U.S. posture in the Middle-East: preparing for disaster

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

Lies, damn lies and statistics

Turns out that Trump and the Pentagon were lying. Again. This time about the true impact of the Iranian counter-strike on US forces in Iraq. First they claimed that there were no injured U.S. personnel, only to eventually have to fess up that 34 soldiers had suffered traumatic brain injury (which Trump “re-classified” as a “headache”). Then they had to admit that it was not really 34, but actually 50!

According to some sources, not all U.S. personnel were hiding in bunkers and some were deployed to defend the base perimeter. Whatever may be the case, this adds yet another indication that the Iranian counter-strike was much more robust than originally reported by the Empire. In fact, Iranian sources indicate that following the strike, a number of wounded casualties were flown to Israel, Kuwait and Germany. Again, we will probably never find out the full truth about what happened that night, but two things are now certain:

The Iranian attack was extremely effective and it is undeniable that all the US/NATO/Israeli forces in the region are now exposed like sitting ducks waiting for the next Iranian strike.
Uncle Shmuel has had to dramatically under-report the real extent and nature of the Iranian counter-strike.

Now, let’s be clear about the quality of the warning the U.S. personnel had. We now know at the very least the following warnings were received:

Warning through the Iraqi government (whom the Iranians did brief about their intentions).
Warning through the Swiss authorities (who represent U.S. interests in Iran and whom the Iranian did brief about their intentions).
Warning through the US reconnaissance/intelligence capabilities on the ground, air and space.

And yet, in spite of these almost ideal conditions (from the point of view of defense), we now see that not a single Iranian missile was intercepted, that the missiles all landed with very high accuracy, that the U.S. base itself suffered extensive damage (including destroyed helicopters and drones) and that there were scores of injured personnel (see this article for a detailed discussion of the post-attack imagery).

If we look at this strike as primarily a “proof of concept” operation, then it becomes pretty clear that on the Iranian side what was proven was a superb degree of accuracy and robust ballistic missile capability, whereas on the U.S. side the only thing this strike did was to prove that the U.S. forces in the region are all extremely vulnerable to Iranian missile attack. Just imagine if the Iranians had wanted to maximize U.S. casualties and if they had given no warning of any kind – what would the tally be then?! What if the Iranians had targeted, say, fuel and ammo dumps, buildings where U.S. personnel lived, industrial facilities (including CENTCOM’s key logistic nodes), ports or even airfields? Can you imagine the kind of hell the Iranians would have unleashed against basically unprotected facilities?!

Still dubious?

Then ask yourself why Trump & Co. had to lie and minimize the real scope of the Iranian attack. It is pretty obvious that the White House decided to lie and to present the strike as almost without impact because if it had admitted the magnitude of the strike, then it would also have had to admit to the total powerlessness to stop or even to meaningfully degrade it. Not only that, but an outraged U.S. public (most Americans still believe the traditional propaganda line about “The Greatest Military Force in the History of the Galaxy”!) would have demanded a retaliatory counter-counter-strike against Iran, which would have triggered an immediate Iranian attack on Israel which, in turn, would have plunged the entire region into a massive war which the U.S. had no stomach for.

Contrast that with the Iranian claims which, if anything, possibly exaggerated the impact of the strike and claimed that 80 servicemen were injured (I would add here that, at least so far, the Iranian government has been far more candid and less inclined to resort to crude lies than the U.S. has). Clearly the Iranians were ready for exactly the kind of further escalation that the U.S. wanted to avoid at almost any cost.

So what really took place?

There are two basic ways to defend against an attack: denial and punishment. Denial is what the Syrians have been doing against the U.S. and Israel every time they shoot down incoming missiles. Denial is ideal because it minimizes your own casualties while not necessarily going up the “escalation scale”. In contrast, punishment is when you don’t prevent an attack, but when you inflict retaliatory counter-strike on the attacking side, but only after being attacked yourself. That is what the USA could do against Iran, at pretty much at any time (yes, contrary to some wholly unrealistic claims, Iranian air defenses cannot prevent the US armed forces from inflicting immense damage upon Iran, its population and infrastructure).

The problem with punishing Iran is you are dealing with an enemy who is actually willing to absorb immense losses as long as these losses eventually lead to victory. How do you deter somebody who is willing to die for his country, people or faith?

There is no doubt in my mind that the Iranians, who are superb analysts, are fully aware of the damage that the U.S. can inflict. The key factor here is that they also realize that once the U.S. unleashes its missiles and bombers and once they destroy many (if not all) of their targets, they will have nothing else left to try to contain Iran with.

Here is how you can think of the Iranian strategy:

If the U.S. does nothing or only engages in symbolic strikes (say, like Israel’s strikes in Syria), the Iranians can simply ignore these attacks because while they are very effective in giving the Americans (or the Israelis) an illusion of power, they really fail to achieve anything militarily significant.
If the U.S. finally decides to strike Iran hard, it will exhaust its “punishment card” in that counter-attack, and will have no further options to deter Iran.
If the U.S. (or Israel) decides to use nuclear weapons, then such an attack will simply give a “political joker card” to Iran saying in essence “now you are justified in whatever retaliation you can think of”. And you can be darn sure that the Iranian will come up with all sorts of most painful forms of retaliation!

You can think of the current US posture as “binary”: it is either “all off” or “all on”. Not by choice, of course, but these conditions are the result of the geostrategic realities of the Middle-East and from the many asymmetries between the two sides:

Country	USA	Iran
Air superiority	yes	no
Combat capable ground forces	no	yes
Willingness to incur major losses	no	yes
Long and vulnerable supply lines	yes	no
Prepared for major defensive operations	no	yes

The above is, of course, a simplification, yet it is also fundamentally true. And the reason for these asymmetries lies in a very simple yet crucial difference: US Americans have been brainwashed into believing that major wars can be won on the cheap. Iranians have no such illusions (most certainly not after Iraq, backed by the USA, the USSR and Europe, attacked Iran and inflicted immense destruction on the Iranian society). But the era of “wars on the cheap” is now long over.

Furthermore, Iranians also know that U.S. air superiority alone will not magically result in a U.S. victory. Finally, the Iranians have had 40 years to prepare for a U.S. attack. The U.S. has only really been put on notice since January 8^th of this year.

Again, for the USA, it is “all in” or “all out”. We saw the “all out” in the days following the Iranian counter-strike and we can get an idea of what the “all in” would look like by recalling the Israeli operations against Hezbollah in 2006.

The Iranians, however, have a much more gradual escalatory capability, which they just demonstrated with their attack on the U.S. forces in Iraq: they can launch only a few missiles, or they can launch hundreds of them. They can try to maximize U.S. casualties, or they can decide to go after CENTCOM’s infrastructure. They can chose to strike Uncle Shumel directly, or they can decide to strike his allies (KSA) and bosses (Israel). They can chose to take credit for any action, or they can hide behind what the CIA calls plausible deniability.

So while the U.S. and the AngloZionist Empire as a whole are much more powerful than Iran, Iran has skillfully developed methods and means which allow it to be in control of what military analysts call the “escalation dominance”.

Has Iran just “ledeened” the almighty USA?

Remember Michael Ledeen? He is the Neocon who came up with this historical aphorism: “Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business“.

Is it not ironic that Iran did exactly that, they took the USA and “threw it against a wall, just to show that they meant business”, did they not?

And what does this all tell us?

For one thing, the U.S. military is in real trouble. It is pretty obvious that U.S. air defenses are hopelessly ineffective: we saw their “performance” in Saudi Arabia against the Houthi strikes. The truth is that the Patriot missiles never performed adequately, not in the first Gulf War, nor today. The big difference is that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq did not have any high-precision missiles and that its attempts to strike at the U.S. (or Israel, for that matter) where not very effective. Thus, it was easy for the Pentagon to fudge the real performance (or lack thereof!) of its weapon systems. Now that Iran has been able to pinpoint some buildings while carefully ignoring others shows that the entire Middle-East has entered a radically new era.

Second, it is equally obvious that U.S. bases in the Middle-East are very vulnerable to ballistic and cruise missile attacks. Air defenses are a very complicated and high-tech branch of the military and it often takes years, if not decades, to develop a truly effective air defense system. Due in part to its tendency to only attack weak and lightly-defended countries, and also due to the very real deterrent might the U.S. armed forces used to deliver in the past, the U.S. never had to really worry much about air defenses. The “little guys” had no missiles, while the “big guys” would never dare to openly strike at Uncle Shmuel’s forces.

Until recently.

Now, it is the previously almighty World Hegemon which has been tossed against a wall by a much weaker Iran and thus found itself being treated like a “small crappy little country”.

Sweet irony!

But there is much more to this story.

The real Iranian goal: to get the U.S. out of the Middle-East

The Iranians (and many Iranian allies in the region) have made it clear that the real retaliation for the murder of General Soleimani would be to bring about a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and Syria primarily, followed by a complete withdrawal from the entire Middle-East.

How likely is such an outcome?

Right now, I would say that the chances of that truly happening are microscopically small. After all, who could seriously imagine the U.S. leaving either Saudi Arabia or Israel? Ain’t gonna happen short of a true cataclysm.

What about countries like Turkey or Pakistan which are formally allies of the USA but which are also showing clear signs of being mighty fed-up with the kind of “patronage” the USA likes to mete out to its “allies”? Do we have any reason to believe that these countries will ever officially demand that Uncle Shmuel’s mercenaries (because that is what U.S. forces are, paid invaders) get the hell out?

And then there are countries like Iraq or Afghanistan which have hosted a very successful and active anti-U.S. insurgency which has kept U.S. forces hunkered down in heavily fortified bases. I don’t think there is anybody mentally sane out there who could offer a even semi-credible scenario of what a U.S. “victory” would look like in these countries. The fact that the U.S. stayed in Afghanistan even longer than the Soviets did shows not only that the Soviet forces were far more effective (and popular) than their U.S. counterparts, but also that Gorbachev’s Politburo was more in touch with reality than Trump’s NSC.

Whatever may be the case, I believe it is undeniable that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are lost and than no amount of grandstanding will change this outcome. The same goes for Syria where the U.S. is basically holding on out of sheer stubbornness and a total inability to admit defeat.

Uncle Shmuel’s “vision of peace” for the Middle-East

Zionist Apartheid combined with a typically illegal land grab in violation of hundreds of UNSC resolutions. And they call that a “Vision for Peace”.

I just listened to the Idiot-in-Chief proudly present “his” Middle-East “peace” plan to Bibi Netanyahu and the world. This latest stunt shows two crucial things about the mind-set in Washington, D.C.:

There is nothing which the U.S. ruling classes will not do to try to get the favor and support of the Israel Lobby.
The USA does not care, not even marginally, what the people of the Middle-East think.

This dynamic, which is not anything new, but which received a qualitative “shot of steroids” under Trump, will only further contribute to the inevitable collapse of Empire in the Middle-East. For one thing, all the so-called “U.S. allies” in the region a;; understand that the only country which matters to the USA is Israel, and that all the others count for almost nothing. Furthermore, all the rulers of the Middle-East now also know that being allied to the USA also means being a cheap prostitute for Israel which, in turn, is guaranteed political suicide for any politician not wise enough to smell the trap. Finally, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria have shown that the “Axis of Kindness” is long on hyperbole and hubris, but very short in terms of actual combat capability.

The simple truth is that the abject brown-nosing of the Israel Lobby that Trump has been engaged in from Day 1 of his term only serves to further isolate and weaken the U.S. in the Middle-East (and beyond, really!).

In this context, how realistic is the Iranian goal of kicking Uncle Shmuel out of the region?

As I said, not realistic at all, if seen solely in the short term. But I hasten to add that it is very realistic in the mid-term if we look at some, but not all, the countries of the region. Finally, in the long term, it is not only realistic, it is inevitable, even if the Iranians themselves don’t do much, or anything at all, to make that happen.

These grinning ignoramuses are doing more than anyone else to bring down the Empire, even if they don’t understand this!

Conclusion: “Israel’s” days are numbered

The Israelis have been feeding us all a steady diet about this or that country or politician being a “new Hitler’ who will either gas 6M Jews “again”, or wants to wipe Israel “off the map” or even engage in a new Holocaust. Gilad Atzmon brilliantly calls this mental disorder “pre-traumatic stress disorder”, and he is spot on. The Israelis mostly used this “preemptive geschrei*” as a way to squeeze out as many concessions (and money) from the western goyim as possible. But in a deep sense, it is possibly that the Israelis are at least dimly aware that their entire project is simply not viable, that you cannot ensure the survival of any state by terrorizing all of your neighbors. Violence, especially vicious, rabid, violence can, indeed, terrorize people, but only for so long. Sooner or later, the human soul will outgrow any fear, no matter how visceral, and will replace that fear by a new and immensely powerful sense of determination.

Here is what Robert Fisk said in distant 2006, 14 years ago:

You heard Sharon, before he suffered his massive stroke, he used this phrase in the Knesset, you know, “The Palestinians must feel pain.” This was during one of the intifadas. The idea that if you continue to beat and beat and beat the Arabs, they will submit, that eventually they’ll go on their knees and give you what you want. And this is totally, utterly self-delusional, because it doesn’t apply anymore. It used to apply 30 years ago, when I first arrived in the Middle East. If the Israelis crossed the Lebanese border, the Palestinians jumped in their cars and drove to Beirut and went to the cinema. Now when the Israelis cross the Lebanese border, the Hezbollah jump in their cars in Beirut and race to the south to join battle with them. But the key thing now is that Arabs are not afraid any more. Their leaders are afraid, the Mubaraks of this world, the president of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan. They’re afraid. They shake and tremble in their golden mosques, because they were supported by us. But the people are no longer afraid.

What was true only for some Arabs in 2006, has now become true for most (maybe even all?) Arabs in 2020. As for the Iranians, they have never had any fear of Uncle Shmuel, they are the ones who “injected” the newly created Hezbollah with this qualitatively new kind of “special courage” (which is the Shia ethos, really!) when this movement was founded.

Empires can survive many things, but once they are not feared anymore, then their end is near. The Iranian strike proved a fundamental new reality to the rest of the world: the USA is much more afraid of Iran than Iran is afraid of the USA. U.S. rulers and politicians will, of course, claim otherwise. But that futile effort to re-shape reality is now doomed to failure, if only because even the Houthis can now openly and successfully defy the combined might of the “Axis of Kindness”.

You can think of U.S. and Israeli leaders as the orchestra on the Titanic: they play well, but they will still get wet and then die.

The Saker

(*geschrei: the Yiddish word for yelling, crying out, to shriek)

Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:44 pm EST/EDT

Now consider how many of those methods of waging war can be turned around and used against the USA. Americans are prone to imagining that their designated “antagonists” do not harm them because they can’t; whereas in fact the main reason is the “antagonists” have morals and respect for law.

However, when the USA commits acts of war against a country, international law allows retaliation by any military or other means (short of war crimes). And moral scruples cannot prevent retaliation for ever, under constantly increasing provocation.

1). Economic such as the use of sanctions/siege warfare, trade wars, and American Dollar Imperialism.

To be met (and eventually defeated) by reciprocal sanctions, the development of internal resources or altenative trading partners, and progressive elimination of the dollar and all its associated institutions. When Washington insists “My ball, my rules”, it will eventually find itself trying to play ball with itself as everyone else will have gone away.

2). Political such as regime change, destabilization, or balkanization campaigns–dressed up as (snicker) “Pro-Democracy” movements.

Such means can best be resisted by the increasing awareness of such sites as The Vineyard of the Saker (and dozens of others). All such political subversion will fail in proportion as the target communities are well-informed and understand Washington’s techniques and goals. (And their own dispensability in the long term).

3). Diplomatic such as the use of “international” organizations like the UN, ICC, OPCW to isolate and assault a nation.

Such “global” organizations were mostly set up by US resources and funding, and thus remain under the control of Washington. Much is already being done to reveal to public gaze the shameful venality of OPCW, and how its bosses have ignored the work and conclusions of their own experts. The ICC needs to establish that its writ runs everywhere – and if the USA tries to exclude itself and its citizens from the ICC’s jurisdiction, it should be met by universal condemnation and ostracism. As for the UN, it should be removed from US soil and relocated in some more neutral country such as Switzerland or India. (My favourite is Libya).

4). Religious such as the USA/NATO’s current attempt to subvert the Orthodox Church in the Balkans.

Perhaps some blowback might ensure if the proclaimed religious affiliations and beliefs of Washington were to be publicly compared with its acts. (E.g. “Whom would Jesus bomb?”)

5). Information war based upon thinly disguised media smear campaigns against a targeted state.

Again, the answer to this lies in the establishment and dissemination of reliable and reasonably impartial alternative media. The Western MSM has done a magnificanet job of discrediting itself, and all intelligent people of good will are searching for better sources of news and opinion. Besides, if Washington wishes to harm China, it will not to it much good to persuade its brainwashed and clueless US citizenry. People in China, Russia, the rest of Asia, much of Africa and South America, and even parts of Europe will not believe a word they see in the Western MSM.

6). Non-conventional war such as the use of cyber terrorism (e.g. the American-Israeli Stuxnet virus); ethnic-specific bioweapons; weather manipulation, etc.

“People who live in glasshouses should not throw stones”; the USA possesses the biggest, most elaborate and most fragile glasshouse in the world. It would be child’s play for any competent computer subversion group to cut off electricity supplies, thus stopping water supplies, food supplies, communication and many other functions without which the USA would grind to halt. The same applies to weather manipulation, which is probably impractical anyway. Ethnic-specific bioweapons can hardly be used against the USA, because it is a mixture of all conceivable ethnicities. Oh wait… doesn’t that mean that any ethnic-specific bioweapon would be certain to attack some US citizens?

In short, the decent peoples of the world merely have to wait for the roof to fall in on the American Babylon. Should Washington get agitated before that happens, well, there are always targeted missile strikes… and if necessary the whole USA could be sterilized.

146 Comments

Humble Student :| on January 29, 2020 · at 10:07 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker, I try to stay focused on the Big Picture: in my humble opinion, the current Empire hosted by the United States is quite possibly The Final Grand Imperial Empire of Satan himself…

Previous empires that survived many things were all just a build-up to the Empire of all empires: the One World Order of Satan! Bible prophecy is perfectly clear about this coming One World Order.

However, let us hope for the best and do everything we can to buy as much time for ourselves and future generations before the most terrible things start to happen – like, perhaps, Russia’s ultimately unavoidable defeat in some form or another…

But even if (or especially when!) such things start happening, we should never give up our spiritual fight…
- B.F. on January 30, 2020 · at 4:49 am EST/EDT
  
  Humble Student
  “However, let us hope for the best and do everything we can to buy as much time for ourselves and future generations before the most terrible things start to happen – like, perhaps, Russia’s ultimately unavoidable defeat in some form or another…”. What do you mean by this ? Russia’s ultimately unavoidable defeat ? What you wrote can apply to the US, not to Russia.
  
  The most irritating thing about the US is the fact that we have a former colony which, ostensibly, fought against colonialism, now demanding the right to create an empire of it’s own and expecting the rest of the world to accept this. Laughable. The US empire will in fact be the shortest lived in history, as the US, in fact, did a great job in having it’s European allies slowly turn against it.
  
  As for the article, great analysis as always by The saker. The US has a standing policy to officially reduce it’s casualties in every war it fights. In 1999 the Serbs shot down 137 NATO combat aircraft and 25 helicopters, including one F-117 stealth bomber (shown on TV and admitted by the US) and one B-2 stealth bomber (never shown on TV and never admitted by the US, which stated it crashed in the US due to “technical” difficulties). Neither NATO nor the US dared admit that they lost 137 combat aircraft and 25 helicopters. Since the air campaign against Serbia took longer than anybody anticipated, you had cases of German troops deserting, the actual number unknown, but certainly not small in number.
  
  As for the Patriot AA missile system, it must be the worst anti-aircraft missile system in the world. Some years ago an Israeli general stated that it’s efficiency rate was a mere 2 %. The Patriot has a nasty habit of having it’s missiles make U turns and attack those who fired them, which did happen in Israel on one occasion. Also, a few years ago Israel fired three Patriot missiles against one drone, and all three missed. The failure of the Patriot in Saudi Arabia should come as no surprise. Now compare that to the performance of the Russian Pantzir missile system, which shot down every drone fired against the Russian Air Force base in Syria.
  
  Will the US launch a full attack against Iran ? Only if the neocons in the US decide that the US is expendable for this task, which would not surprise me in the least.
  - Arvy on January 30, 2020 · at 9:50 am EST/EDT
    
    “The most irritating thing about the US is the fact that we have a former colony which, ostensibly, fought against colonialism, …”
    
    Ostensible to whom?! Certainly not to the native populations of the land with whom the “mad king” ot the “tyrannical” empire against whom they fought had established treaties restricting westward land speculation and expansion. That, along with refusal of a king’s commission in the regular British army, really PO’d the rebellion’s chief military leader (and major westward speculator) among others.
    
    George W and his cohorts were never really against imperial colonialism. Nor are any of his successors to this day for that matter. Far from it. They were and are, on the other hand, very jealous of its perks and potential benefits and desire them all for themselves. At the time, they simply saw a traitorous opportunity in alliance with the French empire with whom their former British defenders were then engaged in armed conflict. And they acted accordingly. The anti-imperial slogans were merely that. Good for recruiting as they remain today, but totally divorced from any realities.
    
    So, what else is new in US abrogations of treaties and treacherous behavior? Ostensibly opposed to imperial colonialism, indeed! Pardon me whilst I wipe the spat coffee off my keyboard.
    - B.F. on January 30, 2020 · at 10:36 am EST/EDT
      
      Arvy
      According to conservative historians, only 7 % of so-called Americans joined George Washington. According to liberal historians, 25 % joined Washington, while 25 % joined the British. The remaining 50 % stood neutral, failing to understand what was going on, as all of a sudden Washington told them they were ‘Americans’, who for some strange reason spoke the English language. When Washington’s rebellion, known as a ‘revolution’ or ‘war for independence’ was over, you had the spectacle of immigrants to the American colonies emigrating back to Europe. According to one English source from the 18th century, there was not a single town or village in England which did not have American emigrants, who fled the newly created United States.
      
      And yes, you are right. Washington was fond of the imperial touch, as he was a Rothschild’s agent. Until 1776 the American colonies were under Crown control. After 1776 they became a Rothschild’s colony, controlled by free masons, who were later on backed by the US Fed.
      - Arvy on January 30, 2020 · at 11:59 am EST/EDT
        
        “… the spectacle of immigrants to the American colonies emigrating back to Europe.”
        
        Those “United Empire Loyalists” who didn’t move to Canada, that is. There, along with allies among the native populace (notably the Shawnee warrior chief Tecumseh and his people), they once again had to defend against US imperialist expansion tendencies during the war of 1812. And, also once again, those US raiders found that opportunity in their opponents’ preoccupation with an armed conflict with the more notorious French imperialist, Napoleon Bonaparte. Incidentally, Russia also played a rather large part in that outcome.
        
        Contrary to some Mexican claims, they weren’t the first nation to be so honored by the new “anti-imperialist” forces. But, fortunately for the “northern neighbors”, the loyalists and their native supporters there were somewhat more successful this time than during the initial rebellion — although the latter’s ultimate gains were short-lived and debatable at best, and the formers’ remain open to sustained US pressures (mainly industrial-financial “freedom and democracy” exportation) even now.
        
        There really is nothing new to be found in current US imperialist tendencies, nor in its employment of treachery as a means to that end. You’d think that others might have got the message long before now.
  - Alexander P on January 30, 2020 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT
    
    If it were to come to a global war between both Russia and the US there would be no winners. Such a calamity would wipe both civilizations off the map. Humanity would survive, however, and need to start over under an ostensibly very different set of circumstances, possibly with only ‘one government’ remaining.
    
    Just because both countries have intimidating and powerful armies doesn’t mean they cannot be destroyed with today’s weapons and technology. Today Pompeo called the ‘Chinese Communist party the greatest threat of our times’ it is this kind of hubris coupled with imminent economic calamity that can lead to much greater disaster. And while we may gleefully watch the US Empire’s unraveling in the middle-east and elsewhere we mustn’t forget that it could still take us all down with it.
    
    As such I completely concur with Humble Student that we should be praying because we are indeed living through times that have likely been foretold. I have never felt this concerned about global tensions as today.
    - Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:17 pm EST/EDT
      
      “Just because both countries have intimidating and powerful armies doesn’t mean they cannot be destroyed with today’s weapons and technology”.
      
      Indeed, the armies have nothing to do with the actual balance of military power. Armies, no matter how big, are nothing more than targets for the only weapons that matter – missiles. And those missiles can be fied and guided by a relatively tiny handful of people – who don’t need uniforms or guns.
      - Thomas on January 31, 2020 · at 12:04 pm EST/EDT
        
        And of course, what really matters is the ability of these missiles to hit their targets, as Iran has so recently demonstrated.
  - Ron on February 02, 2020 · at 4:18 am EST/EDT
    
    Pretty right-on take. I woud only add that it’s likely Iran based its Soumari cruise missiles, which annihilated Ayn-Assada airbase, on Russian Kalibr cruise missiles. On their first outing against ISIS in Syria, Kalibrs were launched from destroyers in the Caspian Sea. (Kalibrs can even be launched from corvettes) They passed over Iran and Iraq before destroying fifteen ISIS bunker complexes (kindly built by a French cement company, hollowed out by patriotic US Caterpillar machinery). Not one Kalibr missed, said Russia’s Defence Ministry.” O-ho, yes, one did! crowed the Perfumed Princes of Centcom. ‘No they didn’t, replied Boris. ‘One complex required 2 Kalibrs, one on top of another.’
Robert Shule on January 29, 2020 · at 10:09 pm EST/EDT

Just got done watching the movie Crocodile Dundie II. Hmmm, I see the empire going down just like the bad guys in the movie; nice and smooth, one by one. As only desperate men do desperate things, they have shown their their cards, and they do not have much of a hand. It is only a matter of time now….
….pass the pop corn.
- Humble Student :| on January 29, 2020 · at 10:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  I sure hope so!
  
  Maybe we are finally entering a multi-polar world absent of Empire, like Saker seems to believe.
  
  But, honestly, I doubt it.
  
  It is not wise to under-estimate Satan (the real one).
  
  Hope for the best… BUT PREPARE FOR THE WORST! :|
  - Alabama on January 30, 2020 · at 7:46 am EST/EDT
    
    satan is an ideology, one that demands perfection of their own ideals, in a manner of their choosing. Soon as the big questions arise, they shut their mouths and refuse to talk b/c they dont want to get caught involved a sin of their own making. One of my better ones for him is “do children wake themselves up sexually or does some 3rd party intervene to wake them up?” He usually hasn’t much to say about this one, what say you?
    - Tomsen on February 01, 2020 · at 7:08 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Alabama
      Excuse me, but the joke about children is ridiculous and not interesting, only for pedos. This said in principle terms
      Satan is a brilliant intelligent top angel Superman, but he is wrong about the Creation and that’s why he WILL lose……in the end!
  - ababush on January 30, 2020 · at 11:35 am EST/EDT
    
    “Maybe we are finally entering a multi-polar world absent of Empire, like Saker seems to believe. But, honestly, I doubt it”
    
    We already are living in a multipolar world, with USA, China and Russia having global reach. Still, the real empire is the one of banksters, and they do not really care about nations and empires: they clearly intend to dump the US empire as they previously dumped the Europeans empires. And China is today as much as the US vulnerable to the banksters power. Only Russia seems to have some means to resist the globalist banksters, and it is no small business that they recently forbid power positions to dual citizens.
    - Robert Shule on January 30, 2020 · at 2:03 pm EST/EDT
      
      Also, consider Cuba. They have long resisted global banksters, are quite successful, and they are a small country at that. Can they possibly be a model for other small States? Their success I believe is in addition to restraining the money mammon their economy is based on diversity rather than oil.
    - Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 6:50 pm EST/EDT
      
      Exactly!
      
      That’s been my point all along about Satan’s Empire: it’s NOT the “American Empire”.
      
      The USA (with nukes!) just happens to be the current host nation of Satan’s Empire.
      
      And yes you are correct, Satan is almost finished milking and raping the USA, for all it’s been worth!
      
      Soon, Satan will just move on to the next major world government (maybe… godless communist China?) and continue his dastardly work of uniting all of his power and finally forcing his depraved and degenerate One World Order on everyone! All those who will not bow down to Satan’s Order will be hunted down and murdered.
      
      But in Jesus Christ we do NOT fear death.
      
      Saker, I will tell you now how VERY thankful I am for your blog, which is a Christian blog. Thank you!
      
      THANK YOU, Saker!!!
      
      Therefore, since this is a Christian-owned blog, please stop censoring so many of my posts. In the past 3 days, at least 25% of my posts have been censored by the moderators. Why is that, my dear brother Saker?
Larchmonter445 on January 29, 2020 · at 10:29 pm EST/EDT

One of your better efforts, Saker, and that’s saying something special.

You begin with the piercing facts of the Iranian missile strike and what really happened, and complete the summary with the psychological state of affairs between Iran and the Hegemon. No fear of the immense power of the US and its vassals, no fear of Israel and its secret atomic bombs, no fear of CENTCOM and its drone strikes.

A reality check as simple as checking the oil in your engine. Pull the dipstick, measure the fluid. Done.

Iran will drive the US out of the ME. Many of its friends and allies will help in their own asymmetrical ways.

King Kong will tumble from the Empire State building. The script is immutable. Get out the popcorn.
- Mario Medjeral on January 30, 2020 · at 1:25 am EST/EDT
  
  Agreed and of Trump’s latest ‘DealOfTheCentury’ for Palestina without any consultation of Palestinians is imperialist ‘orientalism’ as defined by Edward Said. People do not read anymore…
- the master on January 30, 2020 · at 4:57 am EST/EDT
  
  However, I miss a few words by The Saker on the fact that Putin’s Russia will always back up Israel, and it is as sad as it seems. Ooops, and even if it means to accept some harm to Russia’s interests, not only in Middle East but in Russia itself!
  The latest Putin’s speach in Jerusalem should have been bold and clear in such a way as that one of Yakov Kedmi at Solovyev”s studio – i.e. mentioning and accusing Ukraine and Poland namely (Putin even omitted to mention the word German as usual when speaking about fascism, and even if sometimes mentioning Poland tearing up Czechoslovakia in 1938 he forgets about Hungary participating – by the way H. was the first ever fascist state even before Italy!).
  Wondering why the holocaust hype for 75 years is feeded not only for excusing the Israel’s apartheid and blackmailing of the West, but also for dumping into dirt the forgotten death of 27 million Soviet victims with 20 mil. of them being civilians which makes it a genocide!
  Hey, Mr Putin, make the world (or at least some 50 heads of states as in Jerusalem) to remember and pay respect to the suffering and heroism of your country (which liberated also other nations unlike the Jews ever did, not even speaking of Israel). Track and criminalize at least by Russian penal code applicable worldwide all the scum who deny it (the genocode of Oviet people), its time with the changes in Constitution, not only to penalize the denials of holocaust. 🛂
  Any comments on this? 🙋
  - TMWNS on January 30, 2020 · at 9:08 am EST/EDT
    
    Russia-Israel : a Special Relationship ?
    
    Reply to : the master on January 30, 2020 · at 4:57 am EST/EDT
    /u-s-posture-in-the-middle-east-preparing-for-disaster/#comment-752934.
    
    I get the distinct impression that most Russians have little regard for Arabs in general and Palestinians in particular. Possibly Iranians are not their cup of tea either. It’s a profoundly continental indifference which doubtless extends to most ‘foreigners’. But as the founder of this website may possibly feel inclined to remind you, the Russian Federation tries to align its diplomacy and foreign policy with the supposed dictates of international law and a multitude of UN resolutions which endeavour to ease the plight of the Palestinians and re-establish their basic rights.
    
    All of which is obviously a credit to the Russians. Even so the Soviet Union was a prime mover in the post WWII creation of the Holohoax mythology at Nuremberg. Moreover, as Iranian historian Mohammad Gholi Majd and researcher Mansoureh Tajik both point out, Iran suffered the worst holocaust of the 20th century in the 1917-1919 famine – induced, one might say engineered, by the Anglo-Russian occupation of that benighted nation (Cf. infra).
    
    An event about which there is a clearly a world wide conspiracy to maintain radio silence. As to the cordiality of the ‘special relationship’ between Vladimir Putin and the leaders of the gangster state in the Middle East – the one that set the ball rolling with the assassination of JFK in 1963 and began reaping the rewards post 9/11 – Putin’s very keen to keep his powder dry and he has yet to come clean on what the FSB knows about the missiles and small nuclear devices bombs used against New York and Washington. He probably is fully briefed about Benjamin Netanyahu’s rôle and involvement, but prefers to smile and shake hands with that thoroughly evil being and his confederates. This is no figment of your imagination.
    
    The all-too-numerous Russian speaking, non-Hebrew speaking settlers in the Occupied Territories on the West Bank testify to one of the reasons for this sad state of affairs. Putin is a pragmatist who needs and maybe wants to keep his nose clean with respect to those ‘apatride’ people running the central banking system and the shadowy practices of Fractional-reserve banking and he rarely, if ever, allows moral considerations to impinge upon what’s best for Moscow (Cf. infra).
    
    Population Control via Extermination, Reduction, and Machination : Case Examples of US Armed Personnel and Iranian People Mansoureh Tajik 6660 Views December 24, 2019 24 Comments | /population-control-via-extermination-reduction-and-machination-case-examples-of-us-armed-personnel-and-iranian-people/.
    
    Special treatment ? Actions speak louder than words :
    
    Putin pardons drug-trafficking Israeli woman ahead of Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow 29 Jan, 2020
    17:49 / Updated 19 hours ago https://www.rt.com/news/479512-putin-pardon-israeli-woman/
    
    Vladimir Poutine gracie une Israélo-Américaine avant une visite de Benjamin Netanyahou en Russie 29 janv. 2020 – Avec AFP
    https://francais.rt.com/international/70884-vladimir-poutine-gracie-israelo-americaine-visite-benjamin-netanyahou-russie.
    
    The Last Days of the “Holocaust” Eric Striker • January 29, 2020 • 1,100 Words •
    62 Comments • Reply https://www.unz.com/estriker/the-last-days-of-the-holocaust/.
    - Pamela on January 30, 2020 · at 9:54 am EST/EDT
      
      “Putin pardons drug-trafficking Israeli woman ahead of Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow 29 Jan, 2020”
      
      it would be as well to read the words of Putin regarding this issue before drawing conclusions. He stated that he was able to grant the pardon “because – thank God for her sake – the drugs never crossed the border of the RF into Russia proper – they were discovered in a suitcase between flights”.
      Clearly he is saying that he is only able to grant the pardon because of that legal loophole.
      The “Thank God for her” clearly states that, had she actually brought them over the border into Russia proper, he would not, could not, have pardoned her.
      - perplexed on January 30, 2020 · at 5:03 pm EST/EDT
        
        still, according to Israel Shamir the state of Israel has recently extradited a russian hacker to the US
        https://www.palestine-solidarite.org/analyses.israel_shamir.260120.htm
    - Cosimo on January 30, 2020 · at 10:01 am EST/EDT
      
      @TMWNS The most useful part of your comment is about the 1917-1919 famine in Iran. Indeed, this is little known in the West, even by otherwise very well-informed people. Giving the names of Mohammad Gholi Majd and Mansoureh Tajik means this can be searched on the web and brought to light.
      
      But you make two points which are not valid.
      
      You assert that Russians may not have much respect for Iran, but you have no facts to offer, not even personal anecdotes. I have no facts to argue the opposite except this: Russians respect education and civilizations, which Iran has in abundance. So your assertion is dubious at best.
      
      The Israeli-American woman was busted for 10 grams of hashish, a bit more than a third of an ounce. Monetary value, under a thousand dollars at most. Plenty for personal consumption, not enough for dealing. She got 7 years in prison because drugs have devastated Russia, and the anti-drug crowd doesn’t tend to distinguish one illegal drug from another. But the Kremlin made a rational decision to forego the expense of a prisoner for 7 years, since this wasn’t heroin, meth, or krokodil. The only thing that really sucks is that Netanyahu was able to pick up an almost worthless token of Russia’s subservience to Israeli supremacy. But that gesture is really meaningless on the scale of things.
      - Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:22 pm EST/EDT
        
        Compare this:
        
        U.S. Veteran Sentenced to Life in Prison for Selling Less Than a Gram of Weed
        https://thefreethoughtproject.com/life-in-prison-less-gram-weed/
      - Per/Norway on January 31, 2020 · at 3:10 pm EST/EDT
        
        10 grams of Hashis is ca 12-1500NKR (135-170$)
        So i would not exactly call her a “big time” drug smuggler, that is a very small amount of drugs.
        In some European countries you may have 25 grams in your possession in Norway you get fined..
  - ababush on January 30, 2020 · at 11:48 am EST/EDT
    
    When you deal with Israel, you deal with very very dangerous people (see https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-mossad-assassinations/).
    Any head of state has to take that into account. Therefore, the best for Putin (and for any head of state) is to act as if he was “friend” with Netanyau and pretend submission. Use proxies (and Iran might be one) for action.
  - Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 2:08 pm EST/EDT
    
    There are a lot of dual citizens in both Russia and Israel.
    They are a political force to reckon with, just like in the USA.
    That certainly explains some portion of Putin’s caution.
    
    Katherine
    - MarkinPNW on January 30, 2020 · at 10:19 pm EST/EDT
      
      And is likely behind Putin’s proposed reforms to make any such “dual citizen” ineligible to hold any high office in the Government of the Russian Federation.
  - Kampfbeobachter on January 30, 2020 · at 11:06 pm EST/EDT
    
    About 1 million Russians have emigrated from Russia to Israel. Putin can and will not abandon them as diaspora Jews/ Russians. We must not overlook this in the present ME situation.
  - Pavlo on January 31, 2020 · at 6:46 am EST/EDT
    
    Russia backing Israel… sigh…
    
    Like in vetoing UN résolutions against Israel? Oh, wait it isn’t Russia…
    Maybe providing top of the art missile defenses to Israel? Oh, wait, no, Russia isn’t providing S400 to Israel.
    Maybe by going full mouthed against the “Syrian regime” after the downing of a Russian plane? Well. Again no, it was the other way: Russia publicly and strongly declared Israel was fully responsible for it.
    Maybe siding with Israel against Iran? Again no. All visible hints show that Russia is in synch with Iran. And in the UN Russia actually trashed the US attempt to diplomatically condemn the Iranians “slap in the face”
    
    The claim about “Russia backing Israel” should be done with some proofs; shouldn’t it?
    
    Now. It is true that Russia don’t do high rethorics against it either. But you know what? Russia is not at war with Israel either.
    
    But to my knowledge Israel doesn’t have a foothold in Russian military. How much countries can claim the same? Israel doesn’t dictate the WW2 memory in Russia either. Again, how many countries can claim the same?
- MC on January 30, 2020 · at 5:19 am EST/EDT
  
  Great article, again, Saker.
  Larch is correct: your analysis confirms our hope that Iran is able to fight to the end, and will.
  This war is not only for Iran and the ME, but for the whole world.
  Regards, and good work. We miss you when you don’t show for a few days…
ComAnd on January 29, 2020 · at 10:33 pm EST/EDT

I think the typo in beginning is meant to be Iraq.

Funny Iranian quote – “Our goodness and greatness doesn’t stand out to them, because we don’t choose to smash it on their head”
jiri on January 29, 2020 · at 10:35 pm EST/EDT

“Right now, I would say that the chances of that truly happening are microscopically small. After all, who could seriously imagine the U.S. leaving either Saudi Arabia or Israel? Ain’t gonna happen short of a true cataclysm.”

As the Resistance steps up its attacks the cost to the US will increase. At some point the US must decide if it is worth the cost. The initiative is with Iran as to the level of cost to be incurred on the US.

The bigger danger is that the US will realise (probably already does?) that the only way it can prevail is by using nuclear weapons. The US has a track record of using nuclear weapons gratuitously with the flimsiest of pretexts.
- Humble Student :| on January 29, 2020 · at 10:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  Right, Satan (the real one!) is just itching to start using those nukes!!! :|
  
  The big problem is that Satan is stronger than any Iran.
  
  And stronger than any Russia.
  
  The best we can hope for… is the sane resistance of all righteous creatures in this world, to just buy us and future generations as much more time as possible before Satan finally FORCES his Dark One World Order successfully on the entire planet.
  
  The information war is really a spiritual war: Satan, the Great Deceiver, hiding the truth while successfully persuading more and more people to submit their minds to him! In this dear old world of ours, the insane majority is growing while the sane minority is shrinking. How poor and sick we have all become… resistance is futile! But resist we must, even though Satan (the real one) is stronger than us (because Satan already controls the minds of the majority.
  
  And let us not fear, because Help is coming even though our defeat seems sure!
  - Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 2:22 am EST/EDT
    
    Satan is not stronger than us. It may seem like it, but all it takes is for the truth to shine again and Satan and all his millions will be finished, for good.
Anonymous on January 29, 2020 · at 10:43 pm EST/EDT

traumatic brain injury was just the opening salvo. the body bags are coming… the iraqi public are marching while the militants are firing their katyushas. soleimani’s murder will not be in vain. he was turn to thousands of pieces by a hellfire missile but those bodily pieces became more soleimanis! the persian zealots are now on the move 24/7. the idiot orange president in the white house is now fair game. ivanka is fair game and so with kushner. pompeo is now fair game to the zealots and so with esper. if the d’ andreas recent demise is true, i suspect the persian zealots are now working with their afghan counterparts.
LT on January 29, 2020 · at 11:05 pm EST/EDT

Re: the attached map, the “Vision for Peace”.

The Zionist map shouts to future generations one clear-cut message:
“We did not want peace”
- Cosimo on January 30, 2020 · at 10:12 am EST/EDT
  
  1. Trump’s map shows the illegally-occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel. The Russian ambassador to the UN made this point very recently.
  
  2. I’ve read many times over the years that on the wall of the Knesset is a map of “Greater Israel” which stretches from the Nile to the Euphrates, i.e. from Cairo to Baghdad.
  
  For the Zios, peace is what they say to the victims so they don’t resist. I don’t believe the Zios have ever written about or otherwise discussed what they would consider a Final Solution, where Israel would have “all it wants and no more.” So there may be no limit to their appetite.
  - eagle eye on January 31, 2020 · at 4:10 am EST/EDT
    
    As incisive as it is, this analysis fails where all similar analysing of anything to do with the USA and Israel at the level of military actions fail.
    
    The military actions are largely a sideshow to distract the plebs while behind the scenes all of mankind’s administrative and intellectual systems are being riddled with individuals whose loyalty is not to any particular nation state but to the goal of a one world government system.
    
    Clever thieves always distract their victims.
    
    Once you know this, analysing the distraction becomes a secondary task, behind identifying who the thieves are and what they are trying to steal.
    - Alabama on January 31, 2020 · at 7:17 am EST/EDT
      
      Except the goal never gets fully reached, there is always a different entity to trump the prevailing beliefs, and then the wars begin, and the whole thing starts all over again.
      - eagle eye on January 31, 2020 · at 12:59 pm EST/EDT
        
        Very true, and humanity repeatedly allows the identity of the thieves fall down the memory hole.
        
        It is, and forever will be, an endless round of pain and misery while ever one small group believe they were put on this earth to rule over everyone else by their “god”.
        
        Such is the nature of an inter-generational narcissistic cult.
Humble Student :| on January 29, 2020 · at 11:10 pm EST/EDT

Don’t forget these refreshing words from Saker Blog’s Philosophy:

Ephesians 6:12

Matthew 10:26

John 8:32
- Ponder on January 30, 2020 · at 2:35 am EST/EDT
  
  Humble student
  Satan will indeed rule, but not the way u think. In revelation 13, the dragon (Satan) gave his power; spiritual, to the beast (notice their similar characteristics but different entities) and also power to another entity; image unto the beast (USA). Now, follow closely the prophecy and see that satan will rule through the beast and not through the image unto the beast (usa). Actually, Russia will destroy USA through nuclear weapons, when the USA becomes totally uncontrollable.
  - Humble Student :| on January 30, 2020 · at 3:38 am EST/EDT
    
    Hmmm… my point really was that Satan’s Empire is what needs to be addressed first, in order to understand what is really going on in this world.
    
    Terrestrially, are you saying that Russia will take over as the main power after destroying the USA? Then, would Russia become Satan’s vehicle to finish subjugating the whole world???
    
    Either way, Russia is NOT our savior!
    
    Saker, please continue telling everyone who our Savior is!!! :)
    
    Christ, Whose kingdom is NOT of this world
    The Saker
Anonymous on January 29, 2020 · at 11:34 pm EST/EDT

“US Americans have been brainwashed into believing that major wars can be won on the cheap. Iranians have no such illusions (most certainly not after Iraq, backed by the USA, the USSR and Europe, attacked Iran and inflicted immense destruction on the Iranian society). But the era of “wars on the cheap” is now long over.”

America may have limited military options in the Middle East or beyond.

But American wars are not limited to the military dimension.

American wars entail manipulating and weaponizing all facets of society including:

1). Economic such as the use of sanctions/siege warfare, trade wars, and American Dollar Imperialism.
2). Political such as regime change, destabilization, or balkanization campaigns–dressed up as (snicker) “Pro-Democracy” movements.
3). Diplomatic such as the use of “international” organizations like the UN, ICC, OPCW to isolate and assault a nation.
4). Religious such as the USA/NATO’s current attempt to subvert the Orthodox Church in the Balkans. See Stephen Karganovic’s article “Target Orthodox Church: NATO’s Eastern Crusades.”
5). Information war based upon thinly disguised media smear campaigns against a targeted state.
6). Non-conventional war such as the use of cyber terrorism (e.g. the American-Israeli Stuxnet virus); ethnic-specific bioweapons; weather manipulation, etc.

America will try to fight “war on the cheap” by using these other non-military forms of warfighting.

Iran–and indeed ALL nations that are on American Empire’s target list–must be prepared to resist the USA in all of these warfighting domains.
- Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:44 pm EST/EDT
  
  Now consider how many of those methods of waging war can be turned around and used against the USA. Americans are prone to imagining that their designated “antagonists” do not harm them because they can’t; whereas in fact the main reason is the “antagonists” have morals and respect for law.
  
  However, when the USA commits acts of war against a country, international law allows retaliation by any military or other means (short of war crimes). And moral scruples cannot prevent retaliation for ever, under constantly increasing provocation.
  
  1). Economic such as the use of sanctions/siege warfare, trade wars, and American Dollar Imperialism.
  
  To be met (and eventually defeated) by reciprocal sanctions, the development of internal resources or altenative trading partners, and progressive elimination of the dollar and all its associated institutions. When Washington insists “My ball, my rules”, it will eventually find itself trying to play ball with itself as everyone else will have gone away.
  
  2). Political such as regime change, destabilization, or balkanization campaigns–dressed up as (snicker) “Pro-Democracy” movements.
  
  Such means can best be resisted by the increasing awareness of such sites as The Vineyard of the Saker (and dozens of others). All such political subversion will fail in proportion as the target communities are well-informed and understand Washington’s techniques and goals. (And their own dispensability in the long term).
  
  3). Diplomatic such as the use of “international” organizations like the UN, ICC, OPCW to isolate and assault a nation.
  
  Such “global” organizations were mostly set up by US resources and funding, and thus remain under the control of Washington. Much is already being done to reveal to public gaze the shameful venality of OPCW, and how its bosses have ignored the work and conclusions of their own experts. The ICC needs to establish that its writ runs everywhere – and if the USA tries to exclude itself and its citizens from the ICC’s jurisdiction, it should be met by universal condemnation and ostracism. As for the UN, it should be removed from US soil and relocated in some more neutral country such as Switzerland or India. (My favourite is Libya).
  
  4). Religious such as the USA/NATO’s current attempt to subvert the Orthodox Church in the Balkans.
  
  Perhaps some blowback might ensure if the proclaimed religious affiliations and beliefs of Washington were to be publicly compared with its acts. (E.g. “Whom would Jesus bomb?”)
  
  5). Information war based upon thinly disguised media smear campaigns against a targeted state.
  
  Again, the answer to this lies in the establishment and dissemination of reliable and reasonably impartial alternative media. The Western MSM has done a magnificanet job of discrediting itself, and all intelligent people of good will are searching for better sources of news and opinion. Besides, if Washington wishes to harm China, it will not to it much good to persuade its brainwashed and clueless US citizenry. People in China, Russia, the rest of Asia, much of Africa and South America, and even parts of Europe will not believe a word they see in the Western MSM.
  
  6). Non-conventional war such as the use of cyber terrorism (e.g. the American-Israeli Stuxnet virus); ethnic-specific bioweapons; weather manipulation, etc.
  
  “People who live in glasshouses should not throw stones”; the USA possesses the biggest, most elaborate and most fragile glasshouse in the world. It would be child’s play for any competent computer subversion group to cut off electricity supplies, thus stopping water supplies, food supplies, communication and many other functions without which the USA would grind to halt. The same applies to weather manipulation, which is probably impractical anyway. Ethnic-specific bioweapons can hardly be used against the USA, because it is a mixture of all conceivable ethnicities. Oh wait… doesn’t that mean that any ethnic-specific bioweapon would be certain to attack some US citizens?
  
  In short, the decent peoples of the world merely have to wait for the roof to fall in on the American Babylon. Should Washington get agitated before that happens, well, there are always targeted missile strikes… and if necessary the whole USA could be sterilized.
- Craig Mouldey on January 30, 2020 · at 4:37 pm EST/EDT
  
  You just stated what I’m thinking. They have an entire bag of dirty tricks to use. The entire world of nations needs a different economic system not being run by the same group of globalists for one. Then the U.S. sanctions will lose their teeth. Especially since the dollar will not be the weaponized world reserve currency. And why do we need a reserve currency?
  They don’t need to occupy an entire country. Just the area where the oil fields are! Before someone suggests they will be easy targets or their supply lines will be cut off, well, can they show me an example of this happening yet? They have Iraq’s oil fields and have threatened to seize their ‘bank account’ at the Federal Reserve. For all they don’t like, they seize their overseas gold holdings and other resources and then proceed to starve the nation to death. How this is stopped without causing a major shooting match I don’t know. Direct pain has to be inflicted on the empire’s population I would think.
  Having said all this, they have no intention of leaving the M.E./Asia. I understand they are building 3 new bases in Iraq near the Iran border.
  This so called deal of the century seemed more like a gangster business deal, as in we like you and we are going to protect you and help you but you will pay us. And if you say no then something bad might happen. Was their a veiled threat from the golden wonder when he said this may be the last chance the Palesinians ever get for peace? It sounds more like a recipe for full on genocide.
- Anonymous on January 31, 2020 · at 7:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  But wait!
  
  There’s even more areas of a society that the Anglo American Empire attempts to weaponize:
  
  7). Legal jurisprudence (or what is called Lawfare) such as the “corruption” investigation of Brazilian leaders like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the infamous Car Wash scandal.
  
  8). Immigrant and expatriate communities living in the USA, which the Americans will cynically to manipulate as US proxies against their home nations. Yasha Levine, whose family were Soviet Jews that immigrated to the USA, documents this American strategy as it was applied to his own family and in general
  
  Immigrants as a Weapon: Global Nationalism and American Power
  https://yasha.substack.com/p/immigrants-as-a-weapon-global-nationalism
  
  9). Sports such as the ban on Russian athletes from competing under the Russian flag at the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics
  
  10). Sexuality such as the hijacking of LGBTQ rights and even trans/gender fluidity as a weapon to attack traditional societies, particularly those outside of the West or in the Global South.
  
  Western ‘Political Correctness’ Does Not Make All People Equal
  https://www.greanvillepost.com/2020/01/19/western-political-correctness-does-not-make-all-people-equal/
  
  When you stand back and watch it in action, it really is amazing how the Anglo-American Empire can manipulate *any* issue and militarize it as a weapon of war.
  
  Call this Hybrid Warfare.
  
  Call it 4th Generation Warfare.
  
  Or call it Full Spectrum Civilizational Warfare (aka Total War)
  
  But the Anglo Americans make Doctor Strangelove seem like a peace-loving, pot-smoking hippy in comparison!
Twilight Patriot on January 30, 2020 · at 12:52 am EST/EDT

Honestly, at this point I’m not sure what to think of the results of Iran’s missile attack. It leaves enough ambiguity that both sides can plausibly claim victory. Though there is a good chance this way by design: i.e. Iran wants to look tough and prove it can hurt the Americans, while leaving America the option to de-escalate without losing face, which is what it looks like America did.

I think that the most important development to come out of the Soleimani assassination is the way it is feeding into the continued breakdown of the United States’ system of alliances.

The blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty, and Iraq’s subsequent decision to expel US troops (which the official government is too timid to act on but which many militias aren’t) is the biggest blow. But doing this without consulting any other members of the anti-ISIS coalition – i.e. Russia, Turkey, Syria, EU, UK – many of whom saw Soleimani as a valuable ally against ISIS, has pushed all those countries further along the road to estrangement from the US as well.

So overall, this looks like a clear strategic win for Iran. It is an old principle of military scheming, going back at least to Sun Tzu, that to fracture the enemy’s alliances is better than a direct attack. And after what has happened in the Middle East over the past two weeks, America has very few allies left.

https://www.twilightpatriot.com/2020/01/oppression-at-home-and-liberty-abroad.html
- Stand Easy on January 30, 2020 · at 3:24 am EST/EDT
  
  It is an old principle of military scheming, going back at least to Sun Tzu…
  
  Indeed and it’s not as if the colonels and generals have never heard of him.
  
  https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/special-series/great-strategists/sun-tzu-art-war-great-strategists-episode-2/
- Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  Iran’s response was devastatingly subtle and unanswerable. Indeed, that very subtlety and the technological sophistication shown should frighten the Americans most of all.
  
  Politically, the harm done was small and deniable enough that the Washington creatures can pretend it didn’t happen. Hence, no need to beat their chests, shout and foam at the mouth, or demand nuclear strikes. That was deliberate.
  
  Militarily, anyone with half a clue knows that all the US military assets within 1,000 km or so of Iran are no longer assets but hostages. The missile attacks were not intended to do any particular harm: they were proofs of capability. If each missile had carried a 1,000 kg warhead…
  
  The Pentagon knows it; the CIA knows it; the British MoD knows it; and Tel Aviv knows it. Tel Aviv most of all, as any massive attack on Iran will result in the sky falling on Israel.
  
  I am hopeful, and indeed fairly confident, that if the political leaders of any of those nations were to demand a massive attack on Iran the reply would be a firm “No!”
  
  And if the request were pushed harder, or backed up with threats, I hope that the military leaders would have the insane politicians arrested (and optionally tried for treason, on grounds of trying to get all their citizens killed).
- Pavlo on January 31, 2020 · at 3:05 am EST/EDT
  
  The results are absolutely clear.
  
  And ironically Trump himself contributed a lot to the shining of the strike. Indeed the big Stark contrast between the prestrike tweets (we will annihilate Iran and destroy cultural sites) and the poststrike actions (no counter strike at all not even big mouth treats) can be seen by all.
  
  There is also another thing that I haven’t seen commented yet.
  Iran claimed almost immediately 80 casualties. US said first no casualties. Then a few ones but small injuries. Then actually they are more and stronger injuries…
  The final count seems to be reaching that 80 figure.
  
  So. The Iranians knew a rather accurate information on casualties very early.
  The only possibly is that they have inside Intel…
Paul Schmutz Schaller on January 30, 2020 · at 1:53 am EST/EDT

It is clear for me that, in January 2020, the Middle East – and the whole world – has seen a fundamental change. While this is quite obvious and while I can see the different events which took place in Iran, in Iraq, and elsewhere, I am still struggling in order to really adapt to the new situation. I must say that the Saker Blog is indeed very helpful in this respect, not only by this article, but also by the various voices from the Middle East which are published on the blog.

I very strongly feel that something in my mind has changed during this January. But what exactly? I try to understand this.

One point is that, obviously, I have lost respect for Western Europe. Their worries have lost interest for me. They try to maintain their illusion of a parallel world, but „their“ world has become way too distant to the real world. I have also the feeling that they lost their faith. The faith in the case of the West. And now, they are like somebody who is „patiently“ waiting that the disaster (for them) will happen. It is true that I cannot „prove“ this by facts, it is „just“ a feeling, but I have learned to take this kind of feelings very seriously.

Another point is that, visibly, I need the help from voices of the Middle East in order to adapt to the new situation. They have taken the lead and, I think, that we should be sufficiently humble in order to accept this.
- Barkus (I.W.) on January 30, 2020 · at 2:58 am EST/EDT
  
  Interestingly, Paul, I have had almost the exact same experience during the past month. Almost to the point where, you’re wondering, am I still living in the same old world or is it just appearance, whilst in reality – on another plane- we’ve moved somewhere else. This is a great site for sharing thoughts and yes, great analysis from Saker, priceless how he brings his former experience as a NATO military analyst to bear, for the learning and inspiration of all who enjoy visiting this blog.
  - Dr.NG Maroudas on January 30, 2020 · at 3:54 am EST/EDT
    
    @Barkus and Paul: “Another point is that, visibly, I need the help from voices of the Middle East in order to adapt to the new situation. They have taken the lead and, I think, that we should be sufficiently humble in order to accept this.”
    
    I recommend listening to Dr.Assad and First Lady Asme (and more important, watching their videos). You will find their Shia ethos, in word and deed, contains the best elements of ancient Christianity and modern Rational Humanism. Listen to the way they speak, watch their social actions, appraise the way they pull their war torn country together — and compare them with our own dear Queen and Prime Minister.
    
    Also read and re-read Ramin Mazaheri, an Iranian Islamic Communist reporting in the Saker Vineyard from a France that is in social turmoil with many wounded and some already killed on the streets. Compare the doings of Iran and the sayings of their Leaders with the words and deeds of Sarkozy, Hollande and Micron. Modern French philosophy is trash — and I say that as a lifelong Francophile.
    
    The ancient Greeks copied Syrian models and used their Persian connections to trade goods and philosophy with India and Afghanistan. The modern EU (which has its civic, cultural and religious roots in the Hellenistic Empire of Alexander (Greece, the Balkans, the Black Sea, Syria, Egypt, Persia, Afghanistan and Western India) can humbly follow that lead by the ancient Greeks. I recommend 2 books: Archaic Greek Art, and The Shape of Ancient Thought. East-West communication, cultural as well as mercantile, is at least 5000 years old: “the merchant along the Great Silk Road with a bag of books among his goods”.
    
    The Yanks are learning the hard way that one of their favorite sayings, History is Bunk, is bunk. And they have just had another nasty jolt when another of their favourite illusions, The End of History, came to a sudden end with the resurgence of Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and now Libya. Look at the MichelAngelo frescos in the Vatican — among them is the Libyan Sybil; she is sending you a message which you seem ripe to receive.
    - Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 12:56 pm EST/EDT
      
      “The Yanks are learning the hard way that one of their favorite sayings, History is Bunk, is bunk”.
      
      Not exactly. The rich and powerful have a vested interested in preventing the rest of us from learning the lessons of history. Which means that it is in our interests to do so.
      
      “For the powerful, history is bunk. The weak don’t have that luxury”.
      
      – Noam Chomsky (interview with Jeremy Paxman, BBC Radio, April 2011).
      
      A longer explanation, but well worth while reading:
      
      “So we find in antiquity, through Sumer, Babylonia, Greece and Rome, that whenever a financial oligarchy has taken power, it has created a depression – a disaster and an economic collapse. Almost all ancient historians have found this. This is what Livy and Dionysius wrote about in their histories of Rome. And Plutarch. That’s why the free-enterprise boys today in the United States have stopped teaching economic history in the economic curriculum. If you go to get an economics degree in the United States, you no longer study history. It’s out of the curriculum. You don’t even study the history of economic thought. It’s as if economics began in 1980 with Margaret Thatcher, Milton Friedman and other right wingers.
      
      “The result is a censorship about how civilization has been evolving for the last few thousand years, and how it has dealt with debt issues”.
      
      https://michael-hudson.com/2020/01/equilibrium-theory-and-near-east-economics/
- augusto2 on January 30, 2020 · at 8:25 am EST/EDT
  
  Schaller, sounds having a German name but you speak like a non-european.
  I agree with you in most points mentioned and overall picture.
  And the same on the need to conform our thinking to new realities.
  But above all we should give the europeans a chance by hammering upon their minds – how?myGod- the flwg few undeniable facts.
  1-The western type of ‘ democracy’ is not the only topping of the only cake, the best people s way of government possible in the world. There are other patters of democratic ruling on different people.
  2-Egocentrism of maximum core and pursuit of individual happiness are the basis of CAPITALISM – and so the basis of our rotten – I meam r.o.t.t.e.n.
  democracies of our time.
  3-Egocentrist mentality came from , was incentived by and heated up to boiling by: a) Renaissance with its values b) Protestant reform in Europe c) French revolution – at the very time of initial industrial Revolution…
  
  4- Chinese, Russian and Indias – with Japanese aside- societies NEVER HAD any renaissance, any lutheran reform or any robespierres. (The ruthless rulers they had were of their own internal faith and breed)
  So how come the Chinese people have confidence and support their leaders, for such along time – with unmatched sucess, with one singly Party, the CCP?
  The day the europeans and Americans understand this, the world will change forever.
vot tak on January 30, 2020 · at 2:36 am EST/EDT

This photo of israel’s gofers:

http://dxczjjuegupb.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/US-leaders-ratio-changed-768×329.jpg

Reminded me of a tune by John Lennon.

John Lennon Crippled Inside (Official Promo)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S6CdpAhwpw8

“you can shine you’re shoes
and wear a suit
you can comb your hair
and look quite cute
you can hide your face
behind a smile
one thing you can’t hide
is when you’re crippled inside
you wear a mask
and paint your face
you can call yourself
the human race
you can wear a collar
and a tie
but the one thing you
can’t hide is when you’re
crippled inside
well now you know that your
cat has nine lives babe
nine loves to itself
but you only got one
and a dog life ain’t no fun
mamma take a look outside.
you can go to church
and sing a hymn
judge me by the color
of my skin
you can live a lie until you die
one thing you can’t hide
is when you’re crippled inside.”
Dr.NG Maroudas on January 30, 2020 · at 3:10 am EST/EDT

(*geschrei: the Yiddish word for yelling, crying out, to shriek)

Schrei is also the German word for shriek. No coincidence: the Romans found the Germans to be great traders – and Rome had a large Jewish population. “Two thousand years among us”.
ActivePatriot on January 30, 2020 · at 3:15 am EST/EDT

Great analysis Saker.

The burning question I have in my mind that would help get an idea of what is to come is this:

Did the US choose not to try to shoot down Iranian cruise missiles and, if so, why?

I have not read anywhere that US tried to shoot missiles down, given warning that an attack was imminent. This means that a command decision was made to put a certain number of US troops in grave danger to “allow Iranian retaliatory attack” to an extent they would hope Iran is satisfied.

If that is true, it is a fear based decision. One that indicates they know just how bad they screwed up with that insidious and evil assassination of Soleimani during a diplomatic visit to Iraq.

It does not change the fact that US commanders allowed their troops to be sacrificial lambs. That is a grave betrayal to their own troops in my opinion. One done out of fear, letting your brothers in arms be sacrificed out of fear to take actions to protect them.

Or maybe it was fear of showing the Patriot missile system not being up to task and far less effective than billed to be. Or fear of showing just how exposed your troops are despite your best efforts to protect them.

The point is that if truly a decision was made to not attempt to shoot down those missiles, it is a critical piece of information as to why that decision was made. So critical that it changes the nature of the fight there substantially.

US troops are battle hardened after close to 20 years. Battle hardened for a fight on the ground at all intensities we’ve seen so far in that time. But cruise missiles raining down on your base at any time with little defense to it, they have not seen that. They have not seen a war where they have had to worry about threats from the skies above from a distance they cannot strike back at. That is something else. Like you said Saker, that is them getting shoved against a wall and that hasn’t happened in a very long time.

I watched that video of US troops getting interviewed after attack and saying what is was like. They were softies, in rear with gear types. Drone base that deals death from above from a distance, they whined like victims when the same came for them.

I have followed closely the Syrian war since before it even really kicked off. Warfare evolved substantially and the US cannot control the battlefield like they once did. Drone and EW warfare are not confined to an exclusive club anymore. A backwater country like Yemen can strike back in a way that would make a bully country think twice now. I like that evolution, it deters wars for stupid reasons.
- Dr.NG Maroudas on January 30, 2020 · at 8:24 am EST/EDT
  
  In the Gulf War I used to go out of the shelters to watch “Active Patriots” take off from our local Israeli military base in Haifa. They went off with a lovely loud sonic bang which shattered local windows but they were 98% useless as missile defense. Iron Dome likewise, even against slow moving, home made copies of WW2 bazookas lobbed across the wall from Gaza.
  
  Methinks Uncle $cam has chosen the wiser option: not to alarm the good U$ $heeple by discussing the abysmal bang-for-buck performance of Raytheon’s money making Patriot$; it would only disturb the Silence of the Lambs.
- Dr NG Maroudas on January 30, 2020 · at 11:47 am EST/EDT
  
  @ActivePatriot: “US troops are battle hardened after close to 20 years.”
  
  Don’t think so; not after twenty years of only ganging up in NATZO’s Coalition of the Killing to attack much smaller and far less well armed countries. In contrast, consider the Syrian Arab Army, or Hezb, or the Houthi; taking on heavier oppinents and giving them a bloody nose; that’s real battle hardened.
- Roy on January 30, 2020 · at 1:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  In my humble opinion, it isn’t all that obvious that the Patriots are useless. But then again, I’m in no way a military expert.
  
  I see two other possibilities:
  
  A – They didn’t have any Patriot missiles in Iraq at the time
  B – They had Patriots in Iraqu, and used them, but some or all Iranian missiles came through anyway (we don’t know how many missiles Iran fired in the first place)
  
  A would look like a grave blunder, which would explain why nobody is talking about this.
  B seems less likely. If they did indeed use some Patriots, I’d expect them to proudly show how many missiles they intercepted.
  
  Any thoughts?
  - Govern the Mente on February 02, 2020 · at 12:02 am EST/EDT
    
    They didn’t have any decent air defense systems in Iraq because there wasn’t any threat that would require such defenses. They were equipped for counter insurgency combat like the former Iraqi resistance and later ISIS.
    Now they want to bring in some Patriot batteries but Iraq refuses to give permission to station them in Iraq. Iraq wants the foreign troops out, not to bring more.
    
    And the efficacy of these systems against ballistic missiles is questionable at best.
_smr on January 30, 2020 · at 3:19 am EST/EDT

“geschrei: the Yiddish word for yelling, crying out, to shriek”

Geschrei: German. Used by Saker in the sense of ‘making a lot of noise for theatrical effect’
- Elten on January 30, 2020 · at 4:54 am EST/EDT
  
  Modern Dutch: ‘ schreeuwen’ and ‘geschreeuw’ is yelling… I look at ‘schreeuwen, schreien, skrikke’ as Germanic root words, presumably loaned by Yiddish speaking Azkenazi’s (fake jews) from their hosts. We also have a more archaic expression: ‘schreien’ – ‘geschrei’. This would typically refer to ‘crying ou loud, lamenting – sobbing’ (by a woman in distress or by an abandoned child on a road side). Compare also to Edvard Munch’s famous painting ‘Skrik’ (the screaming of the man on the bridge in utter despair). https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=skriken+munch.
  
  Meanwhile I am impatiently waiting for the collapse of the Zio state, that will be my day.
  - Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 2:39 pm EST/EDT
    
    “presumably loaned by Yiddish speaking Azkenazi’s ”
    
    Do you mean “presumably borrowed by Yiddish-speaking Ashkenazis”?
- Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 1:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yiddish is, after all, a German dialect.
Wendy on January 30, 2020 · at 4:00 am EST/EDT

https://www.globalresearch.ca/cia-chief-behind-soleimani-assassination-killed-downed-plane-afghanistan/5702161

Soleimani avenged in Afghanistan by an Iranian missile.
- Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 6:25 am EST/EDT
  
  Lots of rumors and unconfirmed reporting that Ayatollah Mike was among the ones in the E-11a downing. Especially considered when this rumor was spread by someone who himself admitted to purposely propagates 40% of what he writes as false information “in order to not be killed”.
  Grain of salt and junk.
  - Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 1:05 pm EST/EDT
    
    Killing that person, while obviously desirable and fair, doesn’t go even a fraction of the way to balancing General Soleimani’s death. After all, he was nothing more than a nasty little hired killer who did his work in what he assumed was safety. (Evidently not so safe).
    
    I seem to remember Sayyed Nasrallah saying something about how the whole of Washington would not balance General Soleimani’s shoes.
MC on January 30, 2020 · at 5:09 am EST/EDT

Saker, you said:

“These grinning ignoramuses are doing more than anyone else to bring down the Empire, even if they don’t understand this!”

Well, let them finish the job, then. They are not very far from accomplishing it, are they?
S-400 on January 30, 2020 · at 5:30 am EST/EDT

The EU Slides into Irrelevance

I dont know if most persons have noticed, but a geo-political fact that has become apparent is that; the European Union (EU) has become the “Arab League” of the international community, i.e. it is completely irrelevant.

The way they idly stood by and allowed Trump to rip up the UNSC-backed JCPOA, served to confirm their irrelevance.

The countries of the EU, have squandered their previous importance, credibility, and political leverage by their abject servility in accomodating the agendas of both Israel and the US, and in the process, they are now, for all intents and purposes, just an over-hyped talking shop, that no one takes seriously anymore.

I mean seriously, who really listen to them and their pronouncements anymore?

They are just a bunch of pathetic lackeys and useless cowards competing among themselves to see who can be the best lap dog for the US and Israel.

Speaking of lap dogs, I heard that the Arab League has called an “extra-ordinary” meeting, to discuss the the recently unveiled “Insult of the Century” that Trump and his donors have cobbled together to preside over the liqudation of Palestine – I dont know about you guys, but I wont be holding my breath.

Selah
- tom on January 30, 2020 · at 9:44 pm EST/EDT
  
  They pull that BS publicity stunt often, to try to prove they even exist, since they are invisible & owned compromised pissants & completely useless, much like nearly every other ‘leader’ or group nowadays.
  
  This from 2017, note who’s the claimed villain.
  
  The Arab League will hold an extraordinary meeting on November 18 2017 at the request of Shoddy Wahabbia* to discuss “violations” committed by Iran in the region, with Saudi Arabia rumored to mobilize fighter jets.
  
  *name changed to anonymize the guilty party.
Rancid on January 30, 2020 · at 5:35 am EST/EDT

Whether Satan is a horned God of Evil stomping around in Hell, or the personification of the evil we see in ourselves is probably neither here nor there, as evil is real enough. One thing I find unusual and encouraging about this blog is the Christians and Muslims, instead of hating at each other, are joined in a common purpose against a commonly perceived evil. Perhaps there is hope for us…
- freedom on January 30, 2020 · at 8:45 am EST/EDT
  
  read this book by a great Islamic eschatology scholar and you shall see the whole picture clearly
  http://imranhosein.org/n/jerusalem-in-the-quran/
- Tom Welsh on January 30, 2020 · at 1:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  “If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being”.
  
  -Alexandr Solzhenitsyn (“The Gulag Archipelago”)
  
  If that is true, then the line of evil must stick around for quite a while while passing through some hearts. And draw some interesting castles in the air.
Little Black Duck on January 30, 2020 · at 6:00 am EST/EDT

Optimism and humour, logic and schadenfreude.
Well written Saker.
The Wise Owl on January 30, 2020 · at 6:05 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker, as always I read your newest column first. (You were the only one who spotted Shugoi to make the sign of the cross when he issued the Kremlin to join the 70 year victory parade on Red Square…. and thus lighted up my lamp.)
Could you shine your “light” on the the Bombardier spy aircraft that was taken down in Afghanistan, possibly with Mike D’Andrea on board, who organised the death of Quassem Suleimani?

Keep up the good work!
Rutger on January 30, 2020 · at 6:15 am EST/EDT

Geschrei is a german Word for yelling.
? on January 30, 2020 · at 6:16 am EST/EDT

Pristine and clean analysis as usual. Thanks Saker!

Just some unfounded imagination here…
I think there may be a chance the withdrawal (may be not full but certainly enough for the MSM to scream ‘traitor-in-chief’) by end of 2020. Do take note there are many other bases in Asia too and they have not been going well for decades. ME withdrawal can unseat EVERYTHING USSA MIC illegally or unfairly occupied while demanding ‘protection fee’ and ‘sale of the ultimate missile-defence toys’). That’s another reason why China has beef in assisting ME to be set free (China almost never do things direct as you already know).

That’s means, on the ground level, we should expect more fancy stun from the circus – maybe like the batshitcrazy flu we have currently? We should be utmost aware and alert to their mass ‘collateral damage’ ops, whatever that be. Everything is interlinked, thus the domino, if one falls, all falls down.
We should prepared (if one has not already) the effects before, during and after the fall. Assume worst case scenario if nobody is coming to save you – What will you do? What resource and skills do you have to survive? At least run a mental scenario, and then go out and smell the roses. There is no amount of preparation is ever enough. So remember to keep the peace. And read widely here on various topic-experts and their views. They can provide you with insights and more updated ‘news’.

The east has already suffered for decades and have plenty of experience. We want it to stop too.

P/s the chinese state news channel is reporting today and showing a news clip bb is formally being sued… end of friendship after the ‘peace plan’?
Joshua on January 30, 2020 · at 6:44 am EST/EDT

Good article, Saker.
The Americans have been greatly underreporting their casualties afield for a long time, since at least the 2003 invasion for sure (and that’s just during my generation). By ignoring pmc and cia casualties completely, failing to report active duty casualties at all (or misclassifying them as accidents, training exercise incidents, etc.), flat out denying the existance of active duty casualties incurred by personnel imbedded with mercenary military formations, etc. Not to mention the secondary, collateral damages like suicides and severe drug addictions (often resulting in death), which result from traumas that active duty soldiers have absorbed. If I had to guess, I would guess that only 1/3 to 1/2 of actual casualties are admitted to.
The clowns that are trying to put a silk shirt on that particular pig are not worth one of the boot laces of any of their victims.
Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 7:10 am EST/EDT

“pre-traumatic stress disorder” — indeed, a very good term.

A good analysis of hard war scenarios.

However, US strength is more in its global economic clout coming out of the Treasury and Fed.
While the usd$ holds its reserve currency status then the oxygen can/will be turned off on recalcitrant Iran/North Korea/Cuba/Venezuela etc. The EU/UK (read NATO) are nothing but poodles with economic compliance policy complemented with military options (e.g. Libya, Syria, Afghanistan) to make the official narrative reflect a “global community” theme.

China and Russia have potential clout, but past a SCO Agreement what can they do but play the long game?

I think Iran’s weakness is its isolation risk in the global economy. No indigenous airline industry; no air force effect options against US/Nato/Israeli; likely little domestic oil/gas refining/transport infrastructure, power grid or cultural sites (beyond rubble) after a major US strike.

Iran might be hard to invade, but why would the US want to invade? Just sit back and watch them roll their donkey and cart economy towards Cuba.

Ok, over dramatic, but the general ‘shock-&-awe’ 2.0 outcome does not need to destroy Iran — just keep it 10-20 years behind the ME pack while Israel builds its long-term land base and military/market options and the elite Arab poodles keep licking their master’s toes in the nightclubs of Europe and USA.

If it was not against Islamic principles then we might look forward to Persian versions of the Buena Vista Social Club touring for foreign currency.

No, I think it is becoming obvious that, Divine intervention aside, Iran has two basic 21st century options:

(1) stand up and develop effective nuclear options as deterrent along side Pakistan to the East and Israel (allegedly) to the West; or

(2) STFU and sit down to dinner with the other poodles (EU and ME) feeding from the master’s (not so invisible) hand.

And the later would probably suit China and Russia as well. The future for the non-hegemonic states is business, not war.
- Cosimo on January 30, 2020 · at 10:49 am EST/EDT
  
  Assume for a moment that a devastating nuclear attack on Iran would indeed destroy that lovely nation. The US would still have destroyed its own future.
  
  1. An obvious consequence is that the “soft power” of the US (and Israel) would be entirely destroyed.
  People sometimes don’t realize that soft power is more important than hard power. For instance, those fearsome “US” Treasury Department sanctions are based on soft power. The US could rush to increase its hard power to make up for the loss of soft power, but there is an important distinction here: Soft power is profitable and hard power is just a draining expense. So the demise of the Empire would be accelerated. There would be a new Godwin’s Law, and the US could not arise like a phoenix from the ashes it would have made.
  
  2. A nuclear attack means fallout, and the entire world is downwind on a long enough time scale. Afghanistan, Pakistan, then India, then China, then the ROW. Billions of people will be looking for revenge and sold-out politicians would be powerless to stop that anger from realizing a serious impact.
  
  3. An almost depressing thing is that assymmetries in warfare increase as technology advances. In a few decades, some teenager might be able to assemble a devastating biological weapon from easily available supplies and decide to try it out on the world’s then-#1 bad guy. The fatwa’s against WMD’s and bio-weapons are irrelevant because said teenager might not be a Muslim. It could be anyone with the skills, from anywhere.
  - Arch on January 31, 2020 · at 11:09 am EST/EDT
    
    One interesting question: Assume for a moment tyat the US or Israel decided to launch a devastating nuclear attack on Iran. Would that nuclear attack be detected by Russia and China and would they be absolutely sure that the attack is not in fact targeted at them?
    
    If Russia misreads such an attack (it would need to be a large attack) as a “decapitating strike” intended for itself, then it might trigger a nuclear launch against the US at the same time …
    - Cosimo on January 31, 2020 · at 4:52 pm EST/EDT
      
      I think Russia’s defense systems are very robust and would not misinterpret an attack on Iran as an attack on targets 500 miles or more further north.
      
      If I were to expand on the original points, it’s worth mentioning that the US, indeed even the full Empire, is not able to fight on more than one front at the same time. So any fighting that fully engaged the US military would be a good opportunity for any other nation to fight, especially if the US-Iran fight appeared to last very long, or if Iran appeared to be winning. I’m sure the Pentagon considers this as one more reason to not attack Iran. I mean really, how long is the list of nations that have a serious grudge against the good ole USA ???
- ababush on January 30, 2020 · at 3:23 pm EST/EDT
  
  “likely little domestic oil/gas refining/transport infrastructure, power grid or cultural sites (beyond rubble) after a major US strike.”
  I think you underestimate Iran’s deterrence. Should the US perform a major strike on Iran, no oil will get out of the Persian Gulf. And the global economy will sink, as well as the dollar.
  And if the US doesn’t perform a major strike on Iran, then they will quietly get expelled from Irak-Syria.
dave on January 30, 2020 · at 7:51 am EST/EDT

@Saker When are you going to pay attention to the nCov virus outbreak in China, it seems to be a bio weapon aimed at Asian male genes according to following research (they do not mention bio weapon only Asian male genes):
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1
- dave on January 30, 2020 · at 7:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Saker “Decipher: 11.06.2019 The U.S. sent an aircraft of biological weapons to China. Epidemics may begin in China soon.
  They should not forget that if there is a Turk on earth, there is hope.” source: https://twitter.com/EmirYildizdan/status/1138545686100815873
anodinous on January 30, 2020 · at 8:24 am EST/EDT

I read that USA, instead of leaving iraq, wants to create 3 new bases.
Given the latest demonstration of iran’s missile technologie, shouldn’t they just keep the missiles raining on the building sites, instead of allowing 3 new bases to appear?
Any insights on this?
Linda on January 30, 2020 · at 8:31 am EST/EDT

Thank you . Saying thank you is not an original contribution .
Reading your article gives me hope that all this crazyness will one day ceased and hopefully people will be allowed to simply live no matter where .
Clarence on January 30, 2020 · at 8:40 am EST/EDT

According to the avia.pro website “the United States demanded that Israel begin to crush Russia in the Middle East”.
Again according to the same website we can find an article saying this: “In the event of a war between the United States and Russia, the latter will be defeated in the first three hours”, Chinese analysts say.
I would like to know what The Saker thinks of these news and how reliable the website avia.pro is according to him.
Thank you !
- Govern the Mente on February 02, 2020 · at 12:37 am EST/EDT
  
  Based on the two statement you quote I suspect them to be totally unreliable. Fake news.
  A war between the USA and Russia that only lasts 3 hours won’t have any winners.
  And the US setting Israel up against Russia doesn’t make sense either.
Arthur G Brina on January 30, 2020 · at 9:09 am EST/EDT

Although I am sympathetic to Saker’s analysis, I expect the Anglo-Zionist empire to prosper and to persevere. It will grow ever more powerful, despite setbacks in the Middle East. The countries, now opposed to its objectives, will eventually be drained of the human and natural resources necessary to carry on the resistance.

As long as the Zionist elite can rely on the millions of their Zionist retainers (ideological Jews, evangelical Christians, globalists, and pragmatic opportunists abound among us) to do their bidding and to make the blood sacrifices for them, and as long as this elite can pursue their aims at global domination and obscene enrichment by using other people’s money, they cannot lose. As long as the losses and sacrifices do not effect them, the setbacks experienced here and there have no cost to them.

Proclaim all you want that the peoples of the Muslim countries are not “afraid” of the Empire anymore. The Empire can eventually wear everyone of them down into a state of despair: devoid of food and water, fuel and shelter, hope and faith. Don’t think so? Then think of the Palestinians for a moment; and you will know that they can and that they will.

I am 72 years old. I have accepted that I will not see a turning of the tide in the rest of my lifetime.
- SteveK9 on January 30, 2020 · at 9:58 am EST/EDT
  
  There is one country that can stand alone against the entire World and that country is Russia. Russia doesn’t need anything from anyone and it cannot be conquered (at least not from without). If Russia and China truly do not want to be part of a global US empire, they could set up a rival empire.
  
  Whether they really want to do this is definitely a question. It appears that they would prefer a ‘system’, where the global empire remains intact, but they have some autonomy in it. Russia wanted to do that in the 90’s but found out that the empire just wanted to loot their country. China also wanted to be a part of the empire … why else are they sending hundreds of billion of dollars of real goods to the US every year?
  
  I still think it would take even more outrageous behavior on the part of the empire, before they would set course for a complete break.
- One Tribe on February 03, 2020 · at 1:31 am EST/EDT
  
  Arthur, thank you for your thoughtful comment.
  I disagree with you on several points, which perhaps you might consider.
  
  1. “…the Anglo-Zionist empire to prosper and to persevere. It will grow ever more powerful, …” I think the A-Z faction has ‘jumped the shark’; for one thing, there is getting to be steadily scarcer things to steal, and when this avenue to power is gone, members of this sick-with-hatred collective, unable to do anything else, will cannibalize their own fodder first, then co-factionalists subsequently. I could name names, but I believe that if you think about it, you will agree that this is already going on.
  
  2. “As long as … elite can rely on the millions of their … retainers… …to do their bidding and… pursue their aims at global domination and obscene enrichment by using other people’s money, they cannot lose.
  … well, first of all, outlandishly deterministic, obviously (perhaps an exaggeration to make the point).
  Yes, it is true that an entire army of servants exists and does the bidding of their masters, both those thinking themselves included as part of the ‘in-group‘, i.e. some kind of ‘baked-in‘ exceptionality to not be at all concerned with ‘the golden rule‘, or those having accepted, or learned how to robustly self-deny, their status as ‘second-at-best‘.
  But what are these ‘people’?
  They are the very lowest form of human life (and that is saying a lot!)
  They have low real loyalty, and little if no courage, whatsoever, they are the toadies that hang with the bullies. Overt displays of bullying against a victim give this type their realization vicariously, in association of their bully masters.
  It only works as long as fear is on.
  When the fear is weakened, they will themselves go, because, ultimately, it is the fear that keeps they themselves enthralled!
  
  This is why it is true, it is extremely relevant that a (previously) victimized society/societies stop fearing.
  The bully seeks to influence by threat, typically (but not always), they are not very good at actually fighting, they are mostly only good at bullshitting.
  When people get out of the market for ‘bullshit‘, something that tends to happen when you have all sorts of degrading, dirty-rotten things done to them, like economic warfare (so common these days); you just can’t afford it anymore(!), the influencing and putting the fear on them, just doesn’t work anymore, they’d rather die fighting!
  The citizens of the empire who have not been subsumed in cognition and independent moral judgement are rapidly approaching the same tough decision, “give up completely, or fight!”
  
  I think a lot more of them that most people estimate are going to be deciding to fight.
  
  The very fact that we can come and share our free independent thought on these matters is an indication of the process.
  
  Thank you again, and also to our courageous host, здоровье
  - Arthur G Brina on February 03, 2020 · at 6:32 pm EST/EDT
    
    Points well-made . . . and well-taken.
    Thank you.
SteveK9 on January 30, 2020 · at 9:49 am EST/EDT

The article states that there will be strong ‘retaliation’ by Iran if Israel or the US use nuclear weapons. A small nuclear warhead might have a yield of 150 kT. That is the equivalent of 150,000 tons of TNT, or 300,000,000 kg of TNT. A single warhead could destroy Tehran completely. You cannot ‘fight back’ against nuclear weapons, you can only deter their use by having nuclear weapons of your own. Iran religious leadership states that it is immoral to develop nuclear weapons. If they stick to that, it could mean the end of Iran.

I have no idea what would follow an Israeli nuclear attack against Iran. But, if recent history is a judge, the World would probably simply tolerate it.
- JJ on January 30, 2020 · at 10:55 am EST/EDT
  
  USA just announced trialing out their new mini nukes on submarines….sputniknews.
- Arch on January 31, 2020 · at 11:16 am EST/EDT
  
  “Iran religious leadership states that it is immoral to develop nuclear weapons. If they stick to that, it could mean the end of Iran.”
  
  Of course, this applies to the religious leadership and those zealots who execute their pronouncements dogmatically.
  
  However, Iran is not a monolith.
  
  It’s very likely that the task of being “amoral” has been delegated to some division of the state in order to ensure the survival of Iran. I mean, the covert development of a nucleat deterrent in contravention of the Supreme Leader’s fatwah.
Anon on January 30, 2020 · at 10:17 am EST/EDT

Great Ignoramus picture! Four more years of these clowns and the empire will come down even sooner.
peter mcloughlin on January 30, 2020 · at 10:46 am EST/EDT

All empires come to pass: yet one follows another.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Susan on January 30, 2020 · at 11:13 am EST/EDT

Thanks for this Saker!
I am wondering if you will have a write up on the cia plane that was shot down in Afghanistan . I have read several articles but I usually feel more comfortable if either you or Moon over Alabama post your thoughts.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/52911.htm
X- on January 30, 2020 · at 11:42 am EST/EDT

Hello Saker.

I came across an extremely interesting analysis, *The REAL Target of Iran’s Missiles Revealed (Hint: It Was a Direct Hit)* by an individual named Byron King(Harvard-trained geologist and former aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations) who appears to be , well-informed.
I’d be really appreciative to get some feedback from You & other ‘knowledgeable readers here.

Byron King is, imo very close-to-the-mark:

“When I looked at the satellite imagery of targets Iran just hit with missiles, my blood ran cold.
Fortunately, Iran didn’t kill or injure anyone with its recent strikes in Iraq. But the missiles did hit their “aim points.” In fact, they landed exactly where intended!
And those missiles carried a message. The long-term U.S. Middle East strategy is obsolete!
We definitely aren’t getting the whole Iran-story from our politicians, our generals or the media. I suppose they don’t want to scare you…
But I’ll show you photos below, and tell you what’s happening.
Read on…”.

https://stpaulresearch.com/2020/01/11/the-real-target-of-irans-missiles-revealed-hint-it-was-a-direct-hit/
https://stpaulresearch.com/author/byronking/

Thanks Saker.
Quite accurate analysis.
Byron King’s *take* is kind’a like ‘icing on the cake’ concerning, cause-effect-consequence.
Regards X-
Only the Truth. Veritas X-
STEVEN BERESFORD on January 30, 2020 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT

Hi Saker: Don’t forget that the Taliban (almost certainly helped by Iran) just shot down an American aircraft with 34 leading CIA agents on board, allegedly including the regional leader who was responsible for assassinating Soleimani. As the story goes, the Americans then sent in a rescue helicopter with 11 special forces on board, which was also shot down.
- Anonymous on January 30, 2020 · at 2:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yeah, it seems that Trump and Pompeo got their Mogadishu BlackHawk moment elevated to the tenth potence…
  
  Yet, as this adminstration is about lying all the way, you do not see anybody resigning…
44360 on January 30, 2020 · at 12:19 pm EST/EDT

Credit where credit is due, Mr Trump (et al) made the right decision on the morning after the Iranian missile attack. Although, he looked rather subdued when he announced it.
—
Complementing Mr Saker’s analysis of the asymmetry of the situation: The West’s assets in the region are predominately soft targets with respect to missile attack, while Iran’s missile capabilities seem to be somewhat protected. So now there is a stalemate of sorts.
—
Historically, empires have been fundamentally economic in nature. The military has been a tool used in service to the larger scheme. In that respect, viewing military decisions as binary or military affairs as win-lose in nature obscures the situation. Some insight is gained from considering the more general objective.

Why is the West involved in the region? What results would serve the West’s purposes? Has decisively winning a particular military campaign been important? What would generally confound the West? How can and will the West adapt to a changing military situation? Or a changing economic situation?
- Govern the Mente on February 02, 2020 · at 12:49 am EST/EDT
  
  One of the main reasons the US needed to subjugate the middle eastern countries to their rule is/was to prevent them from selling oil in other currency then US dollar. The value of the dollar is based on that.
  Iraq and Libya planned on selling oil for other currencies. Iran also doesn’t comply, and I would imagine Venezuela also wouldn’t mind selling oil for Yuan, although they sold most of their oil to US refineries undoubtedly in US dollars.
JF on January 30, 2020 · at 12:40 pm EST/EDT

Little error at first paragraph: in Iraq, not Syria.

Turns out that Trump and the Pentagon were lying. Again. This time about the true impact of the Iranian counter-strike on US forces in Syria.
- amarynth on January 30, 2020 · at 1:04 pm EST/EDT
  
  This is fixed. Apologies. :-)
S75ponny on January 30, 2020 · at 12:40 pm EST/EDT

Thanks for excellent article.
This article and many following comments provoke a question of once MIC is denied “markets” in middle East which country(s) would be next for theatre of war?

PS: iran has some 50,000 of these missiles summing up massive amount energy possibly annulating Iran’s atomic neighbor potential.
Anon on January 30, 2020 · at 1:14 pm EST/EDT

haimsaban/sheldonadelson’s Manchurian has done it again, now its West Bank annexation (after East Jerusalem,Golan,cutoff of funds,embassy).. But the Arabs are dumb, nobody could clearly state that after a 35% settlement annexation,30% Jordan Valley annexation the Palestinians are being offered 20% “bantustans” with a promise of “doubling” (as the BBC spin was leading the dumbos to beleive) to 35% by adding interconnecting roads (if they “behave”).
AriusArmenian on January 30, 2020 · at 1:49 pm EST/EDT

The US lurches from one disaster to another with seemingly no self-consciousness of the suffering, death, and destruction in its wake.

The US wraps itself in its supremacist ‘indispensable and exceptional’ narratives like another people that through they were ‘uber alles’.

The US has reached its greatest extent and is using every resource it can muster to keep the Empire party going. But like the Roman Empire in its late stages it is expending more energy to maintain the Empire than it can plow and plunder from its own people or from its colonies.

I am sure, positive, that I will live to see the definite end or contraction of the US Empire and its failure to defeat or subdue the coalescing multifarious East.
Paul holland on January 30, 2020 · at 1:53 pm EST/EDT

IMO its possible that Iran intentionally shot down the Ukr plane itself. Canadians are as close as they were going to get to Americans. 60+ Canadians died. It could have been a ploy to shock the US and west into realizing that escalating has consequences. And it worked. Trudaue basically did end up blaming Trump.

Either that or IRGC 5th column

The radar data shows that it was not an accident. It just wasnt
- Col...'the farmer from NZ' on January 30, 2020 · at 5:37 pm EST/EDT
  
  Saker
  
  Your thinking is very similar to mine.
  
  This bunch of reckless irresponsible lunatics is doing far more to hasten the demise of the Hegemon than all of their contrived enemies combined.
  
  There is no longer any shroud, shame or diplomacy of any sort. They have weaponized anything and everything they can lay their hands on and taken their multi fronted global warfare and terrorism to a level that is completely abhorrent and absurd. Without a very bad case of cognitive dissonance the sheer scale of this evil agenda renders it absolutely impossible for anyone of us to miss.
  
  The strategy of Russia and China in keeping out of the way as much as is humanly possible is both wise and effective. This bunch of dangerous morons, grinning like Cheshire cats in the photo, don’t have the faintest clue that they are their own worst enemies as well as that the Hegemon. Whilst they vastly hasten the fall of the very entity they attempt to support they are blissfully unaware of the consequences of their actions.
  
  They have no grand nor cunning plan…this is just a simple case of outrageously irresponsible ‘diplomatic’ bludgeoning and incompetence. The consequences, both direct and unintended, would be laughable if it didn’t involve this constant bloodshed and misery.
  
  YCHMTSU
  Col
Nussiminen on January 30, 2020 · at 3:24 pm EST/EDT

”Remember Michael Ledeen? He is the Neocon who came up with this historical aphorism: >> Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business. >> ”

Correct, and we also have Bill Kristol’s equally sophisticated pronunciamento What’s the good of nuclear weapons if you can’t use them? Really, one thing I’ll have to say for the neoconservatives is that they are spectacularly combustible folks, seething with contempt, hatred, and disgust of anybody bar Israel, and being 100% honest about it. They teach us very valuable lessons on the ”indispensability” of the US for the survival of the planet.
- jiri on January 30, 2020 · at 10:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  “What’s the good of nuclear weapons if you can’t use them?”
  
  The practical aspect of this principle is the so called tactical nuclear weapon.
  
  These are under 1000 ton capacity and weight around 400 kgs.
  
  I expect these will be used in fair numbers on the coming war with Iran.
ken on January 30, 2020 · at 4:06 pm EST/EDT

Soon, all the kings of the earth will unite and align against Jesus Christ in the final showdown
Revelation 19:19-21
19 “Then I saw the beast and the kings and political leaders of the earth with their armies gathered to make war against Him who is mounted on the [white] horse and against His army. 20 And the beast (Antichrist) was seized and overpowered, and with him the false prophet who, in his presence, had performed [amazing] signs by which he deceived those who had received the mark of the beast and those who worshiped his image; these two were hurled alive into the lake of fire which blazes with brimstone. 21 And the rest were killed with the sword which came from the mouth of Him who sat on the horse, and all the birds fed ravenously and gorged themselves with their flesh.”
William H Warrick III MD on January 30, 2020 · at 4:25 pm EST/EDT

And now they offed ‘Taliban Mike’ and the Empire hasn’t said a word that I know of meaning they have no idea of what to do. the question is, “How did they do it?” From what I have seen the plane was in one piece when it hit the ground and the pilots were burned to a crisp. Did Iran hack the plane and just crash it? The End is Near.
John Neal Spangler on January 30, 2020 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT

Very good analysis. Particularly about US military in Syria. The pentagon does not want to admit defeat and is in denial, and the Israel lobby does not care as long as Syrians die and Syrian infrastructure destroyed.US strategy that does not have any US interest is bound to fail.
H Georg Brüning on January 30, 2020 · at 5:02 pm EST/EDT

‘Geschrei’ is taken from the german vocabulary, but I think people know that.
HGB
Osori on January 30, 2020 · at 7:58 pm EST/EDT

“Empires can survive many things, but once they are not feared anymore, then their end is near”
if i may make a boxing analogy – this brings to mind the young George Foreman, destroyer of Joe Frazier and Ken Norton, thought by sportswriters and many boxing fans to be invincible. Once Ali knocked him out in Zaire Foreman’s shortcomings were exposed. He took punishment in every fight after that. following a loss to Jimmy Young the remainder of his fights became a figurative bum of the month club.
God’s will, may the Anglozionists bow out without dragging us all down with them
Kampfbeobachter on January 30, 2020 · at 10:35 pm EST/EDT

Und der Herr lies hoeren ein sehr grosses Geschrei…..
Zephania to the fall if Assur through the Hittites.

Yiddish is the German dialect of the German speaking Jews.

A complete different question:
Does Iran have rockets or cruise missiles that can reach Diego Garcia?
There are usually some juicy targets there.
vot tak on January 30, 2020 · at 11:46 pm EST/EDT

Following news about the Russian’s bases in Syria, I assumed the americans were also incorporating air defense in their Mideast deployments.

US Working With Baghdad to Deploy Patriots in Iraq After Iran Missile Strike – Pentagon

https://sputniknews.com/world/202001301078181951-us-working-with-baghdad-to-deploy-patriots-in-iraq-after-iran-missile-strike-pentagon/

“The US is working on delivering Patriot missile systems to Iraq in the wake of Iran’s ballistic missile attack, but needs “permission” from the Iraqi government to do so, Secretary of Defence Mark Esper said Thursday.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley confirmed that the US was “working with the Iraqi government” on the issue, but said that “the mechanics of it all” still need to be worked out.

That process is “ongoing,” Milley said.

On the morning of January 8, Iran launched several dozen missile at US military bases in Iraq, hitting the Erbil Airbase in the country’s north, and the Ayn al-Asad Airbase west of Baghdad. Iran is reported to have provided advance warning to Iraq, who presumably warned the US forces stationed in the country, allowing them to take shelter in prepared bunkers. Although they did not kill any US troops, the missile strikes did cause substantial damage to base infrastructure.

The US military later said that no air defences were deployed at either of the bases.

That answers the question about why there were no reports about american air defenses shooting down any incoming, or even being active. They were not even there.

Says a lot about american military planning and the assumptions they base it on.

Pathethic.
- Stand Easy on January 31, 2020 · at 3:26 am EST/EDT
  
  VT,
  
  Found this report at South Front about Danish soldiers’ experience of the attack:
  
  ‘On January 8th, Danish sergeant John and the other Danish soldiers waited for several hours for the Iranian attack on the Ain al-Asad military base in the Al Anbar province in western Iraq.’
  …
  ‘Several sources tell TV 2 that about six hours before Iran targeted the two military bases in Iraq with ballistic missiles, the Danish government and the Defense Force knew about the impending attack.’
  …
  ‘ “Suddenly, the first wave came, that’s what I call it. Nine rockets at barely a ton each. It cannot be described. I’ve never experienced anything like it, and I hope to never come to it again,” the sergeant said.’
  …
  ‘Psychologists are now on their way to Kuwait to help the Danish soldiers recover from the experience.’
  
  If you enjoy snarky comments, read SF’s comments at the end of the article.
  
  https://southfront.org/danish-troops-testify-to-greater-damages-at-us-base-in-iraq-as-well-as-to-natos-lack-of-readiness/
  - vot tak on January 31, 2020 · at 10:05 am EST/EDT
    
    Stand Easy
    
    Those danes are pretty sad. Agree with SF.
    
    The lack of air defense does show how incompetent these colonizers are. It shows that they never expected to be attacked by rocket or drone, like the Russian base in Syria is. Why would their own terror proxy army attack them?
    
    It’s “little things”, like this that give the israeloamerican game away… :-D
  - Nussiminen on January 31, 2020 · at 11:37 am EST/EDT
    
    Truly razor-sharp, witty comments, especially this one:
    
    ”Can you imagine these pampered Eurotrash faggots deploying to NW Syria and trying to liberate Aleppo & Idlib from die-hard jihadists?”
    
    Absolutely not (of course), and even more to the point: How would the Euro-trash fare trying to turn the tide against the Syrian Arab Army, President Assad, and the Syrian people? I mean: The Takfiris are outright, violent psychopaths and they are failing miserably. ”Reinforcements” in the form of pampered, zionazi-gay Euro-trash — the less said the better.
vot tak on January 31, 2020 · at 12:13 am EST/EDT

One of the favourite spamming tactics of israel’s websayanim is pedantry over some unimportant word meanings. For example here about “geschrei”. Who but a hostile troll would waste people’s with this nonsense?
- Nussiminen on January 31, 2020 · at 4:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ vt
  
  I also find these utter meaningless ”discussions” degrading to the blog, but I don’t think trolling has to be the underlying motivation (even though it could be). Silly distractions such as this ”issue” about the word geschrei are contagious, pure and simple. Casual readers suddenly discover that there is something superficial and shallow to opine on and there you go.
Slobodan Cekic on January 31, 2020 · at 1:33 am EST/EDT

“Remember Michael Ledeen? He is the Neocon who came up with this historical aphorism: “Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business“.”

Oh, dear Saker, thank you for this most illuminating quote. This is how the western elites look nowadays.The bottom of the human gutter, whose eventual and not necessarily required formal education makes the consequences of the lack of soul still worse. If they need to walk over corpses to get to the top, they do it. Emapthy, love? What would be that?
Just read an excellent article here, by Naresh Jotwani: ‘Globalization- a sneaky overview’. This quote is the only thing missing there, to illustrate the societal ‘B-s’ there he is telling us about in his excellent analysis.
Richard Moore on January 31, 2020 · at 6:25 am EST/EDT

I continue to be amazed that even the best-informed and intelligent commentators (with The Saker in the forefront) fail to talk about the globalists and their global-government project. It is obvious that the USA must be brought down before that project can proceed. Uni-polarism must be replaced by multi-polarism, and other steps must follow that. Putin has already given speeches about a new order in world affairs. The globalists have been running the USA since 1913, and the bringdown of the US Empire is intentional not accidental. As The Saker says, “These grinning ignoramuses are doing more than anyone else to bring down the Empire, even if they don’t understand this!” They may not understand, but their bosses do.
francis m reps on January 31, 2020 · at 10:40 am EST/EDT

Throughout History ; Jews had eventually been subjected to “Pogroms” because populace in those Nation’s that Jews happened to live in ; became aware of Jewish bad behavior which was based on the innate and obvious projection of a Jewish sense of superiority who considered themselves as a ” People ” who were a “Cut Above” those who were NOT Members of their Tribe. The Temporal aspect of their Religion also fostered an ‘Anything goes ” conduct on their part. In America’s hort History ; The ignorant and insouciant populace of the USA has also been propagandized into thinking that they too ; are ”
Exceptional ” { like the Jews } and by their very Nature ; entitled to bad behavior.
Taras 77 on January 31, 2020 · at 3:23 pm EST/EDT

This guy foreign agent kushner really is a piece of work; negotiating his obscene “peace plan” by insulting one of the parties, the palestinians.

https://mondoweiss.net/2020/01/jared-kushner-taunts-palestinians-because-he-wants-them-to-reject-his-peace-plan/

He even previously confused his mentor, nitenyaahoo, by telling the israelis not to annex until after the election in order to have an insraeli govt to confirm the “tech details” of the annexation.

Just when one believes it cannt get any worse, it indeed gets worse with this zionist bubble head.
John4Truth on January 31, 2020 · at 3:46 pm EST/EDT

While USA and Israel launch their pathetic “peace plan”, it is causing massive protests all over the Middle East and around of the world as well.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/palestinian-protesters-burn-us-israeli-flags-in-response-to-trumps-deal-of-the-century-video/

The peace plan by Kushner was always a provocation from the start, the Trump administration has no intention of peace. Their plan was recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s territory and capital, and recognition of Golan as Israel territory, both illegal intent. So their plan is occupation of Palestine and while attacking Syria by occupataional proxy forces , they laid plans for the permanent integration of Golan into Israel which is more violations of the UNSC resolutions regarding the recognizition of Israel by occupational armies inside Syria to prevent Syria from reclaiming its territory.

While the creation of the state of Israel in itself is also a long history of conspiracies by use of the british empire and its hold over the Middle East since WW1 and the creation of the mandates (Paris Peace Conference, creation of the League of Nations).

The historic recognition of Israel in the first place happened within recognized borders (1948), and the borders were to be adhered to so as to create the state of Israel, while the condition was the creation of the state of Palestine. The conditions were not met, and Israel violated its borders.
So the legal basis of Israel is very thin today, since they have not complied with the conditions in fact having the criminal intent to occupy Palestine as directed by the british empire who controlled their proxy arab states . It is a clear situtation today for a UN peacekeeping force according to the UN charter in order to preserve peace.

What also the “peace plan” sought to hide is the recent ICC (international criminal court) investigation of Israel
s war crimes in the occupied palestinian territories, that which is the Un recognized palestinian state (1948).

All this and thereby the status of the sovereign state of Israel is thus unresolved sinced its creation hinged on the creation of the sovereign state of Palestine and there were criminal intent involved in its making.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/icc-has-no-jurisdiction-to-investigate-war-crimes-in-occupied-palestinian-territories-netanyahu/

Now it has become clear that palestinians may be the israelites or the remaining isrealites in Palestine, and that the jews are not israelite at all.

As unjust as this seems, international politics are still dominated by the empire and justice is therefore prevented from happening in the near future.
g on January 31, 2020 · at 5:51 pm EST/EDT

so 34 or 50 people had traumatic brain injury.by the way no one died? 50 minus 34 equals 16ish…… but whos counting?
nikov on January 31, 2020 · at 7:38 pm EST/EDT

In america they teach the kiddies the three “Rs’–reading, (w)riting and (a)rithmatic. They dare not teach the fourth “R” which would reasoning. If they did the kiddies would soon realize that the entire american story is one big pile of red, white, and blue horseshit. That’s the very same heap of manure that Joe Bageant was referring to when he wrote that americans are cultivated like mushrooms. From birth to death kept in the dark and fed horseshit.
Dr.NG Maroudas on February 01, 2020 · at 1:01 am EST/EDT

Latest update on the Allies’ brilliant endgame in Syria, with Russian, Iranian and Hezb forces coming together to corner NATZO. Analyst Canthama BTL SyrPer #308275:

“The chess board is set, pieces are moving to places, the US and the rest of NATO have 3 months to leave Iraq, then US/UK/France forces in Syria will be very dangerous position regarding supplies and exposed, they won’t risk to stay in Syria once they leave Iraq.

Lets wait few days or week for more info the above, things are moving really fast in Syria.”
Jorge on February 01, 2020 · at 4:28 am EST/EDT

I just have a point in here: The U.S. empire is not in the Middle East for winning wars, but to destabilize the region. That’s their own and ultimate goal, keep the ME down, Russia out, the U.S. in. Same like NATO’s ultimate policy. They don’t give a damn on gaining nothing, it is just destabilization per se
- Kapricorn4 on February 02, 2020 · at 8:18 am EST/EDT
  
  “The Pentagon has just deployed a new, smaller nuclear warhead aboard the ballistic missile submarine USS Tennessee as it sailed into the Atlantic last month in the midst of the spiraling crisis with Iran. The weapon, known as the W76-2 warhead, has an explosive yield of roughly five kilotons, a third of the destructive power of the “Little Boy” bomb that claimed the lives of some 140,000 people in Hiroshima in 1945.” RT
f reps on February 01, 2020 · at 10:44 am EST/EDT

Looking at the photograph of the four individuals in this article ; I am reminded of a slightly vulgar….but absolutely accurate observation ” If anuses were flowers ; these would be the centerpieces in a Bouquet “
Santiago on February 01, 2020 · at 3:07 pm EST/EDT

I cant actual work out what is US policy in the Middle East as it flips flops here, there and everywhere from week to week. Does Donald or Bibi flip a coin ?

I can imagine how confused the countries in the region are.
Bill Jackson on February 01, 2020 · at 6:00 pm EST/EDT

I particularly like your reference to the 4 Shmucks as “grinning ignoramuses”,,,if the shoe fits,,,
Jamil Raza on February 04, 2020 · at 2:00 am EST/EDT

An excellent article depicting the changed middle eastern ground realities and the US policy of doomed coercion.
Eric Zuesse on February 04, 2020 · at 7:30 pm EST/EDT

another brilliant geo-strategic analysis from The Saker. Thank you for the perspective, which brings everything together in a coherent way!
ovaltine on February 05, 2020 · at 6:41 pm EST/EDT

The photo: MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE.
Allister on February 20, 2020 · at 3:33 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker

I would like to offer an alternative scenario, pure speculation on my part of course but I think its important to consider a broader range of possibilities here.

I mentioned not long after this event I believe Trump had been ambushed by insiders within his own ranks, likely outmaneuvered by “neoconservative ideology” that has plagued the white house and intelligence services and has sought war with Iran for decades now, that part is not speculation.

I don’t think Trump himself personally planned or expected the assassination of Qasem Soleimani despite the fact he claimed credit for it after the fact.

It is possible the deep-state semi legitimately sanctioned the assassination under the auspices of the Iranian Republican Guard terrorist designation, a designation I should add was put through under POTUS Obama.

As I mentioned at the time this being case I imagine back channels were working pretty hard to overt WWIII, it is possible at this point the response by Iran and lack of retaliation by US was a negotiated affair, the propaganda by US state media crafted to avoid the necessity for a US military response.

It’s possible the on the ground deep-state operatives responsible for the assassination were thrown under the bus as an offering and a warning from Trump to those who defied him, in other words air defense systems were largely stood down. If this was the case we have learnt nothing as to the capabilities of US defense systems.

It might sound like I’m being a Trump apologist here, I’m not, my views on Trump are fairly accurately reflected in your own. I’m also not saying that Trump or the next POTUS won’t go to war against Iran in the future even the near future but I believe this event was just another example of factions waging war in the corridors of DC.