The Letter, published with permission for the Saker Blog
An acquaintance asked me by email what my predictions for the near future are (he’s from another country, and wanted to see what the perspective of an average Russian looks like). I sent him the attached points and this map.
I thought maybe it would be interesting to a wider English-speaking Western audience. This is by no means some fancy analysis piece by an expert, just a compilation of what I’ve read from different sources and my modest knowledge of history.
* Lvov and Lutsk regions will be annexed by Poland (marked on the map with the Polish flag). Almost a certainty – both Polish and Ukrainian officials made statements about “common land” and Poland already started to take over some administration functions there. The Head of the Russian External Intelligence Service made 2 or 3 public statements about it too, and he very rarely goes public. Poles will find the opportune moment to move in a military “peacekeeping force” to solidify their hold. This will be neither smooth nor bloodless because of history – Ukrainian Nazi collaborators performed ethnic cleansings there, killing up to 100000 ethnic Poles during WW2. Polish political leaders see this as a populist move to restore historical justice (it will work, too), Polish far-right groups see this as a huge unpaid blood debt, and Polish police and security services see modern Ukrainian neo-Nazis as big trouble to be eliminated (through thorough denazification or other means). They were fine with it as long as neo-Nazis were acting against Russia, but when borders solidify and it will be their territory to govern it will be another matter entirely. It’s not out of the question that all ex-Ukrainians will become second-class citizens, like Russians in Baltic states.
* Zakarpatye region of Ukraine will be annexed by Hungary (marked on the map with the Hungarian flag). Looks very probable, but I didn’t see Hungary making any definitive statements about it. Hungary has been steadily building its influence there since the Soviet Union broke up – supporting Hungarian schools, language, and culture, even going so far as issuing passports. Ukrainian neo-Nazis issued threats of ethnic violence because they want “Ukraine for Ukrainians”, which mandates a set of standards for everyone in Ukraine – Russophobia, language (Ukrainian, other languages are not allowed), “ethnic purity” (this stuff is disgusting to even type). This annexation will be pretty smooth and bloodless, like Crimea was, due to how thoroughly Hungary prepared the ground there. If there is any trouble it will be caused by Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Hopefully, Hungarian police and security services are up to the task to keep people safe there.
* Regions marked with the Russian flag will join Russian Federation, the process has already begun. A follow-up anti-terrorist operation by FSB and RosGuard has started as well because the current regime in Kiev (heavily influenced by US+UK governments and Ukrainian neo-Nazis) already started terrorist attacks there. Thankfully Russian security services have a lot of experience with this sort of thing (Chechnya, Syria).
The region in the bottom left, with a red exclamation point is a special one – on May 2, 2014 people protested in Odessa against neo-Nazis, burning the neo-Nazi flags. In response, neo-Nazis shipped their well-organized militia groups into the city, drove the protesters into a building, and set it on fire. 42 people died burning alive, shot, falling to death, or beaten to death. They’ve also killed 8 other protesters on the street. Ukrainian new government (heavily supported by the US) basically ignored it – police had orders to observe but not interfere, a lackluster investigation was started but never yielded any results, and neo-Nazis had support from local law enforcement. This was a pivotal moment in Ukrainian history – the neo-Nazis made a loud and bloody statement “our ideology is the law in Ukraine, we will kill anyone who disagrees”. There is a high symbolic value in taking the Odessa region, I want to see a memorial to this atrocity right in front of that building. Odessa city itself is (or was) very international (this is common for many warm-water ports around the globe actually, due to sea trade) – Jews, Russians, Ukrainians, and many other ethnicities.
* Regions marked with the Russian flag with a green “I” will either join Russian Federation fully or become independent, but integrated into the Russian and South-East Eurasian economies.
* Regions with “?” are up in the air. Maybe they will be divided between Russia/Poland/Hungary/Romania/Slovakia, maybe they will remain as a landlocked rump of “Ukraine”. In the latter case, the Russian government will (I strongly hope) insist on strict military neutrality of it, with non-aligned status (like Austria), observation posts, inspections, and denazification. The latter is not something Putin made up, it’s a lengthy and complex legal process that was done in Germany after WW2.
* The region circled with a green line is Transnistria (Pridnestrovie), complicated history there. I’ve read an argument that from a strictly legal standpoint, Transnistria is still the Soviet Union – I don’t think it has any real importance, just an interesting fact. Lots of Russians are there, in 1992 there was a military conflict – Moldova moved in forces to try and annex it as part of Moldova while Transnistria wanted to become independent. It’s an unresolved issue to this day. Ukraine has already made threats against Transnistria, so Russia needs a land bridge to it for security. Whether Transnistria will be annexed depends on Romania and US policy (Romania wants to annex Moldova).
* Some unclear number of Russian ethnic nationalist military groups (they are either not openly Nazi or using their rhetoric very carefully) made an appearance in Ukraine. Neither the Russian government nor the military wants to have anything to do with them, but they might make some form of demands afterward, as they have spilled their blood for the common cause.
Fortunately, ethnic nationalism didn’t develop into anything coherent or powerful in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. This is thanks to security services locking some of them up for crimes, putting others under strict surveillance, the Right movements disagreeing with each other or just fizzling out and many of the leaders of those movements being morons. To me, any kind of ethnic identitarianism is a stupid idea and a poison to human unity. Unfortunately, it’s an easy sell for some people – tell people they’re superior to others by the accident of birth and some of them will fight and die for that idea.
* Lithuanian government is doing something very dangerous – talking about cutting off Kaliningrad’s (a Russian exclave) trade logistics from the rest of Russia. Possibly with US approval/coordination.
* China will absorb and re-unify with Taiwan. The US is refusing to back down, they are encouraging the pro-US Taiwanese government to acquire new weapons and make ridiculous claims about Chinese planes flying near China being a threat to the US. So it seems to be a matter of finding an opportune moment.
* The US has to reform into a different state. This rabid dog that runs around the planet, building military bases everywhere, bombing everyone they want, funding and arming “good terrorists” is too dangerous to be accepted in this increasingly globalized world. Remember when that racist hag Madeleine Albright called the US “an indispensable nation” in 1998? Apart from sounding distinctly Hitleresque, the sinister implication is that US international policy considers other nations dispensable. Probably a good dose of old-fashioned Imperial racism in that thinking – kill the Indians/American Indians/Arabs/Russians/<ethnicities_different_from_us>, grab their resources. The US demonstrated this in practice by bombing Serbia in 1999, Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, and so on. The crazy thing about it is that a big part of the reason the US starts wars is that people make huge amounts of money on making and selling weapons, and with US lobbying laws (basically legalized corruption) they can push foreign policy decisions. I hope they can reform their country through some internal process that doesn’t involve starting yet another war, otherwise things could get real ugly. The thermonuclear ICBMs of today are orders of magnitude more powerful than what the US dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
* UK government since 1945 seems to be very closely aligned with US foreign policy (if not more aggressive, like Churchill’s “Operation Unthinkable” plans), so it will probably have to reform as well.
Looking at history, some form of globalism seems inevitable, humans just keep organizing into larger and larger groups. I do not want the global government to solidify under the auspices of current US policies though. Maybe going more regional and learning how to cooperate instead of waging wars for a while, before setting up some kind of a globalist deal on Earth, will be good for humanity. I like the way China expands its influence through trade and huge infrastructure projects in other countries.
Have you seen the administrative capital in Egypt they’re building? The thing’s on a massive scale. China didn’t bomb Egypt to get the contract either, which is a marked improvement over a lot of US (and the UK, let’s be honest) interactions with other countries for the past 300-odd years.
That concludes my opening remarks. Just kidding :)
Looks like everyone has a very skewed and apocalyptic view of others’ nations. Ukraine conflict will bog down to a standstill and most likely nothing will happen. But let’s not say anything is for certain, otherwise we’ll end up looking like Gonzalo Lira who famously that “no one over the age of 12 or with an IQ over 90 seriously believes that the Russians are going to invade anytime soon”. So stay humble.
We are glad you know. Did you ask Pompeo about this view? He seems to disagree with you.
And did you ask Klaus Schwab? He, too, disagrees with you (sadly).
@JS
Kissinger too seems to have “his own ideas” on how the situation will unfold in Ukraine, and he does not seem to take in consideration the Saker’s perspective….
It could get rather hot in Europe soon – as in 10000 degrees Centigrade hot, if current British defence Secretary (and well known anti-Putin, anti Russia “super-hawk”) Ben Wallace gets the British Prime Ministers job.
Ben Wallace is an outspoken advocate of direct military confrontation with Russia, and rose to infamy when he claimed the UK could, quote “kick Russias arse again” (referencing the 19th century Crimea War where the British defeated Russia in Crimea and took Sevastospol).
Wallace is a very, very dangerous, ex-military cold-war-warrior who has been fighting Russia in his mind all his life. Hed has promised previously to gift British Warships (with advanced air defence systems) and British MLRS (long range types) to Ukraine. If he gets the top job he would have the power to do this and more.
He was commissioned as an Officer in the Scots Guards (Army) and in the 1990s he saw service in Northern Ireland, Germany, Cyprus and Central America.
https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2022-07-07/who-is-ben-wallace-the-new-favourite-for-prime-minister
https://www.forces.net/news/duty-keep-people-safe-no-matter-pm-defence-secretary-says
Wallace risks his country for U$ profits. His term in office will be significantly shorter than BoJo’s, assuming that idiot has not reduced the Isles to a smouldering pile of rubble by then.
10000 degrees Centigrade hot —->>>yes, hope it get to that point, so that we can get rid of those monkeys.
Earthquake: “Ben Wallace is an outspoken advocate of direct military confrontation with Russia, and rose to infamy when he claimed the UK could, quote “kick Russias arse again””
Britain as a big power has collapsed even more heavily since early 1900 than China and India between 1800-1960 when following the economic reality of 2022.
Last year Britain consumed 148 million Mtoe energy while China 3652 Mtoe, USA 2123 Mtoe, India 927 Mtoe and Russia 811 Mtoe. In 1913 Britain was bigger producer than any European nation but now its real economy is hardly even half of Germany and energy consumption is now lower than that of France and near level of War er climate Italy.
We can follow what ever real economy production list to see how tiny Little Britain now is. Its aluminium production was not in list of countries with over 100 000 tons annually when China produced annually 34 000 000 tons. In steel production France and Spain produce twice as much, Germany almost 6 times, Russia 10 times more, India 16 times and China 145 times more than Britain.
Of course western nations when losing battle of real economy are spreading nonsense of “information technology” (mostly talking heads of MSN and fake virtual economy making money with money). The reality is that great power from east after taking hegemony of real economy production will take next steps to that sector of “economy” still dominated by Western vermits.
So what our western MSM and their average politician is trying to do is simply a species of boasting, akin to a man claiming he is in good shape cause his head is still on his shoulders while his arms and legs have been cut off.
Things were moving quickly at that point. IIRC Mr. Lira’s statement was made before _elensky announced his intention to develop nuclear weapons capability, which could be rapidly implemented. Russia had been preparing for any potential military conflict, knowing NATO was building up huge forces on its doorstep fully promoted by _elensky, but I think that unexpected announcement (along with the Russian Duma request to defend the Donbass due to the build-up of UA forces on the LOC) lit the fuse for the SMO by making Pres. Putin recognize the imminent existential threat.
I certainly didn’t expect the West-backed NATO to exploit Ukraine and Europe in a war of attrition for the purpose of ‘weakening’ Russia and asserting full-spectrum dominance, and I too had doubted at the time that Russia would intervene militarily. That desperate attempt esp. by Neocons who had gained control in the US, including the ongoing sanctions regime, is now indisputable and it was far from being rational – it was criminal in the extreme.
norecovery, adding to your points,
It was business as Usual
please take note of the obsession and insanity of the NeoCons and their NeoLiberal Interventionist partners in crime.
1) they orchestrated a violent coup in 2014 and turned Ukraine into their personal piggy bank for embezzlement, skimming contracts, and sharing cookies to celebrate the taking of the Pale of Settlement.
2) they ordered the non stop bombing of the DPR and LPR to provoke Russia, generate terror, and satisfy their bloodlust for dead goyim
3) they attempted to rig the US presidential election of 2016 but underestimated the populist revolt against Hillary the Warmonger, whose 2016 election talking points were Putin, Putin, Putin, Putin (to prepare the country for War with Russia)
4) they undermined the policies of a sitting President to prevent a rapprochement with Russia and ensure continuing war in the Ukraine and the Middle East (Russia-gate-Putin Interference in the Election; Ukraine-gate-quid-pro-quo for aide to Ukraine; White-Helmets-poison gas in Syria; Impeachment based on lies)
5) they stole an election in 2020 to secure a conflict with Russia, which they ignorantly assumed would be easy
6) they continue to prosecute and attempt to expand a war they cannot win;
7) they continue to sacrifice men, machinery and money for fun, profit, and the gradual elimination of goyim just like the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s
If there is any good news to this story, it is that the Election of Donald Trump gave Russia four more years to prepare it combined arms special military operation.
Russia was ready in 2014 and 2016, but the results of 2022 have been amazing except, possibly, for the EARLY miscalculation regarding Ukrainian support for the SMO and the total zombie-like indoctrination of large swathes of western Ukraine by the EU, NATO and the US
Thank you, well written.
A serious subject, but even a bit of humour at the end!
For the benefit of the author, actually the UK was NOT aligned with US foreign policy from 1945 to 1948, when the only truly socialist post-war government of the UK was led by Clement Attlee. At a time when enormous reconstruction after WWII was required, central planning was the best option. The NHS was founded in 1948, even though it may die in the 2020s after a sustained campaign to destroy it by global financial/political mafias. Large numbers of industries were nationalised in the 1945-1948 period, however the USA was not going to allow the UK to remain outside of Washington’s policy control for long and by the time the UK had its pseudo-independent nuclear capability and 13 years of Conservative rule in the 1950s and early 1960s, we were much closer to the Washington fold.
Harold Wilson metaphorically/diplomatically told the US President to ‘go do one’ when refusing to join the Vietnam farce. His reward was the UK security services trying to organise a coup d’etat.
However, ever since Mrs Thatcher came into office, the UK has been a slave-like lapdog to US interests, never refusing to join in with America’s overseas wars (none of which ever threatened UK national security), the City of London and Wall Street have become joined at the hip (as have all the Security Services, which act as an unaccountable global criminal mafia across all the Five Eyes nations).
The reality of the UK position is that the total loss of empire brought diminution of financial firepower, but not the requisite humility in positions of unaccountable power to embrace the new reality. There is currently a Mass Delusionary Mental Health Defect Syndrome going around London’s various seats of power and influence, with literally hundreds of off with the fairies incompetents spouting claptrap that any semi-intelligent 14 year old would laugh at in withering contempt. What is more amazing is that it is clearly being spoken with the full backing of the Washington lunatics.
Very interesting bit about 1945-1948 years. I didn’t know that, thank you.
”For the benefit of the author, actually the UK was NOT aligned with US foreign policy from 1945 to 1948, when the only truly socialist post-war government of the UK was led by Clement Attlee. At a time when enormous reconstruction after WWII was required, central planning was the best option.”
With respect the British (Labour) government was involved, with their American masters of course, in the Greek Civil War of 1946-49 at the behest of the anti-communist Greek state. But this was to be expected. In the final analysis Labour governments – Labour or Conservative – are invariably the servants of imperialism, always were, always will be.
Just like the United States
Democrat vs Republican.
United Kingdom, Labour versus Conservative
Two Heads of the Same Snake (Private Central Bank Snake)
The people who own the Bank of England own Great Britain and the USA and US Federal Reserve plus most o f the central banks around the world. All controlled by the BIS (Bank of Intl Settlements).
They people have created most of the wars for the past 400 years for profit. The UK and USA have fake kabuki political parties. The UK even more so. Controlled fake opposition.
Usa became the global super power because the sociopaths. Sorry sozi. Sorry socialists. Lost their power with fdr death and the returning gi’s built America power house using free market capitalism because they were free men with will and guns.
Socialism causes poverty and dictatorships and no decent informed human supports it
It is not really about Russia or Poland.
Ukraine will continue to shrink until some central authority stands up that can act as a safe neighbour to Russia, Poland and most of all those people in Russian and other acquired lands.
Until that happens there is no one to negotiate with, no guarantee of further shelling of Russin/Polish protected civilians, and no end to US/UK + Nazi control.
Until that happens Russia can only grab more land to protect what it has.
For all its talk of nationalism and independence what we are seeing is an absence of a Ukrainian nation.
Ukraine ceased to exist in 2014. It got taken over by the Cookie Monster [Nuland] for it’s puppet masters [US Deep State] (corporate cartel)].
agreed on most of the map predictions. odd that the annexing countries would even want the annexed regions, though. they bitch about taking in syrian refugees but are fine with the anchors of various hick ukie populations around their necks. at least the presence of neo-pagan scum right “nazis” will expose the supposed threat of “sharia law/caliphate in the west” for the moronic tribalism it always was. there are actual terrorist takfiri idiots who pull stunts like the occasional beheading but at least you can spot them from a distance. other than tell-tale “totenkopf” or black sun tattoos the average ukie SS fetishist is still a “white” person who can move about without arousing too much suspicion.
tl; dr keep an eye on onion sites selling “near mint” javelins.
Not until the Russians have killed off every UkieNazi and the fighting has ended will the Poles move on Galicia.
The Jackal of Europe has its reputation to defend.
The author wrote:
Regions with “?” are up in the air. Maybe they will be divided between Russia/Poland/Hungary/Romania/Slovakia, maybe they will remain as a landlocked rump of “Ukraine”.
The landlocked rump of Ukraine is still too large. The country of Austria after WW1 was made deliberately small in order to be manageable and to keep it from being a “threat” to any neighboring country.
If Poland enlarges because the western regions of the Ukraine were historically Polish, then using the same argument, wouldn’t Germany have a right to claim the western regions of Poland? Would the eastern borders of Poland and Romania simply revert to the year 1938?
Right, bad phrasing on my part – I meant those options are open for each one, not all of them as a group. As in “maybe only Kiev Oblast will remain as Ukraine”.
No, Kiev must not remain in Ukraine. Look at top left of the map. The new border will go straight North-South and be short. Russia to the right, squabble to the left.
And Germany wanting back Kaliningrad/Königsberg? You can bet the Anglo-fascists are thinking about this plan.
Here’s a regional outline:
Eurasia:
Lisbon to Vladivostok, to include The ‘stans, Iran, England, Scotland, Ireland, The Balkans, The Baltics, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey, and Mongolia — under the protection of Moscow;
Asia:
China, Oceana to Hokkaido, Pakistan, and Korea — under the protection of Beijing;
South Asia:
India, Southeast Asia, and The Malay Peninsula — under the protection of New Delhi;
Afro-Arabia:
The Arabian Peninsula and Sub-Saharan Africa, to include The Levant, Egypt, and Libya — under the joint protection of Cairo, Jerusalem, and Nairobi;
The Americas:
North, Central, and South, The Caribbean — under the joint protection of Mexico City, Brazilia, and Washington, D.C.
under the protection of New Delhi;
India cannot even protect its own citizens
just ask the muslims, sikhs, jains, dalits and tribal communities
we are all waiting for India to assume a position of international leadership
unfortunately
real issues of racism, bigotry, classism, caste divisions, and incessant self-adulation will never let it happen
Globalism is commercial, it is pure business and it is selling a false idea of unity. What is needed is an international community in which we are all equal, which is not allowed by the racism of white Europeans wherever they take control even if it is so as far away as Chile, where they continue to kill Mapuches.
What is at stake in today’s world is that, no more white colonialism as a superior race imposing its economic privileges on those who are not.
And do not say that there is no racism because in any circumstance the first thing that is analyzed is whether it is white or not.
Liborio Guaso, there is two or three real “mapuches” here in Chile. The others are “mapuches” in the Soros way. I mean they are useful idiots for a “color revolution”.
Most people in Chile are a mix of indians or natives and europeans mostly from Spain.
Regards.
I don’t care for the division of Ukraine. Russia should take it all and turn it into a neutral nation without nukes and Nazi forces. The USA is a divider not Russia so let everyone live in Ukraine peacefully.
That would be my thought as well, though it would be for the people who are living through all this to decide, in my opinion. I could see those areas having a vote, as did Crimea and the two oblasts, to change allegiance. That would be what Putin originally had advocated. But I’m not a participant here, just an observer.
“Romania wants to annex Moldova”
Not really. If Romania will reunite with Republic of Moldova, which is in fact the eastern half of the Romanian populated historical principality of Moldova, it will be via a referendum.
I am amused to see how Russia is keen to reclaim historical Russian lands, but is not that understanding about all the lands taken from others and given to Ukraine. There is no word about the now famous Snakes Island from the Black Sea, which was taken from Romania in 1948, or Budjak, in Southern Moldova, which was also part of principality of Moldova & Romania. You can keep Transnistria.
“The latter (denazification) is not something Putin made up, it’s a lengthy and complex legal process that was done in Germany after WW2.”
This piece helps me fill in some blanks adding context and flavor to the whole Ukraine topic.
As the victors, or inflictors of mayhem, we discard historical incidents that those directly affected, can never live down. The insights into the Poland-Ukraine-Russia vendettas helps those, such as myself, less academically inclined, to understand the whole story.
To me the Nazi destruction of infrastructure as they are booted out of an area speaks to their true nature. It screams; we won’t be back and we won’t be missed.
The CCP won’t take Taiwan.
The moat is 120km wide. The ROC make chips which are too valuable to the US to allow the CCP to steal them (like they stole everything else). The ROC has lots of missiles that can reach Beijing. The US Navy is itching to try out its new Gerald Ford class carriers.
The PRC economy will collapse anyway within the next couple of years and go into a 20 year stagnation. Then demographic collapse will destabilise the country. This is because, due to the evil Chinese practice of murdering female babies, there is an imbalance between males and females and not enough women to maintain the breeding ratio. The mainland Chinese population will decline contributing to the economic collapse and this will eventually bring about the end of the CCP.
Get real mate
The ‘navy’ can’t even get its one GF carrier’s lifts or catapults to work etc. Totally delusional – or are you a Surrealist?
Taiwan is already a part of China so there is no need to take it.
This is accepted by China, Taiwan and the US.
SO, you are correct. No need for China to take Taiwan.
If USuk lackey Poland ditches NATO, Russia might be open to talks with the scum.
Anything else is fantasy, including much of this.
At a minimum I think Russia should include all the land W. of the long river running from N. to S., that is just a very clear and defensible boundary/border.
I am not sure Hungary can take whole Zakarpatye. There is some Hungarian minority but maybe 85% of the population are Slavic. Like Ruthenians (Rusins), Huculs, Ukraininans etc. Yes, this region was historically part of the Hungarian Kingdom for some 1000 years but we are not in the times of kingdom anymore. Especially not in Eastern and Central Europe. The language diference between Hungarian and Slavic is too big.
A useful future conceptual map of the world could be organized in this style:
Green Flag: Reliable electrical service exists
Yellow Flag: Intermittent service
Black Flag: Service non-existent
US and EU, and other Nazi-operated regions will probably become entirely black flagged, unless someone in charge of the collective west, somehow, and soon, goes to the negotiating table in good faith.
(Please do not laugh. Please pray for peaceful mutual settlement instead.)
No electricity means no military, no command, no operation centers, no COG.
No electricity means no refrigeration and no transportation, and therefore no food.
No electricity means no more civility nor civilization. Just slums, salvage and ruins.
So be it.
First of all, Poland has no money for such endeavors. Second, Poland is to suffer net losses, not any gains here whatsoever. Third, the banderites would tear them apart, if they tried to seize even a cm of their banderaland.
Can anyone recommend the best critical takedown of francis fukuyama? Of the hubris of the liberal globalist utopians etc?
“US eyes direct war with Russia – Belarus”
The US wants to launch attacks from Poland and the Baltic states, military intelligence chief claimed.
The US is making plans for a direct war against Russia and its ally Belarus, the head of Belarusian military intelligence warned on Thursday. The scenario is becoming more likely as the proxy war in Ukraine and other ways to hurt the two nations are failing, he claimed.
https://www.rt.com/russia/558573-belarus-intelligence-war-poland/
Thanks for this. :o)
This does not sound like an analysis but rather like a repitition of what everyone in one camp is wishing for right now. I would stay more humble in my predictions as to what could be the outcome of this conflict. Surely, Russia will take a bigger part of Ukraine the longer the conflict drags on, but that Poland and Hungary will clip off some of the western regions is not a certainty. Belarus repeated that in the event of Poland entering Ukraine, Belarussian forces will intervene. The author seems to have ignored that possibility.
“Whether Transnistria will be annexed depends on Romania and US policy (Romania wants to annex Moldova).”
I don’t think that the using “annex” is correct, I would say reunite. This cannot be done over night there are several realistic reasons for that.
1. We(Romania and Moldova) did not reach the level of institutional compatibility required by a real, not administrative unification.
2. Romania is a very centralized state with a low administrative performance. Adding Moldova in the current setup it will be a nightmare.
3. Financially speaking, RO is not able to support Moldova development for the time being and in the foreseeable future.
Some background info.
When speaking about reunification, one has to keep in mind that since 2000, Romania started to grant citizenship for Moldova citizens. Until 2021 642.149 out of 786.546 requests were approved. Estimated population of Moldova is 4 million. The logic of reunification is that we(RO) have some perspectives to offer to our brothers and sisters from Moldova(see above my opinion on perspectives).
There is a frozen conflict with Transnistria and this is a big “no go” as long as we are members of EU. RO public opinion does not care very much about Transnistria, we are attached to the borders of 15th-16th century Moldova(Stephen the Great https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moldova_Stefan_cel_Mare.png) when the fortifications were buing built on the river Dniestr.
We have a reasonably good experience in dealing with minority rights especially the Hungarian one(permanent parlamentary presence and quasi permanent and significant presence in government). The general mood in the population is not xenophobic(in fact we have a president of German origin and a couple of years ago we almost had a prime minister of Turkish origin; both are Romanian citiziens and of course, they speak also Romanian). Integrating the important Russian community from Moldova should not be a great challenge if we apply the same rules but I’m afraid that it is not our call for the time being as we are integrated in large politico- economico-military structures which are not prepared at this moment for such step eve if the ideal conditions are met.
Hi, BlackSeaRam
I have noticed that you are the one of a group of Romanians discussing Moldova/Transnistria historics and current situation.
All of you have one thing in common. You are talking reunification and wishing for it, but you have forgotten why Moldova/Transnistria is not a part of Romania.
It is because you wore at the loosing side in WW2. And, i want to add, you are on the wrong side again.
So, i am afraid, that you Romanians, instead looking for reunification, should expect some deunification i the future.
To my defence, i would like to add, that is not something i wish to happen.
Rumours:
Boris Johnson is being touted as new secretary general of nato from august (election then). It makes sense, his departure from PM post was planned 6 months ago. Ties in to twitter rumours that war will start in September. If that were to happen it has to be a push into Western Ukraine and the recent provocations around Kalingrad might be kept simmering until the rapid reaction force ready in eastern europe. They just need to manufacture an incident that would allow them to claim defensive operation. And Boris would love the role’s International audience, defending our values, democracy and the rules based order:)
All rumours.
Global government is a bad idea and impossible with higher EROEI cost (energy returned on energy invested). The age of cheap fuel is past, of parts sent to China for assembly and sent back again cheaply. Of cheap lettuce from China instead of locally-grown produce. The future is local. Blood is thicker than water and having a reasonably homogenous population is clearly preferable. Ethnic culture is like food: you can live on 10-20% spices but otherwise you live on meat and potatoes. Gotta have some ethnic spice and diversity but not too much.
The war in Ukraine will be short, not long.
Come 2023 — or even before – Europeans will no longer withstand the tremendous burden that their ´Russian sanctions´ bear upon themselves, not Russia.
Everybody says the Ukraine war will be long. But from my down-to-earth perspective starving and freezing to death defy the very strict rules of common sense. And this is bound to happen very soon. Current cheap politicking stops in its tracks right at the physical limit which light and uncommitted consumer economies will not ever allow to be crossed. Public opinion accepts pretty much “whatever” as long as the political class does not compromise its livelihood and well-being. Come 2023 — or even before that — the imposed “Russian sanctions” would actually be tremendous unbearable sanctions on EU survival basics. Winter is coming and without Russian energy, Russian food, and Russian produce at large quite simply the EU cannot survive. Then it´d be Europeans themselves who would default and surrender making this war short, not anyone else. And that would be the end of the Anglo-Saxon plans and EU-leadership intentions, supplies, mercenaries and “Ukrainian cannon fodder” + “assigned roles” and savvy analysis from important political-military gurus. No European support would necessarily and instantly mean the end of the Ukraine war. Russia would win by default as never in its history have Europeans depended so much strictly from Russian produce that very simply cannot stop coming in. Last time around it was only French and German armies that suffered famine and freezing. Let´s ask Wehrmacht Grand Field Marshall General von Paulus… or Napoleon himself for that matter. Now it´d be all the 800 million starving and freezing Europeans with massive migrations democratically spread out everywhere.
NATO knows this. So another possibility is that the necessarily short Ukraine war goes nuclear, be it because there is no other way for NATO to possibly win or because Russia is once again forced to attack due to constantly-repeated large-caliber direct NATO-orchestrated threats. More on both possibilities later, and even a third regarding Europe´s further vassalization and possible rape by Anglo-Saxons. Either way, any way – it´s worth repeating – the Ukraine war will be short.
“Hopefully, Hungarian police and security services are up to the task to keep people safe there.”
Nope.
Hungarian security/police forces are not up to the task in Hungary proper(as we speak).
They are as hemmed in by the liberaleese as their counterparts anywhere in the “west”. Hungary has a huge and effective 5th column built in. They are inundated by jews in all the institutions, industry and finance. One name – soros györgy. That one. Go back to the golden dayz of the bolsheviks and search for participation of hungarian jews as ideologues. Go and search for hungarian jews in the Manhatten project.
There is a joke: Hey ladies and gents, as long as we are all in this research facility locked in together – we might as well speak Hungarian.
Add miserable pay. Cops are exiting the field. Corruption is/was built in.
That whole area of Hungary(within Hun. and Transcarpathia) is teeming with gypsies. Basically an ethnic criminal cartel par excellence.
Transcarpathia is the smallest of the small slivers of the territorial/ethnic claims they have over ALL their neighbors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYDo5c4-OIY
The vid is erroneous, but you get an idea of the territories involved.
So You know. Sorry.
You think Ukraine is a powderkeg???
Hungary is holding on by the fingernails on account of it`s undecipherable culture and language.
I’m of the opinion that many Russian and Russian speaking Ukrainians lost their lives senselessly to have to give up the territory of the aggressors.
If the lands hypothetically get returned to Poland and Hungary, it would be reasonable to expect that Russia signs a legally binding agreement with P&H that the territories must remain militarily neutral.
We all know that agreements are broken by the USUKEUNATO factions however, Russia could continue to engage in SMOs should the agreement get broken. This time the Russians will not be so careful about minimizing losses of Russian speaking people on said territories.
As a Pole I like the recent Russian military doctrine to attack first the main warmongers not their vassals like Poland. I like the recent Russian statement of booming London. They got crazy!!!. Let say it strait no one in Poland want to die for the Wall Street. The Wall Street is going down and China and Russia will win but wounded beast from Jeckyll Island may do a lot of harm in this world. Poland always has been played against Russia in the past. The Polish uprisings 1830, 1863, 1914 against Russia have been financed by City of London Corporation. This world game always been about colonisation. After 1989 Eastern Europe has been colonised by the West but in a mean time Great China appeared with its New Silk Route project. Anglo Saxon with their naval dominance went crazy and try to spoil it as soon as possible. Poland wants to be a important part of it but not as a part of Germany colony as Germany and Russia want. There is fight between Angloxon and German colonialism the first one seems to win. Poland and Ukraine are both the victims of Western colonialism. Western colonialism is the wind lose policy but China offers win win policy which is better for Poland. The problem for Easten Europe an Poland in particular is German colonialism and their project from 1915 called Mitteleuropa. Misfortunetely Russia supports it.
Russia has been puppy of Germany for a long time in the past. Empress Katherine Ii has been Prussian her husband knucklehead Peter III both were born in Germany. She brought with her German troops and rule Russia in brutal way. Prussia were set on foot and financed by British and City of London Corporation. Soviet Russia were set on foot and financed by Germans and Wall Street bankers. The real Putin serve as a KGB officer in East Germany and has been conscripted to MI6.
No pls no more global uber corrupt psychopathic, expensive and harmful institutions. National sovereignty (that is, political decentralization) is a guarantee for freedom.