by Gavin Don
The Islamic State is not yet a state (imagine IS at the UN) but I was working yesterday on economic and oil forecasts for Iraq and Syria, and the thought struck me that although IS is not a state, its economy is larger than many actual states.
Consider. IS has sliced approximately 5 million Iraqis and probably another 5 million Syrians out of the economies of Iraq and Syria. In both cases the people living within the Islamic State work at the lower end of national GDP averages for Iraq and Syria, but nevertheless the “proto state” of IS probably has an average GDP per head of about $2,500. That means IS has a GDP of some $25bn, and has the same GDP per head as, for example, Indonesia.
Western media and politicians seem to see IS as a small group of lunatics living entirely on sales of stolen Syrian oil, transported through Turkey via black market buyers and distributors in Slovakia, Dubai, Karachi and a few other less reputable entrepots. This is a naïve and dangerous misinterpretation.
IS oil exports are probably running somewhere around 30 kbpd, with an average margin of perhaps $15 per barrel (even IS has to pay lifting costs and transport costs, and then sells its liquids very cheap). With those margins 30 kbpd would generate $200m of spendable cash – only 1% of the Islamic State’s total GDP. Ready money, sure, and easy to collect, but small.
If IS were a conventional middle eastern state with averagely bad administrative and tax collecting powers it would take perhaps 30% of GDP in tax. As a new administration with a lot of distractions, no administrative depth, and a somewhat discontented and rebellious population, it is likely that IS’ actual tax take is probably much lower. If IS is taxing its economy at half the expected rate it would have “government revenue” of $3.8bn.
On the spending side, IS government services are probably pretty rudimentary, leaving IS able to spend a third to a half of its revenue on defence – something like $1-2bn. Add in transfers from IS sponsors (who and how much not exactly clear), and IS might be spending $2.5bn on defence. With no expensive navy or air force, $2.5bn buys a lot of ground troops. Published sources suggest that an IS fighter is paid somewhere around $500 a month, and I have speculated before that IS might have 100,000 men on its payroll. If those numbers are correct then IS army payroll would total $600m per year – well within its likely defence budget, with the generous balance being spent on munitions, transport, training, communications, and food. When you look at the numbers, IS’ success and survival becomes less surprising.
So, what comes out of this thought is the conclusion that hitting IS’ oil production infrastructure is not quite the killer-blow that western media and governments say it is. Sure, IS would miss its oil money, and sure, export dollars are worth more to IS than domestically taxed Iraqi or Syrian currencies, and so the campaign to cut its oil flow is certainly a very good idea, but IS will not lie down and die simply because it can’t sell oil.
It will, when comes the End of Natoists’ Mass Hallucination.
As a muslim I find the picture very insulting, just so you all know the saying in arabic is not a Daesh logo but an islamic one, so better post pictures of daesh instead.
What does the Arabic script in the image say?
It says ‘There is not god but Allah and Mohamed is his prophet. This is the prayer each Moslem says. So absolutely, this picture does not represent IS.
I also think that you can not look at the so called IS as an independent entity. IS is practically representing three major powers in the Middle East, Turkey, Saudi and Qatar. Saudi and Qatar financing it and Turkey supporting it militarily. So with that in mind, of course it will not help to only bomb the oil tanks. But the Russian army in collaboration with the Syrian army, the Iranian and Lebanese forces will win the war on the ground against all these mercenaries. And Iran is committed to throw in as many ground forces as necessary to defeat IS (aka Turkey, Saudi, Qatar). No matter how rich the latter two states are, their resources are limited as well and having to fight two wars (Syria and Yemen) even Saudi is stretching its budget to the maximum. The falling oil price does not help either. I think we are witnessing the collapse of Saudi and complete isolation of Turkey.
My apologies for posting an imagine insulting to you. That was not my intention. Still, since Daesh claims that they are Muslims, they would also lay claim to the Shahada and say that it represents them. I agree that this is a fraud, but no more than when the Papists use the Cross. Besides, the Shahada in the picture is clearly posted with burning oil trucks, so the context is clear.
I will try avoid that kind of images in the future, but I would suggest that it is not as offensive as you make it sound.
Kind regards and peace,
The Saker
The thing is, Daesh or isis or whatever they call themselves, are using this logo to put islam down, so anyone who knows what the writing mean, should not follow Daesh footstep and use it. Instead one can make a picture with Daesh and not with those words. By using that logo one is demonizing islam as a whole and not Daesh.
It may be misunderstood out of context and therefore may be insulting.
Still, there is a painful truth that our culture needs to confront if we are ever to win the war against war.
The Patriarchal God is a war God, at least in part. The torched trucks make that show. Sky gods killed earth gardens and the women and children in them. Gods of all stripes have been white-washed but when the paint washes off we get the picture above.
I’ve been ordained a priest twice, in old and new age religions. There are good gods and good patriarchs but systemically it just won’t work in the long game. That’s why I advocate for changing the language and meta-story back to what it was before patriarchy re-wrote it. For example, go through all the bibles and texts: where we find the words God and Lord, cross them out and use Lover and Love. A culture of war is changed one word at a time.
The bible says “God is Love.” If that is really true, there should be no problem with dropping the term God and replacing it with Love. If that is not true, then it should be dropped.
Some say there are no accidents. If true, the image of burning oil trucks and a holy name of God has some purpose. I wouldn’t say that the whole patriarchal concept of God should go up in flames. That would be too blasphemous and sacrilegious to bear but bear in mind that love burns like fire. If God is really a lover, he’s not going to be so narcissistic as to demand worship that only love deserves.
I think its very useful to have some who can translate arabic to english. that certainly helps understand a wider picture.
thank you for doing that.
The air campaign is destroying more then oil: military is being hit too. But of course, ground forces are also needed.
Except for the protection and nationalist groups all the others must be killed…. Don’t matter what their ideology. US would have declared every single group on the list as terrorists and gassed them already. Heck they even call sex groupies as terrorists and shoot them.
Tony Blair Faith Foundation study on Syrian rebel groups Groups by ideology:
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/678949406511599620
Chart of groups by ideology
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/678949628411293696
IS wants women.. Like its good to be the king.. errr caliphate.. but who is it? Baghdadi? erdo? Obama? queen Elizabeth? nutyahoo’s night job? hillary?
Beauty queen crowned the first Miss Iraq since 1972 received a chilling phone call warning she would be abducted if she did not join ISIS, it has been claimed.
It is interesting that terror group want Iraqi beauty queen for what they called “Jihad of Marriage” (Nikah Jihad) or in fact sex slavery for its corrupted self-proclaimed caliphate Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1772245
Dennis is going to go ape and I dread even posting it but we need to know about it.. Suicide by cat… We already had the suicide by dolls.. People need to be careful off everything now. Suicide by balloons and condoms? Suicidal drones.. Even Russia got into it, rammed a drone onto an opportunistic target..
Next will be suicide by pigeons.. Lets spread that great idea to ISisland…
A Libyan Army EOD team in Benghazi dismantled a CBIED, a cat-borne improvised explosive device that is.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/679691993665146880
Hi. I try not to go ape at all but don’t always succeed.
I’m speechless trying to process this latest of war devices. It’s kind of blowing my circuits and messing with my connections. Who in their right mind is going to use a pet cat to be a suicide bomber?
I always thought war was crazy but this is taking it to a new level of insanity.
I need some time to sort this out. Are you sure this is for real? Maybe it’s a set-up for something else. I mean can you even conceive of a terrorist cat? There are dogs of war but cats of war? My brain just can’t compute it. Why wouldn’t a cat turn around and blow up its trainer? Can cats even be trained? It seems that they train their owners.
Well, I’ll have something to mull over on my walk past the dog and horse pets behind rails and fences while cats run free.
Wecome to the hyperreal.
Twitter says page does not exist — could be hoax. Better be for the terrorists since pissing off the cat consciousness collective is extremely bad karma. One should never hurt a species more advanced than oneself. I doubt it would be that efective anyway considering the way cats travel.
It was real, they taped explosive vest to the cat using duct tape so had a hard time removing it. It is just a terror weapon since cats go everywhere and you can not stop them. Not effective like humans but that was not the point, send a bunch of critters into the middle of markets and such and it will scare off people. Checkpoints and such wont stop them. Cats go the same places people go to buy food.. Prob pic got deleted because animal lovers complained..
But for a joke see this…
https://twitter.com/CTstudies/status/679740021398749184
The only way to stop war is to analyze its causes and apply a remedy that works. A ceasefire will only gain time to acquire more firepower.
The banner of this vineyard is “Stop the Empire’s War on Russia.” That will only happen when we learn how to stop war itself.
A popular slogan is: “Make love, not war.” When you’re naked and making love, it’s hard to be fighting with a gun. In fact, you make yourself most vulnerable to one who has a gun. Click to those mafia movies hitting the enemy in bed making love.
Nevertheless, it is true that love is the only cure for war. It starts in the mind, in a state of war. Meditating and going to religion has not stopped war and never will. War wants to be loved, not ignored.
So I love war, like coming here first this morning before firing up the wood stove and making my cup of grain coffee. But then I analyze the cause of war and apply the remedy.
I start with my mind. The mind is the best aphrodisiac even with war. In my mind I turn the Syrian waste-yard into a Sakerian vine-yard. It’s like a video game of lovers and killers, bones and thrones.
The mind is only the start. The whole wide world middle is the heart. The finish line is the starting line. If every step of thought is love, war is finished. “I didn’t think it could be done but I won the war after losing every battle.”
I meant to post this at the end but ended up in the middle with the cats. If I can love cats I can love anything. I’m allergic to pet-cats and petty-wars. They both have nine lives. I fear a catty war of nine tails. I love wild cats like tigers in time of war and peace. Domesticated cats are a bane to birds and bird-brains and need to go extinct themselves. Then, my friends, we’ll have a chance for genuine peace and true love.
As predicted by Uncle Bob earlier with regard to the wording of the UN resolution:
Amnesty says Russian bombing of Syria may be a war crime
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN0U61M520151223
/sometimes-pictures-say-it-all-serbia-and-syria/#comment-189466
Amnesty Int. is an extension of the US war machine.
Russian MoD response.
AI report is based on remote assessment, via phone calls and internet, using ‘activist’ sources (presumably Soros’ White Helmets). It also points out the the US does not disclose when, where and what it attacks. Basically the report has the same credibility as the reports attempting to blame Russia for the MH-17 shootdown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5tIrb4dR9k
Interesting too that the deliberate and lengthy US attack on the MSF hospital in Kunduz is not ‘a possible war crime’ only a deplorable loss that must be investigated, according to Amnesty.
I have yet to find a statement that Amnesty thinks the US attack was ‘a possible war crime’; a search using Amnesty’s own search feature on their website only brings up the Saudi attack on MSF in Yemen:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/10/afghanistan-bombing-of-kunduz-hospital-a-deplorable-loss-of-life-that-must-be-investigated/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/10/yemen-bombing-of-msf-hospital-may-amount-to-a-war-crime/
Amnesty International, US war crime friendly, and an important tool in the Hegemon’s quiver.
Amnesty International is just one of the tools of USG globalists: http://www.globalresearch.ca/amnesty-international-is-us-state-department-propaganda/32444
Who ever claimed that it would??
Air campaigns will never deliver a defeat as you have to occupy the ground. Only on the ground can you break up the apparatus of government and control.
There is no qualitative difference between Russian and American airstrikes (ISIS seems to think Russia is sloppier than the Americans) for the same reasons as Saker mentioned many times when speaking about the American air campaign during Balkans war. The Russian air force is in a fresh state, so there is a higher volume of attacks. The American air force, like the rest of the US military, is in the defeat process and has minimal effect on anything it attacks. Except apparently for hospitals and wedding parties.
The inability to tell effect on target, decoy usage, the inherent high cost of modern airs trikes; combined with a politicized military that follows a “mission accomplished” narrative for propaganda and job retention purposes — guarantees that air strikes are not enough. And then of course the same thing that got the Americans still applies: for every IS member killed, several more are produced as a result.
Russia appears to be attacking such infrastructure and will probably benefit its own oil industry, but cause long term damage to any oil extraction in the region. Any attempt by Russia to rebuild infrastructure will see a similar outcome to the American and British.
ISIS is organized like the Mexican drug cartels and general organized crime, and is perfectly capable of operating in a decentralized “plain clothes” capacity. Other income sources are derived from robbery, piracy, narco trafficking, human trafficking, etc. They initially had donations from international sources, but most of those sources have been caught.
They have minimal administrative costs (sharia law), a plausible promise (guaranteed shelter, food, clothes, etc) a creation myth (a hero fighting evil and degeneracy) narrative and other things the author has already listed (safety, military and social programs). They have proven capable to rapidly take and hold territory for some time with minimal force (Ramadi) and have hijacked infrastructure to their own advantage.
So Russia or any coalition can be launching ten times as many air strikes on IS and the best effect is IS will simply move to another area and “set up shop,” maybe in a different form. It is also possible for IS to retaliate against attacks in the Russian state itself. IS seems to enjoy making execution videos with a “similar punishment” theme. If this policy is still in effect, the more attacks Russia launches against IS oil infrastructure may only increase the chances of IS launching attacks against Russian energy markets. IS can afford to lose its stolen oil and hijacked infrastructure, but Russia cannot afford to lost its energy market. If such attacks did happen, Russia would have been better off not dropping one bomb.
@ Anonymous
Please give us a solution then if you think that nothing, nothing in your opinion, can stop the so called IS.
At the end of the day e regime based on Sharia and executions can not survive in the long run. People will get tired of this kind of terror and limitations to their lives. Even the most fanatic fighters will get tired and there will be internal fighting over the distribution of wealth and gains. The so called IS is not a viable state. Its more a Mafia kind of organisation that is based on fear and oppression. Of course they can continue terrorising the whole world. But what will be the end? If the world powers are committed to stop drug trafficking and weapons dealing the terror on a large scale can be stopped even if you can not stop few isolated maniacs from committing crimes.
Regimes with cruel and unusual punishment have gone on much longer than IS (Saudi Arabia). Modern nation states are too corrupt and broke to stop drugs and weapons, especially the Americans. The unpleasant reality is that regimes can rule by fear and oppression for quite some time, especially when there has been much fouler corruption (Iraqi regime vs Sunnis).
If ISIS is to be stopped there are two things that must be acknowledged: That the cost may be unaffordable. And, two, Saudi Arabia must be confronted before ISIS.
Its an error that terrorism can’t be defeated on the ground. The West has a poor track record on it but some other countries have been able to do it.The USSR and Poland did it in the 1940’s-1950’s. The Cubans in the 1960’s. The Russians in the 2000’s. Its hard and bloody work. But if you are willing to put in the effort it can be done. Considering that most of the terrorists in Syria aren’t Syrians. It would be easier. They don’t have the roots in the country as the home grown terrorists do. But again,while hard work,even for them it can be done.
India has done it multiple times, only areas with terrorists now are jungle. With foliage penetrating drones coming, they will also wipe out in few years..
Your comments raise a number of good points. However, there seems to be an assumption that ISIS is not an indigenous uprising of the Syrian population. Something much closer to the truth is that ISIS is an invasion of foreign fighters financed and supported by foreign elements.
When a Russian air strike kills an ISIS terrorist, three things happen; there is one less terrorist in Syria, the locals feel a little less threatened and ISIS needs to import a replacement. True, there is likely some local recruiting but most information suggests ISIS is largely foreign to Syria.
As an invading force, ISIS can be defeated by a combination of superior military power and a population that believes victory is possible. With Russia’s military involvement, both factors are present in Syria,
ISIS makeup is similar to insurgency during the American OIF. Core contingent of the resistance was mostly Iraqi. They were the “guerillas” who were ensuring victory in the long run. Then there was a contingent of foreign fighters who were “martyrs,” and were there due to ideological persuasion and served as battle fodder.
So too is it today that IS core is mostly Iraqi and Syrian, some even former Baath regime. Many of the front line fighters are foreign. “Foreign invasion” meme is only partially true.
ISIS relies and embraces self-activating jihadis, who are able to plot, acquire weapons, and attack on their own with no oversight. This is in contrast to nation states who only accept formal recruitment into a military or police institution, and shun anyone who “takes matters into their own hands.” Until this is understood, attempts to understand their recruitment process will be incomplete.
So when one of them is killed, ISIS has ways of encouraging recruitment using propaganda. They often times have a “martyr” obituary that is designed to encourage self activating attacks to those who read about it.
Most of ISIS foreign attacks have been done through self-activation. Even though the attacks themselves are not very damaging, the reaction they provoke has been very damaging. Still not damaging enough to be an existential threat, but they have scared people into thinking just that. ISIS will only become an existential threat when it copies Nigeria’s MEND type attack — launching coordinated assaults on industrial infrastructure for scorched earth purposes.
silly anonymous post
russian airstrikes sloppy ‘according to isis’ ? what kind of BS is this ? ISIS have been operating with impunity under the incompentent US-led air coalition , they never expect to be bombed by US air power because they knew the presence of US air power is to deter syrian airforce , not to destroy them..
the capabiity of US air power is not in question here , it is their leader’s motivation that’s in question… the numerous stories about US / coalition pilot who have to wait for hours just to bomb an ISIS convoy directly below them , only to be told to spare the convoy … the hypocrisy of allowing thousands of tanker trucks stealing syrian oil to turkey , with justification that it might hurt ‘civilians’…
your post are filled with veiled jab toward russia , a common trait for russophobic anti-russia troll..
i understand now why you use anonymous to post , because you are nothing but a troll trying to put MSM narrative in this blog’s commentary section.
Anyone can read about what IS thinks. They have actual propaganda magazines. I suppose you’re not interested in knowing your enemy.
US is notorious for “stab in the back” political games, and are always blaming someone else for their failures. There have been plenty of instances of American commanders having their troops stand down over “legitimate” targets. Their commanders’ motivations are usually indecision, politics, and looking bad in front of their peers if something goes wrong.
If there is any reason for Americans to avoid attacking oil infrastructure it is because of the fear of provoking a scorched earth attack in the same manner as Saddam destroying Iraqi oil fields during gulf war. Americans in recent years generally make best efforts to take energy infrastructure intact (except maybe electrical), so they can steal it from the target nation. Russia does not have to worry about this, since their domestic oil production is doing quite well, and may even profit from keeping Iraqi oil off market. Americans have no oil and must steal from someone else.
Russia is following a “mission accomplished” narrative for morale and job retention purposes and is not wise to believe anything anyone says (deception). Right now it seems they are in the “highway of death” phase with convoy attacks, similar to the American gulf war.
“There is no qualitative difference between Russian and American airstrikes (ISIS seems to think Russia is sloppier than the Americans) for the same reasons as Saker mentioned many times when speaking about the American air campaign during Balkans war.”
Uh … Except for the fact that America was never serious about bombing ISIS in the first place, given that these Islamc jihadists are trained, financed, armed, protected, and supported by the United States or allied state sponsors of terrorism like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, Jordan, etc.
American perception manipulators are busy little beavers.
Nice try but no cigar.
Mccains terrorists with TOW missiles’s took parts of DeirEzzor… Bad news… Russian air strikes did not help..
IslamicState carried out 4 attacks with vehicle bombs on regime positions in DeirEzzor city- heavy street clashes since morning
DeirEzzor: Islamic State (#IS) say they took full control of Al-Sinaa (Industrial) neighborhood after fierce assault inc 3 VBIED.
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/679853669249118208
Video from some #Russian #Russia Crew with #SAA #NDF
https://t.co/Sm3Zxp8I6b
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxJ_Cbsd1AY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxW7Gruw0ZE
Also the US military has now been exposed for providing information support to Syrian regime (Hersh), and to Russia by extension. One possibility is that Russia has applied information from OPM and joint chiefs hacks to effectively commandeer portions of the US military, even to the point of where the US politicians have no control.
Either way, though, it does provide credit to the ISIS narrative of ISIS vs the world, and may strengthen its sympathizer and active member count.
It is not accurate to consider ISIS oil as its property. Russia is bombing Iraqi and Syrian infrastructure (much of which was built with American equipment) and energy networks that are currently hijacked by IS. Russia’s own corporate energy sector will likely benefit from such attacks.
Murad Gazdiev reports….
Trenches like these snake through #jobar, offering safety from snipers. Notice the firing holes. #damascus #syria
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679819540608479233
Our trip to #Jobar; the closest battleground to #damascus. What’s left of it is a tunnel-ridden wasteland #syria
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679673162271973377
For Islamist Rebels – #Jobar is the ‘key to the #Damascus’. Reminded me of an atomic bomb test site #syria
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679687542636163073
A little more of what we shot with our drone over #Jobar.
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679728423841968128
Not a lot left of #jobar. Nevertheless, it has strategic value. It is from here that rebels shell #damascus
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679784743840432128
jobar in panorama. Bear in mind that just a mile away – life continues as normal in #damascus, #syria
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679785590628433920
#jobar almost entirely deserted, but for a number of diehard families. Militants here massively outnumber civilians
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679786368265023489
Miles and miles of tunnels, reaching 30 meter depths, criss-criss #jobar. Rebels use them for supplies, offensives
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679789192256319492
Many buildings in #jobar change hands regularly. Hence – multiple layers of offensive graffiti. Here: a “jihadist”
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679816841351532544
saa has dug a series of massive trenches around #jobar to prevent rebels from digging their way into #damascus.
https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/679815830666919936
Roman Saponkov #Russian #Russia Reporter in Syria Back in November with #SAA #NDF
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/679853669249118208
Cool Video from some #Russian #Russia Crew with #SAA #NDF
https://t.co/qAhhHeNAMm
News Crew with #SyAAF #SyrianArabAirForce #SyrianAirForce flying
https://t.co/wQremwhGhC
Federal News Agency with #SAA #NDF @ Deir Ez Zor.
https://t.co/w44I8yI658
Another Video of #Russian #Russia Federal News Agency with #SAA #NDF @ Deir Ez Zor –
https://t.co/Sm3Zxp8I6b
RuAF airstrike on Jihadist training camp in #Idlib Elimination of an ISIS training camp (Idlib province)
https://t.co/49BhHzxEq5
RuAF airstrike on a fuel tanker column in #Aleppo
https://t.co/2GDtT5k6yc
Photo from #Hmeymim airbase.#Latakia Pantsir-S1 (Панцирь-С1)
https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/679742091107385344
RuAF Airstrike on an ISIS/Daesh column of oil tanker trucks (Aleppo province).
https://t.co/RYxDO5E5mr
PHOTO: Jabal al-Nuba under #SAA/#NDF artillery before Re-gaining the mountain. #Latakia
https://twitter.com/2Rook14/status/679677829198573569
Russian Def. Minister S.Shoigu: Russia free has handed over an S-300 air defense system to Kazakhstan for joint regional air defense system
ISIS using a BGM-71 TOW #ATGM in Aleppo area
https://twitter.com/Ald_Aba/status/679704899949588481
This is where @UOSSM medical aid ends up. Not for civilians but for militants in Khan Tuman, Southern #Aleppo
https://twitter.com/Ald_Aba/status/679730185940414465
MY thoughts exactly…
Imagine if the American people elected a president who was much worse than George W. Bush or Barack Obama. A real tyrant. Would that be sufficient justification for someone like Vladimir Putin to arm and train Mexican and Canadian mercenaries to invade America, kill US civilians, destroy cities and critical infrastructure, seize vital oil refineries and pipeline corridors, behead government officials and prisoners they’d captured, declare their own independent state, and do everything in their power to overthrow the elected-government in Washington?
Of course not. The question is ridiculous. It wouldn’t matter if the US president was a tyrant or not, that doesn’t justify an invasion by armed proxies from another country. And yet, this is precisely the policy that US Secretary of State John Kerry defended at the United Nations on Friday. Behind all the political blabber about a “roadmap to peace”, Kerry was tacitly defending a policy which has led to the deaths of 250,000 Syrians and the destruction of the country.
And, keep in mind, Kerry didn’t drag his case before the UN Security Council because he’s serious about a negotiated settlement or peace. That’s baloney. What Kerry wants is a resolution that will protect the groups of US-backed jihadis on the ground from the Russian-led offensive. That’s what’s really going on. The Obama administration sees the handwriting on the wall. They know that Russia is going to win the war, so they’ve settled on a plan for protecting their agents in the field. That’s why the emphasis is on a ceasefire; it’s because Kerry wants a “Timeout” so his Sunni militants can either regroup or retreat. Just take a look at this short excerpt from the UN’s summary of last Friday’s confab and you’ll see Kerry’s really up-to:
Ceasefire, ceasefire, ceasefire. It’s all about a ceasefire. Kerry wants a ceasefire. Obama wants a ceasefire. A big part of the ruling US establishment want a ceasefire.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/23/putins-progress-in-syria-sends-kerry-scampering-to-the-united-nations/
heh that cartoon about all these putz yelling Russia stop bombing says it all.. Too bad nukes cant be used just yet..
“Imagine if the American people elected a president who was much worse than George W. Bush or Barack Obama. A real tyrant. Would that be sufficient justification for someone like Vladimir Putin to arm and train Mexican and Canadian mercenaries to invade America, kill US civilians, destroy cities and critical infrastructure, seize vital oil refineries and pipeline corridors, behead government officials and prisoners they’d captured, declare their own independent state, and do everything in their power to overthrow the elected-government in Washington?”
Actually if you look at certain poll numbers and approval ratings for the American government, your imaginary event might get surprising support. Not too long ago there was a poll that suggested that Americans have a more favorable opinion of Gengis Khan and bed bugs than the current regime.
The overall GDP sounds a lot at first sight, until you factor in that weapons and a lot of other stuff must be bought from foreign countries. Hence, the attack budget for IS is dominated by export revenues and donations to cover the imports.
The State of the Syrian Economy: An Expert Survey
At the end of 2014, 82 percent of Syrian people lived in poverty, while 2.96 million people had lost their jobs because of the war. Unemployment surged to 58 percent, according to the [Syrian Center for Policy Research] SCPR. Separately, the SCPR’s 2013 report “estimated that sanctions contributed to an increase of the poor in Syria by 877 thousand persons” and a rise in the prices of oil derivatives by around 200 percent. [ . . . ] Vegetable production in Hama has dropped by 60 percent because of the conflict, while olive oil production in Daraa has plummeted by 40 percent. Likewise, nationwide wheat production plunged from 4 million tons a year to around 2 million tons in 2013.
http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/12/15/war-economy-in-syrian-conflict-government-s-hands-off-tactics/in4t
Butter: How Can Syrian Cities Still Have Power?
Syria’s energy supply has been greatly affected by the war. The country suffers from a lack of electricity and frequent blackouts. Most of the population still relies on the pre-war power grid although in many areas, particularly those outside regime or Islamic State control, Syrians have to resort to diesel generators for electricity supplies. Control over interlinked power stations and oil and gas fields has become divided between the government and various insurgent groups. In many places, otherwise hostile factions therefore quietly cooperate across the battle lines to keep the system running or for economic gain.
In late 2015, Syria’s power stations generated between 1,500 MW and 1,800 MW, according to a statement in parliament in early December by Imad Khamis, the electricity minister. This represents less than 20 percent of the country’s installed capacity of almost 10,000 MW in 2011.
While bread provision helped the Islamic State gain a foothold in towns and villages previously held by other rebel groups, the American and Russian aerial campaigns have undermined the organization’s revenue streams and its welfare infrastructure in Syria. In early 2015, the Islamic State raised the price of bread to more than three times its cost prior to its takeover of Raqqa, from 4 SYP for a single loaf to 12.5 SYP. The group’s failures in public service have triggered a growing reliance on force to maintain control over local communities.
Fundamentally, the Syrian economy suffers from several curses: the destruction of the country’s physical infrastructure and productive capacity; the outflow of financial and human capital; the fragmentation of the territory and the disruption of trade and other business networks; the collapse of state institutions and services in areas outside regime control; and Western sanctions.
One positive aspect for the government has been its capacity, despite low fiscal revenues, to pay salaries and maintain the functioning of basic services. This was due to the implementation of new taxes, the reduction of subsidies on essential goods such as heating oil and bread, and aid from its allies.
This has been, however, at the expense of the population, an overwhelming number of which now live under the poverty line. The attacks by the international coalition on Islamic State-controlled oil fields are already making matters worse: electricity blackouts and shortages of oil products in the market have increased, which will only push inflation higher in the coming weeks.
Year 2016 will see Syrians poorer, living a more miserable life, and emigrating in higher numbers.
http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62347
Have said this several times, the only way to destroy ISIS and all the other jihadi scum is to destroy America, they are one and the same.
Amen to that! Should have happened ages ago.
Cut off ISIS’s funding from saudi and qatar , persecute and saction saudi and qatar for supporting ISIS , kick Turkey out of NATO temporarily as long as they supported ISIS , start regime change in Turkey and Saudi.. persecute america and israel for providing weapons and training to topple sovereign government of Syria , because they are engaging in illegal activities by supporting armed insurgency in a sovereign nation..
ISIS without it’s benefactors are nothing but a bunch of rabble..
would be nice if the so called nation of democracy and liberty from sea and shining sea started to behave according to the international law..
but it would be fantasy right ?
The air campaign will succeed when it expands to include Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha.
WTF? Do you think IS “workers” are playing their own lives to get currency of Iraq or Syria? So, let’s come back to the starting point: do you really think “that hitting IS’ oil production (and the dollars flow – EN) infrastructure is not quite the killer-blow that western media and governments say it is”?
IS became huge because US allowed them to do so. IS is the new “bogeyman” and has the same role as that of “Al Qaeda” in early 2000s. Every real or false flag terrorist attack is blamed on ISIS. It is not clear what are the origins, ideology and intentions of this group. Some analysts even say that
ex-Baathists military officials participate in this group.
US elites use IS so as to weaken Assad. With the emergence of IS, the Baathist Syria lost many territories and a new front opened that consumed valuable government resources and manpower.
If IS managed to topple Assad, the US would have a pretext to invade Syria and “liberate” it from ISIS Their mission would have accomplished and they would have installed their neoliberal puppets. Syria would have forcibly integrated as a puppet regime into the NWO of Neoliberal Globalization.
Besides ISIS, the true problem are the islamist so called “moderate rebels” of FSA and Al Qaeda that get support, huge funds and weapons from US/Turkey/Gulf States. Russia mainly bombs these “moderate rebels” and on occasion the IS.
The Trans-national neoliberal elites targeted Syria (as well as Libya, Iraq etc) not only because of their vast mineral wealth, but mainly because these regimes were soviet-aligned anti-colonial socialistic-nationalist regimes that survived the end of the Cold War. Syria had a mainly central planned state owned economy with a nationalised petroleum industry.
If the Baath regime collapses, then Syria will have the fate of Libya and Iraq. The country will split in several weak territories ruled by warlords and its mineral resources will get privatised and owned by Multinational Corporations.
IS is not difficult to eradicate.. fallujah and Grozny is testament to that.. What people might not know is, the US allowed the foreign terrorists based in fallujah to leave before their assault and only like 3000 locals were left who were all mostly killed at a cost of like 200 lives.. None of the Chechen’s stayed around for the slaughter.. And in Grozny it was also like 5000 or so terrorists that destroyed the city.. Now imagine a bunch of 100,000 of these guys in a population of 20 million.. Would mean 2-5 million dead Syrians if the US invades to get rid of this bunch..
What economy does Daesh have apart from the oil? What are the factories, services or whatever? It strikes me that Daesh probably does not have much of a non-oil economy besides
agriculture and ancillary production and services. Maybe some primitive arms production and servicing. Daesh needs huge amounts of foreign exchange to finance its military operations.
Agricultural exports are probably close to nil. The money must come from the oil, in which case
hitting it makes a lot of sense, or it comes from state or non-state donors.
‘Islamic State’ – that is two lies in two words. There is nothing Islamic about this poorly camouflaged CIA project, nor will it ever be a State.
Trucking oil in thousand of tankers over hundred of kilometers is not exactly the killer business, like everybody seems to believe these days. It is more of a joke, like everything we have heard about ISIS.
Daesh is not financed by stealing and smuggling oil. Military operations of this magnitude are exceedingly costly – the CIA pumps billion after billion, months for months into its pet project – just to keep the boat from sinking.
What a pathetic clown show!
Is there any details about this subject in different languages?
http://www.aracbuzdolabi.net