There is no doubt in my mind that what we are witnessing today is the biggest strategic psyop campaign since the war in Bosnia. Clearly, the conduct of such a campaign is expensive and very labor intensive, and I don’t think that the USraelian Empire would be wasting such resources just like that. There is definitely a “phase two” coming next.
The more I look at what is happening in Iran, the more I see striking parallels with another war which I had the opportunity to follow, day by day, minute by minute (I was, at the time, a military analyst).
The Serbs in Bosnia were extremely confident that neither the USA nor Europe had the guts to fight them on their own turf. They also could count, or so they thought, on the help of their fellow Serbs from Serbia (Yugoslav Federal Forces). They new that the Bosnian Muslims had a numerical advantage over them, but the counted on their superiority in artillery to offset that disadvantage. The Serbs, who during WWII had successfully resisted against the combined forces of the German Nazis, Croat Ustashe and Bosnian Muslim SS just did not feel really threatened, least of all by the dispersed forces of UNPROFOR. But they did not count with the sophistication of the Empire who, instead of stupidly sending its jarheads into Bosnia, attacked the Serbs with a multi-dimensional strategy.
First, the Serbs were very successfully demonized. The word “Serb” soon began evoking images of concentration camps, torture, rape, executions, baby shooting snipers, etc. A number of false-flag attacks were staged, including at the Markale market in Sarajevo. Any information which deviated from the official line (such as the report of UNPROFOR intelligence section in Sarajevo which concluded that the Serbian forces could not have fired a mortar into that market) was immediately thrown down the memory hole.
Second, pressure was put to essentially co-opt Milosevic. That was done in a very low key, but the basic idea was that he would be allowed to remain in power in Serbia if he agreed to betray the Bosnian Serbs. Needless to say, being the Communist leader which he was, Milosevic agreed. Suddenly, the Serbs faced an embargo in which the Federal Republic had joined in.
Third, the Empire organized, armed, and trained Croat forces (the Empire never really trusted the Muslims in Bosnia) to first seize the so-called “UNPAs” (UN protected areas) in Croatia and then to attack the remaining Serbian forces in Bosnia. For this purpose, all the heavy weapons of the Serbs (yes, the ones they had counted on the offset their numeral disadvantage) were placed in storage which left the Bosnian Serbs with only small arms.
Lastly, when the joint US-Croatian forces attacked, Milosevic pulled back his brigades leaving the Bosnian Serbs to face the combined onslaught of the NATO airforces, the Croat mechanized troops and the Muslim infantry with little more than rifles. At that point, resistance was futile.
The doubleplusgoodthinking world shed very few tears over the Bosnian Serbs. In particular, Muslims worldwide had so thoroughly bought into the Imperial propaganda that they totally failed to see that the only real crime of the Bosnian Serbs (at least in the eyes of the Empire) had been to refuse to comply with the diktats of the Empire. The sole word “Srebrenica” was good enough to stop any fact-based and logic driven analysis of what had really happened when that city fell to the Serbian forces.
As for Milosevic, having outlived his utility for the Empire, he was dumped and immediately attacked through the war in Kosovo (which, by the way, was conducted *exactly* as the war in Bosnia had been). And again – the world bought into the bullshit spewed by the US Psyops.
Now, it is absolutely clear that Iran is next.
Like in the case of the Bosnian Serbs, the Empire has successfully created a political lever INSIDE Iran. Today, Mousavi has been instantly re-branded as a “liberal” (a laughable claim for anybody actually knowing this gentleman’s full biography) and he is used against the Iranian government exactly as Milosevic had been used against Karadzic. Like Milosevic, Mousavi (and his puppeteers Rafsanjani and Montazeri) probably thinks that if he (they) come to power the Empire will let him (them) stay in power.
As for the Ahmadinejad/Khamenei camp, they probably feel that the USraelians will not dare attack Iran. I hope and pray that I am wrong and that they do understand the current psyop campaign for what it is – a first phase for a real war.
The public opinion in the West has learned exactly NOTHING from the previous US Psyop campaign. It is buying into the current propaganda 100%, in particular the Left which just need to be gently nudged into an ideological paradigm to immediately be outraged and condemn some putative “bad guy”.
The one big difference between the Bosnian Serb situation and the one in Iran is that in the former case the lever was far more powerful than its object: Milosevic had far more economic, political and military power than Karadzic. In Iran the lever (Mousavi) is far weaker than the government. Unlike the Serbs who could only count of their own small forces, the Iranian government knows that it can use the Pasdaran to control the situation. So as long as the Empire does not find a lever INSIDE the Pasdaran, I predict that the strategy will fail. But if one such high-level traitor is found inside the IRGC all bets are off.
One thing the US psyop campaign has already achieved: with the demonization of the government it has carefully prepared the world’s public opinion for an military operation overthrow the “regime”. After all, just image that the “Basij thugs” who killed Neda* will do against their “neighbors” (the “I” word will not be used outside the USA) if they are armed with nuclear weapons!!!
I hope that the Iranian government has learned the lessons from the Imperial wars in Bosnia, in Kosovo and in Iraq and that it will fully prepare itself to simultaneously fight on two fronts: external and internal. On the internal front, it needs to make a huge effort to explain to its own population what is happening and externally it must continue to seek deter the Empire by all possible means. Lastly, it must be prepared to face a long war combining internal destabilization, terrorist attacks, economic sabotage, guerrillas and airstrikes.
There is one battle which I think cannot be won: the Western public opinion is clearly too stupidifed by the corporate media to ever get it right. The eagerness with which even presumably intelligent people have bought into the Imperial propaganda clearly proves that whenever the Empire wants to strike it will get a strong majority of its public opinion to believe *any* nonsense needed to demonize the target. As Einstein observed:
“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the former.”
The Saker
——-
*The image of the poor Neda is now serving the same function as the famous (and faked) image of the emaciated man behind barbed wire in a “concentration camp” in Bosnia (a British TV crew staged that shot in Bosnia. Read “The Picture That Fooled The World” for details). This “icon” of the “resistance” will serve to outrage people even if it turns out that the shooter had nothing to do with the government.
Well VS, Kissinger pretty much spilled the beans last week when he said there may have to be regime change in Iran and Ahmadinejad may have to be ousted. The neocons have had Iran on the list for regime change for years. Cheney would have done it a year or two ago if he could have got his way IMHO.
This is very intelligent assessment as to what is happening. Looking at the various scenarios for war and it seemed to me that the empire’s position was not a good one and that they would simply accept it and try to cut a deal with Iran.
Foolish of me. Looking at the map, Iran is simply too important strategically. Untapped oil and nat gas, dominating location along the Persian Gulf and the ability to influence, effectively train and organize Muslim resistance (Shiite and otherwise) abroad. It has the potential to be the most powerful nation in the middle east, by far. It now has been handed control of Iraq and Afghanistan. There is no way the empire will simply give that up.
The psyop against Serbia was very effective. I know because 10 years ago I bought it hook line and sinker. I’ve since taken the red pill and know better. Indeed many people have thanx to the internet and multiple savvy bloggers, but most people still have not.
It is with that in mind that Iran has to plan its next move and it is for that reason that new elections may be the smartest move Iran can make.
It would be nearly impossible to claim that Ahmadinejad stole the election twice. And if Musavi wins, the IRGC can put him on a very short leash. In fact, they can rig it so he does win. It would suck the wind out of any momentum to start a war. He can make noises of compromise and reconciliation, while Iran moves on with its development. And in 4 years after he has served his purpose he can be replaced.
Of course, it is not so simple. The real power behind the opposition, Rafsanjani, has to be dealt with. Cut out the heart, but leave the face in place.
Iran has to understand the game being played against it. It has to turn the tables and use that game to its advantage.
P.S.
Did you see Krauthammer’s wapo editorial today claiming Iran needs a new Yeltsin? It seems every country needs a drunk puppet tgat sells his nation to hostile foreign interests. They aren’t even hiding anymore.
Also his question “can Musavi become Yeltsin?” may be a hint at Musavi. In case he is considering cutting a deal with the government, he is being reminded of his chance to be an opposition ‘leader.’ in the good graces of the empire.
Meanwhile…
About psyops, here’s an interesting thing: here’s an article from “The Telegraph” about Iranian accusation against UK for it hosts (and probably founds) groups like MKO. At the end of the article they talk about the Awazi separatist groups, and according to the article a “simpathetic” website netx to the British Ahwazi Friendship Society:
“Ahwaz City is in turmoil with ‘many, many dead’ at the hands of police and the Bassiji, supported by the Lebanese Hizbollah, according to numerous independent eye-witness accounts”.
That thing about Hezbollah, again. I know these accusation are actually crap, but that seems likely to become a catchphrase in the next months.
A provocative comparison, and I agree that such comparisons are essential tools of analysis. However, it does seem to me that far too much evidence is emerging from Iran to conclude that it is all faked. The range of opinion even within the senior clerics that has been reported by official Iranian media is quite astonishing and implicitly (sometimes explicitly) very critical of the regime. The astounding efficiency of the regime (what was it, six hours?) in releasing the electoral result plus the apparent refusal or inability of the regime to release the figures to support that result also inspire suspicion.
Perhaps what we have is a real electoral fraud that outsiders are taking advantage of.
@William deB.Mills: Perhaps what we have is a real electoral fraud that outsiders are taking advantage of.
Let me make one thing absolutely clear. The fact that I have so far seen no evidence (not even indirect) of electoral fraud does, of course, not mean that fraud has not occured. As Rummy said, “absence of proof is not proof of absence”. Thus, I want to make it absolutely clear that I am not affirming that fraud did not happen.
Likewise, in the Bosnian war the Serbs did commit atrocities, not of the magnitude or quality attibuted to them by the US psyops, but nonetheless some Serb units (almost always irregular paramilitaries like the White Swans) did commit atrocites.
But in both cases the Empire grossely inflated the magnitude of the crime (assuming there was any crime in Iran) and used it for its imperialistic purposes.
As I wrote in my very first post about this election, I was generally leaning towards seeing a new face representing Iran. I honestly can say that I am not an “Ahmadinejad groupie” and I am not trying to “support” him or anyone else in Iran.
I am trying to support Iran. The country, the people.
And what I see today is not so much an anti-Ahmadinajad operation as a anti-Iran operation.
I just wanted to clarify this.
If I ever come across any credible evidence of fraud in the past elections, you can count on me to post it here. As Malcolm X said, I am for the truth, no matter who says it.
@Alex: Yeah, the Hezbollah thing is hilarious. Next, they are gonna tell us about ties between Ahmadinejad and Bin Laden, or how “Mullahs” eat Jewish babies for breakfast.
But you know what? The morons who buy into all this nonsense deserve no better. If they had any brains at all, the propaganda would have to be more suble, more carefully crafted. But with the stupidified public in the West, any garbage will do.
VS
After the “Save Darfur” petfood bowls, here’s a bunch of merchandise about Iran.
What’s the use for surrealism, these days?
@Alex: amazing no? But hey – this is capitalism at work, making money from anything it can.
We will soon get a “free Iran” campaign like the “free Tibet” one, with bumper-stickers and all…
Another possibility re election fraud is that it did occur, but was orchestrated by Mousavi to discredit Ahmadinejad.
Look at it this way: Mousavi knows that he’s going to lose by a 2-to-1 margin, so there is no way he is going to be able to rig enough votes to overcome that wide a margin. So the next best thing is to have his people stuff a lot of ballots in favor of Ahmadinejad. It won’t make a difference to the final outcome, but it will enable him to claim fraud and discredit Ahmadinejad’s win.
The best thing the Iranian government could do right now is call Mousavi’s bluff and hold another election in the interest of national unity, only this time, bring in observers agreeable to both sides to ensure the election is fair.
“That thing about Hezbollah, again. I know these accusation are actually crap, but that seems likely to become a catchphrase in the next months”–alex
Maybe this is so because when they decide to attack Iran, they will also have given themselves the excuse to simultaneously attack Hezbollah…
Mainstream media begin to notice the MKO.
That is one impressive piece of analysis VS.
I’m a bit like Lysander – took the Red Pill maybe 8 years ago, not long after 911. It’s an apt analogy too because the world can never be the same again.
I try to be an optimist but its a struggle. The global military dominance and propaganda capability of ‘The Empire’ are so vast and Western populations so infantile in their fear and credulity that it seems to me nothing short of absolute catalysmic catastrophe can change its present course.
Curt’s Kissinger point was a good one too. We are being prepared for stage 2 and it won’t be pretty.
Amnon Kapeliouk, RIP http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/carnet/2009-06-26-Amnon-Kapeliouk
Great post. I hope saner minds in the current administration would see what a disaster any kind of military action against Iran would be.
Picked a bad time to stop drinking…
No doubt western governments – and many others — want to see regime change in Iran, but anyone who has followed the reform movement knows it is not driven by the CIA, BBC, twitter, or Google or even its own leaders. It is and has been for years driven by the people themselves. This fight reflects a conflict that has been going on for longer than the CIA or even the United States have existed. I find this insulting to the people risking their lives to try to bring change to their country. I also resent the term Guccis. Unlike the student uprising of 1999, this movement cuts across socioeconomic lines. Who are the real Guccis in Iran? The guys with the big Swiss bank accounts? Most of them support and are part of the regime. And as for Neda, if some sinister foreign force wanted to kill her to create a martyr wouldn’t they be smart enough to use an Iranian gun and bullet like those used by security forces if they wanted to frame the noble Basij? I mean, the same people who think the CIA was able to engineer this crisis in Iran (despite severely restricted access in Iran) also seem to belioeve the CIA isn’t smart enough to call someone at Jane’s or Mossad to inquire about proper forensics. Yeah, the CIA has done some shit in this world (but not alone), but not everything is a CIA plot.
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