Every passing day bring it share of utterly nonsensical news out of the rump-Ukraine aka “Banderastan”. Today is not exception, see for yourself this headlines from the BBC’s website:
Sure enough, for the zombified TV watchers this might sound like something meaningful. But is it? Let’s recall where the current Ukrainian military comes form by remembering what the Ukraine’s military was at the moment this Soviet Republic became independent.
I have long destroyed my old archives and I simply did not want to scout the Internet for hours to find out what the Ukraine had inherited from the USSR. I knew that the Ukies had inherited what was called the “2nd strategic echelon” which translates into “not the newest weapons systems, but a lot of them”. And today, I suddenly came across an interesting article in the Russian press which gave me exactly what I wanted: a description of what the armed forces of the independent Ukraine began with. As it turns out, the Ukraine had:
700,000 servicemen
14 motorized rifle divisions.
4 tank divisions
3 artillery divisions
8 artillery brigades
4 Spetsnaz brigades
2 airborne brigade
7 attack helicopters regiments
3 air armies (about 1100 combat aircraft)
1 independent Air Defense Army
Not bad eh?
Today there are all sorts of figures thrown around about how big the Ukrainian military is, anywhere from several tens of thousands to a few hundred. It really all depends on what you count and how you count. We should stay clear from this kind of bean count and simply state the Ukrainian military is both unwilling and/or unable to crush a rebellion composed only of a few hundred armed men backed by a few thousand unarmed civilians (I am talking about the folks actually manning barricades and occupying buildings, not about sympathizers). In other words, the pro-Russian insurgency in the eastern Ukraine could be defeated with just one battalion of airborne troops. And yet, the regime cannot even muster that much.
Why?
There are two reasons. The first one is that there is a stream of consistent and mutually corroborating reports on the Runet (Russian Internet) which says that the pro-Russian insurgents and the Ukrainian servicemen simply do not want to shoot at each other, even when given the order to do so. Furthermore, they appear to be in regular contact with each other and there is an informal understanding that neither side will fire at the other.
The other reason is, of course, 22 years of “democracy”. Keep in mind that only 9 years of democracy almost destroyed Russia which by 1998-9 was pretty close to a total collapse. Several factors contributed to avoid this outcome, first and foremost the nomination of Putin, but Russia came very, very close to simply disappearing as a unitary state. If democracy could do that to a giant like Russia in only 8-9 years, one can only imagine what it could do to a much smaller and weaker Ukraine over 22 years.
Keep in mind that if the military was simply neglected and abandoned, then the rest of the economy pro-actively pillaged by the oligarchs. Think Berezovsky, think Khodorkovsky, then multiply them by 10 or 20 and increase their period of malfeasance from 9 years to 22 years and it is outright amazing that there still is a little something left of the Ukrainian economy in 2014. True, most of that is located in the East and was kept on life support by Russian money. Still, I have to say that while I am most definitely not an admirer of the Soviet system, the fact that it took so long to truly obliterate the Ukraine is a testimony to the resilience and what I would call a “capital of momentum” left by the Soviet Union to its successor states. Even Russia survived the absolute horror of the 1990s only thanks to all the “momentum” it inherited from the USSR.
No wonder that so many people today are becoming nostalgic of the Soviet era – by a strange self-protection mechanism the human being remembers the good much better than the bad (anybody who has gone through bootcamp will attest to that). And it is undeniable that compared to the empty promises, and actual horrors, of democracy the Soviet system was much, much better.
What is clear now is that the Ukraine has eventually wasted all of what it had been given by the Soviet Union. There is no more momentum left. The Ukraine is at a full stop, and it is rapidly disintegrating.
So what about this idea of return to a conscript military?
It is, to put it mildly, of truly breathtaking stupidity. There is no other way of putting it.
First, and this might sound paradoxical, the Ukraine simply does not need a military at all, if only because it cannot afford one. In fact, a country is MUCH safer not having a military than having a useless one because the latter can always be used to justify an attack whereas a country without a military is extremely hard to attack, at least in political terms.
Then, it takes decades and huge sums of money to (re-)built a military. The Ukraine simply cannot afford that at all, so why bother?
Also, the military is not the correct tool to use to put down insurgents, not the Russian speakers in the East, not the Banderists in the West. That is a mission for Internal Troops which have a totally different training and equipment than the regular military. In other words, what the Ukraine needs first and foremost today are forces like the Berkut which the junta has destroyed.
Then consider the economy. How wise is it to pull out of the economy a large segment of young men precisely when they could be the most dynamic and productive? And for how long to do pull them out? It takes 4-6 months to train a solider. Then, a typical term of service would be no less than 6-12 months depending on your system. In other words, at the very least a young conscript would leave home and be pulled out of the market and the economy for a full year. Without a well-oiled system and legal framework this can be catastrophic.
Besides, what does a large, under-paid, under-fed, and under-trained force become? Slave labor for the generals. They can be used to make roads and build mansions, but as a combat force their value is zero.
Furthermore, what does a conscription look like in a country which is breaking apart? It looks like a free distribution of firearms.
Last but not least – Turchinov and Iatseniuk are kidding themselves: a bigger Ukrainian army by no means implies a less pro-Russian one. What is the point of creating a conscript army if all it does is increase the numbers of servicemen changing sides and helping the Russian-speakers? Did I mention that the biggest population centers are, of course, also in the East?
To put it bluntly: to propose to return to a conscript army for the Ukraine is nothing short of absolute and total lunacy. I can only wonder which crazies in the West gave Turchinov and Iatseniuk this crazy idea. McCain? Hillary? Kerry?
The good news is that this kind of lunacy shows that the leaders of the junta in power have completely lost any sense of reality and that every single measure they officially announce with great pomp and earnestness only makes their situation worse.
If this insanity continues at the same pace the end of Banderastan might be very near.
The Saker
See: DOCUMENT: BATTLEGROUND UKRAINE @ wikispooks.com
Dear The Saker,
It looks like things have taken a worrying turn with the USG & Junta using drugs on soldiers in Ukraine:
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_02/Ukrainian-military-may-be-storming-Slavyansk-under-drugs-activists-6719/
We’ve seen this before and it doesn’t bode well:(
Rgds,
Veritas
Blackwater/Academi was purchased by Monsanto and is backed by Soros, Buffet and Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. According to voltairenet.org. Monsanto is established at Ukraine. Search MONSANTO UKRAINE
Dear Saker
On forum.hr people are voting
Do you support
1) Pro NATO/EU Ukraine
or
2) Pro Russian Ukraine
At this point of time
The first option has won 25% votes
and the second option 75% votes.
From this voting it is obvious that the Croatian population support Russia.
It does not help that the Croats are member or occupied by NATO/EU and American vassal.
Here is link on the voting
http://www.forum.hr/showthread.php?t=821979&page=362
May God bless multipolar world.
.
~1:50 UTC
https://twitter.com/spainbuca
Fighting in Kiev among maidan extremists after the new failure of anti-terrorist operation organized by the extremist minister of the interior
it is beginning to be confirmed, and I am very surprised, that casualties among the attackers are from friendly fire
Timoshenko’s delirium…
After this, if there still remain people who defend the maidan, they simply don’t know what they are talking about.
Of the 5 fighters in the air, 4 have landed, one remains flying and is armed.
quote @Mulga Mumblebrain said…01 May, 2014 23:15
“Which is why brainwashing sewers like the odious ‘The Guardian’ are screeching that RT must bend snowden banned, t
The Guardian is a Jewish-supremacist rag, owned and run by fanatical zionist Jews”
not really/ the gurdian is never pro jewish. itis anglosaxon propaganda machinaery which shoudl havce ben killked long time ago-only stupid assange and snowden fgoolishly ressurected that evil english paper.
all english journalists msut be treated as war criminals and killed on the spot as enemy agents as they have made it possible for millions to be killed in iraq, afgansitan libya and syria.
Hi Saker,
Long time listener, first time caller here ;)….
IMHO the call for conscription was little more than an attempt by the Junta to reassure the filth of the IMF that order will be restored in the east as per the IMF demands.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/imf-warns-ukraine-fight-east-or-no-money
However I would like to bring to your attention a very improtant lecture by Andrei Fursov, Director of Russian Studies Moscow University.https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Document:Battleground_Ukraine
I do not agree with him entierly (not being a statist myself) but his analysis is, I think, invaluable to excplain The Russian perspective on events. Would love to hear your opinion on this lecture.
@anonimous 14:29
how is breaking of street signs in Cyrillic alphabet going on in your Croatia that “supports Russia”? :)
@everybody
This is the direct result of the Geneva plan: to give enough time to the zionazi hunta in Kiev to reorganize & stop the momentum of the civilian uprising which sscared them so much — even Odessa was up!
Sorry to be proven right with my predictions.
Several things seem, and have seemed, obvious to me: First: (a) The oligarchs–Kolomoyski chief among them– who call the shots have by no means given up. If the conscipt/contract units won’t move they intend to hire/find people who will. (b)Any Russian hesitancy or pullback is interpreted by the Americans as weakness. The Americans are telling Kiev that Putin is bluffing and urging Turdynov, et al to “Face him down.”
(c) The Ukrainian army commanders, who hold much of the future in their hands, want–like all generals– to go with winners. Here again, any sign of Russian indecision, hesitancy, turns them off.
A move open to Russia, short of violence but still forceful, would be the movement of major units, like the 6th Armored and the 106 airborne at Tula as close to Kiev as possible–preferably if Lukashenko would provide political cover, in Belarus on the border, just west of the river, a few hours from Kiev. This would scare hell out the gang in Kiev and probably bring activity in the East to a halt. My sense that Putin–granted that the current situation has brought a major rift between Ccntinental Europe and the ‘Anglosphere’–must do something dramatic.
hey grunt- how many women and kids did you kill in “eye-rack”??
The West is calculating that Russia has more to gain by letting the Ukraine split apart in civil war rather than using overt military force. This may be hubris and Russia may decide that her partnerships with the Europeans are worth military escalation in the Ukraine. I also think the scenario is war gamed such that each rung of escalation is calculated to draw Russia into a war in the Ukraine. The prize to be gained from collapsing Russia is too great a temptation. My concern is battlefield nuclear weapons use in Ukraine. Insane but part of both Russian military doctrine and of course if NATO is involved and starts to lose, their doctrine also. The gradual escalation of war from the eyes of the West is a good way to pin Russia into a lose lose situation. All the masters of war can wish for is found in a limited war in the Ukraine. I think that irrational military measures and reckless hubris will in fact bring about catastrophe. This agenda helps prop up the house of cards.
14:02 GMT, “Moscow has called the United Nations Security Council for an emergency session on Friday over the Ukrainian army’s “punitive” operation in the eastern town of Slavyansk, Russia’s press attaché in the UN told RIA Novosti.’ from http://rt.com/news/eastern-ukraine-army-operation-680/ And Ukraine did sign onto the ICC so the efforts to bring it there might be even more successful than dealing with the US lackeys at the UN.
It would be funny, if there weren’t human suffering involved, to watch the saga of The Emperor’s New Clothes unfold online for all the world to see. I remember Vietnam ruining my dinner every night, and then they wised up and got “embedded” reporters to simply spew the party line, but look how far we’ve come now — and pray TPTB can’t gain control of the Internet.
Rowan Berkeley 12:06
What you said about these ‘Murkin trolls really makes sense, at least considering who we’re dealing with. I was just puzzling this morning whether it was just ordinary American stupidity (you know, guys in the 101st Chairborne Division, aka chickens rooting for Colonel Sanders), or if they were actually being paid to do this by people even more stupid than they are. I mean, really, what on earth do they hope to accomplish, other than making bigger fools of themselves? It’s just all so half-arsed. Disinformation *can* be done well (our media’s been doing it for years), but this stuff sure isn’t. However, the main take-away is still the same: Don’t Feed The Trolls, it just goes to their hips.
Just read the latest in SPIEGELonline about the joint press conference of Obama and Madame Merkel.
They say that there will be more sanctions if Putin doesn’t stabilise the situation in the Ukraine.
You couldn’t make it up: Putin is sanctioned because of alleged interference int he Ukraine, and will get more sanctions if he doesn’t interfere …
Meanwhile the MSM don’t mention with one word that the IMF threatened to withdraw their money if Kiev didn’t sort out the East Ukraine – but let’s not talk about money, that’s so not the done thing!
Q: I would love to be a fly on the wall…
R: SPLASH!
“Taken care of the vermin, boss.”
Q: You idiot … that was our fly … now we have no idea what Merkel and Obama are conspiring to do.
R: Sorry boss!
WASHINGTON The effort to remake the intelligence relationship between the United States and Germany … has collapsed, according to German officials, who say there will be no broad intelligence sharing or no-spy agreement between the two countries when Ms. Merkel arrives at the White House on Friday. …
For a number of months, German officials said the chancellor could not visit Washington until there was a resolution, including what they called a “restoration of trust” between the allies.
[And just to be clear on US policy]
“They pulled the plug”, another official said. “What the Germans want, and wanted, is that we would never do anything against their laws on their territory.” That is an agreement the United States “has with no country,” the official said.
Any monitoring from German soil – including from the United States Embassy – would constitute a violation of German law. …
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/world/europe/us-and-germany-fail-to-reach-a-deal-on-spying.html?hp&_r=0
At joint press conference there wasn’t much new but there’s this:
President Obama told reporters that the West was unlikely to end its business dealings with Moscow in the energy sector, but said that other areas of the Russian economy were vulnerable to EU-US sanctions.
“The idea that you’re going to turn off the tap on all Russian oil and gas exports, I think is unrealistic,” the president said. “But there are a range of approaches that can be taken not only in energy sector, but in the arms sector, the finance sector, and lines of credit for trade, all of which have significant impact on Russia.”
http://www.dw.de/merkel-meets-obama-in-washington-amid-violence-in-ukraine/a-17608651
Brian
Veterans Today: Breaking Nuclear Alert
this is how the euromaidan crowd treat the injured (contrast with how the injusted ukrainian pilot was treated by people in slavyonsk)
Retweeted 108 times
Nina Byzantina @NinaByzantina 14h
Right Sector makes burn victims in #Odessa crawl down a “corridor of shame” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfqoWVwmP2Q … A bloody end to #UnitedforUkraine.
Andrey Davydov @FarEasterner · 2h
Yesterday Maidanites severely beat local legislators who tried to stop mayhem. One of them Mr Markin just died http://v-odesse.net/%d0%b2-%d0%be%d0%b4%d0%b5%d1%81%d1%81%d0%b5-%d0%b2-%d0%b3%d0%be%d1%81%d0%bf%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b5-%d1%83%d0%bc%d0%b5%d1%80-%d0%b4%d0%b5%d0%bf%d1%83%d1%82%d0%b0%d1%82-%d0%be%d0%b1%d0%bb%d1%81/ …
———————-
no surprise the US supports murderers…for EU tho its embarrassing
Nina Byzantina @NinaByzantina 6h
#Odessa police denies there being Russian citizens among the dead—bodies yet to be IDed http://vesti.ua/odessa/50224-milicija-oprovergla-sluhi-o-pogibshih-v-odesse-grazhdanah-rf … via @dimitri_matveev #Ukraine
(alleged reports of russian passports)