First, a quick update on Kazakhstan: the CSTO will begin its withdrawal tomorrow and that operation will be completed by the 19th of January (dunno if anybody will inform Blinken about how quickly the Russians leave).
This operation was truly a triumph for Russia and her allies.
It is said that hope dies last, and today it appears that whatever hope we might have had has died. A week long series of negotiations has apparently yielded absolutely nothing. To the extent that there were some sane voices advocating for a negotiated solution, these voices have now been drowned by the huge choir of hysterically russophobic politicians who, feeling safety in numbers, have told the Russian bear to get lost.
This is a triumph for the US Neocons and for their proteges in the EU.
So where do we go from here?
It is quite obvious: Russia will begin a policy of unilateral actions aimed at advancing vital Russian national interests. Many of those actions will turn up the pain dial for the US/EU/NATO. Rather than trying to guess what will happen next, I rather wait for those unilateral actions to become public.
One good news is that the Zircon missile is now officially accepted for service. Good timing for sure.
I will conclude this short post by saying that in my strictly personal opinion, now would be a good time for Russia to sever all her diplomatic relations with at least the worst offenders in the West, beginning with the USA itself, of course. Why?
Because having diplomatic relations with friends, partners or generally civilized and trustworthy counterparts makes sense. Most western countries don’t qualify, so what is the point?
77 years after the end of WWII, the West has come a full circle and is back to its usual messianic homeostasis: racist megalomania, delusions about its own invulnerability and invincibility.
This sends a powerful and important message to all of Zone B, especially China.
Was Russia right to engage in these negotiations?
Yes, absolutely. A country that lost 27 million of its citizens to western megalomania had the moral duty to try to do everything to avoid another war. Yes, the chances of success were infinitesimal. But morally, Russia had to try and she did.
Now that her hands have been untied, she can now do whatever she deems needful.
Good.
The main question now is this: how high will be the price this time around to bring the messianic West back to reality?
We will soon find out.
Andrei
“One good news is that the Zircon missile is now officially accepted for service. Good timing for sure.”
I am sure that this is one of the reasons why Russia waited so long for non-ultimatum. Eagerly wait to see more “other reasons” deployed.
“how high will be the price this time around to bring the messianic West back to reality?”
Not more than 7.9 billion
why? would you care to explain?
Please forgive me, but in my opinion, Russia should take us down memory lane and pop a nice remake of the Tsar Bomba over the area where it was detonated before. And do it to remind the West of the end result of their stupidity. And to state that we can never recover from such a calamity. Everyone will suffer.
That is gonna be dropped on the Ukraine Nazis.
The Grumpy Bear, Sergei Shoygu will ask all ladies to vacate the EU parliament and all ladies vacate the new all glass NATO HQ.
The Scary Bear,General Valery Gerasimov, will continue to look on with that sullen sour look of a heavy weight boxer. He is just waiting for the bell to ring. The Russian military all have the DNA of Stalingrad in their blood.
God help Europe:
The winter of 1944-45 is about to return. If you are a Berliner your Government has help put you into the matrix…it will all seem like yesterday, in a flash.
WW2 = 27 million Russians dead but not forgotten.
Thank you same sex America.
The End Time is gonna include you big time.
What a total waste, all for keeping fake FED note’s circulating down the “S” bend of history.
Indeed.
Check out Revelations 18, especially the parts on one hour and doom. Also, the mourning seafarers, quite apt with all the container ships stuck off the US coast.
This might come sooner than later. Much sooner.
WOW
Just read the 18 Revelation.
Try a little modern revelations .The Harbinger By Johnathan Cahn. Once you read that book you will be checking The Saker twice a day. The Book is either fiction or the author is being guided by a unseen hand. It has to be the latter.
Vacate the ladies? No! They’re major players and equals now! They too will pay.
The Russians are Masters In Diplomatic Skill; so cool, ever repeating ad nauseam to a Childish audience.
I think the exposure of Russia’s Unilateral Action will be unveiled during the address of President Vladimir Putin to the Russian Federation this Month.
I Thank God for Russia having someone like Vladimir Putin as a President in this trying times.
Thank You Andrei for your excellent analysis always. May Grace!
Nothing will happen. There will not be war in Europe. There will not be war in Asia. The europeans are too dependent on Russian oil and gas. They will not wreak their economies thus destabilizing themselves internally. The US is too dependent on Chinese trade and consumer goods and will not (further) wreak its own internal stability. Fear, chaos, hysteria, and tension is the stock and trade of the US ruling elite. It keeps the peasants distracted, fearful and confused, and it keeps the dollars flowing to the military industrial complex–that is the investor/donors who control both parties and whose interest is profits, not annihilation. There was never the slightest chance that this confrontation would be defused. Tension benefits the MIC and will continue indefinitely.
“The europeans are too dependent on Russian oil and gas”.
Rodrigo, I fear there is a slight linguistic confusion here. What, exactly, do you mean by “the Europeans”? The estimated 447 million people of the EU, the estimated 68 million of the UK – or the tiny groups of politicians, business leaders, and plutocrats who actually rule Europe?
The former have no active role at all. Even if they could find out what is really happening – thus breaking free from the stifling blanket of mainstream media and government lies – what could they do? It’s not as if they live in real democracies.
The latter group control and decide everything, and most of them could not care less if Europe goes up min flames along with its 447 million (or 515 million) people. They have their “political capital”, and they can fly to the USA or somewhere safer – Patagonia, new Zealand, etc. – within a day.
Correct!
he is not wrong thou. the economic leaders like to earn money more then to wage war. and if is a possibillity that a war is not profitable then they will not make a war. and to loose a WWIII against Russia will be very likely not profiable so there will be no war at all.
In the words of American Major General Smedley Butler, “By putting [our scientists] to this useful job… building greater prosperity for all peoples… we can all make more money out of peace than we can out of war.” And the general said this in 1935. The “War is a Racket” conflicts are less about profit and more about power, control, and slavery.
Some of the economic leaders may not like this, but just like how Henry Ford did not like it in the previous regime change world war, it becomes a choice of going along with the military leaders or ending up on their “axis of evil.”
Do you think that any where will be safe in a nuclear war?It will be world war 3 nowhere to hide.l hope that nobody wishes or aspire for such a global disaster. It will not be a video game.
We are past the point of “not a chance of a new war in Europe”. Anything goes now, even NATO admits to it.
Further NATO expansion to the East will be a clear act of agression and will deteriorate already non-existant relations between West and Russia. Russian cannot allow that, she must strike on it it’s own terms while she still has a chance to do serious damage.
Dark times ahead.
There is a strange phenomenon that abounds and the basic premise seems to be that ‘there will never be a war’, as if we don’t habitually fight wars of varying size and intensity on this planet on a fairly regular basis, and have done so since our inception.
While there is no doubt that what a lot of what transpires is definitely in the realm of the ‘Kabuki’, there is equally little doubt that the train is quickly separating itself from the track and I think one of the more important things to take into account here is that Russia quite simply cannot retreat any further.
No sane person wants a war, but that certainly does not mean that we won’t get one all the same.
It’s called “cognitive dissonance.” People don’t want to believe that something will happen because they fear the consequences – so they decide subconsciously not to believe it.
Also called “head in the sand” in laymen’s terms.
I’m Sad to repeat my words.
But the US-NATO never intended to abide by the Russian demand for security.
US-NATO will keep delaying with more talks until they are ready and the terrain conditions are opportune to attack Russia in February.
All I see at this point is for Russia to mobilize and take action before NATO gets its opportunity.
Russia should now make a public warning that foreign troops in Ukraine will be attacked if they don’t leave Ukraine before February 1. That is not a declaration of war, but a warning.
Russia should then take the threat by NATO to the UN for international support.
If the UN fails again, it will be important for Russia to first strike US installations threatening Russia, and upload video of the Attack on the internet. Maybe attacks by use of stealth Jet or special op forces.
By uploading videos of Russia striking overseas forces it will start a heated debate in overseas nations whether their involvement is sane. And it will instantly make the population in smaller Nations realize the risk of being involved with NATO in an attack against Russia.
The western population could defuse the war, if they see videos of the military installations facing Russia from Romania, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic Nations being striked by Russia.
People living in those Nation could save their own country from destruction by documenting these threats as they stand today, and upload it to Rumble or other internet platforms.
The videos coming out of Syria saved Syria as a Nation.
Serbia and Libya was not so lucky.
Sadly I see war in February.
It’s possible the West might try to start something in February but Russia will do nothing kinetic before Feb 20th (end of the Beijing Winter Games).
I suspect that after what happened at the time of the Sochi games, Russia may do whatever she feels she needs to do, whenever she feels she needs to do it, and if necessary the Olympic games could end up being ignored as a distraction.
“…I’m Sad to repeat my words. But the US-NATO never intended to abide by the Russian demand for security…”
They are not demands. They are fundamental rights that every country is entitled to.
Can’t speak for other nations, but here in down under the msm has the general population, steeple, convinced that Russia is the aggressor and any preemptive attack would only confirm the narrative and therefore stiffen the resolve.
It’s been mentioned before that zone A is very adept in its mastery of the propaganda war and such an act would only validate it.
Legende wrote
The Russian stipulations to the US are not demands.
They are fundamental rights that every country is entitled to.
My comment:
I fully agree with your view, but the US and EU don’t.
Glen Batterham wrote:
Here in down under the msm has the general population convinced that Russia is the aggressor and any Russian preemptive attack would only confirm the narrative and therefore stiffen the resolve.
My comment:
Here in the North most Viking are convinced that the US and EU are the aggressor, and any Russian preemptive attack will scare the living shit out of every EU politician and city dweller in Europe.
When the shooting starts, City dwellers, Transgenders, female voters and politicians will instantly need more safe-space than when Trump was elected in America.
And then all of Europe will promptly march in protest yelling: Yankee Go Home.
Unfortunately the intelligence of the Western population is not greater that they have to feel the consequences of their leader’s provocations, before they take action and dethrone their warmongers.
Unfortunately you are right. When even Laura Tingle on ABC states Russia invaded Crimea and Ukraine, as a statement of fact I feel generally, all is lost.
Glen, you are absolutely right in your assesment, but I’m afraid Russians gave up on western public opininion. They are now fighting for their own survival, so public opinion is not that important any more.
You wrote exactly what’s in my mind. Infact Russia should tell NATO and the US to start dismantling all their bases in the ex. Warsaw pact member countries and leave starting from 01 February till 15 February, failure to do so will face severe consequences.
You however have only addressed said issue from a Western needs perspective. Russia on the other hand does not agree with that. They want security and they want it soon. You also seem to miss the authors use of the term Western Messianism which I totally agree with.
Yes, but only when reason prevails.
Unfortunately:
Wars of the West are planned and started not by reason but greed and desperation.
Their masters are not ale to come up with a better idea for the world but war time so they make a killing.
Thanks. The non-gullible people in the West like me and the rest of non NATO world will remember history of WWIII about how much effort Russia made to avoid this war, if history again doesn’t get rewritten in favour of victors.
For Russia’s patience in trying to negotiate a peaceful way forward, even though they had the upper hand with advance weapons systems, God Almighty will grant it victory.
Sheikh Imran Hosein has concluded from evidence in the Last preserved revelation, The Majestic Qur’an, that this Orthodox Christian victory by Russia will last till the Day of Judgement, God-Willing!
And God Almighty’s Will must prevail over Satan, Anti-Christ and their helpers in human being’s machinations.
Truth eventually will prevail over falsehood. Long live Orthodox Christianity, Traditional Islam and Orthodox Jewry!
My Muslim friends tell me the same and I agree.
Russia would not have given the ultimatum if wasn’t planning to do something harsh.
USA really does still think that Russia is bluffing; they are delusional.
Russia’s patience over the last 8 years since Feb 2014 event has given it another advantage, that is, the completion of deployment of all new weapons systems.
Hopefully, the sweeping blow to NATO will be be so quick, massive and debilitating, that arrogant NATO’s head will spin for a long time in their forever decline from here on. God-Willing!
I watched Riabkov´s statements on YouTube and couldn´t help but recalls Chamberlain´s management trying to negotiate with Adolf´s Germany. Hitler had made the decision of the war and tragically everything indicates that U.S + NATO too. May God protect Mother Russia again
Amen. One reason why the collective West is looking for a war is to cancel the unpayable national debts and retirement obligations…now that the trillions of funny money is showing in higher inflation numbers for which raising interest rates will only implode the debt and derivatives bomb (Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Mgmt of Switzerland estimates to be around US$2,500 trillion).
That is a misunderstanding of appeasement. So-called appeasement was an attempt to push the Nazis towards the Soviet Union. It wasn’t an idealistic failure. It was a capitalist plot of England and France to unleash German fascism on Soviet communism.
“That is a misunderstanding of appeasement. So-called appeasement was an attempt to push the Nazis towards the Soviet Union. It wasn’t an idealistic failure. It was a capitalist plot of England and France to unleash German fascism on Soviet communism.”
I totally agree with you and it has become quite clear why Hitler did not slaughter the allied 350K troops at Dunkirk May 1940.
I concur.
As interesting as this is, it’s now going off-topic. Please take to the Cafe. Mod.
Absolutely correct, it was a plot by big business, bankers and the military establishments. Dr. Annie Lacroix-Riz (prof. emeritus, U. Paris 7th) wrote the most complete book on this. Le Choix de la Défaite, Armand Colin, Paris, 2nd ed. 2010. 679 page total, of which 67 pages are archive sources. The major French banks were loaning money for what they knew were German rearmament, while they starved French businesses with 8% loans. Czechoslovakia was a gift to the Germans, not the whim of Chamberlain. The victim nation was being gaslighted for many years. That gift increased the war production of Germany by 45% and the Wehrmacht also by 45%. The Bank of France refused to allow the Spanish Republic to use its gold stored in Paris to defend itself against the dictator, Franco. At no time did the French have a working non-aggression pact with the USSR. Lacroix-Riz opens the German archives to show that the French elites were knowingly doing the bidding of Nazi Germany at all times and in many ways. Pierre Laval get elected as Prime Minister by going to Moscow and signing a pact he never intended to honor (as he informed German diplomats). Surprisingly, a Rotschild banker accompanied Laval on this hoax of a trip. I wonder what Jews think of that. Laval was a member of the “Socialist Party” at the time. His participation in the worst of the Vichy collaborationist government earned him a firing squad in 1945. The USSR paid Skoda (owned by the French firm, Schneider) for AA artillery which were never delivered. The USSR had an extensive spy network. If those spies reported only a small fraction of what went on, it’s clear the Soviet Politburo was completely aware of the unremitting and even suicidal hostility of the French and British elites. A naive observer would be forced to wonder why the French and British military establishments were completely tranquil when Germany was building as many warplanes in a month as France or Britain built in a year, and where France only had 60 divisions to face, as they well knew, over 90 German divisions. Britain only had two, count them, two divisions for the defense of Europe! These are only the most basic facts; Lacroix-Riz nails down the who-what-where-when in detail. When Hitler actually attacked France in May, 1940, it came as a great shock to the French establishment, who had a deal with the Nazis.
Her book has two problems. The big problem is that it hasn’t been translated out of French. I have no idea why it hasn’t been. The Russians are white-hot angry about the October 2019 European Parliament resolution, a criminal slander which equates the Nazis with the Soviets. Some well-off Russians need to step up and hire a professional historian to do the translations! The other problem is that this book is dense and intended for graduate students in history. It could use a rewrote for the general public, perhaps by a historian working with Dr. Lacroix-Riz to get it published quickly.
Dr. Michael Jabarra Carley, a professor emeritus from Univ. of Montreal, wrote a highly readable book in English, 1939, The Alliance That Never Was and the Coming of World War II, Ivan R. Dee, Chicago (1999). It’s only 321 pages, and his archive sources run 36 pages. Dr. Carley has a concise focus on the diplomacy only for that one year, so it’s an easy read, but he only used diplomatic archives and the USSR archives were not fully open when he wrote 1939</i). In my opinion, Carley softened the full impact because of his reputation as the dean of Canadian history, in a nation which has never been a bastion of free speech and free inquiry. But Dr. Carley does lay out the basic fact that Britain never wanted a non-aggression pact with the USSR. I think his more recent writings don't pull punches, though. Dr. Lacriox-Riz is an articulate Communist and she never pulled any punches.
Once you understand that WW2 was a put-up job, a lot of other things make sense.
(1) In March 1939, Britain wrote a check it could not cash, and the bankruptcy should have been a tip-off. Chamberlain stated that Britain would defend Poland against Germany, but had absolutely no means. Two divisions, and no way to get them to Poland. And yet, Poland took this guarantee seriously.
(2) General Gamelin left the Ardennes forest nearly unguarded by his worst troops, who didn't even have radios. They were not expecting the Germans to attack. The idea that these logging roads were impassable for a modern army was disproven by the 48,000 German vehicles in about 24 hours. A real German attack was not what had been agreed to, I believe – but scorpions will be scorpions. General Gamelin was still running the French army in the 1950's, even after his debacle in May 1940. Whyyyy ?
(3) The intensity of the Cold War as soon as Roosevelt was dead, seems inevitable in hindsight. The swinging "mood" of Churchill, the only Conservative politician to oppose Hitler, followed later by his support for Operation Unthinkable in June, 1945, requires this hidden story to make any sense.
(4) The failure of France from 1945 on, to punish most of the "gravediggers" of France, can only be explained by the full story. They had powerful patrons.
(5) The European Parliament's 2019 Resolution is a continuity of policies laid down by the British Conservative Party, by French bankers and industrialists. IDK, but there may have been some truly Nazi individuals involved in the creation of the EU, and this may have played played a part.
It’s very relevant to this topic to know that most of the aggressors of the1930’s are aggressors in the 21st Century:
The British and French establishments and Poland. This is a deep and dangerous swamp with lots of historical continuity. Understanding that, and knowing that the Kremlin certainly knows, too, sheds light on what’s more likely. IMO, it’s a protracted struggle with some sharp points ahead, such as Feb.5 when the Olympics start. 08/08/2008 was the start of the Olympics, and also the aggression of Georgia.
Exactly. We all know the omphalos of russophobia is that little s***hole called the City of London, and has been so since 1815 at least.
It is Churchill who started the war, as soon as he was appointed Prime Minister by his masters of the city of London the Rothschild. Hitler never wanted the war. The German war machine was started by the same bankers just after the WW1 ended, long before Hitler came into power, and in contradiction with the abominalbe Versailles Treaty.
Hitler always wanted the war. Austrian Nazi scum and the minions of the rest of Nazi Europe deserved what the got. Unfortunately some of them remained and fled to the US where they nurtured the latest incarnation of Nazism called American Exceptionalism.
Hitler wanted the war with the USSR on his own terms and timing, though he did not want a war with the west. The British “triggered” the war in the east (and the west) against Hitler’s liking. If it was up to Hitler he probably would go to war with the USSR few years later, in the 1950s. Instead of Rock n Roll and Elvis we would have had WW2.
HIstorians agree that Hitler planned to invade the USSR around April 15,1941. However, the Italian army was getting mauled by the Albanians, and Mussolini requested the Wehrmacht’s support. That diversion took 6 weeks, but then the Wehrmacht had to form up its units again. so about 10 weeks total delay. WW2 might have had a different outcome, millions more killed, even the defeat of the USSR, if the Germans had invaded on April 15. The message for the 21st Century is to never be complacent.
Thank you for these reports which is what I come to your site for.
Your analysis is spot-on. I have no doubt where this is going. Russia must have known the psycho US would blow it off so Russia must already have been ready for Phase II.
I would not be surprised if Russia places nuclear warheaded missiles in allied states in Central and South America. Russia might even decide that an overt Cold War is better than playing footsie with the psycho West which would lead to the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
No need to place Russian nuclear weapons in the Americas. Better solutions include:
*Arming Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, & others to the teethwith S-400s, Calibers, MiG-35s, and other solid yet affordable weapons
*Refuse both US dollars & Euros as payment for its exports
*Oil/petroleum embargo against NATO
*Courtship of Mexico for eventual alliance
Just read this NeoHedge (oops, ZeroHedge):
“On Thursday, Rybakov appeared to rule out further negotiations, if Russia’s demands aren’t met.”
“I am always a supporter of dialogue,” Ryabkov told RTVi, but cautioned that if negotiations end with NATO’s refusal to stop expanding this would be “to a certain extent, a dead end or a difference in approaches. I see no reason to sit down in the coming days, to gather again and start these same discussions,” he said.
I don’t know if this is true but if it is then Russia is moving on to Phase II.
I have to friendly disagree with Prof. Why can the US place nuclear weapons in the EU and even outfit Germany, Turkey, and others to deliver those weapons and others not do the same? I am all in favor of Russia staging nuclear weapons in the Americas.
I meant to say ‘I have to friendly disagree with Dick Lenning’.
I have to friendly disagree with Dick. Why can the US place nuclear weapons in the EU and even outfit Germany, Turkey, and others to deliver those weapons and others not do the same? I am all in favor of Russia staging nuclear weapons in the Americas.
It is all about logistics. The newest Russian weapons, especially the Sarmat, can be launched from Russian territory and arrive in the USA just as fast as if they were based in Cuba. Furthermore, Russia would not have to spend resources securing and maintaining bases, equipment, and weapons overseas.
I agree with your sentiment about fairness in threat. That is why Russia should sell S-400s, Kaliber and Yakhont cruise missiles, and MiG-35 fighters to Cuba, and train the Cuban military to properly use these weapons. I also believe China and Russia should cancel sanctions against North Korea, and modernise their military (especially fighters) and economy. Same for Iran. Who knows, maybe Mexico will surprise us by announcing a full tank army equipped with T-14 Armatas and a full air fleet of MiG-35s and Su-57s…
“It is all about logistics.”
No. No, it isn’t.
It’s all about the bargaining chips.
Russia wants American missiles out of eastern Europe.
Russia wants American nukes out of Europe altogether.
The Americans (not unnaturally) have no inclination towards doing so if it doesn’t have to do so. And they look around and say to themselves “well, no, why should we?”.
But if there were nuclear-capable missiles in Venezuela?
And nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba?
Helllllllooooooo. Not only is that a real wakeup call for Washington, but those very systems become tangible bargaining chips that the Russians can use in finding a negotiated way out of this situation.
You don’t like my missiles in Venezuela? I feel your pain, my friend. I’ll remove them when you agree to remove Aegis Ashore from Poland and Romania.
You don’t like my Tu-160 in Cuba? Sure, who wouldn’t? Look, I’ll remove them the moment you agree to remove all nuclear-capable bombers from Europe?
Russia wants to strike a deal. But at the moment Washington truly believes that is it holding all the cards. Russia needs to have cards of its own that it can play, and those cards MUST be held in the western hemisphere otherwise they don’t have the same face value as Washington’s hand.
I suspect the proposed military deployments to Venezuela and Cuba are a note for posterity (or maybe the insectoid archeologists of the future) indicating the “in your face” black is white hypocrisy of US/NATO.
This strongly suggests that it is about to go kinetic.
And it seems the US bit hard:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article257290222.html
The Biden administration responded Thursday to threats from Russian officials that Moscow could begin military deployments in Cuba and Venezuela if tensions continue to rise with the United States, vowing a “decisive” response if it sees any evidence that the threat is real.
You are not well informed on details of the Italian debacle in Albania. Mussolini attacked Greece in October 1940. What followed was a spectacular defeat of the Italian army by the Greek army, pussed back through half of Albania, after a 6 month battle. The attackers were about 5 times the size, better equiped with modern air force and navy but were as you put it “mauled”. But “mauled” by the Greeks, who defended their home. The praise by both the West and the Russians, expressed at the rime, are easily available. As you may know this was the first European victory against the axis.
I agree. Most likely Russia could plant missiles purely symbolically in Cuba, for example, because it sends a message and that information would be dessiminated throughout the US media and to the general public which would put pressure on the ruling committees. It is a move useful in terms of the infowar. By demonstrating this possibility of nuclear war to the general public Russia would force the US to take their conditions seriously.
NeoHedge:)….laughing out loud here. Gonna Israel that one.
[1/13, 19:48] david: NATO Will conduct large-scale Drill off the coast of Russia,
2 aircraft carrier strike groups & Us sends Nuke Sub to borders Russia.
NATO will conduct a major military exercise 400 kilometers from the Russian border.
Great Britain, the United States and a number of NATO countries intend to conduct large-scale military exercises 400 kilometers from the Russian borders, in which two aircraft carrier strike groups will be involved at once – one of them will be led by the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier of the British Navy, and the second by the USS aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman “US Navy.
[1/13, 19:49] david: Two NATO carrier groups will sail north for exercise “Cold Response”
As Russia deploys the new 3M22 Tsirkon anti-ship hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea, NATO has decided to send two of its most potent naval weapons to the Norwegian-led Exercise Cold Response, the aircraft carriers “HMS Prince of Wales” and the “USS Harry S Truman”.
” NATO has decided to send two of its biggest and most expensive targets to the Norwegian-led Exercise Cold Response…”
I think that’s a little more accurate. Are they using those thousands of sailors as bait in the hope that the Russians sink them?
If so, I expect they will be quite wrong. Although I would dislike being inside a huge steel box in freezing water, knowing that at the whim of strangers hundreds of miles away I might find myself sitting on the bottom within a minute or two.
Simulated scenarios shows that one carrier is not enough to destroy S400 battalion, and that it will lose 30-40 airplanes in the attempt. So they sent two carrier groups. They think that Russian defence in targeted sector is limited to only one S400.
US carriers can’t organize any attack without constant support of Awacs, so Awacs will go down first from unexpectedly long range missile system.
Russians only have to show off one s500 launcher and no attack will happen. Even fake one will work.They
Also, Russia always has the option of just sinking the carriers before they can launch.
That was not an option in scenario.
Although there was common situation when surviving planes couldnt safely land onto carrier because it was upside down. So pilots must eject. And swim.
Blackring– Back in the day, so the story goes, a Nazi general and a Swiss general had a little chat.
The Nazi general asked the Swiss general a question : If my army of a million troops invades Switzerland, what will your army of 500 000 troops do?”
The Swiss general replied: “Each of my men will have to shoot twice”.
Yes, I greatly like the attitude! ! ! Kind of like: Freak, if you want to fight me in my own tavern, there’s going to be some furniture movin’ around, and heads busted, and blood. If some bottles get broken, they’re ‘on the house’.
I like the anecdote. My Swiss grandfather was a Sapper who was in charge of mining the whole of the Jura mountain range in preparation for a possible German invasion. He mentioned to his family at one point that they should have a good look at the Jura and enjoy the view, since it was quite possible that that view would soon never be the same… His cellar in his home was made into the local munitions depot for the whole town where he lived…After the war he was invited to Luxembourg where a Monastery gave him wine bottles from their cellars as a thank you for his cooperation. He never divulged what this ‘arrangement’ had been but he was suspicious of General Guisan and that indicates to me that my Grandfather was part of a ‘last-stand’ resistance group.
Sounds like a perfect set-up for a false flag, blame the Russians again.
Let Russia start with Nationalizing the Central Bank .
All this talk of Russian invincibility makes no sense if the central bank and media are practically a 5th column.
And also let us see if Russia keeps moving along with the WHO, WTO, and UN Agenda 2030 or not.
Russia’s Central Bank is owned by the government.
Contrary to popular myth, there are only a handful of Central Banks that are privately owned, see the Venn Diagram (Figure 3) in the middle of the page
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2019/10/18/the-ownership-of-central-banks/
Knowing how President Putin always bases his actions on legal foundations, it is quite baffling that we don’t see how ‘military-technical’ means will be used to get the result the Russians require.
It is not just the means that is a mystery, but the locus, the target for such means is not obvious.
Most look to Ukraine as the target.
I tend to think the Russians will choose a NATO target, though it may be a pure US target.
The means seem to indicate non-kinetic pressure. Cyberweapons, or strategic placement of certain weapons and defense systems in surprising places, of course, come to mind.
But these are not quite what will make a difference.
The Emperor’s Clothes comes to mind. Russia must show the stark naked defenselessness of NATO and the US.
That would require a new weapon, a new system that the West would have to surrender to.
The Zircon missile, if it had 30,000 units, would be such a thing.
If Russia and China went full production of Zircons and launchers on every type of Chinese ship around the world, the West would have to come to terms on multipolarity, spheres of influence and a detente, not a Cold War containment and strangulation of Russia and China.
Maybe some production capacity deal between Russia and China is in the works and the near future will hold such an outcome.
Meanwhile, the War Party, has not and will not budge. Why should it?
I don’t see the West winners of the talks. The talks were with no potential to produce a win.
The talks were about public perception that Russia has reasonable demands for mutual security.
Ultimatum or nonultimatum the Russians knew they had to have a mean to acquire the result they need for security.
Sometimes you talk until you have no words left, no rational approach, no time left. And then a nation uses other means.
“Russia must show the stark naked defenselessness of NATO and the US”.
Exactly as Iran did two years ago. What Iran can do, Russia can do.
“O míssil Zircon, se tivesse 30.000 unidades, seria uma coisa dessas.”
Com todo respeito, não é preciso essa quantidade.
Se você acompanha a quantidade de munição que explode regularmente nos paióis Ucranianos, pode calcular, por baixo, o que ainda há guardado na retaguarda…
Na invasão do Iraque e Afeganistão, as munições de .50 que 9s EUA usaram era da II Guerra Mundial!!!
Li sobre isso num Blog de veterano.
Portanto, há muitas opções criveis, mísseis mais antigos, inclusive, com a mesma precisão, mais lentos mas que, farão até mais estragos se não detectados.
Não subestime armas antigas, também matam.
😀
Yandex translation. Mod:
“The Zircon missile, if it had 30,000 units, would be such a thing.” With all due respect, you don’t need that much. If you keep track of the amount of ammunition that explodes regularly in the Ukrainian pails, you can calculate, underneath, what is still stored in the rear… In the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, the.50 munitions that 9s used were from World War II!!! I read about it on a veteran’s blog. Therefore, there are many criudable options, older missiles, even with the same accuracy, slower but that will do even more damage if not detected. Don’t underestimate old guns, they kill too.
Most look to Ukraine as the target.
I tend to think the Russians will choose a NATO target, though it may be a pure US target.
Unless Ukrainian forces attack first, I think al-Tanf airbase in Syria is a better target for the first Russian missile strike because:
*Russia has full legal authority to base military forces in Syria
*NATO presence in Syria is illegal
*There likely exists strong evidence of USA complicity, if not active support, for ISIS and al-Qaeda coming from al-Tanf
*NATO believes Russian firepower would focus on the European theatre, thus a strike in Western Asia/Middle East would be unexpected
It would be great if Iran simultaneously launched its own missiles at al-Tanf, in addition to a ground campaign to liberate Syria from NATO occupation (i.e. attack both US and Turkish forces.)
Maybe some production capacity deal between Russia and China is in the works and the near future will hold such an outcome.
I think a fair deal would be for China to manufacture & deliver free of charge one missile to Russia for every missile it uses for itself. For example, if China needs 3’000 A-235s, Russia will get 3’000 A-235s for “free.” Same for S-500s, Zircons, etc.
“And the man in the back said everyone attack and it turned into a ballroom blitz.”
After careful consideration I do believe you are correct. There are easy 600 isolated targets plus embassies. The Capital Police in Washington are now searching for American Terrorises {?} in uniform.
I personally have faith in the American Military to take a deep breath and just sort the sh*t out. CNN etc etc and Facebook etc will no longer be an issue.
Brandon and Camel nose will be disposed in a blink of an eye. AOC will be selling fast food on the streets of New York City.
I am ex Army and the lads would make jokes about, “Army Intelligence.” I am old now and fully aware the Army has a lot more intelligence than low IQ politicians.
Now is the time for all of us around the world to prey for the American Generals with brains and balls. (The chosen ones.) For they will for have a special place in world history….because they saved the world. Just like that Russian submarine captain years ago who saved the world, somewhere near Cuba.
Larchmonter445:
I think you’re absolutely correct. I believe we need to proceed from the following premises:
1) US doesn’t care at all about ally / vassal / client losses
2) US braggadocio attempts to conceal a vast well of cowardice
Based on this, I don’t think incinerating NATO trainers in 404 will get the message across. Military-technical efforts will , I believe be focused on threats in Eastern Europe (mainly because that’s where Russia feels the threat), such as the missile bases in Poland and/or Romania.
This will have the added advantage of showing up NATO Article 5 for what it is.
Going to be some must-see TV, assuming we don’t all get incinerated.
Cheers,
Dimitry Orlov suggest this one
“Peresvet, for instance, could blind all US spy satellites without causing any kinetic damage. The list is long and the opportunities are endless.”
Not a big bang. But game over.
My fem cents:
Destroy, “burn” or in some other way permanently incapacitate a number of key western spy satellites.
Sorry, I read now that Dimitry Orlov already suggested that.
I sincerely hope the misunderstandings can be worked out by Messrs Iskander, Kalibr, Kindzhal, and Zircon, without the need to appeal to Messrs Sarmat, Bulava, and Poseidon.
Maybe Mr Burevestnik might prove able to reason convincingly with Western leaders? By attending the next clandestine drinks party in the garden of Number 10, Downing Street, for instance.
Everything said and done leads to one conclusion: this will escalate quicker than anyone wished. The only question is who will strike first and how hard.
We are sooo eFd up. :((
Once the economic Iron Curtain between Russia and the West is in place, the next step would be for the West to attempt to destabilize the Russian government in order to replace it with one more “malleable.” The West’s wet dream is that maximum economic pain would bring the suffering Russian people to their senses. The oppressed Russians would then kick out Putin and his nationalistic cronies and beg the West for forgiveness. (I seriously believe that this is the plan.)
Consequently, in addition to severing diplomatic relations and removing all “diplomats”, Russia should kick out all Western NGO activists and turn off Western social media. Then Russia can turn its back on the West and focus on the rest of the world.
Additional to what you have said the west will bully other countries not to trade with Russia and lock Russia out of SWIFT. Countries will have to take sides where to do business. It will be interesting to see what China will do. A division in the world is definitely coming. The AngloZios have to stop the Afro-Eurasia “world island” from coming to fruition via China/Russia BRI initiatives that would herald in multipolarity and exclude AngloZio hegemony.
If economic pain can bring a suffering people to its senses, the US and European governments are living on borrowed time.
After the expected failure of the talks with the US and NATO, Russia should proceed with the awakening of the American public.
And what would be the most effective way to wake up the American public, who is largely ignorant of what is going on globally, and or still thinks the US is supreme?
Having for a while several very loud and highly visible flying objects (banging -popping -roaring), going up and down the East Coast and around the gulf (Maine -Texas) on international waters. At least for as long as US/ NATO plains continue touring the Black Sea coast. No bombs needed!
Eric Guess posted a article on December 8th of 2021. In it he wrote concerning the proposed agreement, that after the west violated such:
then at that moment, both the full force of the Russian and maybe Chinese nuclear forces that are targeted against the snake’s head D.C., NYC, London, Toronto, Canberra, Israel, will be promptly unleashed.
For the full article I leave this reference.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/12/08/putin-ukraine-is-to-russia-what-cuba-was-to-america-in-the-1962-cuban-missile-crisis/
Eric Zuess
That is insane, and the Russian leaders will not initiate an all-out nuclear war. Removed. Mod.
Russia breaking ties with the USA would be a huge change in GEOPOLITICS. Such a move is most definitely a “Rupture event.” And “Rupture events” are the key type of events in the pipeline for both western Europe and the USA mainland going forward in this decade. (As reminder, the last major GEOPOLITICAL Rupture we have witnessed is the disintegration, evaporation(?), sudden-voidance of the Afghanistan nato “project.”) If Russia breaks off ties, IMO it is a Rupture event of the order comparable in some qualities to BARBAROSSA. Such a move forces Russia deep into the the minds of nations and men instantly. Given that that world has been long plagued by a wolf ne hegemon, a tall, saintly, independent figure with a sword may be just what a Good Doctor ordered.
Russia knows exactly what it is doing, always has recently. Crimea and Syria clips wings. The next moves will probably cut them off. Russia gave it an honest go. It´s okay, as the Saker and others have said, let´s see what happens next.
John
I think that China will join in only after the Olympics. However during the Olympics when all eyes are on China is when the west will commit some heinous act.
“I think that China will join in only after the Olympics”
That’s a good one.
Didn’t you hear? US and UK exercise for new discipline : 10 000 miles swimming marathon. It’s called “Cold Response”.
Es correcto lo que se afirma. Rusia hizo este tinglado como lo practica occidente, para evitar después, si es que se diera acciones, que digan… Rusia no hizo o no procuró acuerdos o tratados. Ahora, ya no tiene esa carga moral, puede realizar todas sus acciones motivadas con justa razón, para defender sus intereses, soberanía y aliados. Fue una buena jugada de ajedrez, que todo el occidente ni siquiera supo comprenderlo. No hay duda que el oso ruso, jugó, con equilibrio y sapiencia, resultado de los hechos pasados de su historia pasada reciente. Puedo decir, un jaque mate. De ahora en adelante, ninguna acción posterior de Rusia será juzgada como agresión o a mansalva, pues, porque no les avisaron. Rusia es libre de tomar sus decisiones, sólo pensando en su nación, bienestar y seguridad.
———————
Google-translate from mod:-
What is affirmed is correct. Russia made this tinglado as it practices itself, to avoid later, if actions were given, they say … Russia did not or did not seek agreements or treaties. Now, she no longer has that moral load, she can perform all the actions of her motivated with just reason, to defend the interests, sovereignty and allies of her. It was a good game of chess, that all the west did not even understand. There is no doubt that Russian bear played, with balance and sapience, the result of the past events of its recent last history. I can say, a mate check. From now on, no subsequent action from Russia will be judged as aggression or Mansalva, then, because they were not told. Russia is free to make the decisions of it, just thinking about the nation, well-being and safety of it.
Russia should enlighten the average American as to what really transpired in 9/11. Maybe Putin himself could deliver the blow. I think it would reverberate in a disastrous way for (against) the mythology sustaining the American establishment that evermore Americans loathe. Perhaps also stating details about JFK’s assassination too?
Best idea yet! Spill the beans on their dirty secrets. Tell us what really happened.
The Russians have an old saying, when the Bear invites you to dance, it’s the Bear who tells you when the dance is over.
Financial Armageddon will happen anyway, probably in 2022. Russia would be better able than the West to withstand it, and China is putting itself in a position (see the management of the Evergrande bubble, but also of the gigantic stocks of food and raw materials) to be able to face it. In order to understand the objectives of the United States (the EU is seeking euthanasia, so anything goes for them), this must be taken into account.
It would be very useful to know the specific opinion of an expert like M. Hudson on this as well. This seems to be a situation where the right or wrong timing, and the focus on certain details, can determine a very different impact on Zone A and Zone B.
War would be a way of extending the so-called Great Reset also to the part of Eurasia that has refused to join it flatly, while retaining the ability to manage everything ‘comfortably’ from the Islands.
Was rather hoping to be drip fed snippets on the folks who are assisting the Kazakhstan Government with their enquiries, thereby prolonging the agony for those involved in the financing.
First up on the Russia front, NO MORE EXPORTS OF OIL/GAS to America, where the usual suspects are making a killing on resale to Japan/Asia & South America. Russia now being 2nd (albeit a long way ) behind Canada as America’s preferred partner. lol
As our genial host states, cease all communications with the murdering thieving US pikers in Syria and hope The Resistance step up the pain.
Time is on Russia’s side. US weaknesses are military, industrial, social and financial. If I were the Russians, I would legally place defensive and offensive complexes within reach of the USA in some places. Having thus marked its advantage, I would push, in agreement with China, an agenda of collapse of the $. I would support actors capable of delivering devastating military blows to the over-deployed US forces under the cover of plausible deniability. So much for offensive actions. For the defensive actions I would undertake a discreet cleaning of the Western networks inside Russia and in the periphery. And of course continue the policy of dismantling the Western clientelism network by selling arms and making trade agreements (Thank you Mr. Xi). The place where the harmful influence of the West can be dismantled with little means and without risk is Africa. After cutting the jihadist arc in Central Africa, Wagner continues in Mali. After the end of MONUSCO will come the turn of the CFA franc. This will put an end to the siege of the heart of the continent (the Congo) that has lasted since the Berlin conference a century and a half ago. All this will allow multipolarity to unfold, completing the defeat of the empire.
The Russian delegation did not do that well. When the possibility of redeploying missiles from Eastern Europe was mentioned, they did not jump at this point as one should. When repeatedly the Western delegates spoke of a country’s freedom to “choose its path”, they did not clarify or object that it is one thing to choose a philosophy/religion/trade relation, or internal affairs, and an entirely different thing to enter into a military alliance with someone in mind as the reason for it. Not once was this addressed publicly as one should. However, this Western concession of relocating those missiles is logically an important one. Biden from the beginning (right after he spoke with Putin on the phone the first time) gave signs that he was willing to accommodate the security concern he heard from Putin, saying that he would talk to the allies about what could be done regarding them. The concession by Sherman in this regard no doubt reflected Biden’s position and his understanding (from the start). I guess there’s a chance that this American concession will merit another meeting in the future, but who knows with all that has been reported as spoken from both sides. Still, the new information on relocating missiles was/is an objective reality, a logical thing, the rest may be noise, inaction, lack of competence, other things. The concession is like spinning there…if someone wants it. So, I was not too impressed by the Russian delegates for this reason(s).
tranquil
Even if the Sherman suggestions are genuine concessions, then it makes sense for neither side to admit it. Putin needs merely to watch and have a clear time line.
Biden cannot ever admit to removing missiles, so a relocation as part of wider military maneuvers would make sense, or at the request of the relevant governments. This would be face saving for Biden.
The task for Putin now is to have some sort of military demonstration, such that the residents of Romania, Bulgaria and Germany, demand removal of US/NATO missile bases. I doubt that Poland or the 3Bs would ever react in that way.
Watcher,
Good point. I hope so (I don’t want war either).
I hope it’s not that Biden told her but that she didn’t like it or disagreed, as could be, and then did not play the card well, or that the Russians missed this big tree in the forest so to speak. I like your view because I find the latter harder to accept; there are many sharp ones there like Putin and Lovrov that surely could not miss the sight of that concession. They may be – even both sides as you say – negotiating hard. This concession about missiles location, though, implies a final settlement for it implies no further expansion of NATO, no further militarization of that area, too many things that make it hard to say “no.” Biden deserves commendation for this key concession. However, I’m sure you know there have been wars fought that could have and should have been avoided through a better interaction between the parties, like the American Civil War and I think WWI too.
Biden received an extra $25 Billion he didn’t ask for in the Defence Budget, which is mighty white of the bipartisan 2for1 War Parties. They want results!
Maybe, just maybe, 2 punches in the face inside a fortnight, Kazakhstan & Russian Security Agreement was too much to bear and when they return home ‘tae think again’, Joe will be on the blower to Vlad informing him that he’ll have more flexibility in his 2nd term. lol. I know, he’ll be lucky to see out his 1st.
Saker,
I know you recently posted you would stop posting on this blog if (god forbid) NATO and Russia go to war. I for one sincerely hope you will keep posting from Geneva, Zurich, Stalingrad, or even Grozny, because it may prove difficult to get an accurate picture of who’s actually winning.
Be safe!
…I believe the Saker resides in Florida.
I know. What I was getting at was Florida may not be safe for “dissidents,” and foreign citizenship is no guarantee of fair treatment. Just look at Julian Assange!
This conversation is now over.
Why Washington will not budge
The American state hopes to either immediately pull Russia into a widespread global conflict which it feels it cannot lose because its military is already entrenched in 800 bases around the world. Russia cannot spread itself as thin as Washington and has only limited avenues to project power over great distances. Moreover, Russia does not have the financial resources that Washington does, especially the ability to print limitless amounts of petrodollars universally accepted around the world. Yes, Washington is going broke by amassing debt that it can never repay but it seems not to care about that. Perhaps everyone who loaned money to Uncle Sam will never see it paid back because when the hegemon rules the entire planet it will, as always, change the rules once again to suit its needs. The US, despite all appearances and all the rules which suggest it is a power in decline and even on the brink of collapse, feels invincible.
Rather, Washington feels that it has the power to make Russia collapse a second time by pressuring it everywhere, in the banks and market places for sure, but also on battlefields that used to be its own home turf or that it presently counts as allies, places like Ukraine, the Baltics, Kazakhstan, Syria, Iran and the Caspian basin, the Caucuses, perhaps Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and quite possibly all at once.
You may ask what kind of victory will such a war bring, with the very real potential for complete economic collapse in its aftermath? Ask yourself this, when have the Yanks ever cared about such practical matters? What benefits has the country realised for the 6 or 7 trillion dollars sunk into afghanistan? What harm has it caused to its credibility by pulling out of that conflict in such haste that it looked like a panicked retreat?
It doesn’t care how anyone else judges it. It believes that it can ever and always just act with impunity against anyone, no matter the circumstances. It sees no single opponent that can beat it on the world chessboard alone, and does not believe that the rest of the world would ever unite against it. It probably does not believe that even Russia, China and Iran could ever coordinate a unified action against it. It probably even welcomes a two front war in the South China Sea and on Russia’s Western frontier.
If Washington does not believe it can mobilise such a sweeping conflagration for a quick victory over its last remaining rivals, it will bank on its belief that Russia does not want war (even with superior facts on the ground), does not really believe it can win a war with the US, and will do everything possible to delay such an eventuality.
During that interim, Washington will continue in its slow motion invasion of Russia’s near abroad and sundry allies around the world. It will continue to do things like arming Ukraine to the teeth and encouraging them to invade the Donbas or even Crimea, occupying a third of Syrian territory and stealing its oil, threatening Iran through Israel, actually attacking Iran, Venezuela or even China, and heaping gratuitous sanctions upon sanctions on Russia and any nation at all friendly with Russia. It will instigate more color revolutions, some of them successful, some not, for Washington gives not a shit about the impact to the unfortunate natives caught up in its intrigues.
In short, Washington will keep on doing the barbaric things that have made the 21st century so notable thus far. Its end game will be realised when Russia looks around and recognizes that it may have stayed out of a shooting war with America for an additional 5, 10 or 20 years but now Washington holds all the advantages on the ground that it used to have. Washington will make its ultimatums to Russia and they will not back off the fight. The bastards will relish it. Manifest destiny on a global scale.
Things may not play out that way, I’m not a fortune teller, and an act of nature could change everything, but I think that is the mentality of Washington and the Neocons who run the joint. I’ve, like others, have asked a million times why are they so illogical and self-destructive in their thinking and actions? Even if they cannot have it ALL, at least they would have a big share of the pie. But that is never enough. I finally admit to having no other explanation than what I have outlined above. I think the mind set can basically be described as “hubris,” the worst case of psychopathic arrogance the world has ever seen. It is way beyond mere bluffing at poker. Washington’s response to Russia this past week was essentially a big “FU” with taunts tossed in for good measure from punk minions like Stoltenberg.
The only hope to stop this runaway freight train, and it is a real long shot, is for Russia (and anyone who would want peace over a potential world war) is to simply stop talking with the American government, and even with the governments of Washington’s craven vassals, and go directly to the public, the citizens of all these Western countries. Apprise them of what their governments are setting the world up for, because I don’t think they know–at least if the American public is an index of reality. Warn them that unless someone can get through to their “leaders,” the parade they are taking us all on will be right off a cliff. In other words, start to actually “meddle” in American and European politics. Assuming elections in the US have any real validity, suggest to the voters that they can be a voice for peace by removing all War Party Democrats and Republicans from office. Perhaps America’s foreign policies could be changed. I know, it’s a long shot, perhaps even less likely than “winning” a nuclear war. The first obstacle is that Putin could probably never get 30 seconds to speak on any American corporate media. And, since Hillary is not presently running, neither could he buy a hundred dollar advert on Facebook. As you said, Saker, hope dies last.
…actually attacking iraq—actually assassinated solemani! an act of war—fify
“The only hope to stop this runaway freight train, and it is a real long shot, is for Russia (and anyone who would want peace over a potential world war) is to simply stop talking with the American government, and even with the governments of Washington’s craven vassals, and go directly to the public, the citizens of all these Western countries.”
But how? Few people in the West hear anything that isn’t approved for consumption by their media.
Dear Andrei,
Just as much as Pepe Escobar, I do want to thank you sincerely. And likewise, not for this post in particular, but more in general for your enlightening voice in these foreboding times.
I feel sad to admit that I just don’t have any money to support you. In my younger days I maintained to donate 10% of my wages to (in those days, still real) Dutch NGOs concerned about poverty alleviation and human rights.
Alas, those “NGOs” are no longer real NGOs and I no longer have any significant income to donate 10% to them. I’m now struggling to set up my organic farm in an isolated rural place in Bolivia: my roof is leaking (buckets in my living room) and I hope to get the money together to fix it next year.
But I can’t help it: I’m addicted to know what’s going on in the world. I just need to know, if only to preserve my faith that I’m not just an animal (living day by day, without a connection between the previous and the next).
I’m getting by, growing my own food (with incredible help from my herculean indigenous wife!).
I don’t feel poor for not having a car and a big flat-screen TV, but I really do feel poor for not being able to support you and your website: please excuse me!
I’m not religious any more (I grew up in a Dutch Calvinist family), but I respect and appreciate your Christian Orthodox point of view. So, without adding “god” to my salute:
Bless you, Andrei, and long may you live to educate and enlighten me and, I’m sure, soooooo many more people, from Bolivia to Belarus and from (hopefully) de US to the UK…
Sincerely, Hans Zandvliet
Meneer Zandvliet,
Mag ik naar Bolivië vliegen om met jullie samen te leven?
Ik heb niet veel nodig. Iets om te eten, ergens om op te slapen…
Het zou mooi zijn om ook een beetje ‘manual labor’ te leren. Geen illusies zelfverstandig.
Ik was zelfs aymara aan te leren, hah!
Uit Brazilië,
met hoop dat mijn Nederlands nog niet helemaal weggegaan is.
Leo
Yandex translate. Mod. Please stay on topic – a one off. Please take discussion to Cafe:
Mr. Zandvliet, Can I fly to Bolivia to live with you? I don’t need much. Something to eat, something to sleep on… It would be nice to also learn a little ‘manual labor’. No illusions self-sense. I was even teaching aymara, hah! From Brazil, with hope that my Dutch has not completely gone away yet.
I’m sorry to be off topic, but GO ZANDVLIET! the south americans are the ultimate agriculturists: peppers, tomatoes, potatoes, vanilla. quinoa, cocoa, cotton, tobacco, corn. There is so much to be learned from them!
as you say, saker, hope dies last. i continue to hope…my hope is fully delusional, bt miracles do happen & putin would not have engaged in this charade without a well prepared well thought through plan: imo: since our last ride on the ukraine carousal, the withdrawal from afghanistan & the discovery russia had been talking to the taliban for 7yrs, a satellite mysteriously blowing up, several more new weapons launched, the incredible episode unfolding in KA…lead me to hope this whole masquerade is to allow the demented empire to keep face while descending. yes, it’s a wild last straw sorta hope bt even as stupid & crazed as they are they know they are losing & by acquiescing now they may ‘hope’ to live & work toward another day. it’s a false hope (much more worthless than mine) because in order to regain supremacy which is all they crave they have neither the education in place or the resources or the funds to do that—& won’t for a very long time. that putin could initiate the change russia has performed is a tribute to her education, long standing, & her resources. her wealth has been her citizen’s ability to think & create & love each other, themselves & their beloved mother, as well as a vast reserve of natural resources…the nato has none of the above, & certainly the us has wasted its vast privilege & gifts.
Since we are all sitting in the shade of the old oak tree revealing our fantasies I might as well give my 7.5 cents worth, I think that is the actual value of the dollar. I think the push back will be on several fronts. Maybe anti battery fire in bolshevik nazicraine with a few ammo dumps going up in smoke. Attacks on the green zone are picking up,, maybe the Rus will coordinate with Iran, Hezbollah, Iraqi resistance and Syria to start pushing back there as well, lets not forget about China in all of this. Maybe China will also get involved in Syria for payback to Erdogon for Kazakhstan. Also there is this, unconfirmed from an account on twitter GEROMAN that a Chinese ship was sparkling the eye’s of some USA pilots in a spy plane with a laser. I believe there will be coordination between the various resistance forces.
One judge lead to one county that lead to one state that lead to one, well you get the point, all have been warned.
Good analysis and entirely predictable. The Russia-China-Iran axis has obtained military and economic parity (superiority?) with the West and is becoming an increasingly assertive impediment to US global power. The US ruling elite are well aware of accelerating American economic decline and are determined to use their still formidable military power to confront the axis. Obviously, this may well lead to WWIII. This piece provides a good review of the role of the UK and France in their attempts to appease Hitler, prior to German troops invading Poland (Sept 1, 1939) triggering World War II and deadliest conflict in history. See- Appeasement: the shocking truth about the 1938 Munich Agreement (part 1 of 3) by Alex Krainer The Naked Hedgie Dec 17, 2021; Link: https://thenakedhedgie.com/2021/12/17/appeasement-the-shocking-truth-about-the-1938-munich-agreement-part-1-of-3/
Like I said yesterday, Russians need to nuke those bases in Poland and Romania, and they will probably do that. That is only way to shut up those Vatican assholes and save our children. Long time ago pope proclaim in his Bula that all planet is Vatican (Roman empire) property. All this is just long- term religious war.
Are we really sure talks have failed? The US would lose face if they caved in openly.
“…Rather than trying to guess what will happen next, I rather wait for those unilateral actions to become public.”
Thank you, Saker.
Lone Wolf
Russia does not need a war either this year or the next. The collapse of the Anglo-Saxon empire is inevitable. The deep state needs Cold War 2.0 to continue to exist. Russia and China know that the game is over years ago. This is cyclical. Western logos is exhausted (Heidegger)
Okay since 1989 up to 2007 the west slowly advanced to Russia borders. Then Putin said in Munich that they also should look at the security interests of Russia. They laughed him in the face. The west have think tanks openly developing and publishing plans how to take out Russia. The west have constant sanctions. The west have constant chemical incidents organized like the gripals etc. The west withdrawals from treaties regarding weapons etc. In the last 2 months 2 failed coups in Belorussia and Kazakhstan and now we have 3 failed talks about red lines. Planned are see above a list of military trainings in Ukraine. There are a lot of tanks in Greece and Bulgaria. I can list many more bad actions from the west against Russia. So why should the west do all this things against Russia ?
The west wants war or a war like crisis. I think they want it, because the elites in the west think that that is the only way out of the financial misery they created and not be blamed/hanged for it.
Russia knows about this dire financial situation. And have seen all the steps taken by the west since 1989. So I think Russia plays along with the game. And the rest will too. All the world is on board. The elites not only live in the west.
So how will it go. I have no clue. But I think of some medieval bloodletting. But the problems are big so I do not know if it is enough.
I do not think there will be war, at least not until Power of Siberia 2 is completed
Interesting article about bioweapon laboratory in Kazakhstan.
https://avia-pro.net/news/iz-amerikanskoy-biolaboratorii-v-kazahstane-propalo-oborudovanie-amerikanskie-uchyonye-i
Cross-posted from the OSCE thread. I suspect that this announcement is most definitely not a coincidence.
Russia says long-range Tu-22MZ bombers in Syria can reach targets across all Mediterranean
https://tass.com/defense/1387919
“”The landing and operation of Tu-22MZ aircraft at the Khmeimim air base is a landmark event,” he said. “Firstly, the crews of long-range air force have practiced using a new airfield and signaled the presence of the long-range air force in the Mediterranean region.”
The crews also practiced engagement with the Navy in locating maritime installations and “confirmed Tu-22MZ have range capabilities for targets across the entire Mediterranean Sea,” Kobylash said.”
You’re absolutely right, I also don’t see any point in engaging in diplomatic talks with the USA. They never listen to Russian grievances, nor do they even try to understand them, all they want to do is to split Russia into a dozen of small countries to mercilessly exploit them. These American crooks are always only trying to find any loopholes in all treaties anyways. It’s driving me crazy.
Vladimir may I just say, I believe the usa which I live in, will be divided into multiple pieces long before Rus.Fed. I don’t believe the people of Russia will allow that to happen. Here in america all I see is division!
Putin took criticism at home for not responding to the endless provocations by the West.
He waited until his military was ready, made very specific demands, engaged in dialog but refused to engage in endless dialog.
All of this looks very calculated and determined.
I am sure Putin knew that the West would never agree to his demands. So, I am sure that his next steps were carefully planned in advance.
It is now only a matter of time.
Putin will do something. The only question is what?
Not that war is inevitable, but is it prudent, and for whom?
Could it back fire?, weighing the pros and cons, the here’s or there’s.
Its a wonder anyone eats or sleeps anymore, they must not be paying attention.
My hunch is that Russians are too smart to launch an attack on anything in Poland – they will find some other means to penalize the collective West, without ripping open the old scars in polish souls – the opposite may happen, and the Poles may turn around slowly towards the Eastern Slavic brother – in friendship. I hope so.
@bystander 04
What about the scars in Russian souls, scars from the loss of more than 20 million Russian slavs who made the ultimate sacrifice?
At this point, hoping the Poles will slowly come to reason is not good enough to guarantee safety of Russian people.
The safety of Poland is important of course, but the Poles have to be wary enough to understand how these weapons they have taken ownership of on their soil are viewed as a deadly threat by Russia and therefore makes Poland a prime target for first strike.
Cuba. Venezuela.
Stupid Wendy Sherman just gave Russia a Gold Pass invitation to move military assets into those two countries.
After all, she was the one who insisted that there are no such things as “spheres of influence”, that “national security concerns” are no reason to get argy-bargy, and that all countries – no matter how small or annoying – are free to form military alliances with anyone they like and nobody – but nobody – has a right to object.
Rock-solid US policy. A fundamental principle from which the American people will not be swayed.
I… ummm… oh… shit… In Cuba, you say? Venezuela?!?! What the f**k?!?!
America: always as good as its word. So the Russians should take them at their word.
Just read Eric Zeusse’s article on the origins of the Deep State. Fascinating, and illuminating.
It becomes clear that these subtle and not so subtle moves by the war party are designed to ‘check-mate’ or provoke military response from Russia. How can one negotiate with opponents who’s only mission is your full unconditional submission, or failing that, your annihilation?
Russia’s ‘patience’ strategy has served very well, allowing enough time to re-define their defense capabilities, which now a decade later equal and in some key areas surpass the Pentagon’s. The consensus is that Russia has a five-year lead in a more reliable hypersonic missile design as compared to the US scramjet efforts, which have experienced a comparatively high failure rate.
Russia knows the intent of these deep staters positioning their final moves for checkmate.
Regarding sanctions; the deep staters don’t give a toss about ‘the people’. ‘The people’ are just cattle to be worked, soaked for money, then culled. Sanctions, such as cutting off gas supplies, won’t really work, because these deep staters and their minions don’t care if some of Europe’s cattle freeze to death. Such is the result of nations that accept the ungodly to rule over them, that worship media narcissists, that turn their backs on God, morality and their faith-based constitutions.
One has to think that Russia must commit to decisive action soon or the advantage will be lost, as the ‘partners’ hypersonic weapons development (and who knows what else) is accelerating.
Turning up the pain dial must necessarily include a show of force in some form, if and when mass-destructive weaponry is shipped in to the Ukraine or anywhere in the Russian sphere – which correct if I am wrong, has already happened? Kazakhstan has to be the straw that broke the camels back. Putin has indicated very clearly that Russia, at this time, believes the threat level to be very high, so we must assume the Bear is going to lash out with its claws and fangs to impress upon the wolves the meaning of ‘No’.
I’m not a military expert…but I don’t think that is necessary to read the writing on this wall. My guess? The Russians will strike, not at Ukraine, but at the Aegis Ashore installations in Romania and Poland. The Russians will obliterate these two sites with conventional missile strikes (probably Iskanders). They will then let it be known that NATO has some number of hours to remove the other offending units that now exist in Ukraine, Romania, the Baltic states and to evacuate all NATO naval forces from the Black Sea. Failure to immediately remove these units will result in their destruction.
What would the US response be? Nothing the US/NATO could do will alter the ability of the Russians to make good on their threat. Any retaliation against Russia for the destruction of the Aegis Ashore sites will result in immediate full scale war.
This is not as nuts as it sounds. The Aegis Ashore installations can be destroyed without much risk to civilian lives an infrastructure. Any NATO personnel operating these facilities could be killed or wounded, but the numbers would likely be small. Dozens to hundreds. I know this sounds shocking, but I cannot see any other path that would provide a sufficient shock to the EU/NATO/US with less actual bloodshed. To me this is the key…There is a threshold for casualties beyond which it is nigh on impossible for the US not to retaliate. Putin needs to show he is serious without inflicting large numbers of casualties on the US/NATO. The Aegis Ashore sites are perfect for this demonstration. Besides, in any war scenario, these sites must be destroyed at the outset anyway.
This is exactly my thinking as well. Russia has indicated that these weapon systems are an existential threat, especially when they will be fitted with the hypersonic weapons the US will eventually develop, which Putin has said will be soon. So he must act before that happens.
None of the other options talked about here will accomplish the mission of removing that threat, so I really don’t see the usefulness of addressing Syria, putting weapons in Cuba/Venezuela, cutting off gas/oil, etc. Maybe later, but he has to address the main threat now.
First would come the disabling of air defenses, then strikes in Romania, say, with a promise to complete the job if the rest of them are not immediately dismantled. Finally, a few subs appear off the east coast of the US with the announcement that any full scale retaliation with be mean its complete destruction.
What can the US do then without committing suicide?
Guy from US
You should know that Washington has always used military strikes against it (many being false flags) as a great motivating force to unify the country behind its real preference for total war that it dare not precipitate itself because that would ruin its phony reputation for being the good guys who never throw the first punch.
European colonials, citizens of the newly minted United States of America, not satisfied with the vast new territories recently purchased from France, moved across the Sabine River into Texas with Santana’s blessing, but just had to start acting like they owned the place and got Davy Crockett and some other period celebrities killed, for which “our side” owed those Beaners an ass-kicking they would never forget. Perhaps the first chant of USA, USA, USA goes up. Same basic grand theft landmass to steal the rest of the North American Southwest from our nearest neighbors in Polk’s War, unjustly known as the “Mexican War” (as if the Mexies started it). It was really just another “American War” in a lengthy list of our similar “diplomatic successes.”
Sorry if I leave out all of the Indian Wars to ethnically cleanse the Eastern seaboard, I’m not ken to all the phony pretexts and trigger incidents to justify them and unify the voting public behind them. Maybe you can find a Cherokee in North Carolina to apprise you. Oh, wait, most of the surviving descendants moved to Oklahoma–must have been for the scenery. But “Old Hickory” was a popular warlord, at least according to Walt Disney. And, he did win the presidency.
Sainted “Honest Abe” allowed the South to attack Fort Sumpter so he could mobilise the Yankee armies and draft every able-bodied new immigrant from European shores as soon as they got off the boat. The US Army probably allowed Custer to get massacred so they could carry out raw genocide against the Plains Indians. McKinley understudies probably arranged for the Maine to explode and sink in Havana Harbor so we could seize the remnants of Spain’s overseas empire. Somebody likely looked the other way when the Lusitania was sunk and we could put a whooping on the Kaiser’s forces after years of draining trench warfare while America stayed fat and happy trading with any side that would pay.
American oligarchs supported Hitler in building his war machine until our navy was allegedly blind-sided in Honolulu by a Japan whom we had wracked with energy sanctions for a decade or more. Then we self-righteously i) allowed Russia to destroy Germany while we ii) rendered Japan to green glass with the nukes we had contrived to develop long before the war began and would now use to threaten our erstwhile Eastern allies in Russia. Soon thereafter it was Boo-Hoo, the communists in N.Korea attacked their Southern brothers and it was up to us to obliterate that piece of real estate. Same deal in Vietnam: our proxies in the South seemed unable to defeat the Ho Che Min freedom fighters in the North so we contrived the Gulf of Tonkin incident. The impudence of those communists to attack an American vessel! They will (and did) pay with several millions dead before kicking our worthless asses out of their country.
Always it’s America posing as the innocent victim of someone else’s treachery. 9-11 was a recent masterpiece of persons “unknown”–though blamed on a bunch of Arab stooges who managed to elude us for over a decade purportedly hiding out in the Hindu Kush, until a “dead” bin Laden was needed as a presidential campaign talking point. History will eventually uncover the real masterminds, and they may not be foreigners. Odds are on the mad assholes routinely orchestrating this shit from Langley and Arlington. Get a clue: they also provided the pretexts and the talent in the Maidan putsch leading up to the present crisis that may be prelude to the world war that our Neocon deceivers want us to fight with Russia. Good luck rebuilding the radioactive ruins of your vaporised suburban split-level. Maybe you can get an adjustable interest loan from the IMF.
So. Gimme a “U.” Gimme an “S.” Gimme an “A.” What’s it spell? Frankly, “Murder Incorporated.”
No. Absolutely not.
Attacking an American Military Base inside the territory of a NATO ally will invariably invoke Article 5.
Attacking an American Military Base inside Ukraine will not.
Attacking an American Military Base inside Syria will not.
Attacking an American Military Base inside Iraq will not.
The USA could still appeal to its allies for help, of course, nothing stops it from doing so.
Just as nothing stops its European allies from answering that call, NATO charter be damned.
But the point is this: there would also be nothing stopping those European allies from saying “Nope, this is your fight, leave me out of it”
But an attack on Aegis Ashore inside Poland? No, no wriggle room there for the unwilling.
The US is seeking a Russian attack on Ukraine, so such an attack cannot possibly achieve the required result. Striking the Aegis Ashore sites will invoke Article Five. That is the entire point. Russia must demonstrate that NATO is a paper tiger.
How exactly can Russia convince Europe that it is serious about her own red lines while she studiously avoids Nato’s? The entire point is that NATO red lines in Eastern Europe are unacceptable to Russia.
What is needed is an overt strike that smashes any NATO red line in Eastern Europe without crossing any legitimate NATO red lines in the west.
When I first learned about WWI, what impressed me was how eager ordinary people were to go to war, like it was some great party or feast. There was almost a febrile intoxication to the attraction of war.
Reality changed with the first bullet fired, when millions were killed and maimed, and the old world died forever.
The many war enthusiasts on this blog remind me of that. A hot war is not inevitable. We should stop wishing for one.
Moses,
That is a very wise post. Past wars have been horrible. The next one could eclipse anything we have ever seen. We should not wish it to happen.
That is Putin’s dilemma. The West will never stop pushing.
Not ever.
The West will not be happy until they have their own hypersonic missile and they have those missiles located within minutes of Moscow.
That is why Putin must act. He simply cannot do nothing. And he must act now while he still has the military advantage.
But, you are right. He must act in a way that does not trigger Armageddon.
He will do something. And I am sure he is smart enough to do something measured to achieve his goals but not to cause an all out war.
@Moses, true indeed.
The latest example being the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenian and Azeri. Should never have happened.
But outside forces (I wonder who?) yet again instigate this (I wonder why?). With a proud patriotic battle cry the young Armenian and Azeri men bound, full of excitement, into battle. All well and good until young men start dying by the hundreds, then thousands. The the sick reality sinks in. War is hell.
@Moses and @A.S.K
Words of wisdom, both of you spoke.
Wars are horrible events. Perhaps those young people who grew up playing Playstation, Nintendo, Xbox or whatever video-game they may have may think war is just a game. It is not. It is where the worst within men flourishes, where hope dies, and despair takes hold of the hearts. Besides, military attacks can rapidly escalate and escape control, turning much nastier than initially thought.
I sincerely don’t see Mr. Putin as an unreasonable man. I trust he knows the truth about war. Furthermore, I may be naive, but I don’t see a rushing need for Russia to directly act in an offensive way militarily in the near term. I think there are plenty of things Russia can do to hurt the West without having to resort to some kind of military action (although it may react militarily, if attacked). As others have said, the US and Europe is in a dire financial situation. It may not need much to speed this decline to try to bring sense to the West.
But as the article said, let us wait instead of trying to guess what the actions are. The only thing for sure is that they are coming.
Russia must again be warned: Washington is getting prepared for anything that could be thrown against it. At this very moment, a concrete wall – concrete, mind you – is being built around the White House to protect The Resident and crew against enemies of (cue music) Freedom, Democracy and Liberty. The exterior of this wall will be painted in Rainbow Colors. Among other virtues, this color scheme is expected to compfuse inbound airborne optical systems that operate on enemy cis-artificial intelligence (cisAI), thus availing the intolerant, non-inclusive and inequitable weapon with no other option than to splash down safely in the Potomac. There. Bring it on.
On the serious side, let us pray for a peaceful resolution.
This is when a silverback gorilla is no longer able to dominate the competition. A very frustrating experience after decades of unchecked power. So I guess we will see some posturing but not a larger fight (The US and its boot lickers are no longer capable to wage large scale war).
When Lavrov has his very important press conference tomorrow, I’m hoping he will sever all diplomatic relations with USA.
Sadly, I don’t think the West will ever take Russia’s warning seriously unless Russia attacks NATO forces directly.
The Pentagon will gladly talk about the Russian threat because it’s good for their budget but they don’t really believe that Russia will ever actually dare to attack them. Therefore they feel no need to take Russia’s red lines with any seriousness.
As someone who grew up in the latter part of the cold war, it saddens me to think that I grew up only to see the threat of nuclear war become even more of a reality.
Nuclear war is off the table unless it gets to the last stand etc. The action front is/will be biological and economic.
Expect serious outbreaks of pig & bird flu (oh, dear, China suddenly needs American pork again). Boeing can’t sell safe planes — the whole flying tourist industry stops. Fed keeps pumping, and the markets keep rising, and gold keeps falling. As Doug MacGregor said in a recent interview — DC is occupied territory. Of course, none of this is a co-ordinated conspiricy, it just happens, …. from time to time.
Yes, of course Russia was right in engaging the US/NATO diplomatically even though no sane person east of Dniepr would have expected anything coming out of the talks. Of course NATO allies could not accept the offer made to them without a loss of face, that is, without in effect agreeing their military alliance encroached on traditionally Russian lands with aggressive intents, repenting and forswearing to move back. Yes, Russia had a moral obligation to do it. But I wouldn’t do overdo the ethics bit here. This was a power move. Having engaged the allies and getting rebuffed, Russia has gained a freer hand to re-organize its neighborhood. It comes with a heavy price tag, because the US and the Brits will go berserk with sanctions (Canada’s FM Melanie Jolie is advocating new sanctions ahead of any action by Russia). So there will be pain, yes, bigger than now, but my sense is that the Russians have braced for it. I don’t think Russia will be deterred from making Ukraine friendly again.
Something occurred to me yesterday, and I posted it on Gilbert Doctorow’s blog page. Perhaps the best way for Vladimir Vladimirovich to proceed would be to ask prez Zelenskyi for TV time to address the Ukrainian people directly to explain the Russian position vis-a-vis Ukraine. It should be “govor s dushoy” or “hovor do dushi” recounting the closeness and brotherhood of the two nations, their common history, Christian traditions, their glorious victory over a common enemy in the last world war. At the same time, it should be a frank talk about what Russia can and cannot tolerate in its immediate security zone, and about the unacceptable danger that represents the accession of Ukraine to NATO membership, and even the current lending of its territory, waters and air-space to weapons and military installations targetting Russia. Russia is a threat to no-one, and it will not allow to be cast into the role of an aggressor, by people who themselves have aggressive aims towards Russia. Make no mistake, continuation of the present impasse cannot be allowed and brings about a fratricidal war that neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian people desire.
To my mind, such a speech would go a long way to prepare the ground for either fast dialling down if the insane scheming that prevails in Kiev as of now, or assure that of the Ukrainian army loses some of the appetite for a firefight, that is assuming liberally that it exists in the first place. To give Ukraine a chance to extricate itself from the conflict before it gets hot It would be right thing to do. (So what happens if Zelenskyi refuses to broadcast this? It’s a lose-lose proposition either way. The speech could not be suppressed. It will be on Russian TV. It will get around one way or another with even greater effect if it is forbidden.)
How sad that the West is now unable to even pretend to be serious in negotiations, unlike the very skilled James Baker. Alexander Lukashevich in his press conference would not be pinned down on the timeline for Russia’s response, but he said it won’t be months or years. I think this is in a way mocking George Bush before the Iraq war with his language regarding a timeline: “weeks and not months” or whatever.
I don’t think missile deployments and diplomatic moves or whatever will get the West’s attention. I expect some sort of military response by Russia in under 2 months.
@ Bobm on January 13, 2022
“I’m not a military expert…but I don’t think that is necessary to read the writing on this wall. My guess? The Russians will strike, not at Ukraine, but at the Aegis Ashore installations in Romania and Poland. The Russians will obliterate these two sites with conventional missile strikes (probably Iskanders)…”
I should follow Saker’s wise recommendation to “rather wait for those unilateral actions to become public,” but I find your line of thought very similar to mine. Russians have been repeating ad nauseam they are not planning to attack 404, unless the Ukronazis launch an attack against LDNR. The border deployment is a necessary defense wall to prevent any retaliatory attacks after Russia strikes somewhere in the neighborhood. NATO would use Ukraine as a launchpad, which will give Russia an opportunity to extirpate that nauseating neo-Nazi cancer, therefore, no reason to attack where US/NATO is expecting, and where Russia will be at a political disadvantage.
An attack on the Aegis Ashore systems is more in line with Russia’s objectives to roll back NATO from its borders.
They are hoping to finish Aegis Ashore deployment in Poland by the end of 2022.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2849023/aegis-ashore-in-poland-on-target-for-2022/
Aegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022
“…We are behind, given the original schedule, no question about that. The good news is we’re getting the quality we want for a facility that’s going to be there 50 to 75 years, and we now have the right management in place in order to move ahead and complete this…”
————————————————
Time to interrupt their “50 to 75 years” plan.
No other line of attack, and several have been mentioned, including Syria and of course, Ukraine, falls into place with the demands Russia presented the US/NATO. Better now the system is already in place but not operative, than later when it can defend itself. Allegedly.
Lone Wolf
No. I believe the Russians need to, and will, target the USAmerican security interests directly. At the end of the day, the Empire doesn’t care what Russia does to Ukraine, Poland, Romania or the Baltics, etc. In fact, the more turmoil in the EU the happier the US is. What it fears from Russia is that it says “ok, no more proxy wars, now it’s between just you and me”.
There were many other comments that I could have responded to about this but I responded to yours because you make a lot of sense. So, respect. Best wishes.
Do the pawns always have to be the ones sacrificed?
What about putting those who are cheering/profiteering from war on the front line.
I wonder if rather than full scale war, a simultaneous coordinated take out of some well known western war criminals, war promoting presstitutes, drum beating politicians and a few high stakes shareholders in weapons manufacturing companies, would not be more effective and just.
No real loss of innocent life, instant karma and quite a few stained seats among those who are just fine with others dying for their benefit.
Videos/reports uploaded at the same time giving all the dirt on the grubbiness of their characters/crimes and explaining how the removal of a few bosses is preferable to the deaths of millions.
Excellent post dear Saker! I one am hopeful there is an economic crash in the west and America is broken up into many different countries.
I certainly am worried about the messianic delusions of the neocons and a nuclear war that will likely be the result. I, for one, am willing to accept economic suffering as an American citizen than to see hundreds of millions worldwide suffer from world war.
I will continue to pray for peace and God’s mercy on us!
@ Observer From Mordor on January 13, 2022
“Russia must again be warned: Washington is getting prepared for anything that could be thrown against it. At this very moment, a concrete wall – concrete, mind you – is being built around the White House to protect The Resident and crew against enemies of (cue music) Freedom, Democracy and Liberty. The exterior of this wall will be painted in Rainbow Colors. Among other virtues, this color scheme is expected to compfuse inbound airborne optical systems that operate on enemy cis-artificial intelligence (cisAI), thus availing the intolerant, non-inclusive and inequitable weapon with no other option than to splash down safely in the Potomac. There. Bring it on…”
Thanks for the laugh.
Zircons and Sarmats have been defeated, not a chance against the Rainbow.
A serious disappointment for the Russians.
Lone Wolf
The war party may have won but is the US military willing/able to take on Russia/China?
What next? This will be a surprise. VVP does surprises very well. One thing we can be reasonably sure of is that whatever he does it will be within legal limits.
There may still be a chance that the US will see sense. Perhaps if/when the US/NATO military does their sums and concludes that they cannot win a war with Russia/China.
Reports are around that Sweden and Finland may ask to join NATO and will be accepted immediately.
So, in some ways it looks like the West is or has been preparing for war.
The next few weeks will tell.
It would appear that Russia has already begun to act… No idea whether this is true or not.
Russia began to massively transfer tanks, MLRS, air defense and military to the border with NATO
https://avia–pro-net.translate.goog/news/rossiya-nachala-massovo-perebrasyvat-tanki-rszo-pvo-i-voennyh-na-granicu-s-nato?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
Russian warships unexpectedly moved towards the Baltic Sea
https://avia–pro-net.translate.goog/news/rossiyskie-voennye-korabli-neozhidanno-vydvinulis-v-storonu-baltiyskogo-morya?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
While NATO continues provocations…
NATO combat aircraft and strike control board spotted near Crimea
https://avia–pro-net.translate.goog/news/vblizi-kryma-zamechena-boevaya-aviaciya-nato-i-bort-upravleniya-udarami?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
As an aside regard Kazakhstan, this seems interesting:
The Russian military was not allowed to guard the mysterious biological laboratory in Kazakhstan
https://avia–pro-net.translate.goog/news/rossiyskih-voennyh-ne-pustili-na-ohranu-zagadochnoy-biolaboratorii-v-kazahstane?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
Equipment, American scientists and military disappeared from the American biological laboratory in Kazakhstan
https://avia–pro-net.translate.goog/news/iz-amerikanskoy-biolaboratorii-v-kazahstane-propalo-oborudovanie-amerikanskie-uchyonye-i?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
My guess is the movements of Russian troops and ships were scheduled before the talks to be initiated as soon as it appeared the talks would fail. That would be prudent. Russia has to show NATO that it is fully prepared to do what it said it would do: take steps to insure Russia’s security. I don’t think these movements are in any way “pre-strike” staging.
“Equipment, American scientists and military disappeared from the American biological laboratory in Kazakhstan”
I heard that CSTO troops are going home too. Maybe at the same plane?
As expected the recent meetings between Russia and the U.S. and between Russia and NATO produced nothing of substance. So Russia is now free to act.
We are now all wondering two things – what will she do, and when will she do it?
I have neither knowledge nor expertise to predict what she will do, although I expect her to do something.
I also have neither knowledge nor expertise to predict when she will act, but I do have three recent examples to consider: 1) Russia went public on the conditions in Syria, and the next thing the world knew the train-line of trucks carrying oil north into Turkey was obliterated. 2) After the Maiden coup in Ukraine, Crimea voted to rejoin Russia. The world speculated on how long it would take Putin to act on that request. It happened if not the next day, then within a day or two later. 3) Most recently there was an attempted “color revolution” in Kazakhstan. Within a matter of two or three days Russian led CSTO forces landed in Kazakhstan and snuffed that attempted coup out.
So, while I wait with baited breath, I don’t think I will be waiting for long.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
May God grant victory to Orthodox Christians over all their enemies.
Funny thing about god, it can be what ever one wants it to be. So, let it be.
I’ve just finished listening to Alexander Lukashevich’s press conference in Vienna. Lukashevich voiced his disappointment at the outcome of the OSCE meeting, and rightly so. I think Russia deliberately chose OSCE over the EU in the talks because it wanted to give the Europeans, who were attending the meeting as — in Lukashevich’s words, — ‘sovereign states’ (cf a bloc), an opportunity to speak out about matters that concern their vital interests. Unfortunately the Euro cuckolds who were in attendance sold out — yet again — to the Empire; not entirely unexpected, it has to be said, but very clarifying as far as RF is concerned. Talk about a missed opportunity on the part of the Europeans! RF will now act to ensure its security as opposed to European security.
The US is expected to submit its written response to RF proposals made in Geneva today (it’s already mid Friday where I live), with Nato following suit. We cannot be certain what those responses will be at the moment but for Europe’s sake I remain hopeful of something, anything, positive.
Speculation: if there is no movement on RF strategic security, RF will threaten the US homeland — perhaps originating from the RF Far East or the Arctic. It goes without saying that any stupid provocations (ala HMS Defender) near RF territorial waters/airspace will result in a sinking or a downing. The Transcaucasus and Central Asia will be off-limits to fUKUS/Nato.
Good first steps would be:
1.Drop the US Dollar from all trade between Russia and foreign nations (except the US itself). And ban the use of the US Dollar inside Russia.
2. Sell Iran the weapons systems needed for defense against any US attack.
3. Send envoys to Sweden and Finland to see if they are really planning on joining NATO. And if so let them understand they will then become targets for elimination.
4.Withdraw yourself from Swift and attach to the Chinese pay system.
5.Block NATO country airlines from the use of Siberian overflight.
6.Start phasing out all imports from NATO states.
7.Announce a “Putin Doctrine” that says an attack or Color Revolution directed at a Russian ally or friendly state with be considered an attack on Russia and responded to by a military response.
8.Let loose the SVR to support dissent elements in NATO states.They are already accused of doing that so,”if your going to do the time anyway, do the crime”.
Step 8 should’ve been taken years ago.
Thank you Saker.
I absolutely agree with you, remove all diplomats from western and unfriendly states, and that asap. Indeed “what is the point ?”. The west has no honor, remove them from harms way, one less problem to worry about. Just as importantly, the message that an unannounced simultaneous withdrawal will send will be chilling, and will focus minds, and importantly, citizens minds. The media cannot suppress a move like that.
Then….. Russia can make the moves of which you talk.
@ Peter on January 13, 2022 · at 1:53 pm EST/EDT
‘Let Russia start with Nationalizing the Central Bank .
All this talk of Russian invincibility makes no sense if the central bank and media are practically a 5th column’.
I agree. No nation can defend itself easily from inside treachery. Clear the Atlanticists from the banking system and make the Russian monetary system as sovereign as possible. Stop the selling of Russian gold bullion to the international markets.
I also think military action should not be the first choice. Russian and China could easily arrange for the price of gold to double in the markets, and to the average person this means nothing, but it means a lot to the debt markets.
It is easy to inflame national hatred with pictures of dead soldiers, not so easy with a change in bank statements!
Sometimes I wonder if it is all kabuki theatre and the ‘one bank’ rules them all. Russia seems to be both brilliant and also self-defeating in equal measure. Examples, Serbia, Libya, Ukraine. The loss of Ukraine from the Russian sphere was an unforgivable calamity!
Russia will not be at war unless the Empire starts it. Not only do all Russians not want a war, but more importantly, Russia has an abundance of non-military actions which would cause lots of pain to the Empire. It’s a testament to the stupidity and suicidal character of the elites in Washington, London and Tel Aviv, that they utterly fail to appreciate how many non-violent ways Russia, China and Iran have to fight back.
But the Empire may choose to impose war, knowing it will be defeated in Ukraine, but expecting the rapt of Europe will make the high price “worth it”.
Could someone explain these zones to me please?
The Saker wrote an article about the zones – which is published on the site. Mod.
Here’s the article:
/zone-b-exists-thus-there-is-hope-i-promise-you/
Thanks that was an astounding take that reflects the many signals I have been tracking for 5 years.
Lol. I started off trying to predict when severe censorship would come into effect in zone A. What a laugh eh? It didn’t take long and caught me by surprise. It took 2 years instead of 5.
And Orwell wept…..
While Nietzsche just shrugged….
We can expect an escalation with Europe when sanctioning the US fails. There are too many reluctant partners in NATO that you would want to split off.
So on the basis of the expected NATO failure they can rinse and repeat with Europe. After that sanctions involve commodities and that means a change in long standing energy policy with respect to hostile countries.
You enforce payment on delivery and shut off the flow briefly where terms are not being met. You have talks and turn it back on. And repeat as necessary until they manage to compensate with alternative sources.. That would take years.
Oil reserves only increase in value with time. There will be many BRI clients to supply. Russia will use small nuclear power I expect thus freeing remaining reserves.
My concern is pollution btw. Green energy will self correct as reality hits. Solutions are coming in either case. Oil will always be extremely valuable regardless. That’s my take on energy and Russia has it.
An all out economic war, which has always been the norm for empire, is upon us. The ever inflating economic bubble driven by the US and Europe won’t survive the strain and will finally pop.
This will badly effect the G20 and thus China and Russia in particular. When faced with a last man standing scenario and a deep depression the already angered populace will tip over the edge leading to hard core full blown fascism in the G7. Expect a lot of dead citizens in the bargain.
Given we are dealing with a few countries more akin to death cults and with what a call fascist FP how does this end.
Because I advocate putting a stop to the military artificial intelligence singularity we face I eventually had to recommend starting a nuclear war. A likely outcome in that AGI eventuality I might add.
I do have a family. Sadly none of us, or you all even, matter in these existential concerns. Let the bombs fly. That’s my vote. I am les sorry than I should be.
Well put it.
Let’s nuke fly to the City of London and DC.
So it is, so it mote be.
Yes. So mote it be. As a man who couldn’t weep I was astonished I could weep for humanity and actually FEEL something.
Is that what it takes to break through? To wake people up?
These elites are a pedestrian, mundane, stupid sort of evil. You will find that psychopaths and sociopaths have strong emotions.
For themselves and what “gets their juices flowing.” They live for this stuff. They live for the rush.
” Russia will begin a policy of unilateral actions aimed at advancing vital Russian national interests. ” >
Being a cautious optimist, hope never dies so far as I’m concerned. Hence, i join all other like-minded people across the world who would like to see Russian civilization regroups itself and become a true friend to all countries who would like to free themselves from Zionist world order …..
We don’t know what programmes the Russians would identify as their “national interest”. On my part, I’m looking forward to the day when Belarus, Novorossian region of Ukraine, and Russia create an Eurasian Union of States, and start the journey to create a society where there won’t be any exploitation or injustice, a society where morality and spirituality will be accorded due importance, and a society where human and nature will coexist….
> “Was Russia right to engage in these negotiations?”
Russia .. and the whole world .. knows the Supremacist, Illusion based, Reality-is-Mind-Borne psychology of the US Empire. It would have been shocking if the US responded in any other way than the usual Delusions, Perception Marketing and Contempt.
I suspect the actual function of these “negotiations” is to *impint* a clear Assertion of Russia’s platform for future action.
This imprint is the axis about which the world will turn.
There are a lot of things going through my mind. Let’s keep it short.
My guess is that the RF knew on beforehand that it would end like this. The public announcement of their wish list wasn’t not just for the USA, it is mainly for the public.
The USA is ‘not agreement capable’. In the modern society they share this with little children, drug addicts, completely spoiled brats and psychopaths. Or any combination of these. Such people need other treatments to get things done.
My biggest fear, is that DC does not recognize that they have really missed their last chance, their last train. What are they thinking? And that delirious idea of ‘sanctioning’ Putin personally, as if they are dealing with some reincarnation of Idi Amin in stead of the president of a nation with a veto-powered seat in the UNSC. Really dudes, what are they smoking in DC?
Just another few questions.
-I think the time is over for sarcastic remarks that the RF hopefully made an agreement with the Taliban for guarding their borders. How long is it ago that the US Army had to *flee* Afghanistan in pure dishonour and disarray, and now they think they can bully the RF from a presumed position of strength, supremacy and exceptionalism, while the south border of the USA themselves seems to be ‘guarded’ by a few men with rifles on horseback? Do they even see this themselves?
-Can somebody explain to me if I’m wrong, that the military impact of known static placed missiles capable of flying in a few minutes towards their target, is not a clear advantage with respect to missiles flying in a few minutes to their target from an unknown moving sub?
So this whole show is more the unpolite message of ‘I really, really make all this effort because I definitely yearn to destroy you when your attention slips away’? In this perspective, does it then make sense to do it in reverse, or is rational relevance not needed anymore at this stage?
-Discussions and propositions towards what can be done to get the USA to their senses are hard. It all boils down to searching a border where ‘the public’ will see that the road is insane. Unfortunately ‘the public’ doesn’t take the decisions, and seem to be indifferent that e.g. NATO blokes try to rewrite history that the Soviet Army didn’t play a role in defeating Nazi-Germany. What counts for them is what sports game is on tonight.
And I’m afraid when is asked to people who really are pulling the strings, whether they are willing to sacrifice e.g. 100 million of their own civilians as a price to destroy the RF, they will say yes. Behind closed doors, but still a yes.
-Do we have enough trust in that the US military will talk politicians to their senses? Are they really military men, or politicians with another suit? And, I can remember that in the sixties and seventies of last century it was the military with ridiculous ideas, and the politicians trying to stop them (I’m pretty convinced that at least one bullet fired at JFK came from them). I get the idea that now it is the reverse, and that is definitely not the situation that we should want.
-This whole situation is boiling down to threatening and bullying with ‘some hope’ to stay under the nuclear level. And I’m not impressed by the insights of some players.
Nobody with a clear mind wants war, but I’m not convinced of clear minds.
-I want to make something clear here, as a citizen and a father. I’m afraid of what the future will bring, for what, and I’m even more afraid that in constantly manoeuvring on knife edge just a bloody mistake of a sleeping guard, a misread measurement, will bring forth something unimaginable. And don’t you bloody bother to try to convince me that their are such ‘smart systems’ to counter that. I’m from the industry, I know ‘smart systems’. And their risk analyses, too.
Moreover, when my children would ask me later how this could happen, and what we could have done to avoid it, I’m not sure that I can answer them. And that scares me, and should scare everybody.
May God guard over us all.
Cheers, Rob
Surely the whole idea behind the US/NATO war party’s provocations is the desire to land Russia with ultimate ‘rogue nation’ status for the benefit of the USMIC. Assume Russia is provoked into a short but destructive military action in Ukraine as a result of that country procuring NATO membership. NATO itself is now given manna from heaven in the form of an unlimited check for materiel and personnel. The propaganda machine goes into superheat mode and Russia is now damned for the long awaited and now finally arrived ‘imperial expansion’ that Putin has been hilariously accused of by the Western media. Russia will become the New Soviet Union that the USMIC has always wanted. The megabux will flow once again into the bank accounts of the military contractors and the Pentagon.
This is why the Russians are trying to get it all on paper first. But sadly, the gullibility of Western citizens in the face of determined and overwhelming propaganda is unlimited.
Correct, (the inaccurately named) Rambling Idiot, but hasn’t that strategy worked for the USMIC before? Compare WW3 Russia to WW2 Japan: Increasing American military power was surrounding Japan since at least the Spanish-American War (the Philippines) and Boxer Rebellion (China). When Japan acted unilaterally and attacked Pearl Harbor, American leaders pretended the decades of provocations never happened, blamed Japan for everything, and used public anger to grow support for the USMIC.
But that was 80 years ago and things are different now. “The gullibility of Western citizens” is a greater liability than it has ever been. How could people so dumb, desperate, or deranged to believe the “Russia will become the New Soviet Union” story simultaneously be intelligent, measured, and rational enough to win in peer-adversary, third-, fourth-, or fifth-generation warfare? There might be ways around that, such as a heavily AI-controlled system where workers and soldiers only have to be smart enough to do whatever Alexa and Cortana tell them to do, but sooner or later, the contradiction will collapse.
Запад се издаје за Месију, међутим то не одражава праву природу Англо алијансе. Оно што њих стварно покреће је болесна, незајажљива потреба да поседују све. У једној речи, на српском: плен, на руском: дань, на енглеском: loot.
Yandex translation. Mod:
the apad is issued for the Messiah, however this does not reflect the true nature of the Anglo Alliance. What really drives them is the sick, insatiable need to own everything. In one word, in Serbian: prey, in Russian: danü, in English:loot
Guess the NATO preparing already. Here in Germany many report along the Traintracks to the east that massiv amount of armoured vehicels are send somewhere. definitly more than usual.
tbh: this massiv movement was already there since 2020. i can onyl fathom what build up is already done. But given that the 1 Russian Tank is also already on the Western Border ready to go, i guess both sides are ready for kinetic action. My guess is too, Feb 20, if not earlier.