[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The situation in Belarus is evolving very rapidly, and not for the better, to say the least. A lot has been going on, but here is a summary of what are the most crucial developments in my opinion:
- Last Sunday was a major success for the Belarusian opposition: huge crowds took to the streets of several Belarusian cities and, in most cases, the demonstrations were peaceful.
- Belarus now has its own “Juan Guaido” in the person of Svetlana Tikhanovskaia – whose only “qualification” to lead the opposition is that is that her husband is in jail. Tikhanovskaia has already declared herself the “national leader” of Belarus.
- The Belarusian opposition formed a coordinating committee which is staffed by well-known and long-time rabid russophobes.
- The program of the opposition (they call it “Reanimation package of reforms for Belarus”) is simple: new “fair” elections followed by the following goals: Belarus must withdrawn from all the collective agreements she has with Russia (including the union state, the SCO, etc.). Instead, the national goal ought to be, what else, to join NATO and the EU. All the Russian military forces in Belarus must be expelled. The Belarusian language must be reimposed, Ukie-style, on the Belarusian society (including, apparently, the military – good luck with that!). Russian organizations will be banned in Belarus, and Russian TV channels forbidden. The border with Russia must be closed. Next, a new, independent “Belarusian Orthodox Church” must be created. Finally, the Belarusian economy will “reformed” – meaning that whatever can be sold will be sold, then the country will be deindustrialized (like the Ukraine or the Baltic states).
- At this point, it is pretty clear that the Western-controlled “opposition” has successfully taken over the control of what initially was a legitimate local popular opposition. This mechanism (the hijacking of a truly popular and legitimate opposition by western controlled agents of influence) is exactly what happened in the Ukraine, in Syria and in many other places (I would eve argue that this is what is happening to the USA right now). Some Belarusian ambassadors (Slovakia, Switzerland, Sweden) have now sided with the opposition just like what happened with Venezuela, Syria and other countries.
To be honest, there are more similarities between the recent events in Venezuela and what is now taking place in Belarus, it’s not just Tikhanovskaia as the Belarusian Guaido. For example, Lukashenko made at least, if not more, crucial mistakes than Maduro and now there is hell to pay for it.
Now let’s look at Lukashenko’s actions:
- Now Lukashenko is fuming against the West again, to the degree that he actually moved the most capable Belarusian military unit (the 103rd Special Mobile Guards Airborne Brigade from Vitebsk) to the western border, and the rest of the military forces have been put on high alert. Lukashenko explained that by saying that there is a real risk of western military intervention (which is utter nonsense, NATO does not have what it takes to attack Russia, which is present in Belarus, and survive).
- Lukashenko and at least two of his ministers did go out to talk to the protesters, which is a courageous act which should not be overlooked (as in: Lukashenko, for all his very real faults, is no Ianukovich, and neither are many of his ministers). The meetings did not go well, especially for the two ministers who both clearly lack the undeniable personal charisma of Lukashenko.
- Lukashenko has also publicly admitted that he has to engage Belarusian special forces against some demonstrations. He gave no further details, but that admission is interesting as it shows two things: a) since special forces had to be used, it means that other police forces were either unable or unwilling to control the situation and b) elite Belarusian forces are still backing Lukashenko
- Lukashenko has also called Putin several times and he is now declaring that the current threat is not only a threat to Belarus, but also a threat to Russia. Clearly, Lukashenko is begging for Russian help.
- Lukashenko has publicly declared “unless you remove me there will be no other elections” adding that the opposition would have to kill him before it will get to destroy Belarus (again – the dude is no Ianukovich).
Now let’s also note what Lukashenko has NOT done:
- He has not fired his ministers of foreign affairs and the head of the Belarusian KGB (according to a pro opposition Telegram channel the Minister of Foreign Affairs did resign, but Lukashenko has rejected his resignation; this is one of the many rumors about Belarus inundating Telegram right now)
- He has NOT declared that his so-called “multi-vector policy” (i.e. courting the West) was a mistake or that it has now been changed or abandoned. Clearly, and in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Lukashenko still hopes that he can somehow sit between the two chairs of submission to the Empire or reunification with Russia.
- He has not apologized to Putin and/or Russia for all the false accusations he was hurling at them just a few days ago.
- Paradoxically, following the numerous cases of wanton violence which the Belarusian cops used initially, now the streets are almost entirely free from any police forces. On one hand this is good, the violence used initially did A LOT of damage to the government and it got people very angry. Furthermore, the amount of violence by the opposition did dramatically decrease too, which is also good. But the problem is that there are now very clearly special organized groups, not necessarily formed by locals, who are now trying to seize power illegally and by violence. It is vital that the Belarusian KGB now locate and arrest these people. My fear is that the Belarusian KGB has been infiltrated by pro-western elements who will be hard to neutralize.
Now let’s look at what the “collective West” has done:
- The West has clearly taken a consolidated, common, position towards this crisis. The West does not recognize the outcome of the elections and the West has now thrown its full weight behind the so-called “opposition”.
- Western leaders have called Putin, apparently to demand that Russia not intervene in Belarus. Putin apparently told them that what is taking place is Belarus is none of their business, thank you.
- It is now clear that the West will accept nothing short of what we could call a “Ukronazi outcome” and that the Empire will use all its resources short of military action to try to seize control of Belarus.
Next, let’s look at what Belarus’ neighbors are doing:
- Very predictably, the Poles are clearly thinking that they will restore something which is know by the evocative (to some..) concept of “Rzeczpospolita” in Polish and which roughly translates as “Polish Commonwealth” (see here for a quick primer). In this context, it is very important to understand that modern Poland is an ideological heir to the infamous Józef Piłsudski (here for details). This means that Poland’s ultimate goal is to break up Russia, restore the Polish Commonwealth, and become a willing prostitute to the western power, especially the USA (it is just as easy for the current Polish pseudo-patriots to prostitute their nation to the USA as it was for Piłsudski to prostitute himself before Hitler). If some of you bump into the concepts of “Prometheism” or “Intermarium” then click on these words for more details. It is hardly surprising that the nation Winston Churchill called the “the hyena of Europe” would pounce on Belarus: the Poles always, always, attack when either think that a) there is some big guy behind them and b) that their victim is weak. I fully expect the Pope to publicly “pray for peace in Belarus” and express his “distress” at the violence. Truly – this has been the same gang for almost 1000 years (see here and here) and they are still at it. There is really nothing new under the sun…
- The clueless Balts also want to join the Rzeczpospolita for a very simple reason: they are terrified that the West will eventually dump them and they know that by themselves they will never achieve anything. So as much as the Poles like to hide behind the USA, the Balts like to hide behind Poland. Finally, these countries probably realize that even Belarus alone could prevail militarily over them, nevermind Russia, so the figure that united and protected by Uncle Shmuel they will seize Russia like they seized the Ukraine and finally (!) become the (collective?) “Prometheus” they think they are, but which history never allowed them to become.
- As for the EU gerontocrats, they are just doing what they know how to do: try to impersonate some kind of (moral?) “authority” which gets to decide which elections are fair, which are not, which regimes get to beat up demonstrators (Macron anybody?) and which ones must immediately yield to the demands of a carefully controlled “opposition”. It is especially touching to see Merkel who clearly does not realize the utter contempt the Russians feel for her and for what she stands for.
Lastly, let’s look at what Putin and other Russians are saying:
- Putin and Xi have both recognized the outcome of the elections. Frankly, I don’t know of any halfway serious source which would dispute the fact that Lukashenko beat Tikhanovskaia by a wide margin. Yes, I also seriously doubt the frankly silly 80% vs 10% figures, but I doubt those who say that Lukashenko lost even more. Neither Putin nor Xi will “unrecongnize” these elections. Which means that neither Putin nor Xi will ever accept the western narrative about what happened or what is happening now.
- Putin’s reaction to Lukashenko’s phone calls appears to be a special kind of “restrained goodwill” or “polite benevolence”. Clearly, nobody in Russia has forgotten what just happened and I notice a very clear trend on Russian talkshows, news reports and articles: while most Russians sincerely see Belarusians as fellow Russian brothers, the level of frustration and even disgust with Lukashenko is hard not to notice, and it is only growing. Even very pro-Kremlin commentators are losing their cool with what Lukashenko is doing (they are no less angry at what Lukashenko is not doing), I think of Igor Korotchenko, the head of the Public Council under the Ministry of defense of the Russian Federation, a typical Kremlin-insider, who has now declared that the Belarusian Foreign Minister is a “foreign agent of influence” (which I don’t doubt) and that Russia ought to demand that he be fired. I can only agree with him.
- Crucially, in the official summary transcript of the telephone conversation between Lukashenko and Putin the latter repeated that the integration between Russia and Belarus must continue. Here is how the Kremlin put it: “The Russian side reaffirmed its readiness to render the necessary assistance to resolve the challenges facing Belarus based on the principles of the Treaty on the Creation of a Union State, as well as through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, if necessary“. In other words, Putin is laying down the legal framework under which Russia might intervene in some manner, especially if such an intervention is officially requested by Minsk.
Now let’s summarize what is really taking place, I will also do that in the form of a bullet-point list:
- There is no doubt that many Belarusians are fed up with Lukashenko
- There is no doubt that many Belarusians still support Lukashenko (if only as a guarantor against a Ukraine-like collapse).
- There is no doubt that the legitimate Belarusian opposition was quickly and effortlessly co-opted by western and, let’s call them “Promethean”, special services.
- Lukashenko was so sure of himself, that he never bothered to really campaign, to talk and plead with his own people. He entered this election cocky sure of himself, only to find out that what is immediate entourage of yes-man (they stand when they report to him) either was lying or was clueless.
- Next, it is also clear that Lukashenko was sure that between his KGB and the Belarusian riot police, he could easily clear the streets. And while this seemed to work for 24 hours, the last couple of days are proof that the regime has lost control of the streets and/or is clueless as to what to do next. Furthermore, while you can use riot police to disperse demonstrators, you cannot use this riot police to force anybody to work: there are many consistent reports of strikes in major Belarusian plants and corporations. How will Lukashenko force these people to work? He cannot. In fact, he specifically said so when he declared that strikes will destroy Belarus. There are now even reports that the company Belaruskalii, one of the most profitable companies in Belarus (it produces potassium fertilizer) has now stopped working (this just in: the workers of Belaruskallii have agreed to resume work).
- In extremis, Lukashenko began calling Putin and he even said “we, Russians” during a public meeting. Right now I know of no respectable analyst in Russia who would believe that Putin owes Lukashenko anything.
- The blame for what just happened cannot be placed solely on Lukashenko’s infinite arrogance, the infiltration of the Belarusian KGB or on Ukronazi provocations: it is possible that the SVR and GRU dropped the ball in this instance, in spite of the fact that what happened was easy to predict (and many did predict this). Had it not been for the superb work of the FSB, it is quite possible that by now some Russian citizens would be sitting in Ukronazi jails. The Russian Foreign Ministry also appears to have been caught off guard. I don’t necessarily feel that “heads should roll” at the SVR/GRU, but at the very least there ought to be a full internal investigation on why this crisis apparently caught the Kremlin off-guard and some “organizational conclusions” ought to be drawn. By the way, there is also the possibility that the SVR/GRU and Ministry of Foreign Affairs *did* provide timely and substantive (actionable) warnings. In this case, the problem is with the heads of these services, the Russian government and the President. It is sometimes said that the process of intelligence involves three phases referred to as the “three As”: acquisition (data collection), analysis (data management and interpretation) and acceptance (convincing the political decision makers). I do, obviously, not know at what level this failure happened, but I see it as a clear sign of a major problem.
Now lets look at the core of the “Russian problem in Belarus”: it is simple, really: Belarusians are Russians, even more so than the Ukrainians. Not only that, but judging from the footage from Belarus (on all changes and from all sources), while the (supposed) “leaders” of the so-called “opposition” are all rabid russophobes, the vast majority of those who protested against Lukashenko are not.
The problem here is that it is impossible to get truly reliable numbers. Official Belarusian polls are a joke, but “opposition” polls, or western run polls, are probably even MORE unreliable. Then there is the fact that Minsk is somewhat of a special case amongst Belarusian cities. Furthermore, there is a difference between urban and rural Belarus. And, finally, the opposition itself is not monolithic at all, and when somebody is asked whether he supports Lukashenko or not, there are many possible reasons why somebody might reply “no” (heck, many Russians in Russia do not support Lukashenko either). So we have to accept that until some kind of normalcy return to Belarus and truly free elections are held, nobody will know for sure what percentage of Belarusians think about this crisis or Lukashenko.
Then there is the fact that, just as in Syria or the Ukraine, the initial protest were legitimate, both in terms of having many valid reasons to protest and in terms of being truly local, not controlled from abroad. But then, just as in Syria and in the Ukraine, these protests were infiltrated and co-opted by foreign agents. Ideally, Russia would want to support the original/real demonstrators as much as possible within reason and counter-act the infiltrated subversives. But how can the Russian separate them unless they themselves make it happen?
One idea circulated here and there is that Russia should intervene very openly, in the context of the Union State between Russia and Belarus and, even more so, under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Putin did mention this organization already, so this is definitely an option for Russia. But would that be a good option?
To be honest, I am not even sure that there are ANY good options left for Russia. I mentioned several times that I personally came to conclusion that the only possibly way for the Belarusian people to remain free is to join Russia. I still think that. However, I am not at all sure that this is even really possible right now, if only because the only interlocutor of Moscow in Belarus appears to be losing control of his own government and because there is no easy way to make progress on this issue while Belarus is at the very real risk of complete collapse.
The root cause of it all?
Corruption. As always.
It is often said that the Ukrainian leaders since 1991 were terrible, and that is true: every one of them seemed to be acting in some kind of toxic freak show. And yes, in Belarus, people feared the cops and the KGB a lot more than they did in the Ukraine. But that does not necessarily mean that Belarus was less corrupt. All this means, is that in Belarus the government did a great job running a semi-feudal system of protection which only guaranteed that only officials and their “business partners” got to make good money.
And this is not a Belarus or Ukrainian problem only. The exact same thing took place in Russia in the 90s. It is not even a personality problem, it is a class problem, in the Marxist sense of the word.
We need to remember that the CPSU and its Nomenklatura was a fantastically corrupt organization, not necessarily at the member level, but as a whole. I would summarize the “integrity” of these people as so:
- First they betrayed Stalin and the ideals of Marxism-Leninism (Khrushchev years)
- Then they betrayed their own USSR and CPSU (Brezhnev & Gorbachev years)
- Then they disguised themselves as patriots (or even nationalists, like that hardcore communist ideologue Kravchuk did!).
- Next, they deeply penetrated the West to seek protection, hide their real revenues and obtain the right to rule.
- Next, they sucked their countries dry of all their wealth while their personal worth skyrocketed.
- Finally, they all volunteered to prostitute themselves and their people before the West.
These guys have no more morals than am amoeba and they are as ruthless as any psychopath. They used to prostitute themselves before their Party bosses, and now they do the same to their AngloZionist ones.
So here is the question: how could Russia remove this ruling class without a) major bloodshed and b) making it look like what Russia is really doing is trying to save Lukashenko?
What Russia really needs now is for the West to do something as terminally stupid as when the US tried to overthrow Erdogan. But that would only be sufficient to bring Lukashenko to heel and get rid of some of the most dangerous elements in his entourage. The bigger problem is how could Russia help the Belarusian people?
Just tossing more money at the Belarusian regime makes no sense and does not work. Been there, done that.
Using military force is possible (I don’t expect anybody in the Belarusian military, at least key commanders and units, to object to this). But that is very tricky and outright politically dangerous. It might also not be correctly understood by Belarusians and by many Russians too.
The first conclusion I personally am coming to is that Russia must not do anything which could be credibly construed as “saving Lukashenko”. Lukashenko needs no “saving”. Belarus does.
Second, while in military terms securing Belarus would not be a problem for the Russian military, in political terms it would be a major crisis as the West would, no doubt, pounce on that to not only impose more sanctions (that is not really a problem) but also to create a New Cold War in which mentally sane and patriotic Europeans would be “shouted down” by hysterical mantras about “the Russians are coming! the Russians are coming!”.
I am also concerned about the recent military moves by Belarus. To forward deploy high readiness forces near the Polish border is a very bad idea: considering the historical record the Russians should *never* assume that any Polish leader won’t do something fantastically stupid which will end up as fantastically tragic. I don’t believe for one second that NATO has plans to invade Belarus. If anything, Lukashenko and Russia ought to leave what is called a “tripwire force” in the West while preparing their strategic defenses in depth. There is NO need to go and provoke the Poles, the Balts or anybody else in NATO.
If given a choice, Putin would probably want for both Lukashenko and the so-called ‘opposition’ to go (this reminds me of the Argentinian “que se vayan todos” or the Lebanese كلهم يعني كلهم both of which can be roughly translated as “they all have to go”and “all means all” – including both Tikhanovskaia AND Lukashenko.
At the time of writing this (Aug. 19th) it appears that Lukashenko will now have to chose between the “civilized West” and “Putin’s bloody Mordor”. Truly, he really has no option other than to choose Moscow, but that does not at all mean that Moscow thinks that there is anything salvageable from Lukashenko’s regime. His latest “zag!” back to being a “Russian brother” is way too little and way too late. And if his foreign minister and his head of KGB are still in the next government, all this talk will also become irrelevant and meaningless.
Simply put: if Lukashenko wants to remain in power he has only one option – beg for Putin’s mercy, not publicly, of course, be most emphatically and as sincerely as he can pretend to be. Then he needs to purge his government from every single name Putin (or the Russian special services) will hand to him. Yes, that means that he has to truly and really relinquish control. As for Putin, he needs to address both the Russian and the Belarusian people to explain whatever decision he comes to. This is, yet again, a situation where Putin’s biggest weapon might be his very high popular support (not only in Russia, but also, by all accounts, in Belarus).
Right now it appears that the West seriously fears a Russian intervention: they probably (correctly) realize how easy it would be for Russia and how there is absolutely nothing anybody, including NATO or, even less so, the EU could do about it. Trump personally has much bigger fish to fry and I doubt if he cares much. But his narcissistic Secretary of State probably feels like he can turn Belarus into another US-run Banderastan.
So what can happen next?
I think that it is crucial that Russia reach out to the non-US-controlled opposition in Belarus, publicly, and try to establish some kind of dialog. Russia also has to publicly warn the people of Belarus that if they allow the current US-controlled “opposition leaders” to come to power, Belarus will collapse just like the Ukraine did.
This might be the strongest argument Russia could repeat over and over again: as bad as Lukashenko was, if he is overthrown in some kind of Maidan-like coup, then Belarus will become the next Banderastan. This will be a major headache for Russia, but Russia can easily survive this. Belarus cannot.
But simply keeping Lukashenko in power is no solution either: whether he did or did not win the latest elections is not even the real issue anymore – the real issue is that he did lose his credibility with pretty much everybody involved. For this reason alone – Lukashenko has to go. Next, some kind of government of national unity which would include the main political forces in Belarus except the ones controlled by the West should probably be formed. Finally, whoever is in power in Minsk needs to set a course on a full reintegration of Belarus into Russia. That remains the only viable long-term solution for the people of Belarus.
The Saker
The west is in full attack mode.
First the coup d etat in Belarus.
Second the escalation with Iran. Trump has officially declared that he wants to reestablish all UN sanctions on Iran and he is threatening both Russia and China if they go against what the US wants to do.
Tensions keeps rising and are so high that s it s becoming really threatening.
Trump is the ultimate failure, really disgusting.
Hell, Biden keeps condemning and threatening Russia and Putin. Obama eagerly re-ignited the cold war back in 2013 when Ukraine, egged on by American neocons, opened up that opportunity and he has never stopped trashing Russia since. Or maybe it was Dubya who encouraged the hysterical Russophobia of Saakasvili in Georgia circa 2008. Of course, it could have been Slick Willie who decided to dismantle Yugoslavia and recruit all of Eastern Europe into NATO, which never relinquished its prime directive of opposing Russia in any and every way possible. So much for all the high hopes raised by Reagan and Gorbachev. Obviously, the cold war never ended, not for Washington, regardless of what the media and history book writers have been telling us for over a generation. The current American power structure surely looks with complete disdain upon those two diplomats and gentlemen, regardless of the rhetoric found in the high-minded scholarly books and journal articles. Looks like war is on the horizon no matter which pack of idiots wins the American presidency. It’s always been very hard work trying to keep the barbarians at bay anywhere you look in this great wide world, and at pretty much any time in its history.
Dubya is not as creative as you make him out to be. But Saakashvili is a scoundrel and an idiot who’s crime my late Senator McCain tried to glorify. But by that time, it was McCain’s post Vietnam anti-Soviet derangement syndrome which had taken over his mind. He attempted to rally his home state of Arizona, and the whole USA, around that criminal. I had never experience such shame until then.
Saakashvili acted unilaterally -foolishly assuming he would gain the favor of the U.S.
Since the 90s the US and Germany are trying to install a colonial dictatorship in Belarus that is murdering and looting its people like in Ukraine. Belarussians should not allow this to happen and remember the last time they were forced under colonial rule by Germany and its fascist collaborators with the same flag as todays:
“Useless Mouths”
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/5273/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_146-2008-0042,_Wei%C3%9Frussland,_Minsk,_Geb%C3%A4ude.jpg
Even the BND, created by nazis and the CIA, is involved:
“14 Million Euro for a Coup”
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/1961/
The most influencial endowment in Germany demands:
“EFFICIENCY FIRST
TOWARDS A COHERENT EU STRATEGY FOR BELARUS”
https://web.archive.org/web/20140806152903/http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/cps/rde/xbcr/SID-67602BA8-36C10183/bst_engl/Belarus_Recommendations_FINAL%281%29.pdf
“London Times
MONDAY SEPTEMBER 03 2001
US adopts ‘Contras policy’ in communist Belarus
…
Earlier in his career, Mr Kozak served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Inter-American Affairs under Presidents Reagan and Bush, working in Panama, Nicaragua and El Salvador, and was
Ambassador to Cuba. While Mr Kozak was serving in Nicaragua, Mr Reagan famously compared the Contras to the French Resistance fighters.
President Lukashenko is popular and most Belarussians fear that a new, pro-Western leader would bring the poverty experienced by many Russians and Ukrainians after the transition to a market economy.
A spokesman for the US Embassy in Minsk told The Times that the embassy helped to fund 300 non-governmental organisations (NGOs), including non-state media, but did not fund political parties, since that is banned by law. He admitted that some of the NGOs were linked to those who were “seeking political change”.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20020803121836/http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/FightSmart31-10-2001.htm
“A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Minsk told The Times that the embassy helped to fund 300 non-governmental organizations and admitted that «some» of them were linked to those who were “seeking political change”. “Helped” is certainly an understatement here. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty was more precise: “Many groups in Belarus rely on foreign money for their activities”. Christian Science Monitor revealed that Washington spent $24 million in 2000 to support NGOs and opposition groups in Belarus, and was going to spend even more next year. According to Russian press, support to Belarussian opposition through the Eurasia Foundation, for instance, grew from $340,000 in 1996 to $1.5 million in 1998, and to about $4 million in 2001. That’s in a country where National Bank reserves do not exceed $200 million!
To what extent such groups in Belarus, created and funded by the U.S., can be considered “independent” (i.e. “not governed by a foreign power; self-governing; free from the influence, guidance, or control of another or others; self-reliant”) is certainly a big question. To look at this from a more concrete perspective, 300 Washington-funded NGOs is one organization for every 34,000 citizens of a 10-million person republic. What would be the reaction of American people and the Bush Administration if some foreign country (for instance, Saudi Arabia, North Korea or Russia) would set up and provide multibillion funding to some 8,250 “civil society” groups (one for every 34,000 Americans) aimed at “seeking political change” (read: “overthrowing the President”, “changing the political regime”) in the U.S.?”
http://web.archive.org/web/20040923163428/http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/index.html?cat=3&type=3&art=779
BHHRG report on the failed coup in 2006:
http://web.archive.org/web/20061003203808/http://www.bhhrg.org/CountryReport.asp?CountryID=4&ReportID=264
I think Trump is on election mode now and after he is again President he will change some of the stupid things he is doing now
The US can’t play the bully anymore like before
At this moment Putin and Xi just wait what happens in November and there will be some changes coming
in the US that’s for sure
For the good or the bad…. We will see
Mike, Trump won’t be reelected. What’s about to happen in the United States will make Ukraine and Syria look like child’s play.
Luka is on a Moscow lifeline. He knows he will be killed if he screws around and doesn’t do what Putin wants.
He also hopes for a graceful exit and peaceful retirement somewhere in Russia.
I think the only immediate issue is can the Russian and Belarus Intel services prevent violence?
Strikes only damage the strikers and their companies. The economy will be ruined and the oligarchs will demand the end to strikes.
It all favors Luka staying for a while and a new election. Might be six months.
Putin has made it clear that any attempts by the West or any of its agencies, or vassals will be met with Russian military force.
Belarus will not be lost.
Luka will go. Some pro-Russian leader will appear.
I don’t think the Russians were unprepared. They had to allow Luka to walk the limb and tie the West’s noose around his neck and realize the State Dept and NGOs distributed saws not cookies to the people.
Luka sees the end is near. He simply wants a positive ending. All dictators are delusional. Putin will even give him a special Friend of Russia medal. But Luka has to follow directions meticulously.
There are steps he is talking about. Obviously, directives from the Kremlin.
The potato farmer-President placed a wager on the West. He didn’t realize it was his life at stake.
Ending the strikes is the key to ending this drama in Minsk.
We’ll see if the Kremlin has a remedy for that tool of destabilization.
There is this today…
https://eng.belta.by/society/view/konyuk-criminal-case-opened-against-coordination-council-in-belarus-132734-2020/
MINSK, 20 August (BelTA) – A criminal case has been opened against the Coordination Council, Belarus Prosecutor General Aleksandr Konyuk told reporters, BelTA has learned.
“On 18 August, a group of Belarusian citizens announced the establishment of a coordination council, the purpose of which is to organize the transfer of power. They are planning to set up a political body which should take over the transfer of power from the current head of state. Setting up such bodies is not envisaged in law, and this activity is unconstitutional,” Aleksandr Konyuk said.
I think this is absolutely correct, Russia has no reason to save Lukashenko & whilst the situation is exceptionally dangerous, it also presents a fantastic opportunity to do what Russia was unable to do during the Maidan in Ukraine, & that is to re-integrate Belarussia back into Russia, where it should be, where it rightfully belongs. I also do not think it was an intel failure on Russia part to not anticipate or know about the Wagner merc plot, Russian intel has better things to do than track all the movements of all its mercs all the time. That fact that Russian intel was able to very quickly determine what happened afterward, actually demonstrates how good the information stream is – it clearly works. I would not assume that the Kremlin purposely allowed this crisis to develop, & the Ukronazi SBU probably covered its tracks well enough, with CIA/MI6 support, up until the point the mercs were arrested & apprehended. I suspect now that the Kremlin will work towards de-escalation in Belarussia & then move towards replacing Lukashenko quietly. The west are clearly intent on radical violence, if it escalates, Russia may have to intervene.
“… Right now it appears that the West seriously fears a Russian intervention: they probably (correctly) realize how easy it would be for Russia and how there is absolutely nothing anybody, including NATO or, even less so, the EU could do about it. …”
If this is really so, then it is a no-brainer what to do. Russia must intervene militarily forthwith.
Have absolutely no doubt that the Russian military favour this option, and that they have detailed operational plans ready for its execution.
The problem, of course, remains Putin’s habitual vacillation, his predilection for leaving conflicts unresolved and frozen when he is already ahead. That sorry trail from Novorussia to Armenia, from Libya to Syria…
On the other side of the balance sheet stands his resolute action on Crimea. By golly, he must realise that Belorussia is at least as vital for Russia’s very existence … or does he?…
Or is it already the time for Mother Russia to select someone else to hold the helm?
The problem, of course, remains Putin’s habitual vacillation, his predilection for leaving conflicts unresolved and frozen when he is already ahead. That sorry trail from Novorussia to Armenia, from Libya to Syria…
I very much disagree. In Novorussian Putin did the right thing (NOT to use force) while in Crimea and Syria he also did the right thing (to USE force).
What you, and so many others, are missing is that a military operation is ALWAYS ALSO a political one, and while Russia could seize Belarus pretty much almost overnight if needed, and most of the Belarusian military commanders will only welcome the Russians, but the POLITICAL consequences for Russia would be major: the resulting crisis will further subjugate western Europe to the USA – that is the wet dream of the Neocons since at least 2013.
Compare the Russian use of military force to the use of military force by the USA. Do you REALLY want Russia to become very very good at entering a country and clueless as to how to leave it? Do you really think that people in Russia want to spend their hard earned money on paying for the mistakes of Belarus?
I am sorry, but this is simply not what Putin was elected to do.
Exactly, Saker. Putin was elected to be cunning. The last thing Russians want is more funerals for their dead heroes.
Belarus has one bright economic future with Russia and China and Eurasia.
It’s option with the West is to be another Ukraine.
Worse of all, Belarus will be a vassalage military base of the Poles/Baltics/NATO. There will be no sense of Belarus state, just a Belarus colony.
They want Luka out. They don’t want Russia in. They will likely choose to attach and join Russia in a partnership in which they will be junior partner. Later on, they may choose full integration as a republic within the Federation.
Meanwhile, a peaceful transition to a new President is in the making. Luka knows he has to go.
And the Belarus military knows the Russians will have their back.if the Poles try to enter Belarus territory.
@ The Saker
“… POLITICAL consequences for Russia would be major …”
Of course, six years ago one could have equally correctly predicted that taking over Crimea would cause an extreme reaction by the NATO regimes – as it actually has: Russia did suffer immensely under the resulting extremely heavy economic sanctions, didn’t it.
Which does not mean that the move was not necessary – and hence worth it.
To make one whole segment of the Russian nation (for Belorussians are Russians, historically and ethnically, certainly no less than the inhabitants of other regions of Russian Federation) an acceptable gambit (!) in a lame political game with western “partners”, is both morally unacceptable, and on both long and short run detrimental to the present state of Russia. Sorry, but this has nothing to do with the person of some Lukashenko (today he is in power, tomorrow he isn’t – just like Putin) and his “mistakes”.
Just as with Crimea, having Belorussia rejoin Russia certainly does not entail thinking “how to leave”.
Crimea is exactly the same price as now Trump GLOBALISTS are offering Serbia from Kosovo-….4 municipalities. You are right, Putin is doing all not to have war with oligarhy partners in west and they are using this situation. It is one thing to wait so that enemy do not drag you before the world into “aggression”, but when the economy of a country collapses after few years and the people are still being killied…… It is a crime against our own people in Malorussia not to intervene as a SBUN member. Putin is a good actor and manager in my opinion, but not a real statesman. Obviously, he must not do anything proactive besides globalists, but patch holes just enough so that the people in Russia do not rise. The media portrays him as a savior, but the notion of passivity and discouragement has infiltrated the Russian people. Especially between 20 million across the border. In my opininon Russia in addition to its capacity, does not use half, I believe. Especially the military … dear friend, Russia is a country with 7,500 nuclear warheads, and they apologize for doing so and depreciate to keep their partners from getting angry.??? And when it comes to corruption, it can go hand in hand with Americans imp….lists and EU na…zis. The last time Saker didn’t let me comment, but here I repeat. Putin is the one who talked about the Orthodox Union with 4 capitals 5 years ago. Then he started talking about the Lisabon Vladivostok Union. Imagine how much is being stolen in the EU today, what will happen if that plan comes true. The Russian leadership has allowed all Eastern Bloc countries to join NATO, justifying that NATO lied to them. Coincidence or a story for small children, while at the same time dampening the anger of the russian people.Today, he sells “sovereign vaccines”, why when he is at war with globalists??? Funny…..
Tem razão! A Integração da Bielorrússia com a Rússia através do Estado da União deve ocorrer imediatamente e para sempre!
translation … mod
You’re right! The integration of Belarus with Russia through the state of the Union must take place immediately and forever!
Measure twice, cut once.
I expect some plans must be made for a smooth political transition before the military is sent in.
Military reps must be able to explain what the political plan is, not just stand their foolishly in the middle of Minsk without a good explanation for why they are there.
Katherine
@ Katherine
“… I expect some plans must be made for a smooth political transition before the military is sent in. …”
Yes. Most certainly so.
Walking six years back to the Crimean reunification operation, that is exactly what we saw. Planned plebiscite & military takeover by “polite men in green” went smoothly hand in hand – in a time frame that left the western vultures able only to yelp till turning blue.
No reason not to repeat the feat.
Anonymous 1:51 am
Sevastopol and Krimu was most assuredly NOT taken by ‘polite men in green’, it was taken by the citizenry lock stock and barrel and then handed to the polite young men in green. Yes, they were very important to assist in making sure the orcs would not of a sudden come surging out of their bases, but that question is today a mute point, the citizenry were well armed and ready, and while such arms were rarely shown, the orcs knew very well that if they tried to get through the unarmed babushki and dedushki at their gates and walls, behind them were armed and ready veterans.
Referendum was not even mentioned publicly until we had the orcs locked down and screwed completely, and the orcs knew it. Byelorus is a completely different kettle of fish and must be cooked using a different recipe.
Auslander
A thought which wondered into my mind was that {a} given that it’s highly likely [hah] that VP had a good idea of how moves against Lukashenko were flowing in Belorussia, and that {b} the probability, after hearing the “result” of the election, that social unrest would start to build a la predictions from a while back, whether he wasn’t perhaps “letting it run”, in the old “give him enough rope to hang himself” mode.
Belorussia and Russia were supposed to reunite about 20 yrs ago, from memory. Always promised, but it never happened, largely I suspect because of Luka. And from what I saw of interaction between the 2 men, to VP’s annoyance.
Perhaps it occured to him that if he let things build like this, it was the only way to get rid of the major obstacle to reunification, and being threatened by a European Ukrainian “helping hand” would be enough to push the majority of Belorussians to demand it too.
Just a thought.
“that is the wet dream of the Neocons since at least 2013.”
Perhaps a more illuminating evaluation horizon would be since at least March 1943, although Mr. Putin has posited September 1938.
“What you, and so many others, are missing is that a military operation is ALWAYS ALSO a political one”
What you and so many others (including the opponents) are missing is that strategies are functions of facility and purpose, and unlike the facilities/purposes/hopes/wishes of the opponents, the facilities/purposes of some are not held to be truths that are self-evident, and that not all rely on belief to bridge doubt to attain expectation/purpose.
Your use of “wet dream” has resonance given the opponents’ tendency towards premature ejaculations and contingent “disappointments” including those of their interlocutors, but perhaps more representative terms would include beliefs, hopes, and wishes with an admixture of the attempt/achievement conflation, a.k.a. as the chaos gambit when outcomes vary from expectations.
As experience and song suggests – the opponents are forever blowing bubbles.
I’d suggest trying to look at the situation more like a person actually in control of the fate of nations and millions of people, who looks not to tomorrow, but decades ahead. In other words, not like a AngloSaxon of modern America, but like a highly experienced – and successful – Russian leader.
What is to be gained by mounting a military invasion right now, while emotions are running high? Where might this leave Russia 10 yrs down the track. Putin hasn’t spent the last 20 yrs carefully and slowly building Russia up, saving money, building agriculture, industrialisation, military, education, cultural pride, just to go throw it all away on an impetuous knee jerk reaction. Taking your time to get all the facts together, talk to many other experts for opinions, weigh your options and carefully plan your moves is NOT “vacillating”.
There have been examples aplenty of VP behaving exactly like this. He always does, as Trump called him, like “A Grand Chess Master”. ‘
And he will do again. No-one who has followed him over the years, listened to his words about Russia and her history, can doubt, that there is no way he is going to allow the EU + NATO + US to gain a foothold in Belorussia. As far as VP is concerned, it’s Russia. Period. No argument.
But he will do it his way, which is as it should be.
Pamela, I like your thinking. And if The Saker can read the Russophobia of the coordinating committee of the opposition (certainly aided and abetting by western agents) then I am sure Putin and Russia’s intelligence agencies know more than we know and are way ahead of us. I am sure Putin will work to prevent another fascist coup regime in Belarus.
Pamela in the Cafe posted this up for us. Lavov on Belarus. He is speaking actually very gently.
I was thinking about what The Saker said “I think that it is crucial that Russia reach out to the non-US-controlled opposition in Belarus, publicly, and try to establish some kind of dialog. Russia also has to publicly warn the people of Belarus that if they allow the current US-controlled “opposition leaders” to come to power, Belarus will collapse just like the Ukraine did.”
There is much of this in Lavrov’s speech and some warnings to the west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7weWUULiYAU
thank you Amarynth!
“Russia also has to publicly warn the people of Belarus….”
And why would Russia be believed by conditioned and/or paid Russophobes?
The strategic center of gravity for this effort by the west is as always, the Papacy. That was clear to me when I saw that one of the demands by protesters was for a “independent ” Byelorussian Orthodox church, which of course will be absorbed by the Vatican, along with the farcical Ukrainian Orthodox church set up by the Crypto Papist ” Patriarch ” Bartholomew. The Papacy will take Byelorussian and Ukrainian souls while Poles and Western businessmen own their bodies. And while that happens, they’ll try to tighten the noose around Great Russia at last. Trump is a smart man though: I’m sure he cares little for Vatican schemes, maybe he will broker a deal for all sides in this?
Papacy!!!
Papacy today is One Big Nothing.
But I understand your Serbian obsession with Vatican
This is USA-UK Anglo-zionist and NWO strategy. And they do not give s…t about Papacy unless they can use it for something but in the case of Belarus Papacy is mostly useless.
All Ortodhox countries are Anglo-zionist puppets today with very anti-russian governments and so-called political elites.
And neither Pope nor Vaatican has to do with that. It is problem of Orthodox world itself.
“+Following World War Two, the CIA, Vatican, and MI6 reorganized the Prometheans and Intermarians into the openly fascist Anti Bolshevik Bloc and World Anti Communist league which welcomed former Nazis as long as they were anti Soviet too. Maidan agitator US Senator John McCain was once affiliated with the World Anti Communist League as an advisor and surely has had no qualms about his new friends in Kiev.
Notably all these Intermarium states are predominately Roman Catholic with the exception of the Ukraine. Yet even in the heart of the Orthodox Church, the Vatican has made major inroads. A long standing campaign of Ukrainization has dispossessed the Moscow Patriarchy in favour of the Rome affiliated Easter Rite Church and Autonomous Ukrainian patriarchy. The presence of numerous priests on the front lines of the Maidan is by design not chance.”
source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/14598
Absolutely, well said. This is a general line that has been followed for centuries and the Vatican is determined to see this through. There is a continuity that is there that recent decades of the Vatican’s charm offensive can’t obscure, at least to me anyway.
One Pope John Paul II comes to mind. What a piece of work that guy was. His hatred towards everything Russian and Serbian was hard not to see. The joint criminal enterprise of the West/NATO in Central and South-Eastern Europe would not be complete without that Polish…person. And yes many in Serbian Orthodox Church too have been poisoned by ecumenism i.e. meekly kissing the Popes feet and other parts.
Deluding and self-deluded, JPII bought into the messianic poetry of 19th century Poland that a Polish Pope would come and liberate Poland from her occupiers and restore Polish national greatness. Her was perfect for his Cold War role, and brought US President Reagan into it with his largely Roman Catholic and Evangelical Protestant administration.
“Kiev patriarch says Orthodox Church and Vatican should work together”
“The patriarch does not believe unification of the two churches is realistic today, but it is “desirable” and greater cooperation is possible.”
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/kiev_patriarch_says_orthodox_church_and_vatican_should_work_together
The schismatic Patriarch of Kiev, you should say.
The role of Papacy is to subvert Orthodoxy as it always was. So, it has a big role to play.
And when more covert means do not have a greater effect, the Vatican will get behind overt means of destroying the Orthodox, like in World War Two.
You are very much mistaken about the Vatican, and about me being Serbian for that matter, I am not. And the problems in the Orthodox World are largely because of centuries of historically well documented Vatican subversion.
“But I understand your Serbian obsession with Vatican.”
I understand the Croatian obsession with being Catholic, it resulted in a Vatican/Nazi orchestraion & Croatian Ustasha excecuted genocide of a million plus Serbs, including many children. Call it an obsession friend, it something we obsessed Serbs will never ever forget. Ever.
It should never be forgotten, and as long as the Latin heresy exists people should be vigilant.
Dear Srbalj,
Thank you for making this clear to the zombified papophile. The Serbs and many others will never forget (I would also say forgive) the history of genocide and destruction. Thanks to the Saker for allowing us to preserve the truth about this lair of evil.
The blogger Moon of Alabama (who is German) was warning of the American/Europeon regime change threat to Belarus back in June of 2020.
Belarus – A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/06/belarus-a-us-sponsored-color-revolution-is-underway.html
If any ordinary blogger armed only with his computer and wits can identify this American regime change operation, it is hard to believe that the Russian or Belarusian governments and their intelligence agencies did not know what was happening, given that they have the much greater resources of a state at their disposal.
LOL! That does not work that way :-)
The problem is not that there is no info, it is that there is TOO MUCH and often contradictory info. Some people like “b” at MoA predicted that something like what took place would happen. Other did not, or made wrong predictions. Now, looking BACK to see which prediction was right is easy. But making them at the time is what is hard. Finally, the fact that the Russian intelligence agencies dropped the ball on this one is just ONE hypothesis, just like my other hypothesis about political leaders not listening to the intel.
Again, for us, in hindsight, this is all very clear. But we don’t carry the responsibility to warn national leaders. All I want to say is these things are pretty complex.
My 2cts
Even I knew that sooner or later a colour revolution would be attempted in BR. It was kinda a no-brainer.
That’s the great paradox of our time. Desinformation throug excess of information. Agreed that this was a great failure of 3 “A’s process by the Russian Intel comunity…
Regime change in Belarus was on the roll at least since the end of USSR.
It is about time for Russia(and Putin)to show force the only thing the West respect(not polite diplomacy à la Lavrov from 1950).It is time to clean up Belarus,Ukrainen,Moldovia,Georgia.It is also about time to retake control of Idlib and the Oil in Der Ezzor.Impose with China in Lebanon a new order with Hezbollah,once and for all.Sanctions who cares?There is almost nothing left to sanction and China is in the same situation versus the US.The main victim of more sanction will be the Germans and Merkel,no nordstream 2,they will pay their gas two times more.Maybe Merkel will finaly stop to be a US agent?
Weakness of Russia and Putin since 2014,did not bring anything positive,zero,nada,niente,rien du tout.
How many innocents lifes of civil and military personnel lost for nothing(Donbass,Syria)?Hundreds of billions lost in revenues(sanctions).Remember..Odessa,Odessa the fatal mistake which will enter in the history books as one of the worse strategic decisions taken by major power right at her doorsteps.And here we go again:Belarus same mistake,same scenario,no surprise.They must be opening the best champagne they have at the Pentagone?Lack of leadership.Vey sad.
:Trump is finally much worse then Obama,who did not even dare to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons,same in Syria.Pompeo is the de faco’ neocon evangélisto zionist POTUS’,not Trump anymore this for one year now.Of course I hate Biden,but I’m afraid he will be a lesser evil than Trump if elected(as he will be replaced after a few months probably).Dems make a lot of noise but do much less damage as they have no balls.
Since the Russian Federation was able to reduce corruption from the 90’s much more successfully than Belarus, offer Belarus a Crimea style referendum to join the Russian Federation and the ability to elect a governor. The West will call it a NAZI invasion, genocide, and expansion but it’s better then letting it become a puppet NATO state filled with Minuteman silos, cruise missiles, drones, real nazis, Sunni terrorist camps, and bioweapons labs.
And this is just the evil things I can think of, imagine what the Neocons could do with Belarus / Poland confederation. I wouldn’t fly any passenger jets over that territory.
One of the main air routes to Moscow is over Belarus.
Regardless of who does what and which hands wring, the bottom line is, like Sevastopol/Krimu, Byelorus is a very important strategic and tactical part of the Russian West Front defense.
VVP was handed a s//t sandwich in late ’13 and did the best he could with it while avoiding outright shooting war involving Russian forces. He negated Da West’s quest to be right on the Orc/Russian borders by denying the best and most profitable area of Ukraine to Da West and turning it in to a buffer known as Novorossiya. Sevastopol came running home to Mother, a long sought event, and dragged Krimea with her.
Byelorus will not be allowed to fall to Da West, wet dreams in The Land of Poles, Berlin, Brussels and Foggy Bottom notwithstanding. This be the Bottom Line. Regardless of who says what, the image says all. Kill Luka and that soldier in the image in less than 24 hours will be standing on the west border, not the east border as now.
https://postimg.cc/V5wfm8ZM
Couple of comments on this superbly thorough piece of reporting:
” One idea circulated here and there is that Russia should intervene very openly, in the context of the Union State between Russia and Belarus and, even more so, under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Putin did mention this organization already, so this is definitely an option for Russia. But would that be a good option? “
While the zionist imperialist Deep State has been busy planning the Belorussian ‘colour revolution’ since this year beginning, Russian and Belorussian governments didn’t do any groundwork for countering such overt and covert movements (even though it was quite easy to apprehend and understand their moves – in recent past dozens, of such cases exist). If these governments suggest they have been very attentive, then those actions were very inefficient and ineffective indeed! Now, if the situation has to be salvaged, “good” or “bad” can’t be judged – the ONLY option for Russia and Belorussia is integration under existing ‘union of state’ treaty. This is NOT the time to go for a Crimea-type referendum, what have been suggested by many commenters and bloggers.
” while in military terms securing Belarus would not be a problem for the Russian military, in political terms it would be a major crisis as the West would, no doubt, pounce on that to not only impose more sanctions (that is not really a problem) but also to create a New Cold War in which mentally sane and patriotic Europeans would be “shouted down” by hysterical mantras about “the Russians are coming! the Russians are coming!” “
During past 400 years of empire-building / state-building in Russia, the zionist-capitalist clique within imperialist western Europe (counting USA-Canada-Australia-NZ as part of it) had / has been continuously and consistently smearing the image of orthodox slavic society of Russia and east Europe (much more than they slandered Tsar because Tsar was ‘their’ family). Could anybody forward any information that counters this proposition ? Even without any involvement in Belorussia, Russia will be put under another round of economic sanctions for perceived influence in Belorussian elections (true reason for that is: Russia is firing on all cylinders participating in BRI programme partnering with China despite initial internal resistance by the zionist-capitalist clique within Russian kleptocracy). So WHY NOT get involved and then get sanctioned ? At the least, (a) Belorussian community will be saved from the slow extinction as it has been happening in Novorussia (b) Not withstanding the problem of dealing with Poland-Lithuania common border at Suwalki Gap, Russia would still be able to control the Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) enclave in future conflicts (to all pacifists and peaceniks including myself, “hope against hope” is a wonderful dose of self-infused dilirium) including WW III.
” So here is the question: how could Russia remove this ruling class without a) major bloodshed and b) making it look like what Russia is really doing is trying to save Lukashenko?
… The bigger problem is how could Russia help the Belarusian people? “
“Revolution is a dirty word” – even Russian leadership got convinced by this zionist-capitalist propaganda. So, IMO the path towards helping Belorussians go through:
(1) infiltrate ENTIRE state apparatus in Belorussia (if it’s not too late)
(2) create propaganda to mobilise LARGE gathering on streets of major cities in support of Lukashenko
(3) initiate DIALOG with opposition parties and leaders
(4) create DIVISION among the opposition leadership by using any method that works
(5) declare almost FREE natural gas for Belorussian and Novorussian (donbass) consumers
(6) declare 100% INCREASE in value of imports from Belorussia
(7) get Lukashenko to SIGN and broadcast immediate implementation of ‘union of state’ treaty
(8) maintain Lukashenko as titular ‘head of state’ within union state appointing a new prime minister with actual executive powers
Could it be that Putin allowed this to happen?
After Ukraine and Maidan it seems unlikely that Russia would be unprepared for a repeat performance. Especially because the colour revolution format is so hackneyed and predictable.
So, what is really going on?
What’s happening? Russia letting a hundred NATO flowers bloom before pulling the trap door out from under Luka.
“The West has clearly taken a consolidated, common, position towards this crisis. The West does not recognize the outcome of the elections and the West has now thrown its full weight behind the so-called ‘opposition’.
Western leaders have called Putin, apparently to demand that Russia not intervene in Belarus. Putin apparently told them that what is taking place is Belarus is none of their business, thank you.
It is now clear that the West will accept nothing short of what we could call a ‘Ukronazi outcome’ and that the Empire will use all its resources short of military action to try to seize control of Belarus.”
Verdicts in the same order:
Yes, I saw that. However, that was the only piece (roughly one minute’s coverage) related to Belarus last night on Swedish MSM. The Euro-trash (European Council) declared the election results “null and void”. Immensely significant (not).
A little question here is what the pronoun ‘their’ above refers to. If ‘Russia’, then Putin is clearly lying which is good. Doesn’t matter whether the Western imbeciles believe him or not. If instead it refers to ‘Western partners’, then Putin is being outright rude which is even better, LOL.
If Psheks and LIthuanians and the usual theatrics of the bogus “International Community” (as per the first entry) are “all the Empire’s resources”, I shuld feel inclined to say that Lukashenko has absolutely nothing to worry about. He is dealing appropriately with the scum.
Again: What the hell was it that struck almost the entire blog by despair, doom and gloom about Belarus? Lukashenko was a ”dead man walking”, Russia/Moscow/The Kremlin/Putin doesn’t give a hoot about anything, and so on and so forth. If the more powerful among the Zionazis are following the comment sections here on the subject, they must have felt über-confident about the power of their inanities and angry vulgarities spread by the MSM sewer.
There are persistent, even if not documented, claims that Belarus opposition was (in part) funded by Russian oligarchat who were prevented from entering Belarus markets.
Thus “dialog with opposition” might be tried in Moscow, in as much as it can be in Belarus.
As for running the state, in some sense Belarus was more efficient doing more on less resources available. So, in a way, it would be better for who joins whom kind of reversed.
In any case, either of those do not seem to have a really compelling line in the long run, which in the long run is the main problem.
I agree with Saker on what Russia SHOULD do, BUT
Looks like Russia is saving Luka, Lavrov is saying that EU needs to not interfere, really that anyone needs not to interfere which really means free reign for Lukashenko to try to clear the mess up.
He will probably just cause a prolongation of the mess. Even if he stays as the president Russia gains very little, except a headache – which is still better than Banderistan 2.0.
Right now Belorussia is headed towards Banderistan status, this situation will deteriorate even if Luka wins out in the short term. The thing is it’s not up to him, the best he could to, after a quick mop up is to name his successor like Yeltsin did in 1999, and hopefully he chooses wisely.
The thing is there are only a few good options left and it’s doubtful that the right ones will be taken.
Belarussia needs alternative to Lukashenko
But he have killed all prorussian alternatives
So today there are only pro-AngloZionist ones
Lukashenko does not deserve one percent of support
But when young generation is brainwashed it is very hard to do anything
And not everyone is Erdogan
This is now problem for Russia, there is no good alternative, Anglo-zionist puppets are only existing alternative, young generation is brainwashed
So what to do …russian military intervention is nonsense … maybe to try some deal with Belarus military leadership …
Very difficult situation. For long time Lukashenko has been creating all possible preconditions for this BS.
I do not know what Will happen and what will Russia do, but he must go away.
At the moment there is some kind of stability between Ukraine and Donbass… but perhaps just as fragile as usual. Should Kiev be tempted to revert to its normal modus operandi……and considering despite endless calls for Macron and Merkel and Zelensky to reinvigorate Minsk Agreement by Putin and Lavrov(yet Merkel and co actively intervening in Belarus…what is the 53 m from EU to support Belarus actually going to be spent on ….just the ” persecuted” opposition and NGOs???)…it could then be possible for Russia to fully go in and protect Donbass on humanitarian grounds and kinda show EU has failed with regard to Minsk and Kiev..no one believes Kiev believes in Minsk and USA keeps funding them militarily and EU still finances grants loans etc to the Ukraine too) that Merkel has betrayed any sense frienship with Putin…..and this is what will happen to Belarus if you do not engage with meaningful and purposeful dialogue with results with Russia ??? The EU kinda needs a slap in the face?
But maybe Putin is worried or concerned re Turkey….who seems to be increasingly digging itself into deep doodoo in Syria let alone elsewheres.. possibility of more intense action between SAA and TAF and associated militants. …Iraq really getting objectionable against Turkish action beyond its borders… Arab tribes beginning to really stand up against SDF and coalition too…Turkey beginning to annoy NATO and EU(perhaps Putin is content to let Turkey become more than a running sore in those areas?)….or is Putin becoming more wary that for example his relationship with Erdo would be at severe risk as more than likely Russia might have to defend SAA against Turkey and become more involved east of the Euphrates……and would he ? Does Syria have equal importance as Belarus to Russia? Can Putin take in an extra issue of Belarus with Syria as well… or could he be tempted to finish off the Syria situation more quickly then deal with Belarus …?
And yes…EU seems quite content to not hold Kiev accountable for its past actions re the Maidan ….Odessa…..Donbass. That is what it thinks of Russians and Russian culture and society…. that is why it offers Belarussians an instant way to become western europeans. Van Leyden with her 53 m funds..to “mobilise” are the words she uses….revealing her wish to see the european ” army “go into Belarus.
Such as Kiev up to usual tricks…could this trigger more Russian intervention…
https://tass.com/emergencies/1191741
SBU organised criminal gangs to kidnap a leading Donbass military personality….part of an ongoing cohesive group of operations like the Minsk Wagner hoax set up perhaps?
https://theduran.com/poland-uses-chance-to-merge-lithuania/
Poland Ukraine Lithuania tie ups…..
From the linked article:
Corollary question: Does anybody believe these imbecilic wishes have the tiniest chance of materialising? Gównopolska’s ”leadership” is at best a very silly parody of Erdogan The latter is a power politician; the Poles have absolutely none of Erdogan’s calibre.
Plus, if the dumb poles want to redo borders – what about those large chunks of Germany they got after the war? Might they have to return them, too?
(btw, Saker, since you mention the Slovak minister – this is precisely why the west needed to get Fico out of the govt.; such statements would never have been made under the party Smer.)
Oh such a coincidence to raise the anti arussian hysteria…Navalny is claiming( before he went unconscious and is in hospitial) he has been gravely poisened by a cup of black tea at an airport whilst flying back to Russia from incarceration in Siberia .. in the company of his own medical staff…..instantly on UK tv news…..anyone suspect an agenda here?
JJ
This is from RT, it made me laugh tbh.
“Independent Moscow daily Kommersant, citing Telegram channel Pod’yem, claimed doctors suspected the use of drugs along with alcohol, the night before, may be a factor in Navalny’s illness. However, his spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, rubbished these claims, saying the activist didn’t drink alcohol on Wednesday.”
So “we know” it is not alcohol at least🤣
It seems it was his own aide Ilya Pakhomov, who gave him the drink at the airport:
https://sputniknews.com/russia/202008201080229116-airport-cctv-footage-allegedly-shows-navalny-being-handed-poisonous-drink-by-his-aide/
The doctors haven’t released anything but say he is stable condition but still in intensive care.
Of course the Western MSM are having a field day about this……
The more this plays out the more suspicious this gets. A plane from Germany has now landed in Omsk – despite Navalny being in a coma. The plane from Germany ties in with Merkel’s/Macron’s usual interference and the spokesperson stating France or Germany for hospitalisation as the family’s choice.
https://tass.com/society/1192145
The medical team have made it clear – he cannot travel in his current state. On top of tha,t law enforcement has stated that no poison was found but psychodysleptics were:
https://tass.com/society/1192169
Looking through the smoke and if one takes a step back –
1) Navalny has been named as one of the outside interferes in Belarus by the Government there
2) It suits the “West” to have this happen to keep up the negative image of Russia and Putin
3) Navalny and his family want to leave Russia (borders aren’t open) to get to their handlers in Germany – so this created the opportunity
4) Outside of Russia he will be used to help with Belarus or
5) They could also kill him and blame the Russians – seen this before – as the story has already been set by their compliant MSM
The Russian authorities must therefore not allow him to be transported to Germany whilst unstable and clinical tests and diagnosis haven’t been finished. Let the police interview him too. Make sure everything is clear and correct before he departs.
Once this is done – let him and his family leave and never return!
A small digressions
1…….Had it not been for the superb work of the FSB, it is quite possible that by now some Russian citizens would be sitting in Ukronazi jails. The Russian Foreign Ministry also appears to have been caught off guard. I don’t necessarily feel that “heads should roll” at the SVR/GRU, but at the very least there ought to be a full internal investigation……..
Maybe upside down or vice versa. The FSB is the successor to Andropovic’s KGB, which defeated the USSR in Afghanistan. In the interest of globalist agenda and Nomenklatura thieves who got rich during the transition period. Became a new old elite..GRU officers are being arrested all over the world, not the FSB. KGB / FSB officers did not help Serbs in the war, GRU did.The KGB security forces supported Mira and Slobodan Milosevic in order for the world to deal with the Serbs for a longer time, while the Nomenklatura did its job of a “successful transition” in both Russia and Serbia.
2…..We need to remember that the CPSU and its NomenKlatura was a fantastically corrupt organization, not necessarily at the member level, but as a whole……….
All of them pass the security check of KGB-FSB civil services, not of GRU.
3….The bigger problem is how could Russia help the Belarusian people?
The Nomenklatura is partially still in power in Russia through their grandchildren and agaents of the influence and wants the companies of the Belarusian people the same way like hyenas from the west. Let there be unification with Belarus, but we will see who will get the companies.
4…..This is, yet again, a situation where Putin’s biggest weapon might be his very high popular support (not only in Russia, but also, by all accounts, in Belarus)…..
This is not a fact, but a wish of the Nomenklature. Putin is not Russia. Russia has more capable people than he is. It is not good for one country to be tied to a cult of personality.
5….Russia also has to publicly warn the people of Belarus that if they allow the current US-controlled “opposition leaders” to come to power, Belarus will collapse just like the Ukraine did…..This will be a major headache for Russia, but Russia can easily survive this.
Unification should have taken place a long time ago, but it did not suit business club players and export-import leaders. It is interesting that you put the word Russia here, not Putin. Communist ideologues who still dream of the USSR, to which Putin also refers. Not to Greater Russia.
And one more thing, real Russia would not survive, but a globalist creation called Russia. You see ……if Knin defended itself with Belgrade help in Croatia, Serbs would still live in Krajina and not become assimilated or expelled. Belgrade would not become globalistic puppet … Learn from history.
I hope it’s not too stupid, inappropriate or offensive
Now, how about Russia throwing these gloves finally off, and nicely taking over the country? These are the Russian lands, how long is this western bullshit going to be tolerated? Actually, exactly the same case with the most of the Ukraine – it is the Russian land. Whose interests is Russia respecting, letting the things as they are in UE and BY? Yes, of course, both would be an financial nightmare to take over for quite a period; plundered or mismanaged as they had been.
Whose interests stand in the way, not to be injured at any price?
https://tass.com/world/1191815
Important statement..?..Belarus opposition council wishes to meet with Russia for consultation…yes wishes to stay connected but wants to acknowledge its european situation and context too…..could be a good move or one cannot have their own cake but eat anothers?
Russia is not supposed to talk to them. Only Lukashenko can talk to them.
If he think he should
He has already denounced them as a coup attempt…a bunch of neer do wells and reprobates …..but it might inddicate they recognise the foolishss of their situation…or their desparation …if they get “refused” they might appeal to EU for direct intervention….if any security action is taken against them especially it might start other things ……
Putin might suggest some other method of reconciliation even though he has recognised the election …?
MINSK, August 20. /TASS/. The Belarusian Prosecutor General’s Office has opened a criminal case into calls for seizing power after the opposition set up the Coordination Council, it told TASS on Thursday. “Yes, we confirm that a criminal case has been opened into that [the creation of the council] under Section 361 of the Criminal Code,” the Prosecutor General’s Office said.
Asking to talk with Moscow is sign of weakness … I did not believe in this possibility, but Lukashenko is taking initiative
This time color revolution will probably be unsuccessful
But they will not give up just like that.. .
Transition is necessary however. And if Lukashenko has any brain in his head, he will push toward integration between RF and Belarus. It is only way to save Belarus in long term.
In my own humble opinion, in this bad situation the Belarus people are in right now with few good options on the table, for the two Russian states, the best first step to stabilize the situation would be; a) to reach out to the Belarus opposition that is not under the control of the AZ and b) to give Lukashenko the list with names of all the security risks for the Belarus state, and replace these with reliable patriotically oriented people . But it is also very important to keep on informing thru media and other channels what the consequences for the state would be if this western sponsored color coup d’etat was to succeed, as well as to set the conditions for (when the situation is stabilized) for a new patriotically oriented president, that would place the interests, the well being of the Belarus state in the first place, and not become another Poroshenko who has transformed Ukraine in a rabid anti Russian AZ colony.
But before all the above mentioned could happen, it is imperative that Russia has it’s own mind set,what it wants to achieve and determine clear goals and a road map what their actions should be both in the short time as well as in the long run in their relation to Belarus, and clearly spell out for the AZ empire what the red lines are which Russia will not tolerate to be crossed , e.g. that the situation drastically worsens and that their is a high risk that Belarus becomes another Ukraine.
As for the last option if nothing of above could change the situation for the better, I would go for the military option, why do i say this? Simpley becouse the empire is in a war with both Russia everybody else that doesant want to become willing subjects of their exploitation and their vision of the so called “progressive civilizational realm” The Russians wil be damned wheter they do it or not, but the AZ empire will have to give in to the realites, just as they did with Crimea, they will bark and dilsike it, but at the end of the day, they will beforced to accept it as fait accompli.
As goes for Luka, I don’t think or for that matter that he can or deserves to be saved, because mostly of the mess that is happening in Belarus today is due to his own stupidity, sitting on two chairs civilizationally diametrically opposed to each other, is never a good recipe for a prosperous future, especially when one of them only asks from you to be a reliable and a friendly neighbor/brother and which keeps your economy alive on it’s own expense, while the other demands total submission to the empires “values”. This is really a no brainer where Belarus belongs, not to mention the fact that these two people are really one, both culturally, linguistically, religiously and in every other way.
And lastly the Belarus people, I definitely believe that these people are worth saving, from a Ukrainian style “democratization process” with all the cookies and “goodies” from the American bakery (embassy) in Kiev, since they tend to leave a very bitter aftertaste and are hell of expensive.
One wonders if the situation can be resolved to everyones satifaction…..it might serve as an example that Ukraine could follow ……ever optimistically?
Probably not .
Since almost no one here has ever been to Belarus.Or at least in the last 20 years.Yes there maybe a few but it would probably be a very few.I thought I’d post this video by an Italian-American that travels all over the world.He actually lives in Banderastan now and has a lot of videos about Ukraine.He stays away from politics and his videos are just about a countries civil society that he see’s.As well has beautiful photography of the places he visits.I doubt that he is pro-Russian,though he doesn’t really talk about Russia.He seems like a old style hippy.But does very well with his videos.
From what you can see in the videos,and he talks about, Minsk is a lovely city.And as easy as it was to film,go all over,and meet people.I’d say the claims about Lukashenko being such a tyrant are overblown.Unless you are working against the government you have nothing to worry about.And in any country working against the government of the country you are in is reason to worry.So here is the first of three videos he did in Belarus,enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n50AAoLrvtw&t=55s
Thanks super report with local Minsky music. Why can’t Anglo zionists just rot in London and NY and Telaviv AND leave the rest of the world alone in peace and one piece!!
Thanks for posting this link. Minsk looks great.
What I see is this… It’s really nice and curated, but people want to be themselves. They want to be free.
To put in baseball analogy, they want to go out there are swing the bat. They are ok to strike out, but want a chance to hit a home run. I believe this is what it’s all about.
The West is promising that delusion and getting people jacked on it.
In every country in which the West cannot dictate its wishes or have free rein, the MSM bestow the title of “opposition leader” on someone whom they determined will gladly comply with Western demands.
As soon as can they identify a compliant stooge, they quickly give him or her the title: Opposition Leader, even if the majority of persons in the country arent even familiar with this individual.
In Belarus, this individual is now Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
In Russia MSM chose as their ” opposition leader” Alexei Navalny even those he cant get enough support in Russia to come anywhere near to getting elected as leader- just seeing news circulating that the “opposition leader” and “Putin critic” is now gravely ill and of course the MSM has already determined that he was “poisoned by the Kremlin”.
In Venezuela Mr. Guido, is not only their loyal opposition leader, they have gone further to determine that he is the president.
The arrogance and hubris with which the West conduct itself is offensive and reflective of the colonial mindset that they still harbor because they still feel its ok to decide who gets to “govern the locals” and keep them in line.
Russia and Putin must do whatever it takes to ensure that Belarus does not become a Western colonial outpost on its doorstep.
A hostile Belarus would be an existential security threat to Russia and this Color Revolution underway must not be allowed to succeed.
Selah
The US found a use for Navalny. They UK’d him. (All “Putin poisonings” have the greasy hand of London all over them.)
This timing is indication of the fact that the Belarus situation needed a change of Media massaging.
Putin had taken charge. Therefore, Putin needed to be smeared as a murderer again.
Message from the West: We can’t sanction you, but we can demonize you.
Navalny was a spent case, useless, losing all value. Martyr him! That’s how the handlers of the heroic leaders of color revolutions are curated. They are much more valuable dead than alive.
By poisoning Navalny, the West is trying to poison the perception of Russia for the Belorussians. It’s elementary.
We don’t have all the facts yet. But my theory is ‘highly likely’.
Totally… Tichanovskaja escaped, so they used Navalny. Any idiot will do, as long as it makes Russia look bad.
Your theory is the most probable because the CIA uses it time and again. It’s not meant to fool Russians, just the clueless American public who have heard the Big Lie so often that they just reflexively believe it and expect more. Actually, they’d miss their regular dose of Putin demonisation if they did not get it. Hating Russia is just considered part of good mental hygiene in America.
Navalny was always pretty much of a gadfly who struggled to get 20 people to a street demo. Regardless of who poisoned him (again), and that’s assuming this is not another of many fake incidents involving this pseudo hero, it does not withstand the stink test in that Russia has precisely zero reason to do something unkind to him. To do harm to him elevates him to status somewhat his current status of ‘who?’, which he richly deserves.
Auslander
The current status of “Who?”
Lolz
As for demonising Putin, he might as well go ahead & do what he has to do…As they say, in for a penny, in for a pound.
But I have the feeling the wind has turned. The members of the “coordination council” are leaving due to threat of criminal indictments. Even the BBC admits the optimism (of regime change) is fading.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53846815
First thing I thought of when I saw the headline was ‘Nemtsov’.
Another one of those. Almost no one has heard of him here, and then within a few hours of the event, it is on talk radio and the news headlines.
Sign of the times . .
Small green guys are back.
https://strategika51.org/2020/08/20/les-petits-hommes-verts-sont-de-retour/
From the comment section in your link nobody.
-The photos should be sourcées for a minimum of credibility.
1st, it is not Russian military, but serb special forces : http://rtv.rs/sr_lat/drustvo/predstavljeno-naoruzanje-i-vojna-oprema-vojske-srbije_982373.html .
The 2nd, https://aviation21.ru/tupolev-peredal-v-ekspluataciyu-ocherednoj-samolyot-specialnogo-naznacheniya-tu-214/ .
And the source of your article, because I found nowhere : https://korrespondent.net/world/4264725-v-mynske-pryzemlylsia-bort-fsb-rossyy-smy .
😉
So you just helped spread fake news😉
Decided to build on my earlier statement about what the U.S. Neocons would do with Belarus (serious) using ‘they are projecting onto Russia what they want to (and have) done. Past Neocon projection in [brackets]
What Neocons will do =>[when Neocons accused Russia of doing it]
1. They only care about the land, not the people, a depopulated territory is fine w/the Neocons =>[Ukraine depop, Syria accused RuAf/Assad of it]
2. Use it as a missile base => [Kaliningrad accusation to withdraw from INF]
3. Assassinations =>[Skripal]
4. Military expansion, military bases =>[Crimea, Ossetia, Ukraine, Syria]
5. Recruiting Nazis =>[Ukraine, Russia]
6. Fake elections =>[Russia]
7. Information war, accuse Russia of meddling. => [Do I really need to provide any examples for this one???]
8. Harass Russian aircraft =>[MH17, Iran’s flight to Beirut]
10. Religious intolerance => [Ukraine]
And just because Neocons are vicious and petty, as Belarus citizens flee their broken country and head to the EU, Canada, and the U.S. and in desperation some of their women engage in Prostitution to survive the Neocons and men to other crimes, the Neocons will suddenly call them Russians
Putin, annex the country through referendum, offer to pay their enormous foreign debts, it’s a sweet deal and much better than the IMF / EU would ever give them. End this nightmare now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1296084058670338049
The EU commission has announced €53 M for Belarus with assurances that they “stand with the people”. This is a laughably small amount of money. (A parting gift?)
This analysis sadly shows how much you got it wrong last time-it is more an apologia for Pres Putin and recognition that once again the foreign services were asleep at the switch This is on Putin & Lavrov & their hilarious strategy of reaching out to Western partners -partners don’t try to put a knife in you at every occasion
The Western media cannot possibly hate Russia any more so why worry-they always hate you when you succeed
Putin lost Ukraine-now he has lost Belarus -if that is the case-Russia will no longer be a world power-if Ukraine was a dagger -Belarus will be a throat-cutter
sad you are already rationalizing the loss &and those bizarre comments about what Putin was elected to do
First-is the defense of the realm
The Saker did a mighty fine sitrep in his work on Belarus and Auslander nails it. “Anonymouse” mentions Mother Russia needs another leader at the helm”. Wut? Does one change horses whilst fording a deep stream? I did’nt think so. Djole and Bosnian Croat? I’m not going to waste my time on their silliness. President Putin and his Ставка are to be commended on their Art of Statecraft in these troubled times.
Tikhon Bogomolov
Thanks for this, Saker. I concur on the gravity of the situation – maddening and scary, and yet so predictable at the same time. We don’t see all the internal stuff, but it sure seems like Russians were not well prepared. If they had been, why not cultivate some palatable replacement for Luko? Finding an acceptable leader now will be very difficult.
Agree on the military action – the price for Russia would be too high. Clandestine forces could be used, but if you’re correct that KGB has been infiltrated, then that might not work either.
What I don’t get, though… I know many B-russians drive over to Latvia and Litva (Vilnius is close to the border) – so they can see these depopulated statelets; also, many are aware of what happened to Ukraina after maidan. Why are these developments not a deterrent? Or are people really so stupid?
EU is exhibiting its standard colonial behaviour – BR is not even an EU member, so what does it matter if it accepts elections in BR?
Can Luko do a national address and explain how the protests have been hijacked? Or has he lost all credibility?
The anti-Russia B-russians must be some sick joke, considering that they are basically Russians.
One wonders if the naivity of the opposition leader is a leading example of the populus…..hope not….I think there are more manipulative agitators eg behind the strikes and mobilisations … instant flags clothing costumes etc of the protests…..
…..any manifestoes street publicity examples available?
All I have to offer is my opinion. Years ago, talking about the western plan to topple 7 countries in 5 years he mentioned that one thing they learned from the first Iraq war was that Russia would not interfere. And thus far, they have not interfered militarily. Yes, Russia has gotten involved but there is no military confrontation yet. The foreign policy of the western empire continues full steam ahead. There should be no doubt that what is happening in Belarus is a further western project to establish the new world order. The real target, as usual is Russia. In other words, this is war. The bombing hasn’t started yet, but it will. I hope the Russian leadership truly understands how serious this is. Anything short of total surrender and submission of Russia will only bring more condemnation and sanctions from the west. So really, this should not be a factor anymore in Russian thinking. They are already at war. They must not allow the west to overrun Belarus. They already have a foothold! Enough! I don’t know how Russia will counter this but there is no time to lose and they need to be deeply involved. There is no time for walking gently so as not to hurt anyone’s feelings. The very existence of Russia and humanity is at stake. If the west manages to complete their world order plans it will be world feudalism and mass death; a boot stomping on a human face, forever! Well, no I don’t believe it will be forever, but that is a different subject having to do with Divine intervention.
This is war. Russia, China and other countries fighting for their survival must not give an inch. I expect the shooting could start soon while they have most of the people under forced isolation, wearing masks because of a fools virus.
It is show time. The real deal. End game. I hope everyone understands this.
Generally, your view of the situation is correct. However, the war is not kinetic and won’t be.
The war against China and Russia is economic, financial, technological, biological, chemical, climatic, Informational, psychological, covert, overt, multi-spectrum, tactical, logistical, strategic, racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious, subversive and legalistic.
What it will not be is a direct war. The West (US Hegemon + vassals) is terrified of Russia’s military. So, too, the West is not equipped with proxies who want to fight China. So, on the West side of Eurasia or the East side of Eurasia the West will not be revving up the tanks and planes to engage either or both in traditional warfare.
The latest doctrine announcement from Russia concerning any form of missile, plane or drone incoming toward Russia will be sufficient cause for Russia to unleash overwhelming force (kinetic and/or nuclear) at whoever launched, ordered the launch or is responsible for the launch, changes the “war” dynamic. Russia isn’t going to start anything. But seconds after someone else does, the aggressors will be obliterated. And they have the means to do it and their means are unstoppable. The West is actually naked against Russian firepower.
So, they have a plethora of other war-making tools. And they are using all of them.
Larchmonter, my friend and old comrade, you nailed it in a nutshell. Baring some nutcase who is dumb enough to launch any kind of projectile against Mat Rossiya, the war will continue as you so succinctly laid out, constant and continuous attacks against Rossiya and Katai but always microns short of that one telling real shot that will bring oblivion to the shooter, and unfortunately to a lot of us ordinary folks, too.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One, ebook edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
I really hope you are both correct, though I have serious doubts. It’s not as if the ‘tools’ they are using are already not bad enough. I tend to view those running the west with their new world order scheme as a rabid fox. Normally, a cunning fox will try and take advantage but will not do anything to endanger itself. It will only get so close. However, in its current state, it is only a matter of time before it crosses the line and tries to bite. It can’t help itself. It is sick! Perhaps you will change your mind when Belarus is crawling with foreign troops with nuclear missiles sitting at Russia’s front door.
Their will be no foreign troops in Byelorus. Ain’t going to happen.
I have to wonder how many times we continue to escape a war being ignited by some fool ideologue pushing one step too far, or perhaps even an accidental launch taking place that triggers an obliterating response. In 1914 war became inevitable once the armies were mobilized, but today it takes a matter of minutes for a missile to be launched, and there are hundreds of launch-ready nuclear armed missiles on both sides waiting for a permission order to be transmitted from the football or cheget.
i think you underestimate how bad lukashenko is and has been. he did not simply lose credibility among belarusians, he has had none. also, the belarusians are not russians as you say, but have their own history and language which has been outlawed because lukashenko can’t speak it himself which is absolutely ridiculous. it may be true however that belarusians feel very much connected to russia, and the west is naive if they think they can wedge it away from russian influence.
UNZ has done a great job with his alternate info site. Sometimes the commentary is even better than the articles. The commentary here is really fun, mostly childish.
You, of course, are correct, the Byelorussians have their own nation and language. Also, you hit the nail on her head; Lukaszenko doesn’t even speak their language.
I spent time amongst those in Grodno and Minsk. They’re fine people. They don’t need to be ruled by Moscow. Perhaps, however, that might be inevitable.
BTW, I found that the majority of people in the region of Grodno understood the Polish language. As in America, where we have Germanic, Hispanic and Slavic Americans mostly deeming themselves as Americans… the Polonians there had similar sentiments. They felt as if they were Byelorussians. I found that most of the Byelorussians are hard working, decent Europeans and are proud members of EuroMan’s heritage, traditions and values. You forgot more than most spewing out ignorant comments. Suggestion: If you have ot visited Byelorussia, consider spending a few weeks there.
Putting sees the whole chessboard. Color revolutions serve multiple purposes..one of them being a trap for Russia. Putting will address this patiently, methodically, strategically like he always does. He will find a way for Lukashenko to save face and allow for Belarus to build a long lasting comprehensive peace with Russia..if not steps toward full integration.
We are 74 days from the US presidential election. Trump should win and then I see the next crisis as emerging conflict within the Unites States. As sad as that is, the rest of the world may get a big break as the US attempts to extinguish the roaring fire in their own house. I have read of the DNC preparing for large scale separatist movements inside California, Washington and Oregon should Trump win. This would be the greatest crisis the US has faced since the Civil War. I am sure Putin will play for time and see what the chessboard looks like after Nov 3.
Do the people in the streets of Belarus know their history? I have not been to Belarus so I don’t know their internal political situation but I know that their fathers and mothers died because of the Empire arming Hitler and sending him East. Once or twice every century the horde from the west was sent to annex their territory and kill as many of them as possible. Swedes, Toutonics, Poles, Europe, and on it went. How stupid are they? They don’t care about you they just want your most educated like they did with the Germans, Hungarians, the Czech, and the Yugoslavs. I shake my head at the common stupidity of the human race.
Poland has the key role in all this, allied with England and USA. They want to take over Belarus ever since 1600s and since Brexit have been given training in psy ops and infiltration by the English. These Polish Ultrationalists are anti EU like their masters in London, but stay in the EU to try and force it in a Atlanticist orientation while draining EU funds. Poland is building new army bases for English and American Land forces, using this stolen EU money, ready for a invasion of Belarus. The Polish army is now better armed than any EU country because of this. Germany with investments like Nord Stream and billions of trade with Russia and China, is a now classed as a enemy of London, Washington and Warsaw. Trump said German industry and Nord Stream is an enemy of the USA and will sanction them. This will turn German opinon towards the Eurasian / Russian alliance…..
We need a Russia- (eurasian oriented) EU alliance to challenge this Anglo-Polish agression against Belarus and Russia.
The way I see it is that removal of A. Lukashenko was in the interest of both Putin and West for quite some time but for different reasons. The key problem is not just who is going
to replace him, but under whose conditions. Note that there are two oppositions movements
(possible more) and the Putin’s problem is how to make ‘his’ opposition movement taking over without civil war, without large scale destruction, and with neat neutralization of the other ones. The cherry on this cake would be to make American foreign policy claim success for this removal.
Best regards, Spiral
(1:) ABBs supposed trips for training into Bjelorussia, whilst probably staying in a Polish ttaining camp clióse to that boarder incubator of terrorist shooters.
(2:) The probability that his co-murderer got trained at some commercial camp in Bjelorussia. (ABB wa right-handed, the killer of babies/i,e: future Young Norwegian Social Democrats who capitulated to Norwegian Terror Police Tropp was left-handed according to in capture photos/– or (maybe pre-planned) video footage).
(3:) That that camp was also a training fascility for future use as evidence for “Future Russian dirty terrorism plans”.
(4:) Snipers at Maidan — cultivated and recruited/broght up somewhere aside from in The Kaukasus/Georgia?
(At the ABB /Anders Behring Breivik trial after his killing spree in Oslo and against the Social Democrats’ island camp, passport photoes of his leaving and entry into Bielorûs got presented as evidence — but no proof he had actually received military or sniper traning in those purprted camps.)
(5: Suchalike factors as those above should be worthy of drawing our attention and discurnement in any other thuslike happening if occuring soon in Bielorusia!!!
(6:) Much attetion should be drawn to the use of differentiating flags. The opposition use a flag from 1920 that drags back to the Polish-Lithuanian times when their aristocracy hailed from the Germanic Knights and wanted Lithuania to be extended from the Baltdicks and all the way to the Black Sea. — and further into Russia so as to follow up Roman Papistic ambitions to quell Eastern Christianity (those who did nor believe humans were besmerached with Original sin inherited from Adam having eaten of the Fruit of Knowledge– the eaven more monotheistic (monocephallic) easternly Churches (that had put Trinity(the daogma that there are three Gods) deeplly into some scesspool and into doubt) and thus banished into Asia were even the more against this concept — even though Christianity startedjust there as a protese against the duality of Mitra and Zaharatusstra, so that Marco Polo besmearched them as Idolators — even thogh they were the opposite!).
(7:) Spengler wrote “Die Untergang des Abendlands” (The fall of the West). His thesis was — quite apprropriatly — that “western Culture” ha progressed from Babilon to Egypt (he forgot the Hebrewsa and Phoeitians) and thence to Greece- Rome .. Italy — Netherlands/England and stopped there. Spenler could not envision Japan nor China. neither as a jew nor as a Germanic/Aryan “Übermens
chen theoritist (his category included the Asckenazim, I surmise!)
I take a puff of Kasbjek (not Bjelomar Kanal) and laugh or cry.
s
Siold not tese( fact(ores)bee tacen into account?
When it gets to the marxist mishmash, I’ve got to stop reading. Stalin was better than the bolsheviks because he returned to a modicum of civilization after the total barbarism of the bolshevik totalitarian project; not because he was a better marxist! Do you want to see the present-day equivalent of marxists? Look at Bernard Henri Levy, Soros and the US neocons. So much for the so-called science of historical materialism! It’s a pseudo intellectual cover for a project of antichristian totalitarianism.
Excellent assessment. Whatever Putin does he has to do it with openness, forcefully and in full ‘discussion’ with Belarusian people. He cannot flinch and he cannot wait much longer. The nonsensical housewife with her overnight makeover in EU salons and teleprompter speeches written by some washington narc needs swiftly depositing in the bin. Once stability has been restored with a minimum of Russian intervention Belarus can continue to find its own way under the protective wing of Russia. This will send the right messages to the EU, the predatory mad hatters in Poland and of course to the neocons preparing to move into the whitehouse en masse under Biden. This is NO time for the faint hearted, much can be achieved behind closed doors in terms of purges but come the moment Putin must be fully open, ultimately the time for caring about what the west thinks has long gone, that ship has sailed fully, it’s all about Russia looking after itself because no one else who can be trusted is ever going to look out for her.
US formally requests ‘snapback’ of UN sanctions against Iran, even though it exited nuclear deal.
Iran China and Russia are saying that the US withdrew from the jcpoa in 2018 so it has no right to use the jcpoa to Request Snapback sanctions.
Richard goldberg who favors a regime change in Iran said that the US has the procedural power to reestablish UN sanctions and that in 30 days america will win.
I Don t understand. The US has no legal rights to do what he is doing at the UN and there is nothing to do to block the US? If it s the case it s crazy.
My dream:
1. The snapback will publicly fail and the Trump-sters will see that by leaving the JCPOA, you know the agreement where the U.S. did not get any benefits, Trump defanged the U.S.’s most powerful enforcement mechanism.
It would even be hard for FOX to spin this as anything but a complete failure.
2. A U.S. court rules against Trump’s seizure of the 1 million barrels of gasoline because it is Venezuelan and not Iranian property and the DC circuit court only authorized the seizing Iranian cargo. Not only that but Trump did them a favor by sending it to Houston which is much closer to Caracas than the Persian Gulf. Then either a Russian or Chinese tanker delivers the gasoline to Venezuela. I would laugh and laugh, and laugh.
I’m actually surprised that Trump is trying to invoke snapback himself. I thought he would get the stooge U.K. to do it for him. The U.K. has no self-respect or independence.
EU stands with the protesters said Michel and they condemn police violence but I did not hear Michel or other EU officials reacting on the police violence in The Hague against elderly women today. Performed by masked agent provocateurs jumping out of a police van. Media covered it as anti Covid measures hooligans attacking police while it was a reaction of good men on the beating of elderly persons by these masked government thugs. Democracy or moral values in Europe? History. Hypocrits
(1:) ABBs (the Norwegianbterrorist’s) supposed trips for training into Bjelorussia,were probably whilst staying in a Polish trrobability that his co-murderer got trained at some commercial camp in Bjelorussia. (ABB was right-handed, the killer of babies/i,e: future Young Norwegian Social Democrats who capitulated to Norwegian Terror Police Troop was left-handed according to in capture photos/– or (maybe pre-planned) video footage).
(3:) That camp seems also a training facility for future use as evidence for “Future Russian dirty terrorism plans”.
(4:) Snipers at Maidan — cultivated and recruited/broght up somewhere aside from in The Kaukasus/Georgia?
(At the ABB /Anders Behring Breivik trial after his killing spree in Oslo and against the Social Democrats’ island camp, passport photoes of his leaving and entry into Bielorûs got presented as evidence — but no proof he had actually received military or sniper traning in those purprted camps.)
(5: Suchalike factors as those above should be worthy of drawing our attention and discurnement in any other thuslike happening if occuring soon in Bielorusia!!!
(6:) Much attention should be drawn to the use of differentiating flags. The opposition use a flag from 1920 that drags back to the Polish-Lithuanian times when their aristocracy hailed from the Germanic Knights and wanted Lithuania to be extended from the Baltdics and all the way to the Black Sea. — and further into Russia so as to follow up Roman Papistic ambitions to quell Eastern Christianity (those who did nor believe humans were besmerached with Original sin inherited from Adam having eaten of the Fruit of Knowledge– the eaven more monotheistic (monocephallic) easternly Churches (that had put Trinity(the dogma that there are three Gods) deeply into some sesspool and into doubt) and thus banished into Asia were even the more against this concept — even though Christianity started just there as a protest against the duality of Mitra and Zaharatusstra, so that Marco Polo besmearched them as Idolators — even thogh they were the opposite!).
(7:) Spengler wrote “Die Untergang des Abendlands” (The fall of the West). His thesis was — quite apprropriatly — that “western Culture” ha progressed from Babilon to Egypt (he forgot the Hebrewsa and Phoeitians) and thence to Greece- Rome .. Italy — Netherlands/England and stopped there. Spengler could not envision Japan nor China. neither as a jew nor as a Germanic/Aryan “Übermenschen theoritist (his category included the Asckenazim, I surmise!)
I take a puff of Kasbjek (not Bjelomar Kanal) and laugh or cry.
IMO, Russia should enforce a major propaganda campaign in Belarus in favor of a pro-Russian and anti-western movement. FSB has to be entrusted with this task.
Lukashenko cannot be trusted. He’s looking for Putin’s help only because he’s in a precarious situation. If he survives this, again he would start cooperating with the West.
If there’s no real alternative for Lukashenko, at least Russia should start empowering an anti-EU movement in Belarus.
All of these post-Soviet republics seem disasters of corruption. I think part of the reason for the chaos is that there doesn’t seem to be a clear ideology/plan about the path forward to a healthy, functioning society. Putin and his team accomplished this in Russia, but it seemed more a matter of personalities then a system.
I don’t understand the conflict in Belarus in a granular sense, in terms of how the factions are appealing to the public and what they are promising. If it is true they have been infiltrated by foreign agents this could offer an angle for the government to respond, if they can reveal “smoking guns”. Syria might offer some lessons or solutions for Belarus, given the similarities. In Syria, they are trying to end the war with negotiations to share power. Would this clash with the effort to merge Russia and Belarus?
I agree that it is very difficult to find a good options now. Whenever the situation is very complicated let us proceed from basics, What do we know for sure? Vladimir Putin is exceptional expert on deepest levels of martial strategy. In retrospective all his decisions in battles prove that it is so. People who did not put time and effort in researching Sun Tzu or Miamoto Musashi, for example, hardly can be the judge for that,
Second, Putin is great representative of Russian national Idea. Vladimir Soloviev, Ivan Illin, and Nikolai Berdjajev, form the basis for that. Better basis is hard to imagine. If we observe where he started from, 20 years ago, he fought miraculously well.
Who is the opponent? It has many names but mostly worked through British Empire in last 500 years. The war is ongoing in last 120 years at least kinetically, economically, and through ideology. WWI and WWII were only acute stages of the ongoing struggle. Vladimir Putin, and people around him, in my opinion started turning the tables in last 20 years because they finally, saw through the opponents plans and strategy. From this strategy very little is in the open , even now, so the war is not in the open.
With Belarus, as with Ukraine, (which are culturally predominantly Russian) battle can not be won on those territories alone. As we can see in every country nowadays there are at east two different parts: “fifth column representatives” and people seeking freedom and happiness.You can not divide them easily. If I see Putin’s strategy correctly he is seeking to resurrect parts of old European culture into life again.He tries to nurse some European cultural streams. That can help the struggle immensely because it would put light on nihilism and duplicity of Anglo-American Empire. The result is less than obvious so far. But, from success on that front depends much more than meets the eye.
How to protect yourself against a color revolution for dummies:
– try to have a modicum of support among the population;
– try to have a semblance of legitimate elections;
– if you have no idea what the level of popular support is, try to have an intelligence service or other means of social research that will get this information for you;
– have your intelligence service – if you have one – assess the level of foreign penetration of your country including the intelligence services.
– don’t wait until the CR is already underway; your options will be limited.
Anyone know Putin’s address? Seems like he could use a copy too.
“I think that it is crucial that Russia reach out to the non-US-controlled opposition in Belarus, publicly, and try to establish some kind of dialog.” – As far as I know, from experience, Russia does not talk to opposition in any country but it’s government. They are not like US in that regards. I would like for Saker to explain how Russia can publicly open a dialog with non-US-controlled opposition when it is against their principle.
(1:) ABBs supposed trips for training into Bjelorussia, whilst probably staying in a Polish ttaining camp clióse to that boarder incubator of terrorist shooters.
(2:) The probability that his co-murderer got trained at some commercial camp in Bjelorussia. (ABB wa right-handed, the killer of babies/i,e: future Young Norwegian Social Democrats who capitulated to Norwegian Terror Police Tropp was left-handed according to in capture photos/– or (maybe pre-planned) video footage).
(3:) That that camp was also a training fascility for future use as evidence for “Future Russian dirty terrorism plans”.
(4:) Snipers at Maidan — cultivated and recruited/broght up somewhere aside from in The Kaukasus/Georgia?
(At the ABB /Anders Behring Breivik trial after his killing spree in Oslo and against the Social Democrats’ island camp, passport photoes of his leaving and entry into Bielorûs got presented as evidence — but no proof he had actually received military or sniper traning in those purprted camps.)
(5: Suchalike factors as those above should be worthy of drawing our attention and discurnement in any other thuslike happening if occuring soon in Bielorusia!!!
(6:) Much attetion should be drawn to the use of differentiating flags. The opposition use a flag from 1920 that drags back to the Polish-Lithuanian times when their aristocracy hailed from the Germanic Knights and wanted Lithuania to be extended from the Baltdicks and all the way to the Black Sea. — and further into Russia so as to follow up Roman Papistic ambitions to quell Eastern Christianity (those who did nor believe humans were besmerached with Original sin inherited from Adam having eaten of the Fruit of Knowledge– the eaven more monotheistic (monocephallic) easternly Churches (that had put Trinity(the daogma that there are three Gods) deeplly into some scesspool and into doubt) and thus banished into Asia were even the more against this concept — even though Christianity startedjust there as a protese against the duality of Mitra and Zaharatusstra, so that Marco Polo besmearched them as Idolators — even thogh they were the opposite!).
(7:) Spengler wrote “Die Untergang des Abendlands” (The fall of the West). His thesis was — quite apprropriatly — that “western Culture” ha progressed from Babilon to Egypt (he forgot the Hebrewsa and Phoeitians) and thence to Greece- Rome .. Italy — Netherlands/England and stopped there. Spenler could not envision Japan nor China. neither as a jew nor as a Germanic/Aryan “Übermenschen theoritist (his category included the Asckenazim, I surmise!)
I take a puff of Kasbjek (not Bjelomar Kanal) and laugh or cry.
The analysis of the Belarusian, Russian, and near neighbors points of view stated above is impressive and convincing. But I cannot view this matter as being of even high importance.
Because I am looking from the point of view of the collapsing empire, for whom the military is its last and only support. It must continually threaten to use this military, and cannot only threaten — it must use it, and it constantly does. And in using its power, it also wears it down.
Women who have been taught to be feminists, and thus to hate men, are integrated into our fighting “machine”. Non whites, who have been taught to hate whites, are also integrated into this “machine”. We can expect miracles of heroic cooperation from such military forces.
Just the other day I watched a video of the US Navy band singing popular music pieces. Two of the singers were pretty openly homosexual, with way too much touching and carrying on — right on stage. A senior CPO spoke to one of the pair, again, right on stage during the performance. Made no difference in their behavior.
US weapons are built out of diversity and inclusivity — by workers who never had to pass an exam. Engineering is, after all, so white supremacist, and so very insensitive. Think of the F35 and the USS Zumwalt, or the supercarrier whose weapons elevators and airplane launchers don’t work.
If I were a soldier of an “enemy” country and I saw this lean, mean, machine bearing down on me, I’d roll over and continue my nap on my other side.
Major American cities are reducing their police forces while parts of them suffer continual riots, looting, and killing. And this has become so common that no one even comments on it. Utter insanity characterizes political discourse. Please don’t expect me to list lots of examples. Just take one: how many sexes are there?
The leaders of countries to the west of Russia may be pig headed fools, but at some point they will start to have doubts about the distant and very crazy monster that they thought they could serve to their own advantage.
Yes, this very evil monster possesses many very destructive weapons, but there is no way to placate them. Even serving them guarantees you nothing in terms of security. The only reasonable strategy is to align with Russia. People cling to old ideas and points of view for too long. But for each individual there will be a vision, a sight, say an American city destroyed in the new civil war, that will, as the saying goes: concentrate the mind.
We are all on a terrible knife edge; but Belarus is not the central point.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6111280.html
…I don´t think so… ;)
Mikhail Enotovich, thank you for posting this. These sizeable demonstrations over the last few days in Gomel, Mogilev, Vitebsk and a number of other large cities in Belarus including Minsk, have not really been covered by the English-language press, and yet they show considerable support for Lukashenko. I am particularly struck in these videos by how clean and pleasant the cities of Belarus seem to be, and how polite the people.
Readers might also like to watch Lukashenko’s speech to and subsequent discussion with the workers at the Minsk Tractor Works. Whatever you may think of him- and clearly many within Belarus are fed up with him- he does not lack courage and is capable of arguing persistently and with elan.
After seeing this speech, and watching the counter-demonstrations, which show definite signs of more organised campaigning (eg ‘Я Мы Батька’) it seems to me Lukashenko is unlikely to be toppled.
Any view of Russia’s largely defensive foreign policy under Putin must rule out the possibility they will march in, for example, the First Guards Tank Army, but this does not necessarily mean they are not helping the president behind the scenes. As the Saker has said many times, most of this present geopolitical rivalry is being fought by informational rather than kinetic means. Besides this, any military demarche would upset the Germans at a time when Nordstream 2 is about to be completed.
There is also the correlation of forces in Minsk to consider. Note the lack of street fighters and tent city, such as the opposition had in Kiev, and the relative unity of the state security structures. Let us recall that even in Kiev, which was a largely hostile environment for Yanukovich, the Berkut riot police remained loyal to the government and would probably have prevailed had the president given them his full backing.
Overall, I think there is good reason to believe that in this case a similarly tragic outcome, with all the loss of life such as we saw in Odessa, Kiev, Donetsk etc, will be avoided.
It may be relevant that Mr. Putin is currently meeting with the Council of the Federation, the upper house of parliament, which alone is empowered to:
<>
(“decide on the question of using the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation outside the territorial borders of the Russian Federation”)
Is there something in the wind ?
I spent several years in Eastern Europe. I rode motorcycles and automobiles from East Berlin to the major Russian and Ukranian cities. As for the protokol kultura amongst the populations, I found the Slavic, Magyar and Germanic masses to be fine people. They are, overall, better that most of those in our unofficial official Western City States. Much of what is held within the comments here is simply dezinformacja from those who have not been in regional libraries, broke bread amongst the ruling and proletariat segments of society.
The commentary about Poles wanting to recreate their sea-to-sea commonwealth borders on a mix of hate and ignorance. Never did I hear any Pole, from housewives to journalists, to parliamentarians seek any annexation of former Polish lands. Such commentary is childish and speaks volumes.
As for the issue of the Crimea peninsula and Donbass regions, facts are generally different from what is reported in the presstitude or on TelAvivza. The folks in Crimea wanted to be part of Mother Russia. The same applies for those in Donbass. Those masses speak Russian, not Ukrainian. BTW family members last year spent three months in the regions noted and they are not anti-Ukrainian. They ate and slept with those mentioned.
Saka, of course, is pro-Putin and it’s natural that he knocks Poles due to their having NATO troops. However, it’s childish to speak of Poles or Polonians wanting to regain lost lands. This is not to say that generally Saka does not have lots of decent material. Saka is a skilled individual. I enjoy his labour.
Just a few more words about the region. The Uke Banderas (neoNazis) attempting to regain the Crimea and fighting against Donbass, are living in the past. They are a detriment to peace, the region and EuroMan. In Saka’s present work we see simple hypothesizing. The fact is, the general uprising was due to disenchantment. It was about election fraud.
Saka is correct in noting that the situation is pertinent to Putin. If he were to incorporate Byelorussia his prestige would go skyhigh is it did during the Crimea adventure
I concur with what bronek wrote: the average Pole is not interested in regaining or controlling lands in the east. Unfortunately, this appears to be something that a few delusional people in the government dream about, likely influenced by US prodding to poke Russia. Yes, the people elected the current government and president, but that’s because the current leadership is against allowing Muslim refugees into the country and against the gender nonsense that prevails in the rest of Europe.
I also agree that the Saker provides excellent analysis on geopolitics in general and on events in Eastern Europe in particular.. My only quibbles are that I disagree about how much Russophobia Poles have (I have rarely heard anything bad said about Russia or Russians…much less than you would here from the average Westerner) and about how much influence the Catholic church plays in politics in Europe…it certainly played a bigger role 100 years ago and more, but the influence of the church has diminished to the point where it is now fighting to remain viable while under attack for its role in covering up priestly sex abuse and for its stand on homosexuality and abortion.
Boy plays with matches; Gets burned.
Lukashenko’s repeated flirtation with the West has finally delivered Belarus into the Union State. It’s only a matter of time and it is the Belarusian people who will be making the delivery. Lukashenko has done it to himself.
The gods have smiled upon Russia once again and have, once again, made a laughing stock of western buffoons and those who lean towards them.
This is the most delightful and amusing turn of events since Putin’s 2013 outwitting of the Scoundrel Obama over Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles.
Where’s my popcorn?
This is quite an impressive article and I totally agree with it
It’s quite a difficult situation for Russia and I think a big part of this trouble is created by ukrostan and Putin knows that
I’m really curious how Putin is going to resolve this
The West /NATO plan is to repeat the Ukraine scenario & submit Belarus into western vassalage status, further limiting russian influence.
If Russia loses Belarus then NATO will be next to russian borders. CIA NATO operatives will flood Russia planning their subversive tactics, funding NGOs, training & funding separatists & terrorists
While Russia is a capitalist state, it is not fully integrated into the new world order of neoliberalism. Some elements of USSR state still exist, mainly a superpower military and some state control of natural resources & economic system
While Russia of 2020 is a very weakened version of USSR of 1990, it is still a significant power.
Belarus will need to be saved from western hawks, & Russia will need to take further steps to increase sovereignty & protecting its economy
Cut Merkel’s Russian Gas off now! Watch BASF, BMW and Deutscher Bank collapse and the Euro collapse with them. Germany is in a very delicate economic position now , British money ti the EU cuts off from 31 December..The west is in full attack mode and only a massive economic retatilation from Moscow will make them stop. Do it now and don’t give them time to stockpile.
Belarus colour revolution is similar to Ukraine but also to Syria & Libya
1)
Libya had a socialist style economic system, it was shunned & embargoed by the West
But Libya was destroyed a few years after colonel Gaddafi opened up to the West. He signed agreements with French President Sarkozy, he made multibillion investment deals with Italy etc
Then a colour revolution took place (“arab spring”).
He seemed to survived but after NATO intervention (with Medvedev approval), he was overthrown & butchered by the so called “rebels”
Now Libya is economically devastated
, under a civil war, 1/3 under Turkish occupation, with warlords fighting
2)
Syria had a socialist style economy too
Then Bashar Al Assad tried to reform & liberalise the economy, he warmed up to the West
The rest is history but if Russia hadnt intervened, Syria would end up like Libya
———-
As for Belarus,
After 2 decades of following a neo Soviet policy and close relationship with Russia, Lukashenko is in serious trouble
It’s also suspicious that all these happened after he warmed up to the West.
A scenario similar to Ukraine is being played
The Libyan scenario cannot be played as NATO can’t intervene without russian approval
If Belarus didn’t have russian security agreements, then we would have the Libyan (or Serbia 1999) scenario of a NATO invasion
It’s a colour revolution
Like in Bolivia, Ukraine, Venezuela, Syria, Libya etc
Let’s hope that Belarus will remain an independent sovereign state
Submission to EU means the destruction of Belarus