by “Y”
Transcarpathia
ATO
Volunteers from the Tachyiv district have shipped ~ 2.5 tons of supplies to the front. These supplies intended for Aidar, the 128th Brigade and the 24th Brigade are described as ‘humanitarian aid’, and consist mainly of winter clothing along with a few specialist items such as night vision imaging devices. Some have raised concerns over these latter items as they appear to have been bought at 100,000 UAH, whereas the typical price is about 55,000 UAH. A group of supporters in the Vynograd area collected 68,000 UAH on behalf of Transcarpathian troops.. A group of Ukrainians in Austria, ‘UKROP Austria’ donated a van, which was repaired locally in Transcarpathia and used to transport supplies as far as Kiev. There it was supposed to be upgraded to a first aid vehicle with the provision of medical equipment.
Aidar have established a training base in the mountain village of Dymka in the Volovets district. This was originally a demonstrator base formed by Aidar members on their return from front. The new 4 hectare base is currently funded by donations. It has provided 3-4 weeks training for about 50 recruits who then go on to the front.
A small number of individuals have been reported wounded, one from Aidar, one from the 95th Brigade and several others. The action took place in the town of Shchastya 18 km north of Lugansk. An unspecified number of individuals from the 128th Mountain Infantry Brigade based in Transcarpathia were wounded when the unit came under fire in action at Debaltsevo. The Ukraine regime states that 2500 people are officially missing or held prisoner in the east. They state that 822 have been released so far in prisoner exchanges.
Rotation of the police units continues. On 20 October, 56 members of the ‘Green Berets’ border guard detachment returned from the front. There are still 170 at the front due for rotation. One Transcarpathian border police detachment is based around Artemovsk, manning block posts on the roads around and especially leading to Debaltsevo. This is an area of conflict ~ 40 km south east of Artemovsk. Small numbers of volunteers still move to and from the front. A group of four members of the Carpathian Sich (a founder group of the Pravy Sektor block) went to the front, whilst five ethnic Hungarians returned to their villages in Transcarpathia.
The Ukrainian internal committee investigating the Ilovaisk disaster have absolved the troops of the Prykarpattya battalion of all responsibility, laying the blame totally on the actions of Geletey and Murzenko.
Economy
Recently released figures indicate that the average monthly salary in Transcarpathia is 2731 UAH (~ 210$). The unemployment rate is said to be an incredibly low 1.3%.
The Hryvnia exchange rate is still stable at about 12.95 UAH to the USD. However, economic experts suggest the exchange rate is being held at this level until after the election when it may drop 20-30% to 17-18 or even 20 UAH/USD.
Energy
Weather reports predict the first snows of the winter will fall this week in the higher parts of Transcarpathia.
As ever, the gas problem is central. The Ukraine regime is looking at various methods of reducing gas demand, and is considering incentive plans to reduce consumption, to promote biodiesel as an alternative, to encourage energy conservation and tariff changes to force consumers to reduce the amount of gas used.
Ukraine has been importing gas via the reverse flow network in Transcarpathia, pumping the gas into underground storage in anticipation of high winter demand. The gas comes largely from Slovakia, with some from Poland. There are suggestions that the Ukrainian and Slovakian gas transport companies, Naftogas and Eustream may seek to work closely together or even merge. The head of Naftogas has called on Slovakia to end its contract with Gazprom, and renegotiate to allow for reverse flow, which is currently not allowed according to Gazprom. The Slovakian gas company plans to reduce the amount of gas it buys from Gazprom by 10-15%, and expects to pay a lower price. This is presumably some kind of wishful starting point for any new contract with Gazprom. In a statement that is unbelievably detached from reality, Marecek, the head of Slovakia’s Eustream states that the European Union must oppose the construction of South Stream otherwise that would mean it does not recognise Ukraine as a reliable supplier of gas. The more obvious threat that it poses to Eustream’s profits is not mentioned.
More realistically, the Prime Minister of Slovakia notes that Ukraine wants to pass the costs of its gas delivery and debts on to EU. He quite reasonably states that the world does not work that way. Even the President of Romania, who is trying to put the squeeze Moldova and the PMR, notes the problem. He states that “Romania is not against assisting Ukraine in payment of debts, but Ukraine should understand that it is a big country that itself needs to find solutions for survival, not asking all the time for money.” Meanwhile in La-la land, Yatsenyuk claims that the Ukraine gas problem can only be solved once the reverse gas flow issue has been clarified. He presumably sees that Russia is no longer prepared to be a sucker, and is hoping to pass the buk over to the EU instead. In response, Barosso has stated that the EU can provide a maximum $1 billion bridge loan to cover part of the costs. The Ukraine gas disaster has clearly become the parcel in a game of ‘pass the parcel’, with no one wanting to be caught with it once the music stops.
Following the self-inflicted wound caused by destruction of coal mines in the east, Ukraine has resorted to importing coal from South Africa. I have seen no details of costings so far but I do hope everyone involved in the supply chain gets cash up front.
Politics
The big news politically is the election to be held on 26 October. This arose after parliament was dissolved following a failure to agree on the austerity measures necessary for the IMF loans and in preparation for EU association. The opposing parties have been neutralised by various means, primarily lustration.
One major event in Uzhgorod was the appearance of Dmitry Yarosh, the leader of Pravy Sektor at an extended Q&A session (links to videos are given in Resources). He caused a stir by appearing with an armed guard, who stationed themselves at doorways. He claimed this was in response to comments from the SBU that there would be actions against him. Of course, nothing untoward happened, so this becomes part of the normalisation process by which he appears in public surrounded by his praetorian guard. The Q&A was extended, ~30 minutes, but there was one particularly interesting comment. He stated that Crimea will return to Ukraine at some stage. He claims Putin has not taken the Crimean Tartars into account. Yarosh states that they can become a driving force of revolution. This is exactly what happened to Pravy Sektor. Members were trained in Poland and led the violence at the Maidan. To me, this suggests he is, and perhaps always has been, closely connected to those behind the Ukraine regime change. He is certainly a more marketable front for Pravy Sektor than the odious Sashko Bily (alias of Oleksandr Muzychko) who died in mysterious circumstances earlier in the year.
Legislation allowing troops at the front to vote failed to pass. However, they were allowed to vote via a loophole in which they were treated as immigrants. A rumour that males voting would be conscripted turned out to be just a rumour.
As hinted in a previous report, Orban’s perceived rapprochement with Russia has not pleased the US. Sanctions have been imposed against six Hungarian officials, described as members of the Orban government or civil servants. These individuals are denied entry to the US, supposedly because of personal corruption. Retaliation for the rapprochement with Russia, or investigation of US companies tax affairs are more likely explanations.
Political experts predicted voter turnout in Transcarpathia would be less than 60%, typically around 50% for this kind of election. Polling stations nominally opened at 9 am and by 4 pm, the turnout in the five Transcarpathian districts varied from about 25% to nearly 48%, with an average of about 34%. Throughout the country, the turnout was greater in the west than in the east. The average for the eight oblasts forming west Ukraine was around 46% whilst it was only around 33% in the five eastern oblasts including Donetsk and Lugansk. Over all 196 electoral districts the turnout was highest in Kiev and lowest in Donetsk at about 26%. People in the areas of Donetsk and Lugansk east of the demarcation line were not taking part in the vote. Exit polls gave 24% of the vote to ‘Bloc Poroshenko’, 21% to the ‘Popular Front’ (Yatsenyuk), ‘Self Help’ (deputy leader Semen Semnchenko) with 13%, ‘Opposition Bloc’ (Boyko) with 8%, ‘Radical Party’ (Lyashko) with 7%, ‘Svoboda’ (Tyagnybok) with 6% and ‘Batkivshchyna’ (Tymoshenko) with 6%. Pravy Sektor gained about 2.4% of votes at exit polls. Of these seven crossing the 6% threshold, six are pro-Europe/America and one (Opposition Bloc) is possibly ‘pro-Russian’. These are results obviously subject to revision with the actual and final count of votes. The ultimate power structure will be governed by the allegiance of the large number of ‘self identified’ candidates who probably align with Pravy Sektor or Svoboda, as half the seats come from party blocs and half from individuals.
An unknown number of those voting chose to invalidate their votes, voting for Putin, Novorossia, DNR and LNR for example. Their exit poll statements are not noted.
The last word on the election lies with the inimitable Ukrainian journalist, Anatoly Sharii and his response to a program describbing voter turnout on Kolomoisky’s TV channel …. 99.90%!
Propaganda
The linked map claiming to show activity in the east represents the propaganda the average Ukrainian is exposed to. It is mainly propaganda by omission. The map shows no weapons west of the demarcation line, only to the east and in Russia. Hence the claim that all killing and damage is the result of RUssia and the pro-Russian forces.
The election day propaganda was not unexpected. Firstly, the SBU detained two men in Transcarpathia, one described as Russian, the other as ‘from Crimea’. They were described as a ‘sabotage group’ in the press. They were actually tourists visiting local residents. The SBU released them without charge and with little fanfare.
Secondly, Poroshenko paid a flying visit to Kramatorsk, purportedly to verify the voting process in person and to ‘protect the rights of troops to vote’. It didn’t seem to do him much good at the end of the day.
Separatism
Separatism in Transcarpathia appears to have been heavily clamped down by the SBU and possibly local Pravy Sektor members. However, in Lviv, the European Galician Assembly has intensified its activities. It skirts away from explicit separatism, but states that it would be happy to get into the EU without Ukraine. Its immediate aims are to unite at least three areas of Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. The stated goal of the organisation is to return Galicia to Europe. It is another matter as to whether Europe would be really happy to have a hard-core Galician state as a member.
Resources
Yarosh Q&A video links:
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 1
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 2
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 3
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 4
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 5
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 6
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 7
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 8
Yarosh in Uzhgorod 9
Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia
Economy
The electrical machinery plant Electromash has been accredited by Gazprom as a source of replacement pump motors needed for the renovation of the Gazprom pipeline network.
The PMR is hoping to transform its current tax system into a classical tax system, with taxation of income, the property of legal entities and the imposition of a value-added tax. The reform is seen as part of the solution to the problem of the budget deficit which exceeds 40%. This arises partly from the economic blockade imposed by Moldova and Ukraine with consequent loss of sales.
Energy
The gas contract involving Moldova and Gazprom is to be renegotiated early next year. In spite on Moldova’s actions against PMR, it expects a price cut for gas supply next year. The repayment of historic gas debts totally $23 million is also part of the negotiation.
Politics
The attempts to coerce PMR away from Russia into Moldova continue. The possibility of Moldova uniting with Romania or joining NATO has led Lavrov to remind everyone about the context for the status negotiations. He notes that ‘all agreed that if Moldova loses its sovereignty and gets annexed by another country, or if Moldova changes its military-political non-bloc status, the people of Transnistria have the right to decide their future independently’ This is a warning that Russia may recognise Transnistria should either of these events occur. He also stated the he hoped Moldova would not interfere with the economic affairs of PMR. The Memorandum of 1997 established the right to freedom of economic activity, which means unimpeded trade and investment ties with Russia and Europe. Lavrov also claims the US has usurped the position of head of OSCE mission, the mediation role in the ‘5+2’ talks. He states that ‘one American goes, another American comes in’.
Ukraine has joined the EU in placing visa restrictions for several former leaders of PMR. Lavrov and the PMR government consider this an act of intimidation and a restriction on free travel. Ukraine is part of ‘5+2’ group trying to resolve the status issue. Its role is supposed to be that of guarantor, along with Russia, the OSCE is supposed to be a mediator, whilst the EU and the US are supposedly mere observers.
Recently. the Moldovan constitutional court has declared as unconstitutional any party whose goal is not European integration. Lavrov has rightly described this as outrageous and undemocratic. This outcome in the Moldovan court is not surprising given that six of the seven judges in the constitutional court are citizens of Romania.
In recent negotiations with PMR about the free trade zone, Luke Devine, the EU negotiator issued an ultimatum that “We must bear in mind that in late 2015, when the Transnistrian authorities decide not to apply the DCFTA (deep and comprehensive free trade agreement), Transnistria will lose preferences with largest trading partner. So Tiraspol need to decide whether to follow its policies on the economic interests of the population and business, or to stand in the ideological position”. Gagauzia is in a similar position. The EU Free Trade Zones are subject to variation when convenient. Moldova currently has quota allowing it to export 80,000 tons of apples into EU free of duty. The European FTA is clearly a means of making weaker smaller countries chose between the EU and the Customs Union. This in turn is a means of reducing the potential for free trade with Russia. European integration has clearly been co-opted by US-UK interests into a mechanism for reducing the influence of Russia.
In the forthcoming Moldovan elections, workers abroad have the right to vote. Moldova is reducing the number of voting stations in Russia. There are about 500,000 Moldovans working in Russia with 15 polling stations in contrast to Italy where 250,000 Moldovan migrants have access to 25 stations. The Moldovan government plans to reduce the number of stations in Russia from 15 to 5, with 2 in St. Petersburg and 3 in Moscow. This will make it difficult for Moldovans in Russia, possibly perceived to be pro-Russia, from voting.
Propaganda
Poroshenko has banned the use of the term ‘TMR’ (Transnistrian Moldovan Republic). He claims there is only the Transnistrian section of the Ukraine / Moldova border. This really does not fit in with Ukraine’s supposed role as guarantor in the ‘5+2’ negotiations over the status of PMR.
Romania has stated it needs to increase its presence in Gagauzia, as the prolonged exposure to Russian TV and media gives a false impression of Europe. Such control, of course, has nothing to do with maintaining and extending Romanian ownership and control of the media.
Sanctions
Russia has included meats products from Moldova in its list of sanctions. The claim is that they do not meet Russian safety standards and often include inaccurate veterinary certificates. The free trade agreement with Moldova was terminated earlier in the year, so the zero rate of duty on imports of agricultural products was abolished. Moldova regards these actions as political rather than legitimate economic responses.
Separatism
Gagauzia is considering establishing a private broadcasting council to allow it to control media relay irrespective of Chisinau. The Moldovan government wants to reduce the transmission of Russian media as part of the program of mandating European integration.
Good place to lay this. Is this a typo?
What to make of Mr. Lavrov”s statement:
Moscow to recognize results of elections in Luhansk, Donetsk People’s Republics
MOSCOW, October 28. /TASS/.
Russia hopes elections in the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk Republics will finally be held and will recognize their results,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with the LifeNews television channel and the Izvestia newspaper.
“Elections due to be held in the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics on November 2 will be very important from the point of view of the legitimization of power,” he said. “We think this is one of the most important aspects of the Minsk agreements.”
“We hope the elections will be held as it was agreed,” he stressed. “And we are sure to recognize their results. We hope the expression of people’s will will be free and no one from outside will try to frustrate it.
~ ~ ~ ~
Hmmmm.
Thanks for the sitrep. Thanks to you I have learned how little I know about Eastern Europe. I live in the EU, but I have never heard of Gagauzia before. It is autonomous, but is it still a part of Romania? Do they have EU passports in Gagauzia? Can they communicate with Brussels in their own language or in Russian? What is the currency?
I am probably not the only ignorant reader of this blog. Some of us have much to learn.
“Ukraine has joined the EU in placing visa restrictions for several former leaders of PMR.”
“Sanctions have been imposed against six Hungarian officials, described as members of the Orban government or civil servants.”
Troubling and not reported in my country. No good comes from it.
A little bit off topic, but at the same time connections to our todays history
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/27/us/in-cold-war-us-spy-agencies-used-1000-nazis.html?emc=edit_th_20141027&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=39772990
Thank you for the news from Transcarpathia. But where is “Tachyiv” supposed to be? Typo for Рахів?
Anonymous, Wikipedia is an excellent first source for background. Unlike random websites, it has a format which ensures history, politics and state organisation are all covered, and it is usually fairly balanced because of the Wiki “neutral point of view” policy. That mean controversial items get argued out by their proponents and a balanced result gets printed. (If they keep reverting to their biased versions, the admins can lock the page). They also enforce giving links for everything, so it’s a great resource for further reading.
I consider myself Hungarian, but my 16 great great grandparents were 12 different “nationalities”. That’s normal there. This is my brief view:
Generally in the past, the major mode of transport for most people was walking. So it was normal to never set foot outside your own village. People in border areas might be a bit bilingual, or even inter-marry. Throughout central and eastern Europe, various empires owned large territories with dozens of ethnic groups in them. The boundaries kept hanging. This encouraged more mixing of the people. In some areas, in the last century, 4 generations of the same family, in the same village, may have counted as 4 different “nationalities” as the borders kept changing over their heads. In the past 50 years or so, they have for the first time had a chance to “be themselves” but their territories now include outsiders, who then become further (and smaller) minorities in those new statelets. We can’t end up splitting the world into independent villages, so possibly the best solution is federated states, where each ethnic-based State has decent provision for being fair to their minorities.
The march of Nazism [ read Natoists ]
————————————–
Now Germany has got its own “Right Sector” (known for its disturbances in Kiev in winter 2013/2014): a united group of football fans expressing ultra-radical right views.
Rainer Wendt, Head of the German Police Union, said that usually such fans consider each other as enemies but now they formed a temporary union and announced that they would struggle against Salaphites. The first marches of German “Right Sector” took place on October 26 in Cologne where they chose Salaphits from HoGeSa (mostly foreigners) as their opponents and 13 policemen (“Berkut”?) suffered as a result of those marches.
“This can happen not only in Berlin, Hamburg or Cologne. It can happen in all the cities”, said Wendt, “Trade Union God” of German Policy, who believes that active protests will grow.
German “Right Sector”, the same as its Ukrainian forerunner, actively incorporates other groups: bikers (“Automaidan”?) have already joined “fans” in Cologne. As a result, at least 4,000 people took part in confrontation with police, though number of fans didn’t exceed 1,500 people.
It should be noted that in the first half of this year we could foresee that success of the “Right Sector” in overthrow of Kiev’s legal authorities would have legs and so called “maidanization” is able to have roaring success all over the European continent. We should also bear in mind that soon after the triumph over his political opponents Dmitry Yarosh (the leader of the “Right Sector” in Kiev and now a new deputy of Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada) announced that the time was ripe to prepare and start war with Russia. Events in Crimea and Donbass followed few weeks later. We can only wonder about which country will be chosen as a foreign enemy of the German “Right Sector”. Anyway, Germany doesn’t have common borders with Russia, at least for now.
These Transcarpathia and Transnistria Sitreps are utterly useless for me.
Sorry, not everybody knows the situation there, so I would welcome it if you wrote an overview about who’s who, and what’s going on.
who lives in Transcarpathia and who are they allied with. Hungarians? Russians? Ukrainians? I have no Idea….
Thanks
Hungarian Political Vocabulary (Fidesz/Orban, Jobbik)
Liberal Democracy = European Values (aka: Anglo-American
culture), Cultural Marxism, Progressivism-Imperialism
Civil Society = Foreign owned and run: NGOs, Think
Tanks, Advertising and PR firms, Lobbies
Free/Independent Press/Media/Internet = Foreign owned media
Free Capital Flows = Foreigners buying up the land
Free Labor Flows = Open Immigration of foreigners
Diversity = Foreign concepts of racial, ethnic, religious
divisions based on foreigners experiences elsewhere, not
‘here’
Pluralism = Gridlock, favoring foreign mediation, creation
of blocs, and ‘granularization’ of politics to the point of
national failure
Human Rights = (see Liberal Democracy)
Color Revolution: = Foreigners’ co-optation of the 1848 revolution’s
symbolic capital
Pro-Democracy Activists = Foreigners employed by the US
State Department and the CIA
European = Imperial faux ethnicity or race, pseudo-people
(The last is mine)
Thank you for your efforts in the Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia sitreps. I suspect that this is the next area where the bull crap will hit the wind machine.
Thank you for the sitrep in Transnistria!
I am wondering how the situation will develop there. It is interesting to see how two great centers of civilization are vying for influence and power and are fighting for the hearts and minds of nations.
It is a good thing when such clashes remain peaceful. Too rarely, unfortunately…
WalterSobchak said…
“These Transcarpathia and Transnistria Sitreps are utterly useless for me.
Sorry, not everybody knows the situation there, so I would welcome it if you wrote an overview about who’s who, and what’s going on.
who lives in Transcarpathia and who are they allied with. Hungarians? Russians? Ukrainians? I have no Idea….”
Part 1
Rusyns,the majority in Transcarpathia are a sub-Russian group related to “Ukrainians”.In fact Ukrainians consider them as their people.They speak a dialect of West Russian close to the Ukrainian dialect.And many have gone over to speaking Ukrainian.Historically while most of West Ukraine was under Poland for long periods.That area was ruled by Hungary instead.For several centuries,unlike West Ukraine,they have been pro-Russian.After WW2 they firmly became a part of Ukraine and the USSR.With the Independence of Ukraine that area became another Oblast (province) of Ukraine.They were promised autonomy,but Ukraine broke that promise.And some of those people have hoped for that since.While many are loyal to the idea of a Ukraine,and some serve the junta now.There are also many that hate the junta and want at least autonomy or some even separation.That area had the lowest vote totals in West Ukraine in the current elections.The southwestern part of the Oblast has a very large Hungarian minority,that seeks minority rights.Which so far Ukraine refuses to give them.
Uncle Bob
Part 2.
Moldova,used to be called Bessarabia.And was a football for several Empires over the centuries.It was gained by Russia during the early 19th century.After WW1 it was taken by Romania.And in 1940 by the USSR.They added an area to it,Transnistria,that had been Russian before.Gave the Southern areas to Ukraine.And called the rest Moldova.
The people are mixed and heavily intermarry.The “Moldovans” are a branch of Romanians.While there are large Russian and Ukrainian minorities.Especially in the former Russian/Ukrainian Transnistria.But also in the other town areas of Moldova.The Gagauzia area is inhabited mainly by a people of that name and Turkic descent.But heavily mixed in blood with their neighbors and mostly Christian.They have a tradition of being pro-Russian,and not trusting the Romanian/Moldovans.When Moldova got Independence Transnistria wanted out of that.And Moldova invaded the area to force its return.Russian troops aided Transnistria to stop the war.And the area is undecided as to what they will do.The majority want to reunite with Russia.But Ukraine is in the way to there being a common border.The best solution would be to unite with Ukraine.But no one wants to be ruled by today’s neo-nazis in Ukraine.Romania lusts to regain Moldova and the Transnistria region.But that is a problem as Transnistria and Gagauzia both hate that idea.
EVERYBODY
you can look things up in Wikipedia. It gives very good simple summaries, a couple of pages for the whole history of places like Transnistria. Not totally accurate but enough to get you started.
Perhaps when the new blog gets going, we can ask for a section to keep these sit-reps together with an explanatory cover page.
These places are way too small to go it alone, 150,000 people and no income doesn’t make a country. But they don’t want to belong anywhere because they treated like dirt, for being minorities.
The Hungarians are there because there was a major change in its borders, as the price for being on the losing side in WWI. About 200K Hungarians are thus part of this region. Hungarians are not Slavs nor Orthodox. so there aren’t good odds for assimilation.
The borders of Central and Eastern Europe are at least as problematic as the borders drawn elsewhere by the French and English.
Before the Treat of Trianon in 1920, Hungary extended in every direction a lot further than the present borders. The treaty cut off more than 3 million people (about a third of the population) into other countries. so every country adjoining Hungary still has substantial Hungarian minorities.
Not only are they not Slavs or Orthodox, many are not even Catholic (the majority religion), but rather Lutheran. The language is unique, not a “dialect” of anything else, so easy to keep separate.
Throughout Europe, borders kept getting redrawn as empires ebbed and flowed. All lands that used to be boundaries, at any time, ended up with a mixture of peoples. Any further move to change boundaries will only result in some different group becoming the “minority” which may eventually dream of, or demand, being rejoined with their “home” country.
The solution really is for countries to treat their minorities well enough that they don’t want to leave.