So now we are 50 days into this Special Military Operation (SMO) and right in between the end of the first phase and the beginning of the second one. So I want to begin by list a few things which were unclear/ambiguous/misunderstood and which now are becoming clear(er):
- There is this saying “no plan survives the first contact with the enemy” which I would even expand to “no plan survives the first contact with reality”. Why? The first one is obvious, the enemy will try to foil your plans, but the second one is less known: in war there is always a large element of chaos simply because your entire country and your military are in one mode up until the initiation of combat operations and because they have to very quickly switch over a completely new reality. The point is therefore not to stick to plan A at any cost, but neither is it to ditch it all and reinvent the wheel. What is needed is a quick response time to identify the problems and fix them. I would say that with this in mind, the Russian military did a very good job by quickly transforming an integrated Ukrainian military capable of strategic operations into a broken-up entity with its various parts isolated and unable to support each other. What is my evidence for that? There has not been a single Ukrainian counter-attack higher than on a subunit (battalion, company) level. Considering that the Ukrainians have the double advantage of being on the defense and having a larger force, this is truly a remarkable achievement. Add to this the money, weapons and intelligence support from the US/NATO and it is nothing short of a triumph.
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The clueless RT still has this on its webpage even though the Moskva sank 24 hours ago!
At the same time, Russia as a whole, and especially the military, did an absolutely awful job talking to the public, both in Russia and in the West. See a typical example of the image on the right. The only mistake the US PYSOPs made was that they really “overdid it”, which profoundly angered and alienated the Russian public which went from “what is going on?” to “we are in a fight for our very survival” very quickly and most Russians are now in what I would refer to a “WWII” mode: total warfare until total victory. In the West, however, the US PSYOPs truly triumphed and totally defeated the Russian counter-propaganda efforts which, the truth be told, were primitive, clumsy, slow and even self-defeating at times. Does that matter? Yes, very. Why?
- Because most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”. Now these are the same folks who until February of 2022 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc. and who in a remarkable feat, became overnight military experts and now are sincerely advising the Russians on how to wage a war. The fact that no “real” war has even begun does not elicit any second thoughts or doubts in these “experts in everything” folks who simply don’t believe that some matters require years of training to achieve the expertise needed to understand even the basics. And no, as Andrei Martyanov always points out, a BA in communications or a law degree do not make you into a military expert overnight (by the way, I notice a very large “overlap” between the COVID death cult members and the armchair generals).
- Objectively, there is also a double language and culture barrier at work here. Very few folks in Zone A are fluent, or even conversant, in Russian and even fewer understand the Russian mindset. So if all the English speaking media (including putatively pro-Russian ones – more about those later) says something it makes no sense to expect most English speakers to find the correct Russian language Telegram channels to get the other side of the information. As for RT and Sputnik, in their naive and clumsy efforts to appear “objective” they just reinforce the Western propaganda narratives.
- Then there is an interesting phenomenon that became very apparent over the past 50 days: there are quite a few websites and blogs that PRETEND to be pro-Russian but, in reality, that support is conditional on Russia supporting their agenda and if Russians do things differently those putatively pro-Russian outlets quickly take up the exact same talking points as the US PSYOPs. There are also a number of PRETEND “liberal” or “Leftist” or “Anti-Imperialist” websites which were ALWAYS CIA-operated but which, over the years, acquired some (totally undeserved) credibility and which have now suddenly “flipped”. Pro-Nazi “liberals”, got to love that…
The result of all this? FUD: fear, uncertainty and doubts of course.
Even worse are the implications of this FUD on many levels:
- It gives the folks in the West a sense of impunity and it almost totally conceals the magnitude of the dangers the Empire of Hate and Lies is facing today: from real food shortages to an economic collapse, and even to a continental war in Europe. After all, if the Russians are losing, then “we” must be winning, so all is well. Not very bright, but oh so human…
- It angers and frustrates the Russian soldiers actually doing the fighting who are living in fear not about a heroic Ukrainian counter-offensive, but what the Russian government (at all levels and in all branches) will screw up next. Want an example? Sure! How about this: until senior LDNR officials began to openly complain about the Russian customs, the latter did not allow non-governmental humanitarian convoys to cross into the Ukraine. This was solved, now the next one is this: how to organize pensions for the families of Russian volunteers who fight in the Ukraine?
- It greatly encourages the Ukrainians to fight this war down to the last Ukrainian and to total destruction of the Ukrainian civil infrastructure. Yes, the united West wants to genocide Russians by means of genociding Ukrainians. It cannot get any more openly satanic than that!
Having said all of the above, we now need to step back and only make some very basic predictions:
- What began as the “special military operation” is now turning into a total war of the united West against Russia and that means that the goal for the West is not peace, its victory, and a Russian defeat. My personal conclusion is that the West will only stop doubling down if the US homeland itself is threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities.
- The Russians are slowly but surely coming to the realization that in spite of all the concessions and retreats made by Russia since 2013 the Empire of Hate and Lies will not stop by itself, it will have to be stopped, by Russia. Again. As the VDV motto says “nobody but us”.
- The Ukrainians have no agency, and neither do the Eurolemmings. In fact, the USA is using both the Ukronazis and their EU serfs as cannon fodder because their calculation is that if Russia wins, then the Eurolemmings will become not only terrified and even more subservient, but also that the EU will burn itself down removing a competitor. I remind you that the USA’s wealth is based on how much the USA profited from both WWI and WWII. So why not with WWIII as long as it remains within the confines of the European theater of operations? And that will be doubly true if Russia loses.
My first conclusion here is that a direct military conflict involving NATO and Russia is now likely.
That, by itself, is simply horrible, but here is a simple truth: if the Anglos, yet again, want to burn down the European continent there might not be anything Russia could do to prevent that. And forget about the suicidal Eurolemmings. Russia can win that war, and she will, but yet again at a huge cost.
And that is exactly what the Anglos want.
So is there a silver lining here or is it all doom and gloom?
In fact, there is: the reactions of the Russian public to the rather ambiguous and sometimes outright weird stuff members of the Russian government, at different levels, have been doing and saying. Like that terrible Medinski presser which totally freaked out most Russians. Or the rumor that Abramovich (!) is negotiating between Moscow and Kiev. Oh I know, that is just another rumor, but considering the DISMAL job of Russian information operations that rumor, and hundreds more, are making the public weary and angry.
And the general public itself, rather than any government officials, started to react to this kind of dangerous FUD by something we could think of as a grassroots counter-propaganda campaign. For example, while the letters Z and V have been banned in the Ukraine (and in Latvia, Moldova, Greece and even in some German states) they are literally all over the Runet and you could say that Z and V have now become part of the Russian alphabet and that they are now often used to replace the traditional Cyrillic Z (З) and V (В).
And now Slovakia is declaring that the Nazis in Kiev are “fighting for the future of Europe“.
Basically, the EU politicians have now de facto rehabilitated the Third Reich. At least now it is official.
Heck, since that war began, even Uber-Atlantic-Integrationist Medvedev has turned into a patriotic hardliner!
So maybe it will be the “Russian street” that will teach the so-called “specialists” how informational warfare is done? I sure hope so!
The other major power from Zone B, China, immediately understood what this was all about: “West’s ban of ‘Z’ symbol a manifestation of its Russophobia“.
Yup, the letter Z is now serving a somewhat similar function to the Star of David in Nazi Germany.
Then there are the many iterations of the following slogans “our cause is just“, “the enemy will be defeated” and “we will go to the end!” which are also all over the Runet. Note that all of these slogans are strongly associated with WWII in the Russian mind.
And then there is this: the, shall we call them “poor communication skills”, of the Kremlin have resulted in a real shitstorm of angry protests and freakouts so the Kremlin had to tone it down by a lot. Yes, Putin PERSONALLY is very popular and trusted (over 80%), but not the government or, even less so, mid-level or local government officials. It would not take much (another major SNAFU for example) to trigger angry protests.
But if anybody is to be truly credited with reassuring the Russian public that no “negotiators” will backstab the Russian military, that honor should go to the “Biden” Administration which “convinced” Zelenski to stop any and all negotiations and to restate the Ukronazis most extreme demands (including the LDNR and Crimea). Now that truly made negotiations not only pointless but pretty much impossible.
Thank you “Biden”!
I also want to use this opportunity publicly express my deepest gratitude to Josip Borrell, the Eurolemming’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, for declaring “this war must be won on the battlefield“! When EU *diplomats* use that kind of language, it has a quasi-miraculous effect on the wannabe “peace camp” in Russia. Even RT (!) seems to have smelled the coffee and now we can find an article entitled “It appears that the West doesn’t want peace in Ukraine“. No kidding, geniuses!
As I have mentioned it in the past, I am personally very much in favor of negotiations and even talking to the enemy during a war, but that should be done very discreetly, very carefully and with the clear “message” to the general public if these negotiations, or leaks about them, are made public. If you cannot negotiate without freaking out your own people, then don’t try, you will do more for peace by shutting up and staying at home. If instead of using the insect-like Medinski (he reminds me of Blinken, same “I am a loser” look) Putin had sent Ramzan Kadyrov the perception about “negotiations” in Russia would probably be very different today.
So what is up next?
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A major battle around the Donbass cauldron - NATO convoys moving into the Ukraine
- The collapse of the “the Russians are losing” narrative replaced by
- A Russian “atrocity” of some type
- The Western media will begin to “discover sins” amongst those they lionized until now (see image)
- The full dimension of the economic crisis resulting from the collapse of the international economic system will become much more apparent, especially in the EU.
What about the Black Sea Fleet – can it operate without its flagship?
As I mentioned yesterday, I am not a navy person and neither do I know what plans the Russian General Staff had for the BSF. But I can say this: Slava-class guided missile cruisers were designed in the 70s as aircraft carrier destroyers. For this purpose, they were equipped with very powerful missiles, superb (by 1970s standards!) S-300F, OSA-MA SAMs, 6 AK-630 point air defenses, and a lot of (old) electronics. Since there are no aircraft carriers in the Black Sea, I suppose that the Moskva main role was as a command ship (its main cannons don’t provide the range needed to support amphibious assault operations) and also as a relatively powerful mobile, floating, radar. The Moskva was hit by something about 50km south of Snake Island which means that she was also probably watching the movement of ships near/from Romania. Frankly, that is not a task for a guided-missile cruiser.
[Sidebar: as to what actually caused the explosion, my personal best guess is a Ukrainian mine detached by the recent storm and drifting southwards which the Russians failed to detect. That would explain the hull breach which later resulted in the Moskva taking in water and sinking while in tow. I still don’t buy the “Ukrainian 2 “Neptunes” version at all, if only because the Moskva had very solid air defenses while bad weather makes minesweeping very hard. But we will probably never find out for sure, unless the members of the crew reveal what really happened]
Considering that the Ukraine has NO navy at all, I don’t see how the loss of the Moskva would hamper or significantly complicate any BSF operations (navy folks, please correct me here if I missed something!).
The Moskva also had an important role in the eastern Mediterranean (Syria) and yes, there is probably where she will be missed the most. I hope that this loss will provide the impetus to massively accelerate the modernization of old Russian (well, Soviet, really) ships and the construction of new ones.
I would even be inclined to think that the deployment of hypersonic ASM has not only made aircraft carriers obsolete (at least against Russia) but, by the same logic, has made old Russian/Soviet “carrier hunter killers” obsolete by implication. Nowadays, even SMALL missile boats can fire Russian hypersonic missiles thousands of kilometers away, so why bother with really big ships in anti-carrier operations? Range? Okay. Firepower? Okay. Bigger and better sensors? Okay. But not in the Black Sea. And not with a minimally modernized 1970 era ship.
Conclusion:
There is no doubt that Russia fought superbly during the SMO and there is no doubt either that the Russians probably calculated that “just” a SMO would be sufficient to achieve the Russian goals (immediate: protect the LDNR, intermediate: denazify and disarm the Ukraine and long term: change the European and world collective security arrangements) was wrong. It is now becoming almost certain that a real, much larger, war to crush the Ukrainian military will be needed, and it will have to be fought with much larger forces and means.
The Empire of Hate and Lies has decided to “go max” and is acting exactly as it would be in preparations for a much larger war in Europe. For example, with the steady stream of mass expulsions of Russian diplomats, there is a very real possibility that Russia and the US/NATO/EU will sever their diplomatic relationships, something traditionally considered as the last step before a declaration of war.
One of the best things the Kremlin could do now is to carefully study how the Iranians since 1979 (!) managed to successfully:
- Never be drawn into a war they did not want (except the one launched by the West and the USSR following the Islamic Revolution which Iran won, by the way)
- Deter the Anglo-Zionists from direct attacks on Iran
- Survive both sanctions and even a blockade
- Defeat US PSYOPs (remember Neda Agha-Soltan?)
- Actively assist in the liberation of other countries around the world and, especially, the Middle-East
- Superbly combine political pragmatism with deep religious piety and idealism
- Preserve their economy (albeit with major difficulties, but not collapse!)
- Preserve their Islamic societal and civilizational model
- Remain truly sovereign
- Maintain a rock-solid morale throughout it all
If Iran could do that, why can’t we? I have an answer to this question, but I won’t offer it until the end of combat operations.
As I have also mentioned many times, Russia is a project, a ‘moving target’, a society that is recovering from at least 300 years of foreign domination (especially spiritual and political) and a society that is STILL changing, very fast in many aspects.
Yes, Russia has a superb military and immense resources. But that is not enough.
Some say that the next “New Russia” was “born in the LDNR”, and I hope that they are right, not in the sense that Russia needs to copy all the decisions (often bad ones too!) of the LDNR, but Russia does need to purge herself from those in positions of power who are just stuck in the past or unable to adapt to new realities.
Can Russia denazify the planet? By herself, no. At most she can militarily destroy all of Zone A, but only in a mutual suicide act of desperation (the US nuclear triad is still mostly functional, in spite of its problems). But can Russia and the rest of Zone B denazify the planet? Absolutely. Even “just” Russia and China together are more powerful than the rest of the planet combined, add India to this and you have a truly unstoppable force.
The Empire is already dead, but like a stinking unburied corpse, it still has enough “toxicity momentum” to continue to threaten the planet until the USA is both denazified and disarmed. That will take a lot of time, even with the recent massive acceleration of the pace of events.
So no quick fix, no quick solution, no quick victory (or defeat for that matter). This is not want Russia wanted, but that is what she got.
May she make the most of it to transform herself into the civilizational realm she was for centuries. That could be the biggest homage to those fighting for the future of Russia today.
Andrei
PS: I want to remind you all one more time that if the USA and Russia openly and directly clash militarily, I will immediately “freeze” the blog until the situation is resolved in one way or another. I am a guest, a legal alien (“Green Card”), in the USA and it is not my role to speak if my country of current residence and my country of ethnic origin are at war with each other.
UPDATE 1: I should have mentioned that there have been large demonstrations in Serbia in support of Russia. So far, Serbia is the only country with a strong pro-Russian part of the population. No, not all, of course but MUCH more than in any other country, at least that I am aware of. I want to thank all our Serbian brothers and sisters for standing by us!
UPDATE 2: Russian sources are reporting that the nonsense at the border has resumed again, and folks are waiting for hours and even days to get across the border. If true, this sounds like outright sabotage to me.
For Saker – Jacques Baud SND :
US, EU sacrificing Ukraine to ‘weaken Russia’: fmr. NATO adviser
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/15/us-eu-sacrificing-ukraine-to-weaken-russia-fmr-nato-adviser/
Yes, I saw that. Same outfit I came from, but I don’t recall him personally.
Zelensky said the same thing on the record in an interview with “The Economist”:
https://www.economist.com/europe/volodymyr-zelensky-on-why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin/21808448
«Mr Zelensky divides NATO into five camps. First are those who “don‘t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.»
Yes Saker a wider war can’t be avoided anymore- it will be fought hard and brutal but it will have a short duration – Up to now Russia’s military operation has a just cause, i hope it stays that way – don’t want to offend you personally but Russia may better be careful once it engages in a all out war, because of the wickedness of the West – they will easily sacrifice its own population to achieve victory – soon there will be a second front opened – may the Turks cut a deal with the EU – the East and West will face off in the Mediterranean- that’s when it will get serious –
it will happen!
Only your opinion, General.. nutto’s supplies running out, most going to Azovs, so fight with what? Do you think nutto countries wish to be flattened for Azov? NO. Dumb line of thought. The West’s hysteria, as the Ukie military collapse data dribbles thru, will scare their pants off.. except for the brave Mr Rotten Burg.
@turk
Agreed. The reality is that the Ukie army was well prepared, coordinated dug in and larger than the entire force that NATO ex US could field. Aaaaaaand its gone.
I get the impression from the UK that the incompetents at large in Westminster, seeing the convergence of so many crisis that they are materially and mentally ill equipped to deal with – simultaneous inflation, supply, public health implosion, unavoidable tax rises, overheating housing market and no way to raise rates, decimated military propped up by overseas conscript migrants, and an entire civil service that is still refusing to return to the office etc – they appear to be racing around the living room with their hair on fire about the one thing that has a definitive boundary, can fill the papers up and has one response that a blockhead could arrive at: ‘send weapons’.
Because the reality is that the love child of a host of deferred problems and a litany of historical sins are coming together in what is clearly a terminal event: over the horizon rides the real likelihood of default and the loss of a 500yr bankster primacy. We don’t even have the military to fight our way out.
It is sad. I love my country. The ground and soil, its vernacular imagination and architecture and even its history. I am listening to the blackbirds and robins singing lustily outside the window of this country of gardens. We are a remarkable people, left to our lawns and brickwork, poetry and music. It is genuinely shameful looking at the shower of incompetence and wickedness at all levels of government run it into the ground and up against walls.
It is sad. You are right, and I think and hope you are right about the unlikelihood of a much wider war, even though the west might have wanted to go there in the beginning. It just seems like Putin ate their lunch, something I frankly hope for.
Because, and this is a crucial thing that many outside of the US seem not to get, this war is not actually being conducted by the USA proper. The USA, the actual USA, elected Donald Trump, who never would have gone there, in November 2020, but it suffered a hostile takeover at the hands of Davos and the internationalists from Wall Street, the military industrialist complex, and multinational corporations, not to mention the embedded traitors seeded in the swamp over a period of decades. And yes, probably about 60 million of my fellow countrymen who still suffer from group psychosis.
It is a deep irony that two deeply Christian nations, the US and Russia, are now pitted against each other, tearing up the people of a predominantly Catholic country, at the behests of a cabal of atheists who take their cue from Robespierre, the Bavarian Illuminati, and the whole stinking Satanic enterprise that made its way through Russia and around the world before finally infecting the last man standing, the US. People around the rest of the world better hope we can somehow throw this monkey off our back, because they’re going to need us when time for true rebuilding comes. They always have.
This war Is not about the Ukraine, ist about the positioning for a new world order – Yes they will fight to the last Ukrainian and than to the last European – both are literally that stupid as you can see very clearly – when everything is over, Europa will be a pile of rubbles and part of England sunken- we have seen nothing yet – NOTHING!
It can be avoided no problem. The US has no interest of that. Accidents can however happen when you mess around like the US is doing.
But do I agree with Jacques Baud? Because that’s always how I saw the conflict in Portugal. Ukraine is nothing but the puppet of the USA. To close the siege of missile ramps in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. According to the Wolfwitz Doctrine to nullify all Russian military force as explained in NATO, Nuland’s husband, neocon Robert Kagan – one of the main advocates of liberal interventionism. Also remember the tearing of the ABM and INF treaties.
The timing of now increasing the provocation to Russia to force Putin to react is related to two facts. The unlimited Russia-China alliance that has the neocons completely lost their heads and stop with Nord Stream II to isolate Russia and ruin EU economies with much more expensive American liquefied gas (LNF). That’s why, living in the EU, I can’t understand the Harakiri of the EU that is completely subaltern to the US.
Nor did he know that German Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz on February 19 had proposed to Zelenskyy that “Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security agreement between the West and Russia”. And that Biden and Putin signed the pact?! But Zelensky refused?! First of all, Zelensky’s puppet doesn’t decide anything in Ukraine. But if they said NO, it was at the behest of the US that wanted war as they now don’t want any peace agreement. Because they want to continue isolating and wearing down Russia. And secondly, Nato outside Ukraine is what Putin has always demanded and the real reason for the war. That Germany in NATO with Merkel never authorized!
That’s why I ask Saker – do you believe in the WSJ and Scholz’s proposal to Zelensky? When has Putin been speaking out against the eastward enlargement of NATO since 2007? Incidentally, NATO which is supposed to be a Defense Alliance of Europe was already ready to go to the INDO PACIFICO also to destabilize China. How did it go to Libya to kill Gaddaffi and to Iraq to kill more children than in Hiroshima.
Two more notes from my review living in Europe. Agreeing with almost everything Saker writes and I appreciate it. Congratulations! The main consequence of this war in my opinion will be the end of the petrodollar and a New World Order (NWO) as Pepe Escobar writes a long time ago. At the end of the day the US will be much more isolated than Russia. And only China can save the EU from harakiri. Because China on the way to the world’s biggest economy except services is already the EU’s biggest partner. Therefore, China is also not interested in an EU in ruins.
And as a final clue I just want to confirm to Saker the monstrous disinformation or propaganda campaign against Russia in this conflict in all EU media. Where they started by censoring the Russian media that they accuse of being a center of disinformation and the kings of cybercrime and then the West is much worse. If I didn’t see it, I wouldn’t believe it. And just a final note about NOM. No one can feel sorry for leaving a World Order under the hegemony of the US that destroyed the UN, planet Earth and with a distribution of wealth with pre-Industrial Revolution indicators. While Bezos and MUSK play spaceships. Just this week some AMAZON workers won the right to form a union in a US court in Sec. XXI?
Thank you for your attention Saker.
people in the Empire are the last to know their Empire is no more
Maybe because they are slow processes. The hegemony of the USA begins to be drawn at the end of World War II with the war debts and after they ate the pound to their English dogs in Europe, but the unipolar world as we know it today only begins after the end of the Cold War. When James Baker promises Gorbachev that NATO would never go east in exchange for German reunification. When in fact, if NATO were a Defense Alliance, it should have ended when the Warsaw Pact ended. But the first NATO draft was very clear: US in, USSR out and Germany down. NATO has always been the armed wing of Washington’s foreign policy in Europe as the IMF is its financial wing to plunder the economies where it intervenes.
The US has already plundered virtually the entire world since replacing France and England as the world’s two great colonizing powers. Including Russia in the 1990s. And World War II was just the last time a war completely destroyed Europe. And it was precisely so that we would never again see a war in Europe that the EU was born. And how is it possible that strong powers in NATO like Germany and France would not have stopped NATO from going over Russia’s borders? And they even supported the coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014. What were they waiting for?
I personally am a democrat, but if Russia was a liberal democracy many years ago the US had turned Russia into 4 or 5 Ukraine for Wall Street to steal the great Russian energy sources all like what happened in the 90’s. By the way, Putin went with most certainly the most pro-European Russian leader ever to reach the Kremlin! And what did you get in return? Betrayal as even now with Chanceller Scholz’s banana with Nord Stream II. Where Germany has also spent millions. And to finish, just say that the petrodollars that are born with Nixon with the USA completely bankrupt are the biggest financial fraud in world history. With which the USA dominates the world for more than 50 years. In Portugal we are still paying for the last subprime crash that also destroyed many American cities. And many banks in Europe. And with them many jobs.
excellent yes you nailed it Paulo
the tradegy is of what the USA could have been if it had not been corrupted in 1913 with
the creation of the federal reserve and thus handing over the people as collateral for the debt
where the rich take all the profit an pass on the losses to the people to pay
In America we say the second decade of the twentieth century killed the Federal government as we knew it. We enabled a federal tax in incomes; we changed to popular election of senators; we created the Federal Reserve; and we passed prohibition.
and last, we gave women the right to vote. 😀
I don’t know about this, maybe you speak of the elites and what extend themselves as leaders based on stolen elections. This country is a wreck, an utter wreck and I think most US citizens over 40yo know it and I think most under 40yo know little to nothing but what they don’t know-they’re zombies both in an escapist virtual world and slopping up diversity/equity/inclusion propaganda to either demonstrate their “goodness” and value or if in the victim class to take positions from the competent. Any stroll though say a Walmart, a supermarket, a downtown area, or a college campus and it is clear and obvious. At least to those with their eyes open.
The ones perpetuate the conflict are the weakest amongst us, several generations have gamed the system to guilt the competent to “share” and be “tolerant” The tipping point has come and gone, they are in charge now. Just like Orwell’s animal farm. These faux intellectuals of Twitter or Facebook believe the digital echo chamber vanity demonstrating platforms are a real warfield, that Twitter and Facebook can just cancel 150M plus russians and the problems will go away.. They are naive and selfish with their watered down credentials and affirmative action positions. They are hollow.
I think that in any conflict of attrition, it will be the USA will collapse internally. I’d say 30 percent of the people are disgusted with what it has become, and 30 percent have not the competence or the grit virtues necessary to withstand any impact to their lifestyles that require any real sacrifice. The rest seem to be oblivious abandoned to their constant video gaming, entertainment streaming, or drug, alcohol and/or porn addictions.
In the US, anybody looking though any lens of reality understands that yes, we’re in a bad state here, it will take generations and hard lessons to turn around (if even possible), and indeed it reflects the end of empire.
Finally, Thank you Saker for this forum and I perfectly understand your concerns about further writing should the situation deteriorate. I’ll miss it when it is gone.
I don’t know if Norham’s answer was for me, but I guess not. But I’m just going to give two or three notes on a european economist’s point of view on the political and economic reality of the US and today.
The first proof that the White House administrations can do little to say that they are completely shackled is that even at the level of foreign policy, it does not matter whether they are Republicans or Democrats, everything is equal. And I’m not much given to conspiracy theories. But I could start right away by giving the example of Obama, Nobel when he shouldn’t even know all the rooms in the White House, just because he wasn’t called Bush or worse Dick. The world was fed up with the oil wars. With the first promise to close Guantanamo to date. This is the only way to see the strength of the President.
So something dominates the power of administrations. And even I grew up hearing it here in Europe that in the US nobody gets to be President without the support of the Jewish lobby. So it must be true. And far be it from me to be racist, anti-Semitic or xenophobic. There are good and bad people everywhere.
Now one thing is factual. The US economy has never stopped growing, less or more, and workers’ wages have been frozen for 40 years. And the answer to that is called neoliberalism, financial deregulation that Roosevelt already fought against during the great crash of 1929.
So if I were asked today which lobbies control the most American administrations, I would immediately indicate high finance and the military industrial complex with neocon hawks. That they are the ones who always bring the US into wars instead of looking further inwards.
A country whose greed has driven almost all of its industrial sector abroad. And I still studied at a time when GM was always the biggest company in the world. And even the big companies had national and social concerns.
Today none of that exists, CEOs only work to fill the pockets of shareholders in the short term, so if relocating brings more profits they don’t even think twice. And there go the jobs.
And on a financial level, the problem is even worse and has been going on since the abandonment of the gold standard. Today, the banks themselves issue most of the money. Not on a printer but through credit. And worse, even with empty coffers. They type the amount requested on the computer and it’s over and they assume that when the credit is paid, the money soon appears?! And when it’s not paid because someone even lost their job? We have a credit bubble and many bubbles lead to a crash that destroys even more companies and jobs in a completely virtual economy. Aside from the truly real money that is withdrawn every year from the economy to offshore companies.
And the only situation for the current state not only of the USA but of the world is that we no longer have a virtual economy, but an economy in which every cent issued has to be backed. That it can go back to being gold as it was for a long time. And above all much more regulation on all markets. No market economy can survive without regulation.
And the US has only managed to keep up with the majority of people increasingly poorer because instruments like the IMF manage to make other countries pay for US crashes. As it happened again with the subprime, despite all the destruction they also felt in the US. With entire cities gone.
Good luck.
“Because China on the way to the world’s biggest economy except services is already the EU’s biggest partner.” China will never ‘get there’?
‘Fighting’ yesterday’s ‘battles’?
Aside from the negative externalities of ‘growth’, what is ignored is the ‘energy supply side’?
‘We’ have 16 years?
‘Global peak oil production may have already happened in October of 2018 (https://energyskeptic.com/2020/will-covid-19-delay-peak-oil/ Table 1). It is likely the decline rate will be 6%, increasing exponentially by +0.015% a year (see post “Giant oil field decline rates and peak oil”). So, after 16 years remaining oil production will be just 10% of what it was at the peak.’
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/climate-change-dominates-news-coverage-at-expense-of-more-important-existential-issues/
Or,
‘We’ have ten years?
“ . . . our best estimate is that the net energy
33:33 per barrel available for the global
33:36 economy was about eight percent
33:38 and that in over the next few years it
33:42 will go down to zero percent
33:44 uh best estimate at the moment is that
33:46 actually the
33:47 per average barrel of sweet crude
33:51 uh we had the zero percent around 2022
33:56 but there are ways and means of
33:58 extending that so to be on the safe side
34:00 here on our diagram
34:02 we say that zero percent is definitely
34:05 around 2030 . . .
we
34:43 need net energy from oil and [if] it goes
34:46 down to zero
34:48 uh well we have collapsed not just
34:50 collapse of the oil industry
34:52 we have collapsed globally of the global
34:54 industrial civilization this is what we
34:56 are looking at at the moment . . . “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxinAu8ORxM&feature=emb_logo
Or, have 4-5 years? {unlikely?}.
“The greatest threat to humanity on Earth is the escalating Arctic atmospheric methane buildup, caused by the destabilization of subsea methane hydrates. This subsea Arctic methane hydrate destabilization will go out of control in 2024 and lead to a catastrophic heatwave by 2026.”
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/extinction-by-2027.html?fbclid=IwAR3FEKqILrzS_Le1Z4LRmEvqoSRz6p2rBIFjbNmY1NFB_rHeU4RpDT8u2Zg
I don’t know what James is saying that China will never be the biggest economy in the world or the biggest economic partner of the EU if we exclude services. Even for my English I apologize. Because the biggest partner has been since 2021 and anyway they are facts that are not even worth debating. We are talking about projections from some of the most prestigious western institutions. In the US and the EU. And as an economist, what I can say to James is that when you make estimates of this type, you obviously consider all the variables. Like the oil that worries James so much. Since it seems to me that he is also very concerned about our ecological footprint and climate change, and very well. To which we could also add the world underpopulation if we think that if the Earth needed 100 thousand years to reach 1 000 million inhabitants, it only took another 100 years to double that population and reach 2 000 million. And then another 50 years to reach 4 billion. Currently, we are practically 8 billion on the face of the Earth. And according to a Dan Brown novel, 40 years from now we could be 16 billion or even 32 billion fighting for survival and we will all fail. And it also says that the planet’s overcrowding is already behind all the big problems we hear about on Earth today. From all areas, economy, environment and health. Because all available resources are subject to the planet’s overcrowding.
However, despite any scientific evidence, I see above all many imbalances one of the biggest problems in Europe is the aging of the population with a very big impact on what I consider the peak of our civilization. European welfare states. Built in Europe right after World War II for all the sacrifices asked of families. (Which Mrs. Thacher soon began to try to destroy in the 20th century to deliver health, school and pension funds to the greed of private business. I don’t know if James knows but in northern Europe where oil is also explored these profits are public and not private). But back to the topic, namely in terms of pensions with countries like Portugal where there are already as many retired people as people working. This means that if we have an overpopulated south, we have a north desperate for young people. In the same way that other imbalances worry me a lot, such as 1% of the population holding 80% of the world’s wealth. Which is already an indicator of feudalism! And most of this wealth is suppressed to the real economy tax havens. And there we go back to neoliberalism without any kind of regulation by the great nations. Just to give an example, Google in the US last year paid zero taxes in Ireland. And when Biden arrived at the White House, he even had big plans to repatriate some of the profits from companies like Google.
This is to say that this is also where the unipolar world took us all. Or even on the brink of extinction as James says. And I ask, isn’t it time we changed something? After realizing where the rich north with only 15% of the world’s population led the whole world? Not to mention that all the wars in the world today also revolve around natural resources? Otherwise, why is it that the USA that always says that it cares a lot about the well being of people all over the world, even in its own backyard, cares so much about Venezuela and nothing about the poorest Honduras, just the side that even sends many more emigrants to your wall?
About the Chinese economy surpassing the American economy in the very short term, it is estimated in 2027, there is no longer any doubt today. And maybe there’s a big investment of new nuclear plants running up to the problem that James points out. Despite partners in the south such as Venezuela or Iran. Not to mention Russia and Saudi Arabia itself, with whom it has just concluded major contracts. And modern economies depend not only on oil but on rare metals. That China has already reduced exports and that they also abound in Russia and even in the Donbass in Ukraine.
It is often said that China has benefited the most from globalization and the relocation of many companies in search of cheap labor. Something I will not now debate. Even because it has to be said that more than 25% of Chinese investment depends on its diaspora abroad. But China is no longer just the world’s largest factory. And I’ll just cite two examples once with MIT data. Who has long studied the Chinese technological leap in the last 30 years. Notice how even with a lot of technology transfer through several joint ventures in the automotive sector, it never managed to produce really big combustion cars. In terms of electric vehicles, China already has three times more battery factories in project than the rest of the world combined. And five of the world’s top ten electric vehicle companies. In the same way that at the technological level, chips have always been a huge weakness and with the advent of a new paradigm such as AI, MIT has already led MIT to profess that the last great Technological Revolution with the US in the lead was Informatics. Because the Chinese are already far ahead when it comes to the new Quantum Revolution. And that all US attempts to block Chinese technological progress, such as the Ukraine conflict arises to try to block even deeper change at the global level, only accelerated Chinese technological progress. Which obviously does not all depend on oil.
Two final notes to say that for the current change it is completely different whether China is the first or the second world economy and just think of its southern partners gathered in the BRICS. What happens in my opinion is that much more than half of the world’s population is fed up with being ruled by the richest north, almost always with a lot of arrogance. Of course, it is always important to have a strong leader in every battle. That is why Russia’s alliance with China, announced with pomp and circumstance, set off alarm bells in the White House. On the eve of dedicating himself more to the Indo Pacifico if James also still remembers after that incident with the French submarines. And in this part of the globe, it might be a good idea to try to understand what has happened lately in the modest Solomon Islands. To whom the Chinese provided help and then went to Australia to try to treat the government as the US has now treated Germany.
Finally, besides not wanting to offend anyone here, the only shirt I wear is the Social Justice shirt. Of Justice that never helped, for example, the development of a continent like Africa, but on the other hand it has already destroyed peace in the Middle East a number of times. To wear a shirt, as is obvious from my small country, Portugal. But when my rulers, not all of them, decided to bring that summit of Messrs. of the War in Iraq, I went out into the street to protest. In the world all men should be treated as equals. Which is very far from happening in the present. That is why profound changes are needed at the level of world leadership. And this is still my biggest certainty to this day. And it is also true that not all changes are a sign of better days. But if we don’t try to change, we’ll never know either and we’ll be here to try to understand that. That this unipolar world never had anything positive to offer we should all have realized a long time ago. And the conflict in Ukraine was just the latest example! With the risk of falling into a War III that no one would have thought possible just a few days ago. Even because Ukraine itself has completely stopped talking about peace. Zelensky’s screenwriter has just given an interview to a newspaper in Portugal to say that Ukraine is teaching Russia a great lesson. Someone wants to ignite the war.
Good afternoon!
Yes ukraine is puppet of the USA. This war is revealing a lot of hypocrisy. Germany is showing a lot of falsehood and pretense, immoral posture. 1991-1992-1993-1994 = Germany distributed all East German weapons to Croatia.
In those years; everyone thought it was a civil war. Was not. And Germany was a big reason for that war to start (obeying their master USA).
All those innocent people died mostly from a German bullet.
1999
Germany bombed villages with uranium cluster bombs.
If a German is living well and free in Germany; it’s not because Germans are good or work hard.
For the German and European (and US) economy to maintain itself; innocent children needed to be burned to death in the middle of Europe!
And again; for the US economy to find a way out of its bankruptcy; Germany is obeying her master, and licking her master’s everywhere. Same as europe, same as ukraine.
Nobody attacked Ukraine.
What is being attacked is the US and the Pentagon.
Zelenska is not a president, but a useless puppet.
It is a fact that there will be a war intended to be between nato and Russia that the english and gringos will want to keep in europe/Russia.
Better for once destroy in a single move all nuclear weapons in england, france, germany and italy while destroying weapons from usa in poland and romania.
And several convincing strikes in usa.
If not, well, expect ALL hyienas attack Russia at once…. other choice? I do not believe there is any other.
I hope there are no nuclear weapons in Romania. But, if they were, who will ever tell the population?
Anyway it is legit: the nuclear arsenal of the west has to be destroyed now, as Russia has the superiority: hypersonics, others as many experienced military tacticians said, even a CIA Vincent Pry in a youtube video many of us already saw I guess. He is biased, but… nice video:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xuIVYKReWPA&t=157s&pp=2AGdAZACAQ%3D%3D
The Empire of Hate and lies will never stop. Only when the war will be on their land. They could care less if Europe is destroyed, it might even benefit them.
I too believe that the only way to stop the US is to bring the war in their land. They never saw a modern war in their land, can’t even imagine it. Of course, it was the civil war but that one is long forgotten and was not a modern war, with modern weapons of mass destruction.
Or there is another way: Europe to have an wake up call and see they are played a fool by UK+US. Yet, if the leaders are too corrupt, they will have the same suicidal strategy as Zel has in Ukraine. But somehow my guess is the EU doesn’t want to self-destruct, I mean completely.
Anyway now Black Sea Oil & Gas US company starts to extract gas from Romaniaæs waters, Black Sea Aurora and Neptune, so they will start selling, Russia will not have the advantage forever. I donæt know exactly how much gas they can extract and how they can distribute it in the EU, but they will find a way.
…hmm US civil was plenty bloody to qualify for modern war in level of casualties.
Not forgotten.
Waking up… we hear this since a few years already.
And its not only about waking up, its what to do just after it ?
Wake up AND resist ! Where are the active popular forces or even capable cheefs to lead them ?
Even if the whole western “netflixized” society would be awakened I bet it would nothing happen.
And what just was told above by someone from the US, for people under 40yr this isn’t even the tendence. They are getting more “woke” that awake.
Looks like really “the die is cast” (la messe est dite).
Falling empire, falling virtue, falling vital force.
They are doing the great final subversion: internal and external, biological, ethnic, cultural, economic and tutti quanti, simultaneous collapse from all around, and if it would not make it, lets do armageddon.
We are I think now not far from this last card playing out.
Waking up… and then? Posting “no no don’t agree” on Elon Musk’s brand new Twitter?
Too little too late.
To overthrough them NOW (wich seems the only way) we would need millions ON THE STREETS in most of the EU countries (+US) ready to heat it up, risking, yes, risking their physical integrity.
And there would be a need of a charismatic leader who would risk also to remain a martyr for the future.
We saw, Trump would not willing to go this far.
So. Matter of time to “Game over”. As written by the way.
Sí hay una solución rápida: acercar la guerra a las puertas de Estados Unidos. Para ello no es necesario atravesar ningún océano, es suficiente con llevarla a Siria/Palestina.
Translation – – Yes, there is a quick solution: bring the war closer to the doors of the United States. For this it is not necessary to cross any ocean, it is enough to take her to Syria/Palestine.
I totally agree – – Especially in Syria. Give USA 24 hrs to start packing -or no warning at all. They rally don’t deserve a warning -just a wipe out.
Yes they are sacrificing Ukraine – -to the last Uke! I hope Russia targets the USA Embassy in Kiev -even if all the Staff are gone home tail between legs. It would make sure the Yanks had nothing to cme back for & be a great propaganda move. – ie We’re not afraid of the USA –get stuffed !
“What is needed is a quick response time to identify the problems and fix them”.
An efficient OODA loop.
“Superbly combine political pragmatism with deep religious piety and idealism”
This ability makes a nation (or a movement) profoundly resilient.
Precisely Ned B. In contrast, the anglophone West, lacking these attributes, is profoundly brittle.
Perhaps this also explains the intensity of its hate for Russia. The West looks upon Russia, and senses its own spiritual degradation.
you mean like how the Pharisees viewed Jesus…
and give Andrew a cigar !
The prospect of a limited nuclear war limited to central Europe is nnow very much on the table. In this scenerio a NATO-Russian conflict centered on Poland and Belarus errupts to engulf Kaliningrad, the lower Baltic States and perhaps Germany. Finland would also likely be the subject of a few limited nuclear strikes. Absent any strikes on the Russian or American mainlands, this would be a survivable situation in which a natural balance of power is established. American hegemony in the Balkans would remain intact while Russia secures its western and northwestern flanks.
In no circumstances can even a “limited” nuclear war be allowed. The risk is too high, and it will permanently rupture the world.
Special action will need to be taken against the satanist elites in the coming years in order to preserve the future of this world.
So long as my heart beats I will never allow it. If it happens anyway, then it means I failed in my own mission, and there will be grave consequences at a spiritual level.
Isaac Asimov (1920 – 1992): “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that your ignorance is just as good as my knowledge.”
There has never been any such thing as ‘limited nuclear war’. There’s no way to tell if the first missiles launched are part of a limited strike or the beginning of annihilation. Once one side sees missiles launching they will launch everything they feel is necessary for victory or survival.
Exactly right. The use of nuclear weapons of any magnitude must be avoided at all costs. The nuclear genie, once let out of the bottle, will not be contained, and will likely escalate to doomsday. The sooner Russia can wrap up its military operation, the better. Scott Ritter’s post-war scenario of a secured eastern Ukraine under Russian control, while Europe is left to deal with the festering western region, seems like the best possible outcome. The longer this drags on, the more likely the US and its tools in the EU/NATO will be able to pour more gasoline on the fire with weaponry to enable Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian.
Absurd.
Belarus is far much more important for Russia than any of the stupid Baltics for US.
Belarus is Russia in all effects apart from a different government.
An attack in Belarus would be threaded as an attack in Russia.
A nuclear hit to Belarus would have a quick respond to Washington, not to Poland
During the Cold War, all the wargames of a direct USA-USSR clash had 1 of 2 results, A threat of nukes caused the clash to end, or it quickly went to full bore Total Nuclear War.
Absolutely true.
Belarus is Russia in every way, except for no oligarchs, well organized and working like a clock, no very rich people, but no poor either. Belarus is White Russia.
You are incorrect: there is such a thing as a “limited nuclear war.” The first one was fought in 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan. It stopped at two. It had four bombs in its stockpile. That is the very definition of “limited.”
Something very similar could happen in central Europe. Tit-for-tat tactictal nuclear exchanges on Belarussian and Polish soil that kill large numbers of NATO and Russian troops but avoid the American and Russian heartlands. Neither Russia nor America would launch everything they had for the simple reason that neither Russia nor America are directly threatened by nuclear explosions in central Europe. It is a disposable area. I’m sorry if the harsh reality of war disturbs you, but that is a fact. You only need to look to history to see how disposable the Poles have always been regarded by the rest of Europe. This time is no different. It would be horrific, of course, but it would not be the end of the world for the majority of the world. It certainly would not create any strategic issues for America or Russia, Cid’s emotional doctrine notwithstanding.
More dangerous are military strikes that involve the Baltic states, Kaliningrad and Germany. Those begin to touch on the Russian and American strategic interests and create the possibility of a dangerous spiral in which unliimited nuclear exchanges form a chain reaction. But even this is not a certainty.
In short, your fear of nuclear war based upon several generations of propaganda about its “unsurvivability” has no impact on the probabilities of a nuclear tactical exchange taking place and of the survival of the species in its aftermath. In a limited exchange, central Europe would suffer but very few others would. And in a hundred years – aside from a few genetic anomolies – there would be no trace of it save a line in the history books. And that too is a fact.
At the time of the bombs dropped on Japan
the USA was only one that had em…
alot diff today IMO …. can you be sure limited stays limited only !
There are major problems with this:
– Japan did not have nuclear weapons to retaliate with
– There has never been an exchange of nuclear weapons between 2 countries
– You assume Russia does not consider Belarus as part of its homeland. There is no equivalence between Poland and Belarus. How do you know Russia will not also strike the US closer to home and start bringing sizable US casualties into the mix?
– 72 years of empirical historical fact is not propaganda
– Everyone knows a limited nuclear exchange would be an unacceptable precedent
Everyone does NOT know a limited nuclear exchange would be an unacceptable precedent. It would be acceptable to those who suffer no adverse consequences from it. There is no logic in your statement, only an appeal to emotion based on the dogma that “no one survives a nuclear war.” The majority of the world would survive a limited nuclear exchange in central Europe.
The notion that a nuclear war would destroy humanity is propaganda. It would not. Even if each of the 10,000+ nuclear weapon that exist today were detonated across the globe it would not destroy there would still remain pockets of survivors sufficient to repopulate the world. Even radiation would not cover the globe. The human race would survive.
The fact that nuclear weapons have not been used since 1945 is not proof that nuclear war is unsurvivable. It is merely proof of good judgment. But it is certainly survivable. Whether you would want to be a survivor is an entirely different matter.
Belarus is not Russia, it is a slavic buffer for Russia. I would doubt the Russians have the same callous disregard for it that the west does for Poland, but it is unlikely to be viewed as an attack on the Russian homeland absent something more.
I reiterate: nuclear war may be unthinkable for you. It is not unthinkable to the militaries of Russia and the US. It is their job to think about it, to plan for it, and if necessary to execute it. And you can be sure they will should they deem circumstances warrant it.
There have been more than sufficient modelling exercises that clearly indicate that even a “minor regional nuclear conflict” involving no more than 100 warheads (typically India vs. Pakistan), would have very detrimental effects on a number of very critical systems.
On an environmental basis the amount of material ejected into the upper atmospheric regions would be sufficient to produce a significant drop in global temperatures, as well as significant drops in direct sunlight. This would certainly lead to large reductions in crop yields (and that’s before we consider that fertiliser may be in very limited supply), so consequent famine. Add in damage to the ozone layer and plant life might have a really tough time even surviving, let alone setting seed.
Then, we’ve got the dead, dying (possibly slowly dying) and refugee problem to consider. Major population centres will be targeted, and where are the survivors going to go? All services have been destroyed, and the large number of unburied, so decaying, corpses will pose a very significant public health problem
This is a useful read, from those who probably know quite a lot more than the rest of us (in this particular area). It is very far from reassuring, and I’d prefer not to find out first-hand that they are correct in their assumptions.
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/
From the article:
Limited Nuclear War
One form of limited nuclear war would be like a conventional battlefield conflict but using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. Here’s a hypothetical scenario: After its 2014 annexation of Crimea, Russia attacks a Baltic country with tanks and ground forces while the United States is distracted by a domestic crisis. NATO responds with decisive counterforce, destroying Russian tanks with fighter jets, but this doesn’t quell Russian resolve. Russia responds with even more tanks and by bombing NATO installations, killing several hundred troops. NATO cannot tolerate such aggression and to prevent further Russian advance launches low-yield tactical nuclear weapons with their dial-a-yield positions set to the lowest settings of only 300 tons TNT equivalent. The goal is to signal Russia that it has crossed a line and to deescalate the situation. NATO’s actions are based on fear that if the Russian aggression weren’t stopped the result would be all-out war in northern Europe.
This strategy is actually being discussed in the higher echelons of the Pentagon. The catchy concept is that use of a few low-yield nuclear weapons could show resolve, with the hoped-for outcome that the other party will back down from its aggressive behavior (this concept is known as escalate to deescalate). The assumption is that the nuclear attack would remain limited, that parties would go back to the negotiating table, and that saner voices would prevail. However, this assumes a chain of events where everything unfolds as expected. It neglects the incontrovertible fact that, as the Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz observed in the 19th century, “Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” Often coined fog of war, this describes the lack of clarity in wartime situations on which decisions must nevertheless be based. In the scenario described, sensors could have been damaged or lines of communication severed that would have reported the low-yield nature of the nuclear weapons. As a result, Russia might feel its homeland threatened and respond with an all-out attack using strategic nuclear weapons, resulting in millions of deaths…
“Even a minor regional nuclear conflict involving no more than 100 warheads … would have very detrimental effects on a number of very critical systems.”
Even a minor regional not-nuclear conflict involving a few hundred thousand Russian and Ukainian troops is right now having very detrimental effects on a number of very critical global systems. And a few hundred fat bureaucrats are busily extending the effects to many other very critical systems.
You have declared that “major population centres” will suffer starvation and public health challenges … and let us face it, vicious riots and wars over the last mouldy loaf of bread, or long-pork ham. I agree, without checking your link. After all, if your stomach depends on grain from Ukraina or Rossiya or Ohio, you are already, now, in trouble even before the big bombs fall.
You “prefer not to find out first-hand”. Agreed. Me, too. Almost everybody I know, or even heard of, will not survive. Many might not even survive the current war in Ukraina, plus bureaucrat extensions.
However, I know personally some people who have some … low … chances of surviving. Their prophets are even now talking about how they might do this.
I have heard about peoples living in remote, uncitified, areas who have good, depending on events, chances of continuing to scratch out modest, desperate, self-assessed-happy lives. They do not need prophets. They will simply continue to live as they do.
You can choose to live as you do now. Perhaps in a targetted city, or in some happy hinterland, or ignorant hinterland. Or reposition your life, somewhere between New York and Chiapas. Or perhaps continue to enjoy your doomed life, while it lasts, providing material and intellectual assistance to those who might survive.
BTW, the “preppers” hiding in the Rockies, and he oligarchs hiding in New Zealand, storing decades of food and weapons, are doomed targets, not of nuclear bombs from the other side of the world, but of local hungry mobs.
Part of the global increase in cancer is due to high atmospheric dust from nuclear testing descending after about half a century. The idea of a successful limited nuclear conflict is a myth and a Yankee fantasy, unless one thinks that lethal wind and rain across the world is sign of success.
1945 is not 2022
needless statement …. removed mod
@Sarkus
You forget the fact that Russia and Belarus are technically a unified state under the Union State agreement. Their militaries are unified.
A nuclear strike on Belarus would definitely be an act of aggression against Russia and will be responded in the appropriate manner. Don’t bask in delusions that the US and Western Europe would get away with a nuclear strike on Belarus.
Hi all:
The more times that I read about a somehow “restricted” nuclear launch/exchange ( whatever the right technical word it is), the most I find it unlikey to happen.
It will be either or not, but once it is in motion, how can freeze it?. There will be no restriction at all.
I truly believe that the ones in real command on the computers will reject, on everyside whomever are in conflict.
That is my wish.
We are not yet doomed.
Thanks for reading.
Only by deprogramming the view of western society as something wonderfull and a source for riches, is the only way to survive a sanctions regime. You also need a revolutionary guards corps to protect against coups.
America is proof
Evil still wins here.
Waiting For His Return ……………………………………………………………….very
Soon.
Although, Russia may have hoped to avoid an actual war, I still don’t think that they have miscalculated in their military operation whatsoever.
I have not second guessed the Russian military operation whatsoever. However, I do second guess the Russian oligarch’s influence on Russia in general. There is a lot of talk on this blog about the negative role of 5th and 6th columnists in Russia but very little talk of Russian oligarch’s negative role.
I agree. There was no real miscalculation, there was merely a risky opening plan A which was partially successful (about 50% so) and partially unsuccessful, but there were fully developed subsequent plans B, etc which are now entering the operation. No one miscalculated because all possibilities were calculated in advance and they are now being enacted.
With the benefit of hindsight couldn’t we say that it
would have been better if Russia had mobilized, called
up the reserves and gone in with at least 500,000, immediately reinforcing the light VDV when they got bogged down?
No
Because there is too much we don’t know to base such an opinion on.
Andrei
Saker is right that much is not known, some is known, but not enough to make general statements.
However, the president used to talk a lot about the street fights in his childhood and the lessons he learned from them. I remember from my childhood fights just one lesson – if you go into a fight and raise your fist, then you have to strike with all your strength without hesitation. Or you lose. Or do not go into the fight.
It is breath taking the extent to which those supposedly sympathetic to Russia keep on second guessing everything the Russian military is doing in Ukraine – there are always armchair generals, but this is ridiculous. Is it difficult to understand that Russia has been feeling its way in Ukraine, as Scott Ritter says, “shaping the battlefield” & assessing the scope for local collaboration. Some commenters keep on questioning what will Russia do with western Ukraine? Some claim to know in advance. People should hold back, wait & observe, & analyse what is happening & deconstruct the propaganda, rather than second guessing the Russian military every 2 seconds. It is not difficult to see why Russia wishes to do minimal damage in Ukraine, they do not want lasting resentment, & they do not want too heavy reconstruction costs either. Russia is fighting this war in a very unique fashion, practically unheard of & not seen until now. Later on people will be praising the genius of it. Ukraine, all of it, perhaps minus Galicia, will, in my view, be incorporated into Russia – & I believe, quite contrary to what Andrei Martyanov has long repeated (who I greatly respect & admire, I only disagree with him on this point) that Russia always intended to have Ukraine “on its balance” – that returning historic Russian ancestral territory is actually of great importance to the Russian patriotic leadership around Putin. So of course, the Russian military are going in soft, at least at first, even if this enhances the risk to the troops, this war can not be fought like any other. But, I would like to add, that Russia’s campaign in Syria was conducted with a great degree of care & consideration for the civilian population – Russia studiously avoided bombing large population centres, even when it meant grinding it out for the SAA & Hezbollah on the ground, Allepo is a prime example.
Srbalj, you have to understand that some of the “supposedly sympathetic to Russia” are actually Russians, and that gives them right to worry. Right or wrong,
I have a different take on the success of Phase 1; I don’t know if it is correct, but I think it is worth considering.
How could a risky Phase 1 have been avoided? The assumption is that Russia could have done “Phase 1” better, but how are you going to do that in the satellite surveillance / cell phone/internet era?
It took the US more that 3 months to logistically prepare Desert Storm and Hitler the better part of year to prepare Barbarossa. Here is what the Germans had to do to conceal their Ardennes Offensive that became the Battle of the Bulge in 1944:
Chapter 5 The Battle of the Bulge (pg 54)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep13807.11?seq=4
There is no way such a buildup of Russian forces would have gone unnoticed. The United States can’t move an armored division around the United States without people noticing it and posting videos to Twitter. What do people think would have happened if Putin have mobilized 80% of the Russia army and placed it along the Ukrainian frontier? The Ukrainians would have moved their forces into defensive positions and buried all of their fuel and ammunition and may have flown their air force out of the country. An if the buildup went on long enough NATO could have declared a no-fly zone over Ukraine that Putin would have to dare to violate. (And stuffed Ukraine with S300 and Patriot missile systems as non-offensive weapons.) As it is now, the Russians have a “de facto” no-fly zone over Ukraine that NATO has to fear to violate. Think about that.
So, in order to achieve surprise, the Russians had to proceed with a minimum number of forces minimally supplied. And I think this was the reason we didn’t see Russia’s best troops on the battlefield, lots of risk taking and higher casualties. And the Ukrainians were caught out, with troops in forward positions and supplies and air force out in the open.
The Phase II that we are witnessing now is the logistical / supply buildup that should have preceded Plan A, but didn’t. For an operation the size of this one, a tremendous amount of time is needed to prepare for it. So, for those criticizing Phase 1 consider the required buildup phase that has to happen before operations of such magnitude are undertaken. When was/is it supposed to happen?
True, Phase 1 didn’t result in a collapse of the Nuland Regime, but it would have been wishful thinking to think that might have happened given the constraints Russia had to deal with in order for the operation to be a surprise.
All IMHO.
Every Tiktok user was watching countless videos coming from inside Russia for months showing all kinds of troop transports and amassments long before the actual fighting. I very much doubt any of this came as a surprise to any western military intelligence.
@Klausimausi,
I would think the surprise was limited to the timing. I believe that the Ukrainians were set to attack the Donbass and did not think the Russians would react until the Ukrainians made their move. However, the Russians took action before the Ukrainians could begin their offensive operation against the Donbass.
* I very much doubt any of this came as a surprise to any western military intelligence.*
On a strategic level, no. So I agree with you in that sense. But on an operational level? Yeah, I think the US and Ukraine were caught flat footed – the bear blew first. Attacked rapidly and in a manner that nobody expected, and the vagary and silence around Russian objectives by invading with a relatively small force kept the US/Ukraine commands off balance and second guessing operational objectives, leading to paralyzation of major forces. I think the gambit of sticking the 1st Gaurds in Byelorussia on *exercises* was crucial to the success of the plan. So what the Russians achieved was operational surprise.
Exactly Perfection we may even say
each point Putin has made is like a sledgehammer on US/EU Heads
Putin “Can you Hear me now?”
its a thing of Beauty we witness just like….
A Light in the Darkness
Russia is shining brightly against the darkness!!
Bruce Li spoke of his insight in fighting, he called it ‘Jeet Kune Do’ ; the Way of the Intercepting Fist.
It is striking a blow that both blocks/deflects the opponent’s strike and strikes his opponents head.
That’s one of the most sensible insights I’ve seen on the subject, plus, I like the way you have identified ,the Nuland regime. Thanks.
It was just a thought. So, thanks! From an emotional point of view, if you read those couple of pages on the German preparations for the Ardennes Offensive / Battle of the Bulge… imagine being a Russian commander, getting orders at the last minute, and all of the other last minute stuff. There must have been a lot of people in disbelief, saying: “we are doing what?!” And Putin probably only briefed a few people around him or it would have leaked to the West. The stress just prior to O.Z. must have been unimaginable… but we will have to wait for the historians and memoir writers to find out what really happened. Again, all IMHO … as I really don’t know anything.
I agree with your outlook, and will add the following… I take it as a given that the Russian leadership has forecast the outbreak of hostilities as a likely end to this mess that started since Putin came to power and started the reversal of depredations against Russia by the west, but accelerated since the coup in Ukraine. As the Saker has said many times since then, Russia is getting ready , and IS ready for war. But no harm in sincerely trying for negotiated settlement in the interrum.
So, with that as preface, consider that Russia has prepared for this moment with the many exercises, snap exercises, massive exercises with China, and the movement of very large forces across the breadth of the federation, and add in all the economic preparations, and I believe that we can conclude that Russia was ready for anything. It reminds me of the old saying in sales that *you create your own luck.*. (No I’m not a salesman, though I did it for a few years to get by).
So, what do we have? Well the Russians say they have evidence that Ukraine was preparing to invade not only the Donbas, but Russia and crimea itself. I take it as a matter of faith that Russia had completely penetrated the Ukrainian govt. so I believe that. I believe that Russia formulated a plan based on that knowledge, and adapted follow up lans based on that understanding. So Russia pre-empts the Ukrainian move and throws them into disarray. But as you point out, they didn’t have the logistical or force mass laid up immediately for a sustained long campaign. They have that now, and have bought the time to accumulate that and study what kind of war this is going to be and form counters to the West’s reactions. I also believe that Russia is bating the west here, drawing them in to ukraine and the war, in subservience to their ultimate goal of throwing nato back. As Ryabkov said, *move, or we will move you.* Russia is inside NATOs OODA loop, and is driving the events, even though it doesn’t look that way.
And another one Hits the nail on the Head wow just wow maybe we find in this generation
Men that makes the world a little more bareable I Know
I stand with Putin and I’m born an raised in america to
Russia looks deadly serious and isn’t wasting any time playing games with criminals
Well, one thing is true.
West is literally burning-through their conventional weaposts stockpiles. Mid term, this only means more business and actually budgetary savigs – lots of those weapons will no longer beed to be safely disposed.
However, short-to-mid term this allows Russia to effectively “defang” NATO in Europe without a direct war with them.
Take Germany, they are about to send to Ukraine their Leo I reserves kit. Doing that, Germany will have NO RESERVE KIT to speak of.
Take Slovakia, they just sent THE ONLY higher-level air defence system NATO had present in Central Europe to be “burned up” in Ukraine. There is no deal even on the horizon to replace this capability (!).
Take CZ, they just sent a couple platoons of tanks and IFVs from their army reserves. Again, these will not be replenished in at least 5 years. Making any notion of an extensive (conventional) war by the Czechs physically untenable for a decade or more.
The “narrative” in the West today is “it is better (our weapons) fight the Russians in Ukraine than home”. The funny part is that, militarily, this is a dream come true for Russia. Being allowed to grind-down sub-par enemy 2nd echelon forces/weapons by a direct conflict with your prime or close-to-prime units is a prime example of defeat-in-detail. If effectively allows Russia to negate the West’s conventional numerical superiority for relatively cheap and have the effect in place for a decade or so.
This creates a strange dynamic where the more (heavy) weapons NATO provides to Ukraine, the better for Russia strategically. This can explain the lack of mass-strikes on weapons shipments to Ukraine thus far. The last thing the Russians would want is to convince NATO that shipping kit to the Ukrainians is a bad idea (militarily). Do not interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Hmm.
I believe that it was always the intent to go in light. The Russians knew what was out there. They had to prepare the battle field. You don’t prepare the battle field by first engaging in a battle. Battle field has been prepared as was the intent of Phase 1. Phase 2 is the battle phase/stage. How many individual battles is to be determined. Right now it seems that the Russians have tried to mold it into just one big one (Donbass). As they say, victory lies in winning the war, not in winning a battle (though the later certainly helps in winning the war).
Oh, and in no way is this NOT a war. The “kind” of war can be disputed, but that it’s a war is not in doubt.
… if the USA and Russia openly and directly clash militarily, I will immediately “freeze” the blog
Understood. You will have done all you could in keeping lines of communication open.
But in that event, both Americans and the world need internet channels which will not be – and can not be cut off. Those back-up channels need to be in place long before they might be needed. I hope they will not be, but of course “hope” is not a plan. For Americans, this should be easier than during the Cold War, when Commies did sort of take orders from Moscow and there was some degree of secret influence. Now, Russia is capitalist and religious, and obviously does not have any agenda to dominate other parts of the world. So it should be exceedingly hard for the ruling elites in the US to claim that Cold War 2.0 is in any way a defense of America. Cold War 2.0 is an attempt by the banksters to dominate the US people, as well as the rest of the world. Many Americans woken up to that reality in recent years, and many more will Only people in the MIC and abject fools will drink the Kool-Aid.
Another task that needs dealt with now, while we still can, is to open and maintain commercial channels with Russia. In American, this commerce should be protected by the First Amendment. So books can be sent in both direction, so speakers can not be excluded on BS visa exclusions, etc. Belarus remains open, and I see no reason why people there could not act as middlemen.
For now, Belarus is still open, and it would be good if people in Belaru
“So it should be exceedingly hard for the ruling elites in the US to claim that Cold War 2.0 is in any way a defense of America.”
I am afraid it the situation is the exact opposite. Media Psyop is very successful in the west. Also Russia being successfully forced to make the first step helped greatly.
I live in the US – on neither coast, and my friends are all up and down the income scale. Mostly of course, they are “liberal” in that uniquely American sense. Many of my friends are well-connected with conservative non-MIC people. We do know a few people who believe the media Kool-AId, but none of us knows even one person who really cares to be against Russia. Keep in mind that the first effect of propaganda is to silence dissenting voices. So far in the US where I live, that has only happened in those few instances where people fear that speaking out might cost them their jobs.
This is nonsense. 99% of stupid liberal Americans support this war and are flying Ukrainian flags like a bunch of dopes. I’m an American born and raised and at 42 years old I’m disgusted by my country. I’m conservative and believe in the early founding principles that made freedom reign throughout the world in the early part of America’s childhood. America has now become exactly what Joe Biden and Trump are. Old rich men who have sacrificed nothing for this country and only enriched themselves at the expense of the American way of life and progress. Liberals have single handedly destroyed any semblance of what was left of the USA. As much as I like Scott Ritter his former gung ho mentality living in the 80’s was the epitome of brainwashing and propaganda by government. He should be ashamed of what his attitude was back then. Cavalier arrogance at its finest. I am slavic and grew up with an immigrant father who spoke 5 languages including Russian. My grandfather on my mother’s side was a proud WWII navy pilot. The conversations I heard as a kid between my father and his father in law will never leave me. I have a very unique perspective as an American boy growing up with a strong slavic European influence. I used to say I cant stand my government but I love my people. No more. My fellow gluttonous, arrogant, spoiled, materialistic fellow Americans disgust me now as much as my government.
As a fellow U.S. citizen of the same age as well as a slavic background, I completely agree with what you just wrote. Thank you.
Amen!
Tell me about this ‘first step’ Russia made because I missed it.
Yes the effort on Psyop is unprecedented, yes the media are fully controlled; but the results on the average population are quiet poor, the return on investment of the psyops is very bad.
It seems it works better on big cities (which are were the ‘woke’ segment is concentrated btw).
I live in a medium sized city, and for example I only saw two (2) Ukrainian flags on pub display so far. Only one in a private civilian house (that is, only on that could be attributed to Psyop). The other one is in a municipal sports hall where a refugee center has been set up. As virtue signaling from local political party, because it seems I Ukrainian at all has ever come here yet.
The overwhelming majority of inhabitants in the middle did city I live in the hearth of NATO/EU is in a mood of complete not caring about it all. And a sizeable portion is growing very disgusted about the blatant media propaganda.
I used to see better psyops. But that was a time when the west still had a credible veneer of being ‘democratic’, ‘free’ and the like.
There won’t be much of a clash or it won’t last too long til the nukes go off. The Russians said two things that should have gotten DC’s attention from the start of hostilities. They said that WWIII would be nuclear, and that those who were behind the instigating of hostilities would be “decapitated”.
Hello Saker and thank you for all the info and for all your work in these tense times in the World.
For me there is even more genius in the way with which the command of Russia conducted the war “psyops” than in the war on the ground.
Because Russia is coming back from afar.
Russia was able to avoid confrontation (not only military) for as long as it took to be ready.
She was able to rally nations and countries that were not really favorable to her.
She was able to defeat the most dangerous enemies inside (remember the ’90s).
Of course, this is a war that goes beyond the framework of Ukraine, that there are and there will be even more victims, but I think those who run Russia know what they are doing and know where they are going.
I admire them, because I’ve been watching how human intelligence is dying on Earth for a long time.
Good continuation!
Agree ! The whole world was watching Russia’s coming out Move
and He did not dissappoint !!
in the first 24 hours Russia drops a complete net across Ukraine taking total immediate
control of the battlefied at the same time totally throwing off the Enemy by suprise creating confusion an chaos so in fact World control Russia has shocked the world in as if….
swatting a fly off its ass He sees Ukraine as a problem His vision is on the Greater
World War where the real….batttle lies !!!
Oui, c’est exactement ce que je pense aussi.
Two things, Saker.
Thank you to ‘Brandon’, not Biden. Biden has ceased to exist. But Brandon lives!
And Iran looks good but Iran is not a threat to the US or the NATO alliance.
Iran is only a perceived threat to Israel.
If Russia and China were not considered threats, maybe the US would stir up a threat from Iran.
But Iran escapes full dominance hybrid war because she is on the sidelines of the geopolitical global contest.
She matters big time in the ME and South Asia, but she is not a global power yet.
There is nothing applicable for Russia or China. They must play their core strengths against the unique threats shaped against them.
Iran now has the tactic nuclear cover from Russia. And vital Intel from Russia.
So I see Iran as exemplary, but the suit doesn’t fit Russia or China.
I wonder what you think about the missile bases in Romania and Poland which we are told, when equipped with nuclear missiles, can hit the RF in five minutes.
Both Escobar and Ritter have mentioned these in recent articles.
Is the west contemplating a decapitation strike on Russia or are these bases not anywhere near ready enough for that? Should Russia take them out in any case?
Well first one must define what “decapitation strike” means. Typically in military parlance it means “to destroy the leadership” of the country. In any wartime scenario the leadership will not be in Moscow but in the secret nuclear-proof bunkers (Russia’s Mt. Cheyenne equivalent) that are east of the Urals. As such:
1. no “decapitation strike” would be possible from these short/medium range missiles
2. the only type of strike possible would be a mass civilian holocaust on moscow which would be a strange and improbable option
Keep in mind many reports already have stated that Russian top military leadership have already evacuated to the secret bunkers in the Urals, which is why Shoigu is so seldom seen etc. There were many flight trackers showing Russian military plans going en masse to those locations in the onset of the SMO.
Thanks. Just wonder why top military would head to the secret bunkers unless they thought a nuclear strike was possible.
Well of course a “full exchange” would be possible which is one where both countries launch ALL missiles on every target which includes all population centers to basically create an extinction event and complete human holocaust of the enemy. That’s also the reason they go to the bunkers. This is still a vague possibility as the U.S. has obviously flirted with the idea of mass first strike before, and I don’t mean ‘decapitation first strike’ on leadership only, I’m talking about TOTAL first strike, i.e. the eradication of the entire civilization of the Russian people. This has been in official U.S. plans since the 50’s or 60’s.
He also mentioned the possibility of similar missile bases going into Sweden and Finland – presently under discussion as I understand it.
He wasn’t talking about a “full exchange” but rather a quick pre-emptive nuclear strike designed I imagine to provoke a collapse of Russia and surrender.
Who knows how Russia would respond to this of course but these bases are being set up for a purpose and 5 minutes does not give much time for anti-missile defense to get organised.
What do you think their purpose is?
Last point – what do you think Russia should do about these bases? Thanks. Always enjoy hearing your take on things.
Any such strike would be regarded by Russia as an existential threat, and there would be an “appropriate response”.
Even if such a strike was completely successful in eradicating the entirety of the Russian High Command, they still have their (upgraded and completely functional) Perimetr system, which will have been automatically enabled after VVP placed their missile forces on high alert.
On this occasion, the US’s favourite battle plan of “bomb them a little (this time with nuclear weapons), and see what happens” will be a very bad strategy indeed.
You folks miss the point.
By now, you CANNOT “decapitate” Russia and achieve anything of (military) value by doing that. We could discuss if you could a year ago. But today that option is not even on the horizon.
The UKUS, no other, has by now single-handedly conviced the ENTIRE of Russia that this is an existential war. Down to the last cleaning lady.
With such an understanding, the ONLY effect of a /successful/ decapitation strike will result into Russian “Plan C” going into full effect resulting in a full-force counterattack. You really, really, do not want to do that – as an standalone action. It can make sense only as the first (few minutes first) part of a full-on “first strike” plan.
Iran is a huge threat! It could close down Hormuz tomorrow, cutting of the West’s umbilical cord. It could then hit every US Base in the region within 10-15 minutes, We know those US Missile Defence Systems are about as useful as a chocolate fireguard as proven by Houthi successes in Saudi (multiply that by 2000 ).
If these psychopaths could take Iran out they would, just for its resources alone. Syria was supposed to be the 1st step in that plan; disenabling the Shia Crescent. The Shia are big in numbers in Qatar, Saudi, Pakistan, India, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. who like the Russians will fight to the death.
OK so, if powerful Iran closes Hormuz and Russia turns off the EU’s supply of energy, the only fight we’re having here is Europe keeping the lights on.
The West has outlived its usefulness. America & Europe have lived nicely for centuries on the backs of the Developing World. Without their illegal wars, resource and land theft which have provided life-support, these parasites would be near extinct, just a bunch of leper colonies.
I’m not having a pop Mr L , our goal is the same; that Russia’s security concerns are addressed to its satisfaction. Sweet Jesus is that too much to ask? A nuclear Superpower wants to be left alone.
US-NATO use only proxies to fight their wars these days, like they’re doing now in Ukraine and the proof lies in the outcomes of those, defeats against inferior combatants. They are decent at hit-and-run guerrilla warfare and are able to maintain there Plan B, Chaos objective, however, those filthy bastards could never hold anything down that had a pulse and a will.
IMO, the minority unfortunately, if America had all the bases covered as Russia has, millions of Russians would be dying, and so, Russia should conduct Operation ‘Shock & Awe’ and blast the hell out of everything US-NATO in the region, warning that should one missile land in Russia western Europe is toast.
These are substantial reasons why Iran was not attacked directly any time since the end of the Imposed War. Iran can do so much damage to the Empire that any “nuclear umbrella” is not needed. And, I don’t know, an umbrella of WMD’s might not be welcome in Tehran. Iran’s leaders are very religious and AFAIK, they could even be thinking through what would happen in the unlikely event that Iran were destroyed with nuclear weapons. They may have concluded that the world or God would destroy the nuclear aggressor. Nuking a nation that does not have nukes became the most evil crime possible, in the years since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Groups which are widely self-perceived as extremely evil simply do not endure.
Here Here !!!!!!
beautifully said
WTF
well said WTFUD.
Iranians have layered defenses few possess, providing exceptional resiliency and a great fear factor in their enemies. You and Cosimo nail their foremost weapon – a strong spirituality and culture of sacrifice. Additionally their ancient civilization and pride as a former Hegemon provides perspective and resources few others possess; a true treasure store. Ancient Persia was far more consequential and lasting on mankind. The only thing the West exceeds is in ability to war and to kill. Iranians are very intelligent, organized, with exceptional can-do spirit. Their mountainous terrain surrounded by deserts and seas gives them a natural fortress too.
I would slightly amend your last line to “should one missile land in Russia US Command & Control centers in N. America are toast.” I agree with the Saker, who says above, “My personal conclusion is that the West will only stop doubling down if the US homeland itself is threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities.”
iow, Europe lacks agency. It is merely the current proxy. An argument could be made to include City of London and Geneva with the US.
—-
Cosimo,
“Groups which are widely self-perceived as extremely evil simply do not endure”
This is technically and superficially true, for the Host of this ancient parasite. But the spiritual sickness persists and jumps to a new one. Romans wiped Carthage off the face of the earth, removing 99% of their memory and traces, but soon acquired the disease themselves!
It will be with us as long as we exist on Earth.. So how can we drive it deep into the underground for a while? I think the Russians are onto something with the denazification part. I read Nazism as code for occult satanism and deviancy. Nazism is the current marshalling lens of the underlying ancient evil ideology. Attacking the ideology frontally both kills the current Host and helps delay transplantation to the next Host.
Sorry to say but your historical knowledge on Carthage and Rome are very outdated and nowhere near reality.
Totally agreed. At this stage Iran closing tbe Hormuz strait would send oil to $300++. Europe’s economy goes to exactly zero inside of a month bringing with it the total annihilation of their overleveraged banks and governments.. It would take the mobilization of at a minimum 500,000+ US troops over several months just to even think about attempting to reopen Hormuz and then 10s of thousands of casualties with no great odds of success. Think Lebanon 2006 except 100 times bigger. Not to mention that Russia would most likely be happy to provide Iran the very best weapons it can muster.
Speaking of Lebanon… What of it’s neighbor- Israel? How would Israel line up in all this? I’m pretty certain that it’s total suicide to try and take out Iran. Would Israel just look to isolate (as as much as it can) from being in the fray?
And what about Turkey? (doubtful they’d be aiming at Russia)
India?
Pakistan?
Seems there’s a lot of complexity lurking. Could end up like a gang shooting spree in which folks aren’t sure who they are shooting, they’re just shooting because that’s what needs to happen.
One nuke goes off and I’m thinking that other countries (not in initial conflagration) could start popping off nukes. There would almost be no country in the northern hemisphere that would be safe from a nuke hitting it: southern hemisphere starts to look more attractive… (and then there’s Australia)
in any full on nuclear exchange there will be several facilities in the land of OZ whose life span would be measured in hours as they are integral to the current hegemons critical comms systems with its submarine forces. Pine Gap and Northwest Cape head the list.
The Yanks engineered a coup to depose Labor PM Geoff Whitlam over his proposal to end the Pine Gap lease arrangement.
Iran is indeed a threat to the US.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2022/apr/08/after-russia-iran-to-sell-oil-in-its-local-currencyinstead-of-us-dollars-2439351.amp — “After Russia, Iran to sell oil in its local currency instead of US dollars”
This news went largely under the radar in the West.
Iran selling oil for Rials, or any other currency except the dollar, will in all likelihood be the death blow to the USD.
Will the US engage Iran militarily to stop this from taking place? We shall see soon enough.
If Cuba, Iran, Venezuela survived and adapted why not Russia? The partnership and learning with China, Iran and India with Russia’s enormous historical potentiality and resilience inclines us to think positively. And yes the Russian People is the major pillar of resistance against external and internal threats and counter-propaganda.
Thanks Andrei!
Just heard this on the RWA podcast and it makes sense given your article above:
“The peasant will not cross himself before it begins to thunder.”
Source: https://proverbicals.com/russian-proverbs
Russian leaders are human, and humans want simple solutions to hard problems. So the rather naïve attempts to make peace and win on the cheap make sense.
My read is that the war is becoming more and more real to the Russian population and leadership moving into the next phase. Time will tell.
Russia will formally declare war on Ukraine soon and begin mobilization and war economy.
Firstly, this could be possible if Ukraine continues to strike Russian territory. So far they have not caused any FATALITIES but they have caused “casualties” in serious injuries. If Ukraine continues cross border strikes and begins killing Russian citizens, particularly in a big way, then I very much could see that possibility happening as the political and civic consensus / outrage would certainly be there.
The only big question is: would this action play into U.S. / NATO’s hands or not? There are some clear lines of thought that this is exactly what U.S. / NATO want which is why they’re pushing Ukraine to do these cross-border strikes to begin with.
and you base that on what?
please provide arguments, not slogans!
It is now obvious to see that Russia is already in an existential war. Objectively following the events, especially on telegram (which happens to be the less censored source of intel right now) and digesting both Russian and Ukrainian propaganda I can hardly imagine Russia achieving any of its stated goals if things continue like they did so far. Quite the contrary, objectively, as of now everything got worse. We went from Donbass getting shelled to Russian territorry getting shelled from northern Ukraine. The west is openly arming Ukraine on a scale not seen before. Also, NATO got handed the best justificaction for its existence it could wish for and its propaganda operations are in full force.
Both sides suffer very heavy casualities, but Ukraine does not have to win this war, they only need to hold out and survive. They will continue to get armed and prepped up as a spearhead against Russia as long as they exist as anything close to its current form. Russia on the contrary needs a substancial offensive success to ensure its own survival.
Russia was forced to commit and now there is no way back, simple as.
Russian state media is already prepping the people for what seems to be inevitable.
@Klausimausi,
You wrote: “I can hardly imagine Russia achieving any of its stated goals if things continue like they did so far.”
I’m not privy to “Russian and Ukrainian propaganda,” but judging on what I’ve read, your statement is odd.
Phase 1 of the world has gone well, IMO. The cauldron is set for the large Ukrainian military force in the Donbass, Mariupol has been captured, Russia has complete control of the skies, Russia has established a land bridge to Crimea (and restored water to it), and it has kept much of Ukraine’s military bottled up in Kiev. In addition, it has used its stand-off and hypersonic missiles to land devastating blows to the mercenaries and NATO trainers in the West side of Ukraine.
Phase 2 is just beginning. Once the Ukrainian force in the Donbass is brought to heel (only a matter of time), Russia can then concentrate on penetrating the Western side of the country and Odessa (Phase 3). That leaves the final phase, Phase 4, the siege of Kiev and the surrender of its political government. End of war.
What is it that I’m missing?
Nuthing at all Kan cept maybe motive for why the west is so determined to punish Russia
IMO the west started the regime change/civil war in Ukraine in 14 to keep Russia occupied on its own border and unwilling to take on Syria defense to …so plan fails
whole world knows “Assad Must Go” for 10 years the west chanted but were Stopped by Russia
so now mad and using Ukraine to just Punish Russia for its defeat in Syria on thw worlds stage
the Empire has been publically humilated on the Worlds Stage now Twice!!!
Nothing that I can see except that the Donbas-cauldron need only be reduced to secondary operational-strategical importance once contained with sufficient continued reduction to keep them on ever-weakening defensive, like Kharkov and Kiev, and the reduction of Lvov to the point that Rosgvardia holds the border, backed by adequate intel and force.
Also, denazification, better “debanderization,” simpler than people think, just tedious:
(1) The Russians already have their own lists and evidences needed to send many to trial for Banderite violence;
(2) Local investigation will reveal many more;
(3) A special police-unit under proper monitoring and staffed by those who have (a) passed Banderite-investigation and (b) themselves or their families suffered from Banderite violence should scour the remaining, mostly minor Banderites, and afterward monitor reemergence of such propaganda and groups; and
(4) The Constitution shall ordain that any sexist, racist, ethnicist, nationalist, religious or other political violence shall be indicted and prosecuted as such, but upon conviction be punished as insurrection, by death and total confiscation of assets in the most extreme cases, especially of major financiers.
You’re missing that Mickey-maus is a subtle disinformer.
“You’re missing that Mickey-maus is a subtle disinformer.”
Aware of the works of Mr. Matelaart including his How to read Mickey Mouse published in Chile in 1972 ?
Not named after Mickey Mouse but after Klaus Schwab, who stated in 2017 that Vladimir was a young global leader of the WEF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daE0jthD5F8
“Klaus Schwab talks about penetrating the cabinets of the young global leaders governments. As printed on page 188 of his book: “Build Back Better”.”
Please return back to the topic of the article. This thread is better suited for the MFC, mod/strong>
“Not named after Mickey Mouse but after Klaus Schwab”
““Klaus Schwab talks about penetrating the cabinets of the young global leaders governments. As printed on page 188 of his book: “Build Back Better”.
You missed the connotations which is understandable given that most of the participants were disappeared after the coup and the during the subsequent Condor years, whilst illustrating the conflation of an answer/the answer thereby obfuscating context emulating practices encouraged by the opponents of obfuscating context.
The connotations include but are not limited to why was How to read Mickey Mouse written at the request of the Chilean Socialist party leading the government at that time to whom like Mr. Debray, Mr. Matelaart and others, some of whom were not assigned attribution, had a “floating role” as consultants to the government.
In this case in analysing MIR’s perceptions, which in conjuction with those of LMS Tupomaros in Uruguay following their efforts in regard to Mr. Mitrione, aided in part by the complicity of others who deemed Mr. Mitrione to pose an “uncomfortable” disadvantage, facilitated the creation of the publicised creation of the Che Guevara: Junta de Coordinacion Revolucionaria magazine in 3 issues in Spanish, English and some other languages, and the organisation Junta Coordinadora Revolutionaria (JCR), which Mr. Castro when offered participation refused for and on behalf of the Republic of Cuba which followed their own strategies, including but not limited to aiding the deconstruction of the Portuguese Empire in Africa.
This organisation (JCR) catalysed/facilitated the Condor Years and subsequent efforts of “The United States of America’s” efforts in Latin America to today, but in lesser part throughout the world, encouraged the acceptance of the Petro dollar in a pour encourager les autres (to encourage the others) sense , and the continuing longevity of Mr. Castro and the Republic of Chile.
“”“Klaus Schwab talks about penetrating the cabinets of the young global leaders governments”
Mr Schwab is emulating Mr Brzezinsky in attempting to portray the ideas of others to be his own, since the implementing of these ideas has been regular practice of “The United States of America”since at least 1861.
Georgia to get involved and the carrier group near Japan to launch airstrikes to make this a 3 front war. Sakhalin is just north of Japan, I sincerely hope VVP has considered these escalations
“What is it that I’m missing?”
The heavy losses during Phase 1.
But we will see how the second phase will play out. I think Russia will be able to adjust and fare better.
Andrei,
There’s no ban on letters Z & V in Greece.
It cannot be even if our current government would like to, as these are basic letters in our language and we would not be able to speak basic words…
So how will the other Europeans live with this ban?
Andrei
I made a meme with a big “Z” and the words “Voivode Volodya Victorious” and now have 30 days in FB jail;)
If you commit wrong-think I think there´ll be escalating reprisals in this cluster F, Slovakia for sure criminalized the letter “Z” and “V” in this context.
Today in FB jail, tomorrow in a real jail.
That’s exactly where the main issue is with the current situation in the world.
How do you see NATO getting involved?
Russians have been remarkably tolerant of the US/EU escalation. They seem
hesitant at intercepting and destroying weapons coming in. Is it that they don’t
care (ie, those weapons won’t make any difference) or is there something else?
You’re quoting Elijah Magnier’s poorly worded/understood tweet. No one is ‘hesitant about intercepting’ shipments. Elijah Magnier simply doesn’t appear to understand how the shipping works (which is strange). Russia’s statement was that any shipment on Ukrainian territory would be targeted. This is already being done, and has been done for a long time. Nothing controversial or eye opening here. Some pundits for some reason misunderstood the statement to mean Russia will target Nato shipments OUTSIDE of Ukraine. That is absolutely not what Russia meant, and any such action by either side would constitute immediate WW3.
Russia has destroyed many shipments literally 5km from the Polish border and has even launched a strike so massive on the Polish border that Biden could see it from his speech in Reznow base.
No one is being tolerant of any shipments it’s simply that certain pundits for some reason lack an understanding of how Ukraine is receiving its arms shipments. The method is: the shipments come into Poland. Ukrainian troops drive into Poland, pick them up, then drive back into Ukraine in civilian vehicles and ambulances. I really don’t see what’s so hard to understand about that. Russia strikes them in Ukrainian territory, it does not strike them in Polish territory for obvious reasons.
Best to let the rats grab the bait then bring it home…..better to exterminate the entire nest rather squash a few on the side of the road. There are no shortage of Russian UVA vids where the drone, damn those guys are patient, let the equipment fire, then they follow it back to base …boom.
Cheers M
Wouldnt it be convienient for some if the whole Russian military was in one relatively small place, then war is declared and its wiped out in just a few nuclear stikes.
That is why Russia cannot commit fully.
Spot on.
I sometimes wonder what this world would be like if those rootless cosmopolitans would stop lighting fires. There are so many more important things to sort out, but here we are killing each other so they can get their shekels.
В З О
Ironic that Russias worldwide ‘denazification’ will ensure this will continue further. Well played.
“most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”.”
I don’t think this is true at all. At least where I live (Italy).
Most of my contacts in Europe are now convinced that Russia is losing.
Not everybody. But many.
Even SINCERELY pro-Russian friends.
But, hey, I always considered southern Europeans as much more sophisticated than northern Europeans.
So maybe things are better in Italy than they are in, say, Switzerland.
Best
Does it really matter if they think the Russians are losing… Only the facts on the ground matter. Media is bullshit and changes nothing if the leaders keep their resolve. It seems most of the propaganda is focused on the west. Are they trying to convince westerners that they need to go to war with Russia? Get luck with that. They are hiding the economic meltdown.
“Does it really matter if they think the Russians are losing…”
Somewhat. It would influence willingness to compromise in negotiation. Clearly there is none, currently.
Swiss people are really very stupid, especially the young who don’t remember Iraq 2003, let alone Vietnam. But also the politicians, one of whom has been has been severely criticized and isolated by his own party for being a Putin-Versteher, i. e. who understands Russia. There is no violence though. And top business leaders have cautiously voiced deep concerns where our foreign policy is taking us.
If in Italy you stroll through a working class neighbourhood, you may see many small statues of the Virgin Mary. The local union and the parish church traditionally play an important role in everyday life. In Genoa the port workers’ syndicate has a monopoly on loading and unloading ships. There is something similar in Venice. There is a healthy regard for traditional values.
What is really appalling I learnt just today: Our local television station in Switzerland asked some people why we have a holiday on Easter. Some thought it had something to do with easter eggs. Others were laughing and goofing around. They had no idea that Jesus died on the cross for our sins. All their values are derived from silly television ads.
Well down here in the South Pacific it’s a mixed bag. I for one have the Z in white on the rear of my tradie trailer and I have the Z over my heart on my work jacket. No one has physically had a go at me but I sure have had some good conversations.
Can I just say that although I treasure everyone’s “hindsight” on these 50 days my best advice to my conversation adversaries that do not like my Z is to point them to the Patrick Lancaster and Russian reporters on bitchute. Certainly gives them food for thought.
My take on the whole situation is follow the money. Once that stops following so do the games. No matter what war is held and no matter where it is fought it is always the working class areas that get bombed first. Maybe the peace talks would take on a whole new seriousness if some financial centre in the middle of Kiev was taken out.
Anyway there are others who do not drink all of the western cool aid that live in the South Pacific.
Personally I would prefer if global NWO Financial Centers were taken out. Kiev is a small player on the Money Changers Stage.
Ironic that is was Jesus challenging the Temple money changers that led to his execution that we pay tribute to today and now, it is with Russia leading challenging the money changers that has us where we are. Time for the Golden Calf to be dead and buried once and for all so we as a species can rise to a better existence with Spirit as one with the Creator.
Time to go back to reading some inspirational Russian literature (The Ringing Ceders).
…and by the way, tonight I’m going out wearing a cap with a little Russian flag on the left, and a “Z!” symbol on the right.
I’m doing it, I don’t give a s**t.
Please don’t do that and be very careful.
Please have been agressed and beat up for less already
Stay safe!
Andrei
I understand – I noticed it long time ago .. Andrei you as only -green card holder in the USA…you got to be careful what to say regard internal politics in the USA( you are good in it)…I do not think forces of darkness in the USA own “nuclear football” …..Cheer !!!!!
«…and by the way, tonight I’m going out wearing a cap with a little Russian flag on the left, and a “Z!” symbol on the right.
I’m doing it, I don’t give a s**t.»
I have put up the flags of the Donbas republics on my web site, rather than those of Ukraine or the Russian Federation. They are the main victims of the situation, and have been for 8 years. There is also the orange-black St. Michael’s ribbon, also a symbol of the Donbas (also banned in several countries).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribbon_of_Saint_George
“On 16 May 2017, the ribbon was officially banned in the country, with those who produce or promote the symbol subject to fines or temporary arrest. According to Speaker Andriy Parubiy (People’s Front), the symbol had become a symbol of “Russia’s war and occupation of Ukraine. […] The government of Latvia proposed the ban on the use of any Ribbons of Saint George by law in May 2014; earlier, Latvia imposed a ban on the use of all Soviet symbols at public events.”
Such are the wonders of “liberal democracy”.
A year or two ago I said to my Polish neighbours, who were surprised at my criticism of America: “America is the problem, not the solution”. The next time I see them, I will say: “We will not talk about politics. You know my position.”
Thank you Andrei. I’m safe at home now. No problems at all.
3 people curiously questioned me about the Russian flag I was wearing, asked me if I was pro-Putin. I explained them politely why I am. 2 of them went like “Yeah, they don’t tell us the truth” (meaning MSM), the 3rd one was pro-EU but he didn’t believe me when I told him that US was behind the 2014 coup, so I suggested him just to inform a little bit.
All the other people didn’t care. Absolutely nobody knew what the Z mean.
The situation here is: lot of ignorance, but at the same time noone believes MSM.
Oh, and we have American military base in my town. We also voted not to have it (they built it anyway). Everybody here knows NATO is a problem for us.
And I’ve talked to American soldiers, too (they’re not to fear because they know that if they touch Italian civilians their career is ruined). But they’re good guys, from Oklahoma, West Virginia, Colorado, California… nobody was surprised at all about my Russian stance, a couple of them agreed with me 100%. None of them wants to go to war against Russia.
In Italy no pro-Russian guy has to fear anything right now, unless he’s a journalist or TV anchorman or similar… in that case he better sets up his career in some alternative media.
So far I didn’t see here those kind of hysterical reactions like in Britain or Germany.
Maybe I’m wrong, but this is my experience up to now.
Nor here in Siam.. apart from a few hysterical Limeys and Yanks.
The empire is dying but it is lead by cowards who will not sacrifice anything and that means no war. They will back down the second Russia starts targeting them, and deny doing so. But they will happily sacrifice as many Ukrainians as is needed.
The reality is that the Ukrainians must and will eventually turn against the gov and purge out the Nazis and EU/US collaborators themselves but this will take time. Cut off from Gas and unable to plant and use the black sea docks, Ukrainians will feel enormous economic pain. Reality that their military has been decimated, used and abandoned by NATO will also sink in
But all this will take a little time.
The Russian side has one hard-fought feather in its cap; that being Mariupol. That is reality, no matter the noise coming from the West. What I would like to see, given that victory, is a large-scale humanitarian mission in Mariupol. The city is safe enough for that to commence and it’s time. It’s also the right thing to do.
I’ll reserve any comments about the military ops lest my ignorance show, but I do pray for all involved in the upcoming battle in the East.
@Woogs
You are not quite correct on feathers. Kherson and Meritopol fell a month ago. Lugansk has pushed to its northern oblast border. They control 95% of the oblast. Vital real estate to keep the cauldron around Donbass.
Nearly all Ukie Air Defense has been knocked out. They have a few BUKS left. Their air defense is Stingers and an assortment of MANPADS. Laughable for a nation with an armed force of 600,000 and such a land mass.
They have no navy any longer.
The biggest feather is how few citizens of Ukraine, regardless of their location or loyalties, have been collateral damage caused by the Russian side. Most have been killed and wounded by the Ukies.
As for humanitarian aid, check Kadyrov’s Telegram site. His mother runs the Chechen national charity and she has been pumping hundred of thousands, if not millions of dollars into Donbass and Mariupol in particular. Medicines, food, water, loaves of bread by the convoy truck loads have been going into the city and distributed by Chechens. She has sent money to hospitals to assist them in their needs.
Plenty of videos of DPR distributing food and medicine in and around Mariupol.
It is getting organized, but the shooting has barely ended. They have to clear every room, every attic, every basement in most every building. And there are thousands of dead to bury. And probably thousands to dig up and rebury properly. Many just buried under duress in courtyards, front yards and gardens.
Kadyrov has indicated he wishes to take the job of overseeing the reconstruction and renewal of Mariupol. After all, he has done it before with Grozny. I’m certain the people of the city would welcome such a resurrection directed by him and his fellow Chechens.
Thanks for all that. Yes, I know that, in Mariupol, even now there is isolated shooting beyond the Azovstal plant.
I don’t have Telegram and am basing my comment about humanitarian aid on the videos I’ve seen from Patrick Lancaster. All I’ve seen from them is private individuals bringing in aid in cars, not even truckloads (bless them for that). Maybe that’s too narrow a view, I dunno, but he’s been there posting a new vid just about every day.
I know Mariupol is not the only “feather in the cap”, but it is the one that has garnered the most attention and probably is where the most need is at in a singular area and is now largely accessible for aid to come in.
The Saker mentioned that the border delay problem has returned and called it sabotage.
It surely is sabotage orchestrated by the Sakadean fifth column Putin refuses to deport and to neutralize in Russia. And of course the Russian support for the western Ukrainan effor who remain and occupy positions of authority that frustrates Russian interests.
I may be wrong but that appears to be the case from this distant vantage and it truly sticks in my craw
A mine? So much spin and countrer-spin on almost every issue of this conflict. Seems to me that the most likely thing is the Moskova was hit by Ukrainian forces WITH the assistance of the US, at a minimum providing surveillance and targeting info, perhaps more. It is a symbolic loss much more than an operational one.
The question is how will Russian tactics and strategy change?
My fear is that with the West supplying weapons, likely supplying military advisors (if not more direct involvement), providing intelligence… Russia will be forced sooner or later to confront US/NATO directly. I understand the reasons for avoiding this as much as possible but it is increasingly seeming inevitable.
Time for Russia to take the gloves off within Ukraine and on the economic counter-actions. Hopefully the direct conflict can still be avoided.
neutral American naval experts (who served for a long time as radar operators on US carriers/destroyers) have reported that any radar, including the ones on U.S. ships, has huge problems in stormy/wavy conditions dealing with low sea-skimming missiles. The reason is the waves which can be 20-40feet not only add massive “signal clutter” to the radars which confuse them but also act reflectively, like mirror / radar dishes which reflect the signals and make tracking a low flying missile extremely difficult. U.S. Naval radar operators have stated that they had extreme problems in exercises tracking objects in wavy conditions. The Moskva was hit in the first black sea storm of the season which we have confirmation as all videos which came from Mariupol that day showed bleak, rainy conditions, even Gonzalo Lira I believe reported storms over Kharkov etc. The general region appeared to be stormy for a couple days there. And we know the MOD has reported that Moskva sunk after encountering turbulent waves on its tug back to port.
Thus, it appears a likely thesis is that Ukraine/U.S. intel waited for a long time for the perfect opportunity, in the middle of the night amidst high waves, launched sea-skimming soviet-based Neptune missiles, while perhaps at the same time launching other decoy/distracting attacks like the alleged TB2 decoys that were used. The missile skims only 40-50ft above the water but with waves typically 30-40ft high it would interfere with the fire control radars onboard the ship as it would find greatly difficulty in parsing the missile from the waves at almost the same height.
There are other unconfirmed reports that American drones (RQ-4 etc) which have been a mainstay in that region, went “dark” in the day or days before the incident, which would obviously suggest they were involved in the targeting/tracking etc. Of course these are all things Russia would 100% know, and if any of this is the case, they are keeping it all secret/close to their chests and are preparing reprisals to all parties involved including the U.S.
Uncle Shmuel is a wily devil.
I only live on the shores of the world’s largest lake, but can say that there doesn’t need to be a “storm” for water conditions to be storm like. Often the waves will rise significantly a day or two before what land livers would call the storm. There doesn’t even need to be a high wind for the waves to pick up. Again, often the wind comes after the waves and then makes them bigger. Once the meat of the storm comes it is of course more extreme.
Nightvision, I don’t have your level of knowledge of military strategy. What I do have is gut instincts. My initial thought was that Moskva was hit, not necessarily by Ukraine, but by NATO.
To your other point, if NATO did sink Moskva, don’t expect the Russian MOD to make that information public.
Keep up the great work!
Sea skimming missiles also have problems operating in high sea states, especially over long distances. I don’t think the Moskova was hit by a missile, although it may have run into a rogue floating mine. Even the Pentagon spokesman said they didn’t know what happened to the ship.
Could the Neptune missile fly closer the sea, mayby just 7 feet sea-skimming?
The wawes in western Black Sea were only 3 – 4 ft high at thrsday night, if this sites information are correct: https://www.ventusky.com/?p=43.7;32.9;5&l=wave&t=20220413/2100
Il faut une centrale inertielle sur laquelle le mauvais temps n’a aucune influence. L’hypothèse d’un missile est possible avec une technologie OTAN, bien évidemment.
Translation:
We need an inertial power plant on which bad weather has no influence. The hypothesis of a missile is possible with NATO technology, of course.
If you cannot tell the difference between a hypothesis and spin, you should not read this blog.
I agree, the longer this goes on for, the more likely a Russia/NATO direct confrontation. I understand the initial battle plan, but the longer this is drawn out, the higher the likelihood of a major escalation.
With all due respect, what are you saying? There isn’t any world left after that … It’s the end!!
Hope you’ll change your mind Andrei, freezing your blog will be a huge loss that the righteous side can not afford in this supreme times.
Thanks anyway for everything you’ve already done for us under all this years.
“I remind you that the USA’s wealth is based on how much the USA profited from both WWI and WWII.” That is only half of the story. The other half is, the USA profited by foisting on the world fiat currency that they print endlessly in exchange for real goods and minerals.
Without WW1, the 1917 revolution, and WW2, Russia would have perhaps 400 million people. I assume that the Zio-Nazi dark dream is to reduce Russia’s population to perhaps 75 million, with limited nuclear exchanges. China can then sweep into the ’empty lands’ in the Russian East, and the West can mop up the rest.
An insane plan, for sure, but this is a war of religions, and good/evil dynamics. I am sure the Russian soul understands this! This war has already been going for more than 100 years!
Andrei
I am afraid I disagree with your view of Western PSYOPS, to me they have been a complete disaster, all based on the Goebbels model of repeating the big lie – which was far less effective than the BBC’s old reputation for telling mostly the truth about defeats as well as victories (now sadly destroyed).
Banning RT and Sputnik – which were read, watched and listened to by the Western elites (evidence – they kept going on about them) especially the journalists who know how corrupt Western media is – was a huge mistake.
I have seen articles in Newsweek stating Ukraine has more tanks than before the SMO because they had captured so many Russian tanks followed a week later by a report that Ukraine desperately needed more tanks.
The fact that the fickle and easily manipulable in Western Europe and the US are now out burning Tolstoy and parroting the equivalent of Seig Heil without even realizing it signifies nothing – a month ago the same people were demanding the unvaccinated be put into camps. 20 years ago they were signing up to fight in Iraq – how many now think that little adventure was a smart idea.
The problem with NATO is the same problem as in the good old USA, the US Defense/Intelligence budget is way too large and is a fount of corruption. The number of journalists and politicians who are on the US MICIMATT / NATO gravy train and are afraid of it all coming out are legion.
I should also note that from what I have read in French the French establishment is definitely not on board for WWIII and neither is the French electorate, nor French business but the former Young Leaders from the French-American Foundation such as Emmanuel Macron and Valérie Pecresse clearly are (for the longer list of Young Leaders see https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/French-American_Foundation).
From Canada, I tend to agree w/ M. Le Docteur, at least to that extent that we can say that outside the media / oligarchy & its liberal servant classes, the propaganda victory is far from total–in part because they are always overdoing it, and their pysops strategy seems to be derived from political campaigning–just dominate the next news cycle.
But the false-flags are often abandoned within a day, and though we have short memories, few forget that fast. There is the general public dislike of the media and politicians, (13% approval of Congress), and 2 years of being manipulated around COVID, and the general sense that we are now just useless eaters for these people.
The tell the simple truth strategy has better staying power; the Global South seems to notice, and in pursuing this, the Russians are not squandering the good will the USSR had built up in the South.
Of course it goes far beyond messaging but the spectacle the West is projecting right now is visibly and widely sickening. Elites, of course, are a separate problem.
The one area of consequence that does seem to have been underdeveloped / overlooked is the audience of the Ukraine itself. Russia had / has a decent chance of getting certain truth-backed / evidence-backed messages across. But perhaps through much more locally targeting messaging. You have lights, you have power, you have heat. We’re trying to keep these going. We are trying to evacuate civilian areas. If anyone is blocking this, it will not be us… etc. We want the military to lay down their arms. We do not want to destroy them. We are primarily after the Banderites.
But maybe the best that can be done has been done.
From the article: “Because most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”. Now these are the same folks who until February of 2021 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc. and who in a remarkable feat, became overnight military experts and now are sincerely advising the Russians on how to wage a war.”
Wait what? Legacy media under central command of the ministry of truth (search “Trusted News Initiative”) is “the people”? Well, at least you’re honest about your logic Saker, freudian slip or not. And i don’t mean this in an insulting way. Hell, i’ve noticed many people on “Team B” having this mentality, especially commenters on this blog.
But it’s a problem, Saker: The human mind has a tendency to seek stable anchors. It doesn’t like things being “unstable and in flux”, which can result it prefering a bad narrative over a good one, if the former is more stable and less stressful. In this case you feel comfortable in the “everyone is against me/us, i/we are alone”, while paradoxically complaining about it all the goddamn time – i guess to justify yourself or something. Problem is by doing so you play directly to the propaganda’s goal.
Because you see: The goal of propaganda is not to make everyone believe the BS – only a minority does. The goal of propaganda is to make everyone believe they’re the only sane ones against a zombie apocalypse – i.e. exactly the narrative you keep pushing.
Cue folks telling me that some legacy media poll says i’m wrong. Let me guess: You’re the same people who 2 years ago disregarded legacy media polls, because they’re all BS?
“My first conclusion here is that a direct military conflict involving NATO and Russia is now likely.”
What would that look like? I’ve read that NATO has neither the means nor the manpower to stop Russia from winning in Ukraine…so are you referring to missile attacks?
The ship was just 23-40km from the Romanian coast MADNESS, that gave NATO alot to work with plus there was rec planes in the air with their transponders off (martyanov blog) that could have guided any strike.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/for-mine-and-underwater-diversionary.html
It was possibly even close enough for a seal team to swim out using undetectable two man underwater mini vessels attach mines and get back
It has echos of the shooting down of su24 over Turkey, the pilot had a false sense of security got too close to Turkey and bang.
They say the hardest lessons are the most effective
“It has echos of the shooting down of su24 over Turkey, the pilot had a false sense of security got too close to Turkey and bang.”
But a few years after that Russia started selling S400s to Turkey. Not wise.
I agree to a certain extent with the Saker. I lived three years in Russia and have a fair understanding of the Russian mentality. I also have friends in Ukraine who are absolutely certain Russia is at fault. The Ukrainians get no outside information. As for my American friends and family, they were swayed by the MSM until I thoughtfully walked through what really is happening and why Russia had to act. Most people become very understanding of Russia’s position once they see it through the lense of (1) NATO has been expanding for years; (2) Russia doesn’t want NATO bases on its border with missiles pointed at them (much like we wouldn’t want Chinese military bases in Mexico with missiles pointed at us); and (3) Ukraine refused to be neutral. Most Americans like an underdog in any fight. Here, they rooted for Ukraine because it was supposed to be the David versus Goliath. Once they understand that Russia is truly David fighting against the West Goliath, it changes their perspective. Because of the way the MSM works here, there was no true way for Russia to respond that would’ve changed the MSM landscape. The best thing Russia can do is find very fluent English speakers who can articulate why Russia had to act. Rarely do I find any ambassadors or spokespeople who speak English without a heavy accent. Regardless of how people feel about Benjamin Netanyahu, the guy speaks perfect English and really connected with the average American. Russia needs an equivalent person to do the same.
Dmitry Orlov is good person !!!!!!
“until I thoughtfully walked through what really is happening and why Russia had to act”
It is really important that you do that. We really are looking at a potential WWII here and we don’t have much time to stop it. IMHO
As many people have seen the Chernobyl Miniseries, I usually start from there with the “Old Woman and the Cow” scene:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXKo5CoH5cU
And then go through all of the history, numerous invasions of Russia from the West, NATO expansion, collapse of the USSR, US regime changes, color revolutions, Maidan, Mearsheimer, etc.
And then I end with this (machine translated from Izvestia):
Versailles World of Illusions
“And this trend is disturbing in its recognizability: once again, Europe, intoxicated with its own civilizational exclusivity, is uniting on a single ideological platform that is intolerant of dissent and of specific nations. As it turns out, it doesn’t matter what exactly underlies this ideology: the “holy inquisition”, Bonapartism, fascism or liberalism — the result is almost always the same. And again Drang nach Osten and Lebensraum in the East. Again, the armament is far beyond the necessary defense. More threats and reprisals.”
“Once every 100 years, this invariably happens. We hoped that our generations would not experience this. Our faith in the collective intelligence of Europe seems to have failed us again.”
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en.85f2f6df-622fcc95-50985429-74722d776562/https/iz.ru/1303610/konstantin-kosachev/versalskii-mir-illiuzii
And like you experienced, almost everyone gets it, when it is patiently explained to them.
Sidebar: as to what actually caused the explosion, my personal best guess is a Ukrainian mine detached by the recent storm and drifting southwards which the Russians failed to detect. That would explain the hull breach which later resulted in the Moskva taking in water and sinking while in tow.
I have to agree with your analysis of this. It’s a proven fact that mines were placed and several have broken free from their anchor and floating around in the Black Sea. But we’ll know soon enough I am confident.
Even if the Russian propaganda had been of the very highest quality it still would not have been seen by the Western people. The Empire of lies totally controls the narrative. Any effective points the RF would make would be totally ignored and hidden. Just like the Nazi infestation and what had been happening the past 8 years.
In fact,only those sympathetic to the Russian cause would have experienced any effective RF propaganda. The Western public are not seeking out information to get informed or educated.They rely on their heavily propaganized lies of the MSM fort their “news”. In short, effective RF propaganda aimed at Natostan is a total waste of time as its a very unequal playing field that they have heavily invested in.
The Western media is often reporting the total opposite of what is going on.Even an almighty convincing RF victory will be portrayed as a disastrous defeat. So,what chance is effective Russian propaganda ever going to be allowed to in anyway compete with this dystopian twisting of history?
Who cares about legacy media? Barely anyone watches that shit anymore.
It’s kinda funny and reminds me of the CNN airport thing: Except here the legacy media haters are the airports, since they’re the ones talking the most about legacy media. Everyone else just stopped caring long ago.
Absolutely. No one can manipulate the Western masses like the West. Not even close. I think Russia long ago concluded that their propaganda in the West can make only some difference at the margin. This is one of the reasons they have taken to dismantling the world order. The hope I think is that over time the conflict will begin to affect the Western masses significantly, and then there will be a chance for détente.
I am hopeful and pray that you do not need to “Freeze” your blog, but regardless, there are many in “Zone A” whom highly appreciate your information ‘war’ with it, and would be at great loss if it occurs. I personally have striven to develop backup sources and are thankful for both your blog and many that feed truth into the mix. It is not going unnoticed. A blessed Easter to all of you.
US really needs WW3: tinyurl.com/34tc2b4c so, why does it matter that Russia’s propaganda is not winning in the west. Who cares. The way I see it, USA needs EU to collapse in order for it to survive, and then west EU countries will try to eat east EU (sloven) countries in order to survive. All in all US will try to delay it’s collapse causing EU destruction. The more Russia delays inevitable war the worse it gets for the collective west. Feds already said that they will start reducing money from economy at 95 billions per month starting May 2022. What then happens to fake west economies we should see pretty much soon.
For all of you that are given to thought about what is happening, please see on You tube Russian movie called The white tiger…
Art is at its best always prophetic, that is why one speaks about inspiration…
It is with subtitles…
Very well done film. Thank you for the suggestion!
the White Tiger appears to be roaring again. Lucky us.
“Never be drawn into a war they did not want (except the one launched by the West and the USSR following the Islamic Revolution which Iran won, by the way)”
Just realised Ukraine is similar to Iran – Iraq war
Using Iraq as a proxi to attack Iran
That is a VERY insightful comment I think.
I missed that completely, thank you.
One of the most valuable comment in a very long time (at least for me)
Thanks I would like to add there is a similarity too with two different ethnic groups with the aggressor country having a sizable ethnic group to the target country.
Iraq had a large Shia population which was the majority in Iran, like Ukraine has a sizable Russian population with the target being Russia
Wow. Agree on the historical, geopolitical insightfulness. It is.
Yes. Perhaps the most horrific war in the past 40 years?
Then as now, US provided cover for the war crimes.
Also using Afghanistan as a proxi to attack Pakistan……….but failed.
I think it might get worse than that.
The Ukrainian army is slowly collapsing. We may even be approaching “the last Ukrainian”, at least as far as professionally combat-capable, sooner than anyone thinks. This won’t stop NATO.
I agree with Andre that NATO will keep doubling down. Soon we could see a sizable number of NATO troops in Ukraine fighting as “volunteers” to go with all the weapons pouring in. This could wind up literally being NATO fighting Russia in the Ukraine. Already it seems like they are supplying all the officers.
The only way this might stop is some escalation outside of Ukraine resulting in mass casualties closer to home. The west might have second thoughts when the war comes to their doorstep. As long as the devastation stays in Ukraine they are more than happy to keep this going.
Maybe arming Hezbollah with S-400 and guided artillery might also bring a quick end to this conflict.
If NATO becomes directly involved in combat operations against Russia in Ukraine, Russia must announce to the world unrestricted warfare against all NATO nations. Including nuclear. Announce New York City and London are at the top of the list. Are western people ready and willing to die for Ukraine?
personally I dont believe the billionairs who run US/EU are sucidal, in fact their biggest concern is extending their lives.
Putin has worked for 22 yrs to bring Russia to its current position,
there in no force on the planet that can destroy Russia other then MAD
any NATO intervention would likely end in MAD
theres no way the US would sit out and watch as Russia and Europe go to war
so all the West has is calling Russia names, nuthing the West can do to stop Putin achieving his purpose.
however a biological attack would be serious but would also end in MAD
when the greedy finally see they can’t take Russia down they will just revert to protecting what they have, in a divided world and on the losing side.
Z
The only thing in any war you have to understand is the macro picture…the general trend.
There will be stories of success and failure on both sides but the general trend is Russia is slowly achieving their goals, this will speed up as the Ukrainians run out of the materials to fight.
It is the U.S and NATO who are prolonging this fight. You can see that through Zalenski going from country to country with the begging bowl.
We get warnings against Russia about hitting ammunition dumps in third countries…well if those arms are heading to Ukraine then they are targets.
The U.S will extract a heavy price for these arms, nothings for free with the U.S.
@Cookie,
I have not seen any “warnings against Russia about hitting ammunition dumps in third countries.” Please provide citations. Thanks!
No the threat was veiled as a general threat against U.S supplying arms.
The U.S and NATO are now amassing its suppliers on the Polish side since the Ukrainian depots have been attacked.
If Russia wants to stop these weapons finding the way onto the battlefield then they have to hit where they are stored.
Poland is a belligerent in this war and not to target them is hurting Russian efforts.
Just a small correction: Greece didn’t ban the letter Z. Unless there is a news report I missed? My apologies if so. The letter has historical meaning – it was the junta who had banned in it in the early 70s as it stood for ‘he lives’ in honor of Grigoris Lambrakis – and this makes it more unlikely.
Last I heard the Greek government gave up on that plan because it was not “practical” but in reality because many Greeks are opposed to these anti-Russian actions.
Andrei
Really? You mean, people can’t listen to experts in those fields & draw their own conclusions, especially when the govt is made up of liars and warmongers, and revealing their plan beforehand? Go and read PNAC & the original wolfowitz doctrine.
I’ve read a hypothesis that the ‘SMO’ was a free gamble – it was the best first phase in any scenario, and whether it was partially or mostly successful the next phase would be what is currently being done. I think that’s a good hypothesis.
I also think that Russia started the SMO having assigned the highest probability to the West doubling down to no end and declaring everything but open direct kinetic war. I think Russia also assumed that the war would take a long time, perhaps years, before some kind of detente. If these were not the assumptions, then Russia would not have started the SMO. The main objective of which is to bring down the current world order, which of course means the West would fight to nearly the bitter end. So I think there’s no surprise for Russia. Nor China. They decided early on to bring the whole house down while they could. They know what they’re doing.
God help us all.
I also think it was thoroughly prepared.
We don’t really know.
But I remember Putin’s speech when he told that “every external intervention would meet immediate and decisive response” (quoted globally). Russia is doing an anticipated life or death war (by the way, as said by A.Dugin, for the whole world, in reality). Should really keep initiative whatever it takes.
On the other hand, the denazification is a must do, otherwise the cancer is again just delayed. And that means going to cleanup western Ukraine as well. The Saker, please anwer: would it make it otherwise? And this would mean the rebuild of the whole ukrainian system. Huge, long haul stuff. Its inimaginable to leave those demons in place in Kiev or in Lvov either.
First thank you, I wish I had found this place years ago.
Second, I’m back and forth on a few things. I can see a value in Russia going for a rather quicker destruction of the Ukrainian state and the benefit it could have in the larger geopolitical context. I also see great danger in both unacceptable (to Russians) civilian casualties and that it would necessarily leave a problematic insurgency to be dealt with. Going slow has advantages that include grinding the potential insurgency to dust, limiting damage and casualties (a plus in worldwide propaganda) and letting the empire slit its own throat. Of course every day this continues is another day for potential miscalculations and escalations.
It’s nerve wracking enough to be an observer. I’m thankful I’m making the decisions. (Even if I know I could make better decisions than the incompetents running my country. Yes, it is a low bar. It’s laying on the ground.)
Dear Saker,
Thank you for your tireless work and wonderful insights and knowledge. I rarely comment (don’t consider myself competent in such august company, including many of the commenters) but a thought struck me as I read your wish that Russia work on massively increasing it’s naval ship building. As I understand it (correction needed?), China has massive ship building capacity and my though was if it might not be better for Russia if it traded its abundant oil for China’s help for at least a portion of this massive increase. Does Russia actually have the ship building capacity (yards) to ramp this up and would it (both expanding yards and the actual production of the ships) drain away resources from other weapons systems (S-400, etc) vitally needed at this time? Also, would such a deal not further cement the Russia-China collaboration and take it more public? Apologies in advance if my thoughts sound naive.
Cheers,
J-P
I think it has already been made abundantly clear that, should ANY nuclear weapons arrive on Russian territory (which includes the coastal oblasts, e.g. Kaliningrad), then Europe AND the Continental USA are both “toast”, and highly radioactive toast at that.
Well, even the US has had to admit that China is by far the World’s largest ship producer (and by the way has the World’s largest Navy).
Combine this with highly efficient construction systems, and their ability to “out-build” even the USA in terms of replacement naval vessels is a worry for the Pentagon.
So, yes. Such an “arrangement” would be very mutually beneficial, and China certainly has capability to build using Russian designs (after all they were building “their” version of he MiG 21 for decades!). The current generations of smaller (but amazingly well-armed) Russian corvettes are quick (and relatively cheap) to build, and Russia can now supply the marine gas turbines to provide propulsion.
China builds the hulls, Russia provides weapons systems and control electronics. A “match made in heaven”!
https://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/09/china-is-the-worlds-biggest-shipbuilder-and-its-ability-to-rapidly-produce-new-warships-would-be-a-huge-advantage-in-a-long-fight-with-the-us-experts-say/
@Phil S,
Furthermore, it is well known that China wants a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (and perhaps multiple nuclear-powered aircraft carriers). Russia certainly has the expertise to do this even if it lacks the ship building facilities to build its own carrier.
I’ve advocated for this for a while on the forum – I could even see a joint production effort where Chinese and Russian naval ships are relatively interchangeable. Furthermore, Russia could bolster its Pacific and Arctic fleets in a decade long push with China.
While there would likely be Russian and Chinese models, the actual ships themselves would employ the same hulls and other parts.
Since this is so obviously mutually beneficial (especially in view of the present NATO / US threats against both Countries), one has to assume that this is already happening.
Russia needs China, and China needs Russia.
I suspect there may be a number of other “mutual projects” underway – and there’s even no need to hide them since the “Collective West” already is fully subscribed to the “Chinese crap” meme, and will therefore regard such co-operation as irrelevant to “their” blindly pro-West view of all things military.
China has almost completed their third carrier, and here are just two photos of their very massive shipbuilding capacity. Ostensibly “civilian” yards can become military / naval yards overnight, since a hull’s a hull.
http://www.chinasws.com/Public/uploads/60ade5b128e1f.jpg
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTor_BLbb08iS7uFodLvy_RRqdciWxFcmNebg&usqp=CAU
What you over look is that the military is becoming ever more irrelevant in the human evolution process, so is the congress approaching this threshold.
If they believe they can morally and financially afford this project w/o resistance or being criticized, this is what words and bombs are made for, then picking up after the ashes to a new beginning, if there are enough reasonable heads to do so.
You can only put god on the back burner for so long or else, and we have entered the or else phase here.
Russia doesn’t need dozens of boats. Just a leadership that’s a little more realistic.
I doubt NATO will get involved in ukraine. Not only would that be a disaster for them, but the nuclear threat is enough for them to back off. They will employ their propaganda and various BS, but they will not confront Russia directly. If they could, they would’ve done so already. When they see that Russia is pushing forward, and has the momentum, US and NATO will want to talk. Zone A doesn’t want to commit suicide. They want to go on. Confronting Russia directly foes against that. Only IF Russia would strike a NATO country directly could that be remotely possible. If the fighting is confined to ukraine, then NATO won’t do anything directly. But this also weakens their hand, so inevitably they will have to make a deal with Russia. Besides, the economic situation will only get worse for their societies, and when those societies get fed up, all those plans to bleed Russia will be over, because the Zone A regimes will have much more immediate local problems.
Agree , an those “local problems” are coming like on a High Speed Rail train.
That won’t end well.
@Edward,
Totally agree. I don’t quite understand Saker’s dark mood. The special operation is working. Russia has not suffered any defeat on the battlefield (short of the Moskva – which we have no idea what really happened).
I think that despite the forays by Ukraine into Russia proper (basically for headlines and not any real concrete objective), Russia should move on to Phase 2 and methodically wipe the floor with the AFU in the Donbass.
I would say Phase 2 has already started a couple days ago, not with any fanfare or marketing tatarata, but with the intensification of the artillery work on UAF positions in the Donbass, reflected in the daily briefings of @mod_russia and @mod_russia_en on Telegram, for example just an hour ago:
💥Missile troops and artillery hit 811 assets, including 43 Ukrainian command posts, 8 fuel column for military equipment as well as 760 areas of enemy manpower concentration.
➡️ That is the largest quantity reported up to this day. And as they say, quantity has a quality of its own.
Note *enemy manpower concentration*. That’s a new item that has only been there for a couple days, in fact, only since April 13:
💥Missile troops and artillery hit 693 enemy assets: 676 areas of Ukrainian personnel and military equipment concentration, 11 command posts and 5 logistics depots.
My reading is that this is the kind of destruction that the political leadership initially wanted to avoid, hence the attempt at a *special (military) operation*, which didn’t work, but it was tried, maybe for psychological reasons, in order to clear their conscience for the fratricidal slaughtering that has now begun.
See Marko Marjanović, makes sense to me:
https://anti-empire.com/the-withdrawal-from-kiev-is-russian-escalation-its-the-transformation-from-a-psy-op-to-a-textbook-war/
Whether or not the Russians act to stop this will tell a story.
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/ukraine-merchants-of-death/
What story will be tell then?
@ Saker
– The collapse of the “the Russians are losing” narrative replaced by
– A Russian “atrocity” of some type
Either an atrocity or a target of opportunity.
Front page of the WaPo, “Blast sinks Russian ship,” as if the entire Russian navy suffered another Tsushima.
Regardless of whether the Moskva was attacked by the Ukis, was either hit by a mine (an attack by “luck”), or had an accident in the ship, we can be sure anytime the Russians are having a victory, like the total defeat of Ukronazis in Mariupol, Ukros will either create another Bucha (staged massacres also help with visitors), or hit a target of opportunity, the more sensational the better. It has to be an easy, turkey shot, but big. Ukros learned the lesson, even if it happened by sheer serendipity, the MSM presstitutes gave the victory to them, no doubt, and they are gloating in that fake and phony “glory.”
Some say that the next “New Russia” was “born in the LDNR”, and I hope that they are right, not in the sense that Russia needs to copy all the decisions (often bad ones too!) of the LDNR, but Russia does need to purge herself from those in positions of power who are just stuck in the past or unable to adapt to new realities.
I read somewhere Russia is in need of a “purification” process, and it is already happening, purification by fire. Many of those “stuck in the past” are already taking off, not enough of them, but it is happening. The West is welcoming them with open arms, jobs and all. Their exit purifies Russia, and leaves a space for a new creation.
Lone Wolf
I am reading it more of a case of purifying the toxic elements of Russian society. We see this in a combination of 5th Column and Oligarchs fleeing the country. One of the sticking points with Belarus was the issue of Oligarch influence in Russia. This operation seems to be doing a great job of dealing with that issues which will then open the door to Belarus joining the R.F.
Irony is that he West is also punishing these Oligarchs – who became such by being instruments of the Western Finance against Russia post USSR. No tears to be shed there.
True but it is even much worse. If let’s say the ‘war’ ends today and if Putin or even anybody Russian says: ukraine lost, ukr is destroyed etc….believe me there is nobody, absolutely nobody who is going to believe it even with thousands of proofs, even if Zelinsky capitulates live on tv(he will be said to be prisoner, blackmailed of even he became a Putin agent…etc).
This is VERY dangerous because after the biggest psyop in the history of humanity, politicians(elected or even more, non elected EU) will only double, triple down as they can not afford such a level of ‘losing face’ in front of their sheeps.
If Russia does not occupy 100 % of ukr, does not kill all ukies including ZE, they will rebrand it as ”russian catastrophic defeat’, collapse etc..
They will go for broke even energy embargo(which is already decided they just wait for Macron reelection next sunday) and even ‘nato’ invasion or nukes.
When you wrongly believe your own lies that you are ‘winning’, it is even more dangerous.
Only a major real defeat on their soil will calm them down.
And today they are wishing to open the ‘Taiwan’ front, if confirmed in the coming months, this could be their final mistake?
Their economy almost destroyed, they don’t care, too late guys. This is pure ideology, racism, fascism 2.0 and probably soon nazism 2.0(just listen to some statements these days on national tv in Germany to name one country: ”we need to destroy Russia, they are not european, we must finish them all once and for all”…).
National tv, not a conspiracy youtube channel or some Qanon or crazy stuffs like that.
Pure madness, Dr Strangelove in real.
Let’s hope there are some ‘Scott Ritter’ or even Macgregor left in the Pentagon or in Brussels, but I doubt it.
New massacre false flag in preparation:
Week end is coming they need to fill their msm.
Russian Investigative Committee to probe into Kiev’s plans of provocation in Lozovaya
“Russia’s Investigative Committee will request the defense ministry to share information that Ukraine’s 19th missile brigade plans to use a Tochka-U missile system to deliver a strike at refugees at the railway station in the settlement of Lozovaya
MOSCOW, April 15. /TASS/. Russia’s Investigative Committee said on Friday it will study the Russian defense ministry’ data on a provocation against the Russian army, which is being prepared by Ukrainian troops in the settlement of Lozovaya.
https://tass.com/society/1438563
the western countries wont change until the people of those countries change their governments to end the policy of destruction of russia at all costs
unfortunately in the USA, Trump still appears the top favored candidate, but he is brain dead as Biden on these issues.
It is no wonder the Serbs support Russia. They were very badly treated by the West.
«It is no wonder the Serbs support Russia. They were very badly treated by the West.»
The war of aggression by NATO against Yugoslavia was probably motivated by anti-russian goals, they could not care less about Kosovo’s mafia.
The effect of the incasion of Yugoslavia was to prove that the Russian Federation was too weak to protect Yugoslavia and therefore the elites of the countries in between had better become NATO members, or else be subject to the same treatment. Yugoslavia was beaten up hard to show that the USA could redraw borders in Europe and nobody could stop them. As written by Jonah Goldberg, “Baghdad Delenda Est, Part II: Get On With It,” National Review, April 23, 2002.
“Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.”
In the Yugoslavia case it was also to show that the Russian Federation could not help even a historic ally.
Thank you, Blissex, just a few points.
Serbia has lost at least 3 million people in two world wars thanks to the Germans, the Vatican and their henchmen. 50% of male population was destroyed in the former. In 1995, 300000 Serbs had to leave their homes in order to save their lives from a bloodthirsty Croat cancer. Then, NATO bombed it for 78 days – indiscriminately – and destroyed the country’s infrastructure. And they never surrendered – while the rest of the world looked the other way. And yet, they are still standing proud in the middle of a NATO snake pit. That Goldberg fellow was wrong – the Serbs lit the fuse that will eventually explode the bloated, criminal and degenerate Western empire.
The War to Destroy Yugoslavia began immediately after the Cold War ended. Washington has had since 1991 a Grand Strategy of fostering chaos and instability in Europe. The War to Destroy Yugoslvia was created by Washington to destabilize Europe. The Ukraine Conflict has been also created by Washington for the same goal.
Washington is terrified of a peaceful stable Europe.
Russia will win, eventually. But cannot win without superior ideals to animate Russian strength, the power of the people animated by the power of God. It is not a mystery: the people must be united by both Orthodoxy and Socialism, by Tsar and Soviets, Nation and Motherland! These things are not contradictory, but complimentary.
This I believe will happen, the conflict has begun the process and the conflict will be ended by it.
Yes, my friend. The victory on the battlefield will come from the victory of love and reconciliation. It was a Romanov Grand Duke who issued a call in 1941 (from abroad) to all Russians to defend their motherland under the banner of socialism.
Indeed, brother, so be it!
Bandera Fascists I figure would be here, by the slime trail of lies and half truths they leave.
Thank you Ken: That was good to know. And thank you also to Vladimir for your vision. I like the way you tied it together so nicely.
Spasibo, Snow Leopard. Some things I write poorly of, maybe most things, but what I l sense intuitively I just let flow.
Ken Leslie?? What a delight to see your name and comments here again. Like many other readers of this blog, I’m sure, I loved the articles your wrote for the Saker. Your ideas of pan-slavism and Slav unity so needed, yet non-existent, spoke to my heart. And the current events in Ukraine are proving you right…
Please, do consider writing for this blog again, never mind some of the rather brutal comments you got following your last excellent article. To me, those only proved that your ideas about a need for Slav solidarity and support were correct.
Good article sir!
Away from the western BS!
“Not suicidal”, but they’re delusional…between their imperative to power which forces them to believe in delusions, and also due to drugs..everything from “mood elevators for Dr Fellgud, to the cocaine their children snort and shoot. Anyway, delusions tend to create disaster, and we can call that suicidal. Deeply, they’re terrified. Waxing more spiritual, they’re possessed by evil.
In another matter, the propaganda in the US telegraphs their fantasies. Lately the propaganda says they plan to kidnap VVP and run him through a kangaroo court. One may imagine an airplane affair.
It’s reasonable to expect them to try. If they succeed, well, that would lead to certain consequences. And if they do not succeed that too would lead to certain consequences.
For some strange reason I keep thinking of that nasty musical “the producers” (1968).
My very best to Saker. he’s tried hard, done a great job, and I think grown in esteem, judgement, and stature over the course of the site. I really appreciate his hard work and dedication, and optomism. I pray the AZE manages to denazify in a good way. But some may expect Russian and Chinese MP patrols in New York before it’s settled.
When I see the poor people living in basements under fire I remember a German fella I worked with…his childhood situation was like that (and he was a nazi, had even the scrap-books of the “good old days” and his Hero Mr H in artistic poses…he was also in the US air-force.) Anyway, I wonder if I too will live in ruins.
Not to worry about Moskva loss. She may have not been up armoured an upgraded but she was likely equipped with advanced EW assets and that IS a loss… but nothing that Russian AWAC-type aircraft cannot compensate for.
Keep up the good work Andrei. Some of us in Canada understand what is going on and who is who in this Manichaean equation unfolding before our eyes.
DR-Montreal
China may have a role to play here.
It is not merely a contest between 5th century Rome and Byzantium.
Doesn’t China have a tremendous amount of economic clout with Zone A? And isn’t it in China’s best interest to prevent the current scuffle from becoming nuclear?
— that’s all I have, I need to study for my sofa surfing PhD in immunology. :-)
(but seriously, thank you, Andrei. I look forward to each and every update here)
China is trying to mimick USA to a certain degree, i.e. fighting USA by proxy – Russia is going to do the actual fight, China is going to supply ( China does not even supply yet) . This is a very risky behavior.
It is enough to contrast deep Ukraine with local Nazism. Give the local forces weapons and support. Organize them. To do what the United States is doing, pumping Kiev with weapons.
What I have been saying over and over would be necessary after the failure to crush the Ukranazi coup regime in 2014, when it was still shambolic and its military a joke. If I could see that, I don’t know why the Russian military couldn’t.
The “Russia is losing” story has a sinister subtext that is much more than just propaganda to keep the blueyellow flagwagger nazilover twittertwit gang happy. When the Ukranazi collapse becomes impossible to conceal, some kind of pretext will have to be invented to explain away the “sudden” defeat and achieve the aim of gathering fence sitting nations behind the AntiRussia Crusade. With Olodomyr Elensky (V and Z being banned, obviously he can’t use them anymore) blabbering about Russia possibly using nuclear weapons, that’s obviously the plan. Is Russia ready to deal with the possibility of a NATO nuclear strike on Kiev, blamed on Moscow? Is anyone seriously ruling that out as something NATO might do?
@Biswapriya Purkayastha
You wrote: “Is Russia ready to deal with the possibility of a NATO nuclear strike on Kiev, blamed on Moscow? Is anyone seriously ruling that out as something NATO might do?”
I would rule it out completely. NATO will not start a nuclear war. Just will not happen unless Russia strikes a NATO country with a nuke. To make your scenario plausible, NATO would have to drop a nuclear bomb on London or Paris and then blame Russia. But why would they do that? It makes no sense. There is no victory that can come of it.
NATO’s goal, IMO, is to force Russia into submission (bend the knee) and regime change (Putin gone). This will not happen if there is a nuclear war.
There is no reason at all to think Russia will stay WWIII in response to a NATO nuking of Kiev any more than there was to think Russia will start WWIII in case NATO responsibility is proved for the Moskva.
«the failure to crush the Ukranazi coup regime in 2014, when it was still shambolic and its military a joke. If I could see that, I don’t know why the Russian military couldn’t.»
When Saakhashvili ordered the georgian army to ethnically cleanse south Ossetia in 2008, and massacre the Russian Federation peacekeepers protecting it, the response of the Russian Federation military was shambolic and weak, and struggled to win over the tiny and shambolic georgian army.
The chechen wars also has demonstrated that. So Putin tried very hard to improve the RF military, which was a difficult and long term task, because the RF also has a military-industrial-duma complex like the USA.
«When the Ukranazi collapse becomes impossible to conceal, some kind of pretext will have to be invented to explain away the “sudden” defeat and achieve the aim of gathering fence sitting nations behind the AntiRussia Crusade»
We already know the answer: atrocities. The story is already being written explicitly in many media, that the defeated russians are resorting to atrocities against the civilians, and that the ukrainian government will nobly surrender even if they are winning, just to stop the massacres.
With Olodomyr Elensky (V and Z being banned, obviously he can’t use them anymore)
Only if he writes his name in the Latin script. As far as I know the Ukrainians still use Cyrillic and I doubt Zelensky uses Latin much.
Welcome back. I thought you were shown the door by the Saker some time ago, around the time of the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
How exactly do you suggest Russia crush the coup in 2014?
In the city where I live (Belgrade), it happens that at night you come across a pack of dogs that are not friendly towards you. The rule is to recognize the leader of the pack and focus your attention on him. If you scare him, the others will withdraw. According to that principle, I think that it would be good to somehow arrange the meeting of one kinzhal and one US aircraft carrier. I don’t know if it is technically possible, but I have the impression that such an action would cool many heads and be of general benefit. It could also be considered a decent invitation to the US to negotiate.
I remember a Serb saying that they only learned towards the end of their war with the KLA/Albanians that if you kill the leader they Albs fall in chaos. So apparently, not long before the NATO bombing ended, they figured out a better way to fight the KLA but it was too late to have so much effect as they could have had. Unfortunately all the surviving KLA then kidnapped, tortured and killed Serbs, Montenegrins, Roma, etc. with impunity under the eyes of the NATO forces.
The Serb providing the assessment that killing the Albanian KLA leader would see the Albanians crumble is wrong. The Yugoslav military killed the initial leader of the KLA Adem Jasheri essentially making him a martyr. Milosevic rightly pacified and protected the peaceful Albanian leader Rugova where the KLA was also killing his party members. Milosevic military campaign was a complete success, the political agreement was a complete disaster. Russia envoys essentially told Milosevic he had no other choice and UN resolution 1244 was signed and then reneged on by the US and NATO. Milosevic was isolated and eventually defeated by western backed forces inside the country to turned him over to the so called Hague Tribunal. I had a large laugh today that Milosevic prosecutor Geoffrey Nice was on CNN talking about how to prosecute Putin. Milosevic represented himself at the The Hague and made mincemeat of the prosecutions case so much so that they poisoned him.
I aggree here with you. Generally, that is how the things evolved.
Albanians are never stopped by removing/killing the leader, on the contrary. They have a long history of vendetta, what was the word – “bessa” ? In their male dominated society, even eliminating all men would not stop them, a female is sworn “Burnesha” and fully takes the role of a male leader. You cannot even recognize that a “Burnesha” is a biological female.
Albanian political/paramilitary leadership is totally run by US intel, CIA, with large input of UK MI6, German BND, & Turkish MIT. Removing individual leaders changes nothing there, during World War 2 in Kosovo Nazi Germany set up SS Skenderbeg division – the state of Albania was created by the Habsburg Empire, they are up to their necks in western infiltration. And they serve the west with a loyal fanaticism that is unparalleled, if they are told collectively to jump off a cliff, they will do it.
Not a carrier, but a LNG tanker. You sink a Aircraft Carrier you are in to WWIII. A civilian tanker is a horse of a different color. Of course everyone will scream Russia, but what will they be able to prove?
The FSB came to raid Aeroflot. Yesterday afternoon(04/12), employees of the special services rushed to the office of the company on the Arbat in Moscow. The searches lasted all day.
One of the reasons for the search was the statements of the former deputy director of Aeroflot, Andrei Panov, as well as his position on the “special military operation in Ukraine”. Sources confirm that “the searches took place precisely in the Panov county”. He served as Deputy Director of Strategy, Services and Marketing from 2018 to March 2022.
Andrei Panov, who left Russia, recently wrote a column in the “Financial Times”, in which he called on his colleagues – the main leaders and senior executives of Russian companies – to “sabotage hostilities by delaying or ignoring every transaction or contract that supports Russian hostilities or propaganda”.
Now Panov is in Israel. On March 12, he announced in his social networks that he had resigned from the airline and left Russia. “We left Russia. We left Aeroflot. The old life is over,” he wrote.
Every. Single. Time.
Can someone please explain to me how to denazify the jewish Zelenski government? Also, how to denazify the jewish owned propaganda media machine of the west? !אַ שיינעם דאַנ
I continue to hope that Russia and the United States will NOT be drawn into a direct, military confrontation. The risk of escalation to all out nuclear war is far to extreme. While Russia has some realistic concepts about a limited nuclear war, US politicians and military insist that any use of nuclear weapons should escalate to armageddon.
However; I’m equally hopeful that a Russian victory in Ukraine will so discredit not only the current, Senile Sock Puppet President Biden but the deep state bureaucracy that installed him in the White House. President Trump wasn’t a perfect President, but he would not have allowed US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to incite the Arab Spring that spawned ISIS and ISIL, nor would Trump have incited the 2014 coup in Ukraine. Hillary and the Deep State Bureaucracy refused to accept that the Cold War was over and insisted on igniting a hot war. A successful outcome in Ukraine might bring about needed political change in the US.
Agree with you Elmer….last sentence..it may end warmongering neocons/neolibs..influence in Dept. of the State but far bigger problem is MIC …
President Trump wasn’t a perfect President, but he would not have allowed US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to incite the Arab Spring that spawned ISIS and ISIL, nor would Trump have incited the 2014 coup in Ukraine.
Elmer Fudd on April 15, 2022 · at 7:20 pm EST/EDT
You’re forgetting that Trump stopped neither the Ukrainian nor the Venezuelan operation, and mounted the Bolivian lithium-coup that overthrew Morales, which didn’t end well at all for the local coup-plotters, and by using Ivanka as intermediary has exposed her to a nasty international-warrant threat.
“While Russia has some realistic concepts about a limited nuclear war …”
There is no such thing as a realistic concept about any kind of nuclear war, and that is for the very same reason that there is no realistic concept about an attack by flying saucers. You’ve been lied to for 77 years, time to wake up.
Actually you are a Swiss national, so legally you are in an interesting position. Without a declaration of War, the U.S. treason laws do not go into effect. During the undeclared Viet Nam war one could go around with a Che t-shirt carrying a Vietcong flag and chant “Ho Ho Ho-chi min, the NLF is gonna win”. Since the US legally was not at war, you could not be charged with giving aid and comfort to the enemy.
Interesting analysis. It is very odd to see “liberals” supporting out and out Nazis. I maintain that US ‘liberal democrats’ have been so used to Orwellian propaganda they are actually Fascists, hence affinity for there fellow fascists in Ukraine.
He’ll take orders off his bosses and shut down.
Observation:
Oh man, we do get some idiot-level comments here!
Now that Z is banned, Zelinski will have to change his name. I suppose he is now “Elinski”, or just “E” or “Mr. E” to be polite?
I do not envy the changer of names.
Hello Saker
I think the Great Arsonist will soon try to draw China into a conflict in the Pacific, to 1) distract China from supporting Russia, and 2) prevent China from growing economically stronger and more influential on the sidelines as the US depletes itself over Ukraine.
This is all getting very dark and serious. Just like a paranoid delusional person, Americans have lost touch with reality. They only seem to have some vague notion that a nuclear conflict will somehow mess up their day.
Russia will not win a conventional war with the US because the chances of it remaining conventional are very small. There will be no winners in a nuclear war.
A nuclear-armed country facing defeat will in all likelihood start using nuclear weapons, perhaps initially on the battlefield, then strategically as a warning. This was understood by all during the Cold War.
If the Russian SMO is now edging towards some sort of hot war between Russia and NATO, and the US mainland needs to be hit for the Americans to appreciate Russia’s strength as mentioned in your article (both logical arguments), then we all better start praying really hard for a miracle.
Please understand this: China has the ability to destroy every and anything that Zion West throws at them in the oceans off of China. They don’t need north Korea,who would be itching to destroy you also.
Russia can tear the living hell out of NATO in a conventional war, and also hit north America with conventional missiles, which is exactly what is needed to stop the hatred, bullying and ignorance that is America.
You armed Ukraine for a decade, trained their Nazis, shut off all things Russian for what??? In the name of peace, the say way you did all around the world destroying countries from your “goodness”. Your controlled officials always threaten some countries with limited nuclear strikes.
Your only weapons against Russia is your stupid sanctions, the futile re-arming of the Nazis, and your propaganda machine, but why all this hatred?
The answer is simple: You are owned by a handful of people, the military complex, and corporations, and the masses, just like in Europe are just servants.
China can mobilize 5 million people in 2 days to defend their country, and have highly trained technical military, excellent logistics and thousands of all types of missiles, including nuclear.
The decades of decay of western lives is clearly been shown. America a country with homeless, drug addiction, racism against all people, crime,killings and taught to look up to a few people that have accomplished the self- called “American dream”. Musk, Bezos, Gates, Jobs etc..
Even the economic war unleashed spells doom, but keep blaming it on Putin,and take it to buy gas!
I wish to add some empirical information regarding the concept that “most in Zone A do not believe Russia is winning the war.” Up to today I believed that. Then I spoke to a family member for the first time about Russia Ukraine since things began in February. This family member purposely doesn’t go out of their way to read a lot of news and certainly wouldn’t seek out truth tellers like the Saker. So I was actually shocked when this family member sarcastically retorted that Putin was to blame for inflation here in the U.S. They followed this up with another sarcastic comment that Russia is losing the war because our government says it is. I said to them “thank God there are many alternative news sites that are speaking the truth. My kin said, “Oh you don’t need to go to an alternative news site to get this information. I’ve been reading it on the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal”
Of course this family member is not some loony leftist who needs to be rehabilitated – so they have enough common sense to be leary of information . But I think there is a very large population in the U.S. who are not buying any of the lies being disseminated by tje Empire of Lies.
Judging by current events (flooding Ukraine with arms, attempts to add Sweden and Finland to NATO, planned nuclear “sharing” with non-nuclear NATO states like Poland, dramatically increased NATO military budgets and arms sales to NATO, pending confrontation with China over Taiwan, Israel preparing war on Iran, regime change in Pakistan, etc.) it looks like the US is hell-bent on starting WWIII.
The overwhelming barrage of propaganda – which drives political action as well as public opinion – leaves no doubt. We’ve seen this before: Colin Powell at the UN with a vial of baby powder professing intelligence of WMDs in Iraq, Saddam Hussein behind 9/11, RussiaGate … at this point the best we can hope for is a military coup in the US to prevent WWIII.
A dim hope at best because of all the CEOs in fatigues.
@Black Cloud,
I appreciate your pessimism but the USA is not hell-bent on starting WWIII. Instead it wants both Russia and China to bend the knee (agree to be subservient to USA global elite interests). This will not happen.
A Russian victory over Ukraine will terminate this fantasy. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan will terminate this fantasy. And all of this can be accomplished without WWIII.
«the USA is not hell-bent on starting WWIII. Instead it wants both Russia and China to bend the knee (agree to be subservient to USA global elite interests). This will not happen.»
Yet it did happen for several years with Yeltsin, and it happened in Ukraine not that long after the dissolution of the USSR. Color revolutions are relatively easy: many countries have upper-middle and upper classes that regard USA “protection” as a guarantee of their wealth and incomes, and the costs of USA “protection” are usually paid by the lower-middle and lower classes.
Sake ! First, Thanks for all your great analysis. It’s just my opinion, but I truly believe the USA will NEVER participate in a war with Russia using its own people (other than the NATO and CIA types already on the ground in Ukraine), but will ALWAYS use proxies to do its fighting. Euro “leaders” are almost assuredly all bribed and/or blackmailed by the Bilderbergers/WEF (the Beast of Revelation of 13?) by way of the US government (the False Prophet of Revelation 13?), for almost nothing else could possibly explain why they act against their own nations’ interests. I also believe that after the Ukies are down to the last Ukie, Europe will then be encouraged to fight down to the last European, starting with eastern Europe first. But I digress… and want to ask you: Knowing that the world will almost assuredly be split into just East and West in the not-to-distant future (East being Russia, China, and the Global South), would you ever consider moving to Russia, or will you always remain in the West ?
“Europe will then be encouraged to fight down to the last European, starting with eastern Europe first.”
I don’t think Europeans will want to risk their lives and country over Ukraine. Greece is now saying they won’t be making any more large deliveries of weapons to Ukraine as they are concerned about their own defense against Turkey. They will only help until they sense a real risk for themselves or their own country.
Sorry for the second comment. Just keep thinking about UK PM being in trouble now and asked to resign…. is it because of Moskva or maybe this observation by the Times reported by Intel Slava? Or both? 3 fines, so, 3 infracrions? Sorry, again, i dont know anything about polotics or war.
Intel Slava Z
🇬🇧🇺🇦⚡British special forces returned to Ukraine to resume training of the Ukrainian military in Kyiv and its environs – The Times
The publication, citing one of the Ukrainian officers, writes that British instructors are called upon to teach the use of NLAW anti-tank missiles. The British Ministry of Defense refused to confirm this information to the publication.
So ABC evening news tonight said 400+ sailors plus the captain of the Moskva are dead. Pravda reports everyone is safe.
So what’s the truth?
Firstly, your mistake is listening to ABC as your news source. Once you turn it ‘ALL OFF’ and ‘ONLY’ seek alternative sources other than the mainstream western media corps.
The ‘ANSWER’ you seek to your question will become clearer.
Let wisdom be your guide…
Andrei, I detect stress. As we say in Brasil, calma Betty. :)
1) The war already started, as in the US/NATO vs Russia. Are not Russia and the LDNR already holding NATO prisoners? Relax it is already going, grab a snack and enjoy.
2) The PSY Ops has had unintended consquences. Look at what is going on with Musk and Twitter. Now the MSM has had to rotate 180 degrees, from only projecting horse manure in Russia´s direction, to having fend off a serious existencial attack by Musk. They are under intense close quarter fire baby. Muuuuuuuuuuuuaaaaaaaahaha!!!
3) How was Biden looking in North Carolina, giving that hardy handshake to thin air and then becoming completely ……… and I mean f´ing completely lost on stage, before finally kind of wandering off while looking for his horse? Russian intel and counter intel ops are top notch but, that kind of stuff is not even remotely plannable. :P
4) Ah, ………… gasoline is almost $10 a gallon in California? Pffffffffffffffft ….. LMAO. wait until the harvest season, in the fall up north there, is a flop. Nobody is going to care who started it at that point, they are just going to grab and eat the nearest available human being to them. Getting ugly is not going to be suffiecient to describe it all.
And how about this stuff? Natural Gas is up over $7.00 now!!! OMFG!!!
https://oilprice.com/
5) Did anybody read how many targets Russia hit yesterday? Something like 150 to 200 from the briefings? Phase 2 is not only rolling but, it went up a few notches. In a week, hardly anybody will remember that a Russian Cruiser sank yesterday.
I understand the frustration Andrei but, once you let the daily barrage of blah blah blah pass you by in peace, reality is still there in front us. I don´t speak Russian but, I do understand human and governmental behavior. It is all the same no matter where you live on this planet. Russian leadership is playing this like a champ. They are helping to light everything on fire and the clowns on the other side do not even suspect that they are flaming yet. Russia over the last week came out of the closet. Forget about the noise, explosions and refocus on the tea leaves and targets hit.
And, I think the world is a better place because there are still people around, like you, with a heart. I think part of mine got checked into the armory, the first time I checked out my M-16A1 on Parris Island. Hang in Andrei, this is getting worse and will continue. When it is over, we will need people with compassion, among those who survive. You take care man.
John
Good post John – and totally agree. I hope Saker’s health is not at risk but I do worry. We all love him and want nothing but the best for him.
I agree… a good analysis… “Some say that the next “New Russia” was “born in the LDNR”, and I hope that they are right, not in the sense that Russia needs to copy all the decisions (often bad ones too!) of the LDNR, but Russia does need to purge herself from those in positions of power who are just stuck in the past or unable to adapt to new realities.”
Andrei, I agree with just about everything you’ve written in your latest great article. I’m most interested in the following, especially your meaning of the phrase “is threatened”.
”My personal conclusion is that the West will only stop doubling down if the US homeland itself is threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities.”
I thought that the US was already supposed to feel threatened by Russian strategic defense capabilities, but, because the US has been doubling down almost every other day, I must assume that you do not believe that the US feels, let’s put it this way, sufficiently threatened.
Regardless, there is no doubt in my mind that, today, the US does not feel threatened, to the point of stopping doing what it is doing, anyway, simply because the US does not believe that Russia will strike the US mainland (say, DC) preemptively with nuclear weapons. Russia has stated a few times that it won’t do use nuclear weapons unless it feels that its very existence is being threatened.
Russia “eventually”, practically speaking, being defeated in Ukraine and at the same time suffering all-out economic warfare, the US feels, would not cause Russia to “feel existentially threatened” and resort to the use of nuclear weapons. (“Defeated, practically speaking” means, for example, that the government of Ukraine moves itself to, say, London as a “government in waiting”; the Zone A nations all recognize that government as the legitimate government of Ukraine; President Z continues to say what he’s been saying about the necessary return of Crimea and the Donbass; never gonna sign another Minsk agreement; please pour more weapons and mercenaries into Ukraine, etc. And the frozen conflict goes on in perpetuity.)
However, if you meant by “is threatened” that Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov stand in front of TV cameras and specifically threaten a nuclear attack on, say, Washington DC, unless the US stops doing what it is doing in Ukraine and many other countries, then I can see such a statement, especially from such men, not only leading to that desired change in behavior, but, equally significantly, to a change in whom US voters elect to Congress and POTUS.
When we consider that these threatening statements would consist only of spoken words – mere human-sound, not concrete action — I think that their possible positive effect more than justifies speaking them. What’s the down side – that the US is going to nuke Russia right after it hears those words? After all, how many times a week does some VIP in the US government say “all options are on the table”? Isn’t what’s good for the goose still good for the gander, or does pure hypocrisy now reign supreme over simple logic in the Great Minds of the USA and those of its ass-licking slave-nations? And, because such words have not come out of a Russian leader’s mouth in many, many years, when they do come out, they will certainly be taken very seriously by, at the very least, US voters in DC and surrounding environs, right up the coast to NYC and Boston. I short, I believe increasingly-possible-nuclear-war-fearing US voters will be far less likely to vote for warmongers, and they might even start marching in the streets for world-peace rather than, or at least in addition to, BLM, transgender rights, etc..
All of the above being said, however, I have no idea how the Russian people themselves would react to those threats coming out of their leaders’ mouths. To say the least, their reaction would be of utmost importance, because the Russian people would have to support those statements 100% or they wouldn’t have any effect on either the Great White Shark or its normally-supportive voters. Do you think average Russians would support such statements? Would you support such statements and, if you do not, what further words or actions could Russia possibly undertake that would cause the US to feel more threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities to the point that they would stop doubling and tripling and quadrupling down?
@Ishkabibble,
I believe the USA already feels threatened. Hence its “Democracy Summit” and its arms shipments to Ukraine and its sanctions on what seems like every country on the planet. It also understands that when Russia put its nuclear forces on alert, it did just what you stated – it said that we are ready to go nuclear if that is what it takes. It does not have to state this explicitly to the USA. The USA understands this. This is why it has not declared a no-fly zone in Ukraine or put NATO troops on Ukrainian soil since the start of the SOP (at least none that are publicly declared).
What Russia needs to do is get on with Phase 2. When the Ukrainian Donbass force is demolished or has surrendered, the war will for all intents and purposes be over and the USA/NATO will have been weakened substantially.
” the operation is going according to plan” (VP). Stop all badgering, it’s useless. And no, no nuclear war next, simply is not that simple. Remember who started talking nuclear? Same “E of L”. Reason? same old one, to have you on edge…and whoever that is is just a clog in the systemic wheel, it never will work for your own good. Everyone tries, but shouldn’t we try it differently? Or is it the comment section in a blog in the net the only place where the matrix will let us exist? Sometimes talking person to person can enhance our scope on things. Rumble in The Jungle. They didn’t take Kiff, so what! We are neither Shaposnikov nor the Stavka to get the scoop on things. Yes I know, when we left it on 41 it was even harder to get it back, some 11,000 villages scorched by Fire and Sword of the Teutonic Knight, ok, let’s call it the birth pangs of 404! the only thing left was one retail shop Babi Yar, Run by South Park and New Haven Ukies! but I guess no one can remember. Ok, let’s go back to Chernobyl, where was I? Oh, Nat never came snow-balling (all those n******, for saker sake), I mean, to really make out a mean borsht of that cauldron! So we left kif, they never came, by the way things are still simmering and at the same time debiefring some field marshal Paulus… who knows maybe in May the immortal regiment will come marching down Dherzhinki Square with 56,000 thousand POW tagging along… and don’t ever forget, all wars are class wars, so your head cold and your heart hot!
Declarations of war are sooo early 20th century. Besides they telegraph your intentions, a really stupid thing to do these days. Whoever starts the thermonuclear shootout that I see no likely way to avoid, either has to be completely suicidal-psycho or they must have a surefire way of defeating the guided missile submarines of the enemy. Since this is NEVER discussed openly I assume one or both sides have solved the problem at least to their own satisfaction. If you don’t kill the subs, they will kill you, so they have to be the first things to go, just seconds/minutes before land based icbm launch systems are hit. There are so many AD weapons that can handle strategic bombers it’s hard to take them seriously.
or let’s re-read Tzun Sun all over again! in 2017 the man say it all TRRinMM (the real revolution) what just happened. But just yet the hardware is just for show, in case any contender. But that mini-mushroom cloud on Irpen airfield paralyzed the boasters! you will need a real technical and scientific revolution in the west to achieve that and then there is China graduating a lot of people every year to keep things on balance!…and then there is your usual story of those getting high on lsd at the nuclear silos, are they really ready on provoking Armageddon, who knows, maybe they get a kick out of the fireworks…
“…and folks are waiting for hours and even days to get across the border”. This is normal thing in any Slav’s country. No sabotage present. We are just like that. No surprise there.
«“…and folks are waiting for hours and even days to get across the border”. This is normal thing in any Slav’s country. No sabotage present. We are just like that. No surprise there.»
A commenter on another blog wrote some time ago:
«I remember once, some years ago in Iron Curtain days, encountering an East German in Romania. I was on the receiving end of some bad government service there at the time and we were both stuck in a long queue. We got to talking and I asked him whether it was like this in East Germany. “No,” he said. So I asked him why not. “Because we’re German,” he replied.»
It is mind boggling that after so much dishonesty the Media still can mobilize the masses in such an orchestrated manner. Watching tv is such a passive way of learning. I don’t indulge and haven’t to any substantial degree in decades, but I did in the past. It’s a seductive mistress!
If transforming thoughtful humans into mindless zombies is the key to the future of humanity, then the Russians truly need to learn how to play these psyops. The US, after so many decades of commercial exploitation are totally vested in this paradigm. Hollywood produces the news.
I say leave it to them. Do you want a mindless troupe of nincompoops or an informed thoughtful constituent that can think for themselves and from which leaders, not tyrants, might spring.
There is an odd old saying that has dogged me since I was just a kid. Hate is closer to love than indifference. A large segment of the world hates Russia, in turn they, the Russians, more inclined to love, have now turned to indifference as a matter of survival. They tried to show us the error of our ways, now they give us the reality of our silly loyalties and excess media consumption.
Like it or not the world seems poised to purge it’s population. Well it’s hard to pick your poison when every damn source of information is playing a game of deception. I’ve grown to trust this space more than most.
It’s a shame that Slav fights Slav to satisfy the blood lust of those who never can have enough power. Was this fight a conscious choice or the result of a well crafted psyop. Sure we make money on the arms, but send our sons, nah! So yeah cancel any peace talks, cancel all the love, hate rules the world, lets get good at it!
As an ex submariner something tells me the US had more to do with that beautiful ship going down than they are gonna brag about. Revenge is best served cold and they already seem hesitant to take credit for the dirty deed. Don’t think anybody will be sky larking after that one.
I think of the Russian warship that stood by to help while the USS Liberty bled and I hang my head in shame. Are you in this fight or just gonna hide behind proxies for the rest of your life? Perhaps they should just kill any NATO folk and not even say a word about it.
There is something about winning a fight, that you tried to avoid, in a manner that is fair and square, as we used to say. It speaks to the old honorable ways. Ultimately pleasing God is on the agenda, not just win no matter how many ladies you have to tape to a light post, for shame!
Maybe it’s time Russia took the gloves off, you can’t pussy foot around if you’re trying to win a war, it’s just a good way to get a lot of your troops killed.
Why worry about the population when they hate your guts anyway, go after the comic and his generals and the higher echelon of the Ukie command. As they say, nice guys come in last, but last in a war is no place to be, a missile or two into one of those countries that lets in the military hardware would wake the NATO countries up that it’s not a training maneuver and perhaps the next one might have their name on it
@Saker
“Because most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”. Now these are the same folks who until February of 2021 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc. and who in a remarkable feat, became overnight military experts and now are sincerely advising the Russians on how to wage a war……”
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Made me laugh so hard I spit out the coffee I was drinking as I read it ….
👍
I think you sell the American people short while it’s true that the media is bought and paid for that really don’t mean the people are and polls are as useless as teats on a boar hog as they say for I talk to very few people that think Russia’s in the wrong or losing the war. I think it’s very easy to get tangled up in the web of deceit which I think many do which clouds their judgement.
After Moskva, what next?
Nick Giambruno describes the escalation ladder as a concept of how the severity of a military conflict can increase.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/climbing-escalation-ladder-economic-war-russia-here-nuclear-option/5774307
‘At the very top of the escalation ladder is all-out nuclear war.
While there are numerous countries with nuclear weapons, Russia and China are the only ones with sophisticated enough arsenals to go toe-to-toe with the US up to the top of the escalation ladder.
In other words, the US can’t obtain escalation dominance against Russia or China because they can match each escalation up to all-out nuclear war—the very top of the ladder.’
Regarding the Moskva ‘incident’, it seems evidence for a direct NATO provoked escalation, planned and tightly co-ordinated between their key partners, is already filtering into the public sphere.
No doubt the Russian Command will know much more than we can, however, if what is public is even close to the facts, this would confirm the involvement of NATO in a direct military action against Russia.
That’s an undeniable step up the escalation ladder.
The question becomes what would constitute an appropriate step up in response.
In my view, this ought to be the destruction of a similarly important asset to NATO, like an aircraft carrier.
I would advocate for a calculated warning to allow for the safe removal of personal, to make the point very clear.
Clearly that’s the only language NATO currently understands.
Just my 10 cents worth.
If this IS the case (and just now we don’t really know), then, yes, Russia must (and will) respond in kind.
Were the crew of the Moskva given early warning? No. Therefore the crew(s) of NATO targets will have no advanced warning.
This not a “gentleman’s duel” this is escalation to NATO vs Russia. If the effective way to send NATO “the message” is to annihilate their troops – then that’s the route Russia must take.
The victors write history. If the USA is the victor in this iteration, then the future for all of us “not-connected” civilians is going to be very bleak indeed.
Can Russia PsyOp and Civil Affair on par with the dogs of wars. No! The argument that Russia is loosing the PR war has no context in Russian society. Across the board inclusive of Orthodoxy, Islam and Buddhism, Russians empathize with their neighbors. As Peskov struggles to lie, as the Russian MoD struggles to lie, as the Chechen moping teams struggle to lie, Russia society CAN NOT force themselves to deceive. However, the west loves it! They love to lie and fool. The more they deceive the greater the adrenaline to the extent that it seems sexual. The greater the lie the harder the erection. Respect the fail of the Russian PR. Orthodox, Muslim and Buddhist republics love each other to their own detriment and can not find an alter ago to act otherwise. Russia knows nothing, but the love of a higher power.
” As Peskov struggles to lie, as the Russian MoD struggles to lie, as the Chechen moping teams struggle to lie,”
The person and organisations above are schooled in Tell the truth few will believe you, and hence are engaged in attempts at communication.
However “The United States of America” are not only attempting to make a sales pitch, from inception to date “The United States of America” are and contune to be a sales pitch, and hence are engaged in attempts at perception management.
Why must Russia lie, develop a propaganda effort!?
I dont see the point of wastig resources on such an effort. Russia must confidently speak the truth pro and conversely as it is doing, clearly, precisely.
The truth, reality, will abut with the propagandized western mentality soon enough as the facts become unavoidable and forcibly correct western mentality with the general social pain western overall failure is producing
That there is danger in the genertal inaccurate popular impression of whats going on in the west is true for sure, but how widespread and deep is propagandized western impression really?
May not be as great as The Saker impresses
You are not ready for the truth.
You are not ready for the truth…… or even not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, given change is a constant and so omniscience can never exist.
“Then there is an interesting phenomenon that became very apparent over the past 50 days: there are quite a few websites and blogs that PRETEND to be pro-Russian but, in reality, that support is conditional on Russia supporting their agenda and if Russians do things differently those putatively pro-Russian outlets quickly take up the exact same talking points as the US PSYOPs. ”
– namely that The Russian Federation is losing the PR war in 2022, and in 2014 that The Russian Federation must invade Ukraine which was one of the purposes of the coup – it was never, ever, about Ukraine, but about the coalescence of Eurasia, which was also partly the case in respect of the early 1970’s where the targets primarily were Japan and China which was the hoped for amenable replacement for Japan at “cheaper cost.”.
The “interesting phenomena” was apparent from at least 2014 and included in these websites was, is and remains The Vineyard of the Saker and its “possessor”
The underpinning pretence was/is based on an over-estimation/evangelisation of ability/facility, including attempts to conflate analysts/strategists, to primarily a lay audience in “The United States of America” – designated as Anglo-Zionism and Zone x thereby suggesting homogeneity – where sales pitching and the ingestion of such is inherent.
This pretence was not sustainable with practioners, since your resort to belief and emotionalism would preclude you successfully passing interview for the roles of either analyst or especially strategist – the maxim Journalists (Analysts) need a sliver of glass in the heart, whilst strategists need triple glazing refers as a guiding principle – with any organisation engaged in “rigorous intelligence”, except perhaps the CIA and related organisations which John Hopkins University was one potential entry portal for many.
This is likely to be part of the explanation why methodologically in matters of analysis, and more especially in matters of strategy, you are so inept – as are to a lesser degree the CIA and its associates – and why the increasing reliance on sourcing material externally from 2014 onward in attempt to minimise perceptions of consistent emulation and “sustainable understanding” ergo belief.
From 2013 onwards your pretence has increasingly been based on your assertion/assumption/belief that you “know” the purposes of The Russian Federation, how these will be facilitated and that this forms a plausible belief for your target audience, since for cultural reasons the target audiences’ access to direct/non-interpreted information is restricted facilitating a role for you.
From the inception of The Russian Federation the CIA and its associates has increasingly been based on their assumption that they “know” the purposes of The Russian Federation, how these will be facilitated, and that this forms a plausible belief for their target audience, since for cultural reasons the target audiences’ access to direct/non-interpreted information is restricted facilitating a role for them.
“At the same time, Russia as a whole, and especially the military, did an absolutely awful job talking to the public, both in Russia and in the West.”
As virtually all practitioners understand, without understanding purpose no valid actionable analyses can be made, and hence all interpretations are rendered suspect and cannot be incorporated into strategies unless the purpose is to render strategies dreams and wishes – hence some practitioners’ caution of tell the truth few will believe you.
“The only mistake the US PYSOPs made was that they really “overdid it”
The question that practitioners would ask is why?
which you do not ask, but instead practice a type of lets-move-onism by:
“which profoundly angered and alienated the Russian public which went from “what is going on?” to “we are in a fight for our very survival” very quickly and most Russians are now in what I would refer to a “WWII” mode: total warfare until total victory. ”
which you interpret as having happened and is a disadvantageous outcome the catalysing of which started in 2022 not 1991, illustrating
“MrBumble on April 16, 2022 · at 3:29 am EST/EDT
“When you savage Russia’s PR effort,”
” And whoever controls the megaphone controls the message.”
Like almost all here you have a simplistic notion of communication management and how it is facilitated.”
whilst some of your target audience posit:
“DidierF on April 16, 2022 · at 12:39 am EST/EDT
At best, I’m a layman about war and I’m optimistic about my competencies (which would pose the following hypothesis of practitioners to test – Is DidierF “The Saker” choosing a time consistent with plausible belief of transmission in both most Francophone and EST time zones?)
I wish I had an idea about that tactic. I’ll need it and I do not feel lonely on that one.
I also wish I had an idea about the “We create reality” thing. It is pure poison to me and my folks. It has to be countered and I do not know how. (and is this an attempted fishing expedition?)”
In hopes that remain unsatisfied.
Following the practice of tell the truth few will believe you, perhaps the following response might be deemed adequate ?
To improvise/play jazz you don’t only require some inherent comptencies but you need to start from the basics and practice, as you likely did and do in your own profession.
The question that you ask is in the area of “active intelligence” which some can continue to pretend they have adequate facility by not answering your question, whilst those with adequate facility understand that the question that you ask is in the area of “active intelligence” will not answer your question, whilst those seeking to delude you will “answer” your question in a way that does not appear to amateurs as “word salad” – one of the bases of propaganda and its facilitation – this-is-to-diffiicult-to-understand-lets-read-the-pre-masticated-version-since-its-only-an-opinionness.
“Strategic porn” like “Military porn” has facilitity in minimising blowback – except perhaps to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune suffered by asses sitting on laurels – unless read by some would like to be mercenaries who take arms against outrageous fortune in Ukraine and elsewhere, and increase blowback to themselves by being captured and/or killed.
Try to remember the fate of the STASI – gluttony can prove injurious to continued well-being, and that in a “surveillance environment” publication is affected on broadcast/transmission, not by “evading” moderation.
“May not be as great as The Saker impresses”
Upon what datastream using what methodologies does “The Saker” derive “his” impresses?
“Upon what datastream using what methodologies does “The Saker” derive “his” impresses? “
Perhaps a primer to “get you started” ?
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/04/16/us-eu-sacrificing-ukraine-to-weaken-russia-former-nato-adviser/
“Perhaps a primer to “get you started” ?
As one appears to agree
bonbon on April 15, 2022 · at 3:49 pm EST/EDT
whilst one appears to attempt de-emphasise with 16 minutes response time, not necessarily from the same time zone.
The Saker on April 15, 2022 · at 4:05 pm EST/EDT