seeking solutions to the Ukrainian/Russian problem at that conflict-level. Most anyone who has read-up on the world situation can infer that there is a small group of people – say, a hundred – who set-up world ‘events’ for their own fun&profit. To have meaningful change, you have to set up a MAD situation (Mutual Assured Destruction) which includes this group.
What do the protagonists value the most? Their lives, of course, in the worst case. Before that: Their family chateau? Their best-in-the-world collection of _X_? Ancient family records? Their secret, well-stocked hidey-hole(s)? Etc.
The only way to back-off these types is to find-out – individually – what they value the most, and then put that at risk. If they know both that you are serious and also that you have the capability to carry-out the action, they will back-off. Not willingly, but because the cost to them (personally) outweighs the gain.
Always go for the head, not the tail…
Actually, to kill a snake you aim to break its back. Waste time going for its head and it is you that winds up in trouble.
What we are watching here is something far, far nastier than a snake. Snakes only attack if they think they are cornered. This thing attacks because it knows no other mode of being. It is evil, through and through.
Yes, a huge part of their seeming invulnerability is their anonymity, invisibility and mobility.
Having a bead on them would definitely change the equation.
“… their anonymity, invisibility and mobility.” … and their lifetime secure government pensions at taxpayer (Fed) expense. If accountability for their actions (or in actions) could be apportioned to their pension funds then we would have far greater responsible government.
The problem for the US it is losing geopolitical influence
Yes they can buy influence but that does not produce a quality result
This ultimately leads to a loss of trust and more loss of influence
In their bid to suppress Russia and any other competitor, through more and more irrational means
They have lost prestige, for an empire ( if one even considers it an empire), loss of prestige is a slippery slope
The Ukraine revolution and coup of 2014 was the 2nd Crimean war fought with subterfuge, Russia by annexing Crimea won that war, thus beginning a new multipolar world order.
The US, UK and EU are trying to unravel this new order , each I suspect with differing motives
Problem is to unravel this will take a shock, that they are ill equipped to deliver.
Three entities that ultimately are divided in purpose using an outdated concept Nato, to promote the appearance of unity.
Saker and others
I am sure you all have a much better handle on strategic imperatives than I do but is seems to me that the real issues are as always the choke points and border blockages for logistics etc.
For Russia these are the
1. Caspian sea (not an issue at the moment but one I am sure they think about
2. the Black sea which is more secure after reabsorbing Crimea but is still a threat. Russia will if war breaks choose to occupy as much as much as it can without undue cost in terms of military of complicated occupation of unwilling inhabitants.
3. The Bosphorus and the entry to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a player here and while I assume Russia will do everything it can to keep them sweet I see this as a conflict point, especially in NATO is actively involved in the conflict.
4. Eastern Mediterranean hence Syria and Lebanon
5. The Suez and rest of ME but i suspect not so much now
6. The Ukraine/Poland border – yes but appropriately targetted missiles on public display should keep these quiet
7. The Baltic- obviously so close to St Petersburg. I assume they are a worry strategically
8. Iceland and Greenland and to a lesser extent the three Scandinavian countries in the far North
9. Siberia and Vladivostok – obviouly always under threat
10. Relations with China- currently positive
11. The rest of the border lands back to the Caspian sea. Quiet now but always a worry.
Now it seems to me that the USA/NATO was actively putting pressure on all of these points in 2010 -2016 (Obama period) – with Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, Libya all essentially about encircling Russia, with an essentially military focus. Trade/oil were important but the military objective was the priority.
Under Trump, there was an effort to elevate trade and the economy a little above military imperatives, hence China not Russia was the chief bogeyman. While still keen on a little theft of oil in Syria, and trade sanctions direct military pressure on Russia was less intense.
With Biden and the Democrats back in full control the emphasis is back to military encirclement of Russia, hence this battle in Ukraine, the attempted undermining of Belorussia and NATO activism. My guess is that Russia will seek to secure its borders/supply routes in any of the listed areas, although i susect haow and when will be a matter of surprise.
Do you know anyone who fits this explanation?
Cipolla’s basic premise – the foundation of stupidity – is that a stupid person does things that hurt or disadvantage others… even if he doesn’t derive any benefit from his actions, and although he may even suffer himself from his own actions.
To reasonable people, it’s irrational to do things that hurt others without benefiting yourself in any way. As Cipolla explains, that’s the crux of stupidity…
He takes a distinctly “un-woke” view that human beings are either born stupid or not… It’s like blue eyes, six toes, or a particular type of blood.
According to Cipolla, you can’t learn yourself out of stupidity… raise yourself above it… or overcome it. And it has nothing to do with social class or profession.
Elections offer to all of them at once a magnificent opportunity to harm everybody else without gaining anything from their action. They do so by contributing to the maintenance of [the same level of stupidity] among those in power.
Solutions?
HA :D
I had always like to think it is possible, through serious efforts and patience, the un-woke can be ‘saved’
I like to believe the dark side can and will want to turn to the light, one fine day
now I think, this could be the new ‘virus’ theme going around… its incurable and maybe some even born with it…
HA :D
There are 2 school of ancient chinese philosophy –
one teaches – man is born good but corrupted by the environment
the other teaches – man is born evil and needs to be corrected by the environment
so are we, the humans, as the western biology paradigm classify us, are we simply animals, but with a self-promotion to a special category of, human-god?
or in all reality checked, more stupid then the animal?
War for profit? how smart is that?
I am increasingly moving to the camp Rus/multipolar world should act forcefully to get the job done, once and for all. There is always a way, the question is the price. My opinion to ‘Do you?’ is now increasingly ‘lets take the war to the SOBs’
be well be safe
I used to think if people would just raise their awareness these shoddy PSYOPS would seen as absolutely ridiculous. Now I realize how effective these things are on normally reasonable people. It really is embarrassing to say but these cheap psychological tricks are going to work even if it really isn’t as effective as it used to be. We really live in a post reality dystopia in the west already. Sorry to be pessimistic.
Saker,
As oldhippie pointed out the US shale industry is pretty much dead, which demonstrates the intellectual vacuum where brains should exist in German elites. So I see this as an attempt to kill German industry by snuffing out NS2. Kill competition while trying to revive American industry. There’s also the punitive reason too as you mentioned.
Can it be stopped? Perhaps an asymmetrical demonstration of RF clout could. Some kinetic targeting or EW potential that exceeds that of messaging. Like giving Syria and Hezb the ability to block any further cowardly use of Lebanese airspace to launch standoff missiles towards Damascus.
“We can give you more pain at our discretion should we wish to.”
To avoid war…
Putin gives a speech where he offers Europe two options:
(a) a detailed plan of de-escalation from both sides. EU can accommodate Russia in the Donbass (by demanding that Ukraine implements Minsk) and recognize Crimea in exchange for demilitarization of Kaliningrad and Transnistria. Followed by dropping sanctions, other steps to build good will, etc.
(b) nuclear command on highest alert. The slightest miscalculation will result in total destruction of Europe and much of the rest of the world.
He implores EU leaders to choose (a). Anyway, he doesn’t bother with the US at all, since this is a European matter.
“recognize Crimea in exchange for demilitarization of Kaliningrad and Transnistria.”
NOT AGREEMENT CAPABLE
Well, it looks as if Turkey will be on the line soon. It can under the Treaty of Montreux restrict naval vessels entering the Black Sea of States intent on war. I was wondering just how NATO was going to twist Erdogan’s arm.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-mulls-deploying-warships-black-sea-be-ready-respond-ukraine-crisis
https://tass.com/world/1275819
Pentagon does not confirm US plans to send warships to the Black Sea
It looks like a climbdown but it’s hard to tell if woke retards will change their minds tomorrow. And yes it presents Erdogan with a dilemma re the number of non-Baltic State capital ships.
From the Treaty of Montreux regarding the Dardanelles.( It can be argued that Non Black Sea powers have no intrinsic rights to access through the straits in war time especially if benign intent is not established to the satisfaction of Turkey.)
ARTICLE 13
The transit of vessels of war through the Straits shall be preceded by a notification given to the Turkish Government through the diplomatic channel. The normal period of notice shall be eight days; but it is desirable that in the case of non-Black Sea Powers this period should be increased to fifteen days. The notification shall specify the destination, name, type and number of the vessels, as also the date of entry for the outward passage and, if necessary, for the return journey. Any change of date shall be subject to three days’ notice.
Entry into the Straits for the outward passage shall take place within a period of five days from the date given in the original notification. After the expiry of this period, a new notification shall be given under the same conditions as for the original notification.
When effecting transit, the commander of the naval force shall, without being under any obligation to stop, communicate to a signal station at the entrance to the Dardanelles or the Bosphorus the exact composition of the force under his orders.
ARTICLE 14
The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces which may be in course of transit through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons, except in the cases provided for in Article 11 and in Annex III to the present Convention.
The forces specified in the preceding paragraph shall not, however, comprise more than nine vessels.
And article 19 ( last paragraph)
(2) Vessels of war belonging to non-Black Sea Powers shall not remain in the Black Sea more than twenty-one days, whatever be the object of their presence there.
Merchant vessels have different rules…vessels of war are required to have neutral intent in order to access inland seas or narrow straits. Access Rules for the high seas are different.
Perhaps someone with more legal expertise than I can clarify this further or correct me.
It may be that one additional “benefit” of this conflict is that it would give Turkey cause to close the straight, cutting off Russia’s supplies to Syria.
more on Black Sea specifics:
https://antibellum679354512.wordpress.com/2021/04/08/u-s-mulls-sending-more-warships-to-black-sea-to-send-message-to-russia/
Putin has mentioned that if attacked Russia will not only destroy the attackers but also the command and control centres that are directing the attack.
Does this mean that the military/political centres in mainland USA will also be attacked if Ukraine makes a move on Russia?
How will the US respond? With nuclear weapons? Does it have any other options?
It is possible to read that statement as a cancellation of the “war by proxies” for “plausible deniability” principle whenever a perceived attack concerns Russia proper.
Attacks might include sudden Western Propaganda supported uprising of one or the other minority group that would threaten the successful unification of those minorities under a Russian nationality and identity. Nuke the command center? Mmf..
Russia is already being attacked (80% informational) because of our (we, including Russians’) exposure to anything childish TV media, Google that is listening to anything politicians / corporate leaders communicate, Facebook, ..American Porn, Fast & Junk Food including FastFoodization of traditional local food, American Dream Propaganda.
All those exposures should be reduced to leave insignificant impact.. and in time turned into classroom teaching examples of “what better to avoid”.
Just like teachers would discuss the infamous “prophet cartoons” in an educational context, not advocate to display them all over the city.
I don’t agree nuclear weapons are the answer for this, rather EMP. Information war is a fight in which we can all help right now, no matter where you are , dreaming of of fearing an easy nucleair reset…., right here from your computer.
Don’t support the narrative controlling (social) media and data companies! Don’t send email even not to the Saker as long as Google is reading along. A matter of principle first even over efficiency.
To recognize this backdoor attack on all people globally is important,
it might confront us with a more complicated to fix issue than go for “to destroy or not to destroy everything” , but at least you can start today with yourself move from there onward.
Education and awareness to vote away by boycot these free media “treats” by using or demanding sensible alternatives is the way to prevent the unborn to come to earth set to be high fat, stupid and ignorant.
As a French ashamed of the puppet who has been empowered in France by the “Wise” of Davos + Israhell I totally agree with the brilliant and extremely depressing Saker analysis. So far nothing can stop the hubris of the neocons surrounding ol’Joe the hologram. Think about he openly said the Dems stole the election and that he’s going to make V. Poutine pay – for what he didn’t say and can’t as he’s senile -. What an opportunity for the Pentagon to let the NATO do the dirty job and consequently kill Nord Stream 2. I’m afraid their dream it’s going to turn into the worst of the nightmares and could generate major turmoils in the US.
Thank you Saker for trying to save PACE MUNDI
I may be putting two and two together and getting five, but should we not take Putin’s formal, public statements very seriously indeed? Putin’s style is the opposite of Erdogan’s, Trump’s or Blair’s: Putin tells the strictly literal truth, but leaves room for suggestio falsi and suppressio veri (until the Blairshchina, this was also the diplomatic style of the UK). Therefore, when Putin says Russia will never again fight an aggressor on her own territory, he is being deadly serious. We should always remember Putin’s older siblings who died during the siege of Leningrad – Putin came from a traumatised family, even if he was too young to have suffered directly. The chief aggressor in the Ukraine today is the United States, so a direct, conventional invasion of the USA by Russia becomes a possibility.
For over 100 years, there has been speculation about a connection between the Chukotka peninsula in Russia and the Seward peninsula in Alaska. According to Wikipedia, a rail tunnel would cost about double the Channel Tunnel between England and France. In the first decade of this century Putin viewed the project favourably, and even commented that some of the necessary surface connections were being built, as part of the development of Chukotka. There has also been Chinese interest in building a high speed rail link from the West Coast of the USA to China and Russia through a Bering Strait tunnel. Digging (or rather, boring) rail tunnels has become very much easier because of the advent of huge boring machines. Indeed, for many purposes, especially in snowy climes, or where rail links have to go through valuable real estate, as with HS1 through east London, tunnels are preferable to surface tracks.
Obviously, I’m not suggesting something as cracked as Napoleon’s projected invasion of England through a hand-hewn Channel tunnel of which the English were unaware. However, marshalling an invasion force in an area of intense construction activity, especially where new snow obliterated tracks and the area was remote from population centres, would be relatively easy. If a Russian or Russian/Chinese bridgehead was established in Alaska long enough for the tunnel to be bored (the Channel Tunnel took from 1988 to 1994, but was the first of its kind), then it is game over for the US. Perhaps, for the establishment of the bridgehead, ekranoplans, of which the Russians have several designs, would at last come into their own. Ekranoplans look like very large transport planes with implausibly small wings: they are surface effect planes which operate under 200m above land or water, have enormous carrying capacity, and were designed for opposed landing of troops and equipment, including tanks. They proved of limited value in the Caspian because of instability caused by waves, but would presumably come into their own over pack ice.
Wiganer
Buddy. No one is invading North America. Never.
No one wants to.
And no one wants to, not just because it’s impossible, but also because there is absolutely no reason.
North America has nothing the Russians or Chinese need or can’t source elsewhere.
Stop watching CGI hollyweird movies, spend more time reading Sakers actual analysis of Russian military capabilities.
Russia’s focus is defence.
Which necessitates some offence capacity restricted to their near abroad, so that they can better defend.
After you invade somewhere. You have to hold it.
Can you say Iraq or Afghanistan?
Holding these has bled the US to the anemic, depleted predicament it now finds itself.
Neither Russia or China are that stupid.
At its narrowest, the Bering Strait is 50 miles across, with a couple of islands in the middle. Why does Alaska not count as the “near abroad” for the Russians? The US doesn’t have unlimited numbers of ground troops, and it is difficult to see any US president prioritising vassal Ukraine over a state of the Homeland. A Russian counter-attack in Alaska, population 0.73 million, most of them urban office workers, would require US troops to be removed from the Ukraine. The population density in Alaska is much lower than in the Ukraine, and so civilian casualties from a Russian invasion would be much fewer in Alaska, and rarely involve Orthodox Slavs.
The ekranoplans actually exist, flew publicly in the 1980’s, and were presumably designed for use in the Caspian against Iran. My information about the wave problem they have comes from a senior researcher at an aerospace firm, but the guess about pack ice damping waves is my own.
They can’t invade the US for the same reasons that the US can’t win a land war in greater Asia. The supply lines would be too long and too vulnerable.
The Russian Railways website shows construction from Magadan to the main trans-Siberian routes before 2030, with further construction to the end of the Chutkotka peninsula after that (coloured as “strategically important”). Magadan (“Black Magadan”), at the top of the sea of Okhotsk, was a particularly ghastly part of the gulag: the weather is permanently overcast, and the zeks saw the sun on only a couple of days a year, according to Russian colleagues, who also told me a few years back that roads were already in place in the Magadanskaya Oblast’ and the Chukotka Okrug
So the supply lines for a Russian attack on Alaska will have many redundancies and so will not be vulnerable.
Also, the area suffering permanent heavy cloud reduces the usefulness of spy satellites
There is no rail link from Alaska to the lower 48 or indeed Canada, and only one highway (?).
This is one of the most insane ideas I have ever read. I am Canadian, I know cold weather. Not only would it take decades to build, if even possible, but someone would notice. Like American military generals and Alaskan militias. They could kill construction workers by the thousands.
If you had read my post before opining, you would have seen that I described opposed tunnel construction, as with Napoleon’s plan for the invasion of England, as “cracked”. Rather, I assumed a tunnel constructed once both sides of the Bering Strait at the crossing were under Russian control, rather like the Kerch narrows bridge between Crimea and southern Russia, constructed during ceasefires.
You do not seem to have taken in the ease with which rail tunnels can now be bored with tunnel boring machines, essentially large toothed rings which move slowly forward and lay down a lining as they travel. A TBM with a 50′ diameter is enough for a single track. The Channel Tunnel has three actual tunnels, two single track rail tunnels and a service tunnel accessible at intervals from either rail track.
The Russian military has ample experience of fighting in Arctic temperatures, and one presumes that in the 81 years since the Suomussalmi disaster in Arctic Finland, they now have diesel fuel which doesn’t freeze at -50 deg C.
Mod: Folks. Please stay on-topic. This discussion has veered onto a dead-end spur line. Thank-you.
my guess: the ukies will not attemp an ‘operation storm’ type assault. This will be played out over several years. Lots of drone type of attacks(for experimental purposes, for practice) There will be ukie advances and withdrawals, with lots and lots of artillery and short range missile volleys. This will keep Russia busy and endlessly pre-occupied every which way especially with intelligence resources. At the same time new wedges will be applied between Russia and her allies especially Belarus, steppe nations as well as Iran(more color revolution type attempts). Even more sanctions will be applied ever so slowly. All this to try to squeaze out over the next couple of years of who of importance can be bought off for a reasonable price, with in Russia and with in her allies. Western news outlets will love this endless charade, very much needed by them since Trumps departure. This is the anglo, franco, dutch way to do things(mh-17 anyone?, expect more of the same). This will forcibly bind the rest of ukies together( by war time law). With nuclear weapons available, no one of the great powers will fight each other directly, it won’t happen this time around, probably won’t happen until israel is threatened with annihalation. Of course, keeping status quo going on in Syria is ideal. The anglos et al. prefer this minor turmoil for the forseable future with similar shenanigans in the sino sphere as well. The anglosphere is collapsing but it shall be drawn out.
Hold tight my saker friends, make good relationships, grow some food, get healthy, stay fit. Sometimes when a giant falls some things may get bumped and bruised on the way down. Samo Sloga Srbina Spasava( only unity saves serbia, I would add -only unity will save the good among us) Be good my brethren.
Dear Saker,
I will be extremely annoyed if this existential threat to all life on earth turned out to be the product of a senile old man trying to protect his useless idiot son.
https://www.rt.com/usa/520524-hunter-biden-laptop-authentic/
“Hunter Biden’s laptop was his all along, claims Daily Mail’s forensic expert, verifying drugs, prostitution and porn pics”
“Joe Biden himself dismissed the laptop story as “debunked” and “garbage,” his campaign and party claimed it was fabricated by Russia…”
“The operating system timestamps appear to be authentic, and no evidence was found to suggest that the timestamps or data were altered or manufactured.”
Also found on the laptop are “texts from Hunter begging his father to run for office to give the younger Biden a “chance at redemption.””
Also found is plentiful evidence of Biden’s dodgy dealings with corrupt Maidan orcs on behalf of said idiot son.
A new round of sanctions was going to be dished out based on the “Russia fabricated it to interfere in the 2020 election” narrative.
So, it might be worth it to ask Margarita Simonyan to run a story questioning if Joe Dementia is risking armageddon to distract attention from his imbecile son, as an attempt at stopping the runaway train.
You know after reading the Saker’s opinion and reading all of the comments I have no freakin’ idea what Russia, Novorussia, Ukronazis nor the US is going to do. When the Ukrainians launched the previous wars who would have thought they would have been cualdronized. War has a tendency to surprise its initiators with unintended consequences. And on top of this the Biden strategists (if you can call them this) are not the sharpest pencils in the factory. Let me tell you they’re no George Kennan! After thinking this through and after a few glasses of wine I believe, since time is on the side of Russia, that Russia would be happy to keep this a frozen conflict. So they will probably be as minimalist as possible which at the very least will be to protect the Donbass but nothing more if possible. They will probably do as little as possible but escalate if the facts on the ground demand it. I think they will be reactive instead of initiating any adventures. If Russia can enforce a status quo ante and save NS2 then they will have accomplished a small miracle. Russia, like China, playing the long game theory, knows that it’s important to keep Germany as an industrial nation. They don’t want to do anything that would help the German Green freaks in their drive to de-industrialize Germany. This is make or break for the Ukrainian regime and their US backers so all Novorussia has to do is survive the upcoming onslaught and keep the conflict frozen.
I know all of us would like to smash the Nazis and free as much as Ukraine as possible, but not at the expense at de-industrializing Germany. Ukraine’s freedom will come eventually but we need to keep things in perspective. We need to keep Germany as an industrial power house that will get closer to both Russia and China. I don’t care what happens to the rest of Europe. Even France is not as important as Germany to both Russia and China. We need to make sure that Nord Stream 2 gets completed. Once it’s completed and the gas flows, the US will have lost strategically and there will be nothing the US can do to stop the gas. It will be game over. This is why the US is desperate. To repeat all Russia has to do is keep the status quo and to be minimalist.
“We need to make sure that Nord Stream 2 gets completed. Once it’s completed and the gas flows, the US will have lost strategically and there will be nothing the US can do to stop the gas. It will be game over. ”
What do you think NS1 has been doing for the last decade? Stop fixating on a capacity upgrade option that probably has no direct impact on German industry for another 5-10 years.
The US/Nato have core existential issues they need to distract from. Russia provides a convenient baiting option. Biden is basically continuing all of Trump’s policy options. Trump/Biden/Obama etc are just State-elected jockies on the 4-year horse race of mass distraction. The system is run by industry lobbyists.
However, I do agrtee with your “To repeat all Russia has to do is keep the status quo and to be minimalist.” Why fix what ain’t broken (from certain points of view)? US/Nato shoelaces are tied, not Russia’s.
I see a lot of people looking forward to Putin’s April 21st speech.Thinking he is going to “lay done the law” to the US,EU,and especially the Ukrainians.Maybe he will,I hope so,he needs too.But I don’t count on that.I’ve been disappointed too many times in the past.So don’t get your hopes up.And just be happy if it works that way.
More likely that a formal Russia-China defense treaty will be made public. I’d love if that would include Iran, but I doubt it.
Also he will surely reiterate the red lines in no uncertain terms, possibly with regards to China, too.
I’d love if they would actually call on the US to gtfo where they don’t belong, but the time isn’t right for that.
Does anyone really believe that if the Russians feel compelled to intervene directly in Ukraine, that they will not do so decisively? Does anyone really believe that the Russians will not move boldly to forestall the deployment of NATO units into Western Ukraine? More importantly, is there anyone who really thinks that in the very first moments of a Russian major Russian offensive, they will not obliterate the US “Aegis Ashore” installations in Poland and Romania along with the associated missile launchers?
Yes, I know that there are, but what if they are wrong?
I think Russia should bring this matter to UN security council. Then openly get the view of chairing countries and try it best to handle this according to guide lines provided by UN and try to negotiate a some kind of peace process . Then I think it would be difficult for US or Ukraine to begin a preemptive attack.
Here’s a series of unpopular opinions.
1. There will be no war.
2. The border skirmishes that will be treated here as war will be overblown. Conflict is the proper term, just it has been since day 1. Armenia and Azerbaijan had a real war, Novorussia and Ukraine had way less intensity conflict that I wouldn’t call war. This time it will be even in lesser scope.
3. Russia will not do anything too overt. There will be “show of force” actions and troop movements and many will fight in the Donbass as volunteers which will be overblown – but basically AZ empire will do what it wants, and Russia (for reasons) will again be all talk of peace, and Minsk, and see opportunities go by.
4. The contact lines will not change in any meaningful way. Russia will put Novorussia on a leash and will be cucked into Minsk agreements and will fall again for the dog and pony show called agreements with the west.
5. The conflict will not really change anything on the ground. If Ukraine makes any meager gains those will be kept, so will any possible gains by Novorussia – but those territories will be a hot potato for Russia vis-à-vis the west.
6. Most important. Contrary to what many commentators think as possible – there is nothing – absolutely nothing that will make western Europe become more fond of Russia. Not Italy or Hungary. The phobia is too engrained in all of them. These are all delusional and degenerate cuck vassals, if you watched GOT then the character “Reek” is the best representative of the European cucks. Really no situation exists, even (purely hypothetical) open aggression on Russia with nukes – and Russia prevails and kicks AZE out of EU completely – well even then they will talk bad of Russia and demand of her what they never dared ask of their masters last 70 years.
Right. German elites shall never side with Russia. Something like that is unimaginable for them.
I just wonder what will be going on in the minds of those wretched draftees in the Ukrainian army. They must know that they are going to an almost certain death. And why should they fight for the wretched regime in Kiev, now the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe? In fact they will not be fighting the Kiev regime but expected to fight for a foreign power, no guess who.
I guess much of it is just following menial orders, not too much time to think. But then again, I think there won’t be much dying (more than half a percent from beginning numbers). I really don’t think it goes into full out war. If escalation happens Russia will show restraint and Ukraine and Novorussia will exchange fire at higher rates. Then another 5 ear lull.
I still do not understand how anything less than Russian tanks occupying Kiev could change the perception of Russia.
The Russian government should be creative. Certainly part of the country will feel liberated if the Ukranian army loses the power to control the antropological entity known as Novorussia. Celebrations in the streets, and stuff like that, would go a long way.
There is also something that has deeply changed. Even if the EU leadership shuts down on the RF, it will not on China. They – do not confuse the simpletons in power with the population, that would be to take modern democracies too seriously – simply cannot do it.
This means that the Cold War duality is not repeatable.
The who, what and how this will be stopped is this IMHO:
Humans who are in touch with truth, spiritual truth, on any level are repelled by the state of lies, hubris and greed exhibited in ever more blatant and perverse ways by the west and their governments.
People are moving from support of this. When profanity of this magnitude portends to rule the earth, nature will recede from it with a cleansing of herself. Russia has been in the process of cleansing herself on many levels, however it is not complete, but is ongoing. The west has barely begun this process to their own detriment. But it will continue until complete. Christ has risen!
Pushilin links escalation to Kiev’s attempt to withdraw from Minsk-2
APRIL 07, 2021 17:36 // UPDATED: APRIL 07, 2021 17:36
Donetsk, Apr 7 – DAN. Ukraine has turned the talks on Donbass into a bacchanalia, DPR Head Denis Pushilin said at his press conference.
“It has become like a bacchanalia. Ukraine has blocked everything. It is worth reminding though that the Minsk Agreements stopped a large-scale military action. The Agreements have proved to be an important element of the establishment of the Republics. After hostilities ceased we got an opportunity to build the statehood,” he said.
The new escalation is due to Kiev’s attempts to withdraw from the Minsk Agreements, Pushilin said.
“It is unreasonable for us to withdraw from Minsk now,” Pushilin said. “We have never refused to fulfill them, not a single time.”
“If Ukraine fails to fulfill them, we know what to do. But we can’t yet speak about it.”
The Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, approved by the Contact Group in 2015, envisions a constitutional reform in Ukraine which must result in deep decentralisation. The special status of Donbass is a key principle of the political part of the Agreements. Kiev also must coordinate all of its decisions with DPR and LPR representatives.*ot
Thank You as always Saker for your Insights and Community.
As an (hopefully soon former) American living in Austria and Bavaria for the last 2 1/2 years, I am surprised at the difference in the American vs European societies regarding all the current issues of civilization we face. The Europeans are by no means rabid Liberals and LQTG+ brainwashed zombies. I have had much contact with people between 25-50, and on the surface they agree with the Ideals of a Classical Liberalism, ie we should all be tolerant of each other and think and act towards the benefit of All in general, but the Truth is they are realist. They do not immigrants in their communities, they are for Tradttionall Values, and generally striving to repair the damage done to the Family unit. Everyone has been burned by modern Liberalism and has instictively reacted to an innate Traditional Eurpean, and White values. (Yes, there is a long way to go but I am hopeful in seeing so many people I thought would be rabid Liberals behind closed doors are not) And while they do not want to talk about politics and religion, when they do they are very well informed, see the corruption and hypocrisy in the USA and the EU. Generally everyone knows something is wrong, are afraid of their goverments, but governments at the local level seem to support the people rather than the central government.
…. So if a war in Ukraine starts, would an option, perhaps a risky one, is for China to invade Tawain, the Pro-Syrian forces in Syria (and Iraq) make direct attacks and offense against the numerous American bases and convoys in Syria …. putting som much pressure on the USSA indirectly, that the USSA will either have to start WWIII or backdown and concede the loss. Cowards usually backdown once their bluff is called or real conflict begins. …. and the risk being of course Pres. Harris decides to use ‘only limited tactical nkes’ and then WWIII begins …