Several sources are reporting Israeli troop concentrations at the border with Lebanon. That, combined with very bellicose statements of at least one Israeli minister are resulting in rumors about an imminent Israeli attack on Lebanon (Netanyahu already denied any such intentions).
I do not believe that the Israelis are about to attack Lebanon, and most definitely not with a ground operation.
The only circumstance in which I think that could happen is as part of a greater US-Israeli attack on Iran. From the Israeli point of view, striking at Hezbollah in Lebanon preemptively as part of a “active defense” of the Jews in Palestine would make sense.
So the real question is: are the USA and Israel about to strike at Iran?
I still believe that such an attack will happen sooner or later. Everything is pretty much in place for it and I am not aware of any indicators and warning which would indicate any further preparatory steps for such an attack. Unless, of course, we consider the current Israeli troop movements as exactly such an indicator.
I sure hope that the folks in Tehran are monitoring this very, very, carefully.
The Saker
With the US committed to more and more troops in Afghanistan, it seems an attack is less likely.
However, I’m on the lookout for the US “cutting a deal” with the Taliban. ie offering them anything for a temporary ceasefire. Then attacking Iran.
But so long as the Afghan insurgency is going full bore, then I doubt it.
An attack on Lebanon is risky for Israel.
1) If there is no overt provocation by Hizbullah, it will be very hard to rationalize an attack as a weapons interdiction project.
2) If the attack is viewed as less than successful, it could mean the end of Bibi’s political Career, along with Barack’s. I don’t think either is willing to risk that.
3) Don’t know if its true, but I’ve heard that winter in Lebanon makes the ground too muddy for mechanized warfare. That’s why all of Israel’s previous attacks have been in late spring or summer. Attacking now would mean giving Hizb’s anti-tank forces an additional advantage.
OTOH, if Israel’s actual goal is to escalate the war to Syria, then it might make sense. That way they could cover up a lackluster performance in Lebanon by bombing Damascus or even seizing Syrian territory.
I’m not sure if Syria has, or even could, make preparations for this besides digging in, firing missiles and hopping for a ceasefire.
Do you know anything about Syria’s Surface to Surface missiles? Could they do enough damage to deter an Israeli attack?
@Lysander:
Keep in mind that an attack on Iran would be a USN and USAF operation, these services are not nearly as over-streched as the Army and Marines. The USA and Israel have more then enough free ressouces to strike with planes and missiles.
I am confidenrt that an attack on Iran would result in a Hezbollah attack on Israel. To preempt would make sense. From the Israeli point of view the place to destroy a max number of Hezbollah missiles is on the ground, not with some fancy air defense systems.
Tanks are very good at handling mud, at least the ones I know best (Russian ones). I cannot imagine that the Merkava are so friggin heavy that their ground pressure would make the suceptilbe to normal winter conditions in Lebanon.
Bombing Syria is always a “feel good” option I suppose. But again, in my scenario, a shooting war begins with a strike on Iran. Now, bombing Iran AND Hezbollah AND Syria is still possible, but that just would not make sense, at least to me. Syria does indeed have missiles, but it also has plenty of lucrative target which the Israelis can strike at. In contrast, Hezbollah offers no such options.
I don’t think that Syria has much deterrent capability towards Israel. It’s Hezbollah which they need to fear most.
These are only my subjective opinions. You never really know how crazy the stupid Israelis can get. I never would have imagined that these morons would launch a ground operation in Lebanon and yet they did. And Gaza was such a pitiful failure too.
The IDF is commanded by idiots, its soldiers are cowards, and all of them are deluded racists. That is not the kind of military force whose actions I can predict too well.
Your guess is as good – or better – as mine.
Cheers!
Hi guys,
Why wouldn’t the israeli’s attack Lebanon with a ground force? Israel’s previous air-centric campaign was a complete fiasco, it would seem to me that a future war would contain a more deliberate ground based operation, unless of course you think they’re just not going to attack Lebanon again, which somehow, I doubt.
I think that their best bet would be to sit on the border and wait for ‘provocations’, and quickly move to try and hold and clear some small border village, and quickly offer a peace predicated on their retention of real estate coupled with a threat to quickly escalate to another deadly air campaign, repeating the whole process ad nauseam. This would force Hezbollah to choose between the re-decimation of Lebanon and their mantle as champions of resistance. Of course that’s just wild speculation not based on any kind of facts, but the point is that Israel probably doesn’t think of itself as completely lacking in options with ground forces.
I don’t think a Hezbollah attack on Israel in case of an attack on Iran is automatic, although the impression that it would be is deliberate, in any case the ambiguity is enough to warrant Israeli ‘pre-emption’, which almost renders the debate moot.
Talking about the attack on Iran, do you really think that Israeli resources have any bearing at all on the overall equation? I would think the complexity/politcis of a joint operations would be such a headache, and the returns so minimal, that it would be easier for the US to just go it alone. Also, you say that the USN/USAF are not overstreched and have the resources to carry out this kind of operation, regardless of the hardships that the army/marines are facing, but wouldn’t US strategists take into account that the ground forces would be suceptible to retaliation regardless of which branches carry out the intial attacks?
For my part, I doubt the US is going to risk an attack on Iran any time soon. Obama has proven himself a coward, and everyone seems fairly happy with his current combination of assasinations/political interference, he’s not going to screw with the only thing he’s gotten right in his presidency so far.
Masoud
Thanx Saker, on an unrelated note, did you see the todayszaman article about the Military’s plan for a total national takeover? It was much more than just a coup.
I read it through warincontext.org and it seems its all over the Turkish press. If you or any of your Turkish or Kurdish readers have further details or impressions, I would be very grateful.
The links never come out fully, but here it is;
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-199301-newly-exposed-coup-planned-to-turn-the-clock-back-to-1923.html
“According to the coup plan — titled the Balyoz (Sledgehammer) Security Operation Plan — all the key posts in the country, public and private, would be occupied by active and retired members of the military to “get rid of every single threat to the secular order of the state.” “
@Masoud: Israel got such a beating in 2006 that it should really, REALLY, think twice (thrice) about trying another ground operation in Lebanon. Just think about these three facts:
1) Israel could not secure Bint Jbeil, right across its border, in 33 days of combat.
2) It took only about 1000 Hezbollah soldiers to fully stop the IDF
3) Hezbollah’s most capable troops where in fact, north of the Litani river.
Now, I agree that Israel did definitely do a “lessons learned” about all this. But the fundamental equation will not be changed by that. Not only that: keep in mind that Hezbollah was born UNDER the Israeli occupation. For Hezbollah, being already occupied is not a disaster or a calamity – its what they are used to. Lastly, Hezbollah has had ample opportunity and time to rearm and also learn from their (very few) mistakes. No, a ground operation inside Lebanon would be a certain disaster for Israel, make no mistake.
Also, there is NO WAY Hezbollah will EVER make peace with Israel or even stop attacks if as much as 1 square meter of Lebanese territory is occupied by the IDF. They don’t accept the Shabaa farms, they will never acceot Bint Jbeil or Saida.
I might be mistaken, but I am confident that Hezbollah would immediately strike at Israel should the “Jewish state” strike at Iran. Always remeber that the spiritual leader of Hezbollah is NOT the Lebanese Shia Sheikh Fadlallah, but the Azeri-born Iranian Ali Khamenei.
I cannot go into the details of the various scenarii of a US/Israeli attack on Iran, but I did write a piece about it a couple of years ago which is not too horribly outdated. So please check it out here:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2007/07/irans-asymmetrical-response-options.html
To make sure, this stuff IS dated. Still, it’s basic parameters have not changed too much. Take a look at it and if you have any comments/questions please let me know, ok?
The Saker
@Lysander: cannot write more now. Will get back to you later. Cheers!
@Lysander” lemme see if I can get some help with this. stay tuned.
“But so long as the Afghan insurgency is going full bore, then I doubt it.”
This is just another fallacy among a long, sad line of others. The Afghan Taliban is anything but “full bore”. Consider the recent attack on Kabul that took place last week…a meticulous, well-planned attack involving a dozen armed men in explosive belts resulted in a low number of casualties and failed to breach any targets. In fact, America had a more devastating day not long after when a gunman attacked in Appomattox, Virginia. Compared to other conflicts around the world, Afghanistan is relatively stable, including our own neighbors here in North America. Last year, the violence was worse in Ciudad Juarez, northern Mexico, than entire provinces in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan is in full-blown insurgency, how would you define what’s happening in North America?
Now, Afghanistan has managed to stave off high-profile terrorist attacks because Afghans know who the enemy is, at least if you believe every poll that has been taken. The Taliban have a support rating of somewhere in the single digits.
Compare this to neighboring Pakistan, where support for religious fundamentalism is much higher. The country is reeling from one disastrous strike after another as it literally falls apart. Instead of pointing the finger at the Taliban and the other “resistance” figures, Pakistani police, military, and even government officials tend to blame India, Blackwater, Israel, and America, condemning the state to backwardness, incompetence, and a complete lack of resolve to route out the cancer that has made its way all the way to the highest levels of government and security.
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“Bombing Syria is always a “feel good” option I suppose.”
Iran deployed its “feel good” option back in June when the Basiji were unleashed on the young people of the country…who “declared war on God”, according to the delusional clerics of Qom. These guys know they wouldn’t last more than a few days if their Revolutionary MiGs danced with an American F-22, so the only solution is to accuse defenseless, unarmed students of being “CIA agents” and bring down the clubs and bullets on them.
I’m in agreement with you guys that an attack from either (America or Khamnei) side is very unlikely, especially when “Marg bar dictator!” is louder and more profound than “Marg bar Amreeka!”.
Yes C.H. Everything is fine in Afghanistan. That is why the United states is sending only 30,000 more troops and not the 80,000 McChrystal wanted. Because everything is fine.
“I’m in agreement with you guys that an attack from either (America or Khamnei) side is very unlikely, especially when “Marg bar dictator!” is louder and more profound than “Marg bar Amreeka!”.”
Whatever. If dreaming about a failed color revolution keeps the US from doing anything stupid, then fine by me.
Also, hear anything about the quite substantial anti-NATO protests in Kabul? No?
@Lysander: you might want to take a look at CH’s website and notice the proeminent:
“SUPPORT OUR TROOPS AND THEIR MISSION IN IRAQ”
I think that this says it all and makes any futher attempts to reason with this guy pointless, at least for me.
On a related topic, I am thinking about writing a “compare and contrast” piece about the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the current US one. Can’t promise I will do that soon (lack of time), but I will try. I think you might enjoy it.
Cheers!
VS
Lysander, I thought I would write a little on the “Balyoz/Sledgehammer” operation.
First, a blogger, Hevallo, also made a post about this:
http://hevallo.blogspot.com/2010/01/turkish-army-planned-coup-blaming-pkk.html
This is not the first plan that has surfaced or that has been leaked to the media. This goes back to what I briefly tried to touch upon during the interview: The US is providing assistance to the current administration to shave off some of the “rouge” elements that belonged to a very powerful division (composed or active duty and retired military personnel as well as bureaucrats and civilians) started by the US itself. For a detailed background, I would recommend reading the book by Ganser “Nato’s Secret Armies”.
The goal is not to eliminate this division (Turkish name translates to Special War Division) which is part of the deep state but to shave off some of the elements and bring it under control.
You also have to keep in mind that Today’s Zaman belongs to the Gulen movement. Actually the Gulen movement owns a lot of media resources now.
Another interesting part of the plan was that Turkey should be responding to Kurdish civilians the way Israel responds to Palestinians. This was spelled out just like that. You have to remember that these plans are often recycled/updated. Turkish forces has indeed been taking Israeli approach toward Palestinians for a LONG time now. What do you call attacking a city with cannons from the military garrison, really? Youtube is full of videos.
Now some brief analysis. If you look at the news it’s ALWAYS emphasized that these coup plans etc are product of a small group in the military and the great and honorable Turkish military is not the one to blame or bring under suspicion, despite the fact that the military always protects its thugs and defends them publicly. This is because the military has largely been successful in making sure that the current administration (and Gulen movement in general) do not form an alliance with Kurds and end military’s rule. The military accomplished this by cutting a deal with the current government and they both formed an alliance against Kurds. Arresting 1,000 civilian Kurds who were active in politics during the last year is an action out of alliance between the Gulen movement and the military. These imprisioned people have never touched a gun and always took place unarmed struggle.
I will try to provide you with more, soon. I think Mizgin is working on a piece on this or something related… If you have any specific questions, please pose here or you can email me. Saker has my email.
Zerkes
VS: I have a question. The Saudi’s bombed a few places inside Yemen and killed a lot of civilians (mostly women and children). They did that after some Saudi soldiers which were kidnapped(?) were found dead. I am not familiar with the relationship between two countries… Can you or someone educate me on this?
Thanks in advance!
Zerkes
@Zerkes, first thanks a lot for your explanations and comments to Lysander’s question!
About Yemen: I posted a very good piece by Rick Rozoff recently. Check it out here:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2009/12/yemen-pentagons-war-on-arabian.html
Another good article is this one:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16871
I apologize for not offering any personal comments, but the authors of these articles know far more about this topic that I and I could really not add anything valuable. My knowledge of Saudi and Yemeni politics is very superficial, at best. I much rather direct you to those who know what they are talking about :-)
Kind regards and many thanks again for your comments!
The Saker
As always Zerkes, very good info.
What I’m trying to discern is, is the recent changes in Turkish policy a real development or is the the difference between the AKP and the militarists akin to that between Kadima and Likud in Israel, ie no difference at all.
Of course, Saker and I would love it to be the former, but facts are facts.
Overall, I do think Turkish interests have changed over the past decade. Close alliance with the US and Israel do not seem to be as essential as they once were and good relations with Russia, Iran and Syria seem to be a serious foreign policy objective.
You also said once before that Israel is useful to Turkey to counter-balance the Arabs and non-Turks. This is probably true, but now I’m thinking the Turks believe that if Iran is taken out of the equation, there will be no one to counter balance Israel!
The situation with the Kurds is something I sadly know little about. But Turkey’s future depends on an equitable settlement based on fairness and the principle of equality. I wish the Kurds well in that pursuit, using whatever means are at hand.
Some separate questions if you have time.
Is it true that Turkish leftists “disappear” from time to time?
Do Kurds serve in the Turkish Army?
Can you tell us anything about the Kurdish situation in Ottoman times? Better than now or worse?
Thanks. If you are too busy to answer, of course we understand.
VS, Thanks for the info. I will read them.
Lysander, I will try to answer your questions quickly. I will try to read some on Liqud and Kadima and get back with you so I don’t make a mistake in answering that question.
@Lysander: Is it true that Turkish leftists “disappear” from time to time?
Define “disappear”. Do you mean kidnapped and killed? I am not aware of many instances where this happened. Some fractions closely collaborate with the PKK and I wouldn’t be surprised they get targeted as well. Having said that, the classical Turkish Leftists have been often lead by people who actually were working for the Turkish Intelligence. Back in 70ies some good leaders of Turkish left were of course hung. Quite a few of them were killed in 198ies too. There hasn’t been much of Turkish Leftists left since mid 80ies really.
@Lysander: Do Kurds serve in the Turkish Army?
Yes, every male who is Turkish citizen has to serve in the military. The Kurdish soldiers are sent to the front lines to combat against PKK. Old age pitting Kurds against Kurds strategy. Here is some statistics for you (on the death toll of soldiers per city):
http://zarokenroj.blogspot.com/2009/09/kurdish-cities-sustain-highest-loss.html
In recent years, there also have been a lot of “accidental” death of soldiers who are Kurds. For whatever reason they seem to be accidentally getting shot and not anyone else.
@Lysander: Can you tell us anything about the Kurdish situation in Ottoman times? Better than now or worse?
I would say the time of Ottomans were better than the republic and the kemalism because Ottomans never denied existence of Kurds or Kurdish culture. They mostly left them alone and what’s more, one of the Sultan’s actually pressed a coin for Kurdistan. There were still problems and friction but nothing like at the time of Turkish Nation State.
On another note, I read a little more on the Balyoz and it was giving an example about how the Turkish state got rid of Greeks from one of the Islands. Take an open air prison, encourage the detainees disturb the public, do a few more things, and people will move.
Zerkes
Scroll down to the end of this blatantly pro-israel article from ‘The Economist” to read of the outcomes of two recent war-gaming exercises that simulated an attack on Iran:
The Gathering Storm
Two war games run recently by academics add to the despondency. In one, played out at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, America was ready to live with a nuclear Iran through containment and nuclear deterrence, and exerted strong pressure on Israel not to take military action. In another war game, held at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies and designed to explore diplomatic options, Iran continued to build up its stock of enriched uranium—even after a simulated Israeli commando raid on one facility under construction.
All this suggests that Israel is drawing up military options to attack Iran, but none of them is very appealing. This may explain Israel’s enthusiasm for sanctions. The emergence of an Iranian protest movement raises hopes that the regime could be restrained, perhaps even toppled, by stoking internal pressure.
America is rethinking the wisdom of targeting Iran’s most obvious vulnerability: its dependence, because of inefficient refining capacity, on imports of petrol and other fuels. Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, now says America will seek to impose penalties on the increasingly powerful Revolutionary Guard, “without contributing to the suffering of the ordinary [Iranians], who deserve better than what they currently are receiving.”
Mr Netanyahu’s lieutenants seem inclined the other way. They say ordinary Iranians will blame their government, not the outside world, for any sanctions; so the embargo should be as crushing as possible. Domestic instability should be encouraged. Only a direct threat to the survival of the regime, they believe, will make it think again about seeking nuclear weapons. It is a harsh view, but for Israel the alternatives are even worse.
@AA: thanks. good thing the wargamers are coming to the conclusion that attacking Iran will not achieve anything. But that is counting without the usual idiocy of the Israelis and the Israel Lobby who are unable to think strategically (they are only good at tactics, but at the latter they are very good indeed).
Here is an AP news article that hints at the possibility that war looms:
Israeli Minister Warns of New War With Hezbollah
By AFP
January 23, 2010 “AFP” — JERUSALEM — Israel is heading toward a new war with Lebanon’s Shiite movement Hezbollah, a cabinet minister warned Saturday in remarks carried by military radio and the popular Ynet news website.
“We are heading toward a new confrontation in the north but I don’t know when it will happen, just as we did not know when the second Lebanon war would erupt,” said Yossi Peled, a minister without portfolio and a reserve army general.