OMG – it happened: Under US pressure UN “disinvites” Iran from Geneva II talks. Now that is a direct challenge to Russia which logically should cancel its participation to the conference. Syria, I believe should do the same.
Screw them. This is a farce and neither Syria nor Russia should agree to participate in a farce organized by the side which lost the war. I hope that Assad and Putin will not accept that absolutely outrageous situation.
Lavrov had declared that Iran’s absence from Geneva II would be an “unforgivable mistake” and “profane” (he actually said that it would be a “profanation” which in Russian means something close to “abomination”). Great! Now act on these words and pull out of this charade!
I want to clarify the following here: the minor reason why Russia and Syria should refuse to attend Geneva II without Iran is that Iran’s exclusion just makes no sense. But that is the minor reason only. The major reason for refusing these terms is that the USA and the so-called “opposition” have lost the war and they are in no position to set terms. History, including Russian history, has seen many examples of the loosing side dictating terms to the winning side and that is always a recipe for disaster. Last time Russia “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory” was at the infamous “Khasavyurt agreement” but that is hardly the only case.
Maybe I am being unfair to Putin, Lavrov and Assad, but I am literally terrified that they will fall into this trap. But then, I am paranoid and pessimistic by natural inclination, upbringing, training and philosophy. I hope that I am wrong this time…
So far, all we know is that Kerry called Lavrov today (the 20th). No more details so far.
The Saker
PS: just listened to the 3AM Russian news. Just reporting the fact. No reaction so far from Lavrov or Putin. I have this really bad feeling….
@Disinvitation,
I was writing on 14 January:
“I am sure that “They” are busy concocting plans how to derail any peace agreement and bring again a situation in which to demand a “war crimes” court”.
Balaban, I share with you a pessimistic nature. For me the glass is always half empty. I knew (“everybody knows the dice are loaded”) that les Amerlos (and the Anglos) always negociate in bad faith. It is called Kol Nidre.
My faith is that the Truth always wins. And I trust that “nashi” see through the smokescreen.
Goree imeami serdtsa,
WizOz
@WizOz:For me the glass is always half empty.
And even if it ain’t – they usually end up spilling it anyway…
everybody knows the dice are loaded
yes, but the good guys won, so I hope that the diplomats are not going to undo what the Syrian soldiers achieved on the ground!
Kol Nidre
true, and we should expect no less of them, but then it is our fault if we let them get away with
And I trust that “nashi” see through the smokescreen.
See, this is were I am more pessimistic. Russia and Syria should have put the participation of Iran as a pre-condition to their attending the conference. They did not do that, and I am really worried about the reasons for maintaining that ambiguity
Goree imeami serdtsa
Yes, and let us pray that God will grant the Syrians and Russians the wisdom to reject these terms.
The Saker
Jumping on the pessimism bandwagon:
– the peace conference is cancelled
– another staged civilian massacre occurs
– the”civilized” world must act to save the children
– the US, Israel, Turkey et al with varying degrees of visibility launch attacks against Syria.
– Syria responds effectively but is worn down after months of fighting
– Russia and Iran with China in the background begin to provide serious weapons and support to Syria
– Something happens in Saudi Arabia, the oil stops
– The world enters a general economic depressions, the US and EU impose martial law to tamp down civilian unrest over unemployment and looming starvation
– Russia and China and to a lesser degree India cut themselves loose of the Western economies, currency and banking systems to form a pan-Asian economic zone.
– Latin America truly becomes free of US domination and forms their own economic block
(my crystal ball becomes too murky to see further).
@Saker
> Maybe I am being unfair to Putin, Lavrov and Assad, but I am literally terrified that they will fall into this trap.
The Putin/Lavrov combo’s surprising successes in 2013 alone would suggest to me that if they continue to participate, they probably know more than we do or are shrewder diplomats.
They might in fact, at times, be concerned about the opinion of the self-styled “international community”, i.e. Washington think-tanks and their outlets “of record”.
Look at their maneuverings with Iran in general and the oil deal that’s in the pipes. Russia isn’t rushing. And however wishful it would be for Syrians, Russia isn’t “the sole superpower” and with the US opposing Assad this all takes time. The US must learn to swallow their pride. Not a bad idea coincidentally, since their food stamps are being used up and there’s not a lot left for them to consume – except for their abundant pride.
Honk
Very revealing article, its amusing the tone used by Ford, revealing the true vassal an non-sovereign nature of the KSA http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37419.htm
Putin and Lavrov don’t shoot from the hip like Zio-controlled Kerry does.
The Russians are cool operators. They will use Kerry’s latest maneuverings to their advantage. They’re holding the cards in this game.
Don’t forget that Putin just made an oil exploration deal with Assad and he’s not going to see that disappear.
Be patient. Putin and Lavrov have a few aces up their sleeves. They play their game to win and they play it on their terms and their timing.
+Brother Nathanael Kapner
Member, Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (ROCOR)
@War crimes court
I refer to my comment of 14 Jan repeated here (first comment).
I am loath to see that I was right. The Assad=Hitler is on the table.
WizOz
in its dynamic geneva 2014 looks ramboulet 1999.
Now we will see the true role of russia.
Nice to hear from you Brother Nathanael. A word of caution though, i read a response about you from “The Saker” here to the effect that he considers you a fr*ak and an impostor. Well, that´s him. I think you are great. Keep it up!
While pessimistic, I don’t follow that uninviting Iran is such a catastrophic development in the actual mess that is Middle East and all the unholy alliances at large. I still don’t understand why US suddenly decided the new approach to Iran that led to recent slowdown rethoric, but in the meanwhile Philip Giraldi is fanning this: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/intel-community-makes-peace/
Could it be that US diplomacy just needs to play like it is really in control of the situation or is it that some in the inside want talks to go ahead while others don’t?
@”+Brother Nathanael Kapner Member, Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (ROCOR)”
First, I have to tell you that I have as a policy to never censor anybody no matter what they say here. Yet, when I saw your post yesterday, it really took all my courage and determination to stick to this policy and post your comment. The reason for that is that I am well aware of your past and current activities and, frankly, I am torn between two feelings: on one hand, I believe that you are sincere and well intentioned and by all accounts, you are a nice person, but on the other, I have no other way of putting this, sorry, I think that you are totally insane and that the only excuse you have for mis-representing Orthodox monasticism as a buffoonery is that you need psychiatric assistance.
Second, at the very least I ask you to stop misleading others by pretending that you are a member of the Russian Orthodox Church Abroad. I motivate my demand by 2 reasons:
a) The only ecclesiastical body which deserves to be called “Russian Orthodox Church Aboard” the the Synod currently headed by Metropolitan Agafangel. This Synod is the only one which received the recognition of the other Sister Churches which were in communion with the ROCA before its union with the MP: the Greek, Romanian and Bulgarian Sister Churches in Resistance.
b) Though you seem to currently claim to be under the “unionist” and apostate ROCA-MP, even they deny that: http://www.johnsanidopoulos.com/2013/07/rocor-statement-on-brother-nathanael.html
The fact is that you are not only insane, but a “one man Church”. The latter just confirms the former.
To the best of my ability to find out your true status I believe that many years ago you were a subdeacon and a novice. I have lost track of how many different churches you have belonged to for a short while (these guys have tried: http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Nathanael_Kapner)
Frankly, I would be grateful to you if you simply agreed not to post here. If you want to ignore my request, at least please stop mis-representing yourself. As I said, I will never censor anybody, including you, but why would you abuse that courtesy when the decent thing to do would be to just leave and take your “streetcorner missionary activity” elsewhere.
I am very sorry. Please forgive me. Many thanks in advance.
The Saker
Dear Saker,
Here is a report from the Guardian which for once summarises the Russian and Iranian positions rather well:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/21/syria-peace-talks-iran-russia-angry-invitation-withdrawal
It is clear that the Russians will go ahead with Geneva II regardless of whether the Iranians are there or not. It would be very difficult for the Russians to pull the plug on Geneva II given that they have been instrumental in setting up the conference. From their point of view having peace talks is better than no peace talks regardless of their outcome since the existence of peace talks makes a US attack on Syria (which it is Russia’s priority to prevent) more difficult.
Having said this, you are right to be pessimistic. I cannot believe that Ban Ki-Moon made the invitation without first clearing it with the US so the fact that he has rescinded the invitation must mean that the US itself has reversed its position obviously after coming under pressure from hardliners in Washington and from Israel and the Saudis. This shows that the struggle in Washington between the realists (including Kerry) and the hardliners continues unabated and that the hardliners who seemed to be in retreat are back on the offensive. The British media today offers further proof of this with saturation coverage of a report that accuses Assad of systematic executions and torture. For the record I have no doubt the government in Syria has engaged in executions and torture. So of course have the rebels. The point however is why is this report being released now?
If you go back to our earlier discussion you will remember that I said that because they suffered a setback over the Ghouta gas attack it didn’t mean the regime change hardliners had gone away and we cannot afford to stand down on this issue. Today’s events offer proof of that.
you have one serious problem, I suggest you learn to relax, big bird.
many of those “loosing side dictating” situations have a reason, namely there was angloamerican threats behind such agreement and russian side was always weak in the case.
but in this case… the USA has nothing to say and lavrov et al. should make these imbeciles pay. and I think they will.
Guys, check out latest move in the Syrian crisis.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/20/world/syria-torture-photos-amanpour/
Something is fishy here. Why do they keep persisting?
I understand and sympathise with many of the points being made here. However people should understand that the issue is not “making the US pay”. It is resolving the Syrian crisis. That can only happen in one of two ways:
1. Through peace talks; or
2. Military victory by one side.
Today’s events show that neither the rebels nor their backers are sincere about peace talks. If they were sincere about peace talks they would want Iran involved in them. At the same it has been clear for at least a year that whilst the Syrian government may be able to achieve victory by itself the rebels cannot achieve victory by themselves and need western military intervention to achieve it.
The overriding objective must therefore be to prevent western military intervention. The question is whether it is having peace talks or not having peace talks which makes western intervention less likely. On balance I think it is having peace talks which makes western intervention and I suspect this is the calculation the Russians and incidentally the Iranians and the Syrians are also making. People here need to remember that the only real constraint on US military intervention is US public opinion. I feel it will be more difficult to persuade US public opinion (which is hostile to the idea of intervention) to support intervention whilst peace talks are taking place.
Having said that “difficult” does not mean “impossible”. We must foresee attempts to manipulate and distort the peace talks to imply that it is the Syrians (and the Russians) who are being instructive. When this happens and the peace talks fail (which is now looking much more likely though it is not yet entirely certain) it is essential that the truth is laid bare. It is because the mainstream MSM cannot be relied upon to do this (in fact it will do the opposite)that blogs like this matter.
@Alexander
The ones who are using NATO to pursue their goal of dominion of the earth do not care about public opinion, if you require evidence of this, just look at all the covert operations (death squads, human experimentation, etc) that have persisted over the last half century of which I am sure is only the tip of the ice berg.
These creatures want to dominate the planet and in their hubris, may have initiated a chain of events that will destroy them and a lot of us.
How’s that for pessimism?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougschoen/2014/01/22/putin-is-pulling-all-the-strings-and-obama-is-letting-him/
Check this out from Forbes. FINALLY! They gave it to us straight. HILARIOUS!