By Aram Mirzaei for the Saker blog
The proposed 25-year deal between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China, titled “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between I.R. Iran and P.R. China” has been heavily discussed recently. While not all details in the deal are clear, it has been described by Iranian and Chinese officials as specifying the roadmap of developing and deepening Tehran-Beijing ties in “Political”, “Executive Cooperation”, “Human and Cultural”, “Judiciary, Security and Defence”, and “Regional and International” domains.
It remains unclear when such a deal will be formally clinched. But Iran’s government says the two sides have so far finalized at least 75 percent of the draft version of the pact. Once concluded, the text of the deal will be discussed for final approval in Iran’s Parliament. However, many lawmakers are already critical of the government for not consulting the deal before entering into negotiations with China.
What has so far been made public is that the 25-year cooperation roadmap will cover economy, security and military areas. Iran will reportedly supply the PRC (People’s Republic of China) with oil for 25 years. In return, China will invest heavily in Iran’s infrastructure as well as banking and telecommunications sectors, amounting to some 400 billion dollars. Reactions, both inside and outside Iran have been mixed. Some inside Iran have criticized the deal since they believe that the Islamic Republic has negotiated it from a position of weakness, in order to escape the failing JCPOA deal and its aftermath – Washington’s maximum pressure campaign. Supporters of the deal argue that the deal is a political victory against what Beijing and Tehran have identified as a common opponent.
Naturally, the US State Department and anti-Iran Farsi media outlets based outside Iran have denounced the possible deal without even knowing all the details. The US State Department went on to issue tweets in Farsi, comparing the potential Iran-China accord to the 1828 Treaty of Turkmenchay which was a peace treaty between Qajar Iran and the Russian Empire. By the treaty, Iran had to cede to Russia control of most of its areas in the South Caucasus.
As per usual, social media is the main tool they use for their propaganda. Certain think tanks led by Western governments, particularly the United States spread rumours and lies. For instance, they have created various hashtags like “No to Iran Sellout!” This has been picked up by Iranian analysts too:
“Based on our monitoring of social media, we spotted the first analyses on the Iran-China cooperation plan in US media. What the mainly US media claim is reproduced in social media, particularly Twitter. Those who are active in cyberspace and social media include users affiliated with the Zionist regime, users affiliated with the Mujahideen Khalq Organization as they are supposed to insinuate wrong interpretations into public minds in Persian language. MKO agents based in Albania and benefiting from Western funding are involved. The Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia are also cooperating by spending money and offering human resources. From as early on as 1995, Iran has been aware of the importance of the Beijing- Tehran axis as a counterweight to the U.S.-led global order. Iran and China share a desire to engage in revisionist regional moves without wanting to start a large-scale war; to put an end to US imperialism and military supremacy in the Persian Gulf region. It is a valid question however, whether this will not lead to a Chinese show of military might in the region.
Our ties with some nations may be focused on a single aspect like agriculture, culture and energy. But with China, we have reached the conclusion that we can cooperate in academic, cultural and IT and economic sectors. And regarding the strategic aspects, our ties with some countries may be periodic. But the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China eye long-term cooperation. “ Hamed Vafai, China Affairs Analyst
The Iranians outside of Iran who oppose the deal are often pro-Western and echo the same lies spewed by Washington – for example when they claim that Iran has sold its soil to China, offering Beijing Iran’s Kish Island as a military base and so on. The sheer hypocrisy by Pro-US Iranians is mind-boggling. The things they accuse the Islamic Republic of doing for China are the same things their beloved “King” did for the US, if not even more. I don’t need to go into detail over how subservient the Iranian monarchy was to Washington.
Tehran has made it clear that this deal is to protect the Iranian economy from US sanctions, and that it will not cede any part of its soil to China. Tehran rejected the criticism saying is it aimed at appeasing the enemies of the Islamic Republic. “Unfortunately, a destructive line of propaganda has been initiated and directed from outside Iran against the expansion of Iran’s relations with neighbors and especially (with) China and Russia,” Iranian president’s chief of staff, Mahmoud Vaezi, said last week.
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Seyed Abbas Mousavi dismissed unfounded claims of Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf being leased out to China, oil sold at exclusively low prices, or the deployment of Chinese armed forces in the Gulf, an invading force in Iranian waters that is. He said such claims were too ridiculous to even merit a denial. Apparently the Chinese response to the allegations was not so different.
So what’s in it for the parties involved?
There is no doubt that Washington’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Washington has left the Iranian economy in a very difficult position, especially since the EU has betrayed the deal as well. Part of the blame has been placed on the Rouhani government, which I believe to be wrong. It is counterproductive to assume that the Islamic Republic’s commitment to the JCPOA triggered the crisis since the pressure on Iran’s economy was no less severe before the JCPOA.
The trade deal itself is one of necessity as the West has failed to live up to their promises and proven once and for all that they can never be trusted. Not only have they reneged on their commitments, but they also continue to wage psychological warfare on Iran through propaganda and lies. Bearing in mind that Washington has forbidden many countries from doing deals with Tehran, I see no reason to be critical of this potential deal with the PRC as of yet. This is about the Islamic Republic’s very survival, something that the IRGC and the top leadership in Tehran have also recognized – which explains why they have remained so silent about it.
The potential partnership offers Iran a way out of the harsh US sanctions. For Iran this would translate into an injection of approximately 280 billion dollars for its energy sector and 120 billion dollars for manufacturing and transport infrastructure. In return for a discounted oil-flow to China and preferential Chinese access to various sectors of the Iranian economy, Iran would have its infrastructure given a much needed boost. The deal includes 100 projects which defy US unilateral sanctions against Iran.
China is the only remaining official buyer of Iranian oil and has strongly opposed Washington’s sanctions. It defies the US also economically together with Russia and Iran, as the three have attempted to replace the US dollar in their dealings, an act that inspired Pakistan and may have other regional states follow. Why wouldn’t the Islamic Republic with its free-falling rial want China as a potential shield against US sanctions and even motions at the UN Security Council? What other options does Iran have? To negotiate a new JCPOA with Washington, one which the US would at any time once more renege on? Besides, it should be known to all by now that the nuclear issue is not really why Washington is sanctioning the Islamic Republic.
The PRC is viewed in the West as a threat both because of its rising economic power, and more recently because of its potential political power, poised to challenge Washington’s hegemony. Crude accusations of Chinese imperialism and false expressions of “worry” for poor Asian and African countries aside, the West is worried because China’s entry into the Middle East would enhance Beijing’s position not only in West Asia, but in Central Asia and the Caucasus as well. For China, Iran could very well be a gateway into the Middle East, as it has historically also been. Iran has connections in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon where China has up until recently been absent, and their partnership could flourish as Iraq and Syria will rebuild their countries after decades of US imposed wars. The Islamic Republic can introduce lucrative projects to the Chinese who may not know the region quite well.
All this gives Washington clear reason to be annoyed since it would make the US sanctions rather useless. But Washington also knows that the implications of this potential deal are far greater than just helping Iran.
Washington knows that its position in the Middle East as the sole dominant power alongside Israel is being challenged by Russia, Iran and now China as well. The Zionist axis has lost the struggle for Syria and is desperately clinging onto the oil fields in the eastern parts of the country, they have lost in Iraq as Baghdad wants them out, and they will lose elsewhere too. Even Turkey – a NATO ally – is a loose cannon that Washington cannot trust, especially since Ankara has repeatedly refused to follow Washington’s orders. This leaves Washington with the vassal reactionary monarchies in the Persian Gulf and Israel as the only reliable “friends” of Washington’s. The birth of an alliance/united front with a common cause against the Zionist empire could potentially lead to an East-West divide situation not so different from the Cold War in Europe.
Personally, I welcome it. A bipolar balance in the region would deter Washington further from regime change attempts. The only reason for Washington’s audacity to start the Syrian and Iraqi wars were because of the power vacuum left after the dissolution of the Soviet Union – without a counter-weight against it, Washington has been free to do as it pleases in the region for the past 3 decades.
Necessity will drive China and Iran to deepen relations. Both share grievances against the US and its vassals, both are being threatened in their own regions by Washington and together with the Russian Federation, they can finally bring back a balance of power in the world. When it is all said and done, let’s see what these two ancient Asian cultures can achieve together.
Perhaps because both countries couldn’t care less about USkies wishes? Or perhaps because the chinese have the manpower and production means and the Iranians have a lot of energy sources? Now, it would be interesting to see what both countries could do together.
Could become a relationship like that of US and SA minus dollar.Maybe to support yuan at some point.
O,and India gets the shaft as it deserves.
Well Irans revolution is a socialist revolution so in a way it’s kind of surprising it’s taken so long! I don’t see that there is a choice in reality, the US is utterly demented and in no way a safe bet, better to abandon them and link up with Russia and China. No matter what the US does the oil and gas will keep flowing in all directions and this pact will have complete control of the straights of hormuz. That’s a headache for the psychos in Washington.
All one has to do is look at the reaction of the Empire to this deal. We are witnessing the breakdown of American capitalism, a direct consequence of decades of neo-liberal economic policies- multiple tax cuts for the wealthy, financial deregulation, including repeal of Glass Steagall Act, job outsourcing, lack of spending on public and private infrastructure and spending astronomical amounts of taxpayer money on the Pentagon and strategic debacles in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. To put this in perspective, Federal spending on post-911 wars exceeds $6.4 Trillion (Link: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar). The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed the fragility of the 2008 ‘recovery’ (which was never resolved) and has accelerated US economic decline, vividly seen by exploding levels of government, corporate, municipal and consumer debt. The only thing the US has left is to threaten any country viewed as an obstacle to US global hegemony- Germany about completing Nord Stream II pipeline, whine about the Iran-China deal, ferment regime change in Belarus, move US troops and tactical nuclear weapons into Poland to threaten Russia The Iran-China deal terrifies the ruling elite in the west, allows Iran to bypass US economic sanctions, increases the use of non-dollar currencies for trade, further solidifies Iran’s position as a major power broker in the region. A strong alliance between Iran, China and Russia serves as a strong counterweight to US/NATO and vassal states (Israel, Gulf monarchies). Iran has no need for nuclear weapons as they will backed up by China, Russia and potentially Pakistan. This is another nail in the coffin of the US Empire.
The US is in decline and China is on the rise.
Since all currency in the US financial system is created by private banks ex nihilo as interest bearing debt, such that no debts = no money, the inexorable yearly increases in both private and public debt is what is not sustainable. The US Treasury meets the interest payments on their debt of $26 trillion, by creating even more money as debt. Consumers of goods and services are now finding it increasingly difficult to meet their financial obligations.
It is difficult to put a dollar value on the quality of life. Poverty is not just the lack of money and possessions. The World Bank defines poverty as the pronounced deprivation of well-being.
In the U.S. pronounced deprivation of well-being is brought on by this unmanageable debt, inferior or nonexistent health care, increases in homicides, suicides and drug and alcohol deaths, unaffordable housing, outlandish higher education costs, growing painkiller dependencies, steadily diminishing work opportunities, the stress of uncertain paychecks, and the threat of homelessness.
Mr Mirzaei, you missed a key item in your analysis. The US has implicitly threatened GCC oil supplies to China by hinting that the US toady GCC oil could get sanctioned for China. Iran didn’t approach China, but China approached Iran. As the US/ China relations deteriorate, there is a strong possibility the US will redirect more and more GCC oil & LNG to India and EU among other buyers and away from China to put pressure on China. Just thought you should know this.
The author mentions: “Some inside Iran have criticized the deal since they believe that the Islamic Republic has negotiated it from a position of weakness, in order to escape the failing JCPOA deal and its aftermath – Washington’s maximum pressure campaign.”
It is true that Iran is facing Washington’s maximum pressure, but it is not negotiating from a position of weakness because China is also facing tremendous US pressures – 25% tariffs on most Chinese trades, global campaign against Huawei, Tik Tok, military pressures in South China Sea, Indian-China conflicts,… etc. Of course, China is bigger so it can stand more of the pressures. But it is definitely the best time to negotiate with China.
Furthermore, this deal will strengthen both countries when they negotiate further with others. Iran could start negotiating with Japan, Korea, EU, India and others for investments, and China could start negotiating with other oil producing countries for long term yuan-based contracts. So this is definitely a win-win for both Iran and China.
The observation in comments below that “Iran could become to China what SA is to the USA” is an apt one.
At one level the US empire is protesting the deal but at another level this is a managed hand over. Some time ago someone worked out that empires rise and fall as described by the preverbal “wheel of fortune”, so they stepped off the wheel.
The US economy is being dismantled and undermined, no investment in infrastructure, the Kissinger facilitated deal to move manufacturing to China, the handover of military technology, the Soros coined “New Financial World Order”, the Marxist ideology of the left as described by Dr Jordon Petterson, the now pervasive China narrative influencing everything from box office to Ivy league university.
All US conquests in the ME, Gen Wesley’s “7 countries in 5 years” + add SA to that, although appearing to block “One belt One Road” will ultimately I believe clear the way for China and for that matter “Israel” IF things continued to their natural conclusion.