Top Novorussian officials from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (Zakharchenko, Deinego and Pushilin) have held a joint press conference and officially announced that they had taken the unilateral decision to withdraw by no less than 3km from the line of contact all their weapons up to a 100mm caliber (weapons of a heavier caliber were supposed to have already been withdrawn according to the Minsk-2 Agreement (M2A); the Novorussians complied, the junta in Kiev did not). Before that, the Novorussians had already done a similar unilateral action by withdrawing all their forces by over 1km from the town of Shirokino. Predictably, the Ukronazis did not follow suit and stayed on their positions (but did not dare enter Shirokino either, at least as far as I know).
Novorussian withdrawal from Shirokino
This time around, the Ukronazis greeted the new “gesture of goodwill” of the Novorussians with an unprecedented barrage of artillery fire on the city of Donestsk which, again, was shelled all night long.
So what is going on here? Have the Novorussians suddenly gone crazy?
Far from it.
In fact, they have set a very elegant trap for Poroshenko and his western backers. Here is how it works.
Political level:
On a political level the Novorussians are bending over backwards to prove to anybody willing to listen that they are truly complying with all the provisions of M2A. The problem, of course, is that nobody in the West is willing to listen. In response, the Novorussians are multiplying the initiatives to make it harder and harder for western leaders to ignore the facts on the ground which are simple: the junta has not even begun complying with M2A while the Novorussians have complied. As soon as Zakharchenko, Deinego and Pushilin made their announcement, Lavrov called Steinmeier to stress that the Novorussians were doing everything they could and that the pressure should now be put on Poroshenko to follow suit. Now, of course Lavrov knows that Steinmeier is a US puppets and takes his orders from Uncle Sam and, more importantly, Lavrov also knows that Poroshenko cannot implement M2A, but since M2A was signed, the Russians are now pretending as if the Ukrainians could abide by its terms and they make sure that they, and their BRICS/SCO allies, mantrically repeat that “the Minsk 2 Agreements are the only way to solve this conflict“. In reality, of course, M2A is the best way to achieve regime change in the Ukraine. Why?
Because even though Poroshenko has not implemented any of the M2A points, he is already being openly attacked by the Right Sector and the various Ukronazi parties for not decisively fighting the oligarchs and the Novorussians. The situation in the western Ukraine is now dead serious and Dmitri Iarosh has openly described the regime in Kiev “traitors” and called for the numerous Ukronazi deathsquads to rebel and disobey Poroshenko’s orders.
Poroshenko would love to prove his patriotism by triggering yet another large scale attack on Novorussia, but the problem here is that this already failed the last two times around and that the Novorussians are now even much stronger than they used to be.
Military aspect:
Though only an actually full scale resumption of hostilities would test this hypothesis, there is very strong evidence that the Novorussians have successfully achieved their transition from a decentralized militia force to a unified regular army. This means that they can potentially go from tactical victories to operational level counter-attacks posing a major risk for the regime in Kiev. They clearly have enough men under arms and they openly admit that their equipment is “adequate”. Hopefully, so is their command and control (which used to be terrible). Even more telling is the fact that the Novorussian leaders are all clearly very confident about their ability not only to push back any Ukronazi attack, but to counter-attack and inflict major losses. Zakharchenko has openly said so many times. Time was always on the Novorussian side and now this is finally paying off.
The Novorussian confidence is best illustrated by the fact that even though Novorussian intelligence services have established that there are currently 70’000 junta soldiers backed by heavy armor and artillery all along the line of contact they still went ahead with their unilateral withdrawal. Besides, the Novorussians have had plenty of time to carefully prepare the terrain along the likely axis of attack of the junta forces which, if they attack, will be carefully channeled into carefully prepared fire pockets and destroyed. I also suppose that the Novorussians have dramatically improved their mobility and fire coordination which will make it much easier for them to engage any attacking force.
So the reality is this: the Novorussians are really not taking much of a risk with their unilateral actions. In fact, they have very nicely combined good political PR and sound military tactics.
Poroshenko’s dilemma
Poroshenko is in a terrible situation. The Ukrainian economy is basically dead. There is nothing left to salvage, nevermind turn the tide and overcome the crushing economic crisis. The Right Sector is up in arms and very, very angry. Folks in the western Ukraine are already seriously considering demanding their own special autonomy status. As for Odessa with Saakashvili in charge and the daughter of Egor Gaidar as Deputy Governor, it will inevitably explode, especially since the USA officially pays their salaries.
When Poroshenko goes to the Rada he has to look “tough”, i.e. say the exact opposite of what he committed to do according to M2A. But since even the White House has called the M2A the only solution, Poroshenko is put in the crazy situation of having to look like a peacemaker by day, and execute Nuland’s crazy orders by night. By now Poroshenko has probably already figured out that he is being used like both a pawn and a fall guy by the USA: when he will be forced to order an attack on Novorussia and this attack inevitably fails, he will be blamed for it all. Why would the USA order Poroshenko to attack even though such an attack is sure to result in yet another defeat? For two reasons: the (now rather hypothetical) hope that Russia might intervene and because that is the perfect way to get rid of Poroshenko. Unsurprisingly, Poroshenko has no desire to lose power and, most likely, die, so he is doing his best to avoid taking that dramatic step while continuing to shell Donetsk and the rest of the cities of the Donbass just to prove his “patriotism” and military “prowess”. The problem with that “solution” is that this kind of shelling does *nothing* to weaken the Novorussian armed forces but only serves to further enrage the people of Novorussia.
When the attack comes
So what will happen when the probably inevitable attack comes? My guess is that the Novorussians will rapidly and effectively counter it and mount an immediate counter offensive, probably towards Mariupol and/or Slaviansk. At this point the junta will freak out again and beg its western patrons to stop the Novorussians (which is exactly what happened before Minsk 1 and 2). Obama and Kerry will probably have the nerve to blame Russia for it all again, but in Europe the elites will be in full panic mode, not only because “their” guy clearly was the one to violate M2A and the one to have launched the attack, but also because they will be terrified of the possible depth of the Novorussian counter-attack (their biggest fear is a coastal corridor to the Crimean Peninsula). Remember the Sarkozy trip to Moscow to beg the Russians not to enter Tbilissi in 2008? I would not be surprised if something similar happened again (with Merkel or Hollande in Sakozy’s role). And, again, Putin will probably order the Novorussians to stop , but the terrain they would seize would remain in their hands, like in Debaltsevo. Everybody would have to accept that, however reluctantly. At which point I would expect a complete collapse of the regime in Kiev. Who could replace it then?
Regime change sure! But for what?
I only see two options here. Option one is a military coup to “save the Ukraine” and “restore peace”. That would be a de-facto end of the entire Ukronazi experiment and a basic acceptance of the Putin plan: a de-centralized, unitary and neutral Ukraine with a right of self-determination guaranteed by the Constitution. The other option is an openly Nazi regime of Bandera freaks à la Right Sector and the various death squads. The accession to power by bona fide Nazis will, of course, only re-start the process of breakup of the rump Ukraine which, form the Russian point of view, this is also a temporarily acceptable outcome. Russia cannot accept having permanent and unitary russophobic “Banderastan” on her borders, but a breakup of the Ukraine into several “zones of control” by various Urkonazi gangs presents no danger to Russia at all. I would argue that the worst regime for Russia (and Novorussia, of course) is what we have now: a unitary Ukraine ruled by a completely immoral and spineless oligarch in power, surrounded by Victoria Nuland’s minions in all key positions, with the official recognition and support of the EU/IMF/WB/etc. This configuration clearly has the greatest potential to threaten Russia and it already actually murders people in Novorussia every day. But if the Ukraine follows the Libyan or Iraqi “democracy model” then it will be a much bigger problem for the EU than for Russia.
Putin and Zakharchenko have all the time in the world
The “Ukronazi Ukraine” has by now already acquired enough self-destructive momentum for Putin and Zakharchenko to sit back and wait. They don’t have to do anything right now other than to prepare for a very likely and desperate suicide-attack by the junta against Novorussia. Should that happen, the Novorussian will be ready to counter-attack and fast and as deep as possible and then stop again and restart the mantra about “we support the territory integrity of the Ukraine” while thinking “but we can’t help it if the damn thing falls apart“. Obama and Kerry will, of course, blame Russia for it all, but for who long can anybody blame somebody for doing absolutely *nothing*?
The people of Novorussia unfortunately don’t
The toughest situation so far has been for the people of Novorussia who could take little comfort in the nice theory that time is on “their” side while shells are landing on their houses, schools and hospitals. For them, every minute of this horror was was an emergency which had to be stopped now. Things are now starting to get really ugly in the Nazi-occuppied Ukraine too. Check out this video of a famous Ukrainian blogger (in exile in Russia irrc) in which he reports how the “Ukrop” party (of Kolmoiskii and Iarosh) is trying to get votes by distributing food:
(please press ‘cc’ to see the English subtitles)
Scary no?
And it is only going to get worse, much worse. Politically, economically and socially the Ukraine is dead, even if the body is still warm. Only a regime change followed by the inevitable de-Nazification, combined with a long term and major international stabilization and reconstruction program might, eventually and slowly, allow the Ukraine to return to some modicum of normalcy, and that only if Russia plays a major role in this effort. Since such an outcome is absolutely unacceptable for the AngloZionist Empire, the Ukraine will continue to be a “black hole” like Kosovo, Libya or Somalia – a failed state with abject poverty ruled by thugs and Mafia dons. For this reason, a breakup of the country into several smaller entities is probably the least bad option for everybody, especially the Ukrainians themselves.
One big explosion or several smaller ones?
What if you were offered the choice to either be in the room A where 100gr of TNT would be detonated at once, or in room B where 5 times 20gr of TNT would be detonated sequentially, with some possibly not exploding at all? The choice is obvious, right? The same goes for the Ukraine.
There might be much less danger for the entire continent if the Ukraine was allowed to break up in several parts (Donbass, Central, Souther and Western for example) and this might be much better for the local population too. For one thing some parts are far more viable than others. They are also very different. And since the Ukraine in its current borders is both a creation of Lenin and Stalin and has no basis in history anyway, a breakup might be a much safer and more natural process than desperate attempts to keep this artificial entity alive. In ideological terms the Ukraine is a fantastic idea: a large virulently anti-Russian state ‘protecting’ the rest of Europe from the Russian hordes. Great! But as soon as one looks at the practicalities of such a project it becomes immediately clear that it is a crazy notion born in the sick minds of the rabidly russophobic western religious and political elites. The only question is this: will the western plutocrats agree to give up on the monster they created? The future of Russian does not depend on the answer, but the future of Europe probably will.
The Saker
Saker,
Thank you for this analysis. I could not fathom the reason for the further de-militarization by Donbass. My only reservation is the proven ability of US/EU to deny the truth and propagandize the world that
Russia is the aggressor.
I wonder if a part w/b played by “the Ukrainian army in exile” (the draft dodgers/refugees in Russia).
Best of all, if this goes as planned, Putin could certainly use a unifying event in Russia.
It has become obvious that Russia is greatly committed to doing everything in a fully legal manner. If this covert (as far as Russia is concerned) action goes well, perhaps a bolder internal approach will be considered. It is difficult to see how incremental legal steps at home will free Russia and group of other countries from the IMF & WTO treaties. Yet I think our side cannot win unless a revolutionary approach is taken, due to the pace of the Empire.
“Yet I think our side cannot win unless a revolutionary approach is taken, due to the pace of the Empire.”
Trying to stick by the M2A is part of a revolutionary approach, isn’t it? This is not being done for the benefit of the bankster puppets. Just like the last world war, “These provocations and atrocities were stoically ignored.”
Working to make Donbass look like the good guys will not stop the Empire, yet it might stop the poor sods called to fight and die for it. The Internet is kind of a game changer.
Poppadop, I said, “perhaps a bolder INTERNAL approach will be considered. It is difficult to see how incremental legal steps AT HOME will free Russia and group of other countries from the IMF & WTO treaties.”
Sorry if I wasn’t clear.
Okay, by “internal” you were talking about changes Russia and the like could make to themselves. Gotcha, Penny. In that case, maybe the incremental approach is to not startle the banksters into rushing. Once they hit the next phase of the plan, I doubt they’ll keep tolerating this access to the Internet.
http://rt.com/news/259121-us-bomb-rt-kusturica/
https://openmedia.org/blog/tpp-fast-track-internet-censorship
Bigger internal changes can be made after this point, anyway, right?
Saker, glad to see your concurrence on my thoughts on a prior thread about what strategy on the front lines is in play.
In realistic terms, what else could be going on?
Porky’s existential challenge is to do something that keeps him alive. What could that be? His “Generals” are Nuland, some jokers from Brussels, a few one-stars from the US and Biden.
If he had half a brain, he’d suffer a “health issue”, flee to Switzerland and resign.
The inevitable is coming like the change in seasons.
Your analysis is broad enough to include the force of Minsk 2. When the other side must do something, something impossible, then the pressure is titanic. Ukraine cannot be a junta-governed country. Donbass prevents that. Minsk 2 makes it impossible.
There is nothing but weakness in Kiev. While they heave artillery and mortar shells into hospitals and houses, it appears otherwise. But these are futile terror bombings by a fascist junta.
The Ukies face this: If you always lose, you can stop. Or you can go again and lose again.
It seems that the Ukies have the upper hand. In reality, they have no hand. They have no cards to play.
The clock is running. The sand is running out of the timer. Minsk 2 has built in timeline, indescript, but there. The metronome is driving Porky crazy.
Because he is who and what he is, I’m betting he goes for it one more time. So are Putin and Zakharchenko and the militia. Vengeance is best served cold.
Ah, Saker, another question: Why in the world are Russian banks heavily investing in their Ukrainian branches? Surely those funds are subject to nationalization or looting. They are State banks, so does the govt have no control even in such an instance?
Although VTB Bank and Sberbank are both state owned, they remain hostile to the interests of Russia. Both are led by well-connected pro-Western liberals who want to be seen as “legitimate” bankers at the Davos soirees they host (at Russian expense), who are more interested in
gamblingtrading in Western capital markets than in developing the Russian economy, and who see the Russian people as little more than cattle to be milked. The head of Sberbank, German Gref, is an ethnic German who was born and spent much of his life in the former Kazakh SSR because his family was deported there in 1941 as suspected Nazi collaborators.It gets worse.
In the Crimea, both banks immediately closed out their local branches following reunification, helped the West impose sanctions on Russian citizens, used the sanctions and their corporate structures as pretexts for refusing to return many depositors’ money, and have set about aggressively collecting debts owed to the same Ukrainian subsidiaries which confiscated the Crimeans’ money. Banks seizing Crimeans’ assets (e.g., homes) for the non-payment of debts to their Ukrainian subsidiaries while claiming they have no obligation to return funds deposited with their Ukrainian subsidiaries has caused considerable anger in the Crimea.
And still worse.
Not content with recapitalizing their Ukrainian subsidiaries, the banks have helped Ukraine organize its war bond drives, helped finance Ukrainian defense procurement, restructured the debts of companies run by anti-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs, and used their influence to protect Donbass assets to which they – or oligarchs they do business with – have financial ties. Rebel leaders such as Zakharchenko and Mozgovoi have both complained that the oligarchs’ ties to “Russian banks” such as VTB have made it impossible for them to nationalize Donbass assets owned by oligarchs who got rich after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
And the reason these 5th column groups are permitted to exist in Russia is…….? I am seriously tired of hearing all the “excuses” for why the government doesn’t stop this.There is “no excuse” acceptable for them to allow the type of people you mentioned to do the things you mentioned.Its a horrible failure of the government not to have dealt with that problem long ago.
Unless it’s all a sham… all of it.
Like you? All of you?
Anonymous,
No, I don’t think it’s a sham, but I sure don’t understand it either.
Evgeny Fedorov of Russian Sovereignty party says that only 1/4 of the circulating currency is in rubles, the rest being dollars & euros.
Starikov is firm in casting no blame on Putin, concurs w Putin’s actions that only small steps towards economic sovereignty can be taken, because– it will not be allowed.
If Russia nationalizes the central bank or the ruble or begins to issue her own currency she’ll be fully sanctioned and blockaded from trade. So the only way forward is to take tiny steps in hopes she can get away w it as the West weakens.
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/nikolai-starikov-how-escape-western-economic-system/ri8781
Starikov thinks Russia is too weak to make bold changes, but Fedorov says it’s life & death urgent that she should. What about a whole group of nations making the breakout from the IMF/Fed system together??
Thanks for the info Anonymous.
I know WHAT they’re doing. That’s why I ask, “They are State banks, so does the govt have no control even in such an instance?”
In the case of Sverbank it’s not wholly a state bank, but the state is the largest shareholder.
I understand that the Russian govt has no control over the central bank, because as just about everywhere, the central bank is “independent”, meaning controlled by the international banking cabal, thru the IMF/Fed system.
But the OTHER banks, the state banks? U mean the Russian govt doesn’t even control the Russian state banks?
Verily, I repeat, “Perhaps a bolder approach to change should be considered at home.”
Anonymous on July 20, 2015 · at 7:13
am UTC
I find it hard to believe the Crimean authorities would enforce re-possessions of homes to aid the coffers of Ukrainian banks: I suspect these are ‘paper’ threats with no practical outcomes.
I hope the Crimean parliament is ensuring takeover-by-stealth is being challenged through protectionist legislation.
Even if they are tardy, such re-possessions must be unlawful since they are financing a civil war.
Thank you Saker for another very sober analysis. It is just a matter of time when the Ukraian people will start to immigrate to the Western part of the Europe where already they have a huge headache from the African immigrants. Well, the script to make the largest chaos in Europe as soon as possible is proceeding well for now, till………………………
Let us hope that those both educated and wise seek their new life in Russia, while the ignorant, unwise and violent go west to bring karma to where it belongs.
This kind of a tactic makes sense only if backed by supreme confidence – à la Clint Eastwood’s “Go ahead punk. Make my day”.
It’s time to bring the Ukrainian saga to the next stage, to start tipping it over before NATO gets too firmly entrenched in Odessa and elsewhere.
If the Novorossyians are truly ready for this next stage, they’d have prepared the ground well so that when Poroshenko gives the order to attack, the Ukrainian army stages a “sitzkreig”. Most of it doesn’t move, and what does move gets destroyed along with the artillery. That means they’ve spent some effort to get to the field commanders, and have placed special forces deep into the Ukrainian territory.
I suspect the Novo’s have laid defence in depth – and the main roads will be pre sighted for Grad strikes with trucks that can move into and out of position very quickly. The other main thing is to have SAM positions pre planned and set up in short order to halt any Ukrainian attempts at air cover for their offensive.
After that it will be heavy artillery lines – shelling anything managing to move forward. The Russians have lot of history with this sort of war of attrition strategy – it worked in past and will work again, especially in this landscape.
The Ukrainians are forced to attempt a war of manoeuvre, but with neither any surprise nor tactical air cover, it simply cannot amount to much and may be a costly disaster.
Canada recently fast-tracked a free trade agreement with the current Kiev regime; paraphrasing Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatseniuk, “massive Canadian investment is needed to displace the corrupt oligarchs.” Furthermore, the Canadian contingent of 6 F-18s “reinforcing Eastern Nato” is restricted from dogfighting exercises, because these are the original F-18s from 1982; despite mid-life upgrades, they are afraid the wings will fall apart from 30+ years of metal fatigue. Canada is still having great difficulty (of its own making) finding replacements; the current Conservative government is facing an election this fall, they have already committed to the hyper-expensive (failed?) F-35, but at the same time they are realising the F-18E Super Hornet provides far better value. Put simply, they don’t want to lose “face.”
If indeed the Novorossians have re-armed and increased the size of their forces, are they still using Soviet-era equipment? Is Novorossia manufacturing its own Soviet-era equipment, are they using captured Ukrainian equipment, or has Novorossia been equipped with new post-USSR equipment?
Although Canada is ultimately a tiny player in the scheme of things it will be interesting to see what the likely NDP government will do in all of this.
The NDP is stupidly following the western line as far as I can tell. Once they win the election I expect this will change. They have to many politically conscious members from Quebec to let this nonsense carry on much longer. IN my experience political parties are always miles behind the rank and file, just like the labour bureaucracy.
RR
Dick, I don’t know much about it, but I remember that Novorossiya captured a truly incredible amount of equipment at Debaltseva. It was a mixture of different sources, but some of it sounded good.
There does seem to be an idea that tank warfare is a little outdated & there are not too many situations in which it is the preferred approach.
(Not my opinion. I know nothing)
Thank you Saker . I do hope that it will turn out as you predict. History shows how evil man can be to man. No doubt that is why the lowly look for Leadership while too often the Leaders look for their own agendas. Thus the poor suffer as expendable pawns too often.
On behalf of the disintegration of Ukraine as the most likely outcome in the current crisis I would like to draw a parallel to the disintegration of former Yugoslavia, which I directly witnessed, first as the only Western observer in Titova Mitrovica, when the independence status was revoked by Milosevic in May 1989 and many Kossovo people were killed by the regular army. This was the begin of the end of Yugoslavia. And second as a close analyst and visitor of this country throughout the 90s. The fundamental difference is that the disintegration of Yugoslavia was in favour of the West as it diminished the Russian influence on the Balkans and helped the NATO expansion in Southeastern Europe. While the disintegration of Ukraine will only help Russia as it will create Novorussia as a viable state entity with strong Russian ties and a major political power and factor in a future divided Ukraine. This new constellation will wipe out any putative success of the AngloSaxon Empire of Evil in this part of the Old Continent. The EU, in case it has not collapsed in the meantime, will have no desire to engage in a failed country like Ukraine because the financial costs are exorbitant and the military strategic advantage for NATO to put Russia under pressure has been lost with the disintegration of Ukraine.
I think that this is known to the West since Minsk 2 and that is why the US is very cautious not to engage too much in Ukraine, while still causing maximal havoc as to harm Russia and separate it from Western Europe. As Russian foreign policy has always been based on long-term goals, patience and endurance, psychologically it is much more easy for Kremlin to follow this strategy waiting for Ukraine to fall in its own trap than the West that is dominated by short-term, short-sighted policies and now on the abyss of financial meltdown with the insolubility of the Greek Crisis, which is in fact a Mediterranean-British-Easteuropean crisis as except for Germany all other EU economies are in dire economic and financial conditions (deep recession since 2008) and have amassed exorbitant national debt.
Never before has Russia had all the trumps in its hand, not even at the height of its hegemonic expansion in 1975, when the Helsinki peace conference de facto legalised the occupation of Eastern Europe by the Soviet Union.
I wished however that the Saker spans a historical bridge from time to time and presents the bigger picture departing from the 20th century Realpolitik in Europe and not getting lost in technical details, which may be of interest to some readers and journalists, but miss the main point. Also accidental excursions in the past, especially in the murky waters of Orthodox Christianity, without displaying a broader gnostic, transcendental point of view are of little help for a better understanding of what is currently happening.
That being said, I still miss the personal breakthrough in the Saker’s Weltanschauung that will enable him to perceive the overarching cosmic dynamics behind all events in the current End Time. It is somewhat disappointing to observe him wandering in the current political maze, given that fact that he is so near to the all-important insight, namely that we have reached at the end of human history of the old mankind as we know it and that what comes next surpasses all human imagination.
With best regards and in high esteem for the Saker’s efforts.
Dr. Georgi Stankov
“That being said, I still miss the personal breakthrough in the Saker’s Weltanschauung that will enable him to perceive the overarching cosmic dynamics behind all events in the current End Time.”
You suggest that such a breakthrough for an Orthodox Christian leads to a “broader gnostic, transcendental point of view”.
Consider, please, the possiblity that it leads to Islam.
“. That being said, I still miss the personal
breakthrough in the Saker’s Weltanschauung
that will enable him to perceive the
overarching cosmic dynamics behind all
events in the current End Time. It is
somewhat disappointing to observe him
wandering in the current political maze,
given that fact that he is so near to the all-
important insight, namely that we have
reached at the end of human history of the
old mankind as we know it and that what
comes next surpasses all human
imagination.”
Dr Stanikov – do you mean the transhumanist/eugenics project?
If so, could you please elaborate?
Especially the extent of Russian cognizance (perhaps collusion from fifth columnists?)
Thank you in advance .
Are the “Ukronazis” actually that numerous and powerful these days? Didn’t their vaunted demonstration get only a hundred people or so? I just have trouble imagining a small number of Brownshirts winning the day if the US wants otherwise.
As for who has been breaking Minsk, well, that has two narratives, and they aren’t going to change unless the West has a reason to get rid of Poroshenko or whatever government is in charge of Kiev.
The problem with the analogy regarding Sarkozy and Georgia is that Russia had won the war, and was deciding how much house cleaning to do. In the end, Russia agreed to do very little. Adjara and Javakheti were left in the current rotten state from a Russian point of view, and even just a little modifying of the South Ossetian border to make it cleaner and more intimidating wasn’t done. And this was after Russia had overwhelmingly and fairly quickly won on the battlefield. Russia gave up a lot to stay friends with the West. If Minsk 3 stops the NAF with taking one city, such as Mariupol, would this really be feasible for the Russian side? What are you getting in return?
Your point about how what we have now with an oligarchical anti-Russian regime being the worst possible scenario for Russia is precisely why that may be the goal for the West, not an openly street gang government. And this is why it is entirely possible that there won’t be a big war, just more consolidation to hold elections and bring in a new oligarch as president when the time comes. Poroshenko may become hated, as Bush II or Obama have become hated, but the game goes on. A new political figurehead and the powers behind the scenes can continue with their pressure on Russia – and more TV shows and classes for the children about how all their problems are due to the “Asiatic Russians”.
I see that as the problem too.Sometimes (most times) half-measures are just that,half-measures.They don’t solve problems. They only “kick the can down the street”. If you get the chance,you finish your enemy and end the war.Thousands of years of history show that to be a truism.This “modern” 2nd half of the 20th century,and first years of the 21st century, “frozen conflict” idea is a foolish aberration.It will only lead to massive disasters in the end.While causing crisis after crisis in the meantime.In 2008 if Russia had liberated Georgia and forced a settlement on the region (similar to what they want for Ukraine,”Federalization”).You wouldn’t see the festering sores and NATO meddling you see now.Nothing is settled there.And one slip of power by Russia and it can blow-up again.The same is true with the Transnistria,Armenian/Azerbaijani situation,and Ukraine is the same.No one in their right mind thought/thinks,the US/NATO/the junta,is going to allow Ukrainian Federalization unless they are forced to.Never can (nor should) you deal with nazis.They can’t deal with Russia and survive.So in the end, a crisis that with minimum losses, could have been stopped at the beginning. Will end with maximum losses sometime in the future.Frozen conflicts are the same games played by NATO in the Balkans.Where as long as they want to (and keep force there) there will be peace.But nothing was settled.No one is happy over the sloppy job done of “peace”.And when NATO decides they don’t want peace anymore.Or there is a slip-up of their power.The entire “settlement” blows up again.
At present, imho Russia is not prepared to liberate others. Those wishing to be liberated need to contribute more themselves. This attitude may have tragic consequences. -So did Russian romanticism in WW1
Russia shouldn’t “liberate” other out of romanticism but out of need for self-preservation.
It isn’t “just” out of humanitarianism.It is for their own protection.Russians having a genocidal Russophobic state with a taste for Russian blood on their border.Is a bad idea for Russia.After they’ve killed the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.What is to stop them from killing Russians across the border.Russians in Rostov are just as likely victims as their aunts, uncles,cousins, in Lugansk were for fascist death squads. In fact the fascists have already promised to come for them next.
I’s not like a year ago, and so far similar to Georgia/Abkhazia with subsequent governments being more sensible. Running another ex-USSR republic from Moscow is not on the cards. Soviet/ Stalin methods are no longer available, and new ones not invented. Iraq in the end was a massive failure, no reason to believe they would have more success.
Only as long as Russian troops guard those places are they safe.The moment Russian troops are gone it would blow up.As it stands there today,Russia, behind the scenes heavily influences those governments already.As I said,half-measures,are just that,half-measures.They never turn out well in the end.
They would need even more troops, economic subsidies and involvement of all sort trying to run all Georgia, with very questionable chances of success for the whole endeavor.
There were always Russian/Soviet troops in Georgia, massive presence- three army groups- at the fall of Soviet Union. That was all gone right before the war of 2008.
Military base in Gudauta, Abkhazia was manned by Russia since 1992, withdrawn around 2002 –just to be back after the Russia-Georgia conflict of 2008. It was more ‘back to normal’ sort than a ‘half measure’
On the numbers of right sector….
did nobody see the reference Zak made about many are
just straight, ordinary Ukrainians, recruited into right sector,
possibly just to boost the numbers?
I’ve only seen a dozen or so ‘hard core’ posing with Hitler’s
and Bander’s photos, sporting the tattoo.
Of course not every one of them court being famous,
every time a camera is around, but surely there can’t be 10,000?
It’s all true! The US ambassador in Moscow suggested earlier that the seperatists were shelling themselves.
Now, just in time, here’s the proof from that font of verisimilitude, the British Propaganda Korporation:
“”Last time the centre of Donetsk was hit was in February,” senior rebel official Eduard Basurin told Reuters news agency.
“I have no explanation. The Ukrainian side says we shelled ourselves. Do you believe we can shell ourselves?” he added.
He was speaking after Ukrainian military official Serhiy Halushko said the army had intercepted and posted online rebel radio traffic that suggested the separatists had planned to shell Donetsk.
In a BBC interview, OSCE deputy chief monitor Alexander Hug confirmed that “there was a serious increase in tension yesterday (Saturday) evening and night”.
“[The shelling] was being conducted from within the city of Donetsk firing towards the west, towards (the) position of the Ukraine armed forces, as well as returned fire from this position into the city of Donetsk,” he added.” ”
Note the implication that ‘Donetsk” fired towards the UAF who only then returned fire. What’s more “independent experts” agree -I am impressed.
Where’s Grandma’s Lie Soap?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33587798
Pardon my lingo, but Hug is a p.o.s.
If he isn’t an alco, I’m Barack Obomber.
Presumably his addiction is pre-eminent qualification for the job, what with all that hanging out in hotel bars..
And concomitant ‘failure’ to work out direction and timelines.
I don’t know how the Donetsk folk haven’t lynched him yet.
Saker, from a vast difference I think your solution is probably the only ‘natural’ one. I only wish that my country could be broken up into reasonably governable parts, probably five or six. Maybe it will happen sometime. Then the USA will stop trying to rule the world from a distance.
Jim of Olym (region of Cascadia)
What’s to stop Ukrops from simply continuing shelling Donbas, and creeping up little by little as the edges are destroyed and people forced to evacuate — or bombing Donetsk as just happened? Why should they mount a big attack, opening themselves to counter attack?
Will not this withdrawal of weapons make it that much easier to continue on as they are, but doing even more damage with taking less damage to themselves?
That question I’ve been asking myself too.
I see
“Pro-Kiev militants encouraged by the lack of counter battery fire have strengthened shellings and have advanced in a number of the DPR and LPR points.”
at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX7v2DqmRNE
21.07.2015 Military Report of Novorossia
Not good, I think. What next, General?
This is truly a pitiful scene. While the majority of the young “gung-ho” thugs roar off to “kill the Moskal” the elderly & infirm are left to fend for themselves while the corrupt oligarchs, etc. with financial means & muscle prey upon them. What a wonderful world this New American Century has bought to the people of the world. While some live in fear of guns & bombs & where the next meal is coming from the majority in the west have no idea that this reality /fate could befall us.
While there are relatively few of us who are awake to the reality of the Hegemon it is imperitive that we awaken as many as we can around us, using cogent arguments & examples to expose the Hegemonic agenda. The Saker leads the way & we must ALL do our bit every day.
Thanks sAker & to all who’ve not had the time to read the articles on Srebrenica I would recommend that you take the time. That era in Yugoslavia is the birth of the R2P boondoggle the west use as their stalking horse.
Cheers
Chris in Ch-Ch
Thank you, Saker.
As always, a great analysis.
Great analysis as always, thank you.
Democracy in action. You show your passport and sell your vote for 10 kgs of kasha and some sardines and macaroni.And then amerika will shout ukrainian democracy.
They’re not selling their vote.
I can even imagine Russia supporting central Kiev against Nazis in Ukraine, so that the denazification comes from Ukrainians themselves. The screaming West will be an image…
But for this to happen, Ukrainians need to see that Russia is not hostile, but the most natural and brotherly trade partner they can dream of – and the West is never going to help the ordinary people , look at Greece.
Short and very good speech by Austrian EU-MP in German:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVQXjQiJlEk
Summary: EU plan to pressure Ukraine against Russia failed as there are no real offers to Ukraine. He refers to a visit by Armenian MP to EU parliament where they were asked how they were pressured to go with Russia. Answer: EU never made solid offers, Russia did within half an hour.
It is true that Ukraine came formally into existence as a state, after the October revolution. But, in the XIX century, Ukraine, like various other European countries, became obsessed (or infected) with nationalistic fever, (see Italy, Greece, Serbia). Though in Ukraine the nationalistic fervor did not produce practical political results for various reasons, outside the scope of a comment.
The Soviets, however, were those who most effectively promoted – we can call it – a distinctive Ukranian culture and heritage. Therefore, toppling the statues of Lenin, besides being an act of stupidity, is also an egregious demonstration of historical ignorance.
A very clear analysis.
“By now Poroshenko has probably already figured out that he is being used like both a pawn and a fall guy by the USA: when he will be forced to order an attack on Novorussia and this attack inevitably fails, he will be blamed for it all.”
Doesn’t this suggest that such an attack will likely be preceded by a false flag event of some kind, to justify the regime’s aggression as being a response to “terrorism”?
Doesn’t this also suggest that the necessary kind of false flag event will be very bloody indeed – a massacre of its own citizens by the Poroshenko regime simply to provide a media-spun cover story for its own aggression against Novorussia?
Or,a report that those “dastardly terrorists” are certain to have been the ones shooting down MH17.And “of course” they must be “brought to justice” by the Ukrainian government.And also “of course” how else but to “liberate” the area.Isn’t there about to be a report coming out from NATO….er…I mean the “neutral unbiased” investigation soon. And if Russia objects, “well” wouldn’t that prove they are involved as well.And “of course” more sanctions would be needed for that.
my thinking is that USA is setting a trap for Poro-will he get back Donbass as he is promising still, or Sakaashvilli to prove himself to be USA ‘s right hand man, considering the delivery of humvees to Odessa intended for the ATO? Sakaashvilli is keeping control of fraud, criminality, financial success in that region -for his own power base and own intentions to confront Poro??
USA nervous about possibility of AFN expanding ? Hence Odessa support, away from Right Sector, handier for intentions Crimea.
I had done a long comment but lost it, if I remember correctly re various bits from anna news,sputnik ,etc, new Right sector customs point on Transnystria border, Poro going to Lughansk may appoint Transcarpathia Governor Moskal(who complains why recruit when Right Sector mostly criminals) to Governor of Lughansk, Nuland putting pressure on Serbia, Georgia getting restless over Russian”expansion’, Kyrgistan v v unhappy re recognition of a criminals Human Rights award. Nuland pressurises Serbia.
Yats appeals to ukraine migrants to come home-maybe more fodder for conscription, but video on anna news re advising people to prepare for war and how to use shelters, and a law put to RADA re creating local militia groups………ready for martial law?
Protests in Kiev and Dniepetrovosk, plus grenade attack in Odessa………..
if my previous comment lost because I pressed wrong button, you’ll have to do with this as I can’t be bothered to post links, extracts again………….! its that kind of day……………..
Eu using Tatars against Crimea strategy, Poro grants Tatars retrospective autonomy over crimea etc…articles in fortruss, sputnik etc. People can scour the web themselves.
It’s still that kind of day. Hope yours is better.
JJ, sorry your day stinks. Hope tomorrow’s better. I write my longer comments on Wordpad, then copy it to Saker. That way I can easily copy the bits I want to retain to my standing files on Armenia, or whatever.
Would Oles Brezina agree with your last paragraph claiming artificiality of Ukraine as a concept ? I think the Ukraine borders are artificial, for sure – Donbass, Galichina, Volyn and Zakarpatia are certainly not Ukraine and should have never been part of it. But your claim is definitely too far reaching.
Whether or not is Ukraine a viable concept is not up to US, Germany, Poland, Russia, me or you to decide, dear Saker. It is up to Kievans, Donbassans, Kharkovians, Galichans, Vinnytsians : in other words its up to Ukrainians. Furthermore, every region should have a right to decide, whether it desires to be part of particular country.
We should respect right of self-determination. For Donbass, for Galichina, for Kiev. Regardless of the geopolitics or historical “rights”.
Rachotilko:
I think the Ukraine borders are artificial, for sure – Donbass, Galichina, Volyn and Zakarpatia are certainly not Ukraine and should have never been part of it.
If real “Ukraine” is Cossacks, then real “Ukraine” runs from Kiev east to nearly the Volga and Caucusus and speaks South Russian/Surzhyk/whatever you want to call the local Russian dialect. West “Ukraine” should then be thought of as Ruthenia, inhabited by Rusyns – something like a South Belarus, and would be the area speaking Polonized Russian. Like so – separate the blue and yellow:
https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1432/57/1432576121145.jpg
I think that map really says it all.It confirms what I’m known for years.And what an easy check of social media (VK) will show you.The Southeast is vastly East Russian speaking on a personal (if not official) level.The North Center is split,but with East Russian and mixed dialects being the vast majority there as well.The only area that is mainly “Ukrainian” (West Russian) speaking is the far West.That is why the Western areas are where the nationalists are strongest.And the center of the Bandera supporters.They want to ethnically and culturally “cleanse” Ukraine of their Rus heritage.To make sure they can reform the nation into a West Ukrainian dominated society.They were the strength of maidan,they are the political strength,and they are the military strength of the junta forces.Basically,this is a civil war of one area of the country (West Ukraine) trying to impose their rule over the entire country.With the Southeast of the country fighting back against that.
Agreed Rachotilko, that’s why I get queasy when I hear that the New World Ordering being designed by BRICS will be so much better. Seems to me we ought to be looking for ways to let each individual country decide its own development, w/o fitting into ANYBODY’S masterplan.
And as always I think the first step is economic sovereignty to issue their own currency and credit instruments apart from the IMF/Fed system.
Second step wd be to opt out of WTO, choosing for itself the degree of trade and the degree of protectionism. (Maybe labor in the US doesn’t WANT to compete w the price of Bangladeshi labor)
“And as always I think the first step is economic sovereignty to issue their own currency and credit instruments apart from the IMF/Fed system.”
Implementing that is like signing your own death warrant as a leader, and will put the country in extreme danger.
In a fair and normal political/militarily climate it would indeed be the logical thing to do.
Governmind, Can’t find a way to break thru to national economic sovereignty if you don’t look for it. Can’t build an awareness or constituency or educate people about it if you never mention it.
If you fear to make the right decision for your country.Then you need to resign and let a braver man take that position.A leader swears an oath to his people to serve them fearlessly.I’m old fashioned enough to believe your honor requires you fulfill that oath or give up your position.
in a fair world, each country being independent and sovereign, would be just fine.
But, it is also vulnerable to predators. financial, military, colour coups, economic
terrorism and the like.
Banding together in agreement, financial, economic and military, gives predators
pause, well some of them anyway. Until they (the rapacious elite 1 per cent)
are neutralised nobody is safe, just ask Saddam, Ghadaffi, Hong Kong, Armenia,
Venezuela, Macedonia, and Ukraine, and these are just the recent examples.
And to use a cliche I personally dislike……the list goes on.
In plain language: breakup into three parts (from the east to the west)
1. Novorossia
2. Malorossia
3. Galicia
This will not work!
At first, Poland will immediately start to yell: Galicia is ours, Galicia is ours – which it is not, of course. If Galicia belongs to some other country at all, it belongs to Felix Austria. For Felix Austria Slovakia and the most part of Romania would have to be returned to Hungaria – and even if you don’t like it: most people in nowadays Galicia would sooner rather than later turn history back some 100 years. And – again even if you don’t like it – even Russia would very much appreciate to turn history back to before the AngloSaxons turned (western) Europe into slavery and butchery.
Second: (then!) Novorossia will not (for very good reasons) be willing to pay for the reconstruction of Malorossia in any way. Instead NR will immediatly adapt itself to de facto integration into the Southern Federal District (Южный федеральный округ). In fact it already started (e.g. currency). And: what (then!) about Crimea?
Third: Kiev will literally burn. It will burn as long as both (western) Europe and Russia (eastern Europe) would be willing to … save Mallorossia.
After all, after some more 100 years, there will be another … okrug of the Russian Federation: Okrug Central Europe (Oкруг Центральная Европа) including: Bessarabia, Malorossia, Belarus, perhaps Galicia but all three oblasts of the Baltics.
And of course, it doesn’t matter at all if Europe (western and eastern) or Northamerica would like that – it’s simply the only exit to the future for the nothern hemisphere.
Russia returning Slovakia to Hungary ? You sir are surely Hungarian, aren’t you ? No way in hell would Russia give up any Slavic land to non-Slavic oppressor.
No way in hell would Slovak population let either Hungary or Russia decide their fate.
They’ve done it many times before, i.e. letting others decide their fate. That applies to most of the (Eastern, Central) Europe.
Mostly when they were occupied by powerful empires and the like.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for your analysis. I think we can all agree that Russia will be blamed – the OSCE “observers” are already saying Donetsk shelled itself! What more can one say – a totally useless, corrupt organisation.
Lets hope things do go the right way for the Donbass and Ukraine in general. It can never be a unitary state as long as Nuland is around…….
Rgds,
Veritas
hello saker.
what has happened with the print friendly pages which were part of the new blog system just prior to its move to .is?
i would really like that to be reinstated.
andrew
I live in Amsterdam, Netherlands, where representatives of all major US firms, multinationals have offices, homes. I write homes as they are sure they own Netherlands lock, stock and barrel. Since Euronews does not deviate from US propaganda, that ‘forgets’ Ukraine as unimportant, no-one on the streets is interested. It is as if, in order to survive themselves, they have forgotten Ukraine under attack means Russia under attack and they have ‘forgotten’ Russia alone won WW11.
A counter sanction form Russia in all Dutch flowers and other plants would work wonders of conveying Russia’s importance to the man and woman in the Netherlands streets.
They all know now that the M17 Boeing 777 Malaysian airliner was brought down by the US in order to split Russia from Europe. They do not understand that the US plan is to empty Russia completely, erasing it from history. Yes, USA/Germany are sure they can do this and will. Terrified Europe does not yet realize what the US is unleashing on them. How they plan also to remove as many of the old who remember the real facts of WW11 by way of vast European poverty. Change the culture of professional integrity by closing the famous universities as the present middle classes implode.
A piece of advice for Majo: the Second World War is usually abbreviated with Roman numerals, i.e. “WWII”, rather than “WW11”. The latter would read “World War Eleven”, which is confusing. For simplicity, one may also simply write “WW2”.
Sorry, i forgot:
Anonymous on July 20, 2015 · at 10:42 am UTC
that’s me
I feel so badly for those elderly people having to stand in line to put some food in their mouths.
I hope the day comes ( soon) when Saakashvili will eat his read tie once again and Poroshenko, Nuland and the fat Jew thug oligarch eats their “white and blue”.
Mr Saker,
Top of the morning (where we reside), to you.
Here is an article from the Zionist propaganda rag, the New York Times;
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/20/world/europe/russian-town-near-ukraine-once-quiet-now-buzzes-with-military-activity.html?ref=todayspaper
Whatever happens within the Ukraine, it will be portrayed by the Zionist American Anglo imperialists as a Russian invasion of a peaceful independent nation (insert name here).
Now for the strong cup of coffee:
You know of my admiration (and gratitude) to you for all you have done to open this avenue of truth for, among others, the American citizens. One day you might even receive a plaque of gratitude from the leadership of the movement that restores the American (Constitutional) Republic.
We also have our disagreements (the Saker is breathing a huge sigh of relief).
Under the conditions of war prevailing in the Eastern Ukraine, I fail to see the usefulness, or the sanity, of withdrawing the defenders and their small arms (or any arms), from the borders with the American Zionist Nazi puppet troops. The combined area of the liberated portions of Novorossiya are small as it is (most of the area is within the range of the Kiev regime artillery).
This withdrawal of defenders from the front lines can be described in military terms – as a retreat.
The liberators of Novorossiya are moving in the wrong direction. Indeed, pressure must be kept on the Kiev fascists; playing pseudo-psychological games with Zionist American Quisling Nazis has not worked in the past. It is the pressure of Novorossyan military victories that has destabilized (to some degree) the Kiev regime. Relieving that pressure will help the regime, not hurt it. If Djugashvili was capable of returning and telling the truth, he might concur.
Read that NYT article once again, and compare it with the thousands of imperialist diatribes that appear regularly in the imperialist media, and see if these bought scum may be reasoned with, or played with.
In Conclusion: (the Saker sighs: “finally”):
The 320 million of the 320,000,050 American people will never be informed of what a reasonable nice guy the “Russian dictator, strong man, shirtless horseback rider,” is. They are not aware he was elected in -pay attention here- contested elections against real and powerful and well financed opponents. The majority cannot spell “constitution,” fewer have read it. Don’t ask about the “Declaration of Independence.” Don’t ask American college students -who wrote the Declaration of Independence? For years, regardless of the History course I was teaching, I found it necessary to distribute copies of the Declaration of Independence, in addition to the Course Syllabus.
In this case, not a step back. “behind us, no more Russia.”
Yours, PJA
I hope I am in error.
If I am, it would be the first time.
For the Democratic Republics!
IMAGINE
There is something coming. In October the Dutch government can not longer delay the report on the destruction of MH17. As Russia prevents a MH17 court under the auspices of the Security Council The Netherlands will have to organize a criminal court to prosecute those that are indicted by the report. That will be politically very interesting as the lack of information about the content must mean that it doesn’t support the Western version of the story.
Careless talk costs lives – don’t give up the farm!
Saker:
their biggest fear is a coastal corridor to the Crimean Peninsula
No, they would concede that because that is a net win for the West considering they had nothing in 2013. Their biggest fear is DNR/LNR crossing the Dnipr and taking Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kiev, linking up with Transnistria, unilaterally redrawing the borders via fiat through seizing control of the state appartus in Kiev and leaving them with the Ukrcrazies in Lviv. They don’t care about losing the likes of Melitopol or Izyum. The only reason the DNR is not already in Mariupol is to allow Akhmetov to save face and sell to the world without sanctions.
Skilit is in Mariupol – I hope NAF catch him and he is paraded through Donbass. Death is too good for him.
Saker,
i hope you may be right!
1- But, at the moment, Novorussians are withdrawing, and it does not look Kiew is falling into the trap. They are not advancing, but shelling any possible habitat in Dombas, making impossible for people to live there, with the full complicity of Us and Eu. Decisions reached at the level of the contact groups do not reach the battlefield. Of course, if some agreement had been developed between the militia and the ukrie military, it would not be reported in the news, and like you said, this may be the reason for “such great confidence” in the militia: one thing for sure, the present situation cannot continue for long, something will happen.
2- It has always been a problem for me to understand how it is possible that Ukres who went to Russia to avoid the war, do not think to take arms and help Dombas free ukraine from the nazi who are stil terrorizing their families in the country. The elderly people in line to ‘prostitute’ themselves for a bowl of macaroni surely have children, grandsons….where are they? And Russia is she giving food and hospitality for nothing?
An absolutely *brilliant* analysis Saker!
One of your best, in my view.
I have been wondering just what was going on with NAF withdrawal, Right Sector upsurge, Nato-by-stealth (Tie-eater in Odessa, now claiming he’s a personal target of Putin’s and in fear of his life), bomb scares in Kharkov, unrest in Lvov and Yarosh making a lot of noise lately..
not to mention the accelerated tide of disinfo coming from the (alleged) NovoRussian side..
You’ve joined all the dots and made perfect sense of it all.
The only thing I worry about is that the NAF Intel is good enough to evacuate NovoRussians from the UAF onslaught. It won’t protect infrastructure/buildings, but lives are much more important – the former can be re-built (even improved.)
The Hungarians are prepared for for a Transcarpathian exodus of ethnic Hungarian from the Ukraine.
The more interesting question is – are the Poles?
And what will happen when Yarosh puts out the call to his fellow ‘ultras’ (fascists) in the Baltics/Poland, even Germany itself?
Has the EU any notion of the can of worms that’s been opened?
I am relieved you believe the NAF
Porks between a rock and a hard (very hard) place?
The Saker is not the only one to think so:
http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/07/20/europeans-defending-themselves-against-right-sector.html
My usual browser+translate now throws up a demand from Google to prove I am not a bot (because ‘unusual traffic’ has been ‘detected’ from my IP address.
Nevermind.
Here’s an article which basically affirms the Sakes thesis:
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&u=http://news-front.info/2015/07/20/strategiya-i-taktika-moskvy-v-ramkax-t-n-minskogo-otstupleniya/&usg=ALkJrhjQni_aBZb7ntTG9JznqywKy-E-cA
First, allow me to apologize for being inactive for so long on blog. We have been extremely busy with events both up north and here plus other odds and ends. The good thing is my book is now published on Kindle so with the writing complete I now have more time to make troub…..to participate in blog amongst other things. We have kept in contact with many of the refugees blog and we managed to get from harm’s way last summer and early fall. Almost all were moved to the mainland last late fall and early winter and most are doing well. Vocations and flats have been provided, children have completed their first year of school in RF schools and several will start their first year in Institute this fall. Sadly, two fathers will not be returning to their families. We have done what we can and what is needed for those two families.
We keep in constant real time contact with Gorlovka, Donetsk City Proper and several other areas of Novorossiya. This contact is generally daily. My better half was in contact from 04:00 today until almost noon and I’ll give the ornery little dickens this, she kept it together until she was finished but when she completed the last communication she lost it.
I am a nuts and bolts man as Saker can attest. I call them like I see them, but on the other hand I am no fool. The events of the last three months have been of particular interest and I will try to give you a brief synopsis of same.
Since Mutti Merkel and Golland ran to VVP as NAF was in process of kicking some serious butt in January and February of this year, things have stalemated after the Minsk protocols were signed. We knew even before the ink was dry that the Ukes had no intention of abiding by the agreements and events up to today have proven that conjecture in spades.
The bombardments never stopped, not for a single day, from the signing through today. Like in April of last year and October of last year they slowed down a bit after the signing but they never stopped and every day it is a little more. Their targets are almost excuslively civilian living areas, private houses, shops, magazines, factories and businesses big and small, food kiosks and shops are prime targets, electric, water, gas and canalazation are also prime targets.
The Debaltsyevo Pocket was an incredible disaster for the ukes. It is estimated by very reliable sources that over 5000 ukes died in the fighting and their panicked retreat. Debaltsyevo was to be the springboard for the spring offensive to surround and reduce Donetsk City and the surrounding areas. The ukes were to attack west from the salient leading down to Debaltsyevo and the large forces in Debaltsyevo were to attack west and meet uke units attacking east from south of Donetsk. The booty that passed in to DNR hands after the battle is the stuff of legend.
When disaster was apparent and Mutti and The Fop ran to Mockba, the fighting around the city did not stop. However, there was a one day, as in daylight, ceasefire after the EU visit. In that one day some few people were allowed to leave Debaltsyevo on the condition that they take their personal weapon and the clothes on their backs, not so much as a note pad more.
Since that battle both NAF and AFU have been training constantly and digging in, UAF digging in far more than NAF. At this time NAF has passed from being a relatively well run small unit insurection to a truly fully integrated and equped army with complete command structure, unit structure, supply and support structure and logistics supply structure.
Now we come to the current time. All morning my lass was talking to sources up north, most being women we know. In Gorlovka, for instance, almost all the young and not so young men are either serving, the majority, or hiding out in Krimu and Rostov, the minority, and as an aside the welcome for all those military aged men down here is wearing thin, very thin. Why are our men up there fighting whilst they are down here enjoying the summer?
The overriding comments from the women spoken to today was abject fear concerning the withdrawal of weapons and armor from the lines by NAF and there was more than one very tearful and fearful conversation. The ukes have not stopped shooting during the withdrawal nor this evening. I had briefed my lass on what to tell them them, nothing but the truth but things civilians don’t think of. Withdrawing armor can seem to be a mistake, but I think few of you understand how fast for instance tanks can cover three klicks if needs be. The light artillery and such withdrawn generally has a more than three klick range. Medium and heavy arty has far more range. Do you really think that the withdrawn units left there extensively ranged in artillery charts in place? I think not. And the soldiers did NOT withdraw, only the light and medium arty. Everything was left in place around the hot spots, for instance Donetsk Aerodrome and around Gorlovka although around Gorlovka a few token items were removed.
This entire withdrawal is mostly PR, to wit NAF is abiding by the Minsk Protocols and the ukes have not, will not and never will abide by them. Will the west listen? You tell me. Will OSCE report, for once, the truth? That will happen about the time you see the Dark Lord driving a Kenworth with a snow plow in his kingdom.
The next week or so may tell the tale. I don’t know of the ukes will take the bait and attack. I don’t know that if they do attack if Mutti and The Fop will come running to Mockba again begging for yet another ceasefire. I don’t know, but I think they will, if NAF will again stand down when they are yet again on the cusp of victory. What I do know is no matter what happens we in Krim will get yet more sanctions. Not to worry, we are resourceful down here.
Auslander,
Awesome to see your comment again. Wonderful report. Coincides with what Col.Cassad reports. No withdrawal of men, just some equipment moved three kilometers (klicks for newbies).
A terrible reality for the people bombarded. Really tragic when during what might be a ceasefire the dying and suffering persists. But, no one could have ever believed it was a real ceasefire. Those occur when victory and defeat are established.
Meanwhile, Donbass is building its infrastructure and the economy. They will be able to work and grow.
Next time, update us on the way Crimea has changed. You are living under sanctions, but Russia is expending money to reconstruct things, also.
Looking forward to more “real time” updates.
Please relate to the souls in Gorlovka and the other zones of conflict that hundreds of thousands of people around the world are praying for them, praying for a swift end to the war, and thinking of them and their families. The world knows even if the Media refuses to tell the truth. Tell them with are with them. There is a Resistance out here.
Larchmonter, many of the not present in this or north AO went patently insane when the idea was broached of the withdrawal of the lighter equipment. Every keyboard commando tossed in their vociferous displeasure and disapproval of the event or their glee that NAF was retreating. Neither group was correct. We knew that the ukes would not stop bombardments and they have not. We knew that OSCE would report little, if anything, about the withdrawal and they did exactly as we thought they would. We also knew that the ukes would not take the bait they were offered immediately and they have not as of 10:00 local time today. The ukes have foreign advisors down to battalion level and sometimes down to Rota level including some of the more unsavory units and these advisors are anything but stupid.
I/we are not privy to any level of command structure or planning and that is as it shoud be, ergo we have no official idea of what is planned or what this withdrawal was for/about but we are not fools, either, and we see it for what it is, a PR move and only a PR move. Still, with the attention being paid to the event on the internet one would think that the USEU power structure is well aware of exactly what was withdrawn and to where and they also know that the withdrawn units did not stand down in the least and are fully manned and ready to fight at a moment’s notice.
As an aside concerning OSCE. A concerted grass roots effort in Novorossiya has begun about ten days ago to ID each and every OSCE operative in Nororossiya, photo, name, nationality, shoe size, everything. As a result of this effort for the last week and more OSCE has been noticeably absent from any bombardment sight and in general is reporting what they ‘see’ and hear from their primary locations, not in the field. When they were in the field before, if one looks at the quite numerous photos and videos of their actions one can not help but notice that none of them seem to have anything beyond a note pad and a cellphone camera with which to make their determinations, and they do make them often, as to who shot what and where. It has been patently obvious from the very beginning of OSCE presence in Novorossiya that they have an agenda and are following that agenda to the letter.
The events down here were as you know interesting. We are now almost a year and a half in to being a part of Russian Federation. Many things have changed, most for the better, some not. We are under two different local governments in this peninsula, ours, The Federal City of Sevastopol consisting of the entire Sevastopol Region, and the rest of the peninsula, The Autonomus Republic of Krimea, with their government based in Simferopol. In the next days I will write a somewhat detailed synopsis of the changes, good and bad, down here but suffice it to say that the roads are still hideous, the electric supply is much more reliable and for the last year has not gone out unless there was a major or minor repair being done and those outages are announced on the local news. Water is more reliable also but I’m still changing our primary filter every two months, the old pipes throughout the city are full of rust and debris. The Army worked all winter building a 2 meter feed system to Inkerman which went a long way to solving supply problems. Officialdom is still Byzantine, nothing new there, it’s just a change of the rules and regs they use. That, too, will be covered in the synopsis.
David. I do not know if those two banks are still working here or not but I think not in regards to normal banking services. All banks closed down here for a few weeks after we joined RF and many new ones immediately started to open, especially after the banking sanctions from USEU were put in to affect. I have an idea that the pedigree of most, if not all, of the banks now in operation here is not questionable but perhaps interesting. USEU made very clear threats to Russian and international banks as to the repercussions that would apply to them if they operated in this peninsula. I will simply say that we in this peninsula and this berg are resourceful, for instance in regards to mail among other sanctioned items. I can not send so much as a postcard to EU, US, Australia, Japan and such, the card will be returned from the country of destination without a doubt. I still get all my mail and all my parcels and all my hobby goodies, regular as clockwork. I will of course not detail how this mail system works.
We do tell our friends up north that huge numbers in the west support them, which is very true. We do not tell them of those who do not support them and those numbers are huge also. They thank all for their support, it is very much appreciated. The struggle for freedom goes on and it will be a long and costly struggle. Make no mistake, there are units, many units, in UAF that can and do fight very well and very hard but I have no doubts that in the end we will see victory for Novorossiya.
Thanks, Auslander, for the updates. Good to see around here again.
Auslander, thanks so much for your illuminating post. Who knows, maybe the ‘vacationers’ will acquire some sense of shame/fear of being on the wrong side of history/Givi Cossack dancing on their chests (with more-than-usual emphasis on the foot-stomping bit..:)
Looking forward to reading much more of you.
If you are in Crimea, farther up this comment section is a story of two Russian banks basically supporting the Ukrainian side, working as a fifth column so to speak. Is that true?
David George, I know it sounds fantastic. I’ve been following the story for some time, but only have one link I can put my finger on right now. http://rusvesna.su/news/1436962801
Apparently bank principals are disloyal to Russia and loyal to either Ukraine or US.
Thank you Penelope, I read a poor translation but get the gist of it as above. It seems to me the most dangerous war is the financial war, and Russia does not seem able to free itself from the dollar. I live by sheer luck as a beneficiary of the American system which is turning into a horror show. I don’t understand how smart people can allow bankers to pretend that financial fascism somehow brings common good. The state’s only true control comes from control of its money, which is the oxygen for its economy. (It is the middle of the night here, I had better stop before I say something more stupid!)
Dear Auslander,
Wonderful to have you back here – hope all is well with you and family. Thank you for the two updates – very interesting. God bless and protect all those in the Donbass and Crimea.
Look forward to your fuller updates shortly.
Rgds,
Veritas
Please, tell ALL the people in Dombas, and in the cities under this ferocious bombing that even in Canada there are people who follow the situation without being influenced by the fascist propaganda of our Gov., and they pray it may come to a victory for the militia. I have started studying Russian since the beginning of 2015, and i hope one day to come and visit Novorussia.
Я не работаю, но я изучаю новый язык, русский язык!!!!
My response to Martin Stone and Eimar
I must confess that I am amazed and somewhat shocked by so much ignorance with respect to alternative pathways of transcendental knowledge away from the organized religions. It seems as if these “Herren” (Gentlemen) have never heard of human Gnosis or Neoplatonism from which Early Christianity emerged, just to revive the historic knowledge of these gentlemen on some basic facts.
And of course I can mention all the New Age teachings also known as Modern esotericism that go back to te Theosophic society.
And if this all does help these gentlemen on their way (auf die Sprungen hilft), then I invite them whole-heartedly to visit my website
http://www.stankovuniversallaw.com
for more spiritual enlightenment beyond the iterative political discussion on this and many other websites, where you can learn much more about the over-arching spiritual-energetic dimension of all events on this planet.
With best regards
Dr. Georgi Stankov
Early Christianity was actually perverted by Neoplatonism and Gnosticism, it was not founded from it.
Augustinianism (Fourth Century) may be rooted in Neoplatonism/Gnosticism/Manichaeism but certainly not the teachings of Jesus nor his early followers.
Jesus was a preacher of righteousness. Jesus was a preacher of “hear and do.” Jesus preached things like, “die to the world that one may live,” “cleanse first that which is within,” “keep his words and do what he says,” “follow him,” “count the cost, build your house on the rock, don’t look back,” “love fulfills the law” etc.
The Gnostics/Neoplatonists on the other hand taught that hidden knowledge was what brought salvation, not righteousness. In fact Gnosticism espoused an inherent dualist view of reality where the spirit was seen as distinct from matter, matter which was viewed as base/corrupt. Thus the goal of a human being was to gain insight into the spiritual by learning to detach from that which is base, the focus being on some mystical insight as opposed to Christianity’s “do what is right by yielding not to temptation.”
Early Christianity taught that the problem with evil men was “choosing to do evil” (rooted in iniquity within) with the solution being “repentance and faith” (ie. forsaking evil and walking in compliance with the righteousness of God/walking in the Spirit).
Gnosticism taught that the problem with evil men was “lack of knowledge or insight into reality” something which was generally solved through the apotheosis of the neophyte. A teaching which has been dressed up in a symbolic language in the many different “Mystery Schools” including the Blavatsky’s Theosophical Society (a school which you made reference to).
The events in Ukraine are just a symptom of the ongoing iniquity in men. Men who continue to reject the simple teachings of Jesus Christ and refuse to “love one another as I have loved you.”
1Jn 5:1 Whosoever believeth that Jesus is the Christ is born of God: and every one that loveth him that begat loveth him also that is begotten of him.
1Jn 5:2 By this we know that we love the children of God, when we love God, and keep his commandments.
1Jn 5:3 For this is the love of God, that we keep his commandments: and his commandments are not grievous.
1Jn 5:4 For whatsoever is born of God overcometh the world: and this is the victory that overcometh the world, even our faith.
The games of men are vanity. Yielding to to the will of God through repentance and faith whereby we become a doers of righteousness and thus lights in a wicked and corrupt world reaps eternal life.
Reply to Scott Wilson,
I am now even more amazed about the crap that some people project onto history in this particular case on the history of Christianity. Free blogs on the Internet have become an open door for ignorant people, besides despicable anonymous Internet trolls, whose only purpose is to disseminate and celebrate their inner confusion and profound stupidity with impunity. In a proper university discussion they will go under without mercy. No wonder the Internet was created by the dark secret services of the Empire of Evil in this form as to mire humanity. And it almost succeeded with a few exceptions.
However, it will be waste of time for me to teach this Gentleman about true understanding of philosophy and Gnosis, also in the historic perspective. I would only make him aware of the fact that Neoplatonism is the direct line of philosophy from classical Platonism and the latter was developed several centuries before the Jesus myth was invented as a composite personality based on the vita of Apollonius of Tyana and one of his pupils from the Essenen school in Jerusalem, which he founded.
Another historic fact: Porphyry, the student and editor of Plotin’s Enneads, the founder of Neoplatonism, has shown in his books beyond any doubt that the early Christians plagiarized from his teacher and other Platonists and was since then the most hated pagan man by all late Christians fort his intellectual superiority. And after his death, Porphyry, who was an expert in Plato and Airstoteles, was plagiarized himself by all Church fathers. Even the CIA sponsored Wikipedia writes on this topic as follows:
“Porphyry is also known as an opponent of Christianity and defender of Paganism; his precise contribution to the philosophical approach to traditional religion may be discovered in the fragments of Philosophy from Oracles (Περὶ τῆς ἐκ λογίων φιλοσοφίας; De Philosophia ex Oraculis Haurienda), which was originally three books in length. There is debate as to whether it was written in his youth (as Eunapius reports[9]) or closer in time to the persecutions of Christians under Diocletian and Galerius.[13]
Whether or not Porphyry was the pagan philosopher opponent in Lactantius’ Divine Institutes, written at the time of the persecutions, has long been discussed. The fragments of the Philosophy from Oracles are only quoted (understand plagiarized) by Christians, especially Eusebius, Theodoret, Augustine, and John Philoponus. ”
It was Augustine who plagiarized the Neoplatonist Porphyry and Plotin and not the other way round. II would invite this Gentleman to read my philosophic book on
“Neoplatonism and Christianity”
http://www.stankovuniversallaw.com/neoplatonismus-und-christentum/
and here excerpts in English:
http://www.stankovuniversallaw.com/2012/06/neoplatonism-christianity-serial-1/
if he wants to acquire true knowledge about the history of early Christianity from an impeccable philosophical and gnostic point of view based on facts and true scientific methodology. But from there to enter the boundless area of true modern Gnosis, as developed by myself, will be another huge leap in conscious expansion which may be too much for this gentleman.
With best regards
Dr. Georgi Stankov
@ Dr. Georgi Stankov
Are you the famous professor who participated in this interview “The Ascension of Gaia and Humanity to the 4th and 5th Dimension at the Stargate 11.11.11.” ?
http://www.ashtarcommandcrew.net/profiles/blogs/a-special-interview-with-the-arcturians-the-countdown-has-begun
And if so, could you please tell me who are the Arcturians you were talking with, as I didn’t understand very well from the interview of Dr. Suzanne Carroll other than that she is channelling them, or something like that. From what I read there they talked a lot with you about the Stargate 11.11.11. and the light workers of the Planetary Ascension Team (PAT). I am also interested in S-F, am a great fan of Star Trek – ‘Next Generation’ and ‘Voyager’ – not so much of Stargate, although I really loved the first movie with the boy-Pharaoh who was really an Alien, I thought it was really ground-breaking.
I believe you said in that interview that great planetary changes and natural catastrophes will occur when the first mass Ascension of light workers will take place; did those changes happen or were they just perceived as such by the Ascended ? The Arcturians’ answers, I’m sorry to say, were very fluid and ever-shifting (just like they thought Creation was), probably due to their living in the No Time. So I would really appreciate if you could give here a brief overview of their situation and relation with humanity, because there is too much to read and sometimes such information goes right over people’s heads, as someone complained in the comments section at that article.
The spiritual discussion has gone far afield, and certainly is winging over my head. I do respect the beliefs of all expressed, and would like to add one thought. It seems to me that Jesus was teaching ethics and love as a necessary platform for higher understanding of creation and our place in it. His teachings can be true and helpful on many levels, and pertinent to many stages of life and realization. I think he was teaching quantum physics as well. I watched this video recently, and realized how well my passion for science and spirituality converge. Biometrics fits quite well with Tibetan Buddhist teachings. If consciousness creates physical reality, condensing energy into matter, perhaps we should meditate on a world of well being and brotherhood more, and get less fascinated with the conflict and duality which our senses perceive. I realize as I write this, how I am advising myself, however, I hope you enjoy the 2 part video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI_F4nOKDSM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw55BsToVZM
Lets visualize a world of cooperation, peace and happiness for all beings.
Attention guys do not know what has all this to do with the analysis by The Saker in this thread on Novorossiya. If the thread would have been about religion, spirituality and all that, I understand that it could have resulted in something like this, but I see no reason to discuss this issue in this thread.
As some commentators who usually change the subject have taken the opportunity to comment on this subthread, and the other commentators are unknown in the blog, except Robin Gaura, my smell of moderator can only see a relationship ( i.e. trolling ).
Please, try to stick to the topic of the thread, unless it is to provide a link to news of general interest.
This is the last comment on this topic I am going to approve. In case of comments in the same line, they will be sent to consideration of The Saker.
What are you a doctor off anyway.Yes,we should follow gnosis,new age or whatever other crap is out there but true path.look what it got west.lol.
It sounds to me like a another attack on Christianity.
Unfortunately, there’s a reason it’s called fishing, not catching–the bait needs to be taken, and that’s never guaranteed. After the latest hospital shelling and numerous M2A violations, I felt NVR totally justified to attack to clear the artillery doing the damage since Porky refuses to cease fire and withdraw it as M2A stipulates. Perhaps the withdrawal of small caliber weapons is only intended to look like a trap in preparation for just the sort of operation that will clear out Kiev’s heavy weapons so they can no longer shell the two major cities: “You (Kiev) refuse to remove your heavy weapons, so you force us to do that for you.”
I feel that something’s planned, and I’m not alone. But, all we can do is speculate since several possibilities exist. Perhaps more provocations of RS goading it to attack its erstwhile ally or a revolt by a major city?
The main issue with this idea, and you mentioned it in passing, is the shelling of the Donbass. How long will the people put up with the NAF doing nothing while the Ukie army and associated militias create destruction with impunity?
Interesting analysis. My guess is the ZPC/NWO strategy is the same, to continue using the Ukraine as a stick to hit at Russia with. But monkey wrenches have a way of getting in the works…
If the Ukraine does break up or go into civil war, it would benefit the people looking to get out, as well as the Novorussians (since the nazis would be occupied fighting for their own turf, rather than attacking Novorussia). With the nazis and porkshank’s people at odds, it means the ZPC/NWO wont have the forces necessary for a new offensive on Novorussia.
Further Info for Scott Wilson on Neoplatonists versus Christian plagiarists:
Against the Christians (Adversus Christianos)[edit]
During his retirement in Sicily, Porphyry wrote Against the Christians (Κατὰ Χριστιανῶν; Adversus Christianos) which consisted of fifteen books. Porphyry acknowledged Jesus Christ only as an outstanding philosopher. Some thirty Christian apologists, such as Methodius, Eusebius, Apollinaris, Jerome, etc., responded to his challenge. In fact, everything known about Porphyry’s arguments is found in these refutations, largely because Theodosius II ordered every copy burned in A.D. 435 and again in 448.[15][16][17]
Porphyry became one of the most able pagan adversaries of Christianity of his day. His aim was not to disprove the substance of Christianity’s teachings but rather the records within which the teachings are communicated.[18]
His criticisms may have targeted Christians more than Christ; he is reported to have said in another work (the Philosophy from Oracles): “The gods have proclaimed Christ to have been most pious, but the Christians are a confused and vicious sect.”
According to Jerome, Porphyry especially attacked the prophecy of Daniel because Jews and Christians pointed to the historical fulfillment of its prophecies as a decisive argument. But these prophesies, he maintained, were written not by Daniel but by some Jew who in the time of Antiochus Epiphanes (d. 164 B.C.) gathered up the traditions of Daniel’s life and wrote a history of recent past events but in the future tense, falsely dating them back to Daniel’s time.
Thank you Saker for your optimistic analysis. I see the situation in much darker colors.
The shelling and helplessnes militio to protect civilians is causing anger in both population and militias against Minsk 2. Also Zakharchenko and his group has been pushing for independence from Ukraine what population wants. That cause strains with Moskow.
ColCassad reports about interview with former head of spetnatz general Petrovsky that
1. there was an attack on a car of Zakharchenko’s secretary Filipovskaja than
2. there has been so many arrests amonk militias that Petrovsky claimed that the Ministry of Defence will be canceled (rebuked by Bashilin).
3. That Surkov came to Donetsk to sort out all the infighting and change defiant Zakharchenko for more pliable Xodorovsky (Vostok).
Also I listened to a speach of Zakharchenko where he says that DNR and LNR will keep following project Novorossia. And two days ago I found on Iandex news that in Moskow was arrested a head of speatznatz for promoting Novorossia. (I forgot his name, but he become the head after fight between Petrovsky and Zakharchenko in March).
Therefore I think due to 1. shelling of civilians nad 2. Moskow’s push to return Donbass into Ukraine, there is a lot of disunity, infiding and arms twisting.
This is perplexing. The main article says that “Putin and Zakharchenko have all the time in the world.” A golden trap has been set and they need to do exactly nothing to the end of time.
In the meantime, Auslander reports:
“The bombardments never stopped, not for a single day, from the signing through today. Like in April of last year and October of last year they slowed down a bit after the signing but they never stopped and every day it is a little more. Their targets are almost excuslively civilian living areas, private houses, shops, magazines, factories and businesses big and small, food kiosks and shops are prime targets, electric, water, gas and canalazation are also prime targets.”
A commenter named Erebus says, perhaps sarcastically, that in order to mainain the cool “all the time in the world” spirit, one needs supreme confidence, and he is reminded of Clint Eastwood’s famous line: “go ahead, punk, make my day”.
But in view of what Auslander and many other sources in situ are reporting, it looks for all the world as if the punk has not been intimidated by those daring words. I mean, the punk just keeps bombing with total disregard and gusto. And the Eastwood imitators keep on saying: “go ahead, make our day” and then proceed to turn the other cheek every morning.
Okay, I get it. What the Eastwood emulators have in mind is a full-fledged suicidal attack by the Punk.
But why would the Punk do that (or rather, why would the Punk’s American minders order him to do that) when he can just go on destroying, bombing and tearing civilians to pieces day after day from a safe distance? Why indeed?
It is impossible to understand why the Minsk agreement is so treasured in these parts, when one side makes it blatantly obvious it will continue to laugh at the agreement’s most basic request (a ceasefire). Can an agreement be said to continue to exist indefinitely in those conditions? Downtown Donetsk was the object of nasty artillery bombings a day or two ago. And on and on it goes. What does it mean that they have “all the time in the world”? Haven’t we read a few too many times about the imminent collapse of the Kiev regime? The regime has apparently been on the verge of collapse pretty much every day for the last year, and if past experience is any guidance, the imminence of this collapse may well last years, all the while responding to the “make my day” pathetic lines with yet another round of artillery over civilians.
Regarding the OSCE monitors, they don’t just have an agenda. There must be hundreds of intelligence-gathering agents among them.
This is generally an informative site, but the persistent optimism and belief in a cunning plan based almost exclusively on the idea that the thug regime will collapse on its own sometime soon, is in my opinion very unjustified. This rosy view persistently underestimates or completely forgets the extent to which we are dealing with colonial terror regime completely run and propped from the outside. Simply hoping that it will collapse will not make it collapse. Or if it does, it won’t replace it with anything better.
Stan
I report what I see or information that is relayed to us by people we have trusted with our lives. I do not report all that I/we know nor do I report anything that may help the enemy and that enemy includes Mr. Poroshenko. I also do not report things that may help our friends and comrades on any blog.
The term ‘all the time in the world’ is a phrase that can mean a few minutes, and few hours, a few days or a few months and longer. None of us are a fly on the wall and can overhear Mr. Putin and his advisors making their plans nor can we hear Mr. Poroshenko making his plans and getting his marching orders from Langley and DoS. Is there a ‘cunning plan’? I have no idea.
What I do know is Russia is not ready to go to war with USEU, not that EU has much of an army left but US surely does and that army is very experienced, very well trained and equipped and quite gung ho. The attacks that Russia has tolerated for the last two years have been serious, both economic and diplomatic. Not many decades ago such sanctions alone would have brought a visit from the ambassador of the country targeted by the sanctions with a note in his hand declaring war. Russia will not do this at this time. Since last March Mr. Putin has been backing and filling while he has working mightily to arrange alliances, mainly economic as far as what has been publicly announced. Do you really think China is so foolish as to not recognize what is blowing in the wind towards them? Do you think China is not aware that if Russia and Russian Federation falls their entire north flank will be open? The world is changing as we speak and in the end the changes will be cataclysmic to say the least. Think 1914-1918, the Age of the Death of Empire for a similar time and event.
Each and ever death in this hideous war in Novorossiya is a tragedy. Each and every death in this war weighs on the commanders, the field grades, the Rota grades, and the soldiers at least on our side. There is nothing we can do about the ongoing deaths and injuries both to civilians and our soldiers. However, no matter how hideous it is to see children, women, men, grandfathers and grandmothers dead and wounded in the streets, nothing must, or can, stop us from achieving the goal, and that goal is freedom from Ukraine for Novorossiya. Rest assured, we will never forget one single bullet fired at us, one single destroyed flat or house or magazine or water station, we will remember each and every one of them as we will remember each and every one of our soldiers and civilians who has fallen in defense of our people. The day will come when we will wreak vengeance on those who have done this to our people, but that day is not today.
Good points Stan.
But I think you are missing what’s happening with the Right Sector and in the West.
The RS are no longer under the junta’s control – they are openly opposing them. And informal reports (outside of MSM) suggest that the official purge by security/authority ( SBU ) is far from the truth: there is quite a bit of collusion, mainly through allegiance to the same oligarchs.
The Hungarians are becoming concerned about their Ukrainian brethren and stepping up border security as well as preparing for refugees.
Slovakia is gettin concerned too.
Soon the Poles will have to take action on their borders, as well as deal with fascist sentiment aligned with RS aims within their own population.
Which brings us to Germany – one of the main signatories to Minsk2. If they don’t act soon to force its implementation, they will see this cancer spread right into the heart of Europe.
The Baltics should also be alarmed – if their leaders had the brains to realise how easily this virus could spread.
Its now no longer just about NovoRussia – there is a second front opening up in the West.
So the junta is most definitely not in the same position of control as before.
Another coup is probably planned.
Auslander, I certainly hope you are right that the day will come when they will have to answer for these crimes. But the farther away that day lies, the less meaningful it will be. But in reality I am not even hoping for revenge, or even expecting any justice at the end of it. I know that in these cases the majority of the crimes go unpunished. What I really would like to see is something done now to prevent these crimes now. Novorussia has been bombed and suffering far too long. Enough. I perfectly understand that by themselves maybe they cannot do much about it at this point. But Russia certainly can and, in my opinion, should come to the energetic defense of its own kind. The endless inaction and pretense that Minsk is wonderful and holding healthy does nobody no good.
The possibility of war with the US is in a sense no longer possibility, in the sense that the US is clearly already at war with Russia in the Ukraine (low grade war). The possibility of the US getting involved in a full open confrontation with its own troops in the Ukraine fighting Russia, I find it difficult to believe they would be so insane. What is happening is an outrage. Russia can and should make a stand to prevent it.
We have been under serious DoS attack since late Sunday which got worse Monday night, hence the delay in a reply.
The situation and events are far more complicated than one would think. Russia will not attack USEU, such an attack would make zero sense let alone the ramifications of such an attack. Russia will not overtly and militarily help Novorossiya although Russia has very clearly said that Novorossiya will not fall. You can extrapolate those statements as far as you wish.
Half the purpose of the bombardments is to goad Russia in to sending her army in to Novorossiya. We know this, Ukraine knows this and Langely knows this. That is not going to happen. Voentorg is operating well at this time. NAF are very well trained and organized now and I have no doubts that there are advisers and trainers from RAF handling a lot of the training plus I’m sure that intel is passed on to NAF hourly. That is the extent of what Russia will do baring a horrendous attack from Ukraine that results in catastrophic civilian casualties.
OT
Using Firefox for reasons that Yandex is not working 100 per cent for me..
I tried to access Saker blogs, all of them and got a message from…..
Yahoo. i’m apparently not authorised to access these sites.
phew, they must be running scared.
so much for the much vaunted freedom of speech…eh?
Just what I suspected…
Did you notice at about 8:20 into the video, our man with the camera got a brief glimpse inside the fancy tent everyone was standing around? It only lasted for a second or two, but it was long enough to see, there wasn’t any supplies of food in there! No wonder nothing was happening. And no wonder the goon in fatigues was trying to get rid of the camera, because they don’t want for the world to find out what utter hosers they are!
Facts, logic and common sense once again on the Saker’s side. It will be a slow , painful “life” for Ukrainians. Ukraine as a country likely will disappear…who knows for how long. It won’t be first in history of that land ( it’s difficult to call Ukraine an independent “country”, never has, and probably never will).
Shariy rocks as usual. Thought he was in Italy…in Russia now?
There is lots of talk about “nazis” , e.g. de-nazification etc. , which resembles disinformation by the zionazi’s who are exploiting ( through the virtual monopoly on the mass news media under their control) the dumb ukronazi wannabes to hide behind . Even more important than to de-nazify is to deal with the zionazi cabal that’s been pulling the strings from behind the scenes, like they’ve done in 1917 in Russia, and before and after that elsewhere in the world, Euromaidan and various color revolutions being the latest examples.
De-nazification will only put down the visible fires. Letting the arsonists to get away will allow them to strike again. Unfortunately the zionazi ( or as some correctly identify them as the judeo-masonic cabal and the AngloZionists ) problem is global and must be dealt appropriately . Infowar seems like the best weapon against them currently.
FarAwayObserver, You’re right it’s not enough to put out the fires; we do need to go after the arsonists. I suppose they’re at Bilderberger and Davos and BIS. And I suppose they could be arrested for conspiracy, if we have any good investigators.
But the headlong rush to the Order they are building could be arrested right now– just through a good-sized group of nations saying–
No more IMF/Fed system; we’ll issue our own currency w/o you.
No more WTO; we’ll arrange our own trade agreements piecemeal.
Those two things wd give every nation monetary and financial sovereignty. It wd enable them to protect their most important industries, keep jobs for their people, and produce for the internal market to satisfy at least food self-sufficiency for most. Today everything is slanted towards the export mkt in order to be allowed to print local currency. And jobs depend upon competing w the poorest labor or even prison labor. Madness. And it funnels wealth into the pockets of your arsonists, FarAwayObserver.
http://www.inclusivedemocracy.org/journal/vol11/vol11_no1_Are_austerity_policies_the_problem_or_is_it_Neoliberal_globalization.html
Excellente analyse!
Saker, I think you forgot about the U.S. If the U.S. wants Ukraine, I believe they have the resources to fully “take” and keep Ukraine in every respect. Having control of the Kiev government gives them great advantages because it gives them the cover that everything the U.S. does is portrayed as the will of the Kiev government, hence the Ukrainian people. Everyday, the U.S. is tightening it’s grip on Ukraine, infiltrating it thoroughly. I fear the U.S. will have Ukraine as a colony with only a facade of actual Ukrainians appearing to govern the nation. As masters of marketing they will sell their b.s. to the E.U. and if the E.U. hesitates about agreeing w/U.S. plans, the U.S. will threaten them. The U.S. remains the world’s only superpower at this time, despite China and Russia. Unless the U.S. falters and willingly releases its grip on Ukraine, Russia will have to deal with American/NATO military occupying Ukraine. I hope I am wrong as I oppose the Imperialist Americans and the Anglo/Zionist/Bankster bastards as much as anyone. But I think your analysis is flawed for ignoring America’s ability to call the shots in Ukraine. Poroshenko doesn’t matter, he is a stooge, the U.S. can find many others. And the economy doesn’t matter. A healthy economy is not a necessary requirement in order for a country to be occupied. The U.S. doesn’t give a damn about Ukrainians and their suffering. Militarily, the U.S. can station their forces in such a way that no big breakout of the Novorussians can occur. They can us their “Right to Protect” (R2P) phrase to intervene militarily if it is necessary The Ukraine military may be weak, but the U.S. can continuously train them and bribe them. A few dollars goes a long way in Ukraine and if enough money is offered many young Ukrainians will gladly enlist to fight Novorussiya.; especially if they are given U.S. equipment. In general I love your site. But in this analysis I think you left out serious consideration of the U.S. plans, desires and abilities. Also you were wrong in your previous posts about the U.S. not being a genuine nuclear threat to Russia. The documented U.S. drive for nuclear primacy proves they are a threat since by definition nuclear primacy involves a first strike nuclear attack. I know, for you that particular discussion is finished so I won’t press the issue. Anyway, keep well, I really love your site! And keep up the good work you do!
Vietnam, Venezuela and others in the South, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Cuba, other various African countries …
US can cause chaos but it gets in trouble trying to control and keep a place despite spending a fortune on it. It never seems to quite work out as well as hoped or expected for the US. In fact they keep losing wars; winning a war is not simply destroying a country.
As masters of marketing they are failures — it isn’t marketing with which they control EU nations but corrupt politics, and the people know it, and don’t trust the US at all — many despise it in fact, and it’s getting worse for the US all the time, and the US refuses to wise up and change its policies to improve its positions, or its economy.
@Craig
The link below would appear to indirectly support your analysis.
http://www.rt.com/news/310513-iran-defense-us-poland/
My own take? I think you greatly overestimate the political coherence of US foreign policy. It is becoming impossible to conceal that policy from the various stink tanks are nothing but pretexts for MIC contracts.
The rationale for AMD in Poland is farcical. Is Poland under threat from Russia? Or Iran? Both? Neither?
A ten-year old could pass this multiple-choice blindfolded.
So what gives? The Polish neo-con cabal (headed by the Sikbaums) did their job – and the MIC orders went out long ago. It wouldn’t matter if both Russia and Iran disappeared off the face of the Earth – they’d just stick a pin in the map and pick Hungary (‘the Hungarian threat’) . Or Germany (‘the German threat – history repeats itself!’) Heck, even Transcarpathia would do, (using Rp2 – not even NATO could sell the ‘threat’ routine there, though the NYT might try.)
Which leaves considerable gaps in NATO’s interoperability. The lack of political coherence (with competing factions within the alliance itself ) renders it highly susceptible to inefficiency and even breakdown. Contrast with the highly motivated, focussed and values-bound Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Or the Russian military’s growing appeal to native patriotism. The large unwieldy NATO cannot ever attain such levels of integration.
So I don’t really see the Ukraine – far too lawless, disenchanted and cynical lending itself to a NATO cake-walk. Even a NSA-comprehensive surveillance system would be prone to hackers, just as its military operations would be continually threatened by sabotage.
US policy without a well-coordinated, motivated and politically coherent NATO is virtually unenforceable.
And Russia still has the nuclear option.
And attrition – probably the favoured tactic – will face increasing opposition from funding nations.
Anonymous, The AMD in Poland is in case Iran launches a non-nuclear missile at the US! Seriously, that is the enunciated policy. US oligarchs don’t care who knows they are ludicrous liars.
The differences between Russian culture and Western American-led culture are the differences between GMO food crops and normal food crops. The abnormal GMO seed has been genetically altered so that a new seed much be purchased every year as it does not reproduce itself. The normal seed reproduces itself year after year, no cost. With rice this difference is very clear as rice itself is the seed and the crop.
The GMO seed eaten enters the host be it human, animal or insect, and repairs the needed life mechanisms of the host, changing the function of each one it nourishes in this way. after enough life changing GMO produce has been eaten, the ability of the host to reproduce stops.
This does not happen with normally seeded food crops. Reproduction does not stop.
Compare the health and the strength of the Russian population to withstand enforced injestion of the abnormality that Nazi-ism, pure fascism, represents and the abnormal society it produces, to that of say the present American society on the verge of collapse as the numbers on the amount of increase in childhood starvation in America attest. The old belief that our children are our future has been, in America, reversed to the corporation is our future, being the most inhuman representation of life we presently manufacture as a species.
The new USA effort to sell genetically modified organism rice to those many starving is simply another means of reducing global populations so that the American hegemony can more easily control those left.
I furthermore suggest that the new crop circles on Russian cropland are messages we do not yet understand from life found in outer space. At the times of the UFO sightings it was found that the vehicles and the life inside of then were able to decommission nuclear detonations from afar.
To the American military committed to managing human life through rabid fear alone, the “alien” “invasion” is to be exterminated, not understood. See the documentary “Project 51′ made by James Allen Higgins, from the SCAD Art and Design group in Savannah, GA,USA. He was assassinated for it, dying horribly filled with heavy metals in December 12, 2013, on campus.
One of the three such identical deaths that same year.
Majo, you said, “The abnormal GMO seed has been genetically altered so that a new seed much be purchased every year as it does not reproduce itself. The normal seed reproduces itself year after year, no cost.”
You are describing the seed of hybrid plants, which WILL reproduce itself ONCE, usually– but not again. Agribusiness generally buys new seed anyway, although backyard gardeners enjoy saving seed from non-hybrid plants.
Most GMO seed still reproduces itself, although they are tinkering w something called a “terminator” gene, which would prevent that. The trouble with GMO seed is that it is linked to tumors and reproductive problems in test animals and in farm animals fed GMO grain & soy.
In humans there have been cases of life-threatening respiratory illness.
The use of GMO seed increases yield for only a season or two, after which yield returns to normal. Higher inputs of fertilizer & pesticides are required. Monsanto’s Roundup is documented as one of the most toxic substances & most of their seed is to be used with it. The whole point is that plants from their seed do not die from the use of Monsanto’s Roundup, but the weeds do (for a few years), reducing the labor of weeding & losses from weeds crowding out crop.
The means by which Monsanto’s Roundup-ready plants resist the pesticide is that they take up less minerals, which makes for nutritionally-impoverished eating.
Although the seed reproduces itself, Monsanto does not permit seed-saving & has repeatedly ruined neighboring farmers where unwanted pollen has contaminated their fields.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/gmo-soy-accumulates-carcinogenic-formaldehyde-game-changing-study/5463241
http://nsnbc.me/2013/11/27/monsanto-tpp-global-food-dominance/
This link is about involuntary permanent sterilization caused by a gene, epicyte which can be added to plants. I have seen the full research on this; it’s real. http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2253086/pg1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA5yQ4_De_M video on epicyte corn
The differences between Russian culture and Western American-led culture are the differences between GMO food crops and normal food crops. The abnormal GMO seed has been genetically altered so that a new seed much be purchased every year as it does not reproduce itself. The normal seed reproduces itself year after year, no cost. With rice this difference is very clear as rice itself is the seed and the crop.
The GMO seed eaten enters the host be it human, animal or insect, and repairs the needed life mechanisms of the host, changing the function of each one it nourishes in this way. After enough life changing GMO produce has been eaten, the ability of the host to reproduce stops.
This does not happen with normally seeded food crops. Reproduction does not stop.
Compare the health and the strength of the Russian population to withstand enforced injestion of the abnormality that Nazi-ism, pure fascism, represents and the abnormal society it produces, to that of say the present American society on the verge of collapse as the numbers on the amount of increase in childhood starvation in America attest. The old belief that our children are our future has been, in America, reversed to the corporation is our future, being the most inhuman representation of life we presently manufacture as a species.
The new USA effort to sell genetically modified organism rice to those many starving is simply another means of reducing global populations so that the American hegemony can more easily control those left.
I furthermore suggest that the new crop circles on Russian cropland are messages we do not yet understand from life found in outer space. At the times of the UFO sightings it was found that the vehicles and the life inside of then were able to decommission nuclear detonations from afar.
To the American military committed to managing human life through rabid fear alone, the “alien” “invasion” is to be exterminated, not understood. See the documentary “Project 51′ made by James Allen Higgins, from the SCAD Art and Design group in Savannah, GA,USA. He was assassinated for it, dying horribly filled with heavy metals in December 12, 2013, on campus.
One of the three such identical deaths that same year.
Majo, I completely forgot until this minute that they are today debating another “Monsanto Protection Act”. This one would make it illegal to label foods as non-GMO.
Azov didn’t capture Shirokino because it is useless for them, better keep cool (apart from shelling) on their blasted vantage point, not to mention that Shirokino is just a heap of rubble full of mines. Interesting analysis, nevertheless. Thanks!