Dear friends
Today I am opening yet one more open thread and I am offering this suggestion for a topic (not excluding other *related* topics from the discussion): what should the scope of the Russian reaction to a Ukronazi attack be?
Here, I will offer my own opinion in a short bulletpoint format:
- Russia should intervene within hours of any Ukrainian attack because leaving the LDNR forces alone will result in needlessly high LDNR casualties. Yes, they can probably resist very effectively, but the cost might be very high. Russia can help without any such massive loss of life.
- Early in the operation Russia needs to “lock” the airspace above the theater of operations (at least in the Ukrainian operational depth) and officially declare a no-fly zone.
- Russia should strike throughout the operational and even strategic depth of the Ukraine because the Ukronazi armed forces must be disorganized and decapitated. Key Ukronazi officials must be eliminated just like the Wahabis in Chechnia and Syria have been.
- Russian forces should stop at or near the current line of contact for a number of reasons including i) the fact that Russia has no moral obligation before the Ukrainian people who have to liberate themselves and not wait for Russia to do so ii) Russia has no need for a long counterinsurgency operation iii) Russia did not break the Ukraine and should not be asked to pay for its reconstruction iv) if Russia inflicts a severe enough defeat on the Ukronazi forces the country will implode anyway.
- LDNR forces, however, need to move as far as they see needed to establish a permanent international border (recognized or not, makes no difference) between the LDNR and the rump Banderastan. Russia should support LDNR forces by “maneuvers by fire”, EW, intelligence, control of the airspace and special operations.
- The entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force (both admittedly rather symbolic and amusingly tiny) must be destroyed (including their support infrastructure). The Nazis must be disarmed, like Saakashvili has been in 08.
- Though it is unlikely that the Ukronazis would attack Crimea or attempt to breach the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border, Russia should be ready to fully repeal even a major attack on these directions.
- Should any insurrections take place in cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa and other, Russia should not openly intervene, but could use her considerable EW and cyberwarfare capabilities to disrupt the functioning of the local Ukronazi authorities.
- The radars of Russian coastal defenses and Black Sea Fleet vessels should all be switched to a targeting mode to make it clear to any ship sailing in the Black Sea that it’s lifespan is measured in minutes and totally depends on the goodwill of Russia. The same goes for the control of the airspace along/near the Russian airspace.
- Last, but not least, Russia should announce the total termination of any and all good exports from Russia to the Ukraine (including energy). Let them choke without the “aggressor’s” goods.
These are just some of my thoughts today, suggestions if you want. Now I would like to turn this over to you and see what you have to say.
Kind regards
The Saker
What should the scope of the Russian military action be to a Ukie attack?
Destroy the attackers.
Send the LDNR forward to take all of the two oblasts.
Secure Mariupol.
Capture the leadership of the Ukie government for war crimes trials.
Using missiles and drones destroy the rear logistics of the Ukie military.
Using standoff munitions drive the Ukies back to Lviv.
Fracture Ukraine as a nation. Attrit the utilities and all roads beyond Novorossiya.
If NATO takes any action into Ukraine to support the Ukies, utterly destroy it.
To keep the Russian troops out of Ukraine, expand the North Wind, supply whatever the Generals want to give to the LDNR and North Wind vets.
If Qatar or Turkey send ISIS/AQ Islamic fighters, send them a Kalibr missile message.
Maintain a NO FLY ZONE over all of Ukraine.
Bring in peacekeepers from Belarus.
Immediately, bring in humanitarian assistance to the civilians of the Ukraine.
Allow UN peacekeepers into Western Ukraine.
Russia does not want to own Ukraine. It wants Ukraine broken and dispersed.
Russia should want 80-90% of Ukraine to no longer exist.
IF NATO wants a mini-state of 8-10 million nazis centered around Lviv, let them have it.
The rest of former Ukraine should be considered Greater Kiev and Novorossiya.
Greater Kiev shall not be allowed to have military, only a police force and border-customs guards.
Agree w all your astute points except –
‘IF NATO wants a mini-state of 8-10 million nazis centered around Lviv, let them have it.’
There wont be NATO soon enough why allow the dead and buried nazis to hang around?
Thanks for your insightful sharing
Once they started the war, there is no telling where and how deep Russia will take them.
Hence I have a feeling the paymaster does not want to pay for this war – its too expensive for them
the dollar could fall overnight should they really push and trigger ww3
They want it in Crimea. The ‘oligarchs’ sprawling in the Czar’s palaces.
If Russia decides to “strike first”, why not do so with an oil embargo? I respect the fact that Russia wants to be viewed as a reliable supplier of oil, but some of it’s European customers are effectively greasing the skids for war against it.
I’d rather see Russia just stop all hydrocarbon exports to Europe, until Ukraine is de-radicalized, and all foreign troops withdrawn, than let loose with bombs, EW, whatever.
If NATO extends an offer to Ukraine to join, then Russia can just make the embargo permanent; or until such time as they are subsequently expelled.
In this scenario, we can amuse ourselves with thoughts about a pared down, future NATO, consisting of the US, Ukraine, and maybe Poland.
The US has amped up it’s development of hypersonic missiles, so I don’t think “being close to the border of Russia” will have the same significance in a few short years, that it does, now.
If war really becomes imminent, Russia can prevail on China to do an analogous “trade holiday” with the West. That would probably impact China much more than an oil embargo would Russia, as manufacturers can (and are) moving to other cheap labor locations, such as India and Vietnam.
However, nuclear war is bad for everybody, and lots of the armchair generals here are predicting that. Who knows if war mongers in the Pentagon, who have relevant decision-making stature, are just as convinced? Because of the uncertainties implicit in nuclear war scenarios, even a Sampson option sounds enticing.
Oil and gas embargo would be a suicide and other providers would be very happy to replace Russia the day after.Including american oil and LNG(that is the goal in fact by stopping NS2).Gazprom mega capitalists and other russian energy companies would not allow that to happen, they would even prefer a coup against Putin.As Putin has shares in gazprom…forget that idea.
Don’t forget that Russia is a neoliberal country(unfortunately), this is why salaries are still very low compared to western countries eventhough there is a big improvement since Putin took over.But inequalities are immense mainly in Moscow the most expensive city in Europe after London and Paris.
This would provide the perfect excuse for the US to convince the EU vassals to buy US oil and LNG, even if 50% more expensive.Saudi and Qatar(Algeria ?) will deliver iso Russia.American are even capable to allow Iran back on the market and lift the sanctions just under conditions they replace Russia for EU deliveries or Venezuela for the Kerozine.
The neocons hate Russia so much they would do Anything to reach their goal.Syria and Ukraine are not a defeat for the neocons but a big succes, they created failed states for Israel(like Iraq,Libya, Lebanon, Afghanistan).They want the same in Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Belarus and finaly China one day.
Why would it be a “suicide”? For whom?
I don’t buy that Putin’s security can’t protect him against Russian oil folks, or that Putin would let his gazprom shares take precedence over avoiding war.
If Europe wants to pay 50% more for their energy, for the privilege of subservience to the US, well, go ahead. This may be a short term win for the US, but will sour relations amongst Western nations, in the long term.
“In this scenario, we can amuse ourselves with thoughts about a pared down, future NATO, consisting of the US, Ukraine, and maybe Poland.”
That would be a pared down future NATO, consisting of the US, Ukraine, Norway,The Netherlands, Portugal, and maybe Poland.”
Not that NATO would be much stronger for that matter. Right here, just a bit beyond the fence of my back garden, our (otherwise jobless) boys and girls are happily training for their task with fake ammunition.
There is absolutely no point debating what should/nt RF do in case Ukraine, in fact, NATO, attacks. We have, at best, limited info to be able to guess.
The best strategies, adequate responses to this or that event, tactical developments, economical, cyber, and other preparations have been already worked out and re-re-tested
by VVP and his professional teams headed by Shoigu, Patrushev, Lavrov and
Gerasimov. Does anyone here doubts that these teams are not prepared for any option?
I do not believe that VVP will be surprised the way Stalin was on June 22, 1941. He had an opportunity to learn quite a few profound lessons regarding deep states treacheries, in addition to his analytical experience in DDR, handling wars in Chechnia, Gruzia, Ukraine and Syria. Is there any statesman today in the western world that can claim even a small portion of his insight, knowledge, spiritual vision, and of course, sense of humor? Perhaps Xi Jinping, but he is in the E.
My only prediction is that, this time, surprise will go from E -> W.
Regards, Spiral
Russia must not be dragged into the Ukraine but rather drag NATO into that swamp. Let them have their Iraq & Afghanistan there. It is easy for me to say because I don’t do the bleeding, I know. That brave people of Rep. of Donetsk will need to sacrifice to avoid a bear trap for Mother Russia. Instead, it will be the death-stake for the Western offense alliance, especially when Afghanistan heats up.
Its a trap – dont take the bait. Do nothing. Create a problem for the AZE elsewhere, somewhere where they least expect it.
In Canada we hear the same thing as US Media, Russian Aggression. RT has not mentioned what
Is occurring once to my knowledge, so there will be no point with Russia trying to influence any media
to get their view point out.
Full annexation of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, and maybe all of the southeast. Russia should also cut off all trade and exports.
Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter discusses US foreign policy, the decline of US empire, and the shift toward a multipolar world. He considers the Biden administration to be one of the most dangerous in modern times as it has gone back to square one (the post-WWII era), demanding American allies and the world subordinate themselves to Washington. He looks at the rise of Iran, the failed Forever Wars in the Middle East which have destroyed the American economy and military, and considers NATO a joke of an organization no longer capable of fighting a war. The U.S is unable to catch up to China’s economic infrastructure investments and the consequences of continued hegemonic behavior and failed diplomacy could translate into escalation of military conflict with Russia or China and ultimately risk the use of nuclear weapons.
https://youtu.be/Okhgsdezpk0
Russia actally does need to go to war.
Only IF DIRECTLY ATTACKED by Ukro forces along the border or if Crimea is attacked…and it is unlikely…
Russia can better and strongly protect LNR and DNR and that’s it. And let Kiev regime to make fools out of themselves.
And let West to scream and cry …
And the rest of Ukraine … if they want to be free they have to do something for themselves first
What incredible work by The Saker the past few days. Utterly riveting stuff. I agree with all his points but have questions/clarifications/concerns about points 1 and 4.
Here they are:
1. It makes sense to wait for the Ukies to attack and then counter, as you can then implement the principle of self-defence for the most part. But the question is for how long? Any counter attack will instantly be labeled as Russian aggression. How much time needs to pass before the Ukrainians are clearly identified as aggressors? 1 hour? 6? 12..a full day?
4. I understand the idea of restraining oneself to the contact line, but goodness recreating a land route from Donetsk to Crimea must be a high priority long term Russian objective. I wonder if securing Mariupol and/or Berdyansk might partially achieve this objective and be enough to deter any further action by NATO forces. It appears these are the 2 largest cities on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov. Perhaps there are ports there that maybe of medium and long term value?
If this were to happen, I would then open the door to Chinese money, reconstruction and soft power as an example for the rest of Ukraine.
I wait everyone’s feedback. What a great thread.
Mariupol + land access to Crimea – NS2, it doesn’t look bad business, it can be an interesting gambit.
This looks to me like a good idea.
Securing the region, or at least an enclave, around Mariopol and Berdyansk and into the Sea of Azov would provide more protection for the Kerch Strait Bridge. It would turn most of the Sea of Azov into a Russian lake.
At least that’s what my study of the map suggests.
Katherine
I agree with Saker list, but I add a sugestion: in war case Donetsk Republic must capture Mariupol city.
Russia should do what U.S. does: stage a fake falseflag attack on Crimea from Ukrop side, and then invade Ukraine under the pretense of ‘defense’. Why not? It’s what the U.S. has done for 150+ years
Russia should definitely not do anything whatsoever apart from supplying materiel support. We all know that as soon as Russia lifts a finger, then the big push to cancel NS2 will be on. I believe Russia will NOT intervene in the coming war (overtly that is) nor should it. NS2 is far more important because the whole global future is in the balance with NS2 being a key strategic linchpin. So Russia needs to stay their temptation and sit this one out, just help the DNR/LNR with supplies and tactics as always.
I’m becoming more convinced that this latest ‘flare-up’ is nothing more than another US/Nato effort to ‘extend’ Russia economically, diplomatically and militarily. I borrow the term ‘extend’ from a RAND report ‘Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground’ published in 2019, commissioned by the US Army.
This report is interesting. To quote the Preface: “these steps are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, leading Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, inspiring Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.”
Of course one can’t expect the US JCS to follow it to the letter — one can’t even be sure if indeed they’ve read it — but it does help the reader to connect the dots and see the bigger picture right from sanctions, Syria, Navalny, NS2, closure of diplomatic offices, demonisation of VVP right to the present dangerous situation in the Ukraine and Donbass.
______________
Heartily agree with Saker’s proposals except, with due respect, No 9 ie to switch on all targeting radars. There are not many Nato ships in the Black Sea but certainly they should be illuminated. RF naval ships stationed near the northern end of the Bosporus may also discourage a sudden influx of ships not belonging to the navies of Black Sea powers.
No 10, ie to stop all energy supplies to the Ukraine is interesting. I was surprised to read (RT) that RF exports cheap electricity to the Ukraine. Frequent blackouts at logistics and comms centres, and dead signal lights along railroads, or indeed dead trains, can be a nightmare for any army. A temporary halt in gas export to Ukraine — due to RF’s ‘concerns about pipeline security and safety’ — will show up US’s inability to make up the shortfall for sure and even shore up the importance of NS2 in European minds. But this step No 10 needs to be balanced with RF’s need to be seen as a reliable supplier to Europe and Germany in particular.
Last but not least, a salvo of Zircons and Khinzal on selected high value targets — in broad daylight if possible, and fully monitored by FUKUS/Nato — would not be amiss. Doubters will be convinced and many of the convinced, from admirals downwards, will be prompted to prepare their letters of resignation.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
https://www.rt.com/russia/519944-ukraine-power-plants-destruction-volynets-claims/
The way to ultimately defeat USA is to destroy US dollar. USA has no true friends, only mercenary allies they buy with dollars. Send dollar to zero, and the greasy, slimy “friends” of USA will undoubtedly abandon them.
How to ruin the dollar? Sorry. I’ve no idea – but that would be the way to defeat the Amis.
It is already happening and quite fast. The China -Iran deal will price oil in Euros or Yuan. Russia and China pay each other in their currencies I think and alternatives to SWIFT are getting started.
As Lavrov alluded to, Ilya Muromets needs a strong draught of rising potion, I suspect he already drank it.
Your points seem quite optimistic to me. For example, the people of the Ukraine do not and will not have the power to overcome whatever the West wants to impose. All independent and pro-Russian forces have been cleansed over the decades. The people around the world routinely have almost no power. Next, how is it, exactly, that Moscow would prevent NATO from moving into as much as they could and saying that it was necessary to prevent another egregious and lawless attack by Moscow? NATO would argue they have a moral obligation to save the abandoned and destroyed Ukrainians. And, furthermore, how is Russia going to change the media, schools, and NGOs to be pro-Russia? Russia largely lost the infowar by not showing up. Only controlling the Donbass means the rest of the country will still be a paradise for the worst anti-Russian info imaginable. A new Poland in the making. Why allow that?
Saying that Russia shouldn’t pay for the West blowing up the Ukraine is a moral argument more than a practical one. The West achieved its aims to a large degree there, and Russia didn’t. They were outplayed for decades. The West didn’t get the Crimea, but it will have Odessa as a Naval base and a huge supply of cheap soldiers to regularly attack a huge border or the border with Belarussia. Staying inside the Donbass won’t change any of that.
Countries don’t implode very often without a new regime. You are explicitly arguing that Moscow should not put in a new regime. In fact, it sounds like the Western propaganda is still fairly effective inside the Ukraine. You don’t get the spoils of war without going through the war first.
My suggestion is that Moscow should try to dismember the country. Recognize a bunch of new countries, and put their guys in charge of places like the Odessa Republic. Drive the pro-European folks out of the East and even Central Ukraine to a degree. Create a refugee crisis for Poland. And blow up the electrical grid in Kiev and Lvov. The EU will only talk to Moscow when there is something they need badly. Like permitting the refugees to settle in Lvov. Let the Donbass/Novorossiyan army keep shelling Western towns so that the area is depopulated. Then Warsaw and Berlin will call Moscow every day begging for a settlement. They don’t recognize win-win deals, so it is only ending pain that Moscow can offer them.
Of course, none of us know the calculations behind closed doors. But Kiev hasn’t collapsed since 2014. Actually, it has consolidated power and driven the pro-Russian folks out of as many places of power as possible. A totally different situation from 2014. And quite predictable. Being moral would not have permitted the USSR to defeat Nazi Germany, and it won’t help Russia defeat NATO. Everyone wants to, and has to, side with the winners.
Offer to help the Ukronazis retake “their” land. Because it’s the last thing they expect.
Then a surprise invasion of China to liberate Christians. It can succeed because nobody sees it coming. The US and India will join the invasion of China, and the Ukraine problem can disappear over night.
Arrogance is caused by ignorance and ignorance is the source of evil.
I have no doubt, whatsoever, that Russia will do the right thing to stop evil.
My thoughts and condolences are with the parents of the 5 year old boy killed by an Ukranian drone.
Murdering an innocent child is evil.
https://www.stalkerzone.org/the-ukrainian-army-purposely-killed-a-5-year-old-child-in-donbass/
If Russia can shut down Ukraine’s electricity, why didn’t it do it permanently after the 2014 Coup? Since we have Nazis taking Kiev, that would be entirely justified. Okay, the West would call this “aggression”, but now Russia will find it infinitely more difficult to challenge the satanizing narrative of “aggression” from the West, since we will have tanks and troops in action. The question of electrical energy would have been something more indirect and intelligent, wouldn’t it?
Regarding the scope of the actions that Russia must take during the conflict, I would say that it must establish total conditions for the birth of Novorrussia as an independent and ally of Russia. This would also serve to protect the Republic of Transnistria, since the Nazis of Kiev will almost certainly try to take revenge for the pain of defeat by attacking Transnistria, for the simple sadistic pleasure, because that is what defines them as Nazis. Of course, I would like Russia to take Kiev and kill even the last Nazi present in Ukraine, to rid the country of this miserable disease, and then leave the country to be rebuilt by rational Ukrainians who would then be Russia’s allies. In this case, Saker’s premise that the Russians are under no obligation to rebuild Ukraine would not be disobeyed, in addition the Russians would have an ally on the western border overflowing with gratitude for the liberation from the Nazi disease.
Saker could argue that a protracted conflict whose scope was to free Ukraine entirely from Nazi disease would be too dangerous and too expensive. But then I ask: how dangerous and how expensive, in the future, can it be to allow a neighboring country to be governed by Nazi Russophobes and to be a breeding ground for the proliferation of anti-Russian terrorists and also a breeding ground for NATO ballistic missiles? It seems to me that the danger of allowing Ukraine to continue to be governed by Nazis is much greater than destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces and overthrowing the miserable infection in Kiev.
Hi. Good discussion so far! Thank you.
Americans seem blissfully unaware of the excitement in Donbass. We are quite busy with our Color
(or Cultural) Revolution. It is quite interesting to watch. As for Donbass: we don’t know and we don’t
care. Ukraine either, really. We’re really concerned about White Supremacy and Anti-Racism. That’s
it. And money. And political power. Real estate. Etc.
For what it is worth, my thoughts on what Russia should do: I think President Putin will obey the
letter of international law, and I think that is very wise. So, no invasion of Ukraine or direct attacks
on Western or Ukrainian forces unless Russia (including Crimea) is attacked, in which case the
right of self-defense would be invoked. That scenario would represent a failure of President Putin’s
and I don’t expect that to happen. So, that leaves providing assistance to the residents of the
Donbass to resist an invasion by Ukraine, plus plenty of contract soldiers from Russia.
In other words, I think President Putin continues as before, but surely informs Western
leaders about what sort of unpleasant outcomes might befall them if they directly intervene.
And I think we all know about those sorts of things — except of course the new political leaders
in D.C. who will likely need to be informed about the real strategic situation.
Putin’s insistence on trying to please the anglos shows how entrenched he remains in his pro-Western(anglo really) pro-Globalist capitalist views! That is why he fails in securing his legacy and endangers Russia’s sovereignty and it’s future as a united prosperous nation!
Russia has been too passive in the face of constant provocations, they need to take a risk and do something bold.
“I think President Putin will obey the letter of international law,…”
Of course. The Russians are going nowhere any time soon and the current stalemate balance, although less than ideal, is not stopping any essential Russian development. In fact the western sanctions are helping with the necessity of it. Of course, if attacked then they may take to opportunity to tidy up the western border and protect Russian speakers, but otherwise time is on their side: gas, Sputnik V, China relations, climate change etc.
On the other hand, Germany’s Merkel is fading fast. The French Yellow Vest uprising is only on C-19 lock-down pause.
However, it is on the ‘non-agreement capable’ wrists that the political clock ticks fastest. Old Joe ‘gangster’ Biden is one stroke, a flight of stairs and a few last remaining alzheimer-free neurons away from handing over Airforce-One to an unelectable Hindu-Harris presidency. This time next year, basically within 12 months, the USA will be entering its mid-term mass hysteria elction cycle with unknown $trillions in printed debt and either C-19 extended, or back to standard influenza epidemics. And the Trump GoP are totally focused on cleaning up the US election process/system in preparation for the angry 50% to get their voice back.
For Russia, there will be the usual collection of friction points but the only serious risk V. Putin has to avoid is choking on his popcorn as the EU cough, sneeze and wheeze themselevs to death and irrelevance.
For at least a couple of years he (and his team) have made it crystal clear they are ready, willing and able to defend Russian sovereignty to the max.
Recent events in the Suez canal show clearly the next logical high-priority is to establish the ice-breaker fleet capacity to open up the northern route for Chinese (and other) shipping trade.
Southern borderland skirmishes are largely distractions and Nato basically drumming itself up another year of increased operating budget. Biden would rather have Ukraine collapse due to Russian ‘agression’ optics going forward than a deeper peace-time analysis of his historic criminal antics during the Obama regime (and for which Trump was simply an unfortunate 4-year interruption).
“The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. During this mid-term election year, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. Thirty-nine state and territorial gubernatorial and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested. This will be the first election affected by the redistricting that will follow the 2020 United States census.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections
Russia should respond the crisis in UkroNAZIstan Asymmetrically!!!
The First basic thing they can do is to partially arm Hezbollah and Houthi through Iran. Send them ton of stuffs like high precision Kalibr Techs and Hypersonic Jets Engine with 1000 Km+ Endurance, Hezbollah can check-mate Israel & let Houthi swept the House of Saud, end the wars in ME and liberate the Holy Land! Let them teach the Gulf Pimps better stop paying the bills for their ISIS terrorists and co..
It will also served as warning to decision makers in HELL-AVIV not to pull something stupid in UkroNAZIstan and Syria this time or face the bloody consequences from Hezbollah in Lebanon & Houthi in Yemen. They will put pressure on US gangs in Libya and US AFCOM.
More importantly, Russia should give full support to Taliban and let them send some love to the US troops in Afghanistan a price they must price for bloody drugs killing business all these years.
Even better, lease some hypersonic jets engine to Kim in Pyongyang. World would be a better place. Peace will prosper.
Here is what the average Ukrainian does not understand……Without the DNR/LPR they would be sent into a war against Russia by Obama/Biden. A war they cannot win, with millions of victims. Obama/Biden wants the Russian World to wage war against themselves.
In the Donbass they are fighting for the Russian World which includes Ukraine. Once you see this geo-political perspective you will understand Putin’s position better. Crimea was strategic and historically Russian, it had to be returned to Russia no matter what the cost. However the DPR/LPR cannot be annexed because again Obama/Biden will send Ukraine into a war within the Russian World. The Donbass is a buffer against that war in the Russian world, Putin is doing everything he can to ensure a war in the Russian World does not occur.
Hopefully this helps to explain why Putin did not just immediately annex the Donbass as he did Crimea. I struggled for some time trying to understand why he didn’t.
Here is where the geopolitical position gets tricky. We currently have a stalemate while the LPR/DPR are defending the Russian world. A stalemate is a victory for the Russian world and a defeat for the coup in Kiev.
Obama/Biden will at some point have to concede Ukraine back to the Russian World. Also it is my opinion that US/NATO will not enter this war…….it is a war for the Russian world to weaken them.
I believe the current hostilities are due to; DPR says Ukraine poised to derail new round of Donbass talks in political subgroup, MARCH 30, 2021 11:03
There is a continuing pattern of aggression by US at critical times. ie Biden and Zelenski phone call and the shelling ramps up. I firmly believe that the goal is a war within the Russian world.
I object to the word “Ukronazis”. I see the country being led by Zionists and their usual puppets. This is classic Zionism: Rule and divide.
Precisely the same in USA and all Western countries. In this particular case of Ukraine, they have already won. Two great people of the Eurasian continent are played against each other, and as usual, both parties are full of blood thirsty “specialists” ready to annihilate all opposition.
Of course this is in vain, but what now is needed is the good old statesmanship, the strength to avoid death and destruction. But I know well, that the Zionist propaganda is strong and the siren songs of the war are ever so sweet, and loud.
These sirens are going to win in both cases of war and peace, if we do not silence them. And believe me, not one of them will risk their lives in the real battle. These sirens sing from the bunkers of media. They never lead from the front as they are the genuine cowards.
I wish the leaders of Russia find the way to avoid succumbing to these sirens of war. Sincerely.
These neo-con/liberal psychos in US need a hard reality check, the key is Isreal who are owns these racists and enables them. Has to be a back channel to Tel-Aviv to inform the Netanyahu government that in the event of a Nato nuclear premptive attack on Russia then Israel will be the 1st objective of the Kremlin’s very own Sansom option. The US military operates under a doctrine of Nuclear Primacy as articulated in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.
As for Ukraine, the US/UK cabal will continue to sanction Russia however ineffective and counterproductive the result so if hostilities proper do commence then Russia must derive some strategic benefit/depth and reintegrate the territory of Ukraine into its sovereign borders. Given that the Nato military planners/fantasists believe they can reboot Operation Barbarosa across a multi-theatre front, Russia should also greenlight China to take back Taiwan.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I am not very optimistic for mankind’s collective future. The US/UK establishment hatred of Russia can be traced back to the Russian revolution.
Thank you Saker for your important work and providing an alternative to the sanitised propaganda spewed by the habitual Western mainstream media. Andrei Martyanov’s the (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs and Losing Military Supremacy are also great reads.
Hello from France
Dear Saker you seem to be right.
However…
However, if something like that happens, you know the political price for that.
Sure that in Washington they will saber their best champagne.
USA will definitivelly launch a new iron curtain and none european vassal will be allowed tout trade with Russia no more.
And it will be the same for the whole empire, Japan, Korea, ect…
Russia then will totaly depend on China.
Is it a good thing?
Things are differents than in 08.08. in Georgia, there were Russians peace soldiers who were attacked. And it only for THAT official reason that Russia striked, not for defend Ossetia.
In our case, Russia would commit a true agression act against a souverain state.
like Irak on Kuweit in 1991.
I think that
1. Russia must declare a no fly zone on the area
2. Russia must use intelligence, EW ect …
3. Russia must allow russian volonteers, even in her army to help Donbass without sending officials russian troops.
4. Hope that Lavrov had already prepared a French-german reaction in the first ours to officialy ask to “stop the violences” before ONU to act before US.
5.Hope that China will be more tight in his backing Russia than usual.
However, I can say what I want, in fact, diplomatic outcomes will propably be the same.
Vlad always surprised me before. Hope that he prepared another judo trick of his way.
A bloodbath is coming. With very very very dangerous stakes for peace in the world. Let’s pray on this Easter monday.
Best regards
There’s a chance that this is not a provocation of a war between Ukraine and Russia per se, but is an overall attempt to surround and subdue Russia altogether and collectively.
In such a case, a potential war would have many participants and many fronts, where Ukraine is like a distraction. That is, to attract attention away from what is planned.
It can go like this: surprising provocation from the south (Georgia, Armenia, or anything helped by Turkey) not to represent great capability but to steal some Russian effort there. At the same time (or even before), an attack from a relatively more neutral part like Scandinavia (e.g., Finland and co) for the surprise effect. Then maybe trying to fully activate the provocation from Ukraine. Later Turkey allowing US aircraft carriers in the Black Sea going together with a NATO invasion from Poland, Baltics, Romania, Moldova, etc. Including a direct fight between Russia and Turkey.
Russia will use powerful tactical weapons (tactical nukes and/or additional less common and less known things like EMPs and probably others), especially against Turkey.
While I think it’s unlikely to have a real outright war now, if we have one I think it’s unlikely to simply be a war between Ukraine and Russia alone.
Dear Saker,
If I may surmise a possibility:
1. On land; A swarm of small drones and EW systems that relay coordinates of all tanks, stationary and mobile missile systems in real-time so that a barrage of hypersonics will take care of the “crazies.”
2. At sea; Well, methinks that the Black Sea region is so well covered…End of story.
3. Airspace; Lockdown of the TOPS(Theatre of Operations)/AD.
The goal is not to fight Russia. No, no, it may look so and there may be a fight, yes, for sure. But the goal is not Russia.
The goal is the White Man and White Countries. The only thing that matters, is the question: “Is it good for us? Is it good for us Zionists?”
Zionists rub their hands gleefully, if all White People fight each other, preferably kill each other.
They also want to have, at last, free hands to bomb and mutilate Iran, and this is one of the strategic reasons to create hostility between The Western and Eastern White Man. That is classical standard Zionism: War by Deception.
If there will be a war or at least warlike situation in Ukraine, then the harmageddon of Iran starts also. What a pleasure to the cowards in their glass palaces of “media”.
Make no mistake. This is not against Russia, it is against all White People, wherever they are. The biggest mistake would be to listen to these sirens from hell. Instead we should identify these people, who live from wars and destruction. Once and for all.
Russian media have reported that NATO fighters have been authorized to patrol Ukrainian national airspace near the Donbass contact line and in the area near the Russian-Ukrainian border.
If this happens, it is possible that the fighters will bomb Russian-speaking positions in Donbas. (Same thing happened in Operation Storm in Croatia, 1995 when Nato jets destroyed Serb communication lines).
The agreement is said to have been concluded at yesterday’s meeting between the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine R. Mashovets and the NATO Representative in Ukraine, A. Vinnikov.
It is difficult for me to think about the ways in which others give their lives for me … Anyway, I remembered that as a child my parents repeatedly asked me for tolerance and stoicism, as a Christian virtue, in front of other children who constantly attacked me. But this did not appease my attackers, on the contrary, it seemed to encourage them to continue their hostility. At one point the situation was of such a nature that, forgetting everything I was taught, I exploded and gave their leader a good beating. They never bothered me again.
Russia has endured for almost a thousand years the siege, the aggression, the attack, both ideologically, militarily and economically, etc., from the “West” stoically and many times trying to be friends with them. I believe that this empire that began in Venice will never be a friend or savior of Russia or the Slavs, on the contrary, I believe that the western peoples need to be saved and that this loose devil be chained again.
I believe that, at this stage, when the power in the shadows was able to put a person like the current president at the head of the empire, and therefore it will be used to provoke something serious, the Russians with their true allies must be proactive and not leave the initiative to the demons …
why should i worry? or why should anyone else worry?
putin, shoigu and lavrov are PAID to do the worrying and planing…
i choose to enjoy life
I think Russia is trying to deter an attack by Kiev. I hope they succeed. The past two conflicts were disasters for Ukraine. What should be different this time? The only answer I can think of is that they hope to involve U.S., or maybe the Biden administration is encouraging them. My impression is the basic problem in Ukraine is the Nazis. How can they be marginalized? I don’t know the answer.
I wonder if Russia could make a case to the ICC? The problem with this is that the ICC is political and Russia would not necessarily receive a fair hearing. Kiev would probably go to the ICC with its own charges. Russia has been trying to work with the EU to resolve the Ukraine crisis but the results have been unsatisfactory. Is there an alternative framework?
West wants to suck Russia into big war …to stop development and economic recovery of Russia.
Of course to stop NS2.
Russia has to avoid any war till 2035.
Russia just needs to make good protection of LNR and DNR without getting involved in major war on Ukraine.
This is trap and I believe Putin and his team will find way to deal with this challenge.
No need to wage a war on Western borders, but instead making sure it doesn’t get into an all out war. Russia should do what it had to do long time ago and what it will have to do eventually if it prefers to postpone it for now. Mainly, in cooperation with Iran and China and a long list of many other countries in the region, take control/security of shipping and financial transactions from the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal which passes by the Bab-al-Mindab and the Horn of Africa waterway, making sure all the trading are done in an equitable manner and away from the phony US dollar reserve status and its so-called the Swift system, which by the way are dying anyway. The new system could use, a basket of currencies including the Yuan, Euro, Ruble etc. but not the US dollar for sure. Following this move, mostly likely, the Bandaristan, will cease to exist, which is good considering no shots were fired.
Russia should invade entire Ukraine except for the three far western regions of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Lviv Oblast and Zakarpattia Oblast. These three provinces will be the new rump Galician state where all the hardcore russophobes will set up a new state.
A new client regime will be installed in Kiev with control over the rest of Ukraine including Donbass. After a certain period of time, the client state will join Russia like Crimea.
It is a principle of Vladimir Putin and the Russian government to not embargo essential goods, which obeys international law that interdicts holding a population hostage by starving or freezing it to death. However, there is no obligation whatsoever to deliver goods for free. The day Ukraine declared war on Russia, I expected Russia to deliver goods and services only and strictly only if payments are received in full immediately. I would shorten any grace period for payments to one week.
Paid your bills for last week?
Yes: deliveries continue.
No: services put on hold.
In case of blocked SWIFT transfers, payments will be due in physical gold.
You have some good points, but I think in case of exclusion from SWIFT, the Russians should simply offer Ukraine to pay in in Rubles using the Russian payment system.
If they have some Rubles left, that is. Otherwise physical gold for all goods and services delivered by Russia to the Western bloc. In my opinion, this is the nuclear option in the finance sector. Up to the Western bloc to make up its mind, if it wants this explosion thrown into its face.
I find it unsettling to read about what should happen in the “big” operation and equally unsettling to sense an eagerness among some commentators to see RF finally get it’s own back; a literal misunderstanding I think; the RF leadership are making a point about the infantile egos of western decision makers when referring to the microcosmic power struggles of small children and street gangs. Lavrov (God bless him) said it was perhaps trendy! As Ian Dury said ” there aint half been some clever bastards”…and who was his sax player?…Gilad Atzmon…I digress…
We’re not talking microcosm in this Ukrainian border situation, but i wonder if we might?
As someone rightly pointed out, the RF will have their strategy and their best men and women working on it. I was wondering (and may the schooled military minds point out the realities, please?) if in the muddy lead up to the inevitable media storm of RF aggression and the perhaps inevitable “big” operation, it might be productive to enable the East Ukrainians to have a 100% lethal response to each and every act of Nazi Ukrainian aggression? Perhaps supplying them with appropriate materiel of the “plausible deniability” kind. For example, every time a piece of artillery flashes, it’s hit by another obliterating flash. I presume there’s a risk of escalation in this, is it possible it could quieten the guns too? I see the “Russian Aggression” headlines as a kind of “cry wolf”, could a series of “cry wolf” headlines over relatively small actions (each with a precursor Nazi aggression) not outlast the attention span of the imperial media audience? Israel has been doing it for yonks from Lebanese airspace.
i think they need to buy time for the Germans to finish connecting the NS2.
“I think they need to buy time for the Germans to finish connecting the NS2”
I suspect the Russians are in no hurry to complete NS2. If the Germans cancel it, they will have to compensate all investors – including the Russians. The gas can get a much better price in Japan or South Korea – as LNG.
The Germans will be compelled to pay a high price. They deserve it. Ukraine will continue getting transit fees. Russia does not really want Ukraine to suffer an economic collapse. Slow strangulation is quite enough. TurkStream has already reduced their income considerably. Maybe the Ukrainian people will eventually wake up and kick out the Jews in control. Anything is possible.
Rússia should take this oportunity to seize Odessa, Mariupol and other Ukrainian territories using the Novorussia Rebels as proxies.
Here is a small update of the past 24 or so hours that I’ve gathered from various twitter feeds (so far, these are realistic and local conditions reported accurately as far as I can determine – but please be aware of non-factual or hysterical reporting):
Seems like the Ukro’s are continuing with low level (and cowardly) attacks where they see an opportunity:
Dean O’Brien – BA (Hons)
@DeanoBeano1
Yesterday at 19.30, the village of Gagarina was again shelled. A shell flew into the wall at 36 Grechko street, where an eight-year-old child was inside. The neighbouring property, number 45 had their roof damaged. The power supply was also disrupted. #Donbass
https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1378992245261623296
Dean O’Brien – BA (Hons)
@DeanoBeano1
Breaking
Reports coming in now of yet another drone strike on a civilian in the Lugansk People’s Republic. The man has multiple shrapnel wounds and has been rushed to hospital. It happened on the banks of the Seversky Donets River near Nikolaevka #Donbass
https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1378700314962972675
The following speaks for itself and this twitter feed has much on the ground reportage:
ASB News / MILITARY
#UKRAINE- Ukrainian government officially announces full intention to join NATO – origins of current conflict can be applied to this.
Following tweet
#Ukraine— Like we said, this is all about NATO membership. Ukrainian govt posted this 20h ago.
You cannot join NATO with an ongoing territorial dispute (Crimea, Donetsk) – otherwise NATO would have to go to war for Ukraine – with Russia.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1378939420842283011
ASB News / MILITARY
#UKRAINE- 2x US Military C-17’s flew into Ukraine carrying unknown cargo today. 1 flew straight from USA with a fuelling stop in Spain and 1 from their Ramstein airbase, in Germany.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1378885581569196032
Mark Sleboda’s twitter feed has some breaking news – it is worthwhile taking a look at it while this ‘war of nerves’ continue:
https://twitter.com/marksleboda1?lang=en
Appearances count. If Ukraine is dumb enough to attack Crimea Russia will get directly involved. It will march north from Crimea and start with securing its water supply.
If the attack focuses on LPR/DPR Russia will officially stay out. It doesn’t want to be labeled aggressor. But I assume that they have helped them making some preparations – including some kind of counteroffensive that should convince Ukraine that aggression doesn’t pay.
Speaking from W-European perspective, besides another banker’s war in our backyard, what is most disturbing and feared is the barrage of Western Propaganda that will ruin Russian – West-European relationships for the foreseeing future. (which of course could be shortened by this “upcoming conflict”)
I understand there are many voices from over the Ocean saying chickens come home to roost, Europa gets what it deserves and should beg for forgiveness, Russia finally should give up on Europe and look Eastward etc.. Despite the romantic rhetoric of Russia fears war but is ready to fight etc.. , I wish the escalation to nobody.
Russia should not get sucked in to the doctrine of “time is now” to strike a bloody noise because our super weapons will be countered in 3 years. That’s typical USA imperial thinking, make use of those “beautiful weapons”.
Stand fast defensive and principled. That’s what I hope Russian will do.
In the meantime find a counter solution for the Western-Propaganda that will actually be popular in no time at low cost.
Filling the whole left by the once perceived objective BBC is too much of a job.
Be funnier than that OPed sarcasm on RT mixed with football, wrestling and babes.
Have a Streaming Channel repeat / copy western “news”, ad some of the always missing context and do it Borat-Western-stereotype-USSR reporter style.
That’s proven to be popular. I remember youngsters wanting to actually go on holiday to Kazakhstan on that moment.
Make a comedy channel that can be digested by Westerners without adding stress or urgency or imposing guilt per se. Their own lying media already does a good job in that. Tiresome.
The “indiffernet populations” of Western Europa and USA have enough of that steerless guilt feeling induced by Cov rules, LBTG, BLM racism, immigration, womens’ equality, climate issues, animal abuse, polution, lacking education to understand matters, way enough of that already to feel sad for poor misunderstood Russia on top of that.
A certain class of people in the West need to be ridiculed and denied service and servitude.
So that’s why I demand a state with resources to build hypersonic missiles, maybe to launch a couple, to devote some of those resources to lighten up things with alternative but funny news that can attract many followers. A one man show with a Youtube channel doesn’t pull it.
Soft power of vaccines: provide easy short travel visum for Vaccin Tourism to get FREE Sputnik V at Belarusian border or in Crimea. Few will come due to travel restrictions but it is worth a try to win the hearts of the unwashed other than by hosting World Cup in an impeccable way.
To take it or leave it, tomorrow another story :-)
Russia should also deflect world attention from Ukraine towards other theatres, e.g.; arrange with Iran a temporary or permanent air base for long range bombers in Iran on the Hormuz strait, kick off an Ibled offensive and maybe, if China’s support is for once actions rather than words, send a couple of ships on patrol with the Chinese navy in the South China Sea
Putin expects to be attacked on three fronts if there is a real war, this is just part of 1 front, The US / West is an economically failing state with NATO as part of its foreign policy projection making it unpredictable and dangerous. I feel that the recent US moves of the b1b bombers to Norway and b2’s to Portugal are indicative of a greater plays in motion. I think that Putin / Shoigu will do as little as they can to keep from over committing troops and resources to just one area when there is a possibility and even a likelihood of other fronts starting up in a real war.
If diplomacy and western judgement fails the western forces in the Ukraine can expect a limited fast and brutal skirmish that will have the Ukrainian forces and their Nato handlers licking their wounds for quite a while. If it goes beyond the Donbass region it will be anyone’s guess where it will go, The West Pointers hate to look stupid so there will be a lot of ego involved in the Ukraine from the west, Another point is that Putin is a martial artist and he he will always try to use his opponents momentum against them — diplomatically, or militarily, however that can be achieved
Subthread. Are NATO members preparing for the worst-case scenario?
On 24’th March 2021, the Italian Government has published a very suspicious procurement, where it requires 12 lots container camps for 12 of 20 regions she haves. Not only containers but industrial washing machines and dryers, linen and accessories, etc. Strange enough this procurement date coincides with the insane Zelensky decree date. But it may be just a coincidence.
I am from Albania, a NATO member state, and besides the COVID chaos, our government is preparing for general elections which will take place on 25’th April. I searched our government procurement website but I found nothing interesting about this topic till now. Our government is infamous for its secret procurement procedures and it may well be the corrupted ministers are hiding this procurement to gain more profit for themselves by procuring their close associates and partners (not to mention NATO corrupt affiliates grabbing filthy dollars from satellite countries like mine).
I found this information from an Italian essayist and columnist called Diego Fusaro.
The link to the Italian Government procurement site below.
https://www.acquistinretepa.it/opencms/opencms/scheda_altri_bandi.html?idBando=06261172d495b253
President Putin has always handled these situations skilfully and often in what seems to be the wrong way, but later the wisdom behind the strategy becomes clear. The plan you have outlined would easily solve the problem but would then allow the NATO countries to bleat about aggression. The plan here is obviously to create an excuse to give Russia a headache from more sanctions and stopping Nord Stream 2 and isolating Russia.
That being the case I can’t see President Putin going the Saker route. I think he will wisely try and avoid obvious conflict and rather use special forces and an artillery cauldron as previously used, to repel the Ukro Nazis without providing any excuse to NATO. NATO knows better than to commit troops to Ukraine. Yes the US and Europeans will tell all manner of lies through the propaganda MSM, but the lies ring a little hollow if nothing very overt is going on. The west has bleated for years that Russia is fighting in the Ukraine, nobody pays that very much attention any more. Russia should also warn the Ukrainians that breaking the ceasefire agreements will cost them their energy imports etc. Let NATO have to replace the energy supply and good luck getting paid for it!
Russia could say in the UN that it has imposed a sanction on the Ukraine because it broke the peace treaty, what can the UN say? Russia is under far more sanctions for far less reason. The Donbas is an open sore, but it’s a case of who does it bother the most? For Russia it is a nuisance it can manage knowing that the Ukraine is self destructing all the while and it is better to leave that as the west’s problem to have to spend money on it to pick up the pieces, knowing (as they surely do) that great amounts of that money will end up in corrupt hands. The way I see it, President Putin benefits greatly by continuing the status quo as much as possible. The one item on your list I do agree with is tactical removal of certain bad actors. There is so much intercenine conflict in the Ukraine that proving such and such a Nazi was killled by Russia would be very hard to prove.
It occurred to me that this may all be about Nordstream 2.
Realistically this war would serve no point at all. Ukraine would get slaughtered. Putin will not take over Ukraine. It would be a huge burden to Russia. The boundaries would stay basically the same. Nothing would change.
But the West would get a huge propaganda victory with their own people. The Western media would denounce “Russian Aggression.” There would be endless pictures of dead Ukrainian soldiers. This would be followed up by editorials to end “Nordstream 2.”
Many deluded Westerners would “rally” and call for a cancellation of Nordstream 2.
That may be what is really behind all of this.
If this is true, then the way to stop the war is Merkel.
Yes. Merkel is a Neoliberal. But does she want to go down in history as the person who destroyed the German economy. Because that is what will happen.
American fracking has not been cost effective from day one. Fracking companies are filing bankruptcies in large numbers. The average lifespan of a fracking field is only a few years. If Nordstream goes down there is no realistic back up plan to supply Germany with energy. And without cheap energy German manufacturing is finished.
Just like the Biden Administration could care less about dead Ukrainian soldiers, they could care less about dead German industries.
Merkel is one of the few German leaders intelligent enough to understand all this. If she doesn’t understand this by now, Lavrov should lay it out to her. Does she really want her legacy to be the destruction of German industry?
Getting the message to Merkel might save a lot of people from needless death and suffering.
Mike, I agree with you except for Merkel being the ‘saviour’ of NS2. The deep state in Germany is too strong even for her, now in the final days of her career and well past her political prime.
The person to save NS2 and check-mate the hegemon is Putin if he plays his cards right in Ukraine, as he did in Crimea 2014.
Simon,
I agree that Merkel is on her way out.
But she is very well connected with (and respected by) the business community. The business community in Germany will take a major hit if Nordstream 2 is cancelled. It has been their muscle that has kept Nordstream 2 alive so long.
Merkel can also influence Macron.
The powers in Europe can probably get the United States to call off the dogs. That happened once already when Biden was in the Obama administration. It was Biden himself who convinced Poroshenko to stop the terrorist attacks in Crimea. The reason Biden gave to Poroshenko was the difficulty it was causing the Untied States in selling the Ukraine intervention to America’s European allies. Here is a reference to the tape where Biden told that to Poroshenko.
https://www.unian.info/politics/derkach-s-tapes-poroshenko-planned-sabotage-in-crimea-in-2016-11068301.html
Is that the only thing that Putin should do?
No. He has to come up with more in order to stop this war.
But convincing Merkel is far from an insignificant move.
Mike, Merkel is nice to have but not essential now. The die she cast is already set. The empire wants to break the cast.
Ukraine is a Vietnam-like quagmire, either for Russia or for the Empire. What’s going to happen in Ukraine is existential for the Empire but not for Russia.
But if Putin make a wrong move, Ukraine will both become a quagmire for Russia and enable the Empire to reassert itself for the long term against Russia.
But if Putin makes the correct Sun Tze move, the empire will be check-mated within 3 years.
And Mike, I advocate being good peacemakers. But it is not wise to always try to stop wars. If war is made imperative by one party, which in this case is the empire, I say make use of it as there are opportunities for both peace and progress in any crisis. All one can do for peace in this case is to mitigate the effect of war, especially on the innocent.
Saker, your plan of action is good. But it occurs to me that given Russia’s overwhelming military superiority, any military conflict will result in a Russian military victory anyway. Bandarastan’s US backers will know this. So why are they provoking the Russian bear?
The clear answer is to lure Russia into a political defeat that will weaken Russia overall in Europe, doom NS2 and enable the Joe “America is back” Biden to reassert the US back as unquestioned Hegemon in Europe. And facilitate further action by the US to destabilise Russia at Russia’s doorstep.
But from my point of view, the US’s action in using Bandarastan to pressure Russia militarily in Ukraine is exposing the Empire’s jugulars to the Russian Bear’s claws.
With one gambit, much like the legendary Bobby Fischer’s Queen sacrifice gambit, (I am not suggesting Putin sacrifice anything, certainly not the LDNR forces), Putin could in a single military gambit, win both the military and political war – i.e. defeat Bandarastan militarily, discredit it politically thereby causing its fall politically, continue to bleed its backers, cement NS2, checkmate the US economically and politically by slashing open its financial artery and secure peace for Russia and the world for at least 2 generations.
How could this be achieved? As Sun Tzu said, “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night”. So I won’t say. But I shall pray that God’s will be done.
Simon,
I think you are right. This is about stopping Nordstream 2. As I wrote in a post above, American fracking is not really viable even in the short term – it loses money. If Nordstream goes down there is no realistic back up plan to supply Germany with energy. And without cheap energy German manufacturing is finished.
Lavrov should explain this to Merkel. The Russians should promise that if Merkel pressures the EU to stop this war, that Russia will cut off titanium sales to the United States. That would be the end of Boeing which is already on its last legs. That means that Airbus becomes the West’s only remaining commercial airline producer.
Europe wins economically. War is avoided and lives are saved.
Mike, I am glad you got the bigger picture. Putin is a brilliant man and China gave a copy of Sun Tze’s Art of War to Russia after the cold war.
Just think about what will happen to the US economic hegemony if NS2 succeeds and succeed now in the context of the Sino-Iranian pact and the Saudi’s stated pivot to China. The impact of NS2 will be force-multiplied by the impact of China-Iran-Saudi Arabia – all sans the US dollar!
I shall say no more. Now we shall see whether Putin can skilfully skin the Hegemon in Ukraine!
Russia should turn off the energy streams completely to the EU/Amerika. Demand settlements in bitcoin or gold, silver, etc.
I was raised to hate the Soviets in public school. Easy to manipulate young minds, I am now in my 50″s and view Russia as a model state. Thank You Russia for RT. The Evil the Russians are dealing with is beyond compare. Very few citizens recognize that Amerika is a Military Dictatorship within our sphere of control. Propaganda has whipped our citizens into a sort of blood frenzy. They ache for the Rapture and are willing to act upon this. Never before have we been this close to War. One political party has chosen Russia as the boogie man, the other China.
Any way the dice fall, who gets to pay the price? I hope for the future… Peace, Pot and Microdot..
The Hippie.
Dear Saker,
Between what you proposed and others’ contribution, damned internationally if you do, damned domestically if you don’t.
To what extent the RF’s population is willing to suffer hardship will likely influence Putin’s final formula.
Anyhow, there is finally some coverage in English language Russian media:
https://www.rt.com/russia/520127-ukraine-donbass-open-war/
Reports of Russian troops ‘massing’ near Ukraine miss the mark: Russia-Ukraine war is possible, but only if Ukraine strikes first
https://sputniknews.com/russia/202104051082543404-russia-to-respond-to-ukrainian-sanctions-in-line-with-national-interests-kremlin-says/
Russia to Respond to Ukrainian Sanctions in Line With National Interests, Kremlin Says
—–
Typical Peskov understatement… Meanwhile southfront reports:
Kremlin Replies On Situation In Eastern Ukraine https://southfront.org/kremlin-replies-on-situation-in-eastern-ukraine/
https://southfront.org/kiev-continues-on-the-war-path-emboldened-by-false-promises-map-update/
—–
And this could make things go way south if provoked:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/defender-europe-us-army-arrives/5741600
Russia-Ukraine war is possible, but only if Ukraine strikes first. -RT.
Looking at the pieces on the table:
1. The loss of NS2 is probably a foregone conclusion. Even if Germany cannot be bent into cancelling it, American UDTs may clandestinely destroy it, and may already have mined it.
2. The cruelty of the tormentor’s game is that they are trying to force Russia to kill Ukrainians, in order to demonize Russia to Europe, and justify more hybrid war against Russia.
3. In Syria the US and Russia are sharing the same airspace, while supporting opposite sides of the conflict.
4. Turkey is a wild card, playing both sides the past three years.
Wargaming it Out:
Path 1 – Russia does minimum to defend Donbass without crossing border, at the expense of civilian lives in Donetsk, loses NS2, that’s as far as it goes. Internally, Putin’s party will be hurt by letting Russian people die in Donetsk. Externally, if Russia can just wait 2-3 more years the USA is on its last legs economically.
Path 2 – Russia goes full invasion of Ukraine to the Dneiper. US will use mass hysteria to attack Russia in other areas. Risk of escalation to regional war against NATO.
Path 3 – Russia hits US forces in theater with a debilitating first strike without touching other NATO forces. Escalation is certain, but if a sufficiently embarrassing defeat could be inflicted, it may cause European countries to lose interest in being in NATO.
Path 4 – Russia attacks the USD by raising the price of oil and gas in USD. This is ultimately what the pipeline game is really about. Ensuring the hegemon’s currency is the only currency used for energy purchases, thus propping it up. Ironically this is how the US attacked Russia in 1980s as well as in 2014-2018. This time the vulnerability has reversed. The USA is a currency empire. Without US dollar dominance, I doubt the states would even be able to stay together.
The biggest problem for we here is, we don’t know what is happening inside Donbass. Sure we know the surface things,we see a video every once and a while.And some guesses from people there with no real insider knowledge,but that is it.There doesn’t seem to be any in-depth reporting being done from there.We knew more in 2014 what was happening.But now we don’t know how really prepared they are for an attack.
Are there enough bomb shelters,do they have food supplies,water supplies.And the weaponry, we knew about it in 2014 because we saw it,and we knew how they got much of it,because we saw that too.How many troops do they have and how well trained.The few videos I’ve seen lately show basically the same diverse looking group I saw in 2014,mostly early to late middle-aged. Are the Russian volunteers that were there to stiffen the ranks like before coming back? Did Donbass draft men and train them over the last years,in Donbass or in camps in Russia?Does the military still have brave but untrained officers,or are the Russians putting in “advisers” or even just providing the trained officers ,something like the old Soviet Commissar system? What type of new weaponry are there to fight with.Is it new and advanced to match the Western supplied weapons the Ukies are getting? Or still the older Soviet weapons,at least hopefully modernized.And what about attack drones,does Donbass have any to match the ones the Ukies are using to attack them with?
And maybe most important are they going to wait for a full Ukie attack before fighting back,and are there more guarantees than words from an interview that Russia will fight.Saying you won’t let the people of Donbass be massacred could have many meanings,like how many have to be killed for it to be a massacre,and how many of them women and children? Already the Ukies killed a 5 year old yesterday.That poor little boy was born in fear of Ukie attacks in 2016,and lived his whole short life in fear of them. And now was killed by them.So yes,what does it take to be called a massacre.
I saw daily in 2014 the horror of the Ukie attack, basically an attempted genocide of those people. This can not happen again,I don’t know if those innocent people can stand it again.But if it does happen,and they do stand it,it must never ever be allowed to happen a third time.The Ukies must be driven out of Donbass,all of it.They can’t ever be allowed to shell civilians again.Just going back to the same old lines is not acceptable.This time Donbass should see justice done.
Propaganda is already running strong !
Look at the title of the video and compare it with a date of posting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZwfUyfVDgA&t=3s
IMHO, a real military confrontation should be avoided, if possible, even if it “costs” more “sanctions” including the abandonment of NorthStream II.
It should be made clear (as it already has been stated by Russian officials) that the Ukrainian statehood in its current form will suffer damage if the Kiew government takes military action against the Donbass republics. But is should remain totally unclear what the reaction would be to not support any “Chess” play thinking on the part of the Empire.
If an attack is immininent, so that a shooting war seems unavoidable otherwise, and once enough military provocations have been committed by Kiew (most likely already fulfilled) and the Minsk agreement is fully abandoned by the “West” (also most likely already fulfilled), then Russia should formally recognize the Donbass republics to legally enable military action on Donbass territory. If at all possible other countries should recognize them as well, but this is wishful thinking.
This serves as the maximum possible military deterrence against a Kiew attack, and it also offers the Empire a way to demonize Russia and damage the EU-Russia-relations and most likely to block NorthStream II without a shooting war.
The abandonment of NorthStream II and the final destruction of the EU-Russia-relations is, of course, one of the main goals of the Empire which controls the Kiew government.
By recognizing the republics Russia would hand the Empire this victory.
It would also give Kiew an excuse for military action, so this dangerous step should be taken only once it is clear that Kiew would attack anyway without further deterrence.
The only alternative would be to abandon the Donbass republics which I would consider not acceptable to Russia. Also Kiew has positioned itself to also claim Crimea which is already part of the Russian Federation, so the Donbass is just a forward defence position.
In the best case, Russia is “punished” by “sanctions” (that what the Empire wants) and Kiew is deterred to a permanent stand-off.
A worse case would be a Kiew attack on the Donbass. Russia would have to take military action which should be kept to the absolute minimum possible, like no-fly zone and destruction of attacking enemy military in the Donbass.
The worst case would be an attack on the Russian Federation, i.e. Crimea, in which case Russia would have to dismantle partially the Ukrainian military and declare a buffer zone to prohibit any further attack on Russian territory or the Donbass republics.
I would not rule it out the the crazy criminal fascist rulers of the “West” really want a war. But in this case Russia cannot avoid it anyway.
I still don’t think that the Russian leadership fully realizes that Russia is being existentially threatened. Either that or they can not/will not face the reality that it is.
Let me repeat.
It is.
Therefore, since no one else is going to state That Which Cannot Be Stated, I will.
The very first step in either defending oneself from attack or preemptively attacking is to identify the command center of the enemy and plan exactly how to completely destroy it as quickly as possible after the decision to do so is made.
In either situation, if possible, and in this case it is possible, that command center should be destroyed, again, as soon as possible after the political decision is made.
If those enemy forces that are being commanded by the command center will likely not carry out their orders after seeing that their command center has been destroyed — which in this case is highly likely, IMO — the preemptive-strike option should be the preeminent option for self-defense.
And whatever you do, For God’s Sake, do not inform your enemy’s command center that, no matter how much weaponry and manpower it places near Russia’s territory, that Russia will not attack those massed forces until those massed forces begin to attack first. This is the recipe for either overwhelming, bloody, eventual defeat or preemptive, unconditional surrender — the latter causing far less damage to The Empire’s latest Jewel in the Crown.
Hello.
After crushing Ukraine, Wlad should push his troops through Europe and annihilate the NATO and the EU.
Then we’ll be free.
This is not a war between Ukraine and LDNR/Russia, this is a war between NATO and Russia and should be handled as such. I see that sentiment against Ukrainians is very negative here, but I see that as a trap for Russia. Russia should avoid making criminal mistakes which Serbs did in Balkan wars. Russia shouldn’t fall into this primitive trap of nationalism, Russians and Ukrainians are brothers and need each others on the long run. Wars come and go but strategic ties and interests stay. Ukraine is conquered and have no independent government. It has become an instrument (weapon if you want) in the hands of NATO, and that is its sole purpose right now. It shouldn’t be destroyed, it should be liberated.
If I was Putin, I would make it good on that open debate with Biden (this time without Biden) for the eyes of the whole world, and would call the things by their proper names. I would say that attack on LDNR or Crimea would be perceived as an attack of NATO against Russia (which is what it really is) and would responded accordingly. I would immediately switch from lame peace posture to real and full war posture. I would send those 2.000.000 selected Russians to atomic shelters right away and put strategic forces on full combat alert. I would declare no-fly zone above Syria and the whole Black Sea, and made clear to Erdogan in no uncertain terms what is at stake here. I would also issue an ultimatum to NATO to remove those missiles from Romania and B1’s from Scandinavia. I would park enough of the relevant Russia’s Navy assets to Cuba and Venezuela, along with strategic bombers. General mobilization should start immediately, pull out all those old tanks and such from the war reserves and position them accordingly. I would most rapidly take it to another level (actually three levels ahead) and then would ask the NATO what’s it gonna be: war or peace? And any other answer except peace would mean war. That game of chess Russia played for 20 years has run its course, it’s time to switch to Western Saloon style of poker, and call the opponents bluff: Russia’s going all in, who’s calling it?
Any other alternative (limited conflict, partial solutions, buying additional time, negotiations, diplomacy…) is just a quick sand where Russia will eventually bleed out and drown in it. They have to realize that time is not on their side anymore, NATO policy will not change for better – just the opposite, public opinion in the west about Russia will not improve, diplomacy has lost its usefulness and effect…. it’s a crossroad, fight is inevitable regardless if you’re ready for it and want it or not. Learn from Iraq, Libya… but also from Caucasus and Yugoslavia. From this point on situation will only be more difficult to handle and more complex, and if Russia is not able to defend itself adequately it will be partitioned, demilitarized and exploited. Maybe the audience here will think this is far fetched (as it is on short term), but don’t just focus on bait of Ukraine conflict, see the design behind it all and the purpose of it. Best man Lavrov has exhausted his arsenal, it’s time for Shoygu to conduct “forign policy” with his. Or else. Enough is enough.
And if the logic and reason prevails, we will have true world peace and prosperity in a new multipolar world. If not… that’s where this all eventually and inevitably leads anyway.
Sarajevo veteran, I think that all of what you propose, if carried out, will be very effective. The commenters here have to understand that threats are merely words, and REAL preparation for war is nothing but wisdom revealing itself.
The Command Center makes threats every day of the week, so its threats are considered par for the course. Russia does not normally issue threats, let alone threats to destroy aggressors’s cities and their militaries, so Russia’s threats are going to be taken very seriously by ALL of the members of the western oligarchic transnational elite collective (WOTEC).
Russia’s threats have to be made in full public view, by every means available. The citizenry of WOTEC’s nations have to be made aware that their lives could be drastically altered for the worse if their nation’s “leaders” continue to act aggresively against Russia, by either military or economic provocations.
WOTEC must be internally divided and, hopefully, permanently fractured. They’re all cowards when it comes to the very real prospect of suffering the horrors of war and its certain horrible aftermath (if there even is an aftermath), so that should be relatively easy to do ……………. as long as they perceive Russia’s threats as real and something Russia will actually carry out. Here is where the Russia’s domestic, mass scale, preparations for all-out war would be very valuable, IMO.
IMO, the more specific the threats, the better.
Apna, we’ll soon know if your assertion about Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Peskov is true or false. So far, IMO, their actions tend to support the former. To put it bluntly, you should not try to negotiate or reason with a very hungry Great White Shark-of-a-nation whose vassal “pilot fish” just swim along, underneath it, for “protection” and food-scraps.
I think you are on target. Many still try the 60d chess, but the overview is actually quite simple.
If allowed, nato and friends will attack russia while claiming to be attacked.
Something has to be done to reverse that course.
Otoh, i cannot believe for one second that the higher echelons of russia dont know that, and with better visibility than us couch coaches, so lets hope they keep playing smart and winning the game as per the last half decade.
Hello!
After reading your thoughts I’ m wondering: – Is this the best or the only way to solve the problem?;
-Is your analysis based on some facts observed or any intelligence gathering so far or is it a prediction of what will happen?;
In respect to the books enlistened above, in a short statement what are they talking about?
Thanks
As I understand it, the front lines are quite close in many places. It should be easy for the “rebels” to install WiFi that the Ukrainian soldiers can access from their mobile phones. This would allow them to have a website where they can keep these soldiers informed as to what is really going on. In the event of a conflict breaking out, the soldiers would informed how to desert.
OTOH, I think the Russians should use large missiles to destroy the bunkers where the officers of NATO are sheltering. Also, the Azov Battalion must be similarly eliminated. The new border should be only far enough west so as to make it difficult for the Ukrainians to continue sheltering in civilian habitations when they launch their mortars.
Mod. I’m not sure if you’ll accept this here, or prefer it in the Cafe.
But as we discuss what “Russia should do” {in the event of an Act of War against her in Ukraine}, I thought this piece from Russia would be interesting.
It’s not so much military action, as the mind set which I suspect is solidifying across Russia. And it’s aimed minimally at Ukraine, but more at it’s current ruler and owner, America.
It shows a blunt determination, without mercy, which the current Rulers would do well to understand. Thing is, I doubt they do.
However here it is, for interest and consideration:
//www.putin-today.ru/archives/122081
“Then they will definitely die”
“By provoking a major war within the Russian world, the United States of America will sign a non-appealable death sentence for itself
No matter what anyone says, the stakes in the Donbas are probably higher than ever before. The Kiev regime has fallen into the trap of permanently failing to comply with the terms of its own surrender, known as the Minsk agreements of the second phase. And today they are fully aware that for them this is, in fact, a deadly trap. Because as long as he continues to dress up and show off about it, the war, instability and devastation in Ukraine will only increase. And this will increasingly undermine the already shaky foundations of its financial, economic, and socio-political stability. That is, for Kiev, the conclusion “you can’t go on living Like this!” is one hundred percent obvious.
The only way out for him
Kiev in this situation is to break the Minsk agreement completely and already irrevocably and impose on the other side such conditions that will finally allow the Ukrainian authorities to at least start climbing out of the hole where they are now and which threatens to become their grave.
Kiev’s calculations are dictated by its desperate situation and therefore, in principle, cannot be sufficiently balanced and firmly grounded. In such situations, an adventure is the only way out, and the main rule is ” either ban or disappear!”. Moreover, Putin personally promised the abyss in this case to the Kiev Locum Tenens of America’s interests. And he usually keeps his word.
What do the supporters of the “decisive blow” in Kiev expect?
Mostly, on rather ephemeral and by no means guaranteed opportunities. There are also hopes for their own army, which has by no means proved during the seven years of the war that it is even possible to hope for it. On the weak and short-term resistance of the LDNR, who, they say, are so tired of fighting that they will ask for peace at the first serious onslaught. They hope, of course, that the “Kremlin towers” that Kiev needs will turn out to be more agile and successful than the ones that it doesn’t need. And, of course, the main hope is that Russia will not dare to go against the West and go too far in relation to Ukraine.
All this, of course, fortune-telling on coffee grounds and counting on the proverbial maybe. But it has already been said above that apart from the adventure, Kiev has nothing else to count on objectively. Their main hope and support is that Washington has just given its serfs another turn away from the gate, when, instead of real guarantees of security and protection from “Russian aggression”, it muttered its usual “mentally with you” and promised to throw a little more “Javelins”. America in this way made it clear to its Ukrainian watchdogs that no one will drag chestnuts out of the fire for them. And Kiev definitely does not Shine to be the tail that can twist the American dog.
In short, the regime is clearly told that you are sitting in the pit, not us. And you need to move to get out of it, not us. So, as they say, go ahead with the song. This is the main message of Biden, who told Zelensky that “America is together with Ukraine these days.” But their roles are slightly different. Just like a horse rider and a Mare.
What does all this fuss mean for Russia? It is clear that nothing good and the stakes are also very high. Although, of course, not in such a lethal context as for Kiev. Nevertheless, another attempt by the permanently agonizing Ukrainian regime to achieve its goal by force of arms, which will surely lead to thousands more victims, including among the citizens of the Russian Federation, will finally put Moscow in front of the fact that it has an active hotbed of war and a source of constant bloodshed at its side. To tolerate the existence of which for an infinitely long time there is no possibility. Moreover, this hotbed, fuelled by the Western world camp, will continue to flare up more and more strongly.
It is for this reason that the degree of determination of the Russian Federation to end this malignant tumour at its borders has significantly increased over the past one and a half to two years. Even quite significantly. Moreover, Moscow has an understanding of the very bleak prospects, in which the state of permanent war between the two main parts of the Russian world will be supported by the West for just as long as it is necessary to completely destroy this Russian world. Including, of course, the part of it that is called Ukraine.
The prospect is very real and increasingly bloody, as this situation continues. And it requires the leadership of the Russian Federation to make really far-reaching decisions.
It is not a fact, of course, that these solutions will necessarily be found on the military-power “track”. Moscow is obviously well aware of the initial unviability of the “Ukraine-anti-Russia” project, which can only exist at the expense of the West or the Russian Federation. And we are ready, in order to avoid the shedding of rivers of Russian blood on both sides, which is extremely undesirable not only for humanitarian, but also for political and strategic reasons, to allow the process to come to its logical conclusion in a natural way. However, such a choice depends only partially on the will of Moscow. And Russia’s opponents always have the opportunity to impose the most undesirable option on it.
That is why the question of what are the stakes in this geopolitical “game” for America itself is very important. At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be anything particularly scary for her. Well, just think, another local war according to the American scenario! How many of these have already been?
But if the US understands the situation so simplistically, then they are very much at risk of a major miscalculation. Because a big war between two parts of the same Russian people, if it is imposed on us by the West, will ultimately become a war to destroy the West itself. USA anyway. Russians have never forgiven anyone for such things. And if they are pushed to the edge of the abyss, then everyone will fly into it EN masse and America itself will be ahead of everyone.
The United States, by and large, has existed for more than two hundred years, not least because its former rulers still had the sense to always have an ally in Russia. Or an opponent, but within strictly defined rules. But if America abandons this Golden principle of its foreign policy and goes even further towards Russia in lawlessness (the beginning of this was laid by the treacherous seizure of Ukraine in 2014), then I will not bet even one ruble for the future of the United States.
The actual Declaration of war on Russia, and not only on Russia alone, but on the entire vast Russian colossus, is a death sentence for the Anglo-Saxon “civilisation” as such. The Americans simply don’t know who they’ve contacted. And that the Russians in this case will not rest until they take another Reichstag, this time in Washington.
I strongly doubt that America, in its current godless, unchristian and dishevelled state, will be able to withstand this onslaught. And it’s not about nuclear missiles at all, as someone probably thought. They probably won’t even take off.
Those who have already had the stupidity in their history to have Russians as mortal enemies can tell the naive and inexperienced “Pindos “how such”experiments” end. I don’t even want to fantasise about this vast topic, so the treachery of the Russians, who are very much touched to the quick, is infinitely inventive in relation to their enemies. I don’t want anyone to be one of them. Retreat to exhaustion along the old Smolensk road, and then die in the ruins of their own Reich Chancellery, these are still the most innocent options that are destined for the opponents of the Russian land. However, Alexander Blok wrote about this a hundred years ago:
If not, we have nothing to lose.
And treachery is available to us!
Centuries, centuries you will be cursed
Sick later offspring!
Or maybe someone thinks that the country that created the world’s first and best Covid vaccine is not able to create something else of the same quality, but with a minus sign for the United States?
One thing is clear: in this case, Russia will destroy America precisely with the rage that they are now provoking themselves. Stupid American people think that if they don’t know some rules, then such rules don’t exist at all. But this is a fatal and deadly mistake! And the most important of these rules that are never cancelled by anyone is: “Do not Wake up the Russian bear!”. And if they do Wake him up, then rule number two comes into force: “it’s not my fault if you can’t ad don’t hide!” It has never in its history encountered the consequences of the practical application of these two rules.
Yuri Selivanov
https://news-front.info
“
I am of this view too
who in this room expect, if nato attacks russia, that china and iran will just sit and watch?
If they respond to the war, who expect china and iran to fight off nato? or would the east go to the source of the problem and deal with it there?
a thought experiment…
pls be safe
A slight digression but perhaps relevant to this. I was quite surprised by Zakharova’s tone, which tells me that the RF Foreign Ministry is exhausted from their heroic attempts at civilized classic diplomacy:
Moscow Not Ruling Out Military Measures in Response to Missile Threats Arising from the West
https://sputniknews.com/military/202104051082543315-moscow-not-ruling-out-military-measures-in-response-to-missile-threats-arising-from-the-west/
So if Merkel and Macron give in to the imperial woke retards rather than push for Putin’s peace proposal (whatever that was up till last Thursday), could this become another point?
11. NATO Aegis Ashore and THAAD ABM sites receive some Russian hypersonic TLC.
Which would be pre-emptive self defence.
First mention by the Guardian. Pretty much as expected
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/eu-sounds-alarm-at-russian-troops-ukraine-border-moves
Are there any estimates as to how long it would still take until the completion of NordStream 2?
As in, how many weeks?
If war happens Moscow’s response must be multi-dimensional, and more pro-active.
Military:
*The Russian air force should destroy all the artillery, bases, heavy weapons, and large infantry/militia formations they can find. NATO units, as well as Igor Kolomoiski’s assets should also be targetted.
*Spetsnaz should hunt down and either destroy Nazi leadership members (with combined air+artillery strikes, and direct action missions,) or arrest them for war crimes trial at The Hague. (NOTE: even if The Hague court acquits them, KGB/GRU can always kill them later; and it will expose once and for all the fascist nature of the West.)
*All of Novorossia must be covered by S-400s.
*Provide enough support for locals to liberate territories up to Dniper river.
Economic:
*Russia must sanction all of Boeing and Airbus, regardless if they are just “innocent” civilian divisions, because they are members of the weapons companies supplying Ukraine.
*Russia should stop all rocket engine, titanium, & other critical exports to the West.
*For its oil exports Russia must ban direct payments in US dollars, Euros, and Pounds sterling. Prices should be listed in roubles and/or other currencies, but not USD or EUR.
*Sanctions against MasterCard, Visa, SWIFT, and other Western banks for financing Ukrainian fascists.
Political:
*Moscow must sanction Victoria Nulan, Antony Blinken, Chrystia Freeland, and other rabidly anti-Russian politicans from the West.
*If Moscow has not already done so, Moscow should completely evacuate its diplomats from Ukraine. Once complete, the Russian parliament can issue a formal declaration of war.
*Moscow should get both UN General Assembly, & Security Council to condemn EU, USA, Ukraine, & Nato. [NOTE: Moscow must continue to show it respects international law, even if FUKUS will veto security council resolutions.]
*Openly declare the Russian military has “Responsibility to Protect” Russian citizens up to Dneiper river.
*Activate CSTO to provide peacekeepers, to eventually be supplemented by UN peacekeepers.
*Expel more diplomats & “diplomats” from Five Eyes & EU countries.
Cultural:
*Large fines and/or sanctions against BBC, CNN, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, and other Western media companies for spreading hatred and hypocrisy throughout Russia.
*Tariffs and extra red tape against Netflix, Hulu, Disney, and others for fanning the flames of war by defaming Russian people.
Are we not in a position already that NATO observers will be actively participating if this gets hot. In much the same was as US observers are participating actively in the Yemen conflict. If the Donbass war is reignited these NATO observers will be at war and helping to kill Russian citizens in the Donbass. I don’t see how the RF walks back from that or deescalates.
The timing is suspicious.
‘Grabbing’ Donbass and/or Crimea is quite unlikely. More and more I get the idea that this is all about NS2.
It’s close to finishing, Merkels influence is wading (she already made one term too long), they are already ramming the Pipelaying ship with fishing boats, and some pathetic Polish sub (what was this sub going to do then against an economic project of another NATO-member, or is it this boring ‘sending a message’ again?) was also around.
‘Showing’ the RF as evil, crying foul against Germany, I’m not so sure whether that will work. We are not Americans.
Russia (or the SU then) delivers gas to Europe since the eighties of last century, without much trouble neglecting Ukraine stealing it. So all this fuzz about ‘leverage’ and all that jazz has no hold. Even in the Cold War trade worked.
The masks are off, this is all about money. The USA is using pirate methods to sell their ‘freedom molecules’, just like in Napoli you have to pay your ‘pizzo’ to the Camorra on order to get ‘protection’.
I read in many posts that the RF should do something with PR, showing the reality, marching mercenaries around. Do we really think that this will be broadcasted here in the West?
The problem I see is that there are too many options floating around. And I have not so much confidence in reality checks in the West. Decades ago it was the US military with crazy ideas and politicians stopping them, now I have the idea that it is the other way around. And that is not how responsibilities are supposed to function.
Dangerous times.
Cheers, Rob
Not to mention that recently, due to the cold winter in Europe, Russia just reported a 30% rise in gas delivered to Europe.
Which is nice income for Russia, along with consolidation in Europe of her position.
The US wants regime change in the RF, not an all-out war. Its dismemberment would save the empire by opening up enormous resources for plunder and would allow for the encirclement of China.
The game plan for that is always the same: destabilize the country politically/economically, support internal protests/riots, raise up an opposition “leader”, etc.
The provocations in the Ukraine are meant not to lead to war, but to create a no-win situation, whereby if it responds militarily it can be painted as the aggressor and loose world respect, or if it doesn’t it the government loses respect with a large segment of the Russian people who will think it weak and unable to defend its own people. This in an election year.
So, they want to calibrate the amount of provocation that causes the maximum amount of pain and turmoil internally, without causing an all-out assault in response. Then repeat this process in Syria, in Belarus, etc.
One comment about Saker’s point #10: Lavrov has explicitly ruled out cutting off energy supplies, so this seems unlikely.
A few more thoughts reading through all of these responses: I’m surprised by the number arguing for attacks on Nato ships etc. This would be suicide. Russia does not want to start WW3.
It also doesn’t want to take over the Ukraine, which needs complete rebuilding. I agree with Saker that the people in the east must liberate themselves, but they will be, and are, being helped with equipment and intelligence etc.
Many thanks to Saker for this forum, it’s a truly unique platform for discussion.
Let us all pray that all-out war does not come.
After WW2 the US could be the world’s dominant power by default
There was no other power capable of the same level of influence or even close to it
At the fall of the USSR, only Japan was close, but that was all based on technology and economics
So even though the US was getting weaker it had no challengers to its position
It could hide it
But with the rise of Russia and China and the EU
It can no longer maintain dominance by just being better, it has to handicap its rivals, to stop them getting better.
Problem is this has negative consequences on US influence, so they stay dominant but with dwindling influence,
Problem with that is the US is an “empire” of influence, that is its true strength,soft power
So US policy is a contradiction, dominance at the expense of influence, where the loss of influence affects the ability to dominate.
Russia took a chunk out of US influence with their Syria play.
The Ukraine is a attempt by US and EU to shore up influence by forcing Russias hand into a “barbaric” play
Thus attempting to destroy Russian influence at the expense of Ukraine.
I don’t think this update has been posted yet:
”Russia is deploying the 76th Guards division to Crimea. It is one of the most experienced and battle hardened units in the Russian military. Soldiers from the 76th participated in the 2014 invasion.”
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1379073803888828422
Russia is playing a game of poker with a player(US)
With a deck stacked heavilly in that players favour
The US can play strategies knowing that a losing hand is ultimately a winning hand
They play a game like they cannot lose, but its a game they can’t afford to lose
They only way they lose is at their own hand
They should never be confronted to make them lose at Russias hand
Russia has to play the game in a way that forces the US to make its own mistakes
Russia probably started getting back into the global politics game too early and they are a little underdone
They need time, but off course the US is trying not to give them that time
Would it be a possible strategy to let Ukr/NATO forces overrun LDR/DNR and partly Crimea to lure them on Russian soil where they would commit a few atrocities that could easily be made public and portray the attackers as what they are: aggressors?
On top of that they could be minced to pieces on Russian soil and Donbass could be once and for all liberated as an act of retaliation. After that a peacekeeping mission would be installed and infrastructure to support Crimea would be freed up (including the water canal).
Maybe that’s too far fetched and perfidious. But Russia defended itself like that already in the past.
As Guy from US pointed out above, the trap is a lose-lose game in an election year. The human cost of a baiting scenario to generate casus beli is political suicide, leading to a color revolution. Game over. Goodbye dignity. Hello some Yeltsin 2.0 puppet.
The second way is to go all out. It may lead to WW3 but IMHO the moneylending parasites behind the empire are death-averse so MAD is unlikely. RF losses Western street cred and market kudos, take her chances with the PRC, liberals and nationalists will squeal but hey it’s better than being completely isolated.
Here’s a third way: arm the republics to the teeth, send in PMCs without the regular Russian army, maintain plausible deniability. Heck, throw in some Iranian drones to counter backstabber Erdogan’s Bayraktars.
I’m not sure what the mood in the room is towards Igor Strelkov, but here’s his perspective:
“At the end of the day:
1. The war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable, but at the moment (in April), it is very likely;
2. For Russia and the Russian People, war “now” is preferable to war later;
3. The USA now will not fight for Ukraine with 99% probability;”
– Strelkov wrote in Telegram and Vkontakte.
https://southfront.org/war-between-russia-and-ukraine-is-inevitable-opinion/
Yes, you are actually right. Wrong timing for the move I outlined. I believe the third option you mentioned is the best feasible. That’s me judging from my office.
If Kiev (and Washington) want to involve Russia more directly my thoughts of worry turn to the Kerch Strait Bridge as a potential Achilles heel for a Kiev attack. It would be hard to defend along its whole length.
FWIW,
Galearis
Russia could schedule a test flight of their unlimited-range, nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile (Burevestnik). They could announce aerial “exclusion zones” which all aircraft are warned to avoid for the duration of a one-week testing period. One exclusion zone could be along but off-shore of the U.S. east coast where the leaders of the U.S. military and government go to work each day.
The last attacks on the DNR/LNR in 2015 showed that Russian strategists are quite capable of luring attacking Ukrozanis into a cauldron time and again. The Djebalzewe cauldron was a disaster for the attackers. Therefore, I think it is unlikely that the Ukronazis will take such a risk again. They are more likely to fire from the demarcation line, but will not venture into enemy territory themselves.
@JB on April 05, 2021
“Russia is playing a game of poker with a player(US)”
‘The only winning move is not to play’ applies in this real life war games situation. It looks like the meeting between Putin/Merkel/Macron recently may have forced that move, according to Alexander Mercouris
Paris-Berlin Oppose Ukrainian Offensive, Call on Kiev to De-Escalate
https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a/paris-berlin-oppose-ukrainian-offensive,:1
Hi Norwegian, that link looks correct but it does not work for me. Lets try again …
https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a/paris-berlin-oppose-ukrainian-offensive,:1
And also, the France/German statement that he reads out, is not linked. I cannot find the exact one, but here is a similar one:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-france-condemn-ukraine-escalation-call-for-restraint/a-57095476
Geez ,,, does not want to work.
Alternative, go to Odysee.com, search for AlexanderMercouris and it is the current one on there.
Remove the extra blanks in the link and it will work. I also try a HTML-link in the hope that it works better:
Paris-Berlin Oppose Ukrainian Offensive, Call on Kiev to De-Escalate
Many thanks to have given the opportunity to discuss about these threats of an open war against Donbass and perhaps Crimea.
Two main points appear to be scarcely present in the commentaries and they are of a crucial importance:
* First.. It is a civil war. It makes a big difference. Unless the army has taken the power itself, it is difficult for a power which has lost its support from the people, to use the army against the people. Hence the Kiev power can only be confident in the special forces and the forces of the right sector. Yes there is the trick linked to the bill that the Rada has just passed, calling this civil conflict a war with Russia. Perhaps it will work for a military action against Crimea, but not against the Donbass. And any military action engaged by Kiev is mainly aiming at obtaining the military support of the OTAN’s forces.
* Second There already had been a military engagment with the Donbass’s Republics. Because of the above arguments Kiev has lost this military confrontation. And the Minsk agreements had saved the Kiev regime from a much larger defeat.
In conclusion the odds are on military actions against Crimea. Russians must be very aware of this.
I trust the very shrewd personnalities in charge of Russia political and military sectors to adequatly deal with these military agressions. Leaving Kiev aside the video meeting between Putin and Merkel/Macron has certainly clarified the respective positions. Germany want Nord stream 2 and the USA have already lost on this topic. OTAN is just a facade in Europe. I don’t see the french military forces engaged against Russia for the sake of the Kiev failing regime.