It is often forgotten that what happened to Russia with the French Mistrals is very much a case of bad Karma coming back: just as Russia had already paid France for the Mistrals, so had Iran already paid Russia for the S-300 SAMs.  Both Russia and France reneged after the contracts were signed and finalized.  And just as France’s reputation will suffer from the Mistral fiasco, the Russian reputation will suffer from the S-300 fiasco.  There might be those who will say that Russia was only following UNSC Resolutions, but to them I will reply that Russia made a huge mistake by allowing such Resolutions to be adopted and, furthermore, that the UNSC Resolution did not cover systems such as the S-300.  The decision to renege on the Iranian contract was a unilateral Russian decision.

Everybody in the Kremlin is aware of that and this is why Lavrov and his counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif are likely to discuss this issue during their meeting today.  I sure hope that they finally come to an agreement.

First, Russia needs to remove that shameful stain on her reputation as a reliable partner.  There is no way the Iranians are going to forget what Russia did and nor should they.  True, this was a Medvedev decision, and the Iranians understand that, but still – the Kremlin needs to prove that times have changed and, even more so, that Russia has changed.

Second, with all the threats coming out of Congress, Iran critically needs the Russian SAMs.  Sure, the Iranians claim that they have developed a similar system (with Russian aid according to rumours), but the Iranian systems are untested and it is unclear how many of those they can produce.  Iran is a very big country with a lot of potentially lucrative targets for the USAF and USN to strike in saturation attacks.  Thus the quantity of high-end with overlapping engagement ranges is crucial to deter such an AngloZionist attack.

Third, now is the time for Russia to engage in some good PR and presenting a more trustworthy face to Iran.  The lifting of sanctions on Iran presents fantastic business opportunities for Russian companies which all will need to have this unpalatable and, frankly, embarrassing episode be put into the past.

С-400 small

S-400 “Triumf”

 

Finally, I will note that the S-300 are getting old and that both the US and Israel have gotten their hands on these systems which have no more secrets for them.  Russia should either sell Iran upgraded S-300s or jump the gap and sell them the new S-400s.  Not only would that make military sense, but it would be a very welcome gesture of apology from Russia to Iran – a tangible sign that a new era of cooperation as begun.

The Saker

UPDATE: good news – this from PressTV:

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan says the Islamic Republic is set to receive upgraded batteries of the S-300 missile defense system from Russia, saying the delivery will take place soon.

“All changes [that have been made] by the Russians over these years will be implemented on the S-300 system that is going to be delivered to Iran and we will receive the system soon,” Dehqan said in a briefing with reporters in Tehran on Tuesday.

The Iranian defense minister would not specify the exact time of the delivery, but said that a delegation of Iranian officials are set to travel to the Russian capital, Moscow, next week to sign a contract on the issue.

Vladimir Kozhin, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide on military and technical cooperation, said on July 30 that the Russian-built S-300 air defense system is to be modernized before being delivered to Iran, given the fact the original contract was struck a long time ago.

On April 13, Putin signed a presidential decree paving the way for the long-overdue delivery of the missile defense system to Iran.

The decision to deliver the missile system came after Iran and the P5+1 group of countries – the United States, France, Britain, China and Russia plus Germany – reached a mutual understanding on Tehran’s nuclear program in the Swiss city of Lausanne on April 2.

Moscow had banned the delivery of the S-300 system to Tehran in 2010 under the pretext that the agreement it signed with Iran in 2007 was covered by the fourth round of the UN Security Council sanctions against the country over its nuclear program. The resolution bars hi-tech weapons sales to the Islamic Republic.

Talks for Russian jets

Elsewhere in his remarks, Dehqan said Tehran is in talks with Moscow to buy new Russian fighter jets and ruled out reports on Iran’s potential purchase of military aircraft from France.

“In the field of fighter jets, we declared our requirements to the Russians and we have made no request in this field to France,” Dehqan said, adding that it is very “unlikely” for Iran to engage in military cooperation with France in the current situation.

Touching on Iran’s possible missile tests, the defense minister said that the Iranian military has already focused on boosting the accuracy of domestically-manufactured missiles.

Dehqan dismissed accusations that Iran had worked on missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. He said Iran’s missile program is solely defensive.

“We have never taken any measures aimed at using a nuclear weapon and no missile has been designed or produced in this regard,” he said, adding, “We have never examined nor implemented the technical details of nuclear warheads for our missiles.”