[This article was written for the Unz Review]
The drama which is unfolding in northern Syria is truly an almost ideal case to fully assess how weak and totally dysfunctional the AngloZionist Empire has really become. Let’s begin with a quick reminder.
The US-Israeli goals in Syria were really very simple. As I have already mentioned in a past article, the initial AngloZionist plan was to overthrow Assad and replace him with the Takfiri crazies (Daesh, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, ISIS – call them whatever you want). Doing this would achieve the following goals:
- Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces and security services.
- Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan, but further north.
- Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
- Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
- Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
- Breakup Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
- Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
- Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and forces the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
- Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
- Eliminate all center of Shia power in the Middle-East.
With the joint Russian-Iranian military intervention, this plan completely collapsed. For a while, the USA tried to break up Syria under various scenarios, but the way the Russian Aerospace forces hammered all the “good terrorists” eventually convinced the AngloZionists that this would not work.
The single biggest problem for the Empire is that while it has plenty of firepower in the region (and worldwide), it cannot deploy any “boots on the ground”. Being the Empire’s boots on the ground was, in fact, the role the AngloZionists had assigned to the Takfiri crazies (aka Daesh/IS/ISIS/al-Qaeda/al-Nusra/etc/), but that plan failed. The only US allies left in the region are Israel and Saudi Arabia. The problem with them is that, just like the USA themselves, these countries do not have ground forces capable of actually deploying inside Syria and taking on not only the Syrian military, but the much more capable Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Murdering civilians is really the only thing the Israelis and Saudis are expert in, at least on the ground (in the skies the Israeli Air Force is a very good one). Enter the Kurds.
The AngloZionist wanted to use the Kurds just like NATO had used the KLA in Kosovo: as a ground force which could be supported by US/NATO and maybe even Israeli airpower. Unlike the Israelis and Saudis, the Kurds are a relatively competent ground force (albeit not one able to take on, say, Turkey or Iran).
The folks at the Pentagon had already tried something similar last year when they attempted to create a sovereign Kurdistan in Iraq by means of a referendum. The Iraqis, with some likely help from Iran, immediately put an end to this nonsense and the entire exercise was a pathetic “flop”.
Which immediately begs to obvious question: are the Americans even capable of learning from their mistakes? What in the world were they thinking when they announced the creation of 30’000 strong Syrian Border Security Force (BSF) (so called to give the illusion that protecting Syria’s border was the plan, not the partition Syria)? The real goal was, as always, to put pressure on Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Russia while grabbing a lot of oil. As always with Uncle Shmuel, the entire plan had no UNSC authorization was thus totally illegal under international law (as is the presence of the USA in the Syria’s airspace and territory, but nobody cares any more).
Did Trump and his generals really think that Turkey, Iran, Syria and Russia would accept a US protectorate in Syria masquerading as an “independent Kurdistan” and do nothing about it? Yet again, and I know this sounds hard to believe, but I think that this is yet another strong indication that the Empire is run by stupid and ignorant people whose brain and education simply do not allow them to grasp even the basic dynamics in the region of our planet there are interfering with.
Whatever may be the case the Turks reacted exactly as everybody thought: the Turkish Chief of Staff jumped into an airplane, flew to Moscow, met with top Russian generals (including Minister of Defense Shoigu) and clearly got a “go ahead” from Moscow: not only were the Turkish airplanes flying over Syria’s Afrin province not challenged by Russian air defense systems (which have ample coverage in this region), but the Russians also helpfully withdrew their military personnel from the region lest any Russian get hurt. Sergei Lavrov deplored it all, as he had to, but it was clear to all that Turkey had the Russian backing for this operation. I would add that I am pretty sure that the Iranians were also consulted (maybe at the same meeting in Moscow?) to avoid any misunderstandings as there is little love lost between Ankara and Tehran.
What about the Kurds? Well, how do I say that nicely? Let’s just say that what they did was not very smart. That’s putting it very, very mildly. The Russians gave them a golden deal: accept large autonomy in Syria, come to the National Dialog Congress to take place in Sochi, we will make your case before the (always reluctant) Syrians, Iranians and Turks and we will even give you money to help you develop your oil production. But no, the Kurds chose to believe in the hot air coming from Washington and when the Turks attacked that is all the Kurds got from Washington: hot air.
In fact, it is pretty clear that the US Americans have, yet again, betrayed an ally: Tillerson has now “greenlighted” a 30km safe zone in Syria (as if anybody was asking for his opinion, nevermind permission!). Take a look at this simple map of the Afrin region and look what 50 miles (about 80km) look like. You can immediately see that this 30km “safe zone” means: the end of any Kurdish aspirations to created a little independent Kurdistan in northern Syria.
To say that all these developments make the Russians really happy is not an exaggeration. It is especially sweet for the Russians to see that they did not even have to do much, that this ugly mess of a disaster for the USA was entirely self-inflicted. What can be sweeter than that?
Let’ look at it all from the Russian point of view:
First, this situation further puts Turkey (a US ally and NATO member) on a collision course with the US/NATO/EU. And Turkey is not ‘just’ a NATO ally, like Denmark or Italy. Turkey is the key to the eastern Mediterranean and the entire Middle-East (well, one of them at least). Also, Turkey has a huge potential to be a painful thorn in the southern ‘belly’ of Russia so it is really crucial for Russia to keep Uncle Sam and the Israelis as far away from Turkey as possible. Having said that, nobody in Russia harbors *any *illusions about Turkey and/or Erdogan. Turkey will always be a problematic neighbor for Russia (the two countries already fought 12 wars!!!). But there is a big difference between “bad” and “worse”. Considering that in a not too distant past Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft over Syria, financed, trained and supported “good terrorists” in Syria, was deeply involved in the Tatar separatist movement in Crimea, and was the main rear base for the Wahabi terrorists in Chechnia for well over a decade, “worse” in the case of Turkey can be much, much worse than “bad” is today.
Second, these developments have clearly brought Turkey into an even closer cooperative dynamic with Russia and Iran, something which Russia very much desires. Turkey by itself is much more of a potential problem than a Turkey which partners up with Russia and Iran (ideally with Syria too, but considering the animosity between the two countries and their leaders that is something for the distant future, at least for the time being). What is shaping up is an informal (but very real) Russian-Turkish-Iranian regional alliance against the Axis of Kindness: USA-Israel-KSA. If that is what happens then the latter does not stand a chance to prevail.
Third, even though the Kurds are outraged and are now whining about the Russian “betrayal” – they will come to realize that they did it to themselves and that their best chance for freedom and prosperity is to work with the Russians. That means that the Russians will be able to achieve with, and for, the Kurds what the USA could not. Yet another very nice side-benefit for Russia.
Fourth, Syria, Iran and Turkey now realize a simple thing: only Russia stands between the crazy US-Israeli plans for the region and them. Absent Russia, there is nothing stopping the AngloZionist from re-igniting the “good terrorists” and the Kurds and use them against every one of them.
Be it as it may, having the USA and Israel shoot themselves in the leg and watch them bleed is not enough. To really capitalize on this situation the Russians need to also achieve a number of goals:
First, they need to stop the Turks before this all turns into a major and protracted conflict. Since Tillerson “greenlighted” a 30km “safe zone”, this is probably what Erdogan told Trump over the phone and that, in turn, is probably what the Russians and the Turks agreed upon. So, hopefully, this should not be too hard to achieve.
Second, the Russians need to talk to the Kurds and offer them the same deal again: large autonomy inside Syria in exchange for peace and prosperity. The Kurds are not exactly the easiest people to talk to, but since there is really no other option, my guess is that as soon as they stop hallucinating about the US going to war with Turkey on their behalf they will have to sit down and negotiate the deal. Likewise, the Russians will have to sell the very same deal to Damascus which, frankly, is in no position to reject it.
Third, Russia has neither the desire nor the means to constantly deal with violent flare-ups in the Middle-East. If the Empire desperately needs wars to survive, Russia desperately needs peace. In practical terms this means that the Russians must work with the Iranians, the Turks, the Syrians to secure a regional security framework which would be guaranteed and, if needed, enforced by all parties. And yes, the next logical step will be to approach Israel and the KSA and give them security guarantees in exchange for their assurances to stop creating chaos and wars on behalf of the USA. I know, I will get a lot of flak for saying this, but there *are* people in Israel and, possibly, Saudi Arabia who also understand the difference between “bad” and “worse”. Heed my words: as soon as the Israelis and the Saudis realize that Uncle Sam can’t do much for them either, they will suddenly become much more open to meaningful negotiations. Still, whether these rational minds will be sufficient to deal with the rabid ideologues I frankly don’t know. But it is worth trying for sure.
Conclusion
The Trump Administration’s “strategy” (I am being very kind here) is to stir up as many conflicts in as many places of our planet as possible. The Empire thrives only on chaos and violence. The Russian response is the exact opposite: to try as best can be to stop wars, defuse conflicts and create, if not peace, at least a situation of non-violence. Simply put: peace anywhere is the biggest danger to the AngloZionist Empire whose entire structure is predicated on eternal wars. The total and abject failure of all US plans for Syria (depending on how you count we are at “plan C” or even “plan D”) is a strong indicator of how weak and totally dysfunctional the AngloZionist Empire has become. But ‘weak’ is a relative term while ‘dysfunctional’ does not imply ‘harmless’. The current lack of brains at the top, while very good in some ways, is also potentially very dangerous. I am in particular worried about what appears to be a total absence of real military men (officers in touch with reality) around the President. Remember how Admiral Fallon once referred to General Petraeus as “an ass-kissing little chickenshit“? This also fully applies to the entire gang of generals around Trump – all of them are the kind of men real officers like Fallon would, in this words, “hate”. As for State, I will just say this: I don’t expect much from a man who could not even handle Nikki Haley, nevermind Erdogan.
Remember how the USA ignited the Ukraine to punish the Russians for their thwarting of the planned US attack on Syria? Well, the very same Ukraine has recently passed a law abolishing the “anti-terrorist operation” in the Donbass and declaring the Donbass “occupied territory”. Under Ukie law, Russia is now officially an “aggressor state”. This means that the Ukronazis have now basically rejected the Minsk Agreements and are in a quasi-open state of war with Russia. The chances of a full-scale Ukronazi attack on the Donbass are now even higher then before, especially before or during the soccer World Cup in Moscow this summer (remember Saakashvili?). Having been ridiculed (again) with their Border Security Force in Syria, the US Americans will now seek a place to take revenge on the evil Russkies and this place will most likely be the Ukraine. And we can always count the Israelis to find a pretext to continue to murder Palestinians and bomb Syria. As for the Saudis, they appear to be temporarily busy fighting each other. So unless the Empire does something really crazy, the only place it can lash out with little to lose (for itself) is the eastern Ukraine. The Novorussians understand that. May God help them.
The Saker
Saker, interesting analysis. 1 tiny point of criticism:
If I am not mistaken the CIA fomented “Orange revolution” in Ukraine was in 2014, whereas Russia stepped into the Syrian war in 2015. So in the quoted sentence, it seems you got the sequence of events back to front.
@Kid. Russia ‘stepped in’ to help Syria fend of the big NATZO Armada of 2013 not 2015. That was when Russian, Chinese and Iranian warships appeared in the Med, when the 2 US-made Israeli cruise missiles from their German-made nuclear-ready submarine flew mysteriously off-course and plopped harmlessly into the sea. And electronic guidance systems began mysteriously to malfunction in NATZO’s Grand Armada. At which point, 2013, the O’bomba in Washington and the Ca’Moron in London graciously decided to postpone their plan to have NATZO openly ‘bombombom’ Syria — and get the EUSA to open a military North Front in the Western Ukraina as a fresh distraction for Putin’s attempt to build a nicer and kinder world than the AZC can imagine.
Yes, maroudas the Obama plant was thwarted in 2013, by early winter, when the US fleet was in front of Syrian shores and Sergey Lavrov brilliantly caught his US counterpart threat byhis words and public reasons…
Lavrov said “we can and will guarantee Assad destroying his entire chemical arsenal”,so theUS can get back home.
The fleet made a U turnunder Obama´s command, the Russians and assad for their turn fulfilled their words and a useless (and ancient chemical arsenal built up just to dissuade TelAviv) was nullified.
It was a humiliation for the pentagon and deep state,and five months afterwards the Maidan burst into life just to kill Moscow´s unspeakable boldness
The two missiles weren’t they launched from the Rota Base in Spain?
Actually he didn’t. He refers to 2013 and messing up the Obama plan, by the method of turning in Syrian chemical weapons
Correct.
Thank you for clarifying this on my behalf.
Cheers
The Saker
Even before the Russian military got involved in the Syrian war Russia had foiled Washington’s plans for regime change via a No Fly Zone in Syria following a false flag chemical weapons attack that Washington blamed on Assad (when actually it was carried out by US backed terrorists). Washington was furious and the voup in Ukraine followed.
“Remember how the USA ignited the Ukraine to punish the Russians for their thwarting of the planned US attack on Syria?”
-Russia seems to be winning everywhere, except where it is most important, in Ukraine. Ukraine feels like a spring that keeps getting tighter and tighter ready to unleash its harmful energy on Russia when the time is just right.
The empire has never had a better chance at destroying Russia then thru Ukraine, not even Chechnya was anything close to as dangerous to Russia as Ukraine is. And I am not only referring to the military potential of Ukraine but the after-effects if things went wrong, such as sanctions. There are a lot of evil forces in EU that are just waiting to push the most negative sanctions on Russia, and a lot of weak leaders in EU that wont be able to resist them if Russia does something wrong in Ukraine.
The only harmful energy Bandera idiots can unleash is on themselves.
I am convinced that any large scale attack on Donetsk and Lugansk would end up with a collapse of Banderastan in an domino effect. There will not be anymore a limited response from DPR, LPR and Russia. It is going to be the end for Junta.
I respectfully disagree. Ukraine’s ties to Russia are too strong to break for the EU’s seductive non promises.
The longer Ukraine destroys itself as a functioning state, the sooner eastern Ukraine rejoins Russia and western Ukraine realizes its prosperity hinges on good neighboorly relations
@Anon and Kevin Ukraine is to close to Russia’s heart hence it must be handled with kid gloves. And, Anon you (mod-to note: assumption deleted) under the influence of Western deceptive narrative. If Russia was really losing Ukraine, then USofA would not impose more sanctions as a further attempt to force Russia to succumb to the emperor’s plans. Kevin, as Saker and other writers on this and other blogs said, Russia does not want to pay for rebuilding of Western destruction in Ukraine. The idea is the make them pay for their own mess. Although, I think that Russia might end up rebuilding the Ukraine.
Finally there is this FIFA sledge hummer hanging over Russia’s head coming this summer, so Russia will have pussy foot dance until at least then.
Russia could have avoided having to shoulder responsibility for rebuilding Banderastan if it had overthrown the Ukranazi coup regime on Day One in 2014 and reinstated Yanukovych. Now ultimately it will have to invade and occupy Ukraine, and govern it until fresh elections can be called, in the meantime rebuilding what the Ukranazi scum have destroyed. What Russia wants or doesn’t want is irrelevant, that is what it will have to do.
“The empire has never had a better chance at destroying Russia than thru Ukraine”
Don’t think so. At the very least, the knife cuts both ways: Russia has never had a better chance to destroy the Empire than through Ukraine. Russia knows the region inside out, and the Ukros aren’t precisely above stealing and embezzling, especially not if Russia has something “on offer”. Ukraine shows convincingly that today not even the West’s most über-grovelling, deluded morons can count on any real Zionazi goodwill. It certainly must be an excruciating pain finding it out “the hard way”.
Technically, the “Orange Revolution” was in late 2004 and into early 2005 and used to overthrow the results of the 2004 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution
Yes, I know it gets confusing. But it helps to remember that Victoria Nuland told the world that the US had spent $5 billion over 20 years destabilizing Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPVs5VuI8XI
The Orange Revolution in 2004 was an early stage of a long effort in ‘meddling’ in another nation’s affairs that only culminated with the Maiden Sq Revolution of early 2014. Or I suppose ‘culminated’ is the wrong word as Joe Biden recently bragged that he’d gotten a post-Maiden Ukraine Minister fired in only six hours and the word culminated would mean that the meddling was complete at that point.
Try $5 Trillions
Actually the work started as soon as Kuchma took over the office and progressively got worse until it culminated around the fall of 2013. Majdan was just the final circus.
Excellent analysis, you are on fire tonight, friend Saker.
Syria, Russia, and all the resistance axis – including Turkey – is harvesting a bounty of strategic good from the Afrin operation, as you know. The plans will play themselves out and benefit all good people of the region.
Everything the old empire does now creates results the exact opposite of what is intended, as you know.
If the whipping boy for failure in the ME is now Ukraine, then Novorossiya is ready, as you know. The more the US and the Zionists place pressure upon a certain spot, the more flowers will bloom in that spot – as you know.
Strangely, we are living in a time when the failing of evil is producing the arising of good, and in strength. One is tempted to ask the US to try even more evil and inane stratagems, just to hasten the arrival of good in the world, and the collapse of itself.
I don’t really know why it’s working this way, when just 3-4 years ago we all feared a violent, catastrophic spasm in the collapse of the US, but I can only rejoice that the fall is not heavy, but light. This is a blessing.
Thank you for your writing.
Grieved. You do see to the point. You write that you don’t know why the good is prospering so richly at this time. However the reason can be known. It is, to use Christian terms, the emerging will of god. In the bourgeois capitalist era one of the things that has been lost is a shared language for interpreting, and relating to, the power and movement of divine intention. “God” is thought to be a distant and irrelevant non actor (actress). Denial supreme!
What makes the current world struggle (and Saker’s reading of it) so interesting is that it is a cosmic war between the dream of the hegemony of the collective human ego and the evolutionary emergence of a new and globe embracing encounter with the divine creator. Crudely put, the Creator has said, “human evil, your time is up I am taking over now.” This cosmic conflict must of course take the form of a struggle between human righteousness and human evil. I am aware of two languages for interpreting the cosmic determination at work here. One is that of the Jungian school with their concept of the emerging World Self. Another, you may have heard of, is the whole 2012 Mayan calendar and the time of the birth of the Mayan 5th Sun. Both these wisdom traditions articulate a clear and understandable time frame for a revolutionary emergence of world integrity starting in 2013. This is really the most glorious thing that could possibly happen to humanity. However it does guarantee an increasingly intensifying world crisis. The Christian tradition has a term for it “Apocalypse.’ We all choose our roles do we not? The thing I most appreciate about the Saker (and the majority of those who post here) is the quality of responsiveness to this divine emergence. A creative new unfolding of the relations between spirituality and politics is decisive in this larger process. Please keep writing Grieved. I enjoy paying close attention to your posts.
Beautiful ! I totally agree that we’re going through a time in which politics and spirituality become inseparable. The symbolism of the cross, the Horizontal dimension intersecting with the Vertical one, was never as clear as it is now; love God above all else, and love your neighbour as you love thyself !
The YPG kurds are in panic mode and hence asked for protection from the Syrian government to protect the borders but they haven’t accepted Syrian authority over the town itself. That’s an important distinction.
Which might explain why Damascus is in no hurry to accept such a deal. US dropped the treacherous but pathologically retarded YPG rats once Turkey started the invasion (saying “Turkey has the right to defend itself” )and will most certainly do so with the SDF cutthroats once they reach Manbijh (which is an Arab town btw, recently ethnically cleansed by the SDF Turds).
One gets the clear impression that this turn of events was what Russia, Turkey and Iran discussed before Turkey got the green light to send in fighter jets and mercenaries.
Once the opportunistic rats accept overall central government authority in Afrin, Turkey will concentrate on Manbijh.
Because, saving Kurds at this moment will not help Syria, it will just preserve the status quo, which is to the benefit of the Americans.
I dunno why the hostility to the Kurds. Everyone in the region have their own agenda, and why should the Kurds somehow be an exception? It’s not like they owe the central government anything. They’ve historically been oppressed by the central government, not as bad as in Turkey maybe but that’s not saying much. And when things went pear shaped they were basically told “You’re on your own”. For good and sufficient reasons because the Syrian army was under pressure big time–but now you want to complain that they took the government at its word? It wasn’t the Syrian government that took down ISIS in the north. They had to save themselves with whatever help they could scrape together (which turned out to be the Americans). Now they want to be independent and it’s “Oh, no, they’re so opportunistic!” Hey, if the Syrian government had treated them like citizens back when they were under the ISIS gun maybe they’d feel more like citizens. If the Syrian government had treated them like citizens back before the war, maybe they’d feel more like citizens. But as things stand, they don’t, and an even-handed person would have to concede they have little reason to. Gonna take some fence-mending to get them on side.
Maybe if Russia had come in earlier they would have asked the Russians for help instead of the Americans, but unfortunately their key battles happened before the Russians got involved.
All in all, it’s really a pity what’s happening with them and I hope they do cut a deal with the Russians and the Syrian government for autonomy and co-operation. Especially since we sometimes lose sight of the overall goal of all these international shenanigans for we, the people: Good governance. Freedom, equality, peace, widely shared prosperity, that kind of thing. The reason for opposing the US ultimately is that it is systematically destroying that kind of thing on a huge scale worldwide. And on that yardstick, the Syrian Kurds (but not the Iraqi ones) are by far the best people in the whole damn Middle East. It would be very good for the region (and a nightmare for the United States) if the Kurdish system were to spread throughout the area. So it will be saddening if they stay on the Americans’ hook and hence at odds with those opposing American imperialism. Also weird–they’re fundamentally not compatible with the US approach, like, at all; I’ve never expected that alliance to last.
Yes, indeed, … “May God help them”. However, I suspect recent legislative changes in Russia are designed to facilitate an appropriate ‘at-arms-length’ response along the lines of the US’s BlackWater etc.
As for your points (1-10): indeed, and with perhaps one or two exceptions, they effectively equate to “Libya” which Dmitry Medvedev helped engineer with his apparent naivety (or was it two French helicopter carriers?).
The only counter scenario to your outline coming to mind is perhaps to frame the whole exercise as a cynical coordinated “NATO” effort to move south and entangle Russia for broader geopolitical aims. After all: US + Turkey = NATO.
I suspect you are largely correct in your analysis — however, what if (by whatever turn of events in the ME and elsewhere) there is in fact a deep NATO-level strategy in effect with the Turks and US playing adversarial ‘games’ with the Kurds at present to further a broader geopolitical agenda? Where to thence?
With the flow-control of Turk Stream; the Bosphorus Strait (Sea of Marmara) shipping route; and the Syrian border (north) in Erdogan’s hand it is starting to read for Putin like a rerun of Odysseus’ journey between Scylla and Charybdis.
There are only national geopolitical ‘interests’ at this level and Erdogan (or his successor if he is suddenly ‘neutralized’) could turn on a dime leaving Russia with some rather hard decisions to make. Access to Russian economic markets (Turkish tomatoes and Russian tourism) is a strong dynamic for ‘rational’ behavior — but will it be strong enough under escalating global polarization on many levels? Assad may indeed have to go at some point (and he’d probably be happy to under the right circumstances) — the question is when and (face saving for all parties) how? The ‘voice’ of the missing global actor is China (and reconstruction with devaluing usd$ reserves).
This is surely Putin’s last term as president (one can read it in his body language I suggest); and Assad stepping aside (for a suitable alternative) in this time-frame is not beyond the possible — especially as now he has effectively politically outlived all the idiot-nobodies on the KSA payroll who chanted “Assad Must Go!” into any and every media microphone and front page headline they could find. I note Tillerson (who no doubt has his own Exon pay-check waiting for the oilfields in NE Syria) has not actually said the actual Assad curse yet, although he’s mouthed it in every possible way using alternative word/phrases. Fear? Rat cunning? …
If the agreement between the US+EU and Iran is scrapped; and Minsk2 is clearly dead and being buried as we write; the Egyptians able to vote for anyone as long as his name is Sisi; US trade wars with China in full swing; and the Western advanced economies so far beyond ‘market capitalism’ that it is now clearly a topic for the history department — and North and South Korea talking of reunification! — then I’d suggest it is beyond anyone to foresee which way the present precarious balance may tip.
Indeed: “May God help all of us!” untangle this vicious web which has been for decades weaving itself around the two core blind-spots within contemporary Western cultures — fear and deceit. They are beyond ‘strategies’ — they sins in the true sense of the word. And the widespread misery associated with global polarized wealth gaps and escalating trends is the clear evidence that something is fundamentally wrong and essentially unsustainable.
addendum (same Anon as above)
“Eurkish forces in Syria will go after Kurdish militias in Manbij after finishing the operation in Afrin, President Erdogan said. Ankara intends to continue fighting the Kurds all the way to the border with Iraq, he added. . . . Escalating the situation on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the incursion will not be limited to Afrin, which is located in north-western Syria near the Turkish border, and that the Turkish troops will later advance on other Kurdish areas in Syria.”
https://www.rt.com/news/417041-erdogan-manbij-terrorists-afrin/
Which by way of outcome means: (a) NATO owns the border; (b) the Kurds and Syria have been neutralised (it’s another Golan Heights); and (c) Syrian oil will flow north again straight into Erdogan’s pocket, and then on southwards again to Occupied Palestine.
And Putin will be focused on (a) football games; (b) sanctions risk; (c) Turk Stream risk; and (d) the SE Ukraine region.
And asked the US to get its forces out of the way before we arrive.. things are about to be interesting, let me grab some popcorn
This looks like a mere threat to get the US worried. I don;t think Erdogan will confront the US in Manbij. Too dangerous, and pointless, since the Kurds have now understood the US was using them (demos in Kobane today: http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/01/watch-as-kurds-finally-begin-to-realize.html) and have been frightened into begging Assad for help:
“We call out for the Syrian government to protect Afrin and Syria’s borders by deploying the SAF to protect Afrin borders… to carry out its sovereign duties. This part of Syria is being subjected to outside aggression by Turkey, t which threatens the territorial integrity of Syria and the lives of civilian citizens…” (Test of the call from Afrin administration here: http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/01/after-calling-for-help-then-retracting.html)
The canaries in the mines are chirping loudly in Novorossiya. Even the idiot with the big head, Hug, has grudgingly noted something is amiss. Google translate is your friend. Here is Yandex translation for the link:
http://antimaydan.info/2018/01/obse_gryadet_bolshaya_vojna.html
Text below photos, Yandex translated
OSCE: there is a GREAT WAR/ according to the latest reports, the situation in the Donbass once again heating up.
“SMM OSCE: “the Parties are preparing for a larger offensive in February.
First Deputy head of the Special monitoring mission of the OSCE in Ukraine Alexander Hug said the failure of attempts to produce mine clearance and to take weapons in the Donbas and believes that this may indicate the impending escalation of the conflict. Notice he rarely says ‘ukriane’, it’s always ‘the parties’.
This was reported in the microblog Twitter OSCE.
“Hug: Failed attempts to hold a clearance, to withdraw weapons and to dissolve the forces and means, as well as ongoing training are the signals that serve as an early warning that the parties are preparing for more confrontation, instead of stop the violence”, – stated in the message.
Hg: hand digging everywhere – in the literal and figurative sense.
Hug from 21 to 25 January, is on a visit in the East of Ukraine. As reported, during the visit he will join patrols of OSCE monitors along the line of contact, as well as conduct a number of briefings.
Hug: not only does not work on clearance, they actually lay more mines, sometimes even within areas where we would have breeding capabilities.
Hug: Observation of SMM allow now to warn them in advance that threatens to escalate the situation and so to all those who decides and plays a role in this conflict, you must listen to each other, to prevent an even greater tragedy.”
According to the latest reports, the situation in the Donbass once again heating up.
According to the intelligence service of the Armed forces of the DNI, the number of units of the APU, located in the zone of hostilities, a week ago had received instructions about the actual ending of the regime “Christmas truce” and the strengthening of the advanced units. In particular, this was the 128th, ogpp (a separate mountain-infantry brigade) and the 80th oaembr (airmobile brigade).
In addition, there is substantial accumulation of forces and means of the APU in Mariupol direction. As noted in the command of the armed forces of the DNI:
“In the area of responsibility of the 28th hombre revealed the arrival of units of the 93rd Ombre. Brigade artillery moved secretly at night and camouflaged in forest plantations and territories of the hangars at 22-23 km from the line of contact near the settlement Free. Units of the 1st and 2nd battalions of the 93rd brigade completed the placement of positions in conjunction with the 28th brigade…”
Soon appeared in the media and reported that to Mariupol from the Kherson region there arrived two convoys of equipment from the 56, apbr, and two battalions of the living force. In the first column includes units of the brigade artillery group under the command of a war criminal Geronova S. C. the Second column was headed by sacobia – Gerasimenko D. D.
In this case separately noted that the division under the command Gerasimenko D. D. had fought at Mariupol direction, and therefore knows the area of action.
In addition, division 38 anti-aircraft missile regiment and 560 separate anti-aircraft missile battalion moved into battle positions in 35 kilometers North-West of Donetsk in 15 km to the North from Mariupol, respectively.
All these data suggest that the enemy is preparing an offensive on Mariupol direction.
The second likely direction of the impact remains Svetlodarsk arc, where the armed forces command and so has considerable force.
This map gives an idea of what is arrayed against Novorossiya. Of course, NAF units are not highlighted.
https://militarymaps.info/
US having failed in Syria, they will next push orcland to attack Novorossiya. Novorossiya can and will defend itself and can do so without the North Wind blowing but the lack of said wind will mean nothing to The West, Russia will be blamed for any reverses the orcs have in their attempt to conquer Novorossiya and more and ever more draconian sanctions will be piled on Russia.
Timing for the enhancement of operations against Novorossiya is unknown, conjecture is either Olympics as in ’08 or March during the elections in Russia.
In my opinion, the North Wind will not be needed if and until nato/US comes running to support the orcs if/as they are defeated. At that point all bets are off. This time there will be no stand down to let the western golden pheasants withdraw and there will be no quiet and clandestine release of western military prisoners, everything will be shown in living colour.
Auslander
Author
Blue Cloud https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0797XJM91 A pleasant little adventure of a young collie, told in her words.
Never The Last One http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
“This time there will be no stand down to let the western golden pheasants withdraw and there will be no quiet and clandestine release of western military prisoners, everything will be shown in living colour.”
This should be the case (and should have been the case last round) — but I suspect things will just continue overall in a grinding stalemate balance under orders from ‘above’ on both sides.
If the orcs do an all out attack instead of the continuous nibbling at the ‘gray zone’ as for the last year, then the leash will be slipped and NAF will drive them back. I’m sure NAF has been told not to go beyond the original borders of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblast.
If this comes to pass, the crimes of the orcs will be shown to the world as the mass graves are excavated live on camera. No way to deny what has happened then.
Auslander
Auslander, I can understand NAF being told not to liberate all the areas considered Novorussia, and definitely being told not to march on Kiev, but why not liberate Kharvov and Zaporizhzhya? Both Russia and Novorussia are going to be damned no matter what happens.
Steven, perhaps because the plan is to make them work for themselves. They can do it on their own. From the past readings I conclude that at least those two and possibly more regions are preparing for the blow. Orcs know it. This may be one of many reasons, why orcs haven’t attacked yet.
Auslander,
The map links to the wrong one.
As for the timing, the Olympics seem unlikely: the last time was because Putin was away in Beijing, but he is not going to SK. The election period seems more likely – I’d say the tail-end of the campaign, for hoped-for maximum disruption.
Click on Новороссия above Сирия. t then goes to the Novorussia map.
With the confluence of the new legislation in Kiev, the increased shelling and movement of units to the front lines, and the arrival of new American weaponry and trainers (I know, they were there before, but not so openly or in these numbers), it seems very likely that a major offensive is will be launched in February (before the elections). Further supporting this would be the recently discovered and thwarted Ukie operation in Lughansk designed to throw their defenses into disarray, and the passing of PMC legislation by Russia. It would appear Russia has learned a trick or two from the US, and has decided should local forces begin having trouble, they can be reinforced by “private” forces rather than Russia have to turn to direct intervention, something they’ve carefully avoided.
It seems most likely a major offensive will occur prior to the Russian election, in hopes of putting Putin in a no-win situation and weakening him, with the idea that the World Cup will be coming along a couple months later, so that in the event (from the US point of view) things are not going well at all, they can use threats of disrupting the Cup as leverage to attempt to force a cease-fire once again.
Nice article Saker. Do not disregard the small nations of Nato. We felt at one stag a need to part of an umbrella. We were lucky to get rid of Soviet forces from Bornholm after the end of WWII. Well out they went, and it was not an altogether happy experience at all, the Soviets seeing us more as collaborators than people fighting for their freedom. It gets complex here, Danish foreign policy in the thirties being very disarmament like, thanks Liberal Party, on the other hand the Danish landscape as such was hardly defensible in modern warfare. We did try with our measly resources to resist, but the Danish king faced with a bombing of Copenhagen laid down resistance in face of the inevitable and thus saved thousand of lives.
Come end of WWII , Denmark is strategically placed as the throughfare of any Soviet fleet as it has to go through the Belts, Store Belt or Lille Belt, as they only are deep enough. Those are internal Danish waters. Opened by treaty to all. Which mean a disguised Soviet landing force could sneak in and overwhelm our defenses in a matter of hours. I was there and then. We knew from In tel that likely 2 Polish divisions would make landfall on the south coast of Lolland. We would likely repel them and retreat having taken heavy casualties, because of no air deterrence. The next wave would be Russian Soviet forces, quite another animal, and harder to break. We would not have the power to that, and would retreat back to Se eland. Not blowing the bridges. I repeat not blowing the Bridges. “After all Denmark has to function after a Soviet occupation” was the political motive. I resigned my commission and went wild disillusioned with this.
So my choice was to die with my men for no reason other than making good nice news. ( in 1979 we rigged the whole bloody lot to blow, illegal, in the face of the Soviet invasion/liberation of Afghanistan.)
Both Denmark and Sweden are fiercely independent nations that regard our sovereignty as extremely important. We are also nations in the forefront in international cooperation. as seen through the EU, howeverer much you dislike it in the US.
I will not even to flail the US as a failed state, it it is just a bully running wild, hopefully running out of breath and recognizing that the world was a too large gambit and it will run sour.
I have been part of this circus, I have killed people, and sit today with th horrors of that. Proxy. It is thank God long behind me and if whatever amendments can be made , I have made them and are ready for the big dive.
“Both Denmark and Sweden are fiercely independent nations that regard our sovereignty as extremely important. We are also nations in the forefront in international cooperation. as seen through the EU, howeverer much you dislike it in the US” Which year are you talking about? As I could see now neither Dernmark nor Sweden are independent right now. They both are US/NATO lackeys. This became obvious to me when flying through Denmark and watching (at the airports) this young Danish boys coming from Afghanistan with amputated limbs. Sweden no even use to discuse calling itself “neutrual” and participating in NATO drills in its own soil thats hypocrit! in my eyes.
@Oscar. Approved 100% (as you can guess from my previous posts). “There is something rotten in the state of Denmark”. The Danish military amputee you saw at the airport suggests it may be the smell of gangrene from Danish soldiers joining NATZO “operations” in Afghanistan, as you saw, and now in Syria. Myself I suspect it is also a whiff of “our” gas under the Arctic ice; Russian technology is “an existential threat” to the “national integrity” AZC gas companies (see Scott’s article, Made in Russia).
NG Maroudas. Yes. The view of this amputated or disabled Danish boys (after their Afghanistan “visit) very much confused me. A Danish family does not use to have many kids (like the rest of Scandinavia my impression) one or two. Three children is a rather large unusual family. That means that their probably only one kid would be disabled for the rest of his life destroying not only the boy-soldiers life but his parents as well, fighting for what? Was, is Afghanistan (or Iraq, or Syria, or Lybia or, or..) threathening Danmark? This shows how corrupt and sold the elites of these countries (I include Norway and Sweden) are.
This shows how corrupt and sold the elites of these countries (I include Norway and Sweden) are.
Conversely, it shows how stupid and brainwashed the youth of these countries are, to volunteer to fight for the Anglo-Zionist Empire. All they have to do is refuse to get on the airplane. F***ing idiots.
@Abe,
Sorry my friend you lack knowledge of history. The countries of Benelux were overrun by Wermacht in hours. France, which on the paper had equal if not bigger strength than Wermacht fell in about 7days.
Sorry, but your history is a bit incorrect.
Belgium surrendered 18 days after the German invasion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium_in_World_War_II
The Netherlands surrendered after 5 days, following the bombing of Rotterdam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands_in_World_War_II
After the German invasion of the west on May 10, 2940, the recently movie-tized evacuation of Dunkirk was between May 26 and June 4, or beginning some 16 days after the attack. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkirk_evacuation. After Dunkirk, the French tried to establish a defensive line to the south protecting Paris, but a German attack that began June 5th broke through this line. The Armisitice that created Vichy France was signed on June 22nd. Thus France fought for approximately 6 weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France
Well Anon, you make me work for it, and I am glad that my old memory is still working. Here is one thing and I quote:
“The German invasion of Denmark was the fighting that followed the German army crossing the Danish border on 9 April 1940 by land, sea and air.
Lasting approximately six hours, the German ground campaign against Denmark was one of the shortest military operations of the Second World War.[9]”
Her is the link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_invasion_of_Denmark_(1940)
I am not going to look for the others, perhaps Germans stopped after Denmark for couple of days to have some coffee.
Now Jugoslavia and Greeks resisted much longer in comparison.
@Anonious. Your last sentence just above this one, prompts me to cut and paste something that I have just now posted to Bundy on SyrPer: @Bundy. Thank you for that photo of a Hezb soldier standing in snow up to his waist, guarding the mountain passes against the NATZO hordes. Brought tears to my eyes, because it reminded me of the newsreels which my father took me to see in WW2, of Greek soldiers in the snow, fighting the NAZI hordes. The Greeks and the Serbs fought much harder than the British or the French or the Danes or the Norwegians, and Hitler lost the best part of that summer diverting the Nazi army to quell them. Which is why the Nazis lost the Russian campaign to General Winter — and to Russian courage and Russian technology. And now I have lived long enough to see Syria and Hezb fighting bravely against the Anglo-Zio-Capitalist menace, and other countries beginning to join them. And once again in my lifetime, I see Russia coming to save the free world. Because it was the Anglo-Zio-Capitalists who built up Hitler and the NAZI menace — gave them money and arms and diplomatic protection in order that Hitler should invade Russia in the year before WW2 — just like the A-Z-C built up the NATZO menace after WW2.
@Dr.
If I may, my grandmother’s brother (on my mother’s side) fought in the successfull campain against Italians in Albania. It’s a known fact, that Greek army was underequipped, but thanks to their courage and sacrifice defeated 0.5mln strong Italian army. On the other hand contrary to popular stories, my father said, that as soon as stukas appeared over the Thessaly English army run for their lives to Egipt as fast as they could.
I am back to dwell on the western propaganda, which culminates the outright lies like “the USA won the war”, may I repeat it was the Russians who won it. Germans, if I am not mistaken had only two divisions in the West and their order was: to resist somewhat, but make sure the Russians are held at the door.
Having said all that, the business of war reporting is very interesting, for those who are interested I would like to state little known fact that Germans had very strong group in the city of Breslau – Wrocław today). Germans called it Festung Breslau, which lasted one month past the Germans signed the capitulation in Reichstag. Thousands Russian (100-150,000) and Germans soldiers died fighting for that Festung, just so Poles can lie today saying the Russians did not do free them, right.
Having said that, I would like to point you to an article:
https://www.answers.com/Q/How_did_Germany_defeat_France_in_World_War_2
And to the word game, at some point he says “The simple answer is that in May, 1940, Nazi Germany deliberately violated the neutrality of Belgium and the Netherlands by running their Army through them and around the northwestern end of the fabled French Maginot defensive line, punched a hole through the weaker French and British lines, then surged straight on to Paris so that the French Army was outflanked and rolled up.”
Key word is “running through them” see what I am saying?
Some sources say that it took 11 days to defeat France, some three weeks. So, which one is it? I say ask the Germans and they will say they just rolled over them, and it simply took some time to do the rolling.
So, the business of the date of signing “capitulation papers” means nothing Germans overrun them and the others run for their dear lives.
Here is another one, somewhere down he says “French and British” had defense pact with Poland and here is a clincher “which they honored” What a pile of crock. They never moved a finger to help Poland fight the Germans in September of 1939.
Well anyway, I can go on and on on the BS that’s pointed at us.
Sorry guys, for the bad news
“The simple answer is that in May, 1940, Nazi Germany deliberately violated the neutrality of Belgium and the Netherlands”
Actually the Netherlands violated their own neutrality by opening their airspace to allied planes. And Breslau fell before capitulation, not one month after it.
My apologies, my memory failed me. After some checking on the net, I stand corrected. May 6th, 45 is the day Festung Breslau capitulated, and the losses were not as high as I thought. Large never the less.
Both Denmark and Sweden are fiercely independent nations
And members of the EU and NATO?
Sorry, but this is nonsense.
You are a subservient US colony.
Cheers,
The Saker
Its easier to keep a colony if you’ve convinced the inhabitants that they are a fiercely independent nation.
:)
@Anon, Saker (above). Wow! at last I understand Goethe’s aphorism: “None so enslaved as those who believe themselves free”.
That is correct. During the two world wars, Sweden was officially neutral, but was very much pro-German, supplying Germany with most of it’s iron ore. After the end of the Second World War, Sweden was virtually part of NATO, pretending it was neutral. As for little Denmark, it’s not even worth discussing. It does as told.
They do make some excellent bacon and other products like Royal Copenhagen porcelain in Denmark, BF! And I’ve heard that it is mostly flat and without any natural embankments that would protect it from forces coming by sea. BTW my late Uncle Ted was Danish, emigrating to the US at the age of 14. So I know some stuff…..Hee Hee!
In both world wars the Us/Uk provided the enemy with vital materials in order to prolong the profitable war. Sweden acted in concert with the angloamericans even though for their own reasons. Had Sweden resisted the Nazis by refusing them the iron ore, the British would have pretended to be on Sweden’s side but betrayed and deliberately lost Sweden to the Nazi side, just like Britain deliberately lost Norway for exactly the same reason. Both Neville Chamberlain and Churchill betrayed Norway. If the Swedish resisting the Nazis had happened there is a distinct probability that many swedes would later have fought on the eastern front. Remember that Finland embarked on a joint imperialist adventure against the USSR after the initial phase of the war. So say and critisize Finlands own veterans from that time.
Would a swedish participation in operation Barbarossa have been good for anybody?
And I repeat that Britain was not to trust which many other nations have experienced whether or not they understood it. They much earlier betrayed Sweden during Charles XII’s era when the British encouraged and sponsored Sweden against Russia but then went behind Swedens back and thereby got rid of the Swedish rival just sitting on the fence. Albions preferred position. The chinese reformer Sun Yat Sen understood the British better than did the European rivals. He warned small nations from being Englands allies and adviced them to remain neutral. Or else England would sacrifice their allies as bartering material making deals with bigger rivals. Norway has become an ally with the angloempire because they never understood that they were betrayed by them. Churchill tricked Hitler into occupying Norway by pretending to take Norway. Churchill didnt want Hitler weakened before the eastern war, since that was the main reason why the British elites had spent several generations on building up the nazis.
The British would not have allowed Sweden to deny Hitler the iron ore. Neutral was fine, but under Nazi occupation would have been ok too.
Not to mention the US seems to find Danish crazies as their NATO spokesmen.
Independent, my ass but as the Finns call them (in humour) “Stupid Swedes”.
Ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yP9Qt-bSz40
As for Sweden, hmm, seems they never got over Peter the Great handing them their ass. Their ruling morons are always stiring toxic crap over Russia. The Swedes problem is internal s they re sliwly starting to admit.
Then there is Norway with huge stockpiles of US mexhanised Infantry vehicles in Trondheim. Pity but their choice. Pretty city though.
Even Finish politicians crap on over Russia, so greatful given the history and being neighbours. Don’t think most of the public buy into the paranoia and their President is level headed.
“As for Sweden, hmm, seems they never got over Peter the Great handing them their ass. Their ruling morons are always stirring toxic crap over Russia. The Swedes’ problem is internal as they are slowly starting to admit.”
Haha, agreed. Sweden’s most notorious crackpot King Charles XII was sadly able to escape from the utter rout at the battlefield of Poltava to Turkey — he would have become “top entertainment” at the victory celebrations, had the Russians caught him. Eventually, the Turks found out they too had had enough of this certified Swedish piece of garbage.
Ever since, Sweden is and remains a small state, forever looking for a big, solid, dependable ally to stir up trouble (or “seek protection”, if you like) when dealing with Russia. Put bluntly, the Russians kicked Sweden out from the club of Great Powers and took her place — not nice. Our ruling morons forever stirring toxic crap over Russia are the result.
The most silly and ridiculous thing about this whole buggered obsession with Russia is the tacit assumption that “we have something that makes these brutes and savages extremely jealous, covetous, and dangerous not just to ourselves, but to the great and glorious West in its breath-taking, magnificent entirety”. Well, it’s quite entertaining watching the accelerating rot and decay of the great and glorious West and the impact hereof upon the self-confidence of its dwellers while Russia is enjoying her top class leadership.
Subservient US colonies indeed and going down the drain accordingly as they should. Our pathetic local ‘elites’ seem to be very adamant not to abandon Massa in Massa’s end times.
Den Lille Abe
I don’t think that Scandinavian countries have anything to fear from Russia. Why should Russia invade them ? What do they have that Russia does not ? Even Norway will run out of oil in the North Sea in about 23 years.
Denmark, like most European countries is a vassal of the US. Why else are Danish politicians (along with their Polish colleagues) trying to block Nord Stream 2?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Denmarks-New-Law-Could-Block-Nord-Stream-2.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-denmark-pipeline/denmark-passes-law-that-could-ban-russian-pipeline-from-going-through-its-waters-idUSKBN1DU19L
Do you remember former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen? With such Nordic sounding surnames it’s always difficult to tell the nationality, but thanks to the internet I was able to find out that he’s Danish.
Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm. This is a policy document that was prepared
in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle (Prince of Darkness) for Benjamin Netanyahu, the then
PM of Israel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm
Clean Break or Dirty War?
https://www.irmep.org/PDF/3-27-2003_Clean_Break_or_Dirty_War.pdf
Very interesting links, thanks, Azorka1861.
ACB is pure concentrated evil. It clearly demonstrates that US wars – Syria being specially stressed as slated for destruction – are all for the benefit of the Zionists.
Particularly striking are the charts assessing damage to the US versus gain for Israel: maximum gains for Israel coincides with maximum loss and damage for the US, such as enslaving Congress, or destabilising the ME.
And yet the US goes ahead and does their bidding.
And the dozing or ignorant American people continue to think these monsters are their compatriots, that they share American “values”…
Hi Saker, thanks for the article – its a perfect complement to Aram’s – I really appreciate the clarity – I was so shocked to hear the other day that Turkey was bringing back 25,000 SFA – good terrorists – And I can well understand that Assad cannot forgive Erdogan for the deeds that Turkey has done in the past few years –
your paragraph here —“… And yes, the next logical step will be to approach Israel and the KSA and give them security guarantees in exchange for their assurances to stop creating chaos and wars on behalf of the USA. I know, I will get a lot of flak for saying this, but there *are* people in Israel and, possibly, Saudi Arabia who also understand the difference between “bad” and “worse”….”
There are thousands of Israelis that hate Netanyahu – there are demonstrations every night in Israel – and many Israelis – not the majority for sure – but many that want peace for Palestine –
The two state solution is gone I hope and with some international oversight – Israel could get off the terrorist list – one of the worst in the world history I think – I wonder if Russia thinks about this –
many Israelis – not the majority for sure – but many that want peace for Palestine
They could demonstrate their desire for peace by refusing to serve in the Israeli Occupation Forces in the West Bank, since Israel has universal military conscription. Every year, a few tens of them do. The rest of them are clearly full of s**t.
Hi Saker, one more question – if the Ukraine declares that its indeed Russia now that its fighting – will Russia go into the Ukraine, or will it be the same – ? I guess Russia might think that Ukraine is not their boss – calling the shots in the decision making – so just continue the same – and Canada has given lethal weapons – or is it sold ? to Kiev- how could Kiev buy lethal weapons ? I thought Kiev was broke ?
Canada’s Foreign Minister – Ukraine Chrysta Freeland – with a definitely made-up name – is from a Ukrainian Nazi family – skeletons in the closet – https://consortiumnews.com/2017/02/27/a-nazi-skeleton-in-the-family-closet/
Canada (especially Alberta) is full of ex-Ukrainians. Votes = policy.
Most of German Nazis escaped to South America or US after WW2. Ukrainian Nazis and Bandera followers mostly
escaped to Canada where even today they have a very powerful lobby that makes a substantial impact in Canada’s political life, especially when in comes to anti Russian hysteria.
“Most of German Nazis escaped to South America or US after WW2” They did not “escape”, particularly those that ended up in the US. They were BROUGHT there, mainly Scientists and Gestapo guys. Werner von Braun comes to mind, among others. Most of them went to Texas. Their families still living there, quite confortable, I would say.
Maybe I should type ‘escaped from Red Army’, just to make it more clear.
The non-Ukrainian escapees were given a warm welcome in Argentina, Uruguay and Panama at least, and some prospered greatly there. I was once casually acquainted with the son of such an escapee whose family owned vast tracts of land in the Argentine. He seemed pleasant enough as a person, I have no idea what his father had got up to apart from fleeing with some war booty.
If I may, I do not think so. Russia will not want to alienate these people, whom it considers brethren.
I believe that conflict if it happens will be handled by Novorosians.
I realize this is of topic, the link below is for One minion regarding South America (SA). In the 60’s there were many stories about Werhmacht being whisked to the SA. Particularly Bolivia and Argentina.
Check out this article with pictures:
https://wwiiafterwwii.wordpress.com/2016/03/07/the-stahlhelm-in-latin-america-after-wwii/
Add Chile to your list.
A look at the Chilean military uniform may bring back memories of other theaters of war. Check for yourself:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chile_-_Escuela_de_Suboficiales_Ej%C3%A9rcito_-_19-09-2014.jpg
https://wwiiafterwwii.wordpress.com/2016/03/07/the-stahlhelm-in-latin-america-after-wwii/
http://theduran.com/storm-clouds-gather-ukraine/
has economic analysis
a usa military person was surprised ukraine was making money still manufacturing t34 tanks for sale but not putting them to the front line.and wants free arms supplies..yet again today ukraine is bemoaning lack of IMF money…mainly over two years it has not put into place a revision of anticorruption laws and systems as was required by the IMF
“The article by the Moon of Alabama discusses this extensively, and analyses in detail and once more in a masterly way the all too obvious split in Washington between pro-Turkish and pro-Kurdish factions.
I have for some time presumed that are different opinions in the White House and especially in the Pentagon with regards to Turkey and the Kurds. The realist-hawks and NATO proponents are on Turkey’s side while the neoconservative “liberal” forces are on the Kurdish side. Yesterday the NYT noted the split:
The White House sent out a message aimed at mollifying Turkey’s president on Tuesday, suggesting that the United States was easing off its support for the Syrian Kurds.That message was quickly contradicted by the Pentagon, which said it would continue to stand by the Kurds, even as Turkey invaded their stronghold in northwestern Syria.
The former director of the Council of Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, takes the pro-Kurdish position. Linking to the NYT piece above he says:
Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass – 12:00 PM – 24 Jan 2018
Pentagon right; US should be working w Kurds in Syria for moral and strategic reasons alike. A break with Erdogan’s Turkey is inevitable, if not over this than over other differences. Time for DoD to come up with plan to substitute for Incirlik access.It is not only the Incirlik air-base which is irreplaceable for NATO’s southern command. Turkey also controls the access to the Black Sea and has thereby a say over potential NATO operations against southern Russia and Crimea.
In a Bloomberg oped former U.S. Supreme Commander of NATO Stavridis takes a pro-Turkish position:
At the moment, Washington is trying to sail a narrow passage between supporting its erstwhile Kurdish combat partners and not blowing up the relationship with Turkey. But the room for maneuver is closing and a choice is looming. What should the U.S. do?
…
[W]e simply cannot afford to “lose” Turkey.
…
The Turks have a strong and diversified economy, a young and growing population, and have stood alongside the U.S. for much of the post-World War II era. Their importance both regionally and globally will continue to grow in the 21st century. Yes, U.S. officials can and should criticize Turkish actions where they violate international law or human rights — but in private, at least at this stage of the situation.
…
[T]he overall U.S. strategic interest lies in keeping Turkey aligned with NATO and the trans-Atlantic community. It would be a geopolitical mistake of near-epic proportions to see Turkey drift out of that orbit and end up aligned with Russia and Iran in the Levant.”
“In passing the article in the Moon of Alabama also confirms what I have said previously, that the US’s Plan C – the plan to use the Kurds to destabilise President Assad’s government in Syria by carving out a Kurdish statelet in northern Syria – was not properly discussed within the US government or agreed within the administration, but was cooked up instead by a small but influential group of Washington officials who did not discuss it with their seniors in the State Department, the Pentagon and the White House”
http://theduran.com/end-afrin-crisis-kurds-assad-help/
“Kurdish authorities in Syria’s northern Afrin enclave have called on Syrian troops to defend the region’s border, as a Turkish offensive continues there.” (Duran link)
Equally, the Syrian president could call on ‘Syrian’ Kurds in the Afrin enclave to defend Syria against Turkey to the last man. Problem solved.
I am convinced that the only explanation of Kurdish actions is that influential people at the top are US assets. TREASON is not foreign to them after all
So, don’t expect them to do the rational thing which means a lot of pain for the poor people of the region, including themselves
“…influential people at the top are US assets. ” — well that goes for Jordan and Palestine, so why not Kurds?
You’re right. They’ll likely arrange something to coincide with the soccer thing. Hopefully, the Russians know this. They need some kind of 3rd man (a good one, not an american proxy) in this. Some perceived outsider needs to split the middle.
Look, president vlad Putin.
Just in case, pls prepare one or two contingency plans to apply down the border with a lightning speed in June-July when the Football World Cup begins and takes place.
One must have in mind that good old USofA did not qualify for the Cup, neither did Ukraine.
But Russia, of course, yes.
We recall you are simply ‘BadVlad’. And we do wish to see and watch a World cup with Messi, Cristiano and everybody else in perfect peace.
Syria, the war that must be won. I have said this for several years. The first Syrian War has been lost by the war-starters, US-Israel-SA-Qatar-Turkey. It had the CIA, State Dept., CentCom fully invested in it. But they lost it.
So, the same group, less Turkey, has begun the second Syrian War. Again, this group will losee this war. They have less proxies by a factor of 3-4 than in 2015. They are trying desperately to use the Kurds mixed with leftover ISIS fighters and some tribal Arabs out in the Eastern region.
This is untenable as a winning force. Even with 14 US bases, the war cannot be won. Thus, it will devolve into an insurgency-style war waged against Turkey in the North and Damascus Syrian government in the West and all over the regions the Syrian Army holds or will hold.
As for Ukraine, the US may launch another full assault on Donbass but I don’t think it will be as large an attack as possible. The calculus is to force Russia to invade to save Donbass. The US military knows Russia will crush the Ukraine military if everything is thrown at Donbass. So, the US will lose its proxy in a matter of days if the Russians sense it is an all out frontal war. Thus, a less-than-all force of Ukies will be sent to be sacrificed in the goal to demonize Russia for responding and wiping out the Ukie forces used. More sanctions is the goal. Everyone knows the Russians would never lose this war, even if NATO threw in 50,000 troops from its vassal forces.
What do we see if we look past the geopolitical goal? The facts on the ground of the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, and the obvious intent of the US, Israel, EU and NATO show to us that Russia and its missile defenses, EW systems, and uniques missile and aerospace machines, combined with superior Intel and Generalship is defeating the Empire.
And this defeat is being accomplished without a direct confrontation of nation against nation. Russia is not attacking. It is defending. Russia is not threatening. It is thought of as a threat but it is not threatening anyone, anywhere. Also, Russia is using the most minimal force structure in both Syria and Donbass.
These absolutely clear specifics about the confrontations in the ME and along Russia’s border indicate the true strength of the Russian Federation. Basically, with one hand tied behind its back, Russia is holding off and defeating the Hegemon’s coalition and proxy armies, winning the conflicts, leading the diplomatic solutions, designing the future of both regions and attracting more clients for its superior weapons systems and gas and oil industry, and agricultural exports of grains.
Putin might think that the longer the Hegemon causes chaos the better it is for Russian economics. But what he knows is this is not just the here and now of military vs military.
The full weight of oncoming history, Eurasia-BRI, is a tsunami of hope and expectation of 4.5 billion people who see their own fate emerging from poverty, developing into modernity, and surging into a wealthier future based on holding their own birthright sovereignty and culture.
The civilizational war the Hegemon and coalition is waging is untenable in the regions of the other civilizations of the globe. No empire has ever ruled the globe as the Hegemon intends. This is the quicksand into which the US military insists on sending its full weight. And there is no hope of success fighting in such an unstable battlezone. The Empire can never win in either Syria or Russian Ukraine.
And perpetual chaos-making is self-defeating. Ultimately, there has to be stability for economic projects to succeed. And after all, Empire is about economics (gas, oil, weapons sales, infrastructure, food, commodities, and transport).
So, the hegemonic wars will fail, geopolitical hegemony will fail and the Empire will recede. Russia will remain.
There is a piece of information that makes WWII easy to understand, specially contradictory events, such as Dunkirk 3 days pause, the German center army shift from Moscou in august 1941, the promise to air lift supplies to Stalingrad, assault on the fortress Kursk, too late use of jet planes by Germans (they were designed since 1939).
It`s a paradigm shift, I did not believe it immediately, but it`s the cold hard truth: all top Nazis leaders were traitorous Zionist jews, including Hitler!
National Socialism died in Hitler`s purge, june/30 1934. Thousands of political figures were liquidated in a terror night! A very usual practice of satanist driven political revolution.
Or, perhaps Adolf Hitler, with the military training of a WW1 corporal, just wasn’t the brilliant strategist that he convinced himself that he was and that he was making some key mistakes.
Not everything that happens can always be explained by a conspiracy of ‘zionist jews’.
The British masterminded most of the world war era.
Dunkirk was about Hitler expecting the British to be partners in the eastern war.
Hitler wanted peace and acceptance with the British side. He even offered to defend the British empire in India with German soldiers. The plan was to make the Soviet Union into ‘Germany’s India’
Know that the pathbreaker and visionary of nazism was not a German but the Brit Houston Steward Chamberlain. Cousin of Neville who saved Hitler from his Generals in 1938.
It was a British plot against the European continental powers AND against the jews. This because Britains near monopoly in finance could not be upheld had Germany been allowed to expand her peaceful trade. The jews were to remain an asset for Britain and the way to achieve it was to pit the Rivals against the jews. Hitler and the nazis were Britains dupes, not traitors.
Well laid out synopsis, in detail, of the current Syrian and uke situations.
Indeed, Uncle Sugar is starting the second Syrian war and if needs be when they are again defeated they will start the third Syrian war. It’s like an unpopular, with TPTB, referendum that passes. If you don’t like the referendum, you vote again and again until you get the desired results. However, the hegemon will not get the result they desire in Syria, all they will get is yet more dead and wounded and more destruction.
The problem in orcland is the orcs may attack tomorrow, they may wait until either the election or the football championship or it’s possible they will wait until the season of mud is over in late spring. NAF will not attack them beyond local chastisement and they know this, hence their daily and constant shelling of DNR and LNR, almost always civilian areas. I have an idea, from their current dispositions, what their avenue of attack possibly could be but nothing is a given until they actually do attack.
When they attack, I have no doubts that NAF can contain them but the first grinding fights will be expensive for both sides. At that time you will see the West Presstitutes go in to the full ‘Russia is attacking’ mode and the sanctions will be piled on yet again. If it gets to the point of no return on the sanctions, I have no doubts that the leash on NAF will be slipped and all of DNR and LNR will be freed from the orc occupation. That advance may well trigger the discontent in orcland which is boiling just below the surface and it is entirely possible the fighting, without NAF, will spread all across east and central orcland which will bring even more screams and sanctions.
The new sanctions will be a severe burden on Europe but unless that lovely place is threatened with the Russian Armies directly coming to them they will suck it up and do what their masters tell them to do, even if it costs them their relative prosperity. I would dearly love to know that Langley has on the likes of Merkel et al but that will never happen.
In the end, it’s going to be another mess for both sides, all at the instigation of Langley and Five Points. So be it, nothing we can do.
Auslander
” they will wait until the season of mud is over in late spring.”
So, around the beginning of late April, May? Just in time for the World Cup.
I’ve been watching those Global Hawks buzzing around at 50 thousand feet on the NAF border. I just wonder how much US assistance will really help Kieve this time around? If we go by history then not much but, still it is a worry.
usa extended sanctions announced by usa today….plus pentagon is researching examining resources infrastructure in eastern europe countries to see what they could rely on in a war scenario…..play acting or a more confrontative action?
https://sputniknews.com/us/201801261061102825-us-sanctions-russia-ukraine/
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801251061047236-pentagon-extends-police-globe/
pentagon empowers usa forces to confront anyone in the world “competing ” for the resources it thinks it needs…….
It is parially because the hegemon is getting weaker by the year, and partially because we serf descendants – we the 90-ish % – are waking up, that the ancient feudal elites and their Mercantilist/Liberal allies need to start WWIII.
WWIII will thus be nuclear.
The Saker takes it to the house, in this weeks article.
Everything that the “a**-kissing little chickens$%^s” do, will just cause more and more allies to switch sides.
Trump has become the village idiot for the MICC.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/01/19/boss-tweets-generals-already-run-the-show/
Trump is just a puppet, doing as told. Those around him are the ones making the decisions. They are not doing a very good job of it. The US is losing allies and at the same time making Putin very popular. One has to wonder if the people in Washington are fully responsible for their actions and if they really know what they are supposed to do.
To become a general is like running a 30 year “suck up to your superiors” marathon because you need a perfect career record. So being competent is not a job requirement for a general. Then the neocons are crazy and psychopaths have a high need for power and are good at getting it in Washington, but they’re incompetent.
So, of course, they all know what they’re supposed to do: keep the money flowing to the MICC and increase it.
On January 29, Vladimir Putin will meet with Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56722
makes sense – my godfather was a general of the Yugoslavian army (he is retired now) – I always thought brown-nosing was his best talent (as well as treating those below him like slaves)
Thinking like the Empire then the best time to restart the fight in the Donbas would be late February or early March when the election puts the maximum pressure on Putin to react, and as a result the taking away of the World Cup as a maximum punishment.
I’d be surprised actually if this doesn’t happen. It’s such a predictable play call, however, that the Russians should have a plan to counter it, if possible.
The strategy is to make everybody weak around them to keep them dependant on the only two strong nations (USarael). This strategy worked for a long time. The US did it in Europe for WW1 and WW2. They kept the European fighting each other and the Russians. There were plenty of plots to hatch at that time as it is the case now. With a few differences.
1-Population IQ in the other nations rose dramatically with interconnections between people of different nations thanks to the Internet. So simpleton plots are not as effective.
2-The economic weight of the west in the world keeps falling and the other nations are no longer easy to steer around. This is even worse when other options are emerging (China, Russia, India, Brazil).
3-The Alternatives like China and Russia are rather very attractive and forces the west to more compromises (JCPOA, instead of Kurdish border force there will be a 30km safe zone (It’s too late for that by the way, unwillingly transfer technology to China)
The west is just fighting against gravity and Gravity always wins. The trend is set you just live with it.
With every defeat of the US, the other nations get emboldened and willing to oppose them (UN vote against Jerusalem recognition as the Israeli capital).
Yes, Saker…thanks . the Duran article is in synch and in parallel :
http://theduran.com/end-afrin-crisis-kurds-assad-help/
The planetary consciousness enters a “tight” time as March is the time of Russian elections and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist shows the doomsday clock at 2 minutes shy of the “witching hour”. The current attack on Russian society is on many levels–covert and overt. Remember, there are many ways to corrupt the young. The youth will be rebelliously expressive in each generation so that is not necessarily bad—however, on their own time and in their own off duty costumes and off base. Do not indulge in defensive over reaction is my advice. And the monks throughout Russia quietly ratcheting up the prayer cycle for perilous times would be helpful .
A major eclipse on this Full moon hits the West Coast of the USA at 11 degrees Aquarius/Leo axis which is close by the world karma points. The American people (Moon) are under the rule of Aquarius( natal US moon is in sextile to transiting Uranus until May)–one can hope that there is a sweep of rebellious consciousness which happens in the next 6 months.
Also, may the various “committees” and cabals at high levels be unmasked: that MacMasters is gelded and that various Generals in Centcom are brought up on charges of treason.
I’m sure the “prayer cycle” is on, Putin went to a monastery recently, and he must have asked them to intensify their prayers. Some time ago a convent superior Putin was visiting remarked that when he asked for prayers, she told him that the written requests coming in were increasingly “Please pray for Putin” rather than for their personal issues.
I do love whoever keeps coming up with these names.
First, Al-Qaeda was rebranded into the “Sham” opposition.
Now we’ve got the creation of the “BS-Force”.
:)
LMAO that’s funny. But bilad as-Sham(the land of Sham) which was the name of the area constituting Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and occupied Palestine, before the western colonizers came and carved it up. Some people also refer to Syria as Sham. it comes from the names of one of prophet Noah’s son, who was called Sham.
“Did Trump and his generals really think that Turkey, Iran, Syria and Russia would accept a US protectorate in Syria masquerading as an “independent Kurdistan” and do nothing about it? Yet again, and I know this sounds hard to believe, but I think that this is yet another strong indication that the Empire is run by stupid and ignorant people whose brain and education simply do not allow them to grasp even the basic dynamics in the region of our planet there are interfering with.”
The USA strategists consistently act as if they are the only players in the game who get to make a move.
Anyone who’s ever played even basic levels of chess quickly learns to think “If I move here, then he’ll move there, then I’ll move there, then she’ll move there …. etc”
But consistently, the US acts like they are the only player who can move a piece. If we invade Iraq, then the only thing that can happen is that the grateful people will greet us waving tiny American flags. It never crosses their mind that the officers and soldiers of the Republican Guard will go underground and wage guerrilla war.
That’s just one example, but it seems to be a rather consistent pattern with this lot. Of course, a complete failure to perceive and grasp reality is indeed a symptom of stupid and igrorant people.
Remember, the USA is a highly corrupt society where money and influence gets a person anything. Including getting their children into the best schools even if they are dumb as pet rocks. Including getting these children nice government jobs or jobs with a think tank after graduation. At some point, the children will develop their own wealth and influence from what their parents bought and then use that to get better jobs.
Continue this for a few generations, and you do indeed end up with a bunch of stupid and ignorant people giving advice to politicians who only want to know what gets the elected and what makes them worth hundreds of millions like the Clintons did before them, and Welcome to the Beltway!
good explanation of all the stupidity in high places.
What you say about rich people’s kids getting into ‘best’ universities is true. I know a heiress of a very wealthy family (whose grandfather was the US ambassador in England, she has a foundation worth a few billions). She used to tell people that she was an architect – until I once introduced her to a friend who used to be one of the best architects in the US. Another friend who was with us mentioned to her that he also was an architect and they started talking about where they studied. He went to MIT – so did she! . He asked her which year? It turned out to be the same year! When we left her – my friend looked perplexed – he said he has never seen her at MIT – not even once! And he was the best student there (his father told me at the graduation – that’s what the director of the course told him – they never had as talented an architect as his son. ).
A few months later another friend told me that this heiress stopped telling people she was an architect….she is now an ‘artist’ – to which I replied – of course she did because we exposed her for fraud – she got her diploma thanks to her family’s donations (there is a building there named after them)….without ever showing up
So not just that she got into ‘best’ schools – she got the diploma without ever going there at all…
All it took to expose was a friendly Serb with lots of friends all over the place
Imagine how many more have not been exposed!
May God Help Us All.
Of course, one of the problems with playing chess with people as stupid as pigeons is that they likely will not do the smart thing. Thus, there’s always a chance that these stupid and ignorant people will instead start a war with North Korea.
Some recent events, such as missile attack drills in Honolulu and Toyko might appear to be pre-attack preparedness for a war not long after the Olympics. The USN currently has the standard CVN in Japan (USS Reagan), and is moving a CVN to ‘westpac’ (USS VInson) and has a third CVN off Southern CA (USS Stennis). Thus they are not far away (2 weeks??) from putting 3 CVN’s back together off the Korean coast. http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html
This does not rule out a war in Ukraine. Stupid and ignorant people are perfectly capable of blundering into a two-front war of their own making.
Approach Israel and KSA with security guarantees? While the idea itself is sound, I think you know this is wishful thinking. There’s a few major points (imo) that must be resolved before this is even possible. Else any negotiations will turn into a farce like the Minsk Protocol, a false peace and waste of time.
1. The internicine clash between Wahabi/Salafi vs Shia ideologies. Same Islam, just different sect. There’s this phenomenon where persons on either side of the sects acquire a blind spot, making them immune to reason or logic, whenever the opposite sides meet. Even when Reason is directly infront of them, talking logic and sense*, they will refuse to heed its words. Perhaps thinking their cause is more righteous than the other. Good luck fixing this, for I have seen rational and intelligent people fall prey to this strange affliction.
(*Reason tells them that a greater threat/enemy exists and it’s not the opposite sides of Islam. End the fighting that weakens both sides. Negotiate a truce. Build and strengthen your societies for the greater good. If by some godly miracle these two sides reconcile to “live and let live”, it’s certainly not good news to the chaos empire – US/Israel will try to sabotage every effort at reconciliation.)
2. For Israel, I don’t need to elaborate on their land aspirations or take lightly the Zionist’s Greater Israel plans. They have the patience to play for long-term strategies. The short-term isn’t their main goal. This is very obvious from their treatment of the Palestinians in Gaza/West Bank. It’s a slow burn. Give another 100-200 years, I doubt the Palestinians will have any will to resist. It falls to a numbers game, something the Zionists are very astute about. The continuous choking of Gaza/West Bank with its deplorable living conditions will negatively Palestinian populations, they’re living on a timer. Time isn’t on their side.
This assuming they aren’t doing other things on the sly such as subtle biological/chemical slow kills. The Zionist are are fully capable of this and will have no qualms about deploying them. Bear no illusions. If you account for these, the time left for the Palestinians is even shorter.
3. Continued beligerence of the US military and its foreign policies. You have to remember, the Americans have been conditioned from birth to see themselves as the greatest power on earth. Other lesser countries are mere unsophisticated and unenlightened sub-humans, similar to native North American Indians. Their Anglo-European allies are treated as mere serfs. Picture how big their heads will get and how much their nostrils will flare when politely told to please get the hell out of the Middle-East!
Not .. going .. to .. happen until certain pre-conditions have been fulfilled.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201801271061109785-israel-claims-iran-army-syria/
Huge claims how Iran is spending 35 billion on military and presence in Syria…troops bases etc….better to confront -strike it now?
@Sturm: “Give another 100-200 years, I doubt the Palestinians will have any will to resist.” I admire your confidence to assess the mental state of the inhabitants of Palestine a century or two from now. But for the present, I would draw your attention to the post by Ahmed at 11.32. Palestine is part of the area Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine — known collectively as “The Land of Shem” (or Sham); and plenty of its people are resisting plenty, right now. As for tomorrow ….
Another excellent article from The Saker. Everything was presented in a clear cut way, easy to understand.
Politics in the Middle East has always been based on double standards, treachery and back stabbing. This applies to Turkey as well. We are dealing with people who can never be trusted.
When it comes to the current situation, both Turkey and the US have outplayed each other. The Turks began by supporting ISIS and ended up being unofficial Syrian “allies”. The US supported the Kurds, using them to grab Iraqi and Syrian oil fields and preparing them for a future confrontation with Turkey. The inevitable reaction ensued, with Russia scoring points. Yes, Russia will try dragging Turkey to it’s side, but it can never trust it. In the end Syria, Iran, Turkey and the Kurds will end up in the Russian camp, at least for a short period of time, probably joined by Iraq, with Saudi Arabia being somewhere in the flanks.
And the US ? Yes, it will retaliate by forcing Poroshenko to attack the Donbass. He will do it, either during the presidential elections, or during the World Cup. Putin, ofcourse, knows this. By now he must have provided additional high tech to the Donbass Russians, who had three years to dig in and prepare for the upcoming attack.
I would not be surprised if Putin is actually hoping Poroshenko attacks. The morale of the Ukrainian population is approaching rock bottom, a great part of the population being reduced to poverty. The morale of the Ukrainian Army cannot be higher. Poroshenko can only count on the neo-Nazi elements in the military, the so-called volunteer battalions. Any Ukrainain attack will face well dug in Russian positions, and it’s questionable what the Ukrainian military can achieve, if anything. On the other hand, any attack may well lead to a huge political backlash against Poroshenko in Ukraine, a new Maidan, this time in reverse. The country could well break up in three parts.
Should Poroshenko attack, the US will get another geopolitical disaster. The only winner can be Putin. I just don’t see him permitting NATO end up on Russian borders and place it’s missile systems right next to the borders, leaving Russia open to blackmail.
The Ukraine if split into three parts means a successful chaos strategy. This gives a higher probability of NATO officially having missiles pointed at Russia in Lvov. So far in the current stalemate the US is stymied. That will be for the next round.
Lvov is in Poland, some distance away. The Russians cannot prevent missiles being placed in Poland, which is different than if they are placed right next to the Ukrainian-Russian border.
mod-to note: The Lvov referred to is a city currently in the western Ukraine. There is a Lvov in southeastern Poland
If I may, I agree with mod.
I like to add that the territory is referred to as (Galicja in Polish). Part of Galicja is in Poland (South East – City Rzeszów, etc) Larger part is in Ukraine and the city of Lvov is actual capital of Ukrainian Galicja.
There were many “proposals” about giving the Ukrainian Galicja to Poland. So it would inherit the fascists, who infest that part of Ukraine). But this is only a talk. After the WWII, Poland had a lot of problems with Bands of UPA (Bandera bands) in its Galicja. Lately, I see that Poles are beginning to protest against UPA and other fascist bands flourishing in Ukraine.
Seems very generous of Lavrov to say this?Trump forced into making anti-Russian decisions, Lavrov says
Russian Politics & Diplomacy January 22, 2:37 UTC+3
At the same time the United States gradually comes to understanding the incorrectness of its course toward Russia, top diplomat said
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump© AP Photo/Evan Vucci
MOSCOW, January 22. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump is forced to make anti-Russian decisions under the pressure of his national political opponents, however, judging by personal meetings, he is not refusing his pre-election pledges to restore relations with Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Russian daily Kommersant.
“When US President Donald Trump received me in the White House, when he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hamburg and later they held telephone conversations, I did not see US President Trump’s charge for any sort of actions, which could undermine his election campaign slogans that he wanted good relations with Russia,” Lavrov said.
The Russian foreign minister said the current stance of the United States in regard to Russia was the result of three factors, which are the defeat of Hillary Clinton at the presidential election, the non-system character of Donald Trump and the need to explain why not everything goes well for the United States on the international arena. Trump is forced into making anti-Russian decisions under such conditions, according to Lavrov.
“One should probably understand that under conditions when bills are passed by the majority of votes (95%), the president comes to think not about the essence of the draft law, how real it is, legitimate or decent, but that his veto would be eventually overrun,” Lavrov said.
The Russian top diplomat said that at the same time the United States gradually comes to understanding the incorrectness of its course toward Russia.
“We are comforted that recently some members of the Congress, political circles in the United States and some diplomats acknowledge quietly in their confiding talks the absolute abnormality of such situation and the need to improve it,” he said.
The Russian foreign minister added, however, that even in such cases proposals are voiced to negotiate some concessions from Russia before starting the normalization of relations.
“This sort of psychology definitely leads to the feeling that the great-power mentality does not serve the United States for good,” Lavrov said.
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More:
http://tass.com/politics/986181
Another accurate analysis, hit the nail on that one, Bravo.
As for the “Empire is run by stupid and ignorant people”…
Trump gave his powers to the Pentagon during his first 3-8 weeks in office, the POTUS don’t need to authorize a strike any longer. Pentagon is in charge and future will probably show they look way longer ahead than Saker’s analysis does.
This is a secular analysis while the Empire is currently run by Talmudists (Jared Kushner et al with Rothchild on top) while Obama, the Bush’s and the Clinton’s are Kabbalists.
Erdogan and AKP is Muslim Brootherhood which is an MI6 creation:
* http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2013/eirv40n31-20130809/15-22_4031.pdf
* http://guadalajarageopolitics.com/2016/11/11/william-engdahl-the-lost-hegemon-the-muslim-brotherhood-and-clintons-crimes-036/
Since MI6 = Queen of England = Kabbalists = MB = Mursi = Salafi Takfir = Qatar = Turkey (including Fetulah Gulen, and probably Azerbaijan and Al-Qaeda) and spiritual faith has primacy over everything else you can be sure all affiliations and things happening now are smoke screens to faint the atheists running Moscow.
So how about Tehran, you might ask? They too have not studied the Babylonian Talmud and thus don’t know their enemy:
“When a grown-up man has intercourse with a little girl it is nothing, for when the girl is less than this, it is as if one puts the finger into the eye; but when a small boy has intercourse with a grown-up woman he makes her as ‘a girl who is injured by a piece of wood,'”.
* http://www.come-and-hear.com/kethuboth/kethuboth_11.html
* http://www.talmudblasphemy.com/talmud-children.htm#n38
Of course, since KSA is Wahabi Takfir their leadership and GCC’s are Talmudists and one can wonder about Morocco and other nations. And you can bet al-Sisi is a Talmudist who will turn on Moscow in time, his uncle was high ranking Irgun or Stirn Gang and his mothers name is Malika al-Titani – “born from Nephilim serpents/reptoids/dragons”.
Any analysis that does not include the spiritual affiliation of each actor is out of context.
Kudos to Saker for the ingenious invention “Uncle Shamuel.” I am jealous. Why didn’t I think of that.
Observer
Maybe Trump has a plan to let the Pentagon implode in its own hubris?
Why not give the Pentagram a try at driving the ship of state? If they are the ‘only people who can get things done’, then they will be forced to focus on extracting themselves from their own secretions. Sounds like a pretty effortless way to downsize the military.
Maybe only a very stable genius could have thought of it.
– Shyaku
The Pentagon has been driving the Ship of Fools (uh, State) for some time now. The local area commanders act as Roman Procouncils and conduct diplomacy in their areas.
Its hard to see sometimes, as often the SOS and the SOD agree. But there have been notable times in the past when the SOS has pursued a different policy course than the SOD. One notable relatively recent example was when SOS Kerry tried to negotiate a cease-fire in Syria, only to have the SOD destroy the cease-fire with a bombing raid on the Syrian forces conducted in coordination with an ISIS attack. The SOS’ cease-fire was quickly and firmly dead after that.
The u.s. should be kicked out of the whole middle east, and this little piece of sh!t “israel” should be uprooted and made sure it’s forever destroyed like a plague infected syringe.
Unless, this madness is going to solve itself by itself in a nuclear war which the zionist plague will be the foremost instigator. The u.s is ruled by semi literate morons who have no clue or depth of history, geography and culture. Just read the cia fact book, it’s laughable.
OT: The following article reveals some interesting details leading up to the deliberate Israeli attack on the USS Liberty. It seems that Johnson was being run by a female mossad agent as part of a plan to get the US to blindly support Israel.
http://mondoweiss.net/2018/01/secret-life-mathilde/
I would say the lack of reaction from the US side is a clear sign of bewilderment. This reaction was not expected from Turkey. But it happened. I Expect the the US waiting for Turkey to run out of munitions, before any announcements are made, Turkey will run out after 14 days of sustained war. Their stocks are not larger than any other Nato country.
What then?
Great article, thank you! Regarding attacks on Donbass and any prospect of Russian aid, did you see where Russia is debating legalizing for hire militias? My first thought was what a great way to legally assist Donbass. Not that the West would care that the Russian troops were “legal” but if Blackwater is…
What if the Americans are not as stupid as suggest? What if they are in bed with Erdogan and the “Border Security Force” proposal was just meant to give Erdogan an excuse (both internationally and towards Turkish public opinion) to send his troops into Syria?
The main American goal is to have a rebel body that has some credibility as negotiation partner. The Turkish invasion will provide that. Occupying Afrin will create a rebel held territory from Idlib to Jarabulus. Next the Kurds will be forced to give up their Arab majority areas to this rump state.
Of course the Americans will play it like they are forced by the Turks and their “security needs”. No need to highlight their betrayal of the Kurds all too much.
The atomic scientists are too diplomatic to say something as blunt (and true) as ‘stupid and ignorant people’. But doesn’t the following sound like they are trying to find a nice way to say that?
“In the past year, US allies have needed reassurance about American intentions more than ever. Instead, they have been forced to negotiate a thicket of conflicting policy statements from a US administration weakened in its cadre of foreign policy professionals, suffering from turnover in senior leadership, led by an undisciplined and disruptive president, and unable to develop, coordinate, and clearly communicate a coherent nuclear policy. This inconsistency constitutes a major challenge for deterrence, alliance management, and global stability. It has made the existing nuclear risks greater than necessary and added to their complexity”
–From the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in their statement where they place humankind’s Doomsday Clock as close to disaster as its ever been. https://thebulletin.org/2018-doomsday-clock-statement
Saker wrote:
The US-Israeli goals in Syria were really very simple. As I have already mentioned in a past article, the initial AngloZionist plan was to overthrow Assad and replace him with the Takfiri crazies…
My comment:
Contrary to the mythos proffered in CIA controlled alt media, the Zionist game plan is long — as in, decades and centuries.
Persuing your list it is obvious that none of these so-called “goals” have been achieved. In fact, in virtually every case you describe almost exactly the opposite has occurred — and my contention is that this is perfectly intentional.
1. Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces and security services.
Fail.
2. Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan, but further north.
Partial fail.
3. Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
Fail. Lebanon is more united than ever, as made clear when Hezbollah voiced unprecedented support for Saad Hariri when he was theoretically kidnapped and deposed by the Saudi regime.
4. Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
Fail. Hezbollah is unquestionably stronger than ever.
5. Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
Fail. The road between Tehran and Damascus is already open, nothwithstanding how propagandistic maps are usually coloured.
6. Breakup Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
Fail. Over 70% of the Syrian Arab Army is composed of Sunnis, and all of them volunteers.
7. Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Fail, although the pretext has allowed Erdogan to invade northern Syria and the US to weakly occupy north estern Syria with Kurdish proxy militia. All could be swept away tomorrow if the Iranians were willing to put the PMU to the task.
8. Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and forces the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
Fail. No one is forced to go to Israel for anything regarding pipelines and moreover, going through Israel will be incredibly expensive and everyone in the pipeline business already knows it. Certainly the Germans won’t be put off their own Nordstream alternatives no matter how much of a satrap of NATO they may be.
9. Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
Fail. In any case President Rouhani is an ally of Zionism, and has been since his early days studying law in Scotland, later acting as lead ‘negotiator’ for Iran during Iran-Contra and representing the most pro Western Zionist choice in Iranian elections. This aspect of the great psyop against humanity has been perhaps the greatest trick of Western propaganda — to make most people beleive that the Kleptocratic Zionist Iranian regime is an enemy of the West. Ha ha ha.
10. Eliminate all center of Shia power in the Middle-East.
Absolute fail.
What is occurring is a long term project to pacify the people of the world, especially in the middle east, Arab and Islamic worlds. This is no different from what happened to European during World Wars I, II and the subsequent Cold War of State Sponsered Nuclear Terror.
This is always the #1 goal of the Zionist elite — to strengthen their power and deepen their control — and always this means controlling the space in between your ears. Whether they are using Jesus Christ, Adam Smith, Murray Bookchin, Karl Marx or Chairman Mao, the goal is always to deepen control of the masses by what is an authentically psycopathic elite.
Your leaders are psycopathic so everyone please get over it. As with any bad dream the problem only begins to go away when we learn to turn around and look the monster straight in the eye.
The project to pacify humanity is eternal, costs millions upon billions of lives and of course, will be immensely profitable for the Zionist Mafiocracy who grow stronger with every day that passes and in every respect.
Ladies and gentlemen, you are being brutalized into total submission, like dogs who must be trained to drop immediately to the floor whenever their master so much as raises his finger. Everything you experience is calculated to have this effect, and with modern technology it is inescapablre and capable of completely overwhelming you, including what we are told are the supposedly catastrophic losses sustained due to ‘miscalculations’ made by the Empire.
Nothing could be further from the truth. There is no ‘failure’ which can not be turned into a victory for the psycopathic elite.
Ask yourself, are the people of Vietnam or Cuba today enjoying their fruits of their victory over Western Imperialism today? How did that turn out for the people of Vietnam and Cuba after they supposedly defeated the hegemon?
Or for that matter when did you ever hear that a member of the Zionist Super Elite had sustained a genuine loss in any way whatsoever? When did a Rothschild or Bush ever go to jail for his or her murderousness and unstoppable crimes against humanity? When did any of these people ever sustain even the tiniest loss of their fortunes which wasn’t later taken back directly from you?
It never happens because the system under which we are forced to live is unconcerned with Justice.
Think of the planet as a vast prison plantation overseen by what are essentially agents of Masonry and Intelligence. That is what they are making and the anti Christ is already here. No need to wait for a new Gospel to tell you it is so.
Only by seeing our reality for what it is, without subscribing to false hope engineered by all forms of media, can we ever put up some kind of valid Resistance.
As ever, victory for the People requires adherence to Truth — and love of Truth is a love of God. Don’t let them make you forget.
Truth requires that you listen to that little voice inside of yourself, which all of us possess, but which all of the noise makers of the world work relentlessly to make us forget.
How could the Russians have prevented the imposition of a no-fly zone if they did not have a presence in Syria yet?
Beware of the Kurds’ cynical geopolitical games:
“The Syrian Kurds are exploiting Damascus’ strong sense of patriotism in order to provoke it into the dilemma of either entering into a confrontation with Ankara or risk falling victim to slanderous accusations that it “sold them out” to the Turks, with this entire manipulation being carried out with the grand strategic intent of prompting Moscow to diplomatically intervene in safeguarding the PYD’s desired “decentralization” dreams in the region and inadvertently furthering the American-Israeli vision for a Kurdish corridor to the sea.”
The Syrian Kurds Think They Can Play Damascus Like A Fiddle
https://orientalreview.org/2018/01/26/syrian-kurds-think-can-play-damascus-like-fiddle/
Again and again and again I’ve been saying that Putin’s biggest blunder ever, in his entire time in power, was not to have actually invaded Ukraine in 2014 right after Yanukovych was overthrown by Nuland’s Ukranazis. The Duma had given Putin authorisation for military action against the coup junta, the operation could have been speedily achieved with two battalions of Spetsnaz, Yanukovych reinstated, and the troops withdrawn with the clear statement that any future Maidan would mean they would be back and this time to stay. Instead, he asked the Duma to withdraw that authorisation, did not invade, and was still blamed by Amerikastan and its EU slaves for carrying out the selfsame “invasion”. Now Ukraine is a permanent knife held to Russia’s underbelly, and while Amerikastani media tomtoms the alleged Russian threat to the apartheid regimes of the three Baltic puppet states (which Moscow could crush easily but does not want anyway), the real threat is to Russia and via Ukraine. And now when the Ukranazi regime invades Donbass (most probably synchronised with the Russian presidential election) Russia will have a stark choice: either let the Donbass population go under, which will be politically suicidal for Putin, or launch the actual armed invasion for which he’s been blamed, and keep going until Russian tanks are rolling through the streets of Kiev and Kharkov. Only this time it will take multiple army divisions and massive air power, not two battalions of Spetsnaz, and Yanukovych can’t be reinstated afterwards; Russia will have to administer the rump Ukraine at least for some time to come.
The hypocrisy of the Amerikastanis and their European slaves is even more manifest when they support the Saudi Barbarian invasion of Yemen, which is allegedly to restore Hadi, who actually resigned. Yanukovych, of course, never did.
Brilliant! Except on one point. When you say : And yes, the next logical step will be to approach Israel and the KSA and give them security guarantees in exchange for their assurances to stop creating chaos and wars on behalf of the USA. I know, I will get a lot of flak for saying this, but there *are* people in Israel and, possibly, Saudi Arabia who also understand the difference between “bad” and “worse”.
These are the warmonger, not the US. The US are muppets in israeli’s hands. That whole chaos has one goal: the great eretz israel.
Israel was created as a buffer state for the British empire and was always aimed to expand the same empire. And the greater Israel is in the interest of the Us/Uk elites who wish to control the area. And who dont want the people there to develop their region. Also it is in the interest of the aa’s that people believe the stooge is the hidden master. But the truth is the jews were prevented from assimilating in continental Europe by the British. There would have been no Israel if the jews had been left in peace by the British, beginning their subversion nearly a century before Balfour. Several jews in the US establishment act in an extrovertly provocative manner which feeds peoples minds with the idea that it is a jewish affaire.
And hides the fact that the angloamerican elites have the same aim.
Abbas recently said Israel is colonial project and never was about the jews. That may seem like strong words but is basically correct.
Moderator NOTE: I’ve approved this post for publication however I read the offered link to the German newspaper and could find no mention of napalm. This could be because 1) the poster’s understanding of German is incomplete, or 2) the poster is a troll who is intentionally trying to plant false information or distract from an accurate and intelligent discussion of this topic. Perhaps time will tell. The poster’s IP address is not currently on our “Banned/Troll” list however if this poster fails to follow up with more complete and accurate information, they could find themselves (or at least their current “identity”) banned. Respectfully, Moderator J
Dear Saker, dear community!
I had some recent information that turkey may use napalm in their operation in Afrin. I wonder if someone has further information hitherto ? This article appeared in a German newspaper
m. fr. de/politik/operation-olivenzweig
“The Trump Administration’s “strategy”…” Actually, it was Obomber’s strategy and bush before him, Bubba, etc. Its the same foreign policy.
It’s too soon to write-off the US and claim victory in Syria.
Say hello to the return of the dreaded stingers: http://www.france24.com/en/20180204-russian-jet-shot-down-syria-pilot-killed
Putin should not have stabbed the Syrian Kurds in the back and dump them for the Turks. Their brothers in Iraqi Kurdistan is now likely to be used as a rat-line to supply the Syrian Kurds to bog down both Erdogan and Putin in a guerrilla warfare (stinger) meat-grinder ala Afghanistan 1980 redux.
In fact Iraqi Kurdistan is very likely to be used as a base to destabilise the entire Gulf to Mediterranean region and also likely northwards to sting at Putin’s underbelly. And there is very little that Russia can do.
Israel is likely also aiming at a 30 years (guerrilla) war to depopulate the whole region. It’s not over till the fat (Kurdish) lady sings.
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.se/2018/02/turkey-establishing-long-sought-us-safe.html
Tony Cartalucci also seems to see it in a different light than Saker.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but the actual target is Russia! Turkey is of not much importance, even to Nato, except for bogging down Russia in Syria and threatening Russia’s south-western flanks and her southern and very vulnerable underbelly. Someone should be waking up to this before it’s too late!
As for this “the entire plan had no UNSC authorization was thus totally illegal under international law..” – the Zioyanks and their allies have more than once shown their middle finger with the same contempt that Victoria “f*** the EU” Nuland showed to the EU. The War of the Stingers 2.0 has started!