It is with an immense and heartfelt THANK YOU! to “BM” for his translation that I have the real privilege to share with you this translation into English of the excellent article of worldcrisis.ru I mentioned in my previous post. This is, in my opinion, the most complete and well-written analysis of the apparent Russian “passivity” and we all owe “BM” a big debt of gratitude for making it available to us on such short notice. I especially encourage you all to circulate this translation as it is by far the best explanation of the Kremlin’s policy.
The Saker
PS: I was also sent a link to this article http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127 with an interesting description of the condition of the Ukrainian army. Also a must read imho.
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Why there is no Russian military intervention in the Ukraine
Posted on worldcrisis.ru 30 Май 22:19
опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии [suho]
опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии [suho]
The level of analytical discussions on the Russian Internet is perfectly described by the political scientist Simon Uralov: “To consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off only the minds of the Kievan colleagues and turned them all into bloodthirsty hysterics is fundamentally mistaken. Among the Moscow colleagues there is also an incredible number of such.” The purpose of this material is to take a step back from the hysteria and coldly analyze the situation in Ukraine.
I’ll start with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics:
Why is there no Russian military intervention?
If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant part of it would had to have been devote to explaining why sending troops to Ukraine was inappropriate and just plain stupid even after the referendum. Fortunately, the head of the resistance ibn Slaviansk, Igor Strelkov, coped with this task better than I: in his video message, he very clearly described the inertness of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments about the referendum, I hasten to say that a check mark on the ballot is certainly cool, but not much different from any hipster-white-ribboned (belolentochnyh) attempts “carry mode” – the “like” on Facebook. Because a “like” handle made in the bulletin doesn’t change anything. The referendum was a necessary but not sufficient action.
How much was the Kremlin prepared for events in Ukraine and how much does it improvise even now?
I advise you to read the telegram’s Wikileaks: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , in which it is shown that Kremlin clearly pointed out to the Americans in 2008 the scenarios that we see today: “Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”
It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that we are now in even more unpleasant but less nuanced script that something like “Plan E”.
In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, let’s formulate objectives:
– Do not allow the entry of Ukraine into NATO.
– Do not allow the establishment and stabilization in Ukraine of a Russophobic regime, which assumes denazification.
– Do not allow the genocide of Russian South-East population.
Ideally this requires implementation of all three objectives while, in that interval, not breaking the Russian economy during its reorientation toward Asia and, at the same time, preventing the Americans from pulling off their economic ends at the expense of the EU.
How can these goals be realized?
Let us consider the simplest scenario and see what are the vulnerabilities and negative consequences:
So, the Russian army enters Ukraine and a few days later comes to Kiev, then captures all of Ukraine. “Patriots” are jubilant, there are parades on the Khreschatyk, etc.
It seems that all three goals have been achieved, but the following problems emerge:
1. In the EU, where the European business elite has slowly pressed on the feet of their politicians and stamped on the brakes with regard to sanctions, the “war party” (a/k/a “The Party of the United States”, or rather “Party Pax Americana») clearly triumphs. Against the Russian Federation, the maximum of real sanctions cut in with terrifying effect principally for the European economy themselves, which immediately falls into a recession. But nothing to rejoice about.
Against this background, the Americans easily force the signing of their version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a trade pact, which turns the EU into an appendage of the U.S. economy. Negotiations about the treaty are going on right now and, for the Americans, the entry of Russian troops in Ukraine would be a huge gift. Sanctions against Russia would destroy European business and trade barriers with the U.S. would finish it. What we have at the end: EU in a state as if after a war; the United States, all in white, joyfully absorbing European markets on which they have not and will not have competitors; the Russian Federation – not in the best shape. Does it seem to anyone that someone in this situation is the fool (лох), and that that someone is clearly not the U.S.? By the way, it is not necessary to take into account the arguments to the effect that European politicians would not allow economic suicide. Euro-bureaucrats are not capable even of this, as practice shows.
2. Besides the fact that the Kremlin will render a service to Washington, we need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.
• If the sanctions cut against Russia before the gas mega-contract for 30 years with China is signed, then China will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from a position of blackmail (This shows in China’s comportment, however, but not clearly).
• If the sanctions are imposed against Russia before the oil mega-contract with Iran is initialled, through which Rosneft will be able to control an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Iran will be able to negotiate a price froma position of strength.
• All subsequent attempts to build something up even to the delivery of imports we need now, will be very, very expensive.
• If sanctions cut in before the signing of the agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community, imagine what trumps Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will have to twist Putin’s arms at negotiations. A little more of this, and Moscow, in order to create the EurAsEC, will have to pay for its oil.
3. The Russian Federation would have to assume the responsibility for the restoration of the Ukrainian economy and denazification: where to get the needed number of “denazifiers” in “dusty helmets” (if anyone has forgotten, according to Okudzhava, it was the commissars in dusty helmets that bent over the dead hero of the Civil War) to fight compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, which will enjoy support and supply from abroad. On aggregate, it is clear that this scenario greatly benefits the United States and China. Russia remains a deep sense of moral satisfaction, economic issues and future curses of the “generous” (щирых) Ukrainians who are unhappy with “life under occupation.”
How are the key points in time our vulnerabilities laid out?
1. Gas contract with China – May-June (May 21 signed!)
2. Oil contract with Iran in summer (That’s why the U.S. lifted the embargo, as Rosneft is very tightly seated under BP and not very under Exxon Mobil. Where does the oil flows? To China).
3. Important! Elections to the European Parliament, which will get a lot of votes Eurosceptic allies of Russia. After the election, will be assembled Evrokommissii different composition which will be much easier to work with – May 25. Even more important! Gas contract signed with China, newly elected deputies will be more amenable to South Stream.
4. Collection of all relevant documents/permits/etc., for construction of South Stream – May.
This is what is visible to the naked eye, but there are other aspects that are very important, but which are difficult to place clearly on a timetable:
1. Transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and gas are not potatoes: they (are provided under) long-term contracts that cannot be altered unilaterally but require lengthy work to replace them with new ones, plus the change in current ones.
2. Transition to quoting prices in rubles for energy (for trading in rubles) on the Russian markets – it is absolutely hellish work though, if only because up until now no one has ever done anything like it.
3. Own payment system
4. Preparation of import substitution or improvement of our work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode).
The list can and should continue, that’s what I see, and the Kremlin is much broader horizons.
Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is not sitting idly by with its hands folded. For example, Vice Minister Karasin was in Doha on May 6 and met with all the Qatari elite. The results, in my opinion, turned out to be shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the “convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation”, which is very unexpected for a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East and a 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria. But the casket (ларчик) has simply opened: the fact is that American dreams of filling the whole world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar and its elite. Without ultra-high gas prices, Qatar does not just lose any hope for regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer something of interest: “At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF)”, the next summit of which (that’s a coincidence!) will be held in Qatar. The Forum of Gas Exporting Countries is an organization which includes countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which the Kremlin, for a long time but without success, the Kremlin tried to turn into the gas analogue of OPEC. It is possible that now is the right hour for a potential gas cartel. First, the three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar and Iran have very similar interests and should be able to work on the same side in order to share and “take over the gills” of the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a reduced format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of the world’s gas reserves and have significant opportunities to strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project would involve a lot of problems and it will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything will work, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking opportunities for more strategic advantages in the fight against the United States.
Hopefully it is now clear on what the Kremlin is spending time, which it is trying to win out of the Ukrainian situation, and why it matters.
Let’s return to problems directly related to Ukraine and note that even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects will not help in carrying out the denazification of Kiev and make it so that Russian troops or rebel army of Novorossia would by greeted with bread and salt even in the central region. If the army of Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then work within the zombified regions will be very, very difficult. However, it seems that on the side of the Russian Federation on the field of battle will soon appear Colonel Hunger and the Special Forces Giperok (“Hyperinflation”), which will dramatically change the balance of power.
The Ukrainian economy is finished. Given the disastrous spring sowings, the crops of vegetables destroyed (frozen), lack of credit, problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, we can safely say that the economy will come as a northern beast, which will be full and fluffy. No one will give money to the junta, not even from the IMF, which promised something around $17 billion (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), but built into the contract an “escape clause”: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is not to receive a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and correct the minds of the “generous” (shchirykh) Ukrainians: they will surely not come to love Russia, but this is hardly necessary. It is necessary that they begin to remember the Yanukovych period as sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with low intensity civil war guarantees that NATO will not accept Ukraine since Europe will then itself “be on the rails”, and even in the U.S., more or less moderate politicians will not make a move, which obviously would not lead to U.S. victory, but to the dragging of the country into a nuclear war.
Moreover, in the context of total economic collapse, for the miners, metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to “ride it all in their huts on the edge (of the precipice)”, there will no longer be such a possibility. They will have to participate in one form or another, in the political and economic problems of New Russia. And likely they will have to participate in arms.
At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko, foisted (on the country) by the European Union, will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. Already, the new European Commission, which needs peace in the east and stable gas transit, will be pushing Poroshenko in this direction. Poroshenko will also be pushed in the same direction by social upheavals caused by Colonel Hunger and Hyperinflation the Saboteur.
All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate to the interests of the Russian Federation. It is precisely this scenario that the United States is attempting to avoid, and it is because of this that the United States has serious reasons to accelerate the translation of the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed.
If you add up the time that is needed for the action of Hunger and the time required to resolve foreign policy problems in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, untethering from the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion that you need somewhere 5-9 months (that same December, for which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, you must provide at least for the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR, LNR, but it is not necessary to take Kiev too fast in order not to create unnecessary additional problems) and ideally, combined with the civil war, prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format, i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.
The final touch. In recent months, the U.S. has slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing the “pump-priming” (this especially simplifies the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (e.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427), that the machine will turn off completely by the end of this year. Again, in that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though it is the main international currency, cannot be printed endlessly – it is impossible. According to various estimates, the United States has almost entirely used up the “resource strength” of the dollar, which allowed them to do the naughty with the (financial) machine. Moreover, the corollary and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing rates on U.S. bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington to pay less for its debts, but, on the other hand, is actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, the U.S. will have a choice between to blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stability at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington has decided that preventing an explosion is more important than its foreign policy ambitions.
Now to complete the puzzle finally, let’s make our predictions:
– America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine, in order to weaken Russia and put the whole European market under its sway before it needs to shut down its printing presses.
– The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to the chronic phase – civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create favorable conditions for the transition to the sharp confrontation with the United States – from the work on untethering from the dollar with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the EEC etc.
– Complete end to the crisis in December 2014, possibly earlier if U.S. desists from trying to exacerbate the hostilities.
– And if it does not desist? – Then … a big war … a war for resources, because shale “boom” was an ordinary bubble.
On this subject in detail in the article by William Engdahl “Washington shale boom – bust”. Original Washington’s Shale Boom Going Bust http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washington-s-shale-boom-going-bust/
END
Crossvader said: “Is there a budget surplus in the USA? No. Not even close. USA is solidly in the red.”
As the article (correctly points out, although it misses the implications), the US gov-ernment creates its own money. Therefore, it is not in the red. It is always in the black. It can render its money valueless, but only if it creates so much that it exceeds the demand for it in the domestic economy, which means if its production outstrips economic capacity. Our economic capacity is currently greatly underutilized (idle capital and labor). Ergo, the government still has significant spending capacity.
Crossvader said: “How can a government spending be ‘inadequate’ if cumulative governemnt debt already exceeds 100% of GDP, and even on top of an economic cycle, the budget deficit is projected to be around 4% of GDP this fiscal year, with an open-end deterioration after 2017.”
Because those metrics have nothing to do with a government’s spending capacity, at least as concerns a government that is monetarily sovereign. (Governments in the European Monetary Union are not monetarily sovereign, and that is by neoliberal design.) Money comes from government, not the private sector. Its debt can be (and theoretically is) infinite in the long term. Indeed, it need not issue debt at all. That, too, is a policy choice for a monetarily sovereign nation.
Concerning Iran/Russia/Israel
The Rouhani/Rafsanjani faction represent the interests of Iranian oligarchs. They are Westernizing, Neo-liberal scum.
They are opposed by the clerical establishment led by Ayatollah Khameiani, who is well disposed to Russia but relatively weak and unpopular with the Globalists and younger Iranians who have very much bought into the American Dream. Khameini is in a similar position to Putin concerning the Iranian intelligensia. This makes him weak.
I believe Putin shares this view. Iran must chose Russia, not the other way around. Nothing will happened until they do although I agree that Iran/Russia/China make for an incredibly powerful block. It is good to see China take up this issue by recently suggesting a stronger alliance between the three. This was another one of Putin’s big gains after the Beijing summit.
Until then, Putin will do nothing to alienate Israel. Russia and Israel have strong cultural ties and a good business relationship. If Israel says no to S300/400 for Iran, Putin will agree so long as he is able to extract a benefit. This is likely what happened after Israel mini-nuked a Syrian/Russian arms depot (airport) some months ago. Putin and Netanyahu came to an understanding over Syria and Iran. Israel agreed to limit its actions against Assad and in return Russia agreed to limit military/technological transfers to Iran.
Not trying to be snarky — but when I saw “ibn Slaviansk” in one of the first paragraphs, I thought I’d stumbled on the nom de guerre of a Syrian Arab Army soldier who’d come to fight for Novorossiya.
American Kulak
To emphasize my point concerning Iran, some of you will remember a recent story appearing in the Anglo-Zionist press concerning Iranian youths who were ‘busted’ for posting videos of themselves doing the ‘Happy Dance.’
This ‘incident’ was specifically engineered to undermine Ayatollah Khameini and strengthen Rouhani.
Aside from the fact that this song makes me puke, it is indicative of the mindset of urban Iranian youth, which is very much in line with the iPhone addicted young people of the whole world. These kids are the ‘Maidanites’ of their own respective country.
On the whole, Iran is still a broadly conservative society.
@ 01 June, 2014 22:39
Interesting that you brought up Spengler aka David Goldman who writes for Asia Times. Yes he makes no bones about being a religious orthodox Jewish Zionist but he is not a neocon in the usual sense of that word. He actually supports cold realism towards Russia and came out in support of peaceful partition of Ukraine right after Crimea and before the fighting began in Eastern Ukraine. I see Spengler despite his religious views as more of an old school realist of the Kissinger mode (though without Kissinger’s complicity in murderous coups, Spengler’s worst sin is simply dismissing the Palestinians as a permanent hopeless case while advocating the U.S. or Israeli bombing of Iran, which isn’t going to happen).
American Kulak
Anonymous said…01 June, 2014 15:33
Indeed. Exactly right. Maintaining aggregate demand is the key.
A reason for Putin to intervene:
The neocons will keep trying to pull off a color revolution in Moscow. This is their number one goal right now worldwide. If patriotically-minded Russians see Putin betray Russian Spring, many of them will not defend him during the coming attempts to organize a Moscow Maidan. They’re not going to support domestic liberals and foreign organizers of these Maidan-like events either. They’ll just stay home. They’ll consider Putin almost as bad as the liberal, pro-“Western” alternative (Navalny or whoever), so they won’t care when others will try to overthrow him. I’m sure that the FSB, the Interior Ministry, etc. are full of patriotically-minded folks. To withstand future Moscow Maidans Putin will need their people’s support.
If patriotically-minded Russians see Putin defend Novorossiya or even just the Donbass and then admit new territories into the RF, they will fight for him like lions during future color revolution attempts in Moscow.
Obviously this line of thinking hasn’t persuaded him yet. Doesn’t mean it never will though.
cringing 2,
What you are advocating is maintaining your current lifestyle by spending future income of future generations, today.
That’s exactly what budget deficits are.
Says a lot about your ethics and outlook on life.
Also explains why the West is in terminal decline. With each passing year it has less and less wealth because the money that was supposed to be here today, is already gone. Spent yesterday.
Comments from Michael Green:
Comments from Michael Green
Thanks so much to Robin Westenra for this. It purports to explain what the Kremlin’s strategy is in the Ukraine. It more or less assumes that either the Russian army marches, or else Putin does nothing militarily. I certainly never called for direct Russian military involvement (boots on the ground), however. I’ve been mostly wondering, instead, if Putin has the cajones to supply the Ukrainian resistance with the arms, missiles and tanks that it needs. Maybe military contractors too, like Blackwater/Academi and Greystone. The downing of the helicopter was encouraging but, really, we haven’t heard much about Russian military support of this kind. This article seems to say: “Russian tanks can start rolling against Kiev, yes, but the wiser course is to do nothing at all militarily”. Where, I wonder, are those delicious 50 shades of grey?
The author of this article then advances a lot of long-winded arguments to prove that this “boots on the ground” straw man will not work – a Russian Rommel attacking Kiev, perhaps, never mind the irony. Bt what exactly has the author proved? Not much, IMO, and why am I not impressed? First off, it projects a lot of dubious assumptions that are more or less elevated as certainties – e.g., “At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko … will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. But, in fact, things seem to be moving in the exact opposite direction. It also predicts a complete resolution to the issues (now escalating) no later than December 2014, but what if the Kremlin is wrong in its analysis? Well, then, it says, a “big war” will follow.
Now, chess can be a very cerebral game. Firmly rooted ONLY in the economic sphere, Putin’s game is not three dimensional chess, however, and it isn’t the game of GO. He is still firmly rooted too in the Either/Or decision tree, and he doesn’t seem to realize he has other options. Or maybe Putin does realize there are other options, but they are not covered in this article. It appears that the Russian oligarchy, being obsessed with economics, has not really considered these other options either. Sad, because that’s the sort of thing that can cause very serious trouble. Meanwhile, Kiev is moving to a war footing, as described by Vladimir Suchan and some others. We will just have to see whether the luminaries in the Kremlin – and the oligarchs in the Russian business community – are as good with strategy as they think they are.
In six months, no more, or else we will have a big war.
Comments from Michael Green:
Comments from Michael Green
Thanks so much to Robin Westenra for this. It purports to explain what the Kremlin’s strategy is in the Ukraine. It more or less assumes that either the Russian army marches, or else Putin does nothing militarily. I certainly never called for direct Russian military involvement (boots on the ground), however. I’ve been mostly wondering, instead, if Putin has the cajones to supply the Ukrainian resistance with the arms, missiles and tanks that it needs. Maybe military contractors too, like Blackwater/Academi and Greystone. The downing of the helicopter was encouraging but, really, we haven’t heard much about Russian military support of this kind. This article seems to say: “Russian tanks can start rolling against Kiev, yes, but the wiser course is to do nothing at all militarily”. Where, I wonder, are those delicious 50 shades of grey?
The author of this article then advances a lot of long-winded arguments to prove that this “boots on the ground” straw man will not work – a Russian Rommel attacking Kiev, perhaps, never mind the irony. Bt what exactly has the author proved? Not much, IMO, and why am I not impressed? First off, it projects a lot of dubious assumptions that are more or less elevated as certainties – e.g., “At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko … will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. But, in fact, things seem to be moving in the exact opposite direction. It also predicts a complete resolution to the issues (now escalating) no later than December 2014, but what if the Kremlin is wrong in its analysis? Well, then, it says, a “big war” will follow.
Now, chess can be a very cerebral game. Firmly rooted ONLY in the economic sphere, Putin’s game is not three dimensional chess, however, and it isn’t the game of GO. He is still firmly rooted too in the Either/Or decision tree, and he doesn’t seem to realize he has other options. Or maybe Putin does realize there are other options, but they are not covered in this article. It appears that the Russian oligarchy, being obsessed with economics, has not really considered these other options either. Sad, because that’s the sort of thing that can cause very serious trouble. Meanwhile, Kiev is moving to a war footing, as described by Vladimir Suchan and some others. We will just have to see whether the luminaries in the Kremlin – and the oligarchs in the Russian business community – are as good with strategy as they think they are.
In six months, no more, or else we will have a big war.
Thanks for the translation BM I’m afraid ̶G̶a̶r̶g̶o̶y̶l̶e̶ Google trans is a joke !!
Chris in Ch-Ch
Too those who are uncomfortable with looking at a calculating and cold hearted analysis of possible of likely Russian motives and strategies, remember that Russia is just another Oligarch ruled Capitalist entity. In this struggle I am Pro-Donbass -anti Kiev, because I am entirely anti NAZI. Even though I am American, I Tend to be Pro-Russian generally in the political conflicts between Russia and the NATO powers because the NATO powers are the avante garde,the most dangerous extreme of a metastasizing, financialized, monopoly capitalism. Western finance capital has outgrown all restraints on it, and has mastered the governments of the countries that gave rise to it including the US government. It must be stopped. Even so, their is no final hope in a Capitalist “Multi polar world”, even one dominated by a Capitalist Eurasian center of gravity. The only hope ultimately, is a world socialist revolution.
Crossvader said…
cringing 2,
What you are advocating is maintaining your current lifestyle by spending future income of future generations, today.
That’s exactly what budget deficits are.
No they’re not. Sovereign currency is a flow. Not a stock.
Making people poor through unemployment now, will make people poorer in the future. Lost output and wealth creation now, can never ever be got back.
You can decide what that says about your ethics and outlook on life.
solerso,
Get comfy and prepare for a long wait. Per Karl Marx, the world socialist revolution is only possible when the whole world is so rich that it’s ready to leave capitalism behind.
Whole world. Well, right now the huge swathes of this planet are still stuck in feudalism. They will enter the capitalist phase of development by the time your body is placed in a casket and returned to its maker.
Then it will take another couple hundred years for Africa to catch up to America economically, and only once it happens, we may have transition to socialism.
I wouldn’t advise anyone to get too excited about easy life materializing any moment now.
Thanks Crossvader. I have always thought the system does not work for countries like India, or even Brazil. It does not even work for US now, see the parade of incompetent people they have elected. I like rest of your analysis too. Did not think about it before.
@Anonymous 04:17
I wouldnt be so quick to accept Crossvaders analysis on India and Democracy as accurate.
There’s just too many details about India that are required to be discussed that refute his assertion, time does not permit me to go into even 10 percent of them.
1)The United States grew their own economy massively thru internal consumption and expansion and thru exports all the way to the end of the 19th century; none of this was thru a totalitarian regime nor thru gov spending.
2)Brazils impoverishment did not occur as a result of their capitalism or democracy, it happened due to deliberate anti-industrialization laws imposed on Brasil by the Portuguese crown at the behest of the British Empire. The British agreed to let Portugal keep their empire as long as a) the British received a virtual monopoly of the raw materials exported from Brasil to Lisbon, and b) that Brasil not be allowed to manufacture or refine anything, not even clothes; manufactured goods had to be bought from Portugal, who in turn were forced to buy them mainly from the British. A mirror image of the policies those Vampires in London carried out on india.
3) India has massive natural resource reserves, more than China, despite China being 3x India’s size. Which is why India is an exporter of resources and not an importer (with the exception of fossil fuels).
4) The landslide victory of an unapologetic Indian Nationalist; Narendra Modi (a member of a so-called “low-caste”/”labourer-caste”) who has a consistent track record of double-digit growth economic growth rates in his home state of Gujrat.
5) Previous Indian GDP growth rates that hovered around 8-10 percent per annum were NOT due to exports, the majority portion being driven by internal demand and reduction in Gov red-tape, and license fees. Only 1/3 of the GDP growth rate could be attributed to exports.
6)A low internat debt and a high saving rate: a build-up of internal capital that can only be invested domestically due to the distorted undervaluing of the rupee; (the rupee can buy 5 times as many goods domestically as it can purchase externally). This acts as a natural trade barrier to imports (ironically due to the greed of Western/OECD currency speculators).
7) A large middleclass (bigger than China’s).
8) A large R&D and industrial sector.
9) A massive underutilized trained workforce of Engineers, Scientists and technicians.
10) Massive internal private reserves of precious metals and other commodities.
There are mainly four major things holding back the Indian economy:
1) Corruption; especially at the top. Incompetent/Criminal-Mafia politicians from India’s regional parties (who were decimated by the Indian voter in this last election)
2) Red tape and bureacratic restrictions on economic activity: Starting a business in India (outside of Gujrat) is a nightmare.
3) Extremely poor infrastructure (as a result of point number 2) except in Gujrat.
4) Deliberate sabotage by elements of the Anglo-Saxon empire (in particular by the Intelligence Agencies of the UK); via their Salafist proxies in Pakistan as well as actions of Anglophile members of India’s foreign owned English language media (News Corp, ABC/NBC, Viacom).
Rather than making a prediction, lets see what the next 5 years brings: with the rise of Russia, the rapid decline of the UK, their influence within the US and EU, the continued energy integration of Asia, via a $30Billion Russian pipeline to India via Western China, the easy access to Iranian energy, and the best demographics out of all the BRICs economies.
ARGH!! Typos can really invert what one is trying to convey!
Corrections to post by Observer @15:17 below:
Point 1) The US grew their economy primarily thru internal expansion and consumption and NOT thru exports.
Point 6) A low internal debt load (not internat)
Last paragraph:
….the rapid decline of the UK and their loss of influence in the US and the EU…..
cringing 2,
Bizarre.
Japanese already are pushing 250% debt-to-GDP ratio, and there is still unemployment there, and a I don’t see a vibrant, happy country. Quite the opposite.
Whatever that “flow” of yours it is, it looks like every indebted country is flowing down the sewer.
Crossvader said…
02 June, 2014 04:45
I’m guessing that you’re a Libertarian/Austrian School disciple?
In which case macroeconomics won’t sway you from the cultish doomsday debt scenario.
Just to connect some dots here. The article mentioned that Qatar is starting to break ranks with the US over the American decision to flood the market with cheap gas and that Qatar was suggesting on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF) with Russia. I suppose the idea would be to put a bottom price on the price of gas in the world market. The American idea sounds insane on the surface of it as, if the price of gas became so cheap, the price of developing the infrastructure and transport facilities would no longer be financially viable in any case.
Be that as it may, it today’s news, Qatar is under threat of losing its right to host the 2022 World Cup for Soccer. This was a result of millions of emails and documents being obtained by the media detailing the bribes used by Qatar to get the event, which of course no other FIFA member ever does. Has anybody thought to ask just where the frigg these emails suddenly came from? The source is suppose to be a FIFA insider but this is a helluva coincidence in timing. Could all this be a warning to Qatar? Would this also imply that every FIFA country has a similar file held on some server in case it is ever needed?
Another thing is the article that Saker mentioned at http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127 on the Ukrainian Army. This is just nothing less than criminal negligence of some very good men and it is lucky that there has not been any major outbreaks of diseases yet (maybe in the autumn and winter!). I am willing to bet that their supply lines are almost non-existent too. The only recourse that such units mentioned would be to establish local truces with the rebels as in “I-won’t-shoot-at-you-if-you-do-not-shoot-at-me”.
The point that I want to make is that the Ukrainian Army was a shambles, even before all the troubles started. There was not even money to supply the military with fuel and car batteries – an oligarch had to supply those. I am beginning to wonder if this was the intent over the past ten, twenty years. When you get down to it, the only viable force in the Ukraine to crack down on the oligarchs who have plundered the country would be the military as all other institutions have been compromised. By having the military kept crippled, this possibility was removed. Now that policy has come back to bite them on the arse. Just a thought mind you.
FI and reference: I have posted the article incorporating E’s translation plus a couple of minor tweeks on Wikispooks here
American Kulak, in my opinion Spengler is an evil creature, the very worst type of Judaic supremacist. I suggest people interested in judging this creature read his latest article in Asia Times regarding Pope Francis’ trip to Occupied Palestine. In my opinion the racist contempt and the deranged religious supremacism is quite despicable. While numerous arse-lickers to the Jews squirm and wriggle about trying to assert that the idea of ‘God’s Chosen People’ is ‘metaphorical’ or intended to be understood as some sort of duty to mankind, as one groveling worm did recently in The Guardian sewer, to read the likes of Spengler will swiftly disabuse you of that opinion. They really, truly, deeply see themselves as the Supreme Beings of the Universe.
A coup d´état under the guise of an ‘Orange Revolution’ is being prepared in Russia. The big picture and the details are given by Evgeny Fedorov, a deputy in the Russian parliament, and coordinator of the People’s Liberation Movement. The coup facilitator is the fifth column, which dominates the mass-media and public servants all the way up to government ministers, a point barely known within Russia, never mind outside. However, the people’s insurrection in Ukraine could wake up enough people in Russia to restore national sovereignty. In the next few years it will come to a head, with only two possible outcomes : the destruction of Russian civilization or the collapse of the American empire. …. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0zRD-Ulv2s#t=707
There might be also another answer to the question why Russia doesn´t intervene: http://wipokuli.wordpress.com/2013/08/02/snowden-putin-and-the-us-russian-partnership-some-legitimate-speculations/
Andreas Schlüter
Sociologist
Berlin, Germany
@Observer (:-?)
To that particular user of the same nickname here: whoever you might be, you certainly do not own the word “Observer”. Its generic and multiple usage in commentaries is quite common, in any blog, and that includes this one.
Fortuitously, the very style of your spontaneous diatribe (supposedly in defense of “tsar” (:-!) Vladimir Vladimirovich, amply indicating a lack of understanding of and concern for the predicament of the people of Новороссия) could easily serve as a distinguishing mark, leaving no one in a quandary as of your identity.
Mission accomplished! I only wanted to force you to differentiate yourself and your apparent infantile hatred of Putin, a man who has resurrected his country from the rubble history and turned it back into a great power. At least thats what even his enemies in the Western MSM grudgingly admit about him.
Your irrational child-like diatribe against Putin is not something I’d like to be associated with – hence my motive in poking you.
Insofar as Putin is concerned, I’m neutral, I can only judge the man based on his results, and those results are quite noteworthy: he took russia from the mess and impoverishment caused by corruption of Yeltsin REGIME and turned the country around in an astonishingly short time frame. I don’t claim to know anything negative about him.
So if you’re such an expert on why Putin is such a bad man, please supply objective facts to support your opinion. In other words educate us, i freely admit that i dont know the ‘dark’ side of the Putin story.
I’m quite serious, you might yet convince me and others that you are right, as long as you stick to the facts and keep opinions, insults and emotions out of the discussion. I suspect you’re going to have a hard time doing this because Putin’s success is so overwhelming, but then again we may be ignorant of facts that you can bring to the table.
I’m all ears, awaiting your reply.
“Should RF also look into history and study what polices bring about a prospers society and have a sound strategy instead of some ad hoc polices?”
Read this book: Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism, by
Ha-Joon Chang.
Or read: PERFIDIOUS ALBION: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE SECRET HISTORY OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE.
http://www.newdawnmagazine.com/articles/perfidious-albion-an-introduction-to-the-secret-history-of-the-british-empire
Russia-China need to follow this
realcurrencies.wordpress.com/2012/04/19/the-swiss-wir-or-how-to-defeat-the-money-power
http://www.ces.org.za/docs/Gesell/en/neo/gesell.htm
Also see this
http://www.counter-currents.com/2012/11/two-volumes-by-gottfried-feder/
To understand that history repeats and all trix were developed already. I recomend see archive of Kery Bolton at counter-currents and also at Newdawnmagazine.com search for BRITAIN and read some interesting articles.
Saker, Pour vos lecteurs francophones nombreux, voici la traduction française. http://www.agoravox.fr/tribune-libre/article/pourquoi-il-n-y-a-pas-d-152754
GV (Québec)
More about shale gas. Here: http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/5/29/the-fracking-shakeout.html and here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-26/shakeout-threatens-shale-patch-as-frackers-go-for-broke.html
No time to read the comments to see if this has been brought up earlier:
The joker in the pack are the Saudis. Their oil is priced in petrodollars. As the existing system unravels, they will be under increasing pressure to “do something.” If that involves switching sides, the dollar is toast as of that moment.
Very good article – wonder who wrote it?
The Saker is right on the mark. Keep writing. Best blog I have found. Excellent analysis.
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