Dear friends,
There is a lot of speculation about what the consolidated West (aka the AngloZionist Empire) will do to protect its Ukronazi proxies. Here are my, bulletpoint style ideas (in no particular order):
- The West has already decided that Russia is the aggressor and Banderastan the victim of the Russian aggression. Even if the Ukies launch a massive artillery and armor attack on the LDNR (or even Crimea), the West will claim with a straight face that the evil Russkies attacked the innocent Ukrainians.
- I do not expect any NATO country to actually commit forces to to attack the Russian forces. At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).
- However, the USA is not only weak, it is fantastically incompetent, ignorant and arrogant: a lot of high level western officials have declared that the USA/NATO will not “allow” Russia to threaten or attack the Ukraine. To me, this tells me that there are those who believe that if the US/NATO actually do engage Russian forces, Russia will “blink”, and cower down in fear. Clearly, these people have never read a history book.
- I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.
- The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia. They are missing the key point: Russia cannot and will not retreat further, she won’t meekly declare that the Donbass or Crimea belong to the Nazi regime in Kiev. Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.
- The Kremlin fully understands that the role of Poland in the NATO pact is one of a small but very loud attack dog: if the Poles really move into western Ukraine then this will only be if the US tells them to do so. There is a saying in Russian “Поляки не вояки” meaning “the Poles ain’t no soldiers”: they always and only attack when their enemy of the moment is weak and disorganized (that is why Churchill called Poland the “greedy hyena of Europe”). However, I fully expect Polish (and US, UK) “advisors” to be assisting the Ukronazi forces during their attack on the LDNR. As for the supposed Russia’s fellow Orthodox “brothers” like Bulgaria or Romania, they will do what they always did in the past: join any anti-Russian coalition. The good news is that their militaries are as bad as the Polish one (ready for parades, not ready for real warfare). Also, the Black Sea is, in military terms, a “Russian lake”. So these small countries will huff and puff, but won’t do anything stupid.
- Propaganda wise, it is clear that irrespective of what Russia decides to do, she will be completely demonized. The current level of anti-Russian hatred in the West is now equal to, or even higher, than before the Nazi attack on Russia during WWII. Check out the following illustrations of this reality:
The US elites totally in agreement about Russia which they now want to contain and then destroy. As for the US puppet-states in the EU, they have zero personal agency. So what would be the goals of the “Biden” Admin?
- Create a clash between Russia and the EU which would give meaning to NATO, justify the deployment of more US forces in Europe which, in turn, will further strengthen the already strong US grip on the EU’s collective throat.
- By crashing NS2 (which will happen as soon as the conflict goes “hot” in the Donbass), the US will make the EU not only far more dependent on the US, but also much less competitive: instead of buying cheap high quality gas from Russia, the EU will purchase the more expensive and worse quality gas from the US.
- Armament programs will go through the roof and the US MIC will make a fortune (by selling grotesquely overpriced) weapons to itself and to its European “allies”.
So the big questions are:
- Can Russia deter the US by reacting below the threshold of an open military clash? My personal reply is that it is still possible but, sadly, this is becoming less and less likely with every passing day.
- Does that mean that this conflict can turn into WWIII with nukes and all? My personal reply is that that this scenario is becoming more and more likely with every passing day.
Bottom line: thank you again, “Biden” -voting Dem doubleplusgoodthinkers! Thanks to you only 100+ days into the new admin we are back on the edge of a nuclear precipice! In the words of Putin “you did not listen to us then, listen to us now!”. But, of course you won’t. Nothing short of a nuclear mushroom will wake you up from your delusions… If that happens, only blame yourselves!
So these are my thoughts for the day.
Now I invite you to share yours!
Kind regards
The Saker
I agree Saker; It is a great way for the Empire to stop the Russian gas from getting into Germany. If they can use the Ukraine to stop Nord Stream how could they possibly resist the golden opportunity. I also suspect that Biden and co have such a private financial stake in the Ukraine that they are compelled by that logic to push the Ukrainian provocation as far as they can get away with. From their point of view what do they have to lose?
So men/women in DC in power and authority who think they are women/men because they conceive it to be so in their minds and say it out loud, make it true? So if they – these same decision makers – think and believe the “damn russkies” are fat, vodka drinking incompetents who live in a gas station with nukes, the US armed forces will enjoy a cake walk?
But just looking at the US population… I see a significant (most?) US citizens are obese, Coke-drinking Twinkie-gorging fat bodies.
And it clearly seems the US policymakers hate the good old boys who make up the tip of the spear and could actually fight or put up a good fight. Once the tip is gone, what is left?
It’s really smart, cause North Stream 2 would be stopped by sanctions, while the regular flow via Ukrainian pipeline will be stopped by war.
Snow Leopard
The fact that Biden and co. have financial interests in Ukraine is of no importance, as Biden is nothing but a stooge, who was installed in the White House to instigate neocon foreign policies. What is happening in the Donbass is what I expected to happen, all the more so since in September we shall have Parliamentary elections in Russia. The aim of NATO and Washington is to have Kiev attack the Donbass, get Russia involved and as a “repercussion” see Russian liberals installed in the Russian Parliament. Nothing but laughable wishful thinking.
And yes, “the biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia”. Western politicians are victims of their own propaganda, thinking Russia is “inferior” in everything, from high tech to economic development. When it comes to propaganda, Western centers of power must be using experts in World War One propaganda, as its so infantile and unconvincing, the above posted cartoons proving the point. The chief danger is the belief that Western military high tech is “superior” to Russian, and that Russia cannot afford a war in the Donbass, as it would lose trade with the West, forgetting the amount of trade Russia is doing with China and others.
In case of an attack against the Donbass, the chief question is how Western Europe will react, both in the short term and in the long term. I don’t think anybody can give a concrete answer, especially if the Nord Stream – 2 gas pipeline is terminated at Washington’s demand, as this would lead to economic repercussions.
Will Europe (East and West) acquiesce to become Washington colony, more than it is now thanks to the banker controlled EU ? This remains to be seen. There is one point that Washington keeps forgetting, and that is that Europe has been a victim of two world wars and there is no mood for World War Three. Any additional American imperial arrogance may well see the dissipation of both the EU and NATO.
Should remind the audiance that EU is a unelected body, a corporation like, which is not a country or state but has in the past called itself “the ruler of the European Nations”. It is all IMO illegal.
The Elite have only installed themselves as such.
IMO the socalled West through the years have tried to humiliated and ridiculed Russian’s President, his politics, his peace initiatives, his initiative to have constructive talks over ideas how to work together in a peace and harmony and the Russian people.
What Russia IMO did not realise these ideas and initiatives are dirty words in the West. A West ruled by Deep State, Banksters, corrupt CEOs, corrupt military and … with worldwide pedophile- and humantraffick companies to run. They have no intent to give that up, for thru these companies the CABAL controls 60 – 70% of world politicians and governments. And through these dark methods oppressing the sheeple for their profits.
But Russian “woke up”. The West is deeply corrupt.
Thanks to Russia the world has at least one strong leader and that is Mr. Putin, President of the Russian Federation. He and the Russian People know what oppression and suffering is. They experienced it for so long.
The President promissed the Russian people: It happened once but will never occur again.
These words should suffice directed to the corrupt West to hold its horses and start realising they try to do.
Mr Putin and Russia are the final hope to free Europe from the Dark Forces. That is my conclusion.
The European politicans have no spine, only interested in their own wellbeing and the rest is not their beer. Let the people eat cake.
I believe therefore, Mr Steltenbein and his boyscout army better turn 180 degrees and go homewards. And at home they better start dismantle the NATO Ltd. Give all the saloon generals and admirals and the rest of the cannon fodder a good pension and close shop.
Without a shot and not one yound boy or girl killed for “the honor of the CEOs of NATO” while they followed orders declared by their boss The Banksters.
Go Home! Be wise, make no war, make peace. There is no shame to refuse making war.
Unfortunately the whole of your last sentence is not in their lexicon. No wisdom, no honor, no shame and no sense.
It is said President Putin is a moderate and the West is desperate to remove him, goodness knows why – however the quote about being careful what you wish for should be brought to mind. We are surrounded by dangerous idiots, and I’m referring to those in the West who seriously endanger all of our lives. Isn’t it time we thought seriously about removing them from office using whatever means available?
The problem with America and there are many, is they have never suffered war on their own lands. They have never had bombs reigning down on their houses – perhaps its time they did and they may well stop instigating wars in other countries.
To the young readers of the Saker blog.
People need to understand that the Western population (NATO) has been put under Lock Down.
This is a National emergency situation where our Constitution and Human rights can lawfully be violated by our governments.
Thus far:
Our rights to free assembly have been canceled. You can’t assemble to demonstrate against war
Our rights to free Speech have been canceled. You can’t publically criticize governmental warmongers.
Our rights to free movement and travel have been canceled. You can’t leave. You are under lock down.
The Lock Down is ordered by the Global Elite, because they are losing accept of the western population from the decade long failed economic, military, and migration policies.
These policies have been executed by their Fascist global network of Politicians, Civil Servants, Health workers, Military personnel, Police officers, Judges, Company CEOs, and most of all by Bankers.
The western population no longer trusts their own governments, Health system, News Media, Police, Judicial system, and Military as it has been infiltrated by people operating as de-facto Agent for the Global Elite, and not as servant of the population who elected them.
NATO Nations are de-facto under Fascist rule.
Just like the Germans were during the NAZI rule.
Fascism is when state officials and Private Corporations conspire to plunder their own population, and finally use the younger generations as soldiers, to enslave even more Nations to the Global Elite.
We are thus in a very dangerous situation, on that in modern history has led to 2 world wars.
The current NATO Neo-NAZI warmongering against Russia is risking to start a 3rd World War.
This is pure intentional by the Global Elite. They want war and destruction.
Why??
First of all because it removes the public focus away from the coming economic hardship caused by the failed policies executed by Global Elite Agents.
Secondly because when the war is over, every waring Nation will be indebted to the Global Elite, in order to be able to rebuild their Nation.
After WWII, humanity failed to clean house.
We let the Fascist network survive behind both the Iron curtain and especially in the US.
Today survival of humanity depends on executing the global Elite and their global network of Agents, or face eradication by nuclear war.
Execution is what the Global Elite and their agents fear the most. That is why we are under lock down.
The Saker asked: What will the Empire do to support the Ukronazis?
Answer: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
I am in Kakanada and I agree with you fully – we are in a state of a fascist lockdown.
As someone who comes from the exact spot on the map above marked as Isengard (who has lived most of his life in JUSSA/JUK and Kakanada) – I can tell you it’s most definitely these 3 shitholes of fraud which form the modern day MORDOR.
No place on earth comes even close
Greetings from TURDeau’s depressing, ugly, cold gulag.
I feel like that kid from that move The SHINING – just after Justin TURD eau told me he really loves me and would never hurt me…
Getting ready to start running through the kitchen as that kid did in the movie – hoping for the similar outcome
Jack Nicholson in that movie is a great metaphor for our Psychocracy – and we are that child
More and more Americans, not yet enough and not yet properly organized, are beginning to at least apprehend, if not fully comprehend, that the enemies of the American people are also the enemies of the Russian people. Time seems to be against a critical mass of Americans awakening from the thrall and taking the action necessary to thwart the evil which is about to be unleashed in our name. It is my prayer that our Lord will have mercy and stay the hand of evil which seems about to act!
Servants get a worst punishment then their masters. Just as complicit.
If that’s our only hope then we can forget hope. Millions of Americans were out on the streets in 2003 demanding that we not destroy Iraq, and that achieved nothing.
Alexander Mercouris reported this morning that a French-German statement was put out calling for Ukraine to deescalate. Also, he reported that Russian and American military chief of staffs were in conversation. His reports were hopeful, but I do not think we are out of the woods yet.
WWIII is very very unlikely. Also i think the same and Mercouris is almost always spot on. I think the furthest they (NATO) will do is trying to cancel NS2, all this thing is only needed for tightening the US grip of Europe. Not less and not more. As some European countries got kinda out of the line. So they wont to tighten it again.
Mercouris is almost always spot on
Hardly. He also completely misses the military aspects of this crisis. Makes for good clickbaiting and poor analyses…
Since last spring I must have heard him say NS2 will be completed in a few weeks at least 5 times. It was impossible because they still needed a permit to work in Danish waters which the got a a month or so back. Plus Russian ships aren’t capable of laying pipe nearly as fast as Allseas. He’s knowledgeable no doubt but not always practical.
Couldn’t have said it better myself. It’s like he thinks if says it enough it won’t happen. Some people don’t live in the real world. Events like this have a momentum all their own.
Btw Saker thanks for keeping all of us informed.
Saker
Yes perhaps Mercouris is not fully aware of the military aspects… But about Nord stream 2 the analyses usually completly miss the big energy problem of Germany because of the complete failure of their “energiewende”. Apart from very bad coal, natural gaz is the only alternative to nuclear energy… NS2 is vital for Germany not to Russia.
German people is very proud. The image of Germany being a complete puppet of the USA is false.
Of course there is a “facade”, Navalny.. but under the table there are political exchanges between Germany and Russia and even with China. Germany has abruptly foiled the attempts of Macron and the european parliament to stop NS2. I am quite certain that during the recent video meeting between Putin, Merkel and Macron, VVP has been conforted that there will be no military engagments of France and Germany in case of a military conflict about Donbass or Crimea. I also guess that Tukey will not be a direct actor on the military field.
So the balance of military forces is largely in favour of Russia. I think that Russia is waiting for the first move, against Crimea in my opinion, and has prepared all the options.
I would be curious Saker, if you could elaborate on what Mercouris is missing in this conflict. I know you have quoted him before. His channel and your blogs are among my daily reading. Thank You
Regarding this situation Mercouris have been utterly naive. He didn´t get the point at all. What Frau Merkel is saying is not the most important thing. The Facts on the ground says it all. Look don´t listen. The coming Days are Important for the futurum of Europe.
Mercouris has changed his tune somewhat today– in a video with Alex Christoforou he acknowledged that a narrative of ‘danger from Russia’ was being put together by the Empire and that this [conflict] was “absolutely possible and that’s not an issue to be dismissed”…
Mercouris bases his analyses only on official statements, not actually what is happening on the ground.
But are official statements coming out of the Western capitals truthful & sincere?
The funeral of the 5 yr old boy killed by the putschist drone, was held today.
One of my VK lady friends, as expressed in her remarks… “I will never understand. As long as I live, I will never understand! Whoever was controlling the drone must have known it was just a little child!”
Of course, she does not understand!
She does not understand that the putchists have been brainwashed into the same mindset as their NAZI forebears…. into an irrational hatred of Slavs… and Russians in particular. She does not understand the blatant racism behind NATO putting these devil incarnates in power…
BUT…..
Until decision makers in Russia come to grips with that irrational hatred… spawned in Whitehall…. that’s my view the racism of both the US and UK originates in the UK upper class…. and grown in the petri dish of US think tank dom…. financed by MI6/CIA….
AND…..
Realize there is no accomodation to it….. NONE.!!
More kids will die in the FSU in NATO’s mad scramble for the energy resources of Eur-Asia…
INDY
“The funeral of the 5 yr old boy killed by the putschist drone, was held today.” His mother is still at the hospital.
Did the Western media reported this attack on civilians? To date I have seen nothing, not a word,…
On the other hand every day I have an article about Navalny, his coughing, sneezing, etc etc
German media cited the BND, that approx. 50000 people died in the (punishment) war actions of Nazistan in Malorussia. And only in the context of “look at evil Mordor’s/Putin’s actions”; let’s unite in the 4th Reich and live some Drang nach Osten.
They sometimes report on the civilian disaster in Syria and Yemen. Sometimes personal stories of children living in that hell.
I haven’t encountered any story on DNR and LNR children.
It’s not about the usual (civil – human anguish) war porn. They simply don’t recognize Russians as humans.
Disgusting filth
Exactly! The UK is the prime mover. “Globalism” is the program the UK runs to take over the US – and they have done so. Trump was the last resistance to this project. The UK deserves a reality check from Russia above all others.
See my other comment below.
I’ve read your comment twice as I couldn’t believe what you were saying and I cannot understand how you arrived at that opinion. The UK is commonly known is America’s poodle. Where you go we follow, so let me disabuse you of the UK being the prime mover.
Should the Russians give up NS2 to avoid war?
On the one hand, if they did, it would help the Russians in the long term. The United States simply cannot make good on the LNG promises. The fracking industry is in a state of collapse as I type. The LNG would show up for a year at the most – probably not even that. Then it would be gone. German industry would suffer greatly and Germany might very well start on the long road of disengaging the United States.
On the other hand, if the United States gets away with this, what might they do next?
That is frightening to contemplate.
Even worse, there is no one in Washington with whom to negotiate over giving up NS 2. It appears that the President’s office, the State Department, the Military and the Intelligence communities all developed their own agendas long ago- and they don’t necessarily coincide.
And even if you could get an agreement – who is to say that they comply with it. Their history is that agreements are not really agreements. They are simply springboards to demanding more concessions.
But what is the option?
War in Ukraine could escalate fast.
I can just see some crazies in Washington demanding that Biden declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine and Donbass.
Yes.They are that crazy and reckless. Hilary Clinton wanted to do that in Syria. She wanted to declare a no-fly zone over a country that hosted a Russian air base.
They are that crazy.
And they don’t understand that Russia would not just roll over.
This is a very dangerous situation.
Putin has to come up with a masterstroke – like did with Crimea.
I just don’t know what it might be.
The Russians don’t need to give up NS2. They will wait for Germany to do it, thus then being able to sue them for hundreds of billions of dollars for breach of contract. Losing NS2 is not in effect a big deal for the Russians, yes it’s inconvenient and short term trouble but the amount of business in Eurasia is so much more than Europe that it will be easy to make up the loss within a couple of years. I can’t see Germany doing it, if you had to be dependent on someone for energy who would you rather do business with, your neighbours the Russians or the mentally unstable ponzi scammers in the US? Plus using US shale gas is incredibly environmentally unfriendly, its dirty, it needs processing and you have to transport it half way round the world in dirty diesel using ships. The Europeans and especially the Germans are trying to con the public into thinking that they’re green so it makes no sense on any level to go with the Americans. Germany and Russia, generally have good relations, especially on a business level, however I detect Washingtons hand in promoting factions within the German Govt, hence the Navalny Op. I also think the Greens in Germany are infiltrated and somewhat co-opted by the US, if they get into power they will stop NS2 so I think plenty of money is being poured into that possibility. The Europeans would have to be soft in the head to realign with the sinking ship that is the US but then all evidence is pointing to the fact that they are in fact utterly rudderless and out of their depth in the present situation and without any plan, so it is possible they will push the NATO boat out again, for one last voyage into oblivion..
No, they’re not as quick as Allseas but they’re getting more efficient every day,,
Don’t forget Nord stream 1 !! Russia is already supplying a lot of gaz to the EU !
Getting supply from somewhere else ( US, Quatar,..) might be difficult !!?
The french asked for 50% more for this year !
Just a thought .
Mike from Jersey
“Should the Russians give up NS2 to avoid war” ? The point is that Germany, and Western Europe, cannot give up on NS2, as they would see their import costs of gas rise by 100 %.
“import costs of gas rise by 100 %”
This is very unlikely.
The price of the gas is actually independent of the source. It is pretty much similar to the price of the gold, it depends on the purity and not on the mine or the company that purify it.
If NS2 is not built some increase of spot gas price is to be expected in the EU but not nearly to 100%.
Even capacity of the NS2 is just a fraction of the total EU gas consumption and existing gas pipeline in Ukraine can still be used instead.
Shale gas is more expensive to extract, compress and transport but this only influence profit levels and not the end-price (in larger degree).
Russia can also compete with its LNG that is cheaper to produce and transport to EU that from US or Qatar which is currently the largest supplier to EU.
I disagree. There is definitely a significant difference between the price of LNG and that of piped natural gas. They are two different markets.
“NG and that of piped natural gas. They are two different markets.”
Please provide the link to those separate markets.
These are mine:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/commoditysummary/symbol-NATURALGAS.cms
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
I don’t claim that you can’t buy LNG separately with different price but on the global market there is just one gas commodity: Natural gas without any reference to the source.
NLG is stored in the same stores as piped gas when off-loaded and from there sold just as Natural gas.
My comparison with gold was somewhat incorrect regarding transport. A Much better comparison is with (crude) oil that is transported by pipeline or tanker. On market, you have no distinction how oil is transported.
Then you can have short and long term contracts for different amount and then different prices, but it is basically independent of the transport kind.
Though comparison with (crude) oil is less accurate because you have market for different types of oil and special refineries that can process only certain types of oil while gas market is more unified.
Are they – the Americans – crazy, or do they want the world to just think that they are crazy!? Moot point. Do they accept that a nuclear exchange will be destructive to the whole northern hemisphere: do they believe that they can somehow avoid total annihilation which would be the inevitable outcome of such an exchange. Of course they don’t. If that was going to happen it would have happened during the period where they had complete nuclear superiority, which they no longer have today. A war on Russia would be suicidal; they know it, Russia knows it, and the rest of the world knows it.
The alternative seems to be some sort of a truce. A new balance of power arrangement whereby each state was based upon the principles of non-aggression and respect for other various states and spheres of influence and diplomacy. The United States and its minions – with the exception of the little muck-rating Polish head cases – are aware and it is beginning to sink in the the days of the more rational players in the Washington beltway. The choice is quite simple. Diplomacy or extinction.
Donald Duck,
You wrote:
It’s certainly been my observation that Murica doesn’t make deals or truces that are not fully to their advantage. The best analogy I’ve seen is they’re like a monkey with a hand grenade. You can’t reason with it and it’s dangerous.
@DD: “…they accept that a nuclear exchange will be destructive to the whole northern hemisphere: do they believe that they can somehow avoid total annihilation… Of course they don’t.”
On the contrary, I think “they” (the Anglo Zio Capitalist Leaders) really do believe they can escape annihilation of the Northern hemisphere: for instance, both the Bush crime family and Netanyahoo’s racist regime are buying property in the Southern hemisphere. As far South as they can get: Patagonia and New Zealand are current favourites for purchase of Bolt-hole Land to escape a nuked North.
D Duck,
You said: “The United States and its minions – with the exception of the little muck-rating Polish head cases – are aware and it is beginning to sink in the the days of the more rational players in the Washington beltway. The choice is quite simple. Diplomacy or extinction.”
Really??? Who in Washington DC – at least who in a position of power – is being rational about Russia, and China for that matter? And where is this growing sense of the need for diplomacy (diplomacy as it is traditionally defined, not the US State Department version of it (“our way or the Hiway”)?
Thank you saner for your usual constructive submission. My concern is whether Russia really prepared for military showdown with empire. What role will Turkey likely play? Thanks
Zero. Turkey is very weak right now due to the numerous purges of pro-Gulen elements in the Turkish military.
Turkey is very weak both economically and militarily but is still one to watch for two reasons:
1. Erdogan controls the jihadi proxies financed by Qatar. Yesterday Zelensky flew to Qatar and April 12th he will meet Erdogan. Is he going to discuss the transfer of jihadist from Libya/Syria/ Azerbaijan to fight in Ukraine?
2. Turkey controls the straits to the Black Sea. Erdogan has mulled pulling out of the Montreux Convention which limits the militarisation of the Black Sea. https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/admirals-declaration-features-coup-implications-erdogan/news
(Right now, unless Turkey opens the floodgates, non-littoral members are allowed a certain number of ships for a limited stay only.)
Serbian Girl
“Is he going to discuss the transfer of jihadist from Libya/Syria/ Azerbaijan to fight in Ukraine” ? If Zelensky did that, then it would be the most stupid thing he did, apart from attacking the Donbass. Imagine what the repercussions would be in both Ukraine and Russia if Jihadists all of a sudden started appearing. Also, their fighting contribution in a conventional war would be limited, as they are used to guerrilla type warfare, and not to conventional warfare on flat geographical terrain.
Serbian Girl,
I too am intrigued by the Zelensky and large Ukrainian entourage to Qatar April 5.
From a hodgepodge of reports, some points that I noted to,support our joint supposition that jihadis may be introduced into the equation.
* direct flights Kiev ~Doha
* visa free travel between them
* Qatar lease or acquire a Black Sea port.
Other agreements signed:
* Qatar to supply LNG
* Qatar- Agriculture “food security” and access to extremely fertile Ukrainian chernozems (soil)
* Strengthen military/ defence ties (hmm, that’s an interesting way to spell jihardi)
* Ukraine “involvement” in contracts pre World Cup 2022. (nice little backhanders back and forth, methinks)
* There’s more… everyone here has a search engine of choice)
Here’s one link: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3221610-ukraine-qatar-sign-memorandum-on-cooperation-in-oil-and-gas-sector.html
Extract:
“The two states intend to develop cooperation in the areas of investments from Qatar in gas exploration and production in Ukraine, as well as LNG from Qatar to Ukraine.”
Don’t really think Qatar will get involved for there’s really nothing in it for them Russia on good terms with all the Mid-East countries if the Ukraine wanted anything it would be some sort of loan to keep them floating for much if not most of their funding has been cut off, Just can’t see Qatar getting involved against Russia with any terrorist for the Russian have a very long memory and sooner or later they would receive the pay back but then again follow the money..
it’s not simply russia…bt china, iran, hezbollah
In an earlier posting on this Blog i also recall mention that the Ukraine parliament voted to allow serving military to wear beards…that could allude to allowing the use of ISIS members to ‘assist’ in the Ukraine military adventures?
Saker is exactly right.
Further, Turkey’s arms industry overseer just got sanctioned by the US and Erdogan has renewed opposition from ‘retired’ naval bigwigs.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202104051082547831-erdogan-says-statement-by-former-admirals-about-montreux-convention-has-implications-of-coup/
https://sputniknews.com/us/202104051082549439-us-sanctions-turkeys-presidency-of-defense-industries-over-ties-to-russias-defense-intel-sector/
Turkey is currently having a coup’ of problems at home. If they get rid of Erdogan soon, then Turkey is joining the fray. On the side of NATO, of course.
I think you nailed it with your three goals points Saker. Hot up the war between Russia and the UkroNazis (“let’s you and him fight”) then withdraw US and NATO military support entirely (“for the interests of world peace,” or some such made-up nonsense) and use the “Russian aggression” for propaganda purposes thereafter to support your three aforementioned goals: strengthen NATO, destroy NS2, and expand the US MIC money machine even further.
Ukraine is totally expendable to Biden and the US, and having now exhausted its purpose, can be safely abandoned to the dogs of war as all US proxies eventually are. In so doing they make Putin commit resources and show capabilities that they hope will weaken him in the longer term and drive a further wedge between Russia and the EU. At this point, that’s probably the best outcome the US can hope for.
It might be better if the Russians didn’t focus so much on the military. Despite the propaganda I think few of those people actually want to fight. It would be better if the Russians eliminated those behind the politicians, who keep pushing them into war. All the media owners and talking heads, the top banksters and the think tankers would be quite vulnerable. If a few thousand (including the Ukrainian crooks hiding abroad) suddenly fell victims to local criminals, or drug overdoses or hit and run drivers etc, that would be diplomatically deniable and a lot cheaper than even a small and victorious war.
Yes, that has been on my mind for many years. Just ‘disappear’ the Soros’es, the Gates’, the WEF pigs like Schwab, and why not the important Anglo-zio thinktankers and while at it rich planners like the Bilderbergers? Good ridance, and the world would definitely be a better place!
It is only a matter of time before someone uses a small cheap drone to drop a grenade on an oligarch such as the ones you mentioned. I suspect the bodyguards of all remaining oligarchs would ask for a big raise in consequence. :)
I watched the last Alexander Mercouris video from the Duran.
He says Paris and Berlin have published a join satement in which they call on ukrane to de-escalate and to go back to the minsk agreement.
If it’s true it would say France and Germany do not want to go to war with Russia for the nazis in power in ukraine.
We are not in 2008 when the war in georgia happened. Now the level of russophobia in the western empire is at insane levels. Western elites hate Russia.
This is why a war in ukraine can escalate quickly to become a new world war. I hope the French and the German are seeing the danger. Unfortunately it’s not like the French and the German have great capabilities to influence the US or nato. Just look at what happened to the jcpoa after trump s withdrawal despite all the statements in support of the jcpoa the French and the German did.
I remind you that EU countries also signed the agreement between Yanukovich and the opposition.
It lasted exactly one day.
Paying attention to words in case of crisis is much less important than to focus on actual actions.
BTW – the LDNR leaders say that a war is about 90% likely.
Thank you for your reply.
I think the same war is highly likely. And I do not nor trust anything from the EU.
But last year after the US killed General Soleimani we were also saying war was highly likely. Instead we got a soft landing.
I still hope that outcome is possible.
They refused to go to war with Iran. Logically they should also refuse to go to war with Russia.
Laurent was Iran that refused to go to war. Trump admin praised themselves for killing Soleimani. Same with Russia. They shut down a Russian jet, they killed 5 Russian diplomats, sanctioning and demonizing them like never seen before in world diplomatic history. The level of demonization is equal to Nazi Germany during the war. Diplomatic relations are frozen. The diplomatic channels are closed. Politically they are loudly yelling “Putin is a killer”. The only channels of communication that they are using are at the military level. I don’t know how this situation will be normalized any time soon. Imagine a Russian offensive on Donbas or Lugansk. This will go worst rather than better. Europe better be (and apparently is) prepared.
Europe is prepared for nothing. They will faceplant their they to an absurd “union”, using every faceplant on their way to centralize. Ukraine, migrants, debt – doesn’t matter. Their motto: Don’t let a good crisis go to waste. You’ll see, they will use the pandemic and any Ukraine war to further their demonic “union”. If they proceed fast, Eastern Europe will drop off (Czech Republic is an open question). The US is in a cultural revolution right now, I think the EU is about to start something similar. Polls show that despite the EU becoming unpopular, most like the integration (free movement, “rights” etc.). The full-scale destruction of the family as the basic unit of a nation state has been in full force; womenism – LGBT+++ism is in full force. The retardation is phenomenal. Old school Liberals like Max Otte say that about 80% of traditional Germany is gone. I concur.
An peculiar occurrence, worthy of analyses, is that almost all national military industry projects fail, but supra-national ones somehow, despite all the incompetence, make it to the finish line (f.e. A400M, Eurofighter…).
I disagree. Iran launched 22 missiles on 2 us bases in irak. If the US wanted to escalate they could have done it easily: Iran attacked us now it’s war. They refused to do that.
Laurent, yes you’re right. Iranians launched 22 missiles on 2 US bases in Iraq. But what damage did they manage to accomplish? In my optic that was a pure PR operation. The US killed an iconic commander, and Iran’s retaliation was weak enough not to provoke the US Army and also to relax tensions inside the country.
Is there any way the US/NATO can climb out of the tree they’re in now, should they suddenly come to their senses? They appear to be climbing down on JCPOA, to some degree, by looking for a face-saving gesture from Iran. The neocons seem to see this time as their “now or never” event, meaning they find a way to destroy the Russia-China-Iran axis or they will be revealed to all to be just another England. They are losing the dollar very quickly now.
Mercouris is wrong on France and Germany. He thinks they have agency. They don’t. They’re all talk and no action. In the end they will roll over. They’re vassals. Period
You were right and mercouris was wrong (like I was thinking).
Ukraine chose to ignore the French and German join statement and pulled out of Minsk peace talks: Kiev refuses to meet Russia & OSCE in Belarusian capital. Article from RT.
Now Ukraine is officially withdrawing from the minsk agreements.
Negociations are officially terminated.
We are one step closer to war
The agreement signed by the Eurogagas didn’t mean much indeed. Now Minsk agreement was between Kiev and the republics, but was also signed (as a guarantor. Mod.) by Russia, and that’s a big difference.
Even if that’s not of very much importance that France and Germany also signed it (as guarantors. Mod.). It just gives some more legitimacy to Russia to intervene if Minsk is violated.
Removed. Can we stop the talk about another author at another site and focus on what Saker has asked to discuss. Mod.
Otherwise I think nothing will happen even less anything nuclear, nobody wants to fight for third world ukrainistan, even ukrainians who are tired of 7 years of war and economical destruction.
One or possibly main aim is to stop NS2, US uses this as a chip to blackmail Russia, in this aspect it is almost disgusting how Germany (the main beneficiary of NS2) has been behaving showing 2-3-4 faces. I think the Turks wich are much poorer than Germany show more independency from the US. Germany puts itsel like the innocent victim of Russian blackmail, relly disgusting. If the situation gets worst Russia may have to act as if NS2 never existed then depending the behavior of the ukros keep using this pipelines ie most probably have to cut altogether. The US is despair but is a pity that the EU does not act like an independant entity anymore.
This is the real test. We will see who the real paper tiger is. Will the russian leadership and army rise up to the challenge or falter in a meek display and bow to Macron/Merkel EU?
I would call a win for EU if:
1. NATO is established in the UKRAINE.
2. LDNR status remains in limbo.
You claim that the EU politicians are misreading the russian history and capabilities. I think they don’t care. As long as russia is just barking loudly and only posturing then it is no more than a nuisance.
There is nothing to explain to the electorate and nothing worthy of news.
“I would call a win for EU if:
…
2. LDNR status remains in limbo.”
Why? DLNR do not have to consolidate its pseudo-independence or joining Russia. The statu-quo plays against Ukraine, which either gets a sound victory over the Donbas or they face significant challenges to keep the whole country together.
If 1. NATO is established in the UKRAINE then the options get very bad for Russia and LDNR. Russia won’t be able to directly attack a NATO country. It will have NATO military installations near it border. It will be able to only support LDNR’s efforts but not take part in them openly. LDNR will be as now under constant threat of aggression only worse from an emboldened UKRAINE. What are the prospects for LDNR longterm being part of a country that torments them and hoping to join Russia who is only lukewarm to that idea? Ukrainian leadership will be replaced by a more reasonable leadership perhaps but that may take a long time. LDNR may just fold and decide they have had enough and accept a humiliating arrangement under NATO guarantees.
If you can find it, watch “a snipers war”, it will tell you what you must know about fighting Russians, and the Orsis 5000. There is hope with a scope.
I think others have mentioned this previously in some of the earlier threads.
As long as LDNR territory remains in dispute, or the conflict between the separatists and the Kiev regime continues, there is no way for Ukraine to be accepted into NATO.
This assumes that NATO will obey its own rules. A reckless assumption.
The Donbas will never relent to the Nazis.
Also, if there is no war in the coming days, there eventually will be. NATO will keep pushing a little here and a little there in their quest to establish a permanent presence in Ukraine near the Russian border – it is their neverending wet dream. Russia will never allow that. So if the Russians don’t invade now, they most certainly will at the first real sign of NATO pushing into Ukraine.
I feel that we are in the middle of WW3 now, mostly economic warfare being waged with some proxy battles. Ukraine, just being one of many.
The following is a excerpt from a recently posted article of Pepe Escobar that you brought to us yesterday I believe.
/how-eurasia-will-be-interconnected/
(As it stands, Russia is very much focused on limitless possibilities in Southwest Asia, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear in the 10th Middle East conference at the Valdai club. The Hegemon’s treats on multiple fronts – Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, Nord Stream 2 – pale in comparison.)
I have seen something similar authored by Smoothie at Reminiscence of the Future and believe Russia is mainly still, against all the bullshit thrown at it working on NS2 mostly due to honor. They signed the contracts, gave their word and will see it done short of war. As many people have said Russia’s future is in the east, the west isn’t worth talking to.
Biden’s corrupt kid is being exposed and maybe about to be thrown to the NWO alligator pit as a propitiatory offering so Daddy is all “in” for anything to obfuscate, distract, and defer. A big dust-up with Russia will give the neocons an excuse to make martial law America real—in California, it would only take a nudge.
It appears that they think this is win-win for them. Ukraine has become a strain to say nothing of a stain on their
watch. And watching Russia become stronger and stronger really gripes them to no end. They have been foiled in the Mid East because of Russia and now with Russia and China allied they have little wiggle room to extract concessions from the Far East. The neocon think tanks have this obsessive idea that Russia can be “bled” again.
The way they look at it, they have no choice. Prepare for a division of the world into spheres of influence again and Titanium curtains galore and nasty military action and mega more loss of civil liberties. Hopefully, it will be quick and decisive conflict–a united Ukraine will never rise from the ashes. And that will be a relatively good thing sadly . And like they are so fond of saying: Everything is on the table.
Dear Saker, I wish I would write those lines and points myself. I couldn’t agree more. Although I belong to a NATO nation, whose premise is securing the bloc members, I am really afraid for my fellow countrymen and my family because of the events that are unfolding so far which are not so new. The crazy, arrogant, inglorious bastard on the west, sooner or later will clash with Russia. We have no say in that. I find more disturbing the grasp on russophobia propaganda in the individual plan. My friends, my relatives laugh and share the memes you posted here. I don’t know what to say to them. I have tried many many times to bring some arguments out of the BigBrother domain, but no success. I don’t know. It seems like we are doomed. I don’t see a way out. I only hope that they don’t enlist me at the times when the hell will unfold. May God be with us.
Same here
To strike first, one way is psychological. Use a nuclear weapon to assure the Ukies before they attack that no weapon is sheathed and their NATO friends will stay in their bases far, far away.
So let’s look at a “demonstration” nuclear use:
It is the tactic of North Korea.
It works.
Russia’s ultimate strategic doctrine is to use nukes. So, why not use one?
Why? Because they can set a bad example for major powers (India, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, maybe even the Israelis). It will be a tool of others to use when they choose to scare other nations.
But, if they cannot stop the destruction of Donbass or an attack on Crimea any other way, why not demonstrate with a small nuclear explosion that you are serious and the next one will end the adversaries?
The alternative is to try to clear the Ukraine east and central with standoff missiles and drones. This might be very effective, if there are plentiful supplies. Wars tend to last longer than planned.
Most effective would be to get total control of the airspace of Ukraine and impose a NO FLY Zone, then destroy all Ukie armor and heavy weapons, all logistical routes, bridges and tunnels, rail and roads, and utilities.
This means, absorb the Ukie assault, use a massive North Wind counter while you document the Ukies started the war.
Two goals: end the Ukie government and break the statehood. Limit the future space for NATO to a small piece of Western Ukraine.
See to it that the winner is LDNR military.
Bring in Belarus peacekeeper to areas LDNR takes.
Later, bring in UN peacekeepers to assure humanitarian aid (from Russia) helps the Ukrainians weather the destruction of the country.
And be sure to destroy Ukraine. Render it a true 404.
The orcs will never attack Krimu or Sevastopol, they know it is instant suicide. However, if they for the slightest reason feel Foggy Bottom has their back they will attack Novorossiya, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, Minsk 22 be damned. This time Merkel et al will get short shrift if she/they come running to VVP yet again, they have proven that their ‘word of honor’ is roughly akin to that of a two dollah ho’ at 02:00 Saturday morning, IOW precisely zip. In fact, ‘two dollah ho”, ‘tdh’, is exactly what eu is, pure and simple.
If the orcs do attack Novorossiya they open the possibility of massive Russian retaliation. Will this happen or will Mother simply make sure Novorossiya does not fall, and possibly allow NAF to take the rest of both oblasti and be done with it? I don’t know, but this constant ‘crisis’ bovine scatology has to stop one way or another. Mother has enough troops on the east borders to take Warzowa if she wants but who knows if she will do it. I don’t.
This time, however, there will be no quiet return of the golden pheasants, those ‘foreign advisors’ SehSha is so happy to install most anywhere SehSha is ‘fighting’. This time, in the Victory Parades in Donetsk and Lughansk the prisoners will walk with the orc prisoners and each and every one of them will be ID’d down to name, service affiliation, service number and quite possibly HoR address. A fitting way to put an end to that foolishness and shame those feckless mercenaries as they should be, they have no honor and never will have honor.
Auslander
Author http://rhauslander.com/
Auslander
I too think that Ukraine would never be so foolish as to attack the Crimea, which has been reduced to a fort which even NATO cannot take. Also, geographical features prevent any serious Ukrainian attack, as Ukraine would have to concentrate it’s forces on a narrow piece of land, which is tactically dangerous.
Will Ukraine attack the Donbass ? I think that the chances are very high, as both Washington and NATO are dictating to Kiev. A war is needed to drag Russia into it, have it accused of aggression and hopefully see the Russian Parliamentary elections in September influenced.
Will Russia intervene in case the Donbass is attacked ? I think it depends on Russian analysis, ie. on the amount of troops and equipment Kiev has brought forward. I think Russia will intervene if it comes to the conclusion that the Donbass can be taken, although this would not be an easy task for Kiev, bearing in mind Donbass Russians had years to dig in. In an attack the Ukrainian military would be in the open, while the Russian would be dug in. As for the Ukrainian Army, it has been beefed up with Western high tech and other improvements. However, it is still made up of conscripts. How much can be expected from them ?
Finally, as far as Europe goes, the reactions of France and Germany are going to be important. Will they follow Washington’s policy, or will they desist ? We shall see. Nobody likes losing financially.
You misunderstand the mood inside the Russia. Russia has issued about 600000 passports to former DNR/LNR citizens. If something remotely to a mass death of these Russians will happen, you can expect the Russian hammer to drop with a ferocity not many will anticipate. Saker’s scenario is the bare minimum. The West doesn’t get, that they maneuvered Russia into a dead end. Public discourse doesn’t center around how to get back to an amicable partnership with the West, to the contrary a few hours ago the main TV show debate (there is quite an active political culture in Russia) was all about “The West sees Russians as in-human and unlike China, Russians are declared outlaws and should be just physically annihilated”. Behavior and discourse in Russia is fundamentally different, usually Russians don’t tell you shit about how they feel about something – they act. Words have power, Napoleon knew that before attacking Russia. Western apparatchik chimeras are incredibly retarded, they don’t get it.
Agree. Circumstances have evolved such that Russia is now at a crossroads – fight now when they have the decided advantage and then put up with the bad press and the sanctions (which they will get whatever they do), or fight later when NATO has decided it is time.
Russia’s current huge mobilisaton of its forces would indicate to me that the decision has already been made, and the3y are positioning themselves for the battle to come – overtake Ukraine up to the Dnieper and be ready to fight a pan-European War if it has to come to that.
From Russia’s perspective, I do not think this is a Ukrainian issuer, nor is it a Donbas issue – it is a clear existrential issue and they are now prepared to take it to the extent necessary to save the Russian state – no matter who the enemy is determined to be.
As has been pointed out before, Russia’s existence is at stake. The Russian government knows this because it has made very clear what would happen if Russia should be made to succumb. The West also knows this because the West itself wants to destroy Russia. The people in Russia also know this. Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary measures, like detonating a nuclear weapon to show its destructive power and try to bring people in the west to their senses. Whether such a display of destructive power would work is a different matter. No hope of bringing western leaders to their senses, so the only point of such an action would be to stir people’s consciences. We have to understand that people in the west are in zombie mode, numbed by the repercussions of the Corona crisis.
So maybe the Russian military is not as concerned about creating a precedent for others to follow, as much as the question of it being worth a try altogether.
My feelings about the situation around Ukraine are a bit different from the situation described by The Saker, while I clearly agree that he knows the situation much better than I do.
I see the following aims of Biden:
He will convince himself – and the people who count for him – that the result of the Maidan putsch (a result of the Obama/Biden government) was positive for the West. The problem for Biden is that he is so very much stubborn in his illusions. He cannot see that the situation on the ground is not in his favors.
And here, the countries in Western Europe have some significance. They are closer to the situation and also have more historical experiences so that they are less enthusiastic to see Ukraine as a success for the West. So, they will rather slow down. Moreover, they are still very much occupied by Covid.
I have not the impression that Biden has gained popularity in Western Europe, even if many media try to convince the public about the „progress“ of Biden.
Moreover, one should also consider the Trump factor. It is quite possible that Trump will not support a new open war in Ukraine.
Biden got crazy with his attacks against Putin, but the reply of Putin was so convincing that this theme is more or less finished.
Certainly, the West can do a lot of saber-rattling. There will be probably some smaller attacks. But since Russia will keep cool and trust on the reality, there is not much, the West can really do.
Of course, the West will continue demonizing Russia. But who cares?
Your belief that Biden is actually capable of analyzing this situation at all, to any degree whatsoever, places your assessment in the trash pile. Biden is not in this game or in any other game. Biden is drooling at the dinner table waiting for bed time.
Saker, I think you’re the only one who gets it. I was listening to Alexander from the Duran this morning. He is always trashing the weakness of the EU but suddenly he believes tensions are cooling because Macron and Merkel said the Normandy agreements need to followed. Give me a break. Like that means anything. In some ways this is the last chance for the US to stay relevant. Once China and Russia solidify their relationship its game over for the west. God help us if nukes come into play.
The sad reality is that The Duran has long ceased to be a credible source…
I quite like Alexander yet not as someone on the ground considering actions like the Saker but rather a diplomatic assessor for what that is worth.
My question is: should hostilities start in Ukraine and look like escalating will China (seeing the danger of a nuclear exchange and its consequences) decide to open a second front in the south China sea that may distract the attention of the US and in some way prevent such an exchange?
In such a senario how would the neo-cons in Washington react and would they leave nato and Europe to look after itself? Furthermore a escalation in Syria … perhaps an attack with Russian assistance on the eastern zone that the US controls?
What I am considering is that the anti-US forces seem to have many more options than the US and as time passes they increase, particularly as the US has so many vunerable bases around the world.
A lot of pro NATO Baltic writers have slid into place there. It is also big into ripping on China. That site is definitely not recommended.
As a long time supporter, Saker, I ask you to stop thrashing Alexander Mercouris and the Duran. He is doing his best to support our common cause.
BTW, as a gentle reminder, your analysis has been well off the mark from time to time. IIRC, you held the position that there was absolutely no compelling reason for Russia to become involved in Syria nor in Ukraine.
Regarding the topic at hand, the commentary has not addressed the timing of a purported military attack by Ukraine. Given the house of cards Western economy, It’s now or never and the West is making its final gambit.
I am not “trashing” anybody, I am expressing my opinion.
Which you don’t get to silence, at least on this blog.
Those interested in facts and not click-baiting grandstanding statements will appreciate my honest posting.
As for Syria, all I said is that there won’t be a massive invasion with Airborne forces and MiG-31s (which was the crap I was trying to debunk). This makes me wonder why you would misrepresent my views.
I’d like to read more about the western “centers of gravity” which would/should be the primary target for any Russian (counter-)measure. Is the Massmedia one? Probably not, was you can’t just bomb a radio tower and things get better. I see the main CoG in the western narrative that is mostly transported via the MM. So question is: How can Russia that for the good?
Second: As long as western style Democracy brings up the kind of politicians (a.k.a. “US political prostitutes”) the “will of the people” should not be attacked. That might be a reason to “massage” some of the upcoming elections with post-in ballot adjustments. In order to “restore” (?) the will of the people, the elections need to be free AND secured. How’s that achievable?
Third: Everyone expects a fall in the USD which would make exports (and thus weapons) more affordable. In addition, they grant some financial help through the IMF to keep the buying frenzy. But what would happen, if the USD would rise?
So, any “attack” from Russia must focus on casualty-free targets, mostly non-lethal weapons pointing just a bit higher then to the knee of the “powers that be”, grab them by the balls and smash them to the ground where they finally would (or not?) listen.
As the saying goes, if you don’t listen to Lavrov, you will listen to Shoigu. I think Germany/ France are key to partially solving this problem. Specifically Germany, since nord steam 2 hangs in the balance. Granted both are vassals of the empire, but even Merkel with all her misgivings and bad policies must know that allowing NS2 to be scrapped will result in irreparable damage to the Germans for decades to come. They are currently resisting ,but the true test is if Merkel can find whatever ounce of independence left to say no to the empire in the event that things go hot.
NS2 is first and foremost Germany’s problem. They have the most to lose if NS2 fails. Merkel will then have explain to her voters why Germany must to go back to using coal or buying pricey gas from US.
Unless of course the calculation is that in war with Russia, NATO will prevail, and that the EU can then go and help themselves to whatever they need. To the victor, the spoils.
Agreed. However, I think the empire realizes that the unipolar world is over and a new multipolar world is emerging.There is very little they can do to stop it short of full scale war. The empire might behave like psychopaths However I don’t think they are dumb enough to go down that path, for obvious reason. There is still an off chance that a miscalculation sets off a conflagration of epic proportions.
I think the long term goal, is to have full and total control of the EU. And to do that, it means having all relationships between Germany and Russia completely destroyed. NS2 is big part of that. Only question is will the Germany capitulate like France did with the Mistral ships back in 2014.
”There is a saying in Russian ’Поляки не вояки’ meaning ’the Poles ain’t no soldiers’: they always and only attack when their enemy of the moment is weak and disorganized”
Which proves that, since Russia is absolutely nothing of the sort, Gównopolska either is sillier than most of us imagined (sic) or that this hyena keeps howling all right, but doesn’t believe any of it. I honestly don’t see the war coming, with or without the legendarily brave Poles. How was it possible for Lukashenko in land-locked Belarus to keep the very same swearing and barking pack at bay while they were camping in neighbouring Gównopolska and tiny insect Lithuania last year?
Speaking of Russian proverbs about the Poles, back in the happy days when I myself together with other Russophiles were trolling the asylum La Russophobe, we drove a Poletroll there bonkers telling him: Кто о чем, а вшивый пшек о бане.
One of the senior leaders of the LDNR, Denis Pushilin, has declared that the chances of avoiding war are “extremely small”.
Thanks for the information.
May I ask you when do you think ukrainian forces will launch their offensive?
Is is a matter of days? Weeks?
Anytime between right now and the beginning of the Fall season. Right now the Ukie side has a lot of political momentum, so I would say sooner rather than later. If it appears that they are hesitating, they will lose momentum. That being said, I am no prophet and I don’t have access to classified info, so I can’t give you a date or even a time frame, sorry.
Frankly, anybody who now pretends to know how this will play out is talking out of ignorance, not knowledge.
Cheers
I believe Putin has not been averse to bit of trolling of the self-proclaimed bastion of democracy and human rights, the Kremlin should refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the Biden administration until a full independent international audit of the November 2020 US elections is conducted to determine the integrity of the results (plenty of evidence exists which implies the election was stolen by tthe Dems). Under the US Constitution, Russia would therefore have to recognise the current Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi as the interim President. What a head f*ck for the US political establishment, and knowing what a power hungry whore Pelosi is the potential infighting would be epic…..
My bet is, zionazi scum will likely start the war on Orthodox Easter. No matter how we try to rationalize, the truth is, this attack would be essentially a war on Russia.
Serbian sniper Dejan Beric who is in the field again claims they expect attack in the beginning of May. Source: https://twitter.com/ogligic/status/1378321460658327558?s=21
Laurent
The attack will most probably be launched when the ground is dry enough to accept tanks and self propelled artillery. Attacking on wet ground is a risk, something Germans discovered during the Second World War, when their tanks sunk into the mud.
As in Russia having to invade or like 2014?
Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US / NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes……….I don’t know why people get excited about NATO follers and posers. These are no soldiers. These are mercenaries. They don’t sell life for ideals. NATO will never come into conflict with Russia. NATO will leave Poland, Romania, the Baltics and Ukraine to pull themselves alone out of war, with obligatory barking through the media. That’s all. NATO was afraid to enter into conflict with the Serbs in 90s, with the Syrians for the last ten years. The fear that is spreading has no basis … except to disrupt the earning systems of the different lobbies in Russia.
It is great that the Biden administration is pushing Ukraine, it will demand that Russia is actively looking for a solution. So far, responsibility has been drawn. Lots of stories for nothing, except for the affairs of the oligarchy and shareholders with Western partners. The sooner the Russian army enters Ukraine, the agony of that people will end and an era that makes sense will begin. Russia should take all the way to the Vistula in case Poland enters the war. Also to punish the Romanians if they enter war and take part of their territory as spoils of war. I see the arrival of the Biden administration as an opportunity to move some things out of place, to change for the better for the Russians. Of course it all depends on the Valdai Kudrin-Sreder regime.
sorry djole,
nothing will change.
I recall Mozgoi was talking about a People’s republic, how that new idea
will spill over from Donbass into Greater Russia and re-innovate a new
Russian world … a world more for the people less for the oligarchs
but Mozgoi was killed
so was Givi and Motorola, and Zahacherenko (spelling?) who surely
were against Putin’s idea to be inactive, just sit and take the shelling from
Ukranian army day after day for 7 years. Those guys surely wanted to
WIN the war… but they were also killed
sure, putin-apologists will claim it was the SBU that killed those heros, but i think
it was the Kremlin, because they became unrestful and were going against the Kremlin
so yea biden was right, putin is a killer
https://southfront.org/war-between-russia-and-ukraine-is-inevitable-opinion/
“At the end of the day:
1. The war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable, but at the moment (in April), it is very likely;
2. For Russia and the Russian People, war “now” is preferable to war later;
3. The USA now will not fight for Ukraine with 99% probability;
4. Comments were disabled, I will not answer clarifying questions in private messages.” – Strelkov wrote in Telegram and Vkontakte.
Though he lost a lot of credibility for saying a lot of silly stuff, in this case I mostly agree with his points.
Orthodox and social, Russian world but …..not a word about national :))?
The Russians were injected with a virus from anglozio Bolsheviks and later Bounaroti Vatican Communists that they should not mention the word nationally or when they use it, to use it like Maria Zaharova in a negative context, associating it with the Nazis. An absolute lie. Anglo-American power structures deliberately destroyed the word National Socialism through Nazis and Hitler, or for example, Swastika, which has nothing to do with the Germans. The Russian world means the Russification of postsoviet space. Nobody does that in Russia. In Poland yes. In Russia, ethnicities – nationalities – peoples – tribes, etc. are allowed, as with Serbs. From other side, there is no national minority among Bulgarians … there are Turks and possibly Roma. Unlike the football hooligans, the Bulgarian government assimilates them as Bulgarians as well as all Serbs, Vlachs or Greeks. Greeks, Albanians, Hungarians do the same. For centuries. There are only internationals in Russia and Serbia who do not know how to admit their mistakes from past so they are now invent ing ways how to explain that the Russian world does not mean the Russification of postsoviet or postyugoslav space. They are offering new old Western-forced divisions and wars for the future within their territory.
Removed. Stop promoting as per the site rules. Mod.
I took away two things immediately. 1. Saber rattling against Ukraine in the hopes of starting a war is the last ditch effort by the west to deep six NS2. And 2, ‘The West’ is now divided between Germany-France and USA-Great Briton. GB has been working on its own gas pipeline from Norway which should be about finished now so they can afford to pontificate about not buying gas from the Russian Gas-station Federation. After all, self-righteousness only works on a full stomach/gas tank. If the US does manage to start a war in Ukraine, Europe, ie. Germany/France, might just refuse to participate.
Thank you Saker for making the time to interact more with your audience!
My answer to your questions:
1) Can Russia deter the US by reacting below the threshold of an open military clash?
The last military deterrence I can think of, short of war, is a military exercise whereby:
*A joint China-Russia crew sail out in a Chinese 091 Han-class SSBN equipped with both older “traditional” ICBMs, and the latest JL-3s and Sarmats.
*Sail the submarine somewhere east of Japan, and then somewhere off the coast of Prince Rupert, British Columbia, but still within international waters.
*Fire the missiles is multiple salvos east of Japan, and off the coast of Canada at missile test ranges in both China & Russia.
This exercise would serve multiple purposes:
*Type 092 is noisy, so no need to expose & put at risk the best assets of Chinese & Russian navies. It is meant to be detected!
*Both crews can gain valuable experience, and improve interoperability.
*Firing JL-3s & Sarmats is a chance to test their accuracy; and show Uncle Scam that both China & Russia have excellent equipment.
*Firing ICBMs with a traditional ballistic trajectory is an accurate simulation of US Minuteman 3 missiles, such that successful interception by S-500 & A-235 defence systems shows that both China & Russia can neutralise Uncle Scam’s most powerful weapons.
2) Does that mean that this conflict can turn into WWIII with nukes and all?
The China-Russia alliance can turn the American people against their rulers, and still keep the war conventional by launching their Kalibrs, Kinzhals, & other hypersonic weapons against:
*Wall Street
*City of London
*CNN, BBC, MSNBC, and other evil media companies
*AIPAC and its various sister organisations
*George Soros, Bill Gates, and other affiliated NGOs & deep state offices
*Pentagon, Central Command, CIA, FBI, Whitman AFB, and other despised HQs
*Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, British Aerospace, and other weapons manufacturers
*Bunkers of these “elites” in New Zealand
Dick,
I like your thinking but the response of the elite will be I die we all die.
The red bolded parts of Saker’s introduction, today and yesterday, are getting to the point. Finally. I am an American, it would be hard to locate an American who did not think Russia, in Ukraine or in any circumstance, is anything but a pushover. The sentiment is Russia needs to be taught a lesson and that will be extremely easy to do. The groups who are most likely to see a military adventure in Ukraine as a de minimus exercise would be government employees, academics, and military or ex-military.
A point of information. Does anyone know how large the Russian buildup is at this point? Can find guesses as small as 4000 troops and as large as 250,000 troops. The first is only in imagination of NYT. Which is holy writ to many Americans. The larger number, if even close, would signify there is already a decision for a very large strike. From inside US it is very hard to have knowledge of these things.
Does anyone know how large the Russian buildup is at this point? Can find guesses as small as 4000 troops and as large as 250,000 troops
IT all depends on what you count. I remind you that there are at least two military districts (southern and western) which could join in. You can think of each one as a completely independent armies (technically, fronts). Then there are units/forces which are of central subordination, say the Airborne Forces. Then there is the Black Sea Fleet. There were some forces moved very visibly, especially to show everybody in the West that Russia means business. But the forces moved were small compared to those available.
Cheers
Je voudrais demander au saker ce qu il pense des grosses manoeuvres que l otan est en train d organiser en Europe.
Quels sont les objectifs de ces manoeuvres?
Est-ce qu ils pourraient servir de couverture a une offensive ukrainienne?
Merci.
Yandex translate. Mod:
I would like to ask the saker what he thinks of the great manoeuvres that Nato is organising in Europe.
What are the objectives of these maneuvers?
Could they serve as a cover for a Ukrainian offensive?
Thanks
L’OTAN a ressuscité les exercices “Reforger” de la Guerre Froide.
Le but de ces maneuvres? Préparer pour une guerre contre la Russie.
NATO has resuscitated the “Reforging” exercises of the Cold War.
The goal of these maneuvers? Prepare for a war against Russia.
It is all bluff. They do not have guts for war with Russia or China.
Without nuclear weapons, war with Russia would end with Russian Army in Washington.
They know very well that NATO is paper tiger.
Two years ago I talked with two Croatian officers who spent certain time in Baltics as a part of NATO exercises.
When I asked them about that they told me that they were reasonably well paid for that.
And that Baltic pubs and Baltic women are good.
I asked them whether they would go to war against Russia. They laughed and said that no way they can force Croatian soldiers to fight against Russians because they do not care about USA interests and they do not have anything against Russia and Russians.. They told me – “believe me, if war happen it would be disaster for NATO. We had contact with soldiers and officers from other NATO countries, nobody intends to fight such super power as Russia or China are for the sake of USA or UK interests. Nobody, not even Poles”
Croats slaughtered Russians as a part of Azov in Donbas. Craoats are drooling over the new Orthodox slaughter. One can only imagine what the slaughter will be like when they enter Serbia with NATO under the IPAP / SOFA agreement to help internationals in Serbia. Don’t worry, the Russian international will forgive you again slaughtering Russians and Serbs.
Saker, you forgot a possible cyber world war.
Saker
Thanks for this (and the three previous). Sadly I am back to storing boiled water again and canned goods. (I have a big house and storage not an issue)
My comments/questions are: On point 5 which I think likely, I wonder to what extent the truly insane and stupid people in the US military will influence events. Underestimation is just one part of their stupidity but add to that hubris and also a sense that “god is on their side.”
Secondly I have long feared that the US military/state dept actually want a war with Russia, the idea being that they should crush Russia now before it gets any stronger. I assumed that in Putin’s March 1 speech in 2018 that is what he was preventing. However I guess my question is – did the USA listen?
I find it hard to believe that the rational Germans will accept blindly the loss of NS2 and US dependence.
What about the role of Turkey. Could it once again be setting itself up to be the bait- get Russia to attack so that NATO must assist. Could this talk of withdrawing from the Bosphorus treaty (not its real name I know) be part of such incitement?
What about the role of China? In Australia that is our focus and I know that I have been so busy watching the US/China stand off I ignored Ukraine (until I came back to your site (Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou for banning the ain’t no pandemic mob because it lessened the worth of this site and i stopped coming)
Before giving my opinion of what the Empire will do {or I think it will since prognostication has a poor record :-) } I’d like to quote what an experienced Political Analyst who has had direct, face to face, dealings with those of Empire who will make any decisions, has to say about them.
On an RT “Cross Talk” with Peter Lavelle, called “Russiagate Forever??”, was one John Varoli; Political analyst; former Foreign Correspondent in Russia for several years.
He said ” I used to meet with these people – hob-nob with them at parties. Oligarchs, Soros etc. I’ve talked with them. I had a 10 min conversation with Soros. They are not incompetent. They are usually well educated, but they are very ignorant, incredibly arrogant, and fanatics, no less than the Taliban. In a room full of people talking of Russia, I was often the only one who had lived there, many had never even there, but not once would they ask my opinion, in fact I’d be told to shut up if I contradicted them.
What do they want of Russia ?? { In response to Lavelles’ question}
Surrender. Surrender. You have to give up. The mighty American Empire is here, knocking on the door, it’s only a matter of time, we’re going win; we’re going to put you on your knees, you have no hope, it’s really that simple. These people are fanatics, they believe the March of Ideologies is on their side; that these people are “righteous warriors”. We’re talking about a medieval fanaticism, that why I draw the analogy that they are like the Taliban, but secular.
They dress differently and dont wear beards, but they are in essence, the same. It’s just a medieval fanaticism, which is for the people at the top – and we know thats not Biden. He’s not at the top. But there is also a huge bureaucracy, and these people are being paid very well, so just to exist, to have work, they need an enemy, and there is only one Russia.
There is China as well, but it’s very big {edit. economy} and they need to trade with China. Russia is there, it’s a huge country, has lots of military weapons and there’s the Cold war. They dont understand who “these people” [as they call them] are – they say “Eurasia”, the “Eurasian Continent,” call them “Eurasians” – and – whoooo – sounds real scary,.
Unfortunately I think that now, Russia is always going to be the bogeyman. And worse, young minds have been really poisoned. I see the younger generation who really hate Russia and Russians.
It’s the mind set of those who are influencers and real power brokers which I think we have to examine – and what Mr. Varoli says carries weight; it’s been demonstrated over and over especially in the total disregard for International Law and Armed Aggression, that those who rule “de facto” if not “de jure”, have demonstrated, that we see this truth in and of ; their arrogance and fundamental fanaticism.
Such is a typical mindset not only of individuals, but in the Mandelbrot sense of “as below so above”, as we find in the lesser we find in it’s larger grouping; of the bureaucracy, the politicians the “movers and shakers” of bankers etc; that again, of psychopaths, narcissists, those with schizophrenia which is a total inability to grasp reality.
That they are psychopathic and narcissistic in their group pathology, is by their utter arrogance, their belief they and only they know anything, are the best, the highest. They utterly disregard anyone not like them and cannot believe that they can be beaten by us. They have no ability to experience feelings, thus they cannot know that each life has a value, that there exists such as good and bad – that to harm millions of living humans in pursuit of a goal is an utter evil. They feel no regret, remorse, {killing 500,000 children using sanctions and blockades in order to take Iraq was “worth it”}.
But – and there is always, everywhere, a “But” — they must control – that is their life blood, their oxygen. And it’s what they do when that control is cut off, which is where, I would propose, we find the trajectory for they might go next.
The run of the mill, small time narc/psych is rarely a killer, Hollywood not withstanding. But these are not they – and we have seen over and over that killing is their Modus Operandi.
I suspect that, if the more balanced brains among them are unable to stop them, then war has become inevitable, because increasingly they must push the boundaries, to test where they are, and increasingly Russia is going to stand firm.
If the Empire of Oceania pushes the boundary of War with Russia using Ukrainian Proxies, I think they will find themselves over the boundary with no way back. Russia will be blamed wholesale for the War, in the usual manner. She will find herself with an increasingly poisonous toxic wound attached to her via Ukraine. As with a cancer sufferer, she will have to accept that now it has started, the cure must go to its logical end.
And that “end” I would propose is War on America’s soil . I think now we are at 5 seconds to midnight. And if War is taken by Ukraine under American control, into Russia, Russia will end up having to take it to America.
Putin has said “never again will we fight a defensive war on our own territory” and he always means what he says.
Interesting to me also is Mr. Varolis’ interpretation of this insistence of the Empire and their Agents in using the English word “Eurasia” and its derivative “Eurasian” – coined in this, it’s 3 airing, by the English dystopian novelist George Orwell, in “1984”. His tyrannical Rulers used it to refer to Russians, as it implied in the England of that day people of mixed race, which generated racism and antipathy.
I’ve been writing for some time now, that friends of Russia would do well not to use this, and that Russians all should refrain from its use and rename anything they unfortunately were blinkered enough to use themselves. I’m pleased to see my understanding of exactly why the Empire uses it and it’s effect on the mass hive mind of Americans is supported by Mr. Varoli.
Putin has said “never again will we fight a defensive war on our own territory” and he always means what he says…..¨What Donbas, Kiev are not Russian or Minsk? That’s how it turns out for Putin. So many hunting stories while the reality on the ground is different. Or he is just an internationalist ( fake nationalist) so he do not see them as Russian territory :))?
You need to do some research and thinking as opposed to just knee jerk emotion in response to Empire MSM.
Donbass etc are NOT “Russia” in International Law and boundaries – and Putin always and always follows the Law. He never does something when the time is not right, the circumstances are not right, and a myriad other issues are yet to be resolved.
It helps to remember that of all the information Putin has from all his Intel sources, we would know less than 1% .
Putin clearly said SEVERAL times that Russia will not abandon the Russians of the Donbass.
Thus a Russian intervention in the Donbass would be legal under international law.
The West will deny that. But Russia does not give a damn about what the westerners think.
And who destroyed international law if not the US/NATO in 1992?!
And particularly in 1999 …
What about Russians in Kiev, or in western parts Saker? Is he alolwed as a president of state that is permanent member of SCUN with 7500 nuclear war heads ta take them in protection, or he is on a level of Milosevic who sold Serbs in Krajina due to western partner offers? If Russia is a world power, it should start to act like that.
Ukraine was part of the USSR. Russia and Ukraine agreed (treaty) to divorce from eachother if Ukraine respected the rights of Russian speakers and if Russia kept access to their naval base in Crimea, in return Russia would respect the territorial integrity of the newly established Ukrainian state.
AFAIK it was Ukraine, with Nato backing, that broke the treaty, after the 2014 putsch, they begon violating human rights of Russian speakers.
Dave, dave….., who gives a f…ck what Ukro nazis wants? Since when does Russia talk to the Nazis, ask them what do they want? Ukraine is occupied country by nazis. Period. Russians in Ukraine are occupied by nazis. Period. What did the Russians and the Soviets die for, seventy years ago, to talk to the Nazis again today? Where are the Russians, they have lost their ba….lls somewhere on the road to CIA heaven in the last seventy years. 350 Serbs are fighting in Donbas, while tattooed hooligans of Spartak and Zenit are screaming in stadiums. In my country during the war, such people were organised by services to go to war for their common man What does the Russian service do, for whom does the FSB work, for atlantists? Thank you for answer. GRU is something else.
Hi Pamela. I’m in entire agreement with the assessments that you and Mr. Varoli conveyed of the mindset of the people running the show. I suspect that few people can really grasp just how truly sociopathic, greedy, and monomaniacal they are.
Primitive societies (according to Polyani) ostracized those with greedy and anti-social tendencies. Sadly, though, our species continues to develop social structures that reward the worst of us with great power.
And I agree that it can only end in the way you describe…
This year marks the 150 anniversary of the Paris commune. Whatever one may think about the merits or de-merits of socialism/communism, one thing that struck me in reviewing this historic and sad event (the Communards were massacred without remorse) is this issue of power and control. You are absolutely correct Pamela:
“But – and there is always, everywhere, a “But” — they must control – that is their life blood, their oxygen. And it’s what they do when that control is cut off, which is where, I would propose, we find the trajectory for they might go next.
They showed their blood-thirstiness 150 years ago when they brutally and unmercifully put down the Commune and haven’t stopped until this day. All the arrogance, indifference to life, ignorance, hubris and megalomania all rolled into an ugly package is, as you so well say, “their life blood, their oxygen.” If the fate of the Paris Commune is any indicator, they plan for Russia to go the same way as the Commune: drowned in rivers of blood. In an interview with Pepe Escobar Michael Hudson pointed out basically the same experiences as you when he got up close and personal to the chosen ones: the 1%. The bad news for the Russo-phobe 1% and their hangers-on is that modern day Russia is not the Paris Commune. In a worst case confrontation, Russia may cease to exist but the Western psychopathic elite will be turned into no more than radioactive vapors along with the rest of us. As Chomsky put it: “hegemony or survival.”
Pamela, I think we have disagreed before about use of the word “EurAsia”. I use it — and have always used it — to designate one continent with many peoples: from Dublin to Vladivostok. I have always thought that Orwell, with his typically British Empire upbringing (Eton and all that) shared a typically British attitude that “Wogs begin at Calais”; hence to him Eurasia was not our neighbouring land mass just across the English Channel but some far off land full of Foreigners. Such thinking ought to be corrected by frequent reminder that EurAsia is Us.
“Fog on the Channel – Continent isolated” — headline in The Times.
And, as I have said also Dr. Maroudas, I have said that you’re choice of a word is your affair. I tend to look, not at just me and what I say, but what I can see from a wider perspective; of incorporating history, my knowledge of the huge, vast and almost totally unacknowledged power of words to shape peoples perceptions that thus their thinking and decisions.
Go look at programs like MKUltra if you doubt me.
Noneof the evidence I have offered is or has been disproved or shown to be wrong.
And the interpretation of an experienced Political Analyst and Foreign Correspondent to Russia has just verified my opinion.
On this have no more to add.
I’m seeing too many assets in play for this thing to end peacefully. While Russia is taking all pains to not be seen as the aggressor, that horse has already left the barn in the Western media. The longer it drags out, the worse outcome for Russia.
If Russia doesn’t back off, I see easy opportunities for a Western false flag, which will only further Western aims. So much so that it almost seems inevitable. The Russian assets are in place so blame is easy and the West has already deemed Russia the aggressor.
I will still say that Russia should do a false flag of its own and get what it wants, namely a land bridge to Crimea. As easy as the West can do a false flag, so can Russia.
To let the West dictate the tensions is folly. It’s been 7 years. Enough is enough.
Yes, could very well be that Russia decides it will be blamed anyway and therefore decides to control the chessboard. The situation is now such that literally anything can happen.
Жељко из Крајине,
You say “As easy as the West can do a false flag, so can Russia.”
Well, I think it is not that easy.
It is against our basic moral priciples. We call it “дволичан” (two-faced) and look upon it as despicable. And if the leadership of Russia is morally upright (as I believe they are) then that makes an unsurmountable obstacle.
I know that the western christian church teaches (or at least practices) it, and the British and other politicians love and study Machiavelli (in fact I also read his works in order to understand the “enemy”) but to behave in such a way would gratly soil our soul.
Moscow will Be Ready for a War Against Ukraine ‘in a Month,’ Felgengauer Says.
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/04/moscow-will-be-ready-for-war-against.html?fbclid=IwAR1XcXUfax0Z_qMLRPaouBK-H38E54upCt0g38R536NVdrezlpKPyhsEWe8
They continue to not understand that Russia pretty does care about the baltic states..
”But he adds that there is one piece of “good news” in all of this. Given Moscow’s current focus on Ukraine, it won’t be launching an attack on the Baltic countries anytime soon”.
Who cares about the Baltic really?
No one cares about ‘TriBaltika’, absolutely no one. The three of them are not worth an ounce of pelican sneeze snot on a good day, and they ain’t had a ‘good day’ since roughly 1990.
Auslander
As far as I can understand, Russia doesn’t want to invade anyone at all, not the Baltics, not the Ukraine…the west is always trying to paint Russia as a country trying to expand into a empire, and I just don’t believe that is true.
Felengauer is a clown with ZERO credibility.
That is why the western media likes to quote him.
Thank you so much for all your insights & analyses Saker. Your website is such a tremendous resource in these terrible times.
Is there still a possibility for a Georgia-type scenario ? Ie. After a swift and decisive conflict, a victorious Russia creates independent standalone states DNR / LNR republics just like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia…?
The crew running the US Administration are neolib/cons who believe with conviction it was Ronald Reagan leaning on the Soviets that caused the USSR to dissolve. The neolib/cons fully believe that all they have to do is put enough pressure on the Russians and they too will fold. They feel certain that the Russians are just bluffing, and so the only plan they have is to escalate the confrontation.
It seems the Russians might be done with bluffing. This makes for a very dangerous situation.
The endless compositions with armored combat vehicles transported almost all over Russia and with partly masked plates marking the military district – leads me to think that the Russian army is repositioning its forces partly to secure the borders with Ukraine and to cancel NATO offensive plans regarding the deployment of Russian armored forces. Operation Barbarossa or the mini version will not be repeated. The Navy and Strategic Missile Forces had a full combat readiness check. This is not for the sake of Ukraine. Before Crimea approached the Russian Federation, Putin and Shoigu were on a weekend somewhere in the steppes. And this last time they were together again on a weekend in the steppes. Putin looked calm while Shoigu was a little worried. I think that Russia considers the situation serious in the whole spectrum of possible events. I think that the Americans have already realized that a significant part of the Russian operational and strategic unit is changing positions a bit and that they are not where they should be. According to their plans. That is why they are looking for an explanation from the Russians. And the Russians don’t give it to them. I hope that the Americans will realize in time that it is enough and that it will not be good if they support Ukraine in a strictly military sense.
An unexplained explosion in Russia on the gas pipelines feeding Ukraine, with repairs delayed because of the fear of attacks by UkroNazis, might dampen the Ukrops’ ardour.
Here’s another scenario:
As soon as the Ukies cross through the contact zone, documented by video, maps, satellite positions, Russia announces that they are using the full authority of the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire and separation of forces.
Then they can go in as Russians, blast the Ukies to hell, chase them 75 kms north of the contact zone where they are supposed to be.
We are talking about 8 hours of operations.
It completely defeats the propaganda war against Russia and saves the Donbass.
It creates an untenable situation in Kiev.
Meanwhile, Ukie commanders captured are taken as war criminals.
If “advisors” are found dead, wounded or surrendered, they are lumped in with the war criminals.
“Russia announces that they are using the full authority of the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire and separation of forces.”
i was just about to ask if this was a plausible/possible scenario, glad i spotted ur comment first🧐
Actually foreign advisors should be deemed enemy combatants, put in orange jump suits and housed somewhere like Guantanamo.
Larchmonter445: This scenario has a lot going for it, good idea. It would defeat the western goal of showing the world that the Russians are the aggressor and it would be enough to cause absolute chaos for the comedian in chief. After that he would have to do something with the likes of Azov and Right Sector or he would be destroyed by them. Does he have the guts to do it? Not likely.
“It completely defeats the propaganda war against Russia”
No it doesn’t. I don’t think you understand how disconnected propaganda against Russia has become. Even if they don’t cross, they’ll be slandered.
I think this goes beyond the NS2. Contrary to what some say, I believe that the Western debt empire can continue into perpetuity so long as the alternatives can be destroyed via sabotage and propaganda. Most of the world is suffering on account of the Western-dominated global financial system, but the West’s propaganda dominance allows it to convince the populations of most countries that Western countries are the protagonists. The propaganda has already convinced most people that the Chinese are committing genocide in Xinjiang (which actually has a growing population and receives massive economic subsidies); now it’s time to try the same with Russia.
Of course because it’s a race to the bottom. Even if U.S./West are collapsing, as long as they can make everyone else ‘collapse faster’ than them, then they still win
Interesting new think tank stuff in light of current events
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/30/the-us-military-must-plan-for-encounters-with-private-military-companies/
I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the command centers which gave this US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.
My sister lives in Tampa.
A strike on Tampa would be almost tantamount to a nuclear strike.
I don’t think that the Russians will attack the continental USA unless the USA attack Russia first.
But if the USA does attack Russia, tell your sister to get out as fast as she can
I live a few miles from Ft. Bragg, which houses both US Army and NATO command centers. Thinking it may be time for an extended vacation…
Guys, come on stop it. You’re seriously overreacting. There will not be any continental strikes, stand-off strikes, nuclear weapons, etc. This is getting ridiculous. I can almost guarantee this ‘war’ won’t even begin let alone lead to any science fiction level stuff as being described here. U.S./Russia will not be engaging each other directly, period. Not even in ‘minor’ ways in Ukraine let alone intercontinental ballistic strikes–just crazy talk.
The same talk before WWI:
They are all intermarried, they have economic ties, they love their children, no one wants a world war.
Only thing I can somehow agree with, is that strategic missile strikes are very unlikely and tactical nukes only if NATO crosses into Ukraine, which is also unlikely. BUT: There will be a major military exercise in Ukraine with about 30000 American and British troops. That will be a very convenient time frame for Ukronazis to attack. IMO this will be the most dangerous time frame in this year.
When you think about, how incredibly irresponsible to stage a military exercise with those numbers in a country with an on going civil war! Insane…
Insane? not really…i suggest it is well planned…very convenient Forces positioning…NATO has enough arrogance to think this will work in their favour…
The latest articles on RT confirm that the Ukies see the presence of NATO troops as a potential strike force which can support Ukie ambitions, whilst NATO dresses it up as helping to improve the Ukie position through training exercises >
https://www.rt.com/russia/520211-emergency-talks-us-donbass/
NATO cannot be trusted once they are on Ukraine soil. They may just do precisely that: a Trojan Horse that then acts as a support base for Ukie operations and egging the Ukies on…
I confess to being an optimist: I suspect that the Ukes, persuaded by their own propaganda, will rush forward into the meat grinder, and that the Americans will make disapproving noises but will do nothing.
Saker:
Thank you for providing these forums and I appreciate the great comments people have made.
FWIW, I think we can consider Ukraine as already attacking the Donbass – via snipers and UAVs, etc.
There may be a bit of a standoff going on. Whoever goes first will be documented/videoed for PR purposes (understanding that Russia receives no credit for restraint). So, neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to go first. Especially Russia who does not necessarily need the element of surprise. It’s a question of how well-gamed the Ukraine has thought this through vs. pressure internally and from the Empire.
I expect Ukraine to intensive their ceasefire “violations” (read attacks) in the hope that Russia will retailate, providing justification to shut down NS2. A false flag op is certainly not out of the question.
Indeed it is a volatile situation and could easily escalate into a much larger/uncontrolled conflict/war. Hope cooler minds will prevail.
In my opinion the plan here is to simply involve Russia in yet another conflict simply to Keep her bogged down while fueling internal strife with various ways and means.
Ukraine may do what we all fear which is follow Georgia’s path and attack either Donbas or make some foolish act against Russians in Crimea, and in both cases Russia would be forced to Reply, militarily.
West still blames Russia for the folly of Georgia.
I see much talk about Russia’s internal problems but yet I see in real time very little of this, the demonstrations brought out very few probably less than were at the U.S. Capitol and may of those were young teenagers, so it makes me believe its little but propaganda that’s being repeated without any documentation to back it up.
Hard to disagree with Saker’s analyses of the current situation. He’s absolutely right: “Propaganda wise, it is clear that irrespective of what Russia decides to do, she will be completely demonized.”
If there is one weakness in the Russian arsenal, it is its propaganda efforts. Great diplomacy, strong military, an OK economy (all considered), but the best it has come up with is the RT. As many commenters have pointed out, and I believe there was an article on the website as well, the RT has been underperforming. Its endless fascination with Ts&As, blood sports, talkshows that are superficial at best, even though they have had many decent guests. Many interviewers seem to be incapable of asking a simple question, but going on and on, until the guests answer: “I agree with you completely.” The word “professional” doesn’t apply to most of the RT’s programming. There is no positioning, no messaging, let alone a strategy.
And I have one question for y’all: What’s the Russian oligarchs’ position on the Ukrainian crisis?
Kindest regards, Evodius.
RT and more recently Sputnik are infested by western progressives. They should have had the FSB run the HR departments. You cannot even make a critical comment, and I don’t mean slurs, about homosexuality in their comment sections.
Supposedly the Journalism Department at Moscow State University is cranking out anti-nationaliats.
Russia has the same rats in its education system chewing the wires that infested the US education system 70 years ago.They are poisoning the minds of Russian children so that even if Putin wins this round, the satanists will capture the next generation of Russian minds.
The current world order was born out of WW2 and although it has undergone changes.
The demise of the communist USSR and the rise of the neo communist China and the EU it is still the same US dominant system .
The biggest threat to this system is a war between great powers that is thing that would push this world order over the cliff.
The US has nothing to gain from such a scenario ,nor any other player for that matter , as the order that enabled their success would be in tatters and who can know what would replace it, but it can’t be good.
The democratic order in its complacency and outright selfish greed is flying too close to the sun, where its wings of wax will surely melt.
Жељко из Крајине,
I agree that RT has become wishy-washy. But, even as such it is a pain in the neck and on the border of being banned.
It is a question of dosage.
Sputnik is a bit more explicit.
It is important to convey at least some messages.
:))
The US might achieve one or more of the following.
1) immersing Russia into a costly quagmire and inhibiting it’s development by way of sanctions, info war, kinetic war, etc.
2) using the time as opportune moment, deploying short & intereidiate missiles in Europe.
3) Killing NS2 once and for all.
4) Drawing Russia’s attention away from its joint strategic actions (with China) in Asia and elsewhere.
5) using Russia as a scapegoat and a pretext to the impending post COVID multifaceted crisis.
6) coercing Europe to buy more weapons, ensure vassals comply the US/NATO diktat.
You may add more.
within an hour of any conflict starting id put my money on china retaking its territory in taiwan.
China will be very, very careful.
It might take the closer islands controlled by Taiwan – makes strategic sense, but not mainland Taiwan. Too costly and too much like hard work. China need only wait and win the economic war, letting the US wear itself out in Europe and the ME. Then Taiwan will voluntarily rejoin China.
However I think they might well deny US warships access to the SCS and possible hit any US missiles etc placed on Taiwan.
If however the US strikes at China then it will be no holds barred. The US fleet will be attacked as will Diego garcia and Guam. The US bases in Japan are a much higher priority than Taiwan except symbolically.
Five questions.
1. Is the S-500 operational and deployed yet?
If “yes”, Russia is likely to come out ahead, if deflecting 95% of a nuclear barrage can be counted as “ahead.” A Pyhrric Victory is as bad as defeat. Even with perfect success at deflection, the raining plutonium chunks may still kill a lot of people.
If “not yet”, then we can see one reason why the Empire must have this war now rather than later. The S-500 changes the balance of MAD.
2. How would the USA respond to losing a carrier group?
3. Why is it so important to the USA to escalate this fight at this time? Strelkov says time is against Russia. Many commentators think time is against the USA/WEC. Is time against us all? “In the long run the probability of survival drops to zero.”
It can definitely be said that the past seven years time has been in Russia’s favor. They were able to complete and deploy the hypersonic missiles systems, long range cruise missiles, and maybe the S-500. Now the USA is spending billions to catch up. It is unclear how long Russia’s window of advantage can last in that arena, two years maximum, I would guess.
4. Is this really about NS2 or is there something else factored in that makes it essential for the Empire to fight this war now?
5. Is there a way to get the US leadership’s attention without total war?
The two questions I believe I can answer are:-
2. With a nuke. US aircraft carriers are US power projection. Sink one and they will respond with a nuke.
3. The West is in the process of collapse and therefore time is against it. Nordstream 2 is close to completion and once finished how can it be stopped? NS2 creates economic ties and dependency for Germany with Russia moving Germany (and potentially mainland Europe as secondary buyers) away from the Anglosphere. Additionally any geopolitical trouble the West can create for Russia and/or subsequent sanctions during the current timeframe are hoped by the West to influence the upcoming Russian elections. Furthermore, trouble for/with Russia can be used as a distraction to deflect from trouble at home; insane lockdown policies, economic collapse with massive money printing, mass censorship, vaccine passports (i.e. digital IDs), etc.
“ Nordstream 2 is close to completion and once finished how can it be stopped?”
All they need to do is get some navy seals to blow up part of the pipeline and blame it on terrorists. Surprised they haven’t tried this yet.
Possible protection (from a false flag or provocation) is being provided by NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 1. Details at @COM_SNMG1
There have been exercises by NATO’s Standing Maritime Group1 in the Baltic Sea for the month of March. They docked in Gdynia, Poland on March 5th. A reminder: the US and Russia are not the only 2 nations with nuclear weapons. In the middle of March, 3 British warships joined the NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea. Perhaps a nuclear sub was traveling with them? This did coincide with PM Johnson announcing that the UK will expand it’s nuclear arsenal (in line with it’s previous agreements to disarm.) Did they threaten Poland?? A Germany/Poland conflict is one thing, but a UK/Poland conflict is another, I think?
And today, PM Johnson spoke with Pres. Zelensky about ”the situation in Crimea.”
https://twitter.com/skywatcherintel/status/1379140664076738567
England has no nuclear weapon of its own
It is a lie perpetrated by English that they have nukes of their own.
It is a gift from usa to begging English – first polaris and now trident.
USA has priferated nukes to Enhla d and those two had cbutpaz to ask others to sign NPT while prolifarating nuke to England.
In fact world must attack England for its design to buy more American trident in violation of NPT promise to 3rd world that it will reduce the nuke arsenal.
This point must not be allowed to be ignored.
N. B. How engand acquired nuke by begging.
Some time in early 1963, president Kennedy was in Europe on a boat trip. In the same boat he was joined by british pm macmillan and war criminal toad look alike(or a full blown frog?) Churchill. On seeing PM macmillan in very sad and pensive mood, president Kennedy asked him as to what can ke nedy do to cheer him up? (keedy respected older people).
To which pm macmillan tod him to the effect that britian has no status in new world, only nuke can give it some resebance of power. If usa could give to Britain nukes then it would make us look strong.
Then president Kennedy said that he would look into it what help he can give.
That is how pirate English got American nukes
“All they need to do is get some navy seals to blow up part of the pipeline and blame it on terrorists.”
You misunderstand.
If the pipeline is completed any sanctions related to Russia become largely moot. For example, the West sanctions Russia instructing Germany they can no longer use the completed pipeline. Germany then dutifully turns off the tap. How long will this state of play likely remain when there is an active and accessible already existing but dormant pipeline with cheap gas just sitting there, waiting for the tap to be turned back on?
Similarly, sabotage to an existing pipeline should be comparetively easy to fix – as opposed to building an entirely new pipeline from scratch.
Sabotage that scotch’s the entire pipeline would clearly only be possible by a state actor and thereby would be demonstrably seen as an overt act of war.
In response to #3, the US is imploding at a spectacular pace. Given the noticeable Ponzi nature of our stock markets, I would expect a dramatic crash to begin in July or September. Everyone knows that our markets are being levitated using smoke and mirrors and that our traditional market crashes occur in October. So, everyone will be trying their best to front run that projected drop. Once the rumors of sell-offs can’t be effectively suppressed by the droning of talking heads, the stampede will begin in earnest. Don’t wait until October, folks, it will be too late!
The only thing that could prevent that from happening would be a new roulette table opening up. Carbon credits, internet of blings, green new steal, great reset, etc. aren’t ready to go online yet to blow yet another bubble. Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen all failed to deliver. This wet dream of restarting the fracking boondoggle by selling LNG to europe is just a desperate last ditch effort to get another bubble started before market collapse.
If they can just put off the markets’ day of reckoning a little bit longer — that’s all they’ve managed to accomplish over the past thirty years. Why should they try anything different, when what they’ve been doing has been “working” (at least as far as creating new opportunities for looting is concerned)? I don’t think tanking NS2 will save the West from its comeuppance, as borrowing from yourself to pay off your debts doesn’t really solve anything. Is Europe in any position to bail out the US at this late stage? The clowns running the West aren’t smart enough to figure that out. Plus they’re starting to seriously panic.
Putin should do what JFK did during the Cuban missle crises.. declare any attack by Ukraine against Russia a attack by the USA and British and will retaliate in kind.
Why not put nukes in Cuba (again) and Venezuela or even in Syria?You will see the Yanks quickly capitulate.
Give both erdogang and the US a 24h ultimatum to leave Syria(deir el zor and idleb).
That’s what I don’t get. To recap some ancient history: Khrushchev put nukes in Cuba in response to the USA’s nukes in Turkey. Cuban Missile Crisis; Russia removes nukes from Cuba; Khrushchev’s causing the USSR to lose face leads in part to his downfall. Meanwhile the USA supposedly removes its nukes from Turkey on the hush-hush.
Fast forward a couple of decades, and what do we have? A stockpile of nukes in Incirlik, a de facto US air force base in . . . Turkey. Where was the Russian response?
There are now reports of Turkey sending “moderate rebels” from Syria, aka the modern Turkish janissaries to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/ShehabiFares/status/1378973699920031747
If that is really the case, it’s a major violation of Minsk agreements (of course the 7-year long shelling of Donbass by Ukraine is already a violation). If those head choppers will show up in Ukraine, it’s literally a terrorist presence on the European continent and a risk to Russia and surrounding countries (and pseudo-countires lol). Therefore Russia may use this as a reason to strike with kalibr cruise missiles like in Syria at various military targets in Ukraine where Ukrainians and/or Turks/terrorists are located. Of course it may be difficult to discern where exactly are the rebels and Ukrainian troops, so better safe than sorry…
Also, it’s potentially possible to strike control centers of Bayraktar drones. This is only possible however, when/if Ukraine makes the first move against Donbass, clearly and publicly rejecting the Minsk 2 agreements, so that there would be no question about that the blame lies on Ukraine. Of course i understand that it won’t really matter to the media though, they will blame Russia, but nevertheless, they WILL KNOW that Ukraine started the first move. And that is bad for the morale of Western/NATO etc officials.
About Poles: I support the Poles retaking West Ukraine. Let them stay there as long as they like. Hungary, Romania also have interests in West Ukraine. Let them have it ;)
About Poles: I support the Poles retaking West Ukraine
Yes, I agree. These creeps deserve each other, richly.
Presently it appears that war really is imminent. Regarding the overall political/economic aspects of all this. Russian policy since Soviet times was that energy agreements with Europe were sacrosanct. Under no circumstances would the power be cut off short of war. I gather the aim here was to establish the ‘agreement capable’ status of Russia. Like Zeus, the Kremlin speaks only once. When you’ve got their word there’s nothing more to be desired. The drums of war in the East are meant to be heard in the West. It’s mainly about Middle Europe and the NS2. The industrial bourgeoise, the right, and the left are favourable to the East. The financial elites, the innumerable assets of the Atlanticists in government, the intelligence agencies, the media, and the parties, now especially the Greens, all favour crashing the pipeline and going back to nature. It’s like half the German elites have decided that the Morganthau plan was/is a great idea after all. Regarding Russia, what does it really matter? If Germany can be liberated from the Atlanticists and integrated with the new Eurasian economy, very good; that is best. But if not then what are the stakes for Russia if Germany is cut off from Russian energy and looses it’s world class standing as an industrial power? The economic motor of Europe will have it’s plug pulled. Europe is going down anyway; it will go faster. Does this impact Russia? Hard to say exactly but either way Russia has options. In any case, and as regards the strategy of proceeding towards the peace one aims for and not just the outcome of the next conflict, Russia is on the right path. Even if war comes and goes, and all the question marks this entails, the path ahead is the right one and will continue. Anyway the thought here is that even if Russia is obliged to cut off relations, raise the drawbridge with the West and let the Europeans fight it out among themselves for awhile, still, the overall strategic aim of securing a tamed Europe to flank the new order of things on the World Island is still within sight. Therefore a propaganda win for Nato framing ‘Russian aggression’ is not to be feared. It could even turn out to be a good thing.
Maybe before any potential conflict it would be essential to finaly eliminate the fith column in Russia once and for all.Close all pro western media, declare them foreign agents, expel all foreign ‘journos’ who are just services agents.
Honestly the only things the AZ Empire can do are:
1. Economic pressure to the max. Meaning NS2 and Swift are done. Also sanctions and a bunch of other, petty moves.
2. Proxy wars. Mainly Syria would intensify since Russia would be busy in Donbass. Organizing attacks in Georgia takes time and have been catastrophic for them so I count those out.
What will not happen.
1. Open US/Nato intervention other than some covert actions as well as providing targeting and training and perhaps create a base in the west of Ukraine.
2. Turkey will not participate, at least not in the main theater but would try to intensify things in Syria.
And I’m willing to bet that there will be no war to begin with. I don’t sense that the Ukraine is up for it, sure they move troops around but I only see it as mere posturing. I would actually like to see them try and then Banderistan falls apart, but even they arent that stupid, I refuse to believe it.
I am an ignoramus compared to all of you – but a grateful one.
I have only questions, then. Any response even a link will be appreciated.
My questions involve to what extent any EU countries here differ from the Empire. Even small ones. Hungary and or Slovakia, Bulgaria etc could any of these have any .
Is there any difference Merkel and Macron here in terms of the Empire. Macron seems to increasingly make Gaulliste noises vis-a-vis the Empire and Russia, but one suspects they are not much more than noises …
The countries of the EU don’t differ. A few random officials sometimes differ.
Hungary. Italy. Austria. Rare, but have shown signs of a brave soul on some topics. Almost none on Donbass.
So, in real terms, the vassals all behave like vassals.
Merkel and Macron are distinguished actors who think they are smarter than everyone everywhere. They are elite tools who fit the appellation: useful idiots. Putin treats them like the distinguished nobodies they are.
It is universal in Europe. They are all Russophobes, officially. They all want Russia broken and destroyed.
According to polls, positive feelings about Russia in 2014 were 20 % in the EU, with a neutral stance even higher.
Of course, through endless brainwashing, these numbers have worsened, but we are still talking about many tens of millions of citizens from our countries, and even more who can be convinced.
But for now, most of us are still in the Atlantic honeymoon phase with the Biden Harris regime.
We are seeing the rallying of forces on their side. This is what they have planned for, this is what all those years of brainwashing in the Baltics and in Poland were for. If they don’t strike now or very, very soon (think in a year) then all their effort is going to waste. The petrodollar is on its knees, the stock market is nearing implosion. They simply can not print more money without causing chaos.
The Neo-Fascist Empire is desperate. It knows that once Germany, Russia, and China become too economically intertwined, then its grip on Europe, and thus the world, will be over. So, it is going to risk it. The sad excuse for a country, the Ukraine, is getting all help it can dream of. Even full-on troop deployment is on its way. Hell, the US advisors are already there.
The Neo-Fascists planted a walking, senile corpse to be its “leader”, just to push for an all-out war against Russia. As Andrei has said, we can only thank the dumb, gullible Americans for that. So, thank you libtards, and see you on the other side!
I read an article a few years back about China and its view on a major war occurring somewhere other than Asia. If the US was involved, China would perceive the war as further imperialist expansion and eventually China would be in the crosshairs. The first thing China would do is take control of Taiwan because there is no way they were going to allow an American citadel off their coast.
Sounds like the makings of WW3
Russia does not need to go to war.
Just to protect LNR and DNR much stronger and better.
Nothing else.
So, Kiev junta can do nothing and USA and West can only scream.
Russia should not get involved in that war.
It is a trap. Russia has much more important things to do.
It is not time for war. Economy is the most crucial for Russia.
Ukraine and Novorussia can wait for the time being.
Ukraine is the last USA chance to suck Russia into the war …war that would destroy Russia for long time.
NS2 is also one reason for this …again, Russia has to protect Donbas republics and to continue with economic recovery.
Not to give chance to West and America to ruin Russia.
Dobar dan.
1. The only effective political weapon the West has is their mass media and it is there solely to brainwash their Western subjects.
2. Whatever Russia does, directly or indirectly in a case of an Ukranian attack, will be denounced as Russian aggression. Irrespective what Russia declares/documents.
3. It is a trap placed for Russia and a sole tool to further discipline Europe.
4. Putin is smarter than the apes running the show in the West and he will do the right thing.
My solidarity, whatever happens, is with Russia.
Pozdrav.
A general nuclear war is bad for profits. It’s hard to collect rents when your rental properties – and the renters – are radioactive ash. It’s all about the profits. The ruling elite will not risk their valuable lives and their income!
The ruling elites spent the last 80 years ensuring that nuclear war was MAD (mutually assured destruction) by assisting in the proliferation of nuclear know-how around the world. They do not want a nuclear war. And I maintain that they are in charge in the West. The US government/military are their willing puppets. Besides, VVP has said he knows where the elites live and they will personally suffer consequences. He understands.
As others have said it’s an economic war. Remember that WW II began with a total economic boycott of Germany in 1933.
I think the current crisis is bigger than NS2. This adventure may be about making it politically palatable for the EU to turn its back on Russia. A total boycott. If this weakens the countries in the EU, so much the better. Weak national governments are what the Deep State desires. Think Libya, Iraq and Syria. They are failed states but their oil is still flowing to the benefit of the Deep State but NOT to the benefit the citizens of those states. From the point of view of the Deep State these countries are not “broken”, they’ve been “fixed” to maximize extractable profits.
Russia was once a broken nation being sucked dry by the Western Deep State. It threw off the parasites and today it’s thriving. The same can be said of China and Iran. They threw off the Deep State parasites as well. I long for the day when the people of the US do the same.
TheBAG
“Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.”
Yes but I believe Russia’s policy is to only use nukes if Russia proper were attacked, unless this has been changed since 2020. With Russian help in the east Ukraine will not get far, so I think this will be moot. Empire forces basically just corporate mercenaries at this point.
Жељко из Крајине,
Three years ago this policy has been extended to “…and our allies”.
Quote: from Reagan insider Paul Craig Roberts (I dont agree w/ all of his takes on Russia)
“While the idiot appointed Secretary of Defense eliminates the fighting capability of the US military, the illegitimate president in the White House calls the presidents of Russia and China names and issues threats. Simultaneously, the idiot playing Secretary of Defense issues an American guarantee to Ukraine against Russia, while the Defense department announces a lipsticked, painted fingernail, pony-tailed, transgendered army in the interest of diversity.
The kinds of men who made the US Marines and paratroopers a fighting force are not going to join such an army or accept such creatures as officers. The US military is history. Ukraine should take this into account before they get themselves destroyed. The American guarantee is worth zero, and this worthless guarantee can start a world conflagration just like the worthless guarantee the idiot British government gave to Poland in March 1939.”
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2021/04/05/how-much-longer-will-the-united-states-exist/
I’m not saying a threat doesn’t exist but lets not hyper-ventilate.
All I would add to PCR’s remarks above is:
1 Putin & the RF have had years to plan & prepare for this
2 The US is a vastly different country from 2016, it cannot simply pick up from where it left off.
“the consolidated West”
-There is no such thing. Not even the core(USA) has support of its people.
Certainly there has the last few decades been everything but consolidation in the west… Nationalism is rising everywhere. “westerners” all seem to hate their governments.
The Empire(crumbling) can pretty much only print currency and hope it will buy favor, militarily or otherwise, yet everyone knows in the long run it can’t buy anything.
Much of eastern Europe still cling to the notion of the US as some sort of messiah, coming to save them from the soviet union. There’s no messiah coming from the US, this is what Ukraine and hopefully other nations with similar dreams will soon realize.
A couple of thoughts.
NS2 – please keep in mind that the Russian economy hasn’t earned a single dollar from NS2 during the last decade, so an extra year or 10 of no money from NS2 doesn’t change anything. Geopolitical and National interests are more important than a few extra billions of dollars.
Novorussia – it is in Russia’s best interest to connect Odessa and Kharkov with the Donbass region. Russia missed the opportunity to form Novorussia in 2014, it very well knows that if it doesn’t attempt this now, it probably never will. Russia will not integrate Donbass/Novorussia, but will be happy to have a friendly state as it’s neighbour (like Belorussia).
Donbass – they have the motivation and technical resources necessary to retake full administrative control of the republics (at 2014 border levels). If Russia pulls a Georgia (2008) level intervention, the remainder or the liberation will be done from by the LDR forces.
Ukraine – from Russia’s point of view, it would be best to transform Ukraine into a 2 state republic (similar to modern Bosnia and Herzegovina, which consists of a Serbian republic and a Muslim-Croat federation). The 2 state solution prevents Ukraine from joining Nato, protects the ethnic Russians in the south and east of Ukraine, and also saves face to the Ukro-Nazi politicians since they can claim they have restored a unified Ukraine. It’s a win-win situation for everyone in the region (minus Nato and US).
Russia – they have the necessary military forces, technological advantage, intelligence resources and are in the best position ever to act. The opposing forces are demoralised, the conscript army will route / surrender on contact, and the local population will just watch the Russian army blitz through, some even waving them by on the street (like Georgia). But Russia will not destroy the army, it still considers the majority Ukrainians as brain washed brothers.
Conclusion – I think Russia is hoping that the Ukie’s attack now (great for moral justification), and if they do not, then I see Russia provoking a fight (long term geopolitical and strategic interests), even if it means doing a false-flag to start it. The moment is right for Russia, and if they do not act now they will lose the geopolitical and strategic opportunity and face an even tougher struggle in the decades to come. The conflict will be Georgia style (route the opponent but don’t destroy it), and Russia will stop. The advance will be from 3 fronts (north of Kiev through Belorussia, from Rostov and from Crimea). Donbass troops will quickly move to the republic borders. Insurgents in Kharkov, Herson and Odessa regions (hopefully already briefed and prepared by Moscow) will rise up and attempt to gain control of those republics. If the insurgency succeeds, expect to see Novorussia being formed as a new state. A quick ceasefire, a series of meetings brokered by Germany/France/Russia (new Minsk agreement) and Kiev will be forced to settle for a dual state solution like Bosnia and Herzegovina. Everyone wins :)
Pretty scenario….
Kiev & it’s nazi putchists will never settle…. they are rabid hyenas…
Unless, and until the Russians publicly take bite the bullet and state their policy is to DESTROY UTTERLY
any and all NAZIs whenever, and wherever found, together with those who harbor them. The 5 eyes will continue to create them and use them.
INDY
After reading this:
“Donbass – they have the motivation and technical resources necessary to retake full administrative control of the republics (at 2014 border levels). If Russia pulls a Georgia (2008) level intervention, the remainder or the liberation will be done from by the LDR forces.”
one thing struck me. How about the following hidden motivation of protracted Donbas painful period since 2014-2015.
Russia has been purposely preparing civil administration in Donbas for the bigger task, a civilian structure that will be capable of very quickly absorbing new territories that will be added after the next big conflict that is about to happen.
So you have reliably local people, all administrative structure, laws, civilian low enforcement, courts … basically everything in place to quickly ride out the chaos emerging after the military conflict. This is also essential for winning harts and souls of the population in the war zone.
US/NATO involvement in Ukraine is going to increase with time and risk for the ww3 will be large if conflict is postponed. So I agree with Strelkov that Russia should aim at dealing with Ukraine rather sooner than later.
The other thing is that this time Russia needs to totally destroy Ukraine military, SBU and all ukronazi forces, install some at least neutral persons as transitional government and earliest possible organize free elections than leave them at their fate.
If Russians analysts estimate that elections would bring some new flavor of ukronzies then they should completely destroy all industrial military capacity outside designed area for expanded Donbas (new Malorussia) in course of war.
The third is that Russia should at least allow Donbas to expand to the Dnieper inclusive complete Ukraine Black Sea coast and border with Transnistria forming new Malorussia.
So what would be the goals of the “Biden” Admin?
The goal is simple: Crimea
The ‘Globalists’ are failing at their goal of global dominance. The U.S., U.K. and Europe are all imploding financially. The ‘Globalists” need to contain Russia and China in order to be able to impose their system of governance on the world, and with it the ‘Global Reset’. The window to do so is very narrow; less then two years, I would say. After that they will be too weak to even compete in the Multi-Polar World order.
To contain China, they need first to contain Russia.
To contain Russia, they need to control the Black Sea.
To control the Black Sea, they need Crimea.
Crimea was the reason for the Maidan in 2014, and having failed, the reason for the economic war against Russia ever since. Having failed at this as well, they are now going for one last ‘Hail Mary’ play to get Crimea, which will enable them to contain Russia, then China and achieve their goal of durable global domination..
For the ‘Globalist Elites’ themselves, if they fail, they are finished. Thus, they will never stop. The only hope is that some professionals in the American military come to their senses, and refuse a suicidal war.
According to reports, the Western curators of Ukraine plan to visit the areas of responsibility of the 92nd separate infantry division in the Loskutovka area, the 59th separate infantry division in the Artemivsk area and the 72nd separate infantry division in the Avdiivka area.
The visit to the previously planned 10th ogshbr in the Gorlovka direction was canceled by the Americans due to the high mine danger in this area.
It is important to note that simultaneously with the delegation’s visit, seven journalistic groups of TV channels and news agencies of the REUTERS news Agency from the UK, France-Presse from France, Wallenfels and The Wire from Germany, as well as Ukrainian ICTV, inter, Ukraine-24, and channel 5 are scheduled to work in these areas.
Источник: https://rusvesna.su/news/1617627816
The Americans are afraid of combat. It’s laughable.
The wholly owned-controlled-managed-embedded media like the poodles they are will be going to the Ukies’ line to witness “Russians starting a war”, per their script.
You probably forgot one other motivation: Those “heros” are so afraid of been “accidentally” hit by the Donbas military that they need a human shield: a bunch of lapdogs pretended to be journalists.
I don’t understand. What is ‘separate infantry’? Infantry not in a combined arms formation, perhaps?
100% agree. That media personell would come sooooo handy for an “unforseen” “russian” “surprise attack”.
Just pure luck, they are all there. Who would have thought.
Russia will not enter Ukraine.
If there is a WAR, if the Ukronazis attack the LDNR Republics, they will be crushed.
Russia will help with Material, Volunteers, intelligence, EW, yes off course!
maybe it will create a NoFlyZone, but I am not so sure about it, because it is not necessary… the moment a nato airplane appears close to the Frontlines it will be Shoot Down, and that is bad for morale and PR.
The Novorossiya Army will blunt the spear of the attack (neonazi battalions, and a couple of better prepared Battalion Tactical Groups of the Ukrainian Army) while (some of) Nato Cheers on the sides, like the Tribaltica (Whores) Poland (the Mademoiselle) UK and USA (the Dement Pedophiles)
I don’t give them more than 48 hours of fighting and surviving. Maybe they got some open venues, to be directed to cauldrons where they will be well cooked. After that, as I say, no more than 48 hours later, The NAF will be released, unleashed over a panicking Ukro Army, that by this time will have loss its Nazi component.
Conscripts can never win over a professional and well equiped army, at least that haven’t happened since… The Roman Empire.
There is a lot of overestimation about the capabilities of Nato and Ukrainian Army.
All War is Deception, and they are being played. The Masters (VVP, Shoigu, etc) saw them coming long time ago.
Any War is won or lost on the minds of those who fight it. You lose the moment that you have no more will to fight and die for your cause. The Ukrops know, the Natoist know (at least those with normal intelligence) deep in their Minds that if they confront Mother Russia they will be utterly destroyed. The Neonazis and other scum will be eliminated from the human gene pool. Evolution in Action, Darwinism at its best.
What we see it is Fear. They are despaired, they are scared, they are Cowards, and sorry to say but the Muricans are the worst of the lot. A pack of Hyenas trying to fight a Real Predator…
well… I have confidence that in the end all will be right. All this might even help a little with the Fall of the American Tyranny. Once the Reality Shock awaken the sheeple masses. They will see clearly that the emperor is naked.
Out of all comments, yours is the closest one to what I think about the current and future events in Ukraine.
I would just add, in case of large scale attack by ukro zombies, Russia will also provide massive fire power, from inside Russian territory. Cauldrons in 2014 will be a joke compared to what would come this time.
Previously I posited ( T#3) that the question of how Empire should respond is perhaps just as, or more, interesting.
Consider the History of Empires…Persia, for example, at Salamis…to retreat saved the empire, to proceed without the logistic support of the navy would defeat…
If Empire retreats (History suggests)there’s liable to be a coup in DC, another coup, and real power comes from just where Mao said, so expect the Army (perhaps the officers that do not favor sodomy) to favor a particular “clown” as titular and maybe useful “leader”… (well he did win the election).
This avoids defeat. It’s what Mao would do.
If Empire goes ahead? Loses major war. (coup 4 sure, more satpies abandon the embrace, ruin)
I agree with previous post on this thread that said if R fights A, then R goes to A. Seems to me the VVP recently hinted at just that…
Interestingly Empire seems to be intent on choice # 2.
Addendum> This is outcome of Imperial attack…
https://youtu.be/vCD4JuuJG1g
(Manhattan/Berlin…)
musical
I am always a little surprised/shocked that Russia allowed Ukraine to collapse into anarchy on its doorstep.
Russia was well aware of the unfolding situation, with the tentacles of usury and Anglo-Zionism coming towards them, hence the Russian military engagements in Syria.
Now the situation is becoming a powder keg which can only end in tears, for everyone, except the Anglo-Zionists, who feast on carnage.
Russia knew what would happened with Ukraine, but Russia’s focus was Crimea. Just waited for a right moment to take it back. Mission completed. Anything else, after Maidan, is a downfall of this artifical entity and next large scale conflict will be its end. Rightfully so.
You can see more if you watch this documentary https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=putin+-+1+-+the+documentary+sure+to+change+everything+you+thought+you+knew+about+russia%27s+president
In it you will see Putins’ description of dealing with the lying O’Bama, the assurances given by the Americans of what they would control, and that Russia went along with them.
Although America as a duplicitous mob was known, it is the case that there are – or were then, it’s pretty much gone now I suspect – many incidences of something being achieved via diplomatic channels – especially at such an important level and circumstance. No one on the Russian side had any idea the Americans would be so treacherous.
But they know now. And will never forget – or forgive.
Can’t vouch for current authenticity but looks reasonable as a drone’s view.
“Google translated caption reads: “Ukrainian troops with a lot of military equipment take up position not far from the Donbass front line 🔥 What is noticeable in the video is that no barracks or at least tent cities can be seen, which suggests that these troops are concentrating to keep rolling.”
https://t.me/BifFidU/854 [1:16]
All neatly stacked together. Wouldn’t it be a shame if something explosive landed on them about NOW.
Saker is right when he says Russia cannot go back any further. The Donetsk battlefields are within 200 miles of Moscow. Russia will not allow a massacre of ethnic Russians on their border with the corresponding wave of ethnic Russian refugees flooding into Russia by the million.
But the biggest problem is the leader of the free world, Biden. This senile frail old man was installed in an obvious coup-stolen election in a deeply divided America. He is in the middle of a Stalin like purge of his military and the US military is not ready for any war. But with Biden suffering from possible dementia, he may not be making many decisions and the question is, who is making most of the decisions. And in the heat of battle, battle fatigue will quickly completely disable Biden and then war by committee could lead anywhere. Americas enemies (aka China) know this and may act.
Because of the Biden’s mental health, all bets are off….
Pray for peace.
But be ready for the other…..
Rainman…..
“The Donetsk battlefields are within 200”
Lugansk to Moscow by road is 750 miles
Thanks for the edit.
I read some where that the Ukraine border is within a couple hundred miles of Moscow.
I’ll check my facts better.
But the Ukraine does border Russia. That’s close enough…
I think it’s possible for Russia to quickly squash any attack on Donbass, and thus stop the situation from quickly escalating. But for this to work, they have to do it fast, and with brutal accuracy. Once the shells start falling, the drones start flying, the tanks start rolling, Russia will need to destroy all this equipment and the vanguard of the Ukronazis ‘with extreme prejudice’. I believe they have the equipment, technology, and the bravery to do this, but only time will tell. This would be a great time to put those hypersonic missiles to use and send a strong message – Do NOT f#%k with us ever again.
This would most likely cause mutiny among the Ukrainian army ranks, as the Ukronazis are a minority among their ranks. Most Ukrainian soldiers will not want to die stupidly, only the front line Bandera nut cases will. A quick pounding defeat would most likely cause complete disintegration among the Ukrainian soldiers. This is the best case scenario, as it would mean a very quick end to the hostilities, Russia would not even need to take more territory (although they should take a little more), and this would most likely cause the collapse of the government in Ukraine and an eventual splintering of the country. Nord Stream 2, under this scenario, would be completed, as it is really the Germans who need it, not the Russians. A peace plan and ceasefire would happen very quickly to save total humiliation for NATO.
Like this headline
Russian state TV is scared of Biden — and even speculating they might need to go to war: report
First time poster.
I really know very little other than what I read. The mud at this time, the deep muckity muckity fertile soil in eastern Ukraine, it would make sense to not start any forward motion at this time for the assorted true believers and conscripts to the west of the lines of Lugansk and Donetsk. I did read a fair book about the tank battles there after Stalingrad.
It appears that there would be more room for various Russian Federation options in resonse to an attack on Lugansk, Donetsk, depending on what forces are being deployed. shelling of empty areas just to shell, shelling positions, or shelling civilians, etc. etc. Etc.
But if they go after Crimea, it is just like attacking Murmansk or St. Petersburg or Moscow. The amount of stand off weapons to be used by the Russian Federation would be something never seen before.
I fear the reactions of the usOfa warmongers if numerous tactical officers working in the Ukraine at command centers die. They just go ape shit over that stuff, they do not look at it as natural consequences or the risk of being in battle. In the end, that is their problem.
If this is really going to happen, one hopes that the facists from Canada, the usOfa Poland, etc. etc. should be showing up. Cell phone usage should be able to give some numbers and location hopefully.
Things could get ugly in Syria also, usOfa soldiers are in close proximity to Russian Federation.
This pacifist can dream, hallucinate a divorce and natural consequences. For the Russian Federation to be thd adult . Just shut the gas line going through Ukraine off. It can go back on when the shelling stops. Tell the Germans, do what you want to do, either you force the completion of the Nordstrom line or pay through the nose for LNG. The Albertans have a saying, let the bastards in the east shiver in the cold. No, for almost 30 years I have been using natural consequences for supervising people from all over the world with L’Arche (and other agencies) and also working with the mentally challenged. I do miss the 13 years I did it in Canada. I am back in the usOfa. Natural consequences does not seem to work with the powers that be in the, be it demopublicans, republicrats or plutocrats.
What you read at the time influences your thoughts. I just reread Ann Jones “They Were Soldiers” about the process starting with stepping on an IED (or 30-40 year old mine) to various hospitals and the care after and also the process of returning back for non-physically wounded soldiers. And also reading for the first
time “Kill Anything That Moves” by Nick Turse on the way things went on the ground and air in Vietnam. I did buy Martyanovs book awhile back. I do miss Prof. Steven Cohen, RIP.l
Having lived with homeless war veterans for 6 years (at times owning the shelter and living with over 20 WW2, Korean and Vietnam veterans at a time) as a venue for me to conduct agitation and non-violent civil disobedience against nuclear weapons (13 remands and/or arrests) and two arrests against usOfa militarization in Honduras in the late 1980’s, I can state that reasonable thoughtful thought does not work in the usa. Horner and Fallon (General and Admiral) ended their military careers as heads of the Strategic Nuclear Integrated Command (SNIC was SAC previously) and their strong recommendations on their retirement was the complete dismantling of the land based ICBM’s. Not needed. No, no rational thought, and they break their treaties since at least 1800’s
Nothing to do with the Ukraine mess at present, but my comrade John Laforge from the 80’s has a fair piece out on the state of the US nuclear weapons systems
https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/03/28/accidental-apocalypse-and-nuclear-war-on-drugs/
peace out,
Motto: If Ukraine listens to the poisoned whispers of the US and attacks Donbass ,the global elites might lose It from Brzezinski’s great chessboard !
The world war 3 will not start from this conflict but could be a prelude. Erdogan will be removed ( Putin can not save him this time,according to some rumors ), the new Turkish leadership will attack Greece ,will block the Russian fleet’s access to the Bosporus Strait and Russia will return the favor by dismantling Turkey. This is the moment when NATO army will march towards Istanbul and try to get back the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits from Russia,this is the beginning of the global war.
So the “Biden” Admin might reach its 3 bullet-point goals and in compensation,Russia might get as much as it fits her interests in Ukraine.( water for Crimea,the whole Donbass liberated and a surrounding buffer zone,a land connection between Russia and Crimea,a new and friendly government in Kiev to protect the Russian minorities rights and the gas pipelines,gas turbine engines,etc…) .
This is a very interesting and correct to the point statement by Saker:
“The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia.”
It’s probably the most important aspect of the whole story. But why is it so? While I think Russia has been very clear from my perspective, why aren’t they clear to the rest?
I think that deeply in the psyche of Russia, there’s desire to punish those people for their hubris and hypocrisy, and that is what prevents them from doing everything possible to FORCE the “partners” away from the collision course. They talk clear but don’t imply the terror strongly enough. I don’t think they should do it. I’m only stating an observation.
@Brand
@Brand
>”They talk clear but don’t imply the terror strongly enough.”>
This is the crux of where Russians and the US talk past year other and fail to have any understanding of the other.
War, for Russians is very real, the memory ever present. They have no comprehension they need to explain the horror.
For the US, with the exception of veterans who survived the meat grinder of overseas engagements, war is a video game, Hollywood, cartoon comic books. It’s fun, exciting, and the US good guy always wins.
Civil war sites are now just another variant of theme parks.
For Russians war cannot be more real.
The Immortal Regiment each May 9 has 800,000 participants in Moscow and 12 million across Russia.
Started in 2012 by civilians, its exponential, organic growth saw it immediately embraced by both Putin and the military.
Every family suffered in the Great Patriotic War.
And the memories are held in pain.
For the US memory of war is the distant past: “…well hey, my great-great-grand pappy fought at Gettysburg”. It’s prideful and meaningless.
Watch the Immortal Regiment march.
A river of people reverently carrying pictures of family. The Great Patriotic War is a still raw, living memory for every Russian born before Year 2000.
Russians do not comprehend why the horror of war needs to be explained. It’s beyond self evident.
Which is why Russia fears war.
But if, and when the Russians collectively decide the threat has become existential.
Then the US and its snivelling quislings will know real fear and real war.
Most likely Russia would not respond unless Russian territory is attacked. It will be an occasion for the ultra patriotic ‘opposition’ to denounce the cowardice of Putin, his subservience to the enemies of Russia, etc, in the lead to the September elections.
The war between NATO and Russia is unlikely.
For a simple reason, a full blockade, embargo on Industrial goods from EU, would spell an industrial collapse in Russia.
Russian industrialist will not allow, simple as that.
Industrial collapse in Russia? Bold statement backed by what?
Now try this. All gas supply from Russia to EU stopped. How is that going to work for EU industrialists ?
Russia’s import value of machinery and equipment ( in $US )
2000yr – 10.7 bln
2015 – 81.9 bln
2019 – 113 bln
44.8% of Russia’s total imports by value in 2020 were purchased from European countries. Asian trade partners generated 44.3% of import, 6.5% worth originated from North America. Smaller percentages came from Latin America (2.7%) excluding Mexico but including the Caribbean, Africa (1.1%) and Oceania (0.4%) led by Australia.
And your point is? EU already shot itself many times in the last 6 years by introducing sanctions against Russia and losing tens of billions of dollars in profit. And what happened in Russia? Sanctions helped Russia to diversify
economy and start producing goods it mostly imported before. Hard to beleive, but retards in Brussels expected Russia to collapse, due to their sanctions. Country with enoromous land mass and vast reserves of natural resources. Just shows how out of touch with reality they were and still are.
I am sort of a believer that small things are representative of a country’s mood, morale, capacity to fight and general competence,
Cyclone Katrina was not small but for me it indicated a state of decline and low morale.
By contrast this little story from Russia which amazingly reached our shores was of a hospital fire in Siberia, where despite the fire alarm and an active fire on the roof, loss of power etc, the doctors and medical staff finished a delicate heart operation. Only after successful completion did the medical staff evacuate. If this is typical my money is on the residents of Russia.
Yes i know it is anecdotal and has no status but it does suggest high morale.
You raise an excellent point here. I felt very strongly after Hurricane Katrina, that the USA had exposed its inefficiency and incompetence in dealing with a major setback on its own soil…in addition, the neglect and indifference of the elite was also exposed. The gulf oil spill added to this perception that the USA was on a declining path in terms of the social contract between government and the people. The major difference between image and reality was exposed for all the world to see…
Russia indeed, offered many more scenarios like the one you described over recent decades …but that is because deep within, it remains a Collectivist society with a stronger moral code, so the imagery that you mentioned is closer to the reality, within Russian society..