When I first heard that a coup was in progress in Turkey my first thought was that it was the USA’s way to punish Erdogan for his sudden apology to Russia. Yes, sure, I realized that there were many other possible explanations, but that was the one I was hoping for. I even told my family that if this was a US-backed coup and if Erdogan or his supporters said so, there would be hell to pay for the USA. Less than 24 hour later my hopes were fulfilled:
Turkish Minister Blames US Authorities for Organizing Coup Attempt
Kerry Blasts Turkey for Insinuating that Washington Plotted Coup of Erdogan
Erdogan was undeterred and he went on to publicly declare ““Dear President Obama, I told you this before, arrest Fethullah Gulen or return him to Turkey. You didn’t listen. I call you on you again, after the coup attempt – extradite this man from Pennsylvania to Turkey. If we are strategic partners, do what is necessary,” Erdogan said. He also explicitly called any nation supporting Gulen “an open enemy of Turkey.”
Now we need to remember that Erdogan has a history of zigs followed by zags, so I would not put it past him to warmly embrace Obama in the near future, but I find that unlikely. Why? Simply because there is a lot of indirect evidence that the USA was, indeed, behind this coup. Consider this:
The coup involved a very large number of people. We can get a sense of the magnitude of this coup by looking at the huge purge now taking place in Turkey. According to various sources it includes no less than 6’000 people, many senior officers (including 5 generals and 29 colonels), 2’745 judges and prosecutors. So the first thing we need to ask ourselves is how likely is it that the USA did not know what was being prepared by the coup plotters? I submit that in a country essentially at war, where US forces which are involved in combat operations in nearby Syria and Iraq are deployed and where the US reportedly keeps 50 tactical nuclear weapons, the notion that the USA did not see this coming is far fetched. Turkey is a NATO member state, which in practical terms means that the US has full control over the Turkish military, and we know thanks to Sibel Edmonds that the Turkish deep state has very close ties to the US deep state – and we are to believe that nobody in the USA saw this coming?
Furthermore, when Erdogan says that the USA did not hurry to condemn the coup, he is absolutely correct. In fact, it was rather amusing for me to see that all the western media was indicating that the coup had succeeded, while the Iranians and Russians reported that the coup had failed. If that was case of wishful thinking on both sides, what does it tell us about the wishes?
Now let’s look at the cui bono angle.
Some, including Fethullah Gulen, have suggested that this coup was an a false flag operation by Erdogan himself. And it is true that he declared that this coup was a “”gift from God… because this will be a reason to cleanse our army“. But the reality is that this coup is a huge embarrassment for Erdogan who had already purged the Turkish armed forces many times over and who could not take the risk of having a planned “false flag” turn into the real thing: even General Bekir Ercan Van, the commander of Turkey’s Incirlik airbase, has been detained by Turkish authorities accused of complicity in the attempted coup. So not only did this coup show that Erdogan was hated at the very top level of the Turkish armed forces, but the failure of the coup has now resulted in a huge purge which will tremendously weaken the Turkish armed forces who are involved not only in Syria but also in a bloody civil war against the Kurds. So the notion that Erdogan triggered this coup himself appears very far fetched to me.
Then, of course, there is Russia. And while I wholeheartedly agree that Russia will immensely benefit from this failed coup, I also am convinced that the Russians never had anywhere near the means needed to trigger a coup in Turkey. Neither the Kemalists nor the supporters of Gulen are pro-Russian and Russia simply does not have the kind of access in this major NATO country to trigger military coups.
As for the USA, had the coup succeeded, they could have placed a compliant, and probably far more reliable, military leader at the helm of power in Turkey. Now that the coup failed and now that Erdogan appears to be furious at the USA, the USA is the big loser in this outcome. But had the coup succeeded?
Keep in mind that the war in 08.08.08 and the case of the US “multiple personality disorder” over Syria have shown that there is no unified US foreign policy. There is a White House foreign policy, there is a CIA foreign policy, then there is a Foggy Bottom foreign policy and a Pentagon foreign policy. We even know that there is a separate Neocon foreign policy. Any one of them coup have pushed the coup plotters to take action just like the Neocons pushed Saakashvili to attacked South Ossetia.
Now that the coup has failed, however, the situation has the potential to strongly turned in Russia’s favor and even though the Russians will never trust Erdogan, they are also fully aware of the objective advantages Russian can reap from the current situation. The ultimate success would be to trigger a withdrawal of Turkey from NATO, but I personally doubt that this is possible. A more realistic goal could be to accept that Turkey will nominally remain in NATO, but that at least in Syria Erdogan will accept the Russian-created reality on the ground. The fact that Lavrov and Kerry have agreed to a joint long-term ceasefire whose exact terms are to remain secret indicates to me that the Russians forced the US into concessions which the latter don’t want to be made public (and not the other way around because Moscow holds all the cards now and Kerry has therefore no means to put pressure on Russia). In other words, now that even the USA has basically caved in, at least temporarily, the Turks have no reasons left to try to impose anything on Syria.
The current situation holds a tremendous potential for developments favorable to Russia. I hope that the Russians will apply some creative thinking and make maximal use of this new situation to create a fait accompli on the ground in Syria. The best option for Russia would be to have a reliable and predictable partner in Turkey. Alas, this is not going to happen. The next best option is to have a weak Turkey wasting most of its resources and energy dealing with internal crises. This seems to be what will happen in the foreseeable future. By any measure, this is a good thing for Russia, Syria and, really, the entire region.
The Saker
I am really relieved by your interpretation of the situation. It would appear that even with the empowerment of the neocons that would occur with a Clinton presidency, this would hobble them enough to defuse an immediate crisis.
Yes, you’re right. Erdogan and his Turkish patriots (are) hit(ting) the ZioNATO Empire hard. Since coming to power they took many small steps, but this is a big one.
Like Germany (which has also many good Turkish people), Turkey is pretty much run by the West’s shadow government since WWI (which gave Germany Schücklgruber, and Turkey Atatürk). The Saker makes really good analyses, I think. Which is good, because they still can hardly be found anywhere.
Another real expert is Dr. Kevin Barrett: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/18/zio-coup/ and: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/16/coup-lihop/ Better ignore the ridiculous CIA ‘editor’s notes of the site “Veterans Today”, he uses as a platform.
Saker, thx for this great website and your thoughts on the matter. Still, I am not convinced this time by your analysis. Arresting thousands of judges, policemen, teachers, public servants, soldiers etc. within 36 hours is proof that huge lists for planned arrests MUST have existed already. meaning, either Erdogan knew of the coup in advance. Or it provided him the welcome excuse to shortcut his power grab by silencing any democratic structures that were left at once. That means, he emerges, by far, as the biggest winner from these events. A gift from god? That ‘god’ may well have a very human face and body. the story of a weak, fake coup that was either allowed to happen if not actively promoted by Erdogan’s people, is by far the most logical and credible conclusion. The weakened army isn’t much of a concern at this point, btw for erdogan and in any case, a small price worth paying for establishing his sultanate. Whether this will be bad or good for Russia I do not know. What seems clear is that short-term, Erdogan will massively strengthen his power. Longer-term, the seeds are sown for a considerably weakened democratic society in Turkey with a high risk that the country becomes yet another middle eastern country ruled by a dictator (Erdogan and/or his successors) and with growing influence of religious (islamist) structures. Which ultimately, would mean a total extinction of the Ataturk republic and which will not bode well for either Europe or Russia.
As for the Turkey-US relations, there won’t be much of a change imho. Turkey is way too weak, financially, to risk a major conflict with the US. Given the low level of foreign exchange reserves , Turkey has no means to withstand even a slight onslaught via the forex markets.
Fox – thank you for your incisive analysis. It makes absolute sense to anyone who knows even a little of the psyche of both historical and modern Turkey.
Just another day of chaos, par for the course of late. On the heels of Brexit, political upheaval in the UK, the rise of populist movements through the EU, NATO blustering about in the Baltics, the truck rampage in Nice (pity Bono survived), and what may well be a Manson prophecy of “Helter Skelter” in the USA, it seems that the world is experiencing a tectonic geopolitical shift. Engineered, planetary alignment, pure chance – I have no idea. Expect the unexpected!
True words. But we are fortunate to have a man of steel and that can think clearly regardless of level of stress and complexity, Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин.
Be a judo super macho helps after all.
Indeed! Although “man of steel” may have shivers running up some spines, I agree. I really have to try and restrain myself from idolizing him (but why not?) – incredible patience, intelligence and ability to see the “big picture”. An actor, not a reactor, thank God. Interesting to see what’s happening in Turkey, the US, UK, EU, KSA, et. al – all those that sought to drag down Syria and Russia with it – their houses are burning now.
Let loose, have a toast instead.
Saker,
Thanks for sharing your intelligence background to this tangled web. Alas, the four potential U.S. Government “agencies” that you deduce are behind the coup do not seem to me to represent the interests of the average American Citizen. Many Americans would welcome Turkey’s expulsion and an U.S. exit from NATO!
LOL.
NATO is an American sock-puppet.
Would the American overlord “exit” from his own puppet that he uses to subjugate…sorry “defend” Europe with.
“Would the American overlord “exit” from his own puppet…”
If Mr Trump is to be believed, it would because it is too expensive to keep NATO (in precious cash as well as in what George Washington warned against, “involvement in foreign entanglements”).
Siotu
Don Trump is like most American nationalists.
He stands reality on its head to portray America as the “victim” in any scenario–and disguise the predatory behavior of the United Snakes of America.
One hidden reason for NATO’s existence is America can use it to compel the Eurovassals to purchase American weapons systems. The obscene profits from these bloated US weapons system flow back to the good old USA.
Americans of course conveniently cover up this minor little issue and whine about the costs of “protecting” Europe–much like a Mafia Don would complain about the cost of maintaining a protection racket, even as he extracts his weekly tribute.
And I am sure that the American Empire has as much intention as the Nazi Third Reich in peacefully curbing its imperial “entanglements.”
Perhaps.
Perhaps not.
Don’t forget how quickly the USSR imploded. Same appears on the horizon for the USSA. Take a look at it. Right now the US Federal govt has US$222 trillion in unfunded liabilities. That is unable to ever be repaid let alone serviced. To give an idea of how serious that debt is, consider what it means. Here are some examples- no more social security payments, no more medicare, no medicaid. Now when it becomes clear to the little people that these lavish inducements (luxuries they collectively never got anywhere near to paying for) are going to disappear, then what constitutes US society and culture will drastically alter. There will be no going back.
The question then becomes whether or not there is offensive war or not. Perhaps there could be a civil war instead. Perhaps there could be draconian crack-downs on civil liberties within the USA. Perhaps the USA does as the FSA report of some years ago suggested, breaks up into two or more new territories/ political entities/countries. Fortunately in the case of the USSR there was not an aggressive war initiated. One hopes that the same can be said when change falls on USA (and also for Europe when its time comes- which is not that far away).
Meanwhile, Mr Trump, certainly a nationalist, perceives the dire problem (or portions of it), as do many of the US population. He, as a nationalist, believes it can be solved. He seems to consider getting out of NATO, or at the least reforming it, as viable. That NATO makes some people rich and powerful does not mean that it is in the interests of the country that such arrangements continue. The USA is a large country with several competing political interests and the pro-NATO group is merely one of them. Mt Trump is not of this group. His personal interests lie elsewhere. Mr Trump seems to consider that NATO is merely another unaffordable boondoggle which is too expensive to operate any longer and merely serves as a vehicle to get the USA embroiled in international entanglements where it ought not to be. He seems to consider this not to be in the countries interests and not in his either.
It remains encouraging that Mr Trump states that he backs dialogue, negotiation, deal-making and formal agreement with President Putin as the way to operate rather than the ad hominem, threats and ultimately violence of Mrs Clinton. Will Mr Trump be as good as his word? As was well said by a well-known Chinese leader (chocolate fish if you know who he was), it is too early to tell.
Siotu
Social Security is well funded and the taxpayers in the US receive no handouts they have not paid for. The 1% are stealing their money.
Stein Bauge
You’re kidding, right?
Social security, as with the rest of the US government, is technically insolvent. It sits atop a pile of IOUs issued by the US Treasury. Good luck with getting paid out of that!
Prediction: social security will collapse. If you are already in your 50s the chances are near certain you are going to witness the collapse. There will be default. It may be by failing to keep up with price of living increases (happening already), by partial defaults (introducing means testing and denying universiality, by changing taxation regulation), by stealing personal retirement savings (nationalisation of same or by changing taxation regulation), by raising age of entitlement, by forcing retired people into annuities (with automatic zero balance on death), by reduction quanta of ss cheques, by capping total payout to individuals, by bouncing ss cheques or by failing to issue currency to beneficiaries etc etc etc etc etc. There are plenty of ways this whole Ponzi is going to deflate. Count on most of them occurring on the way down.
There is no huge pool of real savings available to fund social security payments to all the, soon to be retiring, boomers. It was a con. More fool anyone who planned a future believing that a government was there to look after them in their dotage. Still, the government will respect them in the morning. Promise.
There is going to be great suffering and penury from this shockingly dishonest scheme. It always was a fraud, right from inception. Nothing about it has changed.
Siotu
Ever since FDR started Social Security, the corporate crazies who want to see old people starving to death and lacking shelter have spread this layer of BS. Its very old BS, and it smells like it.
They’ve always claimed that Social Security is insolvent because it doesn’t have a big pile of cash behind it. Instead its always been funded by the payments made by workers today going straight to fund pensioners.
Social Security is and always has been on a solid financial footing. The claims that its going broke are either total BS or exaggerations of charts that show its going to run out of money decades into the future. Of course, if you look at these estimates closely, a very small change in economic assumptions makes it look very solvent. So, these arguments rely on the assumption that people who can’t predict the economy in the first half of next year are somehow dead-eye solid and accurate in predicting it decades from now.
Of course, logic doesn’t really apply to the people who listen to the news media put out by the bankers. Behind it all are people who’ve always hated the idea that somehow old people might have enough money to eat and to get heat in the winter and, omg, atrocity upon atrocity, medical care. After all, that would be money so much better spend paying for an elaborate wedding of a bankers daughter, or to be stolen by crooked defense contractors, so they constantly campaign that Social Security is ‘going broke’ and of course that it can only be saved by either being completely killed off or turned over to the tender mercies of the bankers as yet another profit center.
Nonce
Deny it all you like, but the facts demonstrate that social security was a gigantic Ponzi right from inception. When it was about to be introduced the President was informed that it could not survive since the benefits would tend, over time, to cost more than the scheme would take in contributions (you can get some actuarial tables and do a few simple calcs to demonstrate it for yourself- it is sooooo obvious). He knew, but, no matter, the scheme was deliberately designed to be populist and appealing (look, a free lunch!). It was a crude theft that he went and conned the populace with. All goes to show not only that fools and their money are easily parted, but that they want to be fooled.
As bad as it was that the scheme was unsustainable (the magnitude of unfunded liabilities would in time grow to dwarf the contributions) it gets worse in that the contributions were used to purchase Fed government debt. The contributions were then consumed in various govt operations such as welfare payouts and all manner of bribes to voters (pork). The contibutions are all gone now- consumed, spent, liquidated. Meanwhile all that remains are huge piles of IOUs from the Federal govt. If you really believe these promissory notes are worth anything and that they will ever be properly repaid, then I have a bridge to sell you.
Quoting, “They’ve always claimed that Social Security is insolvent because it doesn’t have a big pile of cash behind it. Instead its always been funded by the payments made by workers today going straight to fund pensioners.”
The process is very much like borrowing short to lend long or, in insurance, using current premium income to meet claims directly (in the absence of well invested reserves generating productive income of their own this approach results in collapse). In a Ponzi, such as social security, you absolutely require that the population of active contributors is far is greater than is the population of beneficiaries and, most important, that the population of contributors is far wealthier, producing and earning more than did their predecessors (who are now beneficiaries). In the situation of social security the population of beneficiaries is growing while the population of active contributors is falling. Further, the contributors are not producing or earning more than their predecessors in real terms. They are not earning and contributing anywhere near enough to be able to support the magnitude of contributions required to keep the scheme afloat. And the pile of Fed govt IOUs just aint going to do it! There is no back-up, just the hope that the contributors can be ever more heavily mulcted to keep things going for just a wee bit longer.
Quoting, “Social Security is and always has been on a solid financial footing.”
No. It never was on solid financial footing and it certainly isn’t presently.
As an aside. If it was so good then it wouldn’t be necessary to coerce anyone to join by compulsion and threat.
Quoting, “The claims that its going broke are either total BS or exaggerations of charts that show its going to run out of money decades into the future.”
It already has run out. Putting aside the crude accounting sleight of hand presently being used to disguise the situation pertaining to the social security accounts, break even has passed and the account is already out of currency. It is being rather artlessly propped up.
By the way if a private insurer tried to cook the books as has been done in this instance, he’d be prosecuted for fraud and rightfully so.
Quoting, “Of course, if you look at these estimates closely, a very small change in economic assumptions makes it look very solvent.”
Don’t make arbitrary assumptions, use real economic fact. Base your calculations on reality and you’ll soon find out that insolvency and failure is definitely in the future for social security.
Quoting, “So, these arguments rely on the assumption that people who can’t predict the economy in the first half of next year are somehow dead-eye solid and accurate in predicting it decades from now.”
It is indeed a demanding task to accurately and with some certainty predict what the economy is going to look like in the next six months. Few do it well (although some do it right nearly every time and it is well worth finding these people and paying deliberate attention when you do). On the other hand it is much easier, easier to the point of triviality, to predict exactly how a Ponzi scheme is going to end up.
Quoting, “Of course, logic doesn’t really apply to the people who listen to the news media put out by the bankers.”
Agree. You are right about this.
As homework, you might like to take a look at who were the characters that created, designed, drafted the legislation and regulation, then implemented the social security scheme in the first instance. Ask, what was the profession of these people and where did they gain their qualifications and career experience prior to being drafted into government “service”.
Quoting, “…..it can only be saved by either being completely killed off or turned over to the tender mercies of the bankers as yet another profit center.”
It can’t be saved. In the end the only way to save for your future is to plan for your dotage and save and invest for the future yourself, on your own account. Anyone who believes that the government is going to do it for them is behaving in a reckless and idiotic fashion. If you think government gives a shit about you and your situation in advanced age, then I have not only a bridge to sell you but the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State Building as well- going cheap at only US$10,000. But now!
Siotu
I knew that before Saker officially confirmed.
I would even add that Turkey eventually will withdraw from NATO, but not yet.
Your analysis/thoughts is always much appreciated Saker.
Regarding Erdogan. He will go where the grass is greenest. It is up to Russia?China to provide greener grass than the US. Trust doesn’t enter into it.
My thought, too. Erdo has this gigantic ego, and I believe he has no problem letting his country become weak, if only he can be the leader.
And he wants to be in the winning team, to get some “glamour” from association with world leaders. Earlier he thought that US was on top, and he also thought that he could handle the Kurd issue by force (and with the help of US).
I think by now he reluctantly has to admit that there is a “change of guard”, and that quite soon Russia and her allies will be the “new sheriff in town”. So he just don’t want to be associated with the losers, even if it means breaking his country down.
Maybe Russia has suggested an intelligent way to handle the Kurds, an offer that is good enough for Erdogan personally?
The grass may be looking greener in other pastures.
Certainly that is why the British elite dumped the EU in order to throw in their lot with China.
I’m thinking that after having accused NATO of having been behind the coup, Erdogan may begin to turn its back on Europe and start to cozy up to the SCO as well.
As an aside, who benefits from a coup? Washington comes to mind.
Who benefits from a failed coup? Clearly Moscow.
The coup was a sloppy affair which suggests it was hastily organised. What if Moscow had gotten wind of it? What if they threw a spanner in the works? It would bring Erdogan into their tent, bring an end to the Empires vicious assault on Syria, bring Turkey into the SCO orbit, and deal a devastating blow to NATO in the area that is most important to them, and they are weakest.
This kind of strategic win is where you reveal your cards. If the Russians had something awesome up their sleeve, this would be the time to use it.
Zerohedge is reporting that the plotters had Erdogans escape plane in their sights but somehow failed to fire. Makes one go hmmmmm.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-plot-insight-idUSKCN0ZX0Q9
“At least two F-16s harassed Erdogan’s plane while it was in the air and en route to Istanbul. They locked their radars on his plane and on two other F-16s protecting him,” a former military officer with knowledge of the events told Reuters.
“Why they didn’t fire is a mystery,” he said.
Read Sorcha Faal for the complete story of what you correctly deciphered:
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2073.htm
bp
Russia and China should welcome Turkey’s geopolitical entreaties just as much as they should welcome any “friendly” gestures from America or the West in general. That is, with extreme prejudice and suspicion.
A snake cannot change its nature, though it may change its outer skin/veneer. The Anglo-Americans and Turkey exemplify this reality.
A recent article by Wayne Madsen documents how the United States and Turkey have been protecting and supporting Chechen and Uighur “moderate” terrorists in Syria/Iraq as proxies to wage future terror wars against Russia and China.
Let’s see if Turkey ceases its backing of these terror groups–if it really has broken away from Uncle Scam.
CIA and Turks created caliphate to launch attacks on Russia and China
http://katehon.com/1227-cia-and-turks-created-caliphate-to-launch-attacks-on-russia-and-china.html
Well, indeed it looks like a clusterfuck.
The ‘choban’ coup in Armenia (as an Armenian friend called it) led more credence to the thesis that the volte-face of Erdogan was so ominous that the “Foggy Minds” got scared out of their wits and rushed into a precipitous action. Perhaps the aim was just the assassination of Erdogan.
And I am sure that the Russians “tipped off” Erdogan. I wonder whether the Russian know what happens in Turkey better than the Turks!
Erdogan said to be target of assassination attempt during failed coup:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/erdogan-said-to-be-target-of-assassination-attempt-during-failed-coup/
And yet, not really. Turkish fighters operated by participants of the coup were in the air. They bombed buildings in Ankara. And yet, we are supposed to believe that Erdogan flew the length of the country, at high altitude in full view of ground based and plane-based radars, with transponders on identifying himself, after getting on TV via phone app to organize opposition to the coup, and do to it in complete safety. There are even reports that coup-fighter planes had him targeted but did not fire. Certainly, Erdogan was a complete sitting duck while making that flight. And if nothing else, the fact that he’d put himself in that position showed that he didn’t really feel that he was in danger. He certainly felt that a PR appearance in Istanbul was worth being a wide-open sitting duck to an assassination. So, just how serious was anyone about killing him?
If it was not a staged coup, you might want to explain this:
@nntaleb
Oh, and @nntaleb has a history lesson
And then ask yourself: How long would it take to make a list of 2,745 judges and prosecutors that you think were traitors? Is it really farfetched to claim that the list already existed for quite some time (as did the PatriotAct long before 911)?
My guess: We just witnessed the Reichstag-Fire (27-Feb-1933), turkish style. So, there has been a fire at the Reichstag set by Der Führer’s opponents, soon to be followed by The Night of The Long Knives… Interesting, to say the least.
Oh, and remember this from Jan-2016:
I smell a NATO troll behind this post – GO AWAY ! WE ARE NOT FOR SALE !
You are right, this This: is very, very strange: 2 rebel F16s had a lock on Erdogan’s plane but didn’t fire! Yet they bombed Parliament.” was published by Reuters.
‘Why they didn’t fire is a mystery,’ former military officer says
It proofs nothing, however timing and source of revelation is more inconvenient than a fact.
Irish Times (Rebel jets had Erdogan’s aircraft in their sights)
Routers (At height of Turkish coup bid, rebel jets had Erdogan’s plane in their sights)
.
.
.
You name the rest
You must be a great researcher. Had you followed the provided link @nntaleb, you would have read immediately via @ReutersUK. Try to follow the old russian maxim “Doveryai, no proveryai!” (Trust, but verify), and not your implied heuristic: everything from Reuters must be distraction/disinfo/propaganda… Do yourself a favour and read Pepe Escobar’s take, especially his narrative on Erdogan’s Gulfstream 4, flight number TK8456 and ask yourself if this makes sense. I quote from his article:
Perhaps it is time to ignore some proverbs when comes to Western media.
Would you waste time, to trust this:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-moscow-rebels-ukraine-building-dirty-bomb-help-russian-scientists-1513667
and then verify.
Since Empire’s war on Russia started, the rules has change.
IGNORE, but READ.
Linked post is from August 2015. Almost a year old.
No doubt you can pull the trigger all you like on these USA flying toys but there is only a ‘boom’ if someone in US Command Central says it’s ok to launch the cracker…
You are not quite getting the problem. There are disagreements & there is trolling. Latter is unconditional to content. Conclusion: You farted. Ad Hominem is not a legitimate heuristic. You would surely pass the Inverse Turing Test.
I would never do that. I tend to respect and preserve public decency,
but you did it on someone’s turf.
And stop using your formatting on grant scale, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t, you’re giving away yourself.
Get over it, you lost!
I mean in Turkey.
Now that business with the F-16 not firing on the President’s aircraft is very intriguing. Perhaps they didn’t know he was on board. Perhaps they were told not to shoot at civil aircraft but to continue with their mission. Perhaps there was some high-level horse-trading going on between Erdogan and various players.
Siotu
You have a very good nose, Marshal. Any reference to Hitler, Reichstag-Fire, in the interpretation of current events is the give away of the troll (possibly Hasbara).
“How long would it take to make a list of 2,745 judges and prosecutors that you think were traitors?”
True. But there’s an even more fundamental point. For a coup to succeed, you need military people, and their leaders need to be, on the one hand, numerous enough to succeed, but on the other hand, small enough to maintain operational secrecy.
Why military coup leaders would need even 1 judge or prosecutor, never mind 2,745 of them, is a mystery to me. Do Turkish judges and prosecutors moonlight as tank commanders??
I’m frankly shocked that the Saker would not mention such an obvious problem with his analysis.
About how quickly “the list” appeared — it doesn’t say anything about anything. There could have been a list, all national intelligence agencies have many lists for differnt situations. And if there was no list before, it is not surprising that they just round up a lot of poeple to prevent any “enemy” to leave the country.
I mean, the fact that so many was arrested so fast points to the opposite of knowing beforehand, that is: they just take everybody first, and then sort them out later. If it was really planned, I guess the list would be shorter and more precise. (and here one could of course argue that arresting many was just done to make it look like they were surprised….)
To know, we would have to wait until we see how many of these 6000+ are released more or less immediately.
(I think that the turkish intelligence got info from the Russians that there was a mutiny brewing, but they might not have had a complete list of every presumptive participant in the coup attemt, completely excluding all innocent. If I was in charge of the Intelligence dep., I would also first arrest “more than needed” to be on the safe side)
I agree that “it doesn’t say anything about anything”. However, Saker has inferred that the size of the coup was large; so large that the US must have known about it beforehand. :
“The coup involved a very large number of people. We can get a sense of the magnitude of this coup by looking at the huge purge now taking place in Turkey. According to various sources it includes no less than 6’000 people, many senior officers (including 5 generals and 29 colonels), 2’745 judges and prosecutors. So the first thing we need to ask ourselves is how likely is it that the USA did not know what was being prepared by the coup plotters? ”
I have no idea if the US knew of the coup, beforehand, but inferring that from the alleged large size of the coup smacks of fallacious reasoning.
As has already been pointed out, playing safe would entail arresting way too many people.
There is a shortlist of the usual suspects or targets which will be probably 1/10th the size of the big one.
I don’t think the matter of eliminating the 2,745 jurists negates The Saker’s analysis. That Erdogan knew he had opposition in the legal system and that wanted them out of the way is no surprise. Perhaps he intended to go after them at some point anyway and now this is the big opportunity to do it. Whatever the case, he has demonstrated his keenness to consolidate total power for some time.
It would not have taken long for the list to be assembled. Erdogan has plenty of acolytes and functionaries to do the task. All they need do is list any jurist who is not known as an overt ally and active supporter. Easy enough. Anyone who is not a mate gets his or her name added to the list. Stalin demonstrated how to do this sort of wet work in the not too distant past. Study his approach to see how a modern bureaucracy can be employed to eliminate the class enemies! The list could be prepared in a few hours.
So now come the purges. There is the likelyhood that there will be death penalties meted out after new legislation is written and implemented. Also various people going missing, accidents while in detention, suicides, all that sort of thing.
Turkey does not have a great future.
Siotu
Tegularius wrote “I mean, the fact that so many was arrested so fast points to the opposite of knowing beforehand, that is: they just take everybody first, and then sort them out later.”
Note that for Ergenekon 275 people were persecuted (they were in the end freed as Erdogan lost the process): Erdogan likes mass arrests and obviously this is more about getting people out of the way and than about punishing people who really were involved in the coup.
The unexplained point for me is that the foot soldiers of the coup claim that they were unaware that they were taking part in a coup and that it was presented to them as just another of many routine drills. They are also reported to have been overwhelmingly young, nervous conscripts. Their very quick surrender to an unarmed mob tends to back this assertion, IMO.
I cannot understand a professional military command undertaking anything as risky as a military coup with a less than experienced and committed soldiery and a rock solid plan to take out the head of state first.
The Turkish military has hard-won experience of conducting several successful coups in the past, they must know what is the absolute minimum required for even a chance to succeed. To proceed without that absolute minimum is tantamount to suicide.
Just a hint. If you used a flashing font, it would convert your post from merely annoying to totally unreadable.
I think you are spot on. I also think it is an Erdogan instigated coup d’etat. Because, apart from the F16’s there is something else very strange.
Erdogan’s airplane headed for Istanbul. But the airport in Istanbul, and the bridges, were supposedly in the hands of the military.
So how did Erdogan know there was no risk going to Istanbul?
Another thing to mention is, apart from the ready list of conspirer’s a few hours after the coup, that the soldiers all thought it was an excercise.
And normally during a coup the first thing you do is catch the leader of the country. Nothing like that first, they first took bridges etc…
It smells…
Nevertheless, that Erdogan is blaming the US is good for Russia.
I doubt very much that this event was staged by Erdogan. First it would be like shooting yourself in the stomach so as to put the blame on your enemy. THere are far less risky ways to deal with Erdogans opposition. Besides that opposition has not actually been able to stop his consolidation of power. Erodogan was unchallenged politically in Turkey before the coup. Why would he need a false coup to get rid of the remaining opposition? There are much easier ways of doing this.
As to the F-16s not firing on Erdogans plane, we don’t know why. We actually know very little about what happened around Erdogan during the coup. Maybe they got cold feet. Many an assassin has gotten cold feet when confronted by their target. Maybe they were jammed. Actually what is more supportive of your theory is not that the rebel F16s did not fire on Erdogan, but that the F-16s protecting Erdogan did not fire on the rebels. But that can be explained by the use of jamming devices on Erdogan’s plane. Or by the incident having occurred late in the coup when the rebels were already aware it was failing.
As to the thousands being arrested, this does not mean that they were in anyway involved in the coup. These are probably mainly coup sympathizers, supporters of Fethullah Gulen and judicial opponents of Erdogan whom he wants off the bench when the trials begin.
Well, Saker, I am probably too forgiving. But I have a dream that even a man as foolish as Erdogan can grow a bit of common sense and character from his association with quality people – such as the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and those Syrians with whom Turkey has been a “brotherly people” for 1,000 years (to quote Erdogan in 2011).
Kadyrov used that term “brotherly people” yesterday about Turkey. I note that Putin used it about the Ukrainians. What is the power of being around righteous people, almost as family? Strong, I think. All human beings can change, and do, usually in terms of the things and people around them. Even Erdogan may change. He may mature. He may become stable.This is the prime quality of the people he will now increasingly associate with.
We live in a cold place, we in the west, where any notion of brotherhood fails to enter our scheming. We ignore it at our peril. I have some hope that the “demonstration effect” and the new peer pressure means that Turkey too will rise up in its pride as a nation, as Russia has, and walk the true and straight path.
I suspect the time spent in turmoil will be very short. The benefits standing in the wings, with pipelines, silk roads and the freshness that comes from renunciation of western decadence, all point to a nation too busy prospering and looking forward to get stuck in the mire.
I traveled to Turkey once, some years ago. I left the country feeling that the Turks were my brothers. I will be delighted to see them enjoy life, standing tall as the traditional gateway to Asia, and a giant check on NATO expansion to the east.
I agree with everything, except that the US was “behind” the coup. I suspect they they knew, or at least had rumors that it was possible. And they certainly would have benefited by it. But then we ourselves have said countless times “when will the military overthrow Erdogan” or “I wish the military would overthrow Erdogan” (when he was totally at odds with Russia). As for the large number of arrests. I see that as Erdogan deciding to get rid in one swoop of everyone of his enemies. Along the lines of Hitler’s “night of the long knives”. When he used the Rohm affair to strike down many of his opponents. Whether they even knew Rohm or not. For Erdogan it was a “gift from God” (or more likely Satan). He can blame anyone that is a danger to him ,as “a coup plotter”,and jail them (at the least).Its of course way to early to be sure of anything for certain.Hopefully we will know something more concrete in the future. By if I was Turkish and opposed Erdogan’s rule,now would be the time to leave Turkey. That I can pretty much say for certain.
Dear The Saker,
I believe that anyone with reason, logic and truthful questioning of the situation, who conducts a critical analysis of the data and intelligence will come to the same conclusion as you, Scott and Andrew Korybko, just to name a few.
With enough knowledge and experience on the Turkish situation prior to the coup, this conclusion can be made within hours if not within minutes of the coup.
I am in no way a fan of Al Jazeera and I am one of its greatest critics since it is also part of the Mass Media…….but being an Arabic speaker, I can tell you that Al Jazeera Arabic is embedded in all major Turkish cities and has significant ties with the Erdogan regime.
While TRT, CNN turk and others were being literally taken off the air by army officers participating in the coup (often making helicopter landings on rooftops)…….Al Jazeera Arabic was broadcasting from multiple mobile locations undeterred.
It seems there is a strong connection between Qatar and the Erdogan regime in this regard. I am actually very surprised now, there seems to be a strong resurgence of Arabic-Turkish ties and connections on a political, social, cultural and religious level…….and I mention “resurgence”, because Turkey seems to be returning to its Islamic roots on a societal and cultural level. This is something unprecedented since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
As I now write these paragraphs, I am having a gut feeling (and it is just a feeling right now), that the Turkish people will somehow form a bridge (political and strategic) between re-surging Orthodox Russia and the Islamic world in general and the Arabic world in specific. I do not know exactly how this will develop, what the time frame will be and what steps will be taken, but it is a strong feeling I am getting.
If what I am feeling makes any sense, it could have the potential of a possible realignment of a number of Sunni Islamic countries towards Russia, with Turkey at the head of this realignment.
And God knows best….
As for the strategic situation on the ground in Turkey…..The coup was pretty large as you mentioned. However it was not large enough, since Erdogan has a significant base within the armed forces, intelligence services and within the national police intelligence.
The Gülen movement is well known for having connections within the Turkish judicial system and the police force. The movement being previously an ally of Erdogan, had actually helped Erdogan against his secular military enemies through the police force. For me personally, I have not seen any indicting proof that the Gülen movement conspired with the secular military officers. However, it is not impossible…..
Russian intelligence are always one step ahead of US-NATO intelligence, because the US has been playing an old game over and over again like a broken record, and the intelligence and policy of the US is not united as you mention.
Russian officials and services have the opportunity with their unified wisdom and capabilities to pull countries out of the US-Zionist-NATO alliance….just like crack/heroine addicts enter rehab.
What the corrupt and crumbling Soviet Union could not do back in the days, Russia can and will do now….
The coming months will be crucial for Turkey and its relationship with the US, EU, Russia and the rest of the Middle-East.
Harry_Red, you may never read this but I’d like to say that I greatly value all of the thoughts you have worked to make clear in this comment. It’s worthy of an entire essay – but in comment threads, we do what we can in the time and space available.
I won’t try to restate what you said, but I very much want to remember it. So, in shorthand, in my own words, I’ll remember that Turkey is a natural leader for the region whenever it sails on the tides of history.
As such, following the leap that Turkey has already made to change its course and follow the currents of a superior reality, many may now come to feel misguided in their previous efforts, and shift their own course.
Even the Qataris. They are corrupted and sinister, but if I read you right, you suggest that even they can reform, given the example of those they associate with. I believe in reformation without any limits. I thought I was a dreamer but you outmatch me in scale. But a dream can happen. We shall see.
I agree with you in three more things.
1. Gulen was not a player in the coup but history demands the end of Gulen and now is a good time for this.
2. Russian intelligence is in its own right a game-changer, and must not be left out of the analysis at any level.
3. The next few months are crucial.
Grieved….thanks for your comment.
I actually read most if not all the comments in the Saker blog since I believe it is a very interesting continuation of the original post. Most comments are of high to very high quality adding analyses and other information.
My observations have indeed taught me that nothing in politics and geo-strategic alignments are static, but instead always changing and shifting (with a few exceptions). This gives hope that change is always possible and that change can lead to good if the right conditions are met.
This change can come from few people or many, it can be gradual or very sudden…
A few princes here, a son in-law there….it can snow-ball and change the course of an entire nation…..Nothing is impossible.
You don’t seriously believe that everyone being arrested by Erdogan or purged from the government by Erdogan were actually involved in the coup?
Dear saker,
What a week it’s been.
Terrorism in Nice
Coup in Turkey
I was not sure whether this was a false flag or perhaps erdogan found out about it and let it happen – as he had prepared to defeat it
We shall see by his behaviour over the coming days
He could use this as the oportunity to pivot away from his disastrous policies, as the focus will be on internal issues or he could double down on support for terrorist on Syria
He gets a lot of supper from hard line Islamists
Also Saker
Could more be said about the Kerry visit.
Alexander Mecouris on Duran said talks with putin failed And all indications are that the meeting was extremely heated. Peskov was angry after and abrupt with the press.
So I am curious as to what was agreed with Lavrov.
What Is the context on the ground – why would Russia trust him? The secrecy allows the U.S. to spin this negative for Russia
Thank you
Comment by a turkish civilian being interviewed on rt…..gangs of faschists going around creating trouble seizing people they want-Erdo surely has been inspired by ukraine. Eu calls for respect of human rights is a joke of course when so many judges have been arrested and of course we have no idea how many arrests are justified.So , nato will end up with faschist Turkish member(with now wahhabi inclinations?) leading the agenda in the middle east?Does that suit or please Saudi(I wonder what the current state of relations are with them another commentator has suggested Turkey could leave nato, but then Could saudi and turkey be acting together in somekind of pincer attack?).Does that suit or please nato who would be exposed as weak and vulnerable to division, that is Erdo’ position of leverage now especially if Trump wins and wants to halt further muslims coming to usa?Is Erdo still creating his own caliphate or inspiring others long held dream of re-establishment Turkoman empire(how about countries further away Uzbekistan etc etc, reports of things going on in Almaty this morning for example but not sure what antiterrorist operation)—-what success he has now, “supporting “isis, getting the Syrian oil to build on, uniting Turks wherever they are maybe, showing up nato and eu political weakness certainly.H ow are the Balkan countries responding to events one wonders.
Could this be a sucker honey trap for russia of course because of higher strategic aims by nato to confront,neutralise or denigrate rus by any means,humiliate VP and Erdo could turncoat and show he is “smarter than the average bear”so to speak, would the turkish religion be at odds with the Chechen islam could this be a sticky point should there be further raprochement? Has the Sukhoi plane been payed for?Erdo going to finish off PKK by any means?
I still feel there is a whole lot of charade going on…..??Erdo proving he is a man of action socially connected using modern media(which of course can be used for propganda other motives of course when you have convinced followers and his peronal ratings are heading up to VP’s levels?)…..in the face of a moribound Eu……calls by Hollande this am to eject radical muslims could be used as a rallying point by Erdo followers to confront eu,consolidate Turkish workers in Germany into a politically effective force maybe(can Germany survive without Turkish workers?) Using EU human rights isues against europe itself and “home”populations who are increasingly? concerned about their muslim populations.T urkish diaspora to become revitalised and they will have a voice now surely, they will ask to be listened to .All tnose brand new turkish flags being waved one could think they were mass produced in advance.
Too many questions- will see if crosstalk this morning is useful.
But I feel very trepidatious.Turbulennt times.
If it was Russia that tipped off Erdogan and saved his worthless hide, and given Turkey’s real need to have decent relations with Russia, it seems unlikely that Erdogan will simply forgive and forget. With the talk of the missing 42 helicopters, it may be that some suicide mission against Erdogan is still in the works. After all, it is hard for the hubris-intoxicated neocons to give up their indispensable illusions of grandeur, even after it turned out that the Turkish people were not rejoicing in the streets when the coup was underway.
Assuming that Erdogan will indeed survive, the US will attempt to pretend that nothing has happened. The NY Times, surely on orders from above, is already falling over itself to praise the teflon sultan. Nothing to see here, move along, let us get back to the business of destruction and Russian baiting.
It would be nice to see Turkey close its borders to ISIS (wouldn’t that make the Saudis and certain members of the deep state happy?) Time for a distraction . . . how about a big Kiev offensive in Donbass?
What caught my intention is that the mainstream Western media have readily embraced the theory Erdogan organized the coup himself.
What a surprise.
Regarding the coup itself, reading some previous texts here and elsewhere, I think that the possibility US structures backed (but probably not organized) the coup, and the possibility that Erdogan knew something was going on and let the door open to his enemies, are not mutually exclusive.
If it was Washington, this a serious blunder and a good evidence of its failing hegemony. But we should probably fear quick retribution. After Putin embarrassed the US in Syria, Ukraine happened.
how many helicopters does it take to move 400 tonnes of gold?
Ahh, good question. I don’t think that Turkey has a much as that (400 tonnes) so the job is very doable. Now if that is what has happened, then the coupe makes a great deal more sense from the view of an outside influencer. I wonder if your suspicion is correct.
Siotu
The Coup was a CIA/Mossad OP. Erdogan is an Anti-Zionist and secret supporter of Islamists but he has always had to hide it because Turkey has strict laws against Islamist as the government has to be secular. Erdogan found out that his military which is run by secret societies such as Freemasons lied to him and set him up when they shot down the Russian plane over Syria.
This Masonic secret societies in the military called “Gulen Movement” have been trying to depose Erdogan for years.
Several weeks ago Erdogan sent a heartfelt letter to Putin apologizing for shooting down the Russian plane and saying that Turkey wants to be Russia’s ally and partner. The very next day the CIA/Mossad/Gulen movement struck at Istanbul airport killing 40 and wounding 230. The attack was a warning to Erdogan to not switch sides and side with Putin.
A few weeks later they stage this coup to depose Erdogan but they failed because Russia’s intelligence agencies gave Erdogan information about the coup before it happened and the coup leaders were not able to arrest him. Then they bombed the hotel where he was staying but Russian intelligence was able to warn Erdogan in time and he escaped. Erdogan has switched sides he is now rounding up all the Gulen Movement/Masons who are agents of the CIA and Mossad and Putin is giving him intel to help him.
Turkey is now with ‘Russia and Erdogan owes his life to Putin. Turkey will now leave NATO and the EU and Israel has gained a new enemy.
________
Gamechanger: The day before the coup attempt Turkey expressed that it wanted to normalize relations with Russia and Syria: : http://www.euronews.com/2016/07/14/turkey-hints-at-major-policy-shift-towards-syria/
Gamechanger:
Washington Times 4 juli 2016:
“After apologizing profusely and kissing Putin’s ring, Turkey now says that Russia can use its famous Incirlik air base, a significant facility in NATO’s southern flank. Is Turkey still part of NATO?. …..The statement came from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu during his interview with TRT channel. The top diplomat has acknowledged that Moscow might be given the green light to use Turkey’s Incirlik air base to engage Islamic State targets in Syria.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/4/nato-member-turkey-sells-out-vladimir-pu
About GULEN:
RT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwlYEWb7diQ
FLASHBACK 2010 MUST-read artikel:
“An Islamic Armed Fortress Emerges in the Pocono Mountains…Why has the federal government opted to turn a blind eye to Gulen and his mountain fortress?Why have Gulen’s madrassahs been kept under the radar screen of Homeland Security? Why have the CIA and FBI allowed Gulen to wreak havoc and topple secular governments without interruption or intervention?” –
Exclusive: World’s ‘Most Dangerous Islamist’ Alive, Well, and Living in Pennsylvania
Read more: Family Security Matters http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.5921/pub_detail.asp#ixzz4Ef3OoJ90
FLASHBACK 2013: The Political Future Of Turkey May Be Decided On This Quiet Road In Rural Pennsylvania….Critics of the Gulen movement say the group’s vast influence and lack of clear structure are a threat to democracy — earlier this year the New York Times wrote a “culture of fear” surrounding the group led to many to refuse to be interviewed about them for fear of reprisals (one reporter who wrote a book on Gulen later found himself in jail).
http://www.businessinsider.com/fethullah-gulens-pennsylvania-home-2013-12?r=US&IR=T /
FLASHBACK 2014: Gülen-inspired schools are the largest charter network in the U.S. and receive approximately $150 million a year in taxpayer money.
http://truthinmedia.com/exclusive-fbi-whistleblower-and-teacher-expose-islamic-gulen-mo
FLASHBACK 2015: Gulen supported the CLINTON FOUNDATION
In the 1970s, the influential Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen made a name for himself in his native Turkey, thanks to the constant support of the CIA, as later confirmed by retired Turkish intelligence official Osman Nuri Gundes.
http://www.infowars.com/report-hillary-clinton-funded-by-islamic-terrorists/
Why Bill Clinton mentioned Gulen at the Turkish Cultural Center’s Dinner in September 2008 Gulenists’ campaign contributions to Hillary Clinton likely played a role.http://turkishinvitations.weebly.com/why-bill-clinton-mentioned-gulen-at-the-tccny-dinn /
..
UPDATE – RT: USA will never extradite Gulen FastMail WARNING: URL text and host don’t match, possible phishing attempt. URL disabled. Original URL=’https://www.180grader.dk/rediger/mand:%20https:/www.rt.com/op-edge/351708-gulen-turkey-erdogan-coup/’. Original text=’ https://www.rt.com/op-edge/351708-gulen-turkey-erdogan-coup/‘. For more information on phishing click here.
FLASHBACK FEBRUAR 2016: Turkey may close Incirlik Air Base for US – president’s adviser
http://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2496665.html
Other anomalies:
* 5 Incirlik commanders recently got leave
Detained Turkish Soldiers Claim to Have Mistaken Coup Attempt for Drills
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160716/1043121259/turkey-coup-drills.html
Turkey coup: Soldiers say they were ‘not aware they were part of coup attempt’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-latest-news-erdogan-istanbul />
* 13rd of june the american chief fire officer for Incirlik was murdered
An interesting anomaly close to Gulen’s residence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI32tSYyFwI
____
Erdogan has decided to stick it to the West and Europe after being snubbed by Merkel and the rest of the EU.
Erdogan is pivoting to Russia! Kerry has had an emergency meeting with Russia to assess the situation and based on the information, the West has orchastrated a last ditch effort to overthrow Erdogan but Russia gave him the heads up and this is why he was prepared for the coup. Just conveniently on his plane somewhere away from all the mess.
The West has lost and now Russia and Turkey will form an alliance. This is extremely important for Russia. A Partner in Turkey means a unified front against the new Nato/European super army that is being combined.
This is the ace in the hole. If Russia has aligned with Turkey then the West has shown its hand and Russia has suckered them in bigtime! Imagine if the whole Turkish/Russian jet confrontation was a ruse to get the West more interested in cozying up to Turkey and then BAM.
________
1. Erdogan personally staged the event (or tipped off by Putin and Let It Happen On Purpose)
2. Provoked Germany to deny him assilum (so, he knows real intentions of Angela Merkel)
3. Sent the helicopter with 8 soldiers to Greece seeking asylum and now Greece has the “hot potato” in their hands (if they return soldiers they will get stoned from “democratic” world and if they don´t do that Erdogan is getting excuse to pressure even more Greeks.)
4. He is going to clean the army of any potential future attempts
5. As well as judicial system
6. He is holding Americans by the balls to return Gulen to him, and because of NATO (Incirlik AriBase) they have to do that.
7. He is holding entrance to Black Sea and also forcing Russians to be nice with him (well, no, they just saved his life)
8. He is going to press (using own supporters) even more “domestic enemies”
9. And finally, he gained incredible support from his population.
ChaosNavigator,
Excellent post. Thanks for the links.
Regards,
Carmel by the Sea
Charter schools: I recall reading about this!
Weird, why is this fellow so involved in charter schools.
It sort of goes to show, at the very least, that charter schools are, or can be, some kind of scam, from a genuine educational point of view–i.e., profit center.
But, what else is all of this about, the Gulen-school-Hillary connection.
Weird.
Katherine
The military set Erdogan up by shoting the Russian plane? Did everybody forget how many times Erdogan threatened to shoot Russian planes?
R
ChaosNavigator, how do you know Russian Intelligence helped Erdogan? This is very possible as the coup is related to Gulen which is CIA but I missed if any news are published.
Look back to 2013. An article by Business Insider, a cunsumate Western Insider, is very revealing:
Title: “The Political Future Of Turkey May Be Decided On This Quiet Road In Rural Pennsylvania”
“Before it’s even begun, Turkey’s 2014 is already looking rocky. For the first time, the country will hold direct presidential elections, and there is widespread speculation that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will run in a bid to extend his power beyond his term limits.”
“Erdogan has spent ten years as Prime Minister and 12 as chairman of the religious right wing Justice and Development Party (AK), but his tenure has become rocky, with Istanbul hit by serious anti-government protests earlier this year.”
“Analysts believe his latest threat doesn’t come from within Turkey though. It appears to comes from rural Pennsylvania; 1857 Mt. Eaton Road, Saylorsburg, to be precise.”
“That secluded address is reported to be the home of Fethullah Gulen, an enigmatic Islamic preacher who has lived in self-imposed exile from Turkey since 1999.”
“Gulen and his influential supporters in Turkey, including key members of the police and judiciary, supported Erdogan for three successive elections.”
“Recently, however, there have been signs that the informal coalition is crumbling, which could be a major problem for Erdogan in the next election — or sooner” [hmmm, sooner than an election, a coup maybe?].
“Some say the supposed schism occured because Gulenists were upset by a perceived shift to conservatism by AK. Others say Erdogan’s crackdown on private schools, many of which were funded by the Gulen movement, prompted retaliation.”
It seems that Gulen was being placed as the next leader of Turkey with Erdogan possibly going by means other than losing an election. He claims to mix Islam and business, so he appears to be a go fit for a US vassal.
http://www.businessinsider.com/fethullah-gulens-pennsylvania-home-2013-12?IR=T
Sputnik reporting that wikileaks will reveal documents on new power structure…..
A map showing the scale of the operation – a huge number of military bases were affected.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnmExa6WgAQoFbS.jpg
Erdogan was also being setup as the public fallguy over ISIS, leaving the US, UK, Israel and Saudi in the clear.
One other thing favoring US invoilvement. There have also been outbbreaks of violence from opposition groups in both Armenia and Khazakstan. In Armenia, armed oppositionists took over a police station and some hostages. In Khazakstan, similar armed oppositionists killed several police officers. Armenia had a failed color-coded regime change event ‘Electric Yerevan’ in summer 2015, then more recently there was the Nagharno-Karabkh flaerup. So, we are seeing raised instablility over Russia’s southern and south-eastern border areas. Qui bono.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2851776.html
It’s just weird that 24 hours after the failed coup Erdogan detains 2,750 judges and lawyers and 8000 policemen. The Turks must be the fastest trackers of dissidents in the world or they had all their names in a drawer…
I don’t quite believe that the USA was behind the coup. But they could use it to dethrone “another iddle-east dictator” to keep their economy going since a war against Russia and China ist just impossible to win.
and … Did France have foreknowledge of the attempted Coup in Turkey?
2 days before this statements appeared:
“The Embassy of France in Ankara, as well as the Consulate General in Istanbul will be closed from Wednesday July 13, 1pm, until further notice,” the embassy said in a statement…..
Yes, it’s getting more and more obvious that it’s all one and the same gang. The banksters & gangsters and their MI6, CIA, Mossad, DGSE, BND, Turkish MIT/Gulen, NATO, and so forth.
Reminder:
There is no USA but White House,CIA,Foggy Bottom foreign policy,Pentagon and Neoconic unwanted child.
Please read Saker’s article properly before making a statement.
This is a characteristic of authoritarian types of rule. IE, you see different power bases within the empire having different policies and goals and not necessarily acting in unison.
A prime example was of course NAZI Germany, where Himmler in the SS and Goering in the Luftwaffe and the Wehrmacht and others all developed separate power bases and then worked for their own gains and their own goals and not necessarily the same ones.
In general, you see this as a general trend in empires, and its a part of why, as Ghandi pointed out, they always fall. During the rise of a nation or empire, everyone has the same goal of building the nation. It may very from person to person, and each is still looking out for themselves, but there is a common goal. Later, as the empire reaches its peak and begins to fall, but before anyone really realizes this, the ‘court’ becomes a contest for power and influence and wealth, and the overall goals of the empire are now ignored. Everyone gets over-confident that the empire will last a 1000 years and never fall, so they concentrate on their own goals and their own schemes even if these go against what’s good for the empire, and its only in hind-sight that this is seen as the cause of the fall of the empire.
Looks like the swift purges of the army, police and judiciary without any investigations points to pre-prepared lists of political enemies. Further, the sheer incompetence of the coup makers where they did not bother to arrest the top leadership and more decisively seize control of communications; all this has the hallmarks of a staged event.
“The coup involved a very large number of people. We can get a sense of the magnitude of this coup by looking at the huge purge now taking place in Turkey. ”
That is circular logic. No coup ever involved so many people. The number is simply the number of names on the prepared Erdogan purge lists. It has nothing to do with coup plotters.
Makes you wonder about the quality of analysis, does it not?
There a rough, but interesting parallel between the story about the power being cut off to Incirlik air base, suggesting that US nukes are being held hostage, and the suspension of nuclear codes during the Kennedy assassination.
The source for this, IIRC, was the brilliant JFK “conspiracy theorist” John Judge’s mother, who worked at the Pentagon.
The idea was that no accidental nuclear war with the Soviet Union was to be risked. (The US Joint Chiefs of Staff had acquiesced to the assassination, as per Fletcher Prouty. BTW, fascinating recent revelations about the origin of the JFK assassination, via Gary Null interviews of Danny Sheehan: http://prn.fm/the-gary-null-show-06-10-16/ )
There’s more than 1 way to look at this, but here’s one speculation: The US did indeed know about the coup, but the coup is fake. The power is cut off so that Russia does not anticipate that instability following from the coup will be used to mount a nuclear attack from Incirlik. (I really don’t know, at all. But I’ll guess that any military base of significance has backup power generators and a supply of diesel fuel. What if the civilian power station gets bombed during a war? Or just ‘blows a massive fuse’, so to speak?)
OK, here’s another speculation, somewhat a refinement of the previous one. The coup is a fake, but was not faked by Erdogan. Rather, it was faked by US neocon related assets within the Turkish military. It was designed to fail, and thus designed to help Erdogan consolidate power. The neocon thinking may be that an empowered and emboldened Erdogan would renew the neocon Syrian dismemberment project. Note that I am speculating that essentially rogue neocon elements of the US ‘defense’ apparatus pulled this off. We have heard about US military assets fighting with US CIA assets, in Syria, so theorizing a rogue element is not particularly implausible.
OTOH, US media seems to not be challenging the “power cut off from Incirlik” narrative, at all, and so we can further speculate that the Obama administration is OK with letting that meme survive. Since that makes the US, and the Obama administration, appear weak, and Erdogan appear even more reckless than before, it suggests that the Obama administration is down with this plot.
Or not……. (Obama might consider not challenging the meme, since he wants to keep reckless Erdogan from going bonkers, knowing there are contingency plans for either extracting or, if necessary, destroying the nukes at Incirlik.)
Stephen Lendman questions what “support” for Erdogan actually means.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/public-support-for-turkeys-erdogan-more-suspect-than-real/5536324
Public Support for Turkey’s Erdogan More Suspect Than Real
By Stephen Lendman
Global Research, July 18, 2016
Region: Middle East & North Africa
In the wake of Friday’s aborted coup, thousands rallying for Erdogan looked suspect. Like all leaders, he can mobilize hard core faithful on short notice to show public support.
Saturday demonstrations looked more staged than authentic. Genuine support in the wake of an aborted coup would bring tens or hundreds of thousands out in force.
After the April 11, 2002 coup attempt against Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, popular support was overwhelming. Spontaneous mass protests erupted. Tens of thousands took to the streets, demanding he be reinstated.
On April 13 he was back, telling Venezuelans “(w)e demonstrated that a united people will never be defeated.”
Chavez was a world-class democrat, a populist hero, beloved and widely supported.
Erdogan became prime minister in March 2003, then president since August 2014. He’s a tinpot despot, an international outlaw, a rogue leader waging war on Kurds in three countries, supporting ISIS and other terrorist groups, an anti-civil libertarian, merciless against anyone challenging his ruthlessness.
Turkey under his rule is more police state than democracy. Criticizing him is considered terrorism or treason. Independent journalists, academics, students, trade unionists, human rights supporters, lawyers and other activists languish as political prisoners under harsh gulag conditions.
Civil and human rights abuses are commonplace. Wealth and power interests alone matter. Popular needs go begging. Neoliberal harshness takes precedence.
A few thousand rallying supportively in Ankara and Istanbul’s Taksim Square hardly constitutes popular support. Memories of late May/early June 2013 remain, Taksim the site of massive anti-regime protests.
Plans to replace its Gezi Park with a shopping mall and reconstructed military barracks sparked things. Police brutality followed. Protesters chanted “Erdogan resign.”
Nationwide strikes followed, public anger expressed against repression, neoliberal harshness, encroachment on secularism and war on Syria.
Taksim Square then and now are marked contrasts. Manufactured popular support masks deep-seated discontent.
Will it erupt ahead more forcefully than before? Will Erdogan’s ruthless rule be his undoing? Or will he continue ruling Turkey with an iron fist uncontested? The jury is out.
Metamurs, BTW, fascinating recent revelations about the origin of the JFK assassination, via Gary Null interviews of Danny Sheehan:
Very interesting interview. FYI Null’s four-part series of interviews wtih Sheehan is about the deep state. Who is it? Sheehan names some names but acknowledges he doesn’t know who is the new generation of Deep Staterler that is coming up. But he explicates the dynamic whereby political appointees “insert” staff into agencies that then protect the Deep State and its interests from within the govt.
Null keeps trying to get Sheehan to keep it brief, but Sheehan can’t do ti—because he has too many details at his fingertips. The scuttlebut on Bill Clinton is fascinating.
As Null says, per Chris Hedges, and Hedges is someone whom I respect in the extreme:
Sanders is a sellout. He sold out. He never looked twice at jill Stein and her offer to “make him an honest man.” Now i wonder, what in the world was Sanders’s game, from the get-go. Was he a Trojan Horse from the word Go?
I guess that is OT, but the link was worthwhile.
Katherine
Still leaves the matter of 42(!) helicopters that have gone missing from Incirlik. With or without nuclear heads. If those get in who’s hands, I would not bank on better times yet!!!
The latest – Erdogan has purged 7,000 POLICE officiers, and 1,500 members of the finance Ministry.
So those numbers can be added to the soldiers already purged.
And Kerry is making sounds about the democratic requirements of NATO members, suggesting Turkey could be booted from NATO.
Dear Saker, the large number of arrests doesn’t prove in itself that anyone in the US was involved. Gulen may or may not be involved, but Gulen is vested in Hillary Clinton and her neocon clique. Also the ambiguity of Department of State’s response (and NATO’s heads) in the early hours is telling. The DOS referred to it euphemistically as an “uprising.” NATO heads’ response was very muted as if hedging their bets or almost wishing that it succeed. At the NATO powwow in Warsaw, Turkey’s voice was dissonant. Instead of hyping the Russian threat like all others, Turkey stressed the ISIS threat (understood as the Kurd’s threat for them). Erdogan recognizes that US (and NATO’s interest run contrary to Turkey’s on the Kurds issue. NATO is interested in a partition of Syria leaving a free Kurdistan corridor along the Turkey border.This could make a Gas pipeline layout through Kurdistan feasible. But this is anathema to Turkey. Russia on the other hand is interested in the integrity of Syria. Thus, Turkey’s self preservation naturally interest aligns itself with Russian foreign policy on Syria. Turkey Stream is back on the agenda. It was telling that Putin cancelled his scheduled appointments for the week. He knew something BIG was coming with potential to affect the geopolitical status quo. Turkey had invited and later recanted an invitation to stage Russian military assets @ Incirlik. Not too long ago, Germany had pulled out from this base. Subsequently, US Servicemen’s families were pulled out of Incirlik too. It was Turkey’s air force based in Incirlik that shot down the Russian bomber with cooperation from AWACS and knowing flight plans shared with USAF. After, Erdogan expressed his apology, Putin moved way too fast to accept this and send Russian tourists back to Turkey. This seemed like Putin extended an emergency lifeline to Erdogan at the ninth hour. Most likely they all knew about the upcoming coup. They were observing and following the plotters. The plotters probably knew they were being shadowed and accelerated their move without being able to capture Erdogan. The regime either allowed it to occur or pre-empted it with a false flag of their own to capture as many plotters and non plotters considered enemies of the regime. Don’t discount Saudi Arabia among the plotters in your analysis. The Saudi foreign minister uttered threats against Erdogan because of his recent policy changes. Consider that the AKP is Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The Qatari government is close to MB. The Saudis and the Egyptian Sisi are not MB. The Saudis do not control the Qatari government. Sisi removed MB Morsi because Morsi wanted to send the Egyptian army to Syria. The Egyptian army has been fighting the MB and IS in the Sinai. They have IS in near their border in Lybia. They might all be muslims but not all are MB. In any case, If Brexit was the coup of grace to the EU, the failed coup in Turkey is a near fatal blow to NATO. Turkey has the second most powerful army in the alliance. Turkey secures the Southern flank of Europe and the way to Eurasia.
@”The regime either allowed it to occur or pre-empted it with a false flag of their own”
Could this explain why the “rebelling” soldiers seemed to think they were participating in a drill?
Maybe that is what they were told, as part of the preempting action?
Katherine
This is rather common in coups. IE, the officers are in on the coup, but they certainly can not do the prep work to convince the rank and file soldiers without giving away the plot. So, they either rely on the soldiers being loyal to their officers and following commands blindly, or they create false explanations for the soldiers. So, the soldiers being told that they are participating in an exercise is probably rather common in the history of coups.
Dear Katherine, it looks like the MIT (Turkish intelligence) knew about the coup a day ahead of it. Preparations for total closure of air space began. Furthermore, Syrian based Russian radio-electronic staff intercepted the communications between the coup plotters and helicopter borne hit forces. They tipped off Erdogan who abandoned his hotel half and hour before it was attacked. Erdogan boarded his plane but couldn’t land in Atartuk airport in Istanbul as it remained closed. His aircraft was both chased and escorted by different F-16. His pilot switched off the transponder. The aircraft identified with civilian flight instead of as the presidential aircraft. The coup fizzled when secular Kemalist army generals sided with Erdogan against NATO’s air force holed up in Incirlik. The Army threatened to storm the base. The electrical power was switched off from the grid. The Air Force opted to surrender. The 50-90 dial-a-yield tactical nuclear (fusion) gravity bombs B-61 remain under siege as well as about 1500 US airmen and DIA staff.
An informative discussion at Newsbud
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2016/07/18/newsbud-sibel-edmonds-dissects-the-turkey-coup-attempt-a-cia-gulen-concocted-dry-run/
It was Not a staged coup but a parallel coup situation .
Yes, it is risky business to play along with the original plotters but Erdogan and especially his MIT head are arrogant enough to risk it because the pay off is so much . They laid an effective trap but now they must be massively ruthless in order to tie up all loose ends but there is a price to pay for that strategy. Mass purges might have made some countries strong at some times in history but Turkey is already cracking at the seams with a disastrous foreign policy and an ethnic cleansing campaign.
.
Let’s see if in the end it will be worth it to have played the game they way they did. The people of Turkey will decide that looking back years from now.
The number of arrested and purged does not necessarily reflect the number of people actually engaged in the coup. It’s obvious that the list have been prepared long ago. The coup is the miraculously convenient pretext to get rid of anyone who had raised even the tiniest suspicion of being against the Erdogan regime.
I don’t quite agree with the Saker’s conclusions on that.
It is likely that Turkey will have a more pronounced Sunni Islamist Government, which will inevitably have its effect on foreign policy and military maneuvers.
Sunni-Islamic nationalism will not get along with Alawites and Shias. Beyond the short term, Turkey will side with Egypt and Israel against Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. It will not be friendly toward Armenia, Iraq and Iran either. And of course, there will be continued repression of the Kurds.
The Islamic state of Turkey will not do Russia any good. It will support the Chechens, Azeris and Georgians in the Caucasus, the Tatars in Crimea, and the Ukro-nazis and the Donbass.
In summary, I think that Erdogan, unchecked, will be even worse for Russia than he will be for the United States.
The type of crowds on the streets and the news that they have shot the Mayor in the head.
Suggests to me that you are more likely to be correct.
The Islamists that support erdogan will cause even more trouble.
Kadyrov in Chechnya called Turkey brotherly people – saying this after what Turkey had done – or may do – shows a real lack of political sense
Russia will be watching closely to see what forces have been unleashed. They are bring back all their citizens from Turkey despite assurances that they will be okay.
There is no trust there
Can someone please explain why RT was hit by a massive DDos attack during the Turkey coup? (See https://www.rt.com/news/351645-rt-massive-ddos-attack/, I believe that the Saker mentioned this as well in his open thread on the Turkey coup as he had troubles viewing RT at the time).
I am not a computer wizard (so may be wrong here), but it appears to me that such an attack takes planning and timing, i.e. that it must have been known in advance by the DDos attackers that something very big was about to happen last Friday when the coup attempt was performed.
Can there be any reason why Erdogan would like to have RT offline during the coup? I see none, but this appears to me entirely different for the USA, IF they were the instigators behind this failed coup.
Any other thoughts about this DDos attack and its timing?
And yes, I agree with Saker’s initial analysis that it is not likely that Erdogan himself is behind this coup, despite the massive western propaganda who like to convince their readers otherwise.
But evidence… No…
Setting up the tools for a DDS attack does take planning and effort. Usually its done (at least when hackers do it) by infecting other computers with ‘bots’ so they can later participate in the DDS attack. IE, a DDS is lots of computers all trying to hit the target website all at the same time, thus overloading it.
On the other hand, once this preparation is done, I suspect that the ‘bots’ can be targeted rather quickly. Ie, you’ve got the bots in place, and then you sick them all on a target like RT.
Thus, if some group had the bots already in place, then they could probably react quickly at target a particular site with very little delay. Someone just sends an instruction out to the bot network and gives it a target and a command to execute.
Thanks for the info Patrick.
Still puzzles me who targeted RT… I only have my gut feeling.
It wouldn´t surprise if it was the russians that provided some information about the coming coup to Erdogan.
Think of it. It was only a couple of weeks ago that Turkey and Russia decided to better their relations and of course they meet at different levels and as a show of goodwill change information with each others as do the security services. And you can be sure some information is salted in one way or Another. Her Russia have a great opportunity to weaken Turkey army and hurt the relations between Turkey and USA/NATO and maybe even get Turkey to leave NATO
It Wouldn’t Surprise Me At All
Helen writes,
“I cannot understand a professional military command undertaking anything as risky as a military coup with a less than experienced and committed soldiery and a rock solid plan to take out the head of state first. The Turkish military has hard-won experience of conducting several successful coups in the past, they must know what is the absolute minimum required for even a chance to succeed. To proceed without that absolute minimum is tantamount to suicide.”
Helen is right. This matter is curious indeed. The coup does appear half-arsed, poorly planned, amateurish even. Why so?
Odd indeed.
Siotu
I wouldn’t be surprised if the US was involved, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a total false flag event, either. Erdogan is extremely arrogant. Autocrats like him often succumb to hubris and make stupid mistakes. What’s the quote again? “Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.”
Stephen Lendman questions what “support” for Erdogan actually means.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/public-support-for-turkeys-erdogan-more-suspect-than-real/5536324
Public Support for Turkey’s Erdogan More Suspect Than Real
By Stephen Lendman
Global Research, July 18, 2016
Region: Middle East & North Africa
In the wake of Friday’s aborted coup, thousands rallying for Erdogan looked suspect. Like all leaders, he can mobilize hard core faithful on short notice to show public support.
Saturday demonstrations looked more staged than authentic. Genuine support in the wake of an aborted coup would bring tens or hundreds of thousands out in force.
After the April 11, 2002 coup attempt against Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, popular support was overwhelming. Spontaneous mass protests erupted. Tens of thousands took to the streets, demanding he be reinstated.
On April 13 he was back, telling Venezuelans “(w)e demonstrated that a united people will never be defeated.”
Chavez was a world-class democrat, a populist hero, beloved and widely supported.
Erdogan became prime minister in March 2003, then president since August 2014. He’s a tinpot despot, an international outlaw, a rogue leader waging war on Kurds in three countries, supporting ISIS and other terrorist groups, an anti-civil libertarian, merciless against anyone challenging his ruthlessness.
Turkey under his rule is more police state than democracy. Criticizing him is considered terrorism or treason. Independent journalists, academics, students, trade unionists, human rights supporters, lawyers and other activists languish as political prisoners under harsh gulag conditions.
Civil and human rights abuses are commonplace. Wealth and power interests alone matter. Popular needs go begging. Neoliberal harshness takes precedence.
A few thousand rallying supportively in Ankara and Istanbul’s Taksim Square hardly constitutes popular support. Memories of late May/early June 2013 remain, Taksim the site of massive anti-regime protests.
Plans to replace its Gezi Park with a shopping mall and reconstructed military barracks sparked things. Police brutality followed. Protesters chanted “Erdogan resign.”
Nationwide strikes followed, public anger expressed against repression, neoliberal harshness, encroachment on secularism and war on Syria.
Taksim Square then and now are marked contrasts. Manufactured popular support masks deep-seated discontent.
Will it erupt ahead more forcefully than before? Will Erdogan’s ruthless rule be his undoing? Or will he continue ruling Turkey with an iron fist uncontested? The jury is out.
Did Erdogan know of a planned US coup?
Did he know what it would take to trigger that coup?
Did he then trigger the coup after taking certain precautions in order to use the coup to his own advantage?
Does he now have possession of US choppers & nukes?
Is he blackmailing (or will he blackmail) USA with the military hardware?
Why was so much media attention given to the story of power being cut to Incirlik Air Base?
When was the power cut?
Is the lack of power story only for the purpose of giving Erdogan the means of ‘plausible deniability’ regarding what happened to the 42 attack helicopters and the equipment carried off with them (e.g. nukes)? Even the mysterious or missing F-16s used during the operation, is it foolish to believe that during the coup they were not tracked or could not be tracked, even with transponders turned off? (Air traffic control is mission critical. Radar is mission critical.)
I made an inquiry regarding the power outage on social media which seemed to generate a fair amount of activity. So, until I am able to perfect my conspiracy theory, I figured it would be best to inquire here. ;-)
Thank you for considering these questions and the possible answers them.
I’ve been on enough bases, posts, and forts to know that only non mission critical services would be impacted by a power outage. Mission critical services have redundant power. It is difficult to imagine a power outage impacting the ability to monitor air traffic.
Isn’t it interesting that the main stream media and plenty of the alternative media, so called, are promoting the identical theory- Erdogan faked the coup-
Which by any standards would be a conspiracy theory about a false flag- The msm and some alternative sites (moa as an example) pay no mind to such conspiracies when it applies to 9/11!
But msm and so called alternatives are willing to entertain a false flag about a faked coup in Turkey- as if they are all reading from the same play book
I find that most curious.
I find Egypts role in this highly suspect:
They had headlines just screaming that the coup had succeeded- there media was reporting on Saturday that the coup was succesful-
I have a few links up at my blog:
” Egyptians woke up today to find some newspapers announcing the Turkish military’s ouster of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even as the strongman loathed by Cairo quashed a coup attempt.
“The Turkish army topples Erdogan,” declared a red banner on the front page of the state’s flagship Al-Ahram newspaper.
“Recep Tayyip vanishes,” said the subhead.
“Army controls Turkey and deposes Erdogan,” the private Al-Watan announced, labelling yesterday night’s attempted coup by an army faction as “military disobedience”.
Almost as if Egypt had some insider knowledge?
And then there was France, who announced on the 13th, two days before the coup attempt that they were closing their embassy and consulate in Turkey
here’s hoping my code works???
Turkey’s Coup- Pt1: Contradictory Claims and Egypt’s role
This was a perfectly organized and well executed coup d’etat. Every place of relevance was swiftly stormed and placed under control. They were looking for Erdogan in every place he could be. Problem was, somebody tipped off Erdogan and he got up on his plane and left earlier that day. He only got back to Turkey after the enemy was out in the open, and he could make his move at his leisure.
Russians probably tipped off Erdogan. They have no love for him. Nonetheless, half the country would be mad about the putsch, and Turkey would have descended into a bloody civil war and total lawlessness. One way or the other, chaos would have suited the Empire’s plans. Russia doesn’t need another large country on its border imploding. Especially since they can’t control events in Turkey like they control Ukraine.
I suspected the Russians may have tipped Erdogan off also- one obvious benefit to Russia was impeding the expansion of NATO into the Black Sea-
quoting from an article posted at my place…
“The coup, had it succeeded, would have scuttled a possible meeting between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks that holds the potential to be a defining moment in the Syrian conflict.”
“All things taken into consideration, therefore, Turkey’s possible change of course is being anticipated in Moscow and Tehran as a geopolitical event of momentous consequence to the realignment in Middle East politics and the overall balance of forces”
“In particular, these events would constitute a major setback to the US’s agenda to establish a permanent NATO presence in the Black Sea to contain Russia.
Some good reasons for Russia to lend a helping hand..
First, Putin and Erdogan had a telephone conversation after military coup attempt in Turkey.
http://tass.ru/en/politics/888845
Russian lawmaker thinks Erdogan will continue course toward rapprochement with Moscow
“The attempted coup in Turkey may be followed by serious changes in the domestic and foreign policy of the country,” Frants Klintsevich said
http://tass.ru/en/politics/888794
Erdogan in a phone conversation with Rouhani reportedly said “Turkey is ready to solve regional problems together with Iran and Russia”
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/3466001
and yes, that was interesting that Putin called Erdogan immediately after the coup
The call was initiated by Putin
Also Wiz Oz- commenter here and at my- blog pointed out that Erdogan and Putin have common enemy in Gulen…..
nothing like a common enemy to bond over, right?
on July 19, 2016 · at 12:39 am UTC
Oops- forgot to fill in the name part- Yup, Penny- sorry about that- don’t want to make things confusing and hi wiz oz- going to be using your comment in an upcoming post
I fully agree, Saker. Uncle Sam was behind the putsch in Turkey. German Lügenfunk & Lügenpresse struggled to hold back statements openly supporting the putsch. Atlanticist politicians even wishing in the aftermath that the putsch had succeeded. The case is clear. Just like with the Istanbul airport bombing promply following on the heels of the Moscow Ankara rapprochement.
I don’t speak Turkish, but Super Erdo has impressed me. Firm stance against the conspirators. Purge the state apparatus from Uncle Sam’s minions. Also purge some unrelated opponents in the process. Been done before. As Grieved above said, Erdo can change again and realign with the Good Guys.
I hope nobody fell for the Francozionist Nizza terror hoax. As laughable as Bataclan, just less stories, less images, less footage, less everything. A very poor hoax. Note how they twist the story to reign in the sheeple commercially … “the terrorist financed his attack by selling pirated products” … so do buy the expensive brands (made by slaves in Bangla Desh) and don’t even consider opting for the cheapies … you might be financing terrorism! Really made me laugh.
German Liar’s Media had a story today about some “mourning the victims” ceremony in Berlin, attended by French, Israeli and Usanian official representatives. Three Germans allegedly among the “victims”, from some school in Berlin, yet their official status is “missing”. No further detail on their identity. Cheap German contribution to the cheap Francozionist hoax.
Haven’t looked into it, but Uncle Sam’s Dallas and Baton Rouge cop sniper stories also sounded like 100 % hoaxes to me.
Finally, the SpaceX transport to the International Fake Station.
They’re definitely putting on a great show for the sheeple.
But look what came of that Nice thing:
Frenchies demand MORE….. prison rules & fewer liberty leaves.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950428001170
Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:52
Majority of French Citizens Distrust Government in Fight against Terrorism
At the same time, 81 percent of individuals agree to accept more controls and limit their freedom to some extent to ensure safety, the poll’s results indicated.
According to the poll, 99 percent of the survey’s participants assess the terror threat in the country as being “high” or “very high.”
oh, yeah, & the Frenchie PM got loudly booed today at that ceremony, so it was either a big bunch who know exactly what these bastards are pulling, or it really was a bunch of whiners voicing their displeasure at not being protected enuf!
I will not add to the articulate speculations of the commentators the vanity of my conjecture, for, clearly, everything and its opposite seem equally possible. I cannot guess the past, nor anticipate futurity. Hence just a few serendipitous observations.
Literarily speaking, and considering his massacres, Erdogan could be compared to Macbeth, lacking, however, the latter’s tragic personality, blinded and thrust forward by destiny and ambition – after having completely misunderstood the witches’ predictions.
But there is something noble in Macbeth – and in moments of lucidity he even feels the pangs of conscience. Without even allowing for the influence of Lady Macbeth, ambitious schemer from behind the curtains. With Erdogan we know nothing of the influence of his wife (or wives?)
And while endeavoring to add new strands to the fabric of his ambition, Erdogan remains a kind of Falstaff, less fat, but deprived of any ability to laugh at himself, at least at times.
He looks like an ornery corner-store manager, perennially angry because there isn’t enough ice in the refrigerator.
As an aside, that ‘g’ in Erdogan is neither a vowel nor a consonant, it’s a conso-vowel – a true piece of Levantine lexicography. Those in the know have mastered the correct pronunciation, but I side with the German songwriter, who ended up in court for his sacrilegious lyrics. Where the refrain in his sinful song ends with “Erdouin, Erdouon, Erdouan.”
Furthermore, out of these sagas with multiple threads, often spring out characters, previously unknown to the world at large. In the instance, the “foetid mullah with the goulash,” which is my mnemonic trick to remember the very Turkish name of Fetullah Gulen, with the umlaut on the ‘u’ of Gulen – the Turkish, not the more familiar German umlaut.
Fetullah, by just looking at him, is the embodiment of the quintessential godfather who makes you offers that you cannot refuse. Apparently, he is a great milker of fat cows – characters often found in the great morass of wild privatizations, undertaken in the exceptional nation. Where, in the instance, the udders are ‘charter schools’, a proven method to suck taxes from the taxpayers, in the name of (never proven and actually disproven) efficiency in pedagogy. The milionaires who caught the gale of fortune, thanks to the charter-school racket, make a pretty hefty number.
Apparently, Fetullah has imported carloads of Turkish teachers to teach English to Americans in his charter schools, thanks to the farcical H1B visa scheme.
But everything is revealed when considering the strong ties between the foetid mullah and the Clinton Foundation. Which, as explained in the blog http://wp.me/p2e0kb-1Xk (“The Clinton’s War on Women”) should be more accurately renamed “The Oral and Anal Sex Foundation.”
Finally, apart from the somewhat mysterious coup, Erdogan reconciles with Israel, which, however, was already a stalworth ally in the arming, feeding and protection of ISIS. ISIS being the ideal Orwellian friend-enemy of the US of A, target and source of enormous profits for the military-industrial-lobbying cabal. With a little help from sundry satrapies of the Gulf, and from the Saudi elite, linked to Israel by long-standing and apparently fraternal bonds.
In fact, fifteen years later, it is now official that Saudi Arabia financed 9/11. And, given the link between the Saudi elite and Israel, those who wish can draw the conclusions already reached by many others.
Also remembering that when Sataniahu (uninvited), calls a special joint session of the American congress-senate, 537 senators and congressmen give him dozens of standing ovations. And he who does not cheer and stand can forego his political career.
Not long ago, a New York taxi-driver (Filipino), happy to have found a pair of consenting ears, exposed to me his views on history, society and the present state of the world. Before I left the taxi he said, “There will never be peace in the world, until there will be the state of Israel.”
The probability of the US sponsoring or tacitly supporting the coup (attempted) against Erdogan can be verified by their reaction to it, were they against it there would have been sharp explicit condemnation from the beginning combined with threats of intervention if the coup plotters fail to stand down. That they did not condemn means they were in on it, the US intel apparatus is too entrenched in Turkey not to know what is going on. They stopped short of openly endorsing the coup attempt & stating that the US supports democracy in Turkey could be interpreted as a swipe against Erdogan, not an endorsement, considering his democratic credentials are about zero. Erdogan was clearly tipped off though & prepared, but what suprises me somewhat is the lack of commentary on the likely outcome of his purge. Turkey will almost certainly descend into civil war, reason being that at the heart of the political crisis there are two completely different conceptions of what Turkey should be as a state & society, two mutually exclusive conceptions. One is Erdogan’s Islamist/Salafist/neo-Osmanist conception, the other is the so-called ‘secularist Kemalist’ conception, which is basically a vision of Turkey as a Western European cosmopolitan society. Both conceptions have a strong following in the country, it is not clear which has majority support or where the dividing line can be drawn in terms of proportions of the population, suffice to say that Turkey is sharply divided between these two conceptions & now they are on a collision course for real. If Erdogan was smart, he would take a leaf out of Assad’s book & engage in a dialogue & reconciliation process in order to deflate tensions between these two segments of society, instead he is opting for confrontation & therefore we can expect a descent into civil war in Turkey. That is what I expect to see, & truth be known, Russia would benefit from a disintegration of the Turkish state, as Turkey is the weak link in the Silk Road project & Russia consolidating alliances around the Black Sea. So what I will be watching for is the beginnings of conflict between Turks themselves. The US is likely to rekindle its alliance with the Kemalists, whom it seems to have sidelined in favor of Islamist elements as revealed by Sibel Edmonds & the Gladio B op. They may well seek to strengthen these elements & weaponise them, indications of this are already surfacing with NATO warning Erdogan to refrain from purging the military any further or reviving the death penalty. So we know who they are going to back, this is about to become very interesting.
The statue of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in Istanbul was just taken down.
Oh, and a Russian journalist Valentin Trushnin was arrested.
…. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-18/top-turkish-official-charge-campaign-against-isis-found-dead-shot-neck
Hopefully Pres. Putin can also cleanse the Zionist “Fifth Column” in the Russian Federation and consolidate power in the interests of the peoples of the Russian Federation.
Philip Giraldi and Patrick Cockburn have weighed in with their analysis of the coup. I agree with some points and disagree on others.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/a-very-predictable-coup/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-patrick-cockburn-need-to-know-a7143316.html
The coup was likely all but staged by Erdogan leading on Kemalist sentiment within the Turkish Deep State, which is finished now. Fetulluh Guten is just a ruse, a useful bogeyman Erdongan has no intention of cashing in with a real extradition.
Purged with the Kemalists supposedly is purged any Western sympathizers, but that is not to say Turkey becomes Eurasian or that the Kemalists weren’t ardent nationalists and good at it.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/post-coup-turkey-will-be-distinctly-eurasian/5536229
Turkey now becomes an independent Rimland power based on Erdogan’s nativist Turkish Sunni Islamism. Turkish Islamist more or less usurped the modern foundation of state and military only Kemalists could have built.
Erratic Erdogan may have method to his madness insofar as MacKinderan geo-realpolitik is concerned. A student of MacKinder, Nickolas Spykman, developed the Rimland theory wherein controlling, or at least disrupting, the heartland was possible via the rimland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimland
This is the vast geography surrounding the World Heartland; of the (W)Heartland powers only China connects firmly directly to the oceans while Russia is limited to Vladivostok to the east and Murmansk and the Northeast Passage in the Arctic. From the Atlantic through the Mediterranean through the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea lie the fractious Rimland nations of Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
The North American heartland, the Great Plains of North America, by comparison, is directly connected to Oceana and not insulated by rimland territories to the East or West. Canada and Mexico are not true rimlands but share in the (NA)Heartland and likewise connect directly to the world’s primary Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Turkey is in competition with Israel to be the dominant stable rimland power in the Mediterranean. As Israel tries to foster free trade with Russia and China, while the U.S. turns a blind eye, the more natural corridor to Eurasia cripples itself with sanctions against Russia. The U.S. is forcing Europe to cede prime middleman position in a future polarized between Western and Eastern heartlands.
https://www.rt.com/business/332259-russia-israel-free-trade/
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-china-enter-talks-over-establishing-free-trade-zone/
However, Turkey holds prime geopolitical real estate Israel does not. A secure land corridor from deep Eurasia via Syria through Turkey does not need Israel.
Erdogan seems to be placing himself in do-or-die position to play off America/Israel and Russia to become the premiere independent middleman Rimland power in the Middle East. A Turkish Sunni Islamist base is alien to both West, East and the Middle East with loyalties only to Turkey. The only weakness is if Erdogan overprices his real estate; then world events bypass Turkey via Israel despite the limitations of Israel.
Its not unlike how Kemalism itself created a distinct secular Turkish identity to forge a real geopolitical power. However, secular Turks also remained politically sympathetic Western powers and relied on them somewhat to keep the Islamist majority in check. Clearly, the West allowed them to be cashed in – for what gain?
Turkish Sunni Islamists want all the benefits of Kemalism without Kemalism’s Western achilles heel and all the benefits of independent Iranian Shiism without Iran or Shiism, and like Iran, leveraging their real estate advantage.
The Kemalists were in Erratic Erdogan’s view Turkey’s the only ‘internal’ enemy. The majority of Turks are all for reducing democracy into Islamist mob rule.
Assuming Erratic Erdogan doesn’t ignite civil war and squander one or both of political/military and economic/military power, he will succeed in making Turkey like Iran – bereft of all the benefits of secular thought and action, perhaps to a degree Iranian mullah could only dream of. Not one inch of Turkish land will be given over to any redrawn map of the Middle East; any land or influence they can glean will be taken.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/plans-for-redrawing-the-middle-east-the-project-for-a-new-middle-east/3882
Also interesting to note – Islamic State terrorist attacks against Turkey ceased during the brief crisis and at no time did the Islamic State try and take advantage of Turkish chaos, while the Kurdish PKK did launch conventional military attacks.
Erratic Erdogan may have dared and won again geopolitically, oddly enough.
His strategic moves are fairly solid even if the tactical executions are blundered, then requiring a new strategy. Erdogan’s original ‘no problems’ neighbors policy stalled on its internal contradictions, resulting in an opportunistic switch to problems with everyone – removing Assad from Syria, alienating the U.S./Israel, and shooting down a Russian tactical bomber. Thus again requiring strategic rethinking. If Turkey were not where it is geographically, he’d never get away with it.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/22/how-turkey-went-from-zero-problems-to-zero-friends/
http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160717/1043158581/erdogan-turkey-coup.html
An element that is mostly disregarded in most of the analyses is simply the Turkish nationalism. They might not really want to be pushed into different schemes that have nothing to do with their national interests. And their national interests are better served by friendly relations with Russia. The returning Russian tourists to Antalya have been received like royalty. “The smiling Russians were treated to champagne, flowers, and upbeat music as they toted their suitcases toward rows of eager taxis”, as CNN acridly reported.
I think that it is impossible to think that US was not behind the coup. The loss of Turkey for the Anglo-Zio-American camp is equivalent to a geopolitical cataclysm. That is a reason enough to expect more attempts to reverse the course, but I think they would have the same success.
https://fr.sputniknews.com/international/201607191026796276-turquie-otan-putsch-coup-etat-erdogan-kerry/
Hey Saker! La tu vas boire du petit lait qui a deja un petit peu le gout du champagne.
any news from baku ane Yerevan? seems to me that they keep trying and trying….. :(
It is hard to believe that a coup organised by members of a professional army such as that of Turkey would be carried out in such an unprofessional manner.
Plus the fact that the Turkish army have done many coups in the last few decades.
There is more to this than meets the eye.
Another view of the events.
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/07/18/theres-more-to-turkeys-failed-coup-than-meets-the-eye/
thanks, yup that is interesting
There maybe some connection with conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute in all this.
In a recent comment to Robert Parry’s Consortium News I wrote:
“Interestingly enough, an article entitled ‘Could there be a coup in Turkey?’ by Michael Rubin appeared as recently as March this year on the institute’s blog.
“An organization that according to its Wikipedia entry boasts that “more than twenty staff members served either in a Bush administration policy post or on one of the government’s many panels and commissions” could certainly get the notice of some unhappy factions in Turkey’s military and political spheres. Whether those factions might have seen this article as the nod of approval for a course of action is entirely up to them and easily deniable.”
https://www.aei.org/publication/could-there-be-a-coup-in-turkey/
In another long and rambling article that appeared in Commentary Magazine by Michael Rubin May, last year, Rubin reveals an interesting tidbit when he says: “At the height of my political spat with the Gülenists, their door was never closed to me (they were for a long time housed in the same building as my American Enterprise Institute office)”.
Hmmm, let me think about that a minute.
The one thing I took from these events ….. the Turkish people do not want to return to military rule. Turkey has a history of coups and periods of rule by the military. And the one thing the Turkish people said about this coming back was ‘NO’.
When word went out that a coup was going on, the people went out into the streets to oppose it. Even Erdogan opponents. Even the people who otherwise support the factions that Erdogan is in the process of ‘purging’ from any voice in the political system. The Turkish people on the streets still hate the idea of a military coup and rule by the military more.
There were no crowds supporting the military. Regardless of what people think of Erdogan, people did not turn out to support a military coup. They did turn out to oppose a return to military rule.
In a near by country our army was informed about the coup 24hrs before it happened. You can imagine who told us so..
And if the coup was organized by secular Kemalists and Gulen sympathizers but infiltrated by the CIA who tipped off the Turkey intelligence to fail the coup?
The USA and Israel want to keep Erdogan in power. He just made peace with Israel! They wont take the chance to give Turkey to unknown generals. As they know that Turks have a repulsion for military coups, they knew it won’t be difficult to make this coup to fail.
Turkey is now weakened, thus Erdogan will be more inclined to be obedient to the USA.
But he is now in bind: He is now the hostage to his Islamist supporters that “saved” him and to the USA for not allowing the coup to succeed. The Islamists want the end to Turkey’s secularism and the end to the war on ISIS and Al Nusra. The USA wants the end to ISIS and Al Nusra. How would Erdogan reconcile the two is impossible. Any move he will do toward secularism or against Islamist groups will be met by terrorist attacks.
Turkey has entered into a cycle of violence whose only solution would be the departure and a new social contract. Erdogan must go before the country enters in a civil war.
I’m skeptical of all sites and info, even the saker , no offence intended could be a psi opp. Remember opponents of the zio mafia often have violent endings…
But still, all sources are to be considered with an open mind so what to make of today’s block buster story
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2075.htm
How could we verify this information without waiting for the possible arrival? Easy or difficult?