Who will run out of resources first?

I must admit, I have given up, second guessing the Russians. They may well have good reasons for what they are doing, I just feel sorry for the supporters now being overrun by the Ukrainians.

Friends should not leave friends behind.

I simply cannot understand the Ukranian/NATO way of thinking. Clearly the Ukraine cannot prevail on the batlefield, yes they can achieve more pyrric victories such as in Kharkov, or when they claimed to chase Russia out of Kiev, but at a high cost, and they will still be pushed back. The people may fall for the victory celebration, but, surely, the leaders understand that the Ukraine is beaten.

What is the game? A war of atrition, sapping Russia of resources, breaking their military power and will? Regime change in Russia? But how is that working out? The only protests they have induced in Russia are howlings for escalation and that Russia should remove the gloves! And surely, when Russia remove the gloves and escalate, that would require an even higher level of subsidies from NATO to the bankrupt Ukraine. How can anyone see anyhing to gain here.

To lure Russia into a new Vietnam requires that the new Vietnam, the Ukraine, has the same sort of resources as they had. And how are Ukraine going to pull that off? People flee the country, men must be hauled in to the draft offices and the only weaponds they have are surplus gifts from NATO and a very limited number of hi-tech weaponds that must be operared by americans. 16 HIMARs was it? That must be increased to a serious level and NATO must committ troops as well. Leave aside that we then have a war between nucelar powers, even if that does not kill us all, NATO will have its new Vietnam.

It has been discussed ad nauseam, but the Ukrainian NATO army is sending barely trained civilians dressed up in uniform as cannon fodder. They are also sending better trained ones, the question is at what the ratio they become casualties. No clear answer so far. The Russians, for their part, seem to have taken their lesson. They are now attempting to recruit prisoners as cannon fodder into Wagner.

A more subtle view on the Ukrainian dynamics is required. Even if an average of 1000 Ukrainians die each day in combat, and 950 of them are cannon fodder, plus all the wounded, then Ukraine with its population of over 30 million (conservative estimate) can hold out for a very long time – in theory. And the more Europe sinks into crisis, the more destitute men from its population will be willing to sign up as cannon fodder for a few Euros – even more cannon fodder. On the other hand, Ukraine is imposing laws forcing people to stay in the country and is also recruiting women. It’s not clear to this commentator what all of this means.

What’s going to happen before winter is the mud season occurring in Northern parts of Ukraine. Some say it’s only two to three weeks away. The Ukrainians are under time pressure to achieve breakthroughs to the North before the the land becomes impassable for their heavy vehicles. Then it will become passable again once it freezes over and, yes, everybody assumes the Russians with their felt boots will be at an advantage under winter conditions.

Cherson ist ungleich wichtiger als Charkow.
Cherson, das ist die Krim, das ist die Kontrolle über das Schwarze Meer, den ukrainischen Seeverkehr und Cherson ist eine solide Ausgangsbasis für eventuelle Weiterungen, man ist dort bereits jenseits des Dnepr …
Ich glaube auch, daß die Geschichte um Kiew in erster Linie die “Operation Cherson” absichern sollte. Im Donbaß war man sowieso schon wechselseitig “eingegraben”.

Und ein Blick auf eine Karte, und sei sie auch noch so idiotisch, genügt, um zu verstehen, warum Mariupol fallen mußte.

Und schließlich ist das Entscheidende, was bei der typischen Internetaufmerksamkeitsspanne regelmäßig unter den Tisch fällt: “Unterzahl”. Und da brauchen wir nicht bei 1:2 anzufangen, sondern müssen da doch “höher” ansetzen.

Was heißt das? Nun das heißt, der “Große Plan” lautet (jedenfalls zur Zeit) “Verteidigung” – und, auch wenn das unschön klingt, “Ausbluten lassen”.
Und wenn dabei die Nato gleich mit ausblutet (ich weiß nicht ob das zum Plan gehörte), dann ist das doch eine “feine Sache” …

this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
These recent defeats and strategic blunders on the part of Russia have led to massive loss of prestige and credibility among its allies. Even China seems to be disturbed and having second thoughts now about the reliability and fighting strength of its partner. Unless Putin pulls some surprise military judo moves out of the hat very soon, this spells disaster for the near future. Relying on General Winter alone is simply not cutting it anymore when you refuse to use the actual strengths and aces in your power.
Seven years for preparing this war and unable to safeguard currency reserves / properties abroad and divert gas and oil sales away from Europe, seven months of military actions and substantial blood sacrifices just to end as a sitting duck without either initiative or proper defenses: with enemies like these, even the western zombie empire will score victory in the end, it just beggars belief!

Unfortunately, most of the cannon fodder sent into the battle by the Ukraine, are not Nazis.

Putin should have won this charade-war months ago; it is clear to anyone with a combat arms background that he is deliberately prolonging this “SMO.” Any so-trained observer who claims otherwise is consciously lying. Maybe Putin’s strategy merely is to accomplish maximum attrition of Ukro-nazis–“the longer we sit here and bomb the crap out of them, the more we can kill.” That is, indeed, very Soviet doctrine, which is what he and his generals would know best. But I think Putin is vastly more sophisticated than this. I think his primary intent is to usurp and destroy the PetroDollar. He does not wield such power, but for 30 years he has openly been wooing OPEC and China to help. This is really why the West hates him. Whether good or ill for posterity, though, these three have been too self-interested to topple the PetroDollar. But enter the stage from nowhere: Donald Warp Speed Trump and Burisma Joe Biden. The combined efforts of these two abject buffoons–to destroy the US Economy faster than previously thought humanly possible–have ironically created the greatest threat to the PetroDollar in history. Well, Putin noticed. Hence, he pours gasoline on the fire! [Get it, gasoline…because…]

Thanks for your excellent analyses.
I think the point is to bleed Russia. So, with a 5 to 1 ratio of casualties, 500k Ukrainian casualties means 100k Russian casualties, and so on…

When I read “Kherson is not part of the LDNR.” I get sacred. Are you suggesting that Russia could allow Kherson to be over-run by the ukronazis? That would be an epic betrayal. I hope not.

I am no soldier, but I believe Ukrainian/N.A.T.O. leadership are pure psychopaths. They have no empathy, they’ve long ago forfeited their souls to the dark side. Their Empire of Lies could also be called Empire of HATRED, against God, against HIS creation, against everything good. All for $$$ and power. Shame on those involved in this madness. Prepare for your reward to come, you’re not going to like it. :(

I have been hearing a ‘debate’ as to whether Russia planned to pull out as a trap to lure the Ukranians into positions which they could not support due to lack of supply lines and fortified bunkers, or whether Russia was taken by surprise and forced to flee. These are the worng questions. Planning involves the likely possibilities, and how thigs proceed cannot disregard to agency of the enemy, or the uncertainties of war, and plans are made for all possibilities, as well as allowing room for the unexpected.

The Ukranian offensive came to pass, and now those soldiers are extended beyond too far, subject to massive attack by Russia, while a great many pro-Russian civilians have been evacuated from the combat areas and most civilian casualties will likely be pro-Ukranian. Russia is still in the best shape for pursuing the goals of demilitarization, and far more competent than NATO. Russia will adjust actions as necessary, such as destroying electrical infrastructure which impeded transporting Ukrainian troops and resouces, whether this was an expected course or plan, or only possible contingency. We can only guess what Russian miitary leaders planned for, maneuvered, or simply responded to, but the basic situation with Russia being in a far better position to defend than NATO is to attack, given the distances and resources available remain unchanged, and Russia continues to grow stronger as the empire weakens.

I read about how the Russuan ‘PR war’ is lacking but I wonder if the Russian military really cares about that. It is fifty years now since I read in the McMillan Handbook of Chess, that while many tactics are used in chess to disturb or distract opponents, such as making noise, arranging seats so the sub shines in opponents eyes, or pretending to move a piece badly but not touching the pieces and then withdrawing the hand, there is one action which is more effective than any others, and that is making a strong move. In the end the ‘facts on the ground’ — the reality — will be the determining factor. The empire’s war industry will have all the US money and a failing US economy, while Russia will the have land and control, and the vibrant real and productive economy, and the western media can cry in their beer.

I have seen conflicting reports about a massive NATO involvment in Kharkiv (voenhronika.ru). Claims that there are plenty of poles and english speaking people in the newly occupied zone, but I think that conceaing such a secret (regular soldiers dispatched) would be hard in the long run. But I don’t think it’s feasible to train the Ukrainian s fast on this newly arrived NATO equipment on the other hand.

Nobody in Ukraine left to keep the score from a simple humanitarian perspective or curiosiry?

The total killed on Russian Allied side I’d place between 5000-10000. Safe margin here but seems realistic

Ukrainian side, well, “they” say 17000 killed/missing, which considering they added a spooky 20000 “Mariupol” citizens more than the UN did, probably means we can safely put it 2x that, so on 35000 as minimum. I’d say 35000-70000 as a range is more realistic. Conservative perhaps to some but 7:1 kill ratio for an invading small army looks like crazy success to me.

Not counting the last two weeks yet.

I beg to disagree:
– war is about trading human lives for territory. The Kharkov operation may have killed 4000 Ukrainian soldiers. Zelensky would be happy to conquer the rest of the Russian held territory at the cost of the lives of 20,000 soldiers. Quite likely the majority of the Ukrainians would agree.
– The overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian casualties in Kharkov where not nazi’s. They were just ordinary men either believing that they were defending their country or just forcely conscripted.
– You cannot kill all people who hold those nazi ideas. Many are women or old people. The best way to battle an ideology is to show that it doesn’t work. That is: it brings defeats instead of victories. And it should be a clear defeat: believers tend to interpret everything in the most favorable way. For the average Ukrainian the recent Kharkov offensive was clear proof that Zelensky is doing well and Ukraine is winning.
– Ukraine can conscript hundreds of thousands more. It is not running out of soldiers. And it can always rely on the West to provide more equipment. The West hates to see its poodles lose so it will always find some way to send more equipment.

I do not agree with the main logic of the author here. Allowing the evil empire to come closer to the Russian border is a very bad idea, and their military industrial complex will produce more weapons to be used against Russia. It would be far better for Russia to inflict the most losses on its enemies and NOT losing any territory as well. I wonder what is preventing Russia from conducting massive attacks on the infrastructure of the nazi Kiev regime. Russia can do this with tactical weapons if they do not want to use nukes. Russia has the Father of all tactical bombs, which can cause similar damage to a nuclear bomb, but with NO radiation. The loss of civilian lives is a concern, but remember that many Ukrainian people were indifferent to a brutal fascist nazi regime seizing power in Kiev, which massacred Russians in Odessa in 2014 and launched a genocide against the people of Donbass for 8 long years. And many people die in wars.

Seems that Russians have wised up and may be starting to use Iranian drones:

A few hours ago, the RF Armed Forces attacked Nikopol on the right bank of the Kakhovka reservoir. From the settlement and its environs, the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Energodar throughout the summer.
This is far from the first case of raids on the positions of Ukrainian formations in Nikopol, but the current attack is very different from the previous ones. According to the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this time a large number of kamikaze drones flew to targets in the city.
If the information is true, then it can be assumed that the products of the Iranian military-industrial complex are gradually appearing on an increasing number of sectors of the front. https://t.me/HersonVestnik/8309

Also Japan’s been buying Russian gas at much higher levels than previously:

Tokyo significantly increased purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in August, according to trade statistics released by the Japanese Finance Ministry this week.
According to the data, Russian LNG supplies to Japan grew by 211.2% in quantity compared to August 2021. In terms of value, imports of Russian LNG soared by more than 380%.

Gazprom is turning east and southeast:

Gazprom is finalizing the details on the construction of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project with its Chinese and Mongolian partners, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
https://www.rt.com/business/562882-russia-china-gas-pipeline/

Vale

We definitely cannot get rid of the analysis and interpretation of the situation in the Kharkiv region and the military initiative of Ukraine. We exhaust ourselves quite a bit here, but it is more important to accept the situation as it is right now, because it is reality and we cannot constantly turn back the clock. We should follow in more detail a number of other facts that are taking place on the ground. A lot is happening, but we all seem to be still in the past tense. I can’t speak professionally for staff decision-making in the army, because I didn’t deal with it, but I’m sure that a boxer, whom you want to knock to the floor, should not wink and announce your punch. There were a whole series of announcements, but the Ukrainians were so eager for success and conquest that they were quite blind. Now that they are in the meadow, under clear skies, they must be regretting their deep concrete bunkers. There is a lot at stake and it is better to give a finger in these situations, than to hit the whole hand and then hit it until you faint. We “commentators” seem to be in the stands cheering and there is horror. Unfortunately, it seems that even greater horror is yet to come. We on this blog belong to a better and more humane world, we do not support extermination and we are aware that Ukrainians can be fed up with war for all time in one day. That must not be the goal. You should not be pathetic for the fascist army and the scum that came from the West. They came with a portion for “lunch”, it should be given to them.
Machine translation

This post might seem pointless as I am going to quote part of a review of a TV show called Babylon 5. This review is of an episode called “Endgame”. It was season 4 Episode 20. This is from https://www.astro.umd.edu/~avondale/Reviews/B5/s4-endgame.html

Quote

Sheridan orders his fleet to jump into normal space around the Earth and immediately begins sending a message to everyone on Earth. He calls for anyone who is against Clark’s regime to rise up now against him, because Sheridan’s forces are there to support them. The planetary defense grid begins firing on Sheridan’s fleet, and the ships fire back to destroy the incoming missiles. On the surface, some military and government people (including a Earth Alliance senator) try to break into Clark’s office. We see Clark write some kind of message, and then shoot himself to death.

The Senator and troops break in, and the Senator wastes no time in completely decoding Clark’s cryptic note, which is broadcast to the entire fleet: Clark has turned the planetary defense grid inward, and in 10 minutes it will fire and destroy about 40% of the Earth’s surface. The command cannot be overridden in this amount of time.

Immediately Sheridan orders his fleet to destroy the planetary defense grid satellites and calls in Delenn with their reserve forces. The satellites are apparently extremely numerous and well-armored (good qualities in a planetary defense grid, I suppose), and so the fight is very difficult.

End Quote

In case you missed my point, it is about evil, in this case a evil leader named Clark of Earth Force and not I am not suggesting any of the current leaders are Clark. This is what evil does when it is about to lose. It destroys all it can in its dead throes. It the quoted case he set earth defense grid to attack the earth and possibly destroy 40% of the earth.

I am not saying for certain this is happening, but it could. People in the EU like the farmers and “Green energy” may rise up, over things like little or no food and energy and “end” their insane leaders. 2022 might be people in the US overthrow their insane leaders. Evil insane leaders might have very little time left and like Clark are planing on destroying as many as possible and “bringing as many as possible to hell” We can only pray that it happens and the World is free of the current insane foolish leaders of the US and EU.

“So, most of what is taking place now can be summed up in this simple question: who will run out of resources first: the Ukronazi+NATO in terms of manpower and equipment or the Russians in terms of firepower (mostly artillery, missiles and airpower)?”

Geography matters. 100km from your nation’s borders are a whole different matter than thousands of km (Afghanistan). Logistics, supply/resupply chains, the sense of urgency, of threat.

Willpower and Staying Power: vs. mere “airpower” and “manpower”. Fighting someone on your border, your foot resting in the soil that is the source of a hundred stories and legends, some which you might have heard from your mother or grandmother herself, is a whole different thing that fighting in a foreign lad, for a cause you don’t even understand.

My burning question is: Is the Kiev regime informing their citizens of the loses of sons, brothers, sisters, daughters, fathers, etc. in a timely manner. Are they telling their people about the deaths of their loved ones in this war? The AFU has lost so many soldiers over the past 6 months (many tens of thousands) I wonder if the Ukrainian people are fully aware of the scale of these loses or are they being told that their loved ones are in a combat zone and cannot be reached (or something to that effect) when the loved one in question was KIA months ago? I think Kiev is treading on dangerous ground if they have not informed families of losses.

A sacrifice happens in chess when one player intentionally gives up material to achieve a different or larger goal. Sacrifices are usually a part of a combination of moves that result in a better position or a more comfortable position for the player who performs it.
DUH!!!!!!!!!

Some videos for today.

Kiev regime continues crippling Donetsk civilians with banned ‘petal’ mines:

https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/donetsk-petal-mines:b

DPR T-72 destroys Kiev regime firing position:

https://rutube.ru/video/0b9af6d44f839a8464e3d42a7292a7ee/

Russian Su-34 carpet bombs enemy positions:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/WqhUPsulNd0J/

Russian S-300s somewhere in the special military operation:

https://rutube.ru/video/7e02c91745b96be8598004def82a96e9/

Russian Uragan MLRS hits enemy positions:

https://rutube.ru/video/67a55e698d5ba819e2676e709a826871/

Russian helicopters providing cover fire support:

https://rutube.ru/video/e7b7e5d5a79d8539aa4ecea6c32fc432/

Kiev regime firing position gets destroyed with drone-directed artillery fire:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/O51zC3AvGMpE/

I don’t think they really care about these little scraps of territory. I think this is more about establishing a narrative of a desperate Putin, willing to use nukes. They’ll sacrifice many soldiers for this. Putin doesn’t actually need to be desperate, the gains do not have to be signifigant – the spin doctors will take care of that. All they need is a sustained advance, so they can point to a map and claim Putin is panicking.

My instincts say something very bad is about to happen in the next few weeks.

Rybar
☢️🇬🇧🇺🇦 IAEA Political Resolution on Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and Its Implications

Today, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted by majority vote a resolution proposed by Canada and Poland calling on Russia to stop work at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and withdraw its forces from the plant.

26 countries voted for the document. Five countries, including Pakistan, India and South Africa, abstained, while Russia and China voted against. Representatives of the two countries did not appear for the vote.

The meeting began with an opening speech by IAEA Director General M.R. Grossi, who stated the need:

▪️Introduce a demilitarized zone around the nuclear power plant;
▪️Remove military equipment from the facility that interferes with the operation of engineering systems and the nuclear safety system of the facility ;
▪️Stop pressure on the station staff and force them to work (!), provide access for the managers of the Ukrainian Energoatom to the management of the station;
▪️Ensure uninterrupted supply of components and equipment to the station under the control of international organizations.

The IAEA director’s speech was based on the technical report of the IAEA mission to the Zaporozhye NPP, the key point of which was the demand to create a demilitarized zone around the plant. The authors of the text did not mention who specifically shelled the station for months: no numerous objective evidence of UAF strikes on the object was taken into account.

The situation is clear evidence of the real role of the IAEA as a supposedly independent technical organizationon control of nuclear safety and non-proliferation of military nuclear technologies. The steps of its leadership will inevitably lead to the collapse of the system of international nuclear security.

And this is a very alarming signal: right in front of our eyes, not only structures that have long discredited themselves are being politicized, but also previously respected technical international organizations.

In fact, there is a disintegration of a single scientific and technical space, which was created with great difficulty over many decades. What survived the most critical moments of the Cold War could not endure today’s realities.

All this is yet another sign of a future major crisis, chaos and destruction of international systems that the world is waiting for in the near future.
#Russia #Ukraine
@rybar

I think it is approaching towards the end. I noticed before the latest offensive one US official mentioning how they should stop reporting the actual amounts given to Ukraine. It should be secret in the future.

To me it was a hint that support and/or supplies are running out.

Knowing the Empire, they will go for broke and empty their reserve holdings of ammo. Before this it was talk about how Ukraine needed to be put on a ammo ‘diet’.

Can somebody provide a reference to access the article by Sergey Naryshkin: ” 75 candles on the CIA Cake”? I could not get a copy, got an Error 404 back.

Appreciate your help.

Dear Andrei

I am feeding since 6 months a page containing alternative information on the Ukraine crisis and its geopolitical consequences. The articles published are in different languages, but the page is oriented towards the Spanish speaking community.

Here it is: http://www.ucraniasincensura.com

Please take note

Greetings

Oscar