Another video from the series “5 Minutes of Common Sense” by the Russian political analyst Ruslan Ostashko. In this video, Ruslan is talking about the recent launch of a new ballistic missile by Pyongyang and the reaction of the United States to this event. Translated and subtitled by Eugenia
Saker Message:
This is a good highlight of USA capability in battling in the real politic where you made a point to convince your adversary that the issue is mutual and made necessary concession in turn to facilitate any deal written in ink.
holy shit!
That´s where hubris, arrogance or overdrunkard pride can lead the indispensable empire: a virtual corner.
North Korea has made its point, and has thoroughly embarrassed the USA.
I do not understand why North Korea continues to make its point over and over again.
Is China asking North Korea to do so in order to show Asia that China is the only superpower that matters in the region and that they must comes to terms with the new boss?
The DPRK does not take orders from China. The “point” they are making is that they can defend themselves, and that they have the capacity to strike the US mainland with nuclear weapons. That is a very powerful deterrent against any ill-conceived ideas of invading North Korea, and THAT is the point, or rather the message.
They already had a good enough conventional deterrent. Far more likely – as F. William Engdahl wrote: https://journal-neo.org/2016/11/01/north-korea-is-an-pentagon-vassal-state/ – it is the AngloZionist Empire which is asking North Korea (i.e. the Kim Jong Un regime) to do so. Kim Jong Un probably made a deal with them.
As an engineer, these tests seem to make some sort of sense.
For instance, in this case, it appears that the North Korean leadership had decided that they needed a longer range missile that could reach the USA. In response, the engineers came up with either a new missile or a modification to a previous missile that would have the range and payload capacity desired. Or at least a step in that direction.
At some point in such a design process, there is no substitute for a real-world test to see what you’ve come up with and how it actually performs.
What I do not see is the North Koreans seeming to shoot off the same missiles over and over again to make a political point.
The two can go together. The engineers could be telling Kim Um that they would like to do another test, and Kim Um might decide that this is a good day to show the USA what’s what, and thus approves the test.
But, these tests do not seem like meaningless technical exercises like for instance shooting the same missile off over and over again. Thus, the reasoning behind the tests might well be at least in some part technical. Commentators here and elsewhere all seem to assume that there can only be a political message behind the tests, while ignoring that it might just be that there are technical reasons for doing such tests.
Could it be that the North Koreans are testing guidance and control systems plus a RELIABLE heat shield?
One “point” they still have to make is a truly viable system. In spite of all the noise, many of these tests have been technically questionable. Lost in all of the commentary, is the reality of making a reliable military system. I suspect they are a long way from really having that. From their point of view, I’m sure they feel a great sense of urgency. The US only attacks countries that can’t defend themselves.
“I do not understand why North Korea continues to make its point over and over again.”
Actually, it’s a very astute approach on the part of the DPRK. They know that each launch will be broadcast far and wide by the Western MSM, essentially doing Pyongyang’s PR job, albeit with the opposite aims. It serves to getting Western slobs used to the fact that they can indeed be reached by inferior nations, peoples, and “regimes” they thought were incapable of resistance.
I’m guessing Russian- and Chinese-made aircraft carrier sinking missiles are in position alongside
North Korean troops thoroughly trained to use them. President Putin and President Xi on Skype
doing rock-paper-scissors to decides whose missiles gets first shot at the Americans.
Short is the life of an US Navy sailor in the age of Zircon. And no, there won’t be a McDonald’s waiting for them in heaven. Though break!
This is a major turning point. Will Russia and China reverse their positions on UN sanctions now that they have proved useless?
It is obvious that North Korea can offer the world all sorts of products and technologies if they are allowed to trade. Do Russia and China see North Korea as a threat or a valued economic partner?
the only sensible move russia and china can make is to bring their airdefenses into north korea and create a no fly zone.
that will prevent te most preferred way of waging war against weaker nations by usa and vassals.
groundgame is almost impossible
sea game is 50/50 but not useful
that leaves the nuclear option but killing russian and chinese troops manning airdefenses is not the smartest of ideas
this will force a freeze of the conflict at worst or negotiations at best
Until now I had never heard of Ruslan Ostashko, and in 5 minutes he has said more sensible things than about all I heard or read in the western MSM.
May I add one subtle note? The USA has had a slight chance to save face. For years there was a compromise at the table, by Russia and China, to stop nuclear development by the DPRK but also stopping the yearly massive exercises by US and SK forces, imitating an invasion of DPRK.
Done deal, I would say, but the USA has always categorically refused that.
And that `double freeze` is now off the table, according to a spokesman of a Russian delegation in the DPRK. Their nuclear capabilities are now non-negotiable.
Ostashko asked whether the US State Department was in complete panic or in total disorder.
The last one definitely, the first most prabably too. Let´s hope cool heads prevail.
Thank you! I had the same thought while listening to this guy. Thanks to whoever Eugenia is for providing captions. I was tempted to go looking for more from this guy, but then realized that it would likely be in Russia and that helpful Eugenia would not have made it understandable to me.
What strikes me over and over again is that Trump has deliberately created this situation. When Trump took over, there was a natuaral pause almost everywhere as the world waited to see how he’d be different from Obama. Trump could have used that to de-escalate a bit on the Korean penisular. Instead, Trump being Trump went into insult mode and has been trying to out-insult Kim like two 10 year old boys in a schoolyard. The worst part being that Trump could not see what almost everyone knew which was that there was no easy and certainly no military solution to the problem. So, Trump started trading insults thinking apparently for some bizarre reason that this would solve the problem, and as such he’s talked himself into such a corner where now he does look like a fool and his credibility has now been put at stake on a crisis which has no easy solutions.
I’m still glad the crooked Clintons aren’t in the White House. What a sorry system where these were the two fake choices given to voters. That alone says we need a change.
This guy is spouting off a lot of wishful thinking for the hate America and hate Trump crowd.
Were it not for the deep hatred for Trump, which is the sole unifying force among Democrats and deep-state Republicans, Trump would have squashed this odious insect called Kim Jung-Un along with DPRK’s missile-launching and nuclear weapons capabilities.
North Korea is no more capable of defending itself from USA’s arsenal of stand-off long-range weapons than Syria or Lebanon is.
This weekend, US Senator Lindsey Graham -a long time opponent of Trump- called for the evacuation of US civilians from Seoul. If the Trump administration gives the order to do this, then the clock to doomsday for the Kim cult if North Korea will begin ticking.
Neither China nor Russia will go to war with the United States over an air assault on Kim’s missiles and nuclear warheads. And if North Korea attacks South Korea in retaliation for these attacks, China is off the hook. Its commitment to DPRK is triggered only if North Korea is the one being invaded, not the other way around.
The South Korean military is ready and waiting for the chance to destroy the North Korean military, the initial costs in life and property to their own country notwithstanding. There very likely may be a significant number of South Koreans “who would rather be red than dead”. That’s only natural. But, based upon the political divide among members of South Korea’s legislature, a majority of South Koreans would support a war if it meant an end to the North Korean threat.
Domestic politics -with a big assist from the major mass media- is the critical restraint on the USA from effectively eliminating the long-range attack and the nuclear weapons capabilities of North Korea. Trump has shown himself to resolute in the face of public disapproval. But he will need a majority in the Senate to gain authorization for a pre-emptive attack on North Korea; or he will need a “Gulf of Tonkin” moment to justify a retaliatory attack on North Korea.
North Korea’s Kim Jung-un is building a missile program on very thin ice.
Some time ago the Saker (if I remember it correctly) did his analisys on the cost of a war against the DPKR.
Costs that will be bear in full between Japan and South Korea regarding loss of civilian lives (probably in the millions) Properties, Destruction of Infrastructures, etc.
The USA wouldn’t loss that much than a pair of Carriers and the ussual CannonFodder they have in their Military, easyly replaced in the short term.
But the loss of Face for the USA regarding these Allies (Japan and South Korea) that Americans wouldn’t be able to protect, will be determinant. Maybe this is the price that Japan and South Korea are willing to pay in order to get rid of… the USA, off course.
I remember reading Saker’s assessment of the human cost of war to the people of South Korea. I believe that he has exaggerated that human cost by a factor of 3 to 1, perhaps more. That is not to say that the costs would not be significant, of course.
At the maximum range of most of North Korean artillery, just the northern third of Seoul’s metropolitan area would be subject to bombardment. Using maximum charges to fire shells at maximum distance would rapidly degrade both the accuracy and the rate of fire for the North Korean artillery. In addition, the US possesses incredible technology, which can rapidly identify the firing positions of North Korea’s artillery. It would be just a matter of time -a week at most- before the artillery threat would be eliminated.
What’s more problematic would be the series of near suicidal attacks launched by North Korea’s infantry, once its artillery and tanks had punched gaps in South Korea’s defenses along the DMZ and an unknown number of tunnels were used to get troops behind South Korea’s front lines. These penetrations will need to be halted and isolated before they can be destroyed. The tactics and objectives of this ground invasion are unpredictable. So, it could take more than a month before all of these penetrations would be eliminated.
North Korea is not a “near peer” to the United States, in the way that China and Russia are described. Its arsenal of Shore-to-ship missiles, plus its ability to re-direct those missiles in-flight are limited at best. Given the law of large numbers, there is a high probability that at least a few ships will be hit by such missiles. But they are not going to have an effect any greater than Japan’s kamikaze attacks at the end of WW II, and probably not nearly as much.
During this process, US marines could attack and seize Wonsan, plus other important locations along North Korea’s east coast; but these objectives would have more political,value than strategic value to determine the outcome of the war.
I am amazed that this visceral hatred of America as the “Evil Empire” has brought so many who comment on this website to the belief that North Korea can do any more than bluff and bluster, with the hope that American media can achieve the same kind of victory for it that they was able to achieve for North Vietnam.
At the present time, North Korea cannot launch a nuclear-armed missile and effectively direct it to its intended target. But it is just a matter of time -unless China has provided it with these capabilities already- before it can do so. This makes it imperative for America to act sooner rather than later.
What amazes me is that people like you are wondering why is America of today so hated all around the world. Where should we start? It is an evil empire in every sense of that definition, period.
And as for US marines seizing any territory in NK, only in Hollywood produced movies. Never going to happen.
North Koreans are raised to hate everything US presents and rightfully so considering what Americans did to NK in 1950s. And now they are threatening to do it all over again. If I am not wrong, NK has an army of 6 million people under arms (regular army and reserve) ready to fight against evil empire. I wish them all the best if it comes to that. Hopefully common sense in the headquarter of evil empire will prevail. If there is any left.
So many times I hear the leaders of my country talk and they sound like the ultimate evil James Bond super villan that threatens to destroy the world.
And, then when I think they are just blowhards, I travel and I meet other Americans on buisness travel, and they are evil beyond all evil talking about nuking other countries and turning other countries into glass. They don’t seem to realize that they are talking about the most horrific war crimes in the history of human civilization and that what they are talking about would bring death and horror to billions of other human beings.
The only good thing is that if you believe in heaven and hell, then when my heart finally gives out this old hippie who’s worked for peace and helping people and against nukes is likely to be going the other direction from these people who want to cast billions of people into death and horror. Thus the amount of time that I still have to listen and be around such nonsense is at least limited if still unknown.
I think it is your comment which is based on wishful thinking. China has already made it well known it will not tolerate any regime change in North Korea, nor any initial attack against the country. What was the US hoping to achieve by sending its Navy to the North Korean coast ? Regime change, so that the US military could end up on North Korean borders with China and Russia, where it would install missiles ? And both China and Russia would tolerate this ? Hardly.
Interesting thoughts. I may have some sidelines.
I guess it was meant `better dead than red`, maybe a slip of the keyboard. However, why is only NK a threat? The DPRK is just as much a threat as SK is to them. There has been no peace treaty since the Korean war.
Bombing the DPRK facilities might not be that easy. They have learned from the Korean war in the fifties, where they about 30% of the civilian population was killed and at a certain moment there was literally nothing left to bomb. All important facilities are deep underground. How sure can we be that a succesful `surgical strike` without consequences is possible? Is it worth the risk?
I`m not so sure that China will keep out. China will never accept American soldiers directly at its borders.
Finally, how sure can we be that there are no nuclear weapons in SK?
I was triggered on this seeing again the iconic 2007 Munich speech by Putin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ58Yv6kP44
At 14:40 he mentiones nations that have acquired nuclear weapons as well, and mentiones ‘The Democratic People`s Republic of Korea` AND `The Republic of Korea`. It may be a translation error (can`t tell, I don`t speak Russian), but I don`t believe Putin would make such a mistake. Food for thought?
Cheers, Rob
Thank you, Rob.
No, I meant “better red than dead”.
During the Cold War there were a number of organizations that advocated for “peace at any price”, more so in Europe than in America. “Better Red Than Dead” was a popular slogan used to describe their positions.
Since the days of Kim Dae Jung, who succeeded the military dictator Park Chung Hee as leader of South Korea, there has been a significant element within ROK that wanted to pretend that North Korea had no intentions to conquer South Korea; that peaceful coexistence was all they wanted. Although this mindset has never been held by a clear majority of the South Korean people. It has been evident in their politics ever since.
Recall that it was over dinner and dessert at Mar-a-Lago (Remember that “delicious chocolate cake?) enjoyed by Donald Trump, Xi Jing-Pin, and their wives. The US navy launched 60 cruise missiles at a hapless Syrian airbase. At the time, several pundits pointed out that the timing and the company was not a coincidence. It was meant more as a warning to North Korea and a demonstration to China. It was also am excellent live-fire exercise for the US to test this capability.
The US navy, even without aircraft carriers, possesses enough assets to sustain a missile attack several times greater and over a prolonged period of time. Add to this B-52 and B-1 bombers also firing from a safe distance, and the volume and intensity of the attack could be sustained for as long as necessary.
During the disgraceful bombing campaign against Serbia, the United States Air Force dropped 2 bombs in rapid succession into that same hole in the ground. During the sequence the bombs broke through 3 layers of hardened defenses to eventually penetrate and to destroy a Chinese electronic monitoring command post in Belgrade. That was 1998. Imagine what can be done now.
By resorting to stand-off weapons only and avoiding a ground invasion altogether, the US would not be threatening regime change.
Amazing what watching a few hollywood films can do to one’s ability to think rationally…
@ Arthur G Brina
There’s no doubting that the US and its allies in the region (Japan and S. Korea) are superior to the North in every aspect which is why they feel the need to demonstrate such strength, be that in the UN, media and militarily. I agree with your assessment regarding the Saker’s earlier assessment but my main concern is what consequences any war on the peninsula will have economically seeing as it would clearly involve most of the leading economical powers: the US, S. Korea, Japan, China & Russia.
Can you expand on your comments regarding the bombing campaign against Serbia as I am well read on that shameful episode of US aggression and the example given to me is new. It is well known that NATO had complete air superiority which allowed them to hit multiple targets with ease but I strongly think your sources are wrong because if they believe the Chinese were in anyway militarily aiding the Serbians then this is fanciful. The only spying possible was via the Chinese embassy which is why it was bombed. Oh sorry the reason was NATO used older maps which showed a military instillation present in that location. Yeah right!
Somehow I feel comparing that bombing campaign, which NATO had predicted to last only a few days. to war with the North is naive and scary as studies have shown despite air superiority NATO only won that conflict through politically means and sadly I don’t see how Trump nor his neocons can achieve this in Korea without serious repercussions, economically and thinking China and Russia will sit passively as the US gets involved is make believe.
Mad Serbian
The campaign to “bomb Serbia into the stone age” was incredibly wrong. Fortunately, the Serbs were adroit enough at camouflage and anti-aircraft tactics that NATO pilots felt compelled -for their own safety!- to fly at extremely high altitudes.
I used the CIA/China embassy incident only to provide an example of how even hardened targets in North Korea could be engaged by the US without resorting to MOABs or nuclear weapons.
The CIA detected signals activity deep inside the Chinese embassy. There was no way that NATO would knowingly attack this site. It was quite clever of the CIA to misidentify the embassy by using an out-dated map. But NATO was obviously made aware that a special tactic was needed to take out that target. A total of 3 bombs were dropped by 3 NATO aircraft. The first opened a crater into the building’s interior. The second deepened the crater busting through some lower levels. The third penetrated the last barrier and destroyed the facility.
According to the Chinese, this facility was a news bureau. A news bureau? 3 levels down beneath the Chinese embassy? Not hardly! This does not indicate that the Chinese were providing the Serbs with any assistance. (It didn’t seem that they needed any.) But the US military may have felt that the Chinese were gathering intelligence on the F-117 “Stealth Fighter”, which was surprisingly (to the Americans at least) shot down just prior to the attack on the embassy.
President Clinton went to such extraordinary lengths to express his regrets that I believe that he even went so far as to travel to China himself.
@ Arthur G Brina
Thanks for clarifying which incident you meant, however you have the dates mixed up because the Chinese Embassy bombing happened on May 7th 1999 and NATO lost the F-117A on the 27th of March 1999 – 3rd night of the bombing campaign. The F-16 was lost in early May so you might’ve meant that plane? Either way I’d neglect reading too much into what CIA/MSM sources have to say regarding that and similar incidents during that war crime.
We all remember Wesley Clark’s post bombing assessments of destroying most of the Serbian Army’s forces in Kosovo (what happened to him after this victory) but what is certain is that NATO or the US for that matter easily bombed/destroyed a majority of static military installations and resorted to as you put it “bomb Serbia into the Stoneage”, which they will most certainly do the the North if/when war breaks out there. The only difference being that the North will ensure retaliation unlike Milosevic who failed to bomb NATO forces in Bosnia, Macedonia or Albania in fear of breaking international law.
Thanks
I’d vote for Better Red than Dead. Sounds like at the least I’m doing what the Dems always told me to do which is to vote for the Lessor of Two Evils.
I also tend to vote to put People over Profits. So, yeah, I feel horribly out of place in this America sometimes. But I’m pretty sure that when Jesus took a bullwhip to the profiteers inhabiting the Temple that this is what he was trying to teach us.
again that ridiculous launch of 60 cruises into the syrian base, all meant to save trumpy´s macho manship face altogether? C´mon!
“Were it not for the deep hatred for Trump, /…/ Trump would have squashed this odious insect called Kim Jung-Un along with DPRK’s missile-launching and nuclear weapons capabilities.”
Sounds interesting. I mean, isn’t an overwhelming act of force and violence exactly how a Pindo President should improve his reputation, at least in the eyes of his Exceptional and Indispensable compatriots (and, most notably, yourself) ?
Conclusion: No, it’s not a matter of public relations, but of putrid imperialist cowardice whenever there is retaliation in the air (literally speaking, at that). You should ask yourself why no Pindo President has dared to squash the “odious insects” in Pyongyang for more than half a century.
And, as I never grow tired of pontificating: The DPRK:s popularity and prestige would be soaring instantly if it were to wreak havoc on mainland US. The 911 fireworks are a most credible precedent (regardless of who the perpetrators were). Don’t let the Ziomedia convince you otherwise.
problem is the rest of the world is not so sure about the braveness and mental sanity of the indispensables, sir.
At the end of the day the war in Syria has left the USA with a base there. Same as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now Syria. Balkans ditto.
Wake up World.
The video says it all. I have my doubts if the US really knew what it was doing when it sent its fleet to the North Korean coast. What were they hoping to achieve ? Surrender ? Regime change ? The fleet is still there, and the US dare not withdraw it without losing face. On the other hand, that fleet cannot stay there for ever. Trump and Washington better accept reality and sit down and talk with North Korea. The world is sick of Americas wars, fought under phony excuses.
The combination of three carrier groups was always temporary. The USN manipulated their traffic of ships going out and ships going home to create it.
As of now, 2 of the 3 CVNs have continued on to their other duties. One was last seen in Pearl Harbor, the other is now in the Arabian Sea headed towards the Middle East. Thus, after this temporary gathering of power at North Korea, the USN has gone back to a more normal deployment of one CVN in Japan, one CVN in the middle east, with the third apparently rotating back home.
Americans are sick of America’s wars fought under phony excuses.
The last two Presidents both won the office by declaring that they would change this. Obama ran as the candidate of Change and Hope, and explicitedly projected himself (on thin evidence) as ‘the antiwar candidate’. Trump ran talking about ending America’s regime change wars, that NATO was an unfair rip-off, and a general platform of America First which suggested not fighting wars as the worlds policeman.
Even Dubya did not run on war. He ran on a platform of ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ and criticing the Clintons for “nation building”.
Hillary tried to run on a pro-war platform, promising almost instant war in Syria and certainly hinting a wars with Russia and China during her time in office. And she lost.
America’s are sick of America’s wars fought on phony excuses. Just nobody listens to us.
To make things change you have to ACT not talk.Do that and you will see change,that is,if its not too much effort for you.
Did Ruslan Ostashko bring into consideration Putins statement that USA “provokes” North Korea?
With that one consideration the whole above analysis becomes kinda irrelevant.
Why cool Russians do not consider this that with same logic as defence against Iranian Missiles USA brings missile defence systems to eastern Europe (which can easily be converted to offensive systems sic Putin),
USA is amassing all kinds of weaponry to South Korea which may be closer than or at least same as amassing weapons in Ukraine! And because NK and SK are so close Russia the relevant question is why Russia is not reacting to weapons collection on her eastern borders like she reacts to western borders! Anybody? If you consider this to be in fact the real cause of all the theatrics between NK and USA for a moment, USA seems to e at the top of their game!
For me there could be following reasons to explain Russian “Game”:
1. Russia has such cool weapons that even if USA amasses its army at Russia gates(especially eastern) they can still turn USA to smithereens.
2. Russia wants, as well to keep this cat and mouse game alive between USA and North Korea to enjoy the live theater with all the geo political benefits of sometimes playing as intermediary sometime beneficiary.
3. Russia does want USA to get involved in another war while playing good guy by giving statements that “O watch out too many people will die”.
As for the weapons sales like S400 to Saudi Arabia. This should come with extra detail as such strategic weapons should never e sold to such evil countries which were responsible so much trouble for you in past and should not be sold to whoever is willing to pay for them.
“Russia the relevant question is why Russia is not reacting to weapons collection on her eastern borders like she reacts to western borders! Anybody?”
Of course it derives from two reasons: the moscow and majority of russian population living in the West and to Ukraine´s culture being a Russian one.
And if I were Putin I would convince Xi of one decisive step: if and when the US or SK forces ever reach or make a regime change in Pyongyang… china invades and occupies all the northern part of NK. Jong Un gets also warned in advance on this move. Beijing Invades it to stay at least until a different solution is found out and safeguarded.
It´s clear like fountain water: no enemy state can be tolerated in those borders nowadaysand because it´s just a fore advice: in less than 20 yrs no one could possibly even think of facing chinese military power.
Ruslan’s comments are sound — but for his understanding of the US legacy media and consequent public opinion. American printed media is a financial shadow of its former self. Newspapers heavily relied on printed advertisements by individuals buying and selling houses, offering jobs and local businesses selling services and products. Growth of internet has dried up this stream of income. Older foreign affairs reporters now supplement their income — under the table — with subsidies awarded by the US DEEP STATE pursuing a covert foreign policy agenda. (American television and radio relied on headlines from printed media, and continue to do so.)
Candidate Trump ran on a largely domestic / economic platform of repatriating outsourced jobs and job growth through lower taxes, more rational regulations. President Trump has been working effectively to realize these goals and is gathering the applause of his constituency.
Candidate Trump’s relatively minor foreign policy platform involved 1. Withdrawal from Middle Eastern conflicts, once the US destroyed ISIS & Daesh; 2. Renegotiating foreign trade agreements with Mexico, China, India etc.; 3. Developing a working diplomatic relationship with Russia and China.
1. Of course, Candidate Trump knew perfectly well that ISIS and Daesh were proxies funded by Saudi Arabia – the Gulf States – US Deep State. Folding Syrian Jihad was largely a matter of reducing funds. To the extend that President Trump controls funding, he has done so in Syria, with Russia and Syria smashing the terrorists physically. Everywhere but in the US, the defeat of ISIS & Daesh proxies in Syria is seen as a defeat of America. But such defeat is not discussed in the US media (controlled by the US Deep State). American voters have never known about the proxy war, and have no understanding of the matter, other than “Peace is returning to Syria.”
2. President Trump immediately withdrew from a draft Trans Pacific Trade Agreement and began renegotiating foreign trade agreements, with NAFTA and China. Apart from the distress of major economic interests involved in foreign trade, the President enjoys much support by voters in the US.
3. The US Deep State fabricated a mythical monster called “RUSSIA” to justify a defense budget 20 times that spent by the nation led by Vladimir Putin (of $60 Billion). President Trump is aware that Deep State killed President Kennedy, for establishing a working relationship with the USSR, and has threatened any White House occupant wishing to reduce the US defense budget. So Trump has raised US defense spending another $60 Billion, while seeking brief meetings with Vladimir Putin at the periphery of economic conferences. Increased spending seems to have extended his life, while the two leaders seem to be very relaxed in each other’s company. So this promise of Candidate Trump has been kept by President Trump.
Good analysis from Ruslan, thank you.
To add insult to injury a major military maneuvers Vigilant Ace starting today. Is this the plan B? If so it still looks like plan A.
“At least 230 warplanes from both the US and the South will take part, alongside 12,000 US troops and airmen and at least 4,000 expected to represent Seoul.”
“The drill lasts from today until December 8 with aircraft flying over eight airbases in across the Korean Peninsula.”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/664240/North-Korea-War-US-Kim-Jong-un-Donald-Trump-Bombers-Fighters-F-22-F-35-Vigilant-Ace-Nuke
And as Mr.Lavrov has pointed out, not long ago the US was saying that there would be no more exercises in the Korean winter. Thus, this most recent exercise has been hastily and deliberately put together.
One of the problems the US has is that its spends millions and millions of dollars on ‘sending messages’. The MOAB in Afghanistan cost something like $20 million. The cruise missile strike on Syria was something like 60 million dollar cruise missiles. I don’t even want to know what it costs per hour to fly a B-2 or B-52 to North Korea. Something like an F-16 fighter costs about $20,000 per hour per plane to fly around.
After spending millions here and millions there on just sending messages (email is free), then they wonder how the Russians got some new weapons for their few millions. Which of course just means that at some point the US will spend many more millions sending a message to the Russians.
“After spending millions here and millions there on just sending messages (email is free)”
I appreciate good jokes :)
Email is indeed free. But a TV-picture burned into the plebs’ minds is invaluable & permanent (plus the emotional bonus hook on top)…
Cui bono? Just a rhetorical side-spit-question :)
Cheers.
Thanks to Eugenia for the English subtitles.
Good analysis, save for 1 point.
“There is no simple solution for the US”.
“The US has only 1 option left: ask China & Russia to increase pressure on the DPRK”.
I disagree. There is a very simple solution that can be implemented without further ado. China, Russia & NK itself have proposed the so-called double-freeze option as a 1st step towards negotiation 3 times, but each time the Empire has rejected it. Why? Because it wants to impose its will on NK without giving anything in return, and because the Empire does not want a solution, it wants war. If there would be a solution the Empire would have no reason to keep its forces & systems (notably THAAD) stationed in SK, which means it would lose part of its encirclement of China & Russia.
The cost of any war against the North is South Korea and maybe some of Japan.
The US will suffer catastrophic economic loss of the South Korean infrastructure, maybe 30-50%, and a 8-10 year period of recovery. Japan, too might take some hits from such a war. These economic loses will cripple the global dominance by the West.
China, depending on who starts the war, will lose manpower if it intervenes.
However, the Dalian region is heavy in South Korean and Japanese industry, and it may be adversely affected by devastation on the Peninsula. Russia will escape damage.
The US will have ignited a disaster with long-after-war effects.
And it will permanently lose the Peninsula, North and South, which will fold into Eurasia and join the China-Russia complex.
The US only gets removal of the “threat” of North Korea.
One reason there has never been a peace treaty settlement and will never be a settlement using diplomacy is the US will not equate with the regime of Communism.
There can never be an equal to the Hegemon on the other side of the table. They saw what happened in Paris with the North Vietnamese. And of late with the Iranians.
The US does not do diplomacy well. Trump and the Military won’t do it.
However, that leaves Russia and China to work out the whole dilemma. They can do the assurances and guarantees and exchange for denuclearization. The US does not have to be a direct party. South Korea will demand the US leave the Peninsula. That is the key.
By forcing the issue, the US arms the South with the leverage to force the Hegemon to withdraw. It is inevitable. The closest it can remain is Okinawa, some Japanese bases and Guam. That is the end game.
The Hegemon lost this in 1953. Slow to realize the Korean Peninsula would “organ reject” any foreign force upon it, the US is now feeling the limp power it possesses.
The Regime Change the Hegemon seeks is of the South as well as the North. But Koreans are not Germans. They will never submit to perpetual vassalage. And China and Russia will not allow that either. President Moon is aligned with Putin and Xi, not Trump and Abe.
Korea is in the Eurasian World. The US renaming the zone as part of Indo-Pacific is an exercise in futility.
After the military hijinks is ended, the US will stand frustrated and embarrassed that all those planes, bombers, missiles, ships and subs mean nothing to both North and South. It is their Peninsula. It will never grant a land title transfer to the Pentagon. The sun is setting on the Empire.
SK forcing the US out? probably perhaps in two decades as political and economic conditions change in Asia . And change they will around the pole of Beijing. However, I agree that at that time SK politics gets more prone to agreements with KN than with the US.
This comment makes tons of sense while all the hyperventilating about “How Should We Hit Fat Boy Before He Hits US??” by Alex Jones types of low IQ “antiglobalists’ just sells vitamins to fear driven dummies.
Give up Empire! Remember??? Duh!!
One more reason why the Hegemon needs help.
Missile defense systems don’t defend very well.
Here’s detailed report on the fail in Saudi Arabia:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html?smid=tw-share
So the Hegemon has 36 cruise missiles that go missing in Syrian attack, only 23 hitting the airport, many not very effective. And now the Patriot missile defense system failing against a 40-year old SCUD missile type fired by Houthis.
So how does Trump remove his aircraft carriers without losing face? He could remove one or all of them I suppose on the pretext that they need maintenance. Possibly the pentagon will invent some crisis somewhere else, and send the aircraft carriers there. Except then, the same problem will exist, just somewhere else. Which just demonstrates to the world that Trump is just a guy that points a gun at people and doesn’t intend to use it. Or, he could actually blow some stuff up maybe in Venezuela. Or he could just pick on some weak small country ala Grenada or Panama and flex some muscle to show the world he means business. Except it doesn’t change the NoKO situation. He’s gonna have to pull some sort of Viet Nam “withdrawal with honour” scenario. And that tactic of advising US citizens to leave South Korea is like racking the slide on your gun. It doesn’t actually scare anybody. If your gun is in your hand you should be shooting it. Otherwise, holster it.
Isn’t Kim Jong just an US-paid actor, set up to be the bad guy to motivate missile encirclement of China ?
For US paid actors, look no further than South Korea and Japan. The DPRK has what it takes to defeat Western Zio-gays.
But they are openly pro US, there needs to be a bad guy too.
Yes, this is the most likely explanation, in my view. He’s part of the Volksverdummung show … just like Trump.
No idea what the reanimation of the nuke hoax is all about. Probably just bad scripting patched over by lots of special effects.
It is not good to do either/or when there are yet more options: 1. peace coexistence mediated by Russia, China, So Korea and Japan 2.destructive war on N. Korea with concomitant seizure of all powers within the US and a firm intervention by the UN, Russia and China in an effort to back down the neocons –back, back into their lair.
If there are any either/or options in this horrendous situation, these are it. Sadly. I wish it were just about the hurt feelings of a bully, but I fear with good reason that bad “stuff” is afoot.
There is an easy answer to this – Canada grovels, as the 90 pound weakling in the room who *everybody* can push around, and the problem is solved diplomatically. Time honoured tradition when USSR and USA would clash over something and neither one could back down without looking weak.
https://globalnews.ca/news/3891745/north-korea-canada-matt-decourcey/
The groundwork for said solution is being prepared.
Maybe. I know after WW2 Canada was considered a country that was “fair and honest” and the big players would often use her as an arbitrator type because she was considered unbiased. Just about everyone in the UN was happy with such an arrangement. So, Canadian soft power does work. Trudeau is in China ostensibly on a trade mission but who knows what he’s really up to. US is saying they won’t protect Canada if Kim fires a rocket our way. I don’t see Kim backing down though.
Heard the story about the little train that could? Well, this is a story about a little plane that couldn’t.
F–22 Raptor Struggles During Korean Peninsula War Games
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201712041059692468-f-22-raptor-struggles-war-games/
“While it’s the US F-35 joint strike fighter that usually makes headlines for engine fires and other technical failures, this time it was a US F-22 Raptor that suffered an embarrassing performance failure during military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, according to reports from the scene.
An F-22 Raptor participating in the massive US and South Korean air force drills taking place from December 4 through 8 experienced a technical malfunction after landing and had to be towed off its runway to the hangar, Stars and Stripes reported Monday.
After landing at 8 a.m. local time at a base 170 miles from Seoul, the troubled Raptor couldn’t move from the middle of the runway, a South Korean official told Stars and Stripes.”
Chalk it up to that america special, exceptional, ueber alles superiority that brina & co. insist the rest of us inferior souls should worship.
Then again, it could be the work of those all knowing, ever present Russian hackers…
Lockheed Martin must be a Russian hacker, it made Uncle Sam it’s boi toi.
Most likely it rained…
“The aircraft’s radar-absorbing metallic skin is the principal cause of its maintenance troubles, with unexpected shortcomings — such as vulnerability to rain and other abrasion…”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/09/AR2009070903020.html
Yep, the F22 can’t fly when it’s raining.
Well, that natural and superior exceptional materials tech is confirmed once again. Shake in your boots, you NK commie heathens!
US F-35 Reportedly Starts to Crumble in Okinawa in ‘Routine Training Mission’
https://sputniknews.com/us/201712051059720600-us-stealth-fighter-training-flight-panel/
“The incident, which occurred east of Okinawa on November 30, was reported by Japanese media at the time, but it wasn’t until December 4 that US Air Force officials confirmed the report.
The loss of one of the plane’s panels, measuring approximately 12 inches (30 centimeters) by 24 inches (60 centimeters), was noticed by the F-35’s wingman as the aircraft was in the process of landing.
In November, US government officials said that the US Defense Department refused to accept the delivery of F-35s between September 21 and October 20 after finding “corrosion exceeding technical limits” around fasteners holding the planes’ exterior coatings to their airframes.”
Apparently that corrosion problem wasn’t completely fixed. This probably also accounts for the americans hiding the incident, from the american public, until Japanese exposure of it forced their hand.
For those people who are interested in understanding why the US military is completely unable to do anything right… ….bureaucracy rewards suck ups.
“For those wishing to learn more about the intellectual framework I call the Four Generations of Modern War, some useful resources are available. The first is “the canon,” a series of seven books which, if read in the given order, will take the reader from the First Generation into the Fourth (my colleague Major Greg Thiele, USMC, has an article on the canon in the June 2013 Marine Corps Gazette). The books are:”
https://www.traditionalright.com/4gw-resources/
Ok, just some thoughts that crossed my mind.
Could it be that this is just theatre to distract?
The DPRK is the perfect excuse for the USA to have a massive military present in SK, Japan. Just by coincidence in the neighbourhood of Russia and China. With THAAD, nukes and Raptors that are useful when not in hardcore maintenance (60 hours per hour operational), rain or sand.
Might the DPRK be the perfect excuse as well for China? Because with the USA as ‘protector’ of Japan, their military presence is the barrier for Japanese military build up.
Asia has experienced some unannounced visit of the Japanese army in the last century. That was quite different than in the Hollywood movies. I have visited China, and experienced the vicious hate they have against Japanese.
When digging in what the Japanese did in China in the last century, I can recommend to read what they did in Nanjing, and especially don’t forget to read about Unit 731. Dr. Mengele was a choir boy compared to that. No one ever was brought to court.
If there is anything that the Chinese don’t want, it’s the remilitarization of Japan.
So, the DPRK ‘threat’ is useful for the USA and China. Now, will anything happen?
Could it be that this is just a distraction? While all eyes are focused on Kim Jong Un, not much older than Mohammed bin Salman (the inverse Midas, being portraited as a ‘reformer’ in the western MSM, LOL), the preparations might in place for the real next target of the Hegemon, as instructed by the Masters.
Iran.
Just some 2 cents.
Cheers, Rob
To illustrate my point above:
In deep silence, the Saudi/Israeli/USA ‘alliance’ is gearing up in Iraq to combat Iranian forces: https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/12/05/us-new-moves-war-with-iran-may-be-much-closer-than-we-think.html
This area has witnessed a conflict before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War . 8 years, and up to a million casualties (not that the Masters care, btw).
This will not end well.
Cheers, Rob
it´s me or Ruslan Ostashcko is wearing the same hairstyle as Richard Spencer?
His former style looked quite more Russian….
Not usually impressed with Bridge, but sometimes he has his moments of lucidity:
How to make quick peace with North Korea: Let Lindsey Graham move to Seoul
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/411902-north-korea-military-war-trump/
“In a deeply disturbing interview at the weekend, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said preemptive US military action against North Korea is becoming “more likely.”
Nevertheless, the games continue.
A total of 12,000 personnel and over 230 military aircraft will participate.
Unfortunately, Graham has not been alone in uttering such reckless comments.
White House security adviser H.R. McMaster said Saturday that North Korea represents “the greatest immediate threat to the United States,” and the potential for war with the communist nation is “increasing every day.”
Meanwhile, America’s loose cannon in the UN, Ambassador Nikki Haley, told the UN Security Council “if war comes… the North Korean regime will be utterly destroyed.”
So much for diplomacy.
And herein lies the solution for bringing a swift end to the ratcheting up of hostilities between the United States and North Korea. Let those pugnacious people – Lindsey Graham, HR McMaster, and Nikki Haley, for example – who speak so freely and recklessly about war in the Korean Peninsula – be required to live and work in South Korea and Japan, precisely in range of North Korea’s missile launches, much like the rest of the local population.
That would change their hawkish tunes very fast, and we’d be much closer to the road of peace and diplomacy rather than bloodshed and militancy.”
Though personally hanging the ziosods for treason would be a more effective solution in the long run, putting them in harm’s way now is a great quick fix idea.