Syrian War Report – Jan. 10, 2019: Al-Qaeda Defeats Another Turkish-backed ‘Opposition’ Group
On January 9, Ahrar al-Sham groups in northwestern Hama surrendered and dissolved themselves under pressure from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), according to local sources. Thus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) imposed full control over the towns of al-Ankawi and Habit.
Ahrar al-Sham is the core of a Turkish-backed coalition of militant groups known as the National Front for Liberation (NFL). However, neirther other NFL factions nor Turkey intervened to support Ahrar al-Sham during the incident in northwestern Hama.
According to pro-opposition media, the defeated Ahrar al-Sham members will get an opportunity to withdraw to the region of Afrin after they hand over their heavy weapons to HTS.
The current focus of HTS attention is southern Idlib, in particular the town of Maarrat al-Nu’man, which is still in the hands of the NFL.
Last week, another Turkish-backed group, Nour al-Din al-Zrenki also suffered a defeat at the hands of HTS and lost all of its areas in western Aleppo.
The collapse of the so-called “moderate opposition” under HTS pressure caused a hysteria among pro-militant media activists and media outlets, which are now blaming Turkey and Russia for the current situation. According to this very theory, Ankara and Moscow allowed the HTS expansion in order to justify the resumption of anti-terrorist operations in the Idlib de-escalation zone area.
These rumors are fueled by the recent movements of Russian forces in the demilitarized zone near the Idlib province. According to reports, Russian forces withdrew from their observation post in the town of Abu Dali in the government-held part of the northern Hama countryside to the nearby town of Tulaysiyah on January 9. Earlier, Russian troops started establishing a new military post in the Salba hill south of the town of Hayalin in northwestern Hama.
Some opposition activists described these movements as indicating Russian preparations for a military operation in Idlib.
On January 9, Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu. According to statements from the sides, they discussed the recent developments in the Idlib de-escalation zone as well as other regional security issues.
Meanwhile, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have once again captured the village of Ash-Shafah in the Euphrates Valley from ISIS, according to pro-Kurdish sources. Now, the SDF is reportedly advancing on ISIS positions in the nearby village of Albu Badran.
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The Turkish control of the de-escalation zone is completely gone. Erdogan has lost three proxy groups in the three months (most in the last few weeks). He would have to get air cover from Russia or the US to send in his own troops. The experiment in Idlib, using Turks to control the DEZ, is over.
The question is will Turkey extricate al Nusra whole, in parts or not at all.
His pattern has been to do very little to bring into Turkey these AQ headchoppers.
His strategy is so flawed in Syria that events are snowplowing him. He can’t attack the SDF Kurds. The US will blow away his troops. He can’t fly against the YPG. Russia won’t allow him. And he has lost his control of proxies, most of them destroyed in turf fights inside Idlib province.
He needs to stand with Russia and Iran and, thus, he becomes a de facto Assad backer.
The Russians are ready to destroy al Nusra in place. They have used aerospace in the last few days to strike these terrorists. The Syrians are maneuvering (likely under Russian generals’ direction) to do what they have done since 2016. They will fight to create boilers and then liquidate with artillery and from the air all terrorists caught within the cauldrons.
What has to be done is to be certain no chemical attack false flags and resulting propaganda is made possible in this Idlib operation. So the going will be slow. The InfoWar is a big concern. The EU states have a large interest in the war not ending and their culpability exposed. UK, France, Germany and others are stakeholders in the war that destroyed Syria. The legal case against them for reparations is self-evident. With the price tag to rebuild Syria in the 300-400 Billion dollar range, they want al Nusra to hold and the Russians to fear more sanctions.
Also, at any time, Assad could be assassinated. Israel, Turkey and the US would be the prime movers of such an act.
Instead of a 2-3 month Idlib operation, the Russians may have decided on a 6-9 month operation that will cleave the province into small chunks and gradually grind the 50,000+ into dust with far less grand scale than thought about last year.
Whatever the plans, Erdogan has been diminished tactically and strategically. He has a big Kurd problem that he cannot solve without Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq. He has no leverage.
Does anyone imagine that Erdogon loses any sleep about whether these groups are lost or not? I’m thinking the word “expendable” applies. Probably the phrase “expendable dupes”.
As shown in this article, Israel has one goal in post-civil war Syria:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2019/01/israels-agenda-in-post-war-syria.html
Given this information and the recent appearance of John Bolton in Jerusalem, at the very least, it appears that the timeline for American troop withdrawal from Syria is fluid, largely because Israel wants to ensure that its agenda in Syria is achieved before the United States disappears from the scene.
I think you—or the blogger—are 100% right.
Israel annexed the Golan totally illegally in 1981.
It is a joke that the annexation of Crimea is bruited about as a descriptoin of reality, while the open and brazen illegal annexation of the Golan is mentioned—it at all—as teh case of recognizing “facts on the ground.”
Israel was actually surprised that the Syrians living on the Golan wished to remain Syrian and had no wish whatsoever to be “integrated” into Israel. So, they are also an indigenous population about to be swamped and eradicated by Israeli colonial settlers.
I should tlhink that the parallels between the Golan and Crimea would be obvious, also to Putin.
Katherine
Katherine
Its the same question as always under Trump. Who actually controls the US military and CIA and the rest of the alphabet soup of agencies? In a democracy, there is civilian control of these agencies, so that the people through their ability to elect a President and Congress actually has the ultimate control. However, it has become very obvious under Trump that this is not the case.
And in that case, it is highly likely that no person has total control over the whole bunch. It is highly likely that the CIA is under separate control from the Pentagon. And since the NSA has all the blackmail material, its unlikely that anyone else controls them.
At this point, it doesn’t even seem as if Trump has control of his own national security adviser or Secretary of State, either though both serve at the pleasure of the President and can be fired on Trump’s say-so. Certainly Erdogon and the Turks have been saying that they had a deal with Trump when Trump was making his sales call to seal the deal on the Patriot missiles and to keep the F-35 deal together. But they said that Bolton and Gen Dumford (highest ranking military officer) had something completely different on offer when they visited Turkey.
Fascinating how everyone in the media, both corporate and alternative focuses on Bolton, when a person with real power as the person in command of the US military was right next to him on the trip.
The zionazi-gays try another cowardly attack.
Syrian Air Defences Respond to Enemy Attack, Down Several Targets – Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201901121071412132-syria-air-defences-respond-attack/
“According to Ikhbariya broadcaster, several targets have been shot down during an enemy attack over Damascus, Syria.
A military source told Syrian SANA news agency later that Israeli jets fired several missiles towards vicinity of Damascus, most of the missiles were downed.
According to the source, the airstrikes caused damage to a warehouse at Damascus International Airport.
A source in Syrian Ministry of Transport confirmed to SANA later that the Damascus International Airport traffic was not affected by the strikes.”
Some additional info:
‘Israeli jets’ target Damascus airport warehouse, ‘most’ missiles intercepted – Syrian media
https://www.rt.com/news/448622-syria-air-defense-damascus/
“A warehouse in the vicinity of Damascus International Airport was damaged in the apparent Israeli air raid, a military source told SANA, claiming that the jets fired “several missiles” from the direction of northern Israel. Syrian air defense systems were immediately activated to confront the “hostile missiles,” and managed to intercept “most” of them, the source claimed.”
See also:
Videos of the Israeli attack and Syrian response
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/videos-of-the-israeli-attack-and-syrian-response/
“The Israeli missiles reportedly caused several explosions after they hit a munitions warehouse near the Damascus International Airport – no casualties have been reported thus far.
Below are a number of videos that were captured around Damascus last night:
Interception south of #Damascus pic.twitter.com/pEItezfOaO
— Drexl Spivey (@RisboLensky) January 11, 2019
من تصدي دفاعاتنا الجوية للأهداف المعادية .✌🏻✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/etSJz3Wemn
— أخبار سوريا الوطن Syria (@SyriawatanNews) January 11, 2019
عاجل بالفيديو
الدفاعات الجوية السورية تتصدى لأهداف معادية وتسقط عدد منها pic.twitter.com/2pd0M0VJL1
— أخبار سوريا الوطن Syria (@SyriawatanNews) January 11, 2019
S-200 (probably) launched over #Damascus via @wassim_syrian pic.twitter.com/irVUgpn9HS
— Drexl Spivey (@RisboLensky) January 11, 2019 “
Five British Servicemen Killed After Shelling by Terrorists in Syria – Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201901091071345896-syria-daesh-shelling-deir-ezzor/
“Five British servicemen were killed by a missile launched by Daesh* terrorists in Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor, al-Watan newspaper reported, quoting local sources.
“Five British servicemen died when a Daesh rocket hit them in the village of al-Shaaf, several others were injured,” the newspaper cited local sources.”
They died for israel.
Russian-Kurdish negotiations in Moscow: Turkey has defined its options and Washington is trying to gain time
Elijah J Magnier
https://ejmagnier.com/2019/01/10/russian-kurdish-negotiations-in-moscow-turkey-has-defined-its-options-and-washington-is-trying-to-gain-time/
“For Damascus, had Turkey occupied the north of Syria, it would have been possible to exert diplomatic and international leverage on Ankara to force its departure from Syrian territory. At the same time, it would have been almost impossible for the Syrian government to force an early departure of the US forces had these established themselves in Afrin or al-Hasaka, offering a platform for Israel to use the Levant by benefitting from American infrastructure in the area.”
Interesting article providing a lot of insight into what is now happening between the different forces involved. Very useful.
Regular Israeli Attacks on Syria Only Possible Due to US Backing – Damascus
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201901121071423933-israel-attack-syria-cover/
“In a statement published on Saturday, the ministry said it had dispatched letters to the secretary general of the United Nations and the head of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in connection with Friday night’s unprovoked attack on Damascus.
“This treacherous aggression fits within the framework of Israel’s attempts to prolong the crisis and the war against the terrorists in Syria, and to raise the morale of the remnants of the terrorist groups acting as its agents,” an excerpt from the letter reads.
“Furthermore, this is another attempt by the Israeli government to avoid addressing pressing domestic problems,” the letter adds.
According to the Syrian Foreign Ministry, Israel’s continued aggression is possible only thanks to the “military, political and media cover provided by the US administration.”