by Colonel Cassad
Source: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2749753.html
Translated by Seva
One of the readers sent a comparative analysis of UA losses in the war in Donbass based on the data of the Military Balance for 2013 and 2016, with the emphasis on the lists of official personnel of the UA (Ukrainian Army) units.
The most authoritative in the world military analytical agency International Institute for Strategic Studies http://www.iiss.org/ issued a report Military Balance for 2016 http://rutracker.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5177025, which, when compared to the report for 2013 http://rutracker.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4679015, allows to estimate irrecoverable losses of military hardware in the UA during the active phase of ATO at ~50%, taking into account vehicles repaired after Petro Poroshenko had officially announced the loss of ~60%. These reports also allow one to offer an estimate of the losses in the UA personnel during ATO. In vehicles that were damaged beyond repair there were 29,700 solders that likely were at least wounded.
| 2016 | 2013 | Losses | Losses, % | Crew | Personnel | |
| Total | 4,974 | 9,986 | 5,012 | 50% | 29,690 | |
| Artillery | 1,862 | 3,351 | 1,489 | 44% | 6,870 | |
| Self-propelled artillery | 541 | 1226 | 685 | 56% | 2,349 | |
| 122 mm 2C1 “Gvozdika” (Carnation) | 247 | 600 | 353 | 59% | 4 | 1,412 |
| 152 mm 2C3 “Akatsiya” (Acacia) | 235 | 463 | 228 | 49% | 4 | 912 |
| 152 mm 2C19 “Msta-C” | 35 | 40 | 5 | 13% | 5 | 25 |
| Towed artillery | 515 | 1065 | 550 | 52% | 3,740 | |
| 122 mm D-30 | 75 | 369 | 294 | 80% | 6 | 1,764 |
| 152 mm 2A36 “Giacint-B” | 180 | 287 | 107 | 37% | 8 | 856 |
| 152 mm 2A65 “Msta-B” | 130 | 185 | 55 | 30% | 8 | 440 |
| 152 mm D-20 | 130 | 215 | 85 | 40% | 8 | 680 |
| Multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) | 348 | 554 | 206 | 37% | 781 | |
| MLRS BM-12 “Grad” (Hail) | 185 | 351 | 166 | 47% | 3 | 498 |
| MLRS “Uragan” (Hurricane) | 70 | 137 | 67 | 49% | 4 | 268 |
| MLRS “Smerch” (Tornado) | 75 | 80 | 5 | 6% | 3 | 15 |
| Tanks | 788 | 1110 | 322 | 29% | 1,170 | |
| T-64, including “Bulat” (Dagger) | 710 | 1100 | 390 | 35% | 3 | 1,170 |
| T-72 from storage | 70 | |||||
| T-80 from storage | 8 | |||||
| Armored personnel carriers (APC) | 1,319 | 3,028 | 1,709 | 56% | 12,580 | |
| APC-2 | 960 | 1,434 | 474 | 33% | 10 | 4,740 |
| APC-1 | 210 | 994 | 784 | 79% | 10 | 7,840 |
| Armored fighting vehicle (AFV) | 490 | 1,432 | 942 | 66% | 9,070 | |
| AFV-70 | 235 | 857 | 622 | 73% | 10 | 6,220 |
| AFV-80 | 110 | 395 | 285 | 72% | 10 | 2,850 |
How do analysts count military hardware and personnel
Below we present a few comments regarding the methods analysts use to count military hardware and personnel, to give you an idea how reliable these data are.
Naturally, analysts do not use websites with pictures of demolished hardware, such as http://lostarmour.info/, because only a fraction of destroyed hardware is photographed and only a fraction of that can be identified.
Professional analysts use a different very efficient method. They take “official staffing” of the armed forces. Because standard armaments of military units are no secret, one can calculate military hardware by multiplying units by the hardware pieces they have. This method somewhat overestimates the amount of serviceable military hardware in the UA, as pieces in repairs or non-functional ones are counted as active units. The advantage of this method is that it takes into account the capacity of the military industry to repair damaged hardware: damaged tank or APC would not be counted as lost if they were repaired.
This method allowed evaluation how many units with standard armament the UA had in 2013 before ATO, and how many units are there in 2016. The losses of different arms vary, but overall are at about 50%. This matches Petro Poroshenko’s statements about the 60% losses and very modest numbers of purchased new arms and repairs of damaged ones. Kharkov tank-building plant stated that the plans for new production and repairs totally failed http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/398278.html. In fact, in terms of repairs and maintenance of tanks, the Ukrainian military industry can mostly repaint them. The capacity of the Ukrainian military industry for serious repairs of severely damaged vehicles and new production is a few dozens a year, as is clear from the report of Military Balance.
We’d like to note that this method requires taking into account that the numbers of military hardware can be reduced not only by losses in warfare, but also by sales to other countries. However, during this period the UA sold abroad relatively few tanks (see http://krasdostup.ru/1972-ukrainazanimalas-eksportom-vooruzheniya-v-afriku/), essentially only 11 tanks T-72 to Nigeria. These sales do not change much, as compared to losses of thousands in the war. Besides, the Ukrainian military mostly sell abroad the equipment not used in ATO.
Estimates of personnel losses and the paradox of mobilizations without demobilization
One must mention that during ATO military analysts ironically noted that the first three waves of mobilization were not matched by demobilization, but the UA did not create any new units, even though more than 30,000 men were drafted. That black humor was caused by the impression that mobilizations just replenished losses of killed and wounded. There is a possibility, though, that some of the mobilized solders were sent to semi-regular units of the National Guard, which could explain this paradox.
However, the data from Military Balance show that the black humor of military analysts was not far from the mark. The UA simply did not have the hardware to create new units. Also, even Anton Geraschenko (advisor to the Minister of Internal affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov; member of Rada; gain notoriety with the creation of the site “Mirotvorets” (Peacemaker) containing personal information about various opposition figures and journalists – translator’s note), who oversaw the creation of the National Guard units, said that one should not exaggerate the personnel of the National Guard, which never exceeded 5,000. Because of that, Anton Geraschenko complained about low numbers of “patriots”.
Since the analysts know the exact numbers of military hardware lost by the UA in ATO, as well as the crew of each vehicle, one can calculate the number of personnel in destroyed vehicles – 29,690 solders.
Let me remind you that the analysts only count hardware that cannot be restored, i.e., very seriously damaged. In most cases, this means damage to the body with subsequent fire, so that repairs with spare parts make no sense – the vehicle has burnt out. It is obvious that members of the crew of vehicles with this kind of damage were at least wounded. Thus, the number of killed and wounded UA solders is about 29,690, and roughly corresponds to the numbers mobilized in the first three waves, which just replaced lost solders. This did not leave any for demobilization.
The problem with spare parts for Russian tanks and APCs/AFBs
We also need to comment on tanks T-72 and T-80 produced by Uralvagonzavod (a Russian machine building company located in Nizhny Tagil, Ural Region, Russia. It is the largest tank producer in the world manufacturing, among other things, tank “Armata” – translator’s note). Some of these tanks were in storage since the times of the USSR. But, according to Military Balance, they were not used by the UA until 2015. Moreover, functional T-72 were sold abroad even in 2014. Thus, the losses of T-72 and very few battle-ready T-72 tanks in the UA in 2015 were not so much the result of war losses, as the lack of spare parts from Russian Uralvagonzavod.
The UA had similar problems with Soviet APCs and AFVs. Although the Ukrainian military industry can produce a limited number of APCs and AFVs, Ukraine needed serial production of spare parts for Soviet machines. Spare parts for AFV-70 and AFV-80 are produced by the Gorki car plant. Parts for APC-1 and APC-2 are produced by the Kurgan machine-building plant. The arms for these AFVs and APCs are produced by the Tula machine-building plant. All these Russian suppliers are unavailable for Ukraine, which explains dramatic losses of APCs and AFVs. This might mean that personnel loses were lower – AFVs and APCs were written off after moderate damage. On the other hand, with the losses of AFVs and APCs at 56-66%, even with new production, the UA cannot form large motorized infantry units it had in 2013 and take advantage of its large mobilization resources. This explains reduced mobilization plans, as the UA does not have necessary vehicles. The war on school buses is a thing of the past, especially considering the capacity of modern artillery, such as self-propelled artillery pieces and MRLS, discussed below.
Shadow fighters of anti-battery units
What strikes one in Military Balance data are huge losses of light howitzers D-30 – ~80%. Partially this can be explained by the fact that many howitzers were transferred to semi-regular units of the National Guard that mostly shelled cities and townships. But this does not explain the losses of self-propelled artillery pieces Gvozdika (~60%) and 152 mm Akatsia (~50%). It certainly does not explain the losses of ~50% of MRLS Grad and Uragan. The destruction of self-propelled artillery (SPA) is hard due to its mobility and armor. The destruction of MRLS requires an incredibly short time of reaction, as they leave the positions within a minute. Thus, these losses of self-propelled artillery and MRLS and incredible losses of howitzers D-30 suggest that the UA was confronted by modern artillery, very possibly Russian.
Tymchuk (Ukrainian military commenter – translator’s note) wrote many times about the presence of Artillery Radio-location system (RLS) Zoopark-1 in Donbass (http://www.unian.net/politics/1025946-boevikiperebrosili-na-trassu-vozle-enakievo-radiolokatsionnyiy-kompleks-zoopark-1-is.html). This RLS can observe missile trajectories and calculate the location of launchers even before the missiles hit the ground. Then Zoopark, using communication channels protected against radio-electronic interference, transmits the coordinates of the launchers or artillery pieces for targeting. However, only a modern SPA or MRLS using global positioning information Glonass can act on this to immediately hit SPA, MRLS, or a howitzer. Indeed, there was a battery of “on-leave” servicemen using Msta-C, possibly modernized to Msta-CM. It is doubtful that these Msta-Cs are war trophies, as the UA lost only 5 units of heavy Msta-C. Also note that the UA has only 35 heavy Msta-C, which is too few to win artillery duels on such an extended front. Another candidate for fighting with Zoopark-1 is modern Russian MRLS Tornado-G, but it is hard to distinguish it from usual MRLS-12 Grad: the difference is in electronic systems of control, navigation, and communications.
Either way, these huge losses of the UA artillery cannot be explained without supposing that its adversaries possessed more powerful and modern artillery, at least at the time of artillery duels. It is likely that reduced shelling of Donbass towns by the UA is not so much the result of Misk-2 agreement as the result of anti-artillery actions, which might have been conducted by “on-leave” Russians.
The myths of huge amounts of stored USSR military equipment that the UA has
The Military Balance report specifically notes that the amount of military hardware in storage that the UA has is not just very small but zero in many categories. Everything that could be taken out of storage in terms of SPA, MRLS, APCs, AFVs had already been taken, and the UA has nothing in storage. The UA has some 203 mm howitzers Pion, outdated “nuclear artillery” pieces, which, without nuclear missiles, such as ”Perforator”, are not particularly useful because of their unacceptably large scatter of fired missiles. That’s why the UA does not use these self-propelled howitzers, except for 7 units, which is more for PR actions than real military tasks.
The other significant stored source for the UA – nearly 700 tanks. However, most of them are T-72 and T-80, which cannot be repaired without Russian spare parts. That is why the UA uses only 78 of these tanks, the rest are likely to be “cannibalized” as a source of spare parts. The condition of the tanks in storage is also in doubt. While the irrevocable loss of tanks T-64 in ATO was ~35%, but, according to Military Balance, the UA did not use a single T-64 from storage. As Poroshenko advisor Bityukov notes, the tanks in storage are “dead bodies” (http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/366069.html) that can be used at best as the source of guns, as artillery pieces of necessary quality are not produced in Ukraine.
In fact, stored tanks made possible to reduce the tank losses to 29%. At the same time much more critical losses of APCs, AFVs, self-propelled artillery, and MRLS were not replaced from storage or purchases from the Ukrainian military industry, as the pieces of these types are either not produced in Ukraine, or produced in minuscule quantities, as compared to huge losses in ATO.
Conclusions
Poroshenko’s statement that the UA lost up to 60% of military hardware during the war is likely true.
The Ukrainian military industry has no capacity to compensate for losses of that magnitude and managed to repair only 10% of damaged hardware.
The Ukrainian military industry does not produce self-propelled artillery and MRLS, and produces very few APCs and AFVs. Repairs depend on Russian spare parts, so the losses of these units are irrevocable.
Judging by the losses of light self-propelled artillery pieces (59%), light howitzers (80%), and MRLS “Uragan”, in Donbass the UA was faced by more professional and modern artillery of the adversaries and was hopelessly outgunned in counter-artillery battles. Since the Ukrainian military industry does not produce self-propelled artillery and MRLS, the UA artillery cannot be replenished.
Large losses of APCs and AFVs make it impossible for the UA to take advantage of its superior mobilizational resources and create big motorized infantry units. In fact, the personnel of motorized infantry was reduced by ~60%.
Most likely, the number of killed and seriously wounded UA solders is ~30,000, as this number is the sum total of crews of seriously damaged hardware, and the same number was mobilized in the first two waves without the creation of new units.
To summarize, as far as the most common military hardware, such as APCs, AFVs, and light self-propelled artillery, are concerned, the UA losses are ~60% and cannot be replaced by the Ukrainian military industry. The UA capacity for offensive at this level of losses is doubtful. In addition, one can expect a manifold increase in the official numbers of the UA personnel losses, as the data on lost hardware and mobilization suggest the loss of ~30,000 solders.
We might want to consider the report lostarmour http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2710052.html on lost armored vehicles by the Ukrainian and Novorossian armies in Donbass in 2014-2016.
Generally speaking, both methods have their advantages and disadvantages, as it is obvious that lostarmour did not count everything destroyed, as well as that the loss of hardware (counted based on staffing standards) in some cases did not mean that it was destroyed. For example, some hardware lost after 2013 was left in Crimea and returned to Ukraine only partially. Some hardware could have existed only on paper and even before the war could have been non-repairable. This suggests that the real losses of the UA still need to be further researched to make the conclusions more precise.
The comparison of Military Balance reports for 2013 and 2014 can be found here:
http://katmoor.livejournal.com/957166.html
PS. Regarding “on-leave” Russian personnel and “Zoopark” systems, it is worth noting that a Kiev court refused to acknowledge “Russian aggression” https://lenta.ru/news/2016/05/12/agressia/.
As I wrote here http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1751820.html almost two years ago:
One can argue anything in the Internet, but diplomats would play ping-pong for weeks and months. There is certain job to be done, and there is its informational and diplomatic cover. Just like in Crimea. This game continues, and is accepted by all sides. One would think that the masters of the junta have many “proofs” of the work of “Voentorg” (literally “Military Store”; the name stands for the for Russia sending supplies to the rebels – translator’s note), but with amazing constancy they repeat the same line “But the rebels certainly could not have that” and receive the standard answers like “Whoever understands whatever, and whatever do the rebels have, you have no proof”. As this arrangement is cyclical, it can last indefinitely, even until Kiev or Lvov is taken: Lavrov will step up to the microphone and state that Russia does not participate in anything. And officially this will be so. Whereas anything that any blogger or commenter wrote in his blog would remain personal opinions of individuals. I dare you to say that this scheme does not work.
As we see, the scheme, where officially nothing exists, can work not just for weeks and months but for years, and these rules of the game are accepted by all participants, with some stipulations.
I have seen this Cassad’s article and decided not to report it after some consideration.
I believe that Cassad has completely missed the point.
The professional analysts’ “efficient method” of counting that he uses works for any other army, but Ukrainian for one simple reason, Kiev sold weapons, pocketed cash and blamed missing equipment on fighting in Donabss.
The WT reported this back in April, 2014.
Sold out: Ukraine’s leadership swapped best military weapons for cash
http://www.washingtontimes.com/…/sold-out-ukraines-leadership-sw...
The Washington Times
Apr 23, 2014 – The woeful state of Ukraine’s military can be blamed on corruption, Kiev’s shaky commitment to national defense and a policy of selling the best …
You can search for yourself.
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ukraine+sell+weapon+to+
Very good reporting. The only sidebars I might add to it are two. First (and most important) it doesn’t count (and how could it) the numbers of mercenaries and fascist “volunteers” (and their dead and wounded). I suspect that would add a big number to the “lost” personnel from the war so far. The second is the number the Ukrainians gave for the “National Guard”. I think it is much higher than a maximum of 5,000. I’ve seen countless photos of men in National Guard uniforms. And though “some” of those photo’s may show the same men. Most of them look like different people to me. I remember in particular the large numbers on video at a demonstration demanding demobilization a year or so ago. That group (only a part of the guard) looked to be over,or almost 5,000 by itself. Then I’ve also seen training videos,and graduation ceremonies that look large as well (and social media photos by the hundreds, of guard members). So taken altogether I think 5,000 is certainly an under-count.It might be the numbers killed or wounded from that group. But not the total figure of members.
BUK missile rounds … … … 1
But seriously, the list does not include any aircraft. Didn’t they have some back in 2013? And none now? For a 100% loss?
The report appeared to focus exclusively on the Army.
Thanks for this detailed analysis. Gives a glimpse into what actually goes into it. I did not know that the war is going on to this extent. I grieve for all the bloodshed running under the covers of political correctness. I have to bear in mind that there are also losses of civilians and military on the side we favor.
Those numbers are from uk stopges themselves (official)?
Number of dead is alot more then 5000, thats for sure.
I remember how they extremly undercounted their losses, while i followed the minute by minute events for the first half year.
Could count myself numbers of bodies and equipments (screenshots, videoes, etc) alot higher then the official fairytale at that time.
Western official numbers i assume is still around 2-3000?;)
50.000+ is more realistic.
The ukr army got basicly “nuked” by the much better profesional tactics of noverossian army (Strelkov etc). They topk heights, made quadrons/encirclements and blasted the ukr fascists to smitheriens on many occasions.
Ukr fascists lost alot when they tried to seal the border behind novorossia. They got locked in.
Major flaw is that it is presumed that all crew on every item of destroyed equipment was killed. This is not possible and would imply the use of some mythical “wunderwaffe”. However, it does not include, or make any mention, of how many casualties would have been inflicted on troops in the open killed by artillery bombardment, particularly MLRS, and it is very likely that the majority of casualties would have been caused by such bombardments. Artillery, tubed or rocket, is the biggest killer on the battlefield since WWI. I don’t have the proof, but many UA casualties would have been of forces not assigned to any vehicle or equipment, but simply infantry cannon fodder moved to the front in trucks, and there are a number of incidences of such convoys being destroyed, and of UA encampments being hit and devastated because they were incapable of making even the most basic protection methods, no temporary bunkers or trenches, not even foxholes, and everything, including ammunition boxes, and everybody, bunched together and not spread out. An example is the devastation caused to UA units, such as 30th and 50th brigades around Saur-Mogila in mid August 2014. And of course previously at Zelenepole. Tho I think the method of calculating casualties by equipment lost is naive and inaccurate, the number of UA deaths is higher than the one quoted in the article, perhaps higher by a further ten thousand due to casualties caused to infantry not part of the crew of any of the equipment listed in the article, and killed by artillery bombardment.
Me too, I think the estimation of killed and wounded soldiers is flawed. If one assumes that in 2013 personnel and hardware was balanced, and that it is again balanced in 2016, then 29’000 less personnel (destroyed hardware) plus 30’000 men mobilized sums to 59’000 people killed or wounded.
Yes, you’re absolutely correct. Infantry has been ignored in the article
I put the number killed in total….somewhere between 25,000 to 30,000
glad to see Cassad translated again, very nice contribution of course
german BND said at some point 50,000 casualties (KIA not WIA) including the 10K offically counted (motsly civilians i guess)
FAZ, one of Germany’s bigger newspapers, claimed up to 50,000 dead already in February 2015, when official numbers where 7,000. The source was “German security/military sources [sicherheitskreisen]”.
For some reason international media chose to ignore this report ?
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-sicherheitskreise-bis-zu-50-000-tote-13416132.html
but note even today ukr forces still kidnap innocent civilians from Donbass area, under what excuses or pretences but usually in percieved “sympathy” with AFN, torturing and killing them.
4 DPR residents captured and missing over the past week
May 20, 2016 | DONBASS LIFE
The Ukrainian military captured two residents of the DPR over the past week and more two people were missing. ‘It should be noted that the Republican Ombudsman’s office…
Sunday, May 22, 2016 – 17:55
The third year of war in Donbass is running already. Recently I returned from the LPR where I had visited the front line and talked to the soldiers so that to learn the situation in the lines, the moods among the soldiers and plans of the Ukrainian side.
Donbass defenders don’t conceal being tired of the slow and mean war which is characterized by unexpected bloody clashes. Our party is forced to observe the Minsk arrangements unilaterally. People pine from inaction and have to gnash teeth watching their comrades-in-arms perish from the enemy’s artillery.
Everybody perfectly understands owing to whose efforts the Republic is alive and who is the limiting factor forcing the Ukrainian military to remain on the differentiation line.
Meanwhile the intensity of hostilities is gradually increasing. The Ukrainian military daily fire at the territory of the Republic; conduct reconnaissance-in-force operations; transfer subversive units.
Soldiers believe that Poroshenko will earlier or later break down and begin the attack. And for what else does Kiev pull together more and more equipment, and also personnel, including foreign mercenaries, to the differentiation line? It is expensive and harmful to hold such large troops on the border with Novorossia eternally – fighters quickly become inveterate drunkards and degrade.
The military plans of Poroshenko’s Administration have been already confirmed by the Kiev press as well: the newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnya writes about persistent Kiev’s offers at negotiations to introduce to the LDPR the 11-thousand police mission from among the armed representatives of the OSCE.
All of us perfectly understand what really want these majdan moron authorities. Being incapable of seizing Novorossia by its own efforts, Kiev has a strong wish to make it by the hands of NATO. Naturally, in order to turn Donbass into another Serbian Krajina. To carry out large-scale cleansing and to subordinate the rebellious region in which even on the occupied part there is constantly operating guerrilla movement.
Nobody can tell how long this situation will last. One thing is clear: time plays against Kiev – while our defenders keep the front line, the republics irrevocably leave away from the Maidan Ukraine.
Yury Kovalchuk, a journalist from Kherson who became one of defenders of Donbass
DONi News Agency
——————————–Monday, May 23, 2016 – 15:11
The situation in the Donetsk People’s Republic remains tense.
Over the past day the Ukrainian military shelled the territory of the Republic three hundred eight times. The enemy launched two hundred four 120mm and 82mm mortar shells. In addition, the enemy used in shelling tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers of different types and small arms.
The Ukrainian military opened fire at the following localities: Staromikhaylovka, Yasinovataya, Spartak, Dokuchaevsk, Vesyoloye, Sakhanka, Sosnovoye, Kominternovo, the area of the airport and the Petrovsky district of Donetsk city.
The criminal orders to shell the DPR territory were given by the brigade commanders Zhakun, Shandar, Sokolov and Delyatitsky.
Our intelligence continues to report the amassing of the nationalist units along the contact line. In particular, there were detected up to two platoons of the well-equipped personnel of the “Azov” regiment (up to 45 men) moving via the locality of Novgorodskoye (6 km away from the contact line) towards the locality of Dzerzhinsk (5 km away from the contact line). The same number of the “Azov” personnel advanced into the area of the locality of Artyomovsk (16 km away from the contact line).
Our intelligence reports the extremely low morale in the AFU units. We make such conclusions based on systematically obtained documents from the “ATO” headquarters. In particular, the APU command does not dismiss the military of the 5th wave of mobilization, deliberately delaying the timing of their service. Due to this fact, the military openly express defiance to their commanders, declaring not to understand this war. Such sentiments provoke the nationalist units to conflict with the AFU soldiers unwilling to fight. The conflicts often end in the meanest shooting of soldiers in the back or mutual skirmishes. According to our estimates, due to such conflicts, only over the past two weeks the losses in the AFU units and divisions amounted to more than 70 men killed, not to mention the wounded. The AFU command is hiding the true causes of conflicts, not voicing these data even as non-combat losses.
An endless stream of the killed and wounded to military hospitals of Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol and other cities of Ukraine indicates an attempt of the Ukrainian military command to hide the true situation in the “ATO” area. They try to hush up the fact that the second and the ninth of May divided the Ukrainian military environment into two parts, with the most of soldiers categorically refusing to fight.
Our intelligence reports the growth of contradictions of the Ukrainian soldiers not only with the voluntary nationalist units, such as the “Azov” and “Aydar”, but also with their direct commanders who came to sit up in their headquarters and obtain the status of a participant in hostilities and undeserved rewards, in fact, on the blood of civilians. As it turns out, these are the commanders who give orders to shell the DPR territory or perform stupid tasks putting the lives of their subordinates at risk. These are the commanders who take you for cannon fodder, imagining you getting into another pocket by their fault.
In this regard, we urge the Ukrainian military to unite and create real pockets of resistance against the war-mongering nationalists who have come to kill civilians and shoot simple Ukrainian soldiers tired of the war in Donbass. We urge you to unite against the corrupt Bandera oligarchic power. Because the true causes of the war lie in the absence of moral of those who ideologically serve interests of their American masters!
Ukrainian military, soldiers and officers, you have weapons in your hands and you know perfectly well where the puppet regime has brought the country. Only you can make a difference by getting rid of those who profit from the grief of ordinary people.
Vice-Commander of the DPR Defense Ministry operative command Donetsk Eduard Basurin, official translation by DONi News Agency
——————————————————————–
Sunday, May 22, 2016 – 16:50
On 19.5.2016 at 6:30 pm shells from Ukrainian mortars started to explode suddenly and without any warning in Staromikhailovka, Donetsk People’s Republic, which is a civilian village in the outskirts of Donetsk capital. Together around 12 shells caused damage to four houses and shelling happened a 2nd time in just one week towards residents of the village. Ukrainian positions are about 3-4 kilometers from shelled location.
Luckily no-one was injured from obvious terror shelling and provocation, made by Ukrainian forces. The OSCE monitor mission was not seen in place same evening or the day after, where residents had already rebuilt damages made from shelling. The targeted area is about 100 meters in diameter and its clear, that these kind of war crimes should be noted in reports by the international community and its monitors.
DONi TV Journalist, report and pictures: Janus Putkonen
Published on 22.5.2016, DONi News
———————————————————————–
Monday, May 23, 2016 – 13:54
The Ukrainian authorities only simulates the willingness to fulfill their obligations in Minsk to settle the conflict in Donbass.
According to The Politnavigator, it is written in the Kiev influential weekly “Zerkalo Nedeli” that points out that the work on the bill on elections in the certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions (CADLR) is nearing completion, but Kiev is not eager to hold elections in these areas.
‘Kiev is even less eager to finance the ORDLO from the already meager budget. But there are the “Minsk” obligations which force Kiev to, at least, indicate its willingness to perform them. Therefore, today’s tactics of Bankovaya (the street where the presidential administration is situated) is to hide the reluctance to hold elections behind a willingness to adopt the law of holding them. For that, it is planned to provide the bill with the requirements which Moscow will not accept and with the conditions that can not be fulfilled. In this case, even the possible adoption of the law on the elections in the CADLR will allow postponing indefinitely holding the electoral campaign. There is a discussion on the possibility (if absolutely necessary) to cancel the already adopted law on elections in the uncontrolled territories (as well as the notorious law “On the special status” which may also acquire legal force) by the Constitutional Court. After all, their unconstitutionality is obvious, and the matter of the appropriate amendments is postponed until better times. Which Berlin and Washington agreed upon once, even though reluctantly,’ says the publication.
‘Kiev cannot openly ignore the “Minsk” prescriptions, first and foremost, because of the fear of lifting sanctions against Russia. Especially that the “Western partners” openly blackmail Kiev with such a step. ‘If you do not observe “Minsk”, we will lift the sanctions!’ threatens Brussels. ‘If you do not observe “Minsk”, we will not be able to keep the EU from lifting the sanctions!’ echoes Washington. The situation is almost a stalemate: if the Minsk agreement are met, all the restrictions will be removed from Russia; if they are not, the sanctions will be lifted as a punishment for Kiev’s optionality. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities act by the following logic: to demonstrate loyalty to the spirit of the Minsk Agreements and, at the same time, try to make sure that they will never be implemented. So far, this tactic has worked as the matter of prolonging sanctions against Russia till the end of this year is practically settled. Whether they will be prolonged in December, no one is willing to predict,’ points out the publication.
DONi News Agency
——————————————————————
It was announced in the DPR that provocation prepared by Kiev was prevented
on: May 22, 2016
Thankfully to the complex of events held by the DPR soldiers and fulfilment of the Minsk 2 agreements, we managed to prevent horrible bloody provocation close to Avdeevka.
Be reminded that facts were fixed that Ukrainian side prepared provocation for 2 weeks. Shelling of civilians was planned. Aviation shells were delivered to Avdeevka.
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This was reported by RIA Novosti. It brought together people from different cities of the DNI. They chant “OSCE open your eyes”
Also holding placards with slogans “Ukraine destroys us, you are silent”, “Donbass in the fire.” They also asked the OSCE does not introduce a police mission in Donbass.
Ukrainian security officials in the afternoon on Sunday released the mines in a number of settlements of the DNI. Reported Donetsk news agency, citing a source in law enforcement agencies DNI. The Ukrainian side has led attacks on the territory of the airport, Spartacus, and Trudovskoy Staromykhailivka. Also under fire it turned Sahanka village in the south of the republic. According to the source, the fire was from the standpoint of the APU in areas Krasnogorovka, Marinka, Avdeevka and district mine ventilation shaft Butovskaya.
Eduard Eduard Basurin told reporters that Ukrainian security forces violated ceasefire during remediation of the pipeline in the area of Marinka. According to him, three security officials opened fire around the village of Marinka Trudovskoy using grenade launchers and sniper rifles. “The fourth time firing was carried out in the direction of Marinka Alexandrovka presumably mortar shells of 82 mm, which has recorded the OSCE mission. Despite the four-fold violation of the ceasefire, restoration work continued and was completed”.
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link to video of last weeks newrussia news
http://www.anna-news.info/node/58090
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The artillery losses are noteworthy, but there are two things I would like highlight, based off my observations (ie photos and youtube) of UA artillery positions.
They are on fields, in the open, often a full battalion in a line (12 pieces), sometimes dug in, other times not. I have never seen any attempt of camouflage, nor any evidence of shoot and scoot. An American observer made a comment that the rebels/Russians were able to disturb or counterfire on battery radio transmissions, thus they did rely on radio transmissions in lieu of cable.
All this in strong contrast to my experience as a Swedish reserve infantry officer during the early 90s (thus pretty much the same equipment set for the OPFOR). We had extreme efforts at camouflage, the battery positions were chosen as much for shielding as for open horizon, the mortars and brigade artillery was almost always connected by telephone – the hardest working guys were the cable guys laying cable to the front companies and to future battery positions. We always had half our artillery regrouping to the next position, and the clock starting ticking for reqrouping after the first fire mission.
I do not see this with the Ukrainians, nor do I see the US teaching them this.
Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine Andrey Reva said in interview to the website “epravda” on May 23rd, that the pension fund of the country is virtually bankrupt — the deficit on its balance reached 145 billion hryvnia (about $5.8 billion).
According to him, the entire budget of the fund amounts to 257 billion UAH (about $10.3 billion), more than half of that (145 billion or $5.8 billion) are grants from the state budget. “So the pension fund is bankrupt,” said Reva, explaining that there is virtually nothing to cover the deficit.
The critical situation with the pension fund is the fault of the former leadership, said the Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine. It was, according to Reva, decided that the deficit of 80 billion hryvnia ($3.2 billion) should be reduced by taxing the personal income of the richest retirees at 15%.
Thus, the fund reduced the single social contribution, giving businesses 65 billion hryvnia ($2.6 billion). And so it turned out the deficit was 145 billion, concluded Reva. He added that the deficit will only increase, as pensions in the country are too small and they need to be increased.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/05/minister-of-ukrainian-social-policy.html
The report does NOT count on the UA side the put into service again SP Artillery 2 S 7 PION.
link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9DJv-Uoa7g
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGAtCY9HbG0
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feumAGtwT1I
Correcture needed. THX.
Hi Saker, have you seen the liveleak video of the Italian speaking Ukrainian soldier? Commenters of the video took note that the accent sounded like someone from northern Italy, instead of someone who has learned Italian from a class/course.