I am publishing a report form one of my contacts who actually has, shall we say, “inside access” to the ongoing events in Tehran. I have asked him to explain to me what the real context of these events actually is, and I am deeply grateful for his reply. He also told me that he would be available to answer any questions his analysis might raise. So please, if you have any questions or comments, do post your questions in the comments section below.
The Saker
——-
The situation in Iran
by “Ya_Baqiyatullah”
As the situation regarding the Presidential elections escalate in Iran, there is a little glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel in the form of Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai. The last few days has seen mass protests, riots on the streets of Tehran and other major cities, victory rally by the supporters of Ahmedinijad and rumours along with accusations in the Media sources across the World. The situation on the ground has never been correctly presented to the world and bias has ruled in reporting and manipulating to ensure a certain message is delievered regarding Iran.
Anyone who has followed these elections closely would accept the result without questioning or believing in the conspiracies of fraud and stolen elections, simply because of the conduct of Ahmedinijad in his campaign compared to that of Mousavi. World Media laid the claims of mishandling the economy at Ahmedinijad and in the process blinded themselves to the other policies of the President to the people of the nation. Ahmedinijad has improved the standard of living for the lower and working class people by the redistribution through the wealth programme. An example of such would be the case of the Association of Women Weavers who boast a figure of 2.7 million women working for them. As they were unable to afford insurance for such a sizeable association Ahmedinijad stepped in to provide the insurance from the Government in order to ensure that the Association continues to exist. In return, he has secured majority of votes from those 2.7 million women.
Iran has a rural population which amounts to 65% or so of the total population, most of these people love Ahmedinijad simply because of what he has bought for the rural areas in his first term in the office. During his campaign he focused on the rural people making them the heart of his campaign, not only that during his campaign he visited all provinces where as Mousavi limited himself to the big cities and banked on being the President by winning these cities. The flaw is evident; one campaigning on two fronts effectively the rural population as well as the big cities while Mousavi only focusing on the big cities. This was the deciding factor in the elections and something that is reflected in the provincial results released by the Interior ministry last night.
On another note, the differences between the candidates themselves is something which would have caught the eye of the public. Ahmedinijad is a person who lives simply, conducts himself without extravagance and is honest in his profession in every manner. Where as Mousavi is someone who is from the upper circles of the society and is seen as a part of the corrupt political elite. This may well have played a deciding role in the elections given that the public has seen Ahmedinijad take on the corruption issue in his first term in the office and the results have been showing after arrests of several officials in the Government. Once the election results became evident, this point became the central focus on the corrupt elite. Ahmedinijad has vowed to ensure that justice prevails in this corruption scandal and this has upset alot of people in high positions especially the likes of Rafsanjani and Karroubi.
If one recalls back to the televised debates and especially the one between Mousavi and Ahmedinijad, they would notice the aftermath raised the eyebrows of certain key influencial figures after the outburst of Ahmedinijad regarding Rafsanjani and others. The aftermath involved Rafsanjani writing to the Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai and asking him to deal with Ahmedinijad’s outburst in the televised debates or expect street riots . Further to that, after the casting of the vote by Rafsanjani’s wife on the day of elections made a claim that if there is no cheating then Mousavi will become the President and if there is cheating then expect mass protests. This is a result of a long battle between Ahmedinijad and Rafsanjani, while the former has indirectly attacked Rafsanjani for corruption it was first time that he has openly said this as noted in the televised debate. The corruption surrounding Rafsanjani is well known amongst the Iranian public; as recent as last year a member of the ministry of Intelligence went public exposing Rafsanjani and stating all the cases of corruption against him. The response from Rafsanjani was imprisonment for this personnel on the charge of failing to pay a bill. Not only that, Dr. Hassan Abbasi who is a well known conservative strategic analyst and an advisor to the Wilayatul Faqee gave a very powerful speech a few years ago exposing Rafsanjani and his corruption empire by mentioning names. The influence of Rafsanjani saw him fired from his position and arrested.
Rafsanjani was the man who funded the campaign of Mousavi and many of the policies that Mousavi had wished to implement show a direct involvement of Rafsanjani in it. For instance, Mousavi wanted to remove the power of the Baseej and Revolutionary Guards from the Wilayatul Faqee and giving it to the Governors. This implies a clear strategy to alienate the Wilayatul Faqee from any power and provide a platform for Rafsanjani to use his influence in the Baseej and make them loyal to him. Rafsanjani has also called for a reform of the system of Governance going from the concept of one Supreme Leader to where a Council is created to govern. Knowing very well that people would not vote for him to be the next Wilayatul Faqee, he is taking this oppurtunity to ensure his position is solidified.
The responsibility of the riots and the aftermath of the elections lies on the shoulder of Rafsanjani. He has instigated this simply to achieve one of the two outcomes from the Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai and that is either a recount is ordered and Mousavi is declared the winner or that Ahmedinijad is ordered to stop the corruption investigation. The choas also gives upper hand to Rafsanjani to ensure some of the key aides of Ahmedinijad can be arrested on bogus charge or removed through a smear campaign. The hang noose is tightening on the necks of Rafsanjani and co and the only way out is through destablizing the country to ensure that the Wilayatul Faqee steps in and gives in to their demands.
Karroubi, Mousavi, Khatami and Rafsanjani all have enjoyed their freedom for so long and now the tide has turned against them. Karroubi declaring that he does not recognise Ahmedinijad as the winner of the elections was always going to be the case especially after he was exposed on the televised debate to the public. Mousavi was seen as a proxy of Rafsanjani and it has been confirmed such is the case given the aftermath of the elections. Khatami has adopted a position of silence so far but his thoughts were well known especially after every poster, every image of Mousavi campaign had his face on it too. Rafsanjani controls all the strings and will use every trick in the book to save his neck. His daughter has already left the country before the charges of money laundering, extortian and large amounts of illegal campaign contributions could be levelled against her.
Yes, the Islamic Republic stands on a fringe given that it has now become a duel between the Supreme authority of the country who is Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai and Rafsanjani, who is a disciple of the great Ayatollah Khomeini and the former President with a lot of influence in the country. While people may question as to how Rafsanjani has become so powerful and why Ayatollah Khamenai did not act earlier? The answer is simple the time was not right before to remove him for the power he carries could completely destabilise the country. Today, there is destabilisation but on a small scale. Had the action to counter Rafsanjani and co had been done before it would have probably been a completely failure as all the important positions of the Government were occupied or under the influence of the corrupt elite. The riots are being carried out by those who wish to further the agenda of the corrupt elite while the majority of the people see otherwise and have therefore voted for a president whom they know will uproot the corrupt elite.
The Western Media beat the drums of election rigging and stolen but the reality on the ground is much different. Looking beyond the apparent confusion unveils a reality which the Western powers do not wish to accept as this would surely signal the end of any hope that they had of a reformist liberal Iran. The only tactic they could employ is to take cause confusion by attacking the conservative camp as it has been seen on many occasions since the day of elections and before. First, a report defaming Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi for supposedly issuing a fatwa of authorising rigging followed up by a false report that the Interior Ministry congratulated Mousavi on winning the elections before changing their minds and opting for Ahmedinijad. BBC went a step further today saying that the mass rally in Tehran by the Reformists were called off because Baseej were authorised to use live rounds on the protestors before making a U-turn and saying that the rally went ahead with shots fired. Both of these reports represent bias; the rally had to be authorised by the Interior Ministry and that authorisation was not given however Mousavi continued ahead with the planned rally. Baseej has not been deployed yet on the streets, they have been given orders to mobilise in case the situation gets out of hand. On another note, the Western Media sources have mentioned the Wilayatul Faqee, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai stating that the Guardian Council should probe into the claims of fraud in relation to the elections. This is not quite right, while Ayatollah Ali Khamenai has endorsed the results he has asked the Guardian Council to consider the complaints of Mousavi and Rezaei. Infact, Rezaei himself has accepted the results of the election but he has raised certain issues which have been passed to the Guardian Council. One has to ask, whether this manipulative reporting would still be the way of the Western Media had a reformist been in the position of power?
Three days from today, the Wilayatul Faqee Ayatollah Ali Khamenai will address the Iranian nation at the Friday Prayers in Tehran University. Many hope that his address will bring stability and peace to the country after the riots and also mark the end of the corrupt elite. The glimmer of hope is the Wilayatul Faqee and many in Iran over this week will be anxiously awaiting to see what he decrees for they know that his word will be final.
VS,
A very informative post and it sheds a lot of light on events taking place at a critical stage in Iran. I never trusted Rafsanjani and the bazaar merchants class he represents.
Who credible is your source?
This is a very intelligent and insightful report from the Pro-Ahmedinijad camp, but I’d point out that the Pro-Mousavi could easily produce an equally intelligent and insightful report which depicts the situation completely differently. In fact, several have on other sites. Both sides consider themselves in the right, fighting against corruption and oppression. Both claim to have numbers from both before and after the election which show their preferred candidate winning, and both object to being called pawns of a darker agenda.
Whatever your beliefs about the motives behind the protests, theys would have not gotten to this point if the Ahmedinijad government had not tried to stamp them out in such a heavy-handed manner. Western media barely covered the first 2 days of protests, and the days were more peaceful. However, cutting off communications with the outside world and then then unleashing paramilitary thugs on the crowds (there are enough pictures out now there to prove it has happened) united and rallied the protesters. Seemingly rushing to finalize the election results while refusing to consider the opposition’s requests for investigation simply made the leadership look guilty. Raiding the universities and wrecking havoc on the students living there makes them look oppressive. And now people are being killed, so the chance that it will get worse is increasing.
@Tony: How credible is your source?
I can only judge the reliability of my source on the basis of what this source has reported to me in the past and, in that context, I would rate it as very credible. My source does not hide in any way its dislike for the Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mousavi & Co. crowd, nor does my source make a secret for its respect for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I do not see that as a problem, not only because I share this bias myself, but also because my source has never displayed a “wrong or right my country!” kind of attitude. In our exchanges my source has always shown a critical approach and logical analysis of any issue.
In terms of access, my source has access to some religious circles in Qom and I would rate that as among the best possible forms of “access” possible.
As always, though, I think that a source should be rated on the basis of how its analyses and predictions survive the test of time. As Christ said, “judge a tree by its fruits”.
So far, everything I have heard from this source makes sense to me an jives with the other information I have. But we always need to make up our own minds on a case by case basis and over time.
HTH & YMMV.
Regards,
VS
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak02.html
@anonymous2: yes, I saw the article by Pepe Escobar and a lot of the info he gives in this article leave me puzzled. In particular this sentence:
One of the stalwarts of Qom power, the moderate Grand Ayatollah Sanei, who had issued a fatwa against vote rigging, calling it a “mortal sin”, has already declared the Ahmadinejad presidency “illegitimate”. His house and office are now under police siege. Iranians eagerly expect a public pronouncement from Grand Ayatollah Muntazeri, the country’s true top religious figure (not Khamenei) and a certified anti-ultra-right wing.
Frankly, I am baffled by this and I am not sure what to make of it.
Unlike Juan Cole, whom I consider grossly over-rated, I consider Pepe Escobar one of the very best commentators out there and this article leaves me scratching my head and wondering…
The fundamental thesis that the election was rigged makes no sense to me, none at all. There is nothing I can do about that unless I am presented with a logical and credible scenario giving not only the “how” but also the “why”.
As for the interpretation of the rest of the events, they all derive from this.
For example, why in the world would Khamenei want to rig an election he could have prevented *fully legally*?
Why bothyer with rigging and election for a post which is largely honorific?
Why did Mousavi decalre victory before the results were announced?
Why is everybody calling the Basiji “thugs” when the first violence was clearly the action of the pro-Mousavi demonstrators?
Why is everybody so enamoured of Mousavi even though the latter is clearly putting his personal ambitions (getting to an honorific post) over the well-being of his country (the LAST thing Iran needs today is this kind of confrontation)?
Why is everybody accepting the thesis that the election was rigged when there is no better “evidence” than the bullshit Juan Cole is serving us?
To me, the situation smacks much more of what happend in Venezuela when the rich bourgeois elites tried to overthrow Hugo Chavez who was clearly a threat to their interest and pockets.
I see rich Iranian elites clashing with the poorer Iranian masses who support Ahmadinejad.
But if this is about rich vs. poor, about classes, how in the world is it that all these self-described “leftists” utterly fail to see this?!
I am amazed by the fact that the so-called “Left” is fully buying into the CNN/BBC/CIA description of events.
Has the entire world gone mad?!?!?!
“I am amazed by the fact that the so-called “Left” is fully buying into the CNN/BBC/CIA description of events.”
CNN barely covered the protests for 2 days, even showing their favorably-considered 08 interview with Ahmedinijad in place of live coverage. Even today they’ve erred on the side of caution in their coverage. If that’s the best the CIA can do these days, they’re not even trying.
“Why is everybody calling the Basiji “thugs” when the first violence was clearly the action of the pro-Mousavi demonstrators?”
The riding around on motorbikes, clubbing with nightsticks and shooting handguns indiscriminately might have something to do with it.
Peace all,
The information posted regarding Ayatollah Saanei is false and fabricated. While it is true that the Ayatollah issued a decree ordering his followers to vote for Mousavi he has not called for the appointment of Ahmedinijad illegitmate. He infact wrote a letter to Mousavi today or yesterday given the time zone stating that he fully backs him and asked him to pursue his issues in a calm manner and that he is upset at what has happened in the past few days as it should have been a joyful occasion.
Tonight there is no siege in Qum around his house as I have just phoned Qum to confirm this. Saanei is well known for his liberal stances and his support of Mousavi is not a surprise.
As for Montazeri, may I add here before going further that no he is not the top religious authority would have to be Grand Ayatollah Khorasani. Montazeri’s views will not have much effect especially as he has been seen as a outcast from his falling out with Khomeini back in the early years of the Revolution. His effect on public will be minimal expect only his supporters to make a great deal of his statement. His creditionals have been severely doubted amongst the Iranian public after his falling out with Khomeini and his public attack on Khamenai after he became the WF after Khomeini. He is considered the top religious authority by some due to his experience in the field of Jurisprudence as well as his support for the Hawza [the theological schools] before his house arrest following the falling out with Khomeini.
Regards
altigerrrr
Missed a point; do remember that Montazeri was the successor to Khomeini before he was stripped of that position for his defence of his son in law who was guilty of conspiraing to murder several key revolutionary figures by collaborating with the MKO. So it is not a surprise when Montazeri attacks the Government now as it is nothing but sour grapes.
V.S., maybe some replies to your (3.11 pm) questions, like why the Grand Ayatollah did not prevent this one or that one legally, can be found here:
by Bradrakhumar who is, in my view, a sharp analyst.
Maybe -maybe!- it’d be more pragmatical and sweeter for the G.A. to see how “the great white sperm whale of immense, premeditated ferocity and stamina in Herman Melville’s epic novel Moby Dick, Rafsanjani is going down, deeply wounded by the harpoon, into the cold oblivion of the sea of Iranian politics”, as the author says. Not only the G.A. savoured the cold dish of revenge, but he also got a “shark” out of the political scene, who would pose far more danger if “unselected”, because this would cause him to act under resentment. Better to finish him off, politically speaking, of course.
However, I’m trying to understand the whole thing, by surfing through the mountains of crappy western anti-Iran propaganda. I enjoyed your source’s account.
But I wouldn’t discard the intervention of the USA’s black hand. She loves the “color revolutions” a lot, and is mad at having Iran -and its gas and oil- under her grips. The rich iranian youth in the streets seemed to me a copy-cat of the “Cedar revolution”, and other color/velvet “revolutions” in Eastern Europe.
link again,
Rafsanjani’s gambit backfires, by Bhadrakumar
@Everybody:
The information posted regarding Ayatollah Saanei is false and fabricated. While it is true that the Ayatollah issued a decree ordering his followers to vote for Mousavi he has not called for the appointment of Ahmedinijad illegitmate. He infact wrote a letter to Mousavi today or yesterday given the time zone stating that he fully backs him and asked him to pursue his issues in a calm manner and that he is upset at what has happened in the past few days as it should have been a joyful occasion.
Tonight there is no siege in Qum around his house as I have just phoned Qum to confirm this.
Calling Qom to check a fact.
This simple sentence contains something crucial, which is so sorely missing from 99% of what is being written right now.
Calling Qom to check a fact.
Is that not something Pepe Escobar could have done?!
Alas, I am sad to say that I think that Pepe Escobar did call Tehran and the Mousavi campaign HQ to be specific and that he is simply repeating that which he was told. Pepe is not alone in walking into this trap.
The more this situation develops the more I start getting a sense of what is going on and the true nature of this story is not centered on Musavi, but on RAFSANJANI who is clearly pulling the strings and it is Rafsanjani’s “PR machine” which very skillfully “sold” this story to the West, even to some of the best reporters out there.
In the pages of history, this entire business will rank up there with Timisoara, Racak, Markale or Colin Powell’s “WMDs” in Iraq.
Guys, somebody is messing with out brains!!!
Is anybody noticing this besides me?!
Peace all,
Reports are circulating around that Rafsanjani is trying to get support of the Assembly to level upto Ayatollah Khamenai. He has the authority to remove him remember has the WF position is subjected to scrutiny by the Assembley and this could be a potential face off between the two.
Ya Baqiyatullah
Ya Baqiyatullah,
Yes, as expected. According to the article I posted above: “The regime was already well into the election campaign when it realized that behind the clamor for a change of leadership in the presidency, Rafsanjani’s challenge was in actuality aimed at Khamenei’s leadership and that the election was a proxy war.”
Thus, the author says the most difficult part comes now: “engaging the house that Khamenei presides over as the monarch of all he surveys”
More Bullshit:
This time it’s the otherwise excellent Counterpunch which falls in line.
Check this out this one:
http://www.counterpunch.org/fiyouzat06152009.html
What is wrong with the Left?! Is it your garden variety anti-religious histeria or are they still pissed about the Tudeh getting crushed after the Revolution?!
Still, now they can just swallow the propaganda of the super Unholy Alliance of the Zionists, the Iranian Monarchists and the Rafsanjani camp is beyond me….
Has everybody just gone mad?!
VS,
Something very very strange is transpiring.
Wayne Madsen’s free web site(he has a pay web site too) has several jaw dropping posts (and his personal comments) on this Iranian election. They defy logic.
“INTERNATIONAL NEWS:
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani congratulates Ahmadinejad on election win. Talabani’s Kurdish regional government is also supported by Israel. Israel, Kurds, Ahmadinejad: the “alliance” becomes clear.
Afghan president Hamid Karzai congratulates Ahmadinejad. Another sign that Iranian “radical Holocaust denier” Ahmadinejad is an all-too-convenient neocon stooge like the leadership of U.S. client governments in Baghdad and Kabul.
Leadership of UAE conragtulates Ahmadinejad on “victory.” Iraq, Afghanistan, and UAE congratulations to election thief is a trifecta for Israel and the neocons.
Ayatoallah Khamenei orders Guardian Council to examine charges of vote rigging in Iranian election. Security forces arrest opposition members and storm Tehran University, killing three.”
http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/
Linking Ahmadinejad with Israel???
Thank you for this article.
I am not surprised re: the left’s attitude, and buying into the CNN spin. I’ve been following the left’s Islamophobia, and anti-religion trajectory for sometime now —- this is its logical conclusion now: back a rich upper class movement against the working class – because the rich dudes are relatively more “secular” and “liberal” oriented.
Further, in most cases, the western left has long given up on the working class in its own cities, and neighborhoods – focusing instead on culture change issues.
So, why expect the left to do any better on Iran? I don’t —
Propaganda bullshit.
@Anonymous
Interesting comment care to expand rather than just dissmising it without any refutation :)
BTW, the twitter posts appear to be a concerted effort by a dedicated few:
Proof: Effort to Destabilize Iran Via Twitter
http://eaazi.blogspot.com/2009/06/charting-stocks-proof-israeli-effort-to.html
-AA
“What is wrong with the Left?! Is it your garden variety anti-religious histeria or are they still pissed about the Tudeh getting crushed after the Revolution?!”–Saker
I happen to think that it is the “garden variety anti-religious histeria” that is driving the Left more than anything. And of course religiously maintaining their definition of secularism as being the most supreme way of life….
When you reject a belief in an All Mighty Creator for all mankind, you will basically replace this void with something else in its place. For atheist Leftists it is their definition of secularism which they want to force on everyone else…. Even secular Leftists can become extreme in their beliefs where they expect everyone else to be just like them…
1. “Iran has a rural population which amounts to 65% or so of the total population, most of these people love Ahmedinijad simply because of what he has bought for the rural areas in his first term in the office.”
2. Is it possible that rural Iran, where less than 35 percent of the country’s population lives, provided Ahmadinejad the 63 percent of the vote he claims to have won? That would contradict my own research in Iran’s villages over the past 30 years, including just recently. (eric hooglund–http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/irans-rural-vote-and-election-fraud/
HOW MUCH EXACTLY THE NUMBERS OF RURAL POPULATION IRAN HAS?
Iran’s rural population does not amount to 35%. It is much more than that. 62% of votes in total are divided between the rural and the urban areas. However the rural areas giving the majority of the votes. Also do remember that Ahmedinijad won in places such as Tabriz and others which made the basis for the landslide.
Places which are semi rural would also make a difference in the voting. For instance, Qum is not fully urban but it is not full rural either. The same can be said for places like Isfahan. Parts of Isfahan are developed and give the urban vibe but there is a rural aspect to the city.
The best way to assess is by having a look at the provincial results of the elections.