First, I want to present the parties to the conflict and describe their intermediate objectives and final goals
| Entity | Intermediate objective | Goal |
| The USA+UK+3B+P | Force Russia to openly intervene | Recover total control of Europe |
| The EU (mostly northern) | Force Russia to openly intervene | Deflect blame from its own leaders and failures |
| The Nazi regime in Kiev | Force Russia to openly intervene | Cut-off the disloyal eastern Ukraine and retain political control of the rest of the country |
| The LDNR | Survive until Russia intervenes | Integrate with Russia |
| Russia | Prevent any escalation | Partition the Ukraine |
The first thing we notice is that three of the main actors (USA+UK+3B+P+EU+U) want to force Russia to intervene. Why? Because as I have written a million times already, the goal is not to defeat Russia militarily, the goal is to defeat Russia politically. Any Russian intervention will be used by the Anglos to “prove” that “NATO is vital for European security” and for the 3B+PU gang to prove its utility to their Anglo masters.
As for the Nazi regime in Kiev, it main goal is to survive, blame the destruction of the Ukraine on Russia and to get rid of disloyal territories. The fact that these eastern Ukrainian territories would be liberated and/or recognized by Russia would allow the Ukronazis to declare an eternal state of emergency, destroy whatever little is left from the opposition by calling them “traitors/collaborators” and to blame any internal problems on Russia.
For the LDNR things are much simpler, in a stark way: they need to be capable of surviving long enough until Russia is forced to intervene.
Now let’s look at what the outcomes the main parties want to avoid:
| Entity | What to avoid | Why |
| The USA+UK+3B+P | An open war with Russia | Unwinnable and potentially suicidal |
| The EU (mostly northern) | An open war with Russia | Unwinnable and potentially suicidal |
| The Nazi regime in Kiev | LDNR survival without a Russian intervention | Politically suicidal |
| The LDNR | A quick Ukronazi breakthrough their lines | It would be a bloodbath |
| Russia | An open war with the US
Taking control over much/must of the Ukraine |
Unwinnable and potentially suicidal
Economically suicidal |
Now we can look at what “tools” each side has
| Entity | “Tools” | Desired effect |
| The USA+UK+3B+P | Provide weapons and PR support | Encourage the Ukronazis to escalate |
| The EU (mostly northern) | Provide weapons and PR support | Encourage the Ukronazis to escalate |
| The Nazi regime in Kiev | Escalate | Force Russia to intervene |
| The LDNR | Survive until Russia intervenes | Integrate with Russia |
| Russia | Delay any open intervention for as long as possible | Integrate with only the eastern Ukraine |
It is absolutely crucial to keep the following things in mind:
- Neither the Ukronazis nor their bosses in the West believe for even half a second that the Ukraine can win militarily. They all *know* that the LDNR+Russia will win any military confrontation, and it is their goal to secure a bloody Ukrainian defeat.
- The main target of the current strategic PSYOP are not the Russians, but the Ukrainian people: by telling them that a) you now have super dooper Wunderwaffen and b) we got your back, the West wants to convince the Ukrainians that they are safe from an outcome like 08.08.08.
- The Russians *know* that this is a trap. The problem is that with every passing month the Ukraine acquires more and more capabilities to, no, not defeat Russia, but to force Russia to take the bait. Remember their idiotic attempt at forcing their way under the Crimean Bridge? Well, this entire Bayraktar thing (whatever this really was) is exactly the same, but unlike the Ukie Navy which does not exist, there are between 6-12 (depending on sources) Bayraktars available to the Ukraine, with a range of 150km and a weapons range of 8km. If and when future Bayraktars eventually fail, as they will, then the Ukies could use even outdated cruise of tactical-operational missiles. In other words, and only in this sense, time is on the Ukie side: the more the West provides them with toys to provoke (as opposed to win), the worse the internal situation, the more incentive they have to do something really provocative.
In the last couple of days, I advocated for a no-fly zone over the LDNR. I still do. But I need to clarify the following:
Any Russian no-fly zone over the LDNR will be used by the West to send Ukies in harms way, thereby, again, to escalate the conflict. Yes, a no-fly zone would buy Russia more time, but does she still need more time and, if yes, how much?
I don’t think so. Yes, between 2013 and 2021 Russia vitally needed time to prepare for any contingency. But now I think that any further delays would be counter-productive: it will make Russia look weak and hesitant and providing no objective benefits (not military not political). Militarily, economically and politically, Russia is now stronger than she ever was in a very long time.
Frankly, the entire Ukrainian issue is just the tip of a much bigger political iceberg: it appears that, once again, the united West needs to get a brutal smackdown (political and military) from Russia. I want to illustrate the Russian approach with the following personal recollection:
Many years ago, in 1993, I spent a entire night talking to two officers of a special forces unit whose main mission was to protect Russian nuclear weapons not by passive, static, defenses, but by proactive counter-infiltration methods: they would not stand guard around the weapons, but they would do what an attacker would do: hide in its proximity and try to detect any intruder even before he got anywhere near the Russian nukes. They mentioned their training and one of them said this: “yes, sure, we study martial arts, but for us to run around a hot room in a Karategi or in shorts (he was referring to the typical outfit Karate or MMA fighters wear) makes no sense. Our terrain is the Taiga, thus we need to train fight, even hand to hand, in full winter combat gear with backpack, weapons, ammo, food, radios and more (50kg easily). In this terrain, which only we are truly trained to survive, we can run circles around any super dooper western special forces intruders, we can watch them slowly die without even engaging them and then, when they will be too weak, exhausted and desperate to even move, we will come out and just spit at them, without even having to fire one bullet“.
1000 years of existential warfare have taught the Russians to take their time, even a long time, to wait until their enemy is at its weakest and you are at your strongest before engaging him. But that approach has its potentially negative aspect: it won’t work against an enemy who was not send in to win, but who was sent in to lose.
If your enemy is dead set on losing, then you really have no choice other than the choice of how/when to defeat him.
Furthermore, the Ukies are not the enemy, they have no agency, the real enemy is the West and it is this collective West which Russia must defeat, not its Ukrainian cannon-fodder.
Even if the Russians succeed in, somehow, getting the Ukie back from the brink (which already happened twice in the past), this only guarantees that the next time around the Ukies will come up with an even more “provocative provocation”. So why wait any further?
So the real battle is not for the LDNR or the Ukraine, it is a battle for the future of the European continent. Russia needs to do what she did to Georgia in 08.08.08 not “just” to the Ukronazis in Kiev, but even more so to their patrons in the US and EU. Yes, the Ukie military must be de-fanged, but in such a way which would force the EU leaders to come back to their senses and give up their current war (80% informational, 15% economic and 5% kinetic) against Russia.
Every century or so, the rulers of Europe like to unite to take on Russia. The past teaches them nothing because they are too narcissistic and too ideological to see that they are the ideological heir of Napoleon and Hitler (and many others before these two).
I don’t see any options left for the Kremlin but to “remind” these western ruling elites of how their previous attempts ended, and they need to do so not by words, or even by military exercises inside Russia, but by action, clear, unambiguous and observable actions. Nothing short of that kind of action will bring the western ruling classes back to reality.
Andrei
PS: I have been listening/reading the Russian corporate/social media and there is A LOT of talk about “enough is enough”. Interestingly, talk show hosts are also expressing their frustration with what they see as a non-existing response from the Kremlin. With each Ukie provocation, the percentage of Russians who say “now that’s enough!” rises. Might this be the explanation for the Kremlin’s lack of action? Are they waiting until the percentage of Russian in favor of direct action reaches a certain level?
PPS: so far there STILL is no evidence whatsoever that the Ukies conducted a Bayraktar strike in the LDNR.
PPPS: Just to clarify, when I mean that Russia needs to act, I am not talking hours or days, but weeks and months. But no more than that.
PPPPS: The Pentagon is now asking all EU colonies to sell lethal weapon systems to the Ukraine.
Andrei, se esta guerra estourar, você, Martyanov, e outros Russos, Chineses, Iranianos, Venezuelanos, etc., enfim, todos os que sabem e suas famílias ( e só saber já basta- talvez isto me ponha na lista ), deveriam ir para um lugar seguro – se é que existe.
Forte abraço e obrigado.
gracias y abrazos a vos tambien!
The only option:the complete obliteration of the Ukrainian Military. After this, the only option for the US a significant US Military occupation in the Ukraine…and this would expose Ukraine as the puppet nation that it is and the US Military occupying the Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Either the US Military leaves the Ukraine or the US Military +UK+‘French+UK homo military get hit with Iskanders
No doubt US and NATO ships sent to the bottom of the Black Sea.
Family members of mine in the US Army have been recently deployed to the Baltics.
A massive US-NATO occupation in Ukraine will be seen as an existential to Russia…Putin will have only one option.
US real priority is China, they pretty don’t care about Kiev, only PR and orders for the MIC paid by you US citizens, as Ukraine has zero money to pay for weapons.
The Facts:
The US is Bankrupt.
The EU is Bankrupt.
Since 9/11, the Western Elite have bankrupted the West by costly Global wars, insane Central Banking Printing, and outright theft from both the western population and smaller Nations on a global scale.
The western Banking system went bankrupt in 2008, but has been kept afloat by printing insane amount of money by the owners of the western central banks: The Western Elite.
The printing of digital US dollar and EU euro, has now created the ground for hyperinflation in the west.
A declaration of Bankruptcy of the US has not yet been declared, because China and Asian societies have granted the US a delay, until December 2021.
The western Elite who is responsible for the coming Western collapse, stands to face repercussion from the western population, when the Bankruptcy becomes official, and reality sets in.
Shares on Wall Street will turn Bloody Red, and the following investor panic will bankrupt every Western Corporation, Banks and several Nations.
By provoking Russia into skirmishes, the Western Elite hope to blame Russia for the Collapse of the Western economy. However, the Great Reset was planned and instigated by the Western Elite more than 20 years ago.
So why is Putin keeping up with the Western provocations?
Because when he re-acts the US will default, and Russia will be blamed for the collapse of the Western Economy.
What is Putin to do? Nothing.
The US will be declared officially bankrupt by December 2021, unless the Western Elite manages to enslave the western population for generations by the “Climate Change” scam, while the Western population is in Covid lock down
Are the current provocations dangerous? Yes.
Could skirmish erupt in Ukraine? Yes, on that, The Saker has proven his point.
But any war will be shot lived, because it’s a Who is to Blame Game, not a War Game.
There is also another large and overlooked factor. As much as the Russian Army has made great strides to improve its combat apabilities it still lags on numbers by a large factor. In a protracted operation against the Ukies those limited resources might be diminished in a considerable percentage. It is the inheritance of IPhone Medvedev who unleashed the notable Anatoly Serdyukov, ” Russian statesman, economist, Full State Councilor of the Russian Federation, 1st class.” You can read his Bio in ru. wikipedia, it is a beauty. Serdyukov left the Army in tatters, and demoralized, despite the victory on 08.08.08. An efficient manager, who did away with divisions and equipment because they were inefficient.
Shoigu has taken the Armed forces to another level, but you have to take into account that it is lagging at least 20 years behind the West, mainly in numbers. Russia has mostly legacy equipment, thanks to USSR, that is being modernized several times over. The Navy lacks numbers also, and the new ships are mainly litoral nature. The saving grace is the Submarine fleet. Armata complex is mostly in the teen numbers. The T-14 will be delivered to the Army for the first time this year, 20 units, to the Taman Division which Shoigu recomissioned after Serdyukiv erased it. This Serdyukov has been tasked to modernize now the aviation industry, it is a very brutal and bloddy job that he is doing, as it was when took that role in the Army. He was fired after a very large corruption affair.
Why is he back? It is beyond belief.
Whether a war would be over in a couple of weeks, is yet to be seen. The objective would not be to defeat LDNR. or Russia, but to bleed them as much as possible, and the Ukies are being armed for that purpose. The Brits are practically buying the Ukie armed forces, are investing in Nikolaev shipbuilding, and are promising their latest cruise missiles to “modernize” the ukrainian army, Interesting fact, most of the regular army personnel are conscripted men from the Donbass. There are the fanatics from the Polish -Austro -Hungarian possessions but there is a constant battle between those ranks, especially when they are near the Nazi batallions of Azov or Right Sector -National Guard, who lead from behind, and are filled with Canadian volunteeers, the children of Paperclip operation.
If war ensues, who can predict if it can be stopped.
The Anglo Zionists have experience in fighting on Russian territory, vis-a-vis their incursion during the Bolshevik Revolution and it would be a delight to have them near Russian soil. There are scores to be settled just from that time, the current ones might pale in comparison.
Russia is undefeated in its territory, it is being probed from the South, from the Stans and that remains the most vulnerable area with fewer personnel and hardware assets. The loyalty or friendship with those former Russian territories is shaky and doubtful, simply because the facts on the ground contradict the “friendships” and treaties.
Just a broad outlook, cannot be complacent. The Russian soldier is the best in the world, he does not need gadgets and thingamajigs to be formidable.
Watch this exercise in hubris: https://youtu.be/ubKB5d3fkfA
I have no knowledge of the readiness or capability of the Russian forces.
But back in 2014 USS Donald Cook was neutralized by Russian electronic warfare system, when it entered Russian territory in the Black sea.
27 personnel onboard Donald Cook requested to be relieved from active duty, when the ship limped into port of Romania. https://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html
In 2016 and 2018 NATO conducted operation Saber Strike and operation Atlantic Resolve, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland with more than 20.000 men, Fighter jets, Navy vessels, Artillery and Tanks.
6.000 US personnel with Tanks and artillery were launched into Poland.
http://bintel.com.ua/en/article/blog06_14/
The NATO operation de-facto surrounded the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, and the only way for Russian Tanks to assist the enclave was through a small corridor between Lithuania and Poland via Belarus.
During the 2018 NATO operation, USS Donald Cook was once again rejected by Russia, as it entered Russian territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.
During the operation, Russia placed S-400 missiles in Kaliningrad, and Since 2018, Russia has extended its alliance with Belarus, and has placed Troops and Tanks in southern Belarus.
In the meantime US Troops have fled Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan to take on China over Taiwan.
The US Afghanistan exit and the British Brexit has left NATO fractured, in a AUKUS vs Central European alliance.
If the Imperial forces backing Ukraine are so strong as you claim:
Why didn’t the Empire take Kaliningrad, when they had 19 Nations assembled against Russia back in 2018 ?
europeans and americans will fight this war until the last ukronazi.
they won’t send their own troops , it’d be a declaration of war against nuclear-armed russkies.
they’ll huff n puff as usually , but ukronazi army will be destroyed n dismantled completely.
minsk treaty proved they are incapable , thus they begged for truce to prevent rebels to march tru til kiev.
This is a bit intressent. Is Russia not bailing out the Ukrainian regime this time?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3341208-russia-to-suspend-thermal-coal-supplies-to-ukraine-from-nov-1-mp.html
That is interesting. Could this reduction in coal supplies lead to localized critical situations, or is its distribution throughout Ukraine sufficiently orderly to prevent that?
By the way, let us recall that Ukrainian gas transportation system is degrading. Zelinska et al. (Modeling and prediction of the gas pipelines reliability indicators in the context of energy security of Ukraine, 2020) suggested a capacity now dropping under 60%.
Back to the immediate danger, how long would it take to set up anti-drone capabilities within LDNR territory?
and Poland has just asked for cheaper gas from Russia although the contract has got a year to run. Gotta pay for 250 Abrams tanks it has just ordered by somehow?
Russia has increased coal sales to China to make up for the losses arising from Australia’s kamikaze attack on itself. I suspect sales to a reliable customer take precedence over sales to some shitstain regime.
“Coal exports from Russia to China increased by 230% over the year”
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7172874.html
Also in Tass:
https://tass.com/world/1355339
“..Termination of steam coal supply by Russia to Ukraine is related to the rising domestic demand during the winter season, Russian Ministry of Economic Development told TASS on Friday.
“The decision taken is related to the growing demand for steam coal grades. Particular attention should be paid to meeting domestic needs inside the country during the winter season,” the Ministry noted.
Russian suppliers will deliver more than a half of all coal grades imported by Ukraine in November, considering that supplies of other coal grades continue, the Ministry said.
“Despite the political situation, Russia has remained the main coal supplier to Ukraine’s industrial and power generating companies in recent years. The share of Russian suppliers has even slightly increased to 68% of total coal supplied to Ukraine,” the Ministry added”.
Ukrinform?
Seriously?
Better?
“РФ прекращает поставки энергетического угля на Украину”
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7173714.html
Yes. UKinform.
The Ukrainian BBC.
The Ukies themselves, in this case, are going to be the best source on their use of Bayraktar at the Donbas. At least for now, while they are gloating.
Exactly like the BBC was the best source for what happened with the Defender excursion into Crimean waters. At first.
The BBC had a reporter on board… ready to roll with the prepared narrative…stating incursion was deliberate. Turbo charged gloating.
Except when sh!t hit fan and Boris had an entirely different story for the UK parliament.
When Boris’s story was contradicted by the BBC initial report, the BBC scrubbed it as best they could.
Sneer at CNN… but sometimes they inadvertently carry something that gives away unintended info…
Same with NYT, WaPo, BBC…… and ….UKinform.
So far, all sources provided, correlate that the Ukies used a Bayraktar to attack a D-30 howitzer at the Donbas contact line.
Honestly i feel war with the west is inevitable. The thing is, the west is controlled via remote control by a distinct ethno-religious group. If that group is say, sitting outside of Europe and North America they would be immune to Russian military retaliation. Its like sitting in a car, and driving head on into a car thats coming at you. While the other cars driver is standing safely on the footpath, controlling it through a smart phone or whatever. The other side wont back down because they wont be hurt. The only way to win is to hit the controller, which in this case is the ethno-religious group i mentioned.
Yes, and this distinct ethno-religious group cannot be named as it would be “anti-Semitic” and a major Thought Crime to expose them and their crimes.
Pretty much, people in the west are committing collective suicide literally by ignoring the reality.
Idiots. But i guess thats what happens when you have political corectness.
Grand Moff Tarkin and Anonymous. On this blog we may say Jew, we also may say Zionist and we also may say AngloZionist.
So, do you two have any comment on this cogent analysis of the Saker? Seems to me that there is neither Jew, or Zionist or AngloZionist in the analysis and all of this ‘distinct ethno-religious group’ is just meaningless in this context. I can say some more, like nonsense and so on, but that would be bad eh. Do you guys actually have realistic feedback, or just a general jewish gossip, where you cannot even give name to cutesy descriptors. Heaven help us with this kind of logic.
OK, ok, I’ll take the rest of the day off!
Seems to me that there is neither Jew, or Zionist or AngloZionist in the analysis and all of this ‘distinct ethno-religious group’ is just meaningless in this context
Thank you Amarynth, some folks just can’t discuss anything without bringing Jews into the topic.
This aggravates me to no end too…
How could you have a comprehensive analysis of the situation without bringing ‘them’ into the topic when they are front and backstage actors in the ‘Maidan show’? Does anyone think that ‘Nuland/Kagan’ is just an ‘extra’ in the show?
> without bringing ‘them’ into the topic
In the Ukraine? In my view, you can’t. And so I am skeptical of anyone who claims otherwise. The problem with this issue is that it does attract a lot of unhinged people, and so some avoid it for that reason. But that is what mods are for.
The Ukraine was ‘their’ consolation prize. It is what ‘they’ wanted to achieve in Russia but couldn’t: a golem state with a demoralized population, a colonial zone from which to extract natural resources (including fair-haired women for sex trafficking), a site other than Palestine to base criminal operations. But ‘they’ have so-far had to settle for the Ukraine, and this, along with the Soviets siding with the Arabs post-67 and too many viewings of Fiddler on the Roof, seems to be why they hate Putin so much.
I respect Putin, am a huge fan of Russian literature (in translation) and wish for better relations between Americans and Russians. I find Putin’s “conservatism” intriguing. So I what I write here I write with all this in mind.
Whenever the issue borders Russian, especially in the Ukraine, the comprehensive analysis starts to resemble and ADL hit-piece. The “Enemy” is dehumanized (“Ukies”/”Ukronazis”), distorted (“Nazi regime Kiev”), and entire groups are smeared-by-association (e.g. Craig Lang in Batko Milacic’s piece). It’s the NeoCon playbook, repurposed.
It is unclear to me exactly who this is supposed to appeal to, at least in the United States.
Russia-haters on the left will never be won over with this, and will want to see the author deported. American conservative will do what their Zionist donor-masters tell them to do. The handful of actually-existing Republican nationalists who do not want to see war in any event will boggle at the idea that a Jewish comedian is running a Nazi regime in Kiev. Real American nationalists will conclude that the author is ignorant of the American scene, lying, or both. From what I gather, the so-called Alt Right or dissident right ranges from neutral to pro-Putin: many are interested in Orthodoxy (some have even converted), and most see in Kiev the same enemy that threatens Russia, not some fantasy of a “Nazi regime.”
So color me puzzled, just don’t color me another revolution.
“…war with the west…”? Isn’t the World round anymore, so that there is always more “west” westwards from any one point on the Globe except for at the North and South Poles?
If capitalized (“The West”) it would maybe be an acceptable term, just like “The Ukraine”. And this category would then include Japan, Kangok (South Korea) , Austaralia, New Zeeland — maybe even Saudi Arabia, Israël, and even possibly The Philippenes & Singapore and putatively Táiwan too.
Grand Moff Tarkin, I agree, Russia is interfering with Israel’s ambitions by propping up Syria militarily, so Israel is acting behind the scenes to cause as much trouble for Russia as possible. Ukraine is one such vehicle.
Of course they’re not the only actors who want to undermine Russia, but they’re a big part of it in my opinion.
From my point of view you are right. The rock in the shoe in Syria is Russia and that sin do not be forgotten by the zionists.
Mossad was running the Georgia program, openly bragged on Debka but these articles disappeared when the project when pear-shaped.
russia & china have over the last 20yrs masterfully controlled the demented empire’s moves as though by satellite, certainly from being of such breadth of wisdom, foresight & insight to consistently ensnare, trap, take the queen, own the board. b on moa has a post on poland & gas…as an example of owning the board. russia has been on point regarding the ukraine, as has china regarding taiwan. i expect russia will use her EW to check the demented empire’s play. simply stop them dead in the water/air. certainly if she can…this is the perfect opportunity to give u$real a glimpse of what to expect.
Excellent Andrei!
And I totally agree re the Bayraktar “strike”.
Before the war in Georgia, in 2008, was there any diplomatic activity/ warning / from Russia prior to the war?
Right now all I ‘ve seen is Maria Zakharova announcing that war would be a tragedy, and things would get worse in Ukraine etc. But there has been no ultimatum/ stern words/ from anyone else…
Shouldn’t there at least be some warning followed by action? The Russians don’t need a surprise to win against the Ukraine….
Putin gave several warnings prior to the Georgian attack, obviously to no avail
I think Putin is willing to sacrifice Donbass and his own image for the greater good of Russia. It is all Russian bluff to repeat the Georgian scenario. The question is if Ukraine has the guts to test Russia’s bluff.
“PPPPS: The Pentagon is now asking all EU colonies to sell lethal weapon systems to the Ukraine.”
Is not it clear where Russians’ wrath must be directed to? The ‘haves’ in the US (and Europe) need to receive a polite but terrifying lesson. A catastrophic yet temporary disruption of financial services, for instance, or the momentarily crippled MIC’s system and the defanged CIA.
Russia and China do not want catastrophic deterioration of the west, such as a financial crash. And yet, the psychopathic idiots at the wheel of the dying hegemon have been provoking just that.
The targets must be the hegemon’s Deciders and their propagandists. Otherwise, the hegemon will continue promoting the bioweaponry and degradation of humanity.
The sinking of two or three US aircraft carriers while in their home ports would do it.
It needs to be something concrete, incontrovertible and inexplicable from a Pentagon/defence viewpoint.
This may sound a bit contrary, but you can not deny to your own military leaders (despite what you may tell your public) that nowhere, but absolutely nowhere, is safe.
If your mighty (though obsolete tactically) warships are not even safe in their home ports then you can be defeated anywhere. (You do it the same way Israel nuked the Lebanese harbour complex with a micro clean nuke in a bag.)
Yes, they’lol point a finger at Russia, but they can’t prove it. If you attempt to strike Russ this is where the S500/400/300 systems come in to their own.
Diego Garcia, 12 hours notice and then level it.
Thanks for pointing out the obvious, but forbidden reality about the Lebanese harbour ‘incident’.
What are the results of the ‘investigation’ into the Beirut harbor explosion? It seems like these investigations go no where; i.e., the long awaited Durham report.
I agree, we should look to Russia to identify and help Patriots identify and undermine the core of the machine, which is driving the western world off the cliff, with minimal collateral damage. I imagine it may come to pass that Russia may end up saving the US and western world if it anticipates the proper method and pressure points. Putin has quite a track record of putting Oligarchs in their proper place within Russia itself, but we have to see how that translates to the wider world.
Putin’s rhetoric already rings like the best of the American tradition of putting citizens first above the Globalist international business interests. His is perhaps the most significant voice of reason in a sea of self-serving propaganda. Even our western propaganda is transparent at this point, they can’t even do that right, and that level of denial is dangerous no matter how one accounts for it.
The core mission of statecraft, other than the usual housekeeping functions, is preventing an over-concentration of power from descending into despotism. A constitution is useful, but not enough. People will hallways game the system, there needs to be back-pressure and citizen engagement. Irrationality has been weaponized to weaken the political immune response.
Many wonder if it’s too late at this point, but that depends on if Americans and Europeans can stand up in enough numbers in time. This is why BS needs to be called out early; we were too tolerant of the nonsense being taught and promoted, and of incremental advancements of monopolistic power upon our governments. Now we see where such apathy leads.
It makes one wonder if there are untried cards left to play in terms of applying pressure to the core of the imperialist Great Reset and City of London crowd. Putin might figure out how to outflank them yet.
While a punch in the nose sounds satisfying, we don’t want to get caught up in an escalation dilemma leading to nuclear exchange. It appears to be a tough time for being Putin, with the dying West looking for a fight like a drunken sailor.
It seems that he has turned more attention towards the cultural warfare aspect, and buttressed the arguments of the American Conservatives. This is quite useful, and shows he knows the significance of the spreading woke madness. It’s a start. What we might also benefit from is better intelligence and whistleblower activities which expose the globalist conspiracy for what it is.
I don’t think he is bluffing,what you call willing to sacrifice Donbass in reality means a massacre of Russians in that area.
OK, Ahoy The Saker,
Perfectly cogent analysis and very good and thanks. But I have questions.
Georgia in 08.08.08 would have been wargamed as a possible response, so, this would be an expected possible action from Russia.
Response from Russia, what would you say (besides giving everyone a bloody nose which they well deserve), would be a short term tactical and longer term strategic objective of Russian action as you advocate.
Would they only decimate Ukie forces? What about the embedded NATO infestations? There is a huge risk here. How will this bring anyone closer to independence or integration with Russia for the Donbass republics?
I see what you are saying overall, I just have trouble in figuring short or long term objectives. I cannot see it play. Possibly because I don’t have any comparison in my head as to sending in the clowns to be turned into hamburger in a defeat. And then? What am I missing? Maybe another easy table comparison – who will win what?
Not all clowns react the same way, but those old clowns might have messed it up for all of us, all hamburger, no bread.
The left always had/has a long time buffer built in somehow, and the right side has no time at all, the place is falling apart with everything still left to do.
I don’t see anyone recognizing this, except me.
Right, ignore me with my questions. A little education always helps and this time it was a piece by Boris Rozhin that has terminology that I understand. He calls this a Positional Deadlock, but also says advantage the Ukies, because their puppet masters can instruct them to escalate, but not too much, just keep it simmering, forever, while they build up capacity. (Refer The Saker’s PPPPS: The Pentagon is now asking all EU colonies to sell lethal weapon systems to the Ukraine.)
So, in heavy negotiations what does one do when you find yourself in deadlock, and you know that the other party does not mind committing suicide for their puppet masters and is busy changing facts on the ground to give themselves a better negotiation position.
Well, the Russians are in an unenviable position. So, in such deadlock, you can
1. Keep quiet (which is what the Russians are doing now) and see if the other party shoots themselves in the foot or if some support comes from somewhere (Keeping quiet is not viable any longer as a strategy for the reasons that The Saker mentioned .. the Russian people asking just why they are not acting)
2. Change something, keep talking, renegotiate a few changes to Minsk for example, but not viable any longer as a strategy because of the possible moves on the ground for the other party and their puppetmasters.
3. I think Rhozin is right with ‘advantage the Ukies’, not because of the Ukies, but because of their puppetmasters. I also think Russia was correct in buying as much time as possible.
4. So, you have to change the situation on the ground faster than the other guy and before you get to legal action in my terms, or many real bullets flying in these terms. You gotta tie stuff up.
Thinking it through in terms that I am familiar with I now agree that war will come, unless Russia changes something that can stop that. And this, we do not know – we do not know if they have an ace card somewhere. In terms of negotiating tactics and techniques in the position of deadlock, they’ve done it all.
So, I agree with the analysis:
Short term
– Call a no fly zone
– Arm the Donbass republics and send soldiers to shoot back at the provocations (quiet men you know .. they could be on vacation from their normal jobs – volunteers – make the Ukies fear real retaliation and first take back the village that the Ukies took – take a pound of flesh – don’t allow changes on the ground that gives the Ukies any more advantage. Change the expectation of failure to an expectation of success.
– In the mean time, auction off the Ukraine. We’ve spoken many times about how it should be divided. Sell, it, go to the market and sell it in advance – tell people what is going to happen with this territory – create some unbelievable outrage out there! For once Russia, get your propaganda right! Wail and cry at the UN and tell them too.
– In the medium term do the legal basis that is necessary for the Donbass republics to rejoin Russia.
– If all fails, shoot ’em!
The risk of acting has consequences which can not be reversed, as does the risk of not acting.
Choosing the right time for one to act has its advantages, no one performs more efficiently when extra irons or sledge hammers have to be juggled to perform the same tasks as before, and it appears someone has tossed a few hot ones in the Ukrainian theater.
“cry at the UN” and everywhere else.
Show pictures of dead children and women murdered by the Ukrainian darlings of the US State Department and by American/European neo-nazis that have been flooding Ukraine.
Continue bringing up the name of Hunter Biden in the context of the catastrophic impoverishment of common people in Ukraine. The more details of his enumeration and activities the better.
Discuss tirelessly the unholy union between zionists (the Kagans’ family and such) and self-proclaimed neo-Nazis (Banderites). Make very loud appeals to the World Jewish Congress, the World Jewish Restitution Organization, and the AIPAC/Friends of Israel in the UK. Show them naked.
Remind the world, and often, about the patchwork of the Hungarian, Slovak, Romanian, Chech, and Polish territories that were added to Ukraine by the bolsheviks (Lenin, Stalin, Khruschyov).
Frame the American/EU/UK assault on Ukraine and Russia as a policy of hatred towards national identity. This will awake strong sentiments among the Europeans.
“Cry at the UN” about each violation of international law such as the US/UK supply of weaponry to a country with an active civil war and the ongoing persecution of the freedom of speech in Ukraine.
A couple of things here.
I think that the clueless idiots from the USA and NATO REALLY thought that “Georgia would be a tough nut to crack since they were all NATO trained and equipped”. I think that Russia’s victory in three real days of combat, and in spite of SERIOUS problems on the Russian side, was a total shock to them.
As for the Ukraine, Russia has no desire or need for any military action, ideally the LDNR would be able to deal with the Ukronazis on its own. If NATO moves into the Ukraine it will be no the West only, they just don’t have the forces and means to actually invade the Ukraine. As for the end goal for Russia, I see no other viable solution than a breakup the Ukraine into several entities. Russia would be linked only to the eastern ones and let NATO+EU deal with their Banderastan in any way they want.
But, okay, I will write up something about that (longer term) in the (hopefully near) future.
Hugs
It’s my impression, that leaving ANY bits and pieces of the Ukraine to NATO isn’t an option for the Kremlin.
Some sort of moderates in Kiev governing mini-Ukraine (without 8 regions) combined with military foothold on Polish border may be a viable alternative.
Mossad was all over Georgia and bragged big on Debka about their involvement until it went pear-shaped. Within hours those Debka articles disappeared.
When seriously provoked, Russia must take eastern Ukraine all the way to the Dnieper and head south-west taking all those southern provinces to Odessa, all the way to Moldova, taking Transnistria in exchange for access to the Black Sea. Cede west of the Dniester to Hungary and Romania to keep them happy.
Call for an armistice and negotiate with Poland, Belarus and where to draw their new borders.
Who’s gonna die for rump Ukraine?
Could Russia destroy just the main nazi azov type units amd their equipment, and leave ukraine free from their grip of terror? Then maybe moderate reasonable ukies could run the nation
they are too embedded. the azov battalions were decimated at the Donbass Airport by M. Khadyrovs men.
Russia can destroy the entire Ukie military in a week or so.
The problem is not military.
It is political.
If the Americans can organize a government overthrow, why can’t the Russians?
“Every century or so, the rulers of Europe like to unite to take on Russia.”
The time interval would be drastically increased if London and Washington were brought to ruin, like Berlin was in 1945…
I suggest that for the present it suits Russia to let Ukraine continue to fester and decay. They can turn the screw at any time by reducing gas supplies. The ukies can escalate somewhat in the Donbass, but the reports are that morale in the ukies is low. And the situation at the contact line can be contained through any level of escalation by “unofficial” Russian intervention. Short of the whole ukie army attacking the Donbass, whereupon it would be instantly destroyed from within Russia, I don’t see “official” conflict. OK, this isn’t perfect for the people of Donbass in particular, but they do have Russian passports and I’m sure Russia will re-settle any who want to leave.
If Russia were to do something, then it will be asymmetrical. Russia has complete intelligence and understanding of this problem, and they are the smartest people on the planet at this stuff.
For every incursion and damage inflicted on the people of Donbas by the Ukrainian government, there should be a break in delivering Russian energy to Ukraine for a few days in a row. This energy should be sold elsewhere, and the proceeds then go to the people in Donbas. The greater the inflicted damage, the longer the break. Let the US/EU governments supply energy to their mercenaries squatting in Ukraine.
I think the notion that time is on the side of Ukraine regime may be flawed. They may get more weapons and even if Biden wants to avoid war ( to focus on China), there are enough US Deep State agents to try to trigger war.
That said however, there are mounting political problems for Zelenskii. The EU is disgusted. Their reactors are past their lifespan, their pipelines seem to be decaying, they are in debt ( and the IMF must look the other way) and North Stream II may compromise their budgets. If they go for war to avoid collapse, they may precipitate the thing they fear. And EU doesn’t want to spend on weapons. Pentagon telling them to buy stuff for Ukraine looks pathetic.
I also noticed that National Interest posted an article on Hungary screwing with Ukraine. Putin’s patience may be frustrating to many but that doesn’t mean he isn’t wise about the matter.
This is why the Bayraktars have been unleashed as a Ukrop PR event, rather than in reality:|
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCwKsNHWYAUwO7z.jpg
I think the notion that time is on the side of Ukraine regime may be flawed
Please read what I actually wrote.
Thank you!
the russians should take advantage of the war by cruching the pipeline in Ukraine before the winter. This would take the EU in an enormous energy crisis. Blame the russians and froze this winter. Or shut up and open the NS2.
Agree completely, missed adding this to my “analyses”.
I agree Russia has to intervene. In “hot-war” scenario no one is winning no matter how we look at it, things would escalate to nuclear armageddon and this is no one wins scenario except for cockroaches.
I think Russia should play plausible deniability card and arm brothers (in Syria as well) to the teeth so they can really make them feel the pain.
If that doesn’t work, nothing will and God help us all.
Thank you for that excellent analysis. As I have said before, I think this is all the West’s desire to raise an economic iron curtain between the EU and Russia in an attempt to destroy Russia economically and force a regime change. I agree with you, it’s not about war. But such an economic iron curtain would be devastating to Europe. Nevertheless, I believe that is what the rulers in the West want. Consequently, to manufacture consent of the EU masses for an economic depression, Russia must be forced to strike first. It must be portrayed as an aggressor. Then the Western leaders will be able to cry “we have been wronged!” And the people would righteously agree to severe energy rationing in order to hurt the “ravaging Russian beast.”
If my analysis is correct, then the game that Putin must play is to be the friend of the people of the EU. He must uphold all contracts and be a friend to those in need – no matter the vitriolic rhetoric of the EU leaders. On the other hand, he must not lose the support of the Russian people. I fear that an iron curtain will indeed fall. And Winter is Coming.
”Neither the Ukronazis nor their bosses in the West believe for even half a second that the Ukraine can win militarily. They all *know* that the LDNR+Russia will win any military confrontation, and it is their goal to secure a bloody Ukrainian defeat.”
Honestly, I wouldn’t be so sure about the fantasy prone Ukronazis understanding anything of real substance. Their Western bosses more likely do, but their heads are also stuffed with stupefying delusions/wishful Russophobic thinking. But what is very much a given is the crushing Ukrainian defeat in the making. And it doesn’t even have to be blood-soaked unless über-talented Gównopolska is asked to take a leading role — we all know how the hyena’s instincts always bring mayhem, death, destruction, and suffering (for the Greater Good of Latin Christianity/Western civilization). The Poles’ God-awful instincts have to receive an absolutely uncomprising and swift response to preserve any prospects of peace as neoliberalism collapses for good.
The most encouraging part of Andrei’s post is the PS where he covers the hardening attitudes prevailing in Russia. This serves as a guarantor for a much needed, committed Russian response and — also of considerable significance — an ensuing sharply rising tidal wave of anti-imperialist victories. So in case Ukronazi defeat is something which Western imperialism is actually striving for, one is tempted to tell the Collective West and all of its lackeys: ’Be careful what you wish for. It might come true’.
I disagree with the following line in the first table
The Nazi regime in Kiev Force Russia to openly intervene Cut-off the disloyal eastern Ukraine and retain political control of the rest of the country
The UkroNazis were released to ethnically cleanse east Ukraine to gain the very rich fertile Black Chernozem for the benefit of Big Agriculture. For those controlling the UkroNazis, it is about land, not people. That is not to say the aim is now realizable.
yes, but since they cannot remove the “separs” from that land, this is just a delusion.
In the abscence of a real all-out UkroNazi attack, there is no need for hard military intervention from Russia. Certainly before winter and before NS 2 is dealt with. Perhaps Russia could confirm there was no drone strike (their radar systems would have detected it?). Maybe plus some video of real drone strikes against ground armor. Have an AWACS flying up and down the Russian side of the border feeding intel to LDNR forces, in the same way the NATO forces do with their drone/AWACS flights?
The Russians also have the option of suffering an ‘accident’ in any of the gas pipelines feeding the Ukraine while they slow down coal supplies. Could take many months to repair with all the component and steel shortages, COVID working conditions, etc. :-)
The best solution is really for the Ukrainians themselves to eradicate their own government. It does make me wonder if Russia already has sleeper cells inside and awaiting as they’ve had several years to plan this.
I agree with you. Russia has had a long time to infiltrate the state system in Ukraine, and probably has a plan to demolish it from inside, if necessary. The Ukrainian state could fall apart in the near future, and the next big question is who will pay to fix which parts of it. I don’t believe that a Dombas War 2 is likely.
My estimation is that the best time for any potential intervention is late autumn.
Why?
EU will be much less prone to react against Russia due to energy supply needed for the winter.
So time frame is late November — early December.
Russia should respond to any harsh sanctions with cutting off or seriously limiting energy supply, like not delivering anything above contractual obligations.
Energy prices would go through the roof, which would compensate for the most of the harm caused by the new sanctions.
“like not delivering anything above contractual obligations”
They’ve already done that with Ukraine. The old pipes through Ukraine haven’t seen much maintenance apparently. Gazprom prefers the newer pipelines e.g.Turk stream, Balkan Stream, NS 2 etc as they can handle the additional pressure.
In absence of NS2 certification, I understand Putin offered additional volumes of gas but excusively on Gazprom’s own electronic platform in St. Petersburg (guess who pockets the transaction fees).
There is only one redline Putin laid down regarding Donbass and other sectors of Russian-speaking Ukraine. That is a massacre of the Russians and Russian speakers.
If there is a gross violation of the contact zone, a rush to the borders, then the Russians will re-establish the Minsk 2 borders and zones. And possibly punish the Ukie leadership, civilian and military.
I don’t think the Russians will do anything other than what has been Kremlin policy since 2015, Minsk 2.
As for a war, there are 20,000 North Wind forces, 30,000 Kadyrov’s special forces from Chechnya, and thousands of PMC Wagner and other contract operators who will do the fighting with the Donbass Army.
Within an hour the Russians will have total control of the air. If NATO intervenes in any way, missiles will demolish those assets in the air, sea or land.
The war will rage on the ground for week or so, at most, if fought like the past. If somehow, the US and NATO ratchet up with deadlier equipment or attempt other tactics, the Russian military will destroy Ukraine’s government and all adversaries within 500 km. Belarus will join them. Other CSTO forces will join in, also, and maybe some SCO anti-terror forces will join to hunt down nazis in Ukraine.
It will be an international, UN authorized enforcement of Minsk 2 and protection of civilians operation.
The Russians will pour out the evidence and witnesses to the ethnic cleansing, torture and assassinations by the Ukies. An INFOwar will erupt as part of the Russian counter-strike.
Any NATO ships in the Black Sea will neutralized (surrender), and later escorted out of the Black Sea.
How big and deadly the war grows will be up to the West. If they want to test Putin’s will, they will lose their assets. If they cross the border onto Russian territory with any artillery shells, bombs or missiles, they will lose their military HQs and possibly their government seats in their capitals.
But, I think this will be small scale, though combine arms operations with a fury that has never been seen in war to date. Ukraine will be gone and reduced to a Bandera statelet.
You Sir, are absolutely correct.
Mr. Khadyrovs men, along with Donbass units they trained, decimated the Azov units at Donbass Airport, resulting into a rout, and then Kiev forces were still pursued and further decimated with highly accurate mortar and rocket fire. RPG’s,60mm,120mm, 140mm, etc.
It was a bloodbath. I saw the pictures. Not pretty.
There is no surrender option for warships. Either they are destroyed or their own crew sinks them so that they do not fall into the hands of the enemy.
I believe there is a term from 18/19th century warfare called “striking the flag” whereby a ship has suffered such severe punishment that it can no longer fight and will lower its colours aka surrender.
I don’t think it’s happened much in modern times but it’s still a recognised act under the rules of war.
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/s/striking-the-flag.html
And there’s numerous examples of German U-boats surfacing and surrendering to UK and US naval vessels during WW2.
Absolutely agree except on the effectiveness of Russian INFOwar.
The West will create a fake photo of a dead Ukraine child killed by ‘evil’ Russians. Like we had with the fake photo on Syrian beaches.
Anyway, who cares what the West believes, as long as Ukraine & NATO is finally neutralized.
Cheers from France.
It will be an international, UN authorized enforcement of Minsk 2 and protection of civilians operation.
I understand you are being hypothetical here. However, there is no way the UN will enforce anything because France, Britain or the US can veto it in the Security Council. Larchmonter, I have seen you think far harder and deeper than this.
Why has the Russian-speaking side not spoken out more effectively on the was crimes of the Ukies, especially the SBU dungeons and what happened in Slavyansk July 2014 ? Was the shoot-down of MH17 designed to provide a cone of silence over those crimes ?
Importantly, Russia would be badly served by a solution where it only ends up with the Donbass, leaving all of eastern and southern Ukraine to the Nazis. If the end-state is a part of Ukraine that would be run by Nazis, then Russia will want that area to be as small as possible, perhaps just Galicia. A better end-state is somewhat difficult, to (1) get rid of all the Nazi element, and (2) to not have Russia footing the bill for this huge failed state. So maybe a total military victory, followed by a peace which is guaranteed and economically supported by a consortium of nations. I know China is everyone’s fantasy “sugar daddy”, but if China can afford it, then it would be a very good long-tern investment.
No one is factoring in Western European disillusionment with their vassal status to the Empire. This has not moved as quickly as one would have hoped, but there is still movement, and <b<if there will be a few years, there could be decisive change. If not, then that change can still happen as France, Germany and Italy taste the bitter aftermath. Russia needs to fine-tune it’s position juuust so, that they (we) can win the inevitable follow-on info-war. A big impediment is the unwillingness to call a spade a spade; Zionists are the real masters of this part of the “grand game.” A quick glance shows hard-core Zionist Jews running the American show for the Ukraine: Victoria Nuland, Amos Hochstetter, Anthony Blinken, etc. No other “special interest group” is thrilled with the potential destruction of Western Europe, nor so eager to receive the Ukraine as a better homeland for Jews (as has been discussed in Israeli media), nor so ready to risk a nuclear Masada, and … with such a tight grip on power in the West. I hope the topic of Jewish Power can continue to be freely discussed on the Vineyard rationally, accurately, and to the depth that is needed. I hope there is no need to state that we can’t blame just “The Jews”, but in fact a self-selected few of them do bear grave responsibility for the tragedy of the Ukraine, including 7 of the 8 Ukrainian oligarchs. An analysis of who is pulling the strings should also shed light on why the Ukrainian Nazis were propped up by the US government, from May 1945 on – when OSS agent Allen Dulles airlifted Wehrmacht General Rheinhard Gehlen to Switzerland and then put charge of the West German BND, where he stoked the flames in the Ukraine until he retired in 1966. Why would any sane self-respecting Jew support these Nazis ? Are the Rothschilds, for example, merely fake Jews ? This is a profitable area for discussion.
We have to consider that the desired goal for the Empire might be to turn the Ukraine into a homeland for Zionists.
A solid array of literature details the few real causes of WW1, but one simple fact clears away the camouflage. One simple thing would have prevented the fury from being unleashed; That would have been a clear signal from London to the Germans that Britain would fight against Germany. The German newspapers wrote that Britain would never attack because both the British and German sovereigns were of the House of Hanover, And obviously, London knew what the German leadership thought. However, against all reason – it would seem, the British government never told the Germans that in case of war, Britain would enter the war against Germany.
We know that a single telegram would have stopped the Germans, because that already happened in the Agadir Crisis of 1911, when the Kaiser backed down in humiliation. Webster Tarpley wrote about this, and it’s still on his website, AFAIK.
So why was such a telegram never sent ? We can be sure Britain knew a telegram would prevent a war and must therefore conclude that the British government wanted war. Britain only had two reasons for war. One was to check the rise of Germany as an industrial competitor, something everyone talked about at the time and since then. The other reason only came to light in 1917, with the Balfour Declaration. Powerful Jews wanted Britain to seize Palestine for them, as promised publicly by Foreign Minister Balfour in a letter to Lord Rothschild in 1917. This would have been agreed in the late 1800’s, when Britain began cozying up to France, its former enemy..
The stories about Western leaders thinking The Great War would be a 6 week garden party are horrible lies. In fact, as Barbara Tuchman wrote in her Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Guns Of August, Field Marshall Douglas Haig was in the cabinet meeting that led to the declaration of war. Haig warned the cabinet that it would be a war of attrition, that it would last 4 years and cost about 3 million casualties, and that Britain would be victorious, but obviously a four year long war of attrition would leave Britain and its industries worn out. So a very high price to pay, as Madeline Albright would say in 1996 in a similar context, because both prices were paid by goyim. Britain could have “seen off” the German industrial challenge at a far lower cost, so the hidden motive must have been strong, indeed.
A corroborating detail is also provided by this very readable and credible Jewish historian: Britain declared on a Tuesday morning that war would start, but not until midnight. Has any other war ever been given a delayed start like that ? This gave Germany time to try to bring Turkey into the war. Tuchman describes the cat and mouse game wherein two dozen British Navy ships could not prevent two German warships from steaming from near Sicily into the Dardanelle Strait, and thus forcing the issue of Turkish neutrality. Without Turkey allied to Germany, the British would have lacked the excuse to seize Palestine and Iraq … Very very few people in 1914 would have understood the game. I hope there is no parallel to 2021, but there is no solid reason to think it’s any different than 107 years ago. Quite simply, nothing else fits all known data.
So we need to examine the twisty scenario by which the Ukraine could end up in the hands of Zionists. Moreover, we can not be fully certain that the Kremlin would oppose it.
Bravo. Why are such things not discussed and why do certain “forces” not learn from the Anglo-Zionists? Probably because it would lead to unrest. How is it possible that the institutions of the state and the secret service, the army, do not take this into account? Explain to the people, but rather live them find this data self? Aren’t they parts of Masonic secret societies? See how important it is to shake hands, to show symbols while taking pictures. Even the clergy of both the Catholic and Orthodox churches can do nothing about it. Bankers have found a way to pull the Goy…im by the nose, through their own people and the mass media who make up such people as “souveren” while keeping people asleep. Money or Mamon is the deity of such complex Goy…..ums. They dont have nationality, like the money does not have. Ever since the French Revolution. Empty rhetoric such as Fraternity, Egality, Liberty is sold to the broad masses, and done just the opposite. Maybe that’s why they don’t bury Lenin in Russia, but embalm him again. Why don’t they put statues of him in museums in so many cities. What is the effect of Elvira and Alexei on the decisions of the Duma and Putin?
¿No es mejor una mala paz a una buena guerra?
Difícil decisión.
Una zona de no vuelo es plausible en el corto plazo.
Recogiendo l oque dices al final, quizas una asalto fulminante a blancos estrategicos de Ucrania con armas hipersonicas, sea la mejor manera de hacer “visible” con quien seenfrenta occidente.
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Google-translate:
Is not bad peace better to a good war?
Hard decision.
A non-flight zone is plausible in the short term.
Collecting the ket you say at the end, maybe a fulminating assault on Ukrainian strategic targets with hypersonic weapons, whether it is the best way to make “visible” with whom West Seen.
Could Russia just declare that they can no longer tolerate the living conditions of people in the LDNR and that Kiev has obviously no interest in integrating them back into Ukraine. Therefore there will be a referendum in the LDNR on the question of admission into the Russian Federation. After that, any attacks on the LDNR will be viewed as an attack on Russia, same as Crimea. After that Ukraine attacks and is defeated. This would be similar to the Georgian situation. Or, maybe even less provocatively, install Russian peace-keepers in the LDNR. That would make it precisely similar to Georgia.
On est dans un pourrissement generalise a tous les niveaux que ce soit en Ukraine ou en syrie ou dans les relations est-west qui deviennent de plus en plus tendues et difficiles.
La position de la russie est difficile a tenir parce que c est l acteur qui ne veut pas d un conflit. Et refuser un conflit est impossible lorsque les autres acteurs ont decider de vous attaquer soit par proxy (otan) soit directement (ukraine qui est dans le cas present le proxy de l otan).
En cas de conflit entre la Russie et l ukraine on sait tous que la Russie gagnera sans difficulte.
La vraie question et ce que les usa vont faire et vont demander a l UE de faire contre la Russie en utilisant le pretexte de la guerre entre la Russie et l ukraine. La je vois de gros risques (sanctions / marche du gaz / echanges economiques Russie-UE / NS2 / swift / conflit direct…). Ca peut aller tres loin et tres vite. Il ne faut pas oublier le niveau de folie generalisee qui regne en occident.
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Google-translate:
One is in a generalized rot at all levels in Ukraine or Syria or in is-West relationships that become more and more tense and difficult.
The position of Russia is difficult to hold because it is the actor who does not want a conflict. And refusing a conflict is impossible when other actors have decided to tackle either by proxy (NATO) or directly (Ukraine that is in the case presented the NATO proxy).
In case of conflict between Russia and Ukraine all we know that Russia will win without difficulty.
The real question and what the US will do and will ask the EU to do against Russia using the pretext of the war between Russia and Ukraine. I see big risks (penalties / gas march / economic exchange Russia-EU / NS2 / SWIFT / direct conflict …). It can go very far and very quickly. We must not forget the level of generalized madness that reumens in the West.
I lack many details on the ground to provide any advice, but I can attest from other governments facing daunting challenges that sometimes there is a way to win without inflicting high PR losses.
I’m not sure if it was Deleuze or Nietsche who said the following: “You get pass the dark area by taking the darker way” (a lo oscuro por lo más oscuro, in Spanish).
As an example, when the Lehman Bros crisis of 2008, the private pension plans in Argentina almost collapsed. As usual, these gamblers praised “private property and moral hazard” but run to the government to bail them out. They gave for granted that Cristina Kirchner had to cave in since many middle and lower-middle class Argentinians may lose their retirement funds and the government wouldn’t like to be attached to that outcome. Well… she and her advisors decided to “upper the ante” and nationalized the deposits. The top managers from these funds run beserk and vented their frustration, but the public didn’t support them after seeing the disaster in Wall Street and comparing against the moderately prosperous local economy by then.
Maybe Putin has a card under the sleeve that allows to defuse the situation by creating a challenge at another level. Gas ans energy supply may be the easiest answer, but it may be other stronger and not easily perceived alternatives.
Just my 2 cents.
Ukies read the Saker…
Kiev Claims It’s Using Turkish-Made Combat Drones in Eastern Ukraine in ‘Self-Defence’
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian military released a video showing the first combat deployment of a Turkey-bought Bayraktar drone in the Donbass. Militias in the eastern Ukrainian region broke away from Kiev in the spring of 2014 in the aftermath of a Western-backed coup in Kiev. The seven-year war has killed 13,400 people and displaced millions more.
Ukraine’s deployment of its Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is being carried out solely for defensive purposes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed.
“Ukraine protects its territory and its sovereignty in accordance with the duty and oath of everyone who serves today, who defends Ukrainian statehood. We are not executing an offensive, we are just responding,”
https://sputniknews.com/20211029/kiev-claims-its-using-turkish-made-combat-drones-in-eastern-ukraine-in-self-defence-1090322962.html
A popular comment confirming Saker view ‘enough is enough’:
Russia is allowing the criminal kiev nazi regime too much. Inaction by Russia will make things only worse. The time for action is NOW, not when their US puppet masters decide.
Moscow: US Demands That 55 More Russian Diplomats, Workers Leave Country
https://sputniknews.com/20211029/moscow-us-demands-that-55-more-russian-diplomats-workers-leave-country-1090324981.html
Moldova a joke of a country..
Moldova and Gazprom Extend Gas Supply Contract for 5 Years
https://sputniknews.com/20211029/moldova-and-gazprom-extend-gas-supply-contract-for-5-years-1090323518.html
Same for Poland capitulating on the gas issue(see MOA).
Belarus Orders Closure of US Embassy’s Public Diplomacy, USAID Offices in Minsk, US Says
tass
Maria Zakharova noted that Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo had reacted in a quite remarkable way to Morawiecki’s claims the EU was threatening Poland with World War III
tass
I don’t understand this:
State Department says Russia approves U.S. airline overflights
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airlines-seek-urgent-us-action-address-russia-overflight-rights-letter-2021-10-28/
Why is Russia so nice with the US ennemy, which at the very same moment asks for 55 RUS diplomats to be expelled(again)??
Russia gets paid for every airline overflight. It’s a significant income and one more way to prove Russia is nobody’s enemy.
…..Ukronazis to declare an eternal state of emergency, destroy whatever little is left from the opposition by calling them “traitors/collaborators” and to blame any internal problems on Russia….
Exactly, what it means to enter with the army and drive the Nazis to the border with Poland. The war is only option and the folly of the government has already gone so far that everyone is disgusted. They spit on everything the Russian army ever meant. One thing is the Sztream chess, this goes beyond any Sun Tzu. This is your country, your people. Since the Poles will use the opportunity to capture their beloved Lviv, you should enter Poland and take Belostok. If the Russian army shows courage, it will mean that they have crossed the Elvira-Alexei paradigm. And since only warnings will come from the west, no one will move a FINGER to help the Baltic countries either, go in there and finish the thing in the west. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan as allied state(center of future Turkestan) to be add a part of southern Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, )without Balcan Vilayet), Southern Kyrgyzstan and northern part of Tajikistan. Introduce the rest of Kazakhstan, northern Kyrgyzstan and most of Tajikistan into the Russian world. They are sick of western fair reveneus.Together with two other far eastern provinces of Afghanistan(Badakhan and Takhar), which will allow you to control Salangsky pass, to close Hindukush and negotiatite with Pakistan and China for the neutral Gilgit Baltistan. Skardu base will be certainly taken by Indians. If by any chance there is a strike from Scandinavia, take the entire upper uninhabited half of Norway, Sweden and Finland and complete control of the northern route. For the Russian army, a couple of months of field work. I repeat, no one, but no one from 5 “fiitness” eyes will move a finger to help these countries. Ether French army. If the Russians are ready to go to the end and If they start behaving the way the Nuclear Power do. The Anglo-Americans will push their vasals, but that’s all. At the same time, help China flood Australia with Indonesia Muslims and crush Anglo-Zionists to South Wales and the southern island of New Zealand. And the game is over. If you are already looking for a place next to the Anglo-Americans on the ladder of falling shit with the same bosses, you and China should start to act like Powers.
I have’t heard any complaints whatsoever from certain folks we know up north. The general consensus of opinion is while the orcs are a pain in the nether regions they are not that great a pain until they kill our civilians. Then one can rest assured that the orcs are taught the only lesson they understand and that is a considerable blood tithe that the orcs fear greatly.
As an aside, the steady wastage of western advisors is apparently an annoyance in the bowels of Foggy Bottom, seems some of the best and brightest decided to go and try their luck against the miners and tractor drivers. They ended up somewhat dead, which is difficult to explain to grieving widows and children.
Auslander
Author http://rhauslander.com/
Never The Last One, paper back edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/152184905 Never the Last One: a Novel of Spetznaz, opens our eyes to a world not described in American news or fiction. The novel is a deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Shocking that the western advisors are claiming their ‘200’ status so quickly. Their reputation is they are ‘bullet proof’, saviors of democracy, the leading edge of Western Civilization.
We wonder if the those bodies come home from some Mideast or African “accident” site, and not ever credited to the miners and tractor drivers.
They ought to have learned by now, at the front line, you can kill grandmas and children, but a titanium fist will be the payback. One minute, to the Ukies, you are the exemplar and the next instant you are a corpse. Welcome to the near abroad.
Auslander, welcome! Oh man, I am so glad to see ya! Welcome!
Ye’lean’chka and I have a long road to recovery, but we are working on it!
Auslander
Nice to see you back Auslander. I was worried reading that Crimea is suffering badly on the pandemic.
We are forgetting the tactical nuclear threat here as voiced by German minister threatening any Russian response to Ukrainian aggression. I hear rumors tactical nukes have been used by both the Ukraine as surrogate and Russia or its surrogate earlier Please don’t comment on rumours here and follow the Saker rules. Any further rule breaks will go to trash. Mod.. This is where I lose sleep. As I understand it, if a nuke is used against one party the other has to respond in kind as an ante in the war poker game. We also forget the West’s desperation. None of their plans are working. The are threatened by the loss of its control of the entire chessboard: Eurasia. China is rebelling and Russia, Turkey, and Iran are running the Mideast. We can’t lose Europe, which wants to deal with China, so it has to pick a fight with Russia to ween Europe away. I think the way Russia should respond to any NATO threat that Russia retains the right to respond nuclear upon any false flag intended to use European soldiers as cannon fodder while they stay for away in North America. And what would be your opinion of a hard “electronic hack” shutting down the cloud, satellite communications, Wall St. and the banks, or NATO?
@Jim G.
” I hear rumors tactical nukes have been used by both the Ukraine as surrogate and Russia or its surrogate earlier.”
Since you post no sources, the talk of nukes being used is beyond the rules Saker has laid down previously.
It’s idiotic talk to say that nuclear weapons have been used.
And really idiotic to say Ukraine used nukes or Donbass used nukes.
Well, you yourself are guilty of this, having recently accused, without citing any sources, the Taliban of murdering folk musicians. The pot calling the kettle black?
@stalker Sarcophilus,
https://yandex.ru/search/?text=Taliban+kill+folk+musician&clid=2112416&win=496&&lr=20765
You can read a dozen different sources for the truth of the event. They murdered the man.
So, wear the black kettle on your empty head.
Post your comments and stay away from mine.
I’m not stalking anyone. I call out hypocrisy wherever I see it. Why should the burden of verification fall to me? You made the claim, not me. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”. I would be surprised if you don’t know who said that.
btw accusing someone of being a stalker is an ad hominem so you have now broken another rule here…tsk, tsk. Anyway, I wasn’t aware that commenters here had a power of veto over who can respond to their comments but, as you wish, I will stay away from yours in future.
“It’s idiotic talk to say that nuclear weapons have been used.
And really idiotic to say Ukraine used nukes or Donbass used nukes”
Worse than that. False stories about nukes used in ongoing conflicts has effect of preparing public for real use without too much contempt.
Being idiot is not sin. Being usefull idiot is.
I hear rumors tactical nukes have been used by both the Ukraine as surrogate and Russia or its surrogate earlier.
This is absolute nonsense and posting this violates the rule #13 of the moderation guidelines: /moderation-policy/
Please don’t post such ridiculous rumors here.
Thank you
Saker, I don’t know if you would rate this source as reliable or as “proof” of the drone strike, but here’s the link….
Ukraine used Bayraktar TB2 strike drone in war zone for the first time (VIDEO)
https://informnapalm.org/en/ukraine-used-bayraktar-tb2-strike-drone-in-war-zone-for-the-first-time-video/
WW: That site is utter ukrainian sh!t. There is no way I would trust them. A different source is needed.
UkroNazi propaganda site with propaganda pamphlet about strike without any trace of facts can hardly be considered as reliable.
this is a Ukie propaganda outlet
did you know even check this before posting your comment?
Yes. I do realise. However. People use metal detectors and find all sorts of treasure in trash.
Just like cartoon bad guy characters give the plot away….. a Ukie site gloating might just have some kernel of facts
Sure, the Blog cited is a vehicle of pure Uki chauvinism.
Yet, The article itself might contain some kernel of fact, as the Ukies do seem particularly triumphant about the drone.
So. Here’s a seemingly “better” source with info from 2019 when the Turks and the Ukies started their drone collaboration.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_engine_powered_turkish_drone_akinci_sets_records_for_flight_time_altitude-1938.html
Another extract
And:
That was 2019.
Obviously the collaboration continued and now, 2021, seemingly the Bayraktar TB2 has been deployed on the Donbas contact line.
Also, on Sept 30,2021 Ukraine and Turkey signed an agreement for the Bayraktar TB2 to be built in Ukraine
~Pic of official signing on this twitter:
Fuat @lilygrutcher
Turkish-Ukrainian agreement on construction of Bayraktar TB2 center in Kyiv is signed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1443244434414571528
The Germans seem to think a Bayraktar was used
Source for this? Ukraine’s “BBC” (ukrinform)
Kuleba on use of Bayraktar drone: Ukraine has not violated anything
Kuleba said this at a joint press conference with Ignacio Cassis, Vice President and Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of the Swiss Confederation, in Kyiv on Thursday, October 28, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.
“First, Ukraine has not violated anything.
Second, we have followed the necessary communication procedures through the JCCC and with the OSCE in order to exercise our right to self-defense.
Third, our partners should be concerned, first and foremost, about a howitzer, proscribed by the Minsk agreements, being deployed where it should not have been – much closer to the line of contact than allowed by the Minsk agreements.
So, for some reason, when a howitzer is moved to the line of contact, our positions are fired upon and our soldiers are killed, this fact remains without any proper assessment,” Kuleba said.
@Saker,
While I agree with this piece of excellent analysis on 4 stakeholders (The USA+UK+3B+P, The EU, The Nazi regime in Kiev, The LDNR), i’ve some doubts about the 5th stakeholder i.e. Russia.
You mentioned:
” Now let’s look at what the outcomes the main parties want to avoid:”
Russia wants to avoid ” Taking control over much/must of the Ukraine”;
because it is ” Economically suicidal”
You also mentioned:
” Now we can look at what “tools” each side has”
Russian tools ” Delay any open intervention for as long as possible ”
desired effect ” Integrate with only the eastern Ukraine ”
What i feel : Russian action(s) and costs associated with any such action(s) should be mapped to ONLY the set of final objectives (whatever that may be). So, if the final objective is only “Partition the Ukraine” as you mentioned, then i feel your analysis on Russia is very near to reality. But, if the final objective is to see “Novorossia on the world political map”, there will be huge cost (both direct and indirect).
IMHO the immediate concerns are:
(1) Creation of UkroNazi government in Ukraine itself was to keep Russian influence under control – without surgery, the whole ‘body’ will perish
(2) Russia shouldn’t delay any more for taking a firm stand – every week delay would add hundreds of millions of $ to the expenditure
(3) Instead of acting like anarchists (partition the Ukraine), act like progressives (help to build Novorossia)
I agree with this. For Russia, the long-term objective cannot be about the LDNR only. But, in response to Amarynth (earlier in the comments thread), Andrei did say that he would write about the longer term in the near future. I look forward to that.
Without Russians on a field as logistic, there will be NO longer term. Croatians assimilated, etrhnically cleaned, and killed Serbs(1/3+1/3+1/3 from their teritories) and now there is no more problem with Serbs inside Croatia, However they have now problem with Serbs inside Serbia. They will never stop. Why, because they are just tools. They have no integrity whatsoever other than listening to what the boss tell them to do. Draw a parallel with the Ukros. Specially if masonic brothers in governments talk “money”. Money internationalists dont care about borders or constitutions. They dont have nationality, like the money does not have.
Saker sad it right………Ukronazis to declare an eternal state of emergency, destroy whatever little is left from the opposition by calling them “traitors/collaborators” and to blame any internal problems on Russia….and not only politicians BUT Russian people. If they buy a time, there will be no Russians in Ukraine any more.
‘Fly like a butterfly and sting like a bee’ may seem the most satisfying answer to the endless Western provocations in Ukraine and other places, but the strategy of ‘rope a dope’ will probably be the wiser one. Why risk Armageddon when your opponents are losing strength and time is on your side?
Float like a butterfly…
That was an excellent analysis by the Saker.
Logically, the exact same argument could be made about Taiwan.
The idea would be to embarrass Russia (as regard Ukraine) and to embarrass China (as regard to Taiwan) and then tell the world, “you now see what they are like.”
It’s a clever gambit by the West.
But it could backfire.
If Russia and China put an quick end to this nonsense, it proves to the world that the West is a paper tiger.
The collective West behaves like an overgrown bully with learning disabilities.
The US Congress is a gerontological case of insider traders and war profiteers. This is the only government in world history, which proclaimed the superiority of a foreign state’s interests over the interests of the motherland. Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “Even if the Capitol crumbles to the ground, one thing that will remain is our commitment to Israel.” Pelosi has received millions from AIPAC and other Israel-first political action committees. If she is an American patriot then there is no hope for the US.
The EU has been reduced to vassalage.
The UK has never been known for the presence of dignity; see the Sassoon/GB opium wars in the past and the Assange saga currently.
An excellent analysis but there is a wild card. It is that the people of the EU and US cannot sustain and will not tolerate the consequences of their governments actions. And the Russian people will support their government.
The body politic in the west is extremely fragile. People are fed up with pandemic and the costs and harm it has inflicted. They are fearful of inflation, debt, and disruption to the supply lines of their lives. The bitterness that pervades civil life casts an pall on their future. Fighting and turmoil in and about the Ukraine will be a match to economic gasoline. The EU cannot survive if Russia cut off energy supplies. A crisis that threatens a larger was would collapse the far over-extended debt bubbles. Soon enough there would be yellow vests with guns.
Russia isn’t going to go short of fuel and can sell what they have to China and get any other commodities needed from the same source. With the US pissing China off so much the regime will be sure to shore up their best ally.
If, as you rightly hold, the fruitcakes blunder on, call the bluff. And do so boldly. Let the Samsons pull down their whole house. And let them see that’s what will happen
John,
I live in the United States and everything you say is true.
Americans are fed up with the incompetency, unresponsiveness and arrogance of their government.
And I mean they are really, really fed up.
Certainly the situation is not just local but global, and as such there’re a plethora of variables and considerations. For example, today is the second and last day of the 14th annual Eurasian Economic Forum taking place at Verona, Italy, where Russia’s permanent representative said a number of curious things to those assembled that ought to be read. Then two days ago at a presser, Lavrov provided a somewhat cryptic answer to this question, “. What diplomatic efforts are being made to keep NATO at a safe distance from our country?
Lavrov: “Diplomatic efforts are not enough in this situation. We need to respond in other ways that will measure up to the security threats the Russian Federation is facing. Let me assure you that President Vladimir Putin is keeping these matters under his personal control, as are all the relevant agencies, both on the diplomatic and non-diplomatic fronts.”
Currently, Putin et al have their hands quite full with the sad pandemic situation within Russia that’s resulted in this decision, “Unvaccinated Russian MPs to be forced to work remotely after speaker mandates Covid-19 inoculation for EVERYONE in parliament.” Yes, Putin’s a patient man, but patience only goes so far, and the current covid situation renders Russia far weaker than normal.
So aside from the response Lavrov alluded to, IMO we’ll see further waiting. The G-20 begins tomorrow in Rome and both Xi and Putin will address it via video link. We must recall that both Russia and China hold the moral high ground over the Outlaw US Empire, which is something that’s not squandered foolishly, rashly. The strategic goal is to defeat the attempted Neoliberal Reset and move forward with the Multipolar World’s People Centered Development plan that’s the global political-economy game changer that will finally end the Outlaw US Empire’s waning global hegemony now that Full Spectrum Domination is completely defeated. And that’s a victory I’ve yet to see celebrated, mainly because it’s still hard to be absolutely certain.
…… slow to saddle, quick to ride.
War Clouds Gather over Ukraine. Turkish Drones Used in East Ukraine & Russia Counters with Warnings
https://youtu.be/Tt_n8h649BE
The western militaries cannot function without satellites. For that matter, western civilization cannot function without satellites. From reading your blog, it seems the fight is inevitable. When this is the case, you need to win the war before the fight starts. It is high time for a few multiple megaton blast in low earth orbit. Victory goes to he who dares! Dare first with fury!
I read recently that Ukraine is telling it’s citizens to begin to collect cow manure to burn this winter for heat. (Not a Baballon bee post).
Another insider reported that if things kick off in Ukraine, China will invade Taiwan immediately.
Good luck fighting a two front war.
Well, with all the BS in Ukraine the energy problem should be solved then!
Hi Saker. Thanks for your analysis. When you say that the Kremlin should “remind” western ruling elites not by words but by action, clear unambiguous and observable actions, I am in agreement with you. I recall recently that FM Lavrov stated that Russia could/would target command and control centers should she be attacked. In a scenario where Russia has to respond to a Ukronazis invasion of LDNR, do you think this kind of response will considered? In light of the B1-B bombers flying over the Black Sea and statements from EU/Nato that they will sink all Russian Naval assets and use nuclear weapons in doing so, does this now bring that option (targeting decision centers with hypersonic missiles) into sharper focus?
Any concrete ideas for bitch slaps for EU so that they wake up?
Russia has discussed the use of drones by the Ukrainians at the UN:
https://tass.com/politics/1355873
“…Kiev plays a very dangerous game using drones for attacks in Donbass, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia said at a press conference on Friday.
“Yes, I saw these reports about these Bayraktar drones. One of them bombed one of the artillery positions of the rebels,” Nebenzia said in English when asked a corresponding question. “I think that is a very dangerous game by the Ukrainians.”
The Russian diplomat pointed out that the use of that warfare contradicts the Minsk accords. According to Nebenzia, the Ukrainian forces’ game with drones “may lead to consequences which the Ukrainian side may not even imagine.”
“That is a dangerous game, and I think that they should realize it although I am not optimistic they would,” the Russian ambassador concluded.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces earlier confirmed that the Ukrainian military had for the first time used a Bayraktar drone of Turkish manufacture in Donbass on October 26.
Russian Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich said at the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna on Thursday that strike drones are banned by the Minsk agreements as well as by the additional ceasefire control measures approved in July 2020. The German and French foreign ministries voiced their concern following reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had used a Bayraktar drone.
The Bayraktar TB2 is a Turkish-made strike drone with a 150 km-range capability, an operating speed of 130 km/h and a 50 kg payload. It is furnished with an automatic take-off and landing system. In 2019, Kiev purchased and tested Bayraktar drones that are intended to be furnished with MAM-L precision air bombs produced by the Turkish company Roketsan. According to unofficial data, the deal was worth $69 million.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Andrei Taran said on October 13 that the Turkish drone producer would build a maintenance and training center in Ukraine”.
Strange as it is, I have not heard of any major logistical preparations for an actual hot war with Russia by NATO. I would expect the Baltic States and Ukraine would have a very short time table in a conflict with Russia (a couple of weeks at the most).
That leaves Poland (again) as the key ground. NATO force would likely focus on Belarus offensively and cutting off Kaliningrad. The Polish Army would be the front line army against Russia while NATO and the US forces would likely make up the strategic reserve initially. I would look for a build up of NATO forces around the town of Łodz if this is the case.
I don’t think the Empire is looking for the Ice Breaker in Ukraine because the neccessary prep work isn’t there for a large scale conventional war with Russia at this time. Perhaps these Idiots think Russia will just isolate their armed struggle in the Ukraine while NATO enjoys a political and propaganda victory while they get the time to prepare their forces.
Russia, however; looks locked and loaded.
Hasn’t Zapad 2021 taught us anything? Belarus is in a military alliance with Russia.
Greifenberg, I agree with the Poland angle. I have been thinking about the clash Poland now have with EU. I didn’t understand why both parts were pushing the rift so hard, which could lead to Polexit, why would EU want that?
But then I thought: If Poland “leaves” EU it has 2 other “older brothers” to hold hand with, because it cannot stand on its own feet: Russia and US/NATO.
Will it choose Russia? Nah, not likely. And what will US/NATO gain from helping Poland out. Only to use its land and people even more openly against Russia, with the approval of “EU deep state”, as EU officially cannot push for using Poland for a “war” against Russia (war in the sense of provoking Russia with thousands of smaller attacks).
I know it is not rocket “science” (stupid expression, there is no new science in rockets, only advanced engeneering….), but for me it suddenly became “clear”.
A correction to my previous comment: after “in doing so”, the words- If a war breaks out,- should have been written. Also “will be considered”. I should proof read. However, I should mention that Martanyanov has written that Russia has weaponry in place to neutralize a Nato attack on its Naval assets in the Black Sea.
Martyanov has written that Russia has weaponry in place to neutralize a Nato attack anywhere.
“Militarily, economically and politically, Russia is now stronger than she ever was in a very long time.
“Yes, a no-fly zone would buy Russia more time, but does she still need more time?”
Excellent analysis as usual. But there is one aspect that is not factored in: how poorly the West is doing and how fast the US is disintegrating. Time is on Russia’s side. The US badly needs an external foe to unit itself behind. At this stage it is desperately trying to provoke China or Russia. It’s first come first serve. Perhaps even Iran, except that Israel will pay the consequences so the risk of that escalation is less.
Time is on Russia’s side. When one is being favoured by fate and fortune, hubris is to be avoided. The Kremlin is 100% correct in its measured and patient response. In fact, what I see a lot of is Gazprom diplomacy.
In all situations where Russia takes the bait and reacts, she loses.
Yes. And this is why they hate Russia so much… Russia would not play their game.
Saker
I wonder if the implications of the US/China front ought also to be considered. I think that China is now enemy No 1 for the USA with Russia dropped to No2, Iran No3. Could an attack/disruption on Russia’s eastern borders be intended to distract them from being involved in a hot conflict over Taiwan (or South China sea)?
I think the USA has decided that China must be weakened economically and (much more recently) militarily. Perhaps they hope that serious trouble in the Ukraine will prevent Russia coming to the aid of China if conflict erupts.
“Russia coming to the aid of China if conflict erupts”.
Russia can aid China no matter the outcome in Ukraine. China is a sea/air operation for the Empire. The Aid China will need in the area from Russia would be ASW and AD.
The Empire would unleash a severe “shock and awe” attack mostly from Sub platforms at 1st in an attempt to take China’s C3 capabilities. Once done and China’s antiship missle are neutralized then the rest of the fleet can move from behind the 2nd Island chain so that total air superiority can be established. Then is a matter of a blockade and starving China out.
The other option is for Russia to look at unconventional means to support the LDNR, to defend itself. Ultimately that is the short-term goal.
Also, Lavrov has been outstanding on the world stage and in supporting the UN Law based order. The UNSC has 10 nonpermanent which currently include India, Mexico, Ireland and Vietnam. And China is a permanent member. There will at least be debate, delay and increased transparency even if no resolution is passed. This is a PR campaign after all and the war objectives are PR.
The “beauty of Russia’s weapons” (to borrow from Leonard Cohen) and the success in Syria must not lead to hubris, arrogance and impatience.
NATO is the Atlantic face of the MIC, which itself is the greatest threat to Western democracy and an enemy of the people in the US, Europe, Canada, Australia, etc. An increasing number of people in the West are waking up, but not enough yet. It is this battleground for the heart and mind that matters. The rest all lead to misery, mutual destruction and annihilation.
“NATO is the Atlantic face of the MIC.”
Absolutely. The pressure of unavoidable danger must be directed towards major war profiteers – the principal shareholders and lobbyists; their concentration geographically is well known. Yet, it is the financial system (the City of London and FedReserve) that deserves the main thrust. Why should the general population suffer due to decisions of the geriatric US CONgress and the insatiable greed of the MIC/Financial Squid’s deciders?
Right now it is all Kabuki theater. I would like to know what you(Saker) think about Russia joining with the WEF with creating a Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution right in Moscow. This was reported on the WEF website. It is getting harder by the day to believe that there really is some real opposition to the brave new world.
I am going to risk an opinion: A Fourth Industrial Revolution is inevitable – it is underway, and this is the reason why the system is changing. A Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution right in Moscow, if it happens, would be absolutely adequate, seen Russian history and its struggle to survive the capitalist-imperialist system!
In fact, at the 2020 Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi, President Putin called for an end to “unrestrained and unlimited consumption” when he started mentioning ‘climate change’. And although he did not attend personally to the COP26, which is happening now, Moscow sent a delegation and, yesterday, Mr Putin expressed concerns about ‘global warming’ and its effects on the Russian permafrost.
The link made between unlimited consumption and the idea of <b<‘global warming’ is what really matters for us – so, read between the lines. The rest is politics – Mr Putin is wisely giving some support (or an excuse to retreat) to the filthy western elites who will have no choice but to put an end to their greedy behaviour with the end of capitalism-imperialism.
The scheme as described of the goals, means and ‘must avoid’ situations is very clear.
anyway, the suggested course of action is scaring enough for anyone not
familiar with realpolitik, which means all of us.
And so the current ‘say, ‘sIlence’ of the Kremlin turns understanble or the other way, ominous.
Andrei
If or when war occurs in the Donbas, do you think the Russians will take the opportunity to unite Kaliningrad with Belorus?
Sorry to ps but, while I understand that this might necessarily trigger a NATO response and perhaps it is in Russia’s greater interest to have Poland slavering over making a meal of Galitsiya, isn’t it time for Russia to give NATO and the EU a black eye, or two?
:-)) Interesting idea!
I also agree that teasing is avoidable to some extent. From this point on, tolerance is seen as a weakness to be explored in an increasingly bold and intimidating way. The confrontation with the neo-Nazi government of Kiev, and the doormat of the West, seems to me to be inevitable. So, as Putin once put it: “If a fight is unavoidable it’s better to go to their house and not wait for initiative on the other side…” Tomorrow will be much more problematic.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted to the arrest of 37 Russians by the ukrainian armed forces in the village of Staromaryevka.”We will do everything possible to protect the rights and interests of Russian citizens”..
You’re making a statement here which I cannot verify.
Can you give a link for your statement please.
Far as I know, nobody has been there, we don’t know if the Russians were arrested, we know the village is in the hands of the Ukies.
And the useless OSCE is reporting that their UAV’s are being jammed so they cannot check the situation from the air. This is from Dean O’Brian – a reliable reporter from the area.
@DeanoBeano1
After Ukrainian forces entered the village of Staromaryevka, the OSCE have now reported that their UAV’s (drones) are being ‘jammed’ which is stopping them from checking the situation from the air.
@DeanoBeano1
Breaking—Armed Forces of Ukraine have captured the village of Staromaryevka, which is located in the so-called gray zone. 180 people live in this village, 37 of them are citizens of the Russian Federation. Shelling still continues and the situation remains tense. #Donbass
The statement that I am trying to verify is the following:
“The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted to the arrest of 37 Russians by the ukrainian armed forces in the village of Staromaryevka.”We will do everything possible to protect the rights and interests of Russian citizens”
I do not see it in any of the professional sources. I did trace it to a non-reliable rag mag. So, can we verify with a quote please?
The Arrest? and the statement of the Russian MFA.
https://thegoaspotlight.com/2021/10/30/the-russian-foreign-ministry-reacted-to-the-capture-of-37-russians-by-the-soldiers-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/
The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted to the capture of 37 Russians by the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Andrey Guselnikov © URA.RUOctober 30, 2021
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation announced a difficult situation in the village of Staromaryevka, where, according to media reports, 37 Russians are being held captive. The department noted that they continue to monitor the development of the situation.
“According to the available information, the situation in the village is difficult. This is due to the fact that servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine periodically visit there to carry out the so-called “filtration measures”.
They impose a kind of curfew, residents are prohibited from leaving their homes in order to check the passport regime.
These documents were confiscated from citizens who had passports of Russia and the DPR, and their owners were subjected to violent actions, ”the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry says.
According to the ministry, this led to an armed escalation, none of the people were injured. At the moment, the situation is defused.
The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that they continue to follow the development of events and called on the participants of the “Normandy format” and the OSCE to encourage Ukraine to stop violent actions against local residents. Russia, in turn, will continue to defend the rights of its citizens, including in the Donbass.
Earlier in the media there were reports that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were holding 37 Russian citizens in captivity. We are talking about the population of the village of Staromaryevka, which is located in the “gray zone”.
Investigative Committee verifies reports of detention of 37 Russians by the Ukrainian military
31/10/2021, 1:12:58 am
https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2021-10-30-investigative-committee-verifies-reports-of-detention-of-37-russians-by-the-ukrainian-military.SkNmeQCc8Y.html
The Investigative Committee is checking reports that, after the shelling, the Ukrainian military captured and are holding 37 Russian citizens in the village of Staromaryevka in the Donbass.
The Main Investigation Directorate of the Investigative Committee of Russia is checking information that after the massive artillery shelling, Ukrainian servicemen captured and are being held captive by 37 Russian citizens in the village of Staromaryevka in the Donbass, and there have also been cases of confiscating their passports from Russian citizens, and other violent actions. “, – said in the UK.
The official representative of the department, Svetlana Petrenko, recalled that for several years, Ukrainian military personnel “systematically violate the norms of international law,” including the provisions of the Convention for the Protection of Civilian Population in Time of War and Additional Protocol II to it.
If these reports are confirmed, the chairman of the Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, instructed, based on the results of the inspection, to initiate a criminal case under Article 356 of the Criminal Code (cruel treatment of the civilian population) and also to take measures to identify specific persons involved in this.
On October 27, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had captured the village of Staromaryevka on the demarcation line in Donbass.
After that, the Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the reports of the detention of 37 Russian citizens by Ukrainian soldiers in the “gray zone”.
They noted that the situation in the village was complicated by “filtration measures” by the Ukrainian military.
The Foreign Ministry said that citizens with passports of Russia and the DPR, “these documents were confiscated, and their owners were subjected to violent actions.”
Thanks – I see it now in dan-news.info also. But confusing.
https://dan-news.info/en/russia/moscow-blames-ukraine-for-violence-against-russian-citizens-in-staromaryevka/
Thank you Saker, your forum has always been an island of sanity in dark and perilous waters.
Has anyone considered that the real target here is not Russia or her friends (beyond the usual requisite sacrificial offerings), but the peoples of the ‘West’, especially western Europe?
Russia has proven repeatedly over the last 20 years that she is no threat to the empire, beyond the ferocious defense of her friends in times of existential crisis e.g. eastern Ukraine, Syria, C.A.R, Libya, Venezuela etc. She absorbs every insult, threat and attack from her western ‘partners’ with an unfathomable grace that defies the patience of almost all commentators. Choosing her responses when and where they have the most powerful impact, the consummate chess player. Never overplaying her advantage or embarrassing her ‘partners’ nore than necessary.
As the Saker has highlighted repeatedly, the empire can bare it’s teeth as many times as the western media think their peoples can stomach, but they are simply not a military threat to Russia, especially since western command centres were put on the menu of acceptable targets and M.A.D. has effectively been taken off the table with a series of game-changing technologies e.g. Avangard, Burevestnik, Kinzal, Poseidon, Sarmat, S-57, S-70, S-500, etc. Plus other more productive technologies e.g. floating nuclear power plants, nuclear ice-breakers etc.
Russia also seems to be head and shoulders above the rest of the planet in terms of riding out the looming global socio-economic earthquake. She is in essence a full-service economy, has very reliable partners lining up to do business with her in the east and southern hemisphere, has abundant resources (including substantial foreign exchange and gold reserves) and has made incredible domestic socio-economic and demographic progress over the last 20 years that makes the rest of the planet’s eyes water. So as much as a breakdown in relations & trade with western Europe may hurt Russia, she will, as always, struggle through. My Russian friends assure me that corruption and brutality is still a big problem there, but a brief glance at non-MSM media will quickly show that here in western Europe, it is no picnic in that department. We are being stripped of our rights and voices at a frightening pace.
From my perspective, disconnecting Russia (and her vital energy supplies) from Europe through a Ukrainian provocation, ties neatly with the wholly engineered supply chain throttling (most notably Chinese goods) that we are currently experiencing. Two years of lockdowns that have all but destroyed small independent businesses and made many millions of working & middle class people state-dependent, physically & mentally weakened, isolated and terrified. This has been accompanied by periodic shortages of food, energy and essential goods. At the same time, our corporate elites have amassed immense power and wealth, including a pharmaceutical industry that Deloitte and PriceWaterhouseCooper had projected to be bankrupt by 2020! Pure coincidence I imagine!
The impeccable ‘fumbling’ of our political elites during this time have caused utter chaos e.g. constantly changing, contradictory and draconian medical directives that have paralysed most of the continent, the previously mentioned supply chain debacles, scuppered trade deals, migrant madness (incidentally, it seems that Africa is being completely emptied of anyone of an age that would be capable of defending their countries. Juicy fruit for a 21st century colonial adventurer). These have left the people of Europe weak, dazed and confused. Ready for the knockout punch of a winter without road-borne food, ship-borne essential goods and if the empire gets it’s way in Ukraine; a wonderful excuse to remove Russian energy supplies.
It seems to me that we are on the brink of an overt totalitarian coup in western Europe, the flavour of which is not particularly relevant, call it communist (obedient citizen or state enemy) or fascist (employee or disposable product), either way a marriage of state and corporation, we are just the cattle to be milked or slaughtered as required (I know, very melodramatic).
I imagine that for this cheery casting of the chicken bones to come to pass, an eastern Ukrainian provocation would be timed to justify an indignant rejection of Russian energy supplies, just as winter starts to bite hardest.
Time will tell, I hope I’m proved completely wrong.
Once again, thank you Saker, I always look forward to your analyses.
I’m reading it like you AI.
The devil has realised in recent years that he can’t have it all. Not now anyway.
And evil must go on. So it turns inward.
I’m worried too that the week off work Mr Putin has declared might be significant.
Extremely interesting an article by Anatol Lieven: “Divining Putin: What Russia is willing to do (or not) for its own interests”
@ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/10/27/divining-putin-what-russia-is-willing-to-do-or-not-for-its-own-interests/
“Genuine U.S. military commitment to Ukraine would imply a readiness simultaneously to fight an air-ground war with Russia in Ukraine and an air-sea war with China in the Far East — since, as several Russians pointed out to me, any U.S. Russian war would probably lead immediately to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Quite apart from the strategic lunacy of such a course, and the strong likelihood of defeat on both fronts, preparation for two wars would send the U.S. defense budget, and either U.S. taxes or debts, through the roof, and any domestic infrastructure program down the toilet”.
Thanks for posting this.
The advantage of this guy, Lieven, is he offers a way out for the West to de-escalate the Ukrainian crisis.
However, he mis-understands the China- Russia relationship. (one side “playing off” the other?)
Also he laments West’s military position being weakened by Turkey’s defection, which “would cut Western navies off from the Black Sea”… well, aren’t Bulgaria and Romania both part of NATO…?
I listened to Mercouris’ analysis, and while he does extensively comment on this, Mercouris’ analysis goes much further and is much better.
Important in Lieven’s relation is this passage: ”several Russians pointed out to me, any U.S. Russian war would probably lead immediately to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan”.
Why not have the breakaway districts like LDNR declare to be an independent country with its’ own government and have Russia and maybe even China and any other state recognize it. That should solve the Russian interference issue.
Because its a trap: LDNR declaring independence from Ukraine and been recognised by Russia and China, opens the door for a similar pattern for Taiwan been recognised by USA and other allied countries. Taiwan is LDNR equivalent for China.
That’s an important point I haven’t seen before. Thanks.
“LDNR declaring independence from Ukraine” should not be an issue for China. The contexts to the separatists in LDNR & Taiwan are not the similar. Maidan was a violent coup that killed civilians & toppled the elected Yanukovich. Following that was the violent killing of a bus load of eastern Donbass Ukrainians, assasinations & continued bombing inspite of Minsk 1 & ceasefires. Continued resistance & subsequent policy to allow independence for LDNR but still resisted by Ukraine. As for Taiwan, China has not used force nor overtly interfered but has consistently expressed a peaceful reunification. Taiwanese businesses are a much welcomed integral part of China. China does not push Taiwan away but works to integrate the island into its orbit & bosom. It is the DPP leadership under current president Cai who is foolishly colluding or cooperating w/the US in the hope of not being assimilated into the mainland. The One-China policy is endorsed by the UN, & affirmed by the USA. Taiwan has been resisting reunification since Cai came into power. It is divisive and she is playing w/fire. LDNR independence is self-preservation not suicidal.
I agree with your comment about LDNR. Theirs and Taiwan’s histories are very different. However, when you say that It is the DPP leadership under current president Cai who is foolishly colluding or cooperating w/the US in the hope of not being assimilated into the mainland, I guess you mean that the Taiwanese president obeys the foolish elite of the country, composed of the original elite and some newcomers from China who came to invest — and get profits without restrictions. The Taiwanese people understand what is going on; but, like people almost everywhere else in the western world, they cannot do much to change the situation.
Obviously, China knows very well that the majority of the people in Taiwan see themselves as Chinese. After all, Taiwan was China before the Chinese civil war. It is just a question of time till the country becomes part of China, again.
I think Russia needs to play chess here.
1. Hit few Israeli fighter jets with their missiles in the next time Israel comes to attack Syria.
2. Begin talks with China about providing vital information about submarine building.
Certainly Israel has agents within Russia who would strike back with acts of terror in Russia as they routinely do in Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Russia would find its top scientists suddenly blown up with car bombs and in fire-bombed laboratories. Israel has the entire world infiltrated, probably even the Vatican. Everyone treats them with kid gloves, call it Semitic Privilege.
Really? I think this is a lot of propaganda….
Saker / Andrei, thanks for the informative column.
In the micro-view, I imagine Russia is trying to ‘time’ any military moves around EU’s need for energy. The EU (especially Germany) is heading into Winter with low gas reserves. Do what is now near-inevitable in the near future, and Russia has the EU (especially Germany) over a barrel. Shut-down Nord Stream 2, and watch your citizens and businesses suffer. Tough choice. Delay any military moves until Spring, and that choice gets easier…
In the macro-view, Russia needs to find a way to make the elites (the True elites) – who are promoting the Action – really suffer if they don’t back off. It does no good in the long term for Russia to leave the True elites untouched. They have no downside to promoting further Action. Russia has to find the ‘soft points’ in the True elites. Then, Russia has to let them know that those ‘valuables’ (collections/chateaus/yachts/people) are at risk if they keep pushing. Make sure they know it is not an idle threat. Always strike at the head of the snake, not the tail…
This is an existential war. It can go on for 1-10-100-1000 years. They are prepared. Hope Rus is too. That’s the long and short of it.
‘Rus’ is prepared since 1000 years back!
Russia will not intervene in the civil war in Ukraine. Russia will support the Donbass to defend itself. Its worked for the past 8 years no reason to change it now. If the Ukraine had the ability to drag Russia into a war it would of already happened. US/NATO in Ukraine simply have no options.
Both Russia and China are currently being threatened by US/NATO with nuclear weapons in a very desperate way. Here is where i believe the driver for this desperate behavior is……….FIAT dollars and the coming collapse.
Rising inflation is signaling the US dollar is collapsing and my guess is that the global elite know it. The FED’s only task is to control inflation……….but its continuing to rise, almost like they have lost control? Which i believe they have. Here is why i say this……………..
There is no constraint on FIAT money, its created by a keyboard. The risk to endless FIAT money is that legislators will issue more FIAT currency than there are resources to spend it on and unchecked rising inflation tells me that they have reached this point. The US elite have exhausted the goose that lays the golden eggs.
US/NATO will attack Russia and China simultaneously, a 1st strike last ditch effort. I hope i am wrong.
Fed, ECB, BOE etc don’t rise the rates because it is simply IMPOSSIBLE.The all house of ponzi would collapse as when you increase rates, stocks go down.They are trapped in QE mode since Lehman collapse, their only option is to pretend everything is ok, under control, there is a ‘temporary’ inflation etc….it may be long before any collapse as we are witnessing the biggest transfert of wealth ever on this planet from the, let’s say the 90% to the 5, maybe soon 1% or even less(0.001)%.
There is a moment it is not manageable anymore as people can not pay their credits, rents, energy and then simply..food(it will start in Africa and Latin America + in poor asian countries first).The politics and oligarchs in power are just cashing the maximum before the final collapse.Until then they will continue to print fiat money as if there is no tomorow and no limit. Manipulate all stats, data..They can not ‘rew’ their system.The other option is chaos and wars, but when you see these idiots leaving Kabul like bandits after a missed bank attack..I would not bet one single dollar on the issue.Nuclear war is not possible, even a moderate first strike, as it would destroy their ‘green narrative(greta is not going to like nuclear winter) forever and the ‘success’ is far from certain.
They love their cosy life, confort and money far too much to risk to lose it(on all sides).
Even ukie statements are P R.Zio ukies oligarchs have zero intention to start a real war, just being prostitute for the West and steal as much money as possible is ok for them.
If you can derail and jail the Western leaderships by lawfare, why would you want to go to war instead? I assume that the Kremlin (and many other governments too) know enough about the real perpetrators of 9/11/2001 to wipe the floor with them. The same applies to the origins and abuse of SARS-CoV-2.
Unfortunately, Russia seems to think that lawfare would hurt her interests – which speaks volumes about the real rulers of the world.
The Russian leadership is teaming up with the World Economic Forum and the push for the Fourth Industrial Revolution by setting up a center in Moscow. I got this info right odd of the WEF website. If this is indeed true, then all of this posturing by Russia is a big ruse, and they are in on the scam. Just using the situations to peddle there arms, just like the US. I asked the Saker to comment on it, but nothing of it yet.
I think you have a profound misunderstanding here. These to my observation come from taking part in too much alt-media that is just the polar opposite of msm, and presents the other side of the coin without any reason.
One of Russia’s high tech companies will be part of the technology talk shop managed by the World Economic Forum, so, Russia will be a member through this. They will talk about things. They talk about things such as blockchains, distributed ledgers, drone technology, medical technology, scalar stuff, standards for stuff like facial recognition scanning, internet of things and so on. A technology talk shop, just like the Valdai Club.
It does not make the Russian Leadership team up with any push for any Fourth Industrial Revolution as if this stuff is scary. Heavens, we are in the space age.
Understand, you are living in the Fourth Industrial Revolution and if Russia was not talking about these things, she would not be doing her job as a leadership.
We’ve lived now through 3 industrial revolutions. We will live through this one as well
The First Industrial Revolution – water and steam for mechanisation.
The Second – electricity
The Third – electronics
The Fourth – digital and very very fast.
Our job as human beings is going to be to understand our own interface with technology and choose what we want to use and whatnot.
Or did you want Russia to hide away in the basement from an industrial revolution that the world is already in?
The fourth industrial revolution is about replacing ‘majority’ workforce with automation. As an example: majority software developers will be replaced by AI and lose their jobs. There already is a prototype of an AI system that can automagically develop advanced software programs.
Oh sure, and we use them daily – cookie cutter. It makes us faster and more effective. But, they can’t dance, and they can’t sing too well, and they cannot create creatively and they cannot write real good code – the stuff that is needed if we have to move to a new paradigm. It’s made up of people you know – The individual or those that want to work together is way ahead of any AI programming method.
Meet me in the Cafe. This is off-topic.
Most developers are cookie cutters anyway, they will be replaced.
“There already is a prototype of an AI system that can automagically develop advanced software programs.”
Nonsense. An assertion without any evidence.
I worked with a 4GL for many years that was a lot easier to program than any of the stuff young people are taught to use these days.
“Nomad Software”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomad_software
Why now?
And is this linked to recent events in Taiwan, Syria, Serbia, Iran,etc.?
Could it be that The West is planning to erupt all these places at once because they think it will be advantageous to them? Or is it that that all the different factions within the US are carrying out their own foreign and military policy?
Jiri, same impression here: EU$A is intensifying proxy wars on 3 fronts — East of Russia, East of China and West of Iran. Perhaps it is time for those 3 big countries — Russia, China and Iran — to cooperate: simultaneously launch 3 counter strokes, each to proclaim who really owns one of those 3 border areas.
Just saying.
Bravo. From north side with aSarb-aian till Kura river. So called Talish land. Also to leave Iran with Kurdish fighters to deal with Turkey. Not to blow them away as a israel proxies. They had enough time to learn a school what kind of allies Anglo-Cynoists are all about. Armenia should stay independant, between Araks and Kura rivers as a separate “tampon zone” identity. It will calm the spirits in the Caucasus and prepare field for Georgian final solution.
The reality which must always be kept in mind is that UKRAINE IS FINISHED. As all who were paying attention when the Odessa Massacre at the House of Unions know, Ukraine was over on that hideous day. Whatever the long-term outcome, in no future will there be a ”Ukraine”. ”Ukraine” has no more right to exist than does the genocidal entity known as ”Israel”. But ”Ukraine” NEVER BECAME a real nation, from its bogus incorporation in 1919 by the German High Command.
Russia and Putin obviously don’t give a rats’ ass what kind of mess ”Ukraine” breaks up into, but the Kremllin will be making certain those fractured entities are a millstone atound the neck of the Euro-trash and their Yanqui masters.
NATO war plans:
https://antibellum679354512.wordpress.com/
I’m reminded of an old comedy sketch where a General is informing a hapless underling of the need to volunteer to take part in a ( suicidal ) ‘futile gesture.’
Other than limited numbers of truly rabid ultra nationalists, the majority of young Ukrainians that would be called upon to sacrifice their lives in order to further the plans of ( safely remote ) elites in Ukraine, Europe & the US are to be pitied. Every attempt should be made to avoid a return to open warfare.
Dear Sir Andrei,
Your analysis in re to Ukraine is spot on, Благодарю и Спаси Христос! Now I perceive everything east of the Dniepr and including Odessa plus southern Ukraine as becoming Russian territory and in awhile Kiev too, and the rest becoming part of Poland and Закарпатий belonging to Hungary. What am I missing?
Perhaps I haven’t been following this blog as closely as I should. **Who are the 3B?** Belgium, Britain, and one other. I can’t believe the 3rd B is Belarus so who is it?
@GG, 3B= Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
3B = 3 Baltics. Estonia Lithuania Latvia.
Sometimes +P is mentioned / added.
Being Poland.
IIRC 3B refers to the three Baltic states.
Screen shot Flight Radar 24:
Manu Gómez
@GDarkconrad
12h
Ukranian Bayraktar TB2 UAV departed Mykolaiv.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1454164380677984257
2/ >It´s not difficult to guess where TB2 is heading to.
/(Flight radar screenshot)/
Merco Marz
@MarzMerco
8h
Replying to
@GDarkconrad
Direction of central Donbass province.. Not difficult for who followed this topic before, but many on Twitter haven’t..
————
EndGameWW3 @EndGameWW3
Update: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “The use by Ukraine of Turkish drones in the conflict in Donbas is defensive and does not violate any agreement.”
———————
Fuat @lilygrutcher
Ukrainian Army deputy chief of staff Serhiy Nayev says new Bayraktar attacks on separatist positions in Donbass will come soon.
———-
Big Bang toys on the move
https://mobile.twitter.com/galandecZP
Iskander spotted /posted widely on the twitz.
Geolocation here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/galandecZP/status/1453979673801732096
Beyond the Donbass and Ukraine, what is happening is the redefinition of international relations into a tri-polar antagonistic world for an eternal war. The USA and its minions are being organized around the wokes values. China around the PCC and family value and Russia around a soft nationalism and family value.
This Orwellian world is becoming a real nightmare. A collapse of the A-zone cannot be excluded. I live there and I wish it. I see 2 active forces in this process of dislocation. The first one is the internal contradictions and chaos in the A-zone, mainly in the USA. The second is the existential antagonism between the leaders of zone B and the leaders of zone A. It seems to me that while preparing for the hot war the leaders of zone B think that it is not necessary to interrupt the enemy when he makes mistakes.
As a simple citizen aware of what is at stake, it is very uncomfortable to see the dictatorship that is being set up without being able to fight. In Zermatt, Switzerland, concrete blocks are currently blocking the businesses that refuse the health pass. Switzerland is experiencing the beginning of a slow kristall nacht.
https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/des-blocs-de-beton-pour-faire-fermer-le-resto-qui-refusait-le-certificat-170252917257
I hope that the disruption of supply chains and the systematic policy of printing money ex-nihilo will destroy the A-zone. But if there are no changes in the leadership, I fear that dictatorship will set in. Let us not forget that Hitler was born in the ashes of the Weimar Republic.
For Russia and China the time for hot war will come after the economic collapse and before the rearmament (but hasn’t the latter already started).
This is a rational and reasonable analysis.
The problem is that the West isn’t acting rationally nor reasonably… So you cannot use this methodology to predict the future.
I f I may ask a rhetorical question: when was the last time the US attacked an adversary worthy of its power?
At the very height of their power they backed down from Georgia (and then Syria), at a time when Russia was at its weakest. Now that their armed force is at its weakest, and their adversaries at their strongest, the US would suddenly muster the guts to take on Russia in Ukraine (and why not also China in Taiwan while we’re at it)?
I think the latest events in Ukraine are given way to much importance at this stage. Recall that the reason the US subverted Ukraine in the first place was to cut Europe from Russian gas in order to open the market to US shale gas. Germany jumped on board because its North stream would give it increased leverage against their European counterparts. Now that this plan has long fallen apart, the only reason the US is keeping the chaos going is to prevent the region to stabilize and thus integrate the Russo-European economies. Germany doesn’t mind since it ultimately consolidates (through Russian gas) its influence amongst core Europeans. Everything else is cogitation of secondary players’ interests, and there’s no way I can see that the US would openly expose itself for the sake of such. Or am I missing something?
@Tarik
Thank you for saving me of describing exactly the same point of view as yours. You do not miss anything. Only left few questions open.
Like ” What are the real reasons for stunts like this drone-situation?” My 2 cents are that we are witnessing huge increase of US dominance in information war.
Meaning that, being addicted to internet, we are prone to be biased into any direction US want.
Of course there are limits to this. It is impossible to make visitors of this forum suddenly fall in love with US policy. But it is possible to make us consider possibility of US waging war on two or more fronts, at the same time, while maintaining businnes as usual in the West.
Like Andrei, I see war in Ukraine incoming fast. Have no doubt of that. But after reality check I am confused. Something is wrong with this picture. This BigMac is nothing like that on the add.
So my wild guess is that we are mentaly jammed with full spectrum disinformation, and should rely ONLY on crosschecking of bulletproof data from reliable sources.
What realy happened: Ukies attacked with flying contraption capable of carying 65kg payload at speed of car, the same opponent that destroyed their whole airforce years ago.
How it looks like: paradigm shift on the battlefield.
The main advantage of drones is “courage” of it’s pilots having the opportunity to respawn in another drone after being “killed”. The other is surprise factor. After initial losses, droned militaries quickly and effectively adapt to the new threat.
In the end, $60+ millions of UKUS money burned for the loss of couple of artilery pieces and multiple decoys?
Fair trade.
Thank you for your comment Blackring.
As far as the “drone situation” is concerned I base my opinion on the following.
1- Zelensky (whatever his name is) is no statesman, He’s a performer and his director is from somewhere in the US.
2- Financial aid Ukraine receives from the US are some pitiful millions of US$s thrown every now and then and over which the Ukrainian “elite” scrambles. The amount you throw at a project is usually a good indicator of its importance. If the Ukraine was being prepped for a major confrontation (or any other role), we’d be seeing billions (not millions) invested in its army and economy. It is however sufficient to maintain the status quo.
3- The insipid financial aid they receive also explains Turkish drones instead of US ones that are an order of magnitude more expensive. And no, I do not believe that Erdogan has any views on Crimea or any grand Neo-Ottoman ambitions. It is merely rhetoric, in this case to justify a very pragmatic drone contract.
Conclusion: a huge tempest in a cup of tea (imho).
Cheers
What if Viktor Yanukovych returns from exile and starts a rebellion from DPR/LPR with aim to spread to whole Ukraine, taking over regions one by one, marching slowly towards Kiev? I know it sounds like a cheep Hollywood script, but just imagine the horror within collective west and their puppets in Ukraine. Sure thing, Russia might already have logistics in place for such a scenario, and just like NATO is supporting current leadership Russia can have them taste their own bitter medicine through chain of “color” revolutions in many unexpected places.
Alternative would be: “If the fight is inevitable, throw the first punch. I learned it on streets of St. Petersburg.”
I was thinking similar thoughts. More specifically, I was wondering if there is any substantial fifth column opposing the UkroNazis and ZioNazis within Ukraine, or localized regions within Ukraine. There are many ethnic Russians residing outside of the Donbas. Perhaps they would/could/should rise up and launch a counter revolution against the original US-led coup d’etat of 2014 if or when Zelinski’s storm troopers try to invade the Donbas republics. Seems to me that they have every right to do so and Washington should have absolutely no say in the matter. One would hope that such people are being armed and trained even as we speculate about their existence.
Washington and their UkroNazi stooges are such blatant hypocrites. They disingenuously say they want peace, but all they have to do to get it is to keep their word regarding the Minsk Accords, which are such a small concession in return for the old borders all the way to Russia in the Donbas. Just give those people home rule in their own elections and Kiev still dictates all foreign policy throughout the realm. They just have to digest the fact that Crimea will never be theirs again, if in fact it ever was. But the reality is that Washington and the UkroNazis do NOT want peace. They want a festering war on Russia’s border to last forever, or until they believe that Russia will suffer an existential collapse for a third time in modern history as a result of their incessant provocations. The delusional fools give themselves far too much credit and importance in the hegemonic schemes of the United States. The fascist fools believed Brzezinski, a petty vindictive born Russophobe given far too much credibility in American fascist politics. The hapless Ukies will be flushed down the commode like used TP by Washington once they have served its purposes. Everybody knows this but them.
Say Russia, at appropriate moment, does an 080808 on Ukies. What is the cost to Russia, other than the financial cost of taking on the reintegration of Donbass?
Don’t suppose there’s any conceivable scenario for the future of Ukraine that would include a re-enactment of the “night of the long knives” for the Nazis. All things not withstanding, they’re always going to be a pain in the ass. I can’t see any scenario whereby Ukraine can move in any positive direction as long as they are allowed to exist.
I have been flowing this front pretty closely, and especially reading everything Saker has written about it.
There is one thing I’m not sure I agree with Andrei about: the assumption that Russia doesn’t want to integrate Ukraine in its entirety into the RF or new Union State. Saker says it would be “economic suicide” to do so, so the Russians must not want to do this..
Now, I’m no expert or anything close to it. But didn’t the USSR pay a high price for that land in blood and treasure 75 years ago? Was the price of that land higher then or now?
I tend to believe that Russia does want to take the whole of Ukrainian territory, if for nothing else but to keep it out of NATO hands. Ukraine, Belarus and Russia are brotherly peoples, the lands they love on are a defensible unit and historical living space for Russian civilization in the broadest sense.
The economic situation Ukraine is in now isn’t any worse than what it was in ww2, and this situation can be changed in maybe 10-30 years. But the value of that land to Russia will last beyond 10-40 years… even though it would be a serious economic shock for sure, Russia has endured worse before and will always seek to defend herself and preserve her culture. For these reasons, I think Russia does have designs not on part of Ukrainian territory, but all of it.
I believe that if Russia is pushed to make a move, they will resolutely invade and occupy all of Ukraine, and pursue political transition into a new normal, perhaps integration into Union state.
I also believe that if Russia has to fight nato over Ukraine, that it won’t be the B3+P who Russia tangles with, it will be Turkey. Turkey is surrounded by Russian allies and military hardware, it is removed geographically and politically from the rest of nato, and is cruising for a bruising by picking on Russia in both Syria and Ukraine.
If Russia waited for a good reason (a ukie attack on Donbas for example) and invaded Ukraine in a big bold way, and at the same time encircled Turkey and was ready to hit Turkey hard, nato would either back down under American directive or fall apart when USA asked Europe to fight Russia over Ukraine/Turkey (who most European nationalists don’t even like).
This would gain Russia its historical lands, reunite the Russian people with their brotherly nations, destroy nato, and give Russia the upper hand in the Middle East region all at once.
What if America doesn’t like it? I doubt they will back because they feel the fear of those hypersonics and of a multi-front war (with Iran/China/Russia) that they know they can’t win).
We haven’t touched on why America is so timid right now. There is a causal reason, no doubt. What is it?
I’m just playing devils advocate on these issues, hopefully Saker or someone who understands this better than me can weigh in on why they think Russia doesn’t want all of Ukraine but only part of it?
Your measured reasoning on the many factors impinging upon the whole Russia-Ukraine imbroglio makes me realise how much this world should be missing Stephen F. Cohen’s sage council. Instead he was isolated and demonised by America’s warmongering class until he finally passed away.
Yes, I can see taking Constantinople and the passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean as being of primary importance here, also clearing NATO out of the Black Sea.
For Russia, absorbing the Ukraine today, would be a poisoned fruit. There are too many real Ukrainian Nazis who would work to destroy Russia under any circumstances.
If Russia wants to re-absorb the Ukraine, then it would have to wait until the US puppets in Kiev are discredited at around the 200% or even 300% level. In other words, Ukrainians would be suffering so much that they would publicly beg for Russia to help them. If that were to happen, I suppose the Russians would be cautious and only offer a limited union, where the economic trade and assistance is both controlled and limited, and where Ukrainians could not just wander into the Russian Federation without undergoing a serious background verification. This is not in the immediate future, obviously.
I think some serious economists could, or already have charted the decline of the Ukraine economy, beyond its current bankruptcy, and down into complete misery. Such data could give us an idea of when the Ukrainians themselves will say, “Enough !” Has anyone seen charts on this ? Certainly, the expiration of the pipeline contracts and the state of the pipelines are part of the picture. It’s also partly a sociological question, of what people will do when everything is exhausted, and they, too, are exhausted. I think history offers examples, but I have a hard time finding any clear parallels.
“the goal is not to defeat Russia militarily, the goal is to defeat Russia politically”
Now, here is a question: how you define a “political defeat” in this context? The question is not a rethorical one – given the black PR propaganda coming from the west, Russia would be damned if she does intervene openly, damned if she doesn’t. Furthermore, russians doesn’t care about the opinion of the western populace much, and not at all about the opinion of their politicos.
So, if Russia intervenes openly, what’s the worst that could happen: the EU will go to hot war (we all know that, barring nuclear escalation NATO can’t win)? They’ll impose sanctions? They’ll stop the natgas inflow through NS2 and freeze to death during the winter?
Ukraine is going to wage low scale asymmetrical warfare against Donbass, using drones, without invading the Donbass. Their goal is to provoke a Russian invasion (which will never happen) or keep the tensions elevated so their masters in Brussels and Washington will have an excuse to implement systemic reforms with dictatorial features in Zone A (The Great Reset).
“…it appears that, once again, the united West needs to get a brutal smackdown (political and military) from Russia…”
Once again, indeed.
Corporate West will not stop at anything to get into Russia’s wealth of resources, their strategic and ultimate goal. 3B+PU are only lapdogs they have trained to keep on barking at Russia on command, ad infinitum, when needed. They are the building blocks of a failed strategy, their permanent wailing used as a pretext to keep the pressure up on Russia, ad aeternum. Russia’s counteraction, as the article discerns, has be to be surgical. Translation: hit the Corporate West where it hurts the most, their pockets. Ukro-nazis have gather novel support and new toys from the Corporate West + delusional “emperor” neo-fascist Erdogan, not to win the war, as the article points out, but to keep provoking Russia into a misstep, and while they are at it, probing the military capacity of LDR/DPR, and their own newly acquired capabilities under the training of their Western masters. Russia should aim to search and destroy their new weaponry on land and/or air, and decimate their frontline, Western-trained “shock” troops. This is a low-intensity conflict, a war of attrition, and the Ukronazis are ready to keep their failed attempts at perpetuity, as often as the Western masters need it to poke at Russia from different angles. Or to distract it from, let us say Syria. Or the Pacific. Or the Arctic. You name it. The Ukro-nazis make millions from any new failure, and the so-called “Army of Ukraine” has vast amounts of cannon fodder from a vast sea of disenfranchised people. The idea is to make the Western masters pay a higher price for every new provocation, at the same time that Russia uses every new crisis as a testing opportunity for new military hardware/software, weakens Ukraine economically, exacerbates the pressure on puppet-clown Zelensky, and teaches the Western masters a lesson on good manners.
Rusija je oduvijek imala visoku Duhovnu Kulturu koja je u suštini veliko strpljenje za sve mogučnost dobrobiti za čovječanstvo. I samo u krajnjem se je Rusija pokretala, i tada je to snaga najveća na svijetu, ljudi Rusije su u svojoj duhovnoj kulturi najjači ljudi na planeti Zemlji, jer ih pokreće Istina. Rusija najmanje treba da vodi računa o onima koji nemaju ni moralne ni etičke vrijednosti, i nije je briga šta će Licemjerstvo reči, jer Rusija je zaista Proviđenje, koje licemjerima ništa ne znači jer su Oholi a Oholost je najveći grijeh u svijetu. Rusko Proviđenje je uvijek štitilo čovjeka i bila njegov spasitelj. Čudno je da Oholost je toliko slijepa da to ne vidi, i još čudnije što je to Istorijska činjenica koja je pisala događanja u vremenu svijeta, tako da se to lako može sagledati. Nema dvojbe, Rusija će se pokrenuti da zaštiti svoj narod od onih koje pokreće fašizam, i za 48 sati Ukrajina neće više postojati u smislu da može pokretatu fašizam koji će biti uništen. Tako je neminovno da smrt znači život.
Machine Translation:
Russia has always had a high spiritual culture, which in fact is a great patience for all the possibilities of well-being for humanity. And only in extreme cases, Russia moved, and then this force is the largest in the world, the people of Russia in their spiritual culture are the strongest people on planet Earth, because they move with the truth. Russia least of all needs to take care of those who have neither moral nor ethical values, and it doesn’t matter what hypocrisy will be said, because Russia is truly provident that hypocrites mean nothing, because they are proud and arrogance is the biggest sin in the world. Russian Providence has always protected man and was his savior. It is strange that pride is so blind that it does not see this, and even more strange that it is a historical fact that wrote events in times of peace, so that it can be easily seen. Make no mistake, Russia will start protecting its people from those who control fascism, and in 48 hours Ukraine will no longer exist in the sense that it can provoke fascism, which will be destroyed. It is so inevitable that death means life.