RT TV has just announced that the Shia of Saudi Arabia have declared that this Friday will be a “day of rage”.
Considering that the US Empire will use absolutely all of its capabilities and resources to maintain its control on Saudi Arabia it is frighting to think of what could happen if Saudi Arabia blows up. Saudi Arabia is neither Egypt, nor Libya. the differences are substantial.
First, I suspect that the grip of the House of Saudi on the country they rule is far stronger that Mubarak’s. Furthermore, I cannot image that the Saudis would have courage, intelligence, staying power and sophistication which the Egyptians have shown.
Second, the Saudi system of cronyism, patronage, tribalism and family connections is far more effective than the one implemented by Gaddafi (judging by how fast Libyan fat cats have turned their coats and supported the rebellion in an amazing 180deg turn).
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| Ikhwan leader |
Lastly, the KSA has a praetorian guard in the form of the “National Guard” which is not at all what the name might suggest. It is, in reality, a successor force to the infamous Inkhwan, a uniquely Wahabi kind of terror squad: very primitive, totally ruthless and utterly brainwashed. The NG (currently 125’000 soldiers plus another 25’000 tribal thugs) is just the same Inkhwan, but with a modern polish on it, though it is still always commanded by a high ranking member of the royal family. This force is mobile and extremely well armed (courtesy of Uncle Sam). Interestingly, this force has no main battle tanks which, if needed, proves again that the only ‘enemy’ it is trained to fight (by Uncle Sam, of course) is the civilian population of the KSA.
Now consider this: if the Saudi regime throws the National Guard against the Shia of the Eastern Province then we can expect a bloodbath several orders of magnitude bigger then the relatively tame combats (so far) in Libya. Needless to say, nobody in the Hague will investigate anything, no UNSC sanctions will be adopted, no monies abroad seized, etc. So what will happen then?
Will it be possible for Iran to stand by while Shias are murdered by the 21-century version of the Inkhwan? I really don’t know.
Iran could very easily defeat the KSA, of course, in particular in the Shia areas of the country. Both the Saudi military and the NG are lousy military forces, in particular compared to the Iranian military or the Pasdaran. In case of military conflict the outcome would be preordained. The problem is that the Saudi Shia have the bad luck of living right on top of the KSA’s biggest oil reserves and there is absolutely no way, no way in hell, that the US Empire will ever allow Iran to control this territory.
In other words, the internal crisis in the KSA might well result in a US attack on Iran.
Nobody will be happier than I if one day the House of Saud falls and Shia of the KSA recover their freedom from the Wahabi crazies, but I have to point out that unlike the events in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya, a crisis in the KSA would entail a far more dangerous situation which could very rapidly become internationalized.
The Saker
PS: don’t take this to the bank, but as far as I know, the favorite fetish of crazed Wahabis (Chechnia, Bosnia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, etc.) for cutting the throats of their prisoners comes from a desire to be Ikhwan-like as the latter are the ones who started this fashion. I am not sure about that though, nor do I know where the Ikhwan got that idea.
Does anybody know if there any Koranic or “Sunnic” (is that English?) basis for throat-cutting?
The Shia on their own wouldn’t stand a chance unless they were joined by the Sunni population. As you say any intervention by Iran would immediately be squashed by the US and the Iranians must know that. If the worst happens Tehran will have no choice but to watch as the Shia are slaughtered.
Brilliant analysis, Saker, and not a perspective that I would ever have considered. I wonder what the potential for a non-Shia revolt is?
Nobody will be happier than I if one day the House of Saud falls and Shia of the KSA recover their freedom from the Wahabi crazies, but I have to point out that unlike the events in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya, a crisis in the KSA would entail a far more dangerous situation which could very rapidly become internationalized.
Like the regime Pakistan that is engulfed in civil war (thank god) the regime in KSA has been the number 1 whore of spreading there evil of Islamic terrorism and jihadism around the world.
The American and Brits will not tolerate there vassal state become overthrown by a Shia government and will ruthlessly quell all Shia protestors/insurgents.
Let’s hope they get the most radical jihadists government to rule over them just like they did to other people around the world. Let them see what it is like to live under the sword.
With Saudi/CIA/MI6 support of terrorist insurgents around the world they could easily bring in tens of thousands of jihadists as a mercenary force.
I see no negative aspects of a KSA civil war apart from hyper high oil prices.
@Sean:I wonder what the potential for a non-Shia revolt is?
Here your guess is as good as mine. Still, since you ask, here is my guess:
I hear that a lot of younger Saudis want change, but that really does not mean much. Another group of discontents are, obviously, the Shia. Then, there are quite a few hardcore crazed Wahabi a la Bin Laden who think that the regime is not crazy enough already. I suspect that another discontent group would be the Sunnis who don’t care for the kind of Wahabi insanity which the regime is imposing on the country. Lastly, there are A LOT of unemployed people (in a country in which 50% of the potential workforce – women – is severely limited in what kind job it can do!!) and quite a few foreigners. So all in all, there is definitely a potential for non-Shia discontent, but will that be enough to reach a critical mass and explode? That I have to say I very much doubt. But then, I never thought that Mubarak would get the boot either.
Again, Saudi Arabia is almost on par with Israel as truly a core element of the “axis of kindness” of the US Empire; they are a tag-team, really, and I very much doubt that Israel could outlast the Saudi regime by much. The Neocons (reloaded) who are running the Empire under Obama fully understand that and they are not going to let it go.
The really interesting question is: does the US Empire even have what it takes to maintain the House of Saud in power? I would say yes, but barely and the writing is on the wall for all of them: Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US Empire itself. But remember, this is the Middle-East and these folks have a totally different understanding of time and they are smart enough to defeat an empire slowly, one tactical defeat at a time, until it all reaches a critical mass..
@jack:the regime Pakistan that is engulfed in civil war (thank god) (…) Let’s hope they get the most radical jihadists government to rule over them (…) I see no negative aspects of a KSA civil war
You are the same ‘Jack’ who was making some statements about Christianity, right? Well, I wonder what psychotic branch of pseudo-Christianity – if any – you decided to affiliate yourself with before spewing such hateful crap. May I suggest that this kind rhetoric would be far more suited in the company of skinheads, neo-Nazis, and other beer guzzling racists than, say, amongst the Apostles?
Jack, I really hope, for your own sake that you drunk when you wrote that crap. If not, I question the rationale for your posting here.
A strictly Shia’ uprising in Saudi will fail. I’m not sure what Iran can do to help. Open warfare is not an option, because, as you said, the US will never allow it. Arming Shia rebels is easier said than done, and it also requires training them. That would be a multi year process and it would have to start long before the uprising, not in the middle of it.
But there is no reason to assume that the uprising will be strictly confined to the Shia corner of Saudi. There have been plenty of Sunni dissidents in Saudi and there is plenty of poverty in Sunni areas, which is particularly galling in such a wealthy country.
In the event of a Sunni uprising, the National Guard would be a less reliable tool.
All in all, though, you are correct. A Saudi revolution is much more of a long shot, than in Egypt, Tunisia, etc.
But…it is inevitable. The Saudi royal family will one day fall. If not this Friday, then, InSha ‘Allah, another.
@Lysander: yes, you are correct, it is inevitable.
Isn’t it amazing that history is so full of situation in which the inevitable outcome is also impossible until, of course, it happens?
(-: good topic for a PhD. thesis here :-)
Kind regards,
The Saker
Saker, it occurs to me that this is precisely the reason why Iran’s nuclear program is feared so much. It does not matter that Iran isn’t actually building a bomb (though, honestly, if we wake up one morning to find they have successfully tested a nuclear device few would be happier than me) It is because they cannot afford to take even the smallest of chances. The loss of Saudi Arabia would basically be the end of the empire. PERIOD!!!
Now, Imagine if there were a Shia uprising in Saudi AFTER it is clear that Iran has both nukes and a delivery system. Now their National Guard will have to be on a much shorter leash.
Of course, I know Iran isn’t really pursuing nukes. But boy, I sure do wish it would.
@Lysander: interesting thought! As you know, I am generally rather pro-Iranian, though not unconditionally, but I don’t believe that a nuclear capability would really protect them. The fact is that nukes are VERY hard to use.
Sure, they are supposed to deter, but if deterrence fails, what do you do next? Because once you have used your nukes, your deterrent capability falls to zero, right? You cannot scare somebody with a bullet you already fired. This is why to be effective nuclear weapons need to be part of a sophisticated and redundant nuclear and conventional escalatory capability. Alas, Iran does not have that. Sure, they could fire some nukes towards US bases, but THEN WHAT? Then the entire military might of the USA would be crushing down on them, and everybody would have to agree that Uncle Sam this time has the right to use his big sticks (nuclear or not).
No, the USSR and the USA are, I would argue, the only two countries on the planet who really have to “full enchilada” needed to be a credible nuclear force. So whatever else we can say about the US military, I can tell you that the US nuclear forces extremely capable. You do not want to fight the USA in a type of conflict in prepared for for many decades. Saddam tried that in a conventional sense, and I don’
t believe that Iran will try that in a nuclear sense – they are too smart for that.
What you need to do to defeat the Yanks is impose a type of conflict they are NOT used to, they have NOT trained for, and in which they are at the most DIS-advantaged. Iran did a absolutely brilliant job at defeating the USA in Iraq and it did that without firing a single shot. That is the kind of ‘war’ against the USA which can be won. Or what Hezbollah did to Israel. You simply do not want to ever fight your enemy on his own turf – you cannot beat the Americans at the “American type of war”. So the single biggest rule is this: impose the type of conflict which your enemy FEARS most.
I would say that so far Iran has done a FANTASTIC job in the most difficult of circumstances. If the world had any brains left at all it would recognize the sheer genius of the Iranian low-key non-provocative and soft-power approach.
If you want, I can write a post fully dedicated to the issue of nuclear deterrence. Its a complex topic which I studied for 2 years and which is often misunderstood. Just let me know.
Cheers!
“If you want, I can write a post fully dedicated to the issue of nuclear deterrence. Its a complex topic which I studied for 2 years and which is often misunderstood. Just let me know.”
The question was directed to Lysander, but I must say I would be very interested in reading such a post.
About Iran defeating Saudi Arabia: are you sure? I wouldn’t consider much highly the training and morale of the Saudi Arabian military, but they have very modern and powerful weapons. For example, their airforce has very sophisticated combat aircrafts like the F-15 (more than 100), Eurofighter Typhoon and Panavia Tornado (both the interceptor and attack versions). Iran has mostly American planes from the 1970’s which, though very well maintained, are completely obsolete. And the most modern they have – a few dozens MiG-29 and Su-24M – won’t make much difference.
I have never been to the KSA, and the people I know, who have lived there for a good while, are all Arab foreigners who say that the country has basically remained opaque to them. So no insights from me at all, only a suggestion: may we please all stop calling the population oppressed by the House of Saud, Saudis. It’s insulting.
Other than that, Saker: Wasn’t it you who quoted approvingly that ‘every day is Ashura and all the earth is Kerbala’? Well, if taken seriously, then surely now is the time.
@Carlo:About Iran defeating Saudi Arabia: are you sure?
No, in these matters you can never be sure. But I am pretty confident, yes.
Yes, the Saudi Air Force has aircraft which are vastly superior to what the Iranian have. But that reminds me of what one of my teachers (a USAF Colonel who flew missions over Vietnam and who was a top analyst for Northrop) like to tell:
“You beat the crap out of their air force only to come back to your base and see their officers playing pool in your mess”.
What this means is that no war can be won from the air. Moronic US politicians think that is possible, but competent USAF officers fully know that this is baloney. One the ground you can bet that the Iranians would win. Remember, they already had a war like that: against Iraq. And they sure learned the lessons of this war.
Also, there is the fact that Iranians are probably not going to engage the KSA Air Force in the air, but on the ground (missiles, special ops, etc.).
And remember: technology does not win wars: willpower does (unless the imbalance is truly huge). Again, the Iranians are very smart folks and they will never give the Saudis the kind of war the Saudis want – one pitting a low to mid tech Iranian air force to a high tech KSA air force. Nor will they deploy in a manner which will allow the KSA air force to make maximal use of its close air support capabilities.
But all of that is speculation for the time being. The Saudis don’t have the nerve to attack the Iranians and the Iranians have the brains not to attack Saudi Arabia.
And if the Shia in KSA are being slaughtered Iran will have many more options than conventional war, by the way. They could even use Iraqi Shia as proxies. Or use Yemen. Or just fight a good propaganda war. The options are limitless and the Iranians very crafty.
It’s academic anyway because the US would intervene before the Iranians had a chance to seriously hit the KSA. If it weren’t for the US the House of Saud would have been toppled years ago.
Thanks a lot Saker. I hate to impose on your limited time, but yes, I second Carlo. If you do find the time, we would absolutely love to read about nuclear strategy and game theory and what were some of the possible US-USSR escalation scenarios. It would be extremely edifying for all of us.
@Lysander & Carlo: you got it. As soon as I have some time for that, I will write a “nuclear deterrence 101” :-)
Kindest regards to both of you!!
The Saker
@Guthman: sorry for the late posting of your comment which somehow got stuck in the @#%@%#!@#!!! blogger system.
may we please all stop calling the population oppressed by the House of Saud, Saudis. It’s insulting.
What would you suggest as an appropriate term?
Saker: Wasn’t it you who quoted approvingly that ‘every day is Ashura and all the earth is Kerbala’? Well, if taken seriously, then surely now is the time.
That is *exactly* what has me worried.
Cheer!
You are the same ‘Jack’ who was making some statements about Christianity, right? Well, I wonder what psychotic branch of pseudo-Christianity – if any – you decided to affiliate yourself with before spewing such hateful crap. May I suggest that this kind rhetoric would be far more suited in the company of skinheads, neo-Nazis, and other beer guzzling racists than, say, amongst the Apostles?
The Saudi and Pakistani regime since the mid 70’s affiliation with British and US interests have supported Islamic terrorism around the world in Afghanistan, Africa, Tajikistan, Bosnia, Kosovo, Kashmir and India as a whole, Chechnya and Russia as a whole, Central Asia, China, Philippines, etc including brainwashing kids in Madrassahs.
Hell where ever there is a Muslim community the Saudis will support radical Islam.
For a Christian you do side with Muslim and are an apologist for Muslim extremists and Islamic communities international support.
Is the Saudi and Pakistani regime not racist, fascist state?
Do they not spread it across the world to the tune of billions which can also be said of other Muslim states including Turkey?
So excuse me for not shedding a tear for the demise of these 2 terrorist states.
I think you would be more suited to wearing a Turban than a cross.
@Jack: you are confusing and conflating religion, state, nation, regime, population, sect, school and people. No wonder your conclusions are so stupid (not that this would explain, or much less so excuse, why they are hateful too).
Anyway, here is something I would recommend for you:
http://www.stormfront.org/forum/
Enjoy!
The Saker
@Jack: I think you would be more suited to wearing a Turban than a cross.
Oh and, Jack, Christianity is not about what you wear on your body, but about what you have in your soul:
By this shall all men know that ye are my disciples, if ye have love one to another.
You are confusing and conflating religion, state, nation, regime, population, sect, school and people. No wonder your conclusions are so stupid (not that this would explain, or much less so excuse, why they are hateful too).
Which is all incorporated in the Islamic culture used to promote cultural and ethnic separatism fully supported by the Neocons, Britain and the US.
I expose hate and racism which you seem to condom.
I suppose the fact that Islamic terrorists groups around the world compose a global threat of recruit are financed and base their philosophy on Islamic theological works
In the Koran itself it justifies “armed struggle” which helps explain why Muslim states and countries around the war are engulfed in conflict and civil war.
Islam is the only religion in the world that is in constant conflict with all other religions usually resulting in the ethnic cleansing of their non-Muslim inhabitants which now includes Iraq.
Your Marxist school style defamation is illogical seeing how the Neo-Nazis support Chechen jihadists.
Ukrainian UNA-UNSO paramilitaries fight alongside Chechen militants in Chechnya.
Perhaps you should join the forum and liaison with your Polish, Baltic and Ukrainian friends. Maybe you can meet up at Dudayev square of Dudayev street.
Oh and, Jack, Christianity is not about what you wear on your body, but about what you have in your soul:
I was speaking figuratively.
@Jack: love you to Jack ;-)
Saker,
I am living in Saudi now and I am in agreement with your analysis. I am not convinced that enough of the Saudi people are willing to do what it would take to start a revolution here. I have no contact with the male population here. I do know and have befriended some Saudi women here, but they are not politically involved..The ones I know, do very much detest the treatment of women here and are not accepting of their parent’s cultural practices, yet they still basically have no rights..They are being somewhat pacified with materialism and parties…Many young women just wish and dream to leave here….You are correct in your analysis that this is a very cultural, tribal, and corrupted system…And this goes for the non-religious people as well…Even though they are not happy with the religious establishment here, much of the population is pacified by their cultural/tribal mentalities and the materialism that the oil wealth has brought them…I think that these type of people are not willing to lose these things by rocking the boat…
@Mari:I am living in Saudi now and I am in agreement with your analysis
Dear Mari,
Thanks a lot for saying this – coming from you in the KSA this means a lot to me. After all, I am judging from the outside and I am not a KSA area specialist, so I am always on shaky grounds when talking about the KSA.
Stay safe, stay well, and please be careful in every decision you take,
Peace to you,
The Saker
@VINEYARDSAKER:
I hope you have seen the light and convert back to Orthodox Christianity and not be in the camp of the NWO.
jack: Jack, what are you doing here? Don’t you realize that nobody takes you seriously anymore? Are you really so self-enamored not to realize what you have done to your credibility around here?
I already told you, if you absolutely must, by some strange compulsion, post around here, do the following:
a) think before you post
b) use another nick/handle
Then maybe you have a chance at some interesting exchanges. But right now, you are no more interesting to anybody there than roadkill.
Think about it, ok?
Saker,
Today should be an indicator of what is to come. I heard there will be a curfew enforced after the noon prayer.
Now I have had contact with young educated women from certain segments of the society, who do not represent the entire society of course, which is why I cannot really predict anything, but just go by the little I have gathered. THESE PEOPLE REALLY HATE THE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENT BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE ROYAL FAMILY.
I believe it would take a revolution to get rid of the religious establishment here which I see as working in many ways, hand in hand, with the Royal family. But I am not sure how many Saudis actually see it this way.
Th society is still very closed and divided not only between male and female, but between tribes and the religious and non-religious.
Just to give you an example of how they keep to themselves. My family and I do not live in a compound. We have been renting a house in a neighborhood for almost 2 years now, yet I have never met any of my neighbors who are all Saudi. The situation is the same for other peple I know who are not living on compounds.
How will people like this who are so closed minded and divided between eachother come together to make a revolution?
It could also depend on the areas and how the people from these different areas react with eahother. I am in the capital where I have heard has some of the most unfriendly tribes..
We will just have to wait and see…..
@VINEYARDSAKER:
You write that we should support Islam and Islam is essentially a bulwark against the NWO right?
Then:
a) Since 79 haven’t the US and other states supported international Islamic terrorism?
b) Other than Palestine and Israelis sphere of influence since 79 had a pro-Islamic foreign policy especially after the collapse of the USSR and always without exception supporting Muslims over Christians?
c) With western intelligence support with the financial and ideological backing from Muslim states around the world to the tune of billions haven’t they supported jihad and civil conflict around the world?
d) Are the US through mainly Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Azerbaijan sponsoring and financing fascist Pan Turkish Islamic separatist movements from the Balkans to Eurasia trying to establish an empire which will control the largest reserves of untapped oil and gas to Asia and Europe?
e) Are not most of the civil conflicts and a fair percentage of major organised crime with their affiliated terrorist groups not Islamic based on radical Islamic theology.
f) What other religion in the world is in conflict with every other religion?
And I expect an actually answer this time instead of cheap insults.
I think I feel a ban coming on.