By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with http://www.stalkerzone.org/rostislav-ishchenko-formats-of-friendship-russia-vs-america/
source: https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20180809/1020784827.html
The US arbitrarily and contrary to the opinion of the world community not only left the nuclear deal with Iran, but also imposed new sanctions on it, which were declared to be much more extensive and severe than the previous ones…
Trump again keeps his word and keeps his election promises. He criticised Obama’s policy on Iran even before his 2016 election victory, and indeed promised to return to a confrontation.
The US’ sanctions are interesting because of the fact that they extend not only to Iran, but also to the whole world. Trump promised that the one who will violate them won’t do business with the US (this means that they will be thrown out of the American commodity markets, services, and finance).
The ally of Iran in the Middle Eastern settlement is Russia. But Moscow doesn’t contemplate it. The American sanctions don’t concern Russia. Russia cooperated and will continue to cooperate with Iran, but it will also trade with America. And the Americans can’t do anything about it. Of course, the volume of bilateral trade between us isn’t big, but they can’t refuse it because they buy from us only what they can’t live without and what they aren’t able to make owing to their technological backwardness (for example, rocket engines).
But the European Union is notably nervous. The European Commission already forbade European companies from reacting to American threats and implementing anti-Iranian sanctions. But this didn’t really help. “Mercedes”, “Total”, and other European companies obediently declared the end of cooperation with Iran. But nobody had doubts about this. They will suffer losses in tens and even in hundreds of millions, but these losses aren’t critical for them. And if they will be asked to leave the American market, then they won’t have anything to replace it with because they sell their products for tens of billions of dollars there.
Trump knew where to strike. The EU for too long believed in the fairy tale about the “unity of the West based on values”, and when it became clear that when the senior companion talks about “values”, they mean not only gay parades, but also traditional forceful pressure, it means that the EU had nothing to answer with.
It is Russia who in 2014-2015 surprised the world when it quietly lived through the sanctions of the West and even converted some of them to its advantage. But for this purpose Moscow conducted long, persistent, and imperceptible to foreign eyes work on ensuring the independence of its economy from external influences. Of course, nobody was building a full autarchy, but such a system was created via which what seemed to Washington like a crushing blow capable of punching through a wall, suddenly struck emptiness. And yes, in 2014 and in 2015 the system hadn’t yet been completed. It still hasn’t been brought to gloss, it’s not polished, it’s not painted, it’s not varnished, but it’s already almost finished and completely able to work, while back then its important segments – in particular the financial one – demanded serious completion, which needed considerable time. And that’s why the rigidity of the Russian position sharply grew in 2016 and continued to further grow in a geometrical progression.
But the EU didn’t carry out this work at all. The EU, like Ukrainians, considered that “the US is with us”, so everything is alright. But when Washington, which in the imagination of the EU had to defend the common values of the West, suddenly whacked allies on the head with the bludgeon of anti-Iranian sanctions, it turned out that the European economy is defenseless in front of American arbitrariness. Taking into account the fact that the EU had a huge, comparable with Chinese, surplus in trade with the US, any trade war will appear for it to be more painful, and its nominal losses will be much higher than the losses of the US. And it is this that caused the revolt of the leading European companies against European Commission.
But business is business. The businessman (even the most sensible one) is fixated only on the financial-economic numbers of his business and only on its commercial effectiveness. The planning horizon of the most outstanding multinational corporations is manyfold closer than that of so-and-so states, and orders of magnitude closer than it is for superstates. That’s why rebel companies in this case are absolutely wrong, and the European Commission is absolutely right.
The EU has no levers of economic pressure on the US, but the EU has huge opportunities for applying political pressure, which will remain relatively short-lived. The US, at the level of the elite and the people, isn’t ready to reconcile with the thought that the EU will be lost as an ally, that NATO should be disbanded, and that Europe can change its political orientation. The government that will cause the corresponding processes will unambiguously fall. Moreover, the reciprocal economic measures of the EU will be rather painful for the US, and the people who were fired from office or lost their business don’t care if the EU will lose more.
I.e., Trump couldn’t act against the EU if he wasn’t sure that the latter will take a consolidated position and will fight up to the end. But the American President calculated correctly, as was the case with Russia – when politicians called to be patient, be consolidated, and to keep the sanctions until Moscow makes at least cosmetic concessions, while business groans about billions in losses and doesn’t want to wait for success for years and decades also, like in the case with the US.
European business doesn’t want to bear losses for the sake of Europe, and it means that it will be difficult for the EU to take a hard line — lobbyist groups will demand from politicians to reach an agreement with Washington. The first round of the battle belongs for Trump.
But I’m not sure about the second round. European politicians were able to evaluate the fullness of the risk. They simply won’t believe that the US will behave gentlemanlike. They need to insure themselves. Moreover, they understand that by conceding, European business wins nothing. The Americans will all the same continue to drive it out of their market, because their “spare cash” ran out. Now it is not only not the 1990’s, but it’s even not the naughties, and the US is going to milk its cow alone. At the same time they aren’t against milking the European cow too. Therefore, European companies will leave Iranian and some other markets that are minor for them in order to keep the main American one, and then the US will throw them out of their market too. Europeans won’t be able to return any more to this same Iran, because the place left by them will be taken by China and Russia. It means that European business will die, and the Americans will try to monopolise the EU market.
European officials are very ambitious people. The leaders of European states are too. Moreover, long before the beginning of the current trade war, the globalisators that are too orientated towards the US started being replaced in the governments of European countries by nationalist neo-isolationists (the same as Trump). This process goes with acceleration, and now risks acquiring an explosive character. Europe considered itself as the center of the universe for too long in order to allow some Yankees to order it around in such a harsh and vulgar manner.
European politicians will try to reduce their dependence on the US in order to one day unpleasantly surprise Washington, as was done by Russia in August, 2008 and in March, 2014. If they succeed, Washington will be left without an ally, without a European market, and in front of an economically united and politically integrating Eurasia – from Lisbon to Shanghai. If they don’t succeed, the US will be obliged to spend a mass of resources on holding onto an ally that in reality isn’t as such, and which wants to flee and is ready to shoot in the back. The US loses in the long term in both the former and latter cases. They have already lost, because instead of an ally (even if it sometimes hesitated or had its own opinion concerning some issues, it is an ally nevertheless), now they will have an opponent (hidden, but a saboteur all the same) in the form of the EU.
In this American mirror the Russian policy in the post-Soviet space is favourably reflected. All supporters of simple and tough decisions who are still moaning about why in 2008 Tbilisi wasn’t taken and Georgia wasn’t attached [territorially to Russia – ed], why the army wasn’t sent to Kiev and Novorossiya wasn’t attached either, why does Lukashenko in Belarus behave in the way that he wants and yet we don’t grab him by the scruff of his neck (for example, why don’t we block the oil and gas sent to him), why wasn’t Northern Kazakhstan – where there are a lot of Russians – taken away from Nazarbayev because of his decision to switch to Latin, etc, can look in this mirror and, should their I.Q. permit them, receive an answer to all these questions.
Even the hesitating, disloyal, mercantile ally who is interested in preserving relations with you; even benevolently intended formal neutrals; and even a moderate enemy is better than the declarative friend who needs to be kept by force. After all, the ally is valuable because of the fact that they add something to your resources. But if you punished and occupied them, then instead of granting additional resources, they start devouring yours.
Moreover, the surrounding world always watches closely how superstates relate to their allies. If this relation is based on mutual benefit and respecting the rights of the weak, then for such a State it is rather simple to attract new allies as required. They stand in a queue for this. But when everything is held onto via violent suppression, sooner or later you lose friends.
The policy of Russia adds to Russia voluntary allies that are ready to bring their contribution to the implementation of mutually advantageous plans. The policy of the US deprives the US of its last voluntary and sincere allies. Finding itself alone, Washington will simply be a big North Korea with aircraft carriers and without communists. Even the strongest who play alone versus all lose sooner or later, falling victim to overstrain.
Amazingly, the power center of a dying empire can always be counted upon, as history proves, to act irrationally. What is astonishing is that groups – who might normally act to reach a rational consensus – act as a single madman.
Is a single irrational tyrant in full control of US international policy? If so, who is the madman behind the curtain? Or does the madness of greed simply affect a few key players who give the order to deconstruct globalism for reasons yet to be understood.
In saying goodbye to globalism, bid farewell to the dollar. The madman drinks from a poisoned chalice and cares less for the world than the method of his madness.
Adam Smith, that Prime Mover of Capitalism, knew what he was talking about. After all, if you’re going to create a religion based on greed (for, ultimately, economics is nothing more than a religion), you probably have a keen and subtle awareness of the psychology of greed. Here, in the conclusion of Book One Chapter 11 of Adam Smith’s sacred text The Wealth of Nations he reveals the extent to which he understood that an economic system based upon greed must seek ways to prevent the greedy (ie: business) from assuming the reins of political power:
Thus the Prime Mover of Capitalism Himself — back in 1776! — said in his Bible that political power should never be exercised by businessmen because all they care about is their own gain, and will gladly “deceive” and “oppress” the public for it. Since he had such profound insight into the nature of such men, even to the point of understanding that the greatest profits are reaped when a country is going to ruin!, did he have a strategy to prevent such men from assuming the organs of government? No, none that I’ve found. Because there aren’t any. Such men would inevitably find ways to assume the reins of political power. Adam Smith’s economic religious theories basically gave such men the keys to Pandora’s Box without providing any way to close it again. That’s because greed is an unstoppable force, and there is nothing to stop an unstoppable force from eventually assuming the absolute power they need to “deceive” and “oppress” to further their gain.
18th century England had a society and a government where businessmen did not control things. Among the old-school european elites and aristocracy, a merchant with money was not a high-class person. Class mattered. At the time of Smith’s writing, that was starting to change, as merchants with royal connections to get charters such as the East Indian company were getting enough wealth to buy off enough of the aristocracy to begin to get a voice with the King. But it was still very different at that time in Europe and even in the pirate-nation England.
In that regard, Smith’s passage sounds more like a political argument for his own time where he warned not to let the merchants get control.
Sadly, like the American patriots of the same era who warned against standing armies, corporations and banks as threats to liberty, Smith was also correct in this.
It is my belief that things started to change much earlier, at the time of Cromwell. Not to say, that Spanish and Portuguese royalties indebted themselves earlier yet and beyond imagination and thus tried to find ways to pay the interests on loans with the gold in America.
Debt is a nasty thing. This is also how the money lenders to got into the aristocratic club (by marriage).
it’s not rocket science to fingerpoint who the madman is:the zio-lib/con community.without a generalised chaos in the whole world,nuclear or otherwise,they will lose the power of living at the expense of the rest of the humanity.without an armed vigilante behind its currency,the dollar,the “printed” fortunes will be considered as fake money that the “productive” world will reject when the alternative is put in place.meanwhile the fake wealth will resist by destroying every day more the fake Roma like that historic madman,Neron.
Describing Europe as a “sincere” ally is gross overstatement.
Elegantly written essay on the unfolding process of American Global Domination as it consumes itself, and poisons all its friends, allies and vassals.
The Eurasian barrier (Russia) preserves the bulk of mankind from slavery and serfdom, the American plan for the globe.
Trump is the catalytic agent of consolidation and catastrophe. American Great Again will be very brief. As it is perceptible that the Monster has swallowed all it could reach, the rest shall flee. The Beast will succumb to ingestion of itself.
The geopolitics of military alliance and market dynamics have resulted in no purpose for the former and the heavy hand of Empire on the latter. The USA has fixed the game to steal it all.
It won’t take much to end the thief’s game.
Ishchenko lays it out nicely in this article. As always, sincere thanks to Ollie and Angelina for their superb work translating.
Great and sensible article – so true – Russia’s better at everything (it seems to me)
here guys – look at this – Russia and America – two versions of the same song – both exceptional –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqy0Eqn38yU&start_radio=1&list=RDgqy0Eqn38yU
American girl – – Santa Monica -(which is engulfed in flames as we speak) – darling girl –
————————-
but strangely enough – she turns out to be Russian
https://youtu.be/xB4iFysPm9Q
——————-
and here’s the Russian version from Russia – WOW
https://youtu.be/z0MZD29r_QQ
——————
here’s the original – a bit sexy – but the original – have to put up with it – hahaha – great sound –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJQP7kiw5Fk
sorry – but here’s a version of the same song – differently produced – still the same (Russian) American girl – amazing –
I hope Rustlan can see this too – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSePIgx2Cho
She does this one very well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf_zWJ9cKFc
its nice because she’s so innocent in her movements – no training there – cute little jumps into the air – without ballet pointy feet – nice.
Wall Street forgot the old army rule which goes like this:”He who wants to control the entire territory ends up controlling nothing”. Instead of accepting reality, Wall Street is living in the past, issuing imperial decrees to the rest of the world and expecting the same to be obeyed. This imperial attitude will only enhance the dissolution of the American empire. In the end Europe will turn to Eurasia, followed by others.
Superb article as usual,Rostislav Ischenko.A link from one of your articles on Donbass in 2014 brought me to the Saker initially.
My worry is how Africa is(should be)responding to these global moves.The Russians are making good moves in Central Africa and seemingly,North of Africa but nothing in the Western part of Africa.And African countries don’t seem to be helping themselves in anyway. The comprador elite here March to their Western colonial masters’ orders and are oblivious of the approaching doom.The one bright spot is Kagame’s Rwanda.
It’s interesting that you mention this – our next cross posted translation will address this…
That’s the way it is all through the empire, even at its seat.
An elite that both serves the empire and which grows wealthy from the empire. For example, that describes much of America’s relations with Latin America. An elite local oligarchy combined with military and police power. We used to go protest the School of the Americas where the American military taught its “partners” how to use power, force and intimitadion to put down any opposition. All we really accomplished is that they changed the name of that place, but it was good for a yearly refresher on how the Empire operates.
The places where the Empire does not rule are the places where a revolution has occured and the people have overthrown those oligarchies and overcome the military force and intimidation. Strangely, in Empire-Speak a place where the people have retaken the power into their own hands is called a “dictatorship.” These are the peoples that the Empire hates and despises because they dared to assert their own freedom over the might of the Empire. So, whether its Nicaragua or Libya or Venezuela or Iran, the Empire passes along from generation to generations a seething hatred for these people and attempts constantly to crush them just to prove the point that they can do so. For decades American hatred towards Cuba was fueled by the strategic thinkers who didn’t want Cuba to be an example that other countries in the region can follow.
Good article but the following statement is incorrect…
“Washington will simply be a big North Korea with aircraft carriers and without communists”
The US is full of Communists, in particular the brainwashing kind known as “Cultural Marxists” — identity politics and the origins of the “social justice warrior” can all be traced back to European Communism. The trends in the West, of engineered mass-migration to attacks on motherhood and religion, can all be tagged onto the Marxist claptrap emanating from the pen of Trotsky to the conspiracies of the Frankfurt School in Germany.
This is why I hyperventilate when other writers on the Saker site pontificate positive on the Communist mind-worm. For Marx it was never about the socialism but burdening the real socialist movements with pseudo-intellectual theories, turning common-sense on its head to confound and confuse (even a dog understands the concept of private property, nevermind Aristotle), and to divide the people by getting them to attack their cherished religious beliefs.
Marx was a shill of the highest order — no way does a scion of bankers and industrialists start a socialist revolution.
Did you ever live in the USSR?
Always interesting when even the opponents of the empire use the language defined by the empire, which of course is to the empire’s advantage.
For instance, Washington claims it “left” the Iran nuke deal.
This could also be put as “the United States violated UNSC resolution 2231(2015) which calls for the removal of sanctions against Iran related to its nuclear activities. This puts the United States in violation of the Article 25 of the UN Charter which states “The Members of the United Nations agree to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council in accordance with the present Charter.”
America wants to use language that sounds like all they did was leave a party early. We should not let them.
Who Are These Russians And Why Do We Hate Them?
https://youtu.be/gw_nPUI6wwk
well it maybe worthwhile to just remember, what the most wanted terrorist by us said in an interview ,”they are the real great satan”…he shoulda know cause they bank rolled him in the land of poppy.
Igor Shishkin (Russian publicist, historian, deputy director of the Institute of the CIS; born 1959
in city Zaraiks, Moscow Region):
Manifestations of Nazism in Ukraine are benefical to the West
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZGX0Nn4hUc
Swastika over Ukraine. Prosperity of Fascism. Right sector, Azov, Donbass
Country without incentive / channel Erich Hartmann, Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqTr5j_SpSY
You can change the videos’ subtitles to English
It was clear that the Russian fleet would not leave Sevastopol – (Yevgeny Murayev)
[Yevgeny Murayev (ru Евгений Мураев) Ukrainian politician, economist and lawyer,
born 1976, in Zmiyiv, Kharkov Region]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMoq_tYBo_k
You can change the video’s subtitles to English
After all you can’t catch 10 flies with 10 fingers, as Mao is known to have said once of super power, US.