Today I will begin by quoting in full two posts from the blog of Colonel Cassad (we owe this translation to “SA” who has done it especially for this analysis literally overnight!):
About the intensity of the western “Voentorg”
Instructors from Canada have arrived to train Ukrainian security officers
The authorities of the Donetsk National Republic announce an increase in the number of foreign military instructors in the territory controlled by Ukraine.
– Today there are an immense number of instructors from different countries operating there. For example, 200 people came from Canada, and there are English and others. Now just counting those legally in the Ukrainian territory there are about 1,500 military instructors, who are not themselves fighting, but are instructing and training others. And this does not include illegal instructors, mercenaries, and special agents, – as Speaker of the National Council of the DNR Andrey Purgin described to the correspondent from RG. Judging by his words, foreign experts are conducting training in military science for members of sabotage groups and territorial battalions, who already “have their hands up to the elbow in blood”.
– Also there are mercenaries who are directly fighting on the side of the Ukrainian security officers. Generally they come from Georgia and join territorial battalions, which by the way is absolutely not permitted from the point of view of Ukrainian law. I do not know who is paying their salary. After all generally territorial battalions receive little, live on foraging, and engage in robberies, – says Andrey Purgin .
Let us remember that it was reported earlier that the Ukrainian side threw under Volnovakha 70 American mercenaries from the private US military company Academi.
“According to available data, on the territory controlled by the VSU, specifically in Volnovakha, the presence of 70 representatives of the private military company Academi was revealed. This company was named Blackwater previously”, – said the representative of the Ministry of Defence of DNR Edward Basurin. He also explained that mercenaries from this company carry out the orders of the US State Department at flashpoints, and are engaged in arms trafficking.
PS. Gradually there is a natural increase in foreign military presence, in light of the fact that the situation more and more clearly begins to remind one of scenarios like the Korean War. Just as in the case of Russian support of the DNR and LNR, the American “Voentorg” operation with support of allies and satellites, has two levels – legal and illegal.
At the legal level we observe:
1. The appearance of Instructors, who train officers and staff within the story about “doctrines” and “staff preparation”.
2. Information transfer from the American satellite group “allegedly with restricted clearance”.
3. Deliveries of outfits (uniforms, bullet-proof vests, {razgruzki}, helmets).
4. Deliveries of special devices (thermal visors, night vision devices, target indicators)
5. Deliveries of special equipmente (countermortar radar, REB devices, armored vehicles)
6. Concentration in Eastern Europe of mechanized units of the army of the USA.At the illegal level we observe:
1. The active operation of private military companies (Academi, ASBA Otago, Greystone, Green Groop)
2. Illegal deliveries of small arms from Eastern and Western Europe.
3. Illegal deliveries of armored equipment from Eastern Europe.
4. Development of information and reconnaissance infrastructure on the basis of being state agencies of the Ukraine or under cover of the international organizations of the OSCE type.
5. Operation of instructors and military advisers whose presence in Ukraine is not officially announced and not revealed.From what does not yet have obvious confirmations:
1. Artillery deliveries from countries of Eastern Europe.
2. Armored equipment deliveries from countries of Western Europe.Basic channels of distribution of foreign military influence:
1. Airfields of Southeast Ukraine on which supply and transfer of special staff is engaged by military transport aircraft of the USA.
2. Railway junctions of Western Ukraine through which pass transit units with arms and ammunition from Eastern Europe.
3. Airfields of Central and Western Ukraine to which are delivered legal deliveries of equipment and technique, and as the legalized staff – instructors, “inspectors”, and “observers”.
4. The Odessa port is used for illegal arms supplies by sea, as well as for illegal arms traffic.The primary countries involved in military support to the junta: USA and Poland.
The primary objectives which the military support achieves, is enhancing the level of fighting capacity of the VSU and the controllability of the progress of the war. Therefore the basic structural changes for VSU are associated not so much with deliveries of arms (which as a rule are outdated), but with a change of organizational logistics, reconnaissance, information, and command structures, which should increase the effectiveness of operations of the VSU.
Overall, the situation with foreign military man presence continues to develop and becomes more and more systemic. The fruits of the foreign “voentorg” operation may begin to be evident by July-August. At this stage the interior transformation of the VSU is in process and goes rather slowly due to irregularity of organizational structures and low level of command structures, to which is added a high level of corruption, misunderstanding by a considerable portion of the officer corps of the requirements of modern warfare, low level of technical preparation of staff when operating with unfamiliar technology. But one should not be deceived, these are problems which are surmountable to a certain extent, and with which military advisers and instructors are now properly engaged. As a result, the USA and its allies are trying to remake the army of the junta in the course of the war for its own needs and in order to resolve the necessary issues. For this reason they must not be at war on the front line, and therefore at this stage of war, you will hardly see the American Marines or any mechanized unit in the first line. They can appear only in hardened scenarios in the Ukraine section.
For now, “semi-legal voentorg” is sufficient, which in principle reflects the line of Obama’s administration for long-term opposition without direct military involvement of the USA. Hawks wish to add to the above-stated points open delivery of American lethal weaponry and more active involvement of the Pentagon in this war. This all proceeds against the background of low and medium-intensity fighting (both sides are actively using heavy artillery and tanks), which in fact began on April 12, and I do not think this will stop, since even the very first point on a “ceasefire” is de facto not being carried out. One must not even speak of the “withdrawal of heavy arms”. As a whole, the foreign military presence will gradually the nature of the ongoing war, which will become more and more systematic, organized, and centralized, from both sides. It is already not a war of semi-deployed VSU with the militia. This is a war of regular armies, trained and continuing to be trained by military advisers and instructors.
Situation on the front as of April 23rd
1. Military operations as before are low-intensity on most of the front, and medium-intensity in a number of sites – Bakhmutka, Peski, and now also under Schastye. High-intensity military operations are primarily under Shirokino, where practically the entire spectrum of arms is being used.
2. Shellings of cities continue, and first of all the front regions of Donetsk are exposed to junta artillery attacks. There are no serious[ly injured] victims among the civilian population. Although the shellings are systematic, their intensity varies from mid-range to low.
3. DNR military intelligence has reported that concentration of junta groupings is complete and they are prepared for approach. The basic areas of concentration of the battle groups are all the same – no substantive changes in location of the opponent were noted. No withdrawal of heavy weapons is recorded, quite the opposite.
4. For about a week the VSN is in a state of heightened combat readiness, and a considerable proportion of heavy equipment is already moved into position. In the LNR, engineering operations at sites of possible VSU attacks are continuing.
Overall, after medium-intensity large-scale operations resumed April 12, the sides have continued preparatory work for high-intensity large-scale operations against the background of diplomatic maneuvering, and this is not a secret to both sides, who regularly accuse each other that the enemy is beginining to attack first.
Analysis:
There is very little doubt left in anybody’s mind that the junta will resume a full-scale attack on Novorussia. Likewise, it appears that any hopes for a weakening of the US and/or European support for the Nazi junta are now dead. If the long string of murders of political opponents including a well-known and iconic figure like Oles Buzina shocked *nobody* (least of all the millions of European “Charlies”!) then probably nothing will. Furthermore, there are no signs of another “Maidan” which could topple the junta. Yes, there are protests here and there, but nothing which could seriously threaten the regime. To the contrary, all the signs are indicating that the US is holding the Ukraine in a very firm grip and that the predictable US plan is to restart a full scale war between the Nazi-occupied Ukraine and Novorussia with the option to involve Russia (which has been the plan all along).
The regime is clearly “going for broke” and not even pretending to solve any of the innumerable problems of Nazi-occupied Ukraine. Both Poroshenko and the Ukie Rada, apparently, are spending all their time and efforts into further provoking Russia, by seriously discussing a law to nationalize all Russian assets in the Ukraine, re-writing history books, adopting resolutions saying that Russia has invaded the Ukraine, etc. Nazi death squads, now trained by the USA, are now supposedly crucifying and burning “separatists” alive, while the US Gauleiter in Kiev tweets photos of Russian air defense system taking in Moscow in 2013, as proof of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
In the meantime, the US is doing exactly what it always does: it sends in US forces to train local death squads while building a “coalition of the willing” (US+UK+Canada+Poland), to do with no form of mandate or permission, that which it could not get approved legally (by the UN or even by NATO!). It appears that the debate inside the US “deep state” about the risks of the current strategy is over and that the Neocons have prevailed.
In practical terms this means that we are back to “square 1”: the question is now “can Novorussia withstand the Nazi onslaught alone with only the help of the “Voentorg” and “Northern Wind” or will Russia be forced to intervene?”
Honestly? I don’t know. And neither does anybody else.
By all accounts, the junta forces have become better but so have the Novorussians. Zakharchenko has announced that the recent voluntary mobilization was successful at 110% of the expected, which sounds very good, in particular with only volunteers, but it does not really tell us if Novorussia will have the 100’000 men under arms, by June, as was promised by the same Zakharchenko. Also, there appears to be a lack of equipment for such a large force, but then again, judging by what happened earlier this winter, we can expect the Russian Voentorg to fully open it’s spigot, as soon as the Russian intelligence services conclude that an Nazi attack is inevitable.
Now, let’s be honest here, the “military aid” offered by the “USUKCNDPL” coalition, is bordering on useless, as is the gear shipped so far, to the the junta forces. This “assistance” is much more about appearing to be doing something grand than actually getting anything done. Not only does it take a lot of time to train any force, (un-)natural selection has done a much better job than any US “advisor” to increase the quality of the junta forces. Still, the advantage in morale and tactical skills should remain on the Novorussian side.
Always keep in mind that the real goal of the next Ukronazi offensive will not be to defeat Novorussia, but to pull Russia in and then be defeated by Russia. Such a defeat at the hands of the Russian military will probably provide NATO with a justification for its existence for the next 50 years and completely crush any European desires to rid itself from the EU’s current status of “voiceless US colony”. Should that happen, the much awaited “new Cold War” will be again in full swing, the US military-industrial complex in complete bliss and the US population suitably “re-terrified” by the next “global enemy”.
There are some indications that more and more European politicians are beginning to understand the risks, but they are too weak to meaningfully oppose the AngloZionist hegemony.
Having a war in Europe on a regular basis has always been the linchpin of British foreign policy and this “tradition” has been fully passed on to the US “successor empire” (which immensely benefited from both WWI and WWII). What the Americans want is plainly simple: a major war in Europe, but also one contained to Europe.
War therefore appears to be inevitable. How big it will be now only depends on women and men defending Novorussia against the Ukronazis.
The Saker
Yesterday I asked question regarding one of the “proofs” that they bring regarding the alleged presence of Russian troops in Ukraine (the case Anton Tumanov), but I realized suddenly that it’s an issue similar to what Arthur Butz brought in the “elephant conference” in 1982, it’s a question of context and perspective where the bearer of the legend use cheap tricks to lead people to focus on the details and miss the bigger picture.
There are hundreds of US soldiers who die in peace time every year, so among the hundreds of Russian soldiers who die during training exercises every year, we can expect one or two mothers of these guys to swallow the Western propaganda rather than the version of the Russian government, or even to lie for political/monetary reasons, when it’s not an opposition journaslist who put false claims in their mouth.
The bigger picture now:
-In January the Chief of Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Viktor Muzenko contradicted his own government by saying that the Ukrainian army was just fighting local residents, not Russian troops. On April, 11, the chief of France’s military intelligence, General Christophe Gomart, rejected those claims. If you had 20,000 regular troops in Ukraine, forced to use old T-64 instead of their T-90, with no air cover, they would complain and talk to their relatives by phone, by emails, by mail, throught returning friends, or when they go back home. The whole population of Donbass would be well aware of this, you would have thousands of spouses to organize protests in Moscow, calling Putin a liar, camping in the streets days and nights and showing the picture of their husband. Instead we have contradictory (US) claims about 5,000 or 20,000 Russian regular troops. Pictures taken one or two years earlier showing Russian equipment elsewhere. A Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia partially financed by the US government which brings hundreds of anonymous names like “Boris G”, “Igor X, 22 year’s old”, and 2 or 3 cases where the names are not anonymous and are published in a small opposition newspaper in Russia. This is a joke.
Elephant
No sorry I do not think so. Not even Ukies are so stupid.
They pretty well realize that if they start the war again Kiev will be in the crosshair.
Lvov naturally also.
The point is they don’t care. Porky and Yats not there to help build a modern state. They are there to start a war. They have no intention of sticking around afterwards.
Absolutely.
And the fantasy of elites is to get rid of the over population of Europe and smash Russia same time. The results will be terrific for themselves, at least for a while. European elites (you can call them anglozios etc.) have their tradition of profiting hugely of major wars. They are experienced.
Very true.
I wonder by who and how Porky will be compensated for his very big, very profitable and now expanding chocolate factory in Russia? What is the quid pro quo?
“Porky and Yats not there to help build a modern state”
Since the messianic neocon/libs have used 5 billion (american taxpayers) dollars into placing chosenite oligarchs into power I’d argue the opposite. They want to make Ukraine into their own dictatorship/empire. I still view this coup as an attempt to rebuild Khazaria. Of course weakening Russia at the same time..
Do not underestimate the capacity of humans for stupidity.
In an open, well structured, democratic organization intelligence tends to be additive, with groups decisions being better than individual ones. In a closed, tyrannical, over-competitive, organization, stupidity is additive.
Those who offer some intelligence are now often murdered or chased away (in both Kiev and the US and EU), so stupidity grows under positive feedback mechanisms.
(cf ‘groupthink’.)
Blue, you said “In an open, well structured, democratic organization intelligence tends to be additive, with groups decisions being better than individual ones. In a closed, tyrannical, over-competitive, organization, stupidity is additive.”
Really a good point, thanks. US top echelon tend to hold their position by heredity, so that stupidity is less likely to be weeded out. Eg, Bush jr. was really dumb.
bush jr was a drug addict…
Troll alert..
One, Why Blue it’s very hard to read.
I do believe Russia will stay on the side lines and not do what Amerika wants them to do.
A good fight makes plenty of money for the Russian/American MIC.
I don’t get the impression the Russian MIC is as connected to the government as is the American MIC. And personally I don’t think it is just the MIC which pushes US militarism – it is in the nature of an Empire to spend a lot of the Empire profits on maintaining the Empire, and that can be done only with weapons.
In fact the entire shift from facing external threats to facing internal threats (dissidents), which was accomplished via the 9/11 operation, cannot be explained via the MIC theory since the largest beneficiaries of domestic surveillance (the “Stasi State”) are relative upstarts like FB and Google as well as other IT companies like IBM, CSC and Booz Allen, rather than the MIC stalwarts like Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, L-3 Communications and Boeing (though they have all benefited as well).
I think the elites’ strategy here is to force Russia, China and Iran into an alliance. As well as to create a Sunni Caliphate in MENA. They’re working quite hard on that one.
“I think the elites’ strategy here is to force Russia, China and Iran into an alliance. As well as to create a Sunni Caliphate in MENA. They’re working quite hard on that one.”
are ou nuts?
can you reasonwhy the elites strategy does not include Russia, China and Iran Elites to to create a Sunni Caliphate in MENA. ??
Read Douglas Reed’s “The Controversy of Zion”.
You are missing one layer of the power structure, the one whose aims are critical to understanding what is going on and why.
If the objective is to draw Russia in.
Do you think this will happen?
Or will they claim Russia are fighting anyway?
Putin is clearly too smart to be entrapped, especially by the likes of Obama and Nuland. Howver, they will keep upping the stakes and at some point Russia would have to act directly and openly. What Putin does will be anyone’s guess. I must admit he has been ahead of me a few times. Though I did call that he would not invade Ukraine last year.
Still Russia cannot allow Novorussia to fall. So a Russian invasion of Ukraine is still on the cards. But! everyday that Putin delays makes such an invasion more and more viable. The problem for a Russian invasion is not military, its geopolitical. If Putin had invaded in february last year the geopolitical damage to Russia would have been immense, possibly fatal. The current Sino-Russian strategic alliance would definitely not have happened. There would have been a complete rupture of relations with the EU. Plus it may well have sunk BRICS. Certainly the AIIB would have been a nonstarter. Not to mention the damage to the UN and the Russian veto there.
These are the concerns that Putin has to deal with that the armchair hotheads in blog comments sections can ignore.
However, if Russia invades in say, july this year. Things will be completely different. The world has seen the true character of the regime in Kiev. The BRICS countries have already sided with Russia on the Ukraine issue. France and Germany have seen the light regarding US manipulation of the EU (they can’t oppose said manipulation, but I doubt they will destroy relations with Russia over Ukraine now). Sanctions against Russia are facing stiff opposition within the EU itself.
What this means is that the longer Russia can delay direct open military action in Ukraine, the better its geopolitical situation becomes. And the worse it is for the US and the Ukie regime. A Russian invasion next summer would be even better than one this summer. But of course thats not only up to Russia to decide. NATO has a big say.
I suspect that Russia has already started talking to China and the rest of the SCO and BRICS about a possible Russian army direct intervention in eastern Ukraine. Russia will cover it’s back ahead of what it knows is coming.
Ngoyo, yes, you’re right. Putin’s delaying tactics did allow public opinion to catch up to the reality of what’s happeing (i.e., unmask media lies).
Something’s bothering me. Wonder if you’d give me your opinion. The EU is so much under Washington’s thumb that they don’t dare facilitate a gas pipeline although they wd benefit from it. Nor do they dare suspend sanctions.
Yet, w/o the slightest hesitation they all sign on to AIIB. Beginning w US’s special ally, UK. I smell a rat. Why did US have no control over them in this one instance?
I want to know what the Rothschilds are doing, who they are allying with and to what ends.
Regards
Penelope IMHO the Euros joining AIIB is because they want to be part of the game. They won’t control it but they will have a voice. Thats better than being outside looking at the party over the fence. I have no doubt that its also a trojan horse strategy especially from the US point of view.
For the US, I believe their first choice was to kill it. A major world crisis with Russia and China on the one side and the US and Europe on the other would have achieved that. But it did not happen. Russia played it cool and prevented it. Hence the US could only apply limited pressure on Europe vis a vis China. Notice that Russia did not join AIIB until the last moment. That was precisely to blunt the ability of the US to pressure europe not to join. Second best for the US is to strangle it slowly through manipulating the US clients who have joined. How that will work remains to be seen.
Another factor here is just money. As they say, a capitalist will sell you the rope with which to hang him. The UK was the first Euro to jump into the AIIB it was also the first to set up Yuan trading in Europe. So London will be a major Yuan trading center, they could’nt keep out of AIIB.
As for the Rothschilds and the other masters of the universe, they have survived so long by being adaptable. No doubt they intend to corrupt China from within and in the end take control there. I don’t believe it will work this time around. I think the days of European mastery over the world (and that includes the Euro diaspora, US etc) are over. Asia’s time has come. Again.
Ngoyo, I hope you’re right. It just makes me nervous not understanding what the Rothschilds are up to. I didn’t think of the significance of why Russia didn’t join AIIB until the last minute– good point.
There’s an extremely good article on China I think you’d appreciate. I learned from it, recommend it. Excerpt:
Administrative Spirituality and Strategy: Chinese tradition and culture is unique in being built around a form of administrative spirituality. It might be thought that this derives from forms of ancestor worship, whereby one’s worth is defined by practical contributions to the family (past, present and future), of which one is a member.
Moreover, the family can extend to include many bloodlines as one works to make a substantial contribution to the lives with which one interacts. This is not articulated in these terms but reading of the Confucian and other classics tends to nurture this sense of spirituality and fulfilment. Competition is not eliminated from life but it is refined by a sense of inclusiveness, a preference for soft strategies and a capacity to seek victory without destruction. In some ways it almost seems to lead to the Chinese being more demanding of themselves than of their enemies, who were not infrequently subdued by a tributary system where more was given than was received.
http://nsnbc.me/2015/04/14/western-nonsense-and-the-rise-of-china/
Thanks for sharing this article Penelope. Mr Little’s observations convey deep and thoughtful understanding of the Eastern and particularly Oriental cultural mind. There’s little doubt in my mind, however, that most of the West would continue to practice this Intellectual Apartheid in the near future.
Absolutely on the money .
The sanctions have helped Putin immeasurably in his efforts to reform the Russian economy, and to build a firewall together with China to protect against the looming financial chaos in either or both of the EU and the USA. Putin could not devalue the ruble himself without significant WTO problems, before he is ready to withdraw from it, but devaluation by sanction has been important to generating the import substitution and self-sufficiency aspects of the firewall. Putin could not induce the oligarchs to return capital flows back to Russia for investment, without the threat of sanctions and seizure by the West. Putin can crack down on corruption as a patriotic necessity, without provoking a politically troublesome backlash, while facing an external, existential threat. Putin could not have overcome the internal inertia to developing an alternative to the SWIFT system without the sanctions threat. Putin could not have maintained and even increased state revenues, in the face of the oil price collapse, without the ruble devaluation. One important import substitution has to do with getting essential components, such as gas turbine and rocket engines, manufactured in modern plants in Russia, rather than in decaying Soviet era plants in the Ukraine. There is a new naval base being built on the east coast of the Black Sea at Novorossiysk about 300 km north of Sochi. Did anyone think that the new road and rail network to the northern Caucasus was just for the Winter Olympics? The Black Sea submarine fleet is already based there. It was intended to replace Sevastopol eventually, but as Obama boasted, the USA caught Putin off guard with the Maidan, and the Crimea made an unplanned return to Russia. Putin had to adjust quickly from his slow but sure previous plans to disentangle Russia from the Ukraine, plans which also included the proposed South Stream gas line. The Empire doesn’t like “vassals” planning to evade its embrace. So, it struck back, thinking that Putin wasn’t ready. Fortunately, he was ready enough, and the coup and sanctions played into his hands, with only a small speed bump for him to overcome. Now, it seems, the Empire may be trying to whipsaw Putin, by driving the ruble value back up again quickly to nullify the import/export advantage, and to disrupt state revenues before the price of oil recovers. Time is at a premium, but on Putin’s side. By the end of this year, the US fracking industry will all be bankrupt, and its junk-bond-derivative pyramid will implode.
Another piece of the plan: http://thewealthwatchman.com/were-watching-history-change-course-before-our-very-eyes/
Question,
Of course they will go on SAYING that there are Russian troops fighting, but they need the reality in order to stop the economic integration of Eurasia– and therefore the further weakening of NATO, the means by which US rules EU.
I think the Russian strategy will be to have more Ukrainian regions rebel, and be supported in their rebellion. Free Donbass/Lugansk territory cannot be extended beyond their oblasts because it will look like aggression. So the other territories of Eastern/Southern Ukraine must rebel. I suppose the increased volunteers that Zakarchenko is calling for are partly from the other soon-to-rebel oblasts.
Ha Ha Ha That is also my wishful thinking, but that is not going to happen. The Ukie fascist network
was reinforced there. We can be certain about that. Logic dictates that.
The thing that will end this conflict is the economic collapse of the USUKCDNPL.
Between peak oil (some say ‘theory’ in a dismissive voice, but facts support theory so far) and the silly notion that the bankers can fix the economy by printing more money, the NATO economies are slowly coming apart. It might take a few more years before it is obvious to every cab driver but the process is inexorable.
references: The Oil Drum, The Automatic Earth, Club Orlov, The Archdruid Report, et. al.
Another interesting blog on the future of our economies is this one:
http://ourfiniteworld.com/
But clearly, this will not only affect NATO countries, but rather the whole world. It may just be that the NATO countries are those in which people so far have been leading the most decadent lives, and hence the transition there will bring about the most changes.
The world will be better off. Particularly the BRICS countries which are preparing for it. It won’t be pretty but the countries that are prepared will come out faster and be the leaders of the new economy.
That blog is interesting, but I don’t buy the central idea that seems to drive most of the blogger’s take on what’s going on. That is, she says that the increased inefficiency from extracting resources that are harder and harder to use (lower grade ores, further offshore oil, tar sands et cetera) is sufficiently great that it creates an overall decrease in efficiency in the economy as a whole–that, for instance, on average each worker is producing less because of this phenomenon. This, she believes, explains various things about the modern economy such as decreasing pay for most workers, the recent drop in oil prices and so on.
The problem IMO is that primary resource extraction represents a very small proportion of employment, and technological change is increasing the efficiency of everything else. The difficulty of extracting resources slows down the rest of the economy only to the extent that those resources increase in price as a result; when, for one reason or another, they temporarily drop, it is simply good for the traditional manufacturing-and-transportation parts of the economy, the parts that deal in real things. It can be bad for the weird-ass financial economy which is increasingly dominant these days.
To me, a much more plausible model for resource prices, especially oil, is the “choke-chain” model which unfortunately I forget where I read it: As supply of energy gets more difficult and/or supplies decrease, prices rise. When they rise high enough, it chokes off economic activity. Demand decreases, prices drop. As prices drop, on one hand the real economy begins to pick up, but at the same time tougher sources become un-economical to extract; demand rises and supply falls at the same time, so as the economy begins to surge forward it is choked off again as prices rise. The high prices, though, stimulate renewed extraction efforts. Supply rises as demand drops, prices fall again and you have this start-stop bouncyball effect where every time the economy starts to move forward it will pull on the choke-chain which, as resources get further depleted, will get tighter and tighter.
Meanwhile, lower wages currently have little to do with resource prices. They have to do with upward redistribution, as the oligarchs have used laws and low-employment policies to break the ability of the average worker to negotiate wages, either individually or in unions or what have you. The bottom line there is, the more unemployed there are, and the worse their squalor (eg due to no social safety net), the easier it is to dump employees and replace them with hungry new ones, and the greater the fear of falling into that pool of unemployed poor people. The only defence against that is group action, which is why the oligarchs always make it harder to unionize, militarize the police, repress protest and so on.
Thank you for a very astute analysis. The elites goal to create impoverished mases. A neo-feudal structure, with the masses so consumed with fighting for the scraps and simple survival they are unable to focus upon the system enslaving them. A fully compliant mass of exploitable automatons.
The only problem with that strategy is that in a world where wealth is created and maintained by repeat sales of consumable product you need a mass market. TUrn that mass market into serfs and they stop providing wealth. The debt merry go round stops and all that is left is resentment, anger, revolution and the heads of the 15 on stakes.
While some might find that prospect desirable I think the price might be a bit higher than many would like their children to pay.
Eagle eye
Eagle Eye, I think the final goal is not wealth; it’s power & if you have enough of that you have all the wealth that’s available & to heck w progress. Ruling a planet is a religion w these people. If they get full control they’ll reduce global population drastically, be messing around w our DNA, etc. They recognize no moral limits at all. Think of all the deaths they are responsible for.
We are not talking about Greed here; we’re talking about psychopathic need for absolute power.
I might add that the collapse could accelerate if some as Russia’s ‘sanctions’ take effect: the progress toward creating a Eurasian Union, the AIIB, etc.
One day the last straw is laid, the camel dies, and the economies of the west simply unravel like a moth-eaten sweater.
Almost every little thing in the USA is made in China, for example. WalMart stores are already being closed. How long does an economy last without ‘stuff’?
And equally to the point is,how long will USSA last if Russia ‘shoots out the lights’?
no TV,no air-con,no fridges,no supplies of cool stuff.I would hope EMP is well forward in Russian plans.Then we’ll see how neocons run their profitable war machine with candles.
That option is probably on some plan, somewhere. It makes sense, as it leaves less of a mess behind than a ground-zero attack. At least until the nuke plants all go ‘Fuku’..
But I have seen a number of comments on various blogs that the “grid” barely functions on a good day now, and with increasing frequency we see news stories about a thunderstorm taking out a sector of it here and there.
The primary plan is probably to wait and try to stay calm until the grid falls apart on its own.
According to world famous corporate fraud investigator, Greg Palast, the nuclear power plants in the U.S. went “Homer Simpson” a long time ago. Anything to save a buck. The engineers and technicians at the plants are not the Homer Simpsons, but the executives are.
XbNB, An EMP, especially in light of how much it’s been hyped, is far more likely to be a false-flag event by US’s own govt, but blamed on Russia.
It is obviously very visible that everything is falling apart especially the neocon’s plan to enslave the world.
People are earning less and less and who is going to buy this garbage products like Wall Mart, Target style?
Game is over, neocon’s missed a point and they have distroyed the golden eggs from the former Eastern European countries because of the psychotic greed
Which facts support “peak oil”. Care to give a brief run down?
Fracking. Tar sands. Corn ethanol.
It’s all about EROEI. More info at the blogs I mentioned, and also at Gail Tverberg’s blog “Our Finite World” mentioned by Saibot. Not enough room to go into detail here, but the “energy” (oil) industry is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Countries which are not part of the hegemon have most of the remaining oil reserves. Libya (now part of the hegemon, I guess), Iraq, Iran, and Russia.
So, it looks like the hegemon has used it own resources faster than the others. Doesn’t it?
And maybe that is what made the hegemon a hegemon in the first place, the faster use of available resources.
There is some hints that oil fracking might be even unprofitable business, and I mean in real life terms, they use more energy to produce it than they get there out. Most of the fracking business seems to be for purely propagandist or image making purposes. Even if it was not completely meant to be..
Why is it that peak oil people can never give a simple uncomplicated argument? Just give the facts. Is the oil running out or not?
Are reserves dwindling?
Are prices rising?
Has the potential to find new oil in the planet been exhausted?
I just want to establish a factual rather than speculative basis for peak oil. If we are running out of oil a few non speculative factual indicators should be all thats needed to prove that.
Why don’t you do your own research?
The whole topic is quite a complicated, but it could be very much obvious that something that the mother Earth has developed during millions of years of organic material is limited and sort of one-shot resource. And we have used it quite a speed and we are not getting anything like that instead.
The actual figures of global energy consumption can tell it quite well what kind of chaos we are heading towards. 80% of all energy used we got of fossil fuels. And as we know, it’s quite soon to fade away. And the very crucial thing is that the maybe most important element of so called welfare state is the ability to transfer people and goods by different types of vehicles. And that whole thing is going to come down quite soon and harsh when the fossil fuels are declining in the very forecoming future. Oil first and then gas.
These are not good news at all for industrialized human being. That’s very reason we are not at all interested in this particular topic in general. Human being who is enjoying the fruits of the use of fossil energy is not ready to hear that this whole show is just for short time. It’s sort of simple denialism.
@Miikka Lehtoaho
If you make a claim you have to support it not ask people to do their own research. Thats a cop out.
You say “80% of all energy used we got of fossil fuels. And as we know, it’s quite soon to fade away ” Whats your evidence for “it’s quite soon to fade away”? (oh well I suppose you’ll ask me to do my own research). I say that’s a bunch of BS. Why? Why don’t you do your own research ;)
The problem with this peak oil BS is quite simple. Nobody know how much oil there actually is in mother earth and they keep finding more and more of it. Even if the rate of major discoveries slows down it doesn’t mean that the oil contained in the planet is running out. It may just be running out where we are looking and for the technology that we are using. To say definitively that we are soon to run out of oil you must know definitively how much oil is left. Definitively not speculatively!
I recommend you take a gander at Steve’s site.an acknowledged expert on EROIE.
http://srsroccoreport.com/
The hypothesis that oil has organic origins was advanced by Russian scholar, Lomonosov in 1757. By the beginning of the 19th century the biotic hypothesis for the origin of rock oil, was being challenged and debunked by renowned scientists of the day, Humboldt and Gay-Lussac Claussius presented the Second Law of Themodynamics in 1850 that ran counter to Lomonosov’s biotic hypothesis. Berthelot produced a series of what are now referred to as Kolbe reactions and generation of petroleum by dissolving steel in strong acid producing a suite of n-alkanes. Biasson and Sokolov concluded that petroleum was unconnected to biological matter. Near the end of the 19th century the nineteenth century, the great Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev also examined and rejected Lomonosov’s hypothesis of a biological origin for petroleum. It’s long past the time to be referring to petroleum as a fossil fuel.
Oil Pick is a political argument.
The earth’s oil supply is unlimited. Oil origin is not from deposits.
Russians know this. Some westerners do know as well.
There is enough oil for 100 times today’s consumption.
See Thomas Gold. Reply only if you have read it.
Foka
Bummer I was just about to reply. What if I only saw the movie?
Check out peak prosperity podcasts for informed discussion of this topic.
Peak oil is the economic issue of the recovery of hydrocarbon energy requiring more and more energy to be consumed in proportion to that recovered. Google “energy return over energy invested” (EROEI) Translate the principle that when the marginal cost of production equals the price received, there is no profit, using oil as the currency of investment and return.
Hi,
No oil company in their right mind will publish their best estimates. They would be subject to unwelcome attempts to blackmail them, unwelcome takeover offers and risks to their own personal well being (pun intended).
To talk about peak oil is naive. We simply do not know much about what strategies the Rockefellers and Rothchilds are pursuing and over what time horizon. These are all very sophisticated players and none of them are above manipulating the market.
In 2014, we saw China’s GDP increase and its oil consumption decrease. This phenomenon has never been seen in history before. There are obviously enormous consequences, which I leave you to explore.
Thanks for your time,
Geneva observer
Fracking. Tar sands. Corn ethanol. Deepwater Horizon.
It’s all about EROEI. More info at the blogs I mentioned, and also at Gail Tverberg’s blog “Our Finite World” mentioned by Saibot.
Not enough room to go into detail here, but the “energy” (oil) industry is scraping the bottom of the barrel. It wouldn’t be pursuing those options if conventional oil were still easily available.
Countries which are not part of the hegemon have most of the remaining oil reserves. Libya (now part of the hegemon, I guess), Iraq, Iran, Russia, and a few others.
If you have the time and the inclination read Thomas Gold’s *Deep Hot biosphere* — A top notch scientist makes the case for the abiogenic theory of oil, which is what Mendeleev (chemist) and Russian geologists in general have believed for decades. But even with an unlimited supply of oil, how much can be pumped out cheap enough and quickly enough to keep up with fiat Dollar creation?
Methane is the building block for complex hydrocarbons that comprise all these things that people are now burning or otherwise consuming. The are commonly and easily detected throughout the universe, this doesn’t seem to be the issue for most.
What is relatively understudied and therefore an unknown is the replenishment rate. It is likely that this energy source has been extracted faster than it can be replaced from within the earth’s core. These are issues for compromised and honest scientists to debate. As it stands today CO2 is a toxin, bovine belching is a cause for concern.
There’s another aspect to US energy supplies: how much has been suppressed for political/corruption issues ? One thing that comes to mind is Clinton1 declaring a vast coal reserve in the western US a national park – at the behest of Asian sponsors and W. Va Sen Byrd. (FWIW, W VA’s coal mines are shutting down and it’s hard to find coal in the middle of ‘coal country.’
One telling aspect to this ‘dead dinosaur’ theory is the collection of Helium as a product of drilling. Look into it if you like.
I should add that I love plastics, they’re a wonderful gift. To see this stuff going into a landfill is a disgrace. Please dont talk to me about recycling.
My major point is that the lies are everywhere.
@Chimmy
I think the Russians are onto something with the Abiogenic theory. However, AFAIK the predictions of where to find deposits have been weak i.e busts. So I don’t know. The theory is very persuasive so my mind is open. There is also plenty of evidence for the biogenic side.
Dammit, didn’t mean to double-post there. Inadvertently hit the ‘post’ button before finishing, and ended up with 2 copies..
Anyway, the abiogenic theory has been pretty well debunked, as oil geologists who follow the fossils tend to find oil, and those who do not find dry holes.
Granted, there is abiotic oil on Titan, for example. It is not impossible for the universe to create ethane, at least, and probably longer hydrocarbons. But here on Earth, abiotic processes are slow, the oxygen-rich atmosphere interferes with hydrocarbon formation, and the resulting product is rare if it exists.
In any case, there isn’t likely to be an unlimited supply of abiotic hydrocarbons, either. We can’t keep expanding our usage along an exponential curve, while the hydrocarbon creation process is slow and constant. Simple Malthusian dynamics apply, if not the more strict Hubbert curve.
Here you go … :)
Oil is made of rotten dinosaurs. There’s been a limited supply of dinosaurs, which has been exhausted. Therefore the supply of oil is also limited, and there’s a bell curve because it looks nice, and we’re at the peak because that’s dramatic, and now the decline is inexorable because for whom the bell tolls … it’s not so hard to understand.
Lumi…”oil is made from rotten dinosaurs” is this too funny or what ???
Hundreds of years of gas under Iran – Russian oligarchs don’t want them to feed Europe.
Money.
Russian Oligarchs/administration don’t want Iranian oligarchs to get a fair share.
Russia worse than Iran.
Amerikanski, I believe “peak oil” is a hoax. If you google ‘Wm Engdahl peak oil’, he has at least one article that cites the names of the oil & gas exploration sources and their quantities.
Penelope,
I agree with your other remarks in this thread — it’s about power. Money is but an abstraction of power.
But in this case, I have to say I believe Engdahl is passing misinformation here. He may believe his own story, but still be wrong.
Now the question to ponder: what actions will the sociopathic elites take as this development dawns on them? I believe the current round of financial fraud, propaganda/information control, and war fever may just be a partial answer to that question.
Grexit and or Greek default is coming in may or june.It could be the end of the euro,the financial markets collapsing à la ‘lehman’..a war would be a perfect diversion for the banksters clique and their politics slaves obligés.
Germany Prepares For “Plan B”, Says Greece Would “Need Not Only A Third Bailout, But Fourth, Fifth Or Even More”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-25/germany-prepares-plan-b-says-greece-will-need-not-only-third-bailout-fourth-fifth-or
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-25/greece-about-lose-its-gold-again
What Will Happen To You When The Dollar Collapses?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-25/what-will-happen-you-when-dollar-collapses
Paul Craig Roberts: “Truth Is Washington’s Enemy”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-25/paul-craig-roberts-truth-washingtons-enemy
Anonymous, thanks for the Plan B link. But it says, “the second Greece is kicked out (or is forced to leave), the construction of the Turkish Stream begins, and with it the cementing of Russian energy dominance for the next decade, as well as the collapse of Ukraine (and the billions of western aid flowing into Kiev over the past year) into irrelevance.”
I don’t see that the anticipated loss in 2018 of Ukrainian earnings for gas transit will have any impact right now.
Joaquin Flores thought that Greece’s ability to steer an independent course cd depend on the strength of Greece’s armed forces & intelligence. I don’t know what he meant by that, but so far have seen no hint of any contemplated violence against Greece.
Thanks for the thoughtful post! Here are some more questions.
Assuming that this is correct, wouldn’t it be better for all of us if Russia did not get involved in this? They could assemble sufficient troops along the border to protect their country, and then let the Ukrainians themselves deal with their own issues. If you look at the history of US attempts to control foreign nations, it seems likely that they will mess it up by themselves even without Russian intervention.
On the other hand, I’m personally not so sure that the above assumption is correct. I have repeatedly read on this blog that involving Russia “has been the plan all along”, but I’m not sure what evidence there is for this statement. I have seen sufficient evidence for American interventionalism in Ukraine (Nuland-Pyatt phone call etc), but none of this was about getting Russia involved. So, what hard evidence is there for the existence of such plans on the American side?
search “brzezinski and wolfowitz” as a starter – this is the basis of the whole analysis and understanding
That indeed results in plenty of interesting material, thank you!
The following speech by George Friedman is also quite interesting, since he touches quite openly what (he believes that) the American interests are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeLu_yyz3tc
On second thought, neither Brzezinski/Wolfowitz nor Friedman claim the goal of US politics is to “pull Russia in and then be defeated by Russia”. At least as far as I can see. Instead, the main doctrine seems to be to keep Russia in check by installing pro-American governments in Eastern Europe and by making sure that Russia and Germany do not become too close. (Friedman regards a Russian-German friendship as the greatest threat to American dominance.)
So, can you point to a concrete reference where an important US political figure is advocating specifically pulling Russia in and letting them win as a pretext for starting a major war?
The Saker gives you the answer in the analysis above. It would be easy for Russia to win the war in Ukraine by smashing the Ukranian Army.
But ask yourself what kind of victory would that be? Russia would gain a broken, bankrupt nation crawling with retarded Nazi Orcs in the West whose purpose in life is to hate Russians. Against such stupidity the Gods themselves fight in vain. You can’t cure idiocy such as Nazism by reason. Only time will take care of that problem, but it isn’t Russia’s problem to solve, it is the EU’s.
The major point here is that a Russian military victory would have every swivel eyed Russophobe in Europe go nuts. Russia would win the poisoned chalice of Ukraine and lose Europe for another 50 years. Europe and Russia would be locked down in another Cold War with weak, militarized economies and shrinking middle classes where the elites gobble up all the money through their manipulations of the systems.
Compare that with Putin’s vision of a free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok with economic growth and stability and healthy growing middle and working classes in Russia and in Europe. Which scenario is more appealing?
The US war in Ukraine is a war on the middle class in Europe as much as it is a war on Russia. The US has already all but destroyed it’s own middle class but the voracious greed of the US/EU/Zionist/Saudi/Gulf elites will have them suck the blood out of the population in Europe next.
The goal of all this Ukraine shit(see gap 2020/leap) website,is to force the EU to sign the TAFTA which will destroy Europe economy even more and make the american multinational corporations masters for at least one century.
Lot of people don’t want this fucking TAFTA/TIPP signed because their intuition tell them it is going to be catastrophic for their future.That is why the Eurocretins (non elected cia cover agents like Tusk and many others)push for a 2015 agreement.The negociations are top secret(which smells like shit)and not going fast enough for the US.Though they absolutely need someting big(pretext,diversion) to force the Hollande,Merkel and other puppets to accept it against the will of their people,which means electoral defeat(Hollande,Renzi,Rajoy..) or retreat(in the case of Merkel,she will go to the UN).Of course the usual idiots(Poland,Baltics confetti states,Uk..)are for TAFTA/TIPP.But it is far to be the case in France,Italy,Spain,Germany,Benelux…small business will be destroyed,GMO will be authorized(19 have already been yesterday)…
Uncle sam has found the perfect idiot(idiot utile) in the Kiev Junta regime to comit suicide against his own population and against RF.
Saibot, the means by which a small war between Russia and NATO wd tear apart the continuing econ integration of Eurasia is this: It wd nourish the myth that Russia is dangerous to the existence of Europe, for which the solution is a stronger NATO & less trade dependence on Russia, especially energy dependence. A stronger NATO increases Europe’s subservience to US. If Russia “wins” the war, the myth is especially strengthened.
This does not mean that everyone will believe the myth, but that the war wd at least allow politicians to pretend to believe it, as there is a substantial faction (especially allied to banking circles) who WANT to continue within the US/UK New World Order.
This is analysis, and is not subject to proof, though you may certainly disagree. Also, if this preferred scenario canot be achieved by the US/UK there are of course others (false flag, etc.)
Saibot, the evidence that US wants Russia to get involved in war against NATO:
An international oligarchy composed of owners/chairmans of boards of largest transnationals and especially banks wants to contjrol the world– The New World Order. US still has the lead within this oligarchy.
Long-standing multi-generational dictum regarding accomplishment of this goal includes the thinking of MacKinder, who said “Who controls the world-island controls the world”. “World-island” means the biggest land-mass, Eurasia.
US believes that it must at all costs prevent the economic integration of Eurasia. Was of Russia vs NATO wd put an end for a awhile to the natural progression of this integration.
More simply, US/UK/EU/Zionists vs Russia/China/Iran looks a lot stronger to the US than US/UK/Zionists vs Russia/China/Iran/EU.
Zbignieuw Brzezinski is still the major US geostrategist. His book the Grand Chessgame talks about the disrability of “keeping the vassals from uniting’.
Please don’t post anything the regime can use.
After the videos were deleted on
you tube. It’s clear that there is an agenda.
Yeah,
Russian oligarch Sergey Brin is co-founder of google.
Same old same old.
Tell a new story, please.
The analysis translated-thank you-I should think also include in a minor way the Great Wall being built, plus further 3 layers of defences around Kharkiv etc being funded out of ukr national budget but possibly through IMF, USA , EU monies too as Ukr is a master of duplicity and corruption and forgery, eg
“He did not rule out similar structures would be erected in other locations. “Several more fortified facilities will probably be built in the Kharkov region. Apart from that, a total of 31 facilities will be built in territories adjacent to the combat operation zone, i.e. near the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” Rainin said,”
TASS.
Although it can be seen as an intention to justify paranoia, proof a rus agression(allegedly)is extant or can exist, looks as if Ukr is doing something to carry out the political will of its masters either for show, but also these can act as forward bases for future Ukr action, but also bases to retreat to to prevent another rout like Debaltsevo-perhaps the timing of ukr’s actions is partly tied into the completion of these constructions, which also serves to “funnel” any rus forces down towards Donbass region, thus “proving ” ukr was right all along?? And would serve to bog down any expansive AFN action too. Plus contain any more internal actions from partisans themselves say in Krovoy -Rog, Kharkiv.
Any alleged rus military activity, ergo must exist because it can only take place here. Any activity near north east ukraine then justifies NATO saying defences must be even stronger, just as before rus military exercises “somewhere near a border” have already been used by NATO to say Rus has hopped over the fence……………
Right now in ETB2, Basque public TV, the Spanish film “Gernika under the bombs” where we can see Nazi advisors guiding the operations resulted in the slaughter of the Basque town of Guernica.
Almost on the eve of the Victory Day, in this almost always banned corner of Spain, we do not forget, we do not forgive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEw8Y_giP5A
Elsi,why were Basques persecuted and who were the main persecutors? I understand that is not an easy question to answer but please help me. Reading,video material,audio,…-anything will do.
Well, Dragan, really difficult to explain, at least in a few words, but I´ll try it.
The greatest persecution took place during the dictatorship of Franco, with an appalling repression and prohibition of the native language, which gave rise to MLNV ( Basque National Liberation Movement ) within which an armed wing, ETA ( Euskadi ta Askatasuna – Euskadi and Freedom ) emerged. From the “democratic transition” some opted by political means, while others continued, increasingly radicalized, by violent means and, in my opinion, out of place.
There have been many deaths on one side and on the other, ( during the socialist government of Felipe González a “government terrorist group” operating with dedicated funds ( GAL – Anti-terrorist Liberation Group ) was also established.
The isolation of this area, by bad press and violence, both from ETA and the police, gave rise to that, for years, the rest of the country condemn us to ostracism ( almost nobody came here to sightsee, with an area of extraordinary beauty, fine dining and other attractions ) and literally condemn us, all Basques, we were part of MLNV or not. I can tell you that in my early years as a professional in southern Spain, I endured some coworkers, clearly very ill informed and who had never left their region, calling me “etarra” ( a terrorist from ETA ). Believe me, hard to endure in your 20 years and first time leaving your home.
Personally, I have nothing to do with this movement because I was too young when it was in full swing and my parents, who are not Basques, have not instilled me this ideology, but we all have suffered much here.
I can understand the birth of the movement, and even step up to the armed struggle, in a context of dictatorship. In a way, each with his peculiarities, the case of Novorussia.
Today here comes a long and complicated process of peace that missing culminate in the delivery of weapons by ETA, amnesty for prisoners who have not violent crimes and bringing near home those who remain in prison ( subject to a dispersion policy which also punishes their families, who have to do long trips to visit their relatives ).
Well, this is, roughly, what I can tell you in this manner.
I agree with them on the socialist model of society, but some sectors also want to impose only Euskera language, and, for this and for other things, I find them too nationalistic and, in a way, also some fascists.
I leave you an entry in Wikipedia, that maybe you can translate with a translator, which I consider quite full on MLNV.
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movimiento_de_Liberaci%C3%B3n_Nacional_Vasco
thanks Elsie…I didn’t know any of this…hmmm wish I could move there.
Elsi,a great thank you.
Well, you guys can thank Putin for allowing Kiev to regain strength.
Charette, we’ve asked before. Please, TELL US what you think he should or could have done. Preferably something that would not lead to a nuclear war.
What could he do? tell us.
should have done what Strelkov said in April 2014.
Strelkov had a thousand men and huge amounts of ammo, but withdrew from Slavyansk against orders (according to his own words). He then surrendered half of the territory Donbass had occupied. He was recalled and has criticized Putin ever since.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-two-pillars-of-russian-maidan-or.html Loong article. The Strelkov part begins w: “In order to try to understand who is the conservative counterpart”
He seems to have political ambitions and has at least twice taken the entire credit for the resistance, saying that it wd not have occurred save for his actions.
I suppose not backstabbing your allies or pulling the rug from under Novorossia when they are about to inflict a fatal blow to The Kiev regime, TWICE, would be a good start.
How much Putin has messed up is unbelievable.
1.not being prepared for this while celebrating still attacked sochi olympics.
2. not being prepared fro this by begging west not to put antimissile defense or at least say in writing that the missile can attack iran but nto to be used against Russia ! for 5 years Putin begged with backstabbing of Iran too.
3. by not allowing novorussia to be taken in russia or at least by not recognizing the illegitimate american regime in Ukraine.
4. by not objecting the taking away of black box by the english parasites the most vile and persistent enemy of Russia.
5. not making issue as to why the english liars held ontot balck box for 7 weeks without saying anything-contrast the result from blackbox of german airline withon one week.
6. always refusing to support Iran and Syria with s-300 delivery on one pretext or another.
7. despite the hot war in way the delusion of Russia to talk about how to avert the cold war.
8. knowing all the plots ,instead of defeating west and its proxies in middle east and elsewhere-help the west in all UNO resolutions.
9. helping the west by blaming only Houthis and stopping supply to Hauthis-while the need of hour was to supply to hauthis to kill as many British and american troops and agents as quickly as possible-but Russia acted opposite to that.
To anonym:
Don’t worry everything is playing well as supposed to be even it doesn’t look like right now. Be patient revelation for the world is coming very soon and everyone will be in shock why the world is in this mess
Russia is well outnumbered against it’s very aggressive and reckless opponents in West. I’m sure russian military experts and other officials are well aware of all the usual tricks of West. Their main goal (west’s) is to make Russia a 100% sure enemy in the eyes of western citizens. The public support is the main theme here. And there is not full support currently. But they (the real provocateurs) are working hard to get there.
I don’t know how they are going to get europeans to fight against Russia. If you ask baltic people it could succeed, but otherwise I don’t think so. – But they (the power people) are very much planning and considering it.
Miikka,
Western poll of E Germany: 82% say they were happier under the Communist system. From a Tariq Ali video (in English) on Telesur.
The things we hear govts say– even in the Baltics– may not be what the people believe. Many Poles are fed up with the “Russians are coming” myth. Look how anti-American:
Zmiana (change), which has proudly accepted the label of being the “first non-American party in Poland,” lists the exit of Poland from NATO, the nationalization and socialization of strategic sectors of the Polish economy, the establishment of a welfare state, reindustrialization, the protection of Polish agriculture, and reform of the democratic structures in Poland as the party’s principal demands. In terms of foreign policy,
Zmiana’s leaders have proposed reconciliation and deeper ties with the countries resisting American hegemony, such as Russia and China, with the aim of promoting a new “friendship and alliance from the Atlantic to Vladivostok,” i.e., a cooperative Eurasian continental bloc.
http://syncreticstudies.com/2015/04/17/the-birth-of-zmiana-and-the-syncretic-struggle-in-poland/#more-1762
They were happier with Stasi ?
Anonymous, Yep. It’s a 2-part article. Don’t overlook the 2nd part.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/homesick-for-a-dictatorship-majority-of-eastern-germans-feel-life-better-under-communism-a-634122.html
Also Ukrainians were polled just before Maidan & 49% said they’d been better off under the USSR. Actually it’s not surprising if you just compare average income, availability of education and medical care. It was a Western poll in December of 2013 & it’s online.
I believe some of the Balkans expressed similar views. They’ve been looted, de-industrialized by the West & the young have had to leave their country to get jobs, etc.
Yes. Everybody knew about it, and its methods have been quite nostalgic. Stasi was nasty, even many GDR military officers did not like it. But you cannot compare it to the monsters we have now in our living rooms.
What monsters ?
Farnborough has a deservedly world wide reputation for air accident investigation…..the failure is UN for not taking up rus. request for the investigation to be under UN authority
Novorussia was never in a position to inflict a fatal blow on Kiev. Whatever Strelkov says. Look at a map and see just how far Donbass is from Kiev. Then ponder the resources that would have been brought to bear by USA/NATO to prevent any so called “fatal” blows.
Strelkov, master of retreat. An honorable dude, but delusional.
Sure. And that’s why Hollande and Merkel, out of the blue, had an emergency trip to Minsk to negotiate with Putin, right when Debaltsevo was about to turn into a catastrophe for the west.
You guys can come up with all the excuses you want, but when the West goes after Crimea militarily Putin will no longer be able to hide behind silly excuses since he’s been telling Russians Crimea has now been fully return ped to Russia.
Will he sit there, doing nothing, when what he claims is Russian territory is attacked?
At that point, Russians will realize the emperor has no clothes.
Charette,
While we realize you have no brains.
@Charette
Its not clear what your point is from your arguments. If you are trying to say Putin “backstabbed” Novorussia. How could he have done that while Novorussia only survives today because of Russian support?
As to Debaltsevo notice that it was not part of Minsk3 and also notice that the Ukies were in fact defeated there. Was that a fatal blow? The Ukies are still standing! Notice also that when the fighting restarted in January it started all along the front line not just Debaltsevo. In fact Novorussia failed to make any headway anywhere along the front line other than Debaltsevo. So obviously they were not capable of striking a fatal blow at the Junta. Those are facts.
Look at a map of Ukraine and notice where Kiev is relative to Donbass. Ask youself how the small rebel forces would have fared fighting on the Dnieper river as opposed to fighting in Donbass.
You may not agree with Putin’s strategy but so far it has yielded spectacular results. Russia is not directly engaged in a major war with NATO. The NATO seizure of Ukraine is on life support, at NATOs expense. The EU’s united front against Russia is under internal attack. Andu Russia has Crimea and Sevastopol.
Which brings us to your speculation about Crimea. You say if NATO attacks Crimea Russia will be exposed (have no clothes). But thats just an if. A big if. They haven’t attacked it so far have they? Why should Putin cross that bridge before he comes to it? NATO can of course attack whatever they want. Putin can’t stop them. They can attack Crimea, or Kaliningrad or even Moscow. Others have tried before them, Napoleon and Hitler come to mind. Check out how well they did. Its easy for you to spin speculation after speculation in your head. Putin has to deal with the real world.
If you please read in recent months how Crimea is completely being beefed up militarily,and Crimea will never be surrendered……it would assist you in your awareness and conclusion formation.
You kick up a lot of dust, but never say anything, really.
If you have something to say, just say it.
If not, shut up.
You sound like a hysterical, rejected lover.
Charette, You said, “I suppose not backstabbing your allies or pulling the rug from under Novorossia when they are about to inflict a fatal blow to The Kiev regime, TWICE, would be a good start.”
This is a circular argument. You are assuming your conclusion.
Since this site has no credibility for you, why are you here? The corporate media hates Putin & Russia. So do you. So go there.
If he hadn’t been a Capitalist oligarch he could just have implemented a cold-war scenario.
I.e. you hit us we hit you.
Equal status.
It lasted for decades – no problem (apart from the fact the commis weren’t commis but fascist b**tards.
It was always a competition between the oligarchs.
Exactly. Of all things, he could have used his approval ratings to push for constitutional reform, including retaking control of the central bank.
I think it’s too late now.
He was too indecisive for too long.
Charette, Charette– such non sequiturs: “It’s too late now. He was indecisive for too long.”
Do you know anything about the constitutional reforms that are needed, whether Putin and his team have assessed the possibility of getting them through the Duma? Do you know that laws have been passed to do away with the most blatant of the conflicts of interest of some Duma members? Do you realize that small reforms regarding the central bank have been successfully made? Do you know about the successful alternate internal SWIFT system & that the international alternative SWIFT system is to be complete in May?
If you are just going to make snide comments w/o researching why your wishes haven’t been accomplished you might be happier behind the CNN curtain. We try to be a little more knowledgeable here. If you wd like to learn something about the difficulties in accomplishing (in a mere ten years) all that frustrates you I recommend http://lit.md/files/nstarikov/rouble_nationalization-the_way_to_russia%27s_freedom.pdf
Anonymous, I think the vision of the desired outcome is different. US makes the wreckage of Libya, Syria, Iraq, etc. Russia and China & Iran & people everywhere want peace and progress– to raise their children, have pets & paint the kitchen cabinets.
“Russia and China & Iran & people everywhere want peace and progress”
You are gullible – it has never been different:
Goering:
“Naturally, the common people don’t want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.”
The problem occurs when individuals are allowed by society to gather large amounts of power&money and then allowed to group to protect that status. War between similarly organised groups (nations or blocs) has always (and will always) occurred.
If Russia was the group with the most power there would be no restriction on them acting in exactly the same way as “the West”.
There is nothing more admirable in the way Russian society is currently organised compared to any other bloc.
All the constitutional reforms your refer to have resulted in a rate of economic inequality in Russia that is increasing – power&wealth are concentrating at an increased rate.
If Russia’s or China’s MIC was more powerful than that of US/West they would act in an equivalent (Capitalist) predatory way – look how China is building islands in South China sea in further effort to muscle their claims there.
No difference.
Its a good thing Putin is in charge not someone in the mold of the armchair hotheads. Putin is Russia’s best weapon and the reason Russia will most likely win in this confrontation.
Of course there is no way the Novorussians could have delivered a fatal blow to Kiev. A few thousand fighters no matter how well motivated could not have taken down the junta, not with NATO waiting in the wings to defend it.
As it is, due to Putin’s brilliant strategy, NATO has now been caught in the trap it set for Russia:
Russia was supposed to be spending billions a week right now, fighting a NATO supported insurgency all over Ukraine. Instead NATO is facing the insurgency and doing the spending.
Russia, as an occupying power, was supposed to be responsible for the pensions, social services and general upkeep of Ukraine, NATO is responsible for that now.
Russia was supposed to be the villain of the world. Instead NATO can’t understand how come Russia, and Putin, is becoming ever more popular world wide.
Russia’s economy was supposed to be crushed by now. Instead its recovering quite nicely and the doom and gloom predictions have been proven wrong.
Viva Putin!
Ngoyo, You don’t understand what Strelkov has explained to us during his strelkov v Starikov debate: Strelkov gave up Slavyansk (and half the rest of the territory) because it was indefensible. BUT, if Russia had just given him more arms he could have passed them out to the Slavyansk residents after taking Slavyansk & continued passing out arms as he captured one city after another all the way to Kiev. Clearly it’s Russia’s fault because they didn’t provide these extra weapons.
I guess training isn’t important. I guess reflecting about whether it’s a good idea to take Kiev isn’t important. A hunger for justice and victory is important; why consider the outcome of your actions?
I guess when you’re a member of a covert group there’s no reason to keep your mouth shut about it either.
Strelkov is a very charismatic figure & he speaks w great conviction, but he seemed unable to consider the merits of opposing arguments.
Personally, I’m getting rather tired of your broken-record, trollish, ranting and pronouncements contrary to solid facts. I’m about ready to simply ignore all your posts since so far they have little or nothing to offer in terms of either information or thought, although with plenty of obviously deceptive propaganda.
If you are not being paid to post this crap then you are losing out in all areas — not just intellectually, socially, and spiritually.
Hi Blue…yes every time…I mean every time…Charette posts, immediately after there are 2 or more anonymouses that back up her Putin-bashing comment and it diverts the thread sometimes for a whole page….I wonder why the mods let her keep coming back…she’s very disruptive….and perhaps these anon’s are her as well.
Ann,one person-multiple accounts is their MO,you got that right. Technically, they are congratulating themselves.
Some time ago (around 2 years if i remember correctly) Pentagon issued a tender for software that can allow just that. I think it is still on the site of MOD. I no longer have a link to it.
@ Dragan
Do you mean anybody can get it from their site just like that ?
No,i mean that MOD stated their intention to buy software with these capabilities. And some evidence leaked here in Serbia that local troll/bot army supporting our present president and PM,who are so against citizens of Serbia that it will make you puke if you knew, are using just that kind of software.
Masking your location,reminding you of your gender,synching time and a lot other thing.
Trolls/bots just got a modernisation kit.
Houw old are you? 16?
Benjamin Freedman:1h-17min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8OmxI2AYV8
He was a jew who converted to christianity after WW2,in the second part of the recorded speech,he refers to the Khazars as being 92% of east european jewry,and their violence and usury.
He dismisses anti-semitism as a smokescreen,as an insider politically and as a business leader he is a must to listen to,to all who loath zionism.
Arthur Koestler who wrote The 13th Tribe followed on from Benjamin Freedmans expose’
Thanks for the link. Can you, or anyone here, please instruct me where to search for location,timeframe of the existence of Khazar kingdom and reasons why the they migrated into Europe and when?
go to texe marrs site & get his new book, out only a year, called ‘DNA Science & The Jewish Bloodline’.
256pp
DNA Science and the Jewish Bloodline: Who are the Jews? What is their ancestry? Are the Jews a homogenous race? Are Jews descended from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob?
Today, DNA science reveals that almost all the Jews in the world come from Khazaria. They are not of the blood lineage of Abraham and the prophets, but of King Bulan and the pagan peoples of the Caucasus. The ancestors of today’s Jews are not Israelites but are Khazarians.
I would think a good part of the 256pp would be documenting their migrations over the centuries, since it is after all about their DNA tracking.
I think some of that information can be found in Koestler’s book [PDF].
Quote from Saker:
“Always keep in mind that the real goal of the next Ukronazi offensive will not be to defeat Novorussia, but to pull Russia in and then be defeated by Russia. Such a defeat at the hands of the Russian military will probably provide NATO with a rationale for the next 50 years and completely crush any European desires to rid itself from the EU’s current status of “voiceless US colony”. Should that happen, the much awaited “new Cold War” will be again in full swing, the US military-industrial complex in complete bliss and the US population suitably “re-terrified” by the next “global enemy”. ”
The above may be true. But in no way justifies Russia’s passivity in the face of such outrages against ethnic Russians in the Donbass and the rest of Ukraine. What I mean is: you would think that preventing the miserable fate and suffering of ethnic Russians (and most other Ukrainians) in the Ukraine should be much more of a Russian priority than trying to prevent Europe from continuing to be a “voiceless US colony”, something about which Russia can’t do much anyway.
Russia could have prevented huge amounts of misery in Ukraine by intervening early and decisevely to crush the Kiev regime in all of Novorussia, all the way to Odessa. It can still do so, though it will be more costly now. The longer it waits, the more costly and bloody it will be, and it will have to do it anyway, unless it wishes to show it does not really care if a massive cleansing of the Donbass takes place. And that it does not care if the entire Ukraine becomes a US military base against Russia.
It is NOT Russia’s business to prevent Spain, France, Italy, etc from being US colonies. They have been US colonies for decades, and they will most likely continue to be.
It is NOT Russia’s business to prevent the American populace from being re-terrified. They will always be re-terrified by whatever their rulers present as the Beast.
It is Russia’s business to take care of her kin who are being wantonly murdered in the Ukraine. And to take care of the dogs barking at her doorstep.
It is not so clear that an early intervention would have prevented suffering. The difference is that a lot of suffering would have been Russian soldiers dealing with bombs and snipers all over the country. And a high percentage of the population blaming Putin for everything. And the freezing and starving people would be shown all over the world on TV as being Russia’s fault.
Not denying that one wonders about this passive approach. How on Earth could Russia get the EU or most of Western Europe to get rid of US influence? Wouldn’t that first require the collapse of the US?
Why doesn’t the Kremlin want a destabilization campaign inside the Ukraine?
Thanks for your repetitive message. Must have posted it twenty times. Same argument ignoring reality.
Moderators: free speech rule of Saker applies to thought, not noise. When the same argument from the same guy reaches a repetitious level, it ruins the environment.
More signals, less noise.
It’s not exactly noise, but coordinated propaganda — perhaps the result of all those billion$ the US DOD and similar have spent on the ‘information war’ and the recent increase of efforts to attack truth in the ‘social media’.
It would be surprising if none of that immense effort did not find it’s way to this blog, or that the repetitive memes had no continuity from previous months.
Thanks for your repetitive message. Must have posted it twenty times. Same argument ignoring reality. Moderators: free speech rule of Saker applies to thought, not noise. When the same argument from the same guy reaches a repetitious level, it ruins the environment.
That is true, but as a bishop I knew once told me alas, stupidity is not a sin. And so I cannot make a rule against stupidity. I thought about it (A LOT!), I even imagined a rule saying “stupid posts will be banned” but, alas, alas, alas, because it is very hard (but not impossible) to define “stupid” this rule is open to too much abuse. So I prefer to err on the side of free speech even if “free” very much includes mantric repetition of unsubstantiated slogans. Sigh, rolleyes.
So is life…
Cheers,
The Saker
Hi Signalman…which commenter are you specifically speaking about ?
Specifically the one Anonymous I replied to in this thread. Anonymous on April 25, 2015 · at 2:59 pm UTC
That is the problem inherent in Saker’s doofus policy of allowing Anonymous as a name tag. Anonymity is one thing. Confusion foisted on the discussion threads is another.
Bad enough to welcome trolls. But on these important topics and long, content rich threads it is very time-wasting to allow Anonymous. The consequence is we lose interest in the frustration, waste time explaining things that normally would need little explanation.
Most posters make sense, even the many with whom we might disagree.
To allow the ignoramuses and party crashers who come to disrupt and give them the means to do so, well, I find it blasts noise over the signals.
Exactly. Giving themselves names would help people know whom they are actually talking to. It wouldn’t make them less anonymous from the safety point of view. Of course, sometimes it helps to be anonymous when there is a leech troll around, especially those of the argumentative kind, but these anonymouses don’t need to fear that; on the contrary, some of them are those leech trolls.
nah…I agree with Saker’s policy…but he could recognize these fakes….by the content not by the anonymous tag….and the moderators are letting them through….but to become more demanding about names….many famous people come in here under anon…I wouldn’t want that to stop.
So readers not knowing which anon is which is ok with you.
It is NOT Russia’s business to invade a sovereign country (Ukraine). Sorry, anonymous guy, but the people of the Ukraine voted to secede from the former Soviet Union and independence from Russia. That is what they voted for, including the Donbass region. It was an unfortunate ‘mistake’ in hindsight, but that was their choice. Unfortunately, the people of the Donbass are paying for their mistake now in blood. That is NOT Russia’s business in terms of international law, the rules governing a civilized world, unless you want to act like Hitler, who invaded sovereign countries with impunity. Russia does NOT want to be Hitler. But Russia will help ethnic Russians on their border to defend themselves from ethnic cleansing and provide humanitarian aid, which is a moral and ethical right, or should be, under international law. The Empire respects international law. NOT.
One hopes you realize that your position implies that the annexation of Crimea was a totally illegal move. Illegal from your own perspective. A logical corollary is that you should call for Russia returning Crimea to Kiev. There is no escaping that.
Unless you are for selective legality whenever it suits you.
A calm, detatched observation of events makes me conclude that your much vaunted International Law does not exist. This is an unavoidable conclusion that anybody can arrive at by simply watching the behavior of the United States and its vassal-allies, supposedly the Guardians of International Law, who bomb pretty much whoever they please whenever they want, no reasons needed.
John Pilger describes the essence of that pretty phrase, “international law” in a recent article:
Today, the world’s greatest single campaign of terror entails the execution of entire families, guests at weddings, mourners at funerals. These are Obama’s victims. According to the New York Times, Obama makes his selection from a CIA “kill list” presented to him every Tuesday in the White House Situation Room. He then decides, without a shred of legal justification, who will live and who will die. His execution weapon is the Hellfire missile carried by a pilotless aircraft known as a drone; these roast their victims and festoon the area with their remains. Each “hit” is registered on a faraway console screen as a “bugsplat”.
That is international law for you. Sorry for my lack of reverence toward such patently empty phrase. I insist Russia has not only the right, but the moral obligation, and the dignity obligation, to protect her kin at her own borders by using deadly and overwhelming force against the absolute monstrosity that the US has installed in Kiev.
Things change quickly. In the early post-coup days, Saker was once in a while acknowledging that he sometimes daydreamed of Russia invading and crushing the bastards, and that there was a limit to how much Russia would put up with in terms of outrages. I can’t believe that the direct shelling of civilians day after day, the daily spectacle of torn bodies lying in the streets we were used to at certain periods in this conflict, never were considered to go above any “limit”. It looks like there is infinite patience towards murder and destruction by Kiev, as long as it is done in slow motion. Screw that.
Well at least I should be thankful that you guys consider stupidity to be exempt from sin, and allow a certain amount of dissent on account of that.
Stupidity may well be the Original Sin.
Do you know how World War II got started?……think about it….
Crimea is not the same as eastern Ukraine. The people of Crimea always wanted to be part of Russia. Their right to self-determination was thwarted time and again until their recent accession. Crimea was not annexed; the people voted to join the Russian motherland. Nothing illegal about it under international law. International law is a joke, of course, but it is a useful tool like anything else of human invention. The hypocrites use it all the time.
Anon, Russia’s first priority must be the defeat of the US– for the sake of Russia, Ukraine & the world. Depriving US of an essential vassal, the EU, will just about defeat it.
Invading Ukraine wd be very satisfying, but wd seriously set back that priority– possibly even causing the Russian alliance to lose the war now being fought w the US. Russia is not omnipotent and must pay attention to the consequences of her acts. Your feelings of sadness and outrage over what is happening in Ukraine do you credit. But I believe you are urging an action which ignores the consequences.
Global public opinion is against the Outlaw Empire and its vassals; so, trying to maintain peace by not intervening will raise Russia’s stock further at the Empire’s expense. Kerry said that it’s Russia that must implement Minsk 2, which is 100% wrongheaded, but provides a great indicator. The only way for Russia to implement Minsk 2 is to intervene. IMO, Minsk 2 was setup for failure from the beginning, although it’s very clear which side caused it to fail–USkraine.
My guess for the resumption of open warfare is May 9.
Chomsky says much which has value. One thing is that whi8le one can argue that something needs to be done to resolve issues, such as tyranny, that does not necessarily mean war or military action, or force (a classic American tunnel vision).
It may come down to that at some point, but it is not the first thing to try, and often makes situations worse. I forget who said : talking of winning a war is like of winning an earthquake.
FUKUS is truly f*****.
This is like watching a bird caught in a net trying to escape its capture or a fly, center pieced in a sticky web trying to get airborne again; sad and pathetic.
The Russian hope for breaking Germany and France off from the ownership by the Anglo-Zionist oligarchy has always been a bit optimistic. Western Europe does so much business with the rest of the Anglo-American Empire, plus has the military and spy problem, that is more a long-term desire than something to solve the current issues in the Ukraine.
What I don’t get is why Russia can’t simply put some more powerful weapons in Novorossiya. Perhaps only do this once the war starts, but the US would be unable to respond quickly, and the rebels could break through and cause enough pain that it might cause a political collapse in Kiev. Sure, the Kremlin would still have a terrible situation, but at least the immediate problem of the rebels getting run over would be out of the way. Yes, the Western media would say it was a Russian invasion, but Russia could lie and just say it was the usual poor morale and incompetence on the Kiev side.
One consideration is that the US is not passive, but an active agent, when the internal politics are accounted for. If Novorossia achieves a too obvious victory that would likely lead to US congress and White House increasing it’s own supply of weapons and support dramatically, leading to escalation rather than resolution, which Putin wants to avoid.
Perhaps that’s good policy, or perhaps not — hard to know (although I think more not than so) — but it is a considered judgement, and also takes into account the internal conflicts in Russia.
This makes sense, yet it sounds like a poison pill sitution where success = failure because success (of Novorossiyan forces) leads to greater US-NATO involvement and commitment. Although the commitment already seems to be considerable.
Still, my inference from Blue’s comment is, how can the Novorossiyans win decisively, but sort of in secret, without USA-NATO quite seeing it or being able to respond either militarily or propaganda-wise. This would seem to be a riddle worthy of the Sphinx—How does one win while appearing to lose? Which doesn’t mean there isn’t a solution. But it would have to be very cunning.
Katherine
Anonymous, I doubt “more powerful weapons” wd make a difference except to kill deniability. Beside, wd cause an escalation on other side, no?
Or, maybe you have an idea of a specific weapon that wd make a diference? I have no knowledge in this area.
Blue and Penelope,
The US is just going to gradually escalate over the next year or two. Vietnam wasn’t built in a day. The Kremlin can reason that it is better to have that occur slowly than to provide the impetus for having it happen more quickly. OK, there is logic in that. But my point was more if the Kremlin wanted to break through somewhere to change the nature of the game. The US would not be able to get new and better weaponry to the front or even to Kiev in any kind of relevant timeframe. As to what weapons would be useful in breaking the Ukrainian lines and leading to a blitzkrieg, I would imagine that there are more modern artillery systems that could be targeted fairly precisely – and take out fuel and ammunition first, which may now be out of range.
In any case, the Kremlin has wanted a passive war, with no victory. So far, that is what they have gotten. There are many pros to that, but there have been many cons, such as the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of the Ukrainian part of the Russian Military-Industrial Complex, and the burdens of far more refugees than if the fight were an extra 30 kilometers out and the deaths had been 10,000 instead of 50,000. As one poster mentioned, the great thing that Russia has gained has been time.
And time is what Russia needs. Russia knows that a classh with nato/USA is inevitable. They have known that for many years by now but Russia is not ready yet.
Russia needs squadrons of PAK FA, more Yasen subs, Tank batallions of T99 Armata or whatever to be ready ro win on the bttle field or make EU to back off and leave US alone. So what russia do is to prolong this so called cal war
Hitler’s fatal mistake was that he rushed to war, before Germany was ready with its super weapons. Well, he got goaded into Poland, which was the trap set for him. Putin doesn’t want to be Hitler.
Even if Russia could win right now another issue is how much damage it would take now instead of waiting and building up while the US/NATO deteriorates.
But one must also consider if military action can be limited — probably can, but it’s not all that predictable since the enemy can make choices too. Problem is, there are several alternative narratives which can be used, with none of them very certain, and if war starts then any of the plans and predictions are likely to fall apart: there’s very poor predictability and much chaos with any of this.
Anonymous, Donbass lines WERE further out until Strelkov surrendered so much territory. I expect that in the next big campaign they probably will advance that 30 km that you want. We all dream of going as far as the Dneiper plus Odessa. But I think it can’t be from a Donbass blitzkrieg; the residents in those areas have to rebel; I hope they get organized soon.
The empire is weakening. We have the first failures of fracking companies, the closures of 5 Wallmarts in the fracking regions, closures of many Targets & McD’s. More people awaken every day. Financial failure must occur soon. Pepe’s last piece– on Silk Road in Pakistan mentioned for the first time that China is spending down her foreign currency reserves. We must hope they won’t have the means to torture Ukraine too much longer.
I’m not one to push all or even many of Strelkov’s positions, and my logic for an extra 30 kms was just about making life livable for the people in a few cities on the edge. Fewer refugees for Russia and easier to fix the major infrastructure points that have to be dealt with.
At this point, I doubt that a blitzkrieg is the way to go. The US has been building up the Kiev army, and defensive positions have been built all over the place. But a rebellion is unlikely. Fascist regimes fall if they get sloppy and lose heart or have a civil war. This regime is gaining brutality, and there are no signs that a huge fight between Kiev and Lvov is about to start – with “fight” meaning two rival armies. It is unpredictable at this point. Kiev might start ethnic cleansing in Odessa or Kharkov. This might be a good move on their part.
Ukraine analysis: Russia has a ‘red line’ ( no pun here) and the CIA/State Dept is going to toe it, thus
this:
http://russia-insider.com/en/nationwide-referendum-will-decide-if-ukraine-joins-nato-poroshenko/6022
Now, it would appear that Germany could block this acceptance in NATO .
Only Germany?!!! How about Greece, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Hungary and even Poland now? Not to mention the possibility of Italy and France as well, based on comments by prominent, if not currently in power, individuals?
re: “no hope for peace left”
Be honest. You don’t think anything has changed, do you? Maybe another couple of Minsk agreements, and we can have the same discussion. If Germany wasn’t bothered by Odessa, why are they going to care about a journalist dying? The EU and US both want a weakened Russia. If another 50,000 die, at least it will have the advantage of weakening Russia.
For those interested:
“The bombing of Gernika”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05SjRebjkQE
Russia (Putin) is not going to join the war unless this war is joined by overt NATO countries. Then we will have a classic war, fast and overwhelming, with the utter destruction of everything inside Ukraine that constitutes military value from whatever Western sources—men, material, airfields, ships in Odessa port, command and control buildings and bunkers, tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.
That Russian counter-attack will last 4-8 days. The Ukraine will exist as a memory thereafter.
If a counter-counter strike is launched onto Russian territory, NATO will have a nuclear assault to deal with.
That is precisely how this will play out.
Putin, his inner circle, the MIC of Russia are in this to win and defend the Motherland. They have stated over and over a simple principle of first use.
Generals Hodges and Breedlove and the NATO pedophile and animal abusers (Danish had to pass a law to stop bestiality tourism in Denmark) may want to test the abyss. I am not so sure the industrialists and real estate investors want to see their ill-gotten wealth vaporized in major capitals of NATO countries.
4-8 days of devastation of whatever starts a war with Russia. Not only that, I suspect Putin will warn Lithuania and Poland to keep their troops in their barracks, far from the border with Ukraine.
Putin sent nukes to back up that small effort in Georgia in 2008 according to reports I have read. Imagine what backs up Novorossiya.
A war will continue. It will be manageable by Russian generals and officer corps. It will last as long as the US thinks it can use it to keep sanctions on Russia. Raising the level of war requires an entire new army to fight it. At low levels, it can last a long time. Throwing an all out war at Novorossiya shortens the war quickly. 100,000-200,000 Ukies is a target rich environment. Without air dominance, it is unlikely such a war would last two weeks.
There simply is no tactic or strategic scheme that works with the order of battle and the lines of defense and logistical distances present. The Voentorg from Russia is like the Ho Chi Minh trail. The US never could stop it, interdict it or limit it.
This isn’t Libya, or Iraq with tin horn dictators. This is Russia with Putin, Shoigu, et al.
Red Ryder, I don’t believe Russia would just respond tit-for-tat, that is keep a counterattack confined to the Ukraine. They can’t afford to do it because the U.S. led NATO will ultimately escalate with its own assault on the western border of the Russian Federation and try an manage the war as a regional conflict in Eastern Europe.
A measured response to U.S. aggression is too weak and allows Washington time to ramp up their military and political strength while continuing to manipulate the NATO European member countries. Their plan is to wear Russia down on multiple fronts (militarily, economically, psychologically, etc.). They will not stop until they make Putin and his government surrender to their will.
Russia has to commit to full scale hemispherical war and punish the U.S. severely. They have to execute a direct attack on the American continent with everything they have in their nuclear arsenal. The U.S. will not expect this reaction from Russia and they are definitely not prepared to weather such horrific destruction. They must do this to annihilate the war making ability of the Pentagon and force the U.S. to sue for peace. This is the only way to end the elitists global agenda of superiority over all sovereign nations of the planet.
Once Europe sees the devastation on U.S. soil they will withdraw from NATO immediately so as not to be the next target. Russia has to “jump over” Europe and go directly to the U.S. homeland; it is the only way to prevent domination of the Russian people and the rest of the world.
“Red Ryder, I don’t believe Russia would just respond tit-for-tat, that is keep a counterattack confined to the Ukraine”,
Exactly my own opinion, good post and couldn’t have put it better myself. When confronted by a snarling pack of hyenas you take out the obvious leader of the pack.
Seriously? A nuclear first strike on North American population centers? That’s not even armchair strategizing…. are you drunk?
NATO is not looking for a shooting war here – the NATO generals are first and foremost salesmen for the MIC and their short term order of business is to get the defence budgets of NATO members up to 2% of GNP. Longer term: Russia regime change, removing Putin and anyone else who is intelligent and/or impervious to bribery.
No, I am not inebriated, I am extremely serious.
The primary targets will be U.S. military bases and support infrastructures such as centers of finance and hydroelectric power installations on the eastern seaboard. Washington, DC (Pentagon), Norfolk, Va (naval base), San Diego, Ca (naval base), other deep water harbor ports capable of berthing large naval warships and submarines, Wall Street in Manhattan and megawatt storage plants such as the Bath County facility located in Virgina will be destroyed.
NATO and now Poroshenko’s autocratic government is the west’s proxy puppet and will keep pushing the Russian Federation with measured military force in the Ukrainian regions of contention. They are at this time staging heavy offensive weapons including tactical nuclear weapons to be used when authorized by the U.S. to try and intimidate Putin’s government.
This will not work. If US-NATO and their Ukrainian lapdog attack at the Russian border what I have written will happen. The Russian military will convince Putin that only a massive retaliatory strike on the American continent will stop the fascists from overwhelming Eastern Europe.
It is the only logical path left to end the elitists’ plan to conquer Russia and then on to China; the last country capable of effectively opposing the U.S. militarily and economically.
“Having a war in Europe on a regular basis has always been the linchpin of British foreign policy”
Are you sure? The period between Napoleon and World War I was characterized by very few wars. Just as the Americans in the 1950s and 1960s the British empire was happy to see the rest of Europe develop – knowing that Britain would stay a few steps ahead for the foreseeable time. Expansionist politicians focused on the colonies.
If I would have to indicate a similarity between imperial Britain and the present US it is that the political aims become detached from reality. Britain was obsessed with gathering colonies – and it lost sight that most of them didn’t bring any benefit to the country. The US nowadays is obsessed with squashing any country that shows “resistance”. But again there is no analysis whether it really benefits the US.
crimea was was caused by the english parasites -not only that in period 1840s the whole caucus was troubled because of english parasite spieswoking for dstablisatiuon of russai-thesame russia which suffered the wrath of napolean for the sake of english traders!
Napoleon’s attack on Russia plotted by england (to which
Napoleon the Great himself admitted).
What happened was this as admitted by a british author himself who was responsible for all the troubles in the north caucus in 1840s.
When the emperor napoleon was meeting the czar in the river Niemen on a barge , a british spy was hiding inside one of the boat and he heard all the talk which happened between two emperors. And that information was used to malign the Russian czar in front of napoleon who out of insecurity from that false rumour attacked Russia.
Now the same spy was the one who a generation later was working agasint russia in north caucus and was inflaming the Muslims population against the Russians –that was just before the Crimean war. So you see the English bastards have been let go easily by the Russians despite what they have done to the Russia.one thing more-who so ever is an ally of the English they English back stab them in 25 years alter without fail.
William Napier writes: “In 1811 the Emperor’s power over the continent, as far as the frontier of Russia, was, in fact, absolute; and in France internal prosperity was enjoyed with external glory. But the Emperor of Russia, stimulated by English diplomacy , was plainly in opposition to the ascendency of France .”
Wim Roffel, US actions in squashing resistance isn’t meant to serve the interests of the US. Serves the interests of the criminal oligarchs who now control the govt & whose purpose is a planet-wide oligarchy.
i am afraid that US is preparing for world war. they seems they are aware that russian military doctrine will do harm a lot to US mainland. in US they do some preparations regarding extreme situations , crowd controls, camps, etc. i am little scared because seems that US ruling psychos don’t care. they are suicidal ready to burn Europe “alive” and even own USA. anyway, spreading chaos in M.E. Africa, Asia and elsewhere will disable making allies in future armed conflicts. hundreds of forward bases across globe are not just there to keep eye on USA economic interests. i don’t know for russians. i think they are prepared and naive slogans about partners are just kind of fog for housewifes. i hope that they are contcentrating on situation. Ukraine is irrelevant here. if USA want to promote civilization values they would not do what they do. and what they do, they do for purpose. they are not partners. they are enemy. i would not wait a minute anymore if i am in place of russians. as far they wait , more thousand of dead bodies will emerge.
If Peace is your hope, you will always be disappointed.
There will be no peace for Russian civilization coming from Europe.
There may be peace with Asia. Russia will have peace with Latin America and Africa.
But Europe breeds war and its DNA is Russophobic.
First, there are the rich natural resources coveted by Europe and US.
Second, there is the Orthodox Christianity and the civilization evoked by those values.
Third, Russia is like a gentle, beautiful young woman—ripe for rape if she doesn’t submit. Those steppes look so inviting to the militarists in Europe. It looks so tempting to reach and touch.
Those attributes possessed by Russia across its vast geography incite war not Peace.
But watch the May 9 celebration. You will see the armies of allies of Russia in the parade in Moscow. And all those nations are targets for the Hegemon next.
Peace is out of the question with NATO and the Hegemon.
hopefully there’s no false flag on that day…Poor Putin on the Sochi Olympics days….
This isn’t near over,just round 1 & now just a lull.
There was even the code name floated several days ago of what will be the ground force invasion of yemen next days/weeks.
Saudis’ Regional Standing in Tatters after Humiliating Defeat in Yemen: Iranian MP
April 25, 2015 – 13:28
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Saudi Arabia suffered a humiliating defeat in the military campaign on Yemen after major regional countries left it alone in the war, an Iranian lawmaker said, adding that the failed offensive left Riyadh’s regional position in tatters.
“Saudi Arabia seriously lost its position by taking this wrong measure (of attacking Yemen), and the vigilance of other countries, including Pakistan and Turkey, in refusing to accompany the Saudis forced this country (Saudi Arabia) to go to war alone and leave it disgraced,” Esmail Kowsari, member of the parliament’s national security and
http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/721393
http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/721646
Western Plots Fail to Create Sectarian War in Syria: Minister
April 25, 2015 – 15:38
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Syria’s National Reconciliation Affairs Minister Ali Haidar underlined that the West’s conspiracies to foment sectarian strife in the Arab country have been thwarted.
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“The West sought to turn the Syrian conflict into a sectarian and tribal one but the plan has faced failure,” Haidar said in an interview with the Tasnim News Agency.
This is not really good news–even the most useless maladroit abysmally clueless inept loser, on the longest losing streak of their life, gets a win once in a long while just because of “odds” or chance (luck).
just look at the poles.
or the frenchies.
http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/721840
IRGC Navy Commander Highlights Washington’s Continued Enmity towards Iran
April 25, 2015 – 17:25
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander highlighted Washington’s unrelenting hostility towards Iran since the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stressing that the US has faced defeat in every plot it has hatched against the Islamic Republic since.
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US antagonism towards Iran has been in place over the past 36 years, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi said Saturday, adding that despite a whole host of defeats it has suffered, America cannot end such hostility.
It is for this that lavrov and putin acted agasint hauthis and did nto veto agasint Saudi anglos plot in UNO.
Once a loser, always a loser ;Mr Putin?
http://rt.com/news/253029-isis-yemen-houthi-sanaa/
“As for Lavrov, I find it interesting that everything he gets his hands in seems to backfire on Russia. EVERYTHING!”
Anon, The extremely competent and steady Mr. Lavrov practices diplomacy– not magic. None of us is able to overcome the violent campaigns of the US/UK (yet).
Can someone tell me where on the blog I might find old videos. I am looking for one on… I think it was…. Latvia. It seems to me the title was something like “Resurrection”. I wanted to send it to a friend, but I cannot seem to find it anywhere.
Renaissance with an emphasis on SS.
/renaissance/
Is this the one?
“Such a defeat at the hands of the Russian military will probably provide NATO with a rationale for the next 50 years and completely crush any European desires to rid itself from the EU’s current status of >>voiceless US colony>> “
The above conclusion is utterly untenable for several reasons:
1) NATO is the armed wing of the imperialist Western plutocracy which thrives on the immiseration of the global proletariat. On this basis, NATO has a rock-solid rationale all right since the class interests it serves require permanent repression and coercion. Mindless drivel about “Russian aggression” will be swallowed by the zombified Western masses regardless — one of many aspects of the grovelling 99% and the ruling 1%.
2) If NATO and its fascist hangers-on prevail, our species will not be around 50 years from now. Even without nuclear war, unbridled corporate trashing of the planet will render it utterly uninhabitable appreciably faster. Indeed, a salient feature of the deranged fascist mindset of the West is its absolute, die-hard nihilism. Doesn’t even care about the survival of the proverbal 1%.
3) With regard to the ‘aspirations’ of Europe, the blog post already made the following very correct observation: “Likewise, it appears that any hopes for a weakening of the US and/or European support for the Nazi junta are now dead”. And this pro-Nazi support is not so “voiceless” either as the member states in Eastern Europe make perfectly clear, let alone the Corporate Media.
My own conclusion is that pandering to Western ‘sensibilities’ don’t solve anything whatsoever. Russia would do us a sterling service if she staged coups d’état in the most abominable EU countries: Poland, the Baltic fiefdoms, Romania, Bulgaria.
quote “Always keep in mind that the real goal of the next Ukronazi offensive will not be to defeat Novorussia, but to pull Russia in and then be defeated by Russia. ”
sorry what a delusion.
the coward anglos never attack somebody unless that party has been weakned internally and by outside mercenaries.
if nato is persistent then ti means that anglos are confident that they will have a chance.
with russian history of stupidity of monumental proportion they are right.
How much Putin has messed up is unbelievable.
1.not being prepared for this while celebrating still attacked sochi olympics.
2. not being prepared fro this by begging west not to put antimissile defense or at least say in writing that the missile can attack iran but nto to be used against Russia ! for 5 years Putin begged with backstabbing of Iran too.
3. by not allowing novorussia to be taken in russia or at least by not recognizing the illegitimate american regime in Ukraine.
4. by not objecting the taking away of black box by the english parasites the most vile and persistent enemy of Russia.
5. not making issue as to why the english liars held ontot balck box for 7 weeks without saying anything-contrast the result from blackbox of german airline withon one week.
6. always refusing to support Iran and Syria with s-300 delivery on one pretext or another.
7. despite the hot war in way the delusion of Russia to talk about how to avert the cold war.
8. knowing all the plots ,instead of defeating west and its proxies in middle east and elsewhere-help the west in all UNO resolutions.
9. helping the west by blaming only Houthis and stopping supply to Hauthis-while the need of hour was to supply to hauthis to kill as many British and american troops and agents as quickly as possible-but Russia acted opposite to that.
We heard you the first time, anonymous. Next time you post, try coming up with something new to say.
“Instructors from Canada have arrived to train Ukrainian security officers …”
The parallel between this and the beginning of the US involvement in Viet Nam is striking.
I agree, and I don’t think it’s any different this time around, frankly. The US is being controlled by people who will use it up and then throw it away, so no element of self-preservation needs to come into US thinking. The same old tactics and the same old strategic blunders, all seem to be just fine with the powers that be. That’s why I think this actually could go the way of Vietnam for the US. Just one of several possible scenarios of course.
It reminds me of what I’ve always heard, that traders in the stock market make money on the way up and the way down, and it doesn’t matter to them which way it’s going. Wars and market trading, all part of the same thing somehow.
quote with change “Having a war in Europe on a regular basis has always been the linchpin of British foreign policy and this “tradition” has been fully passed on to the US “successor empire”-which is a stooge of the still slimy British parasite empire (which immensely benefited from both WWI and WWII). What the British want of Americans is plainly simple: a major war in Europe, but also one contained to Europe.”
corrected in my humble opinion.
that is why the source of this consistent euroepan war must be destroyed -at the centre and it is not washington.
once that centre is finished the war will be finished within a week.
Seems this character who supposedly accidentally & kharmically got his just reward by the Droner-In-Chief a few months ago in Pak is just another ‘jackal’, with a concocted BS smokescreen story as cover, & is still undead somewhere.
The whole incident itself likely didn’t even happen, because who is officially counting/documenting any of these drone strikes?
https://willyloman.wordpress.com/2015/04/25/warren-weinstein-was-not-an-aid-worker-he-worked-for-the-cia-through-usaid-on-behalf-of-big-business/
So it would seem Mr. Weinstein was never a humanitarian aid worker as he is being portrayed.
More likely, he helped a pro-Western dictator in Togo maintain his brutal reign by creating lists of leftists and opposition figures to be removed and then he moved over to Pakistan to help a Harvard based company neoliberalize the nation on behalf of the same Big Business interests the CIA has been supporting since their inception.
And remember, by their own admission and the fact that people like Elliot Abrams knew him back in the day, Warren Weinstein wasn’t a small player in these projects. He headed the neoliberalizing program in Pakistan for J.E. Austin Associates just as he did in Togo for USAID (CIA)
Saker,
What the US may want is war?
In Europe?
I think they want Russia to roll against some Eastern European forces, but the Hegemon does not want a war with Russia to touch Western Europe. And certainly, those vassals don’t want war anywhere near them.
The goal was to wage a war inside and upon Russia. They thought the militia would be pushed back into Russia long ago.
They have no idea how to get past the air defenses in order to bomb Russia into submission.
Now, they have a war zone they can pound some more, even attempt thrusts with 100 tanks and eight thousand men. But without air cover for the Ukies, Russian defenses sent to the militia will tear apart these tactics.
Poke, poke, poke the Bear. That is the war.
It will continue because it is not very expensive. With their death squads and killer battalions bankrolled from oligarchs and criminals including Saudi and Israeli sources, havoc is on the agenda for a long time.
Even if the Ukies had ten thousand Western elite fighters with them, it would not change the facts on the ground. Those NATO country troops need air support to fight.
I suspect that if these western trainers begin to make a difference, Kadyrov’s elite group will volunteer to reverse the offensive. And how hard would it be to ask for volunteers from among contracted Russian troops if NATO trainers were 50 miles from home?
The border, right now, belongs to Putin. He took it from Ukraine in the Minsk 2 agreement. So, wherever the front line of Novorossiya is, for all intents and purposes, that’s the Russian border.
25 truck convoys of aid for those folks sent by Putin. There’s a rail line open right into Donetsk from Russia now, isn’t there? Lots of connective tissue, not just the mystic Voentorg.
Poke, poke, poke the Bear.
We will see a lot of better trained and better equipped Ukies, along with some SOF from NATO, die in Donbass. The Ukies are facing an opponent that has no fear, as their opponent’s President and leader said. That Novorossiyan soil is Russian. Always has been, always will be.
Hi Larchmont !! Great post sir….thanks !
“… the Hegemon does not want a war with Russia to touch Western Europe. And certainly, those vassals don’t want war anywhere near them.”
I don’t see a big war (Russia is too strong) but lots of your typical CIA shock & awe bullshit. The USA has become so weak financially, the only way for them to remain the “tallest” is by “shortening” everybody around them. They need to soften-up Russia and Europe simultaneously.
The biggest US-Army base in the world, the nation state formerly known as the Ukraine, serves both functions:
1) keep Russia busy “wasting” its resources, talents and money on the Ukraine situation.
2) keep Europe busy with an endless stream of target assassinations, Charlie-Hebdos, school shootings, etc. by Ukraine-trained “Nazi-Jihadis”. Plus a steady flow of drugs, computer viruses, Ukrainian prostitutes, Ukrsanto food and soon millions of refugees.
And yes, in the end, it all we fail gloriously!
Open letter to my friends:
I. The essential observation of the Saker is indisputable. Imperialist war against Russia, and (by translation) against anyone opposed to the Anglo/American/Zionist Oligarchs, is “inevitable.”
Indeed, the war against the Russian nation, directed through Georgia, and more strongly through the Ukraine, is, and has been on for several years. Increasingly, the puppet governments of Europe are the staging grounds for the aggression.
1. The question considered by the Saker and the commentors is: how much worse can this conflict get?
2. Much of the Middle East and Africa, specially North Africa, has already been laid waste.
3. The Anglo/American/Zionist oligarchs are increasingly motivated to accomplish their uni-polar world empire. What else have Oligarchs ever wanted?
4. This World Empire has been and will continue to be built on the foundation of Economic slavery and Moral depravity.
II. A Key Point – never to be forgotten, is that this sad and dangerous state of decline into Barbarism, is not our fault. It is not Vladimir Putin’s, and even less our fault.
1. There is nothing “We The People” could have done to avoid the decline of Civilization, specially since World War II, and in America, since November 22, 1963.
2. Russian President Vladimir Putin, and other Russian leaders, and their citizens, and their Media outlets have put up the best fight in the long history of Russia. Could they have dotted the
i-sss a bit closer? Quién sabe?
3. History is what it is, a sad compilation of brutality and failures interspaced with outstanding acts of courage. What the Saker has wrought with this truly amazing website is nothing short of miraculous. Mr. Saker: You can send me that $20, to my new address.
I fear to compliment anyone too strongly for fear of bringing the attention of “The Man” upon them.
4. Edward Snowden, Assange, Manning, Ron Paul, Kucinich, Ralph Nader, Joan Baez, the Partisan Militia of Novorossiya, Sorel, Dieudonné, so many others, keep a bunk in the Camp
warm for me.
5. Resistance, VISION, keep the high-road toward Democratic Republics, and all other demcratically organized societies open (they are our Yellow Brick Road).
We don’t have to become like them to prevail. We just have to keep the powder dry.
For the Democratic Republics! Here and There!
IMAGINE
dear Peter Antonsen…well, during the years after WW1 Rudolf Steiner gave many lectures warning the ministries of Europe about this coming oligarch take-over..and he was ignored…now 100 years later we the people reap what those ministries…the aristocracies of Europe..that were not corrupt yet, but lazy….did.
From a UK perspective I don’t think the politicians in the US or Europe (in particular in the UK) want a new Cold War, they want a hot one. They have somehow managed to convince themselves that they can win – probably from watching too many Hollywood movies.
I think it is a reaction to many problems, some of which have been discussed before:
1. Economic:
The economies of several of the Western Countries are falling apart. Successive governments have borrowed way too much and promised the world to gullible voters. The wheels are starting to come off and now they need a distraction – and nothing is as good at that as an “existential threat”. After all, who cares if the interest rates/debt/taxes go up? There are more important things to be doing! Like stopping Russian tanks from through the front of Buckingham Palace!
2. Political:
The UK is and always has been separate from Europe. We don’t consider ourselves European and our desire to be part of the EU (what little there was) is rapidly disappearing. We can’t control our borders and it seems that the EU is intent on destroying our culture. I can imagine that the politicians are thinking that if we have a common enemy we will bond with our European brothers and be happy to be part of this failing experiment. The legacy parties in the UK (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats) are also trying to fend off the rise of new parties – mainly UKIP, who want us to have a good defence, but not go around stirring up trouble in other countries, want us to leave the EU. The legacy parties aim to achieve this through uncertainty – after all, in uncertain times, people tend to stick to the familiar.
3. Social:
The UK is under a lot of social strain at the minute, there has been a lot of immigration and the “native” culture is feeling much maligned and ignored by the politicians. The lower educated people are struggling to find and hold jobs, leading to a lot of resentment and unemployment. This is a drain on the economy and leads to social unrest. Maybe its paranoia on my part, but are the ruling class thinking a war would help reduce this unemployment? Or similar to the previous point, we would not have to social divisions from immigration if we all have to club together to fight the outsider?
I’m hopeful that these plans are going to fall through. There is no appetite for a war among the population as a whole. There is an increasing level of contempt for our politicians and our next General Election is in just over 10 days. Lets see what happens. It may just throw a spanner into the works.
Of course, it may not. A depressing number of people still believe everything the MainStream Media tell them…
World War One seems to have been one big Peterloo.
Empire yet again is putting pressure upon your work,Saker. Troll/bot traffic increased here dramatically, again. Although their quality is lacking. As is always the case when only money and/or brainwashing is involved.
Keep up the good work knowing that seeds are sprouting! Thank you for all your work.
I have to agree with this. I was going to make a separate comment about the flood of negativity in this thread – dramatic increase, as you say Dragan.
They just look for an opening don’t they? Guess the war is coming closer, this always seems to happen when real actions are starting to take place.
At my particular location in the world ‘Childrens Services’ can steal children: There is a long history of institutional child abuse in the ‘facilities’ to which these children are deported – it’s no secret, all the information is out there, the problem is that nobody cares.
Similarly the chief executive of the local council has helped himself to about a quarter of a million of public (tax) money, this has been deemed unlawful by the audit office. The police do nothing. Again, this is no big secret, all the information is out there, but nothing gets done about it – because nobody cares.
The local schools hand out tubes of Sodium Fluoride toothpaste to children as young as four. Even in the United States this exact same product must carry a poisons label and the legend: “Keep out of reach of children” – in the UK we just pop it into their school bags, and nobody cares: You point this out to people and they look at you like you should be locked up.
Election time in the UK: Various homes in my neighbourhood are proudly displaying blue conservative party boards/signage etc. David Cameron has violated the Minsk2 agreement by sending British troops to Ukraine…. And people are willing to support this flirting with WWIII? YES – because they are ignorant and unaware, slaves to their television. No doubt some of these people have sons and daughters, but they are also unaware of the National Service Bill that the conservatives have had on the back-burner for some number of years now. They want to see their sons and daughters die for the banksters? NO – but they support this potential scenario, because they are ignorant and unaware. They are ignorant and unaware, beguiled supporters of intervention in Ukraine – because, essentially, they do not care. Reality is another world for them.
Show them a shiney new mobile/internet device – they will care.
Show them the neighbour’s shiney new BMW/Citroen/whatever – they will care, they will want one!
The real world?
Nobody cares about that.
When more of their sons and daughters are dying in a foreign land – they will care, but by then it will be too late.
Shame on the people of the UK.
You can be sure that Russians don’t allow flouride in their drinking water. Flouride is a nazi thing that shuts down the pineal gland and turns you into a zombie. Russians tend to be psychic, and they like it that way. They like to see with their third eye. What the Zionazis really want to destroy is the higher consciousness of the Russian collective soul. This collective soul is the true source of their strength and cohesion, and the military is secondary. The Chinese also have a collective soul with higher consciousness, which is why Russians and Chinese have an affinity for each other. Someday, the Ukrainian people will find their way back to the collective Russian soul where they belong, but it will be a very long and winding painful journey home.
I agree with @Dragan and @ Grieved… good analysis Saker
But… how much more garbage (always an Anonymous) do we have to read here.
To all the anons… get a name or get lost.
Are you talking about “Anonym”? AKA the “Nuke London” guy? Come on, get a sense of humor. Let your hair down a little. He is always amusing. Don’t take it so damn seriously.
@Anonymous 5.17 am
Indeed, I am having a good laugh… my sides ache…
… it is simply hard to follow threads and respond with so many Anons who have no imagination to even think up a name…
Garbage?
Ok Paragraph at a time:
Child-snatching: Fact: Linda Lewis Case/Melanie Shaw Case. These are factual cases. In the Linda Lewis case – child was illegally snatched by “Childrens Services” to this date no-one has been brought to justice. When they came for children – I did not stand up, when they came for my children no-one stood up. Nobody cares!
Theft of Council Tax/Public money: Fact: Mark James, Carmarthenshire – a County of population circa 178,000. A petition was raised against the proposal to give this guy a “Golden Handshake” deal… understandable after his “dodgy” appropriation of public funds (around quarter million) was deemed unlawful by the WAO. The police did nothing. The public did nothing. The petition resulted in about 600 entries. Nobody cares!
Local schools/fluoride: Fact: Contact Ceredigion Local Health Board – ask for drug safety certificates/risk assessments carried out; re:- just handing out potentially lethal doses of Sodium Fluoride to four-year-old kids. Nobody cares!
Election time: People still believe voting makes a difference (re: Mark Twain). Fact: David Cameron has sent troops to Ukraine (read Minsk 2 text). Fact: For the last 2 or 3 years the Conservative Party have been simmering a “National Service” Bill on the back-burner which includes the prospect of military service. Go check.
British soldiers: Fact: swear an allegiance to the Crown – not to the laws or the country(s) of the United Kingdom. The Crown – an illegal corporation that has hi-jacked the constitution and laws (constitutional monarchy) of the United Kingdom.
British soldiers: Fact: Have been sent to: The Falklands (re: Coalite share prices), Iraq, Afghanistan to fight for the corporate. AND Fact: Have already been deployed (as an expeditionary force) to Ukraine.
Care only about “shiney new things”: POV, but check out the school car park/parents awaiting their kids, chatting bubble – “Did you see Corrie last night”.
When more of their sons and daughters are dying: POV I’ve known a number of people, one whose brother burned up on the “Sir Galahad”, who have only taken a real and personal interest in the motives and machinations behind the bankers wars – When It Is Their Loved Ones who have been killed.
Topic: The Sakers thread was entitled – “No Hope For Peace Left”. If nobody cares about the things that directly effect them locally: Government child-napping, or what happens when someone steals their money for e.g. then what hope is there that they will care about their politicians fomenting a major war? In your opinion?
Anonymous: The Sakers website does not require me to imagine an “alias” as you have done – I simply did not fill in the field, I am not required to do so. I thank The Saker for that privilage: HERE, at The Saker, Freedom Of Speech is Still Free.
When those rules change – so will I.
In the meantime – as we say in the UK – why don’t you “do one”? At least until you wise up.
Well said sir.I have noticed the change in the brit persona over the years.they now say that the children using these i-devices are becoming less caring,cold,psycho-killer creatures of the future.Bolger killers spring to mind when I think about kids like that.The roaming gangs,the stamping on heads by the sadist teens,even the household guardsmen are at it off duty.I thank God I don’t have to live day-to-day with all that any more. eX-brit.
Saker, thank you for the roundup of what equipment the Ukies have rec’d so far. I wonder if the un/natural selection you spoke of led everyone w any brains to get out of Dodge. Seems like it should be pretty evident that anyone who fights for Ukraine is fighting for the US empire.
maybe fighting for the US is the next best thing to Coke or Pepsi
There will be a much bigger outcome:
– oil price will go off (gold as well)
– many bubbles (financial, Euro, budget deficits, …) in the western economy will burst (in the beginning (~1950) of the Cold War there have been no bubbles).
All in all economic decline of western countries will speed up and Europe has no other choice, it must buy russian gaz – or collapse.
IMO … the other outcome above is not worse for Russia but for the EU and NA (Northamerica). Russia already does a big deal in arms trading which will even more go off than oil or gold. Especially after a fast and (i’m pretty sure) successful liberation of Malorossia – NOT Galicia! Feed it to Poland, Czech and Hungary, so they calm down a little.
If instead Russia want’s to be acceppted as equal among (western) equals, it will have to liberate NA and UK first – otherwise the westerners won’t accept Russia as a partner, because they are not allowed to. [I’m not sure if liberation of NA is possible at all?]
From this follows, the better option for Russia (as of now, already within the 2nd Cold War) is to liberate Europe from Nazis (in Kiev) again. The earlier the better. Why not to start the liberation on victory day?
BTW, you live freely if you haven’t a reputation (as an equal among equals) to loose: Of course Russia should present the swedish bill about the Baltics at the very same time (550bln$) – or impound (liberate) them (too). I.e. getting rid of foreigners in it’s doorstep. May be not all seats on foreigners journey back to NA are taken, so the Nazis from Kiev will be allowed safe-conduct to NA (only) – if promising to never come back again.
Dear The Saker,
Yes war is inevitable – they were never going to give up – were they?
Russia will not allow itself to be dragged into this proxy war. Kerry and his EU vassels are already going on about sanctions/Minsk agreement again so we know they are ready to do a false flag or attack – again.
However, if they attack Russia direct – woe betide them……
Rgds,
Veritas
Dear Saker/friends :
I m surprised by you Saker that you hoped that there would be PEACE and that too by the WEST. The Greatness of Russia is they are delaying as much as possible because when WAR would take place it would not be the COLD WAR as per the likes of US. It would be the WAR to FINISH. In fact Cold War means continuation of war …
My question to you is when there was piece by the western countries to the rest of the world ? Anyone could reply to this if they have the answer.
I think what we are going to observe the Culmination of the Atrocities by the West and as a result the end of the WEST in many ways. How it would look like I don’t know. The WW2 was not the end rather it was a truce. Moreover, The West kept doing what it has been to the rest of the weak/weaker/weakest countries/people/children/animals/environment/etc. You all know what I mean.
This time all illusions of West are off and their Dracula Face is in front of the cosmos to see. Hence I said before that “THE EVENTUAL WAR IS CERTAIN.” Keep in mind that the westerners never felt this because it was not affecting them and therefore they supported. Hence they have to face the CURSE of MILLIONS and nothing can save them from that. Moreover as some analyst said that We could be envy of the Dead.
OF COURSE in the end “RUSSIA would FINISH the WAR” started by WEST since time immemorial. When I don’t know…
Regds
Sanjay
Sanjay…I always notice that you think the end is in the West…but if there’s a first strike that’s going to be in the East…. A friend sent me an email a few days ago…someone from here at Saker’s and he talked about Asia as being in not such a good place either….
Shock Video: Ukrainian Neo-Nazis Nail Rebel Fighter to Cross, Burn Him Alive
TND Article Spotlight: Paul Joseph Watson:
WARNING: GRAPHIC FOOTAGE.
Shocking video shows Ukrainian neo-nazi militia fighters carrying out an ISIS-style execution during which they nail a separatist rebel to a cross and then burn him alive.
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=464835
aonon…we saw it yesterday…I guess you’re just making the rounds with this horrific scene…thanks anyways…
I doubt there will be much human civilization 50 years from now. So don’t worry about NATO in Europe 50 years from now Saker.
Russia needs to just decide whether to crap or get off the pot. And to forget how Europe perceives anything. Nothing is going to change their perception which is a class perception. That is given and fixed and has been all along and forever more.
A lot will depend on sanity of US ruling class. There is little right now. And the ruling elites around the Pentagon believe the propaganda fed to them and are the dupes of their own tools.
Russia, IMO, should openly send in as many military “advisors” as the Western countries have placed in the Ukraine. They should see what kind of response that brings? Just like the US is incrementally building the war, so should the Russian response be comparable.
Is it really fair or moral to ask 100,000 more people to sacrifice their lives in brutal and unimaginable Nazi death squad attacks for an entity called “Russia” or Novorossiya? Maybe the time has arrived for a vigorous and crushing defensive action once the Kiev US puppet regime and the Pentagon and NATO decide to act.
It is apparent that the combined Novorussian forces of Lugansk and Donetsk in 2015 are better prepared to fight a proxy war for Russia against the USA-assisted Ukrainians, than the North Vietnamese were in 1965 to fight against the Americans and South Vietnamese.
The war to separate the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine from the west can be won without direct Russian involvement, provided that only native Ukrainians are doing the fighting. It will be messy and it will be long fought. But it is within Russia’s capabilities to sustain the separatist forces and to increase their military capabilities up to the point where offensive operations to take Kharkov, Dnepro-Petrovsk, and Odessa can be managed successfully.
There are irreconcilable differences between the East and West of Ukraine. There will be no peace until they are effectively separated. But there will be a prolonged struggle before that line of separation will be discovered and eventually be recognized.
The point is, as Zakharchenko’s invitation reveals, Russia does not want to “conquer” the Ukraine. Neither will it recognise Donbass independence or annex it, as it did the Crimea. The plan is for the rest of the Ukraine to rise up and to join the Donbass to create a new Ukraine under Donbass leadership, perhaps without Polish Galicia and the bits that Stalin took from Hungary and Romania. Without the ignorant, incompetent, corrupt, Galician barbarians, and without the oligarchs, the Ukraine could thrive, just as Belarus has under Lukashenko. Whatever his faults, Lukashenko never allowed a corrupt oligarchy to create the chaos that occurred in Russia under Yeltsin, and which still bedevils the Ukraine. The Ukraine is a naturally rich country that only requires good and honest management by its own people (the genuine ones who speak Russian or Surzhyk, not the phoney wannabes from Galicia, who speak a crude, peasant patois of Polish, which the Poles chose out of snobbery to label “Ukrainian”), and not as a colony of either west or east.
People can’t rise up against a fascist dictatorship without major outside help or an internal power struggle. Both of those conditions are lacking. Russia has not helped in a major way any rebellions in Kharkov or Odessa, and there is no real struggle in Kiev, just one oligarch or group controlled by the US angry with another oligarch or group controlled by the US. This might change one day, but it is not visible at the moment.
This. Unfortunately the Ukraine civil war will only end when the most fanatical nationalists of Lviv start choking on the number of body bags coming back home from the front — the exact opposite of what Gen Robert H. Scales said. In this sense the Pentagon, State Department and Kiev regime’s combined efforts to keep an almost totally compliant Western MSM (with the exception of the BND leak to the FAZ about 50,000 deaths) on board with not reporting anything close to the truth about Kiev’s (14,500+ KIA) body count or the number of dead civilians has been all too successful. But it’s only sustainable so long as the battles are contained and the Ukrainian army is not forced into yet another humiliating encirclement. For Poroshenko and the SBU terror regime, things are going relatively well now.
They can probably stomp out the #CoalMaidan with ease, MSM are giving almost zero coverage to any organized opposition within rump Ukraine itself to the regime. However, further hyperinflation of the hyrvnia, another Debaltsevo sized defeat, and rolling brownouts this summer if Moscow decides to cut off the gas and the reshipments of Donbass coal could create a cascade of problems even the presstitutes of the West and the Kyiv Post/Army psyops mission on the ground in Kiev won’t be able to spin away.
The only other potential game changer I can think of is someone like Glenn Greenwald reporting the ugly truth about dead Polish mercs or even American advisers coming home in body bags from Donbass after the next failed Kiev offensive. And yes the UAF’s summer campaign is already doomed, the only question is how many will die on both sides after the initial spin about Ukraine’s ‘heroic’ advance melts away into yet another cauldron. The NAF is going to take some casualties this summer, hopefully they will lightly hold the lines where needed and practice defense in depth, letting the Ukrowehrmacht advance into the open kill zones where ATGMs and arty/rockets can inflict their toll rather than the other way around.
The ZPC/NWO needs neverending war to stay in power at home. And they also need that war to be taken to Russia and China in order to weaken them and prevent an Eurasian union becoming a rival source of geopolitical power. With that in mind, the ZPC/NWO will continue to fuel conflicts around the world to weaken and destroy those states refusing to submit.
Thanks for the sitrep.
Putin is working hard to gain the most precious commodity of all, Time.
Time to pull military, political and economic alliances together (China, BRICs, SCO, etc).
Time to set up the Russian economy to withstand total sanctions by the west and the end of gas sales to the EU.
Time to get Russian money out of the west before it is confiscated.
Time to build up the Russian military.
Time to work out the best poltical/military strategy for when the worst happens.
Time for the US, EU and NATO to weaken further economically.
Time to foster/support splits withing the EU.
Time for Kiev to further decline fall further into chaos.
Time to penetrate/bribe/etc Kiev more fully and (maybe) foster a counter revolution or at least a greater level of weakening chaos.
Time to gain deeper intelligence on Kiev, the US and NATO.
Time for the US and its allies (NATO, Saudi Arabia, etc) to further overstretch and weaken themselves militarily with brush wars all over the place.
I think he knows fully the inevitability of all this and is working to gain time to stack the deck on Russia’s side as much as possible for when the confrontation happens. Everything he has done to date (except Crimea which was a ‘must do’ for Russia) has been consistent with this poltical/economic/military strategy.
Right on Lisa. Best comment of them all.
Yes, most likely correct!
Why rush things to your disadvantage?
This is such a riot. The Kiev regime keeps consolidating its power and its terror apparatus with lavish help from Sam and family. The slightest suspicion of dissenting THOUGHTS (let alone speech) lands you in jail or out of a job or worse. Advisors keep coming to prop up the spook regime. NATO keeps coming. The national assets are being put up for sale at bottom prices. Etcetera etcetera.
But Russia is playing “for time” and the expectation is that people are going to “rise up” and “join the Donbass”. I don’t know how many times I’ve read similar kinds of nonsense. Nobody is going to rise up. Wake up. Maidan was not a spontaneous uprising. No such uprisings are possible in a terror regime of that nature once its security apparatus has gotten a firm grip on power. The best that people can hope for is to leave. Ukraind will export people and put itself up for sale. Stop dreaming.
Gloomy indeed my dear Saker,gloomy but true sadly .
What is the URL to find this article in Russian language?
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2156417.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2156799.html
Ima li ijedan Crnogorac na ovomr blogu pobogu osiom mene ?
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41686.htm Pepe’s newest on the silk road. Useful to read w a map:
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-284-attacks-on-stanitsa-luganskaya-continue/ Scroll down to Click & Dial Very Interactive map. Zoom from continents sometimes all the way down to buildings.
Thanks for the link to Escobar’s latest.
Always makes me feel optimistic about the future reading his articles.
Once again,and frankly, it will be “forever” as we know it.The only question is when and how do we destroy the junta.That is the “only” way to end this war and bring freedom to Ukraine,and security to Russia.All these “Minsk” agreements are worthless.Only war will destroy the junta.And that is just truly the “bottom line”.Some of us have said that from day one,and now its becoming plain to everybody.The Empire has a plan to spread war and chaos to Russia.That is how they operate throughout the world.It is their ideology for controlling the world.They have no intention of changing that.Anyone challenging the Empire needs to understand that.If you think it will be different you are seriously mistaken.As long as they can hope to win they will keep it going.It works for them in the ME,now they see it can work in Europe.Only by taking their bases away will stop it.Destroy the junta (hopefully by the Novorossians and other pro-Russian forces) and don’t stop until they are destroyed.Its the same in the ME,different story,same villains.Only by destroying the Western terror machine can the world be safe from them.Its ironic that you hear Western military people talking about Russia conducting a “hybrid war” in Ukraine. A hybrid war is what the Empire has conducted for years around the World. Its the picture imagine of a “hybrid war”.Destabilization,and subversion of societies in countries,the use of terror groups,is all the trade mark of the US.Counting on only an economic collapse to defeat them is to seriously misunderstand the World.It certainly has a big part to play.But no time in history has it alone done the trick.Without a combo punch of economy and military power we have no ability to overcome the Empire.If they win in Ukraine they have a base for solid subversion against Russia.And in the long run we will have to fight them anyway.And at a time it could be more disadvantageous for us.The time to defeat them is now while they are weaker,than when they will be better equipped and with a command structure firmly in place.
Actually, a hybrid war is what might actually work. Things like a destabilization campaign in Kiev. If the electrical grid went down in a key city, a lot of troops would be taken off the front. If a couple of key bridges were removed, it would inconvenience commerce. And if some of the Ukrainian TV channels were off the air, it would help to get the people out of their trance.
I’ve always called for resistance sabotage throughout Banderastan. That isn’t really what the Empire means by “Hybrid War”.But I’m old school.And I remember hearing of how the Soviet Resistance (Partisans) operated during WW2.And that is exactly what should be happening throughout Banderastan right now.A short while ago the nazis in Banderastan destroyed a monument to a resistance hero from WW2, Nikolai Ivanovich Kuznetsov. Among many daring deeds of valor during the war,he is credited with personally killing 6 high-ranking nazi officials and involved in the assassination or seizing of 18 others.While posing as a German Military officer.That is the model of a resistance operative that should be active in Banderastan today.He was hated by the Bandera,and died during the Liberation of Ukraine period fighting UPA.After this war,besides the rebuilding of his monument.I’m hoping the NAF will have many new Kuznetsov’s of their own to erect monuments for.
Paul11….Actually all East Ukraine birdges were bombed out in the beginning of 2014, as well as all hospitals, meeting places, schools, gynasiums, game stadiums, airports, train stations, and town centers. Then water plants, cement factories, music schools and theaters, garbage management places. The factories of any and all kinds. Where were you?
Hi Saker, great analysis as always….I like the last two paragraphs the best.
I agree mostly with your analysis Saker, and as you, I’m quite pessimistic for the coming months.
Besides that, I think that the original plan (to place ABM defense systems at the frontier with the RF) of some factions in the western power circles as far as we can know is now moribund or dead, essentially due to the heroic resistance of the little people of the Donbass. Ukraine’s economy is dying, people are impoverished to the extreme, a social explosion could be looming
What we are witnessing, now, is somewhat a “plan B”, probably :
1. Ukraine must wage a war to the end with Donbass and eventually Russia.
2. This war will likely be lost.
3. Sanctions against Russia will be renewed indefinitely.
4. Russia will have the burden to reconstruct most of Ukraine, and this will slow the development of Russia.
5. If President Putin does nothing to avoid the genocide of ethnic Russian people, it will be stripped from power and replaced.
Russian intervention is now even more probable than last spring because the country is nearly READY for War, if needed. Incidentally, this potential intervention could be the only mean to save Ukraine from total disintegration.
In effect, Russian army, if necessary, could have defeated quite easily Kiev’s regime forces last spring, but, at this time, the country was far less prepared than now (necessity to pivot to the east, to build a SWIFT replacement, to secure its assets, to secure the support of other big countries).
From a Russian point of view, we could have :
1. Destroy the military “might” of the current regime in Kiev,
2. Put a friendly government at the helm of Ukraine and federalize the country,
3. Each region choose to remain in a federalized Ukraine, to be independent, to be annexed to Russian Federation,
4. Try to rebuild links with some states of Europe.
But, in the end, the true wealth of a country is its people : people of Ukraine, if well governed is very capable to jump from the eighties to 21 century in one generation and be prosperous again. The only conditions are peace and not too corrupt officials.
Apparrently the “civilized” EU is afraid of a motorbike trip (of the club the NIght Wolves) that should reach Berlin from Moscow in memory of the Victory over nazi-Germany. Poland is said to block entrance of the motorbikers and also Germany seems to do the same. All that show how they are afraid of the people and ridiculous.
Why not if motorbikers from all EU countries went to Berlin to show they are not afraid of them with the St. George ribbon on their jackets?
Little petty sissies. Probably stand on a chair if they see a mouse. But remember that it’s only the govts that are afraid of the bikers– afraid to be embarassed when the people welcome them.
a pipeline to carry gas to europe from qatar was stopped by russia starting a civil war in syria.isis is helping secure the pipeline while syria is fighting to prevent it
the pipeline was meant to replace russian gas that was supplied through the ukraine
in retaliation the ukraine has been attacked and the west is now taking the war to a new level by completely cutting off russian gas supplies to europe
putin has no more options in that area.china will not side with russia but instead will use the war to leverage a better deal on wheat supplies and control of farm land in ukraine
russia is one country that will benefit from global warming as more land will become productive and water is bountiful.that potential should be pursued instead of a gas war
putin should simply pull back and let qatar supply europe,drop support of assad but keep his option open to close down the pipeline in the future
population control must move beyond war due to the nature of modern weaponary.this planet will not survive an allout nuclear war
enforced medical intervention either through vaccines that sterililze large parts of the population or viruses that make humans infertile is the only way forward
@McCohen:
I am against euthanasia, but I’d make an exception in your case..
Eimar CLark:
Good one….Hahahahaha!!!!!
About the Gazprom – European Union dispute:
The legal ground on which any procedure could be started [by the EU] against Gazprom is extremely shaky. Reading the comments made by the Commissioner, the move looks more like a personal promotional strategy than a case based on solid legal texts.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/five-views-on-ecs-case-against-gazprom-any-repercussions-23377
Russian territory is important and not an inch will be surrendered. Tactical nukes must be used on all invaders. Putin is wise not to invade Ukraine, it would give NATO and the US a reason to fully colonize Europe. But a buffer zone is needed and ultimate support should be given to the separatists.
Ukraine analytical SITREP: Very good analysis of the latest in Ukraine-NATO shenanigans:
http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine-partnering-nato-surprise-no-one/6067
I still wonder what the Europeans will do as this escalates. Vietnam redux in Europe? I just do not think so.
I am disgusted that the Canadian government has become involved in the US-led war in the Ukraine and that the two major opposition parties in the House of Commons lend their support to this US-led adventure. Our country continues to lose respect from more and more people around the world as the Canadian government, with support of the opposition parties, continues play its role as a stooge for the US. Here in Canada, it’s all about the large Ukrainian/Canadian voting block.
So, if you believe that the goal is not to defeat Novorossiya but to draw Russia in and have the Junta be defeated by Russia, and that is a bad thing, than where does this leave Novorossiya? I suppose with this philosophy, they might as well give up rather than allow what you believe to be the US’s attempts to restart the cold war succeed. Well, I have news for you- it already has! There is already a new cold war, the EU is already a US vassal state, and the US totally controls Kiev. Do you want to lose one of the last pieces of the Russian world (Donbass) to the ‘west’ just because you are afraid of something that has already happened? I believe it’s best to rescue what little can be saved of Russian pride, honor, dignity and keep NATO OFF its direct border by protecting Donbass. While US/EU may swear Ukraine will never join NATO, for all intents and purposes, it already has, because it is getting the same member benefits! As for those of you who follow the Dugin theory of “Lisbon to Vladivostok”, and justify Putin’s dumping of Novorossiya for this ‘greater plan’, PLEASE explain to me how a nation who is too afraid of the US/EU bogeyman to even save the lives of ethnic Russians in Donbass and keep them from being forced to submit to the Nazi regime ever going to achieve such a lofty goal? It’s time to do what is right and save the DRP and LPR! Shamefully, if this had been done last summer, it would all be over by now, and we wouldn’t have to be worrying about any US military in Ukraine being a threat to Novorossiya.
Annie, the world situation is very different now from 1948. The US held all the cards in the capitalist world then, with huge stocks of gold and its industrial base intact while that of the rest ot the world was in tatters. The dollar was king and the US had a huge reservoir of good will from the carefully spun story (or rather the lie) that the US had led the fight against fascism and Naziism.
The situation today is that the rule of the dollar is fading fast, the entire world stands on the brink of an unprecedented financial collapse, the CIA’s “Evil Empire” has been massively exposed and is overwhelmingly opposed by the common people everywhere, and the blood-suckers at the top of the food chain are starting to turn on each other.
Russia too will suffer severely from the coming financial collapse, but due to the much lower national debt and the remnants of a state sector in production it is far better prepared to weather the storm than most, an anchor of stability to which other nations trying to escape the dying Empire will try to tie onto.
So don’t be panicked by surface appearances. Putin has good reason to believe time is on Russia’s side, and the defenders of Novorossiya to trust the current stalemate is not forever.
First,you all should understand one thing well maybe two.
NATO does not need a pretext.It already has one.Done deal
Second,West needs no pretext eather,Cold War is on and has been since Putin became president the first time.
It doesn’t mater weather Russia obliterates Ukraine or not nothing will change.
It is all about US protecting the dollar.Remember what happened to Sadam and Kadafy when they wanted to trade outside dollar.Same awaits Russia.
Remember the old saying.Best defence is good offence.
What west doesn’t expect.For Rusia to attack.Screw international rules.West doesn’t abide by them so why should Russia.
First,obliterate the bases in Germany and every other US base around Russia simultaneously without nukes.Be quick and turough.
Than sit back and wait to see if west wants a nuclear war.Than open diplomatic chanels and ask if they want to trade.Only Russia can save Europe people from US who is today’s Hitler Germany.
Russia can’t reason with them. Time for talk is over.
History does repeat its self.
You just made Russia’s point: it is the US and UK/EU that is Hitler; invading sovereign countries left and right from Iraq to Libya, etc. The Russians learned their lesson from Afghanistan. That was their last disastrous foreign adventure. If they are the only superpower to uphold international law, then so be it. Somebody has to. And they are winning hearts and minds all over the world for their principled stance. They don’t want to emulate Hitler, like western countries apparently do – with regularity.
Wars have been inevitable since the dawn of time…Many will die so few can survive. Resources depleting and populations booming exponentially, have done in many cultures who refuse to obey simple rules nature demands. Well worth listening to lecture series on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsPMaGdg_38&list=PLljtcreHOleGRhO_8E8g_Ka_tTlPFK-k2
Saker, I was struck by your comment about how the Ukraine situation is reminding you more and more of Korea. By that I assume you mean Korea 1950? I think about that parallel all the time.
I know about that first from having read I F Stone’s Hidden History of the Korean War (never widely available), and from more recent reports such as the public inquiry into the open US role in the murder, as the South Korean lines broke and the rout began, of several hundred thousand South Korean leaders, activists and former resistance fighters against the Japanese.
I also remember seeing a story about a decade ago based on Soviet archives about Kim Il Sung asking Stalin some 20 times for the Soviets’ blessings for the People’s Republic to attack South Korea and try to take it, until Stalin finally relented. (No one that I have seen has fully fleshed out what a historic global catastrophe that was.) I’m sure the details of that story combined with what was actually going on in Korea then would be fascinating.
It would not surprise me if many of your readers don’t know enough about the history of the Korean War to really understand the analogy you are seeing. It would be a service if you could publish one or two recent articles or reviews on the subject, followed by your reflections.
Keep up the good fight!
Depressing, but I think we see the now the pattern that will be repeated for the duration of this conflict and that there will be little chance of an end in sight.
Russia will not be drawn in directly, unless NATO itself launches the attack on Novorossia. Neither will Russia annex the Eastern territories, as it still wants to topple the Junta from the whole state.
Simply put it means long periods of lengthy and uneasy cease fire, punctuated by short and vicious bouts of out all conflict, during which Novorossiya will accrue ever more territory and inflict heavy damage on the Ukrainian forces.
Time is Russia ally. The US are indeed propping the Ukrainian State up, but this is costly and they are only doing it to make Russia act overtly. They also need this to happen quickly. The situation is becoming more volatile and the cost escalating. The US of course does not care what happens after they get what they want, the question is whether they will be prepared to go the distance and pay the price necessary to get it.
Russia will let this take as long as it needs to achieve as time means pain for their enemies and it becomes more difficult to proclaim the Russian bogeyman, when the Russian is not doing all that much.
It does seem as though the next bout of fighting is coming. This time it seems that Mariupol is the priority; mainly to secure the land route through to Crimea and of course to ensure that the Sea of Azov remains a Russian Lake.
Beyond that I doubt if there is much appetite to simply slug it out head on over the Donetsk Hinterland. I rather suspect a whole new front in the rear and would not be surprised by a new rising in Kharkov and the birth of a third Peoples Republic.
Novorussia is going to get hammered in the war, but I think they will win it. The army Kiev sends into Novorussia, will be demoralized to start out with. Many have fled to avoid conscription. Most everybody must know just how the soldiers in the earlier invasion were betrayed. I don’t think even the Nazis are in love with the regime, so there will be jostling for power within it. The economy is collapsing so fast that the regime can’t be popular with anyone. Since they are the invaders they will have to keep supply lines open through a landscape of desperate civilians. That would take a kind of organization they obviously do not have, and will not, since everyone is out for himself. Most likely the supplies will be plundered along the way.
By the way, I think Putin knows the beast is mortally wounded and just wants to prevent a final nuclear death throes that involves Russia.
I have written a supporting article here:
http://foreignaffairsoz.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/us-policy-shift-arming-ukraine.html
The Atlantic Council, an organization that reflects US policy intentions at the highest level, has published a manifesto calling for the US Congress to provide lethal weapons and up to $1 billion a year in military assistance to Ukraine.
They back a fact-finding report prepared by General Wes Clark and a former strategy adviser to Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger named Dr. Phillip Karber who have come back from Ukraine with the conclusion that Russian military forces are everywhere and that arming the Kiev government with offensive weapons such as TOW missiles and Abrams tanks is the only solution.
The Clark-Karber Report and The Atlantic Council manifesto are probably sufficient to sway Congress to provide lethal military aid to the Kiev government, with a high probability of a major NATO-Russia confrontation to follow.
The Atlantic Council publicly endorses the views of Phillip Karber.
The signs are that the US political movers and shakers have decided to bring on a major confrontation with Russia over Ukraine confident of a sympathetic (and propagandized) media coverage. Much of this is a reprise of the Serbian war tactics in the 1990s. Western MSM is already on board, overloaded with propaganda. I don’t where this will finish but US-supplied TOW missiles and tanks can only be seen as overt war.
Cold War I started in Europe, but soon after — in 1949 — a socially run-down China was lost to the West and — unbelievably, to the American public opinion — the Eurasian landmass turned into a red fortress. This was the result of an initial miscalculation. Only in 1950 the West realized that the industrial capacity of the Soviet Union not only survived the nazi onslaught, but was able to develop and turn into a huge strategic asset. Many Western people hold still a good motive to snub the commemoration of Victory Day. For it is those who engeneered a prolonged, mutually destructive conflict in WWII’s Eastern Front, that saw Victory Day writing the sentence “Defeat!” over their strategic dreams.
Soon after, Russia’s new but still convalescing ally — China — surprisingly showed to be a good match for MacArthur’s expeditionary army. And the US monopoly on nuclear weapons was brief and, furthermore, never saw any use in the cold war conflict.
If they go for Cold War II, they would (again) be miscalculating. Vassal Western Europe will not hold its ground. It will continue to spiral down economically, now attacked in two fronts by both economic isolation from Eurasia and by TTIP. Note that TTIP will function like a reverse-Marshall Plan: capital will fly across the Atlantic, from Europe to the USA. Europe will turn into a social ruin and — in a scenario of political collapse of the EU and NATO institutions, somewhat similar to 1930’s collapse of the imperial government, in China — can (unexpectedly, for the elite) turn into a US strategic loss.
thank you for you astute analysis. It’s all about revenue-streams, coated in militarims, but also reinforcing the “civilian” safety-industrial paradigm (as a non coincidental synergy effect). These are both dominated by US-interest. This is indeed where all the tax money is going to and the “military spending” that is being sold to the public via immense propaganda.
American Taxpayers lining the pockets of high tech companies (that actually dwarfs the MIC) but they also functions as subcontractors to miltary technological systems is crucial to the MIC. Again, this is all being sold as militarism and never ending war against [whatever].
This is all tied into the neoliberal programs of European elites and the right wing bias in political “solutions”. It was also understood very early in the political circles that dominate the political spectum on “all sides” and the way which this policy is directed is tantamount to the current situation.
Publish the info , all that’s possible to get on the filth , all of them, Blackwater, Academi all the scum . Names, addresses, relatives. The scumbags have something left behind at homes dear to them.
Contained in Europe against who?
I knew in the 1960s a US war was coming. 9/11 I watched in Boston and knew it was a set up, theater, a terrorist plan known and allowed to happen to the one set of mega building which were built with an explosive in all floors that melt steel girders when heat triggered. The burning plane fuel from the two passenger planes did that.
Mc Carthy’s popularity illuminated those millions of Americans bloodthirsty for intellectuals. Truman represented the millions of America rascists in passionate action. As my sons grew into long pants, young black men were hung from trees in the South just for being black made me wonder what was so different from the European men who had built and run the holacaust prisons and made human skin lampshades.
None it now seems quite clear. America does not like Europe nor Europeans nor Asia nor Asians…or anyone. Even reality to her is so ephemeral, incomplete and happenstance as to need remaking.