US Options in the Ukraine: trigger a religious war?

Note from the Saker: I wrote this article before taking a break to write my thesis and I am posting it now even though my summer fundraiser will only end on Wednesday. I just don’t want you to have to wait for the end of my fundraising drive before getting your news and analysis, especially on the Ukraine (which has been requested by many), but if you have not contributed yet – please do so now. Thanks a lot! The Saker
——-
This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/us-options-in-the-ukraine-trigger-a-religious-war/

Listening to the imperial media one might be excused for thinking that nothing dramatic is happening in the Ukraine and that the crisis has basically leveled off in some way. Well, why not? They just had recent elections and, apparently, that went well, Russia is still showing her usual bad will and threatening behavior towards Europe, but at least Putin was forced to release the Ukrainian Jeanne d’Arc (aka Nadezhda Savchenko), and there is hope that the united front of the EU and NATO will eventually force Putin to stop his aggression against the Ukraine and to comply with the Minsk Agreements. Oh, and the Ukrainian National Bank has announced, I kid you not, a return to growth (by 0.1%) for the first quarter of the year.

Alas, the disconnected between this kind of nonsense and reality is total. Yes, elections did take place, but they were anything but free, the neo-Nazis are now more influential than ever and the fact that Putin did agree to exchange Savchenko for 2 Russian citizens accused of being, I kid you not, GRU Spetsnaz operators, was just a slick way for him to stop Savchenko from being his problem while making her Poroshenko’s (and even Timoshenko’s). As for the Minks Agreements, Russia is not part to them at all, she just is a guarantor along with Germany and France. But yes, Poroshenko is still in power, people are still finding goods in stores and no new “Maidan” has taken place. So, externally, things are not too bad.

The problem with that rosy image is that nobody at Langley really believes it.

The folks at Langley know that the Ukrainian economy is basically dead and coasting to its inevitable breakdown on inertia. They know that the government services are barely kept alive by western aid and that even that is not enough to maintain the authority of the central government which is gradually becoming irrelevant and replaced by local ‘authorities’ (oligarchs and mobsters). Even more importantly, they now have lost any hope of drawing Russia into this conflict and they are seeing clear signs that the “European front” is cracking: France, Italy and others are already showing signs of discontent with the current situation, as has Germany (all these countries have their own “Langleys” who are making exactly the same dire predictions). So the big question for the USA is what to do next?

The initial plan was to make the Ukraine a sort of “black hole” which would suck in all the economic, political, economic and military resources of Russia, ideally by having Russia occupying the Donbass. But now that the Russians have declined to get sucked in, it is Europe which is now threatened with the Ukrainian black hole.

The Americans probably realize by now that it is too late to put Humpty Dumpty together again and they are right. While, in theory, a join effort of the USA, EU and Russia could, at a huge cost, try to rebuilt the Ukraine, political realities make such a joint action impossible, at least for the foreseeable future. They also realize that, courtesy of Mrs Nuland’s candid words, the blame for the disastrous outcome in the Ukraine will be put on the USA (which is not quite far, the Europeans are also guilty as hell, but such is life). And if “losing Syria”, and was bad enough, then “losing the Ukraine” will do irreparable damage to the USA simply by debunking the myth of the USA’s omnipotence. This is very serious, especially for an Empire which has basically given up on negotiations or diplomacy and which now only delivers ultimatums.

So what are the US options here?

It is hard to predict at this time what the US might try to do. The normal US practice in such a situation is to simply declare victory and leave. That would work in Africa or Asia, but smack in the middle of the European continent that is hardly an option as it would result in a PR disaster.

The second option could be to basically blame the Ukrainians themselves for everything and try to protect Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova from the inevitable consequences of the spreading chaos. The risk here, at least from the US point of view, is that Russia and her Novorussian allies would be more or less free to move in the created vacuum and that is something the USA absolutely cannot accept. The Americans would have visions of Zakharchenko in Kiev or pro-Russian riots in Odessa and that is simply beyond unacceptable.

Which leaves option three: to deliberately blow up the Ukraine.

Rostislav Ishchenko, in my opinion the best specialist of the Ukraine on the planet, has recently began warning that such a mechanism is already in place: to turn the civil war into a religious war pitting not Latins (“Roman Catholics”) against the Orthodox, but various Orthodox group against each other. Let me explain.

Like everything else in the Ukraine, the history of the various Orthodox jurisdictions in the Ukraine is very complex and goes far back into the centuries. I cannot go into a detailed discussion of this very interesting topic here, but I want to offer some key pointers.

There are three main groups which all call themselves the “true” or “canonical” Ukrainian Orthodox Church: the biggest one is the Autonomous Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, followed by the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyivan Patriarchate and, finally, the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church. Of course, all three of these churches claim to be the true representative of the legitimate Ukrainian Orthodoxy.

[Full disclosure: I personally don’t consider any of them to be legitimate or truly Orthodox so I don’t have a personal stake in this one].

They are:

The AUOC-MP is the biggest of the three. It is self-governing, but not fully independent. It is probably the biggest of the three churches and it is in full communion with all of the other “official” (read: “state approved”) Orthodox Churches out there. The AUOC-MP is viewed as the “hand of the Kremlin” by the nationalists.

The UOC-KP was founded by a former Bishop of the Moscow Patriarchate, Filaret Denisenko who created a “schism” (a unilateral separation in contradiction to the Canons of the Church) from the Moscow Patriarchate (which is ironic since Filaret was a former “deputy” (locum tenens) to Patriarch Pimen I of the Moscow Patriarchate and even considered a front-runner to succeed him). Even by Soviet standards Filaret was always known to be an exceptionally immoral, corrupt and unprincipled man, but the Moscow Patriarchate only excommunicated him when he broke-off from the MP to create his own “church”.

The UAOC is basically a 1921 creation of the Ukrainian National Republic of 1917 (just as the Moscow Patriarchate is a 1937 creation of the Bolshevik state of 1917) and it represents the “non-Soviet” version of Ukrainian Christianity and several of its clergymen have been persecuted by the Soviet state.

What makes this situation truly unique are two factors:

Historically, the territory which is today known as the Ukraine has mostly been part of the Patriarchate of Constantinople between the 10^th and 17^th century (this is a gross simplification, but basically correct).
The modern Patriarchate of Constantinople is in a desperate quest for relevance (by itself it is tiny and subject to the Turkish authorities) and has extremely bad relations with Moscow

There is, therefore, at very real risk that the authorities in Kiev will decide to declare the AUOC-MP as an “aggressor country Church” and that they will order all the parishes, monasteries and other building currently owned by the clergy of the AUOC-MP to be forcibly transferred to either the UOC-KP and/or the UAOC. There is also a possibility that the Patriarch of Constantinople might decide to “heed the cries of the faithful” and recognize either the UOC-KP and/or the UAOC as an autonomous part of the Constantinople Patriarchate thus basically taking the entire Ukraine under his control. And even if the authorities in Kiev don’t formally declare the AUOC-MP as a fair game for pogroms and illegal expropriations, they can just look away and let the neo-Nazi death-squads (like the infamous “Aidar”) do the dirty job for them.

How big is this risk?

I would assess it as high. To create civil disturbances is the ideal way for the regime in Kiev to blame the “hand of Moscow” for all the problems. The spineless Europeans would have to follow the (US) party line and blame Putin for “stirring up the Russian-speakers” in the Ukraine and “using the pro-Moscow Russian minority initiate a new phase in the hybrid war against the sovereign Ukraine”. Such a confrontation would also allow to unite the oligarch controlled political factions with the real neo-Nazis who are currently in a “moderate opposition” mode. For the oligarchs, they would be the perfect opportunity to murder their neo-Nazi opposition (Savchenko for example) and blame it on “Moscow’s agents”. Last but not least, the eruption of intra-Orthodox clashes would be the perfect pretext to further unleash the SBU (Ukie KGB) against any opposition party.

Just as in the war against the Donbass, Putin would be put under tremendous pressure inside Russia to “do something about this” and some will not shy away form demanding that Russian tanks be sent to Kiev. Of course, Putin would never agree to such a folly, but that refusal would most definitely hurt him in the Russian public opinion, yet another good result from such an intra-Orthodox conflict in the Ukraine.

For the time being, the Empire is limiting its anti-Russian informational war to petty actions like the banning of Russian athletes from the Olympics in Brazil, focusing solely on Russian hooligans in France and giving the Eurovision to a political singer against all Eurovision rules. These are annoying for sure, but they are very limited in their effects: yes, it makes Russia look like the “uncivilized bad guy” in the eyes of the TV-watching idiots in the West, but a lot of people are not buying into this and see straight through it all, and it just servers to consolidate the support of the Russian people for Vladimir Putin. At the end of the day, turning the Western public opinion against Putin is useless. What the Empire would really want is to turn the Russian public opinion against Putin – that is The Prize, at least for the folks in Langley.

So what better way would there be to set the Ukraine (further) ablaze while giving the Russian people the impression that “Putin has betrayed the Orthodox people”, than to trigger a religious war ?

We all know the famous words of a US officer in Viet-Nam “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it”. There is now a real risk that the US might decide to destroy the Ukraine in order to “save it”, especially if the Neocons re-take full control of the Executive under Hillary.

The Saker

Gunnar on June 26, 2016 · at 10:39 am EST/EDT

Scott, thanks for the compliment. All right I got a lot of questions. I think the best way to ask them is to lay down my version in regard of the retreat from Slawjansk and the further developments. Everywhere it contradicts your picture – there is a question :)
The guys around Strelkov seemed to be the best fighters the young republic had to this time. They shot down helicopters, planes and forced the Ukraine to deploy nearly the entire army around Slawjansk. To encircle the “Strelkovzevs” they needed a few weeks. This time Borodai was in charge in Donezk and it was pretty quiet there. Lugansk had problems. Bolotov seemed to be a charismatic leader with a lack of military luck – or there just weren’t enough capacities this time. (What most people like me didn’t see this time was the formation of “Oplot”,”Priszrak” and so on…this is a real big topic, most western journalists didn’t get this one until now :) ).
Back to Strelkov. It was clear that the units of Novorussia were too isolated. An attempt to break the encirclement of Slawjansk from the south failed. But it was the first time, the defenders of Donbass showed to be able for a big organized attack. I remember how often I discussed the necessity of an united command for Novorussias army.
Lots of people were praying that Slawjansk shouldn’t fall. I had the “opposite” opinion. I thought Strelkov should give up this town, move to Donezk an found a united command for all women and men who would like to fight for Novorussia. As I saw it, he was the most admired military commander this time and he seemed to know what he was doing.
The breakthrough in south of Slawjansk and the “rally” to Donezk was interpreted by most westerners as the beginning of the end and I’m still proud, that I thought, that it was a reasonable tactical move and the possible beginning of united efforts to crush the “punishers” of Donbass. As Strelkov arrived in Donezk he acted like Napoleon, some changes in the artillery and next day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers at the airport gave up. He organized the defense of the city. The “Ukies” came and took a lot of villages but not the city, not Gorlovka, not Lugansk.
At this time I began to count the losses of both sides, I read the stories about the “voentorg”, about the “vacationers” and the hundreds of foreign fighters who came “in return” for the Russians who fight fascism once. So I got a picture of what was going on.
A difficult point of time was as “Strelkows men” encircled a unit of Ukrainians at the Russian border while at the same time the Ukrainian army attacked Schachtjorsk and Krasnii Luch with about 250 armored vehicles. This time I saw videos and photos from the fights in Schachtjorsk and saw that there the defenders of Slawjansk became heroes once again.
As I said, I had begun counting the losses. And I was calculating with a very basic mathematical model, that the Ukrainian attack would collapse in about 3-4 weeks. There were videos of prisoners of war in Schachtjorsk, desperate Ukrainian soldiers and confident “Russians”. The “Donbassians” weren’t able to attack but they crushed every offensive move. In this time Sachartchenko appears. He replaced Borodai, which was a good idea, as everyone could see in the moment this guy shows up. He seems to be the best choice given that the young republic needed a fighter on its top. Strelkov earned his last victories, the encircled men on the Russian border gave up, Schachtjorsk didn’t fell…we know the story.
Then suddenly Strelkov had to go. The stupid German newspapers wrote that it was because he weren’t able to defeat the Ukrainian army, what was completely nonsense this time, but they had begun to believe their own bullshit, that the fall of Donezk must come every day……:)
I didn’t get it this time. A few days later the big offensive(the “shirokkomasstabnoje nastupljenje” as Sachartchenko called it) of Novorussia began (Cauldrons of Ilovaisk..you know it). So I thought that the removement of Strelkov was to please Moskau – they tried hard to destroy the picture of a Russian involvement and a Russian officer on the top of an army of “Ukrainian” insurgents would have been the wrong message…..:)) Strelkov left, Kononov was a big organizer, Motorola and Givi made great jobs – everything went fine….
Back in Russia Strelkov began to talk. He said that his move to leave Slawjansk wasn’t only by military necessity but by the fear that BORODAI could hand over Donezk and surrender. For me that seemed too far-fetched…..but who knows. The question became of less importance to me, after all the accusations against Surkov and the “betrayal of Minsk” came Debalzevo and since then nobody sober believes that anyone will give up the Donbass.
So…..where did I make a mistake, what did I miss?
Regards, Gunnar

106 Comments

Martin from Soviet East-Berlin on June 25, 2016 · at 12:28 pm EST/EDT

> trigger a religious war?

Oh, big surprise!
Isn’t that what religions have always been all about?

Easy to prevent that: Abandon all those religions.
But you don’t want that. So live with the fruits of religions.
- Bro on June 25, 2016 · at 2:05 pm EST/EDT
  
  Excellent point. When one’s own is always the “true” one, and there are so many, the table is perfectly set for “divide and conquer”.
  
  And who set that game up, thousands of years ago? This will take us to places like El Giza (and Mena House Hotel circa 1956, in my case) and Balbek, Lebanon, (also 1956, in my case), time permitting.
- The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 2:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  Martin, please tone down that kind of obnoxious and condescending tone which you have been constantly filling your posts with or I am simply going to ban you. Last warning.
  The Saker
  
  PS: following your latest batch of insults, you are now banned. Good-bye!
  - Spiral on June 25, 2016 · at 3:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    Not a good decision, Saker, as Martin and other atheists provide a pretty valid counterpoints. Do you actually want to preach only to those that agree with you?
    Even though I am an Orthodox Atheist, I am very interested in your historical and social analysis of religious movements.
    
    I know this is your site, and he was given warnings, and his choice of words may be grating, but expulsion displays spiritual vulnerability I did not expect from you.
    
    Yes, you have been patient with Marxist, communist and viewpoints other than yours by mostly refusing to enter dialog with them. Which is perfectly ok, but it has been noticed.
    
    I do like diversity of views on this site, including occasional troll, even though troll filtering requires extra work for moderators. Just as RF has over 180 ethnic minorities, not all of them friendly to RF, still they are given full freedom and are not expelled. Putin made sure he doesn’t repeat Stalin’s mistakes.
    
    I left a number of web sites after discussions became self aggrandizing, or boring, or devoid of content due to repetitive expulsions. I don’t think you want that.
    
    Regards, Spiral
    - The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 3:58 pm EST/EDT
      
      This has nothing to do with atheism and everything to do with Martin’s constant stream of inflammatory and insulting comments (most of which were intercepted by the mods and that you have therefore not seen). Remember moderation rule #3:
      
      “3 ) Any comment designed to make me angry will make me angry and will be removed in anger.”
      
      While it is, obviously, written tongue-in-cheek, it’s true meaning is “if you want to antagonize you will be kicked out”. Simple and, I think, fair. I have better things to do than to constantly deal with narcissistic personalities with a strong sense of entitlement.
      
      The truth is is that I have been fantastically patient with Martin, ignoring is numerous threats to leave the blog and then coming back, and that I am now tired not of his ideas, but his attitude. He seems to think that this is his blog or that we all owe him something. We don’t.
      
      Anyway, I replied to you this one time, but I don’t intend to do that (justifying moderation decisions) in the future. Please accept that the decision to ban somebody is one that I or the mods take and that nobody else knows all the facts.
      
      Cheers,
      
      The Saker
      
      PS: by the way, true to himself, the latest (attempted) post by Martin was a threat to come back here under a proxy and different ID. If that is not trolling then what is?
      
      PPS: and just to clarify – atheism/agnosticism are most definitely not banned (several Saker blog Team Leaders are atheist, including one Leninist, and I love them all and consider them my friends), but comments which are rude and disrespectful of religion are. Remember, this is a *RUSSIAN* blog and what goes for Moscow also goes here. Criticize religions if you want, but do that as an intelligent and well-mannered adult. But insult religions or religious people and, yes, it will get your comment trashed.
      
      Now I am going back to my thesis. See you on Wed!
      - The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 4:48 pm EST/EDT
        
        Well, just to give you a small taste of Martin’s tone, here is the last comment he tried to post here:
        ——-
        “@Saker: You darn LIAR.
        If you quote me, then post my complete message.
        Not some snippets.
        You behave exactly like western MSM assholes yourself.
        And NO: You are not a Russian and you are not in Moscow, you traitor preferred Switzerland and now Florida over Russia.
        Also, I did not threaten you to use proxies. I only told you that it is hillarious if you declare “from now on you BAN xyz”.
        Until now I always used my full name, you also have my personal details and real name etc.You are a thankless LIAR.
        Publish my full comments or SHUT UP.
        But don’t claim things which I never wrote and never did.
        You are Pathetic and try to rescue your credibility after you noticed that you made a wrong decision.
        But I have enough email addresses of friendly commentators and be sure that I send them the complete texts I wrote and also the Screenshots I took.
        If you really want to try it out, I can put them online and bombard your blog with the truth.”
        ——-
        So after this love fest, I think that you will understand my decision better.
        Okay, now I *really* need to go back to work.
        Hugs,
        The Saker
        
        sejmon on June 25, 2016 · at 7:36 pm EST/EDT
        
        GOOD RIDDANCE…
        
        Spiral on June 26, 2016 · at 5:19 am EST/EDT
        
        Thank you for the detailed argument, Saker. Got it.
        
        Regards, Spiral
      - Auslander on June 25, 2016 · at 5:29 pm EST/EDT
        
        Well done! He’s been getting overbearing and has chased a lot of the ‘old guard’ away from blog. With him and his clones gone mayhap things will return to normal. His trolling has been patently obvious for quite some time and the moderators will have to be on their guard, trolls don’t take well to being banned. It is a huge annoyance to see endless posts and links that are totally off the subject of a thread and he was the main, but not only, perpetrator of such posts.
        
        Auslander on June 25, 2016 · at 6:34 pm EST/EDT
        
        I think I will embellish on my previous post. I am a very old fashioned man and I follow what to some are archaic principles.
        
        On this blog there seems to be several open cafe’s at any given time where one can comment on any subject to one’s hearts’ content. For the blog posts that are not in cafe, I would respectfully recommend to adhere to the subject of the thread and not wander off subject to everything including the outbreak of teen aged acne in Burundi and the odd reminiscences of the plethora of eight toed chickens on Ascension Island.
        
        Let’s keep things on subject, ladies and gentleman, and continue the tradition of this blog as a fount of wisdom and informations that is religiously read every morning and all day by every ‘intelligence’ bureau in the world.
        
        Kindest regards
        
        Auslander
        
        Author
        Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK
        An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU
        
        Charles Fasola on June 26, 2016 · at 3:30 pm EST/EDT
        
        Auslander,
        
        I would ask, since you brought up the off-topic post scenario, that you not utilize the comments section as a vehicle to advertize the books you are the author of. Practicing what one preaches is definitely a virtue.
      - Grieved on June 25, 2016 · at 6:37 pm EST/EDT
        
        I like the way you police your site, Saker, and I wanted to offer my support for that. Sometimes too many comments or too zealous an approach can overpower a thread and render it impossible to read. Even the truth takes a light touch when you’re talking to other people.
        
        I confess that I didn’t approve of your moderation system when you started it, I thought it would stifle discussion, but I have to apologize for that thought now. It’s refreshing to come here and read some of the discussion. You have very intelligent and knowledgeable commenters (as well as moderators). Well done, if I may say. Thank you.
        
        The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 9:11 pm EST/EDT
        
        I confess that I didn’t approve of your moderation system when you started it,
        
        Neither did I. I hated it. When the blog was small I had a totally permissive policy – anything except commercial spam was allowed. But now this is impossible. Take a look at the Unz Review. I honestly marvel at Ron’s patience under deluge of racist, nasty and outright rude comments he gets and I admire Ron for his true commitment to free speech. But everytime I look at the comment section I tell myself that I don’t want my blog to turn into that kind of community.
        At heart I am a libertarian, hardcore, and I don’t believe in censorship at all. But here, on this blog, I am also the host and I cannot allow some individuals to hijack this space (heck, let them start their own blogs!).
        I am not happy about banning Martin, but I would be even more miserable if I let him, or anyone else, hijack the place. At the end of the day, I am the host and I set the rules and if somebody cannot live with that, they they need to find a better place, like the Unz Review maybe.
        I am deeply, deeply grateful that the mods are dealing with the worst of it, but after seeing *many* posts by Martin being flagged and removed by mods (remember that I see them all before making the last call on it), I decided that Martin’s posts were taking too much space in the trash folder and that he either needed to seriously cool it or leave. He does not accept that I make the rules here and this is why he is no longer welcome. I hate doing that, but that is the right thing to do and I will do that with no hesitation the next time around.
        And, as I said, this is a Russian blog and Russian rules are enforced here: insult religion or religious people and you will be detained. Which, considering that in 99% of the blogosphere the dissing or anything religious is not only allowed but even encouraged, is not a big loss. Wanna pour contempt on religion and religious people – great! Do that in ACLU-land, not in Russia.
        Hugs and cheers,
        The Saker
        
        Stranger on June 26, 2016 · at 11:58 am EST/EDT
        
        Saker,
        
        Though I have been a regular reader of your blog since 2014th, when this -old- and planned-scenario of Ukraine by Washington finally kicked into action- I have rarely commented.
        
        You have been right about so much, and I also very much enjoy the comments of your community/followers.
        Also the contributors to your site- they are fabulous, as Ischenko, Korybko- my favourite etc. etc…
        
        In Croatia we have a forum.hr, with sub forums on Rossia and Ukraine, if you spoke our language, you would be surprised how many of us see the truth behind the endless mirrors of endless lies…
        
        Anyway, I am glad that you exist, as I visit every day.
        
        Thank you…
    - Jamie on June 25, 2016 · at 7:13 pm EST/EDT
      
      As a Buddhist I find atheism to be a most mystical and irrational religion, so I kinda like them. To be an atheist implies that you have infinite vision and a total understanding of the universe. You have pierced all the infinities and creations and now come up back to us ‘little ones’ on Earth to assure us that there is no God
      
      Your search was total; there is no casual system outside the realm of your infinite awareness; you understand the processes behind the creations and thus know God does not exist; for how could he, without appearing in your perfect field of infinite seeing?
      
      Even the Buddha would not make mystical claims as implicitly bold as the atheist. Although he saw ‘endless world systems’ and aeons stretched out before him, past, present and future, Buddha still felt the creation was endless, inexpressible, and beyond mental comprehension.
      - Charles Fasola on June 26, 2016 · at 3:43 pm EST/EDT
        
        No matter your religious preferences, one need only to gaze into the night sky utilizing a high powered telescope, focusing upon a globular star cluster, to make one realize there are powers at work which cannot be down played. Forces and powers that are unexplainable without accetance of some kind of spiritual realm. If you cannot see it, it does not exist is blown out of the water you might say.
    - Purple Library Guy on June 27, 2016 · at 6:54 pm EST/EDT
      
      I’m an atheist and I don’t talk like that. Guy seems bannable to me.
      
      Although I must admit that all this stuff about multiple schismatic variants of Orthodoxy make me want to joke about the Judean People’s Front. But there you go, sectarianism is hardly limited to religion.
  - Nussiminen on June 25, 2016 · at 6:45 pm EST/EDT
    
    In one sense I do feel sorry for Martin, while I am in full agreement with Saker regarding the unfortunate necessity of banning him ultimately.
    
    To me — and I believe quite a few others — it was obvious that Martin was coming under ever more severe stress and strain privately. A seriously good contributor initially, his trials and tribulations “elsewhere” were taking their toll on him, thus turning his submissions here gradually into angry, incoherent spam, severely degrading the blog.
    
    I hope Martin will cope and come out strengthened from what I understand is a highly pressing/frightful period in his life. I know what it feels like; believe me.
    - Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 10:32 pm EST/EDT
      
      Nussiminen, Martin has had a hard time, I am glad you see that. You and I have also had our share.
      
      He was a good contributor for a long time and I read him with interest. Saker decides and I accept that, but it is good you show compassion.
      
      I know what a divorce is. I know what financial problems mean. It took me years to pay off my debts and one summer I almost stopped eating to feed the children. Do you know what saved me? My grandparents survival in the 30s. They had no income, but their four children grew up healthy and I tried to do as my grandparents knowing the impossible was possible. Problems like that also make it easier to understand the plight of the people in Donbass and around the world. There is a reason beggars only asked poor people for help in the past. Rich people closed their doors. And there is a reason men get angry after a divorce.
    - eimar on June 25, 2016 · at 11:36 pm EST/EDT
      
      Nussinimen – you’ve nailed it.
      
      It was obvious Martin was stressed up to the nines. He is clearly very bright , extremely idealistic, but those virtues can compress under severe strain and emerge as intolerance./ directionless anger.
      
      I also hope things improve for him personally . I hope the Saker – once he gets past his understandable irritation – allows him to return: they are not so different in their ideals/values, even if their politics differ.
      
      Meanwhile , he needs to concentrate on his thesis and let his excellent mod team handle this and other similar problems.
      - The Saker on June 26, 2016 · at 12:59 am EST/EDT
        
        I hope the Saker – once he gets past his understandable irritation – allows him to return
        
        I am not irritated at all. At most, I am saddened about having to ban a person. The question is this: *can* Martin
        
        a) accept that I, not he, sets the rules
        b) accept that one of my rules is a courteous (even if critical) tone towards religion and religious people
        c) abide by the rules (which are not open for negotiations)
        
        I think not. His latest load of insults towards me is the best proof of that.
        
        But, from my point of view, this is nothing personal. If he 1) admits his wrongs, 2) apologizes and 3) actually changes attitude, I would, of course, lift the ban (at least temporarily). To me this has never been about personalities, but about principles.
        
        Frankly, this is not the first time that I see somebody enthusiastically joining our community and then getting really angry at me, or the moderators, or somebody else, when they realize that it is not about them. I cannot allow narcissistic types to engage in a constant “me, myself and I” and ignore the fact that they are part of a community which has rules and a blog which has a host (me). I am trying hard to create a place for a free and intelligent exchange of views, and Herb has done a superb job, especially with the fantastic Café. We are all trying hard to create a space for adult, intelligent, interaction. Drama queens and those who constantly end up in conflicts with others (and I do *not* mean Martin here – there are others) need to realize that the rest of us have no obligation to put up with them.
        
        Finally, and frankly, how totally stupid does one have to be to go and spew crude and sophomoric anti-religious slogans on the blog of a guy who advertises his religious views with icons?! That is a totally *deliberate* act of rudeness. I personally don’t like the Papacy, Zionism and Wahabism – but I don’t go preaching my views on Papist, Zionist or Wahabi blog, do I?
        
        I hope that these explanations of mine make sense to you. Now at least I can point to that thread the next time around when a narcissistic personality type gets shown to the door.
        
        Kind regards,
        
        The Saker
  - Mordaz on June 27, 2016 · at 8:22 pm EST/EDT
    
    That’s too bad. I like Martin’s posts. Is there a “Martin from Soviet East-Berlin” blog?
- Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 8:18 pm EST/EDT
  
  Everything, Martin, everything that requires believing in it, is religion. Ideologies, social projects etc. Even the science is religion to a great degree. One of my colleagus says: ” I do not believe in Christ, I believe in science” , in a quite aggressive way. And everything can be used to put people against each other.
  PS. I am agnostic, I do not know, despite the fact that I am familiar in details with the main religions. But I follow the traditions of my ancestors.
- Anonymous on June 27, 2016 · at 11:06 am EST/EDT
  
  Once again an “atheist” fails to see the difference between “cause of war” and “pretext for war”.
teranam13 on June 25, 2016 · at 1:43 pm EST/EDT

Brexit is making them crazy so to try to kill Russia by a thousand cuts is probably the best they can do. They will make sure that the next big Western “election” is better “run” for more appropriate “results”. Arrogance is their downfall. The political leadership ( not the military) will always underestimate the intelligence and skill of the Russians and the ability of the Deep State USA’s paid poodles ( so 60’s that phrase!) to control the masses of Europe.

My military guru thinks Sept 18 is some kind of date the Hegemon is building toward and organizing around. It feels like just before late Sept 2015 with storm clouds gathering.
- Mulga Mumblebrain on June 26, 2016 · at 9:21 am EST/EDT
  
  With the Brexit, and the mutterings of exits from various other EU states, the Empire needs to drag the rabble back in line, before they lose their loyal colony. So what better to get the jingoism flowing and the atmosphere hysterical enough to declare all deviants ‘the Enemy within’, than a nice war. I reckon Syria and/or Iran are obvious candidates, but the psychos in Mordor-on-the-Potomac may just be mad enough to have Ukraine feature, despite the obvious risks.
  - eimar on June 26, 2016 · at 10:32 am EST/EDT
    
    Syria is definitely still ‘hot’.
    
    Mossad still want a Sunnistan run by their good pals al-Nusra, though the hope of igniting a region-wide Sunni-Shia conflict are drastically diminished.
    
    The ‘Assad-must-go’ mantra has been re-ignited with the latest announcement from Clinton apparatchik , Fourtnoy:
    
    http://en.news-front.info/2016/06/22/the-looming-us-war-on-russia/
    
    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they tried something on several fronts simultaneouly – Ukraine, Syria and Estonia with maybe ‘Russian agents ‘ blamed for some terror-attack in Poland…
  - Nussiminen on June 26, 2016 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT
    
    Unfortunately for the Empire, to really drag the Euro-trash back in line would require massive, now totally unaffordable, reformist bribery like in the so-called golden age of 1945 – 1975. That strategy was a fabulous success of the US Empire in the realm of winning hearts and minds. It turned all but the entire population of Western Europe into die-hard Empire loyalists and reactionary chauvinists.
    
    Today’s Populist Right across Europe has emerged largely because neoliberalism and its institutional cluster enforcing global imperialist reaction are “failing to deliver”. The straw which broke the camel’s back was the refugee crisis where Global Apartheid was unceremoniously ditched in a shady deal with Turkey’s Erdogan.
    
    Much of Western Europe and the US are now deindustrialised. This is why reformism definitely is no longer an option. Last but not least, the Zionazis themselves have had a profound “change of heart”. Bringing mayhem, squalor, chaos, and bloodshed to their hitherto loyal subjects means nothing to them. Liberalism is on its last legs.
Lysander on June 25, 2016 · at 2:31 pm EST/EDT

Surely Russia has to have an option somewhere between just sitting back and taking it and sending the army to Kiev.

Surely Russia must have means to send its own message to Ukrainians. Even if Russian radio and TV are banned, there must be a Russian “voice of america” that gets through. In both Russian and Ukrainian, I hope.

And surely Russia has covert options for real violence. For example, identifying the worst agitators and blowing them up in their cars. Not necessarily the most famous ones who would get the most media attention when killed, but the middle management street thugs who actually organize the mobs that burn the churches. Once they know there is a steel price to be paid, they will be much harder to recruit.

I agree any overt military intervention could end up a disaster. I agree showing enormous patience has its benefits for Russia. But unlimited patience does not.
- The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 2:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  Well, first of all Russian information does get through to the Ukraine via the Internet, and radio and TV can be accessed via sat dishes. So those who want can get any info they want, not just the Russian one.
  As for violent options, sure they are there, but they are exceedingly dangerous: not only can they result in blowback, but they would substantiate the Ukie myth about the “hand of Moscow” behind every bad event.
  It is much better for Russia to let the Nazi crazies and the oligarchs rip each other into shreds and watch from afar. I would even say that doing nothing is the key to success, at least doing nothing covert. Overly, keep the same language, patiently repeating the same stuff over and over and over and over again and wait for each Russian warning to materialize. It is of absolute and paramount importance to quite literally *force* the Ukrainian people to realize that 1) Moscow is not the enemy 2) that they were lied to. *ANY* Russian intervention, however well intentioned, will weaken these two key elements of the Russian informational war against the Nazis.
  Sending in special forces teams, or killer agents, or initiating a massive economic war is *EXACTLY* what the Ukie and western propaganda machine needs and such a move would always yield a long term strategic defeat even if it brings a short term tactical success.
  Just imagine if somebody blow up, say, the so-called “Patriarch” Filaret: yes, that would remove one scumbag off the scene and feel good. But then another 20 scumbags would fill his place, and Filaret would be turned into a “martyr” killed by the evil agents of Putin. Who needs that?
  Instead let the likes of Filaret, Savchenko, Liashko and Parubii run the country for another couple of years and see if that brings the population back to the real world.
  I hope that all is well with you, kind regards,
  The Saker
  - Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 9:33 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks a lot, Saker. I guess Russians have much more patience than I do :-)
    - The Saker on June 26, 2016 · at 12:32 am EST/EDT
      
      Same here. Oh how many times have I fantasized about the Russian military smashing the Urkonazis and freeing all of the Ukraine, at least until Kiev. But it is one thing to daydream as a blogger, and quite another to give the order. It took my a while to accept that Putin’s strategy was the right one, but now I really do believe it.
      - Blondinka Florida on June 26, 2016 · at 4:23 am EST/EDT
        
        Russia’s patience will end the moment NATO tries to put a base in Odessa.
  - Anonymous on June 27, 2016 · at 12:54 am EST/EDT
    
    Saker
    
    You write, “As for violent options, sure they are there, but they are exceedingly dangerous: not only can they result in blowback, but they would substantiate the Ukie myth about the “hand of Moscow” behind every bad event. It is much better for Russia to let the Nazi crazies and the oligarchs rip each other into shreds and watch from afar. I would even say that doing nothing is the key to success, at least doing nothing covert. Overly, keep the same language, patiently repeating the same stuff over and over and over and over again and wait for each Russian warning to materialize. It is of absolute and paramount importance to quite literally *force* the Ukrainian people to realize that 1) Moscow is not the enemy 2) that they were lied to. *ANY* Russian intervention, however well intentioned, will weaken these two key elements of the Russian informational war against the Nazis.”
    
    This is absolutely key. Everyone ought to reread that analysis (at least two more times) and think about it deliberately, as it is so very important to the situation.
    
    There are other sub-component to this, which are really other aspects to what you have already stated. They confirm why your analysis is the right one. This is about principle.
    
    As I understand matters the present leadership team in Russia seek a multi-polar world wherein people can trade and have voluntary, mutually beneficial exchanges of one sort or another with each other, even if they happen to live in different countries and live by different cultures. To state you are working towards a multi-polar world and then fail to recognise the sovereignty of other nations and states would by hypocrisy. It would immediately be realised that you are not serious about your stated principles. It would be implied that said principles were mere rhetorical verbiage, empty of content, empty of morality, dishonest and cynical politician speak- false propaganda in other words.
    
    The facts demonstrate that it is Russia which has stuck to principle, even in the face of severest provocation. Slowly and steadily the message is getting through to many, many people that a) Russian government is not an enemy & b) Russian government is serious about its goals of a multi-polar world system and is not lying about its aims. Reliable consistency of approach and action builds trust and brings about the building of bridges between people.
    
    No-one ought to forget that Russia’s leaders have specifically stated on several occasions that they recognise state sovereignty and that international law ought to be respected. Everyone is free to judge them by how their actions compare with their statements. They are sending a message by statement and by action.
    
    —
    
    Final thought. It sure takes courage to live up to one’s principles. One’s words are always tested by one’s actions. People make judgments on the result of that testing. The message does get through.
    
    Siotu
Auslander on June 25, 2016 · at 2:34 pm EST/EDT

I don’t think Patriarch Kirill will allow a religious war to start. He is as intelligent and diplomatic as Mr. Putin and neither of them will allow anyone to drag Russia in to any kind of war. I am not saying they will not and do not act behind the scenes but I think the chances of any success from Langley are in the negative numbers region.
- The Saker on June 25, 2016 · at 3:44 pm EST/EDT
  
  The problem here is that, yielding to the political pressure of the day, the Moscow Patriarchate decided to grant the Ukrainians a bizarre kind of “autonomy” which is short of autocephaly (real and full autonomy for a Church).
  
  The idea that each country/nation needs its own Church is, by the way, a condemned heresy called phyletism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phyletism).
  
  The key issue here is that:
  
  1) the Moscow Patiarchate created Filaret, and
  2) the Moscow Patriarchate created the “Autonomous” Ukrainian Church.
  
  They are therefore in a terrible position to try to intervene.
  
  Also, the Ukie Rada has just written to the Patriarch of Constantinople asking him to take the Ukraine under his rule. At the same time, the so-called “Council” the Patriarch of Constantinople wanted to gather mainly to give himself some kind of importance has now failed due to several churches, including the Moscow Patriarchate, refusing to attend. So he is now frustrated and capable of the worst. I hope that he won’t do anything stupid, but thing look really bad right now. And, remember, Wikileaks seem to indicate that he is a voluntary pawn of the USA…
  
  Kind regards,
  
  The Saker
  - Gregory Manning on June 25, 2016 · at 4:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    I believe the EP and the “council” have declined to take on the Ukrainian issue.
  - Richard Cley on June 25, 2016 · at 9:37 pm EST/EDT
    
    Wikileaks is a double edged sword and the handle is just as deadly as the blade.
    
    I believe that Ukraine is your blind spot and that despite your intimate knowledge, you are a long way from perceiving what is likely.
    
    Putin has a tendency to let matters deteriorate before dealing with them, as you must be aware, consequently your religious war concept is actually inadequate.
    
    He will wait until starvation strikes a significant minority of non Russian Ukrainians and then supply free food, free clothing, free fuel to these people to show up not only the inhumanity of Poroshenko but also the US/EU.
    
    While I am not sure of the exact scenario another Holdomor is more than likely as much by accident than design. That together with inept leadership in all areas of the AngloZionists…US, EU and Ukraine will bring the next Guardian revelation: Putin Murders Starving Ukrainians With Free Food.
    
    And then there are the Russians invited to Libya bombing pro Western rebels the US says are fighting for freedom and democracy. A gas attack in Libya on innocent civilians. Killary Clinton deciding to bomb Tripoli for humanitarian reasons…you know the scenario…and, well, only gullible western tv audiences believing the lies.
    
    The Empire can’t get away with it again can they?
    
    Yes they can.
    
    Or maybe not.
    
    Just like the EU lie, these dictatorships can not last forever.
    
    So it is either an unwinable WW3 for the AngloZionists or withdrawal from Europe and the Middle East.
    
    Free food…hard to argue against free food.
    
    It will be something like that…religion is no longer enough…Christianity has had its day in the west…no one cares about the Christians being murdered by the freedom and democracy rebels Obama supports in Iraq/Syria.
    
    Starvation, (see the way it is mercilessly used by western NGOs to extort money in the form of donations), will be the straw. Straws…camels.
    - A.T. on July 02, 2016 · at 10:54 am EST/EDT
      
      The Christian narrative is omnipresent in the West. Particularly the meme of End Times and the inevitability of conflict.
      
      http://www.againstbombing.com/ArmageddonUpdates.htm
      
      The rapture-ready even have incentive to make it happen; if they can foster the apocalypse while they are alive, the can skip dying and go straight to heaven.
      
      http://christianity.about.com/od/faqhelpdesk/a/whatisrapture.htm
      
      Doesn’t matter if one is religious or secular about it, Christianity drives the dominant social memes.
  - eimar on June 25, 2016 · at 11:53 pm EST/EDT
    
    Saker – you haven’t mentioned the Turkish neo-Ottoman aspect to all these manouvres in the not-so-dark.
    
    Specifically the Erdogan angle.
    
    Is this because you don’t think there’s any connection ?
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 26, 2016 · at 9:26 am EST/EDT
    
    What do you know about the cancellation of the Pan-Orthodox Conference intended to be held in Crete after years of planning, but now unraveling, to the BBC’s delight, for one?
- Secret Agent on June 25, 2016 · at 3:55 pm EST/EDT
  
  They will just do what they did in Iraq and start setting car bombs off in front of churches. Works every time.
SysATI on June 25, 2016 · at 3:17 pm EST/EDT

“There is also a possibility that the Patriarch of Constantinople might decide to “heed the cries of the faithful” and recognize either the UOC-KP and/or the UAOC as an autonomous part of the Constantinople Patriarchate thus basically taking the entire Ukraine under his control.”

There is yet another option…
You know how Erdogan is crazy, so it is not completely impossible to imagine that he would want to help Tatars with “his own church” as Turkey tried to do it with the Gagaus Turks of Moldovia in the past…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autocephalous_Turkish_Orthodox_Patriarchate
- RMM on June 25, 2016 · at 6:13 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thanks for the link. I’d never heard of this “Autocephalous Turkish Orthodox Patriarchate.” Bad business, this.
  Well, then, the cocktail would become even more explosive with this one added.
  A religious war is the easiest to set off – and once sparked off, it surely won’t run out of fuel…
  And there is one “Patriarch Filaret” who’s only waiting for a word from Kerry & co – see the two together here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukrainian-church-leader-likens-putin-to-cain-and-says-he-is-under-the-influence-of-satan-9716344.html
- eimar on June 25, 2016 · at 11:55 pm EST/EDT
  
  Ah – posted before seeing this.
  
  My question too.
Dennis Leary on June 25, 2016 · at 4:03 pm EST/EDT

Thanks for this sharing this very interesting development, and I hope your thesis is progressing well, as well as the fund raising. I sent you one hundred dollars by snail mail.

If I were to write a thesis concerning the church fathers, and their core concern with love. I would focus on Saint Denys and his use of the divine names. I would show that Saint John the Apostle’s teaching that “God is Love” is the core teaching of the fathers, and that God’s name above all names is love.

I would argue that the fathers developed Christianity, and fought many battles in doing so; and that the issues that they dealt with can, and should be, reduced to love; per Augustine’s: “My heart is restless until it rests with Thee.”

The possibility of the three versions of Orthodoxy in Ukraine being used by empire to stir up hatred is not a new thing. The Roman empire constantly meddled in church affairs. The Emperor himself presided at the council of Nicea in 325, to bring order out of chaos, unlike the empire of today which tries to bring chaos out of order.

I wish I could start my life over, knowing what I think I know now. People used to call me Father Dennis or Father Leary, and I am a father who fathered a son. No wonder I like the Fathers. I think they did a good job of condensing the information in dogmas suited for the times. But I also believe that these dogmas must be explored and opened up to new depths of understanding, which they contain incognito.

Then we wouldn’t have these hurtful religion based wars. Religion literally means “re-ligere,” to tie back into the source. That source is love, distilled in the thought: God is Love. So far, so good, but Jesus said: “What I have done, you will do too, and even greater.” That greater, as Saint Denys and the Fathers understood, was to recover love, and to uncover her repression.

I’m grateful for this vineyard, and the freedom it gives me to express myself, in ways that others may think is unorthodox. The Council of Nicea banned many Christians of the time as unorthodox in the interests of empire and unity. Too bad they couldn’t reach an agreement based on love. Too bad, also, that the Ukrainian orthodox and unorthodox can’t get together in love.

I just noticed that Martin from SEB is banned. Too bad. Too bad we can’t come together in love. I think he was saying: abandon religions because they are about war. I think religions are about many things because at their core, they are about love which is many things also, including war; as in the war Russia is fighting.

Religion is in my blood. I’ve been initiated and ordained in old and new age religions. Religions have always done battle with the empires of the world. The fact they often are corrupted by the world only speaks to our human frailty. If we were to abandon religion entirely, as suggested by Martin, we would only have created a non-religious religion of no religion.

Religions are not perfect; in fact, often far from perfect but they do provide a link to the source of religion which is love. Eventually, I verily believe that God is going to return to his true name, which is love, as foretold by Jesus, the apostles and the fathers. Then God will happily retire his name of God, and simply be known as the Lover, or Love, or Lovers.

We’re not there yet, but we’re getting there.
- Vercia V on June 25, 2016 · at 9:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  well said Dennis. Thank you for your comment, shows again the loving soul that carries you.
  I regret as well that Martin is banned, although I understand Saker very well and hope we all commentators will also realize and try to be more careful as some ways rapidly become unacceptable for others.
  - Scott on June 26, 2016 · at 2:19 am EST/EDT
    
    Hi, Dennis and Vercia,
    
    Do you, guys, understand what internet troll is?
    Do you know what IP spoofing is?
    https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=IP+spoofing+definition
    
    Dennis, it is somewhat a macabre idea ‘to get together in love” with an office of IT and PR specialists and content writers, whose job is to monitor innocent sites like ours and immediately post their toxic “comments” as soon as we post something.
    They make very good money, we work for free.
    
    We have been very patient with “martin” but we have been getting so many complains from our regular readers.
    
    For the past two years, the same paragraphs about fake “communist” ideas, the same sentences about a “Jewish cult.”
    I have never seen him referring to Christianity by its name, why? Because he is not allowed to do so.
    The moment he wrote that he visited Sumy in Ukraine, a town no tourist would ever go, unless they are Hassidic Jews, that’s was it.
    
    We can’t come in love with people and organizations that seek to destroy us, it’s absurd.
    
    As a recovering Catholic you must understand that as Christians we are told to love our (personal) enemies, but we never told to love the enemies of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.
    - Vercia V on June 26, 2016 · at 8:11 pm EST/EDT
      
      Dear Scott & Saker
      Thanks a lot for the clarification. As we have no access to all of his comments, as according to Sakers words, many will not be allowed to become public, therefore our view is limited. I am OK with all this. I am also more than OK to know that you guys take this issue as seriously as you do. My comment was a soft way of letting you know that there are more people doing the same in a more sophisticated way or simply less rude way, though not less annoying.
      Thank you also specially for your last paragraph.
    - Waly on June 27, 2016 · at 5:53 am EST/EDT
      
      Hi Scott,
      
      You wrote about Martin “I have never seen him referring to Christianity by its name, why? Because he is not allowed to do so.”
      I also noticed without understanding some strange pattern in his logo. Why this? Where does this comes from?
- WizOz on June 26, 2016 · at 7:44 am EST/EDT
  
  @The Council of Nicea banned many Christians of the time as unorthodox in the interests of empire and unity. Too bad they couldn’t reach an agreement based on love
  
  A bit of a hasty conclusion. The task of the Council (of all Councils, at that) was to reach an agreement based on love of Truth. The Truth is Christ, the Logos and Wisdom of God (“I am the Way, the Truth and the Life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me”). The Truth that Christians confessed was “that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God. And we have known and believed the love that God hath to us. God is love; and he that dwelleth in love dwelleth in God, and God in him…”. “Every spirit that confesseth that Jesus Christ is come in the flesh is of God: 3 And every spirit that confesseth not that Jesus Christ is come in the flesh is not of God: and this is that spirit of antichrist, whereof ye have heard that it should come; and even now already is it in the world”. Therefore ‘love’ cannot bring orthodox and unorthodox toghether, on the contrary it separates them.
  There is an underlying implication that it is the Church (the Orthodox especially) who lacks of ‘love’ when keeping at bay the ones who deny the Truth. But the ones who really lack love are the heretics and schismatics. What the Council of Nicea did was to expose the error of the Arians, which amounted to the denial of the truth that “Jesus is the Son of God and sent his Son to be the propitiation for our sins”, the font of all heresies.
Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 4:17 pm EST/EDT

Nice analysis, but I must say. I was expecting some comment over the BREXIT and the ramifications for the global empire……
Gunnar on June 25, 2016 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT

I don’t think, that this plan would work. I’m not saying, that the US won’t try it anyway. They will do whatever possible to weaken Putin and Russia. They may take any incident as a chance to trigger the war. The more the Ukraine is destroyed – the better, blame it on Russia, make them pay. When nobody else pays….Putin has the problem of “letting alone the brotherly people of Ukraine”. Really, I don’t believe in the plan you “suggest”, because I came to the conclusion that most of western strategists aren’t capable to analyze what’s really going on. Debalzevo lets me think this way. Why the Ukrainians provoked this? – anyone knew that the forces of Novorussia were able to push them back. And they did, despite western mercenaries, despite western help….
As I remember, some British general said, that they lost Crimea because they lack of Russian speaking officers. On the other hand you have some infanterists in Donezk who analyze the military operations in terms that suggest, they read Clausewitz and Jomini…..
So my conclusion: “Your plan” is too brilliant for them :)))
I believe that the Russian government came to the conclusion that the next stages of Ukrainian war are inevitable, that’s why Putin refused to join another round of the “Normandie four”, saying that it is the Ukraine, who has to implement some steps of the “Minsk protocol” first. He knows that he will be blamed exactly for this (by the west) when the war goes on. He decided to take the risk.
And he is not without options. What if he decides to do, what everybody in the West is blaming him for? What if he calls Sachartchenko and say to him: Do what you want to do, push these cowards back to Kiev! Or better, force them to Poland. May they see what they can do whith these morons. Did you follow the news on dan-news.info or on voicesevas.ru? Sachartchenko holds talks via internet with every bigger city in Ukraine, they can send him questions. What they ask is: When do you (the army of Novorussia) come and free us from this nazi-scum.
I have the feeling that Putin is holding back this potential of a new “Russian spring”, I don’t know whether he fears this power of “pravoslavism”, nationalism, panslavism…..however you call it or if he leaves this as a “strategic reserve” – when the people in Russia might turn against him, when he does “nothing” – what might be a real danger as you said yourself.
Please take my excuses for my poor English, I’m German and not used to write in your tongue :)
- S113 on June 25, 2016 · at 5:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  On the topic of Putin holding back, and what he may fear, I came across this 2015 Saker video that opened my eyes about that:
  
  /nikolai-starikov-why-putin-doesnt-recognize-dlpr-as-sovereign-states-eng-subs-de-subs/
  
  It’s worth a re-post for those, like me, who missed it the first time.
  - Jonathan on June 25, 2016 · at 9:07 pm EST/EDT
    
    I took a look at this video but Starikov’s logic escapes me. He seems to be saying that the LPR/DPR serve as a distraction to keep Kiev’s focus away from attacking Russia or Crimea. But he further seems to claim that if these republics were recognized Kiev would then simply forget about them for the time being and, again, attack Russia/Crimea. Perhaps I am missing the point or that Kiev government logic has its own bizarre pathways that I cannot replicate.
    - S113 on June 26, 2016 · at 2:14 am EST/EDT
      
      When I watched it, I thought he was saying that the DPR/LPR remain as the primary focus of Ukronazi attention as long as they are still unsettled, even though the Ukronazis want to focus on an assault on Russia. It’s The divide and conquer approach, with the Ukro govt, army, militias divided between attacking Russia and dealing with DPR/LPR. Conflict on mutiple fronts. Otherwise, the Ukro attention would be concentrated solely on uniting and mounting a suicidal, civilian-murdering attack on Russia, with plenty of damage to civilians on both sides.
      - Jonathan on June 26, 2016 · at 12:24 pm EST/EDT
        
        @S113 I did get that. My point was that I couldn’t see how recognizing the Donbass as a separate state would have settled anything. Crimea is somewhat “settled” for the moment. However, this is essentially due to the commitment of the Russian military to defend it. I couldn’t see how Kiev would have accepted an independent Donbass unless the Russian armed forces forced them to do so.
        
        In any case, I’ve found it too confusing to constantly second-guess what Putin is actually planning even if the plan is at odds with what the RF government has actually stated and done. For example, Minsk II requires that the Donbass be reintegrated into Ukraine (peacefully). Is the RF serious about Minsk II, or not? If so, then that would imply that the RF has not recognized the Donbass as an independent state because they do not support independence for these regions.
        
        S113 on June 26, 2016 · at 2:02 pm EST/EDT
        
        @Jonathon, you do make a good point. I think the idea that Starikov is putting forward is how critically important it is to have a third independent actor involved. To avoid the polarisation of us vs. them (good vs. evil, black vs. white, angels vs. demons and so on). Starikov seems to me to state that it is far more dangerous to have Russia (Moscow, the Kremlin) vs. Ukraine exclusively with no other separate representative involved in the conflict.
        
        The comparison with Crimea doesn’t match because Crimea has reunited with Russia. And on the ground, the Ukro Nazis (“us”) do seem to just equate Crimea with Russia (“them”) which gives some validity to Starikov’s argument. If Russia recognized LPR/DPR, then these republics would be viewed, on the ground, as officially part of “them”, and therefore, the enemy. As it stands, they are not part of ” them”, they are still sort of part of”us”, and in any case, they require a third category for this conflict. Polarisation goes aside.
        
        I think Starikov is putting this forward as an established geopolitical or military concept rather than as his own theory of Putin-ology. :-) He’s assuming that Putin is also following this established concept for geopolitical conflicts.
    - Vor on June 26, 2016 · at 2:35 am EST/EDT
      
      Starikov is arguing that if the Kremlin were to formally – like officially – recognize DNR/LNR – then they would draw attention away from them, the people’s republics, & focus attention directly on themselves, i.e. Moscow. It’s basically a technicality, & I think a fairly important one. I’ll give you a practical example, during the 1990s Yugoslav conflicts, specifically Bosnia, Milosevic always negotiated on behalf of the Serbs in Bosnia, i.e. Karadzic & co. In so doing, he made Serbia a party to the conflict, whilst denying that Serbia was directly involved. As a result he brought a lot of unecessary avoidable pressure on Serbia, & on himself, & ultimately it ended up with him being indicted for war crimes. This was diplomatic idiocy of the highest order. Putin is not making Milosevic’s mistake & he’s saying that he can not decide anything on behalf of DNR/LNR, at best he can maybe influence them. I think Starikov is more or less correct, more rather than less, it’s a very thin line but in diplomacy & war, that’s always the case. So for Kiev, they basically have to maintain attention on DNR/LNR whether they want to or not, Putin is forcing them to because he’s saying that they are sovereign, they’ve fought for their autonomy, they have won their rights & now you – i.e. Kiev – must respect them. Either that or have another go at war, but I think everyone knows how that would end, the Ukrainian army would get wacked, one more major Debaltsevo defeat & that would be the end of that army, & that would translate into the end of the Ukrainian state itself. Self destruction basically. They are in a bind, one of their own making, so is Washington, they don’t know how to play this either, they wish they could just do Bosnia all over again, but Putin is no Milosevic, & thank God for that.
      - eimar on June 26, 2016 · at 8:06 am EST/EDT
        
        Yes.
        
        It would also de facto play into the propaganda that Russia is a party to the conflict , vis-a-vis the Minsk agreement , instead of a broker .
        
        Putin is stickler for principle – in this case, sovereignity. The main momentum for real change will have to come from the Ukrainians themselves. Any direct military intervention on behalf of Russians in the east would also open a can of worms in the Baltics who have sizeable Russian populations too. A direct threat to the borders of the RF is the only basis for open military response.
        
        It takes time for a peoples consciousness to change – in the Ukrainians case , to remember what they have been brianwashed into forgetting – that they are Russian in all but name.
- Scott on June 25, 2016 · at 6:33 pm EST/EDT
  
  Hi, Gunnar,
  
  “Debalzevo lets me think this way. Why the Ukrainians provoked this? – anyone knew that the forces of Novorussia were able to push them back. And they did, despite western mercenaries, despite western help…”
  
  The so called “civil war” in Ukraine, or as Washington calls it “war with Russia in Ukraine” was a CIA false flag operation initiated by a group of paid agents provocateurs. By plan, they were supposed to start armed actions, to get as many people involved as possible to implicate Russian government, and then retreat leaving Donbass to be taken over by NATO and Nazis. They had done so with Slovyansk and other towns. They were about to retreat from Donetsk, when the initiative was politely taken from there hands. Do you recall how many fake “Russian generals” and “heroes” were simply removed from power?
  
  However, NATO and CIA weren’t notified about such predicament. Strelkov-Girkin was kept in a basement naked for two weeks to insure that he won’t be seen or heard in the most crucial moment.
  
  By CIA plan, “Debalzevo had to be a total defeat of self-defenders. What CIA didn’t know, that their people weren’t in power any longer.
  - Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 7:22 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks Scott. You must have access to information I don’t have. Was Strelkov under arrest for two weeks? Was the civil war engineered? Perhaps you are saving the sources for your book. All I can say is that Strelkov was too eager to start an armed rebellion. I wish there had been more talk and less shooting. Did Strelkov really have military experience?
  - Gunnar on June 25, 2016 · at 9:14 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts Scott. However, I don’t get it. Maybe you are right, let’s say Slawjansk was a false flag. Who’s agent is Strelkov then? He ‘s moving free in Russia, gives interviews, sometimes military expertise. I remember him explaining the moves of the armies in the TV as the Debalzevo-Cauldron was formed. Who held Strelkov in a basement?
    In the time of the battle for Debalzevo Sachartchenko was in power a few months….so he can’t be one of the CIA guys right? So why they shouldn’t know, that their guys weren’t in the right positions anymore? Last one: That I thought that the Ukrainians hadn’t the ability to hold the lines at Debalzevo was the result of just reading sites like goloss sevastopolja, DNRTV.ru and so on. Knowing a little Russian was enough to know that the Ukrainian army had not enough officers and skilled soldiers for the entire front, only in Popasnaya the Lugansk army wasn’t able to break through the lines. Why did I know that and the CIA not? That’s only one of the reasons that I came to the conclusion that if you have to analyze western politics then you have to concentrate on their results, not on their intentions – because these both so seldom come together or with other words: These morons don’t know nothing, not what country the Ukraine is, they know nothing about the history, the languages there and so on. In Germany we have a woman defence minister. She said ( I’m not kidding): “To explain the Russian actions in Ukraine in regard to the Russian history is the wrong approach.” That’s the kind of people who lead the western world. So I don’t believe in any beautifully elaborated plans. They had this “Colour revolution”. Since then everything went wrong and I suspect they just don’t know why.
    - Scott on June 26, 2016 · at 3:07 am EST/EDT
      
      Gunnar,
      
      These are great questions.
      I will try to answer them in my book.
      
      If you have any other questions, please, post them to my attention.
      
      regards
      Scott
      - Gunnar on June 26, 2016 · at 10:39 am EST/EDT
        
        Scott, thanks for the compliment. All right I got a lot of questions. I think the best way to ask them is to lay down my version in regard of the retreat from Slawjansk and the further developments. Everywhere it contradicts your picture – there is a question :)
        The guys around Strelkov seemed to be the best fighters the young republic had to this time. They shot down helicopters, planes and forced the Ukraine to deploy nearly the entire army around Slawjansk. To encircle the “Strelkovzevs” they needed a few weeks. This time Borodai was in charge in Donezk and it was pretty quiet there. Lugansk had problems. Bolotov seemed to be a charismatic leader with a lack of military luck – or there just weren’t enough capacities this time. (What most people like me didn’t see this time was the formation of “Oplot”,”Priszrak” and so on…this is a real big topic, most western journalists didn’t get this one until now :) ).
        Back to Strelkov. It was clear that the units of Novorussia were too isolated. An attempt to break the encirclement of Slawjansk from the south failed. But it was the first time, the defenders of Donbass showed to be able for a big organized attack. I remember how often I discussed the necessity of an united command for Novorussias army.
        Lots of people were praying that Slawjansk shouldn’t fall. I had the “opposite” opinion. I thought Strelkov should give up this town, move to Donezk an found a united command for all women and men who would like to fight for Novorussia. As I saw it, he was the most admired military commander this time and he seemed to know what he was doing.
        The breakthrough in south of Slawjansk and the “rally” to Donezk was interpreted by most westerners as the beginning of the end and I’m still proud, that I thought, that it was a reasonable tactical move and the possible beginning of united efforts to crush the “punishers” of Donbass. As Strelkov arrived in Donezk he acted like Napoleon, some changes in the artillery and next day hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers at the airport gave up. He organized the defense of the city. The “Ukies” came and took a lot of villages but not the city, not Gorlovka, not Lugansk.
        At this time I began to count the losses of both sides, I read the stories about the “voentorg”, about the “vacationers” and the hundreds of foreign fighters who came “in return” for the Russians who fight fascism once. So I got a picture of what was going on.
        A difficult point of time was as “Strelkows men” encircled a unit of Ukrainians at the Russian border while at the same time the Ukrainian army attacked Schachtjorsk and Krasnii Luch with about 250 armored vehicles. This time I saw videos and photos from the fights in Schachtjorsk and saw that there the defenders of Slawjansk became heroes once again.
        As I said, I had begun counting the losses. And I was calculating with a very basic mathematical model, that the Ukrainian attack would collapse in about 3-4 weeks. There were videos of prisoners of war in Schachtjorsk, desperate Ukrainian soldiers and confident “Russians”. The “Donbassians” weren’t able to attack but they crushed every offensive move. In this time Sachartchenko appears. He replaced Borodai, which was a good idea, as everyone could see in the moment this guy shows up. He seems to be the best choice given that the young republic needed a fighter on its top. Strelkov earned his last victories, the encircled men on the Russian border gave up, Schachtjorsk didn’t fell…we know the story.
        Then suddenly Strelkov had to go. The stupid German newspapers wrote that it was because he weren’t able to defeat the Ukrainian army, what was completely nonsense this time, but they had begun to believe their own bullshit, that the fall of Donezk must come every day……:)
        I didn’t get it this time. A few days later the big offensive(the “shirokkomasstabnoje nastupljenje” as Sachartchenko called it) of Novorussia began (Cauldrons of Ilovaisk..you know it). So I thought that the removement of Strelkov was to please Moskau – they tried hard to destroy the picture of a Russian involvement and a Russian officer on the top of an army of “Ukrainian” insurgents would have been the wrong message…..:)) Strelkov left, Kononov was a big organizer, Motorola and Givi made great jobs – everything went fine….
        Back in Russia Strelkov began to talk. He said that his move to leave Slawjansk wasn’t only by military necessity but by the fear that BORODAI could hand over Donezk and surrender. For me that seemed too far-fetched…..but who knows. The question became of less importance to me, after all the accusations against Surkov and the “betrayal of Minsk” came Debalzevo and since then nobody sober believes that anyone will give up the Donbass.
        So…..where did I make a mistake, what did I miss?
        Regards, Gunnar
        
        Gunnar on June 27, 2016 · at 12:39 pm EST/EDT
        
        One more thought about the removed “russian heroes”. I always supposed they were local mobsters taking their chance to get in the new political structures. At first the insurgents worked with them, as soon as guys like Sachartchenko did take the lead, they were removed as soon as possible. It’s similar to Sicilia in WWII, as the Americans has to cooperate with the local Mafia. I think these structures are a specific problem of states with “wild histories” (an elaborate analysis about this is not appropriate in this special discussion). Some people they couldn’t get lost until today, think of Chodakovskie( the “founder” of “Vostok”) , a guy Strelkov doesn’t like very much to put it mildly….:)
        A more prominent problem with the economic/criminal structures of the Ukraine may be Rinat Achmetov….they need him, he earns his money via the ports of Mariupol and that would end at the very moment, they take the city because it then would be a part of the areas the western sanctions are for. Again, please tell me, if you think I’m wrong. Kind regards, Gunnar
Ann on June 25, 2016 · at 8:56 pm EST/EDT

the last sentence says it all.
ioan on June 25, 2016 · at 9:14 pm EST/EDT

Reading in my soul, I don’t think that the Ukraine and Russia will fight a religious war, a war between brothers in the name of God ? in the name of the same Orthodox religion ? If something like that will happen, presumably by people who have nothing to do with Orthodox faith from the side of Ukraine, that would be the real and quick end of the regime in Kiev. The Ukraineans will not tolerate it, that would be the biggest curse on the people, that will be the beginning of the real revolution in Ukraine and the neo-nazis (who are in fact anarchists and godless) will lost everything. they know it and therefore thy will not risk it. Only if God put them this in their mind to loose them.
vot tak on June 25, 2016 · at 9:15 pm EST/EDT

Well the zionazis like their religious war making, as long as they victimise people other than Jews. It’s certain they are a long way from being done in the Ukraine, a religious angle against the Orthodox Christians there to keep that conflict going would be a continuation of the Catholic vs Orthodox and the Muslim vs Christian conflicts the zionazis have already put a lot effort into stoking.

The current zpc/nwo method of attack consists of creating conflicts all over to essentially overwhelm their victims. Expect them to be stoking fires all over now. Both in old conflicts and in new ones. For example, they have not forgotten Iran:

The Black Hand of Art: Iranian Banksy Prowls the Streets of Tehran

http://sputniknews.com/art_living/20160625/1041959191/iran-graffiti-black-hand.html

I think that may be the opening salvo in another zionazi go at regime change in Iran.

I expect the zionazis will continue to apply heat to those places they plan to attack throughout the summer, then go all out after their american colony has their diebold selections in the fall. I have serious doubts a trump selection will make much difference in the zpc/nwo aggression.
Dioxine on June 25, 2016 · at 9:22 pm EST/EDT

“It became necessary to destroy the town to save it”
This phrase haunts my dreams, almost like the US nukes haunted my dreams when I was a kid in the 80s.
You say it in the context of Ukraine, but…
Someone said that the strongest possible alliance on Earth would be an Europe-Russia alliance.
Russia is trying to forge such an alliance, no doubt.
Back in the 2014 I started to wonder, how would the USA deny Russia if all else failed?
Then the refugees came. An example of stream warfare, if I ever saw one (a sci-fi concept: swarm the enemy with constant streams of cheap troops to drain their resources and bleed out their defences; no need for any real command structure, so your C&C, if you have any of note, can be used for other tasks, you win if your troops are cheap enough).
Are they “saving” Europe now?
Nuking Russia is unthinkable. It’s the Midnight. End of all. The US is becoming desperate, but no-one is THAT desperate.
But, and that’s the scary thought, how about nuking Germany? No-one would believe the US did it. Russia is ultimately denied. Europe is held in the fold. Just like it was planned for Viet Nam. Only the scale would be bigger. But desperate times call for desperate measures.
Anonymous on June 25, 2016 · at 9:31 pm EST/EDT

“Russia is not part to them at all, she just is a guarantor along with Germany and France.”

-Doesnt the agreement say that Russia must return control of the border with Ukraine at some point in the Minsk 2 agreement?
- Auslander on June 26, 2016 · at 2:26 am EST/EDT
  
  Please read the agreement.
  
  Russia controls the border on the Russian side of the border. DPR/LNR control the border in their territory. Who does what and where on the DPR/LNR side of the border is in virtually the last part of the agreement, after a very long list of actions Ukraine must do and after a year and a half Ukraine has done not one of her tasks.
Ralph on June 25, 2016 · at 9:34 pm EST/EDT

Saker, I think you left out some crucial facts regarding what you think may be likely happening in USUkraine (a colony of the USG, hence the ‘US’ in front of it).
You left out the catholic church, biden the catholic (and not forgetting his son, jesuit trained, consider the jesuits as the military or semi-military wing of the rcc) – when he’s not a self-confessed ‘zionist’ – a very important point, considering biden is THE (where’s the bold button? lol) most important person regarding USUkraine, for now. And, wasn’t yats a catholic? He was replaced by a jew.
Also, the Jewish influence, as some consider USUkraine as the second homeland, but then, that might not be so much ‘Jewish’ as Khazar/Ashkenazi thinking. Some have theorised that the majority of ‘Jews’ are not really Jews from a DNA point of view, although obviously there has since been interbreeding, but what I mean is genetically coming from the 12 tribes of Israel. Note zuckerberg claims a link with USUkraine. Also, the other jews, and not forgetting soros, the jew, etc, so the money angle too. (And that is without mentioning American business interests in USUkraine, which may, of course, be sacrificeable, just like the American fracking industry was sacrificed to attack Russia’s oil income).
Then, what about unemployment, and the massive increases in utility bills? With more cost increases coming. Surely that is fueling discontent? And can be capitalised on?
Now that camoron is on his way out, with biden to follow, Putin’s best bet is to continue to do what he is doing, while Russia gets stronger, the West gets weaker, and hoping that Trump gets in. Personally, I think hitlery will not be the next US Pres.
Zakharchenko is biding his time, and waiting for the neighboring oblasts to join Novrossiya.
AriusArmenian on June 25, 2016 · at 10:05 pm EST/EDT

What the CIA is doing in Ukraine is nearly exactly the long operation it ran to bring war to Vietnam as recounted by L. Fletcher Prouty in “JFK, The CIA, Vietnam And The Plot To Assassinate John F. Kennedy”.

Even before the Japanese surrendered the wars in Korea and Vietnam were planned. It took ~ten years but the CIA was able to bring chaos to Vietnam by agitprop to panic the northern Catholics to migrate to the south that were favored by the Catholic Diem. American agents whispered into his ears policies that favored the Catholics and brought the native villagers to starvation and thirst. The roving bands looking for food and water were labeled ‘Vietcong’ by the Americans and the stooge Diem regime. Johnson poured US troops into Vietnam. This operational model to bring chaos to start a bigger war and/or replace a government with American stooges is the CIA playbook, used again and again.

At the end of WW2 the US took over running the Nazi agents and their Ukrainian fascist networks in western Ukraine. Nuland was just the visible tip of the CIA networks. This is like how to US took over the British agents running their Muslim Brotherhood networks that when threatened by Nassar were moved to Saudi Arabia then later activated to create Al Qaeda in Afghanistan- since moved through Azerbaijan to Russia, Bosnia, fight against Nagorno-Karabagh, and more recently help create ISIS.

The Saker is right to be concerned that the CIA will ignite a religious war in Ukraine. Obviously the US is putting its pieces in place to take on the Russian Federation. When it is confident it is ready the next phase will begin. Always remember: the US wants chaos and war.
Ralph on June 25, 2016 · at 10:13 pm EST/EDT

Saker, this is a bit before the time I got involved in USUkraine, would you please care to comment on it? Thanks.
P.S. It was reported today, that an (failed) assassination attempt had been made on Motorola in Donetsk.
‘Things were getting rough during the summer of 2014 right up until August, when it looked like all would be lost, a funny thing happened. In the space of a few hours to no more than 3 days, Kiev lost between 15,000 to 18,000 dead. Now whether you want to attribute this to hyper accurate artillery fire by General Kononov or inbound thermobaric rounds from artillery positions deep in Russia as “Doctor” Kraber of the pro Kiev Potomac Foundation would have you believe, really does not matter. The Ukrainians were fried alive. Thousands of corpses littered the countryside, creating a health disaster.’ – https://dninews.com/article/intelligence-briefing-body-count-donbass
- Scott on June 26, 2016 · at 1:28 am EST/EDT
  
  Ralph,
  
  Every Monday for the past 2 years we get a new report of a (failed) assassination attempt had been made on Motorola in Donetsk.
  Just ignore..
  I will explain everything at some point.
  
  Please, only trust official Russian information sources like tass, izvestia, RT.com
  And trust official website of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics’ governments.
  1. http://dan-news.info/
  2. http://mgbdnr.ru/index.php
  
  No matter what these guys say about themselves, these are facts;
  http://whois.domaintools.com/dninews.com
  IP Address 5.45.79.32 – 4 other sites hosted on this server
  Hosted in London, UK
  dninews.com 2016-05-01 5.45.79.32 prodonbass.com 2016-05-01 5.45.79.32 …
  http://vk.com/sdp_en
  It looks like from March 2015, the sites with IP address IP Address 5.45.79.32 have been blocked by the Russian Federation by the decision of the court for spread for spread of anti-Russian propaganda.
  Mar 2, 2015 – Мониторинг Реестра запрещенных сайтов, информация об ip адресе 5.45.79.32.
  - Ralph on June 26, 2016 · at 11:40 am EST/EDT
    
    Erm Scott, trust rt.com (now?). Maybe before, but I now hardly visit rt.
    How can dninews be banned by Russia, when it operates out of Donetsk, i.e. with full approval of Zak?
    ‘International News Agency is located in center of Donetsk City. Main task for DONi organization is to collect and share trusted and confirmed information from Donbass region and provide publications mainly in English for foreign audience. In social media DONi is active member world wide and our network of media partners already covers in start-up process tens of western countries.
    DONi News project was launched in Donetsk officially 15.7.2015. It’s planned to work permanently and it’s privately funded non-profit-making organization.
    After starting process DONi News will publish wide arrange of media products covering civilian, military and economical information.
    
    DONi leadership:
    
    Chief Editor: Janus Putkonen’
Anonymous on June 26, 2016 · at 12:24 am EST/EDT

Well, Saker, I’ve enjoyed reading your analysis for the past couple years, but I still disagree with the idea that Russia should not militarily intervene in the Ukraine. What if Washington reignites the civil war on a much grander scale and the junta starts massacring thousands of people all over the southeast and not just in the Donbass (and the Odessa trade union building)? I would hope that Russia would come to the southeast’s aid right away, regardless of any potential ‘geopolitical consequences’.

Admission: half of my ancestors lived in what is now the southeastern Ukraine during the Russian Empire, so perhaps I’m a bit biased. But I really do not want to see some US-orchestrated genocide be carried out there.
From Aztlan... on June 26, 2016 · at 1:38 am EST/EDT

For those who do not heed advise, for those who are short of memory, for those who confuse nobility with weakness, there has always been gentle and wise admonitions,
and it´s never too late.

Alexander Blok, Да, скифы мы!/ The Scythians.

in a calm Russian Man voice,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZh0Ax-jIDo

In a passionate Russian Woman voice,

A good translation for all to ponder:

http://max.mmlc.northwestern.edu/mdenner/Demo/texts/scythians_blok.html
From Aztlan... on June 26, 2016 · at 1:41 am EST/EDT

The Passionate Russian Woman voice,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDi-qkSjMug
vot tak on June 26, 2016 · at 2:34 am EST/EDT

Ukrainian Forces Shell Lugansk People’s Republic Militia

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160626/1041962669/ukraine-lpr-shelling-veselohorivka.html

“Ukrainian security forces began shelling the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) militia located near the village of Veselohorivka in Perevalsk area on late Saturday, local media reported Sunday.

LUGANSK (Sputnik) — According to Lugansk Information Center citing a source in the self-proclaimed LPR, the shelling began at 23:15 local time [20:15 GMT].

“Artillery barrage literally rained down on our position in Veselohorivka from the Ukrainian security forces in village of Troitsky,” the source said.

The source specified that the Ukrainian army is using 120-millimeter mortars and automatic mounted grenade launchers to open fire on the LPR militia.”
Vineyard Moderator - PS on June 26, 2016 · at 3:47 am EST/EDT

To Martin of SEB.
I have received your two posts to Scott. They wont get published but I am leaving it to Scott to decide if he wishes to answer you.
You will need to wait a while. Its night time and he wont be around for a day or so I suspect.
mod on duty.
Robert M. Peters on June 26, 2016 · at 4:26 am EST/EDT

I became aware of the Saker’s website at our just after the Maidan in 2014. I have followed it as well as the links which the site provides almost daily. I post little because it is not prudent for the ignorant to say or write much; however, I have learned much from the Saker, from his contributors, from the sites which he links and from those of you who post on these fora. I attempt to pass on the knowledge and understanding which I glean from these fora to those who might read or listen. Thanks to the Saker and to all of you who make this an interesting site to visit.
Abraham on June 26, 2016 · at 8:20 am EST/EDT

“That which cannot be held, and will be taken by the enemy, must be damaged as much as possible so that the enemy’s victory is more costly than defeat”

This is what Ishchenko in his analyisis predicted almost a year ago, about the Empire strategy in Ukraine. Then he keeps writing:

“If the Ukraine catches fire, it will burn quickly, and if the EU has become an unreliable partner… Washington, faithful to its strategy, would be obliged to set fire to Europe”

And finally: “One can only guess who will be more effective – the Americans with their gas can or the Russians with their fire extinguisher?”

I really want to know what kind of “extinguisher” will Putin use to turn off the fire in Ukraine. This is gonna be very, very interesting.
Alex on June 26, 2016 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT

I have an ignorant question. It’s ignorance seeking enlightenment. Is religion sufficiently important to sufficiently many Ukrainians for serious civil strife to arise over which of various claimants is the true Orthodox Church? In Britain, there has been a clear trend over the last five centuries: religion and politics were inextricably tied one to the other at the Reformation; after the Republic, Catholics and Dissenters were barred from politics and some restriction persisted into the nineteenth century; and now, apart from some relics (the Anglican Church is the established church and a Catholic can’t be monarch), religion plays little part in politics at all. Where on a comparable spectrum is Ukraine today?
- WizOz on June 26, 2016 · at 11:17 pm EST/EDT
  
  In England the religious war started by Reformation led to the death of religion. The Catholic Church was killed (in the most physical sense) and the hypocrite pseudo-Christian Anglican parasynagogue is not a relic, but a corpse which decomposed into the myriad of Protestant, neo-Protestant sects.
  - Alex on June 27, 2016 · at 8:48 am EST/EDT
    
    …er… “interesting” and ecumenical account of Christianity in Britain. And Ukraine?
    - WizOz on June 27, 2016 · at 11:58 pm EST/EDT
      
      In Ukraine the religious war started with the imposition of Papocracy through the deceptive means of Unia, upon the Orthodox population.
      - Alex on June 28, 2016 · at 8:19 am EST/EDT
        
        … which still doesn’t answer my question.
        
        Uncle Bob 1 on June 28, 2016 · at 8:27 am EST/EDT
        
        Its used as a form of “them and us”. Its not really important in a “religious” sense. Its used the same way Protestantism and Catholicism is used in Northern Ireland to divide people. And to tell you which “tribe” you belong to.Its used for nationalist purposes.
        
        Alex on June 28, 2016 · at 12:44 pm EST/EDT
        
        Uncle Bob 1
        I’m really not sure that there’s an analogy. Think of the long centuries of Catholic, Anglican and Calvinist communities in Ireland, the English conquerors and English and Scottish settlers. Think of the botch Britain made of the Irish question in the 19th and 20th centuries. Think of Carson et al. (including Churchill) and the British military conspiring to establish Northern Ireland with its in-built Protestant and Unionist majority, which proceeded to discriminate against the Catholic community… In Ireland religion and imperial power were inextricably bound up. Very much not just a label for tribes.
        
        So I still don’t have a clue how things stand in Ukraine. I was last there in Soviet times (!). The younger generation among those I met did include some who observed some of the rituals and customs of Orthodoxy (I don’t know whose Church they frequented, though they did take me to visit the Pechersk Lavra). And an English friend worked for a multinational in the 1990s but only came across Ukrainian “business” folk (scared the bejeesus out of her).
        
        So, is the Ukrainian Orthodox population sufficient in size and sufficiently zealous for an internal power struggle among various claimants to “true” Orthodoxy to ignite civil strife? Or would it just be a sideshow useful for propaganda? After all, this is not even between Roman Catholics and Orthodox…
        
        As I say, my question reflects my total ignorance and wish for information.
Rootman on June 26, 2016 · at 3:38 pm EST/EDT

All the best energy, inspiration and stamina for your thesis! After you hand it in, I would love to read it, most probably with a volume of explanation in order to understand.

But a religious war?

You have pointed to some interesting truths in former articles, but in Europe, a religious war will just not fly!

If you could make at least some folks pause, and reconsider some thoughts and concepts, you could already call yourself a winner! No guarantee about me, but I´ll keep reading!

Of course I´ll look forward to your analyses about Brexit and other developments!
- Anonymous on June 30, 2016 · at 7:55 am EST/EDT
  
  “But a religious war?
  
  You have pointed to some interesting truths in former articles, but in Europe, a religious war will just not fly!”
  
  I would very vehemently disagree with your comment!
  
  What occurred i Yugoslavia in the nineties was just that, insigated, coordinated and controlled by the AZ empire.
  
  Of the 24 or so million Yugoslavs (or if you prefer south slavs) 20-22 million speak the same language. The difference between the so-called Bosniacs, Croats, Serbs… is the religion (theirs or of their forefathers – many of them being not too religious). This being the unfortunate result of living in an area where empires met and fought. Thus, the Schism between the East and West Christian empires occurred there, the border between the Holy Roman Empire and the Ottoman empire passed and swayed there (+/- a couple of hundred kilometers). And each empire brought with it its own version of a religion (as a set of moral rules), its acceptance bringing some small or big benefits to the converts, and rejection sometimes resulting in being hung, quartered or stuck on a pole. There are numerous examples of families in the Dinaric region of the Balkans in the 16-19th century (where these empires met and fought) deciding that one son accepts eg Islam, another the Uniate conversion and the third remains Ortodox, so that they could survive and protect each other. And now their descedents are supposed to be “different nations” and fight each other to the benefit of the AZ.
  
  Common language is one of the most important preconditions for a nation. The south slavs were (are) not allowed to form a nation, and the controlled religious war that occurre(s)d in the Balkans only in the last 25 years resulted in 7-8 small feudal states (with a distinct possibility of further fragmentation), approx. 200,000 dead, 2-3 million displaced and at least a half of the Yugoslavs made extremelly unhappy, the great majority being impoverished.
  
  The south slav region has been since the II WW an experimental ground for political projections in the east. The majority of the political and religious experiments “applied” to the south slav populace is being now extended (or tried to) to the eastern slav (malorussian, belorussian and russian) populace, largelly utilizing the “religous” card.
  
  The south slavs had to destroy the Ottoman and Austrio-Hungarian empires in order to unite. It seems that the slavs will have to destroy the AZ empire in oder to be left alone.
  
  Жељко из Крајине
JJ on June 26, 2016 · at 5:36 pm EST/EDT

Yarosh today is saying ukr must or will intensify their avtions by involving much more the “islamic factorr” in russia and the resistance factor in north caucusus and c hinese who want siberia to come together and retake Donbas in some king of equivalent to operation storm that took place in croatia…..would he be saying this if he had not “tacit”support from usa one wonders…….?
Anonymous on June 26, 2016 · at 6:35 pm EST/EDT

Would the Americans try to incite religious war to set Ukraine aflame right on Russia’s doorstep?

Of course they would.

This is what the United States has been doing against Iraq for years by inciting sectarian religious conflict between the Sunni and Shia order to subjugate the Iraqi people. And this is only one example of America’s instinctive “divide and conquer” mentality. There are many more.

Behind all their national lies about “defending freedom and democracy,” the Americans will resort to any tactic, any deception, any behavior–no matter how depraved or sick–in order to defend their holiest of holies: maintaing and expanding America’s global dominance.
hrc on June 26, 2016 · at 9:16 pm EST/EDT

Sorry Saker,,,
But You cannot trigger a religious war between Christian sects. is not going to happen ,it never happened. Christianity is not Islam. They could bribe priest to be corrupt but people ,devotee christians will not follow . Simply because contrary to Islam , Christianity do have an example of
a leader of peace. So not going to happen. What could really happen however is Ukraine can be destroyed beyond repair and provoke major civil wars to start ethnic cleansing of Russians ,to force
RUssia invade. Naturally Russia will not do it alone ,and will ask United Nations help to get Europe help. the big danger will be Ukraine nuclear reactors , Americans can get a plan to blow them up , the ones closer to Crimea ,just to create a major environmental problem. In Crimea ,but this also could affect Europe too.
- The Saker on June 27, 2016 · at 3:52 am EST/EDT
  
  You cannot trigger a religious war between Christian sects. is not going to happen ,it never happened.
  
  You can’t possibly be serious?!?!?!?!?!??!
  - Erast Fandorin on June 28, 2016 · at 1:27 pm EST/EDT
    
    Ireland? Thirty Years’ War? French Wars of Religion? Schmalkaldic War?
мудријаш on June 27, 2016 · at 1:46 pm EST/EDT

this situation in Ukraine, regarding religious split, is nothing new to those who had experience of being Orthodox Christian living close to Roman Catholic countries. Serbs have suffered for centuries from Roman Catholics, either by persecution, murder, expulsion or (!) forced change of religion to Roman Catholicism. One of the tactics used by Roman Catholics was to find allies in Orthodox Christians who were willing to under disguise of promoting Unification of two christian churches actually convert Orthodox to Papal universal authority. Now-days, it can be seen in Montenegro, where newly founded “Montenegrin” nation was created, out of Serbs (Montenegro was a Serb Kingdom, one of two in Balkans, with Serb majority population), and first action was to create Montenegrin Orthodox Church, which is not recognized, with an idea to take over faithful people of Serb Orhodox Church, and in second phase, to forge an Union with Roman Catholics and recognize Pope as supreme leader. Do not be fooled, Roman Catholic conquest of Eastern Europe is not finished, it is alive and kicking, even more today (20th and 21st century) than in previous centuries, it is just that no analysis or any other info about it is very hard to find…Media darkness…Of course, needless to say, catholic priest were the ones who called Croats to murder Serbs, they actually took an active role in murdering of hundreds of thousands of Serbs, managed Concentration Death Camps, etc. These days we can hear about catholic priest call for murder of russians in Roman Catholic Churches across Western Ukraine….Same ol’, same ol’…
- Anonymous on June 28, 2016 · at 2:10 am EST/EDT
  
  The US state dept accuses Russia of harassing its diplomats in their travels in Moscow
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vhh8gtVZG4
Robert Bruce on June 28, 2016 · at 2:26 am EST/EDT

I would think that maybe they will just leave
Ukraine go til
Hillary takes over. Isis is hot on
America’s mind now in lieu of the
Orlando incident. That is the theatre of operations that is deemed legit by the
American populace.
Ukraine has fallen off the radar!!
- Anonymous on June 28, 2016 · at 2:43 am EST/EDT
  
  I say that also, because the entire fiasco has blown up in their face. The government they installed is horrible to say the least and the last thing they want is to give it anymore coverage til after the election. Anything negative about
  Ukraine helps
  Trump is my point.
david on June 28, 2016 · at 9:40 am EST/EDT

The last few years I have enjoyed alternative news web sites.
I have never seen anyone banned for insulting a religion. I guess I should not be surprised though. The American Christians are the only ones that cannot bring themselves to believe that George Bush and Cheney lied to them. They cannot accept they can be manipulated by really smart people. Instead of accepting that they were lied to and were fooled, they have convinced themselves that there were Weapons of Mass Destruction, but they were all hidden. All religious people have given up reality and condemned themselves to only seeing the world through a narrow and hypocritical perspective. I personally believe that most if not all the worlds problems today are caused by religion of all types. And I certainly want no part of a web site that cannot handle criticism. Your not any better than Erdogan locking up cartoonists and journalists for mocking him. Or the Muslims that kill people for mocking their god.
Ban me, I won’t be back anyway.
sinbad on July 01, 2016 · at 3:02 am EST/EDT

I can’t really see a religious war working in Ukraine.
The religion is more about their historical culture than submission to a God or prophet.
Most older Ukrainians are educated communists, they don’t really believe in God, but it’s a comfort when your reaching the end of the road.

The US would have a better chance of getting a communist v fascist war going.
If you look at the historical voting patterns in Ukraine, it’s obvious that the east and west are very different.

If Ukraine was divided, by the vote, and not the gun, it would be a fantastic economic boost to Europe. Ukraine could be the project that stimulates the global economy, if only the USA would get out of the way.
A.T. on July 02, 2016 · at 10:43 am EST/EDT

Insightful analysis; the religious element always tends to be underweighted in secular news reporting (unless its Arab extremism).

Still, its not clear that the Ukrainians have the energy to fight. The smart, motivated people have left. The chickenhawks and petty warlords that remain seem more interested in conserving their dwindling power, not expanding.

The Ukraine might balkanize further along religiously-defined territories, characterized by low-intensity conflict similar to the harassment of the Donbass, but the Ukraine seems done and incapable of total war.

All the blood and treasure would have to come from outside Ukraine. If NATO doesn’t invade to end the ‘rebellion’, the way Russia stepped in to rescue Syria, then more war doesn’t seem likely.
Rymlianin on July 08, 2016 · at 1:53 am EST/EDT

The historical development of Orthodoxy in Ukraine is the subject of a great number of scholarly texts. What should be focused on is the current problems. Constantinople is a church in need of a reason to exist.It’s interference in Russian Church matters is a long historical story just in the 20th Century.Its meddling in Finland, Poland, Ukraine and Czechoslovakia are notorious. Its desire to promote itself as some type of Eastern Papacy is well known through its misuse of Canon 28, which it injudiciously uses to establish itself as some type of super-church . Added to this are the troubles caused by the so called “Greek Catholics” who would be more than happy to fish in troubled waters. To top it all off, the US State Department has attempted , through its surrogates, to effect the outcome of the recently held “Pan-Orthodox Council .”