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Thanks for this insightful report. I think Russia is going to unleash a big offensive in the next few days which will bring big gains for them. It looks to me though that they are going to have to annexe the Donbass area to the Russian Federation just for that region’s own protection. Zelensky is not only a war criminal but a Nazi and megalomaniac Dictator. He is inciting the UAF to commit the worse kind of atrocities against civilians and POWs. I wonder what the USA and the West are going to do with him after all of this. God Bless Putin and Russia. Most of the world is with the Russian Federation all the way. I see now that the USA is setting it’s sights on China and causing provocation in Taiwan. All this Western deep hatred and vitriol is leading them making profoundly wrong decisions. The 1st Russian Revolution shook the world and changed it. This 2nd Russian Revolution will destroy the unipolar world and globalism the West and the USA. In Europe at least the people will rise up. Long live the Revolution.
the main stream media is spewing nothing but inaccuracies re Ukraine., Ukraine has to fall., and it will,. to the chagrin of the usa and the media
The US is eyeing that 1 trillion in treasuries that china holds right now, those neocons are really set on burning everything down to maintain their power.
Uncle $hmuel is a dying empire. He just doesn’t get it.
Great Question: What is the Plan?
We read Russian MOD moves as if we can conjure The Plan from the moves. But, foremost, the moves have Operational Logic and Response.
As Andrei M. clues us in, look at the logistics (positives of Russia) versus (negatives of Ukraine). What are the Russians doing and how are they doing it? What have the Ukies lost and how much more can they lose?
Russia is chopping down the forest of Ukie weapons, resupply, fuel, radars and communications, and unit coherence. Across the whole of Ukraine, depots necessary for Ukie operations are destroyed. Very few remain.
Positionally, Russia has forced the Ukies to overload manpower and heavy weapons around Kiev. Kharkiv has been frozen, amplified by fanatical teraborona forces. Meanwhile, Russia was able to form cauldrons around Donbass, while LDNR forces swept north creating the potential of some smaller cauldrons when the time comes to ‘boil” the Ukies. They remain trapped in their fortified positions, immobile and at the mercy of never being resupplied with water, food, medicine, fuel and ammo.
The key to the success of this war is logistical capability. The Russians have uninterrupted, endless supply, with many means and routes to accomplish logistical support to its own, to LDNR, to Dagestani and Chechen forces. The Ukies have, at best, a trickle of resupply in some areas, but none to the 100,000 troops in the Donbass cauldron.
We have the battle of Mariupol as prime example. It was encircled with 15,000 fighters, then 25,000 entered from the flanks, fought into the center of the city, and now are working from the flanks of the big holdout enclave Azovstal Steel Works. For more than a month, the Ukies could not be resupplied. They actually had to abandon their human shield hostages, the citizens of the city. They had no water, food or medicine for them.
The same will happen to Odessa and Nikolaev. Their fuel is being destroyed. What food, water, ammo they have stored is all they will have when the Russian troops come.
There was so little logistical planning by the Ukies and the US handlers in terms of what kind of war Russia would bring to Ukraine that it is fairly clear, they thought only a war in Donbass was likely. Along the Azov and Black Sea land bridge to Crimea, they thought they could hold back the Russians in the South, get resupplied and not lose Novorossiya.
The US still has personnel in the bombed out Ochakov naval base and in Mariupol’s underground bomb shelter at Azovstal. They must have thought resupply from the North or West would save them. The Ukies did have a huge fighting force, 20,000 in the Azov brigade, plus regular Ukie marines. But, they ran out of buildings in which to hide and shoot from, human shields to hide behind, and vital logistical supplies.
Each area of major combat now presents fresh or refreshed Russian troops, massive increase in weapons and ammo, an encircled Ukie army, isolated from any hope of rescue, living on dwindling logistical caches.
What can we say about this Operation’s Planned objective? Total destruction of Ukraine’s military power and potential to ever exist again. Then look at what that leaves the state of Ukraine? Borders it cannot control. A population that cannot be controlled. In other words, a stateless Ukraine is a former country not a future country.
The Plan looks to be to eliminate Ukraine totally. To replace it with 6-7 small states, all controlled by Russia.
This also is the only way to accomplish denazification. Ukraine, the idea, has to be destroyed, like its military.
Russia is well on its way to destroying completely the Ukie military. The state will fall on its own when the shooting stops. By depriving the Ukies of logistical supply and resupply, Russia is moving beyond military victory to the political goal of erasing Ukraine forever.
Judge them by their deeds. We understand how the Russians are winning the war. We see what winning means in their lexicon of 2022.
The US, NATO and EU bet the house on this war. It looks like Putin now holds the deed and will turn it into a new sub-division. The old address will be taken off the books.
” Ukraine, the idea, has to be destroyed, like its military.”
Yes, that nails it.
At least, idea of Ukraine as a country;
.
As opposed to the Ukraine.
I Looked at an episode of Sherlock Holmes some days ago (with Jeremy Brett) and it was question of “little Russia”. Around 1900 this province of the russian empire was known in the western countries as “little Russia”. There was no question of an imaginary Ukraine. The first russian state was formed as “Kievian Rus”. Conclusion : no entity called Ukraine existed in history of that region, except in the soviet state.
In a speech a number of years ago, maybe 2016 or 2017, responding to accusations from the west that he would march on Kiev, Mr Putin said, if he marched to Kiev, Ukraine would cease to exist as a state. He does not say anything for no reason. Hopefully never again will that territory be used to launch threats on the RF.
“Ukraine, the idea, has to be destroyed, like its military.” Time to put into the ash heap of history what the old Austro Hungarians created in the late XIX century, subdued after WW I with the partition of Galitia (Poland taking the West, the new USSR taking taking the East and adding it to the newly created Ucraine SSR), given a resurrection under Nazi Germany, maintained and nurtured in the West during the Cold War and immediately brought back during the 1990s. And now here we are.
The Child (Galitian nationalism morphed into Banderaism) must go to the grave like its father (Austria Hungary) and step Father (Nazi Germany).
Ukraine is not the objective, it is simply the first battle in the war against the US and NATO.
Russia is not going to stop until they have achieved their objectives, which were clearly spelled out in the draft treaties to NATO and the US.
Correct, Ukraine is nothing but a stepping stone.
Yes, I am looking forward to the Nazis in the US being chucked into the nearest sewer.
I have been waiting since 1991 and I figured only economic collapse and a foreign military would do the deed.
And now that day has come.
Good to be around to see it.
Exactly. And goals were stated extremely precisely, in the December.
All NATO weapons (missiles, radars) must be pulled back beyond 1997. positions. This war will continue until that happens, one way or another.
Good post & hpefull all will turn out as you surmise. It annoyed me today to read the following :
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/kremlin-spox-admits-significant-troop-losses-ukraine-are-huge-tragedy-live-interview
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with the UK’s Sky News, “We have significant losses of troops,” and admitted “and it’s a huge tragedy for us.” He said this when pressed on the issue by the broadcast interview host, however, stopped short of giving a death toll as he said the numbers were not yet “double confirmed”.
How stupid & counter productive is it to Admit to significant troop losses ? !
That is what I thought. What a stupid idea to make such “confessions” to an arch-ennemy media. Peskov is a very doubtfull person.
“They had no water, food or medicine for them.”
Can’t Russia just sit it out and wait for them to die “naturally”?
https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/how-long-can-you-live-without-water#bodily-response
Without enough water, the kidneys use more energy and wear on tissue. Your kidneys need to function adequately to flush out waste from your blood. Eventually, ****your kidneys will cease to function without adequate water intake. Other organs in your body may also cease to function without water.****
Wonderfully elucidated.
As always: concise, clear, brilliant summary, many thanks!
Excellent.
Peskov gave an interview in which he said something about Russian troop losses being heavier than expected and a tragedy. Of course, he also said that they were achieving all their objectives, but that got washed out in the media spin.
So it’s good to know that things are going according to plan.
Here’s an article on how Ukraine was created. the article can be easily translated by Google Chrome.
.
How the Bolsheviks gave Ukraine native Russian lands
.
What is happening today in Ukraine was provoked more than a hundred years ago – at least that is the conclusion that can be drawn from the study of Russian history and documents compiled even by the Bolsheviks. The gigantic territories inhabited by Russians, including the industrial Donbass, were given to Ukraine by Lenin’s personal decision. How and why did this happen?
The administrative-territorial structure of the Russian Empire gives a clear understanding of what historically developed regions our country was divided into. This is especially vividly illustrated by the situation with the modern borders of Ukraine.
.
https://vz.ru/society/2022/4/7/1152344.html
If the Ukraine army in Donbas can’t be evacuated or re-supplied they are done. Surrender or die. I’ve heard anywhere from 60-120 thousand. That would be 1/4 to 1/2 of the 250k regular troops. I don’t think they can recover from that.
I have heard all sorts of figures for the number of Ukrainian troops deployed in the Donbass. Some experts in this matter have sugested figures from as few as 20,000 to as many as 60,000.
The blogosphere is full of all sorts of figures, including 100,000+ men at arms, but logistical experts have suggested that any figure much above 60-80,000 men at arms could not be supported after x8 weeks in the field when subjected to the mixed combat conditions in this region.
With significant logistical (and physical such as rest and rotation of troops) limitations considered, experts have suggested there is unlikely to be more than 60,000 Ukrainian troops still in the entire Donbass area, and significantly fewer (perhaps just 20 – 40,000) troops still facing Luhansk and Donetsk.
Of those numbers signifficantly fewer still will be “entrenched”. At this point in the war entrenched troops (not hiding within civillian population centres) would be sitting ducks to weapons specifically designed to clear such forces.
According to some experts, assuming that no significant resupply by road or rail to these Ukrainian troops east of the Dniper River is taking place, a large fighting force in the high 10s of thousnads (much less 100’s of thousands) simply could not be maintained in fighting condition for more than 2 to 3 months (basically until existing rations and stockpiled field supplies had run down).
As we dont have real-time intel on either the true number of Ukrainian forces east of the Dniper, nor the number of Russian / LDR forces facing them, we can only guess / estimate these numbers whilst waiting for the eventual release of official figures.
An interesting point an ex Army Capt made on another site was that it appears Russia is allowing significant numbers of regular Ukrainian forces to retreat / desert, as evidenced, apparently, by the small number (relatively speaking) of Ukrainian POWs, and also the small number (relatively speaking) of Ukrainian regulars killed whilst leaving the main fronts of the (very) slowly closing cauldron in Donbas. He said this is something NATO would never had allowed and certainly not US Command – the US would have attacked such mass retreats and they likely would have been destroyed without mercy by A10’s, B52’s, and MLRS as per the infamous “Road to Basra” during the Iraq war.
If tens of thousands of men were to surrender, wouldn’t it be a huge logistical problem to take care of them adequately as POWs?
Could they be taken to Russia and housed in camps of some kind there?
Could they be taken to Russia and housed in camps of some kind there?
That’s what a Russian officer told some POWs in a video I saw.
Reeducation and Rehabilitation camps, not to be confused with R&R Rest and Relaxation/Recuperation.
Cattle prods to the testicles hasten objectives, winning hearts & minds.
Supposedly Azov & Other Nazis are embedded in every Ukie grouping top to bottom to ensure zero Russia cooperation. In this case it wouldn’t be difficult for true Ukrainian soldier patriots to eliminate the Gestapo and by doing so work with Russia to restore security in Ukraine; a new beginning as such. It would be a much much easier practise for the Ukie army to be the ones to disarm civilians and armed gangs/criminals.
I would imagine so, but the Russians would surely have considered this and prepared accordingly.
However, some experts have suggested that the Russians want the Ukrainian regulars – not the Nazi militants and NATO funded Mercs – to survive as a fighting force (but not a combat force).
Apparently the idea was for the Ukrainian regulars to take control of the internal security of Ukraine after the war ended, and even “Police” Ukraine until a national Police force capable of restoring and maintaining law and order could be trained / deployed. In the meantime they would work with Russia to ensure that the Nazis were brought into custody and not allowed to take power again.
That may or may not still be part of a post-war plan as things seem to have changed for the worst. At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian regualrs were instructed to stay in barracks and allow the de-nazification process to be unaposed, but that did not happen and it appears that the Russians did not expect the rabid hatred towards them by many of the Ukrainian regulars (and especially foreighn “volunteers”) so your guess is as good as mine if the Ukrainian military will play a part in post-war security.
A full demilitarisation of the entire country was begun but not the massive airial bombardment Russia is capable of delivering to clear the Donbass.
As I (and people who know a lot more than me) do not believe all of the Ukrainian military are prepared to fight to the death, either they are are retreating or being taken POW.
Anyway, I simply dont know what is going on, and it appears neither do many experts. A “total war” is not being fought by Russia. If it were being, Russian, who have complete air superiority, could if they chose to, take a US approach to dealing with retreating forces such as the “Road to Basra” (aka the Highway to Hell) appraoch the US took in Iraq.
Link to a quick video on the Road to Basra with the US explaining how they spent 2 days flying every aircraft they had in theatre against that convoy:
https://youtu.be/hhmXleZXAr0
I think that half of them will go down in an Ardenne or Choisin Reservoir type break out offensive. That or surrender en masse (where the Nazis will have to decide, waste ammo killing en masse surrendering Ucranians or let them go and use what they got left for a suicide offensive)
Logistics would be difficult for any number over 60k but … What if they were not planning on staying long? Invade Donbas/Luhansk for one big ethnic cleanse operation? Stage 100k for a week or two before the invasion would be feasible. We’ll see as I have no idea how many are in there.
Hopefully the civilians are out and the regular Ukraine conscripts desert or surrender. Let the Nazis die. They wanted this war, let them die in it.
“According to some experts, assuming that no significant resupply by road or rail to these Ukrainian troops east of the Dniper River is taking place, a large fighting force in the high 10s of thousnads (much less 100’s of thousands) simply could not be maintained in fighting condition for more than 2 to 3 months (basically until existing rations and stockpiled field supplies had run down).”
I think you also need to take into account the amount of food that can be leeched from the local population / villages. It might extend the food supplies significantly. They probably also will eat the seeds intended for the next growing season.
This system would seem to be effective against the “Starstreak” Manpad:
EO/IR Countermeasures
“The Department of Defense (DoD) has been pursuing a range of laser-based systems to counter advanced threat tracking systems, missiles, and other precision guided munitions utilizing electro-optical and infrared sensors. Laser systems scalable in output power and capable of generating spectral output in all major regions of the threat optical/IR spectrum, has significant promise in fulfilling both present and future DoD mission requirements against existing and emerging threats.
Q-Peak has been working on the development of tunable laser systems that span the UV to LWIR spectrum with multiple laser technologies including Supercontinuum, high power fiber, and non-linear frequency converters. As threats increasing become more difficult to defeat with traditions directable IRCM laser system, new laser architectures are required to meet the challenge.”
A question: wouldn’t a strobe light be just as effective? White light contains all the frequencies of the spectrum
from UV to IR. Maybe a strobe light with a fresnel lens?
Thank you Mr Martynov. I wish I could be as convincing when trying to deprogram people I know. May America come through this cleansed from sin. But I doubt it in the near term.
History now, not tactics. The Soviets captured and defeated the Japanese in Manchuria. And ended the war. And repatriated the defeated , years later.
But what happened to Japanese troops in China ( not Manchuria ) ??
No published history on that.
Which leads me to think no surrender and no survival for any .
If NATO sends troops ( or Poland) into the fray , at the conclusion , they’ll never see their countries again.
This situation now is like Guadalcanal in 1942.
Just the start of the fun. Until the Jap govt knows its beat , it will go on.
“May America come through this cleansed from sin. But I doubt it in the near term.”
never say never – the real America isn’t what you see on TV, nor meet at dinner-parties.
I’ve been reading the comment-section on ZeroHedge since their inception, and never before have they been so unison as now in their condemnation. Even the day-traders chimes in.
Still 80% + are in denial or just plain stupid, with the more discerning majority @ Z/H still believing Trumplethinskin was the real deal and not a Walter Mitty type character who had some good jingles like Drain The Swamp & Lock Her Up while handing over the Keys to the Treasury to Goldmanites and totally consumed by the fake Stawk Market up’s & downs.
Nope, if Americans are going to idly stand by and watch these traitorous scum engage in illegal wars/genocide then America should at a Minimum suffer heavier casualties than those inflicted on Russia, Syria, Iraq and Yemen combined.
For certain every one of their foreign military bases should be targeted and destroyed.
Zerohedga has a readership of approx. 35,000,000
CNN TV 750,000
Legacy media is over
Apples to oranges
You have to pay to watch CNN
You pay nothing to watch Zerohedge.
If Zerohedge starts charging money to enter, bet their readership tanks.
ZH was best in the beginning, but as with everything … as site popularity grows the average IQ level moves left on the bell curve. Still some excellent articles though.
I don’t think there is any need to do anything with the empires foreign bases. As the empire and dollar goes down the drain, so will the bases. No money no funney. An agreement for an orderly draw down should be attempted, but most likely it will just disintegrate in a mess. Looks like the empire intents to go out with a bang, as opposed to a clasical wimper.
Please destroy the US marine base in Darwin, Australia first.
Then Pine Gap.
Those US bases in Syria should be annihilated,Americans need to start dying to concentrate what left of Bidens mind.
The Nationalist troops guarded the Japanese prisoners from harm by angry Chinese. Japanese troops railed to ports and went back to Japan by ship.
I repeat, Russia, do not quietly let these NATO foreign guests go. Expose them. No deals! Make the EUSUK axis sweat and shake.
Parade them in the streets – let people spit on them. Then roll them in tar and feathers and send them home, as the useless eaters they are.
That should send a signal.
They do not deserve to go home. Public execution or life imprisonment (no parole) with hard labour, actual back breaking hard labour in the depths of frozen Siberia.
Is it true that Peskov said today that Russia’s military operation will end in the near future, possibly in the coming days, by achieving their goals either militarily or diplomatically?
Peskov should be immediately dismissed. Why does Putin surround himself with such garbage?
On a sad note, Vladimir Zhirinovsky passed way yesterday. Whatever you might think of his antics he was a true Patriot that loved Russia to the core. He will be missed.
You know something Peskov don’t?
You must not have any faith in the intelligence of your Ukrainian people. What if they actually see the writing on the wall?
Or what if in the next few days Russia bombs the cauldron in east Ukraine with Thermobaric weapons and wipes out tens of thousands of Ukie soldiers?
Im a fan too of Zhirinovsky. Honoured be his memory. He is missed as one of the few calling a spade for a spade.
True, according to RT: https://www.rt.com/russia/553495-operation-ukraine-end-days-kremlin/
Interesting that Brother Martyanov expects that there are NATO POW’s in Crimea being debriefed. So do I. I also wonder what’s down in that AvovSteel basements.
And interesting too that he sees the affair as global. So do I, and for a long time.
I am very sorry that I too see this as WW3. Not surprised, but very sad.
Cited book https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329934215_The_Russian_Way_of_War_Force_Structure_Tactics_and_Modernization_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces
Well that does explain alot, little birdies, caught and caged. No wonder the western freak Show have been going starkers. Love the suspense and all, sure wish the Russians would put us out of our misery….. wonder if there’s any truth to that Levy critter being down there.
Cheers M
Thank you Andrei ! Always a pleasure to listen to you.
Thanks for your insights and analysis. As a combat veteran I appreciate the level of detail you often provide.
Well, whatever “The Plan” may be, it appears that the Istanbul talks that were greeted in a public statement by Russia’s FM last week as “considerable progress” and “a positive move forward” may not quite live up to that assessment. At that time, Mr Lavrov seemed to think that “our Ukrainian colleagues understand that the issues of Crimea and Donbass have been irrevocably settled.” His more recent re-assessment of the draft agreement actually returned by Kiev, however, seems somewhat less optimistic:
Wow. That sure is an unforeseeable surprise — not. Best not to announce the newly arrived chickens before they’re hatched perhaps.
__
ref: https://tass.com/world/1434121
That Sergei believes negotiating with the monkeys and not the organ grinder will produce a blueprint going forward indicates he needs a long sabbatical to recharge his thought processes.
Anyone here has the savvy to know that any draft settlement will be at the behest of Victoria Nudelman and other US degenerates.
Or whoever is giving them their orders. The noodle nutbag and her fellow dual passport twats are taking orders from whoever covered their expenses to get them to the position they are now safely ensconsed in, and that debt will follow them to their long overdue graves.
That entity is whom the Russians should be aiming their messages at, along with something travelling at Mach 10, if my preference had anything to do with it.
Love the tactical lesson, lead your opponent to believe you are stupid…..I heard the cries ‘whaa why don’t they blow the railroad stations’….because ‘the’ trains hadn’t arrived yet…..duh. Two stations, lots of big armour by the sounds of it, wonder what the spot market is for scrap metal, someone’s is gonna make a killing in Ukraine , scuse the pun!
Cheers M
So MANY good points! Thank you Andrei. I was one of those who did NOT think that Russia’s goal was just liberating Eastern Ukraine–not once Putin stated his goals — which are liberation of the DPR and LPR, demilitarization, denazification. It’s as if Putin had the American strategist, John Boyd, on staff. The initial strike was masterful. Largely because it isolated UAF forces and most importantly destroyed the UAF’s logistical capability. No supplies. No mobility. So the “physical” aspect of the war was really over in the first two weeks. Now it’s wack a mole. Only the moles die. As you can see from my articles, this is a different kind of war. Boyd defined war as “physical”, “psychological” and “moral” (“morale”). American wars are just physical. But Putin’s war is based on principle — it is moral. He does not lie about his motives and goals and keeps his word.
https://julianmacfarlane.medium.com/ukraine-forensic-forecast-april-899147b34c60
https://julianmacfarlane.medium.com/the-tao-of-vladimir-putin-5029122a2638
Recently, Saker acknowledged that the Ukrainian Army is fighting harder and more skillfully than he had anticipated. He gave them due credit, and concluded that there will be hard fighting ahead.
He also explained how dangerous the new MANPAAD delivered to Ukraine by the UK really is. There is no adequate defense against these missiles. For those of us who favor the Russian side in this conflict, this should be a matter of great concern. The Stinger MANPAADS played a major role in taking the sky away from the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Somehow, NATO is able to supply these weapons to Ukraine and somehow Ukrainians are able to get these weapons to the frontlines in the east. And somehow Ukrainian soldiers are getting trained to use them effectively.
How can this be?
Helicopters can be used in the darkness and -with extremely accurate navigation- can fly below rooftop/hilltop and/or tree level to deliver these weapons. I also speculate that some of the convoys of trucks and buses, which are used to evacuate civilians, could conceal these weapons which could be unloaded unnoticed along the way.
I’m willing to bet they are getting these weapons in some sort of humanitarian aid vehicles i.e such as red cross ambulances ferrying azov battallions around.
https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/15/podcast-episode-100-alistair-crooke-russia-war-independence/
Here Tom Luongo interviews Alistair Crooke, UK Diplomat in Pakistan then, who actually organized Stingers to Afghanistan, says they are a holywood thing – did not work.
Alot of yt and twitter accounts are getting terminated/suspended recently, anything that’s reporting the truth.
Patrick Lancaster seems to be also gone (terminated/suspended from yt?) haven’t seen updates from him for over a day which is rather strange since he does daily updates. So is the Russian blogger who did 5min overview updates 3x a day, who had on average 2-3million viewers on each video cast, his account has been terminated.
So just a warning…. something big is going down, for the small government tweebs to go through all this trouble.
I saw a report yesterday from Patrick Lancaster very close to the front line within sight of those Azov Freaks in Mariupol,he takes risks there are still snipers there,the man has guts keeping us up to date.
RT ran a report where the clearly marked press agent came under sniper fire. Not good for nerves.
They hole up in apartments a few floors up – the only remedy is then heavy guns, that explains why every window in Mariupol is blasted out – the destruction is beyond belief! Basements are where the civies have to hide.
I don’t think we know when the war ends but, like he says, it can’t be years. Can it be longer than this June-August period? It would be surprising if it doesn’t end by then. Russia probably has some financial pressures to end the war as soon as possible. He says, “It’s a much larger geopolitical struggle than merely the operation in Ukraine.” This last I don’t know (I don’t know how far they would try to go). But, whether they mean to go further or whether they are uncertain about that (as if to be decided depending on results), this also adds up to pressure to end as quickly as possible. If Russia does want to end this war quickly, it can summon what it needs to do so. Considering the difference in power between the two sides, bigger now, I would be a little surprised if it’s not over by the end of June, very surprised if it’s not over by August, and not surprised if it’s over next month. (I’m no military expert, though.)
The expectations of the Russian people are taken into account. If the war lasts “too long” for them, pres. Putin might make changes of personnel because, in that vertical structure, the leader must not be tied to a perceived failure; he cannot expect less than the people. In WWII, the Germans were surprised by the fact that the Soviet army improved a lot in 1942 and eventually they thought that the Soviet soldier had become as good as the German. The difference in the military campaign between 1941 and 1942 shows the improvement, which continued; such improvements can be expected of these Russian soldiers and commanders – it’s a proud army.
“He says, “It’s a much larger geopolitical struggle than merely the operation in Ukraine.” This last I don’t know (I don’t know how far they would try to go). ”
The Russians stated their non-ultimatum pre this Ukraine distraction. They need security warranties, and that NATO forces pull back to it’s 1997 border. This would in reality mean that NATO loses the grip over it’s Eastern European vassals. This will happen, only question is how ? What are those military-techincal measures that where mentioned from the Russian side ?
My guess is we will see this happen in a 1-2 year perspective, while Russia still have the edge with Hyper-Sonic Weapons.
Soviet soldier was never as good as German soldier but gap narrowed 1942-45 a lot. In the end it was numbers what mattered. And mobility. Red Army’s numerial superioirity was achieved first time in autumn of 1942 and advantage started to grow 1943-45. They could always choose strongpoints with 1 to 7 advantage.
Now in Ukraine it’s the Ukie forces having almost 3 times more soldiers than RF. Even with better mobility the RF forces still have limited chances to win big. They indeed had not enough soldiers.
The losses of Ukrainian soldiers are more than “almost 3 times” that of Russian soldiers.
We know from Zelensky’s mouth that many are the “traitors.” He demoted two Generals recently for that reason – demoted, not jailed, which shows he really feels there could be a lot of “traitors” out there and does not feel strong enough to jail two of them. I don’t expect him to stay in a bunker like Hitler stayed (the dancer shall return). I expect him to conclude one day that actually all of them are “traitors” and that it’s time for him to leave (more likely scenario).
I would say 10:1.
Russia lost around 3-4000 troops.
Ukraine 30,000+.
This is being reported today:
“The Danish television channel TV2 showed an interview with a mercenary who, on condition of anonymity, said that the Ukrainian military was shooting captured Russian soldiers.
“Earlier I heard about a successful exchange of prisoners of war, but here’s the bottom line. People are being killed,” said the Dane.
He notes that such behavior of the Ukrainian side is a war crime and states that he himself did not take part in these executions.”
My thoughts about this are 2.
1.Russian soldiers need to not surrender no matter what. I know that sounds awful,but if you are going to be killed anyway,fight to the end.
2. If the Russians can find out which Ukie units are doing those murders. Pass the order to not take any prisoners from those units.
https://t.me/SHTABHDSHNR/14600
I was also surprised by scale of operation or rather by lack of escalation. To enter a war like this, it was pure PR self-destruction.
Regarding demilitarization, the ultimate goal is safety of Russia. Is Russia safer now? It looks like NATO will continue to expand, Poland says it is “open” to the United States deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, etc.
Denazification? Even if it is possible to “denazify” Ukraine (whatever that means), the price for that is increased “nazification” of the West so what is there to gain?
Regarding tactics, I believe Mr. Martyanov is making the same kind of mistake as Russian army – neglecting tactics. Tactics is where any plans meet reality. Poor tactics will lead to high casualties and low troop morale. If I was a psychologist, I would even say that Russians have some grandiose traits, it’s like tactical level is not “good enough” for their military planners, they only want to think about “big” strategies, “big” weapons, etc.
Honestly right now it seems like we’re all living on hope, waiting for the mythical grand Russian offensive involving thousands of fresh troops or some kind of gimmick (thermobaric bombs agains the Donbass cauldron ?)
But what if it doesn’t happen ? What if the reserves are not there ? I’ve seen enough now to make me doubt. The utterances of that asshole Peskov do not help.
April is make or break month. Everything is at stake here. Either Russia shows that it indeed had reserves and can smash the Ukies in the East, or the Russian army will be exposed and the Russian state seriously weakened.
It would have been appropriate to simply take custody of the UKN MIC factories rather than destroy them as it will only result in US & EU equipment being brought in.
Unlewss they were supplying the rebel forces.
Suppose also the UKN people see the light soon and sides with Russia (ie Zelensky get removed), and then those factories are urgently needed if the west escalates thing ?
My oh my, it must be “International 5th/6th Column Day”, so much whining and defeatism going around.
Buh, Russia’s losing the war, everybody’s incompetent, they have no reserves, they must go full bonkers,american style.
Guys, did anybody actually get, what Martyanov and the Saker are trying to explain for weeks now.
It’s sickening to read from people who just wanna get done with this operation, like a tooth extraction.
Get your air-guns out and clean Banderastan on your own.
Oh heavens, I share the frustration.
“…who just wanna get done with this operation”
I suppose that in a war, like in a fight, you can look for a quick end or you can take your time. You can’t call it “special military operation” for more than a year. People will think you’re engaging in doublespeak. This name implies an end this year, so they could start thinking about changing this designation if it’s not going to end in a matter of months. Peskov spoke the truth about casualties; they hoped these would be much lighter when they decided it would be an SMO. Wasn’t the use of the word “war” banned together with “invasion”? There are all kind of pressures to conduct their military operations in a way that justifies the decision to call them a special military operation and not a war. In a war, after so many war crimes and even terrorism, you end these negotiations (that failed) and demand an unconditional surrender. You do things which probably an SMO forbids. Zelensky called the Bucha deaths a case of terrorism. You have to decide if you negotiate with terrorists and for how long you do it if so. It’s not about winning in the end or finally. You have to recognize any errors, different realities too, to achieve the goals according to your own expectations.
Ukraine has killed hundreds if Russian POWs while Russia is treating Ukrainian POWs well.
Thats a no go.
Rumor says every Russian POW has been executed in Ukraine.
Brits know very well what “taking the mickey” means.
Russia is taking the MIC-key, making utter fools of NATOstan infantile imperialists, totally destroying the Military Industrial Complex of Ukraine, as they said clearly they would do.
Woke imperialists are so infantile they loose their sense of humor!
NATO Member Slovakia Announces Transfer Of S-300 Anti-Air System To Ukraine.
Will they be able to use this system from Poland?
Yes,once! the second try will be from the former Poland.
Yes, Ukraine is pretty much done and dusted. The State Dept “Brains Trust” that brought us the geo-political successes of Iraq, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Cuba, Iran, Afghanistan, China, etc……..have chalked up another resounding failure.
Russia can be allowed ten minutes for a smoke break…..and then it must get its skates on to secure the remaining objectives….rolling back NATO to where it was in 1997.
MOTOR SICH was not bombed yet. What is the Russian Air Force waiting for????? “The Motor Sich Joint Stock Company (Ukrainian: АТ «Мотор Січ») in Zaporizhzhia is one of the largest engine manufacturers for airplanes and helicopters worldwide. It is also the only enterprise in Ukraine manufacturing engines for airplanes and helicopters as well as industrial gas turbine installations.”