There are no official results from the meeting in Geneva yet. The US has promised to give the Russians an official answer in writing within a week. The Russians have declared that they have explained the Russian position to their US counterparts in minute details leaving no ambiguity. According to Russian sources, the US position was a “diehard/stubborn” one.
Clearly, the War Party in the USA is, at least so far, prevailing. When I listen to the delusional statements of the likes of Blinken, Psaki, Kirby & Co I get the strong feeling that for these people everything is a zero-sum game and that to them an agreement with Russia, any agreement, is simply unthinkable.
If so, then this is all good news. Frankly, it is pretty clear that the War Party has won the day, at least so far, which leaves Russia no other option that to take further unilateral actions which is, I believe, the only way left for Russia to bring the leaders of the West back into the real world.
There are still further talks planned, with the Russia-NATO council and the OSCE. Never say never and maybe a last minute breakthrough is possible, but I personally don’t see how that could happen, not when one of the two parties is absolutely, maniacally, determined to treat the other as some kind of semi-savage inferior race with whom no civilized western leaders will ever negotiate. The western diplomatic toolkit has shrunk to basically the following:
- Exceptionalism, messianism, racism and self-worship.
- Threats and imposition of sanctions for “bad behavior” like a teacher would punish a grade-school kid for being rowdy and not listening to the teacher.
- A total belief in both the West invincibility and invulnerability no matter what the “real reality” actually is.
- A total categorical refusal to admit, even by implication, that the world has profoundly changed and that the Anglosphere does not “rule the waves” anymore.
There is only one thing Russia can do to bring the leaders of the West back to reality: to turn up what I call the “pain dial”.
Russian peacekeeper in Kazakhstan
In the meantime, the Russian military has declared that it hopes to leave Kazakhstan within a week, but only if/when the situation in this country is fully stabilized.
President Tokaev has said that the CSTO forces withdrawal will being in 48 hours and will last no more than 10 days. I hope that he is right.
However, it will take months for Kazakhstan and Russia to deal with the insurgents, especially in the West and South of Kazakhstan. But that would already be a mopping-up operation which Russia and Kazakhstan can coordinate on a bilateral basis without any need to involve the CSTO.
For the time being, we have to wait and see what actually happens in the next few days, things should become much clearer.
Andrei
Just posted an article in the Ryabkov brief media page, a report from RI Novosti where the NYT declared it was “a kind of victory for the Kremlin, as the issue of expansion comes to the fore, which has long irritated Putin.”
https://ria.ru/20220111/peregovory-1767370089.html
So, “allowing” Russia to vent Putin’s frustrations with NATO’s expansion was “a kind of victory,” for the Kremlin, according to the NYT.
The “rowdy, grade-school kid” was allowed to speak.
The arrogance.
Lone Wolf
you misunderstand the ambiguous NYT article. I believe that the media have been given the order to slowly change course.
Hello Thomas,
I agree with you. I searched the Washington Post, Bloomberg and Reuters earlier this morning and there was not one peep about yesterday´s meeting. Something happened.
Regards,
John
the same deadly silence in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Ztg. on 01/11/22
Hello bystander,
I checked again this morning and still not a word from those guys. If that doesn´t show some sort of collusion, then I don´t know what does. Maybe, they did get the message loud and clear.
regards,
John
Arrogance indeed. Putin is worth all of them put together. Were he running this country we would not be in the mess we are in.
I for one fully expect that the talks will achieve nothing useful whatever in resolving Russia’s concerns.
Saker writes:
“When I listen to the delusional statements of the likes of Blinken, Psaki, Kirby & Co I get the strong feeling that for these people everything is a zero-sum game and that to them an agreement with Russia, any agreement, is simply unthinkable.”
Agree completely.
When Ryabkov told the press conference that he had patiently explained to the US team that “Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine” my immediate reaction was ‘Oh no, why is Russia on the back foot, having to defend its position from criticism again?’
But then I realised, he must have been totally exasperated, he was talking to brainwashed muppets, utterly filled with hubris and Hollywood’s propaganda. At that moment I knew the talks were simply for Russia a “going through the motions” exercise.
Putin and his Kremlin know that they must force the hand of the deep state and its oligarchs who control the western powers that it does not pay to ignore Russia’s proposals/demands.
I do not expect a short military war, rather a lengthy economic war of attrition, with Russia and China applying an ever tighter squeeze.
Europe will freeze this winter, and next. Russian airspace will become either more expensive, or closed to western airlines altogether. The digital yuan will become more ubiquitous, the BRI will continue to grow apace, etc.
We are seeing the final fruits of decades of deterioration in western education and focus. It’s going to be a very bumpy ride.
WT
That sort of long, drawn-out process seems extremely unlikely to me. Why wouldn’t Russia use the overwhelming military advantage it enjoys at the moment to force the US to give up any pretenses of being a military superpower? How many US aircraft carriers does Russia have to sink in order to get the US to sign whatever security agreement Russia puts in front of it?
Agree,
As detailed by Larchmonter445 in a previous blog comment, Russia could annihilate whatever military targets it chooses in Ukraine including NATO advisors on the ground – all without sending Russian troops into Ukraine. In comments below, Larchmonter445 writes that, “Russia has to break NATO, that’s the showdown.” Such an overwhelming Russian strike would shock NATO/US deep state leaders back to reality and take Ukraine off the table. Next step – Now are you ready to sign an agreement?
My concern is that the US may be looking for another “Pearl Harbor” attack to rally the country, and there could be a major conflict that starts in Ukraine and eventually also involve the Chinese. Seems Russia is being drawn in like the Japanese were in WW2, but this one will be much more difficult for the USA. Back then the USSR did the heavy lifting against Germany, and US citizenship was offered to natives in Asia to get them to fight with the US military against Japan. This time, the US will be pretty much alone.
But the mentality in the US is that it was the main force for victory in WW2, and I think they genuinely falsely believe that a hot WW3 would turn out the “same”.
The swampies in Washington may well be looking for another Pearl Harbor, at which point Biden will order that all the Detroit assembly lines be immediately converted to tank-making and airplane construction.
At which point the Oligarchy that really rules the USA will loudly gulp and say “Err, what assembly lines would those be?”
Biden will be momentarily confused – no real difficulty there – and then thunder that he wants all of the USA’s industrial might focused on Victory! Victory! Victory!
And those same Oligarchs will clear their throat and say “Err, what industrial might are you talking about?”
Biden’s head will be reeling in confusion and he’d stammer out a demand: the USA is a $22Tillion economy, so where does all those trillions of dollars come from?
And the Oligarch’s will break it down for him:
F is for Finance
I is for Insurance
R is for Real (as in Real Estate)
E is for Estate (as in Real Estate)
When the Washington swamp-dwellers stand around drinking their Kool Aid and talking about the coming “Pearl Harbor” moment not one of them will understand a fundamental reality: in this re-run they will be playing the role of the Empire of Japan.
US do have physical production, it is in the range of Germany $6 trillion, and shrinking. No-one in the right mind invest in risky production when F.I.R.E yields order of magnitude bigger profit with, litteraly zero risk for big players.
Nothing gets done or built until someone first picks up a hammer……
And drives the first nail….
Hollywood might refer to the USA as the world’s greatest superpower, but as most of us here in the Vineyard know, that ship sailed a long time ago.
The problem for Putin is not how to win militarily, (they could turn the US continent to glass if it comes to that) — it is what comes next. Naturally Putin is not wishing that. In other words I am sure he and his generals are also very much concerned with winning the peace. It is a balancing act, a dangerous one. He has to provide just enough military force to block any serious aggression, which he is clearly doing.
The US MIC for their part loves threats, they shamelessly amp these in the captured media to hysteria levels – all to keep that trillion dollar budget flowing. They would love Russia to sink a carrier or two in order to scream blue murder. But there are limits, and so they have used incremental pokes at the bear, thinking that the Russians won’t escalate beyond a certain level. And they have shamelessly milked their NATO vassals, using the ‘Russia threat’ as the excuse. It has worked, up to now.
But NATO members are already struggling with declining economies and massive social unrest. I am sure Putin knows that by demonstrating the iron fist in a velvet glove, as he has been, it is only a matter of time when NATO simply implodes, brought about by spiraling costs, lack of commitment by the citizens, and disillusionment with Uncle Schmuel’s greedy hunger without end.
The Russia-China dynamic will prevail, providing the crazies in DC or Kiev are kept in check.
If not, all bets are off.
WT
It’s difficult being a sane adult who has to deal with an insane child.
Worse when the insane child has thermonuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, and is quite keen to try them out.
How long IS the Atlantic coast of Ukraine, anyway? Maybe Japan and Korea could join?
I agree. It’s time for a ‘rub your face in it’ response. Like you do with a bad kitten.
One should never do that to a kitten. A dog maybe, but not a kitten. Horrible thought.
Also, cats are more intelligent than ANZ by several orders of magnitude…
Arguably better armed, too.
Mutts don’t deserve it either. Man’s best friend. Now neocons on the other hand…
That is extremely dangerous thinking. How many aircraft carriers to sink? One, and then the world dies.
I am a veteran of the empire’s 1st foreign adventure, Operation Desert Storm. I’ve watched our shenanigans ever since. One absolutely indisputable fact of the US military and US civilians view of the military: they positively cannot STAND casualties. The sinking of a carrier would cause more losses than the entire 20 year “war” in Afghanistan did. More than died in the Normandy landings. The public would not allow peace after such a heinous act as sinking an invincible aircraft carrier!
I live in Florida. People around here wanted to “nuke” Iran for having the audacity to launch missiles at our Iraqi base. They also saw no problem in the murder of the Solimani “terrorist.” The loss of a carrier would elicit a nuclear reply, I am certain.
Mr Orlov has written an essay where he shows how targeting your infrastructure could cripple your war machine without inflicting many casualties.
Can you give the article title, please.
It’s paywalled.
I agree. People who advocate a unilateral Russian attack on US military assets – especially major ones – are idiots. They forget that the US has any number of missile submarines which can – despite the S-500 and S-550 – devastate Russia in either a first or second strike. The Russia air defenses are formidable, but there is no such thing as “total coverage” of or “sealing” a country the size of Russia or even its major cities.
Russia’s previous ABM systems cover Moscow, whereas the US systems cover its missile launch sites. But all that means is that the US has undoubtedly targeted so many missiles on Moscow that at least a couple will get through no matter how many S-500 and S-550 surround it.
Putin is not an idiot. He’s not going to attack significant US military assets short of a declaration of war by the US. He won’t even attack locations in NATO short of a declaration of war by NATO. There are a lot of other things he can do is re-establish MAD with regard to the US and NATO – and he’s doing them. That’s all he has to – re-establish MAD to insure that neither the US or NATO will dare to attack or even threaten Russia.
The question is – how is he going to push NATO back to its starting line without doing something that really threatens/harms NATO? MAD exists at the moment but that’s far from what Russia is asking for. He can either scare NATO to the point that NATO realises that the game is over or concede a strategic defeat and see Russia gradually dismembered.
Thank you
How is Putin going to push NATO back to its starting line?
The obvious answer is to confront Washington with the same danger, and then offer to trade it one-for-one.
So, Tu-160 bombers in Cuba. Khinzal-armed Mig-31 fighters in Venezuela. Weapons that can decapitate Washington, and based in the USA’s back yard.
The Americans will have a fit. Go completely ape-shit. And then the Russians will say “oh, those? Sure, we’ll remove ours if you remove yours”.
Because without that card then Washington will simply play hard-ball, because, well, why wouldn’t they?
Think back to the Cuba Missile Crisis in 1962: the Americans had *already* based their nukes in Turkey, and were completely and utterly headless of any complaints from the USSR regarding those deployments.
Then, suddenly, holy crap, nukes in Cuba? Unacceptable! Utterly unacceptable!
Khrushchev: Oh, those? OK, we’ll remove ours if you remove yours.
Kennedy: Grrrrrrrrrrr OK.
Unfortunately the American leadership has gone so childish it will think Putin “does not have it” to use those nuclear missiles, and will challenge him!
The issue is how to make the deluded leadership and its clueless citizens aware that their time is up, without a nuclear war. And I dont think there is any easy solution. Attack on military targets might actually bring Americans to war. May be a crippling electronic warfare that forces everything to come to a standstill cannot be hidden away from the clueless citizens.
Precisely Richard. I don’t get this idea that one side can turn the other ‘to glass’ and walk away scot free. People who say this are not thinking. It’s not just death from the explosions and nuclear fire. Its the aftermath; Nuclear winter, resulting from the earth’s atmosphere being soaked in fallout gases and ash. No sunlight gets through. How long for? 20 years? 40 years? No country anywhere on the earth is spared. The ecosystem dies. Plant life dies and there is no fresh food. How long can any survivors last on canned food? Thats not considering acute radiation sickness of the land, seas and most all mammal life on earth. It’s been modeled thoroughly, and I’m guessing the resulting earthquakes and Tsunamis would wreak havoc on the surface of the world. Yes, Russia may have to use limited and very focused strikes to prove their seriousness – who can blame the Russians for this – but please let’s not talk of nukes.
Putin will take out the command and control center in Colorado and somewhere else he already told the Americans what parts he’s going to hit. 3 locations.
“People who advocate a unilateral Russian attack on US military assets – especially major ones – are idiots. They forget that the US has any number of missile submarines…”
It does not work that way. Using nuclear missiles from submarines would immediately trigger full nuclear exchange resulting in end of the world. As certain US high official fumingly said : “Unfortunately, we can not kill sons of the bitches, without committing suicide.”
Using nuclear weapons as answer on conventional strike is big NoNo.
Russia invested too much of prestige in current “negotiations” to back off. I doubt barracks in Ramstein will be cluster bombed, but Aegis ashore in Romania, nuclear armed bombers near border, and missile batteries in Poland are fair targets, among others. If not dismantled after certain deadline. Also it is possible to give last minute warning to the personel near targets, so casualties can be minimal if not zero. Been done before.
Anything is possible after that. Nuclear war or lasting peace. Lets say 50:50.
But if NATO warmongers are not brought to the senses, war is inevitable. As soon as they finish building up forces , they will attack. Without pre-negotiations.
Irony is that those who advocate restraint, walks the path that leads to 100% certain war, and those who prefer aggresive aproach give peace a chance
The loss of a carrier would elicit a nuclear reply, I am certain.
It absolutely would not. The American public may be politically uneducated but they do know the outcome of a nuclear war with Russia. Even the most uninformed of them say things such as, “Russia is a gas station with nukes.” So they know it will be ugly for America. The thing about entitlement is that it demands respect it does not deserve. Entitlement will make demands until it meets a pushback it recognizes as detrimental to its existence. At that point it will start becoming rational since there is very little that brings clarity to a coddled, entitled people like the possibility of annihilation. At that point the divisions in America will become apparent. The Reps will blame the Dems for such a situation and vice versa. Regardless both parties will recognize the need to negotiate with Russia whilst blaming each other. It will not go nuclear.
“The American public may be politically uneducated but they do know the outcome of a nuclear war with Russia. Even the most uninformed of them say things such as, “Russia is a gas station with nukes.” So they know it will be ugly for America.”
…and there you’re precisely wrong. Part of the political miseducation of Americans is the belief that Russian nukes are rusty old Soviet scrap that the USA could destroy in a first strike, and that such a first strike can be executed without negative consequences (either militarily or environmentally) to the USA.
The days when Americans feared destruction in a nuclear war are long gone — I’d place the date sometime around 1991.
Our only hope is that there are still a few Americans inside the Beltway with influence and a modicum of intelligence and sanity. But I’ve long since decided that hope is for chumps. (Certainly Obama taught us that much!)
I believe that the sinking of one of America’s invincible aircraft carriers will wake Americans up to the fact that Russia’s weapons are not that rusty and ineffective after all. If the mighty aircraft carrier is taken down what else may the Russians take down.
I think you comment on RT under the same name. I posted there as well under USBS. Because of the continuous harassment by the RT moderators I decided to delete my Disqus account. I have noticed that less and less pro Russia people post there.
To sink an american carrier unprovoked would be idiotic, the US already believes it can win in a first strike scenario and would not hesitate to go nuclear. The cubans never attacked any Americans, but the AZ was prepared to go nuclear over just the placement of nukes on cuban soil that could reach the US. The empire has become far, far more intolerant, entitled and belligerent since then.
The best way for the RF to respond would be to do what the US itself does. Supply allies and AZ enemies like iran, yemen, hizbollah, venuzuala, cuba etc its a long list, with an array of weaponry that threatens the US, and other weapons that would make any AZ attack on them to costly to contemplate. This would have to be carefully thought out and implemented . Its the only way to neuter the empire short of a hot war.
I read the answer today in zerohedge.
Capital police hunting for lone wolves etc in the ranks. Police officers who are not empire/nuke war etc loyal. The biggest fear today in America is, Americas itself.
That fear was exposed today. This is a Saker educational “moment”, or should that read…. momentous?
I think the brutal interment of the Jan6 citizens without charge has up set a lot of uniform people.
I truly believe the vast majority of US uniformed police and mil are normal people.
Like PhD cosmologists if you don’t pretend to believe comets are a pile of lose rubble and a dirty snowball you ain’t got a job anywhere.
There are more guns in America than citizens and more ammo than Fed bucks.
I would not be so sure about a strong US response, why? Because Russia compared to other countries is capable to inflict great damage to the Us as well. I remember this one: Americans are not afraid of war but are afraid if dying. Russians are afraid of war but not afraid of dying.
I concur. That would go nuclear.
Fear not CWK.
God will sent a comet, (they are electrically charged, huge rocks.) 5 miles up the positive and negative charged comet explodes. Every igadget and nuke cuts out/burns out….and Amish to the Empire, the EMP as landed.
…… “I could be right, I could be wrong but it could be the “Big Bear,” people are looking for.”
There are 2 time factors in play. Re economy, time sides with RCI, every day the Anglozionist empire gets nearer to ponzi implosion. Militarily, I have no doubt that AS SOON AS the anglozionists have hypersonic weapons, they will attack.
Russia needs to force the Anglozionist empire back before it acquires hypersonic weapons. Perhaps the route is to expel the AZ from the Middle East. This would involve strengthening Iran’s defensive capabilities, strengthening Yemens defensive capabilities against air attack so AZ adventurers face a price, speeding up Syrian defensive reconstruction. All with greater Chinese assistance. Increasing the pace of these moves will provide a reality check.
Finally there will need to be a military demonstration of capability, and this will need to be in Ukraine where the red line is being crossed. Perhaps the next well publicised Ukronazi aggression will need to be dealt with? Finally, Russia will need to address the playground bully tactics of threatening immense consequences ‘if you dare to hurt us back’, ie ‘NATO lives are lost’ , or ‘US lives are lost’. The Afghans and Iranians have shown this to be the BS bluster that all bullies use.
They need not sink any aircraft carrier, the only think they have to do is land 85th and 106th in Sofia and Varna-Chaika base on Black see and this is where the story ends for NATO. It is NATO achille and the check mate for Russia. Ukraine is misdirection for Ashkenazim that control State Department like, Blinken and Wendy Sherman. .
Do you know Yakov Kedmi?
I listen occasionally to what he has to say to his russophone audience in Russia and Israel. Regarding the stance of Bulgaria as a NATO member (I do not know to what authority he was referring) he said interesting things in his yesterday’s interview by Vladimir Solovyov. It would appear there are active lines of communication, to not say coordination, between Bulgaria and Russia.
To my knowledge there are in Bulgaria four joint BG-US military bases and probably (I’m not sure about that) a NATO command centre in Sofia.
Dmitry Orlov, they only have to sink one US aircraft carrier.
Shares in MIC companies will sink like a stone.
And take the whole stock market with it.
Who will buy or fund 3rd rate weapon systems?
The AngloZionists will not yield. Russia has not revealed what it’s response to NATO encroachment will be, but Putin would not level an ultimatum without a planned comprehensive plan of action that will impose costs on NATO countries, Putin does not bluff. I can imagine things like nuclear missiles in Syria, with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and in Iran. Improved qualitative and quantitative nuclear response time against Western Europe, the North American mainland, Baltics, and perhaps all NATO participants, declaring NATO a hostile threat. The West would have to contend with nuclear war going from what they think is a winnable first strike scenario to MAD on a hair trigger. The AngloZionists will sanction Russia on the SWIFT payment system which the world now knows they have weaponized. I would bet Russia and China have discussed this and ways to leverage that against them by accelerating dollar destruction as a reserve currency. There would also be stepped up proxy military engagements, particularly in the middle east, with Iran spearheading them and immediate responses to color revolution attacks like what just happened in Kazakhstan. As for strategic assassinations that could go tit for tat too, not only the Mossad/CIA can play that game. Whatever Putin does will not be evident all at once, he plays the long and comprehensive game, the consequences will emerge over time and by degrees. It is clear that Russia and China are now on the offensive. Israel sits smack dab in the middle of the Afro-Eurasian “world island” and no doubt the Zionists believe it is their God given right to own and rule the world from this spot. They are very much salient amonst the decision makers Putin has alluded to, and I don’t see the Zionist ambitions coming to fruition.
Agree on economic measures. At the sam etime, given that:
– Empire’s military forces have alredy reached Russian door step,
– The only language Empire seems to understands nowdays is brutal force and
– Likely-to-be-true Kremlin’s assessment that Russia has never been so much ahead of Empire in overall conventional military power as it is today
I believe some military measures will be taken as well. Short-term measures and long-term measures. Limited in scope/time. For example:
– Destroy NATO installations in Ukraine, maybe also in Poland/Romania or even in space. In an spectacular manner, everyne to see, but ideally with zero human casualties. The goal would be to prevent immediate threat of future hypersonic missile infrastructure and to force European countries start worring about their own security.
– Deploy strategical bombarders and missiles in US softbelly. Even maybe deploy terrifing underwater nucler drone(s) off US shore.
Makes any sense?
(Sorry for my poor English)
Yes, makes sense – crystal clear.
Don’t worry, your English is up to snuff.
Any ending is better than a mending.
Better an end with horror than a horror without end.
GOLD STANDARD.
Game over and peace cometh.
No invasions of anything or anywhere required.
The planet earth needs to vote #1 for the GOLD party and boring sanity shall return.
No more cheese burgers.
The buns are 80% trans fat, salt and sugar. 10% flour and water.
The patty will soon be made of insects from domestic and numerous commercial locations.
Let’s go Brandon.
Then its last chance for America with, “Let’s go Muz camel nose.” Just for laughs.
Russia’s response will be military-technical, asymmetrical, effective and unexpected. The Western side will pray Russia to return to the negotiating table. If there will be a Western side at all. This is a game where Russia has all the cards.
Why not economic? That is much less risky and could be very effective.
Fossil fuel exports to the EU, slowly turned off for example. As a side note: I don’t know if many people realize that Russia is building a huge 4 reactor nuclear plant in Turkey. I don’t know why they don’t tell the Turks to stop irritating them, or the construction is going to stop. I suppose they expect Erdogan to be gone eventually. Europe’s politicians could be affected almost immediately if the gas stops flowing. What would the they do? Launch a war of conquest against Russia to get the gas turned back on? Ridiculous.
“Fossil Fuel Exports” This is not a political lever that I believe Russia is willing to use. Even during the cold war, gas bought was gas delivered. Gazprom has never defaulted on a single contract for delivery, and I think this is an important point. Titanium.. perhaps. Palladium, sure. But I would believe it is in Russia’s best interest to keep a sterling record on energy unless in the utmost need.
The Soviet Union was respected during the Cold War. That has not been the case after 1990 until perhaps very recently.
As far as asymmetrical responses, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something along the lines of incessant pressure to the America occupiers at Al Tanf, or perhaps seeing the Americans getting the boot from their Eastern Syria oil theft region.
The Iraqis have been stepping up their game of late with increasing attacks on US barracks and convoys and I don’t doubt this has the blessing of the Kremlin.
Responses like the above may go a long way to educating Uncle Sam about the folly of his position.
They agreed that nuclear war is a loser.
They also agreed that they need to talk about nuclear weapons.
They have a tacit understanding that if Russia disarms Ukraine, the US will punish them with sanctions.
There is also another unspoken understanding that Ukraine exists solely as a potential threat for NATO to use at its pleasure with or without Ukraine being part of NATO.
Notice Georgia is never spoken about. Georgia is off the table, because the US can’t use it like it uses Ukraine.
As for NATO taking its missiles and B-61 nuclear bombs and going back to 1997 lines, that is a natural fallback line that will be in effect as soon as missiles fly.
What we have is a classic Western showdown, High Noon, OK Corral, Tombstone.
We just don’t know which is the white hat and which is the black hat in the shootout.
But as the sequence goes, somebody is going to get killed.
NATO (the Alliance absolutely necessary for the US hegemony to exist) versus Russia (absolutely necessary for China and Eurasia to exist) are in a showdown.
This is not a showdown of the US versus Russia.
The reason for that is China and Russia don’t want to destroy the US, if they don’t have to.
And they don’t have to.
Russia has to break NATO. That’s the showdown.
This is not a showdown of the US versus Russia.
The reason for that is China and Russia don’t want to destroy the US, if they don’t have to.
And they don’t have to.
I agree with your thoughtful post, except for this small part.
The USA in its current form must be destroyed because:
*A united USA still commands enough resources to threaten the civilised world
*A united USA is too bigoted to sincerely get along with the rest of the civilised world
*A united USA in its current form has never known peace
The USA needs to be broken up into a minimum 3+ separate republics. In exchange for full international recognition and legitimacy, each republic would need complete removal of its nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. War criminals (e.g. Bush, Trump, AIPAC, Soros, etc) will need to be extradited and tried. The other “weapons” like Hollywood or FAANGs can be tamed (or killed) by market forces.
I agree completely with you on the fate of US.
It needs to happen if this world is ever to be peaceful again. If not by internal dissolution, then it needs to be destroyed by force. This is the only way to pave a path to peace and prosperity of the world.
You disagree with Putin and Xi and their view of the global world relations.
The American market is too important to China, thus to Russia.
Russia has no animus with the American people.
So, both nation’s interests are to preserve the US economic market if it can be preserved.
If that can be accomplished, the EU market has a chance of survival, another huge market for China.
Your attitude is very slight, individualistic compared to the Chinese nation’s interests and the Russian interests.
A collapsed, broken America with thousands of nukes is very dangerous. Far worse than the USSR with its nukes.
The trick is to have the US step down from unipolar hegemon to one of Big 3 multilateral powers.
This is like capturing a wild animal and taming it into domestication, useful.
“A collapsed, broken America with thousands of nukes is very dangerous. Far worse than the USSR with its nukes”
United US is a plague onto this world. Better to cure the plague now, before it spreads too far (read, entire Russian sphere of influence). When that happens, we will have a broken, weakened Russia on one hand, and uncontested global evil hegemon on the other. China will be somewhere in the middle, as it always was. A never, ever meddling “usurper” to the throne. Just as US likes it.
If the collapse of USSR did this much damage to the world, imagine what would happen in a world without strong Russia.
Where is the American working class as an entity with a basic profound and decisive interest in the mix that requires collective revolutionary action?
All ordinary Americans share that same interest and should be as active as the working class in movement to change the USA from the ground up. Should revolutionary activity should be decisive positive factor relative to military activity and the danger of nuclear weapons
That is what is missing and urgent…massive popular, decisive political activity on the streets of the USA!
It’s totally absent, distracted by gender politics and political correctness. There is almost no Left left.
Big money in the US buys all opposition and anyone who isn’t bought gets caught in an Epsteinian/Moss operation.
I see you’ve modified your position. Unfortunately, the Kazakh trap didn’t scare the War Party enough. The talks are over as far as I’m concerned, stonewalled as anticipated. What happens at the end of January military technical-wise will be the unveiling of a new weapon system the collective West lacks and for which it has no defense. I’m speculating it’ll be a laser/energy pulse system that isn’t deterred by the atmosphere and is capable of bending–hitting a target over the horizon–like artillery but almost instant from firing to detonation. Russia must convince the War Party that it’s already defeated to accomplish its goals.
“It’ll be a laser/energy pulse system that isn’t deterred by the atmosphere and is capable of bending–hitting a target over the horizon”
What force would you use to bend the trajectory of a laser beam, if the mass of the earth itself can only bend light a trivial amount, as described below:
“The gravitational mass of the Earth bends light. However, it is a small fraction of an arc second, and may be simply ignored for most purposes. You would need a very sensitive instrument to detect the bending due to the Earth’s mass. The amount of curvature is not enough to cause light to follow a path parallel to the Earth’s surface. If you point the laser at a non-negative elevation angle, and no mountain is in the way, the light will escape into space.”
–https://www.quora.com/If-you-had-a-super-powerful-laser-that-could-shoot-as-far-as-100-km-and-you-shot-it-straight-would-the-laser-beam-curve-since-the-Earth-is-round
For most effective range you should mount the device on some type of air vehicle. At an elevation of 20,000 feet your range would be almost 300 km.
You have a fantastic imagination though.
Ho do you tame a wild animal with rabies? No cure out there yet…
“This is like capturing a wild animal and taming it into domestication, useful.”
The 1969 version was “How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?”
The US simply needs a complete overhaul of its elite class. US elites are corrupt and/or insane. Many Americans see this. Correcting this state of affairs will be the work of a generation or more, if it happens at all. Right now, the war that matters to me and many Americans is the war against the totalitarian leftists. And, they are everywhere. When you hear a US President name a big governmental takeover bill, ‘Build back Better’ … a phrase repeated everywhere in the West, and straight from the World Economic Forum Technocrats, you know the mask is off.
The “totalitarian lefties” are just a tool of the owners of the US/UK and EU. The west’s insane policies in education, policing, immigration, as well as the selection of blatantly incompetent people for high administrative positions, pursue the usual goal of Divide et Impera.
The owners are Banksters. Next are the war-profiteering MIC and supranational mega-corporations.
The masses are stripped of all mechanisms of control over western governments that function as the ‘representatives’ of the owners.
In the absence of homeostatic adjustments, western society has fallen victim to various parasites (Jewish Lobby, the MIC, et al) and dangerous diseases that appear as cancerous and gangrenous processes affecting societal structures. By destroying the vital mechanisms of feedback, the owners have ensured the death of western society.
Russia needs to target the ‘owners’ and the rotten upper echelon of the MIC and supranational mega-corporations. Make them shiver.
I agree with Anna and would suggest that the banksters should be first removed from Russia.
Agree. United States in its actual form (shape) is the problem. No a problem: The Problem.
Good evening everyone and as usual I’d like to congratulate Amarynth for her work while the very master is enjoying important spiritual vacations and your amazing crew for your dedication and high quality, thank you all in this new year, muito obrigado de coração, but once again I’ll get to my point: I believe something like this in fact will inevitably take place in the near future. And I mean “near” because I believe it may happen within some 150 years tops, in fact I can not see the US as it is being run as a society for the last 20 years to endure another 245 years as it has since the war with the english colonizers. I may not live long enough to see it because as everybody knows our lives are far too short thinking on historic therms, but I truly believe that in the near future the US will indeed break apart at most because it already is broken in far too many ways, and this is blatant even for us living abroad. So, I believe the very problem (for all of us in the world) is: how is it going to take place? The zombies that Hr. President sent to Genève to speak to the russian superb team was truly impressive. I am really amazed with the stubborness and short-sightness of the american diplomats. They simply ignored the russian pleas and brazilian outlets are saying the americans will not even consider what they are asking for like the “open doors” policy. And this makes me wonder if this split in the US may not be being brewed just before our eyes because as Hr. Orlov (also a master!) has put sharply it costs nothing really nothing at all for the russians to sink one or two USN boats, even a aircraft carrier, and just sit and wait for the heads that will roll and in this case I believe that it is not impossible that some sort of civil war breaks out and I have no idea of how would it be like but again I reassure I doubt it will plow ahead like it is. Boa noite from Vale do Ipiranga, 19C/66F, mod rain.
On the European side, this is unfinished business since the end of WWII. A lot of people want to put Russia at its place.
The USA is the major beneficiary at this time. Russia and China will have to take major steps and get did of the US dollar and back their currency with Gold. On the military side, we all know who has the uppercut hand: Russia.
NATO needs to be dissolved and it won’t happen until the situation in Ukraine is settled in favor of Russia.
Bigben,
I was watching Max Keiser’s show on RT, a week or so back, when his ‘guest’ (it might have been Michael Hudson, maybe Mitch Feierstein, can’t recall) mentioned a most interesting ‘alternative currency’.
According to the guest’s ‘sources’, Russia and China are working on a currency – maybe digital, maybe not – backed by “hard assets”. While gold was mentioned as one hard asset in the basket, so were a lot of industrial metals and minerals, like copper, nickel, lithium etc.
You know, all those materials China gets from all over the world, and converts into ‘things’ people need and want.
To my way of thinking, if the Yanks want to hasten the demise of the US$ as the global reserve currency, the quickest way to do that would be to force Russia off SWIFT. In fact, I’m starting to think the Russians might want that to happen.
I also think the 2 financial centres in the West, Wall St and the City of London Corp, would NOT want that to happen, particularly the City of London. Why? 2 reasons;
1. If Russia and China have a hard asset backed currency alternative ready to go, that would put a serious dent in the West’s derivatives’ markets.
2. The London Metals Exchange, where so much of the risky speculation, mostly via derivatives, takes place, to the detriment of stability, everywhere.
……he quickest way to do that would be to force Russia off SWIFT. In fact, I’m starting to think the Russians might want that to happen……
This is not in the interest of any business oligarchic elite and that is why the Russian people pay the price as the lowest placed on the scale of falling sh…it. With the explanation that they are doing it because of them.)). How do you think Gazprom-Sreder, Rosneft-Kneissl, Deripaska or Elvira-Kudrin-Greif branch of the Basel settlement bank would survive this decision? Import-export lobby? That’s why they curve around. Putin’s office is a compromise office, the DUMA a corrupt lobby center like the US Congress or your “assembly”..
You are merely presupposing the everyone will continue to trade through the US$#, forever. History says you’re wrong.
Larchmonter 445 wrote: “Russia has to break NATO”.
NATO changed from being an defense alliance to being an aggressor when the Warsaw pact ended in 1991.
Time have come to finally end 30 years of aggression, and it will not take long when the balloon goes up.
I believe NATO will fractured into 3 alliances:
The Nordic Alliance is (unofficially) already formed.
The Central European Alliance is almost ready.
The British Imperial Alliance, will be the Nations left in the former NATO Alliance.
The British Imperial Alliance just got a big tooth pulled out in the form of Kazakhstan because where Kazakhstans goes Central Asian states follow. That means that Erdogan’s Turkic space is broken and Turkey is just a Nato country close to bancruptcy. Without Turkey to be the military muscle of the Brits their British Imperial Alliance is dead.
The Central European Alliance without Belarus and Ukraine won’t work.
With Nordic Alliance I agree. Now the question is if Germany commits suicide via Greens or Sholc and German industrialist will save the country. If Germany wins, UK loses.
the millennial England will win over Germany, fundamentally because feminism has taken over the German elite and government. And England will always have support from the empire or what’s left of it.
The geographical center of Europe is located in Poland.
However, the political center of Europe is located in Brussels.
When I write Central European Alliance I mean the Nations once under the Carolingian Empire. Today, the Political center of EU.
In my opinion, an armed conflict between NATO and Russia will have 2 phases:
Phase 1: A short but major military power demonstration by Russia.
Russia will end the military power of Ukraine and any US-NATO deployments in Poland, Ukraine and Romania, even before the US-NATO will be able to react.
Phase 2: To stay out of the risk of nuclear war.
The Central European Alliance (EU) will turn into the 4th Reich Army. (The greatest fear of Nordic Nations)
This will leave Poland and Ukraine as buffer zone between Russia and Western Europe.
The Nordic Nations will form a Nordic Alliance of Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Estonia and Latvia will most likely join the Nordic Alliance.
Turkey will most likely drop its support to the remaining British imperial Alliance of USA, Canada, Britain, and Australia.
By then Romania, Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania may align with its European neighbors.
Or they may form an Intermarium alliance in between Russia and Western Europe, but without any support or interference from the British Imperial Alliance.
My analysis is based on historic alliances.
larchmonter445, many of your posts, this one especially remind me of peter o’toole in the lion in winter explaining to the young french king that he has lost & that he, henry, has won, & he gently lays out the reasons. you, like henry, are very good @ this, thank you. & o/c you are right, your reasoning/logic sound. i live in victoria bc, a once pretty backwater, last evening was the first newscast there was any mention of the talks or ukraine. i’ve long admired putin’s patience, his steadily moving his country & military back to power & prosperity bt here in the west we are so lost we really cannot grasp the gravity of what is happening. & for the first time i began to think perhaps mother russia will have to be very clear, very direct, in a brutally honest all bt mobster lingo, that the west needs to do this, & state in bold face what, & after that in smaller bt still bold face what will happen if they (regrettably we) do not. it seems we cannot comprehend the unspoken or implied, we are not subtle, russians, from composers, to novelists to diplomats to arms designers are all very good @ the nuance of an inferred suggestion. we need the blunt brutal hammer…unfortunately.
Agree with this statement that NATO must be broken.
I would say Russia and sane part of Biden administration has to break NATO (UK).
Who would have expected that the USA “swallow the toad” and fulfill Russia’s demands in the first negotiations and rush to pronounce it? If we didn’t take the statements of DC and Stoltenberg serious in the past, why now? The last say will of course be with the US-military and intelligence agencies because only they have the ability to assess Russia’s capabilities and decisiveness.
These are serious people who do not gamble with a thirld world war and they don’t boast in public in order to win elections. As I have been reading here many times the outcome of a US-Russia war is securely in Russia’s favour. And what would China and Iran do in such a case? Are the European politicians and media people ready for disaster out of spite? I do not believe it. Have we heard Macron and Scholz cheering on the Americans? Even the Poles and the Baltic are strangely silent since the ultimatum. The fear of god has gripped them.
So let’s be optimistic that the war will be postponed ad calendas graecas.
I wonder if Russia had the US chemical labs near Russia’s borders on the table.
Were there chemical weapons labs in addition to biological research labs? Perhaps that is separate/distinct, or perhaps they were co-located.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/kazakhstan-turns-into-graveyard-for-us-diplomacy/
Pardon me and thanks for correcting me. Yes I meant biological labs.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said, “China and Kazakhstan are friendly neighbors and permanent strategic partners. China maintains close cooperation with Kazakhstan and will provide assistance in accordance with the requests of the Kazakh party and within its capabilities . . .”
See: https://sputniknews.com/20220111/china-ready-to-provide-assistance-to-kazakhstan-within-its-capabilities-foreign-ministry-says-1092173253.html
“The foreign ministry did not clarify what kind of assistance China will provide to Kazakhstan and whether the country is ready to send its peacekeepers to its neighbor if necessary.”
China needs to step up with boots on the ground and ‘start walking the talk’ to help the Kazakhstani military and civilian police finish what Russia started. Russia needs to know that China will have its back tactically as Mother looks to her western border and be ready for any U.S.-NATO craziness they will do inside the Ukraine.
I doubt anything will happen until after the Nato/Russia and OSCE talks. I also doubt there will be any agreement during those talks as the USA believes that Russia is bluffing, as does Europe.
Post failed talks, Russia has many options and could be expected to perform a short, sharp jab to force the US back to the table. The question is, what would this look like?
1. Issue a one hour warning to remove all US troops/bases in Syria? You have one hour, the missiles are already flying.
2. Disconnect from SWIFT voluntarily and declare Russian territory now extends to the Dnieper and includes Odessa to link Transnistria?
3. Sinking/shooting down the next US/NATO ship/plane that violates Russian borders?
I don’t believe any of these are likely, but it is interesting to speculate.
1. Issue a one hour warning to remove all US troops/bases in Syria . . . .
I’ve said this for 4 years but it would need to be 72 hours as the US have a lot of Tampons to pack. Plus airlifting ISIS commanders onto the next project takes time.
@JackJC
n.2 is the best! I agree that a voluntary disconnection from SWIFT would be a shock to the West which thinks Russia would not be able to survive without it. I would also like to hit the government and communication centers of Kiev and damage Galicia which is the most fascist part of Ukraine.
Terrific piece. The ‘results’ (or lack thereof) from the meeting in Geneva, need to be considered within the context of the current state of the American Empire. Consider-
1) None of the structural problems giving rise to the Global Financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008 have been resolved. Instead, the FED has used the Treasury as a de facto taxpayer-supported ‘piggy bank’ (the FED cannot print money) to provide > $40 trillion of ultra-cheap money to prop up equities, bonds and over-priced real estate (creating the ‘everything bubble’); the FED is currently spending $120 billion/month buying toxic corporate debt. In 2019, the FED provided circa $4.5 trillion in loans to large Wall St banks to cover the repo market which locked up (See: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/mainstream-media-has-morphed-from-battling-the-fed-in-court-in-2008-to-groveling-at-its-feet-today/). To put this in perspective, since Mar, 2020, US government debt has hemorrhaged circa $6 trillion; total US debt exceeds $28.5 trillion (See- Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN); Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN).
2) US taxpayers have spent more than $21 trillion on post-911 militarization. Despite this taxpayer largess, the Pentagon confronts a repeat of the $2 trillion Afghanistan debacle in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, poorest country in the ME (See- https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/war/; https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/). Not to be deterred, Biden’s 2022 military appropriation (approved by 88-12 vote in the Senate) is a record $770 billion.
3) The US ruling elite view the Russia-China-Iran axis as an intolerable obstacle to US global power. They have responded in a predicable way- with an increasingly reckless, aggressive, bellicose and astronomically expensive military response in Ukraine/Black Sea- to confront Russia, Persian Gulf- Iran and Taiwan Strait/S China Sea- China. Unfortunately, the Empire does not have sufficient force projection to prevail in any of these theaters.
Bottom line- We are seeing the accelerating decline of late-stage American capitalism which has progressed to the point where its very survival is contingent upon constant debt monetization (aka money printing) to prop up financial markets and the military. This is becoming increasingly tenuous as this orgy of money printing and debt has created gigantic bubbles in every asset class- ‘everything bubble’, increasing inflation and threatening to derail the dollar’s role as world reserve currency. Starting new wars with the Russia-China-Iran axis is only going to accelerate the Empires decline.
@ Paul
” Starting new wars with the Russia-China-Iran axis is only going to accelerate the Empires decline.”
True. However, the Empire is entirely capable of causing a lot of damage on its way down, and it will inflict pain and destruction in many bloody conflicts in the short and long terms, low intensity or not, before it is finally buried. The treatment of this agonizing behemoth requires blows at points that will further accelerate its downward condition. The military-technical response the Russians are threatening with, might be a preparation to speed that decline, not precisely a war, but a positioning, setting all elements in place.
I am not hoping for a failure of the negotiations, but I am looking forward to see Russia’s next move.
Lone Wolf
For some absolutely mind boggling context to current events, please refer to the latest at http://www.wallstreetonparade.com
The NY Fed, 2 years ago gave the Big Four Wall Street firms 11.23 TRILLION in secret Repo loans…..
The NY Fed waited the maximum 8 quarters before they had to own up.
The presstitute MSM has blacked out this kinda shocking/ sickening wrinkle.
This was one of the reasons for the Covid con job/ distraction.
One can only wonder what truth will be told about the following quarters.
The Empire is plummeting into an economic abyss that is almost unimaginable.
The Sh#tshow continues until it doesn’t
Blessings to All
.
Holy cow! This can’t be correct. There is no historical precedent for this if it is true. Has anyone else heard of this?
“starting new wars with the Russia-China-Iran axis” could prolong living at the expense of the rest of the world. They will do anything & everything to keep some exchange value to the “chosenites´” counterfeit money, the US Dollar.
Brilliant, this just clarifies things.
Kazakhstan showed what a few armed and dedicated men can do to save their country from NWO insanity.
Now it’s time to repeat in the Ukraine. It will happen so fast, heads will spin (in the West, that is).
After the Ukraine, then where else? I pray in the US but no guarantees here…
Tom, where do you get the idea it was a few armed men…..go write for Hollywood. Highly trained contingent of multiple Anti Terror groups from many different countries…. and that does not get organized overnight. If anything, they where training, prepared, and ready to go before the riots started.
Cheers M
Uhm, I believe Tom is referring to the Russian and CSTO troops, not the insurgents.
Saw this article on RT – https://www.rt.com/russia/545682-kiev-never-join-nato/
Not sure if it’s wishful thinking or the real deal. Would be nice if it’s the latter.
Thanks, Saker, for all the analysis and news. Makes it all less mysterious.
The article you linked is quite interesting. Essentially, it says an ukrainian representative from the opposition side said he had talked to officials from 3 different nations that belong to NATO and was told that the US and Russia had already agreed on the Russia demands. Basically, Ukraine would never join NATO and nuclear missiles near Russia is a no-no.
Since I’m not from the region, I don’t know the credibility of this ukrainian source, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was true, and hence what we are seeing right now is just a smoke screen to appease Ukraine, making it think NATO is on its side. Actually, my feeling at the end of december, when that phone call between Putin and Biden occurred, was that things were ready to be settled. After that, however, came the string rhetoric especially from the US side strongly suggesting otherwise.
Can it really be all a smoke screen? It’d be really nice if it was. It’s befuddling the US trying to stir trouble in Europe because of a small nation like Ukraine. Are the US officials that much rabid and insane? Even for the standard of the US, I find hard to believe this level of arrogance and selfishness. I’m not saying there is no arrogance, but these level are unbelievable. As others have pointed out, their economy is not in the best shape, and they have to contend with China in this area. This is not an easy task, and you’d think they would not try to make matters worse.
However, I didn’t expect the kind of rhetoric that the Department of State was publishing recently. I’d think that was beyond trying to save their face. From the NATO/EU side, not as much, but from the US I was expecting a little more common sense. If I’m not mistaken, Jens something, the NATO leader, is going to leave his post soon, so whatever he said was not that important. The Josep Borrel guy was also rabid, but I don’t know how important he is. What Blinken said, however, is a lot more serious, I’d say. How is he going to backtrack later, if the US and Russia really has a hidden agreement? That will be interesting to see.
But it would be nice if things were going that way. It is nice thought that this whole theater could appease Ukraine momentarily, until perhaps the current nazi administration is replaced by a more rational leadership…
American ‘logic’ — if there is such an aspect within the paranoid schizophrenic thinking of that insane assylum run by the inmates (some with keys) — will be almost totally focused on 2022 mid-terms and “Orange Man Bad” etc.
Given that future elections are likely to be less open to corrupt/contested outcomes, then a lot of posturing and MSM product will be focused on making old Joe Biden look tough (and Hunter remain invisible) to the voter.
The Republicans will likely win the balance of power in the houses and that will give Biden the excuse for not doing anything to implement the espoused election promises. Fed money printing to the Moon will continue. The campaign donors will be happy with the outcomes (or lack thereof) and the Republicans will be happy with their increased share of the sponsor’s loot and 24 months to run the 2024 race.
Whether Trump takes the lead role is likely to be decided by focus group dynamics — but his alleged “Russia friendly” stance will be a strong domestic negative if there is a war with Putin sizzling away in the background.
And for all their worth as the “salt of the earth” the average American “Deplorable” is unlikely to be able to withstand the cognitive dissonance involved in the MSM playbook. And with the USA education system as it is, many are far below average. A vote for Trump will be a vote for Putin etc. Of course, if Joe Rogan were to stand up and run then a third vector might emerge — but why would he? They’d just play with him like they do old Bernie Sanders.
I saw that article. Not sure what to make of it, given that the US State Department just denied that the US will even discuss restricting expansion of NATO.
I suspect it’s bullcrap from some guy injecting himself into the mix.
That RT piece, about the Ukranian pollie saying the Russians and Yanks have already agreed Ukraine won’t be joining NATO, very much fits with this;
https://tass.com/world/1386353
“Ukraine ready for necessary decisions on Donbass at Normandy Four summit — Zelensky
It is high time to negotiate a settlement to the conflict in a substantive way, the Ukrainian President stressed”
“According to the Ukrainian presidential office, a new Normandy Four summit would considerably bolster the settlement efforts in Donbass. “Ukraine, France, and Germany are taking serious efforts to resume resultative work in the Normandy format at various level. We expect the Russian side to support these efforts and promote progress in implementing the resolutions of the Paris-hosted Normandy Four summit. Another summit in the Normandy format would offer a serious impetus to the peace process,” citing Andrey Yermak, chief of the presidential office…………”
By my reading, Zelensky is saying; ‘Shall we give Minsk another try?’
As I noted to my cohort earlier, after reading that;
“They can ‘expect’ what they like from “the Russian side” – they’re the only 1 of the 4 parties who have stuck with Minsk from the get go. So, their message will be simple; ‘Step 1: Stop killing your own citizens, Step 2: Negotiate with those citizens on a degree of autonomy acceptable to them, a la so many other places in Europe, Step 3: Get back to us when you’ve done Steps 1 & 2.’
Minsk is such a simple document. What is it? One A4 page? Generally speaking, the simpler the document (and whatever it represents), the harder it is to sustain the bs about everything being ‘complex’. We saw the same thing in the Russian ‘ultimatum’, and in Rybakov’s handling of it.
I’m reasonably confident Russia is now running this show. The rubes on the other side of the debate will come to various realisations at different rates. But, they either get to grips with the reality – in time – or they may not have a seat when the music stops.
The Russians hold the cards they need. They’ll get the job done.
Russia slapped France and Germany a week or so back, over some double dealing on Minsk. Dumb, dumb, dumb – did they think the Russians wouldn’t find out?!?!
From last September:
Arranging Normandy Four summit in foreseeable future seems problematic — source
https://tass.com/world/1340315
From that article, and the one you cite, it seems to me that Ukraine simply wants to hold another Normandy Four meeting simply to muddy the waters about implementing Minsk or re-negotiate Minsk. This is what Zelensky has been doing since he got in power, with all his efforts to drag Putin into a meeting so he can declare that Russia is part of the internal conflict.
As you say, Russia is not going to do that.
Zero Hedge reports that “Biden Seeking Advice From Russia Hawks On How To Handle Ukraine Talks”. Jake Sullivan reaching out to Michael McFaul (McFoul). Good luck with that, “Biden”.
What happened so far this week?
*Moscow showed the world it legitimately tried every diplomatic option to prevent war
*CSTO showed it was for real, and its training exercises were useful in the real world
*Uncle Scam showed its “diplomats” are truly ignorant & immature schoolyard bullies that are not prepared for a real fight.
As for turning up the “pain dial,” I would love for Moscow to be pro-active instead of reactive. More specifically it would be great if:
*Moscow bans NATO civilian airliners from flying over Russian airspace
*Moscow withdraws from SWIFT
*Moscow refuses to accept US dollars for its exports
*Moscow bans all “spot market” exports of petroleum resources (also titanium) to NATO
Finally, if the Russian military must attack NATO forces, would it be a good idea to launch missile strikes against al-Tanf airbase in Syria?
Great suggestions, except for al-Tanf airbase. Leave that one to Iran.
Moscow doesn’t need SWIFT, it is a western tool. Moscow also does not need the US dollar, it is an even bigger western tool.
Banning the airspace could work, but many friendly nations were dragged in NATO, like Hungary. Russia definitely needs a more pro-active approach, though.
Stepski Sokole, pišem ti na maternjem jeziku jer želim bolje da izrazim svoju potpunu zabezeknutost reakcijom zapadnjaka na ruske “predloge”.
Evropljani na društvenim mrežama su u totalnom delirijumu, taj narod živi u nekom svom svetu. Oni ne vide apsurdnost trenutne geopolitičke situacije na ruskoj granici. Ljudi otvoreno brane razmeštanje NATO trupa u Baltičkim zemljama, dok kritikuju rusko razmeštanje trupa unutar granice zemlje. Lažu da je Ukrajina okupirana od strane ruske vojske, a ignorišu američku okupaciju Evrope, Japana i dobrog dela Bliskog Istoka.
Čak sam video da oni slave američku hegemoniju, tvrdeći kako je ona dobra za ceo svet! Ali dobro, oni su na kraju nebitni. Gomila ispranih mozgova bez ikakve moći.
Sjedinjene Američke države moraju popustiti pred ruskim ultimatumom, ako želimo da ovaj svet ne ode dođavola. U suprotnom, predviđam da će cela Evropa goreti ponovo. Ako se to desi, Rusija mora da udari tamo gde je najbolnije: na američko kopno. Možda će taj nemoralni, priglupi narod konačno shvatiti sve strahote rata onda kada izgori nekoliko njihovih gradova.
Možda.
——————-
Google-translate from Mod:-
Step-tongue, I am writing to you in your mother tongue because I better express my full zeal with the reaction of Westerners on Russian “suggestions.”
Europeans on social networks are in total delirium, that people live in a world. They do not see the absurdity of the current geopolitical situation on the Russian border. People openly defend the deployment of NATO troops in Baltic countries, while criticizing Russian troops within the country’s border. They lie that Ukraine is occupied by the Russian army, and Ignore the American occupation of Europe, Japan and the good part of the Middle East.
I even saw that they celebrate American hegemony, claiming that she is good for the whole world! But well, they are in the end unnecessary. A bunch of washed brains without any power.
The United States must give in front of Russian ultimatum, if we want this world to go to hell. Otherwise, I predict that the whole of Europe will burn again. If that happens, Russia has to hit where the best is: to the American mainland. Maybe that immoral, stupid people will finally understand all the horrors of war then when several of their cities burn.
Maybe.
To talk of Nuclear War as something that should happen is madness. The entire World, including Russia would be burned to ashes. Russia may have better missiles (or will have) and better missile defenses, but it does not matter. When thousands of nuclear warheads, each powerful enough to destroy a city, are falling out of the sky at Mach 20, nothing will matter, it will all be over for much of Civilization, including Russia.
Any larger military conflict between US and Russia would involve the use of nuclear weapons. Thinking that they will not be used is naive. How useful is a weapon you cannot use in battle?
Why else are countries competing to produce a low yield warhead,which can be used as a more powerful version of a conventional weapon? How can you prove it’s a nuclear weapon if it does not produce waste and has a limited EMP blast? You cannot.
‘How useful is a weapon you cannot use in battle?’
You must not have been alive for the past 60 years. The ‘use’ is to prevent your enemy from using it … and that is all. MAD – Mutual Assured Destruction has kept the World from a general war since the 1950’s. That is why these weapons are NEVER intended to be used. Their purpose is to dissuade the use by ‘the enemy’.
By the way, MAD is a principal in which Putin and every sane World leader believes. A peaceful World without nuclear weapons would be better, but in the meantime, MAD is the best principal there is.
Nemirni; “bide miren”…not all Americans are “immoral, stupid people”, though most of their ‘leadership’, would be. I felt it was important to point out that generalisations are sometimes a little ‘too sweeping’.
You are 100% correct!
I do not think the US can openly concede to the Russian “non-ultimatum ultimatum”. Nor does the US want an open military engagement with Russia.
My guess is the US will heed the ultimatum in actions while denying them in words. Then go back to focusing on provocations against China.
Even if USA heeds the ultimatum in actions while it denies them in words, there is no guarantee that they will not stop heeding the ultimatum at some point in the future.
Of course they will not keep the agreement as soon as it is advantageous not to. When has the Empire ever kept an agreement? Isn’t that how we got here in the first place?
“My guess is the US will heed the ultimatum in actions while denying them in words. Then go back to focusing on provocations against China.”
I think this is mostly correct. Of course, the Empire will continue RFing Ukraine and pushing it as far as they can get away with.
There is of course a Russian military solution to the Ukrainian problem without having to take a big bite out of the moldy bagel. Somebody posted this discussion on Ukraine yesterday and I watched it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r5EBMPmKEjo&t=1993s
Within the discussion Col. Douglas McGregor explains how reuniting the East bank of the Dnieper with Russia could be achieved and placing a sizable force in Brest would stop NATO from doing anything about it. I think this would be a very quick operation counted in days or two weeks at most.
For those that don’t know Col. McGregor, he wrote “Breaking the Phalanx” on reforming the U.S. military and paid for it with his career. A lot of his ideas were later adopted. Unfortunately for the Empire the best ideas are still ignored. Hugely, influential in his day.
https://www.amazon.com/Breaking-Phalanx-Landpower-Bibliographies-American/dp/0275957942
The words and written agreements and guarantees given by the US are not worth much. This we have seen time and again.
Therefore Russia needs to respond to actions, not be fooled by words, and to act accordingly. Respond in her own way and in her own time, in accordance with her own geopolitical interests.
I am starting to be convinced that the RF is only negotiating now to legally justify military action later. Their security concerns are very real and they made an attempt to solve these issues diplomatically. They got nowhere so solving these issues by other means is fully justified.
If I were Kiev and would play the end around here. The USG is pushing Kiev into a spot where they are likely to be crushed whilst the world watches and does nothing. Why not negotiate with Russia? Concede Crimea and agree to Russian dominated areas being formed into an independent Republic. Russia guarantees Kiev independence with an agreement that they will not join NATO. Kiev must know now that they have zero chance of joining NATO in any case.
Problem is that if Zelensky were to try that, the hardliners would kick him out and replace him with someone even more fanatically anti-Russian. The CIA and the neocons would back that, unless Biden were to overrule them – which frankly I don’t see happening.
Ukraine is not going to back down unless the CIA and the neocons are taken out of the picture. And I’m completely convinced Biden is on board with a war between Ukraine and Russia.
I agree the possibility of Ukraine directly negotiating with Russia is a very long shot. It should be very clear to Ukraine by now that they are dangerously close to nonexistence and NATO is not coming to the rescue. I would take the long shot or resign immediately if I were Zelensky.
I do not understand the endgame for the deep state (CIA, Neocons, etc.) What have they to gain in losing Western Europe to Russia? Surely, they don’t think this can end favorably. The day after hostilities start is a new world and there is no going back. Better to negotiate now then negotiate after the start when the position will be even weaker. I don’t think there is a long game here.
General Hasting Ismay is remembered today largely because of his famous assessment of NATO, offered when he was the alliance’s first secretary general. The purpose of the new treaty organization founded in 1952, Ismay asserted, was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”
US is interested in pushing EU down because EU have/had the power to challenge US economically. EU has not made a total fool out of themselves to the Russians. The Russians won`t accept EU in any way.
Yes well this was the way they handled it in the Cuban crisis. US appeared strong but quietly later the nukes were removed from Turkey.
Now if they have competent people in the USA, there would be the same playbook, which might look something like:
1. no more arms sales to the Ukraine
2. obvious but gradual removal of US/UK troops/advisors/trainers in the Ukraine
3. Technical problems with the US bases in Romania and removal of missiles which need to be sent home for “repair.”
4. implementation of the Minsk agreement- turned into a positive US initiative.
5. Many NGOs in Russia’s neighbours will find that they have no further role or insufficient resources to remain.
6. NS2 starts
Unfortunately it is often the case that as empires decline, competent people disappear and the place is run by ideological second raters. Sadly I doubt that there are enough rational people left. Possibly there are some in the military with enough clout to force the issue, but I am not optimistic.
“Yes well this was the way they handled it in the Cuban crisis. US appeared strong but quietly later the nukes were removed from Turkey”.
According to RFK, Jr in “American Values” (p. 237 paperback) JFK had given the order to withdraw the Jupiters from Turkey months earlier. But the Pentagon simply disobeyed him.
“Khrushchev sent Jack a second, more belligerent letter, demanding that, in addition to the pledge not to invade Cuba, the United States must remove its Jupiter missiles from the Russian border in Turkey. In fact, Jack had ordered the obsolete Jupiters removed months before, but a defiant Pentagon had delayed the decommissioning”.
Unfortunately that dog don’t hunt – Russians have clearly asked for explicit, written, official, signed and notarised safety guarantees. No leeway for sloppy half jobs.
Thanks
If the idea of the ultimatum was to obtain an acceptable compromise to avoid further escalation then it s a complete failure. The US is completely deaf to what Russia has to say. However I don’t think the Russians went to Geneva expecting a positive outcome. I think the idea of the ultimatum was to obtain the green light to proceed with other means than talks and negotiations.
The statements coming from western leaders make things clearer and gave the Russians the green light.
The US said nato expansion won’t stop and that they refuse to even consider to talk about this issue. Germany made another statement saying NS2 doesn’t meet EU requirements. Sweden says Russia is a threat to European security. Denmark threatens to deploy 4 F15s and a frigate in the baltic to again “send a strong message to Russia” the usual blah blah blah.
Basically it’s more of the same BS but this time it’s more of the same BS in front of Russia’s ultimatum. It sends a very clear message to Russia. It means that western extreme hardliners prevail in the west. Negociations have officially become useless and chances to avoid escalation are now very close to 0. Last month Russia threatened to switch to military means if negociations fail. Negotiations failed so now Russia will have to switch to military means. I would say that for the first time since 2014 Russia will likely escalate first which means Russia will take the initiative. They will choose when where and how they will make their move which will significantly increase the efficiency of their move.
These failed negociations revealed that the western rulers really believe in their absolut superiority and invincibility.
To conclude I would say that these failed negociations gave the worst possible outcome. No breakthrough was achieved but even worse they showed that finding an acceptable compromise is currently impossible. It means this summit significantly reduced the chance of a soft landing and significantly increased the risk of a military clash or even worse war.
The reason for this public treaty offer and request to sign or reject it formally in writting is to have a CLEAR RECORD IN WORLD HISTORY – we, Russia, offered you the peace and, you, the west, rejected it.
Here it is, with your signature. There is no way of going back after this, this is your historical accounability for what will follow…
Putin minds about the future and how the history would see his actions.
There is only one thing Russia can do to bring the leaders of the West back to reality: to turn up what I call the “pain dial”
Examples? I keep wondering why Russia keeps saying it will always honor its contracts for gas and oil delivery, and that it has no intentions to stop exporting to Europe (and the US for that matter). It may make sense from an economic standpoint to keep doing this (although I wonder), but why keep saying you will never turn off the tap? At least be ambiguous, or issue an open threat. Europe is constantly accusing Russia of ‘weaponizing’ the delivery of fossil fuels, so why not do it and remove all doubt. It’s like an abusive relationship. One party keeps abusing the other, and the other keeps putting up with it.
“Europe is constantly accusing Russia of ‘weaponizing’ the delivery of fossil fuels, so why not do it and remove all doubt.”
Exactly. Pure resource envy. Does anyone think the Europeans and USA would not themselves exploit this vector if they could? They play the sanctions power games on every other level ($usd, SWIFT & Saudi oil etc) — so why are resources the exception?
By doing so, they would hand over to the US the EU gas market and thus lose important revenue, while strengthening their main opponent. They would also lose important trump card in case of actual war.
Nonsense. If EU could get it’s gas elsewhere it would. EU loves to torment it’s supplier, Russia.
“No progress” from the deputy FM may well be just a negotiation pressure. There was progress. They (Russia) seem to have won almost all, really, practically all. I based this conclusion on the following fact: Sherman already indicated, didn’t she, that the removal of missiles from Poland and Romania is possible. That also means, then, that it is understood that no such weapons can be placed in Eastern Europe, a key demand of the Russian proposal(s). This also implies that the U.S. side understands NATO cannot expand further. For this missile location concession speaks louder than words and it means they understand the Russian security concerns. Moreover, it would not make sense to incorporate more members into NATO if Russian concerns as to weapons are already being accommodated now.
I don’t know if it is Wendy Sherman or Biden but the U.S. is showing the flexibility it needed to show. Some things it (U.S.) cannot change verbally this suddenly, but change de facto it can, and that’s what it seems to be doing. Some Ukranian politician is already saying that they have no chance of joining NATO (that’s clear already after these meetings).
I happened to think that one of Putin’s underlying (perhaps secret) trajectory in this saga is cause the American (or force them) to exit their Military Occupation of Germany. Why. Answer: Russia wants free access to German Capitals and technology ever since the time of Peter the Great.
And, since then the British and now American combined are blocking this fusion. a Fusion they see as dangerous as they will out compete the British/American Empire globally.
Russia has the technology. Germany makes some nice but overpriced cars and a machine tool industry but not much else. Certainly no big ticket technology (nuclear energy, advanced aircraft, etc.). Their Green Energy project will, if not already has, bankrupt them. It will take huge investments to undo the damage.
Germany could make a nice economic partner for Russia – a sort of Junior China. But not a partner not to be trusted.
Germany is the world leader in champion small companies. Germany’s decentralised and small local banking system allows these nimble smaller companies to immediately take advantage of new technological innovations with financing from these local banks with whom they have had a long term relationship and record of successful investment.
Fantastic observation in my view.
” This also implies that the U.S. side understands NATO cannot expand further.”
The State Department stated on Monday that the US refuses to even talk about that.
“Sherman already indicated, didn’t she, that the removal of missiles from Poland and Romania is possible.”
But with what preconditions? That Russia “de-escalate with Ukraine” – which Russia isn’t even involved in? When a diplomat says something is “possible”, but then imposes conditions which are complete non-starters, that’s called “refusing to negotiate.” That’s what is happening in the JCPOA negotiations. That’s what happens with most US “negotiations” – the US demands capitulation while saying they’ll throw you a bone.
All of that is just a deceitful tactic …
Interesting experiences and “insights” of a Ukrainian political scientist (in Russian)
https://riafan.ru/1583474-zastryavshii-v-alma-ate-ukrainec-raskryl-nepriyatnye-dlya-kieva-podrobnosti-besporyadkov
Take a look:
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2022110181-ImmYr.html
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20221112132-bQaiZ.html
Now that’s an adventure: being allowed to fly in an IL-76 of the military …
@Larchmonter445
“This is not a showdown of the US versus Russia.
The reason for that is China and Russia don’t want to destroy the US, if they don’t have to.
And they don’t have to.”
I fully agree.
We live in the age of the peaceful rise of giants.
The aggressive sellers of explosive healing ointments will be disappointed, there will be no medival battles.
Trade and other tools are usefull tools to avoid civilian damage, especially to protect Russians and Chinese living in the West.
The coming weeks and months will be critical for the Russian-Chinese friendship to fight back-on-back to avert further damage. China’s financial, economic, and technological power is crucial here to defeat the common enemy.
Russia back-on-back with China!
Putting missiles in Cuba,Putting nuclear arms in Belarus and the Kalinin Oblast, dismembering of the Ukraine and something is brewing in the Balkans, Republic of Sperka is causing trouble in Bosnia Russia can exploit this…who knows what’s going to happen,Russians do the unexpected
Wendy Sherman says they are not at the stage yet of “back and forth” negotiations.
No….what she needed to say was “we surrender”.
I have some questions that maybe people can answer over time. Essentially how united is NATO? Some thoughts, based on little but gut feel and I would be interested in how others may see it.
1. I have a suspicion that the Kazakhstan nonsense may have been UK/Mossad inspired without direct involvement on USA. what I wonder is, if having realised that the USA was ready to agree to Russian demands, the UK/Mossad decided to throw the dice to try to change direction. I include Mossad here because winning Kazakhstan would be key to taking out Iran. Both the UK and Israel would be big losers if the USA ever accepts reality and becomes on of the big players rather than the dominant hegemon.
2. What is the role of Germany? Will economic interests over ride the current political position?
3. What is the role of France?
4. The Nordic countries seem to have shifted heavily away from their neutrality of the cold war years. How significant is this? why has this happened? Could this change ire they revert to their previous neutrality and would this change the NATO dynamic.
5. We hear lots about the economic sanctions the NATO will impose. Just how significant are these. Obviously SWIFT is no longer much of an issue, but what about the possible freezing of assets. is this a real threat or simply a western myth that Russia is still dominated by self serving oligarchs.
Here are some of the things I’ve learned through experience or respected expert opinion from various sources.
1. NATO is disjointed and no match for Russia militarily at this time. It would take years for the readiness of NATO to match Russia’s. The most effective portions of the U.S. military are Naval and Aerospace not large scale ground warfare.
2. In a sane world Germany’s economic interests would push Germany partially into the Russian sphere of influence. The politics defy logic unless you factor in that Germany is a occupied country under certain treaty obligations.
4. The Nordic countries will stay neutral despite the rhetoric. Finland, Sweden and the Baltic States are particularly vulnerable in the case of a war with Russia. They don’t gain at all by giving up their neutral position.
5. Sanctions against Russia would be painful to Russia but nothing that can’t be overcome. Russia holds much its debt and has a reserve of gold and currency. Russia and China have also developed alternatives to SWIFT. The blowback from such sanctions would also hurt a large part of Europe and to a lesser degree the U.S. itself.
Don’t forget that Biden’s son has business in Ukraine! The point is: Putin surprised the West, the empire. Western leaders are walking inside the room at night with no sleep, red eyes and headache. Others in the West are simply numb. They were surprised. Prize winners sent a joint letter to Biden. They are afraid. Like the face of a surprised birthday boy! Blinken is stuttering LOL
-Russia taking further unilateral actions.
– Russian forces pulling out of Kazakhstan.
Eh, the treachery, the treason, the weakness….and the wickednes. The sorry state of those who pretended to be the partners to the devil just to become the devil themselves. See you in the hell for you won’t be around for much longer.
What’s at issue here? Strategic missiles capable of threatening major Russian cities. They’re too close. The Russians want the Americans to back off. This business does not concern Europeans. They’re irrelevant. The diplomatic message is for Washington. But it’s a forgone conclusion that the circus of Beltway political animals will just preform the tricks they already know. So what’s the point of talking at all? I take it that the ‘or else’ is about the deployment of very formidable strategic weapons aimed at America that they cannot defend against. These were unveiled by Putin back in 2018. Strategic weapons are produced to strengthen the hand of diplomacy. They are deployed for as long as diplomacy does not achieve its purpose and retired when it does. The deployment of the nuclear powered strategic missiles and that monstrous nuclear torpedo capable of creating massive tidal waves sends a message. The message is directed to military professionals who are charged with defending America. The pressure for a negotiated treaty prohibiting such weapons must come from them since we are completely clear that it will not come from the spook orchestrated media and their political class prime time performers. I take it then that the Russian aim is to induce a division in the Western elites, between the ideologues one the one hand and the professionals who are obliged to deal with realities, the officers who must brief the political decision makers. The aim is to restore a treaty system.
During the War on Terror – so called – the neocons eliminated the real intelligence agents, area specialists who spoke the local languages, had on the ground contacts and knew their business. These people were gotten rid of and replaced with cranks like Douglas Feith and cohorts who manufactured intelligence to suit predetermined, mainly Zionist, plans. Back then they bragged about ‘creating their own reality’. Of course there was some truth to this. The reality of terrorists they claimed were threatening the West was indeed created by them – with a little help from their friends. But this gambit will not work with Russia, nor China. The deployment of real strategic weapons systems must necessarily result in the revival of real deal military intelligence. To be sure, we’re banking on their residual survival instincts. But in any case, that, as it seems to me, appears to be the plan. I doubt that they will allow the present negotiations to drag on for too long. These are a pro forma ritual to call attention to the planned deployment. Afterwards it is to be hoped that the Scott Ritters’ of the West, and his professional cohorts within the military will do the talking until the Americans are ready to come back to the negotiating table.
Nadie de todos los que comentan acerca del perturbado comportamiento de la elite de EEUU, es que esas personas, en los general- salvo quizás algunas respetables y mínimas excepciones- siempre están bajo el influjo de poderosas drogas.
Una persona no drogada jamás llegará a algún acuerdo o razonar pacíficamente con un tipo desquiciado y perdido en las drogas. Ellos ven la realidad muy diferente a las personas con sano juicio.
I dont know guys. You are all writing about dismantling the US, but that should absolutely not be the goal . If something needs to be done, that is helping the Americans to dismantle the huge military complex that is feeding all this conflicts. Many evils have come from the US, but even more good things. American inventions have provided you with the means to have this website and be able to communicate.
And remember one thing, the US can not loose a global conflict, if they want to win it. Just ask the Germans and Japanese.
I care for your music (until 1990s) more than the internet. The problem is you need to be willing to challenge your true rulers (deep state) and depose them. We both know that this is well-nigh impossible and really, the only way of defanging the rabid empire would be through fomenting local civil wars from abroad – especially on the racial and then ideological basis. These differences can be exploited cheaply and efficiently (it’s all in the scribblings of Gene Sharp). This would rapidly fragment states into local racial or ideological communities that would interact with others to form larger agglomerations of territory based on ethnicity/race/culture. The idea of the United States should wane gradually to be replaced by a Hispania Occidental comprising Nevada, Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico), Alliance Francophone (Alabama, Mississippi Louisiana, Florida and Georgia). The centre will or should be restored to the Red Indians (permission to use this label from a Lakota half-chief) and the northern belt linking the coast enclaves and the Great Lakes would be retained by the Whites. Parts of Chicago and the French territories would be conquered by the black people.
This of course is not very plausible – much more plausible schemes exist. The question is whether China and Russia have the wherewithal to do a good job surreptitiously.
“ And remember one thing, the US can not loose a global conflict, if they want to win it. Just ask the Germans and Japanese.”
I think that is the Hollywood reading of history. The US is not about to win any global conflicts, struggle as it does with regional and local ones. But I agree, if the US could be set back on the right path that would be much much better. I just don’t see that happening. The entire society is in a state of disarray and decay.
Again, the Russians had nothing to do w/any of this…..
again sarcasm or troll .. trolling rating is getting higher … mod
Japs or Germans didn’t have nukes or Russia as an Ally. Just saying.
The US cannot lose a global conflict? Why? Because you say so? With the exception of Grenada and maybe Panama, the US lost every single war since World War 2. Oh and btw, Germany was defeated by the Soviet Union, so no, Tom Hanks did not defeat the Reich. And considering all of its crimes, yes the US should definitely be dismantled to make this planet a much better place.
The Germans would recognize that 7/8 of World War II was on the Eastern Front, which the Russians won at huge cost (100 times USA losses). The Japanese would recognize that they better surrender before the USSR’s Army could get there. Destroying Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the bomb was to demonstrate it off to Stalin, not to actually win the war.
Very interesting article from Scott Ritter: what-war-with-russia-would-look-like
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/10/what-war-with-russia-would-look-like/
Russia wants strategic stability/security; and that means security of its homeland. Everything else — limitation of Nato expansion, withdrawal of missiles, dismantling of bases, nuclear arms control, etc, — stems from there. Things like the Ukraine and Georgia (as insisted upon by Sergey Ryabkov in his press conference) not joining Nato, whether de jure or de facto, are but small pieces of the supporting structure leading to RF homeland security.
As long as there is movement on that score, ie RF strategic security, there is hope — hope of peace, hope for Europe not ending up as a smouldering rubble; hope for the rest of the globe not suffering from the after-effects of a military conflagaration in Europe.
It is pretty plain that there are now three great powers in the world — even the military bigwigs in the West concede that fact — and although all the talk is about RF-US, the third power, China, I believe, is high up in the calculus of the US, at least among those who are still compos mentis, in its deliberations about the RF ultimatum. Save for words of support, PRC is rather mute; and rightly so, since it is its ally RF’s show — I believe there is a rough understanding of the ‘spheres of influence’ between them — and the Olympics are around the corner but no one doubts that if it wants to, PRC can cause the US problems while the talks are taking place in Europe. But the bigger question is, which of its two real adversaries does the US think is the bigger threat? If the US thinks it is China (my guess), then we can expect US (quiet) acceptance of RF’s demands (strategic security). Will this concession encourage PRC to be even more assertive vis-a-vis its relations with the US? Maybe but then again a European war will not improve the US’s position re PRC.
Meetings with Nato and particularly OSCE, although dismissed as somewhat moot by many, serve a useful purpose of making explicit RF’s concerns about European security directly to Europeans who really will be on the sharp end of the stick should things not work out to RF’s satisfaction. I am hoping that by the end of the week, many Europeans will come out of the woodwork and whisper some words of wise advice in their Master’s ear that perhaps it is not such a bad idea to capitulate (quietly of course).
Then the world can breathe easy.
With great respect – how can NATO enlargement be secondary to (emanate from) Russian security? There can be no security until all the points you mention (limitation of Nato expansion, withdrawal of missiles, dismantling of bases, nuclear arms control) is absolutely crucial for ensuring Russia’s security. Russian delegates stated emphatically and many times that their proposal must be accepted in toto. It follows that there can be no Russian security or a positive outcome unless the West commits itself to a wholesale reversal of its military/political apparatus – away from Russia’s borders.
Re any other meetings – they are not particularly useful but can serve to clarify minor and amplify major points.
As I said, NATO has rejected one of the pillars of Russia’s proposal without any talks.
Perhaps you misunderstand me. Let me try to put it another way:
Russia’s immediate aim is to secure its homeland from threats or potential threats. The means by which the US/Nato can threaten the RF homeland is by expanding Nato eastwards and southwards — basically the post-Soviet states — and placing its troops and missiles there. Nato can also work with states that are not Nato members as ‘partners’ to effect the same thing.
It follows that in order for Russia to remove the threat to its homeland, Russia needs to ask the US/Nato to do a few things such as limiting Nato expansion, withdrawing missiles, etc. Another is by having a buffer state (implied, Ukraine) between it and the West. Thus we can see that this whole ultimatum derives from Russia’s aim of securing its homeland.
/russias-ultimatum-to-the-west/
As I said, NATO has rejected one of the pillars of Russia’s proposal without any talks.
Sometimes we need to be wary of official posturing prior to a meeting. RF and Nato have not met yet as we speak. The real outcome could be very different — on that score it’s interesting that post-Geneva, the US intends to give a written reply to RF proposals; no statements by Jen Psaki or any other State Dept talking head. It could be the Americans are being polite but the lack of public statements by significant figures implies deep thoughts by the Americans. Indeed I’m inclined to think that there’s a fierce debate going on between the likes of Sullivan (realist) and Blinken (ga-ga).
As I said, I think the Nato and OSCE talks are useful and they are useful for another reason apart from giving the Europeans the opportunity of hearing it from the horse’s mouth; Russia can also gauge the support (or lack of) for its proposals among the Europeans.
Cheers.
It is over. Russian’ demands were met with a promise by Washington not to bring Ukraine into NATO and to not place offensive weapons near the border with Russia. Otherwise, Ryabkov would have walked out of the Geneva talks and would have canceled the upcoming Russia-NATO briefing. However, Russia insists on written guarantees and that requirement upsets the domestic politics and NATO allies. France & Germany will not risk a war in Europe on behalf of Ukraine. It is over. Germany is desperate for Russian gas and France can not risk a flood of refuges displaced from the war theatre. NATO’s eastward expansion is over. This made Blinken & Stoltenberg very angry.
My reading is completely opposite of yours. USA and NATO rejected the most important demands – NATO pullback and non-expansion. I’m not sure what is over unless you are now introducing a new legerdemain – where Russians didn’t really demand this and that… Er… no, I can’t buy that. NATO is not going back in time and retains an open door policy. Russia will never get written guarantees so that’s the end.
Nice try. Except the US State Department just said on Monday that the US won’t even discuss restricting NATO expansion.
No one agreed on anything. Ryabhov will attend the next two meetings, because as Andrei Martyanov said in his last video, quoting The Convention in the Dune novels, “The forms must be obeyed”, then Lavrov on Thursday will declare the talks a failure.
Russia should have taken out the US- Romanian missile defence system ( you know the one they say is for protection against Iranian threat ) in 2013/14 (inception ). In doing so none of this Ukrainian fiasco would have materialised.
Yes, Putin/Russia have learned their lesson the painful way for not doing so. OK, so the Romanian MDS is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard but it’s the perception of Russian weakness in doing nothing to prevent it except lodging a strong protest only at the UN that has emboldened the Satanic US Empire to blindly go where more sane minds would fear to tread. Of course Russia wasn’t as strong technically-economically-politically back then and it had just entered the Syrian War.
CIA puppet Obama gave the green light, probably Deep State had him sign something to the effect before his inauguration in 2012. Bankers Bailout Commander-In-Chief Obama (I’ll have more leeway in my 2nd Term ) smiled and Russia/Putin let her/his guard down. Let’s call it the YES WE CAN SCAM. Even days before his exit he evicted the whole Russian Consulate. Obama’s tenure proved toxic for Russian relations, mind you, he did very little for American Blacks, and underneath that toothy grin lurked a class-A self-serving cynical degenerate, a liar in chief.
Trumplethinskin’s hands were tied from Day 1, the daggers were poised from the outset. and even though he admired Putin, like Obama his tenure was about stacking Benji Bucks and paying of his Debt (I read $60 million alone to the Late Casino King (what’shisname? Big nose Guy ) who bankrolled him and kept Deutsche Bank sweet. The one thing Trump & Putin have in common was their near unconditional love for Bibi/Israel , an Achilles heal for both of them and their countries.
The shower of excrement, like Cruz & Rubio and ALL the other vested interests in LaLa Land rely on the CIA indirectly and will beat the anti-Russian drum until the cows come home or until they get a Tsirkon in the face.
I eagerly await Putin’s assessment of US bowel movement diplomacy and next up,his address to his people on how best to fight fire with fire.
With respect, Trump was as dangerous as enemy as Russia has faced in the last two centuries. His slimy show-business schtick didn’t fool any of us (and I had been happy to see him elected):
Here, I shall only focus on Trump’s actions as they concern Russia and China. In an attempt to stem the accelerating exsanguination of the American empire, Trump declared a total war on Russia and China that has thus far involved: propaganda and psychological warfare, sanctions, threats, assassinations, mass arrests of Russian and Chinese citizens, sabotage, theft of diplomatic property, bombing Russia’s allies, commandeering of commercial assets and wealth, tariffs, support for coloured revolutions, McCarthyite witch hunts, an offensive against the Russian Orthodox Church and its allies, abrogation of all important international treaties regulating the deployment and monitoring of nuclear weapons, moving nuclear-capable missile bases close to Russian border, using India, Japan, Vietnam et al. as tools against China, weaponizing fascist fiefdoms in Eastern Europe and giving the Ukrainian zhidobandera (Judaeo-banderite) regime hundreds of millions of pounds of military aid, provoking China and Russia with large-scale military exercises and all kinds of military brinkmanship, trade war, weaponizing Hindu nationalism against China, approving extra funding for anti-Russian activities, expanding NATO, boosting Israel’s right-wing regime, strangling Venezuela, Bolivia and Cuba and almost provoking a war with Iran. Oh, fresh off the press—moving 10000 soldiers and dozens of aircraft from Germany to Poland.
I think the only solution for Russia is to break with the west to 100% Cold War era mode. Economic issues are the problems for Russia which the west use in black mailing Russia, therefore I for one think if Russia stops total (100%) exportation of gas to the west she will also have serious economic problem too in the short term. Will China buy all the Russian gas and oil? Note not gas alone but oil too.
I have solution. Russians need to nuke rocket installations in Poland and Romania. After that will be different talk and N.A.T.O. will disappear. And that is the end of any nuclear war in future. Very simply believe it or not.
From what I’ve heard and seen today, it is clear that the talks have reached an end since most pillars of the Russian subtilmatum have been rejected (NATO pullback, non-extension etc.). Any nuances that Americans are trying to inject into the discussion are nothing but a feet-dragging exercise.
As far as I’m concerned, the clock is ticking for Russia to secure its security and its sphere of interest in ways that are unpleasant to her (according to Mrs Zakharova) partners. I predict that something along these lines will happen by the end of February. I am playing high stakes. If Russia slaps the West before the deadline, I’ll shut up (to the relief of many) and never comment here again. However, should I be proved correct, I’ll be back to haunt a number of optimists who are already directing those Poseidons and Avangards towards Virginia coast :-)
I pray for Russia’s victory and the liberation of all Slavs from the yoke of the German-American axis.
This is my first comment here ever on a site I so enjoy.To my mind, all that is happening is a charade for the USA to extricate themseves from Europe and this, in my view, was all planned since November by the visit of CIA director Burns, to Moscow where he once served as Ambassador. It could be an elaborate ruse and everything may well be resolved without resort to arms.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-director-meets-in-moscow-with-top-russian-official-amid-heightened-tensions/
Turning up the pain dial to at least an atom of the spiritual and physical pain Jesus of Nazareth suffered would do it…
Sorry, but I find your comparison kind of grotesque. Getting Jesus (for us Muslims, beloved Prophet Isa [AS]) involved in such a mundane matter is out of the question. I find your “analogy” offensive, both to Prophet Isa (AS), and to believers in Jesus/Prophet Isa (AS) of any religion.
Food for thought.
Lone Wolf
Well said. I agree. Offensive and not in the least bit clever.
Regardless, sanctions against Russia were mooted by Treasury and State BECAUSE the calculated outcome
was NEGATIVE FOR NATO/US.
Yet to be known…. how EurAsia nullifies NATO SSBNs… the most survivable of the triad, with the shortest time to target.. The minutemen missiles are EOL… may…. may not… work…
Given the NATO way of war requires air supremacy… and Real-time targeting… blinding satellites… downing recce aircraft… destroying tanker aircraft… destroying NATO bomber force… B-52s, B-1s, & B-2s… now LT 100 or so would upset their plans….
Given state of energy supplies… EU has gone from competitive in world markets …. to high cost producer…
It’s only a matter of months… before the piper comes calling…
I personally think, we will see a chess game play out…. with daring moves…. feeble counter moves… Civil unrest… big time…
INDY
@ watcher on January 11, 2022
“I have some questions that maybe people can answer over time. Essentially how united is NATO?…”
That’s relative to the target object, but when it comes to Russia, NATO presents a united front. Even quasi-NATO countries, e.g., Finland and Sweden, bark as loud as Ukronazis when Russia is the target. They see themselves as protectors of the 3B lapdogs.
“…1. I have a suspicion that the Kazakhstan nonsense may have been UK/Mossad inspired without direct involvement on USA…”
Forgot Turkey. The waves of attackers described by the Kazakh president, were members of Tablighi Jamaat, a terrorist organization linked to ISIS, AQ, and the Taliban, according to reports from Avia-net.pro.
https://avia-pro.net/news/na-kazahstan-napali-terroristy-dzhamaat-tabligi-tesno-svyazannye-s-talibanom-islamskim
UK/Mossad don’t have the links to the terrorist network Turkey has. Turkey’s hand was all over the Kazakh insurrection.
2. What is the role of Germany? Will economic interests over ride the current political position?
It doesn’t look possible now that the Green party has a sizable representation in the new government, and the foreign minister is a rabid Russophobic. It should, given they are facing a serious energy crisis. Regardless, she’s blocking certification of NS2 . Take a look at this article. Translator needed.
https://ukraina.ru/exclusive/20220110/1033039039.html
3. What is the role of France?
France and Germany form the “core” of the European Union, and they have been for long time advocating for strategic autonomy for Eurostan. They are not as Russophobic as central and eastern European countries, their policies could be vital in breaking ground in a new understanding with Russia.
4. The Nordic countries seem to have shifted heavily away from their neutrality of the cold war years. How significant is this? why has this happened? Could this change ire they revert to their previous neutrality and would this change the NATO dynamic.
See answer above. I see no hope in reverting their anti-Russia trend, they are gambling their future with NATO, or at least, keeping that option open.
5. We hear lots about the economic sanctions the NATO will impose. Just how significant are these. Obviously SWIFT is no longer much of an issue, but what about the possible freezing of assets. is this a real threat or simply a western myth that Russia is still dominated by self serving oligarchs.
Sanctions are, as we say in Texas, all hat and no cattle. Russians will survive with or without sanctions. Saker has touched upon the sanctions thingy in many occasions, reading his articles could illustrate you better than anything I can say, in all the subjects above.
Just do a search on the site. This one is a good start.
/russias-ultimatum-to-the-west/
Lone Wolf
France is taking the lead of the EU and some kind of NATO command instance (whatever that is) at the same time. Given the type of SOB Macron is, I hope he is not considering to have some French vessels play the role of sitting ducks in the Back Sea should the Ukrops have some hesitations doing it in the first place…
Russia and China should just squeeze the physical gold market until the war party, and the debt financiers, with their balls in a financial vice, drop all claims on Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.
Problem solved, let’s have lunch!
Washington says it won’t consider Russian proposal to end NATO expansion
https://www.rt.com/russia/545674-us-refuses-end-nato-expansion/
Quote:
Washington will not consider Russian proposals to legally prohibit the eastward expansion of the NATO military bloc, and has no intention of even discussing the idea, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Monday.
Well, there you go. The rest of the meetings this week will be with the lunatics in NATO and then the idiots in the EU, including Ukraine. It’s over. The talks failed, exactly as I predicted.
I understand Lavrov is planning a major press conference for Thursday. That will probably be when he declares the talks are over and Russia will now do what it planned to do if the talks failed.
Lots of learning still going on at the state dept so its most probable they will change their mind at the last second.
Dont ya just love the drama in between the learning though, the art of politics warning politics.
@ Donostiarra de Amara Viejo on January 11, 2022
“Very interesting article from Scott Ritter: what-war-with-russia-would-look-like”
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/10/what-war-with-russia-would-look-like/
Thanks for that link.
Scott Ritter can wear many hats, but on this one he put on his Marine Corps intel officer military hat to give us a granular portrayal of the Russian kinetic bear unleashed.
A couple of quotes worth to read.
“…Sherman will face off against Ryabkov in Geneva, with the fate of Europe in her hands. The sad thing is, she doesn’t see it that way. Thanks to Biden, Blinken and the host of Russophobes who populate the U.S. national security state today, Sherman thinks she is there to simply communicate the consequences of diplomatic failure to Russia. To threaten. With mere words.
What Sherman, Biden, Blinken, and the others have yet to comprehend is that Russia has already weighed the consequences and is apparently willing to accept them. And respond. With action.
One wonders if Sherman, Biden, Blinken, and the others have thought this through. Odds are, they have not, and the consequences for Europe will be dire.”
Poor old bastard Europe, they grew old and were never unable to build a respectable destiny for their people as nation-states.
Lone Wolf
Three comments re Mr. Ritter that Consortium News tried to memory hole.
1.
“Who “lost” Kazakhstan and to whom?
“Neither Russia nor China, despite the rhetoric of the USA….. “
Framing is a tool of “perception management” attempting to deny that lateral change is a constant whose variables include, but are not limited to, trajectory and velocity, which simultaneously obfuscates that which is outwith and that which is within, the frame.
Framing in nation states with sub-sets is often used to minimise the perception of whom the opponents are, and whom the framers are.
“The United States of America” are a complex net of coercive social relations not limited to, or to be conflated with, a current geo-political construct lying between Canada to the north and Mexico to the south.
Within nets principles of the more the wriggling, the more enmazement/restriction prevail.
As a consequence of these coercive social relations, increasingly their opponents are those seeking the transcendence of these coercive social relations through co-operation, most co-operation with “The United States of America” being limited to that which facilitates the complicity of “The United States of America” in their own transcendence through parallel interacting vectors.
The opponents of “The United States of America” are to be found throughout the world, not limited to “Russia” or “China” and since lateral change is a constant, the forms/modes/trajectories by/through which transcendence of coercive social relations is/will be facilitated will also be transcended co-operatively through time.
The rhetoric of “The United States of America” is based on linear quantitative hopes/nets, whilst the co-operations of their opponents are facilitated/informed by strategies to facilitate lateral qualitative transcendence.
2.
“”Ritter’s esay points out that those idiots at State and Biden DON’T get what the Russians are saying..”
Via NotEuclid January 11, 2022 at 08:37
“Through a different portal, as a professional (of experience) he (Mr. Ritter) outlines..”
“State and Biden are stumbling forward with no plan, just threats, as a consequence of hubris”.
Other professionals with experience expected this refex action, and hence delivered a notice of intent not ultimata, that they understood State, Biden and others would misrepresent as being ultimata by their residue of audience schooled in we-the-people-hold-these-truths-to-be-self-evidentness.
Mr. Ritter’s professional experience had/has in significant part been as an analyst in various matters, where as the profession experiences of those who informed/delivered a notice of intent were/are collectively of wider experience not restricted to analyses. ”
3.
” they said that was the deal between Kennedy and Kruschev. ”
Correct but perhaps they were not aware of some of the details.
“The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union”, both coercive social relations, were mutually dependent for their sustainability, although some factions in both sets of coercive social relations did not agree seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
Mr. Krushchev is remembered by design as a “Ukrainian” peasant who took his shoes off at the United Nations and banged the table.
Mr. Krushchev lived in very interesting times and continued living, unlike many of his contemporaries.
Mr. Krushchev was commisar at the Battle of Stalingrad creating and co-ordinating the local team with inputs from Stavka including Mr. Zhukov’s operational team who effectively told Mr. Stalin to “f*ck off”/pasholte after the over-extension of the Battle of Moscow, although that is not what the “official Soviet history books” report.
Mr. J. F. Kennedy had been assigned blame for the attempted invasion of Cuba known as the Bay of Pigs in emulation of the “American” practice that it wasn’t me it was my sister.
Mr. J.F. Kennedy was in an impasse in respect of “The Cuban missile”crisis, and Mr. Krushchev sent one of his team who had a significant role in the Battle of Stalingrad -blat being the most precious currency in the Soviet Union -, to propose a way out of the impasse, including ways of selling it to the “American people” whilst minimising the opportunities of some factions in both sets of coercive social relations seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
“Sovietgate” did happen but in 1962, which led to “apoplexy” of some factions in both sets of coercive social relations seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
In 1964 Mr. Krushchev was replaced by a faction based upon an alliance of Soviet Agriculture and Soviet Industry whose representatives were Mr. Kosygin and Mr. Brezhnev, whilst from 1969 onwards some understood that “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable for various reasons and initiated strategies in facilitation/preparation of the transcendence of “The Soviet Union”.
In 1963 Mr. J. F. Kennedy was assassinated and “replaced” publicly by Mr. L. B. Johnson but privately by others whose roles have increased through time by sawing the branches upon which they were sitting.
Mr. Krushchev loved jokes and the works of Mr. Gogol.
Pepe Escobar just made a very interesting post on his VK page.
It seems that America got caught with its hand in the terrorist cookie jar.
Escobar states that American spooks are “totally freaking” out because the 45th Guard of the Russian Spetsnaz brigade has discovered that it was the United States that transported some of the head-choppers and jihadists involved in the Kazakhstan insurrection from elsewhere in Central Asia (like Afghanistan and Kyrgsyztan) to Almaty.
https://vk.com/pepeasia?w=wall578617852_11764
America–the self-styled “Leader of the Free World”– is clearly demonstrating that it is only the world’s leading terrorist nation, as the USA is still running its terrorist ratlines from the Middle East (like Syria and Iraq) to Central Asia.
Well that just goes to prove just how incredibly stupid and oblivious the “spooks” are.
The Russians have repeatedly spoken about the movement within Syria | Libya | Afghanistan of jihadis by “our partners” (that stupid Russian term for what it now feels comfortable calling its “adversaries”).
The Russians have known since they were engaged in Afghanistan in the 80s that the blackop intel players employed jihadis.
And Putin is being increasingly blunt about the role of US-directed jihadis in the Chechen wars.
One day…one day….the Russians will let drop what they know about Osama bin Ladin, Saudi’s/ Israel and 9/11.
With desert being a intel drop on JFK. (Why was Lone Gunman LHO phoning Moscow from Mexico in 1962.?) surely there’s something on KGB files file from this piece of peculiar narrative.
” they said that was the deal between Kennedy and Kruschev. ”
Correct but perhaps they were not aware of some of the details.
“The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union”, both coercive social relations, were mutually dependent for their sustainability, although some factions in both sets of coercive social relations did not agree seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
Mr. Krushchev is remembered by design as a “Ukrainian” peasant who took his shoes off at the United Nations and banged the table.
Mr. Krushchev lived in very interesting times and continued living, unlike many of his contemporaries.
Mr. Krushchev was commisar at the Battle of Stalingrad creating and co-ordinating the local team with inputs from Stavka including Mr. Zhukov’s operational team who effectively told Mr. Stalin to “f*ck off”/pasholte after the over-extension of the Battle of Moscow, although that is not what the “official Soviet history books” report.
Mr. J. F. Kennedy had been assigned blame for the attempted invasion of Cuba known as the Bay of Pigs in emulation of the “American” practice that it wasn’t me it was my sister.
Mr. J.F. Kennedy was in an impasse in respect of “The Cuban missile”crisis, and Mr. Krushchev sent one of his team who had a significant role in the Battle of Stalingrad -blat being the most precious currency in the Soviet Union -, to propose a way out of the impasse, including ways of selling it to the “American people” whilst minimising the opportunities of some factions in both sets of coercive social relations seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
“Sovietgate” did happen but in 1962, which led to “apoplexy” of some factions in both sets of coercive social relations seeing “their worlds” through prisms of “exceptionalism/manifest destiny”.
In 1964 Mr. Krushchev was replaced by a faction based upon an alliance of Soviet Agriculture and Soviet Industry whose representatives were Mr. Kosygin and Mr. Brezhnev, whilst from 1969 onwards some understood that “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable for various reasons and initiated strategies in facilitation/preparation of the transcendence of “The Soviet Union”.
In 1963 Mr. J. F. Kennedy was assassinated and “replaced” publicly by Mr. L. B. Johnson but privately by others whose roles have increased through time by sawing the branches upon which they were sitting.
Mr. Krushchev loved jokes and the works of Mr. Gogol.
The pain that Russia can inflict is multi dimension asymetrical, militarily and economically as well as political, diplomacy. It is already occurring.
Look at the embarrasment USA has put it self in regarding Nato,EU relations.
Kazakstan. Now Syria and Iraq the push backs taking place there. Africa the shambles occurring within those African nations that are accepting China rather than the arm twisting USA diplomacy.
South America. The deteriorating influence of the USA there.
Russia supplying the heavy sour crude USA needs in order to frak its highly sweet oil. Which its refineries cannot do without. Ergo. No heavy oil no refining big economic bang. Russia can quite easily tell USA if it wants to continue trading then it is in ruble not promisory notes or dollar. The dollar is already losing its reserve currency ranking. Inflation is already hurting. Which means its interest payments for its massive debt. Will begin to bite. The threat of Russias new weapons systems is causing USA heartburn. This will only escalate as they come online. All this and more. Nord Stream 2. Well Russia does not need it.
Ukraine they do not care. India is on the fence, countries like Indonesia, myanmar, thailand, laos, cambodia.and other small asian countries doubt or mistrust now the capacity for USA to fulfill its promise.
Herein is the rub, countries now see the USA as a paper tiger. Agreement non capable. That for any beurocrat or politician worth his salt means that they have been emasculated. Russia and China are not in to ko the USA but for it to be so battered that it throws in the towel.
An embarressment to its own people. Sad.
And just as I predicted, Russian training maneuvers continue in the training bases from which the other 10,000 troops were removed before Russian Christmas. And as predicted, the media treats these as “more pressure from Russia”, instead of what they actually are – normal training rotations (possibly accelerated as Russia still expects war with Ukraine.)
Russia holds tank drills near Ukraine, putting on pressure as talks ‘drag’
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3163018/russia-holds-tank-drills-near-ukraine-sounds?utm_source=rss_feed
@ Thomas on January 11, 2022
“you misunderstand the ambiguous NYT article. I believe that the media have been given the order to slowly change course.”
@ John on January 11, 2022
“Hello Thomas,
I agree with you. I searched the Washington Post, Bloomberg and Reuters earlier this morning and there was not one peep about yesterday´s meeting. Something happened.”
Thomas and John responded to my first post, in which I quoted a Russian article from RI Novosti reporting on a NYT article stating, “the negotiations were a kind of victory for the Kremlin.” The former stated “you misunderstand (sic) the ambigous NYT article. I believe that the media have been given the order to slowly change course.”
Really? Where is the evidence? “I believe” doesn’t count as evidence of any kind.
Then comes Thomas supporting John, stating “I agree with you. I searched the Washington Post, Bloomberg and Reuters and there was not one peep about yesterday’s meeting. Something happened.”
Really? Whatever “happened” remains a mistery, what didn’t happen is, he didn’t search in the NYT.
The quote is all over the place, in Russian media and otherwise.
Here is one from the Teller Report,
https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-01-11-nyt–negotiations-in-geneva-were-a-kind-of-victory-for-russia.ryrJyRMjhY.html
with a link that refers to the source, russiart,
https://russian.rt.com/world/news/947902-nyt-peregovory-zheneva
who has a link to the original NYT article headlined,
“In Talks on Ukraine, U.S. and Russia Deadlock Over NATO Expansion”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/world/europe/russia-us-ukraine-talks.html
Talk is cheap. If you cannot substantiate your statements, watch your fingers.
Lone Wolf
Andrei.
The pain dial is being turned up by Russia in a little known place called Mali.
Russia can choose to fight NATO in Wurope or destroy France (and by extension drag down the EU and NATO) in Africa.
France exists as a developed country due to her continued colonizationnof fourteen African countries and Russia is throwing a wrench into that. Watch events unfold in Mali where Russia is backing the young Colonel Assimi Goita in his attempts to free his country from France. I could write a long paper about these events but these and the events of the Central African Republic are key to interpreting some of the events currently going on in Europe.
And add French New Caledonia just off the Australian east coast. Not happy locals tired of being a Department of France (with mineral resoirces etc). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Caledonia
But that may be more a Chinese backyard — certainly the Solomon islands are in the process of declawing the ‘Union Jack’ pretending to be post-colonial Australia although there is some tension between Taipei rather than Beijing aliances. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomon_Islands
The Turtle Islands should be given back to its original owners and let them decide who should stay and who shouldn’t.
The historical and amazingly new thing is that the Russian deputy FM at times spoke as menacingly as sanctioners do but in terms of military power. We can hear and see it in his press conference(s). He said that both the U.S. and the continent of Europe would see their security affected (he used another term) if the negotiations did not happen as Russia wished or expected them to be. If this result was the plan behind sending warships to the Black sea, it succeeded (sad irony). Anyway, this has been the result. Let them not say, “Who could have imagined?” or anything like that. My body cringed every time another warship went over there. Turns out it was truly a dumb thing to do (unless they were looking for their two ‘proposals’). Pardon me but this cannot be what it’s about.
I suspect that if Russia implements its military option, we won’t recognize the world we see.it would have to be a complete revolution in the power landscape for the risk taken and effort expended.and if it’s successful, I would expect to see the US standing alone,bereft of Allie’s and satrapies. Truly threatened and with a gun to its head. Ok, maybe Canada, France and the uk still standing. Woohoo! But anything else is half measures, and at this stage in the game, half measures will leave Russia in more or less in the same position. No, it must be a revolution.
Breaking the Game.
As the seesaw tips in favor of the East, the US needs to look East in order that it not go south. The issues of both the Ukraine and Taiwan have come to the forefront of its agenda during the last few years, Washington needing to not only command more countries in those regions but ensure the East commands less. Russia has drawn its red lines whilst Beijing has made its points clear, yet the only way the US is able to continue its politics is through pigheadedness, threats and a lack of diplomacy. This can only go so far without there being serious consequences, yet this is where DC can come really unstuck. In contrast to every conflict over the last century, if the White House does push too hard, Russia and China can push back. More importantly, they can do so through attacking the US on its own territory. This in itself would not be remarkable but for the fact that this just does not figure in the mindset of the average American. The last 100 years has seen war over much of the globe, Europeans knowing all too well the destruction that war brings. Other than Pearl Harbor, (which was actually not part of the US until 1959) the US has never really been hit on home turf, and the shock to the public could be as devastating on the public psyche as damage done in an attack.
https://gpovanman.wordpress.com/2022/01/11/an-isolated-ivory-tower/
What is it that the Governments of Hungary and Serbia have that the rest of the countries in the western European sphere don’t? Answer – Long term energy security contracts, fundamental to their economic growth/planning. These 2 governments are acting in the best interests of their citizens., making it possible for the next wave of youth to make their mark in life.
By contrast, should German citizens not be questioning Annalisa Baerbock’s motives/stance which directly impacts German productivity/growth?
On top of the pandemic the peoples of the world are suffering, these I’m all right Jack blinkered Russophobic politicians are making life doubly difficult by hanging onto the coattails of the satanic Empire, despite that Empire hurtling toward obscurity, having created a toxic economic, social and environmental catastrophe.
Here in the UK, people are dying due to lack of Healthcare resources, ambulances, beds, exhausted doctor/nursing staff. What will it look like in these hospitals when the Electricity is also cut? With everybody’s happy go lucky party clown, Boris, at the wheel, we’re gonna party like it’s 1799.
Now I hear at news hat Sweden and Finland are considering to join NATO.
Strategic missiles capable of threatening major Russian cities will be even closer.
That would be really stupid of Sweden. I read a long time ago that back in the 50s, Sweden had a nuclear weapons program. Russia informed Sweden that if they continued that, Russia would be forced to add them to their nuclear targeting list. Sweden wisely decided to get out of the nuclear weapons game.
Joining NATO now would mean they’ve forgotten that lesson.
Military technical, military and/or technical ?, not sure what this means, and is perhaps deliberately vague.
Pepe Escobar’s reveal that Russian Spetznaz have the goods on USA spooks transporting terrorists to Kaz. could and should be made public, along with war crimes committed since ‘14 by Ukies. I read many months ago that info on that subject was being collated. While they’re at it, outline details of war crimes by the usual suspects in the ME, Afghanistan, S Am., Africa, hell everywhere, could be made public, with the intention of future prosecution. Remember, Russia and allies are talking to zone B.
I stick by my comment on a previous blog, that Russia should be pro-active and not re-active re swift and payment in Rubles for energy and foodstuffs. The prob there may be how importers would get hold of sufficient Rubles without purchase with unwanted fiat. Barter? Announce essential maintenance on NS1 !
Someone above mentioned shutting down airspace over Russia. I believe this could be done selectively. UK US and some EU. For security as well as the more obvious economic reasons.
All the above without firing a single bullet. I’m no economist, but I’m sure there’s more ways. Russia has the worlds largest economy at their back. Use them, why not ?
China/Russia could announce a price rise on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, create an arbitrage opportunity to buy further gold and further pressure the dollar and PM derivative/paper markets.
I don’t feel at all qualified to comment on what could be done militarily, I’ll leave that to others here in the Saker Family, of which I am proud to be a tiny cog.
I’m no expert, but 1 or 2 points
The timing – is a possible re-election gift from Vlad to Joe, one that Joe simply can’t refuse in his current predicament. If Nato, is as they claim “an organization who’s goal it is to preserve the peace” (Laughable I know), then it seems that Vlad has made them an offer they can’t refuse, Why a re-election gift? Because aside from the lunatics in power & Think Tank Land etc, the average American will see a security guarantee with a rival power that can destroy them as a good thing. Call it, bringing security to one of their major insecurities. The average American will like that & joe needs a win. However, it’s a big if – as to whether old Joe could deliver. To me, it seems, an offer to good or in fact impossible to refuse, Sure some smoke & mirrors – but the alternative is way too risky on all levels, including the overwhelming natural instinct of self-preservation, politically, ideologically & mortally, the latter brings me to another point of huge significant (Where our ex-military service folks on the board could chime in). Would US or Nato service members actually obey orders to engage in conflict/combat with the Russian Federation, regardless of the circumstance or particularly over Ukraine? I have my doubts. I believe the first RF salvo would change everything, particularly any desire to fight – if it doesn’t & there’s a response, then the response to the response will certainly bring clarity to thought.
No – Old Joe, whatever way they dress it up will have to take the deal, not that I think their rationale people, I think because there is nothing to gain & everything to lose from not taking the deal, I think it’s a matter of simple risk mitigation. As the old saying goes – some things, you just can’t risk. Of course, I could be wrong. There are 3 certainties in life taxes, death & that nuclear war will kill everyone. We’ll hear from the American Military leaders at some stage this week, if they’re receiving the same news as us, for sure they are highly alarmed now too.
For sure Paddy, there are many angles and nuances to be considered. I wouldn’t want to be VVP at the moment, but I’m sure his guys have ‘game played’ all the possibilities and are ready if a response is necessary. My hopes and prayers, for what they’re worth, are with the Russia China Iran et al axis.
I would love to see some relief come to the people’s of Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Venezuela, …….. the list goes on. Cessation of embargoes should be a condition too.
I fear gifting anything to Biden and his cohorts may be viewed as weakness, but I do get your points. Regards
Yes for sure there are many angles and nuances to be considered. If the Collective West believes as some do, that the RF is bluffing, others will rationalize – what exactly a bluff is or why & when you should or shouldn’t bluff. This isn’t 2 guys playing poker, where the hand of either is unknown. In the case of RF, Hypersonic & Anit-Sat missiles, very advanced air & sea AAD capabilities along with very advanced & even unknown electric warfare capabilities, etc, are well accepted – calling the bluff in this case exponentially exceeds the value of the originally perceived bluff. In simple terms, if you call the bluff, the chances & pressures for the bluff remaining a bluff, greatly decrease. I believe this is a calculated policy by the RF. If you know the guy has a royal flush, it’s pointless to pay a huge sum just to see the cards on their backs. Again I could be wrong, but I feel it’s more likely that the Collective West would turn on each other, particularly in the US, before they would respond to RF, if a salvo gets fired against Nato. Any Nato serviceman on the front line if the shooting starts would fully understand that he will most likely die, far different from many of NATO’s previous adventures where servicemen concluded they would most likely survive due to capabilities against weaker opponents. You would have mass desertion. I further have my doubts about how a bureaucracy like NATO could even respond to such an emergency without collapsing in disarray, doubt they could even coordinate a consensus statement within a week by which stage all would be over. Governance is sub out in the EU, to private companies & advisors, actual elected politician don’t decide or do anything – this process takes a lot of time to get decisions made.
Orthodox Christian Russia is not afraid of death, whereas the USA has forgotten Gods Laws.
Certainly most Americans do not want war but, they (we) are a population addicted to fantasies and thus will believe almost anything they are told. If they are told that the Russians are seeking to conquer the world they will favor war because even though they suspect they are being manipulated they will still believe the propaganda organs blasting 24/7 despite some alternative media that have different narratives. Alienation is the reality for most people here thus it is easy to enlist the population in a grand crusade to meet the need for community and connection with others.
Unless Biden can spin any agreement with Russia as a “victory” he will be brutally assailed by the Republicans and his party will lose even more seats than they are bound to lose this year. If, however, he opts to force Russia to act he can be the hero standing up for “democracy” by increasing the numbers of weapons and troops in Europe, imposing the usual sanctions, and rallying all the vassal states to support the Empire unconditionally which he can do since the intel community controls European media and most politicians.
The Saker community here always underestimates the power of the Washington regime (which I consider illegitimate and illegal since the coup of ’63). It’s forgotten here that that regime is the center of a vast network of interlocking directorates dominated by international oligarchs, criminals, covert operatives, and so on who have almost unlimited funds to cause havoc in almost any country in the world and that power has, if anything, increased despite the increasingly irrelevant and corrupt US military. Real power is conducted by covert armies of operatives and terrorists plus information warfare. Russia can and should stand up to this and create some space for her to operate in but, frankly, history favors the Empire in the short and medium term. Russia, China, Iran and some other countries need to work for the long-term and understand they are in for a long-term war where ANY technique or approach could be used against them as armies of operatives work around the clock to harm them.
Excellent Chris – bang-on
Chris Cosmos: I should have read your comment before posting mine, as we share the same viewpoint but your comment is much better and much more thoroughly articulated. Respect!
“Because aside from the lunatics in power & Think Tank Land etc, the average American will see a security guarantee with a rival power that can destroy them as a good thing.”
Respectfully disagree. The Republicans would immediately brand it a surrender to Russia, and the Democrats, who have made Russia hatred a fundamental–if not *the* fundamental–aspect of their identity, would hardly be in a position to do a 180 on their article of faith that Russia is an Absolute Evil.
In short, neither Biden nor “Biden” would dare risk any kind of agreement with Russia that could not be passed off as Russia’s unconditional surrender.
Perhaps! Whereas, I fear & conceed you could well be right, for Dems or Reps – there has never been any consequences for their actions. None of note that I can recall, now faced with a power who doesn’t fear them, (well! fears their stupidity – I guess) who is also a peer superpower in most factors, particularly militarily- they really don’t know how to act or respond. What they want or what they can actually have is 2 entirely different things, I do beleive they may well push things to H-hour – but in the end, I think self-preservation is a powerful instinct. Beside, Dems & Reps are the 2 sides of the same coin, not actually politicians but bagmen & lobbyists working for everybody except the voters. The Dem media machine will spin any humiliating climb down as a victory. I just think Joe has an opportunity here – if he is actually cognitive or in-charge that is. These people are indoctrinated & institutionalised to a falsely concepted reality of their own exceptionalism – it will just take them awhile to realise or accept their understandings were misguided. But I’m sure they will come around – worst case – with some minor hypersonic persuasion.
Jewish Interests: 90% of corporations, Big Pharma, indeed;100% of the western banks, Central Ones, surely; almost all the Western Media, Hollywood included; gatekeeping vigilantes in every field of the Academia; let alone the “representative” bodies, the democratic window dressings, all bought & sold according to “chosenite” desiderata. There we have the effective owners of the West. And they need some conflagration in order to preserve a sort of exchange value to their counterfeit money, the US Dollar, the Euro, the UK Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Brazilian Real & the rest of the vassal currencies of their sphere. Thus, they will do anything & everything, short of a military move on their part, to incite Russia to bellicose action.
100% true my dear nietzche1510. The truth fears no questions
Years ago I saw a book called “Are Russians Really 9 feet tall?”
During the Yeltsin years some wise commentator said “Russia is never as weak as it appears or as strong as it appears.
I am not a military analyst and cannot comment on the relative strength of various armed forces, but I don’t believe Russians are 9 feet tall.
@ Michael Thomas on January 12, 2022
“Years ago I saw a book called “Are Russians Really 9 feet tall?”
During the Yeltsin years some wise commentator said “Russia is never as weak as it appears or as strong as it appears.
I am not a military analyst and cannot comment on the relative strength of various armed forces, but I don’t believe Russians are 9 feet tall.”
—————————————
Superb “analysis.” How else can you “enlighten” us here from your “deep wisdom” about Russians? If they are 9 ft tall, they should be well-hung too, did the book said anything about that? It makes you wonder, do this trolls ever read Saker’s article before they comment and show their peabrain for everyone to see?
Waste of time and bandwidth.
Lone Wolf
Maybe Russians are perceived as 9′ tall to the weak, because they possess potential spiritual super-power and lesser in height, in relation to the possible vulnerable nature this height bestows? It could perhaps be, such things are not necessarily immediately to be recognized in the heat of a raging battles… just a thought.
Pax
My point is that there is too much jingoism in the world today, including on this site.
“We don’t want to fight but by Jingo if we do
We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men, we’ve got the money too”
All the Empires of Europe rushed headlong into WW1 believing their own invincibility. Only one of those Empires survived, and it only a shadow of its former self.
Andrei,
You say that you believe that “Clearly, the War Party in the USA is, at least so far, prevailing”. I think that you are missing what is actually going on. Russia is laying the clear entirely justified grounds for whatever they choose to do next. The West, with the US at the head is going through the five stages of grief. They are right now moving from denial to anger. That is why you see all the bizarre statements coming out of US and other western officials and media. They know that they have basically no cards to play. Russia will laugh off sanctions and has escalatory dominance in Europe. Russia doesn’t need to nor does it want to invade Ukraine, as you have amply stated, it is a basket case. As the next steps it doesn’t have to invade Ukraine. I would hypothesise that deploying hypersonic missiles along its border and via submarine drones in the Atlantic and Pacific pointing at the NATO partners including the US is a far better way to focus the minds of western leaders to pass to the next stage of the five stages of grief, meaning bargaining.
Let’s see if Russia is really not bluffing; that is clearly what US thinks as Russians have always been on defensive. If so, it would cost Putin his chair as the threats were made publicly and repeatedly. I believe deployment of Russian weapon systems on US shores would not cut it, they must destroy overly NATO installations in Ukraine, Poland, and Romania to show they really mean it, not at the same time perhaps, but eventually and all of them
From Germany:
Persons observed a full train loaded with tanks painted desert-camo rolling eastwards (Wiesbaden-Frankfurt railroad).
From Nachdenkseiten.de
————
Sorry, actually two trains. Direct link here:
https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=79688
this is the only articles i can find in Norwegian news atm. https://archive.is/QgfGw https://archive.is/Q8Fqu
(archived so you dont need a vpn to read)
Why is there so little noise in the newspapers about these meetings??
Normally they would scream Putin is bad M`kay, it does not make sense.
What is happening?
I am reading some sources right now saying NATO just rejected Russia’s proposals completely. No end to expansion and missile system deployments will continue. They are ready for war. It’s what they are saying.
Pathological liars may say one thing and do another. They have no choice but to retreat and fold.
No, they don’t. They can be stupid and get killed. Happens every day.
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grushko:
– The principle of indivisibility of security must take into account the interests of all. Attempts to build security against Russia without Russian participation are counterproductive and doomed to failure. We will not let this be done.
If NATO switches to a policy of containment, it will be a policy of counter-deterrence on our part.
If there is deterrence, then there will be counter-intimidation, if there is a search for vulnerabilities in the defense system of the Russian Federation, then there will be a search for such vulnerabilities towards NATO.
This is not our choice, but there will be no other way if we fail to reverse today’s, I emphasize once again, a very dangerous course of events.
I tend to disagree – what you suggest, kemerd, is the most obvious, thus the most anticipated reaction from Russia.
I’m joining JayTe here.
However some wouldn’t mind the Russians destroying Bondsteel and Ramstein with the first strike.
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grushko: – “The West considers the territory of the Russian Federation as an object for targeting its strike weapons. “Of course, we cannot agree with this and will take all necessary measures to ensure that the threat is parried by military means, if diplomatic means fail. Nothing else is given.”
https://tass.ru/politika/13409641
BRUSSELS, January 12. / TASS /.
Press conference following the meeting
Head of the delegation of the Russian Federation in Brussels, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Grushko at a press conference following the meeting of the Russia-NATO Council:
“The process of NATO expansion carries unacceptable risks that Moscow will counter.
The second factor that seriously affects the deterioration of security in Europe is the process of expanding the alliance. Let me remind you that in 1997 only one country, which has a common border with the Russian Federation, knocked on the door of NATO, and that was Poland. Today, many states have joined NATO, and their territories are obviously being used to project force in the direction of Russia from various geographical directions and to strategic depths.
It also seriously impairs our security and poses unacceptable risks to it, which we will counter.
Russia honestly, directly and “without politically correct formulas” pointed out to NATO during the talks the possible consequences for European security in the event of further deterioration of the situation.
We have pointed out to [NATO] very honestly, bluntly, without trying to work around corners, using any politically correct formulas, that a further slide of the situation could lead to the most unpredictable and most difficult consequences for European security.”
The degradation of European security
“The meeting of the Council of Russia and NATO was devoted to the analysis of all the factors influencing the degradation of European security observed in recent years.
Today’s meeting was devoted precisely to the analysis of all the factors that influence the degradation of European security, which we have observed in recent years.
Moscow presented its analysis of such factors in Brussels. At this meeting, which was actually made possible thanks to this very Russian initiative, and we are grateful to [NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg] for coming up with the idea of holding the Council, the Russian delegation gave our analysis of the factors influencing to the deterioration of this security landscape, which affects the security interests of all states, and for us, of course, the security interests of the Russian Federation are primarily important.
There is no common positive agenda between the parties that existed before – this can be explained by the “pivot to the old NATO”, which is aimed at containing the Russian Federation.
The positive agenda that we had: the fight against terrorism, the promotion of the joint security forces in Afghanistan, the fight against drugs, the training of Afghan personnel, the fight against piracy and much more – all this is a thing of the past, and we understand why this was done, because such cooperation does not fit into this new turn towards the old NATO.
Russia’s proposals to the West can radically change this situation and make it possible to rebuild European security “on general principles.” This will not only improve the state of the military security of the Russian Federation, which is an absolutely fundamental factor for us, but will also obviously improve the security of the NATO countries themselves.”
Containment of Russia
“NATO puts the task of containing Russia at the forefront of its policy and military building, and huge resources are allocated for this.
At the forefront of NATO policy and military development are the tasks of containing Russia. Enormous resources are allocated for this. It is not hidden that this is the main purpose of the alliance. And this fact in itself has a destructive effect on any attempts to build pan-European security on other principles.
Russia considers NATO’s attempts to build a security architecture without Moscow’s participation counterproductive and will not allow it to be done.
We firmly believe that the principle of the indivisibility of security must take into account the interests of all, that attempts to “build security” against Russia or without Russia’s participation are counterproductive and doomed to failure. We will not let this be done.
NATO’s attempts to pursue a policy of containment against the Russian Federation will be met with counter-containment measures from Moscow.
If NATO switches to a policy of deterrence, then it will be a policy of counter-deterrence on our part, if it is deterrence, it will be counter-intimidation, if it is a search for some vulnerabilities in the defense system of the Russian Federation, then it will be a search for vulnerabilities NATO.
This is not our choice, but there will be no other way if we fail to reverse the current very dangerous course of events.”
Security Interests
“The Russian Federation, at a meeting with NATO, outlined what countermeasures it would take if it felt a threat to its security.
Russia has designated [countermeasures]. We have the full range of legitimate military-technical measures that we will use when we defend ourselves against a real security threat. And we already feel it.
The West considers the territory of the Russian Federation as an object for targeting its strike weapons. Of course, we cannot agree with this and will take all necessary measures to ensure that the threat is countered in
…
https://tass.ru/politika/13409641
The die off of Rockefeller, e.g., Kissinger, et al, NATO plan is not going to end. The dead walking have nothing in reality to lose!! Russia knows the action necessary … a divine calling so to speak.
The RAND Corporation has devised a plan to over-deploy Russian armed forces and thus weaken the country.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article215271.html
The US prefers no agreement. They are addicted to sanctions. American foreign policy has always been to divide. Koreas, Palestine, China, The Soviet Union and even America. Now they will try and force the world to choose between the resistance axis and the poodles
Will citizens of the U$ ever tire of war, brought on by idiots who never have to fight in them,
nor do their children and/or grandchildren? Any one in the house of Uncle $hmuel who wants war with Russia or China; let them be the first ones killed.
http://www.mid.ru/tv/?id=1794264&lang=ru http://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-01-13/419378-eksklyuzivnoe_intervyu_glavy_mid_sergeya_lavrova_smotrite_v_programme_bolshaya_igra
Интервью Министра иностранных дел Российской Федерации С.В.Лаврова программе «Большая игра» на «Первом канале», Москва, 13 января 2022 года:
В.А.Никонов: Мы не в привычной студии в «Останкино», а в историческом Особняке МИД России на улице Спиридоновка. Здесь подписывался Договор о запрещении испытаний ядерного оружия в атмосфере, космическом пространстве и под водой, в 1996 г. прошел первый саммит «Большой восьмерки».
Обсуждаем проблемы совершенно неожиданно начавшегося 2022 года. Все ожидали, что он начнется стремительно, но чтобы так – не ожидал никто. В центре этих событий человек, являющийся одним из наиболее влиятельных политиков, дипломатов в нашей стране и в мире С.В.Лавров. Д.Саймс с нами на связи из Вашингтона.
Сейчас все взгляды были прикованы к переговорам, которые вели Ваши заместители в Женеве, Брюсселе, сегодня в Вене, по вопросам европейской безопасности. Судя по всему, пока императивность российских предложений, выраженных в проектах договора о безопасности с США и соглашения со странами НАТО, не «дошла» до западных партнеров. Они не привыкли разговаривать на равных, не на своих условиях. По тому, как прошли переговоры, как их можно охарактеризовать? Как успех или провал? Они идут лучше, хуже или примерно так, как Вы ожидали? Что будет дальше?
С.В.Лавров: В этом Особняке состоялось еще одно знаменательное событие для мировой истории. Осенью 1943 г. министры иностранных дел СССР, Великобритании и США подписали декларацию, в которой впервые после победы над фашизмом упомянута необходимость создать всемирную организацию. Тогда еще не было термина «ООН». Это символично. Сегодня мы обсуждаем ситуацию, во многом вызванную тем, что Запад пытается подвергнуть сомнению универсальную легитимность ООН, вместо международного права изобретает свои «правила», по которым все остальные должны жить.
Переговоры отражают серьезное противостояние на мировой арене: попытку Запада утвердить доминирование, беспрекословно добиваться всего, что ему кажется необходимым для продвижения своих интересов. Это в полной мере выразилось в ходе переговоров. Могу подтвердить, что они были деловыми. Достаточно жесткая, где-то аррогантная, неуступчивая, бескомпромиссная позиция Запада излагалась в общем спокойно, в деловом ключе. Это позволяет рассчитывать на перспективу осмысления состоявшихся переговоров в Вашингтоне.
Не менее твердо излагали позицию России. У нас были аргументы, которых у Запада нет. Они касались принципа неделимости безопасности. США и их коллеги по Североатлантическому альянсу в ходе переговоров ссылались на то, что наше главное требование об обеспечении юридических гарантий нерасширения НАТО на Восток не может быть выполнено. Дескать, в НАТО есть порядок: только сами страны-члены решают, кого принимать, а кого нет, если поступает обращение. Но мы настойчиво возвращали их не к натовским порядкам, а к договоренностям, выработанным в рамках всего Евроатлантического сообщества и в рамках ОБСЕ. Они, действительно, расшифровывают неделимость безопасности как свободу каждой страны выбирать себе союзников. В этом же предложении без всяких точек и запятых говорится: при понимании, что государства-участники в этом контексте «не будут укреплять свою безопасность за счет безопасности других государств». Ни одна страна или союз стран не имеют права претендовать на доминирующие позиции в Евроатлантическом регионе. Всё это было согласовано в пакете, окончательно подтверждено в 1999 г. в Стамбуле на саммите ОБСЕ с принятием Хартии европейской безопасности. Запад берет только то, что ему выгодно. Мы исходим из того, что свобода выбора союзов – неотъемлемая часть недопустимости шагов, которые будут подрывать безопасность России и любого другого государства.
В.А.Никонов: Все-таки: как ожидали, лучше или хуже?
С.В.Лавров: Как ожидали. Думаю, мы достаточно хорошо знаем американских переговорщиков. Много раз с ними встречались по разным поводам, в том числе переговоры по иранской ядерной программе, Договору СНВ-3. Примерно понимали, какой будет разговор. Для нас было принципиально важно выполнить прямое поручение Президента России В.В.Путина. Он сказал, что мы обязаны самым жестким образом поставить эти вопросы, касающиеся всей архитектуры европейской безопасности. Там не только одностороннее требование России не трогать её и не делать ничего, что у нас вызывает недовольство, но и принципы, нацеленные на обеспечение безопасности всех и каждого без ущемлений чьих-то интересов и без нанесения ущерба безопасности кого бы то ни было.
Д.Саймс: Вы не ожидали и не могли ожидать, что США и НАТО согласятся вести переговоры о запрещении присоединения к НАТО стран Восточной Европы, в первую очередь, Украины и Грузии. Вы справедливо сказали, что результат был предсказуем. В ходе разговора с представителями Администрации и Конгресса в Вашингтоне приходит понимание того, что не предсказуема реакция России. Было предложено дальше вести переговоры по вопросам ракет средней дальности (по крайней мере, так говорят в Государственном департаменте и Белом доме), о возможном ограничении военных маневров, об их лучшей осведомленности о проведении военных маневров. По поводу расширения НАТО, продвижения ее инфраструктуры в Восточную Европу, как я понимаю, России было сказано решительное «нет». Все интересуются, каким будет ответ России. Продолжение переговоров, уход или другие действия, например, военно-технического или военного характера.
С.В.Лавров: Позиция, определенная Президентом России В.В.Путиным, заключается в юридических гарантиях нерасширения НАТО на Восток, в юридических гарантиях неразвертывания на соседних с нами территориях ударных вооружений, представляющих угрозу для безопасности России, и в принципиальном плане возвращение конфигурации архитектуры европейской безопасности к 1997 г., когда был подписан Основополагающий акт Россия-НАТО. На его основе впоследствии был создан Совет Россия-НАТО. Это три ключевых требования. Остальные предложения зависят от того, как пойдет разговор по этим трем инициативам.
Натовцы и американцы, действительно, категорически отвергают наше право добиваться нерасширения НАТО. Я уже привел аргументы, показывающие, что наши позиции зиждутся не на натовских документах (мы не имеем к ним никакого отношения, как и они к нам), а на документах, принятых на высшем уровне в ОБСЕ, включая Стамбульский саммит 1999 г., где свобода выбора союзов прямо обусловлена необходимостью обеспечивать неделимость безопасности, чтобы никто не предпринимал мер в своих интересах в ущерб безопасности любого другого государства.
Если говорим об ОБСЕ, то в 1975 г. бывший Президент США Дж.Форд, когда был подписан Хельсинкский заключительный акт, сказал следующее: «История будет судить об этом Совещании не по тому, что мы здесь сегодня говорим, а по тому, что мы сделаем завтра, не по обещаниям, которые мы даем, а по обещаниям, которые мы выполняем». Насчет нерасширения НАТО нам давали такие обещания. Бывший Госсекретарь США Дж.Бейкер в феврале 1990 г. говорил Генеральному секретарю ЦК КПСС М.С.Горбачеву, что военная юрисдикция НАТО ни на дюйм не продвинется восточнее Одера. Впоследствии бывший Премьер-министр Великобритании Дж.Мейджор разговаривал с тогдашним Министром обороны СССР Д.Т.Язовым. На прямой вопрос Д.Т.Язова, можно ли нам опасаться позитивной реакции на тогдашние требования Польши и Венгрии присоединиться к НАТО, Дж.Мейджор заверил, что никаких планов на этот счет нет, и это не обсуждается.
Для тех, кто говорит, что никто никому ничего не обещал, это всё было описано в мемуарах посла Великобритании в России на рубеже 1990-х гг. Р.Брейтвейта. Они вышли в 2002 г. Удивительно, что к ним никто не обращался. Там написано, что это всё происходило, давались обещания М.С.Горбачеву и другим нашим руководителям людьми, которые были в спешке и в основном сконцентрированы на решении других более срочных задач. Давая такие обещания, они якобы не имели в виду ввести кого-то в заблуждение. Потрясающее английское объяснение произошедшего обмана.
Надеемся на то, что обещания, сделанные сейчас в Женеве и Брюсселе, будут выполнены. Они касались того, что США и НАТО положат «на бумагу» свои предложения. Четко и неоднократно объяснили им, что нам необходимо иметь постатейную реакцию на наши документы. Если какое-то положение не подходит, пусть объяснят почему и напишут «на бумаге». Если подходит с поправками, то их тоже пусть делают в письменном виде. Если хотят что-то исключить или добавить – аналогичная просьба. Мы дали свои соображения в письменном виде месяц назад. Времени было достаточно в Вашингтоне и Брюсселе. И те, и другие обещали, что положат «на бумагу» свою реакцию.
В.А.Никонов: Месяц прошел. Реакции пока нет. Даже были заявления, что не все члены американской делегации имели время ознакомиться с нашими предложениями. Ясно, что со стороны Запада (это ожидалось) идет тенденция «замотать», «заговорить» существующие предложения, выйти на уровень принципов, уйти от конкретики. Сколько мы можем ждать контрпредложений? Сколько могут продолжаться переговоры? Сколько можем вести переговоры, чтобы принять практические решения, о которых говорил Президент России В.В.Путин?
С.В.Лавров: Переговоры с США начались всего три дня назад, с натовцами состоялись вчера. Американцы нам обещали постараться (но мы им сказали, что стараться нужно сильно) сделать свои встречные предложения на следующей неделе. Генеральный секретарь НАТО Й.Столтенберг от имени Североатлантического альянса тоже вызвался положить «на бумагу» свою реакцию. Думаю, она поступит в течение недели. После чего мы с Министром обороны С.К.Шойгу будем докладывать Президенту России В.В.Путину, т.к. действуем по его прямому поручению, это его инициатива. Дальше будем определяться, как реагировать на то, что нам предложат в плане встречных инициатив наши западные партнеры.
Д.Саймс: Если я правильно понял, Вы считаете возможным и целесообразным продолжать переговоры. Исходите из того, что следующий шаг за Вашингтоном и Брюсселем – направить России их контрпредложения в письменном виде. Мне не до конца понятно: Белый дом четко описывает, что будет сделано в отношении России, если она не примет предложения США и НАТО. Даются конкретные списки санкций. Сегодня в Сенате будет голосование по поводу одного из этих них. Он, скорее всего, не пройдет – Белый дом возражает. Существует другой, у которого есть шансы быть принятым. Он отражает уже не просто позицию демократов в Сенате, но и Белого дома. На что пойдет Москва, если в очередной раз российские предложения будут с той или иной степенью деликатности проигнорированы?
С.В.Лавров: Никогда не будем действовать так, как США. Для них за последние годы санкции стали главным инструментом внешней политики. Культура дипломатии и компромиссов практически утрачена. Американская линия на международной арене диктуется осознанием собственной исключительности. Это даже не отрицается. Президенты США (в том числе Б.Обама) употребляли термин «исключительная нация». Это, наверное, хорошо с точки зрения воспитания молодого поколения в уважении к своей истории. Для мировой политики это абсолютно неприемлемо.
Почему мы внесли свои предложения? Хотим вернуться к переговорным методам решения проблем. Как сказал Президент России В.В.Путин, нас «надували», последовательно обманывали с начала 1990-х гг. Теперь спрашивают, что мы им дадим, если хотим что-то сделать в своих интересах. Мы уже всё дали. Рассчитывая на какое-то понимание на Западе, с 1990-х гг. мы не реагировали жестко на грубейшие нарушения договоренностей о непродвижении НАТО на Восток и многие другие обещанные, в том числе «на бумаге», вещи. Имею в виду неразвертывание на постоянной основе существенных боевых сил на территории новых членов. Всё это уже давно «мхом поросло». Угрозы и санкции настолько аррогантны, что для любого человека это понятно. Такого рода абсурдные решения Конгресс США принимал не раз. Ничего не исключаю. Будем реагировать. Президент В.В.Путин в ходе последнего телефонного разговора с Президентом США Дж.Байденом сказал, что если они пойдут по этому пути, то будут разрушать наши отношения. Не хотим никого пугать, будем принимать решения на основе конкретной ситуации, которая сложится в результате тех или иных действий США и их западных союзников.
Вы упомянули ракеты средней и меньшей дальности. Среди предложений, высказанных нам пока устно, в качестве примеров областей, по которым можно вести дальнейшие переговоры, американцы и представители стран-членов НАТО упоминали снижение рисков, обсуждение мер доверия, в том числе в космической сфере, в киберпространстве, а также контроль над вооружениями, в частности договоренность об ограничении ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Показательный момент. Более двух лет назад, после того как американцы «сломали» Договор о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности, практически всем членам ОБСЕ мы распространили инициативу Президента России В.В.Путина. В ней было предложено присоединиться к одностороннему мораторию, который мы ввели на размещение наземных ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Он был обусловлен неразвертыванием таких же систем американского производства. Предложили сделать мораторий совместным. Когда мы только объявили этот мораторий, американцы, европейцы и натовцы говорили о том, что мы хитрые: в Калининградской области уже разместили ракеты «Искандер», а теперь хотим, чтобы они не имели такой же возможности. В этой инициативе двухлетней давности Президент России В.В.Путин предложил согласовать меры верификации, которые потом были разъяснены нашем Министерством обороны. Имели в виду приглашение приехать в Калининград, осмотреть стоящие там системы «Искандер» и убедиться (как мы им много раз предлагали), что они не подпадают под запреты, установленные Договором о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. В ответ мы посетим американские базы противоракетной обороны в Румынии и Польше, чтобы убедиться, что из себя представляют пусковые установки МК-41. Их производит «Локхид Мартин» и рекламирует на своем сайте как установки двойного назначения: для противоракетной обороны и запуска ударных крылатых ракет. Вот что было предложено. Тогда натовцы сказали, что это «не годится». Только Президент Франции Э.Макрон выразил готовность обсуждать, но не один на один с Россией. Генеральный секретарь НАТО Й.Столтенберг опять со своими подозрениями заявил, что это «нечистоплотное» предложение. Никто не сказал, что инициатива изначально предполагала верификацию.
Сейчас это один из конкретных результатов, который мы попросили зафиксировать «на бумаге». Они сами сказали, что готовы обсуждать новый режим по ракетам средней и меньшей дальности. Есть нюансы, что они готовы отказаться от таких ракет в ядерном оснащении. В неядерном будут думать. Разницы нет – ядерная или неядерная ракета будет засечена и воспринята как прямая угроза Российской Федерации. Говорить об этом надо. Они «выдернули» один элемент из наших предложений – инициативу не размещать ударные вооружения поблизости от границ России. Это полезное дело, но в отрыве от главного требования нерасширения НАТО на Восток оно едва ли будет иметь существенное значение.
Продолжим режим ожидания, но оно не может быть долгим. Президент России В.В.Путин ясно об этом сказал на расширенной Коллегии МИД России и в последующих выступлениях. Ответ должен быть быстрым. Знаем, что натовцы хотят «замотать» весь этот процесс. Слышали, что американцы и их главные союзники договариваются сделать ОБСЕ главной площадкой. В этой связи скажу, что мы не вносили никаких инициатив в ОБСЕ. Дали свои предложения, прежде всего, главному игроку, принимающему все решения, – США. Далее – в НАТО, т.к. с ней у нас есть действующий Основополагающий акт. Именно с альянсом заключали соответствующие договоренности. В переговорах Россия-НАТО не участвовал ни ЕС, ни ОБСЕ, они не направляли никакую информацию официально. Высокий представитель ЕС по иностранным делам и политике безопасности Ж.Боррель эмоционально и не очень вежливо «переживает», что Евросоюз оказался «на задворках», якобы Россия игнорирует ЕС. Он сам себя туда отправил – на «задворки» темы европейской безопасности. Считаю, что все «потуги» сформировать новый подход, стратегическую автономию, «компас» – в интересах Европы. С пониманием относимся к инициативам Франции. Евросоюзу никто ничего не разрешит. США уже сделали все, чтобы их послушная «группа поддержки» в НАТО и ЕС вывела весь этот процесс на то, что альянс – это опора безопасности, в том числе для ЕС. Тем не менее мы передали документы американцам и в НАТО.
Хочу, чтобы было понято. Мы не инициировали переговоры в ОБСЕ. Дискуссии по европейской безопасности идут там многие годы. Есть специальный форум – «структурированный диалог», предложенный немцами несколько лет назад. Всё это идет ни шатко ни валко, крутится вокруг Украины. Как только обсуждается европейская безопасность (специальные заседания проводятся каждый месяц, если не чаще), наши западные друзья хором говорят об Украине. Все сводится к Украине. Это было заметно и сейчас на переговорах в Женеве и в Брюсселе. Происходящее сегодня в Вене – это давно запланированное заседание, на котором Польша как новый Председатель ОБСЕ представит свои приоритеты. Не более того. Это дежурный, рутинный процесс. Там все будут выступать, реагируя на польские приоритеты и отношение к ним. Наш представитель упомянет инициативы, о которых мы сейчас говорим. Но главный формат – Россия-США и немного Россия-НАТО.
В.А.Никонов: Это был один из основных вопросов, который все задавали – причем здесь ОБСЕ? Вы хорошо объяснили, что это не наша инициатива, а рутинное мероприятие, направленное на то, чтобы затянуть процесс. Вернемся к нашим возможным ответам и санкциям. Наверняка на переговорах в Женеве и Вене с западной стороны звучал вопрос: мол, если отказываться от наших предложений, что тогда? Наши дипломаты уполномочены давать разъяснения, расшифровывать, что мы имеем в виду под военно-технологическим ответом?
С.В.Лавров: Я уже сказал, что мы не будем уподобляться американцам, которые говорят, что мы, якобы, должны убрать войска с какой-то части своей суверенной территории, иначе они объявят против нас санкции. Это неприлично.
В.А.Никонов: При поддержке американской Администрации внесен законопроект Р.Менендеса о том, что будут введены санкции в случае российской агрессии на Украину. Они включают в себя персональные санкции против ряда лиц, в том числе Президента, Министра иностранных дел России и других, против крупнейших российских системообразующих банков. Насколько это нормально – заранее объявленные санкции? Причем на фоне переговоров о европейской безопасности.
С.В.Лавров: Это своего рода нервный срыв. В бесконечном утверждении собственного величия люди дошли до психологической отметки, которую трудно объяснить. С изумлением читаю все эти инициативы. Вроде взрослые люди, серьезные политики, не первый год в Конгрессе.
Такого рода шаги абсолютно не делают чести. Там есть предложения вводить санкции независимо от того, будет ли «нападение» на Украину или не будет. Просто потому что не убираем войска со своей территории. При этом американская делегация в Женеве, настаивая на этом как ключе ко всему остальному, в ответ на наши встречные вопросы заявляла, что они свои вооружённые силы и военную технику в Европе никуда отодвигать от наших границ не будут. По-моему, это даже не требует каких-то комментариев. Высокомерие высшей степени. Говоря про перспективы нашей реакции, ещё раз скажу, что мы не будем никогда «махать дубинкой» и требовать на переговорах, что если они не поступят определённым образом, то будем их «бить». Будем реагировать на реальное развитие событий. Американцы и сейчас «с пеной у рта» вместе с Й.Столтенбергом «сотрясают воздух» о том, что никакой договорённости, никакого обязательства о нерасширении НАТО быть не может, потому что речь идёт о свободе выбора союзов. Посмотрите, что делают США и Запад в отношении стран, которые не входят в НАТО. Например, Европарламент не так давно принял резолюцию, которая требует прекратить развитие Союзного государства России и Белоруссии. Серьезно, есть такой документ. Американцы пытаются запрещать многим странам осуществлять с нами военно-техническое сотрудничество: грозят санкциями Турции, Индии, Индонезии, Египту только за то, что они открыто, на коммерческих условиях заключают с нами договоры. «Северный поток-2» – тут уже даже не свобода выбора союзов, а просто свобода осуществлять обычную коммерческую деятельность на мировых рынках. Никакой свободы, оказывается, у Германии заниматься своими экономическими интересами не существует. Вот где эти «двойные стандарты» ярко проявляются.
Д.Саймс: Говорят, что Россия должна приступить к «деэскалации» у границ Украины. Есть ли у России готовность идти на «деэскалацию»? Были ли даны какие-то обещания НАТО по этому поводу?
С.В.Лавров: Насчёт свободы выбора союзов, о чём вы сказали и упомянули, что понимаете это, и что это позиция НАТО. Мы не можем руководствоваться позицией НАТО. Мы руководствуемся теми договорённостями, которые на высшем уровне подписали все страны ОБСЕ, в том числе, все страны НАТО. Североатлантический альянс сейчас показывает полную недоговороспособность. Не в первый раз наши западные партнёры оказываются в такой ситуации. Возьмите Минские договорённости, которые не выполняются, также договорённость между Белградом и Приштиной о создании Сообщества сербских муниципалитетов в Косово в 2013 г., достигнутые при посредничестве Евросоюза. ЕС продемонстрировал свою способность помогать достигать решений в сложной косовской ситуации, а косовские руководители в Приштине сказали, что они не будут это выполнять, хотя это было всё подписано. С тех пор проявляется импотенция Евросоюза. Периодически им напоминаем. Создание такого сообщества могло бы серьёзно помочь разрядить напряжённость в этом сербском крае. Сообщество сербских муниципалитетов Косово предполагало предоставление сербам автономных прав, значительно напоминающих то, что прописано в Минских договорённостях для Донецкой и Луганской народных республик. И там, и там Евросоюз принимал решающее участие. В случае Белграда и Приштины он был посредником, в случае с Минскими договорённостями от имени ЕС выступали Германия и Франция. Обе эти договорённости касаются прав славян, прежде всего, православных. В обоих случаях ЕС не хочет и «пальцем пошевелить», чтобы сторона, которая блокирует реализацию этих соглашений выполняла свои обязательства.
Не забудем, что Э.Блинкен сказал про Казахстан. Он публично потребовал объяснений, почему Республика пригласила миротворцев из Организации Договора о коллективной безопасности. Это как? Значит, Черногория, к примеру, имеет право присоединяться к НАТО, а Казахстан, присоединившись к ОДКБ 30 лет назад, таким правом не обладает? Государственный секретарь солидного государства такие вещи заявляет…
Насчёт передвижений по своей территории, там уже звучит не только про дороги, которые нам рекомендуют использовать американцы, не только про то, чтобы «отвести» войска от границы с Украиной (как они выражаются), а уже про то, чтобы эти войска «ушли» в казармы. В.Шерман именно так говорила, в том числе публично, на пресс-конференции. Не думаю, что есть необходимость объяснять абсолютную неприемлемость такого рода требований. Не будем их обсуждать.
В.А.Никонов: Видите ли Вы взаимосвязь того, что произошло в Казахстане с началом переговоров по стратегической стабильности в Европе? Как бы вы оценили действия России, логику действий ОДКБ? Укрепились ли наши позиции на этих переговорах в результате того, что наши миротворческие силы вошли в Казахстан, или нет?
С.В.Лавров: Есть много конспирологических теорий. Одна часть этих «теоретиков» спекулирует, что это всё устроено Западом, чтобы ослабить наши позиции перед переговорами в Женеве и Брюсселе. Другие обвиняют нас в том, что мы это спровоцировали, чтобы «ворваться» в Казахстан и взять его под «свой контроль». Это всё «от лукавого». Причины нам примерно понятны. Обсуждаем их с нашими казахстанскими коллегами, с другими странами ОДКБ. Казахстанские власти проводят тщательное и полноценное расследование. Уверен, что результаты они будут оглашать, когда это расследование завершится. Это не имеет никакого отношения к «проискам» Москвы, к каким-либо ещё теориям заговора. Это дело Казахстана. Нур-Султан этим активно занимается.
Что касается наших действий, то была прямая просьба Президента К.-Ж.Токаева, нашего союзника, основанная на обязательствах, которые все члены ОДКБ взяли на себя, подписав Договор о коллективной безопасности и затем Устав Организации Договора о коллективной безопасности. То, что это было сделано идеально с технической и логистической точки зрения, а также с точки зрения достижения результата, когда были развернуты миротворческие силы ОДКБ для охраны критически важных объектов, это всем очевидно. Президент Казахстана констатировал завершение выполнения основной части задач и анонсировал договорённость о начале возращения миротворцев по своим «родным» государствам. Это тоже говорит о том, что результат был достигнут достаточно быстро и эффективно. Страшно было наблюдать картины погромов, поджогов домов, отрезание голов полицейским, отношения этих погромщиков и террористов к журналистам. Ещё страшнее было для меня с точки зрения моих профессиональных задач наблюдать за реакцией Запада на это, в том числе той же самой ОБСЕ, которая претендует на одну из ведущих ролей в вопросах европейской безопасности. Организация неадекватно реагировала на события в Казахстане и в конце концов пыталась призывать всех к тому, чтобы соблюдать права журналистов, права человека и т.д. Это стыдно. В таких ситуациях надо прямо показывать причины того, что произошло. Будет завершено расследование, и результаты должны быть представлены мировому сообществу.
Д.Саймс: К переговорам, которые ведутся с Вашингтоном и Брюсселем на основе того, что только что произошло, Вы по-прежнему относитесь хоть с каким-то оптимизмом? Или Вы делаете то, что надо делать? Как говорит В.Шерман, может быть, Россия понимает, что договориться не удастся, но просто решила попробовать, а потом будет делать то, что она хочет делать на Украине так и так. У Вас есть надежда на успех переговоров?
С.В.Лавров: Всегда работаем над конкретными задачами. «Надежды юношей питают», а мы уже более зрелые люди. Привыкли отталкиваться от жестокой реальности. Она заключается в том, что нам обещана письменная реакция. Мы её дождемся и потом будем определять свои дальнейшие шаги.
Насчёт оптимизма у нас есть такая пословица: «Кто такой пессимист? Пессимист – это хорошо информированный оптимист».
Dear Russian leadership,
Talk is cheap. Action matters. You will be forever tied-up and befuddled by the words of American jewish negotiators.