By all accounts, all sides are ready for war. That does NOT mean that war is inevitable, only that there are no more objective factors making war impossible.
How long can this “neither quite here, nor quite there” situation last?
A long time, at least until the Fall of 2021.
Let’s not pretend like anybody is a prophet and can predict the future (all those who do are, in reality, clueless).
The most likely next phase would be a Ukronazi diversionary/terrorist attack, either in the Donbass, or in Crimea or even somewhere else in Russia. Keep in mind that the Ukie special services have a proven track of successful clandestine operations.
So what I suggest for a topic today is this: what kind of diversionary/terrorist provocations (as opposed to purely military moves) could the Ukronazis pull off the provoke the LDNR (or even Russia) and then declare itself a victim of aggression?
Hugs and cheers
The Saker
I watched an excellent documentary on war a fews years ago. They talked about wars going back thousands of years to the present. When an army is going to attack, all the plans and logistics are carefully put in place. Once all the preparations have been made the only thing left is to trigger it off. The instigators do not want to be seen as the aggressors so they fabricate (false flag) something so they claim they were attacked first — and off they go. The war they planned and wanted so bad is underway.
The Russian military would see all this unfolding – it’s on rails. But what could they do? The USA won’t be deterred. The only way this could have been avoided that I can see is that if the USA feared a nuclear war with Russia to the extent they would not take such ridiculously dangerous chance.
U.S. has nothing to fear in terms of nuclear war because u.s./nato absolutely would not get involved in a Ukrainian conflict anyway. They would just let their Ukie slaves get decimated by Russia and that’s that. U.S. would not dare fight Russia directly in any capacity.
Agreed. A defeated and destroyed Ukraine would provide loads of propaganda for Western intelligence agencies and their prostituted press corps. It would have a significant geopolitical impact, being used to justify all kinds of Western aggression.
The objective is not to help Ukraine regain Crimea or the Eastern provinces this is to create hate (good cop bad cop) between people that will last for 100 years if not longer. This is what they did in the Balkans, and now they just give orders. They enslave the domestic drones for their economic benefit . No need for guns the hate will be enough to install new colonialism without any resistance from the ones who were bamboozeled. .
What will happen next?
In June, During the NATO exercise Defending Europe 21, the Ukro NAZIs or Turkish controlled head-choppers will launch a falls flag attack.
This could be a chemical weapon launched against Ukrainian soldiers, claiming that the attack was launched by the Donbass militia, and that the chemical weapon was supplied by Russia.
The western MSN will blame Russia for the aggression.
While Russia is busy defending itself against the unjust accusations from the so called international community, the NATO exercise will go live and invade Donbass, claimed as humanitarian intervention.
The only way this can be avoided is if the US really fears a nuclear attack on American soil.
As soon as the first falls flag attack occurs in Ukraine, Russia should launch a nuclear weapon on American soil.
A good target will be the HAARP facility located in desolate Alaska. The facility is operated by the private Global Elite, and hated world wide for its clandestine operations.
When the facility is reduced to rubble, and nuclear radiation is traveling the northern hemisphere via the Jet stream, the western MSN will go into hysteria, calling for a ceasefire.
Mass demonstrations against war and COVID Lock Down will quickly turn into Riots and civil war, devastating every major city in Europe and America.
If the NATO do not stop its invasion of Donbass by then:
Russia will send missiles against every NATO Command center located in Ukraine and Poland.
And then hell will break loose:
China will attack US Navy vessels in the South China Sea and invade Taiwan.
North Korea will attack South Korea.
Nationalist in Japan will attack US deployments in Japan.
The Philippines will attack US assets like Al Qaeda in the region and invade Indonesia.
The Taliban will attack US and NATO deployments in Afghanistan.
India will enter into war with Pakistan.
Iraq will attack the US deployment in Bagdad, and northern Iraq.
Iran will attack US-NATO vessels in the Gulf, ending all oil supply to the west.
Yemen will attack Saudi Arabia.
Somalia will attack all ships in the bay of Aden.
Egypt will close the Suez Canal.
Syria will launch an attack against Turkish troops in Northern Syria.
Russia will shoot down every Fighter jet and drone entering Syrian airspace.
Lebanon will attack Israeli forces in the Golan.
Hezbola will attack Israel from Gaza.
Libya will launch attacks against Turkish troops in Libya.
Armenia will launch major attack against Turkish forces in eastern Anatolia.
Greece will attack Turkish transgression of Greek airspace and Turkish vessels near Cyprus.
Civil war will erupt in the Balkan, Serbia will retake Kosovo, and enter war with Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Civil war will erupt in Spain, and Catalonia will secede from Madrid.
Paris will enter into chaos, and Macron will flee.
Al-Qaeda will launch a major attack on French troop in West Africa.
Venezuela will attack US navy vessels in the Caribbean sea.
Argentina will invade the Falkland Islands.
American Patriots will storm Washington for real. The National Guard protecting DC will defect.
CIA and FBI Agent will be hunted down by American Patriots. Many states will secede from the US.
Most western government will be forced to step down. The EU and NATO will disintegrate.
All Nordic Nations will enter into a Nordic defense Alliance.
As the Fascist Empire collapses, the multi polar world will be reborn.
Let’s hope so! MAGA!
Why Philippines invade Indonesia? Wouldn’t both invading Malaysia and Brunei make more sense? At least if they get some help.
The heads of Pakistan and India need to spin their heads around and screw them back on straight or all is probably lost (or the transition to a multipolar world far messier).
Don’t buy that there are real American Patriots, these are mostly reactionaries who do not have a clue of any kind of populism any less deranged than neoconservative neoliberalism.
As the late Gary Dee Gilbert, probably the last Commonist Christian Country & Western DJ would probably say it if he were still alive “Amen and hallelujah, ooo-jeeSUS” to most of the above.
You forgot the Six Counties of northern Ireland now under British rule, as well as all the formerly industrial centers of England now populated largely by former subjects of the British Empire.
William Haught wrote:
Why Philippines invade Indonesia? Wouldn’t invading Malaysia and Brunei make more sense?
Answer: Probably.
However you are overlooking the big picture here.
Every nation attacked by the Empire, will take the chance to settle their score with the Empire.
War between Russia and the Empire will open up a Pandora’s Box of attacks against Imperial forces around the world.
It will be like the Roman Empire or NAZI Germany having spread it forces too wide and thin, so every unit will be defenseless from local attacks, and the Empire will not be able to send support in time.
William Haught wrote: Don’t buy that there are real American Patriots.
Answer: We may very well both be surprised when TSHTF. Amen and hallelujah.
Ciaran wrote: You forgot the Six Counties of northern Ireland now under British rule, as well as all the formerly industrial centers of England now populated largely by former subjects of the British Empire.
Answer: Yes, and there is probably many more Nations p++++ Off by the Empire, that I have forgotten.
I would not be surprised if the German population went into strike and demonstrations, demanding that the US bases and Nuclear weapons in Germany left the country.
An obvious candidate and an easy one would be blowing up a pipeline on their own territory
Nils
Instigating a false flag on their own territory would fool no one, as it would be so obvious. Russia is obviously expecting something like this, either in Ukraine, in the Donbass, or in Crimea. I personally do not expect a false flag inside Russia, although I could be wrong. However, this would not undermine Russias combat effectiveness.
As for a Ukrainian attack, I think it would be impossible before the weather improved and the soil became dry, as wet soil turns into mud when tanks and self propelled artillery are driven over it.
Like what happened on 11 September 2001 fooled no one, or Maiden, or Odessa??? List goes on and on.
I think that one possibility that needs to be considered is also that, they were hoping to goad the rebels into conflict but hoping Russia would actually do the same thing as last time–i.e. mostly stay out of it and only provide clandestine support here and there. Because either way even with that they would have their chief ostensible reason to blame Russia as they could easily claim they are ‘invading’ like they did last time, with doctored images etc. But what they may not have considered is Russia actually arming for major war and that suddenly possibly terrified them and now they are scared to actually act because they didn’t expect Russia to actually move all its armies right to the border and threaten ‘collapse’ of Ukrainian state.
I think even Bernhard at MoA is proposing something along similar lines at the moment.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/04/after-the-bear-showed-its-teeth-the-ukraine-filed-for-peace.html
I hear things like the 119th missile brigade of the 2nd Russian army has been completely repositioned from Central Military District (largest district) to Voronezh. As I understand it, the 119th houses a lot (or the most?) of Russian most advanced Iskander ballistic missiles that could strike strategic depths at HQ points in the rear guard and decimate Ukrainian command. This of course is amongst many other things we all know Russia moved to the frontline, but this particularly sends a ruthless message. A couple hundred BMP’s and other light armor does not much frighten Ukrainian general staff / command, but Russia’s biggest Iskander / ballistic command most certainly would because you are not safe ANYWHERE from those missiles. They are ballistic, they are hyper-sonic, they are extremely large and powerful, and I don’t think even U.S. missile defense can stop them (like I said–Hypersonic).
I have a feeling now that Putin has shown his willingness to do a reenactment of 2008 war, Ukie leadership will back down.
Mentioned this on the last thread. Proof its all a PR stunt for the MSM that they “don’t want war” – they have carried on their shelling.
According to Tass:
https://tass.com/world/1276409
“The village of Oktyabr in the south of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) came under mortar shelling by Ukrainian troops, the Donetsk News Agency reported on Saturday, citing the DPR’s mission to the Joint Ceasefire Control and Coordination Center.
The shelling attack from the Ukraine-controlled village of Pishchevik occurred at 14:20 local time. Three mines of the 82mm caliber were fired…………..”
Turkey seems to be a key player here.
(coincidentally Russian tourists died and got injured in Turkey today https://tass.com/emergencies/1276419 )
They might be the one’s concocting the “false flag/provocation”. Just note the comments coming out today. Ze is in Turkey where Erdogan states again that he doesn’t accept the “annexation of Crimea” and supports the Crimean platform::
https://tass.com/world/1276437
and
https://tass.com/world/1276443
“Ukraine’s and Turkey’s views on security threats in the Black Sea region and response options are identical, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said on Saturday after talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Istanbul.
“We thoroughly discussed the issue of security and joint response to threats in the Black Sea region. I would like to note that Kiev’s vision and Ankara’s visions about the threats and about the ways of responding to these threats are identical,” he told a news conference broadcast on the presidential office’s Facebook account.
Zelensky stressed that Turkey’s support on issues of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity was very important for his country……”
So the US can use NATO member, Turkey, who carries out the provocation – we’ve seen it before in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. They will provide the terrorists and means. Even a fake “chemical attack” as per Syria could take place. Or blowing up critical infrastructure by these terrorists.
Or CIA/M16 Navalny/Novichok style incident will take place – Ze should be very afraid…….this ties in with what is going on at PACE:
https://tass.com/politics/1276449
This time though, Russia will respond.
Can never understand Erdogan. Russia is building a $20B nuclear plant (4 reactors) in Turkey (financed by Russia), and completed the ‘Turkstream’ gas pipeline. Why would he jeopardize these investments? What could he possible gain from Ukraine that he cannot get already? Baffling.
Erdogan has a nepoleonic complex. Rationality is out the door. Elimination would seem to be the best choice, but for the risk of winding up with a complete puppet of the AZ empire instead.
Erdogan has puzzled me, he is seemingly unpredictable and seems to act erratically, veering between cooperation with the West and with Russia.
What he may actually be doing is playing the two great powers off against each other so as to remain free of both of them.
Playing Russia and the USA against each other is a tradition in Turkey going back to 1945. This is conditioned by their geography and history….driven largely by arrogance towards Russia…and the feeling that they can sponge on the USA …
The reality is Turkey has then NOT been free of the influence of both major powers by the very fact of playing them off against each other…
That is an answer that comes to mind, but in that game, you can end by making enemies of both.
I can only assume Russia is helping Turkey in various ways because it is true to its principal of “multipolarity” and isn’t going apply morality to every trade deal but rather will let Turkey destroy its own reputation by means of its total lack of self awareness – funding head choppers will eventually attract the attention of even the most craven Western retard. Can the Ottoman Empire be recreated in an era of modern communications technology? Probably not? Typical Putin jujitsu.
Really? The U.S. attempts to build a Syrian Offense Farce where the recruits defect to the Saudi’s progressive moderate head-chopping Wuhhabist AlCIAda as fast (or faster) than The Pentagram can recruit them, support of Saudi / AlCIAda supreme crimes worse than all others against the Houthis and hunanity in general and the average craven Western ‘tard (a good, easy 99.44% of the population apparently) so far has total lack of awareness.
What war against ISIS is there??? Some Egyptian goddess?? The US should sent its deranged Deuteronomy / Revelation fake Christians to fight head-choppers as moderate as themselves so that they give each other fatal spiritual spankings before they can have children to abuse.
This will likely evoke cynicism on the part of other commenters, but I think it is at least a possibility that Turkey is working secretly with Russia in provoking a Ukrainian action that will trigger a war that would justify a Russian response. Encouraging Ukraine with support along with the promised “unwavering support” of the US might well encourage Zelenskii to advance against Crimea and/or Donbas. False flags and other provocative actions are not the exclusive domain of the US. As I have noted before, I believe Russia considers the noise coming out of NATO as an existential threat to the Russian Federation, and Russia has already decided to take action against Ukraine in order to take and fortify a permanent buffer between NATO states and Russia.
This could be a deal between the Turks and Russia a quid pro quo we will support you with the Kurds if you embolden the Ukies so that Russia can slap them down as they need to be slapped . In both cases US wins . US wants instability Ukies and the Kurds will provide it.
Turkey’s Ukrainian interest is in the Crimean Tatars. Erdoğan wants Crimea, in his dreams, at any rate
@Victor, I highly doubt that Turkey is secretly working with Russia. Turkey is member of Nato and the remnants of the former Ottoman Empire are mostly in Nato’s zone of influence. It is in Turkey’s interest to recreate their pseudo Ottoman Empire under Nato’s umbrella.
I do believe Russia might and should make the first move to take out Ukraine for good, but i doubt Putin would give such an order, it will probably not happen.
I do not think Ukraine is going head on suicidal against Russia, they just want to cause enough tensions to “cash” in on Western Russophobia (at the upcoming Crimean Platform in August).
Nato’s goal is to slowly encroach up on Russia, like a python, without alarming (Nato starting a large war) the victim too soon which would give the victim the early strategic advantage. Russia should react (Russia starting a war) before the python has her neck surrounded. Scaring the python (detonating a nuke in the Black Sea as a show of force) might also do the trick and change the python’s mind not to get any closer, or else..
Nothing will probably happen unless a miscalculation is made by either side (Russia, Ukraine or Nato).
Not sure that I agree with that as its too logical lol!
Erdogan is unpredictable but his actions with the jihadist head choppers tells me that Erdogan is still firmly in the US Court but is also a FOOLISH place to be.
I agree in that Russia should just act as Ukraine will always be a threat due to its unpredictable ZioNazi billionaire bankster backers in the US.
I think Putin once said something to the effect of, Leaders come and go but countries remain. Once Erdogan is gone Turkey will still be there.
That was Stalin about Germany.
Cheers
Time will tell
And with the eventual completion of the new Bosphorous canal under Turkeys administration …does that mean is it outside of Montreux thingy….so Nato could more easily control whole east of Black sea……
On YouTube Alexander Mercouris has a very good video explaining this. Well worth a watch. I might also add that his general take on Ukraine and other geopolitical machinations are pretty good.
What A Stupid Move on Erdogan’s part after Putin saved his ass from a coup in 2016.
Think Putin will continue to play nice with this kind of betrayal? Erdogan is a Fool.
Of course, if someone wanted to lure the 119th forward as far as possible so that it is more easily attacked with cruise missiles…
No matter how far forward this unit (119th) is deployed it will always be sited on the soil of Mother Russia. The moment the first NATO cruise missile crosses the border into Russia the response from the Russian military will not be a token one. It will be dramatic – most likely a salvo of supersonic, high supersonic and hypersonic missiles from every available platform (air, sea, ground based) and it will aimed at the most important military HQs and bases in NATO-land.
Putin has already stated in no uncertain terms that Russia will never allow another devastating attack on Russian soil without an immediate military response against not just the specific locations from which those attacks were launched but at their centres of “decision making”.
This statement is well understood by all the senior military in NATO.
Does the Ukie leadership have any say in stopping the oligarchs’ age old wet dream?
Iskander is not hypersonic.
Of course I have no idea what will happen, but I do understand who the players are and what they think they’ll gain out of the situation, and I understand what those players have done in the past in order to get their way.
Motive for the first shot goes to Ukraine and the US. If Ukraine’s feet are too cold to take the plunge, I’m sure the US will help them with a false flag attack on Russian assets. Something small that they can hide and deny, but something that they’d calculate to spur the Russian side over react.
Of course they have a lot of tools in their repertoire. After all, worse comes to worse they can even shoot down another airliner then blame it on Russia as always. There’s no depth they won’t stoop to.
It doesn’t have to be elaborate. Could be something as simple as what Hitler did in ’39. It didn’t convince the rest of the then constituted ‘rules based int’ order’ because, well, he was on the wrong side of it.
But we now have the orcs saying they value human life and just can’t fathom being responsible for the impending destruction, so they’re standing down. But keeping their army in the field to gaurd against Russian perfidy.
So maybe dress up a bunch of convicts in Russian uniforms, blow them up, and claim Russian aggression. Trumpet the claim in the western msm. And voila, casus Belli. Time it to coinside with Nato excersises in Ukraine and now you have Russia on its back foot. Nato regains the narrative and initiative. At least among their side.
Remove or incapacitate Zelensky with Novichok …………. you know what happens next. OPCW will blame Russia.
Or just let the US State Department cook up whatever incident they want to blame Russia for, and then, with aboslutely no evidence (not even any dead bodies) necessary to back up the claim, the “Ukrainians” agree that it happened. All the vassals will, too.
Death of Zelensky (Putin is a killer.)
To sink a NATO ship in Black Sea.
To let explode a boat full of explosives under the Crimea bridge.
Another Tchernobyl by destroying a nuclear plant.
To sink a ship in the Bosphorus strait to block it.
To let explode a civil plane with all is passenger. (Sorry already done). But bis repetita placent.
To kill children in a Russian school, bus, church, ….
When you have the media who tell the needed narrative, everything is possible (See 9/11).
With regard to point #3:
Recall the ramming incident in 2018. Hard to believe that the RF allows Ukrainian vessels to transit under the bridge w/o inspection. Or at all.
Killing Russian School Children was already tried.
Nothing will unite the Russian Federation faster or more surely.
https://www.rt.com/news/467734-beslan-anniversary-school-siege-hostages/
It would be my wish that some responsible people would figure out a way to de-escalate the situation so very few coffins are filled. There have been some coffins filled already in this little flexing exercise. It really irks me to see the super rich make money on the bullets, and bombs, while the poorer people suffer — loosing their loved ones, and homes, and sometimes their health. to the devastation of war.
But I suspect it will probably go into conflict sometime soon as the West is financially, morally. ethically, bankrupt.
@Pooc: ” It really irks me to see the super rich make money on the bullets, and bombs, while the poorer people suffer”.
Reminds me of a pathetic slogan from a Palestinian woman: “If we drink Coca-Cola we are paying for the bullets that kill our children.”
Probably a major oil spill into the Black or Azov.
My guess is that the US, UK and EU folks could get a few more miles out of another Novichok false flag attack.
Zelensky assassinated.
This article has already been linked above by another commenter. Mod.
The Armed Forces ruled out the use of force to “liberate” Donbass
KIEV, April 9 – RIA Novosti. “Liberation” of Donbass by force will lead to mass deaths of civilians and servicemen, and this is unacceptable for Kiev, said Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak.
“Being devoted to universal human values and norms of international humanitarian law, our state puts the lives of its citizens in the first place,” the General Staff’s press center quoted him as saying.
According to Khomchak, the Ukrainian authorities consider the political and diplomatic way to resolve the situation in Donbass a priority. At the same time, he added that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready for an adequate response both to the escalation of the conflict and to “the complication of the military-political and military-strategic situation around the country.”
Zelensky himself chipped in (machine translated):
Zelensky spoke for a truce in Donbass
MOSCOW, April 9 – RIA Novosti. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the need for a new truce in Donbass after visiting the contact line.
The head of state wrote on Facebook that shooting at the front lines had become “a dangerous routine.” “After several months of observing a complete and general ceasefire, we returned to the need to establish a truce,” Zelensky said.
Is this false Saker?
In Syria in 2016-7 the headchoppers always called for a truce when they were cornered.
Allowed them to regroup and US to reequipe.
While everyone has their eyes on Ukraine, I’m expecting a false flag attack against Russia somewhere in the west. Europe perhaps? Those “evil Russians” had to take out some military site so that the Ukraine invasion plans can succeed. Or some key infrastructure so it harms the people and turns them against Russia. Or in the USA… Russia had to take out a key military commander or civilian infrastructure. Or Britain, Belgium. Wherever. Whatever. Always look where they ‘re not telling you to look.
Norway
They might blow up the dam on the North Crimea Canal impeding water flow to the Crimea.
Nobody will believe Ukraine di it because only the Russians can gain from such an event.
I heard that the Ukies had already interdicted that canal ..
Is that sarcasm and /or the narrative spin U.S. mainscream media and Spin Tanks will use and the “exceptional” members of the “exceptional” Divided Snakes will buy? Sounds like they confuse “exceptional” with a sense of the word “special” that was either concocted or gained currency back in the ’70s.
Zelensky overplayed Biden’s hand.
Joe wanted Russia to invade. But Joe didn’t want a war, a war Kiev would lose and Joe would lose Kiev.
NATO blinked.
Now The Sultan has stepped up. Erdogan will help Ukies. Erdogan has to get all those terrorists off his payrolls and food lines. Having a few thousand AQ and ISIS fight to their death in Ukraine is perfect.
The Russians are ready to kill Ukies, NATO, Americans, Turkmen and Terrorists, whoever wants to taste some thermobaric munitions.
Doesn’t matter when. Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter, day, night, wet ground, dry, cold and snow or hot and dry.
What Russia has demonstrated without a shot being fired is Donbass belongs to Mother and Minsk 2 is acknowledged by one and all as the only roadmap for Kiev.
Of course, Kiev will never follow that roadmap. The consequence of that imperative is Ukraine will shatter itself. Governments will fall. New Presidents will appear. But what Putin did in February 2015 is freeze the conflict. He forced Minsk 2 on Kiev, and that was the end of Ukraine. It will never get Donbass nor the borders with Russia. It lost the Crimea when the Peninsula went home to Mother.
Seven years of backing by the EU and NATO, guidance from the US, and now the brotherly hug by Erdogan and the Turk terrorists proxies has rendered Kiev powerless, clueless and hopeless.
Thirty seconds flight time away is a Russian Federation military force that no nation or alliance on Earth can defeat nor survive their counter-attack.
That is decisive. If you cannot win, all you can do is lose. For Ukraine, what they lose is the nation. It’s statehood will be ended. Worse, many of its officials will be captured or killed and the surviving scum will be prosecuted for the seven years of war crimes.
Not hard to make a decision to stand down faced with that reality.
On another thread I wrote this:
Saturday Stand-down.
The Ukies sending messages that they really don’t want war.
So far, the US has sent no similar message.
The Russians keep demonstrating that they have plenty of military to handle anything the US or NATO want to throw into the “war”.
The US has bet with itself that it can burn the Ukie military and still hold Kiev.
Hedging that bet means the US knows it will lose Kiev.
So, we shall see what happens between now and the NS-2 is completed and what, if anything, Putin says on April 21. His speech to Russian Security Council could be the last word.
Never forget that the #1 motivation for Ukie action is for the principal actors in Kiev to steal the wealth, be it loans or assets of the nation. The war controls the Ukie citizens who otherwise would be outside the doors of government with torches, pitchforks and ropes.
And for Biden and the corrupt US government, war is a distraction if the money laundering that goes on through Kiev is interrupted (or lost forever).
The Russophobes will always have Ukraine if they don’t piss it away.
Meanwhile, they have Russia mired in Syria with the US determination to create a quagmire out of Idlib.
Idlib has been going on for near two years. It’s been in neutral for one year. Russia has to find a strategy and tactics to take all of Idlib and the border with Turkey.
The US is counting on bleeding Russia for the next 4 years. Endless war is in its second decade in Syria.
So, not winning in Ukraine, not baiting Russia to invade, well, that’s okay for now.
There is always another day, another time to try it again. Meanwhile, Ukraine is a captive nation dying. And no one could care less.
(/russia-would-really-not-want-cold-war-2-0/#comment-925601)
Totally agree that it’s all about bleeding Russia.
Here is a RAND report from 2019 that confirms it and even outlines scenarios and tactics that we are seeing today
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
The scenario in Ukraine:
“Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.”
Black Sea scenario:
” Black Sea buildup would involve deploying strengthened North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) anti-access and area denial over the Black Sea—perhaps in the form of long-range, land-based anti-ship missiles—to drive up the cost of defending Russian bases in Crimea and lower the benefit to Russia of having seized this area.”
It’s all about “non-violent cost-imposing options” to “stress, over-extend, unbalance” Russia’s economy and armed forces.
Reading this report made me feel sick. The people who wrote this are deeply disturbed.
Also, Larchmonter, spot on about Erdogan. He is probably very relieved to offload the financial liabilities of his mercenaries on to sucker Zelensky.
Syrian girl
I clicked your Rand link.
The first image is a glorious night shot of Red Square and St Basil’s.
Beautiful.
So let’s write a paper on how we can destroy this.^
The Banality of Evil
Judging by Serbian Girl’s post of the Randd report, the Military Industrial Complex and Nato want to “slowly” encroach up on Russia, like a “python”, without triggering a large war which would give Russia “immediately” the upper hand in the Great Powers “competition” (because of it’s proximity).
Ze’s motivation, on the other hand, is to “cash” in on Western Russophobia by building up tensions with Russia, just enough without getting into a dangerous (for Ze’s government) hot war with Russia.
Russia “starting” a full scale war with Ukraine will give Russia immediate strategic advantage but won’t win her the hearts and minds of Eastern European peoples.
A slow death from being strangled by a python is also no option for Russia.
Only option left for Russia, is to detonate a nuke in the Black Sea as a show of force, if that is technically possible.
A nuke exploding in the Black Sea would release enormous amounts of the toxic gas hydrogen-disulfide (H2S) that would spread with the wind and kill countless people on the Black Sea coast. Russia would never do something so incredibly silly.
And even more relieved to get them out of his country.
If the US still does really want war they must convince Zelensky that he must act. So either they will pressure him with kompromat or they need a spectacular false flag that creates an overwhelming frenzy of outrage against Russia within Ukraine ie a false flag on par with MH17
The cost to Russia of the Syrian operation is minimal in today’s world. They only have a relatively small contingent of mainly air support operating there. I really don’t think it is much of a bleed.
The Ukrainian issue is a beast of a different nature, however. Although the emphasis is always placed on Donbas and the Crimea and US/Ukronazi provocations to encourage a Russian response, it could well be that the real game being played here is by the Russians, who have likely decided that it is now time to take care of this situation permanently. They might well be in the process of implementing a plan to invade Ukraine and providing a triggering event to do it. If Russia believes that they are under existential threat now that NATO is becoming more vocal and more inclined towards Ukrainian membership, or at least a ‘special partner’ relationship, then Russia can only act in defence of its existence. That takes it far beyond a simple Donbas or Crimean issue. My position holds that there will be war whether the US or Ukraine want or not and for entirely different reasons than most propose.
I agree with you Victor
I believe the rhetoric behind closed doors would truly shock most readers .
I have a firm belief the Putin and Lavrov have given the West, NATO an ultimatum
Get out of Ukraine. Simple . Russian peacekeepers will enter Donbass weather the West agrees profile not .
I suggested a false flag by the Russians several weeks ago as a catalyst.
How hard would it be for spetsnaz to capture , commandeer a Ukie armoured grouping and fire a few dozen missiles off ? Bingo .
Absolutely any major offensive by Russia in Ukraine would be a PR disaster for the US and NATO
They will lose Ukraine. So I concur …. Russia is going in
I suppose the ultimate false flag would be to sink both an American and a Russian ship and make it appear that China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela had conspired against them. Is that too far-fetched?
Yes
MOD: Just a note to advise everyone that posts that are too short often end up in the trash. If your post is only a few words, it’s best to at least put it into a sentence. Respectfully, Mod.
This coming war is really a last ditch attempt to stop Nord Stream 2 and sanction Russia even further. Now, Russia has two pipe laying ships currently at work, the Fortuna and the Akademik Cherskiy, with the latter one being more advanced with dynamic positioning capability – it can lay pipe much faster than the Fortuna. I’m going to guess they should be able to do 1.5 km per day (combined) on average, taking into account weather delays. From what I’ve seen, there seems to be about 110 km left to complete the maritime pipe laying work. That means they need about 73 days to complete the pipe laying in the water.
The reason I mention this, is that the Ukronazis don’t have much time left to start their offensive if they want to force a reaction from Russia and use fake news and false flags to demonize, thus forcing Germany to abandon the pipeline.
I expect drone attacks to happen soon, which will be unsuccessful, and then false flag by the Ukronazis (something similar to the Breadline Massacre hoax in Sarajevo) which will then be blamed on Russia. They will place a mine somewhere where people are lined up, detonate it and then blame it on Russian shelling or mortars. The muslims in Bosnia did this, and Canadian General Lewis MacKenzie (a great man) said in his book that this was a hoax, mortars could not have fallen with the the required trajectory in the narrow streets from Serb positions, and the injuries were the kind from a land mine – not mortar shells. The people working with the Ukronazis are the same neocon war criminals who dreamed up the Breadline Massacre hoax, so I would not be surprised to see a similar incident. The Russians should be very aware of this and have full surveillance of these areas to show proof of sabotage. I hope I’m wrong.
A very well thought out response. With all of the internal problems that the Ukraine is facing time is not on the government’s side so a false flag attack on their part is a distinct possibility. Still, do they really want to start a war that they are guaranteed to lose? If they get cold feet then a false flag attack engineered by the western intelligence agencies is likely. What real value does the Ukraine offer the west other than to provide cannon fodder?
I forgot to read the second part of the question. Years ago the Ukrainian forces fired artillery into the villages on the Russian side of the border. MSM very frequently forgets to mention these incidents, but they are very good about telling everything about what the Russians do even making their legitimate retaliations into an aggression.
Also maybe they will claim that the Russians shot down another airliner, used bioweapons and or wmd’s , or not being a “democracy” –that always is a good one. The propaganda that the Western news and militaries use so much it is really hard to see which lie they might use today. They have so many..
If the US could figure out a way to lure a large number of Russian ships back into the Black Sea and then close the Bosphorus Strait permanently…that would sure upset a lot of Russians! Figure out a way to blame it on Ukraine and you would then have an instant war.
Regarding entry to Black sea via Caspian Sea: I just read recently that in the 1950’s there were two rivers which are connected by largish canals, this means that Russia can and has moved naval landing vessels through to the sea of Azov and has these ships ready to cross to Mariupol on very short notice. I understand that much of military intelligence is shocked by this as they thought the Caspian sea was landlocked.
Oh, I’m so glad you asked!
Here’s my idea,
mine and Tom Clancy’s, actually.
They (UA secret service) would pick a neighbouring NATO member state’s national minority, who live in the Ukraine right now, I would say, mostly children, and arrange them a full show visit to Kiev in the name of “Ukraine, the European State that embraces diversity and ethnic minorities”.
Can be some national heritage site. An office building of the Rada. Maybe some handshakes with some junior beurocrats.
All this on a national holyday, at best somewhere near to a TV crew to get semi-live coverage.
And then, surprise! blow them up with a bomb.
A country in shock. The free world mourns together. All signs lead to terrorists, Ze expressing utter shock upon such evil, with unison, the leaders of the NATO member east european country, who s minority was slain.
They shoulder condemn whoever purpoted such villany, and swear wengeance with no regard of etnicity, in the name of the civilized world and denouncing extremism.
Misteriously quick inspection follows, the suspects found. I suppose some so called novorussian divergent(s), cought quite red handed, but unfortunately, all killed by the oh-so-righteusly-angry policemen.
Oh tough luck, one is alive. (I read Red Storm rising some years ago) televised confession.
Elaborate plans would be found, gracious Heavens, ties directly to Vladimir Vladimirovits. For sure, The B’s words frickin justified. Who would have thought? You think its dementia, but its wisdom, stupid.
The reports come in shortly after that the Russia-occupied territories may spawn a plethora of such terrorist cells all across the EU. On Putins direct orders, of course.
The NATO member state (not neceserly complicit) follows the flow, demands justice, and swears to go in the brawl alone, to help cease the unjust suffering of the ukranian people from the subversive renegate republics, and to proactively contribute reinstating the territorial integrity of the UA. Might add, historical. This sole word would really turn the EU public on.
The UK sides with the NATO member state, saying, For such a noble cause, we draw blood together!
All the western world hails the rightous effort, the just cause, the reunification of the UA.
They march singing to beat the evil terrorists, the killers out, who enslave even their own kind, in the battlefield-turned Donbass.
We ll see what there happens, but the UA could act like they have moral authority. They could shoot first, and think its justified. The whole western world would think, they are the good guys.
I dispise myself for such ideas. But you asked for it, and i feel the PTB use always innocent bystanders, and I feel like they have already some targets picked here in the neighborhood, some east european country they also have an issue or two to settle.
I would really regret, if such outrageus planning would send ( being east european NATO member myself) my homeland on a collision course with Russia, and its true and honorable people. ( and tough army).
I truly hope the fewest possible people die. Thats zero, I checked.
God is just.Whoever lies in this conflict, will loose.
Dear Saker,
This new format is outstanding! All the best!
Unfortunately I think your scenario is very realistic. Thanks for educating us.
A very plausible scenario which reminds me of the tragic aeroplane crash in Smolensk exactly 11 years ago that wiped out 96 people representing the political, economic and defence elites in Poland including the then Polish President Lech Kaczynski and his wife, the head of the National Bank of Poland, and all the most senior heads of the Polish armed forces.
Of course Saker readers may be well aware that the flight crew of the plane had been advised by Russian ATC to land elsewhere because of difficult weather conditions, and that the Polish President among others might have been present in the cockpit. The President had been known in the past to interfere with flight crews’ decisions and to have threatened the pilot with the sack if he disobeyed the President again after a landing incident in Georgia that could have resulted in a crash and several injured or dead passengers. Readers may also be aware that this crash continues to be a sticking point between Poland and Russia, and that from time to time Poland keeps retelling and readjusting the narrative so as to insinuate Russian responsibility for the crash.
Don’t despise yourself for thinking of a scenario similar to one that’s already happened and which is still being worked over.
I don’t see the logic of terrorist aggression unless you are confident of winning the war on the battlefield and not just on selective moral principle grounds, the latter goes on forever, the former not so much.
Don’t you (you all) realize that the intelligence agencies of Ukraine and the US actually READ this blog??
So, what is going on here is a brainstorm of ideias to SOLVE a main problem of THEIRS – how would be the best way to drag Russia into attacking Ukraine??
Probably, they just DON’T have a sufficiently good answer. I’m really sorry to write this, but… Why would us help them in perfecting their strategy?
The Stasi and East Germany’s totalitarian regime collapsed partly because the Stasi officers themselves read and saw enough to know they were supporting evil. One has to hope it is similar with Western Intel Agency officers & agents. Most have families and some stake in the future for our grandchildren.
At very least they should consider a future where their role could be replaced by programmed AI that has zero conscience.
I saw the request by the Saker more as a way to “uncover” the possible ukrainian terrorist actions (once publicized, the likelihood of it happening actually decreases).
But the ukrainian side has already done terrorist acts. When purposedly killing a 5-year old child.
A drone has cameras, and so the drone operatos see in real time the targets; they purposedly targeted, and killed, an small child. For me the purpose was to provoke anger on the NR side, so that they attack first. The fact that the DLNR army didn’t launched an offensive after that provocative terrorist action is actually a good thing, it means there is a command able to keep brain cold even in such painful situation, and a chain of command and soldiers showing discipline; that is a good thing because those qualities are key for victory.
It may actually have the opposite effect. We are showing them that we know (first and foremost how evil they are!) what sort of things they are capable of doing. We might be able to figure out some of their strategies and thus effectively thwart them by making them more widely known. Given the strategies they have already come up with many years ago, eg: rand.org document above, I’d say they have forethought most of the possible scenarios anyway. But yes, what you said is true too, they may get ideas from here too.
Well if the US want war they can have it by tomorrow and the same is valid for Russia – Ukraine I guess have to ask and obey or else – When you look at all the past false flags and provocation you can clearly see, that they pretty much don’t care to hide or cover up stuff – the recent crisis has shown how easy people can be manipulated and directed – to push people into war is as history tells us also quite simple – you will always have enough people who basically believe everything the government is telling them and who follow their marching orders – What you believe it’s news and when you start thinking or talking about it, is actually already old news – if there is war to come, it’s already decided
Dear Ukro/US intelligence agencies,
I suggest that you should consider carrying out a successful attempt on, say, John Bolton’s life and blaming you-know-who for it. Of course Nussiminen has nothing against an old peaceful gentleman such as John Bolton; Nussiminen is in it for the money. I thank you in advance for your resolute action and humbly ask for a puny 1% of your annual budget. Done deal?
It goes both ways. If the CIA actually sends people to read this blog, isn’t possible the KGB does the same? Is it also logical to assume that if somebody here develops a scenario the KGB did not plan for, after reading this blog they can develop countermeasures?
What comes next?
If history is any guide
False flag incoming
False flag incoming
False flag incoming
I think they’re gonna try to wait until the rasputitsa has passed and the roads and countryside are firm enough for motor transport. I guess the Nazis have learned at least one thing about invading Russia!
Perhaps use an infiltration squad to snatch a high-profile figure and display him in Kiev, prior to turning him over to Uncle Sam? Snowden?
Nothing much is going to happen at this point – Zelensky try to shake things up a bit, that some financial aid is rolling in – a little bit of hide & seek here and there – maybe another Minsk dinner !? Whatever – soon we will here back from the Middle East and Erdogan is going to shake things up as well
Dear Saker or anyone else who has the info,
You mentioned the successful track record of Ukrainian Special Forces operations. Do you have any links or articles detailing this?
Are you alluding to the successful assassinations of Aleksey Mozgovoy, Motorola, Givi, and eventually Zakharchenko himself??
I did come across several Instagram posts of Ukrainian SOF being trained by what appeared to be American SF…they seem to be well equipped too.
Also, what role would Russian Special Forces(SSO) play in taking back Novorussia and Malorussia?
And why haven’t the Russian SSO been active behind the frontlines, for example taking out HVT’s in Kiev?
Saker (& other Russian speakers)
What do you think was going on here. Seems two convoys off large lorries. One crosses border into Russia, one into Ukraine. They pass each other at one point.
Very strange. Video seems to be from OSCE drone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1028037035335053312
1- The video is from 2018…
2- In 2019 Russia was still delivering humanitarian assistance to Donbass
https://tass.com/world/1083993
Thanks
Russia didn’t take the bait when turks shot down their Su-24, so something mostly symbolic wouldn’t do, obviously.
Perhaps non-stop artillery or rocket fire on civilian targets, either in LDNR or Russia proper. And if they use bacteriological weapon from one of those biolabs ringed around Russia, than crushing response is inevitable. That would force Russia on offensive for sure, but would probably result in total annihilation of ukrainian leadership, plus whoever is responsible on Nato side. Still, possible scenario.
You ask “what kind of diversionary/terrorist provocations (as opposed to purely military moves) could the Ukronazis pull off?”
A STUPID ONE They want to have it out with their big brother . There is a tower for Zelinski somewhere.
Thank you for this ongoing discussion format Saker, it is awesome.
I’m not sure what kind of false flag event might come about, but I have a pretty good feeling that the Ukrainian people on both sides will do a good job in undermining whatever false flag there may be. They have done such things in the past to frustrate the progression of war in their country, and will probably do so now.
Russia has enough tools to react to provocations, lawmaker says.
According to Leonid Slutsky, Russia is being provoked to get involved in a war.
https://tass.com/politics/1276451
Nothing will happen, and Zelensky is gaining on the ‘P R’ front unfortunately.Went to Ankara, Erdogang gave him full support, will never recognize Crimea as Russian,got drones and maybe some jihadists?
Merkel gave him support, treat Putin like an ‘obligé’.Will meet Macron monday in Paris, then on to London and Ottawa.Got full NATO and Biden clique support as well.Not to forget the usual suspects(Poland,Australia, Baltics…)
Then they will try one more time to expel RF from PACE for Navalny etc…
https://tass.com/politics/1276449
More US and EU sanction against Russian aggression, coming soon.
New US envoy sent to Berlin to kill NS2 once and for all.The US will even pay for the insurance fees(billions)as it will be Germany as US colony which will cancel the contract.
Expect any false flag or in the Donbass, Crimea(they tried this week) or even in Russia via wahabists or ukronazis.
If necessary in Syria, some more fake ‘hospitals’ bombed by RF, or the usual fake chem attack.
They are even on with fake Sputnik V deaths now.
Russia should sue EU Observer & Andrew Rettman, who invented 4 cases of” secret deaths from Sputnik V in Russia”:
https://euobserver.com/world/151483
No proof at all, whatsoever, only a poisonous bla-bla..
Attempts to discredit Sputnik V vaccine will intensify – expert
https://tass.com/russia/1276457
Even the Minsk idiot is entering the game: Tikhanovskaya said she wants to meet with Zelensky: “Such a meeting is currently being discussed. We do our best to ensure that this meeting takes place. #Belarus still has a chance to become independent from #Russia.”
They seem to be desperate and very nervous as anything they tried, failed miserably.
Until there is a STRONG reaction from Putin, they will double down.
Everyone should wonder why is that the US/NATO combo need to hire such simpletons as Zelensky and Tikhanouskaya in the first place…
I don’t see any analysis of the fact the US has had the position of “Privilege” in the past to be virtually impregnable due to the “Moats” of the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans?
So they could create Wars anywhere they desired with no possibility of getting any blood letting on their home soil. This now is not the case and I would think any sane Military Advisor would be well aware of that reality.
So in the case of Ukraine 8500 Klms away from Washington a country so paranoid about their Exceptionalness the thought of both Russia and China being capable of destroying an American City would be an apoplectic nightmare, and Ukraine could disappear from the earth before they would provoke such a scenario?
For Ukrainians to die in swarms is of no consequence as long as terror and mayhem is a continuing fact of life for those 8500 Klms away.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
You know no matter what Kiev is going to cry victim. If I was President Putin I wouldn’t waste my time talking to Washington or their NATO vassals. I would go straight to Zelensky or at least deliver a message directly to Zelensky and let him know in no uncertain terms that if his people lay a finger on Russian soil (including Crimea) that they will all be hunted down and his name will be on that list. Then I would go on to say that if Kiev did not immediately cease hostilities toward the LDNR that I would give the leadership of the LDNR to go on the offensive with Russian Air and Artillery support to take as much territory as they see fit for a future Novorossiyan State.
It’s clear the Americans don’t care if Ukraine is dismantled. It’s also clear that the EU/Nato nations are too weak to stand up to the Americans. That’s why the Russians need to let those Ukrainians with wealth and power in Ukraine know that not only do they stand to lose all their material wealth in Ukraine by supporting an assault on Russia and/or the LDNR but their lives as well.
That’s the last hope of avoiding a war at this point.
Best option so far but at this point its worth waiting to see how Germany jumps.
On another line of thought?
As I posted on another site a few weeks ago, …… If Putin has a nightmare of a problem it has to be Erdogan and now his statement about Ukraine being part of NATO. so read the Article in RT…..
https://www.rt.com/news/520710-turkey-ukraine-nato-crimea-cooperation/ …….
Because with nut cases like Erdogan and Zelenskiy they might try to shut down the Black sea for Russia as a continuing headache.
I have stated several times …… Russia should take out Ukraine to the Dnieper and Odessa and I don’t think the US would dare intervene.
Conflict in the Ukraine would give Erdy an opening to close the Bosphorus, which would curtail Russia’s ability to resupply Syria. Erdy has much to gain from this, especially with the fuel crisis in Syria.
Which would mean……. .War with Turkey?
So to prevent that, in my view, upending the reason for the US to visit Ukraine by taking Odessa would shut down Erdogan?
High profile Ukie assassination, maybe even Ze, which would ‘highly likely’ be ‘military grade poisoning as ordered by Putin itself’.
Sounds cheesy ridiculous but it does have an ‘exceptional’ track record.
TEP.
Igor Strelkov was right after all.
When Novorussian forces had the momentum and when they could have taken a large chunk of eastern Ukraine, they were not provided with the required military and financial support to sustain the push any further. In fact their efforts were curtailed and later most of the leadership got assassinated while Putin and his so called Eurasian Integrationists tried to woo the west.
Now Ukrofascists are back with a vengeance and they have got nothing to lose and any outcome is a winwin situation. The Anglo-zionists will fight Russia to the last Ukie. GOOD LUCK
Yes I think Russia made a major strategic mistake when they took Crimea without creating a landbridge to the peninsula. I do think that Russia should have helped the Novorossiyan forces push all the way to the Dniper and maybe take all of the Black Sea shoreline to Odessa and even to Transnistria and create a security zone along the border of Russia and Ukraine the way the Turks did in Syria. That would have left a landlocked rump Banderistan completely dependent upon the West for survival. When the Russians took Crimea did it spark WW3? No it did not. Russia and it’s Novorossiyan friends should have taken as much of Ukraine as needed back then to keep both nations and peoples safe and secure from the Banderists.
Saker has responded to this again and again and again both since 2014, and particularly in these ongoing Open Threads.
I will be presumptuous and direct you to read before you post.
Can someone link this guy to the post from Saker and Larchmonter445 responding at length to this same herr-derr this is what Russia shoulda done…………
(I’d link, but I’m techno-dinosaur)
I don’t think it’s a win win when you are grinted meet after
This is a little indirect – but one way or another Russia needs to get smarter. How did the current situation come about?
When the S.U. broke up, as far as I know, Russia could have absorbed Novorussia and Crimea into the RF perfectly legally. There was no law saying the borders of the new state of Ukraine had to be identical to the borders of the Ukraine SSR.
Having not done that they might have noted the many books and articles by western strategists announcing, ‘we want Ukraine and intend to take it’. They might have assigned a few intelligence agents to keep an eye on things so they could have seen the coup coming well in advance and taken measures to prevent it.
Having not done that, at the time of the coup they could have set up a government in exile somewhere, which would legally ask for Russian help to restore the legitimate government which Russia could have legally done at that time.
Having not done that they could have refused to recognize the illegal government and sided with the people of Donbass.
Having not done that they now have a mess on their hands which there may be no way out of.
Am I wrong? I’d really like to know.
When the S.U. broke up………
… When your house is on fire, few people stand around chatting casually with an architect about plans for the rebuild.
Can I suggest “Shock Therapy” by Naomi Klein.
Others Sakerites may suggest a few other texts on Russia in survival mode.
The Cold War did not end with Russia and the US suddenly deciding to hold hands and sing kumbyah.
The soviets/Russians lost the Cold War, and like all vanquished nations, they were raped and humiliated.
That you saw little about this in western media does not mean it was not brutal and deadly.
The climb back to where Russia is now is truly heroic.
For which there is only one person to acknowledge for crafting that “Climb back”?
I’ve been keeping a casual eye on US/Russian(Soviet) adversity for a long time. I worked for a defense contractor in the 80’s and had grandparents who fled Tsarist Russia and Poland in the nineteenth century, so it was personal if not professional. Like a lot of my generation, I naively believed in the ‘Peace Dividend’ after the dismantling of the SU and was horrified by the berserk response of the ‘Good Guys’ (that was supposed to be us.) Russia only just started recovering from all of that in the last 20 years and, as many have observed, their recovery has been phenomenal. Phenomenal but not instantaneous.
Russia today is not the Russia of 20 years ago, 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago. They have been repairing the train while speeding down the tracks with people are shooting at them. The amazing thing is that they have been as successful as they have and made as few mistakes as they have. I think this has been in large part due to their (Putin’s) reluctance to overstep themselves while still being decisive. Caution and the reluctance to leap before they look have been their greatest strategy. It’s great to speculate about how much damage Russia could do to the powers who richly deserve it, but there are always the questions: Who suffers (never the ones who deserve it,) what price must be paid, and what comes next? Caution can make the next part easier whereas overreacting can make it a nightmare. I think Russia has consistently followed that adage.
But now that the Russian train appears to be mostly repaired, things could be different.
i disagree that the next move will be a false flag, i think the ukrainians may try a play at a truce (for reasons posted atleast once before in this thread and i think we are all aware of, see the post by samir). which for starters, would be logical, its quite clear that the west and kiev underestimated russia and her response to kievs buildup and behavior, now, even the most insane banderite must know they dont stand a chance. the most rational response is to go to a negotiating table. where, what happens, whether it leads to peace (im not **that** much of an optimist), a temporary ceasefire or nothing is not something i can predict..
i know many here might contest my assertion that ukies are capable of logic, but its worth keeping in mind, underestimating your enemy is a mistake that frequently happens only once.
there is now a good chance that this pauses with a ceasefire, but also a very good chance it devolves to war by whatever trigger.. its honestly rather strange..
and to answer the topic, they could try anything, if they do, they could simply shell their own posistions or a civilian area and claim casus belli, stalin did it in the mainila shelling to justify the winter war, sometimes it doesnt need to be something grand and special, whether thats in the donbass specificaly or on ukraines borders with russia in crimea or elsewhere.
Hmmm. A biological incident inside Russia or a Russian linked lab in an ally. The bug itself would be tied to a Russian developed weapon. This would buttress the notion that Covid was spawned from a Chinese lab. It would also help to be egregious enough to sway Germany and France back into the fold.
I hope for the best but I do fear the worst.
Agree, crossed our mind here as well, and we are hoping along.
As usual on the Saker blog, most of the time it is not needed to write any input down because another quicker (thinking) person devoted time and energy to do so.
To expand on this v-Russ option .. a “Russian variant” may infect the built up and locked and loaded Ukro forces.
IT is specifically attacking stressed and or angry white Slavic males of “pure” Ukro-genes.
It doesn’t need to be deadly, just coincidentally striking critical timing, and identifiable as a “variant” locking Ukro foot soldiers to unload on the latrines for weeks while the press finds the culprits to this dishonorable & forbidden way of warfare..
It is lab designed obviously. That explains why Russia could come up so fast with registered remedies nobody in the West could believe it wasn’t propaganda.
I pray no tricks are being played on the power plants’ ever over-filled “depleted fuel” swimming pools. Wherever profit / economic decline meets nuclear power you can expect these dream targets for terrorists to be present.
The fact that it didn’t happen yet means either terrorists are not creative, smart or lacked the drone technologie, or maybe don’t like to poison the planet forever with an action that can easily be covered up. Maybe Turkey could provide.
Maybe plausible deniability is preferable over a direct tactical nuke missile, if “Biden” is phased out and this becomes the summer of nuclear capable harpies (Harris-Nuland-Clinton-.. ), all bets are off as they may gamble scorned earth, hoping it will “stay local EU problem” and “Russia did it”. Watch the winds.
3rd , as USA seems to have to many “useless” ships, that are very expensive to maintain running operational recycle, one or two may be actively looking to meet some anti-ship missile of some kind.. just to show a nice hole in the bow… especially on the confusing moment if there were to start some limited exchange of fire by rockets they could put oil on the fire this way.
Remember MH17, how tough the debate about bullets vs missile and which side did it.
Maybe not now but in the near future an easy Europe 9/11 in terms of rallying the USA populations over the death of hundreds or thousands of brave sailors, and force the EU West to sympathize unconditionally would be to have a USA carrier attacked in EU’s or China’s backyard. And of course giving reason for an unspeakable trillion number dollars plan to replace them carriers with something cooler and more dominating.
I think VVP has once again won this battle without firing a bullet. All signs (to me) point to this getting defused to nothing more than noise in a week or two. Something else will happen elsewhere and the US will move on. That’s it. This was a bust.
Some examples from the past include shooting down a plane and blaming Russia and assassinating LDNR leaders. The Gulf of Tonkin incident fabricated an attack on a U.S. ship. Can Russia be blamed for the loss of Ukrainian incubators?
The Saker,
This series of ‘open threads’ on Donbas/Ukraine problem has ingenuity, and very timely. On Donbas and Ukraine problem, I am quoting below a comment submitted by me way back in August’2014… After 7 years, many of the statements have been proved correct, and I’m still confident about overall appropriateness of this scenario analysis now and after another 5 years.
”
whether the 99.99% can stop the Anglo-Zionist global gang of elites is a question mark, because most of the people across globe are primarily bothered about only their income and food, and seldom try to understand that the plutocracy use ‘democracy’ to rob them left and right. Let’s do a strategic analysis to explore outcomes of geopolitical, economic, military issues in east Europe and Eurasia as on date:
ISSUE 1: Trade between Russia and EU countries going down >>
Russian action option-‘a’: Stop all trade relations including supply of energy with EU by next 1 month to teach EU govt. a lesson.
Russian action option-‘b’: DON’T do anything, and let EU (managed/ cajoled by USA) do whatever they like about trading with Russia, Russia to take retaliatory actions only as response.
We can see that, Most likely outcomes on option ‘a’ are same as most likely outcomes on option ‘b’:
• USA will continue to force EU countries to reduce trade and business with Russia.
• EU-Russian trade drastically reduces by next 1 year period, to stabilize at much lower than before.
• Russian Natural Gas delivery to EU thru Ukraine transit reduces by next 1 month.
• South Stream pipeline project gets blocked by EU countries
• All global Energy companies like BP backs out from oil and gas projects in Russia
• USA push all EU countries to Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership thereby capturing the business space which could have seen Russian and Chinese state-owned companies alongside of EU based multinational companies [after Trump became POTUS, USA withdrew from multilateral trade-investments pacts of TTIP and TPP]
• Global media owned by USA and EU one percent elites continuously vilify Russia, malign Russian President as a militarist leader, and glorify Nazi-rightist gangs backed by current Ukraine government
ISSUE 2: South-east Ukraine (Novorossian) unrest >>
Russian action option-‘a’: To stop atrocities on ethnic Russians in Novorossia, deploy military in east Ukraine OR provide covert military support to separatists OR officially recognise Novorossian state and then, send overt military support as an ally. Thereafter pull-out, when Ukraine accepts Novorossian independence or autonomous status
Russian action option-‘b’: DON’T provide covert military aid, and continue to provide small support to Novorossian armed groups till they either lose or get into protracted war, & DON’T deploy Russian military in Novorossia even if Ukrainian oligarchy slaughters Novorossians.
We can see that, Most likely outcomes on option ‘a’ are same as most likely outcomes on option ‘b’:
• USA and EU will impose more stringent sanctions that will bite Russian trade and banking, defense, energy business, manufacturing. Russia will face economic stagnation for next 3 – 4 years.
• USA and NATO provides military support to Ukraine government in terms of military hardware, training, small specialist mercenary groups with boots-on-ground
• Ukraine deploys all types of military hardware and deploys combat forces to slaughter east Ukrainian population and capture the land
• Ukraine becomes a NATO-aligned country, not a regular member
• Global media owned by USA and EU Anglo-Zionists and Elite Allies continuously vilify Russia, malign Russian President as a militarist leader, and glorify Nazi-rightist gangs backed by current Ukraine government
We must notice there are other possible outcomes also:
Most likely outcomes on option ‘a’, additionally:
• Novorossia state gets created with a pointer to the history of Russian Tsar empire who truly brought this land within Russia
• Large number of ethnic Russians will survive along with their culture and religion
• USA and EU gets less than expected ‘real estate’ in Ukraine as 25% of land is gone to Novorossia
• European countries who are part of EU but not NATO currently, will join NATO. Ukraine joins NATO as ‘eastern frontier’. NATO outposts installed at Kyiv oblast in Ukraine.
We must also notice most likely outcomes on option ‘b’, additionally
• Large scale ethnic cleansing of Russians in the eastern and southern Ukraine so that Russian culture and Orthodox religion becomes dead there
• NATO outposts installed at current Russia – Ukraine border within 1 year
ISSUE 3: Military built-up by USA+NATO plutocracy 1% ruling elites >>
Russian action option-‘a’: Deploy advanced nuclear missiles, navy, air-force, air defense systems in Russia, and sell the same to friendly countries. Provide all types of military support to Iran and Syria.
Russian action option-‘b’: DON’T give much importance to modernization of Russian military. DON’T provide air defense system to Iran, and 5G fighter engines to China.
Again we can see that, Most likely outcomes on option ‘a’ are same as most likely outcomes on option ‘b’:
• USA and NATO will finish deployment of sophisticated ABM system by next 3 years surrounding Russian territory, which will nullify the MAD concept that was instrumental for keeping military balance between USA and USSR in the post-WW II world. Also, very advanced satellite-based C5ISTAR capabilities, and robotics-driven combat will be deployed by next 3 years by USA and NATO.
• European countries who are part of EU but not NATO currently, will join NATO. Ukraine becomes NATO-aligned country. NATO outposts installed at Kyiv oblast in Ukraine.
• NATO strengthen existing bases in east Europe from Baltic Sea to Black Sea space. NATO deploys complete ABM systems in Europe.
• USA and NATO further strengthen all military bases in west Asia. USA and EU continue to arm Saudi Arab with all sorts of advanced defense equipments, aircrafts, and ABM system.
• NATO operationalize new bases in north Africa under AFRICOM.
• USA and NATO maintains couple of resourceful military bases there, which can be used to carry out future air-strike on central, south, and east Asian countries.
• Global media owned by USA and EU one percent elites continuously vilify Russia, malign Russian President as a militarist leader, and glorify Nazi-rightist gangs backed by current Ukraine government
We must notice there are other possible outcomes also.
Most likely outcomes on option ‘a’, additionally
• Iran provides strategic support to Russia for stability in the west and central Asian regions including Afghanistan. It can play useful role for stability in south Asia also.
• Russia is able to maintain the Tartus naval base in Syria, which will be key instrument of power projection in west Asia and north Africa.
• Russia builds up strategic defense required to defend its landmass against any aggression. It creates alliances, and bases which can support if Russia is under invasion by USA and NATO.
• Due to Russian readiness, USA and NATO will not invade any Russian territory in near future.
Most likely outcomes on option ‘b’, additionally
• Iran gets weakened, and can’t act as regional power against USA+NATO+Israel+Saudi Arabia domination. Can’t support Russia for stability in the west and central Asian regions and Afghanistan.
• Russia unable to build up strategic defense. Russia creates half-hearted alliances that lack commitment, and creates bases that lack advanced military systems.
• Due to Russian unpreparedness, USA and NATO will invade Russian territory like Crimea, Kaliningrad, Caucasus, and eastern region of Siberia, may be within a decade. First, they will create separatist groups who will ‘fight for democracy, human rights, independence’ in these regions, thereafter, to defend those groups USA and NATO will invade Russian territory, and dismember it.
“
I’m not sure Strait-Bat ever played cricket or not, because I’ve never watched or played a game of Cricket as complicated as that rolled out above?
It would appear Strait-Bat, has not noticed a player on Russia’s side with a population of 1.4 Billion is screwing the opposition side slowly into a position they could accept the game has been washed out by rain?
Try and understand one thing……………… China has just guaranteed Iran’s independence for 10 years the other week and Lavrov and Wang Yi were almost kissing oneanother in China a week ago?
So if you want Plan A and Plan B and Plan ….. the entire Alphabet, there appears to be a single Plan and its “Xiputin” and the outcome of that would seem to me to be one more reliable than any of those which came from someone who could ruin any simple game of cricket?
I have quoted from my comment submitted 7 years ago at this blog-site. It is true that, Iran received a new lifeline due to an extraordinary all-round strategic partnership with China that got officially signed recently, but the main theme of my note in 2014 was Russia-Ukraine dispute, and the same is true even today. Iran and China are not main actors.
Russia will have to face (another round of) wrath of the zionist capitalist world order – today or tomorrow or day-after. Multiple fronts are open – Idlib (Syria), north-east Syria, Caucasus, Crymea, Donbas, Transnistria, Arctic. Russia has to chose the preferred locations and act. As I noted in the original simulation, Russia’s silence won’t bring any positive result except that it has got more time to prepare.
Hi,
I agree that “that was then…. AND THIS IS NOW!” makes Straight-Bat’s analysis no longer applicable.
Russia continues to mass on the Ukrainian Border. Ukraine has essentially declared war on Russia.
The continued massing has put a wrench in the gears of the UkroNazi/NATO machinery.
Continued denial by the Russians of adverse intentions vis a vis Ukraine, while building field hospitals adjacent to the Ukrainian Border, is a master stroke.
As I said earlier….. Russia is massing massively…. whatever is planned is not a limited engagement and return to the status quo ante…..
Russia needs to firmly limit NATO’s expansion on it’s western border for it’s own security. There is only one scenario which does this. That requires Russia taking control of the entirety of Ukraine.
As for the cost of re-educating the Banderistas, China has shown how to accomplish such a re-education campaign.
As for rebuilding Ukraine’s industrial base….. why? So Nuland etal., can pump billions back into Ukraine clandestinely for the purpose of re-taking Ukraine with it’s reconstituted industries??? Isn’t that what they attempted to do in Belarus last year??? With made at home stooges, willing to sell their mothers for 20 pieces of silver???
I believe Russia will crush the UkroNazi war machine, with great loss of Ukrainian military lives, using a combined arms assault, on a massive scale, not seen since WWII for one purpose and one purpose only…..
To make it abundantly clear to Poland/Romania/Lithuania/Estonia/Latvia/Holland/UK/Belgium/Finland/Sweden/Norway that playtime is over. They want peace and win-win…. Great! They want confrontation??? Then armageddon…. no quarter given….. That will be the message…
Again, this is NATO’s party…. no need to rush…. time to wait for the ground to firm…. Time for COVID to continue devastating NATO economies…… Time for restive NATO populations to transition into open revolt over lockdowns… COVID passports…. Time for pandemonium to reign on the US-Mexican border…. Time for Taiwan/Japan/ASEAN to contemplate the new kid on the block’s CBGs abilities/patrols in the Sea Of Japan, East Sea, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea… only the Lioning now, the two others by mid – summer?? Meanwhile the US scraps the Truman, and 10 CVAs are in dry dock being repaired, leaving 2 operational..
Latest from SCS… China deployed dozens of patrol boats there… equipped with 30mm gatling gun and ASHMs
Phillippines will be offered a carrot. Something similar to the one offered Vietnam. Purpose to encourage Duarte to scrap the Defense treaty with the US…..
Russia will negotiate and sign mutual economic treaty with Iran…. SCO will admit Iran…. India will stop blocking this… via more carrots…
OBOR will continue…. nothing like success…. now impossible to ignore in Laos and Pakistan…. all those who resisted BRI development projects now looking like fools… Thailand first to fold and join the party… Myammar soon to sort itself out, and embrace Mysisone Dam project and the others…
Austria joining Hungary and Slovakia….. buying Sputnik V…. AZ’s stuff on indefinite hold…. Italy will be next…
No need to rush…..
INDY
This was written seven years ago. It was a pretty good effort.
In hindsight, we can say that on issue 1 pretty much as happened as predicted. On issue 2 some of it has occurred but not all. On issue 3, I think we can say that Russia was way ahead of these predictions and went on to change the dynamic. The US actions have been close to predictions.
However in 7 years we have seen
1. Russia intervene in Syria and demonstrate weapons
2.The totally unpredictable behaviour of Turkey
3. The bizarre time of Trump which refocused the USA to China away from Russia
4. The spectacular growth of China and especially its military – navy which now outnumbers US
5. Putin’s March 1 speech where he showed of new weapons
6. An obvious China/Russia/Iran axis and a clear public shift of China away from the US
7. Less predictable Z replacing Poroshenko in Ukraine
8. COVID which has seen China emerge confident and renewed, the USA and probably Iran devastated and Russia badly affected. Europe also in a muddle.
9. Relative loss of US prestige due to flagging economy and laughable COVID response.
It seems to me that the Biden administration, basically ignored the 4 years of Trump and tried to pick up exactly where they were in 2016 however of the list above only the first two were in place, but the USA seems not to have noticed the changes.
I suspect that Nuland and co picked up the Ukraine narrative where it was when Obama left office with enthusiasm for taking out Russia. Cooler military heads have actually grasped the relevance of points 3-9
The best way to combat the Ukronazi banderistan is to directly hit its western financial bakers and billionaire individuals who are intent on privatizing the entire resources and life throughout our planet and that comes by taking the right of using the US dollar as the world trading currency away from the spoiled US child.
I would expect mostly spiteful acts by the combined imperial force: spiteful acts in Syria, bomber flights close to the Russian border, provocations against NS2, drones and other aviation over Donbas, constantly shelling the Donbas population, naval provocations, waving more Nazi flags and symbols, legislative attacks against the Russian population in Ukraine, activating something in Georgia again, attacks against Belarus again, possibly another provocation against the Crimean bridge, hacker attacks.
The CIA masters like rewarming already existing and rotting assets and “cook” them for a new “meal”.
The main thing will be a large information campaign, many new sanctions, and further deterioration of diplomatic relationships. Lapdog activation, like the UK, would be seen again.
Hi Saker !
This sentence –
“Keep in mind that the Ukie special services have a proven track of successful clandestine operations.”
trained and supplied by Israel
A false flag against Russia wouldn’t get Russia to respond – at least not with a declaration of war or an invasion. But that’s what they need.
So for me – the most probable false flag attack would be against Ukrainian troops. Some poor young recruits – preferably good looking and with more Russian sounding names for the newspaper pictures: “Putin’s mercs did it again! Why do you kill your brothers?”. Or they just bomb a little village near the front line. The Ukrainian offensive comes hours later.
In the name of freedom and democracy.
They would open fire at the whole front and try a break trough, I would guess a bit north of Mariupol, in the hope for good news at the beginning: “Ukrainian Army reaches Russian border – victory is near, rebels flee to Russia!”
And then the evil Russikies come and – oh these bastards – they clean up Donbas and the military infrastructure of Ukraine is destroyed in 12-24 hours. Donezk forces reach Slavjansk a week later.
Western press will cry invasion and we will go trough the torture of listening to politicians and reading all tasteless fairy tales about cruel separatists and crying Ukrainian mothers.
The evil and gruesome calculation: They know the Russians will react swiftly to protect the population of Donbas. And because everything will go fast, all the “narratives” mix up to this one headline: Russian INVASION! What will America do? From there on….nobody knows.
We can just hope that some Ukrainian generals and the Clown Z love their lives a bit.
Gunnar,
Your scenario is the likeliest one. If we put ourselves in the shoes of the NATO / Uncle Shmuel war planners, they need a provocation which will unequivocally make the Novorossians look bad and evil, with a nice photoshoot going for it.
In terms of options we would have :
– a chemical attack à la Ghouta 2013. Not likely, as it will be hard to convince Western masses that the rebels do have such means, even if you could try the “evil Putin KGB pals sold top-secret Soviet chemical weapons” angle. A bit too tawdry.
– an attack on an Ukrainian school near the demarcation line. I think this would be the best play for the Orcs. The narrative would be : evil separatists have attempted a breakthrough against UAF and indiscriminately shelled a small Ukrainian village, blowing up the school and even the hospital. Lots of pictures, videos, crying, bloody children, desperate babushkas crying in front of the camera… A Douma-like event. You would pick one of the dead children and make it a symbol, preferrably with a real, typical Ukrainian name ; it would be for instance 7-old Ihor, a yound energetic boy full of hope and ardour for building the new Ukraine, killed in a cold-blooded manner by the abominable steely-eyed Untermenschen coming from the East.
Then you plaster it on all the Western media, 24/7. Man how they would extract every little ounce of propaganda of it. You would have people clamouring in the street for Nato to show it to ’em Russkies, serious speeches by Biden, emergency meetings between Merkel, Ze, and Macron ; of course NATO would need to take the matter into its hands, as evil Russia and China would ensure a stalemate at the UNSC. Cue the sanctions, etc etc..
Man I think I could be good at devising false flag events. The only issue is that once you’ve done it, you need to execute, and it really takes some balls to go militarily after Russia’s forces in their backyard. At one point even spineless compradors like Macron and Merkel would get cold feet.
“So for me – the most probable false flag attack would be against Ukrainian troops. Some poor young recruits – preferably good looking and with more Russian sounding names for the newspaper pictures: “Putin’s mercs did it again! Why do you kill your brothers?””
I was going to write something on that line.
In 1846, then-US president James Polk managed to send a poorly armed squadron to the Mexican border with orders to provoke them, knowing the open discrepancies about the border on the Nueces river. 6 soldiers were killed and it gave him the justification to start the American-Mexican war.
When all media is tuned into a high Russophobic mood, no need of spectacular or too sophisticated manoeuvers to get a public-approved justification. Sometimes, the most simple actions suffice.
With proper air Close Air Support I don’t think it’ll take an entire week for LDNR army to reach Slavyansk…especially after the opening salvos of Iskander and Kalibr strikes prep the battlefield.
I think they could legit reach Poltava and Kharkov in 4 or 5 days.
If the Ukrops don’t trigger this war via a false flag, then Russia needs to pull a false flag of their own. An attack on any Crimean asset will do. Ukraine, like a family member that has become a zombie, needs to be decapitated and its ability to wage war and be a threat has to be extinguished. Things cannot remain as they are. Trade relations? Did Russia’s “partners” not ignore reason, truth, and their own self interest to humiliate Russia over past false flags? The powers behind American foreign policy were behind those events, and will not rest until Russia is beaten into submission. Was the coup and their attempt to seize Crimea not proof enough of their boldness? The installation of military hardware ever closer to Russia is not enough of a hint? Everyone has been happy to treat Russia as its enemy, because they have lost sight of what that truly means. That’s what Russia gets for trying to be reasonable with fools who would go along with the whims of a psychopathic cabal. The Empire is so simple in its methods. It fights its wars on someone else’s turf, and gets someone else to do most of the dying. Ukraine has volunteered for that role, there is no alternative for Russia but to break the spear pointed at it. Break it, and let those who see it make up their mind as to whether they wish to be the next spear.
All the comments seem to favour a “Ukronazi diversionary/terrorist attack” or even the possibility of a US-executed false flag pointing to Ukraine and drawing a response from Russia. That could well happen. But there is another alternative – Russia could well instigate a false flag that would justify its takeover of Ukraine. Russia sees recent NATO words and actions as an existential threat to Russia – in the past NATO always countered Ukrainian requests for membership with “maybe someday if you behave yourself” – now, however, NTO is saying that perhaps Ukrainian membership is not that bad an idea and should be seriously considered – such a response on the part of NATO would most certainly be a red flag waved in front of the Russian bear.
Do not discount Russia’s determination to protect itself. The Donbas issue pales in comparison.
The war has been postponed for late spring or early summer.
Meanwhile British and American psyops will continue, plus thorough media brainwashing of European public.
French TV busy showing ‘documentaries’ with Putin & Poison and Putin reelection for ever, while our ‘better’ democracies here fail to contain/defeat a simple pandemic.
Cheers from France.
The Yugoslav model is the proven operational method, most likely a media hyped version of the Sarajevo market massacre.
They could always hit some USA ship USS Liberty style.
Perhaps they should consult Israel.
A key indicator was the IMF’s rejection of further loans for Ukraine – I vaguely remember posting a comment on this on a thread here at that time, what I said then that this suggests that Washington has run out of patience with Kiev & it is time for the Banderite entity to fulfil its obligations to the master. The West needs Ukraine as a counter weight to Russia, they do not need it for anything else & would probably rather dissolve it then continue to bankroll it in perpetuity. So it is time for Ukraine to start the war, & I think if it does not, than the West will quickly look at ways to break it up as a state to prevent Russia from being able to establish any interests there.
There is no need for Diversionary/Terrorist provocations. Western media have already conditioned its populations that Russia is the aggressor. They all speak with one voice and have complete control of the narrative. No matter what happens, all blame will be shifted on Russia. All that is needed is a decision. That decision rests with Washington.
I think you are right.
It is amazing how everything is controlled via MSM
When I was young I used to play an RTS game called Command & Conquer (it was around 1994, I think).
The Bad Guy there (captial B, capital G) said one very important truism: If you control the media, you’ll control the mind. The irony: in-game it was used to create a black PR campaign against NATO ;-)
Actually, the decision might well rest with Moscow.
Germany and France now wants from Russia to explain its “troop movements”.
Putin’s policy of appeasing “partners” has huge costs now.
The circle around Putin is to much involved with West, I think Russia will step back.
“Germany and France now wants from Russia to explain its ‘troop movements’ “.
I thought that would be an easy one: … “getting ready to push you yapping subaltern clowns into the English channel if you can’t read the ‘F-off’ signs on our western borders.”
sigh :(
I just love Tom and find myself once again having the very similar wavelenght with him…
*** The Ukiesnazis war is to (ultimately) destroy USSA ***
There you have it… The beast is literally self-destructing in front of world stage…
and now somebody wants to accelerate it…
Thus my 2c – The paymaster wont pay for this war. Its too expensive for them. (but there are too many idiots on world stage)
Tom made ref to Saker on Ukies societal collapse at approx 35.00
and its very sad…
So to bring it back here, ANY FF or whatever that appears remotely as FF, will be seen and used as the declaration of war… by both sides, by ALL sides… inc the AI and the Algos…
and it appears they wont stop, both side wont let this pass, ALL sides (the kenetic and the money boys) are lock and loaded, w/out a hot-contact…
the question will then be – is it gonna be short and sweet russian style or will it be like the infinity of never-ending covid19 forerver war w no end date assigned, ever? at russia/multipolar world doorstep…
and Tom brings in the chinese calculations…
As with before, for those sensitive ears, Be Warned, Tom uses colorful language.
there is NO BS period!
Gold Goats ‘n Guns Live – Please Don’t Poke the Dead Body
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqx3Bl6XCZ0
dear friends – more cat food?
be well be safe
Gents, Saker,
From my point of view it is of utmost importance for Russia to keep up with the preparations for a larger war ….. and ensure, that no open – real – engagements in the Donbass occur.
Besides that, proceed with highest priority (if that is possible) with the final steps for finalization of NS2.
The whole campaign is about exactly one issue:
to prevent Russia of becoming a industrial world-powerhouse in the coming decades. And exactly that is in the cards for her after the long phase of industrial and agricultural reorganization of the whole country. She is already a first class military power – no need to discuss that. And will become a major economic player in the very near future.
Nord Stream 2 would mean (for Russia) fat revenues for decades to come without any complications by Poles or Ukies.
Nord Stream 2 would show to the world once again and especially now, that Russia is able to solve problems (pipe laying) on its own, is able to fulfill her visions and stand to her strategies and is able to deliver a piece of Hightech – altogether.
Nord Stream 2 is a world-wide seen example of the benefits of a collaboration between Europe and Asia.
Germany needs NS2 desperately (due to a totally failed energy strategy, but that is another point) – but under the Hegemon there are only very few options for the German vassal left to make the deal happen.
But: it was a masterpiece of preemptive tactics, that the state of Germany was never engaged in the NS2 contract – nor is Russia. It is a contract only between some privately organized energy companies. That makes it much harder for the empire to inflict „problems“.
To make it short – Nord Stream 2 is now a important part of the „Belt & Road“ initiative, connecting Asia and Europe once more for decades to come.
Nothing the „sea powers“ can be interested in.
That is the reason for the US/UK engagement in Nord Stream …. and for the restraint of Germany and France, while at the same time the proxies for both sides (Poland for US/UK – Austria for Germany) lead the war of words.
What needs to be done to prevent the outbreak of a war?
Finishing the god dammned pipeline – as soon as possible. Let the gas flow in – immediately without further delays. Once the gas is delivered, NS2 won‘t be cut off – never ever. It never happened with Nord Stream 1 (fully operational in 2014). It won‘t happen with Nord Stream 2.
But: given the current situation and the madness of many of the German politicians, it would be an easy thing for the Empire to demand the closure of the NS2 project in case of an open outbreak of an open war in the Ukraine.
That needs to be avoided. At (nearly) all costs.
So in the meantime:
– NS2 needs to go „online“ – hurry up, mother Russia – it is time!
– as long as that goes, all open hostilities in the Donbass region need to be avoided at nearly all cost
– if that is not possible (for example, if the Ukies are going all in), than Russia must win the propaganda war immediately (and must be prepared for that. Already now!!). No preemptive strikes, only re-action, no „march to Mariupol“ or stupid things like that. No hothead-reactions, even if it is feasible and militarily pretty easy. Nothing but „stand your ground“ policy on sides of the breakaway-oblasts. Observable for the rest of the world – documented by some of the best reporters on the planet.
Until the pipeline is ready and fully (gas flow) operational.
Once that is done – the interest of the Empire will cease. Trust me. Or – if not and war is unavoidable, then go for it and win it. But only once the pipeline is completed and operational.
Until that is done – the current show of force (Kinshals, Iskanders, S500 on Crimea(?), Bastions, tanks, howitzers, field hospitals) is the appropriate way of demonstrating the „read line“ – should be sufficient and even is scalable as well:
How about a little bit of „public“ testing of the „doomsday“ torpedo – somewhere in the Atlantic? Should be frightening enough for both – the British people as well as the US-Americans.
Just an idea – could be a makeshift test …. does not matter – the message will be received. And should be sufficient.
Just my 2cent
Regards – Chris
“What comes next… Let’s not pretend like anybody is a prophet.”
If you think that there is so much to be gained by victory in this conflict by the ultra rich and a trigger point is all that is necessary to release the locked and loaded, then I imagine a new act under the big tent.
A false flag, a surprise beyond anyone’s expectations should not surprise you. The last two acts, Sept. 11 & the pandemic are examples of so much to gain, by so many that it takes such skillful and cleaver coordination to execute these crimes. Shock and awe and touching people at a very personal level are the methods that have evolved as most successful. The imagination and coordination are contained in the swirling smoke of occult, thus the unexpected.
Perhaps this next act will occur in the America and the resonance of tears and screams will shock the triggers and start the fall of dominos.
The false flag trigger maybe a white flag. The US inflation rate.
From October 2019 to February 2021 the US M1 Money Supply grew 446%.
At this rate the US M1 Money supply will have grown 2,000% by Summer 2022.
Dollar collapse due to inflation will be blamed on Russia & China. The MIC will swell the coffers & coffins as its latest big haul. What’s next is anyone’s guess.
IMHO, the most effective way to pull the plug on this nonsense would be for Russia to publicly state that any attack by Ukraine on Donbass will be treated as an American attack on Russia itself.
Current situation in Ukraine is like an assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which triggered WW1. It was not the reason for WW1 but a trigger to execute that which was set in motion long before the event itself. So limiting these threads to just that is ignoring the big picture here. This is an opening shot in much wider, as Saker correctly states, “existential fight”. And all Russians know it, as per what we can see being discussed in Russian media and especially the comments sections.
Balance of power is after very long time to Russia’s advantage, and that will not last forever if Russia loses this momentum. If things are to change, now is the moment. Russia is ready for war, it is defining moment in history. Watch for “Putin the soulless killer” killing the dollar domination on 21st, along with inflicting tremendous economical damage to EU with starting selling oil & gas just in Russian cryptocurrency and permanently shutting Ukraine’s route. Artificially overinflated stock & commodity markets all around the world will be devastated.
Ukraine will be treated from point of strength, like Israel is treating Syria, and worse. If empire want’s a shooting war it will get one, but not under their preferable terms. It will escalate rapidly, each side calling the bluff of the other one, till it’s clear who can hold the breath longer. Russia is self-sufficient, opponents not so much. Russian population knows hot to improvise under hardships, people in the west are robbed of their basic survival skills & potential. Expect twists of plots like in the “Game of Thrones”, only nuclear armed version. Some countries will cease to exists, some new will emerge, change will be dramatic but in the end healthy. Wherever you are, survival is not guarantied for anyone, rich or poor, it’s like a judgment day for better or worse. And I welcome it, it’s long overdue. Evil & injustice dominates this world for far too long now.
FSB found 2 HTS in Simferopol the other day…..primed to go.
Sake, in a hypothetical war, what are the chances the Russians would send the new T-14 into Eastern Ukraine? Isn’t important to combat test these things (and send a message that it’s not 1993 anymore?)?
Using Russian “aggression” against Ukraine may just be what Empire needs to scuttle NordStream 2 and bring German public opinion in line.
Time is on Russia’s side.
A terrorist action either in Crimea or in Russia seems very difficult in these times of mobilization.
The Donbass must be the preferential target. There already are many provocations and shellings in order to induce an important military retaliation from the independant republics. The planned murder of this poor little Child was intended at that.
A more horrific terrorist attack could possibly achieve this goal.
It seems that the ukrainien adhesion to NATO is not underway. Of course it will provoke a great crisis with regards NATO in Europe. So it is clear that the military support of NATO will be denied to the kiev’s regime.
So if there will be a military engagment now, I see it rather with the indépendant republics’ forces. Without a no fly zone.
I am not so sure that there will be à full war at all.
I think a straight up attack on Nord Stream 2 pipeline vessel would get the ball rolling. The Ukrainians don’t even have to deny it. They can embrace it with applause from the west.
I suppose it’s possible that somebody might attack the pipe or the ships laying it. But I’ve been thinking about the practical physics of the matter.
It would be good if an engineer familiar with undersea piplines would tells us about the process. I have assumed that the pipe is, at present, filled with air, more or less.
Obviously the mass of empty pipe is heaver than water. It seems to be about 25 mm think…which is about 40 pounds per square foot…anybody can look at the videos of pipe ships laying and estimate the pipe mass.
Again, assumption… When pipe fitted to receiver station in G it will be purged with N2 until the latent O2 and moisture is trivial, then pressurized with N2 or CH4 for leak-tests, although a hydro test process is, I guess, also a possibility…that would be hard to dry out.
Speaking of leak tests and drying out….
All it would take to flood the pipe would be trivial…thermate charge the size of a teapot.
And all it takes is a leak – 1 mm hole – to shut it down.
Fixin’ is a real xitch…take long time.
(we would hear propaganda about the “troubled” Russian pipe-lines….)
But I have no experience with how the experts lay underwater pipe. I assume the CH4 pressures will be over 1000 psi
You might be over thinking this. The damaged done does not have to be major physical damage. The damaged that will cause the most damage is perception.
In Ukraine the anti-Russian sentiment prevails, as in all Eastern European countries, the result of 30 years of propaganda so even if Russia would conquer the whole country it would have to deal with a hostile population. In my opinion, a friendly government in Kiev is no longer possible. The other European countries can’t wait to share something, Russia, Africa, whatever … It is the predatory nature that defines the so-called “Western values”, nothing has changed since Hitler launched the Barbarossa operation against the Soviet Union. And nothing will change as long as there are people wanting more than they need …
So how to avoid war, I mean another world war? It is not possible because it is the war of “Jeff Bezos” who wants the 20 euros you have in your pocket.
NATO wants to lure Russia into a long and costly war in Ukraine, not a war which will be effectively over in 96 hours after a real Russia invasion. What to do? I don’t think the UA can keep the bulk of its fighting force in trenches waiting in the elements on the contact line till late fall, many have been there already for months, moral will drop day by day. Meanwhile over the long haul Russia can expect the LDPR to hold the line for a week or more, so Russia can give its troops 48 or 72 hour passes to go enjoy the beach in Crimea, or the local sites, and the LDPR forces likely live close to their fighting positions
Ukie special services will of continue to carry out attacks behind the lines but they will find it more difficult with the heightened state of alert and additional Russian forces close to the border.
Best course of action for NATO is to have Ze and Biden give a tough talking speech about serious consequences, then have the propaganda machine pretend those very Presidential speeches scared Putin away and Russia is pulling back. Then have the UA stand down. That being the logical thing to do, means it is unlikely to be the thing AZ empire chooses. AZ empire may try provocations and false flags, but it will cause Biden huge domestic political problems, the Democratic base thought electing Joe Biden would make that kind of “Russian malign activity” go away not to get worse.
The role of Poland as a proxy for the Vatican in all this cannot be underestimated. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth—and its successors, including the modern Polish state—was created as a vassal and arm of the Roman Catholic Church. It was and is a construct to begin with, unlike the Russian civilisation. The Roman Catholic Church used its puppet Charlemagne to create, finance, and arm the Teutonic Knights as a weapon against noncompliant Germanic elements, as well as to expand eastward and drive a wedge between the Germans and Slavs, while murdering Arians, pagans, and (especially) Orthodox Christians. The Teutonic Knights were “religious” mercenaries, so-called “Crusaders,” the era’s “Christian” equivalent to “Muslim” Daesh (ISIS) “jihadists.” The Roman Catholic Church has always served to create seemingly opposed cults, sects, ideologies, fake “nation”-states, et al. as part of the millennia-old globalist NWO strategy.
It is quite revealing to see how the Roman Catholic Church has consistently sided with the anti-Christian “liberal” faction of the NWO against shared enemies such as Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua, the DPRK, et al. In Venezuela the Church hierarchy openly endorsed the Masonic pederast Guaidó against patriotic Christian socialists such as supporters of Chávez and Maduro. The Church hierarchy has also sided with the Masons against the Sandinista-led Nicaraguan government and is on the same side as Nazi collaborator (and admitted Zionist) Soros and his eugenicist LGBTQ+I minions in a whole host of international arenas. Soros and the Church were on the same side in the struggle to subvert the former Soviet space and, among other things, break up Yugoslavia in favour of the Zionists, Wahhabi–Salafi “Muslims,” and Catholic fascists (Ustaše). This nexus helps the Latinate West expand its genocidal sphere of influence.
Poland, despite its fake conservative populism, has always been a front for pro-Vatican and pro-EU “German” (Nazi/Zionist, that is, NATO-run) leadership. Anti-Russia sentiment > national interest. Catholic puppet states would rather side with the Masons than take principled, anti-imperialist stands that are also consonant with the Christian spirit. The Polish and Russian masses might share 99% in common on practical matters, but one is Catholic and the other is Orthodox, so mutually beneficial relations be damned, per the Vatican-ruled West’s diktat. Christian values have never been a concern of Rome’s, as evidenced by her actions throughout history. During the world wars and the Cold War the Holy See consistently aligned with Judaeo-Masonic, Anglo-Saxon war aims against German-Russian rapprochement, opposition to anti-imperialist struggles in the Third World (cf. Latin America, Indochina, and Korea), and support for sectarian, fascist cultists such as the pro-Yakuza Unification “Church” and the anti-Soviet, Catholic OUN-B in the Ukraine.
Now Poland, on behalf of its Roman masters, has been consistently supporting the breakup of Soviet-Russian civilisation. This has included active support for and patronage of the OUN-B—the same OUN-B that has massacred ethnic Poles as well as Orthodox and/or Bolshevik Russians. Piłsudski himself worked with Nazi Germany’s Abwehr to support the OUN-B against Soviet Ukraine shortly prior to World War II. The OUN-B also served to divide the Ukrainian (and Soviet) opposition to Polish colonisation of Galicia/Volhynia. Poland was a full partner with Nazi Germany and its papal-backed, Anglo-Saxon sponsors. Polish support for the OUN-B and its Right Sector proved pivotal, as everyone here well knows, in the 2014 Maidan coup d’état against Yanukovych. So Poland is clearly unconcerned about Nazi extremism in the Ukraine, since it is the principal regional backer of Nazi and fascist forces against Orthodox Russia, on behalf of the Vatican. Germany, in turn, supports Poland because it is occupied by pro-NATO and pro-Vatican compradors.
If Germany had any free will, it would have likely joined an anti-Polish alliance with Russia by now, and coordinated activities with Russia to eliminate pro-NATO influence in Eastern Europe. Poland would have likely been partitioned by now and the influence of the Vatican greatly diminished, to the detriment of the Anglo-Zionist overlords in Brussels, the City of London, Washington, D.C., and Tel Aviv. Get rid of the Swiss-Venetian, Vatican-backed P2-BCCI network (of GLADIO, Iran-Contra, and 9/11 fame) and the whole Western Empire collapses along with its proverbial “house of cards,” including the Saudi-Turkish crypto-Zionist “Dönmeh” family. This Satanic network has been planning the “clash of civilisations” and the NWO’s 666 endgame for millennia. Roman Catholicism, as the foundation of the Latinate West, is the head of the Masonic death-cult, though many ordinary Catholics are decent people, albeit greatly manipulated, like 99.9% of mankind on this planet. The “Jewish” bankers work for the Roman beast and its spawn.
To really “stop the steal,” Russia and the Resistance must go for the proverbial jugular.
At this point we know there’s a massive buildup on both sides. Nobody needs a “false flag”. The side that needs the war most, start shooting. There are a few possible scenarios, but it´s unlikely both sides pull back.
It´s in the air, something big are going to happen.
I can’t imagine the the Anglo-Zionist Empire letting the 80th anniversary of Barbarossa pass without some major fireworks. Launch the celebration with Zelensky’s assassination. One stone, two birds. U.S. is headless too as the Big Guy succumbed to Covid and poor Harris is all alone trying to find the light switch to the oval office. Who will save her – and the nation? Who has the experience? Who has stood up to Killer Putin? Not just once, but resolutely held back his aggression for years? Who had her selection stolen by this very villain?
”I can’t imagine the Anglo-Zionist Empire letting the 80th anniversary of Barbarossa pass without some major fireworks.”
Good catch! If anything there will, at the very least, be an awesome Western noisy ”academic” circle-jerk where what passes for the ”intelligentsia” — in unison — will be promoting entirely irreconcilable falsehoods about Stalin and his leadership at the outbreak of hostilities with Nazi Germany. Our contemporary ”experts” on the subject are, as we all know, entirely free both to choose and to veer between these fabrications. To wit:
1) Stalin was very fond of Hitler, further corroborated by the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement. Didn’t see the looming danger. Border wide open with very little troops.
2) Stalin did have sufficient troops at the border but ignored the warnings by the British and French about an impending German attack. Free-fire zone ensued.
3) Stalin had huge amounts of troops at the border to conquer all of Europe, starting with Germany. The poor Nazis were acting in pure self-defence by launching a campaign of mass terror and racist genocide.
To make sense of the anti-Russian/anti-Soviet drivel, Putin will be explained as being equal to Stalin + Crimea + MH17 + Novichok + enemy of LGBTQ++ and quite a few other equally heinous ”crimes against humanity”, LOL.
Escalation dominance needs to be factored in here. A false flag could be ginned up in any number of areas by any number of special services. But Russia has stated in no uncertain terms that the “decision-making centers” will be targeted. So, either US/NATO/Ukronazis and their “allies” either climb down the tree or come up with one of their oh-so-effective “plans” to counteract escalation dominance.
Ru also made specific not on Russian soil and not necessarily symmetric response. Which implies that “decision making centers” might include the pet a gone, for example…or General Ripper’s desk… eg anywhere in the world.
Actually I have run into ordinary American people who, whatever they believe from the propaganda not withstanding, near strangers at the gas station, who want to talk about how Russia has military dominance and NATO and the senile guy better back down soon…but down at the war shop such ideas are unthinkable, such is logic of empires.
Excuse sidetrack but this is what China faces
https://consortiumnews.com/2021/04/08/us-funded-uyghur-activists-train-as-soldiers-of-empire/
Could be done against Russia too…?
The west is not very creative. And that uncreativity could also be deliberate.
So it’ll be another chemical weapons attack/novochik false flag.
The guillable half of the public is already conditioned to see this as signature Russian tactics. So it’ll be the same old same old. Maybe they’ll also shoot down another civilian airline for good measure.
Uncreative yes; deliberately so maybe in the sense that their profound contempt of the West’s 99% doesn’t encourage any sincere efforts on their part. They think with some justification that ”you can keep gorging on this kind of faeces you’re perfectly used to, agreed?”. It would be much more risky if the MSM’s audience began to show some interest in following up on the various bullshit stories, at least from a perspective of yearned for imperialist victory. Like: ”How come Crimea’s illegal annexation by Russia persists?” or ”How come the awful, criminal regimes of Assad and Lukashenko are still in power?”.
Hence, I agree that some dull, sloppy, boring old meme might certainly do as casus belli. What I remain decidedly skeptic about is the prospect of NATO doing anything more than swearing and barking. Their Belarus fiasco last summer clearly suggests ”no” as the right answer to the question. Really, if Lukashenko and Belarus proved too much, what are the odds when it comes to Putin and Russia? NATO, for all its pretension and bluster, doesn’t believe in ”Biswapriyology” according to which Putin is their faithful servant.
Do we have any translations of just what the Donbass politicos are saying? It is possible or not that the Donbass armies will take the offensive at some point and that Russia will just act as back up a la “my big brother is stronger than your big brother”? This might mollify Germany enough for them to keep their foot on the tail feathers of the NATO/ US peacock.
Also, Putin has made clear that RTP. …right to protect includes any attack on Donetz and there will be no repeat of city-wide sieges or mass atrocities like in the Yugoslavian conflict or surges toward taking the airport as in the last Donbass conflict. I think the action will center around Donetz–hot and heavy.
As for Turkey…any blockage of the Dardanelles is considered an act of war by Russia. As far as I know, Turkey is selling drones to Ukraine and military supplies; in other words, opportunistically making a quick buck. However, if events become hot they might be obligated to provide base support etc to NATO in a more accelerated way so perhaps there is a monetary shake down angle being played there. I hear that Turkey is hard up for $$$ to support what military adventures it already has going on which does not mean that they are inviolate in terms of another actor seizing the Dardanelles given the right set of distracting circumstances which is beginning to happen today with Israel and Iran.
Mars square Neptune…yes, some kind of naval catastrophe on the Seas might be indicated or a false flag poisoning . The Israelis have been more openly aggressive in their attacks on Iranian vessels lately.
Again…there are just too many possibilities and balls in the air . More will be revealed.
Agreed and also believe that if Turkey gets involved in RUS-Ukraine beyond just showboating and sabre rattling then the Russians will return the favour via air and missile assaults on all the Turkish supported jihadis currently positioned inside Idlib province. (I’m pretty sure they mean to resolve the Idlib issue soon anyway.)
Furthermore, if any Russian military personnel are killed in Ukraine action due to intel support or drone attacks supported by Turkey then I suspect that all the isolated military outposts held by Turkish army in Idlib will be targeted and destroyed.
If the Turks are foolish enough to escalate beyond this, then I suspect older export SAMs and other ATGMs can be covertly supplied to Kurdish forces now fighting the Turks along the borders of northern Syria.