On February 15th, 1989 the last Soviet soldier crossed the (then) Soviet-Afghan border leaving behind over one million dead Afghans, several millions more wounded and displaced. This war cost the Soviet Union just under 14 thousand lives. This is, for sure, a disastrous tally and nobody in his right mind would attempt to qualify the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan as a “success”.
Still, while unequivocally a failure and a tragedy, looking back at the Soviet presence in Afghanistan a number of thoughts occur to me which now, twenty years later, make me reassess some of the things I previously had believed.
First, who were the good guys and who were the bad guys in this war? Remember how at the time the Western propaganda had it nice and simple: The Soviet Union was the “Evil Empire” while the Afghans were “Freedom Fighters”? The Soviet system was evil alright, but does that make the Afghan resistance “good”? In hindsight I am inclined to believe that this war was not a war between good and evil but between bad and much, much *worse*?
There can be no doubt at all that the Afghans were defending their own country, that they were fundamentally in their right to oppose the Soviet occupation of their land. But beyond that, what kind of Afghanistan did most – thought not all – of the Afghan resistance fight for? A grotesque medieval Islamic nightmare I would say, the same type of society which Wahabis have always – and still are – trying to establish. Does that sound like typical US propaganda? Sure it does! But whoever said that the US propaganda cannot, at times, say the truth? Why should the US propaganda use only falsehoods when the truth is even more appalling?
Of course, as always, the real picture of what was going on in Afghanistan in these days was more complex than “resistance vs Soviets”. The truth is that Afghanistan already had a strong secular left-leaning movement, that a lot of Afghan intellectuals supported the various secular regimes which preceded the Amin government and that even within the Afghan communist parties several distinct factions were fighting for power. The opposition to the Kabul government was also split into various factions, often along ethnic lines. Finally, Afghanistan has a long history of shifting alliances, of local warlords being bought-off by various forces, of endless infighting between clans, groups and local leaders. Very roughly, at least three main parties fought during the Soviet occupation: the Soviet backed communists, the forces under Ahmad Shah Massud in northern Afghanistan and the various Pashtun forces in the rest of the country. At the time, all of the resistance forces called itself “Islamic”, but in reality ethnicity played a huge role in their composition.
Ahmad Shah was a very interesting figure. He was arguably the single most effective Afghan commander, but at the same time he was also willing to negotiate with the Soviets. The Russian military had a great deal of respect for him and the Russian military intelligence service GRU secretly negotiated a ceasefire with Masud without the Kremlin being briefed about these talks. Later, the ceasfire was eventually broken under the joint pressure of Nadjibullah and (the then Soviet Foreign Minister) Eduard Shevarnadze. What the ideologues on both failed to see, did not want to see, is what soldiers on both sides understood very well: Masud and the Soviets did not have any other fundamental disagreement besides the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Even more importantly, they had a common enemy: the Wahabi Pashtun extremists which would later become the Taliban.
Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Soviet and, later, the Russians provided huge military and technical assistance to Massud and his movement which would eventually be re-branded as the “Northern Alliance”. Once the Soviets left Afghanistan they became natural allies of Massud and forces.
In contrast, the Soviets truly despised the Pashtun Islamists. They saw them as illiterate barbarians with plenty of courage, but very little tactical or strategic skills. They saw them as either very corrupt or wholly fanaticized. Sadly, they were essentially correct.
The Soviets also tried their utmost to bring Afghanistan into the modern world: they built schools, promoted equal rights for women, assisted in agricultural project and infrastructure development. They provided much needed health care for thousands of destitute people and they pushed literacy programs. None of that was enough to create a moderate or secular middle class.
On the down side, when their forces were attacked, the Soviet also mercilessly destroyed Afghan villages and killed a huge amount of innocent civilians.
The basic Soviet counter-insurgency tactics was composed of the following elements:
1) occupy mountain tops using helicopter-dropped forces, often Airborne troops.
2) organize raiding counterinsurgency “operational maneuver groups” typically staffed by Border Guard troops lead by KGB Spetsnaz officers
3) maintain an intelligence/recon force supported by a network of local agents. Both the KGB and the GRU used such networks
4) prepare major raids by covertly introducing Spetsnaz GRU operators deep inside enemy territory and then follow up with DShB (air-assault) forces inserted by helicopters.
5) maintain regular military forces in all the large cities and use them to maintain the main roads under Soviet control.
All in all, these were very effective tactics which mostly confined the Afghan resistances to remote mountain valleys. The Soviet 40th Army’s military performance in Afghanistan is vastly superior to the abject failure of the US/NATO force. Amazingly, but an under-financed, often under-equipped and under-staffed army of Soviet conscripts managed to achieve much more than the professional US/NATO forces. This is particularly true when one considers the fact that the Soviet had to fight both the Pashtuns and the Tadjiks and Uzbeks of Masud, whereas the US/NATO is only fighting the Pashtuns, clearly the inferior military force.
In many ways, the Soviet policies in Afghanistan were contradictory, and my point is not to make the Soviets look good, but to acknowledge one basic things: the Soviet were trying to prevent Afghanistan to become a base for the worst kind of Wahabi extremism. In contrast, the USA blinded by its hatred for the Soviet Union only succeeded in creating a monster which eventually – and inevitably – would turn against its former patron.
Almost the same situation was repeated in Chechnia. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the quasi total collapse of the state in Russia, the West threw its full support behind the Chechen separatists which were, I think, even worse than the Talibans. If the latter at least were sincere in their religious beliefs, the Chechens were first and foremost maniacal thugs, bloodthirsty butchers of the worst kind which only used Islam as a pious cover for their utterly amoral and perverted goals. I strongly suspect that some circles in Russia were actually interested in allowing the situation in Chechnya to degenerate into such a nightmarish chaos that nobody in his/her right mind would oppose the re-establishment of a powerful state. Once Putin came to power the Russian public essentially gave him ‘carte blanche’ to crush the Chechens, which he did very effectively by a combination of excellent military tactics and by simply buying off a good part of the Chechen leaders.
Though the “Chechen operation” eventually collapsed and, in many ways, made Russia not weaker but much stronger, there is no doubt that the West fully supported the Chechens, at least until 9/11. Only with the Twin Towers collapsing in flames did the Western elites suddenly loose their fancy for bearded gunman shooting at all sorts of “infidels” and “kafirs”.
But has anything really changed?
The US and Europe are still automatically supporting anybody and everybody who is perceived as “anti-Russian” (Georgia, Ukraine, Latvia, etc. etc. etc.), they are still bitter foes of Iran (a country which borders Afghanistan and which is more aware than any other of the Wahabi threat for the region and the world) and they are still calling Hezbollah “terrorist” even though any logical analysis can only lead to the conclusion that Hezbollah is a national liberation movement and the strongest force to oppose the various Al-Qaeda franchises in Lebanon and the rest of the Middle-East. Instead of reaching out to its natural allies in its war against Islamic extremism, the West is trying to fight everybody at the same time abroad while giving up every civil right one by one at home.
That amazing Western blindness, arrogance and crass ignorance is really the most powerful weapon the Wahabis have in their “arsenal”: as long as the West will continue to pursue imaginary enemies its real enemies will have all they need to strike at it, again and again.
As the so-called “redirection” has shown the so-called Global War on Terror (GWOT) is nothing but a planetary wide exercise in fostering Wahabi terrorism. 20 years ago the Soviet withdrew from Afghanistan and the idiots in the CIA reported “we won”.
I wonder what they thought on 9/11 or if they even managed to connect the dots.
Probably not.
I still think the best move for the U.S. re:Afghanistan is to get out of Dodge.
Wahabism is crazy, I agree. But It’s their country and they can do what they want in it. Also, I doubt the Taliban had any clue what was planned on 9/11. They even condemned it when it happened.
By Invading Afghanistan Russia also created an unintended consequence by loosing. Namely, the Wahabists figured they were invincible. If the U.S. leaves (and I think it should) that idea will only be reconfirmed.
Still, you are right that the U.S. wants everything from everyone in exchange for nothing. Which makes cutting a square deal pretty much impossible.
@lysander: I doubt the Taliban had any clue what was planned on 9/11. They even condemned it when it happened.
I tend to agree with that. The link I make would between the Taliban and al-Qaeda is that they were generally allied, but that does not imply that the Talibans were privy to the most covert operations of al-Qaeda. But their condemnation of 911, I think that it was an attempt to deflect the inevitable retaliation.
By Invading Afghanistan Russia also created an unintended consequence by loosing. Namely, the Wahabists figured they were invincible
Which is kind of funny considering that the only capable enemy of the Soviets were the northern Tadkijs and Uzbeks and that the Taliban, even with the full help of Pakistan’s ISI, could not even take Kabul for three years after the Soviet withdrawal.
Some kind of ‘invincible’…
You overlook the role the US played into provoking the SU to intervening in Afghanistan.
As Brzezinski recently claimed, the CIA began to arm and fund Afghan reactionary groups, leaving training and logistics to the Pakistani ISI.
The Soviets entered the country as allies of the Afghan Communist government. If the Soviets’ tactics contained the “mudjahidin”, the latter succeded in forcing the evacuation of loads of villages and created a network of camps in Pakistan as enormous reservoir of manpower and, ultimately, for the creation of the Taleban.
Afghanistan missed a unique chance to enter the modern world, and now it is the prey of corrupt warlords, fanatic warriors for a theocratic state, and imperialist mad dogs without a purpose…
I see no shift in the near future to this sad plight.
@Enrique: good points!
Thanks!
VS
I agree with Saker that Wahabi threat for the region and the world is considerable, though I would think that the USA tactics to use the Mojaheds against the USSR at that time was not that bad at all. After all the Mojaheds and Wahabists couldn’t have been compared with the Soviet threat to the USA.
It’s silly though to seriously consider the claims by Bzezinski and Co that the Afghan war brought the USSR to it’s knee. The old man just wanted to be remembered for something and there was nothing more rewarding than to make yourself to believe that you defeated the mighty empire.
Though it’s hard to explain how maintaining 100000 troops in Afghanistan during 9 years turned out to be devastating for the empire that had managed to maintain 4.5 mil troops all over the world during almost 50 years. As for the losses – 14000 during 9 years of the war is a lot. But is it devastating for a 4.5mil army? Current Russian army non combat losses are estimated in average 2000 men a year.
The USA has used all means to fight the empire so – using Osama looked pretty legitimate at that time. And the problems the US facing now with the Islamists has nothing to do with giving them training and weapons and support against the USSR and failing to control the movement afterwards. The problem is Israel.
Just imagine for a second – there is no Israel. And never has been. Just imagine that.
It looks like the day Israel was established was the day the US was doomed.
I think Israel uses the US as much as the US uses Israel. They are like blood brothers. After all, Israel is the biggest US aircraft carrier, isn’t it? And then Israel’s wars are very useful for the US military-industrial establishment, as it serves them for the practical use of new weapons. Just look at Gaza now, and DIME, phosphorous, flechettes, and all that. First time used in urban agglomeration, most of them. So now the US military know how to improve their use…
As for Afghanistan, it is a historical fact the US organized an anticommunist insurgency as much as they did later in Nicaragua. To that end they armed and trained with the Pakistan’s ISI courtesy a ragtag army of god freaks.
The Soviets made a huge mistake sending their troops in, because what had been so far a hopeless reactionary warfare against a progressive government won some legitimacy by fighting the foreign invaders, and the Afghan government lost its own.
A pity, as they had started to bring Afghanistan into a modern and egalitarian world, by legislating for woman’s equality, building schools and hospitals for everyone (gender and ethnicity alike).
The final victory of US funded warlords (although two years after the Soviets left) only brought misery, crime, and a misogynous theocracy.
The Taleban brought some order, but imposing one of the most hideous and backwards regimes in the world…
As I said, Afghanistan missed their unique, best opportunity to come out from political, economic, cultural and social underdevelopment and oppression.
And the US forgot all about them, as they did in Nicaragua, as soon as the red danger had been conjured up. Or at least until the drug business had actually dried up.
But that is another story.
@Enrique: “I think Israel uses the US as much as the US uses Israel. They are like blood brothers. After all, Israel is the biggest US aircraft carrier, isn’t it? And then Israel’s wars are very useful for the US military-industrial establishment…”
You are right – the US military-industrial establishment is pretty happy with any sort of war anytime, anywhere. Just like any military industrial establishment. But it doesn’t mean that it’s interests coincide with the US national geopolitical interests. To be honest – I think that the US military industrial establishment is in fact a fifth column in the States. What’s good for the industry – turns out to be pretty unhealthy for the country.
@alibi: It’s silly though to seriously consider the claims by Bzezinski and Co that the Afghan war brought the USSR to it’s knee. The old man just wanted to be remembered for something and there was nothing more rewarding than to make yourself to believe that you defeated the mighty empire.
I tend to agree with that. Zbig is a genuine looser, he never got *anything* right and he is one pompous ass too. Needless to say, he is a pathological russophobe whose viceral hate for anything Russian was the main impulse for pretty much his entire life. Sure, Zbig and the CIA cretins did all they could to distrupt Afghanistan, just as the Brits had in the 19th century, but that does mean that they really achieved anything. I would ‘credit’ them with making the situation bad enough to force the Soviets to go in. But did the war in Afghanistan really ‘bring down the Soviet empire’ as the flagwavers in the West say? No, of course not. Alibi is 100% correct. In fact, the bad old USSR could have eaten up another 2-3 Afghanistans without collapsing.
What brought down the USSR was the conspiracy of the CPSU to split up the USSR into 15 mini states which each would be ruled by the former Soviet elites (the Nomenklatura). That, and a fundamentally unviable political and economic system. The USSR was bankrupt as much ideologically as it was financially. But militarily? Nah, I don’t think so.
Least of all did a buntch of backward religious crazies “defeat the Soviet Empire”.
Where I disagree with alibi is here:
the Mojaheds and Wahabists couldn’t have been compared with the Soviet threat to the USA.
The Soviet were RATIONAL and PREDICTABLE. That made them “good enemies”. The Soviets would not try something like 9/11 in 10’000 years.
I think that the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there.
@Saker: “The Soviet were RATIONAL and PREDICTABLE. That made them “good enemies”. The Soviets would not try something like 9/11 in 10’000 years.
I think that the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there”
I hope you are right and “the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there”
I really do. In that case mankind at most is risking to loose a few thousand of it’s members considering military capability of the Wahabis.
General Gromov – the commander of the 40th army when asked about military performance of his army in Afghanistan said – if there was an order to achieve a pure MILITARY defeat of the mujaheds or whoever else in Afghanistan that would have been achieved within a month. That would have meant – there would have been no any mujaheddine left alive, no would’ve been any resistance left since there would’ve been no source for that. The resources the Russian army had in Afghanistan would’ve allow it to eliminate any sort of resistance. ANY sort.
Of course it would have require to kill most of the population of the country. Terrorise or buy off the rest. But it was ACHIEVABLE. And it was achievable by the amount and military capability of the forces the Russians had in Afghanistan. So – if there was an order there would have been NO wahhabis anymore, NO mujaheddines, NO Al Qaeda, NO such country like Afghanistan. And if as you say : “the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there” the problem looks to be pretty manageable. Just burn the problem. The Russians had the capability but didn’t have the order. And of course the Americans have the capability to deal with the problem. There is no political will. Not yet.
So – comparing the two threats for the USA – the Taliban and the Russian treat I still think that Taliban is a threat that is much more manageable for the US than Russia.
@alibi: I hope you are right and “the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there”
I really do. In that case mankind at most is risking to loose a few thousand of it’s members considering military capability of the Wahabis.
(…)
And if as you say : “the Wahabis are currently the single worst threat for civilized mankind out there” the problem looks to be pretty manageable. Just burn the problem
As Menken once wrote “There is always an easy solution to every human problem – neat, plausible and wrong.”
“Burning the Wahabis” is exactly that kind of (psuedo)’solution’. The Wahabi threat is not a military threat, and the ‘solution’ to this problem is not a military one.
What is Wahabism? First and foremost Wahabism is the attempt by a group of people to impose their vision of Islam not to the non-Muslim world, but to rest of the (non-Wahabi) MUSLIM world. For example, Wahabis are a far bigger threat to the Shia than they are to the formerly Christian, and now essentially pagan, West.
True, the military capabilites of the Wahabis are minute, but that is not where the danger is. It is their subversive capability, which is immense, in particular when fed by obnoxious imperial, colonial and Zionist policies, that the real threat lies (Look at Western Europe today – it is filled with para-Wahabi organizations)
The only solution to Wahabism is to denounce it for what it is and to convince those who might be attracted to it that its ‘solutions’ are also ‘neat, pausible and wrong’.
The Papacy, surely one of the worst totalitarian ideologies in human history, was not defeated by killing all Roman Catholics, but by de-fanging it by means of denouncing its totalitarian nature (the modern Papacy is but an empty shell of its former, nasty, self). I would add that the rest of the Christian world can now breathe a sigh of relief now that Roman Curie cannot order any further genocides ad majorem Dei gloriam as it used to do during the 1000 years of its existence (the Papacy really was born somewhere in between the 9th and 11th century).
Wahabism is an ideology which needs to be defeated ideologically.
However, when this ideology gains a foothold somewhere and when it takes on a military/criminal aspect, it needs to be defeated militarily (as was the case in Chechnia). But that is only a local solution to a local problem. The real solution has to be ideological.
Peace all,
Saker you are quite right in what you have stated regarding Wahabism. Wahabism is something which is an off shoot from the mainstream Islamic teachings and tries to dress themselves in the garb of ‘pure’ Islam. They believe in no reformation or progression in terms of Jurisprudence. It is an ideology which was first founded by Ibne Tamiyyah and then later revived by Abdul Wahab.
If the Sauds had not collaborated with Abdul Wahab then today Wahabism would have been an ideology forgotten in the sands of arabia. Their collaboration poured in the resources required for the spread of this ideology. After the takeover of the Holy cities and making Wahabism the way there this ideology was then propogated using the Saudi oil money. The Dawah of the Wahabism is well very funded and has a great reach due to the people backing it. The Sauds used their money to indoctrinate the Muslims around the world with this ideology and hence spread it to even parts of Western world and the Far East.
To defeat Wahabism, you have to take on the intellectual route. Once a person has studied Wahabism it is very easy to break down their ideology and refute them. They are slowly being countered and being pushed into the corner but their radical approach and their love for Jihad is something which makes alot of people think twice before picking on them. They have removed many leaders from the other sects of Islam that have opposed them most importantly the Shia ones.
Regards
Ayaz
I think we shouldn’t overvalue the Wahabbi threat. In fact it is too nasty to get too far. Even if they may win some support, they quickly are at odds with the mainstream Muslim society, anywhere except in Saudi Arabia, where they achieved a status of state religion.
Take Chechnya. When Chechnya’s Dudayev succeeded with his nationalist coup, he managed to rally most of Chechens, especially when the ineffectice Yeltsin’s troops were sent in.
But after two years on de facto independence, when Basayev’s Wahabbis imposed their theocratic rule, they quickly ran against the Sufi majority, who rallied the Russians as they came back.
It is true that Putin is not Yeltsin, and that he was serious, but he wouldn’t have got such an easy victory if the population hadn’t stayed aside or even supported him. The majority of the Chechens preferred the Russians!
Kadirov’s sudden pro-Russian position is easily explained form that point of view.
I agree the Wahabbis are defeated ideologically, not militarily. Even more: they are self-defeating, as their rule turns absolutely intolerable for everyone…
The Talbans’ relative success may be explained because they are not Wahabbis, but rather followers of the Deobandi school, similar but not identical. This theocratic branch also had a tradition with the Pashtun, both in Afghanistan and in Pakistan/India.
We should consider that these political religious movements are specific to their traditional regions, and very difficult to export, as they collide with other traditions, usually not so stiff…
What makes me certainly uneasy is the use the Empire has been doing of these freaks: first as “hammer of heretics”, and now as the ready-made excuse to curtail rights and liberties worldwide in the name of the “war against terror”.
And so we come back to the military-industrial establishment. Of course they aren’t interested in peace! Which is why they continued conspiring against Russia even if the Cold War was over, and as they noticed their business and domination was getting thinner, they invented “terrorism” as the new global evil. Now that even this hoax is discredited, they were seeking for new excuses such as Iran’s nukes, all the while encouraging Israel to test the metal.
Perhaps we’ll enjoy a pause, now that finances are in disarray. But perhaps it is all the more dangerous, if the imperialist logic finds out that they need a big adventure to recompose their profits.
By then the Wahabbis may have been thoroughly forgotten, and we’ll be told of other demons!
@Enrique: “”I think we shouldn’t overvalue the Wahabbi threat. In fact it is too nasty to get too far…”
I agree with that. Add to that their low military capability and calculate the risks. They are still a threat no doubts but I would think that the threat is still manageable for the West.
@Saker: “…It is their subversive capability, which is immense, in particular when fed by obnoxious imperial, colonial and Zionist policies, that the real threat lies (Look at Western Europe today – it is filled with para -Wahabi organizations)”
Even if they can manage to deliver a few blows to the West now and then it’s, really just statements that they exist. It’s nasty – sure but still manageable for the western governments.
@Enrique: “The majority of the Chechens preferred the Russians!”
I really doubt that.
The factor that the Chechen population stayed aside or even supported Putin was achieved not because they just felt like that. They simply were left NO alternative. It was ether that or get killed. And it took a lot of killing for the Russians to deliver that message. And military capability of the Chechens was way stronger then the Taliban fighters. The Chechens had enough weapons to arm a few divisions including tanks and own air forces, loads of ammunition, all that left for them thanks to Yeltsin’s governing. The majority of the Chechens had military training the very same training the Russians had. The Chechens had their own man Beresovski as a chef of Russian National Security Council. What else do you need – plenty of weapons and a mole in Kremlin.
And the first war was lost not because the Russians were military incapable – there was NO will. Nether the government nor the majority of Russians had realised at that moment WHO they were dealing with. And there was the same Russian army that fought the first war for years and lost and the same army had finished major military resistance and retook Chechnya within a few month AFTER the Russians had realised WHO they were dealing with and HOW the problem had to be dealt with.
And yes – there was plenty of blood on both sides.
What I’m trying to say is – once the West realises that Taliban is a REAL threat, not just a cause to achieve their own agenda in the region – it will be a matter of a few month to bring Taliban to a state of insignificancy.
@alibi – “- once the West realises that Taliban is a REAL threat, not just a cause to achieve their own agenda in the region – it will be a matter of a few month to bring Taliban to a state of insignificancy.”
Taliban might not have the capacity of the Chechens or the Uzbeks but what they have is the NWFP and the Pasthuns. No one has ‘ruled’ that area in the last 1000+ years. The mighty British Empire was not able to do it. Any blow the West inflicts on Taliban in Afghan they will retreat to the NWFP and wait out the threat. They may be weak but they are not stupid. IMHO.
And then they have the support of the wretched ISI.
Enrique, I really appreciated reading your input which seems to me to be pretty insightful.
Personally I cannot see Wahhabism, and its Jihadi offshoots, like Al Qaeda, taking over the Muslim world based on its own merits which are pretty primitive(I formerly lived in Saudi Arabia for three years where I got my own taste of Wahhabism).
The primary reasons behind the spread of Wahhabism have been Saudi/Gulf funding and outside imperial interference in the region.
I still wonder if there could be an obscure CIA/Mossad/or other intelligence agencies’ connection to the Al Qaeda leadership, which could possibly be discretely funded by the war for profit weapon’s industries, in order to keep this so-called “War on Terror” ongoing while the West continues attempting to establish its imperialist political aspirations in the region…
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@Shashank: “Taliban might not have the capacity of the Chechens or the Uzbeks but what they have is the NWFP and the Pasthuns. No one has ‘ruled’ that area in the last 1000+ years.”
I really can only speculate here. But my strong believe is that Taliban is just a card which is played by a few different forces in the US to keep general public scared, to keep the war going, to keep getting contracts. All this because Taliban has NEVER been considered a REAL treat to the West. And my strong believe is that IF and When Taliban is considered a REAL treat to the West it just will cease to exist. I’m not going to take your time trying to explain to you the capacity of the Western military machine. The military means available to deal with problems like mountain hideouts, Pakistani ISI and so on are really superior to the obstacles. They are not being used so far just because there are forces in the US who simply want to keep the whole thing going. There are a few different forces there including the oil companies still hoping to build a pipeline through Afghanistan, there is an Israeli lobby trying to achieve their twisted agenda in the region. And there is the military industrial establishment people who want to keep any war going as far as it’s possible.
And I the fact that “…No one has ‘ruled’ that area in the last 1000+ years…” means that no one really felt like getting deeply engaged with opposing forces. And the opposing forces for the Brits back in the 18th would be the Russian Empire. And for the Russians back in 1980th it would be the West.
So – the Afghan phenomenon of keeping the Empires defeated one by one has nothing to do with the actual Afghan resistance. Either force the Brits and the Soviets had the capacity to annihilate the country. The reason it hasn’t been done – the opposition much greater than the mujaheddins or pushtuns or Taliban.
very true,I agree with Enrique , Brezenski prefered a broken Soviet union , than some stirred up Muslims , as he said it in his interview .
I was referring to the second war. The theocracy imposed by Basayev and others became intolerable for the majority of the Chechens, of a Sufi tradition.
The story of the Kadyrov clan is very meaningful. Kadyrov senior was very influential, in fact the Mufti. They fought the Russians when the agenda was nationalistic, but when it became a Fundamentalist one they changed sides. The West dismissed this fact by presenting Kadyrov as a straw man. In fact his new allegiance didn’t square the previous media myth that all Chechens had to be anti-Russian by definition and in all circumstances. So they just misunderstood the new situation.
And forgot that the Kadyrov clan is the largest and the most important in Chechnya!!!
If you re-read the Russian strategy in 1999, you’ll find out that they weren’t seeking an occupation of the whole of Chechnya, but just to create a security cordon. As they found little resistence, and that most of Chechens let them through without fighting they pushed on till Grozny, where Basayev’s men opposed some resistance before fleeing to the mountains.
The Chechens has shown during the first war that being killed wasn’t a deterrent, as long as they had a motivation and unity. But during the second round they were not ready to die to defend a regime they loathed. Which is why I said they preferred the Russians! In fact Putin combined military pressure with the promise of a very large autonomy and lavish reconstruction. And he delivered. Now Chechnya enjoys one of the the largest autonomies in the Russian federation, and a lot of investment has gone into reconstruction of the region and its economy. Kadyrov and Co. were well aware of their interests.
MARY: I still wonder if there could be an obscure CIA/Mossad/or other intelligence agencies’ connection to the Al Qaeda leadership, which could possibly be discretely funded by the war for profit weapon’s industries, in order to keep this so-called “War on Terror” ongoing while the West continues attempting to establish its imperialist political aspirations in the region…
Crystal clear!
And Alibi’s opinion on Taleban’s strengths is undeniable, as in military terms, neither Afghans nor others can oppose the military machines of the US, or the SU before, or Israel now. It is very simple: if the US had nuked Vietnam, they wouldn’t lose the war.
But of course even small resistances can benefit of the international balance of power and succeed against all odds. It is obvious that the US/NATO might destroy Taleban, but they aren’t interested in that. A permanent war down there for the time being might suit their interest better.
And even if they found it convenient, they would have to deal with the world opinion, as they might do it in a genocidal way, but as we have seen in Gaza brute force isn’t accepted by the world.
This makes me remember the Valkyrie opera, when even the father of the gods cannot do as he would please because he is tied by a warp of constraints.
Now neither the US nor Israel can use their whole military force because the cost for themselves would be suicidal.
So they maintain low intensity conflicts. For their industry and domination looks pretty good. If they can do it like in Afghanistan or in the OPT throughout the year far from the cameras, better. And if they do not succeed doing so and have to do it in full light, like Israel in Gaza, then they do it with a higher intensity to achieve their goals, but they pay a political price…
Folks, I think you are putting too much faith into bombs and lighting things up. Conventional bombs aren’t as effective in the mountains where guerrilla tactics are used. People are dispersed and are constantly on the move. You cannot afford dropping one bombs per person. Even if NATO wanted, they couldn’t finish out taleban by bombing them. If you really want to eradicate them, you go in, use guerrilla tactics against them which means a high risk for lot of casualties. You guys need to remember every bomb costs money.
And yes, the world doesn’t like pure brute force anymore because most everyone has dangerous toys now and once people get trigger happy about them the chances of a potential “all out shoot out” increases too. Guns are like any other machinery. They are as useful as their owner is skillful.
Personally, I still don’t have a clear picture in my head about this whole Afghanistan business. I am not completely buying the whabis being a danger argument either. If it were really the case, why not go to the heart of the beast and solve the problem in Sauidi Arabia?
~AnoNewYorkmouse
@Enrique: “The Chechens has shown during the first war that being killed wasn’t a deterrent, as long as they had a motivation and unity”
A will to fight to death depends also on the odds to survive. Unless you are on drugs or have nothing left to leave for – you want to live. There are other reasons why an individual may not care if he/she has a chance to survive a fight – revenge would be just one of them. But still – majority of people want to fight not to death but to a victory.
In the first war the odds for the Chechens looked pretty good which added a good deal to the strength of their resistance.
Plus – it was obvious that the Russians didn’t give a damn about keeping Chechnya in. They just had let go all of the 15 other republics without not just a fight but without any regrets. And I’m talking about overwhelming majority of the Russians.
They just wanted to get rid of all that ideological bullsh.t and move on with their own new lives.
The fact that the West failed to see the collapse of the USSR coming seems obvious even though they keep drumming themselves in the chests trying to establish who was first at beating the beast to death.
It fell apart bloodless and even peaceful ONLY because it was overlooked and thus uncontrolled and unsupervised by the West. And when the West had realised what was happening they stepped in with all their goodies. Chechnya was just one of them.
Gen Dudaev had announced Chechnya pure Chechen country from now on. Tens of thousand of Russian nationals were kicked out of the country, their property stolen, more that 20000 Russian civilian residents of Chechnya were killed. Thousands abducted for ransom got tortured got their limbs cut off and sent to their relatives to speed up the pay off or just became slaves.
Majority of the Russians in Russia just didn’t care – Russian nationals were discriminated in EVERY republic that got independency, so the major opinion in Russia was – get out of these countries get a new life in Russia and stop whimpering.
The first war was a war of the Russian nomenklatura not the people.
It’s a long story to describe what it took for the Russians to finally decide to go back and end the Chechen terror.
In the second war the Russians just didn’t want to take chances anymore – to win they had to break Chechens will to fight. The Russians know a lot about a guerrilla warfare they actually invented it back in 1812. And then they developed and expanded it during WWII. And they’ve been in Afghanistan. So they knew that you had to cut off an external support for the fighters, but most off all – a local support. There is only one way invaders can fight with local support for guerrilla fighters – total terror.
I know that it’s a known fact that it’s impossible to brake spirit of the entire nation. And that’s bullsh.t. It’s possible and it has been done before.
The Russians implemented tactics of “collaborate or get killed” They gave ultimatums to the elders in every village and town they approached and if there was ANY sign of resistance a single shot from a village – it got annihilated – the entire village, civilians who couldn’t manage to flee got annihilated also. Civilians who managed to escape immediate death were doomed to starve. Literally. There was federal supply of course the Russians weren’t monsters – In some places there were 3 day rations supplied once in a few month. And there were tens of thousands of people who got displaced and had to flee. But they no place to go. Civilians got abducted, tortured and killed in numbers. Non stop bombings, for months, curfews, check points, freezing cold, and hunger. Plus abductions, interrogations, torture, and killings for years.
The Chechens were pretty determent on the beginning of the second invasion. They kept saying that the Russians couldn’t get them no matter what. And the Chechens hate Russia by birth. And they are VERY proud nation and VERY determent and VERY brave and VERY good fighters.
And they stand up for their kin no matter what.
And by fall 2000 they began to crack. Because there was NO way out of that. Their fighters had no chance against determent army. They saw their kids die from starvation, their neighbours turned their back to them, because the neighbours had to survive themselves. They sold their kids to slave for food to other Chechens who refused to help for free anymore. The same Chechens who are known for willingness to kill for their countrymen, Chechen women worked as prostitutes for the Russians. Imagine that? In the country where a sister could get killed by her brother for being found libertine.
The elders in the villages had to refuse ANY support for the fighters to save their people. Actually – pretty soon people were hoping that the Russians would catch Basaev and others to end all that. But the Russians didn’t want to kill Basaev too soon. The national spirit had to be broken for real. There were many evidences that Basaev was allowed to escape when there was no escape for him. The Russians had to keep him on the run just like the West keeps Mr Bin Laden.
Kadyrov just was smart enough to realise that the Russians came back for real. And the Chechens who know their history know what that means. So – he collaborated. But then he begun to think that it was all over and he could have started his own game – then he got killed. Ramsan seems to be a bit smarter so far.
Finally, when Basaev, Hattab, Maskhadov and others served their time they all got killed one by one. All after years of “evading” the Russians and all by pinpoint strikes just like Dudaev earlier. Khadyrov simply hoped to live longer then them that’s why he went to serve for the Russians. I can’t imagine any other reason except for that and the money of course why would a Chechen of that calibre do that.
As for Afghanistan – the Russians could have easily doubled or tripled their forces there and achieve more success. They could have terrorised the country instead of building schools there. But they didn’t. Afghanistan wasn’t a place where their national interests were at stake. And the war wasn’t personal for them. Andropov began talks with Zia Ul Khak about a withdrawal back in 1982. It was the Afghan president who begged the Russians to stay. And same with Najibulla. Plus damn Russian stubbornness when it seemed humiliating for them to leave. But it was either terrorise the country to the point of despair or leave.
And you don’t need a bomb for every fighter in the mountains. There are other means. There is a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, there is biological warfare. How about getting an ordinary cholera outbreak like the mystery outbreak in Zimbabwe, or Ebola, or simple dysentery in the area. Or what deeply religious people would think if their eyeballs would start popping out.
And if you think that it’s impossible only because the international community would get shocked think again. They get shocked all the time – when the US used depleted uranium first in Iraq then in Europe. They got shocked about Abu Grabe and Guantanamo. Who cares. The disease could be blamed on the poor hygiene of the barbarians. And if not – the world is eager to forgive everything even Hiroshima if the intension was good.
Oh, your text is so apocalyptic that it leaves little room to reply. The worse, most of things you say are bitterly true. The world… who cares? Yes, in a last analysis.
There is only an aspect I beg to differ, and that is the birth hate of Chechens for the Russians.
In the first place there are the valley and the mountains. The Chechens from the valley accommodated always better, and they were even pro-Russians. Even before Yeltsin’s adventure, there was a small civil war, and the loyal Chechens were led by Ruslan Khasbulatov. You know that not all clans would follow Dudaev, and that he had to stage a coup to seize power. However he managed to get a measure of national unity around a nationalistic program when the Russian army came in.
The problem is that during the couple of years Chechnya enjoyed a de facto independence the Bassaev and the Hattab Wahabbies had imposed their terror, theocratic regime on all the other Chechens, who were Sufi and had nothing to do with the strict Wahabbism of import.
I know the counterinsurgency tactics of the Russian army during the second war weren’t amiable at all, but I still think you miss the aspect of reality of the anti-Wahhabi Chechens, who found Bassaev and Hattab even worse than the Russians, even if they didn’t like the Russians, and who opted for a neutral stance, i.e., a collaborating position.
The postwar years have shown this reality. Refugees have come back and claimed their property, Chechnya enjoys one of the widest autonomies in the RF, and it has been rebuilt.
I knew a Chechen woman who emigrated to the West, fleeing the Chechen misfortunes. She had her home destroyed during the first war, and had taken refuge with her children in neighbouring Ingushetia. He finally fled to Moscow, nota bene, even if she hated the Russians (or she said so to the Asylum authorities here to get her status), just before the second war, because she couldn’t bear the Islamist militias. The Russians in Moscow didn’t trust her and she eventually came to the West…
Enrique I agree with you that there were plenty of Chechens who wanted nothing to do with Basaev, and even Dudaev. Though I tend to think that opposition to Dudaev was pro Kremlin just in hope to get to the power themselves and not out of their attachment to Russia. You know of course that there are a few clans in Chechnya who compete in their fight for power and the time looked right for them to act.
Chechen hatred for Russia looks pretty natural to me though and I don’t blame them. And you are probably right saying that some of the Chechens would rather stay with Russia anyway. They are realistic enough to understand that the country can get in a state of complete chaos, add to that inevitable Uncle Sam involvement who wants to mess up the entire Caucasus region and you get a full bloodbath.
As for Afghanistan today – I’m really puzzled. When I see that NATO has about 50000 troops in Afghanistan then I tend to think what it’s for. The Russians had just over 100000 and couldn’t finish what they had started so – either NATO considers it’s fighters twice as good as the Russians or there is something else. And if the NATO fighters are so good why aren’t they fighting. They just have been camping in the country for 7 years – so what’s the strategy? To win there they need to fight. The victory is not on the agenda then. What is it?
alibi, everything you describe has been done to Kurds by Turkey over and over. No wonder there are so many Kurdish village guards attacking their own people… Currently Turkey is bombing villages in North Iraq (after razing 4000 plus villages in Turkey) so they reduce support for guerrillas. You are right about world not giving a damn.
You said it: camping there.
Apart from the poppies it seems that Afghanistan has nothing to offer to be stolen. Only its geographical situation, which might make of it an interesting asset. But to control what? Well, Afghanistan itself to be sure.
After paying the Mudjahid ragtag armies, when the Soviets left the Americans completely forgot about it. Then the interest for a gas pipe emerged, and the Taleban were invented in order to throw away the warlords. But the US wasn’t ready to spend money there, and the country was left to its misery.
Then the US found out that there were Wahhabi bases down there, as they were the only ones giving some cash to the Pashtun.
Well now they camp there to prevent the Afghans from taking other tenants. In the meantime some one gets richer thanks to the heroin traffic, if you know what I mean.
Ah, and the eternal war situation allows the Empire to test weapons and actual war games…
Last but not least the Afghan Pashtuns enjoy the Hinterland of the uncontrolled Tribal Territories, and for all Obama’s bluff, those territories are even more difficult to submit than Afghanistan.
So you said it: they are camping there. And I would add: a beautiful landscape for a picnic!
@Saker: “I strongly suspect that some circles in Russia were actually interested in allowing the situation in Chechnya to degenerate into such a nightmarish chaos that nobody in his/her right mind would oppose the re-establishment of a powerful state”
It sounds plausible to me now after I’ve pondered on Enrique’s arguments about the moderate Chechens who loathed Wahabis and all it brought to their country.
After all it could’ve been possible that Kadyrov was not just a sold out collaborator but the one who clearly saw where Chechnya was about to fall. It was obvious that Russia was interested in a healthy and strong Chechnya when Basaev Hattab and Co were taking it straight to hell.
It was possible maybe that the Russians had an agreement with Cadyrov and Yamadaev brothers before the invasion.
New thought to me.
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