by Peter Koenig for the Saker Blog
A shift in the world’s power base, alliances and economic strength, will undoubtedly happen within the coming years. In fact, it’s already ongoing. But not necessarily according to Klaus Schwab’s (WEF) “The Great Reset”. “Not necessarily”, because We, The People, can stop it. Plus, there are nations and their allies, who do not agree and won’t accept the enslavement of much of the world through the self-anointed powers of an ultra-rich elite.
The Saker, in his blog “Big, huge changes, in the near future (a tentative list)” (26 September 2021) https://10.16.86.131/big-huge-changes-in-the-near-future-a-tentative-list-of-the-major-ones/ has covered most of the geopolitical transformations that are most likely taking place in the foreseeable future.
Consider the SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – has just integrated Iran as new member. This – in the west – little-talked-about organization, association of eastern countries, created by China and Russia on 15 June 2001, started out with 7 Central and East-Asian members, Republic of Kazakhstan, the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan.
Since then, have joined, India, Pakistan and now Iran. Associated members are Malaysia and Mongolia. Which makes the SCO one of the most powerful, possibly THE most powerful, socioeconomic and defense strategy organizations in the world – with nearly half the world’s population and about one third of the world’s GDP.
One could undoubtedly ask, what does India have to do in this club? – India is swinging from West to East to West, where ever the crumbs of fortune seem to be larger. Recent photographs of India’s PM Narendra Modi with President Biden, together smiling to the media – speaks for itself.
Well, for sure, there are macro-strategic reasons for keeping Modi’s India in the SCO-Association. The day will come when India will be India again – not just expressed by the will of the people, but also by her leaders.
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As well illustrated in The Saker’s essay, the west is destined to break apart and eventually collapse. Its reminiscent of the picture of al falling airplane, where the passengers are arguing and thrashing out on each other, while the rapidly descending plane is breaking apart – and soon hitting the ground. And probably goes up in smoke. It’s most likely not going to be that dramatic – but perhaps close.
Indeed, Europe cannot decide whether they are belonging to the western AngloZion block that has also captured Australia and New Zealand – or to the much stabler, and much more peaceful and congenial mega-continent – Eurasia. Just a couple of figures to dwell about: 55,000,000 km2 (21,000,000 sq mi), and 5.4 billion population, as of October 2019 – about two thirds of the world population.
It’s actually a no-brainer. We will soon see whether Europe, the European Union, eventually will fall apart for not knowing where to belong, or make a last-minute right decision. It’s a pity, that the “system” insinuating ruling the World Order, does not see, or not want to see, that they are betting on a paper tiger – like NATO – to come to its rescue.
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Let’s look at AUKUS. It stands for Australia, UK and US and aims at modernizing the primary beneficiary – Australia – over the coming decades to take up security challenges in the Indo-Pacific
The plan is to give access to cutting edge military technology to Australia by its two partners, including futuristic capabilities like artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. This refers to the recent deal of US/UK built nuclear submarines, canceling the submarine contract Australia had with France.
See this https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/aukus-programme-an-explainer/articleshow/86282058.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
This, AUKUS deal for unprepared France, annihilated a US$ 66 billion equivalent Australian contract with French majority state-owned Naval Group to provide 12 conventional diesel-electric submarines for Australia.
And imagine, this is just one of the first “deals” of the rather new AUKUS alliance. What may follow, are more such self-centered, immediate-profit-oriented deals that help further breaking apart the once-upon-a-time so powerful western alliance.
The new AUKUS deal will provide Australia with nuclear powered submarines. But the agreement is so new, neither cost nor time frame are so far public knowledge.
France withdrew its ambassadors to the United States and Australia after U.S. President Joe Biden revealed last week a new tripartite alliance including Australia and Britain that would allow Australia to amass a fleet of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines.
Russia Today (RT) sums it up: It is no surprise, then, that the newly forged Atlantic-Pacific triple alliance between the US, Great Britain, and Australia, known as AUKUS, has caught the eye of Russian leaders and defense chiefs. Announced on 15 September, the pact was presented as targeting China. However, it’s clear its geopolitical implications won’t be felt in Beijing alone.
Initially cautious, Moscow’s response has quickly become more critical. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, has denounced AUKUS as the “prototype of an Asian NATO,” set to expand, and directed against both China and Russia.
The essence of AUKUS is not complicated. While it covers various areas, such as cyber and artificial intelligence, its core is the transfer of technology from the USA to Australia. And not just any technology, but that of nuclear-powered submarines, which, until now, have been in the possession of only six states: China, France, Great Britain, Russia, the USA, and – in a complicated manner dependent on Russia – India. And of course, never to be mentioned: Israel.
In conclusion – Moscow may, accordingly, expand its own nuclear submarine fleet in the Pacific. In such a world, the already existing strategic partnership between China and Russia would only get stronger.
In parallel to this AUKUS treason on France, Biden is hosting a Quad summit (Quad Alliance = Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a strategic dialogue between the United States, India, Japan and Australia). While the topic is not official news yet, it’s not difficult to guess that the subject is how to “contain” – speak “aggress” Russia and China. And again, strangely, prominent SCO member India plays along.
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There is the economic impact such a deal may have, not only in figures of hard money, but also as a precedent. No rules are respected. This is the “free market” of the New Brave World, under which not even traditional allies are respected and secure.
It is difficult to predict how France under Macron will act in response. Macron is certainly no DeGaulle. President Macron – or his aids, have insinuated that in response to the abrogation of the Aussi-French nuclear submarine deal, France may exit NATO. We can easily speculate, that’s what DeGaulle would have done. That would be something to be proud of for France and, in the long run for Europe too. But it is unlikely to happen. Macron is “guided” by darker forces.
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This socioeconomic and political break-up of the so-called western alliance, will certainly hurt a lot of people, but the world, Mother Earth, will survive, and most of those who have not betrayed their believes may too.
It is unfathomable what the onset of covid has destroyed in terms of socioeconomic wealth and simply, wellbeing. People in the Global South, about whom hardly any wester politician speaks, are dying, from hunger, despair, disease – and merely from desperation. According to the World Food Program, close to a billion people are already suffering from famine or are at the verge of seriously suffering from food scarcity.
The imminent break-up of the west will accelerate the shift of economic and political power to the east.
Europe has not much time to decide whether they belong to the Future – the east – or the defunct and decaying past, the west (self-destruction by egocentricity and self-imposed empire). It requires both, the (western) people to wake up and take back their governments, abducted by the dark invisible forces; and the human strength to survive on a level of no-revenge, non-aggression, despite enormous sacrifices that may have to be made to salvage our civilization.
Yes, it’s possible. We can do it.
Peter Koenig is a geopolitical analyst and a former Senior Economist at the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), where he has worked for over 30 years on water and environment around the world. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for online journals and is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed; and co-author of Cynthia McKinney’s book “When China Sneezes: From the Coronavirus Lockdown to the Global Politico-Economic Crisis” (Clarity Press – November 1, 2020)
Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization. He is also is a non-resident Sr. Fellow of the Chongyang Institute of Renmin University, Beijing.
It is quite puzzling that otherwise astute analysts who rightly accuse the US of an “with us or against us” approach, in turn accuse countries like India of not being fully in their camp. In other words at a meta-level they are advocating the same thing: two camps, one pro-US and one anti-US.
India, it is clear rejects both the American/Western and the growing Chinese led-approach. If it was not for Western antipathy towards Russia, Russia too would have followed the same path – indeed Putin has often spoken of wanting to have good relations with the West as well as the East. This maintains ones freedom of action for its own sovereign interests.
India maintains deep strategic ties with one of the two houses of Evil in Western eyes – Russia including buying the S-400 in the face of US ultimatums; as also nuclear plants and oil and other commodities. India has rarely voted against Russian interests even recently (for example in Crimea where it abstained) and usually votes with Russia.
At the same time India needs Western technology, investments etc – something that China quite astutely already obtained having had a 14 year head start over India (China opened up to the West in 1976; India in 1990) and now is building and in some cases surpassing the West. India also has a lot of cultural ties with the West via its large diaspora.
India’s main geopolitical foe is not the US but China which has been expanding its muscle in its near abroad (like the US did in the Americas in the 1800s as it gained strength). China has strengthened its infrastructure along the disputed border with India building bases, supply lines, arms depots etc with India years behind in catching up. Increasing Chinese intransigence commensurate with its growing self-confidence and need to assert its power, just as the US did/does, is making not just India but Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam – a country brutalized by the US and which has not forgotten it either – wary of China and using the US as a counterweight.
It seems Russia understands India’s position perfectly and possibly even welcomes it as China gets more and more powerful and starts to need Russia less-and-less.
This era is indeed fascinating as the West loses its undisputed dominant position with various powers jockeying to ensure they maintain their sovereignty/regional spheres of influence.
India is a feudal/caste system, virtually unchanged for the last five centuries.
It is the antithesis of a modern and progressive society and is at least two hundred years behind China in progressivism
Please do a modicum of reading into the East India Company.
Who was behind ensuring the caste system remained?
And if you don’t think the Brits wouldn’t exploit religious dogma for their advantage, look into how they created Wahhabism, and then used that to take control of “saudi” Arabia.
Please bear in mind that India trying to take-on China is a stretch, definitely a stretch. China’s economy at USD15Trillion is 5 times India’s, which is USD3 Trillion. China is also way ahead in science and technology; it makes its own everything and is factory to the world, while India hardly produces any world-class products. India has 40% of its children malnourished (Statistics of UN Health agencies, not mine), while the Chinese are a healthy and well-fed lot. In social conditions the contrast is glaring: India with its heart-breaking scenes of poverty, squalor, unhygienic living conditions for a majority of its population, people defecating in streets, and other horrors, while Chinese cities are the cities of the future. A well-fed, well trained and disciplined people, the Chinese are emerging as world leaders in many facets of human life: performance in sports and Olympics (India for its size barely a handful of medals); performance in publishing original research papers in world journals; and a general societal ability to absorb and use the scientific temperament, while India remains entangled in ancient superstitions, religious disharmony, and religious rioting and in-fighting.
Indian delusions of grandeur and seeking world-power status come across as a tragi-comedy. The focus should have been on economic development, social welfare, education, health, scientific nutrition for its malnourished people, spreading of scientific temperament, etc. It suits the US to use India in its Empire-maintaining games and wars, but it would be very unwise for India to make itself into a battleground. It is time India settled its differences with all its neighbors, resolved boundary disputes, and recognized that neighbors are permanent. India may gravitate towards the US today and somewhere else tomorrow, but geography and neighbors are unchangeable.
There’s nothing wrong in wanting to maintain independence both from the United States as well as from China.
The problem is, most people who claim this route seem to think it’s 50/50. Some even claim the US already is the weaker side.
Tell me, what is India’s lingua franca? What are India’s most used social media and where are they based? What are the nationalities of ultimate shareholders of major Indian corporations?
Can India choose not to use SWIFT system? And financially, do the yuan and the dollar have the same power? What about Hollywood’s intangent cultural soft power? Does Bollywood rival it outside of South Asia?
Overall power balance feels about 80/20 to me, towards the United States.
There is nothing wrong in maintaining independence. As a matter of fact that is a desirable policy, provided it gives some consideration to ethics and decency in international relations. To maintain absolute neutrality when a powerful country commits aggression and war would be unethical and against human decency. Whatever happened to our sense of justice?
The problem with India is not that it is independent. Its problem is that it wants to act like a world power by riding on the back of the US. Now anyone who thinks that he can become powerful just by becoming friends with a big bully needs a reality check. Nor can India become a big boy by riding on Chinese or Russian or any other back. A real world power is one that leads the world in noble and progressive ideas; in science, technology, education, values, vision, and human dreams and human kindness. Wanting to beat up others is not exactly a sign of power, it is the sign of a cruel and perverted nature. In India’s case, dreams of lording it over others is a tragi-comedy because of so much poverty and misery in India on the one hand, and an inability to physically win a war against any serious adversary on the other. India’s dreams are like the dreams of a beggar riding a horse yielding a whip against others. If only it dreamt of becoming rich and promoting human progress and prosperity, starting with its own people, perhaps it would have made real progress by now.
Perhaps the real culprit in the world today is the US and the collective ‘West’. They have lost their own humanistic values and ideas and are now the main perpetrator and promoter of violence, wars, aggression, and all sorts of horrors. And among this devil’s keen apprentices is India.
You, Indians and China fight for some rocks in Himalai.
Never seen such a stupid reason for conflict.
India and China could cooperate and create powerful economic alliance.
But human stupidity is monumentally huge
Hi Bosnian Croat,
Apologies as I am probably stating the obvious here, but many of the major South and East Asian river systems are sourced from the Himalayas. So in addition to being a strategic plateau by virtue of their height, the area is key to controlling water resources in a heavily populated and fast developing region.
I’d also like to point at the geology: when the Indian continent slammed into Eurasia millions of years ago it uplifted these huge mountain chains. This helped expose vast amounts of mineral wealth that would normally be hidden deeper down in the earth. Much of this still remains untapped.
So yeah, there is some method to the madness, even if I completely agree with you about the potential for lucrative partnerships rather than violent competition. One wonders how things will play out in this crucial part of the globe. I am not feeling that optimistic right now, sadly.
Don’t forget that the US WANTS China and Indian to be in confrontation.
Its the old divide et impera again…
Also, both China and India are supwerpowers, maybe not in the US vs Russia sense, but getting there very fast.
Can you imagine them standing together with Russia against the Empire?
Finally, see how Yugoslavia was torn apart by the West – and we cannot just blame that on human stupidity either: there WAS a plan to dismember Yugoslavia and to “show Russia” what would happen to her next.
Putin prevented that (and Primakov understood it early on).
Xi is, I think, a Chinese Putin.
India is still “looking” for one (I mean that figuratively, not literally).
so that is much more complicated than just human stupidity (although I admit that human stupidity is one of the most powerful factors in all politics!).
Cheers
East-Asia is not wary of China. China & East-Asia are bonded together by ASEAN + RCEP + CPTPP trade blocs. Next, will come a defence pact between this countries. India is isolated in South-Asia. That’s why India has become a stooge of USA. No country in South-Asia wants to be dominated by India. That’s why they seek multilateral win-win mutual cooperation & benefits with China. Even Bangladesh & SriLanka wants to join RCEP trade bloc….
“India, it is clear rejects both the American/Western and the growing Chinese led-approach.”
And neither does India have its own approach. India does have a mighty problem to resolve.
India cannot accept the Chinese led approach because it has a border dispute with China. It cannot accept the US led approach because it knows it will always get the short end of the stick (especially seeing what happened to Afghanistan recently).
Is this a real dilemma?
Chanakya says: “India’s main geopolitical foe is not the US but China…”
And that is exactly the problem with India: it lacks basic understanding of the geopolitical nature. Ask Russia, why doesn’t Russia consider China a political foe?
Chanakya says: “China which has been expanding its muscle in its near abroad (like the US did in the Americas in the 1800s as it gained strength)”
Nonsense. China is the most moderate power in the world, given its economic, technological and military powers: it has NOT been involved in a war for decades, all its wars were in the its borders, and it didn’t assert anything beyond its own territorial claims. No major, or even middle power countries in the world has shown such restraint.
The South China Sea claim is inherited from the Republic of China (Taiwan) in 1947. China’s naval fleet easily dwarfs the combined strengths of all ASEAN countries, yet China consistently advocates settlements through negotiations on those disputed islands/reefs. China’s island building in South China Sea was in response to decades of island building efforts by other claimants like Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia in the same area.
Chanakya says: “China has strengthened its infrastructure along the disputed border with India building bases…”
So has India.
Chanakya says: “Increasing Chinese intransigence”
Which is another nonsense. China has offered to settle the border dispute with India for decades, but repeatedly rejected by India. Meanwhile, China has settled its border disputes for all its neighbors, like with Russia, where China gave up over 90% of its claims. Or with North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, … etc.
Chanakya says: “Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam … wary of China ”
All these countries (and many more) know that China has no territorial ambition on them, nor interested to interfere with their internal affairs or political systems. India is projecting a lot of its own ambition on China, and often uses Western propaganda to divide China with ASEAN.
China and Russia only come to sell. If you come as a trader, the relationship is only transactional and full of noisy haggling.
Come to India as an investor, India will sit down and talk with you like a partner.
For all the hate on India here, they must be doing something right.
What about North Korea?
They have the missile technology, the submarines and nuclear warheads. If they can actually put a nuclear warhead on a missile has yet to be shown.
“It requires both, the (western) people to wake up and take back their governments, abducted by the dark invisible forces; and the human strength to survive on a level of no-revenge, non-aggression, despite enormous sacrifices that may have to be made to salvage our civilization.”
There’s no way that the USA can become a “normal” nation again, Peter, one that works for a living and pays its bills. The “dark invisible forces” are about to nuke the US economy and the dollar by forcing a default on our $28 trillion debt. Republicans in Congress just set that process in motion by refusing to raise the debt ceiling.
As you said back in January, “We have become enslaved to the Beast. The Beast calls the shots on boom or bust of our economies, on who should be shackled by debt, when and where a pandemic should break out, and on the conditions of surviving the pandemic, for example, social confinement. And to top it all off – the instruments the Beast uses, very cleverly, are a tiny-tiny invisible enemy, called a virus, and a huge but also invisible monster, called FEAR. That keeps us off the street, off reunions with our friends, and off our social entertainment, theatre, sports, or a picnic in the park.”
You also said that there is no way out of this predicament except by separating ourselves from the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and print our own US-economy-based money. That would mean creating a real publicly-owned central bank. Problem is, The AngloZIONIST Empire will never let that happen. Not only will they nuke the US economy but all of humanity as well in an apocalyptic final battle between good (them) and evil (everyone else) that crazy US chosenites of all stripes pray will happen soon. Zionism is an apocalyptic death cult, Peter. There’s no getting around that.
Bingo! Couldn’t have said it any better, Tommy! The AZ’s have us right where they want us and there ain’t gonna be any way out of that (save for collapse) at this late point, even if we had the wherewithal, which we definitely don’t.
Collapse will be the least of it. Wait til these fiends follow through on drastically reducing the planet’s human population with galloping climate change, pandemics, and especially, nuclear warfare. That will make the Earth only habitable for self-replicating robots and AI profit algorithms. Maybe they’ll keep a few of us around as pets.
Well put. I only have a few minor points. To wit:
Forget about Hindunazi India and the Euro-trash. They have nothing to contribute to the emerging world at the hands of industrious, decent peoples and leaderships. Granted, to me Narendra Modi is just a particularly obnoxious crackpot posing no real threat neither to China, nor to Russia, but still he and his ”entourage” should never be tolerated in an association for serious global cooperation such as the SCO. As for the clowns in the EU, they are enemies of the overwhelming majority of the world’s peoples. The Eurocrats are fully committed to neoliberalism at home and abroad. It’s good that they, unlike Modi, won’t have anything to do with the SCO.
On a lighter note, my gut feeling regarding the AUKUS garbage — especially against the current backdrop of resounding imperialist setbacks and defeats — is that it’s just Another Useless Kindergarten of Utter Snowflakes. Australia intimidating China? Forget about it.
Last but not least: Whenever GDP statistics are being mentioned, it should be kept in mind exactly what forms part of them in different parts of the world. The West’s parasitic FIRE driven, ’post-industrial’ GDP as opposed to the SCO countries — Russia and China especially — whose GDP and development strategies are firmly based in industrial production of material necessities. Once this aspect is duly considered, the ongoing shift in the global balance of forces instantly makes a huge leap ahead.
The day will come when India will be India again …
No way Peter.
The day when India was looked upon as a leading light in the NAM is long past.
Modi’s Hindutvas have ‘found’ a winning model for remaining in power in Hindu majority India: majoritarianism. In the main India’s past leaders have kept that poisonous political philosophy at arm’s length, mindful of the bloody events surrounding British India’s partition. But not Modi; it’s his winning formula — Hindu chauvinism backed by RSS goons.
Modi’s India wants to compete with PRC on the world stage. Fat hope. In my view PRC’s acquiescence to India’s entry into SCO is a sign of confidence. India’s joining Quad, a sign of desperation and a tacit admission that it can’t even compete regionally.
Last week Brazil started to build the reactor prototype of the first nuclear submarine of the country planned to be finished in 2030.
There are 5 planned with only the last being nuclear.
2 are already at the Atlantic.
Brazil bought from France the Scorpene project and modified under the company’s supervision. Also bought a naval base project, already built, adequate to those ships
The reactor is 100% Brazilian.
@ Tommy Apeiron
” The “dark invisible forces” are about to nuke the US economy and the dollar by forcing a default on our $28 trillion debt. Republicans in Congress just set that process in motion by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. ”
The so called “debt ceiling” is an artefact from the WW1 era when the US monetary system was quite different from today. In the current US monetary system it has no intrinsic reason to exist, although it appears to have a political purpose in that it serves as a basis for public theatre when TPTB wish to invoke it. I am confident that yourself and others can recall or research the numerous past political squabbles over the “raising the debt ceiling” issue. It’s always the same script only the date changes.
No one, not the “dark invisible forces” nor the GOP, Russians, Chinese, Goonies et al are going to be “forcing a default on our $28 trillion debt.”
Many observers appear to have a misconception of how the monetary system actually works?
For the Fiscal Year To Date:
The US Federal government has already redeemed this Fiscal Year (aka paid back) to said holders of US Public Debt {Government Account Series] $ 99,586,360,000.
https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/files/21092800.txt
I don’t have the time nor the Saker blog space to explain the mechanics of the US monetary system. Nonetheless, should the US lawmakers choose to “default” ???
It would be the equivalent of a “28 Trillion” one time tax on the “Bondholders” / “US Public Debt Holders” . Such a thing would be an anathema which the ruling elites (aka “Bondholders” / “US Public Debt Holders”) would not tolerate, in my humble estimation.
After all, the moment before those dollars were classified as “US Public Debt” they were US dollar bank deposits. When those dollars classified as “US Public Debt” mature, they will once again be US dollar bank deposits.
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The US Federal Reserve is a construct of The US Federal Government. It is the Sovereign Currency Issuing US Governments’ Bank. The Chairperson of the US Federal Reserve is appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the United States Senate, not a private sector cabal of bankers (officially). The private sector banking sector by legal construct, has a dominating influence within the Federal Reserve system and is certainly an issue for all.
Setting the above aside for the moment.
Whether or not one argues that the US Federal Reserve is a Privately controlled construct, is not relevant to the real world we all live in.
Why ?
The US Federal Government like many organizations have an formal Organization Chart. It is available here if anyone is interested. https://www.usgovernmentmanual.gov/ReadLibraryItem.ashx?SFN=Myz95sTyO4rJRM/nhIRwSw==&SF=VHhnJrOeEAnGaa/rtk/JOg==
However, what matters in the real world today as always, is the “Informal Organization Chart”.
The US Federal Government has been de facto purchased by the Oligarchy, MIC, Deep State …. use whatever term you like. aka ( Owners ) Please recall President Obama receiving his orders from Wall Street on Cabinet Positions as a recent example if needed.
Therefore, opining about the evils of the US Federal Reserve System as it now exists is redundant. Perhaps the current Federal Reserve System could be destroyed and replaced as many suggest?
I ask in earnest, what the difference would be ?
The, aka ( Owners ) will still be the aka ( Owners ).